@nntaleb Ms @Rania_Masri I wonder if they subjected you to some middle-school elementary reasoning test before you became “professor”? The Lebanese ministry is NOT preventing foreigners taking jobs that the Lebanese don’t wants to perform. @RaniaKhalek https://twitter.com/rania_masri/status/1152239325972783105?s=20 Permalink 10:16 AM – 19 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there are 7 severe logical fallacies in your response (I mean severe, severe defects in reasoning). Can you find at least one? Give it a try. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1152226133976518658 Permalink 8:12 AM – 19 Jul 2019
@spyrosmakrid The M4 Competition ended the long forecasting winter A description of the M4, its major findings/conclusions and detail Tables are available in https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.04.014 Preparations for the M5 that will use high frequency/hierarchical data have started, scientific advisor NN Taleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ExyziTzJ2d”> pic.twitter.com/ExyziTzJ2d Permalink 6:54 AM – 19 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Oppa! https://twitter.com/creek_mudd/status/1152190401664704512 Permalink 5:57 AM – 19 Jul 2019
@davidboxenhorn I have disagreed @nntaleb in the past for being too harsh with Pinker, because it seemed to me that Pinker was wrong but not dishonest. I have now revised my opinion Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019
@davidboxenhorn An ethical person does not regret telling the truth in a court of law, even when a bad person benefits from it. This is so important that it’s one of the Ten Commandments Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019
@davidboxenhorn I read Pinker’s letter of defense (linked) and was disgusted. Not because he did a favor for a friend, and not because contributed to Epstein’s defense, but because he now regrets it https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2019/07/12/tarring-steve-pinker-and-others-with-jeffrey-epstein/ https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1150780000108457992 Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, please go to the UN in NY and shout blames at Iran, Russia, Belarus, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, China, Turkey, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, France, Panama, Romania, Thailand, CH, HK, Malaysia, Mexico, Colombia, Liberia, Ethiopia… for discrimination against foreigners. Permalink 4:55 AM – 19 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there is nothing xenophobic about a government monitoring labor permits from noncitizens. It is downright DISHONEST to accuse the Lebanese government of xenophobia (partic. when swamped with noncitizens displacing locals) and NOT accuse every other government. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1152174536118415360 Permalink 4:36 AM – 19 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there is nothing xenophobic about a government monitoring labor permits from noncitizens. It is downright DISHONEST to accuse the Lebanese government of xenophobia (partic. when swamped with noncitizens displacing locals) and NOT accuse every other government. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1152174536118415360 Permalink 4:36 AM – 19 Jul 2019
@QuintusCurtius The Roman dictator Sulla composed his own epitaph, which was: “No friend ever served me, and no enemy ever wronged me, whom I have not repaid in full.” There is a reason why he was called Sulla Felix, or Sulla the Happy. Permalink 10:21 PM – 18 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Twitter, @twitter, the new Twitter is horrible. Please give us back the old one. Permalink 4:17 PM – 18 Jul 2019
@mikeandallie (1/5 ish) I missed this tweet yesterday, but thankfully it showed up in my feed today thanks to a retweet from @financequant . The topic of the paper is the question a options trader friend asked me for help on 20+ years ago. It is amazingly cool to see the problem solved. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1151571849685454850 Permalink 10:28 AM – 18 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Intellectual fraud. https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/1151617534845698049 Permalink 9:56 AM – 18 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Good news about the American justice system. It corrects itself. Epstein gamed it before with his part time “prison” sentence, something the poor could not afford. He used detectives to (legally) expose the private lives of his witnesses. 000s of offenders cannot afford bail. https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1151877502178123777 Permalink 9:05 AM – 18 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Improved (the LTCM blow up story) pic.twitter.com/l3K0ozQsu7 Permalink 7:38 AM – 18 Jul 2019
@nntaleb BTW, this was explained 20 years ago in Fooled By Randomness but few got the exact point then. People are surprised to discover that the Incerto has a mathematical backbone. pic.twitter.com/hP4uVGjbeK Permalink 6:59 AM – 18 Jul 2019
@nntaleb EPISTEMOLOGY OF PROBABILITY Asymmetry of inference: How to reject the Gaussian in favor of a power law. Easier than you think. From a Quiz posted here. Added to my new book https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0opH4pHgSa”> pic.twitter.com/0opH4pHgSa Permalink 6:04 AM – 18 Jul 2019
@TheBillfish Mr. Taleb is 100% right. Execs at publicly traded companies are the equivalent of Communist Party Members, blindly and ruthlessly, doing what they are told to protect their station in life. So few add any value at all, and even fewer bring any innovation. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1151660033891024896 Permalink 5:16 AM – 18 Jul 2019
@nntaleb روحي و روحك يا روحي روحين بروح ان راحت روحك يا روحي روحي بتروح Permalink 4:19 AM – 18 Jul 2019
@nntaleb https://twitter.com/jonboguth/status/1151665693890359297?s=20 Permalink 6:45 PM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Practically, any CEO who “rose through the ranks” is competent at being an actor. No exception. Entrepreneur or nothing. https://twitter.com/SOhimor/status/1151663542715723776?s=20 Permalink 6:35 PM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Anyone who does not distinguish between wealth generation via risk taking and rent-seeking will be blocked here. CEOs are rent seekers –so are B-School types. Innovators and entrepreneurs are risk-takers. Small business owners are risk-takers. We need risk takers. #Skininthegame Permalink 6:08 PM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb And year after year the rich are different. #ergodocity https://twitter.com/randpaul/status/1151534219027460097 Permalink 5:12 PM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb 3) Solution and methodology pic.twitter.com/wmkNz6MeUR Permalink 3:29 PM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb 2) SIMILAR PROBLEM: Someone tells you he saw a human 3 meter tall. What is the probability of the person being delusional (and no such thing as a 3m human) vs the probability of the person being sane and indeed there is a 3m human. Wittgenstein’s ruler, again, but in math form. Permalink 3:28 PM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb You can inverse the prior to a breakeven point. Permalink 1:11 PM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Let’s revisit the QUIZ more formally (I am adding it to my next book). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1003029601625485312 Permalink 12:51 PM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb I can curse on Twitter but never on the page and never never inside my library(ies), simple separation holy/profane. You need separations holy/profane. #Lindy https://twitter.com/JT_ZLC/status/1151576128081006592 Permalink 12:39 PM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Talking skin in the game: the above pricing is what I have done heuristically, not formally, all my career in option trading. Every single person who held that “tails are expensive” have blown up (LTCM, Niederhoffer, bankers and other idiots) We just formalized & made public. Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Great day, finished the paper on option pricing under power laws. Mother of all results. Shows how tails are underpriced, EVEN now, how theories that tails are “expensive” are by sub-imbeciles. PLEASE TRY TO DEBUNK PAPER (but politely). https://www.academia.edu/39149471/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/pzzXmvRu9z”> pic.twitter.com/pzzXmvRu9z Permalink 12:18 PM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb To understand non-interventionism and skin in the game in international affairs, and what it has to do with multiscale localism https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Eg8vssypvI”> pic.twitter.com/Eg8vssypvI Permalink 12:08 PM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntalebbot “You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Your political opinion has no value if you don’t try to act closer to a judge than to an advocate. Your political opinion has no value if you are an unconditional supporter or detractor of a president. Gabish? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica Permalink 11:10 AM – 17 Jul 2019
