Tag Archives: Lindy

Intelligence , Charlatans, IQ, Meditation, HYPERTENSION, Lindy, NYT, globalist/localist, Macron, Micron | Twitter

@nntaleb 19- A general problem w/social “scientists” & IQ idiots: they can intuit the very terms they are using. Verbalism; they have a skin-deep statistical education & can’t translate something as trivial as “correlation” or “explained variance” into meaning, esp. under nonlinearities. pic.twitter.com/4fUQuRvf1c Permalink 6:19 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@normonics It is clearly a point of identity for many. Exposing this and other fragilities as early and decisively as possible is the major project of those interested in an Antifragile world. https://twitter.com/ahsandeliri/status/1077483995057680384   Permalink 6:02 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb John, refreshing to have a physicist. The rule of thumb: if a metric explains less than 1- x% of the variance, it is not a metric. In physics the x can be as low as 10^14. In engineering, often <10^5. In psychology often >75% of the variations come from variance. Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@AhsanDeliri It seems IQ is a special sacred cow. The minute @nntaleb decided to really investigate what it is, how it’s measured, what it implies, what it leaves out, how it’s implications are inflated, all the knives came out. Permalink 12:39 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #happyholidays #safetynet pic.twitter.com/AhrXI0MPZ7 Permalink 3:24 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Peterson I said psycho”metrics is about a nonlinear pseudometric that shows mostly how dumb someone is. Try another question & make it “intelligent”. Permalink 3:15 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@BDSixsmith According to Lebanese festive traditions, Nassim St Nicholas Taleb visits your house at midnight, eats the bowl of squid ink pasta that you left for him and leaves free weights and copies of Montaigne’s Essays for your children. pic.twitter.com/YAGRhg8r6e Permalink 1:58 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Utterly confused. The Peninsulars hate Turkey even more than they hate Infidels. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1077296606809079808   Permalink 12:27 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 18- (continuing graph). So far none of the IQ-psycholophasters seem to grasp that local correlation is never correlation is the commonly understood sense. So when they say “IQ works well between 70 and 130” it means: “IQ works well between 0 and ~85, maybe”. pic.twitter.com/IAkkDP9hBm Permalink 11:44 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “So it appears that the church founders really wanted Christ to have skin in the game; he did actually suffer on the cross, sacrifice himself, and experience death.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #MerryChristmas #books #quote #Christ pic.twitter.com/MGa2UrYIR5 Permalink 8:53 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Merry Christmas my friends! pic.twitter.com/xCCQxbGJuT Permalink 7:21 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 17- A graph that shows the synthesis of my opinion on IQ and the “reseasrch” results about it. pic.twitter.com/xZZFn4xNJB Permalink 6:21 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 16- So Far: “IQ” isn’t a measure of “intelligence” but “unintelligence”; it loses its precision as you move away from 70 (left tail). Where it’s most hyped (*some* jobs) it predicts ~15- 63% of the time, ~10% if you demassage data. It it were a physical test, wd be rejected. Permalink 4:56 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@TricksterDoesIt Taleb, I’m not sure I accept your stated correlation. Many of these studies have massaged the data. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4557354/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/v08eLsktTI”>  pic.twitter.com/v08eLsktTI Permalink 9:04 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb (hint). pic.twitter.com/ml3X1xkKFf Permalink 8:48 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 15-” IQ” is most predictive of performance in military training, w/correlation~.5, (which is circular since hiring isn’t random). QUIZ: translate the correlation into percentage of the time IQ provides a correct answer there. Permalink 7:46 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 14- Any measure of “intelligence” w/o convexity is sterile. https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility   Permalink 1:59 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 13- For a measure to be a measure it needs to be: + UNIQUE + MONOTONIC or, at least + TRANSITIVE Hence IQ is not a measure, but something for psycholophasters to BS about. Permalink 12:02 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 12- If someone came up w/a NUMERICAL “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or oth physical qty, you ‘d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it & it will become an official measure. That’s what happened to “IQ”. Permalink 11:40 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 11- A robust use of “IQ” is for low scores for special needs pple. But then practically ANY measure would work to detect problem & improvement. Or no measure: just a conversation #Lindy. But then psycholophasters are using it like cholesterol, transferring from tails to body. Permalink 11:16 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 10- #SkininTheGame shows that the only robust measure of “rationality” & “intelligence” is survival, avoidance of ruin/left tail/absorbing barrier, (ergodicity). Nothing that does not account for ability to survive counts as a measure of “intelligence”– just philosophaster BS. Permalink 10:39 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@JSuchJ Interested in the ideas and books written by Nassim Taleb @nntaleb ? In this long podcast we discuss them (in Spanish) with @TorrasLuis (another RWRI alumni), @_PabloMB, @ValueInvestingS and @The_Godas https://www.academiadeinversion.com/nassim-taleb-luis-torras-juan-such-pablo-martinez-bernal-value-investing-fm/   Permalink 10:35 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 9- It is PRECISELY as a quant that I doubt “IQ”. I’ve spent 34 years working w/”High IQ” quants. I’ve rarely seen them survive, not blow up on tail events. Those high IQ who have survived like @financequant /Renaissance happen to be yuuugely street smart https://twitter.com/TellYourSonThis/status/1076866246270828544   Permalink 8:53 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 8- IQ is an academic-contrived notion. And the problem is that in academia there is no difference between academia and the real world; in the real world there is. Which explains why @primalpoly (while an honest resesrcher) can’t see where we are coming from. Permalink 8:38 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Perhaps the worst problem with IQ is that it seem to selects for people who don’t like to say “there is no answer, don’t waste time, find something else”. Remember the 1998 blowups. Permalink 8:19 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@DrBeauHightower Ever been to a Mensa meeting? Bunch of old dudes wearing sandals and socks that spend their time playing board games and chastising the world for chasing material goals. Nihilism plus backgammon. Permalink 8:17 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- If you take a Popperian-Hayekian view on intelligence, then you would realize that to measure it you would need to know the SKILLS needed in the ecology, which is again a fallacy of intellectual hubris. David Sloan Wilson joined the debate. https://twitter.com/David_S_Wilson/status/1076869012250918912   Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@iwangulenko Seems like Taleb only cares about stuff that matters IN THE REAL WORLD Permalink 7:56 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5- If you renamed IQ , from “Intelligent Quotient” to FQ “Functionary Quotient” or SQ “Salaryperson Quotient”, then some of the stuff will be true. It measures best the ability to be a good slave. IYIs want to build a top-down world where IYIs have the edge. Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb If many millionaires have IQs around100, & 58 y.o. back office clercs at Goldman Sachs or elsewhere an IQ of 155 (true example), clearly the measurement is less informative than claimed. https://twitter.com/gorucker/status/1076847699100606464   Permalink 6:48 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Look at the hordes with “high IQ” (from measurement) who are failures in real world rather than the ~50% correlation between IQ and success in 1) salaried employment, 2) jobs that select for edjukashion. Yuuge survivorship bias. 37 out of 38 PhDs in finance blew up in 1998! Permalink 6:40 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom/academic problems. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation. Some people can only focus on problems that are REAL, not fictional textbook ones. pic.twitter.com/Cs8LlNPgEO Permalink 6:25 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb “IQ” THREAD “IQ” measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs. 1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on “WHY is he asking me that?”, which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John) Permalink 6:22 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@librairiefrance RT @hugowiz: “Ce serait plus simple, d’un point de vue théologique, si Dieu était Dieu et Jésus un homme comme n’importe quel autre prophète, ansi que l’islam le voit, ou que le judaïsme voit Abraham.” Jouer sa peau @nntaleb @BellesLettresEd #JoyeuxNoel pic.twitter.com/UTg9ECZdqR Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Psychologists teaching you abt “intelligence” is like choirboys teaching you racketeering, turtles teaching you flying, or nuns teaching you how to rob a bank. Remember they live off charitable contributions or, worse, state support. #Skininthegame Permalink 12:33 PM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb OK, having played cop with @davidgraeber now I can safely support him in *some* of his missions. Permalink 12:13 PM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Year in Review (cont) Correspondence with Maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath : mathematics and humor. Maestro, Rest in Peace. https://twitter.com/search?q=%20%40cuttheknotmath%20%40nntaleb&src=typd   Permalink 10:55 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Year in Review (cont) The passing of @CutTheKnotMath: every Saturday morning I feel his absence, as my routine was to solve one of his puzzles. He was generous, patient, & committed to mathematics done right. We’ll finish his “Probability Riddles” book. @SvetlanaBogom13 Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb @StuartJRitchie Permalink 9:14 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Lesson 1 : Never attack someone publicly unless you know what they know about your work. (Asymmetry) Lesson 2: Never mess with nonpsychologists/real people if you are just a psychologist. Fellow @stuartjrichie didn’t see that I am basing mistakes from HIS own book on IQ . https://twitter.com/StuartJRitchie/status/1076473626189357058   Permalink 8:54 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@ShehabiFares The so called “Syrian revolution” in one picture..! pic.twitter.com/7z6JbpsBYL Permalink 7:54 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Takes correlation of existing pple in profession w/IQ (even assuming no bias & stats were replicable). Now take a cohort of “high IQ” pple and correlation with a category called “failure”. What does it show? pic.twitter.com/Xv6P1gcSDg Permalink 6:53 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The real non-datamined (i.e. w/potential cherrypicking) IQ study is the Terman study. Shows “geniuses” fare no better (or only slightly better, there was a debate) than socioeconomic peers. Epi-style studies in Medicine are now rejected (85% don’t replicate). Only cohort. Permalink 5:25 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@normonics There is a deep satisfaction in exposing shills — you are fighting for the common good. And it is effective. For instance, our bottom up exposure of @kevinfolta led to the point where even other shills have disassociated from him — no one is buying his toxic lies any longer https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1076288473051656192   Permalink 5:01 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@iwangulenko Did you know, a jump from 1 meter makes your legs stronger, a jump from 100 meters kills you. A nation of 8m is NO THE SAME as a nation of 300m. SCALE MATTERS. You can not scale communism (small scale, family), hard to copy Swissness AT SCALE/maybe impossible. