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Trump makes sense to a grocery store owner | The Hindu

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Where do you see the world moving now? Further right, or will it revert to the centre?

I don’t think it will go left or right, and I don’t know about the short term. But I think in the long term, the world can only survive if it lives like nature does. Many smaller units of governance, and a collection of super islands with some separation, quick decision-making, and visible implementation. Lots of Switzerlands, that’s what we need. What we need is not leaders, we don’t need them. We just need someone at the top who doesn’t mess the system up.

Kasparov, Friedman, Pinker Boy, Idiot Journo, Gym Voting, Summers, Lindy Effect, Stiglitz, Parag Khanna, Michiko Kakutani, Obama | Twitter

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@nntaleb Not just this idiot but MSM journos keeps calling “tyrant” a person who never ran a country. Minimum IQ required!https://twitter.com/ARoss2929/status/820430811241521153   Permalink 4:51 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And Sorry, poor unassisted and courageous Yemen, I keep forgetting.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/820422471887241216   Permalink 4:45 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 6) Obama allowed bankers to have the biggest bonus pool in history, in 2010, just after we bailed them out. Plus Geithner a rep of cronyK. Permalink 4:20 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Obama destroyed Michael Flynn’s career because he was opposed to covert policy of financing/training AlQaeda in Syria @mjb1286 Permalink 4:14 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@yaneerbaryam Tail risk decision-maker, protector of the system. The Prez is the risk manager not the risk creator. Permalink 4:11 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 5) Obama favored Jihadi headchoppers over secularists, financed AlQaeda, wrecked Lybia & Syria, decimated Christian communities. Shame! Permalink 4:08 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 4) Obama-novacaine left us with 10 trillion gov debt for 7-10 mil jobs and hugely increased fragility in the system. Permalink 4:04 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Basically “no scandal in his presidency” sums it all: for we didn’t elect an archbishop for sermons & lectures, but a decision-maker. Permalink 4:00 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) His legacy is an increased centralization in the most complex system we’ve seen, instead of exact opposite. Not the America I want. Permalink 3:58 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 1) My summary of Obama: He is the fellow who, when there is fire in the building, makes a great moving speech, then calls for advice. Permalink 3:56 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Dina Powell is a Copt. She is no “Arab” American; shameful on their part to use identity politics w/wrong identity. @EHSANI22 Permalink 3:43 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb PhilologyParadoxduJour. Levantine for man is zalmé/zolm, Syriac for small/weak; man in W. Semitic GVR, frm ~strong pic.twitter.com/PJOwRRFixH Permalink 9:26 AM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Fails to get that separation isn’t “populist” vs”technical” but Real World competence vs academic “tawk” @tylercowenhttp://bv.ms/2jevRhY   Permalink 7:48 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb You can tell at the arguments used if a person is a crypto-ISIS supporter. “We hate ISIS *but* first… “https://twitter.com/Pyrmha108/status/820062894679330816   Permalink 7:00 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Davos is the Intellectual Yet Idiots IYIs annual convention, joined w/the International Association of Name Droppershttps://twitter.com/linear911/status/820074029994258432   Permalink 6:42 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Great place for Apollo worshippershttps://twitter.com/g_exercitus/status/819993119173255168   Permalink 12:56 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Actually, I would say further, @CutTheKnotMath is the best educational math site on the internet! Permalink 8:58 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Went today to the Roman temple to honor Apollo & found it profanated with Santa Claus & Christmas decorations. pic.twitter.com/X3KTcVQQxE Permalink 8:45 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb From what I’ve noticed linguists don’t get co-linearity, make statistical fallacies @akhchronicles @siinjiim pic.twitter.com/NGjJOijCqL Permalink 7:48 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My first Follow Friday #FF is to @CutTheKnotMath. Follow his twitter math problems for edification, pleasure, or to kill time in airports! Permalink 7:38 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proving Levantine is not derived from Arabic leads to same for most other so-called “colloquial Arabic” dialects & “Arabism” to fall apart. Permalink 5:11 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shemesh is finally shining on the Southern slope of Mount Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/zBsLMqNwFf Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Voila, in Classical Syriac Baqara also cow @candela3paz pic.twitter.com/iZZ0E9Xvw6 Permalink 4:11 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “House”is “Beit”in Hebrew/Phoenician, Aramaic,& spoken Levantine (rboso), Bayt in Arabic. For idiotArab nationalists, it comes from Arabic. Permalink 3:02 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Today Snow in Mount Lebanon with ominous clouds (from my window). pic.twitter.com/yIhgfx5k7Y Permalink 2:46 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Words such as “syrup” or “sorbet” that come from Arabic actually have Aramaic roots SRB: parched (to offset) pic.twitter.com/uwnqqjgsXo Permalink 2:38 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Much of the similarities between Levantine & Arabic come from Aramaic loan words into Arabic, particularly religious ones @seize_the_dave Permalink 1:31 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Arab “nationalists” believe & spread the BS that pple in the Levant had NO language before the Arabs showed up. In fact it is the reverse. Permalink 1:28 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Finally, I consider an IQ test, rather “Intellectual Yet Idiot” test: IYIs are pro-GMOs