@CliffordAsness Nassim wouldn’t block me. He doesn’t block you for being wrong, which I might often be, but for being dishonest. Permalink 10:53 AM – 17 Jul 2019
@DanielLMcAdams If I were the neocons I’d resign in protest!! Time to go, boys! https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/17/rand-paul-iran-talks-donald-trump-1418075 Permalink 10:45 AM – 17 Jul 2019
@TalebWisdom “The ancient Mediterranean : before monotheism, people changed and exchanged rites and gods as we do with ethnic food.” – @nntaleb Permalink 7:16 AM – 17 Jul 2019
@encrier Today is the feast day of Saint Marina the Monk, or Marinos, a Lebanese saint and Patron Saint of Amiun in Northern Phoenicia (@nntaleb). She is venerated by Roman Catholics, Greek Orthodox, Maronites and Copts. May her story be an inspiration to those who read it. pic.twitter.com/JntHGmHep0 Permalink 1:12 AM – 17 Jul 2019
@nntaleb But of course the map has mistakes. There were Phoenician colonies in Provence (Ramatuelle= רמת אל, possibly Marseilles ), Ionia (Miletus). Also note the Punic settlements in the South Med all the way to Spain, a route taken by the “Arabic” language, picked up for similarity Permalink 2:07 PM – 16 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Interesting for those of us who are both. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1150824855329288192 Permalink 1:00 PM – 16 Jul 2019
@TalebWisdom “The rationalist imagines an imbecile-free society; the empiricist an imbecile-proof one, or even better, a rationalist-proof one.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 11:20 AM – 16 Jul 2019
@nntaleb It does not mean you can’t criticize a system; it means you can’t go after the very foundations of the system that got you there –the Godel-Popper rule. Some minorities have minority rules. https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15?source=post_stats_page————————— Permalink 8:14 AM – 16 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Friends, any questions not covered in Principia Politica? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ixwVWivh8s”> pic.twitter.com/ixwVWivh8s Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Jul 2019
@TalebWisdom “You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #yoga Permalink 7:24 AM – 16 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Even in Technical Schools, administrators have degrees in “Education” hence indocrination & propaganda. These “education experts” are taking over universities & largely responsible for the rise in costs. Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Ideas of expropriation are present among educators as they are prone to social envy. They frequent the rich & feel “I am smart why I am not rich” yet have NO hope of making it on their own. It is therefore natural they indoctrinate our children. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 Permalink 5:24 AM – 16 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Before listening to Omar & Tlaib, consider than their parents chose to find REFUGE in the US, not another country. It’s a nonrandom choice. Illegals are crossing borders in ONE direction. I myself came to America because of its properties. Preserving them is my duty. Permalink 5:01 AM – 16 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Society is being destroyed by schools and college teachers. Your children are indocrinated by people who are doing what they are doing because of their limited intellect and practical skills. And the costs TO YOU of such indocrination are ballooning. https://twitter.com/professorf/status/1150916425868910593 Permalink 5:20 PM – 15 Jul 2019
@RandPaul Proud that @realDonaldTrump and I argued with you against endless wars! @POTUS made it clear to all of us at the table, we are getting out of the Middle East quagmire. We’ve been there too long. Time to bring our troops home. https://twitter.com/lindseygrahamsc/status/1150542489549336576 Permalink 9:59 AM – 15 Jul 2019
@nntaleb MATH PROBLEM DU JOUR In honor of Alexander B. who passed a year ago last week by @SamuelGWalters cc:@SvetlanaBogom13 https://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/1142642280387342336 Permalink 9:42 AM – 15 Jul 2019
@Jeffrey_the2nd “My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like “recognition” and “credit” warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry.” @nntaleb Permalink 9:17 AM – 15 Jul 2019
@nntaleb 1) Steven Pinker misrepresented his meeting with me. I merely exchanged email & trivialities. There was NO technical discussion. So you can take with grain of salt what he says abt #epstein. Besides never diss pple who hosted you (dinner, plane). pic.twitter.com/62fOjUyZRG Permalink 7:51 AM – 15 Jul 2019
@MarkDice YouTube just demonetized my video about my trip to the White House! It was approved last night, and then as soon as it was published, it was demonetized. Really @TeamYouTube? C’mon. What a joke. pic.twitter.com/6pItapZt98 Permalink 7:13 AM – 15 Jul 2019
@LebaneseAlefBet ܒܬܰܥܪܶܦ݂ ܬܶܩܪܐ ܗܰܝܕܰܐ ܠ ܟ݂ܰܛ؟ Bta3ref teqra hayda l 5at? ܐ ܒ ܓ ܕ #ܐܬ Permalink 6:31 AM – 15 Jul 2019
@nntaleb I am nearly certain she is vegetarian, maybe even vegan. https://www.thedailybeast.com/lashana-lynch-will-play-first-female-007-in-new-james-bond-movie-report?source=twitter&via=desktop via @thedailybeast Permalink 5:46 PM – 14 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Never never compromise. Say it the way it is. Permalink 3:51 PM – 14 Jul 2019
@nntaleb No. It’s not by arguing with “kindness & care” that you break academic mafias, criminal organizations, impostors (psychologists) & lobbying groups. It is by exposing them, making their lives miserable & targeting their audience. Never never argue with a paid BS vendor. Gabish? https://twitter.com/learnfromerror/status/1150287002027397120 Permalink 2:33 PM – 14 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Unlike correlation, Mutual Information scales to noise. Shows how correlation of .63 is half the information of .795! pic.twitter.com/XJjHmhk9pQ Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Jul 2019
@nntaleb As to language: stop the intellectual fraud. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c?source=post_stats_page————————— Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Some philology: Ehden does not come from Paradise or Gan Eden with a (ע), but from Adon (same root as Adonis). pic.twitter.com/QrlP71tZ6q Permalink 10:19 AM – 14 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Food is Lebanon is East Med not “Arab” Traditional dress in Lebanon is East Med/Balkan not “Arab” Music in Lebanon is East Med not “Arab” Genetics in Leb are East Med not “Arab” Language in Leb is NOT mutually understandable w/Class “Arabic” When will this Arabist fraud stop? pic.twitter.com/GQeueGbOmv Permalink 9:53 AM – 14 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Practically, your excellency @EUAmbLebanon, NO village in Lebanon has an Arabic name. Ehden is from Aramaic. So are ALL other villages in the North, with the exception of a few Greco-Roman names. Let’s stop this Arabism fraud. https://twitter.com/EUAmbLebanon/status/1150315616735301632 Permalink 9:32 AM – 14 Jul 2019
@bmiloy We were observing the overlap between #RWRI crowd and @SS_strength crowd. I got to SS via @nntaleb; Grant got to Antifragile via @CoachRippetoe. The cultures attract: no-nonsense and no tolerance for BS. Permalink 4:43 PM – 13 Jul 2019
@nntaleb This is the very definition of anachronistic bigoteering, a violation of the code of political expression, in Principia Politica. Soon we will ban every document written between the emergence of writing in Sumer and the Obama presidency as tainded with “prejudice”. https://twitter.com/AyannaPressley/status/1146788737923407872 Permalink 12:42 PM – 13 Jul 2019