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/dinapomeranz/status/1076059083856322560   Permalink 4:51 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams US Institute of “Peace” – pushes war, as it always has. We are forced to pay millions for a war-making “peace” institute. Orwell shits on us. https://twitter.com/USIP/status/1076315137185906688   Permalink 10:08 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Make sure you 1) spread the list or, better, 2) help expose shills For instance this effort helped us get @henryimiller who wrote fake scientific articles & smear scientists in Forbes & @ProSyn lose his job there & at the @HooverInst For the sake of trust in science! https://twitter.com/USRightToKnow/status/1076272623078854656   Permalink 5:29 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb LINDY: we get the following: Survival rate improves past a stage: once you’ve survived long enough, time works for you even if not power law. This comes straight out of an absorbing barrier model. Note that absorbing barrier is necessary since death/survival are discrete events pic.twitter.com/1kRK6Btt3t Permalink 12:44 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@Aaragorn004 as @nntaleb said surgeons shouldn’t look like surgeons! https://twitter.com/mathematicsprof/status/1075776839530930181   Permalink 9:36 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1076131927919345665   Permalink 9:19 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb So the Persians celebrate #Yalda night while the Levant celebrate sol invictus the predecessor of Christmas at about the same time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sol_Invictus   یلدا مبارک https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1076140113007206401   Permalink 7:48 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- Year in Review (cont) Monsanto is no longer. Bayer that bought Monsanto lost >$40 billion in cap. The idea that GMO = “science” & Glyphosate = “safe” is going bust as no longer propped up by the propaganda machine. With the death of Monsanto, victory for science. pic.twitter.com/HxqVFuKXCr Permalink 7:05 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6) An aspect of the @davidgraeber affair: is partaking of a lynch mob (in the form of approach in thread) morally acceptable, meaning it is only bad if one is the initiator? This is the classical problem of diffusion of responsibility: is is OK if OTHERS are doing it too? Permalink 6:37 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@EdmondShami Man, the way @nntaleb cracks down on academics is one of the most awesome things ever haha pic.twitter.com/9MLFhhLxul Permalink 4:30 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Most problems in the world are perpetuated by bureaucrats (ignorant of complex systems) with no #skininthegame “trying to help”. Put the State Department on sabbatical & see how peace will organically erupt. Also the past was more peaceful than claimed. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 4:07 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I can easily understand that someone can hate Donald Trump. But hating Trump more than loving peace is not a morally defensible position. Permalink 3:30 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@trishankkarthik “Abstinence much easier than moderation.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:25 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@phl43 I’d pay to see the faces of antiwar leftists in the 1970’s if they were told that 40 years later the Left, including many of their older selves, would be lamenting the resignation of a warmongering general. https://twitter.com/elianayjohnson/status/1075892750808158208   Permalink 3:45 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “Meditation is a way to be narcissistic without hurting anyone” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Trump ends illegal war in Syria. Trump may end 17 year losing battle in Afghanistan. Mattis: You’re not defending America. Well boo hoo hoo, Mattis. This is what America voted for. https://twitter.com/Elizabeth_McLau/status/1075881565216010246   Permalink 3:02 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@Ian56789 “Zuckerberg Must Resign”: Facebook Lets Corporations Read, Delete Your Messages https://theantimedia.com/facebook-let-corporations-read-delete-messages/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Hq9iuKXGTS”>  pic.twitter.com/Hq9iuKXGTS Permalink 12:43 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Year in Review (cont) 4- Published 7 papers in journals mostly single author, main one is https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   on speed of Law of Large Numbers 5- Figured out to avoid seed oil, called “healthy”. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6pwzeuQZBu”>  pic.twitter.com/6pwzeuQZBu Permalink 10:51 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@normonics These fucking people are sick Book a plane ticket and go fight ISIS yourself https://twitter.com/davidafrench/status/1075595073734230021   Permalink 9:49 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- My take on the Curse of Dimensionality. We’ve known about it for >30 years yet some idiotic geneticists keep doing multi-genes studies (especially the GMO types). People in computer science are vastly more aware. Also see “computational irreducibility” by Wolfram. pic.twitter.com/i6LDLri6Pb Permalink 8:11 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Here’s the guy who actually took a trip to Syria with McCain and Lindsey Graham and successfully pushed for the US to ARM TERRORISTS to overthrow the Syrian government. If I were Little Marco I would STHU about Syria because blood of thousands is on his hands. https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1075465661923631109   Permalink 8:03 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- Attempts by some to identify “intelligence genes” reveals statistical incompetence: for monogenic traits/mutations we can identify genes, for > there is a CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY meaning we need a yuuuuge sample of >10^30 people to have an idea about multivariate properties. Permalink 7:57 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5- The problem with “liberals” tagging to someone an identity/race/category to minoritify is that it makes race salient so you end up particularizing the general. Humans have zillions of dimensions & it gets absorbed into a category. Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4- Aside from LLN, idiots make claims abt the distribution of maxima from individuals. As I wrote in TBS, if all terrorists were Sunni Salafis, only ~ 0.0001 of Sunni Salafis are terrorists meaning you are wasting statistical time discriminating ag single individuals. Permalink 6:53 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My forth book in March (Vol 1, Techn Incerto) shows how little mechanistic statisticians undertand the law of large numbers (LLN). Some claims can only be made for large aggregates. The LLN requires muuuuuuuch more than they think. https://twitter.com/pirpirikos/status/1075762047269273600   Permalink 6:43 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1075762184892887041   Permalink 6:38 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@BrankoMilan For a change Trump does something reasonable: reduce killings by withdrawing US forces (at least he says so) from Syria and “internationalist rule-based liberals” attack him because they want….a war. Permalink 6:32 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nitingoyal An amazing thread on stats and how statistical ignorance leads to over medication. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1074283575288033280   Permalink 6:29 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- What people don’t get about “race” ≠ or “heritability” of traits: even it these were true & not fabrications, they wd be dominated by IDIOSYNCRATIC differences. If pple from Mars had an “IQ” lower than earth by 5%, w/variance you wouldn’t see it in ANY 2-paired individuals. Permalink 6:22 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5) @davidgraeber might not have been at the initiation of the lynch mob, just an active promoter of it (which, ethically, makes no difference). Permalink 5:47 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@unherd @nntaleb’s 2013 demolition of false certainties is the perfect book to re-read in an era of noise and confusion, writes @peterfranklin_ https://unherd.com/2018/12/why-antifragile-is-the-perfect-read-for-todays-turmoil/   Permalink 5:30 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4) and there is a meta-vagueness; @davidgraeber then accuses those who debunk him like @QuilletteM as belonging to “alt-right” Permalink 5:25 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The approach for rounding up an academic lynch mob used by @davidgraeber 1) vageness of accusation 2) the accusation, while vague, has an association with a precise sinister past (appeal to emotion) 3) wording leaves no possibility for scientific/critical scrutiny Permalink 5:13 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@MonaresTI I also had the privilege of being a student at the #RWRI. I learned a lot about statistics in real life. A doctor must ensure the safety of the least ill patient and never take away an opportunity to the one that is most in danger. SKIN IN THE GAME Permalink 4:37 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Important to remember: 1) guidelines for bloodpressure change frequently. More than 83 million adults would be recommended for high blood pressuretreatment under the new (2018) system compared to 72 million under the prior recommendations. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1074283575288033280   Permalink 2:50 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@golchhaJ Came across the French word ‘glander’ / ‘glandouiller’ through @nntaleb : “It means “to idle”, though not “to be in a state of idleness” (it is an active verb). Gandouiller denotes enjoyment. [It] is what children without soccer moms do when they are out of school.” Permalink 1:43 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/IlitbtgNWz Permalink 5:27 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- There is a category of bubblegumheads (say @jaketapper ) who not only overgeneralize but misgeneralize on top: say turning the pullout in Eastern Syria as a US vs Putin. Quite insulting for the citizens there with #skininthegame Permalink 2:04 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/l0nu2kQcIG Permalink 1:37 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There has been an epidemic of generalizing every tiny individual & particular conflict in life into something large & systemic, tied to “exploitation”, “race”, “gender”, “colonialism”, & ancestral “privilege”. Same pple view the world top-down & see benefits in centralization. Permalink 1:35 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition—given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Germany’s most important journal Der Spiegel says top journalist faked stories for years. @nntaleb https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/19/top-der-spiegel-journalist-resigns-over-fake-interviews?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Year in Review 2018 vs plan 1- Was more intransigeant 2- Went to Malta after yeaaaaars of trying 3- pic.twitter.com/2HGVscWm0S Permalink 7:22 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@Marcellenassif Sample of a Lebanese Christmas Eve ;) Featuring the FAMILY pic.twitter.com/k3sglqsfUL Permalink 6:17 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb When two “experts” diagree, consider the possibility at least one of them is not an expert. https://twitter.com/tarik_a/status/1075387357224992768   Permalink 5:51 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My definition: 1- Something is locally Antifragile with respect to a variable x (that is in a range, for x ∊ [L, H]) if and only if it has a locally convex response to such variable (i.e. f(x+∆x)+f(x-∆x)> 2 f(x) for all x ∊ [L, H]). [GAMMA APPROACH] 2- [VEGA APPROACH] Permalink 4:48 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile, thank you Twitter @jack for protecting us from “state actors” from Saudi Arabia trying to dig information about us. In my case Saudi Arabia can easily get information about me, they don’t need hackers. This was sent yesterday to pple targeted by the “state actors”. pic.twitter.com/08v2Xr3MmG Permalink 2:58 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb “Saudi Arabia Is Going Bankrupt” Taleb Exclaims After Seeing Kingdom’s Latest Budget | Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-18/saudi-arabia-going-bankrupt-taleb-exclaims-after-seeing-kingdoms-latest-budget   Permalink 5:21 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@Barnes_Law In depth technical analysis explains how Silver’s forecasts “feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis” applying double standards to measuring his on modeling. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 4:07 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Arabia is going to go bankrupt. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1075065883792470017   Permalink 2:07 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@ole_b_peters Let’s never think of utility as a currency. Currency conversion is linear, whereas the whole point of utility is its non-linearity. If we think utility is a currency, i.e. linear, we’ll miss its reference-point dependence and start believing in prospect theory. Permalink 7:41 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@Lipsie What FRACTAL LOCALISM looks like in the realm of vegetables. Tweet sponsored by @nntaleb & @VeggiesAreNoIdiots pic.twitter.com/nycm7s6Sae Permalink 6:28 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb LOCALISM & SCALABILITY Compare: Greek Cyprus to Greece (in spite of the former’s yuuuge problems since 1974) Singapore to China (and or Malaysia) Dubai to what is called “Saudi” Arabia Switzerland to Germany Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “Gli amministratori sono una maledizione da sempre – in ogni angolo del pianeta, in qualsiasi business o attività e in tutte le epoche storiche.” Rischiare grosso @nntaleb @ilSaggiatoreEd #libro #citazione #business pic.twitter.com/dyg2e2wIL6 Permalink 4:28 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My side of the story clearly presented. As the saying goes, an ounce of algebra clears a ton of BS, even when the BS comes from someone with >3 million twitter followers. https://twitter.com/isaacfab00/status/1074721180660056064   Permalink 7:13 PM – 17 Dec 2018

