The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Universa Inv. & NYU Tandon)

Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You
(With Mark Spitznagel)

Why should we spend taxpayer money to bailout companies who spent their cash (and often even borrowed to generate that cash) to buy their own stock (so the CEO gets optionality), instead of building a rainy day buffer? Such bailouts punish those who acted conservatively and harms them in the long run, favoring the fool and the rent-seeker.

Die Corona-Pandemie ist kein schwarzer Schwan: Warum 2020 nach Nassim Taleb nicht mit 2008 zu vergleichen ist

 

@nntaleb Flooded by journo/TV/podcts to talk abt #BlackSwan My business is research/writing, not conversing w/ bullshitters; they shd read my books… & tweets! Harari has a staff of 12 handling stuff. Me: staff of 0, but email robot deletes interview requests not from friends. Gabish? Permalink 10:12 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The legal system will fix the problem. Sue owners (private equity funds) & managers for knowingly endangering your life. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1247561089233158146   Permalink 9:44 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The argument by the @WHO imbeciles & journo fellow travelers that masks “can give a false sense of security” is interesting. Let’s apply it to: +seat belts +airbags +helmets +door locks +condoms +circuit breakers +parachutes +bulletproof vests +fire alarms +scholomorochs … Permalink 9:17 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The argument by the @WHO imbeciles & journo fellow travelers that masks “can give a false sense of security” is interesting. Let’s apply it to: +seat belts +airbags +helmets +door locks +condoms +circuit breakers +parachutes +bulletproof vests +fire alarms +scholomorochs … Permalink 9:17 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb As I said, the problem we face is “science” journalism. A real problem. #AbsenceofEvidenceisNotEvidenceofAbsenceParticularlyUnderRiskAsymmetries https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1247506964046843905?s=20   Permalink 8:05 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Something tells me the quarantine might last longer than planned. pic.twitter.com/FGJNOKgYA8 Permalink 4:50 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Levantine is not Arabic Permalink 7:08 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I can provide some training if you need, @NAChristakis. God (or evolution) invented curse words for a reason. https://twitter.com/nachristakis/status/1247338300706361345   Permalink 6:55 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Idiots! Scientism kills pple’s innate reasoning abilities & survival instinct You don’t wear a mask jus because you have evidence that transmission is airborne. You wear a mask because YOU DON’T KNOW whether transmission is airborne. #Asymmetry. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-airborne-go-outside-masks/609235/   Permalink 6:22 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) Il faut arrêter de me casser les pieds! Marseille, en anglais, s’écrit avec un s. Permalink 3:18 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@PaulSkallas he ended up deleting the tweet pic.twitter.com/LEbF4jI7bB Permalink 1:36 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2/ I wrote this for Mike’s children for them to understand statistical significance, something Bloomberg, Forbes, NYT journalists are not getting yet spreading confusion. So unless they cook their numbers in Marseilles, there is preliminary significance. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1246809237050871810?s=20   Permalink 12:43 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@ejajo Written in 2016, happening now: “They can thus cause monstrous iatrogenics[1] without even feeling a shade of a guilt, because they are convinced that they mean well and that they can be thus justified to ignore the deep effect on reality.” [1] Harm done by the healer. #IYI Permalink 12:33 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Not surprising given my analysis of the Marseilles data (see tweet w/the Mathematica file). The question is how large the effect. Also why the smear campaign ag. Raoult? OK, he’s the most cited virologist who talks on TV like a TV healer; doesn’t help. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/491358-cuomo-use-of-antimalarial-drug-in-new-york-hospitals-anecdotally?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true   Permalink 12:21 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@BiruniKhorasan According to all accounts, Ibn Sina did not suffer fools. The more I read about him, the more he reminds me of @nntaleb If Ibn Sina lived in 2020 and had an encounter with a fool on Twitter, he would first call him “idiot” and then block him. 100% positive. Permalink 12:01 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I a preparing an elementary thread on what risk management means and how “evidence based” is often endangering people. Permalink 10:39 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb In by forthcoming book The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails pic.twitter.com/F7ECEhiwzB Permalink 10:26 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The IYI has a copy of The Black Swan on his shelves but mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence. (article from 3 ½ years ago) https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   Permalink 9:36 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The “evidence based” idiots such as Ioannidis not getting absence of evidence vs evidence of absence in the risk domain. https://youtu.be/FUgHKX0clhU   via @YouTube Permalink 8:19 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb That NYT? +Ran articles about irrationality of worrying about the pandemic +Opposed the travel ban +Now blaming the administration for not having stiffer travel ban https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1246776199805898752   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/czrGEeI6Lu”>  pic.twitter.com/czrGEeI6Lu Permalink 7:25 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Criminally stupid. https://twitter.com/Dhruvapandey/status/1247092388033490944   Permalink 4:15 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “Evidence based” means that she recommended in her Forbes column in late February that people wear no masks. Yes, NO masks. Because absence of evidence is not evidence based. It is hard to share the planet with such dangerous people. https://twitter.com/tarahaelle/status/1246939663086075906   Permalink 4:31 PM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Good news from Lebanon. This is the cabinet meeting in early March (when Boris & Trump had their full mugs exposed). They acted quickly. They have <20 death (~4.5 mil) 100 times less than than NY. Acting quickly pays. And wear your fucking mask! pic.twitter.com/5Ngit7ByMC Permalink 11:10 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Now, either @raoult_didier’s treatment (chloroquine) is incontrovertibly effective or, + More people are dead than claimed (in Marseilles the dead have been actively voting since the Fr. revolution) + He treats pple who don’t need treatment + Something in the water/confounder Permalink 10:51 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2) Genetics & misunderstanding of dimensionality https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics   Permalink 9:54 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The work in progress is here. Not yet the curse of dimensionality. 