Tag Archives: Summers

Ioannidis, Tetlock, Summers, Masks, Oil, Russian Roulette, Astrology

From the Convexity of Masks to No-Convexity Ben | Youtube
Published on Apr 24, 2020
+ Why the crisiss was not a Black Swan.
+ Masks compound (even if primitive)
+ Convexity Ben misleads with his “hedges”

Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases (pdf 4/18/2020)

(Anti)Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicine (pdf 7/31/2018)

The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System | NewYorker

As Taleb told me, “The great danger has always been too much connectivity.” Proliferating global networks, both physical and virtual, inevitably incorporate more fat-tail risks into a more interdependent and “fragile” system: not only risks such as pathogens but also computer viruses, or the hacking of information networks, or reckless budgetary management by financial institutions or state governments, or spectacular acts of terror. Any negative event along these lines can create a rolling, widening collapse—a true black swan—in the same way that the failure of a single transformer can collapse an electricity grid.

Taleb: The Only Man Who Has A Clue | NakedCapitalism

Tutorial: Simple trick to see the effect of power laws | Youtube
Published on Apr 19, 2020
A simple tutorial explaining how, in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution becomes noise.
Once you establish that a variable is in the power law class, some necessary consequences come out.
To debunk that history is dominated by tail events, you must show it does not follow a power law.

@nntaleb So we can infer that the rate of growth is NOT Gaussian, must be in the borderline subexponential class. r can be negative of course. Permalink 12:54 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Voila pic.twitter.com/5lATAOUZr7 Permalink 12:42 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Math Du Jour: What is the Distribution of Pandemics if the rate of growth follows an exponential distribution with mean 1/\lambda? Explains very simply the result with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/1StNQ7XFim Permalink 12:38 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is the kind of crap dichotomy you hear, as if 1) letting the virus run wild would not kill the economy 2) It is the government that is closing the economy, not pple A segment of libertarians/conservatives have a reasoning defect as they think in binary & static labels. https://twitter.com/RECusack/status/1254071852890284032   Permalink 8:41 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb So far, by substitution pic.twitter.com/MpMGzmY8Be Permalink 8:24 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is a mathematical problem, only for those into math. I block cute comments that are not helpful & distract the readers. Permalink 7:42 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Quarantine workout pic.twitter.com/AC2B4T6m4V Permalink 6:51 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Larry Summers, advisor? Aside from his hideous track record, Summers was fiercely AGAINST putting skin in the game of decision makers. He even managed to transform my claim that it was “necessary” into “sufficient” & argued on that basis. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b14zbkx4h89y1b/larry-summers-and-nassim-taleb-go-mano-a-mano   Permalink 4:51 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Foreseen by @barabasi https://twitter.com/pauld198/status/1253838892597309440   Permalink 2:35 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@urcum62 Angela Merkel truly understands the Covid dynamics and the Math behind it. She also understands the diffucilties associated with low probabilities. #AngelaMerkel https://twitter.com/benjalvarez1/status/1250563198081740800   Permalink 5:37 PM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Looks like the govmt is hiring Kroll to investigate #RiadPonzi’s books. Kroll specializes in FRAUD, tracking transfers, etc. Permalink 12:29 PM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Add this to the list https://twitter.com/Justin_Ling/status/1222573660952842240?s=20   Permalink 10:22 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Lebanon: #RiadPonzi Salameh is the most destructive central banker in history. He managed to stick to power for ~30 y through 10 governmnets. He is now trying to make it political. No, it is not because Hezb hates him that he is suddenly competent, honest, & principled. #Lebanon Permalink 10:11 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From the Convexity of Masks to Convexity Ben https://youtu.be/L5DCWU6heKI   via @YouTube Permalink 8:23 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/24/coronavirus-systemic-risks-black-swan-squawk-box.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar   Permalink 7:39 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The point is not whether it works or not (it may); it is just irresponsible to gamble with citizens under such opacity. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1253678040305094660   Permalink 6:53 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@hjluks Sarcopenia should be a four-lettered word … If you’re over 40 it’s happening as you read this :-( . So much badness comes from a lack of muscle mass. So much goodness comes from improving your muscle mass. https://www.howardluksmd.com/sports-medicine/muscle-mass-strength-and-longevity/   Permalink 6:32 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@Monsantobuster Best summary, Prof @nntaleb https://twitter.com/okohonen/status/1253607153857974274   Permalink 3:06 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@vibinbaburajan [Thread] Nassim Taleb’s 17 best one-line wisdom. @nntalebbot @nntaleb @TalebWisdom 1. The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary. Permalink 2:24 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Chi mangia solo, muore solo. https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1252519056403501057   Permalink 5:40 PM – 23 Apr 2020