@SteveLaudig @nntaleb https://www.psychologicalscience.org/publications/observer/obsonline/textbook-analysis-uncovers-erroneous-explanations-of-statistical-significance.html?utm_source=APS+Emails&utm_campaign=7b5b70fee3-PSU_071219&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d2c7283f04-7b5b70fee3-62670051 Permalink 11:33 AM – 13 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Something to thicken the plot for @Safaitic: Did Semitic languages go to Ethiopia from Eurasia/the Levant? Ethiopia is clearly a back migration, and a recent one! pic.twitter.com/VPZkLwcWan Permalink 11:33 AM – 13 Jul 2019
@otrasenda_AC Thank you Maestro, since you started with the IQ debunking I stop using correlación, now using Mutual Information. I’ve been suspecting that correlation had a lot of issues but you out it Crystal clear Permalink 9:45 AM – 13 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Not how markets work. If the stock price surged on the news, it means the price (which had been pricing-in the information way before the announcement) was embedding the expectation of a more severe fine. https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1149943366848843777 Permalink 8:24 AM – 13 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Separate people into 2 categories: prostitutes vs. those who do things for love, like Maestro B. did math for love. Academics are mostly prostitutes working for rank, metrics, prestige, etc. Or playing the system a la @sapinker — @MarcosCarreira helped & wrote an epilogue. Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Jul 2019
@nntaleb GENETICS (PROBABILITY) DU JOUR Points that appear equidistant in PCAs the way they are presented should not be! It you translate into Mutual information, you get a different story. A correlation of .5 is a lot closer to .4 than it is to .6 ! pic.twitter.com/XKcDeujOdR Permalink 6:42 AM – 13 Jul 2019
@EastMedMonitor Nice one answering NeoOttoman false education…. I wonder what % of “Turks” in Turkey has originated from the Mongol invaders? The rest are islamized Christian population! Do the Turks dare to check if their “history” is substantiated by genetics science?@nntaleb any comments? https://twitter.com/pan_naxos/status/1149039774780579840 Permalink 6:01 AM – 13 Jul 2019
@EastMedMonitor My comment is not to prove anything nationalistic but to say that the people wish good neibourhood relations,peace and stability and basically we are one race genetically in #EastMed .Prejudice,religion and false education turns one against the other Permalink 6:01 AM – 13 Jul 2019
@nntaleb 2/ Maestro B. lived for math, in a nonacademic way. He had a hearing problem & left academia to do math. Luckily he was close to finishing the book compiling the twitter probability riddles. The book is now finished; to be published thanks to @WolframResearch Pict 2 w before. pic.twitter.com/VxmR5q2Dxg Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Jul 2019
@nntaleb A YEAR WITHOUT MAESTRO ALEXANDER B. One Saturday morning, last July when I opened Twitter to engage Maestro Alexander Bogomolny, @CutTheKnotMath, I received a DM from his son saying he was no longer with us. Maestro had built a yuuugely motivated community around his math. Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Never complain about your enemies. You can insult them, anger them, expose them, but never whine about them. Push them to complain about you. Permalink 4:52 AM – 13 Jul 2019
@spyrosmakrid Is there a better way to predict the next economic downturn? (see https://fortune.com/2019/07/11/economic-downturn-prediction/ ) By looking at the behavior of business cycles the answer is no https://www.nber.org/cycles.html see also Graph So the best alternative is to accept it https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/why-forecasts-fail-what-to-do-instead/ @nntaleb @mikeharrisNY ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Whm28jd9oK”> pic.twitter.com/Whm28jd9oK Permalink 12:37 AM – 13 Jul 2019
@oldmanjingles And @nntaleb is twitter’s, and the world’s, most overrated. don’t @ me. Permalink 5:28 PM – 12 Jul 2019
@iosif_lazaridis A misrepresentation of our Haak, Lazaridis et al. (2015) study @SmithsonianMag “They particularly latched onto two studies from 2015 which claimed to show … that predatory bands of young men from the Yamnaya culture of the Eurasian steppe swept…” https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/when-ancient-dna-gets-politicized-180972639/ Permalink 4:24 PM – 12 Jul 2019
@TalebWisdom “France took Algeria, hoping for a country to eat cassoulet and instead France is now eating couscous.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:59 AM – 12 Jul 2019
@normonics As @nntaleb has articulated, the existence of localism is related to the identification of what it is that in fact persists. This is related to Whitehead’s fallacy of misplaced concreteness: we confuse the administrative with the actual A town persists longer than a nation. Permalink 10:31 AM – 12 Jul 2019
@CaseyBHead A huge systemic risk that almost no one talks about, except @nntaleb. Permalink 9:05 AM – 12 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Thanks. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1148774867791175680 Permalink 8:43 AM – 12 Jul 2019
@nntaleb I’ve done numerous podcasts w/@EconTalker: each one is about a specific point; you try to go as deep as possible. It’s not about the person but the narrowly defined subject matter. Permalink 7:19 AM – 12 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Although I agree with libertarians on many points, the rich (Epstein) should never have an advantage w/ JUSTICE over a poorer (or weaker) person. Epstein used $$ to hire detectives & bully his victims & the prosecutors. Hence the Acosta deal. Legally. Permalink 6:35 AM – 12 Jul 2019
@ninconanco21 These yutzes need to read @nntaleb. Augustine was half Berber, who are Mediterraneans, not Arabs and not black Africans. https://twitter.com/scottmgreer/status/1149668167674765312 Permalink 6:18 AM – 12 Jul 2019
@nntaleb For those not getting it: he inflicted worse than a double injury, a compound one. The girls were victims of abuse & subsequently the targets of a smear campaign. Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Jul 2019
@nntaleb The most loathsome thing abt Epstein: he had detectives probe the lives of the girls who accused him, & reveal embarrassing stories in court. Girls were too scared to testify. This may explain Acosta’s deal. @AlanDersh, as his lawyeer, you must have known about these tactics. Permalink 4:41 AM – 12 Jul 2019
@nntaleb It is a mistake to think that science has anything to do with scientists. Science is a mechanism. See SCALE TRANSFORMATION in my new treatise PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Hor7fKldad”> pic.twitter.com/Hor7fKldad Permalink 1:20 PM – 11 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Closed to podcasts; except for those with @EconTalker because it can be two-way Socratic. I learned a lot from him. & his audience is v. sophisticated. If your idea doesn’t grow from the conversation it becomes downright marketing. & painful conversation. TV lasts only 3 minutes. Permalink 10:10 AM – 11 Jul 2019
@nntaleb No https://twitter.com/mrbenjohnstone/status/1149353521910878209 Permalink 9:40 AM – 11 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Some people are starting to get from the paper above why psychologists are charlatans https://twitter.com/eduardohorta/status/1102904900768489472?s=20 Permalink 9:10 AM – 11 Jul 2019
@MohajerSia @nntaleb I’ve learned more from reading the Incerto 2X this year than I have from wasting a good portion of my life in formal education. You probably won’t see this tweet but the Incerto helped me learn new ways/tools to better understand my life and the world around me. Permalink 9:07 AM – 11 Jul 2019
@nntaleb New Draft (related to IQ testing): Common Misapplications and Misinterpretations of Correlation in Social “Science” https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ via @academia Permalink 8:24 AM – 11 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Updated my next technical book (Technical Incerto, Vol1). Will soooooon be done. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ via @academia Permalink 6:34 AM – 11 Jul 2019