@isaacfab00 My attempt to demystify the @nntaleb vs @NateSilver538 twitter war. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 9:41 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The Nation-State is an agricultural concept made by a ruler to control & better own his peasants. It is highly inimical to the Mediterranean mind. The Polis is a more adapted unit. Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony “It takes 1,000 IQ points to out wit an aggressive tinkerer” -@nntaleb Rule of thumb (#Heurstic) never trust someone who has a weird obsession with “IQ”. They’re a sucker, someone who tinks (slowly) they understand the world but dont… https://twitter.com/StefanMolyneux/status/1074219829798699008   Permalink 5:44 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb III- The US was created to be bottom up, with the Federal Gov taking a residue of spending. But when pple spend (abstract) money that is not theirs, a disproportionate amount of fat grows, & we now have yuuuge money spent on nonsense. Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb II- From the idea that communism works only on a small scale (if it ever works)=> Taxation, as in Switzerland should be bottom up. You pay in proportion to where you can SEE the money spent. 1st to the commune; Commune pays the leftover to the county, county to … to federation Permalink 3:51 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Great thread illuminating the FRACTAL LOCALISM project. 1) Communism works on a very small scale. 2) But the flip is that it has only worked with a community that is highly homogeneous (originating from Eastern Europe) and monstrously sub-ethnocentric. https://twitter.com/KaiGehring1/status/1074586553215840256   Permalink 3:13 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@Extrachelle Retweeting this again bcz it’s my favourite 2018 tweet so far. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1073197627745992704   Permalink 1:59 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “… il promotore più attendibile di un prodotto è il cliente.” Rischiare grosso di @nntaleb ed. @ilSaggiatoreEd Come puoi vedere, ho acquistato il libro ;-) (11 ottobre 2018) pic.twitter.com/IOWVOzWC21 Permalink 11:57 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/n4qXhvj3gi Permalink 7:01 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I view both globalists and nationalists as the same crap: a reduction in dimensionality, a destruction of the variegated intermediate fractal layers between individual and humanity. Both aim at monoculture. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1042047309478014976   Permalink 3:32 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb As you lower \mu you can see the Lindy zone and the nonlindy area. Collapse is crossing the orange line. X axis is years. pic.twitter.com/NuoM61GvMe Permalink 3:07 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Localism is NOT nationalism. https://twitter.com/laurentozon/status/1074254016488574977   Permalink 1:37 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Lindy https://twitter.com/otrasenda_AC/status/1074386673696456704   Permalink 1:31 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Harry is a doctor and a RWRI alumni. https://twitter.com/HarryhongHong/status/1074321136761036800   Permalink 7:19 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon Live Love #Jounieh! Joy to the world By @joe.sokhn #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/oKEVwo2kUz Permalink 7:17 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@kimberlitepipe1 “English ‘manners’ were imposed on the middle class as a way of domesticating them, along with instilling in them the fear of breaking rules and violating social norms.” @nntaleb It took me 30+ yrs to realize this and make a change. Still difficult at times, woof woof woof. Permalink 6:51 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Ancestral architecture: no Euclidian geometry, high dimensionality. Even pyramids when close show rich micro-patters (Met in NYC). Today’s architecture is “smooth”, Eucledian, & of low dimensionality. I am most comfortable in a forest, a cave, or a Gaudi bldg. pic.twitter.com/fCTy4H8I7N Permalink 5:49 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Doctors are statistically naive & their statisticians are imbeciles; they have a hard time understanding non-linear dose-response so they binarize. And pharma takes them for a ride by bucketting numbers (mildly ill + very ill produces an illusion of risk for mildly ill). pic.twitter.com/1ZRZnUCJNx Permalink 5:17 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb HYPERTENSION In #Antifragile: Pharma needs to medicate the mildly “sick” (hypertensive) as 1) these live long 2) >100 more midly “sick” ppl than very sick, so more profitable to “cure” the healthy Pharma reclassifies the “sick” to get clients. But relation HBP-risk is nonlinear! pic.twitter.com/1x0X9oIzxu Permalink 4:42 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@ektrit As Taleb @nntaleb says, Modern Architects design to impress other Modern Architects. https://twitter.com/archpng/status/1074254067860471808   Permalink 4:21 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@laurentozon L’arnaque c’est de confondre localisme et protectionnisme national. Lorsque vous êtes à Nice vous êtes plus proche de Gêne que de Brest, Saint-Jean-de-Luz ou Lille. MLP est centralisatrice et sa gestion du RN le démontre depuis des années. https://twitter.com/mlp_officiel/status/1066981705129623552   Permalink 2:44 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon That’s how the sun rises in #Beirut! Good morning everyone! Have a nice Sunday By @mahdifad #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/Z5Z1ICPiZC Permalink 11:25 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony Being dumb and #Antifragile has worked out pretty well for me… https://twitter.com/bintsouria/status/1073984901114937346   Permalink 2:53 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Lindy is not a powerlaw but surely has local such behavior for first say 2000-10000 years. Good enough for me. A yuuge result. pic.twitter.com/2dLkdwW2Cl Permalink 1:30 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is not ART you can optionally observe in a gallery, but places and neighborhoods WE live in. We have skin in the game and the architect doesn’t. Permalink 5:29 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There is an additional problem with architects and modernity: reduction in the fractal dimensions of our world. https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52   Permalink 4:37 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The problem is architects building structures to impress other architects –but plumbers don’t act on impressing other plumbers. Any activity where agents impress peers (architects, academia) rather than satisfying the needs constituents ends up rotting. #SkininTheGame https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1073918095645908992   Permalink 4:32 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb New mathematics for the Lindy Effect, expressed as absorbing barrier (extinction barrier). This is the INTUITION of the method. Yuuuge results once we use Girsanov to include drift, or switch to geometric Brownian motion. #Lindy @financequant pic.twitter.com/OXMrClJMS5 Permalink 4:28 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Classical mistake by historians and philologists treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence. (Lond discussion in #TheBlackSwan) https://twitter.com/Jorrit_Kelder/status/1073548679859048448   Permalink 3:28 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb M4 is a SYSTEMATIC test of machine learning techniques, not some cherry picked concoction in an “evidence based” “data science” paper. There is NO other systematic test of predictability than @spyrosmakrid’s “M” competitions. On to M5. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1073897208834113537   Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb (Journalistic) noise is to signal what a cancer cell is to a healthy one. Permalink 3:08 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@NECSI It is the degree of opacity and uncertainty in a system, as well as asymmetry in effect, rather than specific model predictions, that should drive the precautionary measures. Push a complex system too far and it will not come back. pic.twitter.com/KTPDM6uaBR Permalink 12:45 PM – 14 Dec 2018