@DavidSalazarVir Trying to get my head around fat-tails by studying @nntaleb’s latest technical book. Replicated some plots in #rstats #tidyverse https://david-salazar.github.io/2020/04/17/fat-vs-thin-does-lln-work/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NFuuQVhcXg”>  pic.twitter.com/NFuuQVhcXg Permalink 12:41 PM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I was expecting the #Lindy activists to dig out mask-wearing practices in history. For instance, the Tuareg berber tribes: men wore masks. pic.twitter.com/frToQRC8Hv Permalink 10:53 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Emanuel Derman (who knows something about probability) exposing the dangerous BS by Phil the Rat @PTetlock –whose knowledge of probability is way too primitive. https://twitter.com/EmanuelDerman/status/1252958006695911424   Permalink 9:26 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo “Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases” using Extreme Value Theory. Advice by non EVT-trained epidemiologists concerning COVID-19th tail risks is no different from advice by a carpenter concerning complex odds at roulette tables. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08658.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/FxQ5Jr9tJO”>  pic.twitter.com/FxQ5Jr9tJO Permalink 9:20 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From my dispute w/ #NoConvexityBen Meng from CALPERS (currently) largest fund on planet PRINCIPLE: Thou Shalt Not compare convex payoffs (w/ tiny downside) to linear ones (w/yuuge downside). More Basic: Thou Shalt Not Call speculative trades “hedges”. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-questions-calpers-ben-mengs-competence-and-honesty-in-defending-missed-1-billion-hedge-gain-taleb-estimates-calpers-net-loss-on-mengs-alternative-mitigation-over-two-years-at-19-billi.html   Permalink 5:04 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The safest policy is to act as if we had NO idea about the consequences of this. https://twitter.com/robkhenderson/status/1252724074335424519   Permalink 2:41 PM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb People are interested in masks & testing. Not in geopolitics (except on the weekend). Not in spending trillions on nuclear weapons when we can’t even get N95 masks. https://link.medium.com/fmROiAGnS5   Permalink 10:59 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1250996337530867718?s=20   Permalink 10:34 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Gambling by governments is irresponsible, even if the result turns out to be favorable. Permalink 10:25 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Our security = testing incoming passengers at JFK, not where trillions were spent: building yuuuge capabilities against very weak nations. Where are the tests? Where are the masks? Spending trillions (literally) because governments don’t understand the real sources of risk. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252932181447630848   Permalink 8:41 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paulina N is correct to emphasize the death toll. But it will be much higher as you must integrate future deaths at rate. Also missing morbidity: % of survivors end up with permanent lung & other damage. Finally, even if Sw ends up ahead (it won’t), the move is not responsible. https://twitter.com/paulinaneuding/status/1252494869559476224   Permalink 7:33 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Reduced connectivity Masks Culturally, precaution is respected https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/1252812420357083137   Permalink 4:29 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Bachelier was right. https://twitter.com/MarcosCarreira/status/1252918341364256768   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/pamW1RqDK4″>  pic.twitter.com/pamW1RqDK4 Permalink 4:23 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb New hobby thanks to lockdown: Olympic lifts https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1252758824689242112   Permalink 3:17 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom Here is one of my favorite @nntaleb quotes: “Don’t cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.” Permalink 1:37 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Joe is good. Very good. Should we start calling him “Sherlock Shipman”? https://twitter.com/joe_shipman/status/1252668127495806977   Permalink 3:39 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb LINDY Quarantine & restriction of mobility are Lindy; they are present in the old testament & in Islam: “If you’re away, & disease breaks out, you stay there. If home, you stay home.” https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1252443190499717121   Permalink 2:19 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@DrAmithaMD Waited for this… such a good analysis on whether #COVID19 was a rare event (it was, but we ignored the signs). “The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System” @nntaleb https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=the-new-yorker&utm_social-type=earned   via @NewYorker @bavishai Permalink 12:09 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@joe_shipman STATISTICAL INFERENCE PUZZLE @nntaleb Is “2 false positives in 401 trials” consistent with “50 false positives in 3300 trials”? What is a good null hypothesis, and what is the p-value? Permalink 8:05 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Actually slight modification to the great results by “Johnny evidence” Ioannidis. You don’t need Jensen to prove the inequality pic.twitter.com/AbQI9rbcDQ Permalink 6:51 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The Trump Administration is suspending immigration owing to the Corovirus pandemic after discovering the interesting epidemiological property that (documented) immigrants are highly infectious, but tourists & business visitors are not. Permalink 6:48 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Another grave error in the “Johnny evidence” Ioannidis & friends paper, not too dissimilar to Simpson’s paradox, (also spotted by @gian_rinaldi, private communication): They don’t get the convexity of divisions. If a result doesn’t make sense & comes from nerds, it is wrong. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1252549640714665984   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/afMaSqvF0Y”>  pic.twitter.com/afMaSqvF0Y Permalink 4:37 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@ishirubi Ok I can go rest in peace now: pic.twitter.com/cYAIlQsLFF Permalink 3:43 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) This is from Dynamic Hedging (1997), with a discussion of fungibility and first deliverable contract. pic.twitter.com/BTDXA6Bc7k Permalink 12:43 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Oil: The basis is out of whack because of storage. It is like being stuck in traffic in a Bentley, and no possibility of leaving it so you need to pay someone to take it from you. Permalink 12:30 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@paulanawfal من كم شهر رحت لأحضر ندوة ل @nntaleb بالجامعة اليسوعية وما كان في وسعى مبارح حضرت الإعادة وهيدا المقطع هو المفضل الي بالندوة #RamsusRiad pic.twitter.com/00vLBPkT4w Permalink 12:02 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Every #RWRI we discuss the situation how *oil above ground* (hence the front oil future) can sqeeze suckers and have a negative value because it can be impossible to store during a glut and impossible to abandon because of EPA. Negative optionality from liability. https://twitter.com/business/status/1252298699792883713   Permalink 11:56 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #protectyourpension #CalPERS #tailrisk #tailhedge https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/press-ferrets-out-more-falsehoods-by-calpers-cio-ben-meng-evidence-of-poor-leadership-in-giving-up-1-billion-hedge-payday.html   https://www.wsj.com/articles/calpers-unwound-hedges-just-before-marchs-epic-stock-selloff-11587211200   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/J3rUY6vc60″>  pic.twitter.com/J3rUY6vc60 Permalink 9:51 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2015: When people ask me to talk about RISK, I talk about epidemics. Not ISIS, not journalistic BS. [I lost weight and increased by Max DL by 100 lbs since] https://youtu.be/DDdBTaLjGIo   via @YouTube Permalink 9:08 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Sorry, I meant he doesn’t get that car accidents are not multiplicative. IOANNIDIS: Here we have someone doing probability & lecturing people on probability errors who like this ignorant Phil the rat Tetlock @PTetlock has never heard of Chernoff bounds. Permalink 7:54 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb John Ioannidis, in his argumentation, reasoning, and demeanor reminds me of what we call “a pre-blown up trader”. He doesn’t get (among other things) that driving 9 to 415 miles is not multiplicative and CONTAGIOUS. https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1249941253887844352   Permalink 7:47 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is a statistical signal abt HQN to ADDRESS even if Zelenko, like Raoult, doesn’t look like Dr. Could be: samples of large “anecdotes” are biased, or NY & Marseilles hide the dead. Note that the media DOES NOT require a double blind for Gilead. Explain the dual standards. https://twitter.com/zev_dr/status/1252180245760937996   Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@balajis Just-the-flu journalists failed across the board. That includes Fox, and the NYT reporter now denouncing Fox. pic.twitter.com/tnSaw7LWOG Permalink 3:16 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Compare the richest countries, such as Sweden, making a “tradoff” (which is not even a tradeoff anyway) compared to much poorer places in the East Med, India, or China that wouldn’t even remotely consider a Faustian bargain. Shame. Wealth brings moral degeneracy. Permalink 2:25 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb GERONTICIDE is the sign of moral decay. Indian official explained only “rich” countries make a tradeoff betw lives & “economy” (assuming they are separable). The argument of “lockdown costing lives” is bunk: in the poor country, India, ~nobody starved. The richer, the worse!!! Permalink 1:30 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb People are starting to understand stuff. It took a pandemic for that. I never never dreamed that my Russian Roulette argument would be expressed by those against whom I have used it over the past 2 decades. pic.twitter.com/Xih2Vse1Ft Permalink 10:57 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb A simple tutorial explaining how, in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution is NOISE. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhTHG3QmVwM&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 10:04 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo on the Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases. Explains our attitude towards the disease; why epidemiological models are largely NOISE. https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   Permalink 8:01 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rats will also be liars. “Phil the rat” @PTetlock is misrepresenting the reason I call him a rat. It is for spending years trying to publicly discredit our concern for tail payoff, ergodicity w/o a slightest clue abt the statistical implication of power laws, even probability. Permalink 7:06 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Solution. This friend of mine found the trick. If there is (cc) on Youtube you can see both the subtitles in the original language and the transcript in English. pic.twitter.com/ZhHkwO8D0z Permalink 4:19 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Add: the IYI was wrong on masks, mobility, multiplicative risks, etc. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1251827685841608704   Permalink 4:02 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Alternative explanations are 1) ouzo (what we call in the Levant “the milk of lions”), 2) Orthodoxy: Unlike Spain, Greece celebrates Easter on the correct calendar, 3) Greek coffee (a.k.a. Turkish). Otherwise quite convincing. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1251704323035344896   Permalink 3:20 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@SrinivasR1729 Go down deep enough into anything and you will find mathematics. pic.twitter.com/EUP0mV41u6 Permalink 12:12 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/JeE1psGJKF Permalink 4:56 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Learned to cook linguini with squid ink. Who needs restaurants when you have 1) internet access, 2) good olive oil, 3) really fresh garlic & parsley, 4) fresh tomatoes, 5) good white wine, 6) salt, etc. pic.twitter.com/JDDogjGEF7 Permalink 4:53 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Currently people testing positive (or presumptive positive) are sent home to infect their families. Where is the outrage? There should be other options so that families will be safe. Every community, state and country, should have a “Safe Family” program. Permalink 4:23 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, this friend of mine wants to watch a Greek movie with both Greek and English subtitles. Netflix can do it in other languages, not Greek (he is based in the US). Is there a way to do it? Permalink 3:55 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Χριστός Ανέστη ! Permalink 11:11 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@artemon Seems like a great case of absence of evidence being treated like evidence of absence, plus violating the precautionary principle. Thank you @nntaleb for teaching me to see these clearly. https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/no-need-to-wipe-down-food-packaging-during-coronavirus-pandemic-fda-says/amp/   Permalink 10:35 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nobody realized that for Lebanon, Greece, Cyprus, & Marseilles, the real reason of the low rate of Corona infections/fatalities is the arak/ouzo/pastis. Experiments show you need to drink it during & before every meal for it to be effective. And try the purest you can find. pic.twitter.com/XQzIIs0L4N Permalink 8:48 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Bravo #Lebanon. Early paranoia pays! pic.twitter.com/CU5yP416tf Permalink 4:47 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb What is behind, among others, the moniker “Phil the rat” @PTetlock. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1250994645041131522   Permalink 4:39 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “The intellectshual world is populated by a collection of people who are much better at explaining than understanding.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 4:19 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@berndschiffer And also @nntaleb ‘s “new kind of ingratitude” comes to mind. “Who is more valuable, the politician who avoids a war or the one who starts a new one (and is lucky enough to win)?” #COVID19Aus #COVID pic.twitter.com/UXLn1kAOMs Permalink 3:11 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@uair01 Nice picture of extremistan versus mediocristan mortality and why ” Covid is different: @nntaleb @trishankkarthik https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1251113801384185858   Permalink 7:40 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@stevenstrogatz Yes, @nntaleb practices what he preaches. On the day we met, he walked me around New York for seven hours and enjoyed a plate of pasta with squid ink. https://twitter.com/humankarp/status/1248240881666347008   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DhhphvMtrp”>  pic.twitter.com/DhhphvMtrp Permalink 6:28 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Drowning in swimming pools is extremely contagious and multiplicative. https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1250975504401760256   Permalink 4:19 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@nntaleb HITS THE SPOT: “What is happening right now is not because all the epidemiologists & virologists around the world are wrong, but because they’re asked to make decisons and construct models about something they don’t know nearly enough about.” https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html   Permalink 5:23 PM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb OK, OK. Thanks @yvessmith https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html   Permalink 11:57 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: In Judeo-Arabic Baghdad seems to be spelled בגדד not בעדד(with a gimmel not a ghayn) (unlike more historical غزة-> עזה or Gomorrah עֲמֹרָה not גמֹרָה from transliteration Γομορραν) (pharyngeal [ʕ] not epiglottal [ʢ.) When was the غ lost in Hebrew? Permalink 10:50 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Why you cannot use epidemiological models with point estimates when variables are stochastic. An illustration. You end up with a crazy distribution of outcomes, get fooled. This is our problem with the UK “model”. pic.twitter.com/yBk1AygMwN Permalink 9:36 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is potentially yuuuuge. Do not miss. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1250088423450435588   Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I don’t know if he (and those liking the graph) realize that an R-squared of .15 means, if you look at it generously, that almost all the variance is for random reasons, something like ~98% (conventional) or (entropy) >99.9%. @salilstatistics https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821828891250688   Permalink 4:52 AM – 14 Apr 2020