@MarcGoldich “Never argue with someone with the aim of changing his or her mind; focus instead on changing the much less invested minds of the audience.” @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/974280945388965888?s=21 https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1149223504652513281 Permalink 5:04 AM – 11 Jul 2019
@CTrivalle « La modernité nous inflige un châtiment double : vieillir beau- coup plus tôt et mourir beaucoup plus tard. » (@nntaleb ) Permalink 9:36 AM – 10 Jul 2019
@TulsiGabbard The #1 responsibility our president has is as Commander in Chief. As a soldier for more than 16 years who has deployed twice to the Middle East, I will be ready to be Commander in Chief on day one, and I won’t be listening to the chicken hawks clamoring for more war. #Tulsi2020 pic.twitter.com/YLceDyg5XN Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 Jul 2019
@nntaleb ENTROPY & GENETIC MAPS The distance between points needs to be scaled differently from correlation methods: covariances do not map to informational distances. We need to redo genetic maps from scratch! @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/OIfNbG0Ka5 Permalink 4:02 AM – 10 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Salafi sheikh in France is banning French students from studying non-Sharia law as “paganism”. Clearly, EU ketchupbrains, Salafism is not a “religion” but an absorbing law. EU ketchupbrains were fighting “terrorism” when that stuff has been funded by Saudi Barbaria/Qatar. https://twitter.com/breakofmilv/status/1095053726249828357 Permalink 2:45 AM – 10 Jul 2019
@nntaleb The smart thing Trump could do is dump him. https://twitter.com/secretaryacosta/status/1148618148490481664 Permalink 7:04 PM – 9 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Squid ink with @auerswald pic.twitter.com/9PDx1nRAwJ Permalink 5:49 PM – 9 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Guru @GuruAnaerobic has a theory that what makes life easy for predators is that there are suckers who walk around with “Sucker” written on their forehead. Below: both the speaker and the audience. https://twitter.com/NESTInsight/status/1146736084413505536?s=20 Permalink 12:19 PM – 9 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Laibson at a lecture explained how pple are irrational & need nudging: “this is a great investment strategy guaranteed to make money. Yet people don’t invest much, they need nudge”. Didn’t hit him that citizens can detect that such strategy may be a sucker trap for Harvard profs. Permalink 11:45 AM – 9 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Nudging is the most sinister activity whereby IYIs (who can’t find a coconut on a coconut island) manipulate citizens. Much more sinister than outright state control because you don’t know feel the manipulation. People like Laibson and Thaler need to be exposed. https://twitter.com/NESTInsight/status/1146736084413505536 Permalink 11:35 AM – 9 Jul 2019
@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR: You can’t fool entropy measures. Mutual information is nonzero for “uncorrelated” fat tails simply because they are uncorrelated but not independent! Also pulls the MI for a Student cc:@ArthurB pic.twitter.com/5Z4NImxNF0 Permalink 7:27 AM – 9 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Deutsche Bank, a summary: The Robert Rubin Trade. Banking is about hiding tail risks and the accumulation of tail exposures. Claims that it is “safe”. Society pays for the blowups. pic.twitter.com/ob1e3PeeLG Permalink 4:40 AM – 9 Jul 2019
@BiankaB12 One of the more valuable lessons I’ve learned in school is that degrees without erudition are not worth the paper they were printed on. Later in life, @nntaleb confirmed this axiom, and his work helped change the course of my life in a lot of ways. https://medium.com/@BiankaB12/on-education-an-institutionalized-destruction-of-virtues-1ba7fd57e3f9 Permalink 4:15 AM – 9 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Random order https://twitter.com/junkiedragon/status/1148368675608682496 Permalink 4:13 PM – 8 Jul 2019
@nntaleb 2/ Epstein claims his activity is “Managing money for people with net worth > 1 bil”. DUBIOUS. Family office not an easy business; very unprofitable, people underpaid: billionaires have zillions of financiers watching their money. Plus the customer base is narrow. Permalink 1:57 PM – 8 Jul 2019
@nntaleb I once drove Mandelbrot to Epstein’s mansion in NY. Had never heard of him & nobody else knew him yet Epstein was a publicity hog. Warned M. maybe laundering or mafia, not finance, shd avoid him. There are financiers who leave no footprint but those never have public life. https://twitter.com/libertyblitz/status/1148290935148535808 Permalink 11:28 AM – 8 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Those who believe that “statistically the least educated vote Conservative.” means “the most intelligent” need some real world education. https://twitter.com/profamirattaran/status/1148268855413944323 Permalink 10:18 AM – 8 Jul 2019
@nntaleb PHILOLOGY yawmiyyé Min wén jéyé klmét “tfingé”? Ma 3am lé2é masdara. Permalink 6:33 AM – 8 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Interventionistas (Iraq, Lybia, Syria) such as Thomas Friedman (@tomfriedman @NYT), thanks to industrial scale, have each caused more deaths than any artisanal serial killer. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1148203732720672774 Permalink 6:21 AM – 8 Jul 2019
@john_f_hamer A CELEBRATION OF WHAT WORKS: A conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb about why scale matters, why localism is better than globalism, why journalists get on his nerves, and why stated beliefs habitually fail to reveal underlying preferences. https://apple.co/2GQWrY4 @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Wp2rrXPYAR”> pic.twitter.com/Wp2rrXPYAR Permalink 5:09 AM – 8 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Here is are probability mini-lectures, 5-10 min around technical points of the INCERTO. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww/videos Permalink 4:03 AM – 8 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Here is my probability mini-lectures, 5-10 min around technical points of the INCERTO https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww https://twitter.com/Capeya1/status/1146239661079171072 Permalink 3:51 AM – 8 Jul 2019
@nntaleb This is mostly noise. But read the “correlation” buzzwords BS to see how “Phd” pple don’t know how to think. https://twitter.com/aedmans/status/1147494932183179264 Permalink 4:53 PM – 7 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Incidentally, the country IQ for Lebanon is total fraud. It was designed by a fraudulent group [see tweets]. Even proxies don’t compute, since math education level is higher than Western Europe. Permalink 9:47 AM – 7 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener. Bed of Procrustes, 2nd ed. Permalink 5:56 AM – 7 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Determination https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1147674538324267008 Permalink 6:24 PM – 6 Jul 2019
@nntaleb IQ testing is like making cars compete in a racetrack, and use it to make claims about their ability to cross a dense forest (with unpaved roads) such as the Amazon. Permalink 5:07 PM – 6 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Crossing my fingers. I have some Champagne ready for the day when Bolton is out. https://twitter.com/GarethPorter/status/1147606311326158850 Permalink 1:50 PM – 6 Jul 2019
@nntaleb If you are trying to be liked by both the left and the right, you are a demagogue. If you don’t mind being hated by both, you are morally upright. Permalink 8:28 AM – 6 Jul 2019
@nntaleb So Thanks to Maestro @ArmandDAngour we can surmise that people at the hippodrome of Tyre, Lebanon, were shouting “Eλα!” centuries before the very notion of “ya alla” and monotheism could have reached them. @Jonassibony pic.twitter.com/A5TeCJI72E Permalink 5:47 AM – 6 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Ma 7ada min jdudak 7kyo lfs7a, la bin 2arib, w la min b3id. Permalink 5:40 AM – 6 Jul 2019
@nntaleb LOCALISM,1 Governments come & go, bureaucrats stay. Ministries & agencies aren’t run by ministers & transitory figureheads, but by a “deep local microstate” of civil servants who have been there for decades & “own” the inside. Worse: EPA was run by Monsanto, FAA by Boeing. Permalink 5:02 AM – 6 Jul 2019