1) Correlation https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Fooled_by_Correlation_Common_Misinterpretations_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 9:53 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Once we are done with the epidemiological models, we will show why polygenic scores produce spurious results like these & why this claim is PURE noise. Hint: curse of dimensionality, paper to come. PS–genetics is a mess. https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1246759506325000193   Permalink 8:52 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Mike Lawler (@mikeandallie) should make his kids derive the significance of the Raoult chloroquine results, a trivial illustration –something that seems to escape medical commentators. pic.twitter.com/IUeVtw57ff Permalink 7:37 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@DrSamPappas Excellent map @ByzantinFR of genetic lineages and overlap of civilizations @_Tom_Pappas @amyriolo @MikeEmanuelFox of Eastern Mediterranean regions as inspired by a tweet from @nntaleb summer 2019 https://twitter.com/ByzantinFR/status/1138442256741031938   Permalink 7:02 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I am amazed that an error that eludes “evidence based” “scientists”, nonprobabilist statisticians, Pinker-style naive empiricists… is explained very simply by Mike to his kids. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1246785515258511360   Permalink 6:29 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@mikeandallie Explaining an important statistical idea in @nntaleb ‘s “What you see and what you don’t see” paper to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2020/04/05/sharing-a-neat-statistical-result-from-one-of-nassim-talebs-papers-with-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 6:03 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Department of hindsight: the NYT is now blaming mobility. Yet they were publishing crap saying it was not rational to panic when Yaneer, Joe, and I were advocating what looked like an “overreaction”. https://nyti.ms/3bUTtQn   Permalink 5:26 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No soft allowed; hint: you can prove the limit though using special functions. (Please note that I have been blocking those posting snide remarks; this is ONLY for those into these things.) Permalink 6:38 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Quarantine Workout pic.twitter.com/OhvzMh32XW Permalink 5:55 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam BMJ published a paper with a basic simple error and incorrect conclusions. I submitted a note but didn’t retract yet. Link to the paper and comment attached. @nntaleb https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sFZj3KWfie”>  pic.twitter.com/sFZj3KWfie Permalink 2:36 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@NickyWill100 @nntaleb’s Grandmother knew that you dummies. https://twitter.com/WorldAndScience/status/1246551885621923841   Permalink 2:36 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@NAChristakis People who are dying of COVID19 will need first-rate palliative (hospice) care. This is going to be especially the case for people who are denied ventilators or who are taken off of them (i.e., who are “extubated”). Let’s talk about this painful and poignant fact. 1/ Permalink 2:24 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@tony_zy This @Forbes article on Feb.29, when the virus was quietly spreading, still haunts me today. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/02/29/no-you-do-not-need-face-masks-for-coronavirus-they-might-increase-your-infection-risk/#24bbfdb1676c   Permalink 6:28 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@HsenAndil She3er Malte 3an l Malte cc: @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/WvpBReQ0MP Permalink 5:33 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1246331981270593536   Permalink 4:45 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb With (some) corrections pic.twitter.com/psXN7loNHl Permalink 4:28 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This 2 page paper should put the nail in the coffin of “evidence based” science and risk management. Any comments? Posting on ArXiv & looking for a journal as it is a new result in Extreme Value Theory. pic.twitter.com/dAKW7ZVjwx Permalink 3:50 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “The most important aspect of fasting is that you feel deep undirected gratitude when you break the fast.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:02 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nice summary. https://twitter.com/PoornimaL/status/1246209695745966080   Permalink 4:23 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No, on the EXPECTED Maximum (i.e. average maximum), not the Maximum expected. Permalink 1:55 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Be careful. The problem with work related conversations on web apps during this period is that, unlike water cooler schmoozes, everything you say can be recorded for life. Permalink 12:20 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb LOCALISM The higher you go the more incompetence/reckelessness (with small exceptions). If this virus ever teaches anything, it is localism. You Your family Your town Your region/county/state Federal Gov: CDC The UN/@WHO Permalink 10:09 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Surprised? No. Jobless claims has ALWAYS been power law distributed. These idiotic macroeconomists never realized it. As I said in The Black Swan econometricians are charlatans, & will STAY charlatans. My new book SCFT explains in details. pic.twitter.com/OX0IWbgzQU Permalink 7:15 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No, no, no. Under such fatness of tails for pandemics, policy is made off the expected maximum, not from scenarios devoid of error terms. Just like flood policy in the low countries. See Paper with @DrCirillo https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6   Permalink 5:12 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@johnepattison I mean this sincerely, not snarkily: Smart people I follow here — @nntaleb and @chrismartenson — have been saying for weeks that everyone should be wearing masks. What else are those people saying that we should act on NOW rather waiting until later? Permalink 4:10 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@aPosteriorChain It is now clear that someone at @WHO has a dying wish to be called an imbecile by @nntaleb, this is the only possible explanation pic.twitter.com/PjikwoAcxA Permalink 3:30 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Albert-Laszlo @barabasi was waaaaaaay ahead in determining tail events consistent w/statistics described *ahead* of time –such as cascading failures leading to power outages. I recall the power failure in NY in 2003. You must take him seriously. #PrecautionaryPrinciple https://twitter.com/barabasi/status/1245520814881091584   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vsQSvsT3M3″>  pic.twitter.com/vsQSvsT3M3 Permalink 2:42 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “There is something common to modern “liberal” and Sunni-Salafi education: They teach students answers rather than how to ask questions.