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NYT, Osteocalcin, Lebanon, Reforestation, Bayesianistas | Twitter

On the Shadow Moments of Apparently Infinite-Mean Phenomena Authors Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Pasquale Cirillo

@nntaleb The idea of #skininthegame is that nobody shd cause risk to others without impunity.   Permalink 9:36 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb BS vending @josephinequinn is spreading theory that “Phoenicians didn’t exist”(loved by Arabists) on anachronistic acct of absence of national identity/self-designator (No Ph. integrated centralized rule). The Neanderthals never existed by same analysis. Same for Elephants… Permalink 9:29 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid This is the updated Outline of the paper “Forecasting in Social Sciences: State of the Art”. I would like to thank all those who send me comments and suggestions for improvements. I hope I have incorporated them correctly, given the constrain of not having > than 4 bullet points Permalink 7:59 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam The Precautionary Principle is considered by Court of Justice of the EU as an anchor of European Law in ruling that affects use of CRISPR genetic modification   @normonics @nntaleb @rupertread @PrecPrinciple Permalink 5:23 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@brian_trollz You harassed a man who had nothing to do with Bitcoin, based on nothing but what could only be interpreted as “evidence” in the mind of a deranged stalker, and you enjoyed being supported in that? Good to know. Permalink 6:15 PM – 4 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid I am working on part of a paper on “Forecasting in Social Sciences: State of the Art” to be part of the Special Issue of the International Journal of Forecasting on the M4 Competition.. Any comments, suggestions, differences, objections will be welcomed. Permalink 10:10 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is the upper portion of the Qadisha (pronounced here “2odisha”) valley today. You can see the rising tree-line from reforestation. Permalink 9:56 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The mountain had been terraced to farm staples (mostly wheat) & trees were of no use (except for fruit bearing ones). Unseen positive side effect of Ottoman Christian Millets inheritance laws. Permalink 9:29 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@normonics “risk denialists” is a better term. I’m going to go with that Better reveals their standing as ideologues   Permalink 7:12 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This forest in Northern Lebanon (7adat) is owed to the fact that it was agrigultural land & the owners died w/the Titanic. Nobody could get the right papers to farm. Permalink 4:37 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@EHSANI22 With all mixed reactions to @RaniaKhalek article below, it’s important to stay focused on the subject of reconciliation as a policy tool compared to the national land top down approach of Geneva that was pushed by a number of policy makers at the time. Small is beautiful @nntaleb   Permalink 1:08 PM – 3 Aug 2018

@primalpoly BTW, I don’t want the @NYTimesPR to fire Jeong. Demanding a firing implies some faith that a company could rediscover its ethical compass. Rather, I’m supporting a consumer boycott of a moribund newspaper that’s proven itself wickedly prejudiced & hopelessly partisan. Permalink 11:52 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb It’s not like when the NYT condoned/caused the Iraq invasion out of ignorance / arrogance. This is a blatant violation of fundamental ethics. Permalink 7:50 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Never compromise on fundamental ethics. Never. Be honorable and never read anything in the @nytimes Permalink 7:16 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb With left to right @PZalloua, Hareth (Aretas) Boustany, & Hiram Corm (son of Charles Corm) at the Charles Corm foundation. Permalink 6:29 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@Once_there_was_   A great provoking read by @nntaleb especially in current climate. Will always remember @nytimes apology letter. Permalink 6:22 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Too disgusted to talk to the @nytimes Permalink 2:27 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Stability is owed to the following: Christians believe Lebanon is the first stop in the West (Europa was Phoenician); Sunnis believe Lebanon is the last stop in the East; Shiites (now) believe Lebanon is just Lebanon. Permalink 2:18 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@NickSzabo4 The more San Francisco code censors this topic, the more I’m going to retweet the many great censored tweets on it. The New York Times has with no remorse hired a pathological racist and sexist fuck to edit and write on technology and the people who have or are building it.   Permalink 11:23 PM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I guess the NYT didn’t “fact check” historical pictures   Permalink 6:27 AM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The Shouf mountains this morning: much greener than in 1900. Permalink 4:45 AM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Statistics is not being fooled by randomness, not reading coffee cups and neo-astrology. If you don’t get it, then you get blocked. Permalink 2:07 PM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I won’t say what it is; the mother of all paleo food in an Armenian-Aleppo rstrnt in Central Phoenicia. Permalink 12:32 PM – 1 Aug 2018

