Tag Archives: NYT

Sue, @WHO, NYT, LOCALISM, Chloroquine, Asymmetry, Masks, Branson, @CassSunstein, Superforecasters, De Blasio

The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Universa Inv. & NYU Tandon)

Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You
(With Mark Spitznagel)

Why should we spend taxpayer money to bailout companies who spent their cash (and often even borrowed to generate that cash) to buy their own stock (so the CEO gets optionality), instead of building a rainy day buffer? Such bailouts punish those who acted conservatively and harms them in the long run, favoring the fool and the rent-seeker.

Die Corona-Pandemie ist kein schwarzer Schwan: Warum 2020 nach Nassim Taleb nicht mit 2008 zu vergleichen ist


@nntaleb Flooded by journo/TV/podcts to talk abt #BlackSwan My business is research/writing, not conversing w/ bullshitters; they shd read my books… & tweets! Harari has a staff of 12 handling stuff. Me: staff of 0, but email robot deletes interview requests not from friends. Gabish? Permalink 10:12 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The legal system will fix the problem. Sue owners (private equity funds) & managers for knowingly endangering your life. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1247561089233158146   Permalink 9:44 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The argument by the @WHO imbeciles & journo fellow travelers that masks “can give a false sense of security” is interesting. Let’s apply it to: +seat belts +airbags +helmets +door locks +condoms +circuit breakers +parachutes +bulletproof vests +fire alarms +scholomorochs … Permalink 9:17 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The argument by the @WHO imbeciles & journo fellow travelers that masks “can give a false sense of security” is interesting. Let’s apply it to: +seat belts +airbags +helmets +door locks +condoms +circuit breakers +parachutes +bulletproof vests +fire alarms +scholomorochs … Permalink 9:17 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb As I said, the problem we face is “science” journalism. A real problem. #AbsenceofEvidenceisNotEvidenceofAbsenceParticularlyUnderRiskAsymmetries https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1247506964046843905?s=20   Permalink 8:05 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Something tells me the quarantine might last longer than planned. pic.twitter.com/FGJNOKgYA8 Permalink 4:50 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Levantine is not Arabic Permalink 7:08 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I can provide some training if you need, @NAChristakis. God (or evolution) invented curse words for a reason. https://twitter.com/nachristakis/status/1247338300706361345   Permalink 6:55 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Idiots! Scientism kills pple’s innate reasoning abilities & survival instinct You don’t wear a mask jus because you have evidence that transmission is airborne. You wear a mask because YOU DON’T KNOW whether transmission is airborne. #Asymmetry. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-airborne-go-outside-masks/609235/   Permalink 6:22 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) Il faut arrêter de me casser les pieds! Marseille, en anglais, s’écrit avec un s. Permalink 3:18 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@PaulSkallas he ended up deleting the tweet pic.twitter.com/LEbF4jI7bB Permalink 1:36 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2/ I wrote this for Mike’s children for them to understand statistical significance, something Bloomberg, Forbes, NYT journalists are not getting yet spreading confusion. So unless they cook their numbers in Marseilles, there is preliminary significance. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1246809237050871810?s=20   Permalink 12:43 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@ejajo Written in 2016, happening now: “They can thus cause monstrous iatrogenics[1] without even feeling a shade of a guilt, because they are convinced that they mean well and that they can be thus justified to ignore the deep effect on reality.” [1] Harm done by the healer. #IYI Permalink 12:33 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Not surprising given my analysis of the Marseilles data (see tweet w/the Mathematica file). The question is how large the effect. Also why the smear campaign ag. Raoult? OK, he’s the most cited virologist who talks on TV like a TV healer; doesn’t help. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/491358-cuomo-use-of-antimalarial-drug-in-new-york-hospitals-anecdotally?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true   Permalink 12:21 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@BiruniKhorasan According to all accounts, Ibn Sina did not suffer fools. The more I read about him, the more he reminds me of @nntaleb If Ibn Sina lived in 2020 and had an encounter with a fool on Twitter, he would first call him “idiot” and then block him. 100% positive. Permalink 12:01 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I a preparing an elementary thread on what risk management means and how “evidence based” is often endangering people. Permalink 10:39 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb In by forthcoming book The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails pic.twitter.com/F7ECEhiwzB Permalink 10:26 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The IYI has a copy of The Black Swan on his shelves but mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence. (article from 3 ½ years ago) https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   Permalink 9:36 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The “evidence based” idiots such as Ioannidis not getting absence of evidence vs evidence of absence in the risk domain. https://youtu.be/FUgHKX0clhU   via @YouTube Permalink 8:19 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb That NYT? +Ran articles about irrationality of worrying about the pandemic +Opposed the travel ban +Now blaming the administration for not having stiffer travel ban https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1246776199805898752   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/czrGEeI6Lu”>  pic.twitter.com/czrGEeI6Lu Permalink 7:25 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Criminally stupid. https://twitter.com/Dhruvapandey/status/1247092388033490944   Permalink 4:15 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “Evidence based” means that she recommended in her Forbes column in late February that people wear no masks. Yes, NO masks. Because absence of evidence is not evidence based. It is hard to share the planet with such dangerous people. https://twitter.com/tarahaelle/status/1246939663086075906   Permalink 4:31 PM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Good news from Lebanon. This is the cabinet meeting in early March (when Boris & Trump had their full mugs exposed). They acted quickly. They have <20 death (~4.5 mil) 100 times less than than NY. Acting quickly pays. And wear your fucking mask! pic.twitter.com/5Ngit7ByMC Permalink 11:10 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Now, either @raoult_didier’s treatment (chloroquine) is incontrovertibly effective or, + More people are dead than claimed (in Marseilles the dead have been actively voting since the Fr. revolution) + He treats pple who don’t need treatment + Something in the water/confounder Permalink 10:51 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2) Genetics & misunderstanding of dimensionality https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics   Permalink 9:54 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The work in progress is here. Not yet the curse of dimensionality. 1) Correlation https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Fooled_by_Correlation_Common_Misinterpretations_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 9:53 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Once we are done with the epidemiological models, we will show why polygenic scores produce spurious results like these & why this claim is PURE noise. Hint: curse of dimensionality, paper to come. PS–genetics is a mess. https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1246759506325000193   Permalink 8:52 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Mike Lawler (@mikeandallie) should make his kids derive the significance of the Raoult chloroquine results, a trivial illustration –something that seems to escape medical commentators. pic.twitter.com/IUeVtw57ff Permalink 7:37 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@DrSamPappas Excellent map @ByzantinFR of genetic lineages and overlap of civilizations @_Tom_Pappas @amyriolo @MikeEmanuelFox of Eastern Mediterranean regions as inspired by a tweet from @nntaleb summer 2019 https://twitter.com/ByzantinFR/status/1138442256741031938   Permalink 7:02 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I am amazed that an error that eludes “evidence based” “scientists”, nonprobabilist statisticians, Pinker-style naive empiricists… is explained very simply by Mike to his kids. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1246785515258511360   Permalink 6:29 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@mikeandallie Explaining an important statistical idea in @nntaleb ‘s “What you see and what you don’t see” paper to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2020/04/05/sharing-a-neat-statistical-result-from-one-of-nassim-talebs-papers-with-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 6:03 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Department of hindsight: the NYT is now blaming mobility. Yet they were publishing crap saying it was not rational to panic when Yaneer, Joe, and I were advocating what looked like an “overreaction”. https://nyti.ms/3bUTtQn   Permalink 5:26 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No soft allowed; hint: you can prove the limit though using special functions. (Please note that I have been blocking those posting snide remarks; this is ONLY for those into these things.) Permalink 6:38 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Quarantine Workout pic.twitter.com/OhvzMh32XW Permalink 5:55 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam BMJ published a paper with a basic simple error and incorrect conclusions. I submitted a note but didn’t retract yet. Link to the paper and comment attached. @nntaleb https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sFZj3KWfie”>  pic.twitter.com/sFZj3KWfie Permalink 2:36 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@NickyWill100 @nntaleb’s Grandmother knew that you dummies. https://twitter.com/WorldAndScience/status/1246551885621923841   Permalink 2:36 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@NAChristakis People who are dying of COVID19 will need first-rate palliative (hospice) care. This is going to be especially the case for people who are denied ventilators or who are taken off of them (i.e., who are “extubated”). Let’s talk about this painful and poignant fact. 1/ Permalink 2:24 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@tony_zy This @Forbes article on Feb.29, when the virus was quietly spreading, still haunts me today. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/02/29/no-you-do-not-need-face-masks-for-coronavirus-they-might-increase-your-infection-risk/#24bbfdb1676c   Permalink 6:28 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@HsenAndil She3er Malte 3an l Malte cc: @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/WvpBReQ0MP Permalink 5:33 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1246331981270593536   Permalink 4:45 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb With (some) corrections pic.twitter.com/psXN7loNHl Permalink 4:28 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This 2 page paper should put the nail in the coffin of “evidence based” science and risk management. Any comments? Posting on ArXiv & looking for a journal as it is a new result in Extreme Value Theory. pic.twitter.com/dAKW7ZVjwx Permalink 3:50 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “The most important aspect of fasting is that you feel deep undirected gratitude when you break the fast.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:02 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nice summary. https://twitter.com/PoornimaL/status/1246209695745966080   Permalink 4:23 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No, on the EXPECTED Maximum (i.e. average maximum), not the Maximum expected. Permalink 1:55 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Be careful. The problem with work related conversations on web apps during this period is that, unlike water cooler schmoozes, everything you say can be recorded for life. Permalink 12:20 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb LOCALISM The higher you go the more incompetence/reckelessness (with small exceptions). If this virus ever teaches anything, it is localism. You Your family Your town Your region/county/state Federal Gov: CDC The UN/@WHO Permalink 10:09 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Surprised? No. Jobless claims has ALWAYS been power law distributed. These idiotic macroeconomists never realized it. As I said in The Black Swan econometricians are charlatans, & will STAY charlatans. My new book SCFT explains in details. pic.twitter.com/OX0IWbgzQU Permalink 7:15 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No, no, no. Under such fatness of tails for pandemics, policy is made off the expected maximum, not from scenarios devoid of error terms. Just like flood policy in the low countries. See Paper with @DrCirillo https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6   Permalink 5:12 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@johnepattison I mean this sincerely, not snarkily: Smart people I follow here — @nntaleb and @chrismartenson — have been saying for weeks that everyone should be wearing masks. What else are those people saying that we should act on NOW rather waiting until later? Permalink 4:10 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@aPosteriorChain It is now clear that someone at @WHO has a dying wish to be called an imbecile by @nntaleb, this is the only possible explanation pic.twitter.com/PjikwoAcxA Permalink 3:30 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Albert-Laszlo @barabasi was waaaaaaay ahead in determining tail events consistent w/statistics described *ahead* of time –such as cascading failures leading to power outages. I recall the power failure in NY in 2003. You must take him seriously. #PrecautionaryPrinciple https://twitter.com/barabasi/status/1245520814881091584   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vsQSvsT3M3″>  pic.twitter.com/vsQSvsT3M3 Permalink 2:42 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “There is something common to modern “liberal” and Sunni-Salafi education: They teach students answers rather than how to ask questions.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 1:27 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Remember the talk about herd immunity, or letting young people get sick and work? Stopping it fast is the only way. https://twitter.com/barabasi/status/1245520814881091584   Permalink 12:47 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The general public is more creative than bureaucrats. https://twitter.com/PLATOheraclitus/status/1245753847362072577?s=20   Permalink 9:44 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb IYI bureaucrats opposed to masks used (bogus) arguments abt the protection of the wearer (“not perfect”, etc.) They didn’t think that since it ALSO prevents (more effectively) ASYMPTOMATIC sick pple from spreading it, there wd be yuuge systemic effect. PS: @WHO is a fraud. Permalink 9:36 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@allisonpearson Of all the cruel things, the inability to rush to comfort the dying, or to comfort the bereaved after a loved one has died, may be the cruellest. #coronavirus Permalink 9:26 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@swani741 Please get on the case of this bc Pharma & their allies in corporate media are going to do everything in their power to discredit this cheap & widely available drug & anyone being honest about it. . https://www.cbsnews.com/news/merck-created-hit-list-to-destroy-neutralize-or-discredit-dissenting-doctors/   Permalink 8:59 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, an obvious test w/asymmetric signal: How many pple treated for rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, or malaria by a *certain* dosage of chloroquine or hydrochquine have been under ventilation for corona vs rest of local population? Answer wld be a v. strong statistical signal. Permalink 8:05 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@CharlestonArchi After the plague, I hope that @nntaleb will do to charlatanism in academic architecture what he has done to IQ, psychology, social sciences, etc. It would be a joy to watch it unfold here on Twitter. This glorious exchange is from 2018: pic.twitter.com/Cc3SQ4mDQh Permalink 5:35 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Il revient beaucoup, beaucoup moins cher de fermer ses frontières que de fermer ses: magasins, usines, écoles, bureaux, bordels, restaurants, cafés, stades, salles de dance, facs, glaciers, musées, écoles de ping-pong… https://twitter.com/RomainVallee/status/1245087352961335311   Permalink 4:35 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “Govt policy (when dealing with floods or pandemics) is dictated by the expected maxima of the distribution of harm, rather than the mean.” “Evidence-based” methods naively work with the expected mean, not the extremes. (paper agst BS “forecasting”) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/4Il3bwOdaF”>  pic.twitter.com/4Il3bwOdaF Permalink 3:36 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@vtchakarova Yes, more or less. You take the #RWRI pill – you end up in Incerto-land, and Taleb shows you how deep the rabbit hole goes! I am launching our first Vienna #RWRI virtual meeting with the other two RWRI alumni @Arquitect3 and @MrFels this weekend. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/lucklepper/status/1245638289270296577   Permalink 2:14 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb BS vendors will BS vend. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1245334867178655745   Permalink 5:04 PM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb New version of our paper on the tails of pandemics w/@DrCirillo With a key sentence to understand why epidemiological models become noise –as well as other attempts to forecast outcomes. https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Cw07iCOyOt”>  pic.twitter.com/Cw07iCOyOt Permalink 10:17 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Follow the money: Many people like @Kevinfolta and this charlatan @dgardner (phil the rat Tetlock’s @Ptetlock coauthor) are directly (or indirectly) paid to say that the Precautionary Principle is crap. https://twitter.com/HomegrownJoan/status/1245355452646506496   Permalink 7:24 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 5) This article makes me shiver, reminds me of the Monsanto days: pharma can BUY science. https://twitter.com/momotchiii/status/1245341089969713152?s=20   Permalink 6:29 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 4) Again the question is WHY did @WHO try to AVOID testing something yet claim “data is sparce”. You test PRECISELY because data is sparce! https://twitter.com/aknappjr/status/1245337709897322496?s=20   Permalink 6:21 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) Now we still DON’T KNOW YET if chloroquine helps, but owing to an asymmetry I would pick it over nothing any minute. Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Even in St Georges Hospital in Lebanon they get stuff like this. In NY and Italy, doctors are ignoring “official” guidelines & applying the Raoult therapy early on. Note: Raoult knows his stuff about patients/treatment, not the dynamics of epidemics. pic.twitter.com/V8sTAdXugz Permalink 5:47 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb SUSPICIOUS: + Why the WHO bias against masks & Chloroquine? Latter used by doctors in NY, Italy (combination) in early stages. + Why the smear campaign ag. Raoult? He is the most cited viologist + Recall statistical BS in Forbes/Bloomberg + Pharma shut down a factory in France pic.twitter.com/5O9DD2x36N Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@VergilDen It’s during these times of crisis that it’s good to remind yourself of those simpler days. For me, the time when Taleb and I sampled all the goodness that is Italy. I will always savor those days like one does a fine lemoncello. Gindon! https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1112642427192393729   Permalink 4:11 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@Samuel_NET @nntaleb has been saying this all along. WHO was wrong. https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1244993914962051072   Permalink 8:01 PM – 31 Mar 2020