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 1:27 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Remember the talk about herd immunity, or letting young people get sick and work? Stopping it fast is the only way. https://twitter.com/barabasi/status/1245520814881091584   Permalink 12:47 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The general public is more creative than bureaucrats. https://twitter.com/PLATOheraclitus/status/1245753847362072577?s=20   Permalink 9:44 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb IYI bureaucrats opposed to masks used (bogus) arguments abt the protection of the wearer (“not perfect”, etc.) They didn’t think that since it ALSO prevents (more effectively) ASYMPTOMATIC sick pple from spreading it, there wd be yuuge systemic effect. PS: @WHO is a fraud. Permalink 9:36 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@allisonpearson Of all the cruel things, the inability to rush to comfort the dying, or to comfort the bereaved after a loved one has died, may be the cruellest. #coronavirus Permalink 9:26 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@swani741 Please get on the case of this bc Pharma & their allies in corporate media are going to do everything in their power to discredit this cheap & widely available drug & anyone being honest about it. . https://www.cbsnews.com/news/merck-created-hit-list-to-destroy-neutralize-or-discredit-dissenting-doctors/   Permalink 8:59 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, an obvious test w/asymmetric signal: How many pple treated for rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, or malaria by a *certain* dosage of chloroquine or hydrochquine have been under ventilation for corona vs rest of local population? Answer wld be a v. strong statistical signal. Permalink 8:05 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@CharlestonArchi After the plague, I hope that @nntaleb will do to charlatanism in academic architecture what he has done to IQ, psychology, social sciences, etc. It would be a joy to watch it unfold here on Twitter. This glorious exchange is from 2018: pic.twitter.com/Cc3SQ4mDQh Permalink 5:35 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Il revient beaucoup, beaucoup moins cher de fermer ses frontières que de fermer ses: magasins, usines, écoles, bureaux, bordels, restaurants, cafés, stades, salles de dance, facs, glaciers, musées, écoles de ping-pong… https://twitter.com/RomainVallee/status/1245087352961335311   Permalink 4:35 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “Govt policy (when dealing with floods or pandemics) is dictated by the expected maxima of the distribution of harm, rather than the mean.” “Evidence-based” methods naively work with the expected mean, not the extremes. (paper agst BS “forecasting”) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/4Il3bwOdaF”>  pic.twitter.com/4Il3bwOdaF Permalink 3:36 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@vtchakarova Yes, more or less. You take the #RWRI pill – you end up in Incerto-land, and Taleb shows you how deep the rabbit hole goes! I am launching our first Vienna #RWRI virtual meeting with the other two RWRI alumni @Arquitect3 and @MrFels this weekend. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/lucklepper/status/1245638289270296577   Permalink 2:14 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb BS vendors will BS vend. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1245334867178655745   Permalink 5:04 PM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb New version of our paper on the tails of pandemics w/@DrCirillo With a key sentence to understand why epidemiological models become noise –as well as other attempts to forecast outcomes. https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Cw07iCOyOt”>  pic.twitter.com/Cw07iCOyOt Permalink 10:17 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Follow the money: Many people like @Kevinfolta and this charlatan @dgardner (phil the rat Tetlock’s @Ptetlock coauthor) are directly (or indirectly) paid to say that the Precautionary Principle is crap. https://twitter.com/HomegrownJoan/status/1245355452646506496   Permalink 7:24 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 5) This article makes me shiver, reminds me of the Monsanto days: pharma can BUY science. https://twitter.com/momotchiii/status/1245341089969713152?s=20   Permalink 6:29 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 4) Again the question is WHY did @WHO try to AVOID testing something yet claim “data is sparce”. You test PRECISELY because data is sparce! https://twitter.com/aknappjr/status/1245337709897322496?s=20   Permalink 6:21 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) Now we still DON’T KNOW YET if chloroquine helps, but owing to an asymmetry I would pick it over nothing any minute. Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Even in St Georges Hospital in Lebanon they get stuff like this. In NY and Italy, doctors are ignoring “official” guidelines & applying the Raoult therapy early on. Note: Raoult knows his stuff about patients/treatment, not the dynamics of epidemics. pic.twitter.com/V8sTAdXugz Permalink 5:47 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb SUSPICIOUS: + Why the WHO bias against masks & Chloroquine? Latter used by doctors in NY, Italy (combination) in early stages. + Why the smear campaign ag. Raoult? He is the most cited viologist + Recall statistical BS in Forbes/Bloomberg + Pharma shut down a factory in France pic.twitter.com/5O9DD2x36N Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@VergilDen It’s during these times of crisis that it’s good to remind yourself of those simpler days. For me, the time when Taleb and I sampled all the goodness that is Italy. I will always savor those days like one does a fine lemoncello. Gindon! https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1112642427192393729   Permalink 4:11 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@Samuel_NET @nntaleb has been saying this all along. WHO was wrong. https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1244993914962051072   Permalink 8:01 PM – 31 Mar 2020