@nntaleb In today’s ultra-differentiated ecosystem, being a PROBABILIST is a valuable specialization. It’s all applied nonstandard statistics. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1005490626195017728 Permalink 2:21 PM – 5 Jul 2019
@TulsiGabbard 94,379 unique donors! Keep spreading the word and RT to share with friends. Become a debate donor and help bring our voice to the 3rd debates! http://tulsi.to/the-debates Permalink 12:40 PM – 5 Jul 2019
@MatthiasGalvin If there’s one thing I’ve learned from @nntaleb it’s that understanding probability theory is yuuuuuugely more useful than understanding tools of statistics Permalink 7:51 AM – 5 Jul 2019
@BryanAccra “Contra the prevailing belief, “success” isn’t being on top of a hierarchy, it is standing outside all hierarchies.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:08 AM – 5 Jul 2019
@yvespatte “It is vastly more respectable to come to politics rich than come out of it rich” “Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connection imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer” – @nntaleb “Principia Politica” https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica https://twitter.com/lesoirplus/status/1146823037209198598 Permalink 1:30 AM – 5 Jul 2019
@nntaleb More details from real world (finance) applications. Genetics data are Gaussian, making the transformation more robust. pic.twitter.com/FsiWBK28Xt Permalink 4:17 PM – 4 Jul 2019
@nntaleb The Romanian Orthodox Church ows me 2 (re)conversions, at least. https://twitter.com/t_wordy/status/1146873927391514625 Permalink 1:23 PM – 4 Jul 2019
@QuincyMckall @nntaleb explains this better I can https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1015276380416770048?s=19 Permalink 1:08 PM – 4 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Shermer, fucking fabricator, you are trying to divert from the fact that the review is about ANOTHER book, skin in the game, which was done in Skeptic AFTER I exposed you as a charlatan. It is an ethical violation to use a journal to settle scores. An ethical violation. Permalink 8:48 AM – 4 Jul 2019
@LebaneseAlefBet Stop Abusing the Lebanese Language, in Lebanese we say LEBNÉNIYÉ not LEBNÉNIYÍN. https://twitter.com/ChristelleNehm4/status/1145624918052225025 Permalink 8:24 AM – 4 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Trying genetic maps: they are misinterpreted. “Linear correlation” is nonlinear to information. But a trick for rescaling works when data is Gaussian. cc @ArthurB pic.twitter.com/LC9BhWVx8J Permalink 7:19 AM – 4 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Il dormire fa come il mangiare (Qui dort dine) Dig deep and all these sayings are Med and #lindy https://twitter.com/Spfannenschmidt/status/1146783770512625667 Permalink 7:16 AM – 4 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Eddie Hall @eddiehallWSM who deadlifted >1000lbs lost weight! Apparently without too much effort. Easier to go from strong and fat to strong and fit than from skinny (or skinny fat) to fit. pic.twitter.com/llQWq2oBwg Permalink 5:57 AM – 4 Jul 2019
@TalebWisdom “The problem with academics is that they really think that nonacademics find them more intelligent than themselves.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:36 AM – 4 Jul 2019
@Sweetvinny1 Harris and Pinker make monstrous errors and Taleb catches them red handed (with documentation, you know, math, that don’t lie) and they attack his personality not his rebuttal and you support it, you fucking half wit. Permalink 4:01 AM – 4 Jul 2019
@Rhiju “boring is the only very bad thing for a book.” – @nntaleb (You can read this one a hundred times & discover something new everytime) http://amzn.in/1rZ9iwx ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6fIVTL5ybV”> pic.twitter.com/6fIVTL5ybV Permalink 11:55 PM – 3 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Hammurabi’s code: false accusers are to be treated as if they committed the violation themselves. #skininthegame #symmetry https://twitter.com/assalehamer/status/1146557975844179968 Permalink 4:29 PM – 3 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Having lunch with a vegan fellow. He challenged me: produce solid research and he would change his mind. Solution: asked him to follow @Mangan150 for 40 days as well as the conversation around his posts. Permalink 10:10 AM – 3 Jul 2019
@nntaleb The larger the corporation, the more likely it will try to screw citizens. Your local butcher, barber, grocer, and baker aren’t in the business of lobbying/manipulating science. Monsanto, Weapons makers, Pharma live off coersion, manipulation of science, & propaganda #Corporatism Permalink 8:28 AM – 3 Jul 2019
@nntaleb 2) Monoculture & linguistic formalism cannot be maintained without state coersion. 2nd French Nobel in Literature was to Frederic Mistral who wrote in Provencal. The process started by Jules Ferry managed to get it extinct. Micronationalism (Catalan, Basque) is just localism Permalink 7:13 AM – 3 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Fascism is an absorbing identity: Napoleonic killing all local languages/cultures; Italian unification, Franco, Ataturk. Worst is “Arabism”. + Monoculture + Centralized state + State defined “identity” via “educated elite” + Nonfractal https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica @QifaNabki Permalink 5:15 AM – 3 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Michael Shermer you published a review of #SkinInTheGame in YOUR journal AFTER I exposed you of a charlatan/intellectual fraud. It is unethical: you should reveal that you are using your journal for such purposes. UNETHICAL. Gabish? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1146202975200784385?s=20 Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Jul 2019
@nntaleb OK, OK, after all this procratination time to finish the work on the formalization of the #Lindy effect pic.twitter.com/XTVQNvTtws Permalink 5:28 PM – 2 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Shermer doesn’t get that when someone is called charlatan, & it is true, best strategy for @michaelshermer is to stay quiet. People may then scrutinize his “empiricism” & MY claims. & Using one’s journal for personal retaliation is an ethical violation. https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/1146169906666151937?s=20 Permalink 3:37 PM – 2 Jul 2019
@fractalharry Ce moment magique de Twitter où une personne like mon tweet et c’est mon auteur favori @nntaleb auquel j’étais très exactement en train de penser en ecrivant ce même tweet ! (Cf notion de iatrogénie notamment expliquée dans Antifragile.) pic.twitter.com/u9Vc08UC4j Permalink 12:38 PM – 2 Jul 2019
@nntaleb The journalist Pinker @sapinker, while posing for an arbiter of statistical truths, mistakes data for anecdotes and anecdotes for data. Nobody illustrates pseudo-empiricism better than him & that other charlatan @michaelshermer Anecdotes vs statistical significance https://twitter.com/LorenzoWVilla/status/1145815737925345280 Permalink 12:13 PM – 2 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Answer with Monte Carlo to illustrate pic.twitter.com/TTVWkZ7tdA Permalink 11:16 AM – 2 Jul 2019
@nntaleb If the Iliad survived, it is precisely because it is not summarizable. #Lindy https://twitter.com/shaarsh2/status/1146113480577208320 Permalink 10:49 AM – 2 Jul 2019
@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ThomasJefferson #liberty #independenceday #GOAT pic.twitter.com/KBD96ZnEy4 Permalink 9:33 AM – 2 Jul 2019
@TheDefenderA My reading choices have changed drastically since reading Incerto. Books by doers (unless it’s a novel, and isn’t a New Age fable i.e. Coelho). Via negtiva – no books by career professors or journalists (w very limited exceptions). Any philosophy – Lindy. Permalink 9:11 AM – 2 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Political discussions violate rigor/ethics. No matter how much you hate Trump, never blame him for stuff for which you didn’t blame others. The code of ethics is in PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica https://twitter.com/brandondarby/status/1146045973535309825 Permalink 7:54 AM – 2 Jul 2019
@jadabdala Touristification of minds on the way from Athens to Berytus. In the photos – Tourist 1 – Tourist 2 (Coelho, plz no) – Me (fuck you tourists) pic.twitter.com/YTLK2kxgYc Permalink 5:20 AM – 2 Jul 2019
@nntaleb 2) The entropy/information theory approach to correlation is mutual information, similar to Kelly criterion: How much can I bet on the value of Y knowing X? If Y certain (ρ=1), infinite. If ρ=½, tiny. All IQ psychology is worthless. Permalink 4:36 AM – 2 Jul 2019