@RomainVallee 21/02 dans LePoint. Nassim Taleb conseillant à la France de fermer immédiatement ses frontières . https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1230878610023731202?s=21   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1230878610023731202   Permalink 1:35 PM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb People can MAKE their own mask. Do not insult the public’s intelligence. https://twitter.com/RinaldoDaCosta/status/1245034220470362113?s=20   Permalink 10:17 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 850,000 now https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1231770358753173505   Permalink 10:04 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Surgeon General should be sued. We will have plenty of time to bring these dangerous idiots to account. https://twitter.com/birdxi1988/status/1244957027585134592   Permalink 10:02 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@Allvvaro Absolutely loving them while in quarantine. I don’t know why I waited so long to start reading them, but it feels like de f****** right time now. Gracias @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/ll0WJ2jged Permalink 9:51 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Serge Galam too; he is angry, very angry https://www.liberation.fr/debats/2020/03/24/masques-mais-de-qui-se-moque-t-on_1782908   via @libe Permalink 8:40 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Asymmetry: error FROM NOT wearing masks is vastly costlier than the error FROM wearing masks. This would be elementary for grandmothers (decision makers under uncertainty) but something about the @WHO & the @CDCgov w/”evidence based” BS is suspiciously blind to such a notion! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1244975847855054850   Permalink 6:16 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Now I am not saying that masks work there, rather that owing to an asymmetry you MUST wear one. Decision-making in real life is based on asymmetries. That’s the entire message of the Incerto! Permalink 6:12 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is the strongest statistical association I’ve seen w/ respect to the virus. Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. PS-Don’t get into elevators, buses, etc. unless your mask in N95 https://twitter.com/Jonn__Mc/status/1244957684820070402   Permalink 5:05 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Make your own mask, but be careful. It is more effective than nothing, but not as much as an N95. Never leave home without it. PS: the @WHO is a fraud. https://nyti.ms/3bBlyw4   Permalink 4:54 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan https://youtu.be/Tb2pXXUSzmI   via @YouTube Permalink 4:16 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@EricRWeinstein What is with you? Why don’t you say it: it’s a prisoner’s dilemma because you and the rest of our leadership failed. Your failure means that we the public should take care of our medical heroes by not buying scarce masks while you do whatever it is you do all day with WHO & CDC. https://twitter.com/surgeon_general/status/1244744427735781377   Permalink 1:25 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@iulian_v7 Attended full RWRI twice. It paid off on multiple levels. Here’s one: my portfolio performance during this crisis vs. S&P500. So, RWRI & @nntaleb books are a great investment. Will go there for the 3rd time for sure, and 4th, 5th… pic.twitter.com/bTSvNQm56M Permalink 5:54 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The @WHO shd be renamed WDO (World Disease Organization): had they not existed many lives would have been spared. Friends are smelling conspiracy in WHO’s claims (“evidence based”conflation of absence of evidence for evidence). No, it’s only incompetence. Criminal incompetence. Permalink 5:31 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Everybody comments on my ideas, nobody seems to care that I’ve lost weight (in spite of quarantine)! https://twitter.com/chasechandler/status/1244661425148133380   Permalink 3:51 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @BloombergTV @ErikSchatzker #tailrisk #insurance #keepyourhouse https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/taleb-says-it-s-too-late-for-tail-risk-hedging-slams-stimulus   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DKfmtN7uYZ”>  pic.twitter.com/DKfmtN7uYZ Permalink 2:53 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is spin: WHO is a very incompetent org. Prevented masks & were 5 steps behind. Can’t get risk asymmetry! Stat ignorant WHO now trying to do complicated “science” & degrading simple chloroquine in spite of of huge signal, using “dble blind” buzzwords. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments?fbclid=IwAR31YwxhsKm4zHtCC6RazpsqCVrAMO_mY3UUre_iyd7hiuF0_YklhwvH1NE#   Permalink 12:08 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The PDF version is free and available here. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 10:27 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The book is finally on Amazon. Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemolog… https://www.amazon.com/dp/1544508050/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_3PIGEb0XVZ6ZE   via @amazon Permalink 10:21 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@Stephen89756302 @nntaleb on a personal note, thanks: I was in Singapore when they had 14 cases, UK when they had 1, wore masks in public, didn’t check a bag, ate in hotel, self-isolation on return to US. Saw the power of your model, listened, took action for self and others. Bless you. Permalink 10:19 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@EricRWeinstein Can we get a list of the officials, leaders, institutions & spokespeople who are consciously lying about “masks not being effective in the general population” to hide their own failure to stock masks, and thus pushing our health care professionals in front of this viral train? Permalink 10:07 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CORONA models Models count # people dead and # people infected. They miss a central point: 1)~10-20% of those who get it are spending time in HELL yet w/o qualifying for hospitalization as they don’t need a ventilator. 2) We don’t know the long term reduction in LE from sequels! Permalink 6:15 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LUNG VENTILATORS & INTERMITTENCE Where varying the intensity saves lives: my paper in mathematical medicine “Convex Responses in Medicine” showing the effects of intermittence were well documented w/ventilators (Jensen’s Inequ.). Also in #Antifragile. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZjjOB0F5vO”>  pic.twitter.com/ZjjOB0F5vO Permalink 5:50 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@TommyCaillat 6ème relecture de L’Incerto en cours. Ce confinement est une aubaine si on en prends l’avantage. Lisez. Faites de l’exercise. Prenez le soleil. Mangez correctement. Pas d’excuses. @nntaleb @Mangan150 pic.twitter.com/7XE3KBGgBC Permalink 5:40 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Factoid of the day: The Montgomerys have the (Phoenician) J2 haplogroup (J2a1-Y22056 (aka Z40262)). @felhagehistoire https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/montgomery/about/background   https://twitter.com/Normandy_Post/status/1244576461882822657   Permalink 5:34 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 This is what @nntaleb calls the Ludic Fallacy. These guys either did experiments in the class room or in their minds. What they are saying are FAR from the reality. At least from my experience in China, NOBODY had this false feeling of protection while wearing the masks. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/c0uQCdksPv Permalink 7:31 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@jeitoapp Who the fuck needs a scientific paper to know that wearing a mask is better than not wearing one during a global pandemic? Is the world dumber than what I thought? https://twitter.com/jcastros/status/1244350023690747908   Permalink 1:37 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Don Bosco Ioannis Damakenos (John of Damascus) Imam Ali Socrates Thomas Aquinas https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1244342447276281856   Permalink 12:29 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@NonMeek When you’re right, you’re right. https://twitter.com/iridiumideas/status/1244322903685910529   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Kb12JxR71b”>  pic.twitter.com/Kb12JxR71b Permalink 11:29 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I don’t do interviews anymore (not my job). But newspapers narrate the twitter feed. Works. https://www.rt.com/uk/484430-taleb-let-branson-virgin-airline-go-bust/   Permalink 10:51 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Mask tutorial courtesy of @who https://twitter.com/ghosh121/status/1244266295060647938   Permalink 8:16 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Just to piss off @WHO #NewProfilePic pic.twitter.com/SZpAiyjX3y Permalink 6:52 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ask for 5, settle for 3 (but don’t tell anyone yet!) https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1244095809592926208   Permalink 6:51 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Mayor of Amioun: on the other side of the Med, very diplomatic. pic.twitter.com/AJ6M9rsq5E Permalink 6:42 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism! https://twitter.com/MarinaStavrou9/status/1244161012833583104   Permalink 6:32 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@ole_b_peters Different countries are at different stages in the pandemic, and under different levels of stress currently. That allows a little bit of load sharing. Germany responded early, e.g. the labs prepared for mass testing in January when the virus was sequenced in China. Permalink 4:27 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb In the absence of further information, there is no downside to such strategy. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1244118720932446211   Permalink 4:15 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@sarah_cone ⁦@nntaleb⁩ has been saying this for only a few decades at least. https://www-washingtonpost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/27/economic-efficiency-resilience-coronavirus/?outputType=amp   Permalink 2:23 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@MarinaStavrou9 I need to watch this again.. I need Italian Mayors to sort you ALL out the world needs Italian Mayors to sort the world out not passionless journos & clueless academics.. pic.twitter.com/yk7MES3KLG Permalink 12:14 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@Gh0xuLZHXdi3LEf Μένουμε σπίτι. pic.twitter.com/Wdeeh7478e Permalink 6:57 PM – 28 Mar 2020

@naval WHO isn’t going to warn you. CDC isn’t going to test you. FDA isn’t going to cure you. FEMA isn’t going to feed you. Save yourself. Permalink 2:54 PM – 28 Mar 2020

@ElegantiaeArbit That feel when @nntaleb and co have been issuing better, more accurate, more consistent advice for several months than the CDC, WHO, et cetera https://twitter.com/drmattmccarthy/status/1243891663162019841   Permalink 11:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@ElegantiaeArbit That feel when @nntaleb and co have been issuing better, more accurate, more consistent advice for several months than the CDC, WHO, et cetera https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841   Permalink 11:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Die Corona-Pandemie ist kein schwarzer Schwan: Warum 2020 nach Nassim Nicholas Taleb nicht mit 2008 zu vergleichen ist https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/kein-schwarzer-schwan-nassim-taleb-ueber-die-corona-pandemie-ld.1548877?mktcid=smsh&mktcval=Twitter   via @NZZ Permalink 10:21 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@amconmag Comparative advantage, the philosophical basis of free trade, works, if by “works” you mean “maximizes efficiency at the expense of redundancy and anti-fragility.” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-didnt-we-test-our-trades-antifragility-before-covid-19/   Permalink 9:45 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb With Branson the problem is compounded: + He is a tax refugee: he lives in the BVI & since UK has no worldwide taxation, pays no taxes. Yets wants the UK taxpayer’s backstop. + He walks around virtue-faking with TED/Davos crowd. Let him go bust. Planes will fly w/new owners! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1243657604234166275   Permalink 7:35 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism doesn’t mean total anarchy for communes to do what they want. It is fractal (multiscale), but w/maximal control at the bottom. Localism allows central government to impose interzones lockdowns, but towns can shut themselves if they wish (Italian cities during plague). https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1243896621265498114   Permalink 7:24 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The worst in the hall of shame is @CassSunstein who represents all that’s evil in the IYIs: he pathologizes cautious people by finding some… disorder He wanted the Obama admin to manipulate pple away from their caution against GMOs by hiding labels. https://twitter.com/AriSchulman/status/1243502730200653826?s=20   Permalink 7:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@Nlitsardopoulos The point of NNT is that of scale and acceleration. E.g the time it took a boat to get from Crimea to Genoa in 14th century, compared to the time it took an airplane to get from London to New York. Permalink 6:39 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ordered masks on Amazon 2 weeks ago. The seller decided to not charge me. Will send money to rescue efforts as it is unfair for me to benefit from my media presence, particularly that it relates to the corona hedging. pic.twitter.com/TYmWOR8XGs Permalink 4:07 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It is largely for the sake of these airlines that governments did not stop traffic from China. Now taxpayers need to bail them out, spending trillions. Penny wise, Trillions of dollars foolish. pic.twitter.com/3xj5mrlDgc Permalink 2:54 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I immediately smelled a rat with 10 Downing when I was told their chief advisor was using, liking, or doing something with @PTetlock’s “Superforecasters”. I realized he must be a BS vendor/IYI. Turned out he was. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 12:39 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb “Life is long gamma”, RIP Anthony Glickman https://twitter.com/DaliaGlickman/status/1243596854799077381   Permalink 10:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It is common for people like Fauci to know their stuff, but to not understand risk of events. Same with epidemiologists as we saw. The carpenter fallacy: to get an ideas about probabilities of tail sequences at roulette, hire a probabilist not a carpenter. @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/CathyYoung63/status/1243471230809800706   Permalink 10:26 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Meds & Anatolians refer to themselves via patronymic up to one generation (ides,akis,ian,ben,etc.), like N. Europeans (sson), but some strange villages go matronymic: Jean de Florette (Provence)… Or Kousba, Lebanon: my name there is “Nassim Minerva”, driver:”Michel Rosa”, etc. Permalink 10:13 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@jamesaknight Fair play to them – Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock and Chris Whitty have clearly read this tweet and delivered… #skininthegame https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238455607717486592   Permalink 9:33 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@churchesuncut Corporations have figured out that politicians are cheaper to buy than insurance #nnt Permalink 9:30 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You https://link.medium.com/2QFx3uiL94   Permalink 9:21 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb An interesting regularity. Greeks refer to name and place of origin, even in Levant (Athenadoros of Berytus, Lukianos of Emesa,… , Shmokron of Alexandria) S Semitic speakers refer to their ancestors: Jehoshua bn X bn X bn X bn David… As in the Bible you get long genealogy! https://twitter.com/Safaitic/status/1243558074356563975   Permalink 8:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@RepThomasMassie (10/11) This stimulus should go straight to the people rather than being funneled through banks and corporations like this bill is doing. Permalink 8:48 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@Safaitic #coronaepigraphy day 13: How many generations of your family can you count back? This #Safaitic inscription contains a genealogy of 20 generations. Assuming a generation = 20 years, this author knew the names of his ancestors going back 400 years! A thread on his lineage. pic.twitter.com/sCsEgWI4OR Permalink 8:18 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@normonics Libertarians dont get liberty It’s not about doing whatever the f you want despite how it impacts others It’s doing whatever the f you want CONDITIONAL on not harming others https://twitter.com/FreeStateNH/status/1243386499657154560   Permalink 8:10 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb DISCOVERY DU JOUR Blocking idiots on Twitter after telling them “I block idiots” “Sorry, I block idiots” “Sorry, I block idiots, nothing personal” is not a violation of Twitter’s terms of service (& the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany). pic.twitter.com/kXRnwFkrES Permalink 6:27 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Before weightlifting, or course. https://twitter.com/MasaSkiba/status/1243265676158160896   Permalink 5:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Few people know that Boris Johnson is Turkish on his paternal side: his grandfather Osman Kemal became “Wilfred Johnson”. Hence most likely the East Med J2 haplogroup… https://twitter.com/EastMedMonitor/status/1243521365958934530   Permalink 5:56 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It was NOT a 30 sigma. Anyone using sigma in economics is a fraud. pic.twitter.com/P4eKmf1dsX Permalink 5:50 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, if after that jobless claims number anyone still uses macroeconomic tools w/”variance” “standard deviation”, “kurtosis” etc. should be arrested. I said in The Black Swan & next textbook (Chap 3) that economists are frauds. This is the PROOF before the last move. pic.twitter.com/Q3o6SwPbk9 Permalink 5:48 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Respect (both from me and from our common friend in the South East) https://twitter.com/GrantSSC/status/1243241516740407296   Permalink 5:26 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Fat Tony don’t believe much in conspiracy theories. Why? The “geniuses” at the top have proven time and time again they’re too stupid to pull anyting that elaborate off… https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200   Permalink 5:11 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@AviSolomon8 @chrislhayes @bruces The Greeks have not forgotten the lessons of history… pic.twitter.com/FjKqUtSQa7 Permalink 3:07 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@MasaSkiba “You cannot hedge the risk of epidemics, unless you stop airplanes from flying.” @nntaleb May 19, 2010. pic.twitter.com/LRq1UTCA8k Permalink 12:56 PM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Friendship and enmity are both path dependent. Former friends (rats) are permanent enemies & former enemies are permanent friends. “I treat my friends as temporary pre-enemies, my enemies as temporary pre-friends, & my post-friends as permanent enemies.” Bed of Procrustes Permalink 12:04 PM – 26 Mar 2020