for “scientific” reasons.https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.s8o3lvf46   Permalink 12:39 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Also 538 DOES NOT have a good Brier Score: You shd include ALL forecasts! @rpmiller4 @SamWangPhD pic.twitter.com/cpSzbelnS0 Permalink 12:29 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@rpmiller4 @DavisMets @SamWangPhD Brier score doesn’t cover tail risk. Would you use it for airplanes? Permalink 12:22 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Sam Wang who gave Trump <1% shd now know enough abt forecast errors to respect risk @DavisMets @SamWangPhD http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 12:13 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb LEvantine vocabulary, 80% of words used in conversation (Zipf). Very few words have Arabic origin (conflations). pic.twitter.com/eL1j8U1wZi Permalink 10:37 PM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Never trust a journalist except if she’s your mother. (Bed of Procrustes)https://twitter.com/diannawolfe13/status/819423309259481089   Permalink 10:00 PM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The prof doesn’t get it. Tenured profs are there to “pursue the truth” but to make a career. Amateurs pursue truth.http://wpo.st/zlyQ2   Permalink 9:50 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am certain I am not the only one to see Rex Tillerson as one day President of the United States.http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2017/01/11/tillerson-to-senate-sanctions-harm-american.html   Permalink 8:31 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@DrCirillo Last version of the paper with @nntaleb about operational risk and apparently infinite means: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2681006   A few typos corrected. Permalink 8:03 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@EHSANI22 Rex Tillerson explaining to senators Russian role in global order is like a Professor talking to …………. Permalink 7:49 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@iyad_elbaghdadi You contradict yourself. This is inconsistent w/your classification of Maltese as nonArabs from genes in spite of lang. Permalink 5:57 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am convinced that Michiko Kakutani is mentally ill. @michikokakutani pic.twitter.com/qn1wVTKgcn Permalink 5:49 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@denver_analyst “Inequality and Skin in the Game” — @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#—0-144.tvz4diwpr   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ewcaGWLIXS”>  pic.twitter.com/ewcaGWLIXS Permalink 5:22 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Justinian’s code: ~ 50 vol generally on symmetry in transactions! Many clauses originally Berytus. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/6Q6cSwbqLu Permalink 4:59 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Yes, illusion that ideas make it because of some methodological stamp, rather test of time via Lindy @BruBartonSinger @aeronlaffere Permalink 4:34 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I ban Huffington Post from publishing my material that is otherwise public to others.https://twitter.com/TankRizzo/status/819157902392967168   Permalink 4:29 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Malta speaks a Semitic language v. close to Levantine;but nobody insists it’s a “dialect of Arabic”. No ArabLeague.https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/819143770084085760   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Added more sections to my chapter on Lindy https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.u6g3y6ya1   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0KZcPnvg4S”>  pic.twitter.com/0KZcPnvg4S Permalink 3:40 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Reading Theodosius’ code looking for #SkinintheGame & symmetry in transaction. Sharia is too sophisticated to come from Arabia @hosain719 Permalink 1:57 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If @realDonaldTrump ate ice cream, Krugman wd criticize ice cream. If he ate apples,he wd criticize apples. This is info abt Krugman not DT. Permalink 12:50 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@RonPaulInstitut Where Was Meryl Streep When Obama Was Prosecuting Whistleblowers & Bombing Weddings? http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2017/january/10/where-was-meryl-streep-when-obama-was-prosecuting-whistleblowers-bombing-weddings/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rUBxrLfIdm”>  pic.twitter.com/rUBxrLfIdm Permalink 12:35 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Three stages of the Christmas cheese from M. Spitznagel’s goat farm. pic.twitter.com/OVfNpsxjEf Permalink 9:59 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Not racial: was Rome’s way to control Green-Card marriages. Legal liabilities more punishing for those marrying non citizens (“barbarians”) Permalink 7:29 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Interesting Fact du jour. Theodosius code:Marrying a Barbarian(“gentile”)=capital punishment. Rule made in Beirut. pic.twitter.com/GbpxzydE7w Permalink 5:28 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Added section to https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.ia7askabt   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mVwAvl3Yax”>  pic.twitter.com/mVwAvl3Yax Permalink 4:58 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@philmop Empirical vs Theoretic, Researchers vs Grandmothers, @nntaleb’s top piece on the deprostitutionalization of research http://bit.ly/2jy5VP9   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vO4UiWpv8F”>  pic.twitter.com/vO4UiWpv8F Permalink 3:00 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@NIRPUmbrella A smart PhD economist on his economic outlook after reading ‘The Black Swan’ by @nntaleb. #Complexity pic.twitter.com/xkxEIwZdX9 Permalink 4:21 PM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb It is as hard to fake indifference when you are interested as it is to fake interest when you are indifferent. Permalink 12:52 PM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb This is a more technical version of the problem of non constant Pareto \alpha https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.02369.pdf   @BrankoMilan Permalink 11:11 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My Amazon review of a real book on Foreign Affairs https://www.amazon.com/review/R1MPOC1YEX7D5R/ref=cm_cr_dp_title?ie=UTF8&ASIN=9351777596&channel=detail-glance&nodeID=283155&store=books   Permalink 10:41 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Do you realize this puts you –as a classicist — on top of the pyramid? @ArmandDAngour Permalink 9:45 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Parag Khanna’s ideas about technocracy, US, Singapore, Switz, & why we need smaller Washingtonhttp://wpo.st/I2UQ2   Permalink 6:32 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I just published “An Expert Called Lindy”https://medium.com/p/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf   Permalink 5:53 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Cannanite Shift @oldlevantine @lourou1981 You good; very good. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canaanite_shift   Permalink 4:44 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Stiglitz is the poifect reverse indicatorhttps://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/818251394817937408   Permalink 4:24 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@normonics Uncontrolled spreading of environmentally detrimental GMO — systemic risk!! http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pp2.pdf  http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2017/01/grass_seed_industry_fearful_ab.html   Permalink 3:09 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb #MathisBeautiful Fixed! @CutTheKnotMath @republicofmath pic.twitter.com/0ISJqe5OSg Permalink 10:53 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@DanielLMcAdams Does anyone believe Christmas would be celebrated in Aleppo if Washington’s jihadist head-choppers had “liberated” it?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/818088570623770625   Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb There were large Armenian quarters in Jerusalem, Aleppo, Alexandria BEFORE the Genocide, thanks to diff church didn’t integrate @TNinestein Permalink 7:45 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Reexplaining the Lindy Effect as well as why is free he who doesn’t care about his reputation. pic.twitter.com/H9w9dPYcQv Permalink 7:28 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Aleppo depended on Cilicia during Tigran’s dominance. @TNinestein pic.twitter.com/1NW4FLEpLQ Permalink 5:49 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Armenian Christmas in Aleppo. The Armenian comm. precedes the Arab conquest. Still there in spite of Hussain Obama https://twitter.com/ThierryMARIANI/status/818027631073492992   Permalink 5:34 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Ms Anya policygoonocrat @AnyaMartin8, pls find a SINGLE concept in my writing not backed up with rigorous technical formulation. Thanks you. Permalink 1:24 PM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A businessperson cares abt his reputation as it facilitates business, not as an end. For people who aren’t free, reputation is the end. Permalink 12:35 PM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 5 abstract & ill-defined words in 140chr: “strong” “vital partner””free” “dictatorship” i.e., can apply to anything.https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/817811092575584260   Permalink 11:30 AM – 7 Jan 2017

@elkement Bookmarked @nntaleb’s post on The New Artisan https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153860152453375   I read it whenever I feel to falter as a small business owner. Permalink 7:09 AM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/cYb1QTGudM Permalink 5:37 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Life isn’t about getting forecasts “right”; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it. Permalink 1:09 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb All talk. It is not people on twitter one shd impress, but the taxmanhttps://twitter.com/AnnPettifor/status/817405431702323200   Permalink 12:31 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shadi Hamid @shadihamid represents the interests of the funders of AlQeda. Much worse than neocon. @FedUpCitizen_ Permalink 11:16 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And I forgot to add the Copts who deserve our attention the most!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/817409792406855680   Permalink 11:11 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb To my Armenian and Russian Orthodox friends, Merry Christmas! Permalink 8:37 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proof that entropy under 2nd law leads to thin tails,or why Pinker is a charlatan @sapinker @yaneerbaryam pic.twitter.com/KEmdqFg61J Permalink 7:17 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Nobody is noticing: the entropy error by Pinker boy @sapinker is precisely what leads pple to believe in thintails everywhere. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Syria is the victim of “hotel journalism”: war correspondents clustering in Beirut, far from Aleppo. TBS, 10y ago: pic.twitter.com/pV8zLUybkv Permalink 4:30 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is it me or there is something wrong with Steven Pinker @sapinker pronouncements on scientific topics? @yaneerbaryamhttps://medium.com/@yaneerbaryam/brief-comment-on-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics-in-human-affairs-885105dc8419?source=twitterShare-f138bf5466fe-1483664469   Permalink 5:02 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@dnlmc @nntaleb Ben Franklin on IYIs (from https://twitter.com/dnlmc/status/810331163797712896  ) ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uW9ho5Zywp”>  pic.twitter.com/uW9ho5Zywp Permalink 4:07 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I’ve learned more tricks & heuristics from Rory than I’ve learned from all other English speaking humans.https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/817059502944112640   Permalink 1:37 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The usual illustration confirming Math is Beautiful @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/jKsLrjWlm4 Permalink 12:37 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb They live in Washington DC @digvijoy_c @MaxAbrahms Permalink 12:16 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The Babylonian root is shitpu, ashaptu, ashabu, etc.: surge in fire; looking for Ugaritic @asadabukhalil @lourou1981 pic.twitter.com/esBeT7AnRd Permalink 11:24 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@leithfadel Hi @ABarnardNYT – Why did you