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Lindy, Noah Smith, Sufis, Trump, Greenwald, Pinker, France, Tversky | Twitter

@CCavafy We the Alexandrians, the Antiochians, the Selefkians, the countless other Greeks of Egypt & Syria, & those in Media, Persia, & all the rest. Permalink 5:23 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The smell of mathematical inequality on Sunday evening. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 5:05 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Other elementary thing *Former Belgian PM* doesn’t get is Pax Americana in W. Europe, Pax Russiana in E. Not his EU ShmEU bureaucratoBS Permalink 4:46 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For those who can’t see it, here is the link between fat tails and weightlifting   Permalink 8:07 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb He came to take my risk/probability class, and look what happened.   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The point is that you NEVER NEVER gauge wars by FREQUENCY but by INTENSITY. Kapish? Permalink 5:03 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb What I mean by Lindy: she and only she is the real expert.   Permalink 4:24 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The Lindy effect is Lindy compatible. “Use laws that are old & food that is fresh”. Thanks Constantine @ctheofilopoulos Permalink 4:15 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The beauty of mathematical visualization early in the morning @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 2:50 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The hundred years war killed between 2K and 22K per year. Kapish? @surfnm Permalink 2:28 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb This former PM of Belgium doesn’t get that this is, simply, wrong. “Wars” used to be small squirmishes.   Permalink 2:06 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Anyone who reads Noah Smith has a problem   @DominikLeusder @Noahpinion Permalink 5:36 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I was expecting that Trump would reset the tax code, foreign relations, etc. But I never expected that he would reset the media. Permalink 5:28 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Particularizing from the general; vastly worse @Debradelai Permalink 1:34 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) For Salafis, Islam is immutable law, incompatible w/state. For Sufis, it is ~spirituality, compatible with secular state. @DalrympleWill Permalink 10:05 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Sufis are the future. Unfortunately 1 generation of Saudi Money in Turkey, Syria, etc. eradicated them. Luckily surviving in Central Asia.   Permalink 9:48 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Imbeciles think in words! A universal principle that holds AT ALL SCALES is rigorous. Think before tweeting. @IvarsNeiders @mikeharrisNY Permalink 8:00 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) Humanities academics are rejects w/no common sense substituting thinking w/universal slogans, destroying student’s discernment, reasoning Permalink 7:15 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) Love of humanity doesn’t force you to open your living room to ALL passers by. But you may invite a few. Complex systems are stratified. Permalink 7:02 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Education & intellectualization make people think in Universal terms for local problems, with no awareness of Scalability. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 6:32 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb At starbucks drinking “ethical water”.   Permalink 8:01 PM – 17 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb “We love imperfection, the right kind of imperfection”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) Permalink 1:48 PM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friday squid ink and mathematics with @a_lesniewski Permalink 10:23 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For Math lovers, #FF Follow Friday: @CutTheKnotMath who makes you work very hard. Permalink 8:52 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I watched the press conference. Trump played the press like a violin. Calling this “Meltdown” proves that Huff Post is low-IQ propaganda.   Permalink 5:25 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The unnoticed fact revealed in the press conference: The @realDonaldTrump is heavily lawyered & has lawyered up even more post-Flynn. Permalink 4:49 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@AssalehAmer heuristic: when @nntaleb describe something to be bullshit the odds are overwhelmingly it’s bullshit   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “People reveal much more about themselves while lying than when they tell the truth.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) Permalink 1:02 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I blocked Louise Mensch for 1) mental incapacity/instability, 2) playing cheap games of sensationalism. @morningj @LouiseMensch @ABarnardNYT Permalink 12:25 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Journos & other idiots are confused as hell by the Donald Trump; don’t get that he may be the *only* recent leader who never had a boss. Permalink 10:52 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) And Saying let’s not fight terrorism because past incidence is low is like saying let’s remove pilots since planes don’t crash @foxjust Permalink 7:28 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Here is the difference between terrorism & falls from ladders seen from Extreme Value Theory @foxjust   Permalink 6:36 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nice reference to my work @foxjust but Fishhoff NEVER made the distinction Thin/Fat tails, used Extreme Value Theory, mixes tails & variance   Permalink 6:25 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Maybe I should attend the class and make random arguments about what the aphorism meant.   Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) Permalink 5:36 PM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb …imitating the choice of the most overweight male at the table…   Permalink 3:08 PM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb True left (Greenwald) is vastly more rigorous than pseudo-left (NYT, Monsantoistic journos). You can agree or at least disagree with them.   Permalink 4:57 AM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling is the information age’s rediscovery of simony . Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “If you want strangers to help you, smile. For those close to you, cry.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) Permalink 12:45 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb pseudo-left pseudo-intellectual pseudo-lib pseudo-science pseudo-feminism pseudo-Dionysius the Aeropagite.   Permalink 12:25 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mystery of why past planned cities worked: Alexandria, Antioch, Constantinople (semi-planned), Kairaouan, Fustat/Cairo. Where they planned?   Permalink 12:18 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule and asymmetry of demand!   Permalink 9:20 AM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Naive empiricism, terrorism & Ebola. Please don’t read the NYT.   via @YouTube Permalink 8:42 AM – 14 Feb 2017