@john_f_hamer “It takes a lot of skills to be virtuous without being boring.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 6:58 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am plagiarizing @HarryDCrane for my own course next spring, particularly the last sections on Antifragile. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1073079657212321792   Permalink 5:58 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The main point from the M4 competition is not that traditional stats > machine learning, but that BOTH have a horrible record; we cannot use forecasting for any RISKY exposure. Hence a protocol for precaution in specific domains. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1072502840407527425   Permalink 5:17 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I wrote 4 Op- Eds in the NYT so this is not a matter of access. I just despise them. Permalink 5:00 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb What we calls different conservatism is militarism. Kristop has the intellectual rigor and clarity of thought of a poorly boiled cauliflower. https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1073538845671604225   Permalink 4:53 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Remember that the NYT, while promoting platitudinous & vague notions such as “integrity”, “truth”, etc. was behind the Iraq war, regime change, and other monstrosities. The NYT is a cover for warmongers & managed to convert the pseudo-left to militarism. Permalink 3:55 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/TalebQuotes/status/1073485426105577472   Permalink 3:47 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb When someone announces, self-referentially, “I have integrity and virtue”, look for the fraud. If NYT wanted to show *virtue* they shd say: “We take RISK for the Truth, even if uncomfortable to us & causes us to be ostracized by the MONOCULTURE/Weapon makers” No virtue w/o Risk pic.twitter.com/TWXqk68NJl Permalink 3:38 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Science is about observables; decisions, risk, life, profits and wisdom are about unobservables. Permalink 3:32 PM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Correction: Feb 11-15 Permalink 9:10 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@DrMichaelBonner Ousia, hypostasis, prosopon, etc. are often used interchangeably, and cannot be translated sensibly into other languages. Permalink 8:46 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My piece on the Lebanese language. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 7:21 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Cancelled my subscription to @LOrientLeJour, not bec they refused to publish my skeptical article on language, but for the INCOHERENCE of their management who claimed to be “balanced” by only publishing Arabists. MTV has no trouble w/the argument. https://www.facebook.com/adamadamo.fun/videos/vb.1532186683714370/742671102768879/?type=2&theater   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/x2kqK7VXy0″>  pic.twitter.com/x2kqK7VXy0 Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4) For a nationalist others are like “nonelephant animals”. For a localist others are cousins; some are brothers. Permalink 4:56 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3) Both nationalism & abstract universalism cause blowups. Kantian Universalism is flawed: It you treat all children equally for Christmas, you will neglect your own. Just as you are obligated to give preference to your children, others are obligated to do so with their own… Permalink 4:54 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2) The danger of Nationalism is an absorption of values: lives of others don’t count: Both H & W Bush counted only U.S. soldiers. For Salafis, lives of infidels don’t count. For a localist everyone counts, but your obligation to family members is greater. Permalink 4:51 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb NATIONALISM: there is an individual, then nation, little above. Causes Wars: outside lives don’t exist. FRACTAL LOCALISM: individual ⊂ various tribes (family, friends…) ⊂ tribes ⊂ … Humanity. NEVER exclusive: One (me) can ⊂ Greek & Lebanese tribes+US +Mediterraneism. Permalink 4:47 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@Apocalypticaly @nntaleb might find this to be funny. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1073182406390079488   Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb We are opening scholarships for RWRI (Real World Risk Institute) Feb 10-14 2019 in NYC http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 12:45 PM – 12 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The saying that it takes much more energy to displace than install falsehood is itself a falsehood 1) Sticky “falsehoods” are beneficial or useful for survival (placebo, superstition) 2) Falsehood can only persist if #Lindy 3) Nonhelpful falsehoods tend to collapse very quicky Permalink 11:45 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture pic.twitter.com/prTzKd2MwM Permalink 9:07 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@moshejoshua For anyone who has read @nntaleb already knows, this statement to be the harbinger and start of the end. pic.twitter.com/GqrXYZWTX0 Permalink 4:39 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Let me be clear about intolerance against intolerance. The rule is that People (say Salafis) whose platform is EXPLICITLY denying democracy (or free speech) should not use democracy (or free speech) to reach political power. Permalink 1:46 PM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Nightmare! Someone citing me in EXACTLY opposite of the meaning: Being “intolerant against intolerance” does NOT mean tagging people as fascist or somethinist SO you can muzzle them. @davidgraeber’s tactic is tagging people w/o due process, witches to be hunted. https://twitter.com/kellydanc/status/1072576042030764034   Permalink 1:39 PM – 11 Dec 2018

@Stefano_Peron And conclusion: when u have heavy tails and low signal noise ratio, convexity and layering exposition is better then forecast!@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1072547892576116737   Permalink 10:03 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb With ⁦Isabella and @Stefano_Peron⁩, RWRI alumni who came from Italy (Treviso) to attend the ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ M4 Conference. pic.twitter.com/VhR103kc8w Permalink 9:45 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The NKS by @stephen_wolfram is #Lindy Thoughts by “scientists” like Dyson who dismissed it (without reading it) aren’t Lindy. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1072521638745391107   Permalink 8:54 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Econometrics has been a total disaster. pic.twitter.com/Bf8AAPksRb Permalink 6:53 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Spyros ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ : the most accurate machine learning method is worse than the worst standard “statistical” one. pic.twitter.com/oo3stEBoTy Permalink 6:46 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Where @davidgraeber is slowly learning that if you use a lynch mob against someone (under argument using freedom of expression), someone may turn a lynch mob against you (under same freedom of expression). #symmetry https://twitter.com/davidgraeber/status/1072210837283225600   Permalink 3:54 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can’t predict business success, but you can predict business failure: someone who writes lengthy and frequent emails. Permalink 3:03 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I confirm. Harry’s undergrad class >>> so-called social scientists. https://twitter.com/harrydcrane/status/1072266082210201604   Permalink 3:53 PM – 10 Dec 2018

@polemitis “I have been wrong about most things most of my life…tell me something I don’t know… the key is to have a convex distribution to returns when I am right vs I am wrong” – @nntaleb #m4conference @Uni_of_Nicosia @nyutandon Permalink 7:25 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Scott Armstrong is 81. I will remember to scrutinize what he eats at lunch/dinner. pic.twitter.com/nuEvfbwW1j Permalink 6:35 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am supposed to be an unpleasant. https://twitter.com/batteryhorse/status/1072134680563122176   Permalink 6:32 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “If you do not take risks for your opinion, you are nothing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@LBMaronites R.I.P to the great Lebanese poet Maurice Awad. He devoted his life to modernizing poetry in the Lebanese language & even translated the Bible to the Lebanese language. He was nominated to a Nobel Prize in 2015. A true treasure from our country! pic.twitter.com/QeGaJMmMYt Permalink 1:36 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@tonyblaitz And why did France spearhead the war against Ghaddafi in Libya? Why is France solidly behind Paul Biya and Cameroon in their quest to exterminate the people of the English-Speaking Southern Cameroon? Permalink 12:05 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb President Micron, You don’t want other countries to interfere in the affairs of France And/or sypport the #YellowVestProtests rebels. Why did France support the jihadi headcutters in Syria? Please explain, President Micron. Permalink 6:14 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Not good https://twitter.com/karenattiah/status/1071474783978700800   Permalink 5:53 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Latest by @PZalloua of the Lebanon-East Med Population Genetics Project. Ancient DNA of Phoenician remains indicates discontinuity in the settlement history of Ibiza http://disq.us/t/397a0bd   Permalink 2:35 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@NonMeek Here’s a tailored comic strip for your upcoming M4 -lecture in NY. This ought to capture the gist of it [intensity > frequency]. #fattails pic.twitter.com/HeKUQzoBxG Permalink 1:49 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@NicolasTabardel You seem to still be using the left/right paradigm, when the debate has shifted to another dimension (globalist/localist). Permalink 12:21 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Χρόνια Πολλά ! https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/1071358737607200768   Permalink 4:11 PM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Yellow vests. Some surprisingly excellent demands: – Banning Lobbies (8) – Smaller Banks (5) – Banning MONOCULTURE, GMOs, Glyphosate (20) – Anti Foreign Interventionism (22) – Pol. Diversity of Media (15) – Frexit (9) Some questionable ones (3, 2) . #GiletsJaunes #YellowVests pic.twitter.com/Jjwy16xpWK Permalink 3:11 PM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Fractal Localism https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1070994836705239041   @digvijoy_c Permalink 5:43 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony Ending the poll earlier because more answers can come in, but only suckers wait for answers. Future Taleb had the most votes but Big Ron is the winner. pic.twitter.com/ERFL0S8Nrs Permalink 5:19 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Political Clarity under Complexity, & fractal localism. pic.twitter.com/5VPUTVrqaS Permalink 4:39 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb This is a CENTRAL result: you don’t get peace forcing pple to hold hands & sing Kumbaya by the campfire. You get peace via fractal LOCALISM. The usual idiotic AUB-style pseudoleft in Lebanon call “sectarian”(pejorative) anyone who believes in such Swiss-style localism. https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/890007166991482881   Permalink 4:21 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb For about two decades, journos, like vultures, have been showing up whenever someone (even when patently lunatic) claims finding a “flaw” in my work. Maybe I shd use a fake account and start posting these. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/brianga11agher/status/1063542512114171904   Permalink 4:03 PM – 7 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Rex Tillerson was not a neocon. @SecPompeo is a neocon. And a liar. Case closed on the president. He’s not teachable. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1071132880368132096   Permalink 12:26 PM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An intuitive way to see the BS by @PTetlock who doesn’t get the notion of forecasting shd be in payoff space except in very narrow domains. pic.twitter.com/kPeCKYjK3n Permalink 11:55 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@catoletters Meet the Crony Senators Who Took Saudi Money | The American Conservative https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/meet-the-senators-who-took-saudi-money/   via @amconmag Permalink 10:22 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why Macron was doomed the minute he gave an inch to the yellow vests. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/947496509926453251   Permalink 9:39 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The fancy 5 volume INCERTO set to come out in 2019. https://www.amazon.com/Incerto-Deluxe-Randomness-Procrustes-Antifragile/dp/198481981X/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1544196473&sr=8-2&keywords=incerto   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/xWtMBGC8gZ”>  pic.twitter.com/xWtMBGC8gZ Permalink 7:30 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@spyrosmakrid My talk at the M4 Forecasting Conference http://www.mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy   elaborates on the two major challenges facing the field (see below), in addition to discussing “The findings of the M4 Competition and their implications and how the participating methods can be applied”. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/64UODewnPa”>  pic.twitter.com/64UODewnPa Permalink 4:32 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Current bibles: The Bible, Wealth of Nations, Das Kapital, Works by Aquinas, Montaigne, etc. They fail editorial criteria. Editors don’t understand books, Academics don’t get scholarship. Why? @rorysutherland : employees’ objective is minimizing blame in case of failure. Permalink 3:05 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- How to make a survey work by via negativa. To assess if a book will survive, find an academic/someone who plays the system. If they say “well organized”, “well written”, or “original”, odds are the book flops. If they say “messy”, “whimsical”, the book will outlive him/her. Permalink 2:26 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Ignore surveys. Pple think they prefer restaurants 1) quiet so they can tawk, 2) roomy, 3) no line. Yet they flock to 1) loud, 2) cramped restaurants 3) w/50 min wait. Never ask pple what they want, watch what they do. Revelation of preferences. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 2:05 AM – 7 Dec 2018