leave out the part where Kerry says the US used ISIS to pressure Assad to negotiate?http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/30/world/middleeast/john-kerry-syria-audio.html   Permalink 11:06 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If you want to make sure someone never misses your tweets, block him. Permalink 9:38 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@elliotsanchez @nntaleb Guidelines were wrong for years, we should introduce stressors early for 80% less allergies. Shocked http://www.cbsnews.com/news/peanut-allergies-new-guidelines-for-parents-children/   Permalink 8:07 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shob is in Syriac, apparently not in Arabic @lourou1981 pic.twitter.com/rw96tu221b Permalink 4:38 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@anishraju As always, @nntaleb stays ever relevant. In 2017, subtract unhappiness instead of adding happiness. pic.twitter.com/mw037RwTfj Permalink 3:06 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@MaxAbrahms Do you find it troubling when think tanks that get foreign funding from terrorist-sponsoring countries provide US national security advice? Permalink 7:27 PM – 4 Jan 2017

@JAMyerson It can be easy to overstate the anti-anti-Assad case, but this look at western coverage of Aleppo strikes me as legit and reasonable.https://twitter.com/FAIRmediawatch/status/816692382116806656   Permalink 11:30 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Genuine [the book’s contents]https://twitter.com/khayutsefi/status/816699513494794240   Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) The HKM in Heb/Ar are associated with wisdom, HKM= to arbitrate. Here spoken Levantine still uses the original meaning “to medicate”. Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is it me or something pathological fighting Russia when armed state w/~7mil pop. beheads Americans,kills civilians in West & >10K nonSunnis? Permalink 7:40 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Philology dujour: Akkadian calls doctors Hakkamu,just as Levantine does 4200y later, medicate=Hakkam (Ar = Tabbab) pic.twitter.com/UF69JuEYKU Permalink 6:51 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@ZEEJLF Join @nntaleb as he discusses his multi-volume essay on uncertainty with writer & economist @davidmcw at Cox & Kings Charbagh at #ZEEJLF. pic.twitter.com/NiukpbnDvK Permalink 6:35 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@1rapidus He is not passing for intellectual. Kapish? Permalink 5:40 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb IYI Intellectual Yet Idiot struck a cord as it was obvious. *Intellectual Yet Philistine* is even worse. Idiot is ok, No Erudition is fatal Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Now that we are discovering how dumb the “elite” effectively is, plus IYI , they will never recover. Mystique gone.https://twitter.com/David_GISI/status/816444194805968896   Permalink 6:04 PM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Assembly in Aleppo: you can see visibly Western Syrians, incl. Sunnis, are Mediterraneans/S. Europeans, not Arabs. pic.twitter.com/5SLaFsQ7BS Permalink 11:36 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I used to hold Larry Summers in low respect. Today I hold him in negative respect: he magically gets things backwardhttps://twitter.com/LucasHahn1990/status/816353262320304128   Permalink 10:45 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb He gets it. It’s the mechanism, the process, not the idea.https://twitter.com/Mattrud/status/816353990141243394   Permalink 10:44 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@evil_SDOC Lentement, certains lèvent le voile sur la gde escroquerie qu’a été la couverture médiatique de la guerre en Syriehttp://www.marianne.net/syrie-victime-plus-credibilite-mediatique-100248961.html   Permalink 9:41 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Rothkopf @djrothkopf is a fraud; I said it to his face here on twitter. @PALE_Primate @outsh1ned @MusicityManager @GenFlynn Permalink 8:38 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Next week!https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/816033994508800000   Permalink 8:15 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I feel I do not have soul in the game when 1) cutting corners, 2) reading a classic in a different language than original. Like cheating. Permalink 6:24 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK, evidence of Seneca not far. @avisolo pic.twitter.com/FDKd5Z0CIi Permalink 6:17 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb IYI Economists as frauds: 1) compare themselves to pilots in complex self-organized system 2) their planes crashedhttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/815939523964243968   Permalink 12:35 PM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Resolution: to go full Lindy for 2017; set 2 shelves. #LindyEffect @OrodruinR pic.twitter.com/gz6xgRSdCA Permalink 10:35 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I use twitter as scratchpad for the Appendix of Skin in the Game @JakeNabel pic.twitter.com/AplAJ6rLve Permalink 8:14 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “L’émulation et la jalousie ne se rencontrent guère que dans les personnes du même art, de même talent et de même condition.” LB @JakeNabel Permalink 8:10 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shiites, like Christians, have a culture of martyrs; and they have a long, very long memory. Not good for KSAhttps://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/815923696506458112   Permalink 6:21 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “Econmsts praised Piketty’s “erudition” for citing J. Austen; the equivalent to praising the weighlifting of someone carrying a briefcase” Permalink 6:03 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Expanded the chapter on Dynamic Inequality & Envyhttps://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.70i1k3ari   Permalink 5:52 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb (cont) Inequality: Envy doesn’t travel geography and social classes pic.twitter.com/IHuX5uD6vc Permalink 5:46 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The notion “no-one is a prophet in his own land” originates in Aristotle’s Rhetoric. (Libanius,Autob.) #inequality pic.twitter.com/WGVbJak94z Permalink 5:26 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The more data people show you, the more suspicious & intellectually vigilant you should be. Added to Ineq. Chapter. pic.twitter.com/Fki4W2BqnU Permalink 3:57 PM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The proof can be redone graphically. The solution is in corners for the max, and center for min @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/QFmxEUIlMJ Permalink 3:27 PM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Happy 2017 everybody. Hope the new year delivers to you something you deserve but did not dare to wish for. Permalink 9:31 AM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Maybe I should be very worried. @trishankkarthik took my class & didn’t mention probability. Nor deadlifts.