@RomainVallee 21/02 dans LePoint. Nassim Taleb conseillant à la France de fermer immédiatement ses frontières . https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1230878610023731202?s=21   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1230878610023731202   Permalink 1:35 PM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb People can MAKE their own mask. Do not insult the public’s intelligence. https://twitter.com/RinaldoDaCosta/status/1245034220470362113?s=20   Permalink 10:17 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 850,000 now https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1231770358753173505   Permalink 10:04 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Surgeon General should be sued. We will have plenty of time to bring these dangerous idiots to account. https://twitter.com/birdxi1988/status/1244957027585134592   Permalink 10:02 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@Allvvaro Absolutely loving them while in quarantine. I don’t know why I waited so long to start reading them, but it feels like de f****** right time now. Gracias @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/ll0WJ2jged Permalink 9:51 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Serge Galam too; he is angry, very angry https://www.liberation.fr/debats/2020/03/24/masques-mais-de-qui-se-moque-t-on_1782908   via @libe Permalink 8:40 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Asymmetry: error FROM NOT wearing masks is vastly costlier than the error FROM wearing masks. This would be elementary for grandmothers (decision makers under uncertainty) but something about the @WHO & the @CDCgov w/”evidence based” BS is suspiciously blind to such a notion! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1244975847855054850   Permalink 6:16 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Now I am not saying that masks work there, rather that owing to an asymmetry you MUST wear one. Decision-making in real life is based on asymmetries. That’s the entire message of the Incerto! Permalink 6:12 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is the strongest statistical association I’ve seen w/ respect to the virus. Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. PS-Don’t get into elevators, buses, etc. unless your mask in N95 https://twitter.com/Jonn__Mc/status/1244957684820070402   Permalink 5:05 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Make your own mask, but be careful. It is more effective than nothing, but not as much as an N95. Never leave home without it. PS: the @WHO is a fraud. https://nyti.ms/3bBlyw4   Permalink 4:54 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan https://youtu.be/Tb2pXXUSzmI   via @YouTube Permalink 4:16 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@EricRWeinstein What is with you? Why don’t you say it: it’s a prisoner’s dilemma because you and the rest of our leadership failed. Your failure means that we the public should take care of our medical heroes by not buying scarce masks while you do whatever it is you do all day with WHO & CDC. https://twitter.com/surgeon_general/status/1244744427735781377   Permalink 1:25 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@iulian_v7 Attended full RWRI twice. It paid off on multiple levels. Here’s one: my portfolio performance during this crisis vs. S&P500. So, RWRI & @nntaleb books are a great investment. Will go there for the 3rd time for sure, and 4th, 5th… pic.twitter.com/bTSvNQm56M Permalink 5:54 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The @WHO shd be renamed WDO (World Disease Organization): had they not existed many lives would have been spared. Friends are smelling conspiracy in WHO’s claims (“evidence based”conflation of absence of evidence for evidence). No, it’s only incompetence. Criminal incompetence. Permalink 5:31 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Everybody comments on my ideas, nobody seems to care that I’ve lost weight (in spite of quarantine)! https://twitter.com/chasechandler/status/1244661425148133380   Permalink 3:51 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @BloombergTV @ErikSchatzker #tailrisk #insurance #keepyourhouse https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/taleb-says-it-s-too-late-for-tail-risk-hedging-slams-stimulus   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DKfmtN7uYZ”>  pic.twitter.com/DKfmtN7uYZ Permalink 2:53 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is spin: WHO is a very incompetent org. Prevented masks & were 5 steps behind. Can’t get risk asymmetry! Stat ignorant WHO now trying to do complicated “science” & degrading simple chloroquine in spite of of huge signal, using “dble blind” buzzwords. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments?fbclid=IwAR31YwxhsKm4zHtCC6RazpsqCVrAMO_mY3UUre_iyd7hiuF0_YklhwvH1NE#   Permalink 12:08 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The PDF version is free and available here. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 10:27 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The book is finally on Amazon. Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemolog… https://www.amazon.com/dp/1544508050/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_3PIGEb0XVZ6ZE   via @amazon Permalink 10:21 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@Stephen89756302 @nntaleb on a personal note, thanks: I was in Singapore when they had 14 cases, UK when they had 1, wore masks in public, didn’t check a bag, ate in hotel, self-isolation on return to US. Saw the power of your model, listened, took action for self and others. Bless you. Permalink 10:19 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@EricRWeinstein Can we get a list of the officials, leaders, institutions & spokespeople who are consciously lying about “masks not being effective in the general population” to hide their own failure to stock masks, and thus pushing our health care professionals in front of this viral train? Permalink 10:07 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CORONA models Models count # people dead and # people infected. They miss a central point: 1)~10-20% of those who get it are spending time in HELL yet w/o qualifying for hospitalization as they don’t need a ventilator. 2) We don’t know the long term reduction in LE from sequels! Permalink 6:15 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LUNG VENTILATORS & INTERMITTENCE Where varying the intensity saves lives: my paper in mathematical medicine “Convex Responses in Medicine” showing the effects of intermittence were well documented w/ventilators (Jensen’s Inequ.). Also in #Antifragile. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZjjOB0F5vO”>  pic.twitter.com/ZjjOB0F5vO Permalink 5:50 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@TommyCaillat 6ème relecture de L’Incerto en cours. Ce confinement est une aubaine si on en prends l’avantage. Lisez. Faites de l’exercise. Prenez le soleil. Mangez correctement. Pas d’excuses. @nntaleb @Mangan150 pic.twitter.com/7XE3KBGgBC Permalink 5:40 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Factoid of the day: The Montgomerys have the (Phoenician) J2 haplogroup (J2a1-Y22056 (aka Z40262)). @felhagehistoire https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/montgomery/about/background   https://twitter.com/Normandy_Post/status/1244576461882822657   Permalink 5:34 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 This is what @nntaleb calls the Ludic Fallacy. These guys either did experiments in the class room or in their minds. What they are saying are FAR from the reality. At least from my experience in China, NOBODY had this false feeling of protection while wearing the masks. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/c0uQCdksPv Permalink 7:31 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@jeitoapp Who the fuck needs a scientific paper to know that wearing a mask is better than not wearing one during a global pandemic? Is the world dumber than what I thought? https://twitter.com/jcastros/status/1244350023690747908   Permalink 1:37 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Don Bosco Ioannis Damakenos (John of Damascus) Imam Ali Socrates Thomas Aquinas https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1244342447276281856   Permalink 12:29 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@NonMeek When you’re right, you’re right. https://twitter.com/iridiumideas/status/1244322903685910529   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Kb12JxR71b”>  pic.twitter.com/Kb12JxR71b Permalink 11:29 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I don’t do interviews anymore (not my job). But newspapers narrate the twitter feed. Works. https://www.rt.com/uk/484430-taleb-let-branson-virgin-airline-go-bust/   Permalink 10:51 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Mask tutorial courtesy of @who https://twitter.com/ghosh121/status/1244266295060647938   Permalink 8:16 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Just to piss off @WHO #NewProfilePic pic.twitter.com/SZpAiyjX3y Permalink 6:52 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ask for 5, settle for 3 (but don’t tell anyone yet!) https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1244095809592926208   Permalink 6:51 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Mayor of Amioun: on the other side of the Med, very diplomatic. pic.twitter.com/AJ6M9rsq5E Permalink 6:42 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism! https://twitter.com/MarinaStavrou9/status/1244161012833583104   Permalink 6:32 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@ole_b_peters Different countries are at different stages in the pandemic, and under different levels of stress currently. That allows a little bit of load sharing. Germany responded early, e.g. the labs prepared for mass testing in January when the virus was sequenced in China. Permalink 4:27 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb In the absence of further information, there is no downside to such strategy. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1244118720932446211   Permalink 4:15 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@sarah_cone ⁦@nntaleb⁩ has been saying this for only a few decades at least. https://www-washingtonpost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/27/economic-efficiency-resilience-coronavirus/?outputType=amp   Permalink 2:23 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@MarinaStavrou9 I need to watch this again.. I need Italian Mayors to sort you ALL out the world needs Italian Mayors to sort the world out not passionless journos & clueless academics.. pic.twitter.com/yk7MES3KLG Permalink 12:14 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@Gh0xuLZHXdi3LEf Μένουμε σπίτι. pic.twitter.com/Wdeeh7478e Permalink 6:57 PM – 28 Mar 2020

@naval WHO isn’t going to warn you. CDC isn’t going to test you. FDA isn’t going to cure you. FEMA isn’t going to feed you. Save yourself. Permalink 2:54 PM – 28 Mar 2020

@ElegantiaeArbit That feel when @nntaleb and co have been issuing better, more accurate, more consistent advice for several months than the CDC, WHO, et cetera https://twitter.com/drmattmccarthy/status/1243891663162019841   Permalink 11:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@ElegantiaeArbit That feel when @nntaleb and co have been issuing better, more accurate, more consistent advice for several months than the CDC, WHO, et cetera https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841   Permalink 11:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Die Corona-Pandemie ist kein schwarzer Schwan: Warum 2020 nach Nassim Nicholas Taleb nicht mit 2008 zu vergleichen ist https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/kein-schwarzer-schwan-nassim-taleb-ueber-die-corona-pandemie-ld.1548877?mktcid=smsh&mktcval=Twitter   via @NZZ Permalink 10:21 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@amconmag Comparative advantage, the philosophical basis of free trade, works, if by “works” you mean “maximizes efficiency at the expense of redundancy and anti-fragility.” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-didnt-we-test-our-trades-antifragility-before-covid-19/   Permalink 9:45 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb With Branson the problem is compounded: + He is a tax refugee: he lives in the BVI & since UK has no worldwide taxation, pays no taxes. Yets wants the UK taxpayer’s backstop. + He walks around virtue-faking with TED/Davos crowd. Let him go bust. Planes will fly w/new owners! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1243657604234166275   Permalink 7:35 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism doesn’t mean total anarchy for communes to do what they want. It is fractal (multiscale), but w/maximal control at the bottom. Localism allows central government to impose interzones lockdowns, but towns can shut themselves if they wish (Italian cities during plague). https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1243896621265498114   Permalink 7:24 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The worst in the hall of shame is @CassSunstein who represents all that’s evil in the IYIs: he pathologizes cautious people by finding some… disorder He wanted the Obama admin to manipulate pple away from their caution against GMOs by hiding labels. https://twitter.com/AriSchulman/status/1243502730200653826?s=20   Permalink 7:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@Nlitsardopoulos The point of NNT is that of scale and acceleration. E.g the time it took a boat to get from Crimea to Genoa in 14th century, compared to the time it took an airplane to get from London to New York. Permalink 6:39 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ordered masks on Amazon 2 weeks ago. The seller decided to not charge me. Will send money to rescue efforts as it is unfair for me to benefit from my media presence, particularly that it relates to the corona hedging. pic.twitter.com/TYmWOR8XGs Permalink 4:07 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It is largely for the sake of these airlines that governments did not stop traffic from China. Now taxpayers need to bail them out, spending trillions. Penny wise, Trillions of dollars foolish. pic.twitter.com/3xj5mrlDgc Permalink 2:54 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I immediately smelled a rat with 10 Downing when I was told their chief advisor was using, liking, or doing something with @PTetlock’s “Superforecasters”. I realized he must be a BS vendor/IYI. Turned out he was. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 12:39 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb “Life is long gamma”, RIP Anthony Glickman https://twitter.com/DaliaGlickman/status/1243596854799077381   Permalink 10:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It is common for people like Fauci to know their stuff, but to not understand risk of events. Same with epidemiologists as we saw. The carpenter fallacy: to get an ideas about probabilities of tail sequences at roulette, hire a probabilist not a carpenter. @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/CathyYoung63/status/1243471230809800706   Permalink 10:26 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Meds & Anatolians refer to themselves via patronymic up to one generation (ides,akis,ian,ben,etc.), like N. Europeans (sson), but some strange villages go matronymic: Jean de Florette (Provence)… Or Kousba, Lebanon: my name there is “Nassim Minerva”, driver:”Michel Rosa”, etc. Permalink 10:13 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@jamesaknight Fair play to them – Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock and Chris Whitty have clearly read this tweet and delivered… #skininthegame