@hhlahoud It’s amazing how many words we say, are Syriac in origin! Example: ِدِيرْ=ܕܝܪ =direct بال= ܒܳܐܠܳ = mind زَلمي= ܙܰܠܳܡܳܐ= a fellow Lebanese: ! ديرْ بالك من ها الزَلمي Arabic: ! كن حذراً من هذا الشخص English: Beware of this fellow! Permalink 4:35 AM – 2 Jul 2019
@nntaleb DataScience 101 #RWRI showed how elementary but nonlinear concepts like “correlation” are poorly understood by pros. One needs to translate ρ into information. See how ρ= ½ is much closer to 0 than to a ρ=1. Yuuge diff betw .9 & .99 Psychologists cluelss for 50 years. 1/n pic.twitter.com/pvnCKJrIwu Permalink 4:32 AM – 2 Jul 2019
@nntaleb On second thoughts, yuuuuuuuuge caution is needed. There is no foreign “revolution” that Soros did not like… So I wonder about this policy. Plus some individuals can be suspect… So guarded optimism. http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/july/01/shocker-charles-koch-and-george-soros-to-team-up-and-form-foreign-policy-institute/ Permalink 3:05 PM – 1 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Never allow unsollicited advice from friends. Every time someone gave me a “friendly advice” on 1) writing style, 2) trading strategy, 3) How I should not be weightlifting, 4) Why I shd be nice to Monsanto, etc., I’m glad I did opposite. Be stubborn. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1145768968168333312 Permalink 12:22 PM – 1 Jul 2019
@DanielLMcAdams Excellent analytical point. https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1145757977548402695 Permalink 11:19 AM – 1 Jul 2019
@nntaleb QUIZ on IQ interpretation I wish some IQ psychologist could walk away from the verbalism BS and answer it. pic.twitter.com/IOR6miRIN3 Permalink 11:08 AM – 1 Jul 2019
@RonPaulInstitut Trump Meets Kim In North Korea – Why Are The Democrats Hysterical? – today on the Liberty Report: http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/july/01/trump-meets-kim-in-north-korea-why-are-the-democrats-hysterical/ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7Ce0rEOkxg”> pic.twitter.com/7Ce0rEOkxg Permalink 10:28 AM – 1 Jul 2019
@nntaleb So as Maestro @ArmandDAngour has shown Έλα! has been present in Greek 1200 years before the language now called Arabic reached the Med. The distinction “ya alla” and “yalla” is obvious from noncorrelated usage. https://twitter.com/ArmandDAngour/status/1145225927930068992 Permalink 3:46 AM – 1 Jul 2019
@nntaleb Who needs an IQ test when you can detect someone’s coherence, intellectual depth, and ability to reason without circularity in… a single tweet? https://twitter.com/DarrenJBeattie/status/1145529656931758084 Permalink 3:01 AM – 1 Jul 2019
@matthewglickman Please retweet to help #findmaxchung highschooler missing now for 12 days https://twitter.com/nypdmissing/status/1140954238748635136 Permalink 5:51 PM – 30 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Sign me up! Noninterventionism >>> everything else @tparsi https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1145410888612175872 Permalink 1:43 PM – 30 Jun 2019
@nntaleb People don’t get that a publisher in NY selling books written in NY to readers in NY but printing in China needs to obey Chinese censorship. Most annoying is that publishers and authors were wimps: I was the ONLY one to stand up. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/dec/14/nassim-nicholas-taleb-hits-out-at-chinese-printers-censorship-of-his-book Permalink 1:01 PM – 30 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Here is my piece on the circularity of tests among other problems: testing is good for testtakers https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 11:04 AM – 30 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Ther’s a serious mathematical mistake in the podcast. If you give more time to the tortoises you will still get a bell curve. The top 10% will have a different composition, fewer hares. You can’t get 20% in the top 10%: the bell curve is normalized. Otherwise @gladwell is right. https://twitter.com/BigTimHerron/status/1145367373941215233 Permalink 10:48 AM – 30 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Globalization pic.twitter.com/ar0NsBX0Rg Permalink 9:49 AM – 30 Jun 2019
@Jaffer22915438 1) Real World Business & Marketing: What follows is a Tweetstorm that are real life lessons learned the hard way. This is a mini real world entrepreneurial guide. I included links to blog posts when appropriate. Inspired by RWRI & @nntaleb Permalink 8:44 AM – 30 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Wilson justifiably called @RichardDawkins a “journalist”. Dawkins doesn’t understand complicated probabilistic processes. But he is good at bullshitting & swaying the public. https://twitter.com/UtilaTheEcon/status/1145226870717177856 Permalink 4:09 AM – 30 Jun 2019
@PabloinSilence Lo recomiendo de @nntaleb, muy en línea ( Principios 1, 3 y 10): https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica La fraternidad no tanto como un elemento de una terna sino como una escala necesaria en la organización política. Uno de los errores sería asumir q las políticas son “libres de escala”. Permalink 2:43 AM – 30 Jun 2019
@alxpr1c3 same as Nassim’s “it’s ok to confuse a stone for a bear; not a bear for a stone.” https://twitter.com/KVdP_vliegt/status/1145058876326383617 Permalink 1:48 AM – 30 Jun 2019
@digvijoy_c https://news.bitcoin.com/why-bitcoiners-are-turning-to-unschooling-for-decentralized-education/ people who get localism and decentralization just seek it everywhere . #homeschool Permalink 7:45 PM – 29 Jun 2019
@JamesMarsh79 Modern Science Could Hit Roundup Maker Monsanto Where It Hurts – Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-28/modern-science-could-hit-roundup-maker-monsanto-where-it-hurts Permalink 5:38 PM – 29 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Only 1% of people in desk professions understand their subject matter. But 99% of prostitutes understand prostitution. #RWRI 11 (#ExpertProblem) Permalink 2:03 PM – 29 Jun 2019
@KVdP_vliegt On my way back home from #RWRI reading @rorysutherland great book Alchemy and just read below quote. It re-iterates @nntaleb point that it is always rational to be paranoic. pic.twitter.com/DQYvhuTVVL Permalink 12:58 PM – 29 Jun 2019
@imleslahdin I wanna thank all the people I met at #RWRI: @nntaleb for making it happen. @Mehdi_IR_DC & @chasechandler for their time. Special thanks to @trishankkarthik for always challenging/embarrassing me and to @famadeo for saving me face All others on and off twitter that I forgot. Permalink 12:16 PM – 29 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Philology du jour (more): Yalla! in Lebanese (let’s go!, come!) comes from Έλα! Permalink 9:48 AM – 29 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 14 That funding causes innovation. False. Innovation brings funding. Permalink 8:56 AM – 29 Jun 2019
@JackConnorWoo Still buzzing from #RWRI. Can’t describe in words how intellectually satisfying this course is, nor how good it feels to be around such smart people like @normonics @NiloufarKhavari @diomavro and of course the incredible @nntaleb. But I’m going to try, blog post (coming soon). Permalink 6:38 AM – 29 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Philology du jour: The Lebanese Tshbi7 (shabba7) تشبيح comes from the Canaanite/Phoenician שבח, to praise, glorify (teshba7to moryo in Syriac= Praise the Lord). Its current meaning is “produce hot air” or “pontification with extreme exaggeration”. Permalink 6:03 AM – 29 Jun 2019
@amconmag “At the end of the Cold War, we were the lone superpower. Who forfeited our preeminence? Who bled us of 7,000 U.S. lives and $6 trillion in endless wars? Who got us into this Cold War II? Was all this the doing of those damnable isolationists again?” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/memo-to-trump-trade-bolton-for-tulsi/ Permalink 5:30 AM – 29 Jun 2019
@mdvex Corporatism is not capitalism. The true cost hasn’t been paid yet. Corporatism is politically postponed bankruptcy. Permalink 2:19 AM – 29 Jun 2019
@caitoz The Forever War Is So Normalized That Opposing It Is “Isolationism” “Under our current Orwellian doublespeak paradigm where forever war is the new normal, the opposite of war is no longer peace, but isolationism.” #war #peace #TulsiGabbard https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/the-forever-war-is-so-normalized-that-opposing-it-is-isolationism-8b4062aed18b Permalink 6:33 PM – 28 Jun 2019