@mns yo @nytimes @nytopinion @NickKristof your thinking is faulty, cc @nntaleb Permalink 11:57 PM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We think alike. From Silent Risk (this was 2014)   @ProbFact ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:28 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Knows how to handle the difference between evidence of absence and absence of evidence within probability theory.   Permalink 8:01 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Interesting story but it doesn’t seem to show in the DNA. They must have converted to Islam. Hitti, Salibi, etc. were fiction writers.   Permalink 3:44 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb in 2016, Obama accepted ~11000 Sunni refugees and ~72 Christians frm Syria. Mr @ali_w_ali I am blocking you next to avoid twitter pollution. Permalink 9:06 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Please vote on this tweet (twitter polls don’t allow pictures). Thanks Permalink 8:50 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nigel is spot on. True refugees are *persecuted* minorities, the ones Obama blocked (he accepted 20x more Sunnis in relation to ratios.)   Permalink 8:47 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friends, question for our Fat Tails book with @DrCirillo. Which graph is nicer, top or bottom? Permalink 7:41 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb This book represents FooledbyRandomness & bullshit vending at its best: Pinker boy misrepresents/did not even understand his OWN data.   Permalink 6:59 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Genetics is a dream for bullshitphobic historians. Looks like Phoenicians & Assyrians (not Babylonians) were “Indo-Europeans”. @PZalloua Permalink 5:10 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Now, you have to choose between 2 competing chief executives. Which one should you pick? The one who looks “professional”? Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Baal invented sushi so people can pay a lot of money for a meal without gaining weight. Permalink 5:07 PM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You have to choose between 2 surgeons in a hospital. Which one should you pick? The one who *looks like* a surgeon or the other? @jamessaft Permalink 12:45 PM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Economist hit a point: when you compare them in effectiveness to stamp collectors, philatelists get angry.   Permalink 5:54 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @HalSinger after so much economics you need to relearn elementary properties of binary relations, such as symmetry many toddlers know. Permalink 4:09 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @HalSinger, if someone who has “apocalyptic worldview” likes my book, does it make it apocalyptic? If a prisoners reads my book… #IYI Permalink 3:55 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink and Pugliese wine to rest after REWRI 4 Permalink 5:44 PM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Is this true? How do we compute iatrogenics?   Permalink 4:23 PM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb REWRI Day 5: “All markets are illiquid when you really, really need them”. Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@KS1729 @nntaleb thought of you when I saw this. complexity of the world vs successive generations of “risk management” Permalink 10:29 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3 instructors at the same time.   Permalink 10:23 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Managing the economy without economists is like managing a war without stamp collectors.   Permalink 10:21 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb .@poetmorgan1 Expressing yourself in words doesn’t mean you thought “in words”. Kapish? And stop tweeting for Baal’s sake. Permalink 9:40 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb BTW I never say that mathematicians think in “numbers” but in axioms, objects, and inequalities: Permalink 4:33 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) Hence low risks of violence/ unrest. In spite of academics barkings, risk of fighting is much lower under Trump than it was under Obama.   Permalink 5:01 AM – 9 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1)Cond. Prob. Conditional on having voted Trump, odds of owning gun is, say 30%. Conditional on owning a gun, odds of voting Trump is >90% Permalink 4:34 AM – 9 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Indeed.   Permalink 6:42 PM – 8 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Real World Risk-4, 50 pple: 1) 8 weightlifters (max DL 470), 2) 6 pple who returned, 3) 4 Italians, 4) 1 Canadian and …. 5) no vegetarian   Permalink 12:55 PM – 8 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Never expected that Antifragile would end up being influential in the White House. But I hoped for it.   Permalink 8:37 AM – 8 Feb 2017