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/815310426586103808   Permalink 3:36 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Corrected typos & glad it passes the test of terrorism expert @MaxAbrahms pic.twitter.com/zINyihHzVw Permalink 2:17 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The author of the book is the boxer, high-flying adventurer, entrepreneur and mathematician @JustinWolfers @Caseyag1 Permalink 2:08 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener. Permalink 1:40 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb New Year Resolutions are in my “Commencement Address, AUB, 2016”https://medium.com/@nntaleb/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b#.17sca2q22   Permalink 1:03 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Ch 8 of Skin in the Game, or How to put the head of a horse in your enemy’s bed. Waiting for @MaxAbrahms to comment pic.twitter.com/I8vpZGXXHJ Permalink 11:50 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Redo everything from the ground up yourself. Never use computerized metrics unless you’ve derived them @sleuthstock Permalink 8:05 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 7) Year end 2016: my use of “boy” as over sign of disrespect (such as “Pinker boy”) https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20boy&src=typd   Permalink 6:57 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 6) Year end 2016: 2017 Resolution 1: Finish Skin in the Game. 2017 Resolution 2: Deadlift 420. 2017 Resolution 3… pic.twitter.com/cmPtWWHmGA Permalink 6:51 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Assuming 50% pr, (½)^{10} =1/1024 so decimal adj @CommonSense190 @ChateauEmissary Permalink 6:28 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 5) Year end 2016: My most read piece, Intellectual Yet Idiot, added PPS https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.2g4c64l2f   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3Q4CWogdKK”>  pic.twitter.com/3Q4CWogdKK Permalink 6:11 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Klueless: The N is not “small”. The probability of randomly getting 10 heads on 10 flips is Permalink 5:28 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Like this @moniker42 Which is a reason to block all journos from your twitter feed. pic.twitter.com/LNaK1QO9fo Permalink 5:13 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This idiot journo doesn’t realize that ALMOST ALL scientific papers are used with same sample size & higher pval.https://twitter.com/moniker42/status/815181276558852097   Permalink 5:12 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@J_Mareeswaran @nntaleb Obama used a law devised to fight Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan to fund Al-Qaeda in Syria. Now explain that. Permalink 2:22 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Beautiful recitation in the language of Christhttps://twitter.com/SYRIAC_MARONITE/status/814994491778236416   Permalink 5:14 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Two packages this PM pic.twitter.com/mIQUlH7xCr Permalink 2:51 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Near East (Mediterranean) and Middle East are different areas historically, ethnically, and culturally. @MattheWrite @EHSANI22 Permalink 2:20 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Hugh Kennedy has it completely wrong.The Arab penetration and Islamization of Syria were v. v. slow outside Damascushttps://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/814955122535124998   Permalink 2:05 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb That was my reaction to dialogue: – Why did Barack Hussain Obama betray the American public by financing AlQaeda? – Things are “complicated” Permalink 12:03 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb We asked Pinker Boy to back up his data & provide technical answers; his reply was *evasive* Englishmajor BS. pic.twitter.com/tkHaarn8DL Permalink 11:58 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Things are never complicated if one has principles. Permalink 11:36 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@GoldOverFiat “Only the autodidacts are free.” -@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/WvIBEFC50h Permalink 10:37 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 4) Year end 2016: Remember that Bloomberg is #FakeNews as @BV has not retracted & @Noahpinion… http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   Permalink 9:50 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3) Year end 2016 An antology of my squid ink episodes https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20squid%20OR%20ink&src=typd   Permalink 7:53 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Year end 2016: An antology of my twitter arguments as they often include “kapish”, “nonkapish” or “Mr.” https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20kapish%20OR%20nonkapish%20OR%20Mr.&src=typd   Permalink 7:52 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Year end 2016: A compilation of my philology tweets (Aramaic/Syriac, etc.) https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20syriac%20OR%20aramaic%20OR%20levantine&src=typd   Permalink 5:38 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Is computerized aid permissible? Used minimization under constraint @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/TZrQf7dwtY Permalink 5:24 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Hillary/Trump & Weightlifting;results are more significant (according to same norms) than 99% of published “science” pic.twitter.com/5qoWE7RTIa Permalink 3:38 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3-4 C later it was part of Babylon (Iraq), 5C later if was part of Persia (Iran), 2 C later it was part of …https://twitter.com/exjon/status/813923965299101696   Permalink 7:02 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb There is nothing empirical nor rigorous in use of psychoBS s.a. “Hedgehog/fox” outside of hunting. Kapish? @JackMcMackin Permalink 2:30 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This is almost right. Can do manually with some finessing. @carlfischer101 pic.twitter.com/NeLa2CQNfq Permalink 1:03 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Been getting that kind of BS since FBR “be nice to econs/bankers/journos” Wd being “nice” to the mafia change it?https://twitter.com/JackMcMackin/status/814570913697927168   Permalink 12:51 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb At gym: Asked weightlifters in basement if they voted Trump. 