@PZalloua We need to know how the virus is spreading in the community and who is more likely to spread it? The more we know the better we can prevent @yaneerbaryam @nntaleb @normonics pic.twitter.com/Sm35nQxk1x Permalink 8:32 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Gods watch over our BSBPB (BS Busting Probabilist Brigade, includes the anti-naive-probabilism school of @HarryDCrane, the ergodic one of @ole_b_peters, and many more): Flawed paper by nudge IYI @CassSunstein had 107 dowloads in 6 months (Compared to 10K-100K for us). pic.twitter.com/ee4obXhV1f Permalink 7:01 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You https://link.medium.com/2QFx3uiL94   Permalink 4:51 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@Jaffer22915438 1/ Friends, my twitter feed has become a Real World Twitter Institute (nod to Nassim). Decided to chronicle this entrepreneurial journey in crisis distribution filling a supply gap. Yes, we make money but challenges pop up daily. Permalink 4:51 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I just published Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You https://link.medium.com/3h53P88H94   Permalink 5:16 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@normonics pic.twitter.com/Wgi8nG23A3 Permalink 5:13 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Forbes’ @tarahaelle wrote “showed no significant difference in outcomes between those who received the drug & those who received usual care.” In other words: “showed no significant difference in outcomes FOR THOSE WHO DID NOT NEED IT” since those they are discussing were CURED Permalink 4:59 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Let me explain why Forbes’s @tarahaelle & Bloomberg’s @Business are making a statistical fraud concerning chloroquine: + You NEVER look for people who healed on their own on BOTH sides: 14 pple who recovered w/& 14 pple w/o Cloroquine tell you NOTHING about the drug. Fraudsters https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242788451986128899   Permalink 1:32 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@IvanBlecic @nntaleb, @yaneerbaryam & the gang won this debate. There’s an expression in Italian: “la merda viene a galla”. Fascinating the sheer SPEED w/ which BS has been detected in the last 2 months. Wld’ve taken years (if ever), dismantled one after another, in nifty 3-days instalments. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242794290746703874   Permalink 1:26 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is Fake News, Statistically. Forbes should remove https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/03/25/chloroquine-use-for-covid-19-shows-no-benefit-in-first-small-but-limited-controlled-trial/#323249324c86   Permalink 1:12 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism du Jour Many Italian towns survived the Plague by closing their gates. https://twitter.com/predragbrajovic/status/1242860576742821889   Permalink 10:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism du Jour Many Italian towns survived the Plague by closing their gates. https://twitter.com/PredragBrajovic/status/1242860576742821889   Permalink 10:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@phl43 pic.twitter.com/d2Ihcvc2Pt Permalink 9:59 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY & ASYMMETRY Let me make my point clear. Does Chloroquine work? I am not sure. But…if infected & very sick, would I take Chloroquine? 100% Yes. In the right dosage: it has been around for decades & we know its side effect & drug interactions. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242788451986128899   Permalink 9:35 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@TMFStoffel If I had to read just two paragraphs of @yaneerbaryam and @nntaleb’s op-ed in the UK, this would be it. But you have an extra two minutes, so you should read the whole thing: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jUlsZjjV0O”>  pic.twitter.com/jUlsZjjV0O Permalink 9:14 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@drjamesdinic 500 patients in northern Italy are starting to breathe thanks to hacked scuba gear, modified with 3D printers. #COVIDー19 solutions! https://www.google.com/amp/s/dgiluz.wordpress.com/2020/03/23/its-working/amp/   @joerogan Permalink 8:02 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine wants to lecture live on social media while writing equations on a classroom blackboard. Any tripod with remote ctrl (for Iphone 11) that you recommend? Permalink 8:01 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ @DrCirillo & I looked at the data, & we were shocked: it has the FATTEST tails I’ve seen. Fatter than the Levy distribution (alpha<½). Under such DEEP uncertainty you never gamble with idiotic scenario models. Never. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-17   Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ @DrCirillo & I looked at the data, & we were shocked: it has the FATTEST tails I’ve seen. Fatter than the Levy distribution (alpha<½). Under such DEEP uncertainty you never gamble with idiotic scenario models. Never. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-17   Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@TaroniAndrea When all this is over, @nntaleb will still be an asshole. But he will also still have been right. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242794290746703874   Permalink 6:33 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) In other words: Compare # of people who don’t recover but received Chloroquine to # people who don’t recover and receive nothing. Bloomberg should not be spreading this dangerous BS! Permalink 5:46 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The UK’s coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn’t | Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 5:43 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Statistical flaw in the conclusion: That study says almost NOTHING about Chloroquine. The comparison now is conditioned on BOTH being cured. You need cases without spontaneous recovery, such as Reault’s. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/hydroxychloroquine-no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study   via @business Permalink 5:20 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@Jaffer22915438 1/ Do you realize how f*cked up this system is to have someone like me up-fronting millions of dollars to bring masks into the US. 3 weeks ago, I did not know an N95 mask from a dust mask. Not a saint, please. We will make money, but the system is dysfunctional. Permalink 4:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Statesman. https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1242479407031296000   Permalink 12:56 PM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb With @DrCirillo. Forgot to thank @BertZwart1 Permalink 10:14 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases: Clearly a steep power law. You need vigilance. Complicated epidemiological models are like studies of forks and knives on the Titanic. https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   via @academia Permalink 10:08 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Respect https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1242469195410894849   Permalink 9:59 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Beats the NY library… pic.twitter.com/MEgjh3uCbs Permalink 8:44 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 A beautiful application of the shadow mean method on pandemics ( It allows you to derive the expected value when the fat tailed distribution is bounded, in this case, by human population on earth ). I was impressed by this method when @nntaleb and @DrCirillo discussed it at #rwri https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242443727366479874   Permalink 8:27 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And trading, of course. Permalink 8:11 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Math, Twitter, and weightlifting. Same time. Thanks, @GrantSSC for help. pic.twitter.com/DdBk31H6yo Permalink 7:52 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Our fat tails paper shd limit these models for entertainment only pic.twitter.com/ZVIZYPkmPy Permalink 7:30 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is a preview of the paper with @DrCirillo: contagious pandemics are fat tailed. Anyone using epidemiological model is like someone counting spoons on the Titanic. pic.twitter.com/HvJfJWL6zJ Permalink 6:30 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb makeshift… Was not a pun but a genuine typo. Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Grant @GrantSSC is starting to make lemon out of lemonade, like @Jaffer22915438: delivering makeshit weightlifting equipment to people stuck at home. https://twitter.com/bmiloy/status/1242250956705681408   Permalink 6:01 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Lesson from a long experience with model blowups:@neil_ferguson, if you need a model w/”thousands of lines”, this is not a model useable for real world risk & decisions–rather something with the FRAGILITY of a house built with matches to impress some tenure committee. https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713   Permalink 4:43 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb localism at its best https://twitter.com/AndrewCesare/status/1242174265547468803   Permalink 2:04 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Do you know how to sew? Make masks for hospitals, nursing homes, rehab facilities, or yourself. Here is information how. Spread the word https://necsi.edu/sewing-masks   Permalink 9:41 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANCIENT LANGUAGES DU JOUR Karshum(Kirsh), pum (temm/famm), 3inum, appum(aff, anf), uznum (udn, dayné) are preserved. Interesting: birkum BRK=> RKB (rekbé), tikkum maybe ta2m (to cover neck?) and most interesting: puridum => fard (single) https://twitter.com/mynemosyne54/status/1242061284704690177   Permalink 9:16 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb One small problem. It is currently in the nation state of Turkey. https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/1242010478693490688   Permalink 8:11 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I don’t lift. I just hoard plates as a hobby. https://twitter.com/hoody_pl/status/1242100556883165186?s=20   Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Bought more plates, just in case. pic.twitter.com/LLuiUuzNX1 Permalink 7:33 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Now this correlation is a correlation. Remove points and it stays the same. It may tell us however, that richer countries tend to test more, or that people travel much more into and out of richer countries. Check a network graph. https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1241850312203415552   Permalink 5:12 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@mynemosyne54 Body parts in Akkadian pic.twitter.com/9OxNApddOk Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@cdipaola62 WHO finally has “data” Universal Precautions for Respiratory/Droplet borne viruses has been warranted since outbreak When uncertain—>act with Precaution ⁦@endCOVID ⁦@nntaleb⁩ ⁦@yaneerbaryam⁩ ⁦@normonics⁩ ⁦@TuckerCarlson⁩ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-considers-airborne-precautions-for-medical-staff-after-study-shows-coronavirus-can-survive-in-air.html   Permalink 1:41 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Too late, De Blasio. You need to be one step ahead, not three steps behind. https://twitter.com/birdxi1988/status/1241885799525875712   Permalink 5:59 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 We need to “overreact” to fight the virus, this doesn’t look like that @trishankkarthik @normonics @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/nycmayor/status/1241860593751113732   Permalink 5:33 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@LorenzoWVilla Do you want to try this one? For (a,b,c) real and positive pic.twitter.com/1nUUz3jvu2 Permalink 2:37 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Something standard Libertarians don’t get (but localists get very well): liberty & threats to others don’t scale the way they think they do. Libertarians need to translate threats to individuals into threats to the collective without naive linear scaling. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1239243622916259841   Permalink 2:36 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb To relax during the quarantine https://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/1241300006939713537   Permalink 11:06 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 6) Saying “it is nobody’s fault” hence let’s help corps is vicious: risk management=cash to face eventualities WITHOUT knowing what they WILL BE: we have 2 kidneys SO we don’t have to predict how they one will be harmed. Except that a pandemic is NOT a Black Swan. (INCERTO) pic.twitter.com/YWc5xAt7rc Permalink 10:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 6) Saying “it is nobody’s fault” hence let’s help corps is vicious: risk management=cash to face eventualities WITHOUT knowing what they WILL BE: we have 2 kidneys SO we don’t have to predict how they one will be harmed. Except that a pandemic is NOT a Black Swan. (INCERTO) pic.twitter.com/YWc5xAt7rc Permalink 10:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic | Evidence-based science | inspired by @nntaleb Support my work https://gumroad.com/offshorecomic   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1240641133820207104   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1240714702281306117   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JggQip7c4x”>  pic.twitter.com/JggQip7c4x Permalink 9:56 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Commentary: “Few solid” I meant “a few solid” (i.e. sufficient to show Harry doesn’t just publish to gain status). Soon we will see the end of pseudo-credentalization/academic poseur. Permalink 9:01 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb THE END OF CITATION RINGS Harry Crane, probabilist (mathematical stat),knows his shit. Few solid publications, 350 citations. David Spiegelhalter,”statistician” 100s of pubs, Member of prestigious societies, 111,000 citations. Watch Harry take Spiegelhalter to the cleaners. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1241748419879763968   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5p2qyRTnRD”>  pic.twitter.com/5p2qyRTnRD Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) CEOs of bailed out companies must disburse PAST bonuses. Facing the GBRT (Generalized Bob Rubin Trade) where someone has a free option. pic.twitter.com/lH9N1dur58 Permalink 8:31 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) CEOs of bailed out companies must disburse PAST bonuses. Facing the GBRT (Generalized Bob Rubin Trade) where someone has a free option. pic.twitter.com/lH9N1dur58 Permalink 8:31 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This result is very robust. Paper posted soon. As probabilist @BertZwart1 (specialist in Extreme Value Theory) observes, this is the result of parameter stochasticity in the SIR model. Making parameters deterministic is what was incompetent in the UK government model. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1241451807907491845   Permalink 7:47 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I was actually teasing them. A more “elegant” tweet would have been: “It says a lot about them, but also something about you”. Permalink 6:49 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) The shareholder should not never end up being rewarded for lack of hedging/insurance. He/she should go first. https://twitter.com/nikola_sock/status/1241704778671013888?s=20   Permalink 5:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb When your archenemies give you praise, it says something about them, but also a lot about you. https://twitter.com/hlithskjolf/status/1241672103931326464   Permalink 5:43 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I’ve learned from a long life that someone close to you with a gun can be controlled if you are trained; worry about someone with a knife. https://twitter.com/digvijoy_c/status/1241550485762592769   Permalink 5:32 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 3) Airlines/Boeing are lobbying for bailouts, which they will get. How about the small corner restaurant? The independent tour guide? The personal trainer? The prostitute? The barber? The hotdog vendor living from tourists near the Met Museum? Last time (2008) they were ignored. Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb In PRINCIPIA POLITICA: pic.twitter.com/2WPkzAcjxA Permalink 5:21 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Explain to me why we should spent taxpayer money to bailout companies (airlines) who spent their cash buying their own stock so the CEO gets optionality, instead of having a crisis buffer. We should bail out individuals based on needs, not corporations. #Moralhazard Permalink 6:21 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Many people stock up on pasta. Others on toilet papers. Some go for wine. And some people stock up on Olympic weight plates. pic.twitter.com/bJq3KsQmch Permalink 5:33 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Thankful to @SamHarrisOrg. The problemo is too big to worry about personal enmities. https://twitter.com/SamHarrisOrg/status/1239267580755365888   Permalink 5:26 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ In other words, these people MUST have something in common that makes them susceptible to the virus: 4 is too yuuuge to be dismissed as a coincidence. (Conditional probabilities are low for healthy and young, so a few draws are <10^-4). Hidden comorbidity is too explanatory. Permalink 12:55 PM – 21 Mar 2020

Intelligence , Charlatans, IQ, Meditation, HYPERTENSION, Lindy, NYT, globalist/localist, Macron, Micron | Twitter