https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238455607717486592   Permalink 9:33 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@churchesuncut Corporations have figured out that politicians are cheaper to buy than insurance #nnt Permalink 9:30 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You https://link.medium.com/2QFx3uiL94   Permalink 9:21 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb An interesting regularity. Greeks refer to name and place of origin, even in Levant (Athenadoros of Berytus, Lukianos of Emesa,… , Shmokron of Alexandria) S Semitic speakers refer to their ancestors: Jehoshua bn X bn X bn X bn David… As in the Bible you get long genealogy! https://twitter.com/Safaitic/status/1243558074356563975   Permalink 8:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@RepThomasMassie (10/11) This stimulus should go straight to the people rather than being funneled through banks and corporations like this bill is doing. Permalink 8:48 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@Safaitic #coronaepigraphy day 13: How many generations of your family can you count back? This #Safaitic inscription contains a genealogy of 20 generations. Assuming a generation = 20 years, this author knew the names of his ancestors going back 400 years! A thread on his lineage. pic.twitter.com/sCsEgWI4OR Permalink 8:18 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@normonics Libertarians dont get liberty It’s not about doing whatever the f you want despite how it impacts others It’s doing whatever the f you want CONDITIONAL on not harming others https://twitter.com/FreeStateNH/status/1243386499657154560   Permalink 8:10 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb DISCOVERY DU JOUR Blocking idiots on Twitter after telling them “I block idiots” “Sorry, I block idiots” “Sorry, I block idiots, nothing personal” is not a violation of Twitter’s terms of service (& the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany). pic.twitter.com/kXRnwFkrES Permalink 6:27 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Before weightlifting, or course. https://twitter.com/MasaSkiba/status/1243265676158160896   Permalink 5:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Few people know that Boris Johnson is Turkish on his paternal side: his grandfather Osman Kemal became “Wilfred Johnson”. Hence most likely the East Med J2 haplogroup… https://twitter.com/EastMedMonitor/status/1243521365958934530   Permalink 5:56 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It was NOT a 30 sigma. Anyone using sigma in economics is a fraud. pic.twitter.com/P4eKmf1dsX Permalink 5:50 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, if after that jobless claims number anyone still uses macroeconomic tools w/”variance” “standard deviation”, “kurtosis” etc. should be arrested. I said in The Black Swan & next textbook (Chap 3) that economists are frauds. This is the PROOF before the last move. pic.twitter.com/Q3o6SwPbk9 Permalink 5:48 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Respect (both from me and from our common friend in the South East) https://twitter.com/GrantSSC/status/1243241516740407296   Permalink 5:26 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Fat Tony don’t believe much in conspiracy theories. Why? The “geniuses” at the top have proven time and time again they’re too stupid to pull anyting that elaborate off… https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200   Permalink 5:11 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@AviSolomon8 @chrislhayes @bruces The Greeks have not forgotten the lessons of history… pic.twitter.com/FjKqUtSQa7 Permalink 3:07 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@MasaSkiba “You cannot hedge the risk of epidemics, unless you stop airplanes from flying.” @nntaleb May 19, 2010. pic.twitter.com/LRq1UTCA8k Permalink 12:56 PM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Friendship and enmity are both path dependent. Former friends (rats) are permanent enemies & former enemies are permanent friends. “I treat my friends as temporary pre-enemies, my enemies as temporary pre-friends, & my post-friends as permanent enemies.” Bed of Procrustes Permalink 12:04 PM – 26 Mar 2020

@PZalloua We need to know how the virus is spreading in the community and who is more likely to spread it? The more we know the better we can prevent @yaneerbaryam @nntaleb @normonics pic.twitter.com/Sm35nQxk1x Permalink 8:32 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Gods watch over our BSBPB (BS Busting Probabilist Brigade, includes the anti-naive-probabilism school of @HarryDCrane, the ergodic one of @ole_b_peters, and many more): Flawed paper by nudge IYI @CassSunstein had 107 dowloads in 6 months (Compared to 10K-100K for us). pic.twitter.com/ee4obXhV1f Permalink 7:01 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You https://link.medium.com/2QFx3uiL94   Permalink 4:51 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@Jaffer22915438 1/ Friends, my twitter feed has become a Real World Twitter Institute (nod to Nassim). Decided to chronicle this entrepreneurial journey in crisis distribution filling a supply gap. Yes, we make money but challenges pop up daily. Permalink 4:51 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I just published Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You https://link.medium.com/3h53P88H94   Permalink 5:16 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@normonics pic.twitter.com/Wgi8nG23A3 Permalink 5:13 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Forbes’ @tarahaelle wrote “showed no significant difference in outcomes between those who received the drug & those who received usual care.” In other words: “showed no significant difference in outcomes FOR THOSE WHO DID NOT NEED IT” since those they are discussing were CURED Permalink 4:59 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Let me explain why Forbes’s @tarahaelle & Bloomberg’s @Business are making a statistical fraud concerning chloroquine: + You NEVER look for people who healed on their own on BOTH sides: 14 pple who recovered w/& 14 pple w/o Cloroquine tell you NOTHING about the drug. Fraudsters https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242788451986128899   Permalink 1:32 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@IvanBlecic @nntaleb, @yaneerbaryam & the gang won this debate. There’s an expression in Italian: “la merda viene a galla”. Fascinating the sheer SPEED w/ which BS has been detected in the last 2 months. Wld’ve taken years (if ever), dismantled one after another, in nifty 3-days instalments. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242794290746703874   Permalink 1:26 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is Fake News, Statistically. Forbes should remove https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/03/25/chloroquine-use-for-covid-19-shows-no-benefit-in-first-small-but-limited-controlled-trial/#323249324c86   Permalink 1:12 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism du Jour Many Italian towns survived the Plague by closing their gates. https://twitter.com/predragbrajovic/status/1242860576742821889   Permalink 10:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism du Jour Many Italian towns survived the Plague by closing their gates. https://twitter.com/PredragBrajovic/status/1242860576742821889   Permalink 10:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@phl43 pic.twitter.com/d2Ihcvc2Pt Permalink 9:59 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY & ASYMMETRY Let me make my point clear. Does Chloroquine work? I am not sure. But…if infected & very sick, would I take Chloroquine? 