@Jac5Connor Nassim asks an important question: Do masks cause earthquakes? I bet this is why the WHO took so long to recommend them. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1249760833967656961   Permalink 1:14 PM – 13 Apr 2020

@gernelle «Une catégorie de personnes ne cesse d’augmenter(…) plus douées pour expliquer que pour comprendre. Ou plus douées pour expliquer que pour faire.” ⁦@nntaleb⁩ cité par ⁦@sebastienlefol⁩ dans un édito percutant #covid ⁦@LePoint⁩ https://www.lepoint.fr/tiny/1-2371181   Permalink 11:40 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Just explained in a lecture that risk management and “science” are not the same thing. Risk is about asymmetries. With .1% error rate, few flight attendants would be alive. pic.twitter.com/mTZMi4YKaK Permalink 7:14 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Do not conflate doing science and being nice and polite to scientists. Permalink 3:54 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, another robust question to get the convexity. How many people contracted COVID while wearing surgical masks? How many w/N95? How many with cowboy scarves? (Assume for now homogeneity. We are looking for convexity, not measurement). Permalink 7:13 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb We have a hint: @dzviovich just sent me something useful: comparison of US vs CZ w/a single sign. difference: edict to wear maks. We know masks work (from other combined statistical signals). Now let’s back up the convexity of probability of infection to particle concentration. pic.twitter.com/H2KNgiptX5 Permalink 7:06 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb We need to get the probability of getting sick at different concentration of droplets. We could probably back it up (or get a handle on the convexity) from country data (Czech republic). Intuition: reduction of 70% of particles is yuuuge: home masks should work. Plus if 2-way! pic.twitter.com/Fd4nQ8Pxmr Permalink 6:53 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb There is something about “ceteris paribus” (everything else being constant) for a marginal property that commentators are not getting. Permalink 5:36 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@spwells An excerpt from my interview with @VanceCrowe discussing why the Coronavirus pandemic isn’t a black swan event. @nntaleb https://youtu.be/wjUp6EKEI7k   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/emiTijIbp4″>  pic.twitter.com/emiTijIbp4 Permalink 5:26 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The answer is by @Physical_Prep which maps to the 2/3 scaling exponent found by Geoffrey West. It depends on your level of course as you can see. https://twitter.com/Physical_Prep/status/1249478047478276100?s=20   Permalink 4:45 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb WEIGHTLIFTING Friends, for every additional 10lbs of say deadlift how many additional pounds of muscle mass would be gained? Approximately of course. Permalink 3:07 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I’ve lost weight since. https://twitter.com/MasaSkiba/status/1249445673117900800   Permalink 2:26 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@normonics John Conway lost to coronavirus. That is terrible news. Conway’s game of life is something I always show at #RWRI. NEVER fails to make the floating lightbulbs above everyone’s heads spark on. RIP https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1249439501585453056   Permalink 1:54 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday! And, to those on the non-Orthodox calendar, Happy Easter! Permalink 7:12 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb That’s for an individual. If everyone wore *VERY BAD* masks, I guess the number of deaths would drop by a yuuuge factor, maybe 90%. Why? p is probability of infection, look at 1-p^n because everyone is reducing. For 2 pple masks act a 2-way filter, 1-p^2. Yuuge. Permalink 4:44 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The proof is in https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/I7ibmge5EY”>  pic.twitter.com/I7ibmge5EY Permalink 4:30 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb MASKS One comment about masks and nonlinearities that these imbeciles are not getting. Reducing exposure to viruses by 30% thanks to an “imperfect” mask does not mean reducing risk of contracting the disease by just 30%. By convexity, it must be more than 30%, can even be 95%. Permalink 4:22 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Treading *absence of evidence* as *evidence of absence* is a form of overoptimization. Permalink 3:52 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@joe_shipman https://www.npr.org/2020/04/10/830348837/covid-19-patients-given-unproven-drug-in-texas-nursing-home-garnering-criticism   This is an very evil article. It may not be apparent at first why I make such a serious charge. But I stand by it. It is viciously slanted with sophistical language and manipulative presentation, even though the truth can be discerned anyway. @nntaleb Permalink 7:21 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb and… the NYT and science journos and ignorant “evidence based” epidemiologists who can’t read absence of evidence got us here. Don’t blame mayors who shut down cities, blame misinformation about masks and mobility. Blame the New York Times. Permalink 6:49 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb It’s not the reaction that wrecked the economy. It’s the LACK of INITIAL reaction that wrecked the economy. Proper border controls on Jan 26, plus masks & tests & we’d be fine now. The @CDC, @WHO, UK Gov helped spread disinformation. After 3 m, still no masks & tests!!! Permalink 6:38 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Correction: Does Big Pharma own the media? Permalink 3:22 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Chloroquine: Does Big Pharma owns the media? + Studies are said to be “not rigorous” when it comes to Chloroquine in spite of robust statistical signal + Studies w/less rigor and significance are promoted when it comes to drugs by Gilead Note: Chl was OTC, costs 1 Euro a pack. pic.twitter.com/UU2URRxWNV Permalink 3:19 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Managed to sneak in 2 footnotes for my new book related to COVID before the printing starts. https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics/dp/1544508050/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=taleb+tails&qid=1586634894&sr=8-1   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/9XRe6AxUsg”>  pic.twitter.com/9XRe6AxUsg Permalink 12:57 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The best therapy; lowers our anxiety and helps organize our minds while facing mild uncertainty. Aesthetic and harmless; unlike economics and social “science”. Discussed in #FooledbyRandomness https://twitter.com/viggiereggae/status/1249038310405701632   Permalink 11:34 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@birdxi1988 This is how @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam and @normonics ‘s Precautionary Principle destroys the evidence-based practices. In January, they specifically warned that the estimated R0 would be biased downwards. Guess what, CDC says that R0 appears to be 5.7 vs. 2.2-2.7 previously thought! pic.twitter.com/xP9BOb4Jl3 Permalink 11:26 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@davidsarac What Nassim Nicholas Taleb is showing us by his persistent rudeness is that things one is ready to be rude about are worthy of understanding too In terms of evolutionary dynamics, it is a cry of the bird warning other birds predator is approaching Permalink 10:54 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb More elegant. It is hard to live on a planet where the most cited person in epidemiology, John Ioannidis, doesn’t understand exponential, hence multiplication. Yet he tries to make policy. pic.twitter.com/iZadn4eaUK Permalink 8:57 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Wrong. Levantine coast had 5 additional Greek areas. Plus Berytus and Baalbeck spoke mainly Latin owing to Law school and Roman resettlements. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1248733254838075392   Permalink 7:43 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb John Ioannidis does not get that model uncertainty WORSENS possible outcomes under exponential growth & should lead to MORE reaction. Dangerous ignorance. Here is a derivation from Jensen’s ineq. pic.twitter.com/XGUtqlR2py Permalink 7:26 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@pierrewaters Localism & mafia: news the @nntaleb crew will like: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/mafia-distributes-food-to-italys-struggling-residents   Permalink 5:28 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “Some people are so foolish that they only get answers right when they misunderstand the question.