Lindy, Globalism, Nikki Haley, Stiglitz, Pinker, Bitcoin, Futures, Daou, COVFEFE, Olives – Twitter

@Spfannenschmidt Nassim Taleb eyeing an IYI @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/planetepics/status/941767377540263936   Permalink 3:36 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule in action!https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/941798620159909888   Permalink 3:27 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine Lebanese philology du jour: I want to suggest (based on folk etymology) that the Lebanese “tofshiita” (a bunch of malarkey) has its origins in the Aramaic ܦܫܝܛܬܐ/פשיטה for “simple,” whence the Peshitta 4 gospels come. Thoughts @nntaleb @turlevnon?? Permalink 3:20 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@financequant Globalism fosters points of centralized power which can (seemingly) “optimize” their outputs, creating conditions which work well when they work but which fail catastrophically when they don’t. Optimized systems, in a narrow sense, do not fail gracefully. 1/2https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/941637040235597824   Permalink 9:45 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The 8 different meanings of BR in Aramaic, 2) (and more) pic.twitter.com/va9VrqlmBY Permalink 7:58 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The 8 different meanings of BR in Aramaic, 1) pic.twitter.com/ewdEneUthF Permalink 7:57 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Never met a classicist who understands 1) Semitic philology 2) that times has an arrow that flows in one direction 3) that genetics like paternity tests >> oral history 4) that East-Med (Greek, Anatolian, Armenian & Canaanite) genetics are similar Permalink 7:00 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DUJOUR: Bar-ra in Leb (=outside) from B-ra (Aramaic) actually Akkadian. Barbar-Ru dog (outside wolf). Quest: any connection to βάρβαρος (i.e. outsider ) rather than onomatopeia for incomprehensible sounds? Hint: initially applied to Semitic-speaking Maltese.https://twitter.com/cooleiform/status/941578574666125312   Permalink 6:49 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Yes, expected. pic.twitter.com/nWaL4JECw9 Permalink 6:02 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lindy is closing.https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf   Permalink 5:59 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lindy is not “Lindy” (i.e., prone to the Lindy effect).https://twitter.com/mimisheraton/status/941668302597906433   Permalink 5:58 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb People have the illusion that “globalism” is good for commerce. It is mainly good for commerce by large crony corporations, creating fragility & winner-take-all effects. Permalink 3:52 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A “bubble” becomes a bubble when you run out nonbankrupt people calling it a bubble. Permalink 3:52 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Nikki Haley is a shameless, flagrant, uninformed, clueless, low-IQ BS vendor. We need her out of the UN. Saudi Barbaria has been killing THOUSANDS of Yemeni civilians. Yemen has killed NO Saudi Civilians.https://twitter.com/nikkihaley/status/941405858407305217   Permalink 3:31 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The sad part is that it is true. As demonstrated, a “Nobel” in economics correlates with negative knowledge.https://twitter.com/bopercival/status/941441694951546880   Permalink 3:06 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@JamesMarsh79 Robert Taft was firmly against @R_Thaler and #sunstein pic.twitter.com/UepCX6C3t3 Permalink 11:18 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath To continue the odyssey #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/p8WmwnAF3U Permalink 10:23 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For 10 seconds, I was scared: I thought I wrote the article. That solution is sooooooooo simple. pic.twitter.com/Tkg0xVqH6i Permalink 7:36 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I have not seen anybody provide an argument for why Joseph Stiglitz is socially useful.https://twitter.com/business/status/940577170182696960   Permalink 2:28 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@AStratelates Reminder. pic.twitter.com/G3VlHAQmYo Permalink 8:30 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Deriving the distribution of Bitcoin assuming Log Returns Student-T as specified by @financequant . (There is no PDF for corresponding Stable Dist. For Cauchy set alpha=1) pic.twitter.com/X3ipzfMf6M Permalink 3:04 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb In other words, IYI Pinker @sapinker promotes an article by journo @mark_lynas making pro-GMO “scientific”, when there is NO SINGLE tail risk analysis for GMOs & no single study on consumers, & nothing that’s not Monsanto cooked. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 2:34 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Pinker is clueless about anything that has a 2nd order effect. In other words, about practically everything.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/940978015147823104   Permalink 9:37 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The right link http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  https://twitter.com/greenrupertread/status/940927860499460096   Permalink 9:21 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@phl43 The Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/cd2ac073-a6c7-330b-ba9d-af858ccd4bb3  ) just gave a lesson on how to write a headline that is both intentionally misleading and strictly speaking true. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/OyJshigjxb”>  pic.twitter.com/OyJshigjxb Permalink 7:58 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Comment “sent” la traduction? pic.twitter.com/lci7BqRfmY Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a big quotient #FigureThat #math #probability This is step one towards a harder problem pic.twitter.com/zcu8smEFBe Permalink 5:47 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am fighting for the rest of the world, particularly the US, to have the fractal, bottom-up properties & the governance of CHF.https://twitter.com/iwangulenko/status/940917836083539968   Permalink 4:17 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Antifragility for CHF is because they used to benefit from turmoil elsewhere –and will hopefully do so in the future. My model country.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/940884210801348608   Permalink 3:43 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Bitcoin seems to fit a Stable Distr, cannot rule out Cauchy! (Collaboration w/ @financequant ) Note that this makes practically any price level possible: whether 100K or 100. pic.twitter.com/IuFxv6D8wO Permalink 3:34 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb My Christmas Class party at NYU Tandon for my fat tails class. pic.twitter.com/E8N9ejGAac Permalink 4:35 PM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Chers amis, quelle est la traduction francaise la plus claire de “bullshit”? (c’est pour mon livre) Permalink 11:02 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@trueThorLund When @nntaleb writes abt taxi driver brother free to have own opinion, I imagine this…https://twitter.com/fredrubinogtfoh/status/940450630904287232   Permalink 10:09 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Is that idiot is representative of a new generation of investors who don’t get that one can make claims about volatility & tails without committing to a direction?https://twitter.com/filip_martinka/status/940510638023069696   Permalink 7:07 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Is it 1) stupid people become financial journalists or 2) financial journalism makes people stupid?https://twitter.com/Williamw1/status/940252203805233153   Permalink 8:13 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb J2 Haplogroup, of course. Permalink 7:36 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Announcement by my Calabrez teachers: Antonio’s is open on Sunday Dec 24. Traduzione: Antonio’s abarberia aperto Domeni(c)ga diciembre 24. pic.twitter.com/5Olht0Syqd Permalink 6:35 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Confusezeus The reaction to Trump’s declaration of #Jerusalem as a capital of Israel is more a reaction against #Trump himself than against the declaration. Here are three former presidents saying the same thing with no fuss to follow.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jg-bxpZWj3I&sns=fb   Permalink 5:57 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Dorin Marghidanu’s Permuted Inequality https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/PermutedInequality.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0K4xZGGvSb”>  pic.twitter.com/0K4xZGGvSb Permalink 5:05 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Shorting a future creates an unbounded liability: you are responsible for all your personal assets. Unlike futures, options have natural sellers: covered calls (hence spreadable into synthetic puts), & they should have been introduced AT THE SAME TIME as the future. Permalink 4:35 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Yarimatahari @RBReich note @nntaleb call for decentralization as a tool against corporate lobbyists https://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-commentary/34273/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Q43LeFZN3N”>  pic.twitter.com/Q43LeFZN3N Permalink 4:29 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The fellow @harrynwilson is actually owning that their headline is a clickbait that doesn’t match the content –treated as fine print. In other words, what charlatans do.https://twitter.com/harrynwilson/status/940181571914657795   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@mikeandallie The most interesting piece of math I learned in 2017 was thanks to @octonion and @nntaleb -> the COVFEFE problem: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/12/11/the-most-interesting-piece-of-math-i-learned-in-2017-the-covfefe-problem/   #math #mathchat Permalink 2:53 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@ido87 @nntaleb Had to smile when I saw this. Antifragility and the development of urban water infrastructure:http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07900627.2017.1369866?journalCode=cijw20   Permalink 1:36 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@John07331405 How India Economic Times reported this tweet: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/shorting-bitcoin-a-challenge-prices-likely-to-top-100000-nassim-nicholas-taleb/articleshow/62019468.cms   Apparently you think it’s LIKELY bitcoin will hit $100k. Permalink 1:12 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Cernovich Schiff was source of the fake CNN story and they have the guy on the very next day. Very Fake Jake!https://twitter.com/repadamschiff/status/939891387130105856   Permalink 3:16 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Note that Bitcoin has a limited number of natural sellers. The entire concept is very concave supply (it costs more and more to extract). The number of producers shrinks with time. Permalink 3:03 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb As usual, fake news. “Properly” is key. Fools “can” short.https://twitter.com/ardavanh/status/939981596865699840   Permalink 2:36 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This form of entrepreneurship [flipping companies] is the equivalent of bringing great looking and marketable children to this world with the sole aim to sell them at age 4. pic.twitter.com/e1mkYsq2Cv Permalink 12:52 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A heuristic for happiness/contentment/good disposition: You are not upset to hear that someone you know has been owning bitcoin since 2011. Permalink 8:51 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@MaxAbrahms So, it turns out the pundits were wrong about Assad and the Islamic State as I’ve been saying forever.http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-abrahms-glaser-isis-assad-20171210-story.html   Permalink 6:09 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Very big point. Futures that don’t have deliverables require a very, very deep market. Otherwise someone long the future can push prices higher at settlement time with impunity, by “locking” profits (never having to resell a deliverable).https://twitter.com/MittCapital/status/939851175435931648   Permalink 5:41 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Generalization of a problem by Maestro Alexander B @CutTheKnotMath (tex file https://www.dropbox.com/s/1m1raueam87sigj/GordianDec9-MarkovChain.tex?dl=0   ) ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uaL5aeuCfA”>  pic.twitter.com/uaL5aeuCfA Permalink 4:49 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We can ignore Daou (as he doesn’t have the basic reasoning abilities to know what a fallacy means); but here is a good puzzle: Daou a Lebanese word (meaning illumination), doesn’t exist in Syro-Aramaic. I cannot find an Ugaritic/Western Semitic root. pic.twitter.com/SMVBDdi3DW Permalink 4:05 PM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A Kafkaesque World. With the inquisition spirit & the criminalization of politics, you will soon wake up every morning with the question: “Which rule I didn’t know existed did I violate yesterday?” Permalink 2:24 PM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Bitcoin: my answer to the repeated questions. No, there is NO way to properly short the bitcoin “bubble”. Any strategy that doesn’t entail options is nonergodic (subjected to blowup). Just as one couldn’t rule out 5K, then 10K, one can’t rule out 100K. Gabish? Permalink 8:05 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Peter Daou, I exposed a major fallacy in your argument. You respond with two elementary fallacies. Will you respond next with four even more elementary fallacies? Permalink 6:34 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@jeorgen @nntaleb’s fundamental notion: We live in a non-linear world, or else it wouldn’t exist. pic.twitter.com/Ho9e5MiQg1 Permalink 6:22 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@GuruAnaerobic Think of sugar/carbohydrate as a ‘pollutant’. Both Zero-carbers and High-carbers miss this, as well as the difference between acute and chronic.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/939452355505946626   Permalink 3:41 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For those who do NOT understand nonlinearity of dose-response with respect to pollutants: pic.twitter.com/IdhptxbuZ3 Permalink 3:11 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Here, in 2017, we have to watch legal scholar @AlanDersh explain to one (very) intellectually challenged @peterdaou that legal expertise doesn’t equate with supporting Hillary. This is not 2017 BC. This is 2017 AD.https://twitter.com/AlanDersh/status/938774864542031873   Permalink 4:20 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Sorry, this is the one pic.twitter.com/Kr7nKls5Jr Permalink 3:24 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The COVFEFE solution with code. pic.twitter.com/VbtbflpEAh Permalink 3:07 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine The Aramaic lo ta`lan l-nesyuno (with the verb “alel” standing for “enter into” or “lead into”) means precisely “do not let us enter into” temptation: ולא תעלנא לנסיונאhttps://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/939109628847239168   Permalink 4:43 AM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb More details about precaution w/respect to climate. pic.twitter.com/kHEMyUV522 Permalink 9:50 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The author of the manual, Bernard Gui, is the villain in the Name of the Rose. He has a lot to teach the repressive autocratic pseudo-left. pic.twitter.com/5I555sBXfK Permalink 9:12 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb My French publisher has a time-tested manual for those who want to engage in the modern pseudo-leftist inquisition. pic.twitter.com/r7JtQgeiaO Permalink 8:26 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Tartare (Paris) “Jouer sa peau” is the new title. pic.twitter.com/VNs7qNDUTA Permalink 4:47 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@GeertNoels We have only one planet. Even a risk with a very low probability becomes unacceptable when it affects all of us Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/DxsEScu9oX Permalink 11:23 PM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lshaghlé lwa7idé lmfakkrin jéyé minl3arabé hiyye’l “al” (wl jam3 lmaksur). Tel3et Kin3aniyyé. Home run. Permalink 2:14 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb “Jouer sa Peau” “Risquer sa Peau” Permalink 2:12 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du jour: only supposedly “certain” import from Arabic “al” into Lebanese actually from later Canaanite: “hal”, a form still in use, or even “l”. So “l-bét/hal-bét” (the house) it is NOT “al-bayt” (Arabic) or “beyto/a”(Syriac/Aramaic), but EXACTLY Phoenician. pic.twitter.com/1aGLpzbf9P Permalink 12:52 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Les épreuves de mon livre. pic.twitter.com/Mv0uyYaGQh Permalink 12:19 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@byzantinepower Exceptionally erudite article by @DrMichaelBonner on the hybridity of the Classics (inc a war-cry for Aramaic) & a settlement of scores re: @nntaleb & @wmarybeard. A brilliant way to kick off the morning…https://www.academia.edu/35335526/Crisis_in_the_Classics   Permalink 12:08 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Someone in the classics understood me in my bone with Mary Beard! And yes, Aramaic is the West. https://www.academia.edu/35335526/Crisis_in_the_Classics?s=t   via @academia Permalink 1:35 PM – 5 Dec 2017