@nntaleb 19- A general problem w/social “scientists” & IQ idiots: they can intuit the very terms they are using. Verbalism; they have a skin-deep statistical education & can’t translate something as trivial as “correlation” or “explained variance” into meaning, esp. under nonlinearities. pic.twitter.com/4fUQuRvf1c Permalink 6:19 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@normonics It is clearly a point of identity for many. Exposing this and other fragilities as early and decisively as possible is the major project of those interested in an Antifragile world. https://twitter.com/ahsandeliri/status/1077483995057680384   Permalink 6:02 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb John, refreshing to have a physicist. The rule of thumb: if a metric explains less than 1- x% of the variance, it is not a metric. In physics the x can be as low as 10^14. In engineering, often <10^5. In psychology often >75% of the variations come from variance. Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@AhsanDeliri It seems IQ is a special sacred cow. The minute @nntaleb decided to really investigate what it is, how it’s measured, what it implies, what it leaves out, how it’s implications are inflated, all the knives came out. Permalink 12:39 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #happyholidays #safetynet pic.twitter.com/AhrXI0MPZ7 Permalink 3:24 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Peterson I said psycho”metrics is about a nonlinear pseudometric that shows mostly how dumb someone is. Try another question & make it “intelligent”. Permalink 3:15 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@BDSixsmith According to Lebanese festive traditions, Nassim St Nicholas Taleb visits your house at midnight, eats the bowl of squid ink pasta that you left for him and leaves free weights and copies of Montaigne’s Essays for your children. pic.twitter.com/YAGRhg8r6e Permalink 1:58 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Utterly confused. The Peninsulars hate Turkey even more than they hate Infidels. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1077296606809079808   Permalink 12:27 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 18- (continuing graph). So far none of the IQ-psycholophasters seem to grasp that local correlation is never correlation is the commonly understood sense. So when they say “IQ works well between 70 and 130” it means: “IQ works well between 0 and ~85, maybe”. pic.twitter.com/IAkkDP9hBm Permalink 11:44 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “So it appears that the church founders really wanted Christ to have skin in the game; he did actually suffer on the cross, sacrifice himself, and experience death.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #MerryChristmas #books #quote #Christ pic.twitter.com/MGa2UrYIR5 Permalink 8:53 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Merry Christmas my friends! pic.twitter.com/xCCQxbGJuT Permalink 7:21 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 17- A graph that shows the synthesis of my opinion on IQ and the “reseasrch” results about it. pic.twitter.com/xZZFn4xNJB Permalink 6:21 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 16- So Far: “IQ” isn’t a measure of “intelligence” but “unintelligence”; it loses its precision as you move away from 70 (left tail). Where it’s most hyped (*some* jobs) it predicts ~15- 63% of the time, ~10% if you demassage data. It it were a physical test, wd be rejected. Permalink 4:56 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@TricksterDoesIt Taleb, I’m not sure I accept your stated correlation. Many of these studies have massaged the data. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4557354/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/v08eLsktTI”>  pic.twitter.com/v08eLsktTI Permalink 9:04 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb (hint). pic.twitter.com/ml3X1xkKFf Permalink 8:48 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 15-” IQ” is most predictive of performance in military training, w/correlation~.5, (which is circular since hiring isn’t random). QUIZ: translate the correlation into percentage of the time IQ provides a correct answer there. Permalink 7:46 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 14- Any measure of “intelligence” w/o convexity is sterile. https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility   Permalink 1:59 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 13- For a measure to be a measure it needs to be: + UNIQUE + MONOTONIC or, at least + TRANSITIVE Hence IQ is not a measure, but something for psycholophasters to BS about. Permalink 12:02 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 12- If someone came up w/a NUMERICAL “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or oth physical qty, you ‘d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it & it will become an official measure. That’s what happened to “IQ”. Permalink 11:40 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 11- A robust use of “IQ” is for low scores for special needs pple. But then practically ANY measure would work to detect problem & improvement. Or no measure: just a conversation #Lindy. But then psycholophasters are using it like cholesterol, transferring from tails to body. Permalink 11:16 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 10- #SkininTheGame shows that the only robust measure of “rationality” & “intelligence” is survival, avoidance of ruin/left tail/absorbing barrier, (ergodicity). Nothing that does not account for ability to survive counts as a measure of “intelligence”– just philosophaster BS. Permalink 10:39 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@JSuchJ Interested in the ideas and books written by Nassim Taleb @nntaleb ? In this long podcast we discuss them (in Spanish) with @TorrasLuis (another RWRI alumni), @_PabloMB, @ValueInvestingS and @The_Godas https://www.academiadeinversion.com/nassim-taleb-luis-torras-juan-such-pablo-martinez-bernal-value-investing-fm/   Permalink 10:35 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 9- It is PRECISELY as a quant that I doubt “IQ”. I’ve spent 34 years working w/”High IQ” quants. I’ve rarely seen them survive, not blow up on tail events. Those high IQ who have survived like @financequant /Renaissance happen to be yuuugely street smart https://twitter.com/TellYourSonThis/status/1076866246270828544   Permalink 8:53 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 8- IQ is an academic-contrived notion. And the problem is that in academia there is no difference between academia and the real world; in the real world there is. Which explains why @primalpoly (while an honest resesrcher) can’t see where we are coming from. Permalink 8:38 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Perhaps the worst problem with IQ is that it seem to selects for people who don’t like to say “there is no answer, don’t waste time, find something else”. Remember the 1998 blowups. Permalink 8:19 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@DrBeauHightower Ever been to a Mensa meeting? Bunch of old dudes wearing sandals and socks that spend their time playing board games and chastising the world for chasing material goals. Nihilism plus backgammon. Permalink 8:17 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- If you take a Popperian-Hayekian view on intelligence, then you would realize that to measure it you would need to know the SKILLS needed in the ecology, which is again a fallacy of intellectual hubris. David Sloan Wilson joined the debate. https://twitter.com/David_S_Wilson/status/1076869012250918912   Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@iwangulenko Seems like Taleb only cares about stuff that matters IN THE REAL WORLD Permalink 7:56 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5- If you renamed IQ , from “Intelligent Quotient” to FQ “Functionary Quotient” or SQ “Salaryperson Quotient”, then some of the stuff will be true. It measures best the ability to be a good slave. IYIs want to build a top-down world where IYIs have the edge. Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb If many millionaires have IQs around100, & 58 y.o. back office clercs at Goldman Sachs or elsewhere an IQ of 155 (true example), clearly the measurement is less informative than claimed. https://twitter.com/gorucker/status/1076847699100606464   Permalink 6:48 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Look at the hordes with “high IQ” (from measurement) who are failures in real world rather than the ~50% correlation between IQ and success in 1) salaried employment, 2) jobs that select for edjukashion. Yuuge survivorship bias. 37 out of 38 PhDs in finance blew up in 1998! Permalink 6:40 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom/academic problems. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation. Some people can only focus on problems that are REAL, not fictional textbook ones. pic.twitter.com/Cs8LlNPgEO Permalink 6:25 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb “IQ” THREAD “IQ” measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs. 1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on “WHY is he asking me that?”, which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John) Permalink 6:22 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@librairiefrance RT @hugowiz: “Ce serait plus simple, d’un point de vue théologique, si Dieu était Dieu et Jésus un homme comme n’importe quel autre prophète, ansi que l’islam le voit, ou que le judaïsme voit Abraham.” Jouer sa peau @nntaleb @BellesLettresEd #JoyeuxNoel pic.twitter.com/UTg9ECZdqR Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Psychologists teaching you abt “intelligence” is like choirboys teaching you racketeering, turtles teaching you flying, or nuns teaching you how to rob a bank. Remember they live off charitable contributions or, worse, state support. #Skininthegame Permalink 12:33 PM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb OK, having played cop with @davidgraeber now I can safely support him in *some* of his missions. Permalink 12:13 PM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Year in Review (cont) Correspondence with Maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath : mathematics and humor. Maestro, Rest in Peace. https://twitter.com/search?q=%20%40cuttheknotmath%20%40nntaleb&src=typd   Permalink 10:55 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Year in Review (cont) The passing of @CutTheKnotMath: every Saturday morning I feel his absence, as my routine was to solve one of his puzzles. He was generous, patient, & committed to mathematics done right. We’ll finish his “Probability Riddles” book. @SvetlanaBogom13 Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb @StuartJRitchie Permalink 9:14 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Lesson 1 : Never attack someone publicly unless you know what they know about your work. (Asymmetry) Lesson 2: Never mess with nonpsychologists/real people if you are just a psychologist. Fellow @stuartjrichie didn’t see that I am basing mistakes from HIS own book on IQ . https://twitter.com/StuartJRitchie/status/1076473626189357058   Permalink 8:54 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@ShehabiFares The so called “Syrian revolution” in one picture..! pic.twitter.com/7z6JbpsBYL Permalink 7:54 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Takes correlation of existing pple in profession w/IQ (even assuming no bias & stats were replicable). Now take a cohort of “high IQ” pple and correlation with a category called “failure”. What does it show? pic.twitter.com/Xv6P1gcSDg Permalink 6:53 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The real non-datamined (i.e. w/potential cherrypicking) IQ study is the Terman study. Shows “geniuses” fare no better (or only slightly better, there was a debate) than socioeconomic peers. Epi-style studies in Medicine are now rejected (85% don’t replicate). Only cohort. Permalink 5:25 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@normonics There is a deep satisfaction in exposing shills — you are fighting for the common good. And it is effective. For instance, our bottom up exposure of @kevinfolta led to the point where even other shills have disassociated from him — no one is buying his toxic lies any longer https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1076288473051656192   Permalink 5:01 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@iwangulenko Did you know, a jump from 1 meter makes your legs stronger, a jump from 100 meters kills you. A nation of 8m is NO THE SAME as a nation of 300m. SCALE MATTERS. You can not scale communism (small scale, family), hard to copy Swissness AT SCALE/maybe impossible. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/dinapomeranz/status/1076059083856322560   Permalink 4:51 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams US Institute of “Peace” – pushes war, as it always has. We are forced to pay millions for a war-making “peace” institute. Orwell shits on us. https://twitter.com/USIP/status/1076315137185906688   Permalink 10:08 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Make sure you 1) spread the list or, better, 2) help expose shills For instance this effort helped us get @henryimiller who wrote fake scientific articles & smear scientists in Forbes & @ProSyn lose his job there & at the @HooverInst For the sake of trust in science! https://twitter.com/USRightToKnow/status/1076272623078854656   Permalink 5:29 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb LINDY: we get the following: Survival rate improves past a stage: once you’ve survived long enough, time works for you even if not power law. This comes straight out of an absorbing barrier model. Note that absorbing barrier is necessary since death/survival are discrete events pic.twitter.com/1kRK6Btt3t Permalink 12:44 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@Aaragorn004 as @nntaleb said surgeons shouldn’t look like surgeons! https://twitter.com/mathematicsprof/status/1075776839530930181   Permalink 9:36 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1076131927919345665   Permalink 9:19 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb So the Persians celebrate #Yalda night while the Levant celebrate sol invictus the predecessor of Christmas at about the same time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sol_Invictus   یلدا مبارک https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1076140113007206401   Permalink 7:48 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- Year in Review (cont) Monsanto is no longer. Bayer that bought Monsanto lost >$40 billion in cap. The idea that GMO = “science” & Glyphosate = “safe” is going bust as no longer propped up by the propaganda machine. With the death of Monsanto, victory for science. pic.twitter.com/HxqVFuKXCr Permalink 7:05 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6) An aspect of the @davidgraeber affair: is partaking of a lynch mob (in the form of approach in thread) morally acceptable, meaning it is only bad if one is the initiator? This is the classical problem of diffusion of responsibility: is is OK if OTHERS are doing it too? Permalink 6:37 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@EdmondShami Man, the way @nntaleb cracks down on academics is one of the most awesome things ever haha pic.twitter.com/9MLFhhLxul Permalink 4:30 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Most problems in the world are perpetuated by bureaucrats (ignorant of complex systems) with no #skininthegame “trying to help”. Put the State Department on sabbatical & see how peace will organically erupt. Also the past was more peaceful than claimed. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 4:07 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I can easily understand that someone can hate Donald Trump. But hating Trump more than loving peace is not a morally defensible position. Permalink 3:30 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@trishankkarthik “Abstinence much easier than moderation.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:25 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@phl43 I’d pay to see the faces of antiwar leftists in the 1970’s if they were told that 40 years later the Left, including many of their older selves, would be lamenting the resignation of a warmongering general. https://twitter.com/elianayjohnson/status/1075892750808158208   Permalink 3:45 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “Meditation is a way to be narcissistic without hurting anyone” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Trump ends illegal war in Syria. Trump may end 17 year losing battle in Afghanistan. Mattis: You’re not defending America. Well boo hoo hoo, Mattis. This is what America voted for. https://twitter.com/Elizabeth_McLau/status/1075881565216010246   Permalink 3:02 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@Ian56789 “Zuckerberg Must Resign”: Facebook Lets Corporations Read, Delete Your Messages https://theantimedia.com/facebook-let-corporations-read-delete-messages/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Hq9iuKXGTS”>  pic.twitter.com/Hq9iuKXGTS Permalink 12:43 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Year in Review (cont) 4- Published 7 papers in journals mostly single author, main one is https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   on speed of Law of Large Numbers 5- Figured out to avoid seed oil, called “healthy”. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6pwzeuQZBu”>  pic.twitter.com/6pwzeuQZBu Permalink 10:51 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@normonics These fucking people are sick Book a plane ticket and go fight ISIS yourself https://twitter.com/davidafrench/status/1075595073734230021   Permalink 9:49 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- My take on the Curse of Dimensionality. We’ve known about it for >30 years yet some idiotic geneticists keep doing multi-genes studies (especially the GMO types). People in computer science are vastly more aware. Also see “computational irreducibility” by Wolfram. pic.twitter.com/i6LDLri6Pb Permalink 8:11 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Here’s the guy who actually took a trip to Syria with McCain and Lindsey Graham and successfully pushed for the US to ARM TERRORISTS to overthrow the Syrian government. If I were Little Marco I would STHU about Syria because blood of thousands is on his hands. https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1075465661923631109   Permalink 8:03 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- Attempts by some to identify “intelligence genes” reveals statistical incompetence: for monogenic traits/mutations we can identify genes, for > there is a CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY meaning we need a yuuuuge sample of >10^30 people to have an idea about multivariate properties. Permalink 7:57 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5- The problem with “liberals” tagging to someone an identity/race/category to minoritify is that it makes race salient so you end up particularizing the general. Humans have zillions of dimensions & it gets absorbed into a category. Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4- Aside from LLN, idiots make claims abt the distribution of maxima from individuals. As I wrote in TBS, if all terrorists were Sunni Salafis, only ~ 0.0001 of Sunni Salafis are terrorists meaning you are wasting statistical time discriminating ag single individuals. Permalink 6:53 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My forth book in March (Vol 1, Techn Incerto) shows how little mechanistic statisticians undertand the law of large numbers (LLN). Some claims can only be made for large aggregates. The LLN requires muuuuuuuch more than they think. https://twitter.com/pirpirikos/status/1075762047269273600   Permalink 6:43 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1075762184892887041   Permalink 6:38 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@BrankoMilan For a change Trump does something reasonable: reduce killings by withdrawing US forces (at least he says so) from Syria and “internationalist rule-based liberals” attack him because they want….a war. Permalink 6:32 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nitingoyal An amazing thread on stats and how statistical ignorance leads to over medication. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1074283575288033280   Permalink 6:29 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- What people don’t get about “race” ≠ or “heritability” of traits: even it these were true & not fabrications, they wd be dominated by IDIOSYNCRATIC differences. If pple from Mars had an “IQ” lower than earth by 5%, w/variance you wouldn’t see it in ANY 2-paired individuals. Permalink 6:22 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5) @davidgraeber might not have been at the initiation of the lynch mob, just an active promoter of it (which, ethically, makes no difference). Permalink 5:47 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@unherd @nntaleb’s 2013 demolition of false certainties is the perfect book to re-read in an era of noise and confusion, writes @peterfranklin_ https://unherd.com/2018/12/why-antifragile-is-the-perfect-read-for-todays-turmoil/   Permalink 5:30 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4) and there is a meta-vagueness; @davidgraeber then accuses those who debunk him like @QuilletteM as belonging to “alt-right” Permalink 5:25 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The approach for rounding up an academic lynch mob used by @davidgraeber 1) vageness of accusation 2) the accusation, while vague, has an association with a precise sinister past (appeal to emotion) 3) wording leaves no possibility for scientific/critical scrutiny Permalink 5:13 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@MonaresTI I also had the privilege of being a student at the #RWRI. I learned a lot about statistics in real life. A doctor must ensure the safety of the least ill patient and never take away an opportunity to the one that is most in danger. SKIN IN THE GAME Permalink 4:37 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Important to remember: 1) guidelines for bloodpressure change frequently. More than 83 million adults would be recommended for high blood pressuretreatment under the new (2018) system compared to 72 million under the prior recommendations. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1074283575288033280   Permalink 2:50 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@golchhaJ Came across the French word ‘glander’ / ‘glandouiller’ through @nntaleb : “It means “to idle”, though not “to be in a state of idleness” (it is an active verb). Gandouiller denotes enjoyment. [It] is what children without soccer moms do when they are out of school.” Permalink 1:43 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/IlitbtgNWz Permalink 5:27 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- There is a category of bubblegumheads (say @jaketapper ) who not only overgeneralize but misgeneralize on top: say turning the pullout in Eastern Syria as a US vs Putin. Quite insulting for the citizens there with #skininthegame Permalink 2:04 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/l0nu2kQcIG Permalink 1:37 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There has been an epidemic of generalizing every tiny individual & particular conflict in life into something large & systemic, tied to “exploitation”, “race”, “gender”, “colonialism”, & ancestral “privilege”. Same pple view the world top-down & see benefits in centralization. Permalink 1:35 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition—given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Germany’s most important journal Der Spiegel says top journalist faked stories for years. @nntaleb https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/19/top-der-spiegel-journalist-resigns-over-fake-interviews?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Year in Review 2018 vs plan 1- Was more intransigeant 2- Went to Malta after yeaaaaars of trying 3- pic.twitter.com/2HGVscWm0S Permalink 7:22 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@Marcellenassif Sample of a Lebanese Christmas Eve ;) Featuring the FAMILY pic.twitter.com/k3sglqsfUL Permalink 6:17 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb When two “experts” diagree, consider the possibility at least one of them is not an expert. https://twitter.com/tarik_a/status/1075387357224992768   Permalink 5:51 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My definition: 1- Something is locally Antifragile with respect to a variable x (that is in a range, for x ∊ [L, H]) if and only if it has a locally convex response to such variable (i.e. f(x+∆x)+f(x-∆x)> 2 f(x) for all x ∊ [L, H]). [GAMMA APPROACH] 2- [VEGA APPROACH] Permalink 4:48 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile, thank you Twitter @jack for protecting us from “state actors” from Saudi Arabia trying to dig information about us. In my case Saudi Arabia can easily get information about me, they don’t need hackers. This was sent yesterday to pple targeted by the “state actors”. pic.twitter.com/08v2Xr3MmG Permalink 2:58 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb “Saudi Arabia Is Going Bankrupt” Taleb Exclaims After Seeing Kingdom’s Latest Budget | Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-18/saudi-arabia-going-bankrupt-taleb-exclaims-after-seeing-kingdoms-latest-budget   Permalink 5:21 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@Barnes_Law In depth technical analysis explains how Silver’s forecasts “feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis” applying double standards to measuring his on modeling. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 4:07 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Arabia is going to go bankrupt. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1075065883792470017   Permalink 2:07 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@ole_b_peters Let’s never think of utility as a currency. Currency conversion is linear, whereas the whole point of utility is its non-linearity. If we think utility is a currency, i.e. linear, we’ll miss its reference-point dependence and start believing in prospect theory. Permalink 7:41 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@Lipsie What FRACTAL LOCALISM looks like in the realm of vegetables. Tweet sponsored by @nntaleb & @VeggiesAreNoIdiots pic.twitter.com/nycm7s6Sae Permalink 6:28 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb LOCALISM & SCALABILITY Compare: Greek Cyprus to Greece (in spite of the former’s yuuuge problems since 1974) Singapore to China (and or Malaysia) Dubai to what is called “Saudi” Arabia Switzerland to Germany Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “Gli amministratori sono una maledizione da sempre – in ogni angolo del pianeta, in qualsiasi business o attività e in tutte le epoche storiche.” Rischiare grosso @nntaleb @ilSaggiatoreEd #libro #citazione #business pic.twitter.com/dyg2e2wIL6 Permalink 4:28 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My side of the story clearly presented. As the saying goes, an ounce of algebra clears a ton of BS, even when the BS comes from someone with >3 million twitter followers. https://twitter.com/isaacfab00/status/1074721180660056064   Permalink 7:13 PM – 17 Dec 2018