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 5:18 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@mikeharrisNY Their logic and yours is wrong. Because doors sometimes fail to stop thieves, does it mean we should not have doors? Is this what is proposed? Can someone be so dump? Apparently, yes. Permalink 1:59 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rightwing sociopathic quacks like @BjornLomborg: are ALWAYS on the wrong side of things precautionary, (including climate). Saying “no worse than the flu” was ignorant 3 months ago; saying it after data from the past few weeks is outright malfeasance. @Twitter blocks fakenews. https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1248666930313134083   Permalink 4:02 PM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From @RupertRead: states that Precautionary Principle applies ONLY to specific multiplicative things/power law call with alpha<2 Beware misinformaiton by frauds such as the rat @PTetlock & shill @Dgardner making it look like undirected paranoia (Martians invading the planet). pic.twitter.com/yDKmdBOebW Permalink 12:15 PM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Very encouraging to see young Lebanese from all backgrounds attacking the shill #MarcelGhanem for making an antisemitic remark. Things have changed! https://twitter.com/firasmaksad/status/1248638888970727426   Permalink 11:53 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Everyone must see!!! https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1248234206582300673   Permalink 11:23 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@BrankoMilan Indeed, after every seasonal flu, NYC does mass graves… How can people write such easily contradicted things is beyond me to understand. https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1248666930313134083   Permalink 10:42 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Many solutions, mostly @SrinivasR1729 This tidies the whole “ting”. pic.twitter.com/bV6N71TcZj Permalink 10:40 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@eassily Hah ! @nntaleb and @byzantinepower would appreciate this pic.twitter.com/3U68wb9hXp Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Weekend distraction. By @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/IStnXBEU2H Permalink 5:01 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The best part about this is that I can walk in the park without being asked for a selfie (or an autograph) by a graduate student in computer science at the local university. https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1246091194557509632   Permalink 3:16 PM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Yes, office transmission is much much much more controlled than cross-geographical superspreaders. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1248339170810044417   Permalink 1:01 PM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, real heroes. And criminal neglect by risk-blind “evidence based” bureaucrats. And, friends, in the meanwhile, wear a mask. Again, than you all the Dr Chowdhurys. https://twitter.com/AamerAnwar/status/1248236912298676224   Permalink 11:09 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Serious business (weight trainining): Friends (@GrantSSC & others), how long, after a *true* 5RM or 1RM deadlift (meaning you can’t redo it right away), does it take to recover at 100% and redo it? 20 minutes? 4 hours? 3 days? Permalink 9:30 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Fat tails. Reduce superspreaders. https://twitter.com/pauld198/status/1243322026166636545   Permalink 9:01 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@cdipaola62 @Judgenap thoughts on prospect of class action lawsuits against hospitals/health systems? Will the nurse’s unions put pressure on in other ways? Interested in your opinion. @nntaleb @CalNurses @MassNurses https://twitter.com/ppe4medics/status/1248220605092179970   Permalink 5:25 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Most “evidence based” IYIs use statistical tools they don’t understand AND are deprived of the logical faculties of grandmothers, which explains the explosive blunders of @WHO, “science” journos, @CassSunstein, @R_Thaler, idiots like @PTetlock the rat, etc. https://twitter.com/Amellal1490/status/1248211351232753664   Permalink 5:09 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb FAT TAIL PROPERTY 90-98% of the diffusion can be reduced by limiting superspreaders & forcing masks: + Subways/buses + Conferences (especially involving psychologists/behavioral economists) + Planes + Elevators + Bars with bad Negronis + Indoor restaurants/cafés Rest is normal. https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1248046032119713795   Permalink 5:42 PM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Statistically, you should see much more of this. The system imposes some #Skininthegame: those who inflict risks on others are subjected themselves to the same risks. As with Boris. Sad. https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/pastor-who-criticized-coronavirus-mass-hysteria-dies-from-illness/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons   via @nypost Permalink 1:45 PM – 8 Apr 2020

@mncube This is how @nntaleb trades https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1247933676874334208   Permalink 11:17 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb And Mr @david_perell if you need ancestry for my version of “skin in the game”, you don’t go up to Steve Jobs. Try harder and deeper into history: Hammurabi, >3750 years ago. Permalink 11:15 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nice try, @david_perell He is using the term “skin in the game” as incentive not as risk asymmetry (be responsible for the harm you do). Try again. https://twitter.com/david_perell/status/1247922133784612864   Permalink 11:13 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR February in Chr Aramaic is Shbat,ܫܒܳܛ, “blows” from ” רוח נשבת” (the wind blows, original Accadian Šabātu) hence “windy month”. (Others were ~Babylonian gods). Remarkably the French Revolution renamed “Ventôse” (windy month) the span from Feb ~19-March 19. Permalink 6:58 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@mikeandallie Adding to the prior retweet to say that Nassim’s 2019 paper linked below plus the recent work of @ole_b_peters and @alex_adamou on ergodicity economics have been hugely influential to me not just in thinking about option pricing, but thinking about long-dated risk generally. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1247875980619898880   Permalink 6:23 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb You did not need recent events to get that the mean-variance based methods, along with RISK PARITY used in finance (by many funds) are a fraud. I explained the details in #TheBlackSwan See paper how we (my friends & I) price options under power laws. https://www.academia.edu/39149471/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mHYZk0W0ok”>  pic.twitter.com/mHYZk0W0ok Permalink 6:16 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb In a hospital if you are dealing with patients. But in social life you don’t have the exposure and, critically, BOTH have masks. https://twitter.com/ndehouche/status/1247561146829160453?s=20   Permalink 4:59 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Asymmetry. Never bail out without clawback. https://twitter.com/premnsikka/status/1247646108144320513   Permalink 4:13 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I revealed it at the USJ lecture last November, from data from (among others) Toufic Gaspard (live on national TV). #RiadPonzi then launched a smear campaign. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU&t=3960s   https://twitter.com/loubnanouna1/status/1247840083631394817   Permalink 4:04 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@GMWatch Powerful condemnation of the UK govt’s failure to follow the #PrecautionaryPrinciple over #COVID19 — by UEA professor @RupertRead, who together with @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @normonics & others, has for months repeatedly been demanding precautionary action to save lives. https://twitter.com/RupertRead/status/1247600027712647168   Permalink 3:41 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3)Other fallacy is by the *tradeoff idiots* who don’t get: a) even if governments did nothing, airplanes & restaurants would be bust by now as # pple are doing bottom-up quarantines b)hospitals would be overwhelmed c)millions of young sick (many w/permanent damage) d)+uncertainty Permalink 5:45 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2) I meant don’t treat your parents the way you don’t want *your children* to treat you! Actually the “triage” (sacrificing the old) is a new European thing introduced in Italy; Roman society worshiped & protected the elders. Same with Eastern societies. (Senatus=Sheikh=elder). Permalink 5:17 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Aside from the pathetic modeling behind the “herd immunity”: it is morally repulsive. Civilization RESIDES in the enforcement of intergenerational golden (actuallly, silver rules): don’t treat your parents the way you don’t want them to treat you! From #SkinInTheGame #Incerto pic.twitter.com/fzB2W5kWpE Permalink 5:11 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@spwells Spread of the Olive Tree in the Mediterranean Basin ⁦@PZalloua⁩ ⁦@nntaleb⁩ https://vividmaps.com/olive-tree-in-the-mediterranean-bassin/   Permalink 11:25 AM – 7 Apr 2020