9 voted Trump, 1 Johnson. Upstairs, bourgeois floor (machines), 10/10 Hillary. Permalink 11:56 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I don’t like substance. I leave it to CNN. @FridaGhitis @BibekKafle12 Permalink 11:04 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I have discussed in The Black Swan 2nd ed. how Friedman & similar BS vendors got complexity backward. @BibekKafle12 @FridaGhitis Permalink 11:02 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Full body effort (sq/DL) at your 5 Max Rep (ALL muscles/bones challenged) switch gear via hormones or other. It’s informational. @gzibordi Permalink 11:01 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb While Friedman’s harmful ignorance isn’t curable, lack of jaw/neck definition can be slightly reduced by deadlifts.https://twitter.com/Slate/status/813812798660743168   Permalink 10:51 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Voila what our fearless group suspected is now getting confirmed!https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/814532154680082432   Permalink 10:29 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Was in Akkadian In Latin/Greek near but diff homonyms ≠ meaning In Semitic/Engl near homonyms often synonyms. @DeadLiftCapital @elie2222 Permalink 10:25 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Akkadian: darasu=> to pound. Syriac: both samekh Aramaic: samekh for one,shin other Arabic: both shin @elie2222 pic.twitter.com/nFmcHt8IOF Permalink 10:08 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Ammianus on the Syrian Rebels/ISIS: “People to have neither as friends nor as enemies”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/814457120628371457   Permalink 7:33 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Syrian author Ammianus Marcellinus describes the tribes of (now) East Syria: borders is along today’s Syrian war. pic.twitter.com/1pmIIC4Zey Permalink 5:04 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Convexity effects of rereading pic.twitter.com/t7QT5HIGgW Permalink 4:45 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nfergus More festive joy from the uncrowned king of Twitter: “Inequality and Skin in the Game” by @nntalebhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.bdw494r5a   Permalink 12:18 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb OK, solved (after some tinkering) @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/UhFkhUNSFk Permalink 5:39 PM – 28 Dec 2016

@joshfattore Markov Chains Explained Visually – This will help with Taleb’s piece. http://setosa.io/ev/markov-chains/   via @vicapow @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/813854886148374529   Permalink 4:40 PM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I challenge Gary Kasparov @Kasparov63 to spend a few days, even minutes, with the rebels. Otherwise he shd learn to keep his mouth shut.https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/813909779148111875   Permalink 8:53 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Wealth is not zero sum, inequality is by definition. @thoreau_devotee Permalink 6:45 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I added to the Inequality piece https://medium.com/@nntaleb/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.vhggmfpff   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qVELokYYji”>  pic.twitter.com/qVELokYYji Permalink 6:24 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Obama allowed bankers to have the LARGEST bonus pool in history, in 2010. Put interest rates at 0 for them.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/813938371550703616   Permalink 5:21 AM – 28 Dec 2016

Syria, Shias, Monsanto, Putin, Obama, Arab Bullshit, Thaler |Twitter

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@nntaleb 2/ Sharmine Narwani @snarwani has done some work on Syria. Hama casualties <5% of what was reported. More soonhttps://mideastshuffle.com/2013/02/22/the-dirty-numbers-game-in-syria/   Permalink 1:58 PM – 22 Nov 2016

@RiskMinds Watch @nntaleb live on 7th Dec for FREE! “Your grandmother’s intuitions abt #tailrisk is right”. Register here http://spr.ly/60118GLAV   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mGPrXkjgda”>  pic.twitter.com/mGPrXkjgda Permalink 12:00 PM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Trust none of what you hear, half of what you read, most of what you see.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.s5ge5ilqw   Permalink 6:58 AM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine Philology du Jour: Possi cenam stabis aut passus mille meabis => تغدا و تمدا ، تعشا و تمشا Permalink 4:57 AM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I just published “Syria and the Statistics of War”https://medium.com/p/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd   Permalink 4:15 AM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 4) Since Obama took office # of Christians in Syria/Mesopotamia down by 60-80%. Many still speak the lang of Christ, ethnically cleansed. Permalink 3:26 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb For those who still don’t know that Pinker’s theory on drop in violence is BS. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say   @BlueAnt2014 Permalink 3:10 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Cognitive biases are psycholobullshit, unless mentioned in ancient lit #lindyeffect @CAM_SMlTH @Alex_Walshy @seanmcarroll @ValaAfshar Permalink 2:45 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb It is called fooled by randomness. This is *exactly* mistaking probability for certainty. @Alex_Walshy @seanmcarroll @ValaAfshar Permalink 2:35 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Shias share with (Orthodox) Christians the notion of self sacrifice in pilgrimage. #skininthegame no cheap signalinghttps://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/800772465907666944   Permalink 11:38 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I can vouch: Monsanto tried to make life miserable but they hired PR imbeciles who didn’t know I was independent.https://twitter.com/food_democracy/status/800741851456098304   Permalink 8:46 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2021 @filipeteles Permalink 6:12 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You will never convince someone that he is wrong. Survival does. Prologue of #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/Ouu4BFV585 Permalink 5:59 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nassim ‘Black Swan’ Taleb Sums Up Obama’s Legacy In 3 Painfully “Real” Tweets | Zero Hedgehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-20/nassim-black-swan-taleb-sums-obamas-legacy-3-painfully-real-tweets   Permalink 3:41 PM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Saif leave that poor Thaler boy to his mourning. He won’t be able to control others for a while, may this lifetime. @saifedean @R_Thaler Permalink 10:46 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Well, I don’t trust Syria numbers, particularly after this story of the “hospitals” in E. Aleppo. pic.twitter.com/y7SG9wlNYy Permalink 8:54 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The same imbeciles who calculated scientifically that Trump had <2-10% chance chance of winning think GMOs are safe. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 8:16 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Spending additional 1 T on infrastructure may get us something other than novacaine to show for it. Obama spent it on salaries @MudsharkOX Permalink 4:01 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 3) Don’t fughet Obama is leaving us a Ponzi scheme, added ~8 trillions in debt with rates at 0. If they rise, costs of deficit explode… Permalink 3:32 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Idiotic (IYI) journos are trying to make us believe Putin is fighting Mother Theresa in Syria, not the AlQaeda of Sept 11. @BenteScheller Permalink 3:28 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The conflation of science and scientism.https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/800296599314370560   Permalink 3:16 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) (Cont) But in the end what Obama did that is unforgivable is increasing centralization in a complex system. Permalink 3:50 PM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Obama: Protected banksters (largest bonus pool in 2010) “Helped” Libya Served AlQaeda/SaudiBarbaria(Syria & Yemen)https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/800104636594192384   Permalink 3:33 PM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb For anyone who needs to know. @charles_lister is a paid Salafi apologist/propagandist at @MiddleEastInst and AlQaeda promoter.https://twitter.com/kenanrahmani/status/799338345948188672   Permalink 11:50 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Libertarianism and Julian the Apostate. pic.twitter.com/HV8yVWdzPl Permalink 10:54 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The only way to understand Aleppo is to call someone in North Syria. All the rest is suspicious Salafi propaganda.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/799883376937340929   Permalink 8:31 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb No, it is not “racist” to resist intolerant minorities, no, no, no!https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.7fh4kzqs1   Permalink 7:27 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@ashuduttmarkets Fucking idiot, why don’t you unfollow and find someone else who wants your instruction on what to write about? Permalink 6:55 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Tragedy of Syrian Christians: promoted Arabism to secularize away from Islam, instead of Greco-Roman-Aramaic past. pic.twitter.com/holXWYCbzj Permalink 6:47 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb How Fat Tony got rich betting against charlatans like @JustinWolfers (Green Lumber Fallacy chapter in #Antifragile) pic.twitter.com/gNAOVsDREI Permalink 5:46 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Funny pple don’t realize @loveconcursall “Lara Stuart-Müller” frm Zurich is in fact a fat male bearded ISIS operative @ThePorcie @wootwoo3 Permalink 6:08 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@loveconcursall Please explain the “lie” in a historical fact. They don’t have someone smarter to represent the Syrian opposition? Permalink 3:40 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Pple in the BS-vending business BS even more when it becomes too obvious they’re in the BS business #noskininthegamehttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/799712650674388993   Permalink 3:18 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The Russians rang the bells of the Mar Georgios Greek Orthodox Cathedral. People remember. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_George_Greek_Orthodox_Cathedral  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/799744116586348545   Permalink 2:50 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb First time church bells were heard in Beirut under Ottomans was in 1773 when the Russian fleet came. To understand Putin in Syria & support. Permalink 2:40 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Medawar (round in Levantine) seems to come from Aramaic (Arabic: mustadir). @zaliin Permalink 2:14 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I can’t wear a cross in Saudi Arabia. Apostates are executed. I am not going to cry for you yet. @Quran_Chart @asadabukhalil Permalink 1:42 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb “Bigotry” against Arab states when they treat non-Sunnis like deviants? This is called “Arab Bullshit” @tomazy_m @leithfadel @asadabukhalil Permalink 1:20 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@sterndavidi 2000 out of 1.3 million Moroccan Jews! Permalink 1:19 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb US State dept estimate of Jews in Iran is ~ 20-25K @EliCash22 @asadabukhalil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Jews   Permalink 1:09 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb This is true. Note Iran still has 25,000 Jews. Arab countries have practically none left.https://twitter.com/asadabukhalil/status/799714208690491392   Permalink 1:05 