@isaacfab00 My attempt to demystify the @nntaleb vs @NateSilver538 twitter war. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 9:41 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The Nation-State is an agricultural concept made by a ruler to control & better own his peasants. It is highly inimical to the Mediterranean mind. The Polis is a more adapted unit. Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony “It takes 1,000 IQ points to out wit an aggressive tinkerer” -@nntaleb Rule of thumb (#Heurstic) never trust someone who has a weird obsession with “IQ”. They’re a sucker, someone who tinks (slowly) they understand the world but dont… https://twitter.com/StefanMolyneux/status/1074219829798699008   Permalink 5:44 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb III- The US was created to be bottom up, with the Federal Gov taking a residue of spending. But when pple spend (abstract) money that is not theirs, a disproportionate amount of fat grows, & we now have yuuuge money spent on nonsense. Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb II- From the idea that communism works only on a small scale (if it ever works)=> Taxation, as in Switzerland should be bottom up. You pay in proportion to where you can SEE the money spent. 1st to the commune; Commune pays the leftover to the county, county to … to federation Permalink 3:51 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Great thread illuminating the FRACTAL LOCALISM project. 1) Communism works on a very small scale. 2) But the flip is that it has only worked with a community that is highly homogeneous (originating from Eastern Europe) and monstrously sub-ethnocentric. https://twitter.com/KaiGehring1/status/1074586553215840256   Permalink 3:13 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@Extrachelle Retweeting this again bcz it’s my favourite 2018 tweet so far. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1073197627745992704   Permalink 1:59 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “… il promotore più attendibile di un prodotto è il cliente.” Rischiare grosso di @nntaleb ed. @ilSaggiatoreEd Come puoi vedere, ho acquistato il libro ;-) (11 ottobre 2018) pic.twitter.com/IOWVOzWC21 Permalink 11:57 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/n4qXhvj3gi Permalink 7:01 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I view both globalists and nationalists as the same crap: a reduction in dimensionality, a destruction of the variegated intermediate fractal layers between individual and humanity. Both aim at monoculture. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1042047309478014976   Permalink 3:32 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb As you lower \mu you can see the Lindy zone and the nonlindy area. Collapse is crossing the orange line. X axis is years. pic.twitter.com/NuoM61GvMe Permalink 3:07 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Localism is NOT nationalism. https://twitter.com/laurentozon/status/1074254016488574977   Permalink 1:37 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Lindy https://twitter.com/otrasenda_AC/status/1074386673696456704   Permalink 1:31 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Harry is a doctor and a RWRI alumni. https://twitter.com/HarryhongHong/status/1074321136761036800   Permalink 7:19 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon Live Love #Jounieh! Joy to the world By @joe.sokhn #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/oKEVwo2kUz Permalink 7:17 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@kimberlitepipe1 “English ‘manners’ were imposed on the middle class as a way of domesticating them, along with instilling in them the fear of breaking rules and violating social norms.” @nntaleb It took me 30+ yrs to realize this and make a change. Still difficult at times, woof woof woof. Permalink 6:51 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Ancestral architecture: no Euclidian geometry, high dimensionality. Even pyramids when close show rich micro-patters (Met in NYC). Today’s architecture is “smooth”, Eucledian, & of low dimensionality. I am most comfortable in a forest, a cave, or a Gaudi bldg. pic.twitter.com/fCTy4H8I7N Permalink 5:49 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Doctors are statistically naive & their statisticians are imbeciles; they have a hard time understanding non-linear dose-response so they binarize. And pharma takes them for a ride by bucketting numbers (mildly ill + very ill produces an illusion of risk for mildly ill). pic.twitter.com/1ZRZnUCJNx Permalink 5:17 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb HYPERTENSION In #Antifragile: Pharma needs to medicate the mildly “sick” (hypertensive) as 1) these live long 2) >100 more midly “sick” ppl than very sick, so more profitable to “cure” the healthy Pharma reclassifies the “sick” to get clients. But relation HBP-risk is nonlinear! pic.twitter.com/1x0X9oIzxu Permalink 4:42 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@ektrit As Taleb @nntaleb says, Modern Architects design to impress other Modern Architects. https://twitter.com/archpng/status/1074254067860471808   Permalink 4:21 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@laurentozon L’arnaque c’est de confondre localisme et protectionnisme national. Lorsque vous êtes à Nice vous êtes plus proche de Gêne que de Brest, Saint-Jean-de-Luz ou Lille. MLP est centralisatrice et sa gestion du RN le démontre depuis des années. https://twitter.com/mlp_officiel/status/1066981705129623552   Permalink 2:44 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon That’s how the sun rises in #Beirut! Good morning everyone! Have a nice Sunday By @mahdifad #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/Z5Z1ICPiZC Permalink 11:25 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony Being dumb and #Antifragile has worked out pretty well for me… https://twitter.com/bintsouria/status/1073984901114937346   Permalink 2:53 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Lindy is not a powerlaw but surely has local such behavior for first say 2000-10000 years. Good enough for me. A yuuge result. pic.twitter.com/2dLkdwW2Cl Permalink 1:30 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is not ART you can optionally observe in a gallery, but places and neighborhoods WE live in. We have skin in the game and the architect doesn’t. Permalink 5:29 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There is an additional problem with architects and modernity: reduction in the fractal dimensions of our world. https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52   Permalink 4:37 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The problem is architects building structures to impress other architects –but plumbers don’t act on impressing other plumbers. Any activity where agents impress peers (architects, academia) rather than satisfying the needs constituents ends up rotting. #SkininTheGame https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1073918095645908992   Permalink 4:32 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb New mathematics for the Lindy Effect, expressed as absorbing barrier (extinction barrier). This is the INTUITION of the method. Yuuuge results once we use Girsanov to include drift, or switch to geometric Brownian motion. #Lindy @financequant pic.twitter.com/OXMrClJMS5 Permalink 4:28 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Classical mistake by historians and philologists treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence. (Lond discussion in #TheBlackSwan) https://twitter.com/Jorrit_Kelder/status/1073548679859048448   Permalink 3:28 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb M4 is a SYSTEMATIC test of machine learning techniques, not some cherry picked concoction in an “evidence based” “data science” paper. There is NO other systematic test of predictability than @spyrosmakrid’s “M” competitions. On to M5. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1073897208834113537   Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb (Journalistic) noise is to signal what a cancer cell is to a healthy one. Permalink 3:08 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@NECSI It is the degree of opacity and uncertainty in a system, as well as asymmetry in effect, rather than specific model predictions, that should drive the precautionary measures. Push a complex system too far and it will not come back. pic.twitter.com/KTPDM6uaBR Permalink 12:45 PM – 14 Dec 2018

@john_f_hamer “It takes a lot of skills to be virtuous without being boring.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 6:58 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am plagiarizing @HarryDCrane for my own course next spring, particularly the last sections on Antifragile. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1073079657212321792   Permalink 5:58 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The main point from the M4 competition is not that traditional stats > machine learning, but that BOTH have a horrible record; we cannot use forecasting for any RISKY exposure. Hence a protocol for precaution in specific domains. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1072502840407527425   Permalink 5:17 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I wrote 4 Op- Eds in the NYT so this is not a matter of access. I just despise them. Permalink 5:00 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb What we calls different conservatism is militarism. Kristop has the intellectual rigor and clarity of thought of a poorly boiled cauliflower. https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1073538845671604225   Permalink 4:53 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Remember that the NYT, while promoting platitudinous & vague notions such as “integrity”, “truth”, etc. was behind the Iraq war, regime change, and other monstrosities. The NYT is a cover for warmongers & managed to convert the pseudo-left to militarism. Permalink 3:55 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/TalebQuotes/status/1073485426105577472   Permalink 3:47 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb When someone announces, self-referentially, “I have integrity and virtue”, look for the fraud. If NYT wanted to show *virtue* they shd say: “We take RISK for the Truth, even if uncomfortable to us & causes us to be ostracized by the MONOCULTURE/Weapon makers” No virtue w/o Risk pic.twitter.com/TWXqk68NJl Permalink 3:38 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Science is about observables; decisions, risk, life, profits and wisdom are about unobservables. Permalink 3:32 PM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Correction: Feb 11-15 Permalink 9:10 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@DrMichaelBonner Ousia, hypostasis, prosopon, etc. are often used interchangeably, and cannot be translated sensibly into other languages. Permalink 8:46 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My piece on the Lebanese language. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 7:21 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Cancelled my subscription to @LOrientLeJour, not bec they refused to publish my skeptical article on language, but for the INCOHERENCE of their management who claimed to be “balanced” by only publishing Arabists. MTV has no trouble w/the argument. https://www.facebook.com/adamadamo.fun/videos/vb.1532186683714370/742671102768879/?type=2&theater   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/x2kqK7VXy0″>  pic.twitter.com/x2kqK7VXy0 Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4) For a nationalist others are like “nonelephant animals”. For a localist others are cousins; some are brothers. Permalink 4:56 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3) Both nationalism & abstract universalism cause blowups. Kantian Universalism is flawed: It you treat all children equally for Christmas, you will neglect your own. Just as you are obligated to give preference to your children, others are obligated to do so with their own… Permalink 4:54 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2) The danger of Nationalism is an absorption of values: lives of others don’t count: Both H & W Bush counted only U.S. soldiers. For Salafis, lives of infidels don’t count. For a localist everyone counts, but your obligation to family members is greater. Permalink 4:51 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb NATIONALISM: there is an individual, then nation, little above. Causes Wars: outside lives don’t exist. FRACTAL LOCALISM: individual ⊂ various tribes (family, friends…) ⊂ tribes ⊂ … Humanity. NEVER exclusive: One (me) can ⊂ Greek & Lebanese tribes+US +Mediterraneism. Permalink 4:47 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@Apocalypticaly @nntaleb might find this to be funny. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1073182406390079488   Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb We are opening scholarships for RWRI (Real World Risk Institute) Feb 10-14 2019 in NYC http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 12:45 PM – 12 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The saying that it takes much more energy to displace than install falsehood is itself a falsehood 1) Sticky “falsehoods” are beneficial or useful for survival (placebo, superstition) 2) Falsehood can only persist if #Lindy 3) Nonhelpful falsehoods tend to collapse very quicky Permalink 11:45 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture pic.twitter.com/prTzKd2MwM Permalink 9:07 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@moshejoshua For anyone who has read @nntaleb already knows, this statement to be the harbinger and start of the end. pic.twitter.com/GqrXYZWTX0 Permalink 4:39 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Let me be clear about intolerance against intolerance. The rule is that People (say Salafis) whose platform is EXPLICITLY denying democracy (or free speech) should not use democracy (or free speech) to reach political power. Permalink 1:46 PM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Nightmare! Someone citing me in EXACTLY opposite of the meaning: Being “intolerant against intolerance” does NOT mean tagging people as fascist or somethinist SO you can muzzle them. @davidgraeber’s tactic is tagging people w/o due process, witches to be hunted. https://twitter.com/kellydanc/status/1072576042030764034   Permalink 1:39 PM – 11 Dec 2018

@Stefano_Peron And conclusion: when u have heavy tails and low signal noise ratio, convexity and layering exposition is better then forecast!@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1072547892576116737   Permalink 10:03 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb With ⁦Isabella and @Stefano_Peron⁩, RWRI alumni who came from Italy (Treviso) to attend the ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ M4 Conference. pic.twitter.com/VhR103kc8w Permalink 9:45 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The NKS by @stephen_wolfram is #Lindy Thoughts by “scientists” like Dyson who dismissed it (without reading it) aren’t Lindy. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1072521638745391107   Permalink 8:54 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Econometrics has been a total disaster. pic.twitter.com/Bf8AAPksRb Permalink 6:53 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Spyros ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ : the most accurate machine learning method is worse than the worst standard “statistical” one. pic.twitter.com/oo3stEBoTy Permalink 6:46 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Where @davidgraeber is slowly learning that if you use a lynch mob against someone (under argument using freedom of expression), someone may turn a lynch mob against you (under same freedom of expression). #symmetry https://twitter.com/davidgraeber/status/1072210837283225600   Permalink 3:54 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can’t predict business success, but you can predict business failure: someone who writes lengthy and frequent emails. Permalink 3:03 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I confirm. Harry’s undergrad class >>> so-called social scientists. https://twitter.com/harrydcrane/status/1072266082210201604   Permalink 3:53 PM – 10 Dec 2018

@polemitis “I have been wrong about most things most of my life…tell me something I don’t know… the key is to have a convex distribution to returns when I am right vs I am wrong” – @nntaleb #m4conference @Uni_of_Nicosia @nyutandon Permalink 7:25 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Scott Armstrong is 81. I will remember to scrutinize what he eats at lunch/dinner. pic.twitter.com/nuEvfbwW1j Permalink 6:35 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am supposed to be an unpleasant. https://twitter.com/batteryhorse/status/1072134680563122176   Permalink 6:32 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “If you do not take risks for your opinion, you are nothing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@LBMaronites R.I.P to the great Lebanese poet Maurice Awad. He devoted his life to modernizing poetry in the Lebanese language & even translated the Bible to the Lebanese language. He was nominated to a Nobel Prize in 2015. A true treasure from our country! pic.twitter.com/QeGaJMmMYt Permalink 1:36 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@tonyblaitz And why did France spearhead the war against Ghaddafi in Libya? Why is France solidly behind Paul Biya and Cameroon in their quest to exterminate the people of the English-Speaking Southern Cameroon? Permalink 12:05 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb President Micron, You don’t want other countries to interfere in the affairs of France And/or sypport the #YellowVestProtests rebels. Why did France support the jihadi headcutters in Syria? Please explain, President Micron. Permalink 6:14 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Not good https://twitter.com/karenattiah/status/1071474783978700800   Permalink 5:53 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Latest by @PZalloua of the Lebanon-East Med Population Genetics Project. Ancient DNA of Phoenician remains indicates discontinuity in the settlement history of Ibiza http://disq.us/t/397a0bd   Permalink 2:35 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@NonMeek Here’s a tailored comic strip for your upcoming M4 -lecture in NY. This ought to capture the gist of it [intensity > frequency]. #fattails pic.twitter.com/HeKUQzoBxG Permalink 1:49 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@NicolasTabardel You seem to still be using the left/right paradigm, when the debate has shifted to another dimension (globalist/localist). Permalink 12:21 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Χρόνια Πολλά ! https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/1071358737607200768   Permalink 4:11 PM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Yellow vests. Some surprisingly excellent demands: – Banning Lobbies (8) – Smaller Banks (5) – Banning MONOCULTURE, GMOs, Glyphosate (20) – Anti Foreign Interventionism (22) – Pol. Diversity of Media (15) – Frexit (9) Some questionable ones (3, 2) . #GiletsJaunes #YellowVests pic.twitter.com/Jjwy16xpWK Permalink 3:11 PM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Fractal Localism https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1070994836705239041   @digvijoy_c Permalink 5:43 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony Ending the poll earlier because more answers can come in, but only suckers wait for answers. Future Taleb had the most votes but Big Ron is the winner. pic.twitter.com/ERFL0S8Nrs Permalink 5:19 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Political Clarity under Complexity, & fractal localism. pic.twitter.com/5VPUTVrqaS Permalink 4:39 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb This is a CENTRAL result: you don’t get peace forcing pple to hold hands & sing Kumbaya by the campfire. You get peace via fractal LOCALISM. The usual idiotic AUB-style pseudoleft in Lebanon call “sectarian”(pejorative) anyone who believes in such Swiss-style localism. https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/890007166991482881   Permalink 4:21 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb For about two decades, journos, like vultures, have been showing up whenever someone (even when patently lunatic) claims finding a “flaw” in my work. Maybe I shd use a fake account and start posting these. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/brianga11agher/status/1063542512114171904   Permalink 4:03 PM – 7 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Rex Tillerson was not a neocon. @SecPompeo is a neocon. And a liar. Case closed on the president. He’s not teachable. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1071132880368132096   Permalink 12:26 PM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An intuitive way to see the BS by @PTetlock who doesn’t get the notion of forecasting shd be in payoff space except in very narrow domains. pic.twitter.com/kPeCKYjK3n Permalink 11:55 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@catoletters Meet the Crony Senators Who Took Saudi Money | The American Conservative https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/meet-the-senators-who-took-saudi-money/   via @amconmag Permalink 10:22 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why Macron was doomed the minute he gave an inch to the yellow vests. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/947496509926453251   Permalink 9:39 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The fancy 5 volume INCERTO set to come out in 2019. https://www.amazon.com/Incerto-Deluxe-Randomness-Procrustes-Antifragile/dp/198481981X/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1544196473&sr=8-2&keywords=incerto   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/xWtMBGC8gZ”>  pic.twitter.com/xWtMBGC8gZ Permalink 7:30 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@spyrosmakrid My talk at the M4 Forecasting Conference http://www.mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy   elaborates on the two major challenges facing the field (see below), in addition to discussing “The findings of the M4 Competition and their implications and how the participating methods can be applied”. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/64UODewnPa”>  pic.twitter.com/64UODewnPa Permalink 4:32 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Current bibles: The Bible, Wealth of Nations, Das Kapital, Works by Aquinas, Montaigne, etc. They fail editorial criteria. Editors don’t understand books, Academics don’t get scholarship. Why? @rorysutherland : employees’ objective is minimizing blame in case of failure. Permalink 3:05 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- How to make a survey work by via negativa. To assess if a book will survive, find an academic/someone who plays the system. If they say “well organized”, “well written”, or “original”, odds are the book flops. If they say “messy”, “whimsical”, the book will outlive him/her. Permalink 2:26 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Ignore surveys. Pple think they prefer restaurants 1) quiet so they can tawk, 2) roomy, 3) no line. Yet they flock to 1) loud, 2) cramped restaurants 3) w/50 min wait. Never ask pple what they want, watch what they do. Revelation of preferences. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 2:05 AM – 7 Dec 2018