100% Yes. In the right dosage: it has been around for decades & we know its side effect & drug interactions. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242788451986128899   Permalink 9:35 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@TMFStoffel If I had to read just two paragraphs of @yaneerbaryam and @nntaleb’s op-ed in the UK, this would be it. But you have an extra two minutes, so you should read the whole thing: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jUlsZjjV0O”>  pic.twitter.com/jUlsZjjV0O Permalink 9:14 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@drjamesdinic 500 patients in northern Italy are starting to breathe thanks to hacked scuba gear, modified with 3D printers. #COVIDー19 solutions! https://www.google.com/amp/s/dgiluz.wordpress.com/2020/03/23/its-working/amp/   @joerogan Permalink 8:02 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine wants to lecture live on social media while writing equations on a classroom blackboard. Any tripod with remote ctrl (for Iphone 11) that you recommend? Permalink 8:01 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ @DrCirillo & I looked at the data, & we were shocked: it has the FATTEST tails I’ve seen. Fatter than the Levy distribution (alpha<½). Under such DEEP uncertainty you never gamble with idiotic scenario models. Never. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-17   Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ @DrCirillo & I looked at the data, & we were shocked: it has the FATTEST tails I’ve seen. Fatter than the Levy distribution (alpha<½). Under such DEEP uncertainty you never gamble with idiotic scenario models. Never. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-17   Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@TaroniAndrea When all this is over, @nntaleb will still be an asshole. But he will also still have been right. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242794290746703874   Permalink 6:33 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) In other words: Compare # of people who don’t recover but received Chloroquine to # people who don’t recover and receive nothing. Bloomberg should not be spreading this dangerous BS! Permalink 5:46 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The UK’s coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn’t | Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 5:43 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Statistical flaw in the conclusion: That study says almost NOTHING about Chloroquine. The comparison now is conditioned on BOTH being cured. You need cases without spontaneous recovery, such as Reault’s. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/hydroxychloroquine-no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study   via @business Permalink 5:20 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@Jaffer22915438 1/ Do you realize how f*cked up this system is to have someone like me up-fronting millions of dollars to bring masks into the US. 3 weeks ago, I did not know an N95 mask from a dust mask. Not a saint, please. We will make money, but the system is dysfunctional. Permalink 4:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Statesman. https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1242479407031296000   Permalink 12:56 PM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb With @DrCirillo. Forgot to thank @BertZwart1 Permalink 10:14 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases: Clearly a steep power law. You need vigilance. Complicated epidemiological models are like studies of forks and knives on the Titanic. https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   via @academia Permalink 10:08 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Respect https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1242469195410894849   Permalink 9:59 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Beats the NY library… pic.twitter.com/MEgjh3uCbs Permalink 8:44 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 A beautiful application of the shadow mean method on pandemics ( It allows you to derive the expected value when the fat tailed distribution is bounded, in this case, by human population on earth ). I was impressed by this method when @nntaleb and @DrCirillo discussed it at #rwri https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242443727366479874   Permalink 8:27 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And trading, of course. Permalink 8:11 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Math, Twitter, and weightlifting. Same time. Thanks, @GrantSSC for help. pic.twitter.com/DdBk31H6yo Permalink 7:52 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Our fat tails paper shd limit these models for entertainment only pic.twitter.com/ZVIZYPkmPy Permalink 7:30 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is a preview of the paper with @DrCirillo: contagious pandemics are fat tailed. Anyone using epidemiological model is like someone counting spoons on the Titanic. pic.twitter.com/HvJfJWL6zJ Permalink 6:30 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb makeshift… Was not a pun but a genuine typo. Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Grant @GrantSSC is starting to make lemon out of lemonade, like @Jaffer22915438: delivering makeshit weightlifting equipment to people stuck at home. https://twitter.com/bmiloy/status/1242250956705681408   Permalink 6:01 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Lesson from a long experience with model blowups:@neil_ferguson, if you need a model w/”thousands of lines”, this is not a model useable for real world risk & decisions–rather something with the FRAGILITY of a house built with matches to impress some tenure committee. https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713   Permalink 4:43 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb localism at its best https://twitter.com/AndrewCesare/status/1242174265547468803   Permalink 2:04 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Do you know how to sew? Make masks for hospitals, nursing homes, rehab facilities, or yourself. Here is information how. Spread the word https://necsi.edu/sewing-masks   Permalink 9:41 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANCIENT LANGUAGES DU JOUR Karshum(Kirsh), pum (temm/famm), 3inum, appum(aff, anf), uznum (udn, dayné) are preserved. Interesting: birkum BRK=> RKB (rekbé), tikkum maybe ta2m (to cover neck?) and most interesting: puridum => fard (single) https://twitter.com/mynemosyne54/status/1242061284704690177   Permalink 9:16 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb One small problem. It is currently in the nation state of Turkey. https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/1242010478693490688   Permalink 8:11 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I don’t lift. I just hoard plates as a hobby. https://twitter.com/hoody_pl/status/1242100556883165186?s=20   Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Bought more plates, just in case. pic.twitter.com/LLuiUuzNX1 Permalink 7:33 