Kasparov, Friedman, Pinker Boy, Idiot Journo, Gym Voting, Summers, Lindy Effect, Stiglitz, Parag Khanna, Michiko Kakutani, Obama | Twitter

@nntaleb Not just this idiot but MSM journos keeps calling “tyrant” a person who never ran a country. Minimum IQ required!https://twitter.com/ARoss2929/status/820430811241521153   Permalink 4:51 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And Sorry, poor unassisted and courageous Yemen, I keep forgetting.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/820422471887241216   Permalink 4:45 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 6) Obama allowed bankers to have the biggest bonus pool in history, in 2010, just after we bailed them out. Plus Geithner a rep of cronyK. Permalink 4:20 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Obama destroyed Michael Flynn’s career because he was opposed to covert policy of financing/training AlQaeda in Syria @mjb1286 Permalink 4:14 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@yaneerbaryam Tail risk decision-maker, protector of the system. The Prez is the risk manager not the risk creator. Permalink 4:11 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 5) Obama favored Jihadi headchoppers over secularists, financed AlQaeda, wrecked Lybia & Syria, decimated Christian communities. Shame! Permalink 4:08 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 4) Obama-novacaine left us with 10 trillion gov debt for 7-10 mil jobs and hugely increased fragility in the system. Permalink 4:04 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Basically “no scandal in his presidency” sums it all: for we didn’t elect an archbishop for sermons & lectures, but a decision-maker. Permalink 4:00 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) His legacy is an increased centralization in the most complex system we’ve seen, instead of exact opposite. Not the America I want. Permalink 3:58 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 1) My summary of Obama: He is the fellow who, when there is fire in the building, makes a great moving speech, then calls for advice. Permalink 3:56 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Dina Powell is a Copt. She is no “Arab” American; shameful on their part to use identity politics w/wrong identity. @EHSANI22 Permalink 3:43 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb PhilologyParadoxduJour. Levantine for man is zalmé/zolm, Syriac for small/weak; man in W. Semitic GVR, frm ~strong pic.twitter.com/PJOwRRFixH Permalink 9:26 AM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Fails to get that separation isn’t “populist” vs”technical” but Real World competence vs academic “tawk” @tylercowenhttp://bv.ms/2jevRhY   Permalink 7:48 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb You can tell at the arguments used if a person is a crypto-ISIS supporter. “We hate ISIS *but* first… “https://twitter.com/Pyrmha108/status/820062894679330816   Permalink 7:00 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Davos is the Intellectual Yet Idiots IYIs annual convention, joined w/the International Association of Name Droppershttps://twitter.com/linear911/status/820074029994258432   Permalink 6:42 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Great place for Apollo worshippershttps://twitter.com/g_exercitus/status/819993119173255168   Permalink 12:56 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Actually, I would say further, @CutTheKnotMath is the best educational math site on the internet! Permalink 8:58 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Went today to the Roman temple to honor Apollo & found it profanated with Santa Claus & Christmas decorations. pic.twitter.com/X3KTcVQQxE Permalink 8:45 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb From what I’ve noticed linguists don’t get co-linearity, make statistical fallacies @akhchronicles @siinjiim pic.twitter.com/NGjJOijCqL Permalink 7:48 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My first Follow Friday #FF is to @CutTheKnotMath. Follow his twitter math problems for edification, pleasure, or to kill time in airports! Permalink 7:38 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proving Levantine is not derived from Arabic leads to same for most other so-called “colloquial Arabic” dialects & “Arabism” to fall apart. Permalink 5:11 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shemesh is finally shining on the Southern slope of Mount Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/zBsLMqNwFf Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Voila, in Classical Syriac Baqara also cow @candela3paz pic.twitter.com/iZZ0E9Xvw6 Permalink 4:11 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “House”is “Beit”in Hebrew/Phoenician, Aramaic,& spoken Levantine (rboso), Bayt in Arabic. For idiotArab nationalists, it comes from Arabic. Permalink 3:02 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Today Snow in Mount Lebanon with ominous clouds (from my window). pic.twitter.com/yIhgfx5k7Y Permalink 2:46 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Words such as “syrup” or “sorbet” that come from Arabic actually have Aramaic roots SRB: parched (to offset) pic.twitter.com/uwnqqjgsXo Permalink 2:38 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Much of the similarities between Levantine & Arabic come from Aramaic loan words into Arabic, particularly religious ones @seize_the_dave Permalink 1:31 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Arab “nationalists” believe & spread the BS that pple in the Levant had NO language before the Arabs showed up. In fact it is the reverse. Permalink 1:28 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Finally, I consider an IQ test, rather “Intellectual Yet Idiot” test: IYIs are pro-GMOs for “scientific” reasons.https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.s8o3lvf46   Permalink 12:39 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Also 538 DOES NOT have a good Brier Score: You shd include ALL forecasts! @rpmiller4 @SamWangPhD pic.twitter.com/cpSzbelnS0 Permalink 12:29 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@rpmiller4 @DavisMets @SamWangPhD Brier score doesn’t cover tail risk. Would you use it for airplanes? Permalink 12:22 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Sam Wang who gave Trump <1% shd now know enough abt forecast errors to respect risk @DavisMets @SamWangPhD http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 12:13 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb LEvantine vocabulary, 80% of words used in conversation (Zipf). Very few words have Arabic origin (conflations). pic.twitter.com/eL1j8U1wZi Permalink 10:37 PM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Never trust a journalist except if she’s your mother. (Bed of Procrustes)https://twitter.com/diannawolfe13/status/819423309259481089   Permalink 10:00 PM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The prof doesn’t get it. Tenured profs are there to “pursue the truth” but to make a career. Amateurs pursue truth.http://wpo.st/zlyQ2   Permalink 9:50 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am certain I am not the only one to see Rex Tillerson as one day President of the United States.http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2017/01/11/tillerson-to-senate-sanctions-harm-american.html   Permalink 8:31 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@DrCirillo Last version of the paper with @nntaleb about operational risk and apparently infinite means: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2681006   A few typos corrected. Permalink 8:03 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@EHSANI22 Rex Tillerson explaining to senators Russian role in global order is like a Professor talking to …………. Permalink 7:49 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@iyad_elbaghdadi You contradict yourself. This is inconsistent w/your classification of Maltese as nonArabs from genes in spite of lang. Permalink 5:57 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am convinced that Michiko Kakutani is mentally ill. @michikokakutani pic.twitter.com/qn1wVTKgcn Permalink 5:49 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@denver_analyst “Inequality and Skin in the Game” — @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#—0-144.tvz4diwpr   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ewcaGWLIXS”>  pic.twitter.com/ewcaGWLIXS Permalink 5:22 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Justinian’s code: ~ 50 vol generally on symmetry in transactions! Many clauses originally Berytus. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/6Q6cSwbqLu Permalink 4:59 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Yes, illusion that ideas make it because of some methodological stamp, rather test of time via Lindy @BruBartonSinger @aeronlaffere Permalink 4:34 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I ban Huffington Post from publishing my material that is otherwise public to others.https://twitter.com/TankRizzo/status/819157902392967168   Permalink 4:29 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Malta speaks a Semitic language v. close to Levantine;but nobody insists it’s a “dialect of Arabic”. No ArabLeague.https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/819143770084085760   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Added more sections to my chapter on Lindy https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.u6g3y6ya1   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0KZcPnvg4S”>  pic.twitter.com/0KZcPnvg4S Permalink 3:40 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Reading Theodosius’ code looking for #SkinintheGame & symmetry in transaction. Sharia is too sophisticated to come from Arabia @hosain719 Permalink 1:57 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If @realDonaldTrump ate ice cream, Krugman wd criticize ice cream. If he ate apples,he wd criticize apples. This is info abt Krugman not DT. Permalink 12:50 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@RonPaulInstitut Where Was Meryl Streep When Obama Was Prosecuting Whistleblowers & Bombing Weddings? http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2017/january/10/where-was-meryl-streep-when-obama-was-prosecuting-whistleblowers-bombing-weddings/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rUBxrLfIdm”>  pic.twitter.com/rUBxrLfIdm Permalink 12:35 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Three stages of the Christmas cheese from M. Spitznagel’s goat farm. pic.twitter.com/OVfNpsxjEf Permalink 9:59 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Not racial: was Rome’s way to control Green-Card marriages. Legal liabilities more punishing for those marrying non citizens (“barbarians”) Permalink 7:29 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Interesting Fact du jour. Theodosius code:Marrying a Barbarian(“gentile”)=capital punishment. Rule made in Beirut. pic.twitter.com/GbpxzydE7w Permalink 5:28 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Added section to https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.ia7askabt   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mVwAvl3Yax”>  pic.twitter.com/mVwAvl3Yax Permalink 4:58 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@philmop Empirical vs Theoretic, Researchers vs Grandmothers, @nntaleb’s top piece on the deprostitutionalization of research http://bit.ly/2jy5VP9   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vO4UiWpv8F”>  pic.twitter.com/vO4UiWpv8F Permalink 3:00 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@NIRPUmbrella A smart PhD economist on his economic outlook after reading ‘The Black Swan’ by @nntaleb. #Complexity pic.twitter.com/xkxEIwZdX9 Permalink 4:21 PM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb It is as hard to fake indifference when you are interested as it is to fake interest when you are indifferent. Permalink 12:52 PM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb This is a more technical version of the problem of non constant Pareto \alpha https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.02369.pdf   @BrankoMilan Permalink 11:11 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My Amazon review of a real book on Foreign Affairs https://www.amazon.com/review/R1MPOC1YEX7D5R/ref=cm_cr_dp_title?ie=UTF8&ASIN=9351777596&channel=detail-glance&nodeID=283155&store=books   Permalink 10:41 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Do you realize this puts you –as a classicist — on top of the pyramid? @ArmandDAngour Permalink 9:45 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Parag Khanna’s ideas about technocracy, US, Singapore, Switz, & why we need smaller Washingtonhttp://wpo.st/I2UQ2   Permalink 6:32 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I just published “An Expert Called Lindy”https://medium.com/p/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf   Permalink 5:53 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Cannanite Shift @oldlevantine @lourou1981 You good; very good. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canaanite_shift   Permalink 4:44 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Stiglitz is the poifect reverse indicatorhttps://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/818251394817937408   Permalink 4:24 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@normonics Uncontrolled spreading of environmentally detrimental GMO — systemic risk!! http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pp2.pdf  http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2017/01/grass_seed_industry_fearful_ab.html   Permalink 3:09 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb #MathisBeautiful Fixed! @CutTheKnotMath @republicofmath pic.twitter.com/0ISJqe5OSg Permalink 10:53 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@DanielLMcAdams Does anyone believe Christmas would be celebrated in Aleppo if Washington’s jihadist head-choppers had “liberated” it?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/818088570623770625   Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb There were large Armenian quarters in Jerusalem, Aleppo, Alexandria BEFORE the Genocide, thanks to diff church didn’t integrate @TNinestein Permalink 7:45 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Reexplaining the Lindy Effect as well as why is free he who doesn’t care about his reputation. pic.twitter.com/H9w9dPYcQv Permalink 7:28 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Aleppo depended on Cilicia during Tigran’s dominance. @TNinestein pic.twitter.com/1NW4FLEpLQ Permalink 5:49 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Armenian Christmas in Aleppo. The Armenian comm. precedes the Arab conquest. Still there in spite of Hussain Obama https://twitter.com/ThierryMARIANI/status/818027631073492992   Permalink 5:34 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Ms Anya policygoonocrat @AnyaMartin8, pls find a SINGLE concept in my writing not backed up with rigorous technical formulation. Thanks you. Permalink 1:24 PM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A businessperson cares abt his reputation as it facilitates business, not as an end. For people who aren’t free, reputation is the end. Permalink 12:35 PM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 5 abstract & ill-defined words in 140chr: “strong” “vital partner””free” “dictatorship” i.e., can apply to anything.https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/817811092575584260   Permalink 11:30 AM – 7 Jan 2017