NYT, Osteocalcin, Lebanon, Reforestation, Bayesianistas | Twitter

On the Shadow Moments of Apparently Infinite-Mean Phenomena Authors Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Pasquale Cirillo

@nntaleb The idea of #skininthegame is that nobody shd cause risk to others without impunity. https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1026113430376337408   Permalink 9:36 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb BS vending @josephinequinn is spreading theory that “Phoenicians didn’t exist”(loved by Arabists) on anachronistic acct of absence of national identity/self-designator (No Ph. integrated centralized rule). The Neanderthals never existed by same analysis. Same for Elephants… Permalink 9:29 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid This is the updated Outline of the paper “Forecasting in Social Sciences: State of the Art”. I would like to thank all those who send me comments and suggestions for improvements. I hope I have incorporated them correctly, given the constrain of not having > than 4 bullet points pic.twitter.com/wbIVSfQSHU Permalink 7:59 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam The Precautionary Principle is considered by Court of Justice of the EU as an anchor of European Law in ruling that affects use of CRISPR genetic modification https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=8f60f1b4-447f-435b-a3fc-5a2e2539a4d3   @normonics @nntaleb @rupertread @PrecPrinciple Permalink 5:23 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@brian_trollz You harassed a man who had nothing to do with Bitcoin, based on nothing but what could only be interpreted as “evidence” in the mind of a deranged stalker, and you enjoyed being supported in that? Good to know. Permalink 6:15 PM – 4 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid I am working on part of a paper on “Forecasting in Social Sciences: State of the Art” to be part of the Special Issue of the International Journal of Forecasting on the M4 Competition.. Any comments, suggestions, differences, objections will be welcomed. pic.twitter.com/iWXY365hI5 Permalink 10:10 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is the upper portion of the Qadisha (pronounced here “2odisha”) valley today. You can see the rising tree-line from reforestation. pic.twitter.com/s8I0ch94R4 Permalink 9:56 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The mountain had been terraced to farm staples (mostly wheat) & trees were of no use (except for fruit bearing ones). Unseen positive side effect of Ottoman Christian Millets inheritance laws. Permalink 9:29 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@normonics “risk denialists” is a better term. I’m going to go with that Better reveals their standing as ideologues https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1025744525841653760   Permalink 7:12 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This forest in Northern Lebanon (7adat) is owed to the fact that it was agrigultural land & the owners died w/the Titanic. Nobody could get the right papers to farm. pic.twitter.com/TPHvfzcKwB Permalink 4:37 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@EHSANI22 With all mixed reactions to @RaniaKhalek article below, it’s important to stay focused on the subject of reconciliation as a policy tool compared to the national land top down approach of Geneva that was pushed by a number of policy makers at the time. Small is beautiful @nntaleb https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1025386863618605056   Permalink 1:08 PM – 3 Aug 2018

@primalpoly BTW, I don’t want the @NYTimesPR to fire Jeong. Demanding a firing implies some faith that a company could rediscover its ethical compass. Rather, I’m supporting a consumer boycott of a moribund newspaper that’s proven itself wickedly prejudiced & hopelessly partisan. Permalink 11:52 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb It’s not like when the NYT condoned/caused the Iraq invasion out of ignorance / arrogance. This is a blatant violation of fundamental ethics. Permalink 7:50 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Never compromise on fundamental ethics. Never. Be honorable and never read anything in the @nytimes Permalink 7:16 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb With left to right @PZalloua, Hareth (Aretas) Boustany, & Hiram Corm (son of Charles Corm) at the Charles Corm foundation. pic.twitter.com/UXd9FGIdtP Permalink 6:29 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@Once_there_was_ https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   A great provoking read by @nntaleb especially in current climate. Will always remember @nytimes apology letter. Permalink 6:22 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Too disgusted to talk to the @nytimes pic.twitter.com/MtwmRr2Yaz Permalink 2:27 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Stability is owed to the following: Christians believe Lebanon is the first stop in the West (Europa was Phoenician); Sunnis believe Lebanon is the last stop in the East; Shiites (now) believe Lebanon is just Lebanon. Permalink 2:18 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@NickSzabo4 The more San Francisco code censors this topic, the more I’m going to retweet the many great censored tweets on it. The New York Times has with no remorse hired a pathological racist and sexist fuck to edit and write on technology and the people who have or are building it. https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1025240297876451333   Permalink 11:23 PM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I guess the NYT didn’t “fact check” historical pictures https://twitter.com/decafquest/status/1024516715567300608?s=21   Permalink 6:27 AM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The Shouf mountains this morning: much greener than in 1900. pic.twitter.com/VRMfD6HrnK Permalink 4:45 AM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Statistics is not being fooled by randomness, not reading coffee cups and neo-astrology. If you don’t get it, then you get blocked. Permalink 2:07 PM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I won’t say what it is; the mother of all paleo food in an Armenian-Aleppo rstrnt in Central Phoenicia. pic.twitter.com/g24zupcrbJ Permalink 12:32 PM – 1 Aug 2018

@Ekaitzsaies ANNOUNCEMENT: On the 10th of October we are going to organise a meet-up in Orio (Basque Country) to talk about @nntaleb ´s ideas. Permalink 11:31 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb So far in 2018, 6 peer-reviewed papers, 2 with @DrCirillo, 4 as single author. https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1024670339484344320   Permalink 7:58 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Menu written in Lebanez pic.twitter.com/fDaN0bhrje Permalink 4:24 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb With the archeologist and Phoenicologist Hareth (Aretas) Boustany, who turned out to be the father of twitter friend ⁦@BoustanyMazen⁩ (and son of mega-erudite Fouad Ephrem) pic.twitter.com/DHylfAOmwx Permalink 4:14 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) We know that osteocalcin restores muscle endurance. Muscles strength are less investigated. Again fughedabout mechanisms, take phenomenology: @CoachRippetoe reports that only heavy weight bearing exercises you do standing up count. pic.twitter.com/KPJCxDm8xU Permalink 1:04 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The bone also regulates memory and mental functions via osteocalcin (Karsenty). SPECULATION: can healthier bones for overweight pple explain the all-cause-mortality effect? POLICY: just follow the phenomenology that healthy pplw have healthy bones and ignore mechanisms? Permalink 12:47 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Antifragile on health of bones: bones are part of the endocrine system, not some engineering structure. You don’t improve your bone with exercise machine. @Mangan150 attributes the fertility crisis to correlative (Om 6), not causative (osteopenia) #Complexity #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/rPWu2JLqg6 Permalink 12:44 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria controls the monoculture narrative. https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1024013693946933249   Permalink 11:06 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And avoid the fossil fuel propaganda: the greening does not come from CO2 but rather from irrigation… correlates to GDP. Permalink 8:03 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So another BEFORE-AFTER, Deir l 2amar 1900-2018 pic.twitter.com/xmsrFETVjx Permalink 6:39 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Took this picture yesterday in Kfar7azir coming from the Med. The hill was completely barren during my childhood. And this is a picture of Deir el 2amar in ~1900 pic.twitter.com/DhZuZjoxmw Permalink 6:31 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The problem with low-skilled intellektshuals and journos s.a. @robGmacfarlane and the “brilliant” @ABarnardNYT is that they think they understand technical things & impose fortune cookie thinking on Leb ecology or the Syrian war. BS Vendors https://twitter.com/RobGMacfarlane/status/1022362765963550720   Permalink 6:24 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@SvetlanaBogom13 Flying up high and still in earthly colors. Alexander’s photo from his last winter on this plain@CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/yb66KaOrTf Permalink 5:51 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/ysV1mk5Mmp Permalink 4:20 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Geoff and Vince have a powerful view of the naturalistic preferences of city dwellers. https://twitter.com/geoffreydgraham/status/1024060970715566080   Permalink 4:35 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) In other words, we have to live with the fact that some languages may not have hierarchical family trees. Permalink 3:28 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Even Greenberg’s broader classification of branches is, scientifically speaking, grossly pulled out of a hat. (We are seeing some laterality uncovered by @Safaitic, which means ignore “dialects” as “branches” for now and focus on something structural). Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) @iosif_lazaridis mentioned how older, “just so” taxonomies turned out to not map to the trees made *on the fly* before phylogenetics (sequncng) My bone is tagging Levantine as *branch of*Arabic as proposed by @PhDniX and @lameensouag rather than, the reverse or *laterality* pic.twitter.com/n5N21QE6n3 Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) The point I stressed is that, unlike genetics that is based on hard science, we should ignore traditional linguistics with its”on the fly” classifications, particularly the horribly sorry state of Semitic linguistics. https://twitter.com/PZalloua/status/1022301220113920001   Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Current Lebanon has been mysteriously internally stable (now for three decades) partly because every single ethnoreligious group is now a minority (Christians, Shiites, Sunnis, etc.) There is neither minority nor majority rule (Tocqueville’s dream). @PZalloua Permalink 2:40 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Defending @elonmusk … but still the waist is thin. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1023956974252240896   Permalink 8:46 AM – 30 Jul 2018

@DavidBCollum Seems to me that Stephen Hadley, Ratheon director, should be investigated, if appropriate, tried for treason, and, if guilty, hung from the neck until dead… https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-28/robert-fisk-i-traced-missile-casings-syria-back-their-original-sellers   Permalink 8:21 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb On the way. https://twitter.com/ban_kanj/status/1023570127902523392   Permalink 2:08 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 Do any Roman/Greek Experts in epigraphy know what this says ? @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/s9y87OVP1l Permalink 12:54 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For nitpickers what I call Northern Phoenicia is North of Byblos. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/391SUDxJQz Permalink 8:16 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb On my way to Northern Phoenicia. This is the first plane trip in years without the company of math quizzes by Maestro @CutTheKnotMath Alexander Bogomolny left us three weeks ago. Permalink 7:58 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@J_MaestreVidal As a researcher that usually resort on forecasting solutions, I have drawn countless times on the @spyrosmakrid time series collections. Today I had the opportunity to deal with the M4 dataset. Veredict: they did it again! Brilliant work, as always #MachineLearning #AI #forecast pic.twitter.com/sJ9wZWZXKD Permalink 7:00 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Just as we coined “pedophrasty” as a term to indicate the use of salient images of children by charlatans to sell their fakes (it suspends criticism), we need a term for the squalid argument “for the poor” to sell such crap as GMOs. Penophrasty? Ptochophrasty? Latin better? https://twitter.com/calebwatney/status/1023292528924282881   Permalink 4:59 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@foodtechhacker Nature represents approximately NP strong solutions. We don’t get this. We need to accept it. But if we did, we’d have to reject nearly everything that makes up our economy. If you don’t understand NP, read here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem   @nntaleb @SeloSlav Permalink 5:25 PM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Cedar trees may have a problem, but in an ecology some species will always be maladapted in a changing environment and others will thrive. Permalink 10:42 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The NYT article by @ABarnardNYT (characteristically) misrepresents the environmental situation in Lebanon & might discourage the overactive Lebanese evironmentalists. There has been a significant reforestation of the place. (Thread) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1014165996083580931   Permalink 10:25 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Fat Tailed Random Matrices (TECHNICAL INCERTO, Vol 1) https://www.dropbox.com/s/bq2lhmoo9v686ap/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%201.pdf?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nUkeH73PgY”>  pic.twitter.com/nUkeH73PgY Permalink 8:28 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@psi_theta “Wittgenstein’s ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler’s reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler.” — @nntaleb An unreliable/dumb source gives more information about itself than the information it forwards. Permalink 4:01 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@CCavafy C.P. Cavafy, “According to the Formulas of Ancient Greco–Syrian Magicians”, translated by @DMendelsohn1960 #poetry #Greece pic.twitter.com/gnyEqw2wBU Permalink 3:50 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A point that this ignorant Matti Ilmanen @milmanen didn’t get. Permalink 5:32 PM – 27 Jul 2018

@RonPaul Come see Nassim Nicholas Taleb and many other GREAT speakers at my Institute for Peace and Prosperity’s “Media & War” conference on August 18th in Washington, DC! More info and tickets: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/rpi-peace-and-prosperity-2018-media-war-tickets-46590140364   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jUsbpm0pvo”>  pic.twitter.com/jUsbpm0pvo Permalink 1:29 PM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This said, I also insisted on the role of priors in (some) medical decisions to manage false positives/negatives. Permalink 9:48 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Found a Tesla supercharger on Boston-NY near artisanal burger rstrnt (keto-friendly) that serves espresso. Nice break for twitter fights with Bayesianistas. pic.twitter.com/kUqkvGbJWA Permalink 9:39 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@cdipaola62 I think Taleb actually said, “F—k Bayes.” Which made a lot more sense to me than some of the equations…glad he was there to interpret for me. Permalink 9:20 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The idea behing “Bayesian” approaches is that if 2 pple have different priors, they will eventually converge to the same estimation, via updating. A “wrong” prior is therefore OK. Under fat tails, if you have the wrong prior, you never get there. (Taleb & Pilpel, 2004) Gabish? https://twitter.com/davidsarac/status/1022643234160357376   Permalink 9:16 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@kavehdaneshvar Not every day you get so much complexity in one place! @nntaleb #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/r6Hwf20DuQ Permalink 6:41 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@djpardis Risk, fat tails, and precaution workshop at #ICCS2018 “Longevity comes from a volatile heartbeat” —@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/Zqhn84JpqC Permalink 6:01 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@nntaleb His gadness ⁦@GadSaad⁩ in the workshop. pic.twitter.com/mcZZxiXcvX Permalink 4:13 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Alexander the Great makes @realDonaldTrump look like Mother Teresa.” Permalink 1:16 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik Free advice: the lunch crowd has decided that the next @black_swan_man comic should have incompetent supervillain @R_Thaler who tries to nudge @nntaleb into trouble @normonics Permalink 9:40 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik Nonlinearity in travel time, like @nntaleb said in Antifragile #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/RuqlB27Ozg Permalink 8:06 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@HardeepSPuri Also took time out to meet my friend, the famous author of several critically acclaimed bestsellers @nntaleb I have always enjoyed our intellectually stimulating discussions. This one was after a long time & first since I became a Minister. (3/3) pic.twitter.com/waDQOkVTBN Permalink 4:28 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@PZalloua Discussing Levantine genetics, and the spread of the Semitic language with L. Lazaridis, D. Reich and NN Taleb over a Mediterranean meal! @nntaleb @iosif_lazaridis pic.twitter.com/F7kpUCXyHU Permalink 7:02 PM – 25 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Almost there… https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1022113434828189696   Permalink 7:35 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@LetsWorkHappy Learning more about fat tails from @nntaleb at #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/ihRaT6t2wM Permalink 7:12 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@mZargham .@nntaleb — tearing apart ‘scientific’ concepts built based on empirically invalid mathematical assumptions. starting over with more realistic mathematical assumptions to derive new principles. #ICCS2018 justifying my decisions to favor product based dynamic decision policies! pic.twitter.com/qhMkkrxl3k Permalink 6:50 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@RhysLindmark 3/1 @nntaleb begins his talk with this overview: “What happens when you look at risk *dynamically* not *statically*?” #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:39 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@DTFinegood .@nntaleb “p values are not scientific”. #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/mFPFv3S5HV Permalink 6:28 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@nntaleb With @GadSaad @MichaelSagnerMD @normonics @HarryDCrane #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/4fzFByyz7U Permalink 6:06 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@EdmondAwad Twitter coming to real life at #ICCS18 @nntaleb @GadSaad @MichaelSagnerMD @normonics @HarryDCrane pic.twitter.com/kY5NN65Zwq Permalink 6:05 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD with the crew @nntaleb @PZalloua @trishankkarthik in Boston pic.twitter.com/Kmb6N4gaQC Permalink 6:04 PM – 24 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Respect for the firefighters and #PrayForGreece Permalink 7:06 AM – 24 Jul 2018

@Ekaitzsaies Hi @GuruAnaerobic ! Mr @urtatses and I had our first meeting this afternoon to start organizing a meet-up in the Basque Country to talk about @nntaleb ‘s ideas this November. Classroom Barbells First 2 speakers (him & I) Are you joining us? Anyone else? pic.twitter.com/Tpe2s7nALT Permalink 11:22 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends, for the paperback edition, we are looking for comments on Skin in the Game from people with Skin in the Game (not reviewers), that is actually users. If you have a comment, please give us your first name and city of residence. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/6vj1mbNNJT Permalink 9:15 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@nntaleb With @GadSaad and @PZalloua at #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/iP7KtiXzGm Permalink 7:42 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@MimeticValue #ExistentialRisk #EffectiveAltruism #TemporalEmpathy pic.twitter.com/5b35BihdAf Permalink 3:22 PM – 22 Jul 2018