@ScottAdamsSays Everything Taleb says is smarter than whatever you were thinking on your own. Especially if you are a word-thinker.   Permalink 11:31 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb “There’s A Global Riot Against Pseudo-Experts” Nassim Taleb Exclaims “This Is Not About Fascism” | Zero Hedge   Permalink 10:07 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Which is why I never read and after a mistake never write for @prosyn   Permalink 5:06 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb There is currently a global reaction against the pseudo-expert. Who is the real expert? Lindy.   Permalink 2:35 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness *precedes* Drunkards walk @investomedico . Kapish?   Permalink 5:13 AM – 6 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I systematically decline invitations to conf. discussing “populism” as if it were some type of pathology. Mere term “populism” misframes Permalink 7:51 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb By indiscriminately attacking Trump, even when he does the right thing, the pseudoleft is elevating him & self-destructing. #Antifragile   Permalink 3:44 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Remember.   Permalink 1:52 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb One of my yet unfulfilled predictions is to see the true left fight the pseudo-left over Trump’s foreign policy.   Permalink 6:21 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Syriacs are high J2 and very little J1, meaning Northern Mesopotamians had no intermixing w/Semites. Only language. @zaliin @PZalloua Permalink 6:11 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@BBassem7 This is an amazing exchange. Very courageous of Trump. #FoxNews Permalink 6:09 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb If an American entrepreneur is stupid enough to relocate to France, good news. It would improve the average of both counties.   Permalink 11:27 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Greek mytho has Europa from Tyre to Crete, Arcadia frm Ugaritic pple (Arwada). Bible has Canaan son of Ham not Shem. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:52 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) In other words the claims by Jews that they are different tribe from Cannaanites even if lang same appears true. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1) Looks like the notion “Canaanites as Semites” is bogus empirically. Both Torah & Greek mythology say they aren’t. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb More interestingly, the probability of Koura people being of Arab origin is less than 1 in 1,000,000 @PZalloua Permalink 9:42 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Distribution of Genes of Greek-Orthodox in Koura (Amioun) appears *identical* to Greek Islands/Crete @PZalloua Confirms Byzantine theory Permalink 9:29 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Artificial stupidity comes w/ overriding the Lindy-compatible in favor of some bias invented by some ignorant nerd like @r_thaler Permalink 8:57 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A. Tversky once said he didn’t care about *artificial intelligence*,he studied *natural stupidity*. I prefer to study *artificial stupidy*. Permalink 8:26 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1)Historical Intrigue du jour: Phoenicians & Assyrians likely not of “Semitic” ancestry, yet spoke Semitic lang. @PZalloua will have more. Permalink 5:18 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@BBassem7 #Saudi tweep refers to the terrorist that attacked the Louvre as a “hero” Saudis are not covered by the Trump’s ban. Permalink 2:45 PM – 3 Feb 2017

@normonics Demonstrating the IYI allergy to discontinuities. Tiny changes often beget qualitative shift.   Permalink 9:30 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Actually, they would call it… “the left”.   Permalink 5:30 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I wonder what the Enlightenment people would call a “Left” that’s authoritarian, repressive, disciplinarian, & despotically normative. Permalink 5:06 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb . @arbedout Before tweeting, think in 2nd order of why I made such statement. Check amazon, it’s #1. Permalink 4:57 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Milo’s book is the highest selling book in America, 2 month before pub! #Antifragile   Permalink 4:48 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1) Peace: Top or Bottom? Morrocan gov pro-Israel, but popul. hostile. Iran gov hostile, but not Iranians. Which peace is easier? Think Long Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Antifragile   Permalink 3:07 AM – 3 Feb 2017

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