@Ekaitzsaies ANNOUNCEMENT: On the 10th of October we are going to organise a meet-up in Orio (Basque Country) to talk about @nntaleb ´s ideas. Permalink 11:31 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb So far in 2018, 6 peer-reviewed papers, 2 with @DrCirillo, 4 as single author.   Permalink 7:58 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Menu written in Lebanez Permalink 4:24 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb With the archeologist and Phoenicologist Hareth (Aretas) Boustany, who turned out to be the father of twitter friend ⁦@BoustanyMazen⁩ (and son of mega-erudite Fouad Ephrem) Permalink 4:14 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) We know that osteocalcin restores muscle endurance. Muscles strength are less investigated. Again fughedabout mechanisms, take phenomenology: @CoachRippetoe reports that only heavy weight bearing exercises you do standing up count. Permalink 1:04 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The bone also regulates memory and mental functions via osteocalcin (Karsenty). SPECULATION: can healthier bones for overweight pple explain the all-cause-mortality effect? POLICY: just follow the phenomenology that healthy pplw have healthy bones and ignore mechanisms? Permalink 12:47 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Antifragile on health of bones: bones are part of the endocrine system, not some engineering structure. You don’t improve your bone with exercise machine. @Mangan150 attributes the fertility crisis to correlative (Om 6), not causative (osteopenia) #Complexity #ICCS2018 Permalink 12:44 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria controls the monoculture narrative.   Permalink 11:06 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And avoid the fossil fuel propaganda: the greening does not come from CO2 but rather from irrigation… correlates to GDP. Permalink 8:03 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So another BEFORE-AFTER, Deir l 2amar 1900-2018 Permalink 6:39 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Took this picture yesterday in Kfar7azir coming from the Med. The hill was completely barren during my childhood. And this is a picture of Deir el 2amar in ~1900 Permalink 6:31 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The problem with low-skilled intellektshuals and journos s.a. @robGmacfarlane and the “brilliant” @ABarnardNYT is that they think they understand technical things & impose fortune cookie thinking on Leb ecology or the Syrian war. BS Vendors   Permalink 6:24 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@SvetlanaBogom13 Flying up high and still in earthly colors. Alexander’s photo from his last winter on this plain@CutTheKnotMath Permalink 5:51 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink Permalink 4:20 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Geoff and Vince have a powerful view of the naturalistic preferences of city dwellers.   Permalink 4:35 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) In other words, we have to live with the fact that some languages may not have hierarchical family trees. Permalink 3:28 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Even Greenberg’s broader classification of branches is, scientifically speaking, grossly pulled out of a hat. (We are seeing some laterality uncovered by @Safaitic, which means ignore “dialects” as “branches” for now and focus on something structural). Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) @iosif_lazaridis mentioned how older, “just so” taxonomies turned out to not map to the trees made *on the fly* before phylogenetics (sequncng) My bone is tagging Levantine as *branch of*Arabic as proposed by @PhDniX and @lameensouag rather than, the reverse or *laterality* Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) The point I stressed is that, unlike genetics that is based on hard science, we should ignore traditional linguistics with its”on the fly” classifications, particularly the horribly sorry state of Semitic linguistics.   Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Current Lebanon has been mysteriously internally stable (now for three decades) partly because every single ethnoreligious group is now a minority (Christians, Shiites, Sunnis, etc.) There is neither minority nor majority rule (Tocqueville’s dream). @PZalloua Permalink 2:40 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Defending @elonmusk … but still the waist is thin.   Permalink 8:46 AM – 30 Jul 2018

@DavidBCollum Seems to me that Stephen Hadley, Ratheon director, should be investigated, if appropriate, tried for treason, and, if guilty, hung from the neck until dead…   Permalink 8:21 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb On the way.   Permalink 2:08 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 Do any Roman/Greek Experts in epigraphy know what this says ? @nntaleb Permalink 12:54 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For nitpickers what I call Northern Phoenicia is North of Byblos. Gabish? Permalink 8:16 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb On my way to Northern Phoenicia. This is the first plane trip in years without the company of math quizzes by Maestro @CutTheKnotMath Alexander Bogomolny left us three weeks ago. Permalink 7:58 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@J_MaestreVidal As a researcher that usually resort on forecasting solutions, I have drawn countless times on the @spyrosmakrid time series collections. Today I had the opportunity to deal with the M4 dataset. Veredict: they did it again! Brilliant work, as always #MachineLearning #AI #forecast Permalink 7:00 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Just as we coined “pedophrasty” as a term to indicate the use of salient images of children by charlatans to sell their fakes (it suspends criticism), we need a term for the squalid argument “for the poor” to sell such crap as GMOs. Penophrasty? Ptochophrasty? Latin better?   Permalink 4:59 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@foodtechhacker Nature represents approximately NP strong solutions. We don’t get this. We need to accept it. But if we did, we’d have to reject nearly everything that makes up our economy. If you don’t understand NP, read here:   @nntaleb @SeloSlav Permalink 5:25 PM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Cedar trees may have a problem, but in an ecology some species will always be maladapted in a changing environment and others will thrive. Permalink 10:42 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The NYT article by @ABarnardNYT (characteristically) misrepresents the environmental situation in Lebanon & might discourage the overactive Lebanese evironmentalists. There has been a significant reforestation of the place. (Thread)   Permalink 10:25 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Fat Tailed Random Matrices (TECHNICAL INCERTO, Vol 1)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:28 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@psi_theta “Wittgenstein’s ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler’s reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler.” — @nntaleb An unreliable/dumb source gives more information about itself than the information it forwards. Permalink 4:01 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@CCavafy C.P. Cavafy, “According to the Formulas of Ancient Greco–Syrian Magicians”, translated by @DMendelsohn1960 #poetry #Greece Permalink 3:50 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A point that this ignorant Matti Ilmanen @milmanen didn’t get. Permalink 5:32 PM – 27 Jul 2018