Eric Weinstein, NYT, Education, Pippa Malgren, Palanga, Historians, Kurds, Monsanto | Twitter

@mikeandallie @nntaleb recommended this book 3 weeks ago. This chart in the beginning explains a puzzle I’ve wondered about in insurance for 15 years. pic.twitter.com/xLpjl3dQkt Permalink 4:42 PM – 25 Sep 2017

@yaneerbaryam #AI: Using it and consequences for business risk & opportunity w/ @nntaleb @alex_pentland scholarships available: https://lnkd.in/dUP9gDA   Permalink 2:09 PM – 25 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Just a reminder that we’ve survived 13 centuries.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/912303968344211456   Permalink 8:10 AM – 25 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Byzantine hymns in Greek in Amioun yesterday. pic.twitter.com/iJ1uWZxBoe Permalink 6:13 AM – 25 Sep 2017

@FriedrichHayek Whatever you think of Taleb, he grabs on to core problems that others ignore or don’t see and shakes them like an attack dog on a leg.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/911948333085872128   Permalink 10:41 AM – 24 Sep 2017

@chelenki @nntaleb just about died laughing reading this review on #blackswan https://twitter.com/AmznMovieRevws/status/911624254558367744   Permalink 10:12 AM – 24 Sep 2017

@nntaleb I am dumb when I don’t have skin in the game. pic.twitter.com/ZsGZyJe1NU Permalink 6:40 AM – 24 Sep 2017

@VanessaBeeley New York first responders connect to #AlQaeda, you know the group they think is behind 9/11. #World_gone_Mad @21WIRE @RenieriArtshttps://twitter.com/mayorsCAU/status/911622888482099201   Permalink 3:37 AM – 24 Sep 2017

@nntaleb And the Solid Eric Weinstein is misquoted in same NYT article. Anyone who cites the NYT has a pbm.https://twitter.com/EricRWeinstein/status/911665817762148352   Permalink 3:00 PM – 23 Sep 2017

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 2:49 PM – 23 Sep 2017

@nntaleb This GROSS misrepresentation by NYT is the reason I will not pre-release my book to them for reviews. They will have to buy it after publ.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/911705844882051073   Permalink 2:47 PM – 23 Sep 2017

@nntaleb NYT misrepresents thesis as “biologically less capable of engineering.” NYT has pbms in reading comprehension!!!https://nyti.ms/2yjYlL6   Permalink 2:36 PM – 23 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Fact checking something for the book. Do royals have to take more risks during war? pic.twitter.com/XDHUs9PYK9 Permalink 1:42 PM – 23 Sep 2017

@nntaleb The picture in the thread is at Heathrow. U.K. raises tons of cash by marketing to label- conscious Gucci- wearing rich foreigners w/kids. Permalink 5:36 AM – 23 Sep 2017

@nntaleb What I mean by “education” is the current institutional framework. It bears less & less resemblance to its historical antecedents. Permalink 5:24 AM – 23 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Education needs to KEEP proving itself. Permalink 4:43 AM – 23 Sep 2017

@nntaleb No. Education was, at some point great, fast becoming rent-seeking for a group of parasites IYIs who indoctrinate our youths. pic.twitter.com/IklI1CYsp0 Permalink 4:41 AM – 23 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Observe the variability between individuals > variability in age (distrib of age). The same applies to mental sharpness.https://twitter.com/MongoAggression/status/911369414053847041   Permalink 4:32 PM – 22 Sep 2017

@andrejpwalker Any Conservative who had put 40,000 (mostly) immigrant workers on the dole in one pen stroke would’ve been RUINED for it. #Uber @SadiqKhan pic.twitter.com/WNE2agcw72 Permalink 2:03 PM – 22 Sep 2017

@johnabarnes32 Editing a @nntaleb aphorism: don’t take someone’s book recommendation seriously unless he’s read it twice. Permalink 9:57 AM – 22 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule in action. One Polish, one Lithuanian, one Latvian, 3 neighboring countries, conversing in English. (With permission). pic.twitter.com/VarPydi6JC Permalink 8:52 AM – 22 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Now that the book is finished (sort of), I can do probability for entertainment. pic.twitter.com/iqurPT7zlh Permalink 7:30 AM – 22 Sep 2017

@thackerpd .@dannyhakim story on #Monsanto & dicamba link to this video looking at #dicamba impacts across Americahttps://vimeo.com/232115660   Permalink 7:01 AM – 22 Sep 2017

@DineshDSouza This reads like a parody but apparently isn’t–they’re even more crooked than we thoughthttps://twitter.com/kwilli1046/status/911059276554280960   Permalink 6:16 AM – 22 Sep 2017

@nntaleb “Dr” please show me a SINGLE paper by historians not misestimating violence. A single one will do. Tawkers… Permalink 4:39 AM – 22 Sep 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Curious #mahfacthttps://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/911086139590578178   Permalink 4:30 AM – 22 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Abandoned swimming pool. pic.twitter.com/02dS3DAsrN Permalink 4:23 AM – 22 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Tourism: visiting abandoned Soviet structures in Lithuania. #Realworld tourism. pic.twitter.com/oivAeIXkAK Permalink 3:53 AM – 22 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Pippa Malgren @DrPippaM took a break from signing, so I signed a few of her books. pic.twitter.com/QtPVDyavkL Permalink 3:05 AM – 22 Sep 2017

@nntaleb This link between Marathon and “saving” Western Civilization is what I call overfitting. History is largely bullshitters.https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/910966259629592576   Permalink 5:36 PM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 1) The strategy of Monsanto-funded smear campaigners like Dietwald Claus is to wait for someone to attack someone then come in w/remarks. Permalink 12:01 PM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb I know, calling “idiot” someone who is not an MD & reads archives for a living, yet has “Dr” in his twitter handle would hurrrrrrrrrrrrrt. Permalink 9:02 AM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Another idiot who probably overfits without knowing it is a bad thing.https://twitter.com/BernardWilkin/status/910889204288311296   Permalink 8:33 AM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb I actually mean historians are worse: they don’t understand what “overfitting” means & think by doing it they are “sophisticated”. Permalink 8:14 AM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Thalassa! After a long walk in the pine forest, the Baltic Sea. pic.twitter.com/kcTT4R6Jxv Permalink 6:06 AM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Pullman is a bullshit vendor, so you need to help him out a bit. Permalink 5:23 AM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb #Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/910833182966272001   Permalink 4:55 AM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb And if historians keep saying “no, we don’t overfit”, answer: well… yes you do overfit & don’t know it. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   Permalink 3:19 AM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Can someone answer that idiot?https://twitter.com/nickhassey/status/910785313311686656   Permalink 2:43 AM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Palanga, Lithuania. About to start my lektchur. pic.twitter.com/IzYnrBgFUF Permalink 12:59 AM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Typical overfitting by…historians. This was written before.https://twitter.com/lottelydia/status/910769747725307904   Permalink 12:38 AM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Why are you so dishonest as to validate my point abt historians? Answer THIS: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   Permalink 12:27 AM – 21 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Another ignorant-ignorant of their ignorance:@carolinepennock Permalink 11:52 PM – 20 Sep 2017

@nntaleb The remarkable ability of people of being so ignorant as to not understand the charges of ignorance levelled at them https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315##  https://twitter.com/DrSKBarker/status/910754938573266945   Permalink 11:47 PM – 20 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Even better, wait 1 week minimum before answering nonimmediate mail. Best is 1 month.https://twitter.com/StephenFleming/status/910746347346604032   Permalink 11:08 PM – 20 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Our synthesis of pbm w/historiography. Another one on misestimations on the way. @BenedictEvans is an idiot. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315##   Permalink 11:01 PM – 20 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Benedict Evans @BenedictEvans is an imbecile who just throws words without knowing what he is talking about. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315##  https://twitter.com/BenedictEvans/status/910716132675293186   Permalink 10:58 PM – 20 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Give someone an inch, they will ask for a mile. Permalink 6:59 AM – 20 Sep 2017

@nntaleb After the Kurds (eventually) get their state, you can imagine a breakup of Turkey.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/910490777658314753   Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Sep 2017

@nntaleb When you want a fool to teach your children how to NOT think, Monbiot works well. Permalink 5:10 AM – 20 Sep 2017

@GuruAnaerobic I think this qualifies as one of @nntaleb’s “literalists”.https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/910462575720239104   Permalink 5:02 AM – 20 Sep 2017

@byzantinepower Don’t claim to be “woke” if u haven’t got this book #Byzantium pic.twitter.com/CbY0kD7X24 Permalink 4:57 AM – 20 Sep 2017

@nntaleb They also teach them to lie. https://twitter.com/atif_rz/status/910239153018642432   Permalink 4:10 PM – 19 Sep 2017

@francispouliot_ Thanks to @nntaleb and @EconTalker for inspiring this essay on emergent order and antifragility. Thanks Bitcoin ecosystem for making it realhttps://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/910203565297291264   Permalink 11:29 AM – 19 Sep 2017

@nntaleb There is something common to modern “liberal” and Sunni-Salafi education: They teach students answers rather than how to ask questions. Permalink 9:13 AM – 19 Sep 2017

@garyruskin How #Monsanto Manufactured ‘Outrage’ at #Glyphosate Cancer Classification It Expected http://bit.ly/2hfxY69   by @careygillam @USRightToKnow Permalink 8:40 AM – 19 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Lecturing on catastrophic/tail risks in Bermuda. When in Rome… pic.twitter.com/oWs7NNwtJ4 Permalink 4:37 AM – 19 Sep 2017

@nntaleb The problem of SJW, universalists, globalists, Islamists, neo-atheists, and modernists is that they take everything, every word) literally. Permalink 3:05 AM – 19 Sep 2017

@nntaleb The point is not that @peterdaou has the IQ of a cauliflower. It’s that the press is 1) a monoculture, 2) dying a slow but certain death. https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonnyc/status/909907008614289408   Permalink 3:40 PM – 18 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Copy editors are English majors victims of thought police… One wanted to change “American-style Options” to “U.S.-style” as more PC. Permalink 10:58 AM – 18 Sep 2017

@martyrmade As @johnrobb points out, this cartoon is no analogy for political/financial/journalism experts because pilots have skin in the game @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/c5B70r4CQd Permalink 10:44 AM – 18 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Corrected. I tend to post on twitter without even rereading. pic.twitter.com/u3JXovmpZe Permalink 5:51 AM – 18 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Organization of the book. pic.twitter.com/0rkjPy8q8E Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Sep 2017

@sentantiq “When the government is at its most corrupt, the more laws [there are].” corruptissima re publica plurimae leges #Tacitus Permalink 4:14 PM – 17 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Classical misestimation and biases by historians: history is anecdotes + BS + hearsay+ occasional truths…https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/908280018320723968   Permalink 5:31 AM – 17 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Fiction vs Nonfiction, go with fiction.https://twitter.com/paul_jorgenson/status/909390775900884992   Permalink 5:21 AM – 17 Sep 2017

@turlevnon #syriac_calendar pic.twitter.com/AsCBvcUHvP Permalink 10:35 PM – 16 Sep 2017

@nntaleb I am adding this to Skin In the Game. Anyone knows a good translator of TEX into Word? pic.twitter.com/JLZLIjPcpc Permalink 3:06 PM – 15 Sep 2017

@nntaleb The highest compliment. But I wonder which group I personally fall into.https://twitter.com/sensecurator/status/908745783985315840   Permalink 2:45 PM – 15 Sep 2017

@pauld1981 Symmetry you’re poor: they can corrupt u by giving you money -cheap you’re rich: they can corrupt u by not confiscating your money -cheaper Permalink 11:55 AM – 15 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Now that the book is done: Writing is 95% walking, 5% sitting. Mathematics is 95% sitting, 5% walking. Permalink 10:41 AM – 15 Sep 2017

@ThalesLives Ever since reading @nntaleb’s books and articles, my bullshit detector has been much improved. If you haven’t read his work yet, do so. Permalink 10:10 AM – 15 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Friday Follow: @CutTheKnotMath for mathematical brainteasers. Like finding a parking spot in NY, never easy, never impossible #TwitterMathhttps://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/908353890701242369   Permalink 8:41 AM – 15 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Little by little, a file on the behavior of MSM w/r to Syria is being built.https://twitter.com/catoletters/status/908428948513714176   Permalink 1:47 PM – 14 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Friends, any translation of this (tarqtu’l khalqa tarran…)? Thanks pic.twitter.com/BDm9loTqYh Permalink 11:02 AM – 14 Sep 2017

@philipbstark 1/ Probs w #GMO crops not just farm practices & herbicides: https://archive.org/details/AlteredGenesTwistedTruthByStevenDrukerHD1080p   .@nntaleb .@bittman .@UCBerkeleyFood @michaelpollan Permalink 8:42 AM – 14 Sep 2017

@Biixi001 Can U believe!? NewYorker just outed @nntaleb – not just flaneuring/chasing lost wisdom&IYIs, also taking care of lost property in Paris pic.twitter.com/3x8jH4z4VN Permalink 8:00 AM – 14 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life Permalink 7:41 AM – 14 Sep 2017

@nntaleb So Mr Makram Rabah, pls explain why your work should be read when: You (willfully) mislabel You fabricate facts You lie on your resumé Permalink 5:14 AM – 14 Sep 2017

@nntaleb This expression @ektrit you seem to attribute to Saint Morcos of Ephesus. True? pic.twitter.com/LnDAVM8EvY Permalink 4:13 AM – 14 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Historians focus on the lurid and discount absence of evidence, with huge distortions in accounts. pic.twitter.com/YePixIeYa5 Permalink 3:43 AM – 14 Sep 2017

@DavidDuPouy Antifragile is BIG in Japan @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/E2VhpCqLRe Permalink 5:12 PM – 13 Sep 2017

Qatar/Saudi Barbaria, Iain McGilchrist, @Expedia, Peace, #NYT, Hammurabi’s Code, Policy Goons

@nntaleb 12 months @Jmanos195Manos Permalink 12:54 PM – 8 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Waited 12 m for this: Amsterdam has, for the nondietaryfatphobic, the best steak in the world (Holstein). pic.twitter.com/Wai9d048Y8 Permalink 12:34 PM – 8 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Evidence @djrothkopf boss of Foreign Policy is for sale. Shameful that our foreign policy is manipulated by Jihadis.https://twitter.com/bitsquare_/status/806924154171637760   Permalink 10:15 AM – 8 Dec 2016

@nntaleb You can start filtering out Mainstream Media by blocking any article w/”populist” or “populism” in it, citing someone from a think tank. Permalink 9:43 AM – 8 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Rich people aren’t necessarily incorruptible; but they can be much, much more expensive to bribe. Permalink 3:36 PM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This reveals much. Names named: the way to go. Includes Rothkopf How Saudi Arabia captured Washington http://www.vox.com/2016/3/21/11275354/saudi-arabia-gulf-washington?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=feature%3Afixed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter   via @voxdotcom Permalink 3:29 PM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb How many believe this independent BS? Fraudster @emile_hokayem secretly paid by Bahrain for “independent” promotion https://twitter.com/emile_hokayem/status/806593003615899650   Permalink 2:09 PM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 1/Western Syria’s population [C on the map] act, look, & eat like Mediterraneans/Southern Europeans, includes Sunnishttps://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/806497987404906497   Permalink 9:54 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Now this explains bombardment of pro-Jihadi articles by this goon: @emile_hokayem who works there!!! Shame! Shame!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/806510667087876096   Permalink 9:37 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Back office people don’t know that there is a difference between front and back office. Everyone else does.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/806487322728472576   Permalink 7:12 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb They tried to hide it! Never trust thinktanks. British thinktank received £25m from Bahraini royals, docs revealhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/06/british-thinktank-iiss-received-25m-from-bahraini-royals-documents-reveal?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 6:48 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Physicists take something complicated & make it simpler. Psychologists take something very complicated & make it even more complicated. Permalink 5:39 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Recent rebellion/Trump: Front office pple (most of us) don’t want to be controlled by *back office* clercs. Kapish?https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.yy4z897cd   Permalink 5:15 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@CDcaritas @leverageisgreat @nntalebhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/06/british-thinktank-iiss-received-25m-from-bahraini-royals-documents-reveal   Permalink 12:45 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Think tanks financed by Qatar/Saudi Barbaria want people to believe this crap. Many do!https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/syrian-president-bashar-al-assad-bigger-threat-than-isis?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 12:33 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@RiskMinds RiskMinds Live starts in 1 hr! It’s not too late to register to watch @nntaleb and others live from #RISKMINDS: http://spr.ly/60168yy38   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nZ85h5jYcr”>  pic.twitter.com/nZ85h5jYcr Permalink 11:10 PM – 6 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Transforming an unbounded into a bounded martingale (by Ito’s lemma), thanks to airline delays. pic.twitter.com/LXxzhTh4k8 Permalink 4:28 AM – 6 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Can someone explain to this fellow that forall their flaws dentists know their stuff >> than policymakers/Krugmans?https://twitter.com/louis_giannone/status/805936971591938048   Permalink 5:03 PM – 5 Dec 2016