@elalterego01 @nntaleb . Look what is happening to the people you have uncoveredhttps://twitter.com/mercola/status/938081833765482496   Permalink 8:27 AM – 5 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Henry Corbin’s 4 volume treatise on Shiism. pic.twitter.com/KKpBdc4BX1 Permalink 2:55 AM – 5 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am now in the Beirut Armenian. Permalink 11:26 AM – 4 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Comparing Beirut(Aleppo) Armenian to Moscow Armenian pic.twitter.com/SOpcKvz2t9 Permalink 11:21 AM – 4 Dec 2017

@nntaleb People get The Minority Rule.https://twitter.com/Bagemin/status/937448013190090753   Permalink 3:05 PM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Tripes Phoenician-style with a Georges Brassens lookalike remote cousin (whose name is also Georges). pic.twitter.com/OzipiTS3ng Permalink 12:05 PM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Orthodox priest in Amioun blessing a meal at a luncheon party. pic.twitter.com/tr3N15QuFQ Permalink 3:18 AM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Respect.https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/936797826591293440   Permalink 2:06 PM – 2 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Expected time to COVFEFE: part of the exam at the Indian Statistical Institute. cc:@CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/jTpxan518r Permalink 11:09 AM – 2 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Between the Carybde of pseudo-empiricism and the Scylla of postmodernism.https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/936983969744089088   Permalink 10:33 AM – 2 Dec 2017

@primalpoly Are you for or against the @nntaleb poll about whether you’re for or against Twitter polls? Permalink 5:20 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We can see that somewhere between 1% and 65% of my Twitter followers don’t understand the Godel-Popper paradox, or meta-problem that is, that you can’t use electoral system to vote against democracy or that you can’t let Salafis vote in democratic societies. pic.twitter.com/ky6YKh4fqk Permalink 5:09 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Thread opens a BS detection prog: take claim”Arabic/Islamic science INVENTED x”, debunk & show historian misappropriates stuff by Persians/Chaldeans/GrecoPhoenicians/Syriacs. I’ve discussed in ThBlackSwan the lack of evidential rigor among historians. (& note funding by KSA)https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/936573372779106304   Permalink 3:16 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Four hours left to vote, particularly for those against twitter polls.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/936388948338860036   Permalink 11:49 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability with Factorials https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/ProbabilityWithFactorials.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/tQZRZC9tun”>  pic.twitter.com/tQZRZC9tun Permalink 11:13 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mediterranean vodka. pic.twitter.com/qbuGVqfuQG Permalink 9:33 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The reason crusaders used fat is because olive oil cultivation was not widespread and local to narrow Med strips. Northern Europeans were not representative of Western civilization. They still aren’t fully so. Permalink 7:09 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Fafinski, it is simple. There were between 60-180 Arab tribes. Banu Ghassan was one of them. Can you generalize to Arabs? More significant, do you know how few the Ghassanids were then? I can’t make you rigorous, I can just prevent you from bullshitting on Twitter. Permalink 6:57 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@EatTheDormouse Prof. Mulder, crediting Arab/Islamic society with ancient Mediterranean or Persian practices is saying we owe the cultivation of maize to American settlers. Highly insulting and anachronistic Permalink 6:34 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The claim by Prof Mulder is even weirder that the word for “soap” in Classical Arabic صابون comes from the Greek σαπούνι (Latin sapo). Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The claim by Prof Mulder is even weirder that the word for “soap” in Classical Arabic صابون comes from the Greek σαπούνι (Latin sapo). Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Here is the distribution of olives. A Mediterranean thing. The Western cultivation came mostly later. Twitter is not a good place for confabulatory and anachronistic statements. pic.twitter.com/GEKMI2S9jK Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb and Byzantines are now Islamic? Permalink 5:44 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb You made a false claim and are now justifying it with …colonialism? Your bogus definition of Islamic covers pre-Islamic cultures, including Jews. Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We are discussing an INVENTION after the 7th Century, so please, please, no anachronism. You are a historian. Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb To call this an “invention” of the Islamic world one needs evidence it did not predate the Arab invasion of the Levant. Permalink 4:39 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This comes is from a Levantine practice of annointing with oil (Messiach from “wipe”). And do not confuse “shemen” in Aramaic (oil) w/Samen (fat). cc:@stephenniem Permalink 4:38 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This is likely to be wrong. Arabs had no olives. This may be a pre-Islamic Syriac tradition. The usual “appropriation” by Arabs of Persian, Chaldean and Levantine sciences.https://twitter.com/stephenniem/status/936364734235934722   Permalink 4:31 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2nd version (first was 2015). Permalink 3:54 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The expected P-Value Hacking derivations. Fooled by Randomness. pic.twitter.com/ikpaK8u7Nj Permalink 3:53 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Philology du Jour: Historically Lebanon refers to the White Mountain, not the coastal cities, collectively called Phoenicia up to Byzantine times. Permalink 2:17 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Snow slowly covering The White Mountain above Northern Phoenicia. pic.twitter.com/8NWeh1H4zE Permalink 2:13 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Are you for or against Twitter polls? Permalink 4:18 PM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The median academic paper is read by ~ 2 pple. Some economists like Stiglitz have 10^5 citations with negative contribution to society (advice on FNMA/Venzuela is worse than silence). Same with econometrics. Do the math. Permalink 12:24 PM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Not quite the same origins. Levantine is inherited from much older languages than Arabic. I did a statistical analysis of words. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/QHgwHF902s”>  pic.twitter.com/QHgwHF902s Permalink 9:17 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) For instance one may invoke justice and equality to completely open borders between Eu & Africa (or US & Mexico) & call anyone who disagree “racist”. The definition of freedom is more robust. Permalink 6:05 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) freedom of speech is a robust definition, scale invariant, and rigid across time and situations. Justice and other concepts are relative and vary with time, place, and scale. Permalink 5:53 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb As much as I fight Shermer’s bad empiricism & pseudo-rationalism, I support him in his endeavor to promote freedom of expression as the pivotal element of intellectual life.https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/936034793317220353   Permalink 5:35 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb It all starts with writing in the vernacular. And the understanding that the “Arabs” in Algeria are predominantly of Beber origin. Permalink 4:23 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Algeria will probably be the first Arab League “Member” to de-Arabize, renew with its West-Med historical roots. https://algeriepart.com/2017/11/29/conflits-regionaux-lalgerie-dit-non-a-larabie-saoudite/   via @Algérie Part Permalink 1:08 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@_skininthegame Met Nassim “No-BS” Taleb at Kusturica concert in Moscow. Partying with the Russians. Thanks for everything @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/MVzY2lDagg Permalink 7:37 PM – 29 Nov 2017