@YoungSandboxer Unbelievable week #RWRI. Couldn’t recommend more Met intellektual hero of many years @nntaleb, as well as @trishankkarthik & others passionate about complexity + risk So much new knowledge—but the funny thing is, I am even more curious about this stuff than before the class! Permalink 4:12 PM – 28 Jun 2019
@trishankkarthik And now, organically-developed heuristics from #RWRI attendees Let’s look at some old ones: “The world is more fat-tailed than you think.” Permalink 1:09 PM – 28 Jun 2019
@diomavro @nntaleb @trishankkarthik, say we should be concave to passwords. And hackers can’t take riskless pictures. #RWRI. pic.twitter.com/FqK93jfjot Permalink 12:38 PM – 28 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Lunch #RWRI pic.twitter.com/oImidN1PCs Permalink 9:59 AM – 28 Jun 2019
@imleslahdin “If you wanna start Data Science from scratch, start with Information Theory.” -Nassim Taleb @nntaleb #rwri #datascience Permalink 9:08 AM – 28 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 5th day #RWRI 11 Machine learning pic.twitter.com/I70lrsBRnM Permalink 6:37 AM – 28 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 5th day #RWRI 11 Aerospace pic.twitter.com/tokAvk3lal Permalink 6:31 AM – 28 Jun 2019
@diomavro @trishankkarthik trying to convince us that his bald head is more elegant than Russels axioms. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/dUvEuuCc53 Permalink 11:10 AM – 27 Jun 2019
@trishankkarthik “A probability distribution cannot tell you if the realization belongs to it.” Permalink 9:24 AM – 27 Jun 2019
@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb tawking about how the Masquerade problem (you can reject but not prove something is a Gaussian) is related to Gödelian self-reference… #RWRI Permalink 9:23 AM – 27 Jun 2019
@Jaffer22915438 I wrote a blog post on the plane based on a question Nassim asked me at #RWRI . I will proof tomorrow snd post. Topic? Facebook fraud. Stay tuned Permalink 12:48 PM – 26 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Rule 110 (by @stephen_wolfram) discussed by @financequant #RWRI pic.twitter.com/PfU4QatfPV Permalink 8:41 AM – 26 Jun 2019
@diomavro Raphael interrupting @normonics, and @nntaleb trolling him #RWRI pic.twitter.com/QlxYgorjq5 Permalink 7:26 AM – 26 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Furthermore, such a program should also compensate those who did not borrow. And charge the universities and real estate developers for the costs of the bailout. #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1143585114968010752 Permalink 1:59 AM – 26 Jun 2019
@paulanawfal Merely two days have passed and I have already learned so much. Let’s see what the next three days shall hold @nntaleb #rwri_11 pic.twitter.com/QEokhcFD0T Permalink 6:01 PM – 25 Jun 2019
@sergesapiens 4m post #RWRI10. If you accept @nntaleb maths anchored in the real world, put your skin in the #RWRI game! As much as you think you’ve got it, you‘ll learn some more and you’ll root yourself deeper in the moat with immediate benefits. Permalink 4:14 AM – 25 Jun 2019
@phl43 In 2008, Science published a paper which found that conservatives had a stronger physiological response to threat (which has since been cited more than 500 times), then more recently desk-rejected a failed replication with a sample size 4 times as large https://slate.com/technology/2019/06/science-replication-conservatives-liberals-reacting-to-threats.amp Permalink 1:34 PM – 24 Jun 2019
@PaulSkallas I remember when I attended. You leave drained. Beat up. The benefits come later. Parts of it stick with you. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1143190040153153537 Permalink 1:29 PM – 24 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Lunch pic.twitter.com/tVG0ximuBz Permalink 10:01 AM – 24 Jun 2019
@nntaleb #RWRI in new location, RWRI-11 pic.twitter.com/whI5DOpZxJ Permalink 9:11 AM – 24 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Hawks are low-intellect, low-experience, low-skills people; if laid off, unusable in real-life, not even to wash you car. The absence of the #skininthegame filtering degrades decision-making. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1143011525684322305 Permalink 2:55 AM – 24 Jun 2019
@nntaleb So, far, thanks to twitter, the definition is improving. pic.twitter.com/yfK6QKuoaY Permalink 9:24 AM – 23 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Friends, please tear apart my definition of verbalism. pic.twitter.com/zvDhPcW78X Permalink 7:40 AM – 23 Jun 2019
@nntaleb FOR DISCUSSION, some definitions: Xenophobia ⧣ racism, even if it correlates. Xenophobia has gradations from indirect (homophilia/love for your family) to direct (state borders). Racism=considering that some races have, genetically, INFERIOR intellectual or moral attributes. Permalink 3:30 AM – 23 Jun 2019
@nntaleb To repeat: Skin in the Game is not, as Nudgeboy Thaler @R_Thaler & that picklebrain @CFCamerer say, an incentive that makes you perform better. It is, simply, a filter that operates on the collective. https://twitter.com/ArthurB/status/1142719660812591104 Permalink 3:17 AM – 23 Jun 2019
@maxmarotti Important discovery at Amioun #Lebanon by LEB-ITA archeological team coordinated by Universita’ Udine @uniud & funded by @ItalyMFA . Amioun now proven an inhabited city since early bronze age , 3300 BC . @nntaleb @ItalyinLebanon pic.twitter.com/C5RQukAbXv Permalink 3:01 AM – 23 Jun 2019
@LieraMarco The dignity of a Mediterranean man selling his crops in Southern Italy. For centuries these people have taken care of themselves regardless of economic “growth” 1/2 @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/YgXP5O2LQc Permalink 3:56 PM – 22 Jun 2019
@nntaleb An example of retrospective bigoteering: flowing today’s standards backward in time, and not realizing it. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1142431943352623104 Permalink 9:33 AM – 22 Jun 2019
@Neanderthoughts Yes, making explicit the criteria for exposing hidden assumptions in “verbalism” is essential for minimizing political insanity. Especially now with inflammatory social media. Permalink 7:36 AM – 22 Jun 2019
@nntaleb For some obscure reason Italian archeologists are interested in Amioun my ancestral village! Progetto Archeologico Libano Settentrionale (PALiS/ NoLeP) https://youtu.be/DecPfJbzWE4 via @YouTube Permalink 7:33 AM – 22 Jun 2019
@nntaleb The 5 volume Incerto is here! Very heavy, you can use for exercise. pic.twitter.com/8kvZbUaMYI Permalink 5:56 AM – 22 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Nobody understand what “racism” & “xenophobia” mean. Everything is SCALE dependent. Arab tribes slaughter groups > (say) 5, welcome groups <5 with yuuge hospitality. Get rid of verbalism in Principia (next book). Avoid Pol Sci/Journo BS. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uAIzMDmJ7R”> pic.twitter.com/uAIzMDmJ7R Permalink 5:47 AM – 22 Jun 2019
@diomavro Alright its takeoff time! Going to NY to attend #RWRI for 5 days! Excited to meet @nntaleb in person. Talebs books helped me embrace my Mediterranean attitude and put me back on the Orthodox trail. Hopefully will also get to meet some of the crew I’ve been stalking. Permalink 3:51 AM – 22 Jun 2019
@nntaleb 2) From experiene, I can’t find any (nonweight bearing) exercise that makes you go all out and raises the heart rate as much as running uphill (on a mild hill). And it is exhilarating. Permalink 5:08 PM – 21 Jun 2019
@nntaleb TOPIC FOR DISCUSSION: Run a mile in mildly hilly terrain at least once a week, as fast as you can. Make sure you run completely out of breath on the local top of the hill. Do not run an inch more. Never slowly. Discuss. @GuruAnaerobic @VergilDen Permalink 5:01 PM – 21 Jun 2019
@Wayland_J_Blue @nntaleb you preach statistics in Homeric language. You helped me to understand that what the ancients lacked in sophistry, they had in wisdom 77 fold Permalink 10:40 AM – 21 Jun 2019
@willchamberlain Bush administration officials are responsible for the catastrophically stupid Iraq War Obama administration officials are responsible for the catastrophically stupid Libyan intervention And they have the chutzpah to critique Trump for CALLING OFF an Iran strike? Lunatics Permalink 7:06 AM – 21 Jun 2019
@nntaleb People with skin in the game are fundamentally localist. Empty suits in DC are not. Permalink 6:17 AM – 21 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Some clarity: DEFENSE is when you defend your country at, or near, your borders. Not when you fight people several time zones away. Find another name for this “DEFENSE” spending. Permalink 3:04 PM – 20 Jun 2019