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Now this correlation is a correlation. Remove points and it stays the same. It may tell us however, that richer countries tend to test more, or that people travel much more into and out of richer countries. Check a network graph. https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1241850312203415552   Permalink 5:12 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@mynemosyne54 Body parts in Akkadian pic.twitter.com/9OxNApddOk Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@cdipaola62 WHO finally has “data” Universal Precautions for Respiratory/Droplet borne viruses has been warranted since outbreak When uncertain—>act with Precaution ⁦@endCOVID ⁦@nntaleb⁩ ⁦@yaneerbaryam⁩ ⁦@normonics⁩ ⁦@TuckerCarlson⁩ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-considers-airborne-precautions-for-medical-staff-after-study-shows-coronavirus-can-survive-in-air.html   Permalink 1:41 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Too late, De Blasio. You need to be one step ahead, not three steps behind. https://twitter.com/birdxi1988/status/1241885799525875712   Permalink 5:59 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 We need to “overreact” to fight the virus, this doesn’t look like that @trishankkarthik @normonics @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/nycmayor/status/1241860593751113732   Permalink 5:33 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@LorenzoWVilla Do you want to try this one? For (a,b,c) real and positive pic.twitter.com/1nUUz3jvu2 Permalink 2:37 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Something standard Libertarians don’t get (but localists get very well): liberty & threats to others don’t scale the way they think they do. Libertarians need to translate threats to individuals into threats to the collective without naive linear scaling. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1239243622916259841   Permalink 2:36 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb To relax during the quarantine https://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/1241300006939713537   Permalink 11:06 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 6) Saying “it is nobody’s fault” hence let’s help corps is vicious: risk management=cash to face eventualities WITHOUT knowing what they WILL BE: we have 2 kidneys SO we don’t have to predict how they one will be harmed. Except that a pandemic is NOT a Black Swan. (INCERTO) pic.twitter.com/YWc5xAt7rc Permalink 10:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 6) Saying “it is nobody’s fault” hence let’s help corps is vicious: risk management=cash to face eventualities WITHOUT knowing what they WILL BE: we have 2 kidneys SO we don’t have to predict how they one will be harmed. Except that a pandemic is NOT a Black Swan. (INCERTO) pic.twitter.com/YWc5xAt7rc Permalink 10:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic | Evidence-based science | inspired by @nntaleb Support my work https://gumroad.com/offshorecomic   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1240641133820207104   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1240714702281306117   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JggQip7c4x”>  pic.twitter.com/JggQip7c4x Permalink 9:56 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Commentary: “Few solid” I meant “a few solid” (i.e. sufficient to show Harry doesn’t just publish to gain status). Soon we will see the end of pseudo-credentalization/academic poseur. Permalink 9:01 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb THE END OF CITATION RINGS Harry Crane, probabilist (mathematical stat),knows his shit. Few solid publications, 350 citations. David Spiegelhalter,”statistician” 100s of pubs, Member of prestigious societies, 111,000 citations. Watch Harry take Spiegelhalter to the cleaners. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1241748419879763968   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5p2qyRTnRD”>  pic.twitter.com/5p2qyRTnRD Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) CEOs of bailed out companies must disburse PAST bonuses. Facing the GBRT (Generalized Bob Rubin Trade) where someone has a free option. pic.twitter.com/lH9N1dur58 Permalink 8:31 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) CEOs of bailed out companies must disburse PAST bonuses. Facing the GBRT (Generalized Bob Rubin Trade) where someone has a free option. pic.twitter.com/lH9N1dur58 Permalink 8:31 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This result is very robust. Paper posted soon. As probabilist @BertZwart1 (specialist in Extreme Value Theory) observes, this is the result of parameter stochasticity in the SIR model. Making parameters deterministic is what was incompetent in the UK government model. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1241451807907491845   Permalink 7:47 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I was actually teasing them. A more “elegant” tweet would have been: “It says a lot about them, but also something about you”. Permalink 6:49 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) The shareholder should not never end up being rewarded for lack of hedging/insurance. He/she should go first. https://twitter.com/nikola_sock/status/1241704778671013888?s=20   Permalink 5:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb When your archenemies give you praise, it says something about them, but also a lot about you. https://twitter.com/hlithskjolf/status/1241672103931326464   Permalink 5:43 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I’ve learned from a long life that someone close to you with a gun can be controlled if you are trained; worry about someone with a knife. https://twitter.com/digvijoy_c/status/1241550485762592769   Permalink 5:32 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 3) Airlines/Boeing are lobbying for bailouts, which they will get. How about the small corner restaurant? The independent tour guide? The personal trainer? The prostitute? The barber? The hotdog vendor living from tourists near the Met Museum? Last time (2008) they were ignored. Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb In PRINCIPIA POLITICA: pic.twitter.com/2WPkzAcjxA Permalink 5:21 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Explain to me why we should spent taxpayer money to bailout companies (airlines) who spent their cash buying their own stock so the CEO gets optionality, instead of having a crisis buffer. We should bail out individuals based on needs, not corporations. #Moralhazard Permalink 6:21 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Many people stock up on pasta. Others on toilet papers. Some go for wine. And some people stock up on Olympic weight plates. pic.twitter.com/bJq3KsQmch Permalink 5:33 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Thankful to @SamHarrisOrg. The problemo is too big to worry about personal enmities. https://twitter.com/SamHarrisOrg/status/1239267580755365888   Permalink 5:26 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ In other words, these people MUST have something in common that makes them susceptible to the virus: 4 is too yuuuge to be dismissed as a coincidence. (Conditional probabilities are low for healthy and young, so a few draws are <10^-4). Hidden comorbidity is too explanatory. Permalink 12:55 PM – 21 Mar 2020