Lindy, Noah Smith, Sufis, Trump, Greenwald, Pinker, France, Tversky | Twitter

@CCavafy We the Alexandrians, the Antiochians, the Selefkians, the countless other Greeks of Egypt & Syria, & those in Media, Persia, & all the rest. Permalink 5:23 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The smell of mathematical inequality on Sunday evening. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/pKbrczGMII Permalink 5:05 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Other elementary thing *Former Belgian PM* doesn’t get is Pax Americana in W. Europe, Pax Russiana in E. Not his EU ShmEU bureaucratoBS Permalink 4:46 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For those who can’t see it, here is the link between fat tails and weightliftinghttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d#.qoo5lopoe   Permalink 8:07 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb He came to take my risk/probability class, and look what happened.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/833339540630822913   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The point is that you NEVER NEVER gauge wars by FREQUENCY but by INTENSITY. Kapish? Permalink 5:03 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb What I mean by Lindy: she and only she is the real expert.https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.l8mhx964p   Permalink 4:24 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The Lindy effect is Lindy compatible. “Use laws that are old & food that is fresh”. Thanks Constantine @ctheofilopoulos pic.twitter.com/q1Lg5MVK4m Permalink 4:15 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The beauty of mathematical visualization early in the morning @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/nkf7gs9qQB Permalink 2:50 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The hundred years war killed between 2K and 22K per year. Kapish? @surfnm Permalink 2:28 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb This former PM of Belgium doesn’t get that this is, simply, wrong. “Wars” used to be small squirmishes. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1505.04722.pdf  https://twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/832877334260768770   Permalink 2:06 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Anyone who reads Noah Smith has a problem http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   @DominikLeusder @Noahpinion Permalink 5:36 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I was expecting that Trump would reset the tax code, foreign relations, etc. But I never expected that he would reset the media. Permalink 5:28 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Particularizing from the general; vastly worse @Debradelai Permalink 1:34 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) For Salafis, Islam is immutable law, incompatible w/state. For Sufis, it is ~spirituality, compatible with secular state. @DalrympleWill Permalink 10:05 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Sufis are the future. Unfortunately 1 generation of Saudi Money in Turkey, Syria, etc. eradicated them. Luckily surviving in Central Asia.https://twitter.com/DalrympleWill/status/833004673749626880   Permalink 9:48 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Imbeciles think in words! A universal principle that holds AT ALL SCALES is rigorous. Think before tweeting. @IvarsNeiders @mikeharrisNY Permalink 8:00 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) Humanities academics are rejects w/no common sense substituting thinking w/universal slogans, destroying student’s discernment, reasoning Permalink 7:15 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) Love of humanity doesn’t force you to open your living room to ALL passers by. But you may invite a few. Complex systems are stratified. Permalink 7:02 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Education & intellectualization make people think in Universal terms for local problems, with no awareness of Scalability. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 6:32 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb At starbucks drinking “ethical water”.https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/832639141720551424   Permalink 8:01 PM – 17 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb “We love imperfection, the right kind of imperfection”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) pic.twitter.com/mOxAgid9lJ Permalink 1:48 PM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friday squid ink and mathematics with @a_lesniewski pic.twitter.com/pb181J3xD7 Permalink 10:23 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For Math lovers, #FF Follow Friday: @CutTheKnotMath who makes you work very hard. pic.twitter.com/m0ANxGxwq1 Permalink 8:52 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I watched the press conference. Trump played the press like a violin. Calling this “Meltdown” proves that Huff Post is low-IQ propaganda.https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/832334242843615232   Permalink 5:25 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The unnoticed fact revealed in the press conference: The @realDonaldTrump is heavily lawyered & has lawyered up even more post-Flynn. Permalink 4:49 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@AssalehAmer heuristic: when @nntaleb describe something to be bullshit the odds are overwhelmingly it’s bullshithttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/832257892900282369   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “People reveal much more about themselves while lying than when they tell the truth.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) pic.twitter.com/C8vkkOMqVO Permalink 1:02 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I blocked Louise Mensch for 1) mental incapacity/instability, 2) playing cheap games of sensationalism. @morningj @LouiseMensch @ABarnardNYT Permalink 12:25 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Journos & other idiots are confused as hell by the Donald Trump; don’t get that he may be the *only* recent leader who never had a boss. Permalink 10:52 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) And Saying let’s not fight terrorism because past incidence is low is like saying let’s remove pilots since planes don’t crash @foxjust Permalink 7:28 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Here is the difference between terrorism & falls from ladders seen from Extreme Value Theory @foxjusthttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 6:36 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nice reference to my work @foxjust but Fishhoff NEVER made the distinction Thin/Fat tails, used Extreme Value Theory, mixes tails & variancehttps://twitter.com/BV/status/832201138082574336   Permalink 6:25 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Maybe I should attend the class and make random arguments about what the aphorism meant.https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/832066353167212544   Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) pic.twitter.com/mrs4mDYWR8 Permalink 5:36 PM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb …imitating the choice of the most overweight male at the table…https://twitter.com/SlimScribbles/status/832000324327976961   Permalink 3:08 PM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb True left (Greenwald) is vastly more rigorous than pseudo-left (NYT, Monsantoistic journos). You can agree or at least disagree with them.https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/831838190541631488   Permalink 4:57 AM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling is the information age’s rediscovery of simony . Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “If you want strangers to help you, smile. For those close to you, cry.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) Permalink 12:45 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb pseudo-left pseudo-intellectual pseudo-lib pseudo-science pseudo-feminism pseudo-Dionysius the Aeropagite.https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/831594603950272517   Permalink 12:25 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mystery of why past planned cities worked: Alexandria, Antioch, Constantinople (semi-planned), Kairaouan, Fustat/Cairo. Where they planned?https://twitter.com/JohnDCook/status/831592910319677440   Permalink 12:18 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule and asymmetry of demand!https://twitter.com/careygillam/status/831550005274148864   Permalink 9:20 AM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Naive empiricism, terrorism & Ebola. Please don’t read the NYT. https://youtu.be/9dKiLclupUM   via @YouTube Permalink 8:42 AM – 14 Feb 2017