@elkement Bookmarked @nntaleb’s post on The New Artisan https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153860152453375   I read it whenever I feel to falter as a small business owner. Permalink 7:09 AM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/cYb1QTGudM Permalink 5:37 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Life isn’t about getting forecasts “right”; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it. Permalink 1:09 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb All talk. It is not people on twitter one shd impress, but the taxmanhttps://twitter.com/AnnPettifor/status/817405431702323200   Permalink 12:31 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shadi Hamid @shadihamid represents the interests of the funders of AlQeda. Much worse than neocon. @FedUpCitizen_ Permalink 11:16 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And I forgot to add the Copts who deserve our attention the most!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/817409792406855680   Permalink 11:11 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb To my Armenian and Russian Orthodox friends, Merry Christmas! Permalink 8:37 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proof that entropy under 2nd law leads to thin tails,or why Pinker is a charlatan @sapinker @yaneerbaryam pic.twitter.com/KEmdqFg61J Permalink 7:17 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Nobody is noticing: the entropy error by Pinker boy @sapinker is precisely what leads pple to believe in thintails everywhere. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Syria is the victim of “hotel journalism”: war correspondents clustering in Beirut, far from Aleppo. TBS, 10y ago: pic.twitter.com/pV8zLUybkv Permalink 4:30 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is it me or there is something wrong with Steven Pinker @sapinker pronouncements on scientific topics? @yaneerbaryamhttps://medium.com/@yaneerbaryam/brief-comment-on-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics-in-human-affairs-885105dc8419?source=twitterShare-f138bf5466fe-1483664469   Permalink 5:02 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@dnlmc @nntaleb Ben Franklin on IYIs (from https://twitter.com/dnlmc/status/810331163797712896  ) ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uW9ho5Zywp”>  pic.twitter.com/uW9ho5Zywp Permalink 4:07 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I’ve learned more tricks & heuristics from Rory than I’ve learned from all other English speaking humans.https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/817059502944112640   Permalink 1:37 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The usual illustration confirming Math is Beautiful @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/jKsLrjWlm4 Permalink 12:37 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb They live in Washington DC @digvijoy_c @MaxAbrahms Permalink 12:16 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The Babylonian root is shitpu, ashaptu, ashabu, etc.: surge in fire; looking for Ugaritic @asadabukhalil @lourou1981 pic.twitter.com/esBeT7AnRd Permalink 11:24 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@leithfadel Hi @ABarnardNYT – Why did you leave out the part where Kerry says the US used ISIS to pressure Assad to negotiate?http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/30/world/middleeast/john-kerry-syria-audio.html   Permalink 11:06 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If you want to make sure someone never misses your tweets, block him. Permalink 9:38 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@elliotsanchez @nntaleb Guidelines were wrong for years, we should introduce stressors early for 80% less allergies. Shocked http://www.cbsnews.com/news/peanut-allergies-new-guidelines-for-parents-children/   Permalink 8:07 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shob is in Syriac, apparently not in Arabic @lourou1981 pic.twitter.com/rw96tu221b Permalink 4:38 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@anishraju As always, @nntaleb stays ever relevant. In 2017, subtract unhappiness instead of adding happiness. pic.twitter.com/mw037RwTfj Permalink 3:06 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@MaxAbrahms Do you find it troubling when think tanks that get foreign funding from terrorist-sponsoring countries provide US national security advice? Permalink 7:27 PM – 4 Jan 2017