@jgmarcel () “experienced” & “professional” politicians are just as desirable as professional lovers, that is, prostitutes. — Nassim Taleb (@nntaleb) pic.twitter.com/rc4kjcHphc Permalink 4:00 PM – 5 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Almost…https://twitter.com/bryanappleyard/status/805885857416810496   Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Debunkkng conspiracy Assad-ISIShttps://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/805816603489292288   Permalink 12:56 PM – 5 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The episodic John Gray appreciation dinner w/ @BryanAppleyard @rorysutherland & McGilchrist at Gray’s favorite rest pic.twitter.com/vz3a4PRLYv Permalink 12:54 PM – 5 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Another squid ink risotto. Pasta is better. pic.twitter.com/fMdTF5DkUk Permalink 6:02 AM – 5 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Squid ink risotto pic.twitter.com/y4a0V6PzIm Permalink 5:44 AM – 4 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The point of paying is to guarantee a room: no optionality. There is an asymmetry: if the client cancels he pays… not them! @Expedia Permalink 5:03 PM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Beware @Expedia. Prepaid a suite in London, very late arrival &… the hotel sends me to another part of town, tiny room w/o refund. Permalink 4:51 PM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb People discovered the NYT was effectively fiction; trash fiction sells the most! https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/804450963268444160   Permalink 5:45 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Dear @stevenstrogatz , an accolade coming from a mathematician is worth >10^3 compliments by other mortals. Permalink 5:36 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@dellajoNYC @borzou @jackshafer He attacked you because you are a propagandist for Al Qaeda, the folks who gave us 9/11, and therefore human skum. FYI. Permalink 5:34 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Number of casualties is not *statistical* data/estimates? Explains Brexit: Brussels IYIs shd limit activities to driving Uber c (carefully).https://twitter.com/nicolas_veron/status/805032648959787009   Permalink 5:13 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The day flight to London. pic.twitter.com/aWy6RcaK2Z Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Exactly: “People are better neighbors than roommates” @JohnGaltPattaya Permalink 4:43 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Utopism: make pple hold hands & sing mawkish songs Realism: structures to allow interactions w/o harm:#skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/804949462217007104   Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Mr @borzou-fabricator, did you realize you called Trump a tyrant when he has never held office. Did they have basic IQ screening at the FT? Permalink 4:11 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Philology du Jour: a word (the obvious) that has survived 4000 years in Semitic languages. “N***” in Akkadian… pic.twitter.com/f9ig37tszx Permalink 1:25 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@alxpr1c3 @nntaleb a #vianegativa approach would then be – the aim of “peace” is to avoid lethal conflicts? Permalink 11:35 PM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The aim of “peace” is to make people interract while hating one another the way the French hate Germans/English, not to sing campfire songs. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/804335904009711616   Permalink 11:24 PM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb You can spot a (low IQ) crypto-Jihadi such as @sahdihamid at his geopolitization of conflict ag. Islamists.https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/804779650463531008   Permalink 5:01 PM – 2 Dec 2016

@cdipaola62 @nntaleb @SteveRattner teaching birds 2 fly. Citizens don’t need complex formulas to detect BS of IYI’s who use first order math to scare. Permalink 4:58 PM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Elementary 2nd order accounting: Employees in US happen to *pay* taxes; or spend money => others who pay taxes.https://twitter.com/SteveRattner/status/804414616520359937   Permalink 12:56 PM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb If, against experience, you still read the #NYT, remember it was the conveyor of the most destructive fake news: Iraq. @nyinvesting @han0z Permalink 12:04 PM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame shows how, in absence of saints, we’d rather pick the rich (contact w/reality), to those who *want* to get rich. @Scaramucci Permalink 10:56 AM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The other argument is that those who *need* a salary are vulnerable to lobbying /revolving door bribery.https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/804131401528287232   Permalink 10:33 AM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Yes, Gibbon has mistakes. So does Thucydides! On top of his skeptical charm, he led me to find holes in his acct. My favorite prose style! Permalink 8:06 AM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Does this make the “news” part of Holywood?https://twitter.com/ancientsyrian/status/804690299821891584   Permalink 6:41 AM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The disproof of a fabrication is not as visible as the fabrication. Why U.S. ‘News’ Media Shouldn’t Be Trusted http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/12/02/why-us-news-media-shouldnt-trusted.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter   Permalink 4:05 AM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb When I stood next to H’s code felt knowing it in Akkadian & reciting it w/original sounds. Code abt #skininthegame requires authenticity. pic.twitter.com/4ggFhO8K6v Permalink 7:16 PM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Conspiracy theory Assad=ISIS is a great IQ test: it proves incapacity to make up something remotely plausible.https://twitter.com/BradRHoff/status/804509487713439746   Permalink 6:46 PM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Finally got to read Hammurabi in the original Semitic rythm (thanks to the method of Albert Naccache) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/hammurabi.mp3   Permalink 5:58 PM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb People are starting to understand the difference between “denocracy” and governance @normonics @bill_easterly Permalink 10:29 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Only Gibbon: Twenty-two acknowledged concubines, and a library of sixty-two thousand volumes, attested the variety.. pic.twitter.com/GeCTFO9cyc Permalink 8:38 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb When people ask me “what should I read”, I used to avoid responding. Now, here is something necessary in anyone’s ed pic.twitter.com/mxmabxeiTG Permalink 8:16 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Effectively there was *inverse* ethnic cleansing after Qaeda left Aleppo.https://twitter.com/CamilleOtrakji/status/804342907960487936   Permalink 7:16 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb COMPLEX SYSTEMS: Problem of Oslo is top-down (diplomatic) solution for bottom-up problem. @yaneerbaryam pic.twitter.com/KNQCgGTzx8 Permalink 6:46 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@internetactu Le plus intolérant l’emporte toujours : la dictature de la plus petite minorité par @nntaleb http://www.internetactu.net/a-lire-ailleurs/le-plus-intolerant-lemporte-toujours-la-dictature-de-la-plus-petite-minorite/   Permalink 5:33 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Gingrich doesn’t want IYIs in government. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.qd6ryx4q4  https://twitter.com/BoustanyMazen/status/804187163122397184   Permalink 5:01 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Gingrich doesn’t want IYIs in government. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.qd6ryx4q4   https://twitter.com/BoustanyMazen/status/804187163122397184   Permalink 5:01 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb A visit to the NYU Philosophy department (logic) wd confirm that butchering, whether for 8 or 15 y, = butcher. Kapish? @ianbremmer Permalink 2:55 PM – 30 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Yet Barak Hussain Obama is not called “the butcher of Washington”.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/804049099528040448   Permalink 11:48 AM – 30 Nov 2016

@DrCirillo If you missed it, my recent not-too-technical paper on armed conflicts and their tail risk, joint with @nntaleb. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2876315   Permalink 10:07 AM – 30 Nov 2016

@nntaleb People in political “science” & policy wonks such must attend so they know why we think they are clueless.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/803987190980235264   Permalink 7:42 AM – 30 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Friends, anyone knows of a transcription of the Accadian of Hammurabi’s Law into Hebrew or another Semitic script? Permalink 7:40 AM – 30 Nov 2016

@nntaleb De Finetti was a smart cookie. How to forecast elections. pic.twitter.com/w7d050sQgT Permalink 4:55 AM – 30 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The tragedy of our time is the monoculture of ideas: all people are forced to believe the *same* bullshit. Permalink 6:42 AM – 29 Nov 2016

@MaxAbrahms It’s funny when media outlets interview multiple fellows from the same think tank for intellectual diversity. Permalink 4:22 AM – 29 Nov 2016

@nntaleb #IDreamOfAWorld where “science” promoters understand the difference between science and scientism.https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/802673096876494849   Permalink 8:03 AM – 28 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Probability & Medicine: Presenting 2 papers at U Penn S Med at 12 noon P-value https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532v3.pdf   Antifragility http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/medicine.pdf   Permalink 8:01 AM – 28 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Voila! “Small is beautiful” in the moralists! Vauvenargues: “men are not born to love large things”. #LindyEffect pic.twitter.com/W7WsC0cahK Permalink 3:10 AM – 28 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The only fiction I read in 2016 was reports on the Syrian “moderate” rebels.https://twitter.com/tylercowen/status/802130988407070720   Permalink 6:32 PM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Ready! pic.twitter.com/losrlULOtl Permalink 5:06 PM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Mr Borzou Daragahi, it is much, much more difficult to bullshit a statistician than your followers. Kapish? @borzou Permalink 1:24 PM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb These “journos” fabricate numbers, yet are employed by FT & LA times. https://medium.com/opacity/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.8nk0gt745  https://twitter.com/borzou/status/802981041891868672   Permalink 1:13 PM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Final version of our paper on “drop” in violence w/@DrCirillo (published by Nobel Foundation, forth 2017) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   Permalink 11:29 AM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Skin in the game,Trump, Theology and the experience machine: Nothing is real unless there is risk. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154363970418375   Permalink 9:11 AM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb More evidence IYIs collect my books without reading them. https://twitter.com/chloerlaw/status/802920034297331716   Permalink 9:08 AM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Unlike with other disciplines, protecting Philosophy from attack against Philosophy is unphilosophical.https://twitter.com/I_I_Rubin/status/802874079393050625   Permalink 6:14 AM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Greeks would be horrified at claim that some nerd at Harvard can teach you to be a man. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paideia   @bardiasoroudi @NoahRFeldman Permalink 3:29 PM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@bardiasoroudi @NoahRFeldman Violating law of logic: if some professors help doesn’t mean school is monopoly for humanities. Pitiful arg, Permalink 2:08 PM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Exactly:Harvard-Soviet illusion is identity school=knowledge;school=humanities (Lecturing birds how to fly chapter)https://twitter.com/sahilz79/status/802609383691714565   Permalink 12:54 PM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Found “less is more” (ag bigdata) in ancients #LindyEffect “Nimium allercando veritas amittilur” Publ Syr Excess details[words] hide truth Permalink 12:29 PM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Actually I showed in #Antifragile the biggest intellectual productions came from country priests (s.a.Bayes) @alexgiannotti @GhassanDahhan Permalink 11:50 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nerds do NOT understand #skininthegame. “Life is not about winning an argument [with a nerd like you] but about winning.” @NoahRFeldman Permalink 11:38 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb If you knew more latin & logic you’d realize that equating academia to authority IS ad hominem. @jtepper2 @NoahRFeldman @ChinchewPalsu Permalink 11:21 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Words that describe unerudite IYIs like you who think Harvard doesn’t provide ZERO intellectual credibility @NoahRFeldman @ChinchewPalsu Permalink 11:13 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Elnlightenment: Diderot Voltaire Rousseau Hume d’Allembert were NOT academics. Sorbonne was for idiots. @OriginalRamsFan @NoahRFeldman Permalink 11:09 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it takes half a century (Lindy) to know about influence. @NoahRFeldman @ChinchewPalsu Permalink 11:05 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Leibniz was trained as a legal scholar. He learned math in his mid 20s and (co) invented Calculus @GhassanDahhan Permalink 11:03 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Influential thinkers were scholars but NOT in academia: Darwin Marx Einstein (relativity) Freud Mandelbrot.. @ChinchewPalsu @NoahRFeldman Permalink 10:45 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You forgot the “subsequently”…”from commercial activity”. An idiot playing strawman with me?@BorisMarkovich Permalink 10:04 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@AssalehAmer “You are not getting the point that in risk we don’t give a fuck what people in “medical sciences” do, math prevails. kapish?” – @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/802492382608588800   Permalink 5:16 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb My talk Monday at U Penn School of Med http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/medicine.pdf   Lancet study on statins was ‘fundamentally flawed’http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/24/lancet-study-statins-fundamentally-flawed-critics-say/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw   Permalink 4:41 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Is McFarland a neocon or close to neocons or likely to mutate into a neocon? [Please corrigere my Latin] Permalink 3:03 PM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb IYI profs want you to believe one cannot read books without them; just like Taxi groups resist uber. Read classics. @ja_furman @NoahRFeldman Permalink 2:02 PM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb People who get good grades in “prestigious” nonSTEM majors are just signaling high ability to bullshit. @JamesMarsh79 Permalink 9:40 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nothing was funding since the fund went to 0. Counterparties synchronized the liquidations. @MarcoCraveiro @mattyglesias Permalink 8:31 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb LTCM was NOT a TAXPAYER bailout, but a Fed-coordinated liquidation w/counterparts & banks. Kapish? @MarcoCraveiro @mattyglesias Permalink 7:39 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Corollary: when a paper that engages in propaganda (W Post) accuses others of propaganda, is it propaganda?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/801960686876323841   Permalink 7:37 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb IYIs don’t get that: HedgeFund-ers have big #skininthegame, little hidden risk Less monoculture No taxpayer bailouthttps://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/802149869150466048   Permalink 6:09 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb #LindyEffect: 2y of INCERTO Fooled by Randomness (blue) is 16 y.o., TBS ~10. 99.9% of bestsellers don’t survive 2y. pic.twitter.com/eIZ2trE2mC Permalink 5:19 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Political “scientists” & Policy goons s a @dandrezner shd attend these courses so they know why we call them idiots.https://twitter.com/NECSI/status/801518855382302724   Permalink 4:17 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The meta question: is the news that Russia is spreading fake news fake news. Permalink 5:28 PM – 24 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I avoid reading nonmath recent books. But if I do, best heuristic: avoid books on the NYT list of “Notable Books”http://nyti.ms/2fSH7i2   Permalink 12:15 PM – 24 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Please note that @Charles_Lister is paid to fabricate numbers. Liar.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.rkwi12iz1   Permalink 8:27 AM – 24 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Ian, you should man up: stop whining, and cease to play arbiter of “adulthood”. Will feel better. @ianbremmer Permalink 7:31 AM – 24 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Happy Thanksgiving everyone! My 36th: I came to America to embrace the system & pledged to defend it. Will keep defending it. With Gratitude Permalink 7:15 AM – 24 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The plot thinckens. 2000 war casualties inflate over time to 30-40,000. Imbecile journos. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.gd9ozor7k   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JH6InUEliq”>  pic.twitter.com/JH6InUEliq Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Say something important, genuinely important. Hard for journos.https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/801476728732454912   Permalink 5:37 AM – 24 Nov 2016

@jbmacluckie Le mec (@nntaleb) m’a tellement influencé que j’ai deux références à lui encrées sur moi : pic.twitter.com/xDVXt5DGdM Permalink 11:09 PM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Is it me or is the Beaujolais Nouveau 2016 very very good? Permalink 3:11 PM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Trying to solve a difficult integral (one of those again). For those & only those into integration.http://math.stackexchange.com/q/2027844/88078?stw=2   Permalink 12:35 PM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Huffington Post, please explain *propaganda*. If you can. Thank you.@HuffPostGreece @HuffingtonPost pic.twitter.com/AwU0YWkhNX Permalink 11:32 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb No Huffington Post. pic.twitter.com/v6FSUimAkx Permalink 8:45 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Reason I don’t want Huffington Post to publish my work is the revelation that it “covertly” helped Hillary.Unethicalhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/801412424792477696   Permalink 7:55 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Well… it does!https://twitter.com/ArtVigRue/status/801447851033317376   Permalink 7:34 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Syriac version Malalas <= “eloquent” pic.twitter.com/I1WZJveNBJ Permalink 7:10 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine du Jour: The Great John Malalas had Aramaic name: Malal = orator. (New dictionary) pic.twitter.com/Y4PBrDlbkK Permalink 7:04 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The ugliest of humans looks better than the prettiest cockroach; the worst of businessmen looks more real than any professional politician. Permalink 6:54 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb They don’t know what “religion” means. Salafi isn’t a race. It isn’t a “religion”. It is a criminal organization.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e#.coa8tomua   Permalink 6:38 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Media idiots don’t realize that Alt-Right people are far, far more moderate than the “moderate” Salafi Islamists they are protecting! Shame. Permalink 5:37 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb World finally discovering that “experienced” &”professional” politicians are just as desirable as professional lovers, that is, prostitutes. Permalink 5:17 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Huff Post trying to make me look as if I wrote FOR them. I don’t write for them! Ο Διανοούμενος Πλην Όμως Ηλίθιος http://www.huffingtonpost.gr/nassim-nicholas-taleb/-_8521_b_13167866.html   Permalink 5:09 AM – 23 Nov 2016