@mns yo @nytimes @nytopinion @NickKristof your thinking is faulty, cc @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/UDN5wfuHvB Permalink 11:57 PM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We think alike. From Silent Risk (this was 2014) http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html   @ProbFact ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Z5EuNrH90Y”>  pic.twitter.com/Z5EuNrH90Y Permalink 10:28 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Knows how to handle the difference between evidence of absence and absence of evidence within probability theory.https://twitter.com/gmax1mum/status/831169908440338432   Permalink 8:01 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Interesting story but it doesn’t seem to show in the DNA. They must have converted to Islam. Hitti, Salibi, etc. were fiction writers.https://twitter.com/ByzantineLegacy/status/831012601052135424   Permalink 3:44 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb in 2016, Obama accepted ~11000 Sunni refugees and ~72 Christians frm Syria. Mr @ali_w_ali I am blocking you next to avoid twitter pollution. Permalink 9:06 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Please vote on this tweet (twitter polls don’t allow pictures). Thanks Permalink 8:50 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nigel is spot on. True refugees are *persecuted* minorities, the ones Obama blocked (he accepted 20x more Sunnis in relation to ratios.)https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/830820042736562176   Permalink 8:47 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friends, question for our Fat Tails book with @DrCirillo. Which graph is nicer, top or bottom? pic.twitter.com/wpbWTP6u1B Permalink 7:41 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb This book represents FooledbyRandomness & bullshit vending at its best: Pinker boy misrepresents/did not even understand his OWN data.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/829745377431674880   Permalink 6:59 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Genetics is a dream for bullshitphobic historians. Looks like Phoenicians & Assyrians (not Babylonians) were “Indo-Europeans”. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/ddwyWy1NlC Permalink 5:10 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Now, you have to choose between 2 competing chief executives. Which one should you pick? The one who looks “professional”? Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Baal invented sushi so people can pay a lot of money for a meal without gaining weight. Permalink 5:07 PM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You have to choose between 2 surgeons in a hospital. Which one should you pick? The one who *looks like* a surgeon or the other? @jamessaft Permalink 12:45 PM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Economist hit a point: when you compare them in effectiveness to stamp collectors, philatelists get angry.https://twitter.com/punkphilatelist/status/830412558779588608   Permalink 5:54 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @HalSinger after so much economics you need to relearn elementary properties of binary relations, such as symmetry many toddlers know. pic.twitter.com/IL9RvuZ2zY Permalink 4:09 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @HalSinger, if someone who has “apocalyptic worldview” likes my book, does it make it apocalyptic? If a prisoners reads my book… #IYI Permalink 3:55 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink and Pugliese wine to rest after REWRI 4 pic.twitter.com/qxRQZkhkDJ Permalink 5:44 PM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Is this true? How do we compute iatrogenics?https://twitter.com/piktograf_mrlol/status/830207020498354176   Permalink 4:23 PM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb REWRI Day 5: “All markets are illiquid when you really, really need them”. Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@KS1729 @nntaleb thought of you when I saw this. complexity of the world vs successive generations of “risk management” pic.twitter.com/bwnySwnN4D Permalink 10:29 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3 instructors at the same time.https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/829731053300486144   Permalink 10:23 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Managing the economy without economists is like managing a war without stamp collectors.https://twitter.com/CNBCTopStories/status/830067141525204992   Permalink 10:21 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb .@poetmorgan1 Expressing yourself in words doesn’t mean you thought “in words”. Kapish? And stop tweeting for Baal’s sake. Permalink 9:40 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb BTW I never say that mathematicians think in “numbers” but in axioms, objects, and inequalities: pic.twitter.com/ov57yBnS4v Permalink 4:33 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) Hence low risks of violence/ unrest. In spite of academics barkings, risk of fighting is much lower under Trump than it was under Obama.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/829669736560599044   Permalink 5:01 AM – 9 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1)Cond. Prob. Conditional on having voted Trump, odds of owning gun is, say 30%. Conditional on owning a gun, odds of voting Trump is >90% Permalink 4:34 AM – 9 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Indeed.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/829517127979823104   Permalink 6:42 PM – 8 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Real World Risk-4, 50 pple: 1) 8 weightlifters (max DL 470), 2) 6 pple who returned, 3) 4 Italians, 4) 1 Canadian and …. 5) no vegetarianhttps://twitter.com/DyedraJust/status/828755748586938368   Permalink 12:55 PM – 8 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Never expected that Antifragile would end up being influential in the White House. But I hoped for it.http://politi.co/2jUtPVp   Permalink 8:37 AM – 8 Feb 2017

@ScottAdamsSays Everything Taleb says is smarter than whatever you were thinking on your own. Especially if you are a word-thinker.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/829028834578202624   Permalink 11:31 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb “There’s A Global Riot Against Pseudo-Experts” Nassim Taleb Exclaims “This Is Not About Fascism” | Zero Hedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-07/not-fascism-nassim-taleb-warns-theres-global-riot-against-psuedo-experts   Permalink 10:07 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Which is why I never read and after a mistake never write for @prosynhttps://twitter.com/stan_yurin/status/828947314014302208   Permalink 5:06 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb There is currently a global reaction against the pseudo-expert. Who is the real expert? Lindy.https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.ks4e2m2bj   Permalink 2:35 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness *precedes* Drunkards walk @investomedico . Kapish?https://twitter.com/investormedico/status/828591148696473600   Permalink 5:13 AM – 6 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I systematically decline invitations to conf. discussing “populism” as if it were some type of pathology. Mere term “populism” misframes pic.twitter.com/IGzbnorPDu Permalink 7:51 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb By indiscriminately attacking Trump, even when he does the right thing, the pseudoleft is elevating him & self-destructing. #Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/StephensWSJ/status/828047211762155520   Permalink 3:44 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Remember.https://twitter.com/alphamelville/status/738640536521867264   Permalink 1:52 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb One of my yet unfulfilled predictions is to see the true left fight the pseudo-left over Trump’s foreign policy.https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/828052045701722113   Permalink 6:21 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Syriacs are high J2 and very little J1, meaning Northern Mesopotamians had no intermixing w/Semites. Only language. @zaliin @PZalloua Permalink 6:11 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@BBassem7 This is an amazing exchange. Very courageous of Trump. #FoxNews pic.twitter.com/f0ulhYwoj0 Permalink 6:09 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb If an American entrepreneur is stupid enough to relocate to France, good news. It would improve the average of both counties.https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/827958432955260937   Permalink 11:27 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Greek mytho has Europa from Tyre to Crete, Arcadia frm Ugaritic pple (Arwada). Bible has Canaan son of Ham not Shem. @wunderbearer @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/pxL0YH6sOm Permalink 10:52 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) In other words the claims by Jews that they are different tribe from Cannaanites even if lang same appears true. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1) Looks like the notion “Canaanites as Semites” is bogus empirically. Both Torah & Greek mythology say they aren’t. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb More interestingly, the probability of Koura people being of Arab origin is less than 1 in 1,000,000 @PZalloua Permalink 9:42 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Distribution of Genes of Greek-Orthodox in Koura (Amioun) appears *identical* to Greek Islands/Crete @PZalloua Confirms Byzantine theory pic.twitter.com/SmvKRBCfp5 Permalink 9:29 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Artificial stupidity comes w/ overriding the Lindy-compatible in favor of some bias invented by some ignorant nerd like @r_thaler Permalink 8:57 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A. Tversky once said he didn’t care about *artificial intelligence*,he studied *natural stupidity*. I prefer to study *artificial stupidy*. Permalink 8:26 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1)Historical Intrigue du jour: Phoenicians & Assyrians likely not of “Semitic” ancestry, yet spoke Semitic lang. @PZalloua will have more. pic.twitter.com/Igw0rq9BtT Permalink 5:18 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@BBassem7 #Saudi tweep refers to the terrorist that attacked the Louvre as a “hero” Saudis are not covered by the Trump’s ban. pic.twitter.com/Em28c4M0OY Permalink 2:45 PM – 3 Feb 2017

@normonics Demonstrating the IYI allergy to discontinuities. Tiny changes often beget qualitative shift.https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/826840804660436993   Permalink 9:30 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Actually, they would call it… “the left”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/827503519305519104   Permalink 5:30 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I wonder what the Enlightenment people would call a “Left” that’s authoritarian, repressive, disciplinarian, & despotically normative. Permalink 5:06 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb . @arbedout Before tweeting, think in 2nd order of why I made such statement. Check amazon, it’s #1. Permalink 4:57 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Milo’s book is the highest selling book in America, 2 month before pub! #Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/MarkEGreene/status/827491494068117504   Permalink 4:48 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1) Peace: Top or Bottom? Morrocan gov pro-Israel, but popul. hostile. Iran gov hostile, but not Iranians. Which peace is easier? Think Long Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/CDOCubed/status/827413609877757952   Permalink 3:07 AM – 3 Feb 2017

RATIONALITY IS SURVIVAL: Why belief in Santa Claus can be more rational than disbelief

RATIONALITY IS SURVIVAL: Why belief in Santa Claus can be more rational than disbelief; why we never know what is a priori rational.

Consider religious dietary laws. They may seem irrational to an observer who sees purpose in things and defines rationality in terms of what he can explain. Actually they will most certainly seem so. The Jewish Kashrut prescibes keeping four sets of dishes, two sinks, the avoidance of mixing meat with dairy products or merely letting the two be in contact with each other, in addition to interdicts on some animals: shrimp, pork, etc.

These laws might have had an \textit{ex ante} purpose. One can blame insalubrious behavior of pigs, exacerbated by the heat in the Levant (though heat in the Levant was not markedly different from that in pig-eating areas further West). But it remains that whatever the purpose, the Kashrut survived $\approx$ three millennia not because of its \textit{rationality} but because the populations that followed it survived. It brought cohesion: people who eat together hang together. Simply it aided those that survived because it is a convex heuristic (see our definition of convex heuristic in \ref{convheu}). Such group cohesion might be also responsible for trust in commercial transactions with remote members of the community. Simply, people who eat together hang together and dietary laws help in enforcing a group cohesion.

This adumbrates our central idea: that rationality is not what has conscious verbalistic explanatory factors; it only be what aids survival, avoids ruin. Rationality is risk management, period.

The consequence is that beliefs should not be judged on whether they are epistemologically true or false, but primarily in whether they allow survival [IN THE COLLECTIVE, and IN THE LINDY SENSE]. Belief in Santa Claus is therefore rational if it prevents people from dying and not rational if they cause extinction.

Take the idea to its logical conclusion. Superstitious-like resistance to matters like GMOs might be the instrument of enforcing such survival.


via RATIONALITY IS SURVIVAL: Why belief in Santa… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.