@JAMyerson It can be easy to overstate the anti-anti-Assad case, but this look at western coverage of Aleppo strikes me as legit and reasonable.https://twitter.com/FAIRmediawatch/status/816692382116806656   Permalink 11:30 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Genuine [the book’s contents]https://twitter.com/khayutsefi/status/816699513494794240   Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) The HKM in Heb/Ar are associated with wisdom, HKM= to arbitrate. Here spoken Levantine still uses the original meaning “to medicate”. Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is it me or something pathological fighting Russia when armed state w/~7mil pop. beheads Americans,kills civilians in West & >10K nonSunnis? Permalink 7:40 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Philology dujour: Akkadian calls doctors Hakkamu,just as Levantine does 4200y later, medicate=Hakkam (Ar = Tabbab) pic.twitter.com/UF69JuEYKU Permalink 6:51 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@ZEEJLF Join @nntaleb as he discusses his multi-volume essay on uncertainty with writer & economist @davidmcw at Cox & Kings Charbagh at #ZEEJLF. pic.twitter.com/NiukpbnDvK Permalink 6:35 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@1rapidus He is not passing for intellectual. Kapish? Permalink 5:40 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb IYI Intellectual Yet Idiot struck a cord as it was obvious. *Intellectual Yet Philistine* is even worse. Idiot is ok, No Erudition is fatal Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Now that we are discovering how dumb the “elite” effectively is, plus IYI , they will never recover. Mystique gone.https://twitter.com/David_GISI/status/816444194805968896   Permalink 6:04 PM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Assembly in Aleppo: you can see visibly Western Syrians, incl. Sunnis, are Mediterraneans/S. Europeans, not Arabs. pic.twitter.com/5SLaFsQ7BS Permalink 11:36 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I used to hold Larry Summers in low respect. Today I hold him in negative respect: he magically gets things backwardhttps://twitter.com/LucasHahn1990/status/816353262320304128   Permalink 10:45 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb He gets it. It’s the mechanism, the process, not the idea.https://twitter.com/Mattrud/status/816353990141243394   Permalink 10:44 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@evil_SDOC Lentement, certains lèvent le voile sur la gde escroquerie qu’a été la couverture médiatique de la guerre en Syriehttp://www.marianne.net/syrie-victime-plus-credibilite-mediatique-100248961.html   Permalink 9:41 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Rothkopf @djrothkopf is a fraud; I said it to his face here on twitter. @PALE_Primate @outsh1ned @MusicityManager @GenFlynn Permalink 8:38 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Next week!https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/816033994508800000   Permalink 8:15 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I feel I do not have soul in the game when 1) cutting corners, 2) reading a classic in a different language than original. Like cheating. Permalink 6:24 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK, evidence of Seneca not far. @avisolo pic.twitter.com/FDKd5Z0CIi Permalink 6:17 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb IYI Economists as frauds: 1) compare themselves to pilots in complex self-organized system 2) their planes crashedhttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/815939523964243968   Permalink 12:35 PM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Resolution: to go full Lindy for 2017; set 2 shelves. #LindyEffect @OrodruinR pic.twitter.com/gz6xgRSdCA Permalink 10:35 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I use twitter as scratchpad for the Appendix of Skin in the Game @JakeNabel pic.twitter.com/AplAJ6rLve Permalink 8:14 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “L’émulation et la jalousie ne se rencontrent guère que dans les personnes du même art, de même talent et de même condition.” LB @JakeNabel Permalink 8:10 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shiites, like Christians, have a culture of martyrs; and they have a long, very long memory. Not good for KSAhttps://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/815923696506458112   Permalink 6:21 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “Econmsts praised Piketty’s “erudition” for citing J. Austen; the equivalent to praising the weighlifting of someone carrying a briefcase” Permalink 6:03 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Expanded the chapter on Dynamic Inequality & Envyhttps://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.70i1k3ari   Permalink 5:52 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb (cont) Inequality: Envy doesn’t travel geography and social classes pic.twitter.com/IHuX5uD6vc Permalink 5:46 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The notion “no-one is a prophet in his own land” originates in Aristotle’s Rhetoric. (Libanius,Autob.) #inequality pic.twitter.com/WGVbJak94z Permalink 5:26 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The more data people show you, the more suspicious & intellectually vigilant you should be. Added to Ineq. Chapter. pic.twitter.com/Fki4W2BqnU Permalink 3:57 PM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The proof can be redone graphically. The solution is in corners for the max, and center for min @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/QFmxEUIlMJ Permalink 3:27 PM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Happy 2017 everybody. Hope the new year delivers to you something you deserve but did not dare to wish for. Permalink 9:31 AM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Maybe I should be very worried. @trishankkarthik took my class & didn’t mention probability. Nor deadlifts.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/815310426586103808   Permalink 3:36 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Corrected typos & glad it passes the test of terrorism expert @MaxAbrahms pic.twitter.com/zINyihHzVw Permalink 2:17 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The author of the book is the boxer, high-flying adventurer, entrepreneur and mathematician @JustinWolfers @Caseyag1 Permalink 2:08 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener. Permalink 1:40 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb New Year Resolutions are in my “Commencement Address, AUB, 2016”https://medium.com/@nntaleb/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b#.17sca2q22   Permalink 1:03 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Ch 8 of Skin in the Game, or How to put the head of a horse in your enemy’s bed. Waiting for @MaxAbrahms to comment pic.twitter.com/I8vpZGXXHJ Permalink 11:50 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Redo everything from the ground up yourself. Never use computerized metrics unless you’ve derived them @sleuthstock Permalink 8:05 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 7) Year end 2016: my use of “boy” as over sign of disrespect (such as “Pinker boy”) https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20boy&src=typd   Permalink 6:57 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 6) Year end 2016: 2017 Resolution 1: Finish Skin in the Game. 2017 Resolution 2: Deadlift 420. 2017 Resolution 3… pic.twitter.com/cmPtWWHmGA Permalink 6:51 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Assuming 50% pr, (½)^{10} =1/1024 so decimal adj @CommonSense190 @ChateauEmissary Permalink 6:28 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 5) Year end 2016: My most read piece, Intellectual Yet Idiot, added PPS https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.2g4c64l2f   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3Q4CWogdKK”>  pic.twitter.com/3Q4CWogdKK Permalink 6:11 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Klueless: The N is not “small”. The probability of randomly getting 10 heads on 10 flips is Permalink 5:28 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Like this @moniker42 Which is a reason to block all journos from your twitter feed. pic.twitter.com/LNaK1QO9fo Permalink 5:13 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This idiot journo doesn’t realize that ALMOST ALL scientific papers are used with same sample size & higher pval.https://twitter.com/moniker42/status/815181276558852097   Permalink 5:12 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@J_Mareeswaran @nntaleb Obama used a law devised to fight Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan to fund Al-Qaeda in Syria. Now explain that. Permalink 2:22 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Beautiful recitation in the language of Christhttps://twitter.com/SYRIAC_MARONITE/status/814994491778236416   Permalink 5:14 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Two packages this PM pic.twitter.com/mIQUlH7xCr Permalink 2:51 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Near East (Mediterranean) and Middle East are different areas historically, ethnically, and culturally. @MattheWrite @EHSANI22 Permalink 2:20 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Hugh Kennedy has it completely wrong.The Arab penetration and Islamization of Syria were v. v. slow outside Damascushttps://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/814955122535124998   Permalink 2:05 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb That was my reaction to dialogue: – Why did Barack Hussain Obama betray the American public by financing AlQaeda? – Things are “complicated” Permalink 12:03 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb We asked Pinker Boy to back up his data & provide technical answers; his reply was *evasive* Englishmajor BS. pic.twitter.com/tkHaarn8DL Permalink 11:58 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Things are never complicated if one has principles. Permalink 11:36 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@GoldOverFiat “Only the autodidacts are free.” -@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/WvIBEFC50h Permalink 10:37 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 4) Year end 2016: Remember that Bloomberg is #FakeNews as @BV has not retracted & @Noahpinion… http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   Permalink 9:50 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3) Year end 2016 An antology of my squid ink episodes https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20squid%20OR%20ink&src=typd   Permalink 7:53 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Year end 2016: An antology of my twitter arguments as they often include “kapish”, “nonkapish” or “Mr.” https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20kapish%20OR%20nonkapish%20OR%20Mr.&src=typd   Permalink 7:52 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Year end 2016: A compilation of my philology tweets (Aramaic/Syriac, etc.) https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20syriac%20OR%20aramaic%20OR%20levantine&src=typd   Permalink 5:38 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Is computerized aid permissible? Used minimization under constraint @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/TZrQf7dwtY Permalink 5:24 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Hillary/Trump & Weightlifting;results are more significant (according to same norms) than 99% of published “science” pic.twitter.com/5qoWE7RTIa Permalink 3:38 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3-4 C later it was part of Babylon (Iraq), 5C later if was part of Persia (Iran), 2 C later it was part of …https://twitter.com/exjon/status/813923965299101696   Permalink 7:02 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb There is nothing empirical nor rigorous in use of psychoBS s.a. “Hedgehog/fox” outside of hunting. Kapish? @JackMcMackin Permalink 2:30 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This is almost right. Can do manually with some finessing. @carlfischer101 pic.twitter.com/NeLa2CQNfq Permalink 1:03 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Been getting that kind of BS since FBR “be nice to econs/bankers/journos” Wd being “nice” to the mafia change it?https://twitter.com/JackMcMackin/status/814570913697927168   Permalink 12:51 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb At gym: Asked weightlifters in basement if they voted Trump. 9 voted Trump, 1 Johnson. Upstairs, bourgeois floor (machines), 10/10 Hillary. Permalink 11:56 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I don’t like substance. I leave it to CNN. @FridaGhitis @BibekKafle12 Permalink 11:04 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I have discussed in The Black Swan 2nd ed. how Friedman & similar BS vendors got complexity backward. @BibekKafle12 @FridaGhitis Permalink 11:02 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Full body effort (sq/DL) at your 5 Max Rep (ALL muscles/bones challenged) switch gear via hormones or other. It’s informational. @gzibordi Permalink 11:01 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb While Friedman’s harmful ignorance isn’t curable, lack of jaw/neck definition can be slightly reduced by deadlifts.https://twitter.com/Slate/status/813812798660743168   Permalink 10:51 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Voila what our fearless group suspected is now getting confirmed!https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/814532154680082432   Permalink 10:29 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Was in Akkadian In Latin/Greek near but diff homonyms ≠ meaning In Semitic/Engl near homonyms often synonyms. @DeadLiftCapital @elie2222 Permalink 10:25 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Akkadian: darasu=> to pound. Syriac: both samekh Aramaic: samekh for one,shin other Arabic: both shin @elie2222 pic.twitter.com/nFmcHt8IOF Permalink 10:08 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Ammianus on the Syrian Rebels/ISIS: “People to have neither as friends nor as enemies”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/814457120628371457   Permalink 7:33 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Syrian author Ammianus Marcellinus describes the tribes of (now) East Syria: borders is along today’s Syrian war. pic.twitter.com/1pmIIC4Zey Permalink 5:04 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Convexity effects of rereading pic.twitter.com/t7QT5HIGgW Permalink 4:45 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nfergus More festive joy from the uncrowned king of Twitter: “Inequality and Skin in the Game” by @nntalebhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.bdw494r5a   Permalink 12:18 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb OK, solved (after some tinkering) @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/UhFkhUNSFk Permalink 5:39 PM – 28 Dec 2016