@antemachina “La modélisation ne peut pas être illimitée, car quelle que soit la vitesse et l’architecture de traitement de données d’un ordinateur, l’augmentation des dimensions à paramétrer excède assez vite toute possibilité de calcul.” Sur l’IA. Personne ne va retweeter ce message. Permalink 2:16 PM – 20 Jun 2019
@nntaleb I will the local Orthodox priest… https://twitter.com/vonkronstadt/status/1141772135158992896 Permalink 11:29 AM – 20 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Social scientists use correlation not knowing what it means. Then they say they are “empirical”. pic.twitter.com/eKYodnjxxq Permalink 11:24 AM – 20 Jun 2019
@nntaleb All psychology is effectively useless. A correlation of .35, even when not circular, reduces uncertainty by 0 adjusting the noise & error propagation. https://twitter.com/meistrephilipos/status/1141541837339090944 Permalink 11:13 AM – 20 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Psychologists are spreading a post “debunking my empirical claims” saying “but there is correlation”. They aren’t smart enough to get my claim that data has “correlation”. But It’s meaningless, circular, noisy, nonadditive & under nonlinearitiees, fails. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 11:07 AM – 20 Jun 2019
@yaneerbaryam How can we prevent ethnic violence? Instead of forcing people to move so that they are mixed or separated, introducing well-defined boundaries that allow for more local autonomy can enable peaceful coexistence. #WorldRefugeeDay https://necsi.edu/solving-ethnic-violence ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/noIZtUHvtJ”> pic.twitter.com/noIZtUHvtJ Permalink 9:33 AM – 20 Jun 2019
@manukankani One of the best explanation on socialism and capitalism in one minute by @naval cc: @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/LvFd5s3I1z Permalink 1:14 AM – 20 Jun 2019
@Mangan150 Strange how following mainstream health advice like eating plant-based, using seed oils, avoiding the sun, and taking a statin will turn you into a shell of a human being. Can that be a coincidence? Permalink 6:54 PM – 19 Jun 2019
@TalebWisdom “Never argue with people in private (you will not convince them); argue in public to convince others.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 3:39 PM – 19 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Seed oil is not #Lindy. As with transfats idiots are still using it as “healthy alternative”, particularly in France. Even in Belgium they use it as replacement for tallow. Same mistake twice! https://twitter.com/blakeburris/status/1141404419231113216 Permalink 3:36 PM – 19 Jun 2019
@drjasonfung An Anti-Aging Pill? Think Twice https://nyti.ms/2FkqSq5 Permalink 3:33 PM – 19 Jun 2019
@nntaleb The best training you can offer yourself is detecting circularity. It teaches you to think not just forward in 2nd, 3rd steps, but backward in minus 1st, 2nd steps, etc. Modernity is full of circularities (education, citation rings, journalism, classifications, IQ, psychology…) Permalink 6:00 AM – 19 Jun 2019
@EHSANI22 This book catalogues how a significant part of spoken Arabic in #Aleppo #Syria is originally Assyrian / Aramaic This also covers many the small towns and villages including Afrin , Manbej, Shougour and Ma’ara (All are Assyrian / Aramaic words) The total list is astounding pic.twitter.com/AEbdafgq83 Permalink 4:29 PM – 18 Jun 2019
@nntaleb I am honored to be on the U.S. watchlist. https://twitter.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1140980698486120448 Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Most frequent comments when I run into someone: 1) Are you “working on” another book? No, it’s all one book. All Merged. And it’s not work 2) You look thinner in person than in pictures 3) You seem much, much less of an asshole than in your Twitter feed Permalink 5:03 AM – 18 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Psychologists there are frauds. This is the type of work they do. They just show the resulting plot line. pic.twitter.com/3jqftuP116 Permalink 4:59 AM – 18 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Weeks away from shipping Incerto (5-volume Hardcover Box Set) https://www.amazon.com/dp/198481981X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_d1mcDbXQGB9AF Permalink 4:39 AM – 18 Jun 2019
@nntaleb FORECASTING SHOULD BE IN REAL LIFE Foreword for the @spyrosmakrid M4 competition. We are now working on the M5 competition which should be the mother of all forecasting checks! pic.twitter.com/IGdS7U2iy3 Permalink 3:36 AM – 18 Jun 2019
@nntaleb In other words, if you took 2 IQ tests there will be a variation. Such variation is BIGGER than the one you’d get from the effect ! (Not counting the circularity that good test takers tend to get degrees so they get some jobs without necessarily performing better). FRAUD Permalink 3:12 AM – 18 Jun 2019
@nntaleb The article is a (naive) fraud. They show a line, not a cloud of points so we don’t see the variance & the gaming. But these idiots (psychologists) proved the following: if in spite of the circularity, the diff betw 55 and 130 is so small for the variance, IQ is just hot air. https://twitter.com/ROBERTO_COLOM/status/1140707195161645056 Permalink 1:52 PM – 17 Jun 2019
@SeyyAli_Mirzaei #Proud to speak @googlecloud on the importance of being #AntiFragile (@nntaleb) learning/growing from chaos at @gcdcislamabad @TensorFlow @googledevs. Thrilled & inspired to see more #women in #Tech space in #Pakistan. T-shirt reads: “Less gender roles, more paratha rolls!” https://twitter.com/CynthiaDRitchie/status/1140671573277495296 Permalink 10:46 AM – 17 Jun 2019
@gbponz Rep. Tulsi Gabbard opposes impeachment and dislikes identity politics. And she’s running for president, writes @mtracey https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-hawaii-democrats-surprising-views-11560714036?shareToken=ste65d586625d3416b994206c9783a1b9c di @WSJ @nntaleb Permalink 6:19 AM – 17 Jun 2019
@nntaleb The Incerto so far is 2000 pages long. It is the summary. I doubt there is a shorter summary of the Incerto than the Incerto. Permalink 4:27 AM – 17 Jun 2019
@nntaleb There’s no such thing as “scientific evidence showing safety” but somethg called “failure to reject” at some significance which was NEVER done for GMOs as Monsanto spent more energy smearing critics than testing. Journalists are carriers of charlatanism. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/lhymv1sQdC”> pic.twitter.com/lhymv1sQdC Permalink 2:22 AM – 17 Jun 2019
@nntaleb This crap was promoted into my feed. If a book can be summarized, it’s not a book but a magazine article; don’t read it and don’t read its summary. https://twitter.com/blinkist/status/1024238241585790976 Permalink 11:42 AM – 16 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Syrians in Lebanon: no advice without skin in the game. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1123192807429169154 Permalink 5:15 AM – 16 Jun 2019
@LieraMarco You don’t need a psychologist to save a guy who wants to commit sucide. A truck driver is much more effective. @nntaleb https://milano.corriere.it/19_giugno_16/gabriel-camionista-che-ha-salvato-ragazzo-cavalcavia-non-sono-eroe-0fd25fe0-8fb3-11e9-88d7-b66be71f5fe3.shtml Permalink 5:12 AM – 16 Jun 2019
@spectatorindex Oldest cities in the world. 1. Jericho, Palestinian Ter. 2. Byblos, Lebanon 3. Aleppo, Syria 4. Damascus, Syria 5. Susa, Iran 6. Faiyum, Egypt 7. Sidon, Lebanon 8. Plovdiv, Bulgaria 9. Gaziantep, Turkey 10. Beirut, Lebanon (Telegraph) Longer list: https://www.instagram.com/p/ByxJ5aQD7CR/ Permalink 3:56 AM – 16 Jun 2019
@nntaleb The Lebanese government is always accused of racism by first order bigoteers (with no SITG) whenever they discuss the case of Syrian refugees (close to 20–30% of the population), then put on the defensive having to explain “they are not racist, but”. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8?postPublishedType=repub Permalink 2:49 AM – 16 Jun 2019
@nntaleb Large governments are weapon merchants: UK, US, France, Russia. Foreign “policy” is dictated by weapons manufacturers. The press (@tomfriedman , @BretStephensNYT) are just marketing agents, something effective under the name “democracy”. Which is why we need @TulsiGabbard Permalink 2:07 AM – 16 Jun 2019
@datenverstehen @nntaleb apparently localism is on the rise in UK Permalink 8:01 AM – 15 Jun 2019