@RonPaul Come see Nassim Nicholas Taleb and many other GREAT speakers at my Institute for Peace and Prosperity’s “Media & War” conference on August 18th in Washington, DC! More info and tickets:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:29 PM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This said, I also insisted on the role of priors in (some) medical decisions to manage false positives/negatives. Permalink 9:48 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Found a Tesla supercharger on Boston-NY near artisanal burger rstrnt (keto-friendly) that serves espresso. Nice break for twitter fights with Bayesianistas. Permalink 9:39 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@cdipaola62 I think Taleb actually said, “F—k Bayes.” Which made a lot more sense to me than some of the equations…glad he was there to interpret for me. Permalink 9:20 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The idea behing “Bayesian” approaches is that if 2 pple have different priors, they will eventually converge to the same estimation, via updating. A “wrong” prior is therefore OK. Under fat tails, if you have the wrong prior, you never get there. (Taleb & Pilpel, 2004) Gabish?   Permalink 9:16 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@kavehdaneshvar Not every day you get so much complexity in one place! @nntaleb #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:41 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@djpardis Risk, fat tails, and precaution workshop at #ICCS2018 “Longevity comes from a volatile heartbeat” —@nntaleb Permalink 6:01 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@nntaleb His gadness ⁦@GadSaad⁩ in the workshop. Permalink 4:13 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Alexander the Great makes @realDonaldTrump look like Mother Teresa.” Permalink 1:16 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik Free advice: the lunch crowd has decided that the next @black_swan_man comic should have incompetent supervillain @R_Thaler who tries to nudge @nntaleb into trouble @normonics Permalink 9:40 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik Nonlinearity in travel time, like @nntaleb said in Antifragile #ICCS2018 Permalink 8:06 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@HardeepSPuri Also took time out to meet my friend, the famous author of several critically acclaimed bestsellers @nntaleb I have always enjoyed our intellectually stimulating discussions. This one was after a long time & first since I became a Minister. (3/3) Permalink 4:28 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@PZalloua Discussing Levantine genetics, and the spread of the Semitic language with L. Lazaridis, D. Reich and NN Taleb over a Mediterranean meal! @nntaleb @iosif_lazaridis Permalink 7:02 PM – 25 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Almost there…   Permalink 7:35 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@LetsWorkHappy Learning more about fat tails from @nntaleb at #ICCS2018 Permalink 7:12 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@mZargham .@nntaleb — tearing apart ‘scientific’ concepts built based on empirically invalid mathematical assumptions. starting over with more realistic mathematical assumptions to derive new principles. #ICCS2018 justifying my decisions to favor product based dynamic decision policies! Permalink 6:50 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@RhysLindmark 3/1 @nntaleb begins his talk with this overview: “What happens when you look at risk *dynamically* not *statically*?” #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:39 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@DTFinegood .@nntaleb “p values are not scientific”. #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:28 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@nntaleb With @GadSaad @MichaelSagnerMD @normonics @HarryDCrane #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:06 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@EdmondAwad Twitter coming to real life at #ICCS18 @nntaleb @GadSaad @MichaelSagnerMD @normonics @HarryDCrane Permalink 6:05 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD with the crew @nntaleb @PZalloua @trishankkarthik in Boston Permalink 6:04 PM – 24 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Respect for the firefighters and #PrayForGreece Permalink 7:06 AM – 24 Jul 2018

@Ekaitzsaies Hi @GuruAnaerobic ! Mr @urtatses and I had our first meeting this afternoon to start organizing a meet-up in the Basque Country to talk about @nntaleb ‘s ideas this November. Classroom Barbells First 2 speakers (him & I) Are you joining us? Anyone else? Permalink 11:22 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends, for the paperback edition, we are looking for comments on Skin in the Game from people with Skin in the Game (not reviewers), that is actually users. If you have a comment, please give us your first name and city of residence. Thanks! Permalink 9:15 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@nntaleb With @GadSaad and @PZalloua at #ICCS2018 Permalink 7:42 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@MimeticValue #ExistentialRisk #EffectiveAltruism #TemporalEmpathy Permalink 3:22 PM – 22 Jul 2018

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