@joshfattore Markov Chains Explained Visually – This will help with Taleb’s piece. http://setosa.io/ev/markov-chains/   via @vicapow @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/813854886148374529   Permalink 4:40 PM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I challenge Gary Kasparov @Kasparov63 to spend a few days, even minutes, with the rebels. Otherwise he shd learn to keep his mouth shut.https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/813909779148111875   Permalink 8:53 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Wealth is not zero sum, inequality is by definition. @thoreau_devotee Permalink 6:45 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I added to the Inequality piece https://medium.com/@nntaleb/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.vhggmfpff   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qVELokYYji”>  pic.twitter.com/qVELokYYji Permalink 6:24 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Obama allowed bankers to have the LARGEST bonus pool in history, in 2010. Put interest rates at 0 for them.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/813938371550703616   Permalink 5:21 AM – 28 Dec 2016

First public debate with a trained debater.

First public debate with a trained debater.



Nassim Taleb, Larry Summers fight it out over too-big-to-fail. #SALT2014″Black Swan” author Nassim Taleb and former Treasury secretary and White House adviser Larry Summers wage an epic battle over too-big-to-fail…

via Facebook.

Taleb, Summers do battle over financial crisis | CNBC

The debate roared back and forth, with Summers pressing Taleb to go beyond enunciating what he thought was wrong and instead come up with a better solution than the one used to bring the financial system off the brink after Lehman Brothers failed.

“I’m for more capital, I’m for more liquidity, I’m for more pressure from the government to have proper risk models that recognize fat tails as part of our regulatory system,” Summers said. “I’m for stress testing that makes much more data available so that analysts outside of institutions can judge the risk. I’m for the development of living wills and procedures that if an institution fails it can be resolved.”

“I’m not for the government designing the compensation systems of financial institutions. I’m not for the government running financial institutions,” he said. “I’m for making them much more failure-proof and more safe for failure when they do fail. What are you for?”

Taleb advocated a system where banks are run more like utilities and excessive risk-taking is limited to hedge funds and investment banks.

“Let’s go back to when banks were boring and were utilities and were not taking too much risk with taxpayer money,” he said. “A utility should not be a casino. It’s a very simple point.”

via Taleb, Summers do battle over financial crisis.

Deep Read: Nassim Taleb (The Black Swan Guy) : Planet Money : NPR

by Jacob Goldstein

Here’s the latest Planet Money Deep Read — our occasional series of long-ish interviews with writers and thinkers.

Today, we hear from Nassim Taleb, the former Wall Street trader who published a book called the Black Swan back in 2007. The book was re-issued earlier this year, with a long new section called “On Robustness & Fragility.”

Listen to the Deep Read

[19 min 26 sec]

The book argues that most economic models fail because they don’t take into account rare, high-impact events that wind up driving history. (Taleb calls these events Black Swans.) The argument came out looking pretty good after the 2008 financial crisis.

The new section of the book includes, among other things, a prescription for withstanding a Black Swan.

The short version: Get rid of debt.