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Presenting Medical summary paper on Antifragility Nov 28 at the U of Pennsylvania School of Medicine. Paper: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/medicine.pdf   Permalink 11:31 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Cannot hide my Schadenfreude watching @R_Thaler panic attacks -& nudgers who banked on Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison to manipulate citizens.https://twitter.com/r_thaler/status/799405867691077632   Permalink 9:19 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb UK universities ban newspapers on campus,yet allow Salafi propaganda. Anyone ag. Salafis becomes “Islamophobe”. Boycott UK universities? Permalink 5:04 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb x=y != z in the right side corridor @CutTheKnotMath @mikeandallie pic.twitter.com/pZBOhqZrcG Permalink 2:45 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After last nomination I feel that my dream of seeing Saudi/Qatari royals in Guantanamo getting close…All my betes noires are falling now! Permalink 6:25 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du jour: Kfar (kafr) and Dar (dor) relate to “round”. Dar also village/house. Dar & Medawar => same root. pic.twitter.com/IqidB3sUV7 Permalink 5:56 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@mikeandallie @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb was able to print the shape and will use it for a project with my kids tonight. Thanks for sharing your work. pic.twitter.com/uNip1bykoQ Permalink 5:05 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb A clear explanation of my problem with 538 probabilities.https://hedgefundsmarts.wordpress.com/2016/11/17/smoke-gets-in-your-eyes-clinton-landslide-and-other-pipe-dreams/   Permalink 2:54 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb John Bolton needs to be put in a psychiatric asylum. The very problem of Iran w/West is a regime change (Mosadegh).https://twitter.com/jessicaschulb/status/799380410362904576   Permalink 2:51 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb One leg of the octopus @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/tcT67IMYIq Permalink 12:42 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After the fact some people think they got it.https://twitter.com/ejnbo/status/799346863065341952   Permalink 12:28 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb A better perspective on a Mandelbrotian Octopus @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/ytIYwVxGL9 Permalink 10:38 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The first idiot to fire from the State Department. But from my experience replacing all the staff is necessary.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/799193394761400320   Permalink 10:06 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You get a beautiful Mandelbrotian mathematical object at the “nugget”, worth exploring. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/mNceojHgDK Permalink 9:14 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The IYI Class slowing realizing that everything they know turned out to be fiction, as in Candid Camera. pic.twitter.com/TaoffZ7qsi Permalink 4:44 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@byzantinepower The more you learn about Byzantium the more you learn how acutely the Syriac genius inflected its character. The West lost that spark. Permalink 4:24 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 8 days after about everything the IYI class (forecasters, journos, pol “scientists”, Pinker) knows fell apart; starting to realize what… Permalink 4:23 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Donaldo considering Nikki Haley, an Indian Sikh woman is a stroke of genius! @realDonaldTrump Permalink 3:21 PM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The saying “silence is gold” applies only to fools. Permalink 1:29 PM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Gibbon on Syrian (Greeks) fashion-obsessions & “contempt for female modesty”. Fashion week in Laodicea(Latakia) now! pic.twitter.com/cwWiF7BMmG Permalink 12:58 PM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Sweet vindication: publisher said sales of electronics books down 17-30% pending on genre vs real books. #lindyeffect at work Permalink 11:37 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@RandPaul “I can’t support anybody to be our secretary of state who didn’t learn the lesson of the Iraq War,”http://reason.com/blog/2016/11/15/interview-with-rand-paul-i-cant-support   Permalink 6:08 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb How to get rid of intruders who bug you for selfies. pic.twitter.com/MbHVml3fwl Permalink 5:46 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) Turned out that @yaneerbaryam has used a version of Simpson’s Paradox to debunk math of the Selfish Gene by entertainer @RichardDawkins Permalink 4:33 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The same people who complain that we only had 2 “bad” choices in election also complained abt my ethics of voting for 3rd party. #IYI Permalink 4:04 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After Pinker gets elementary statistical significance (if),we’ll teach him Simpson’s Paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox  https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/798351010544566272   Permalink 2:33 PM – 15 Nov 2016

@RomKoziol @nntaleb You reach a point when you have had enough of the BS, the hype, the gurus, the new age stuff, etc. and you say it like it is. Permalink 2:25 PM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Doesn’t look good. @TimHarford @obradovits1 Permalink 11:27 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Paula, @schmittpaula Nice surprise to get this in my feed. I will order them immediately! Permalink 7:56 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Did you read Antifragile, Yes/No? @TimHarford @obradovits1 Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Also a lot of people in NY who voted Johnson would have voted Trump. @neilchriss Permalink 5:57 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After that, sign the petition to allow S. Pinker’s to wave statistical significance in work on drop in violence.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/798351010544566272   Permalink 5:50 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Ask @TimHarford. In my copy, he did not acknowledge anything. @malikbarak Permalink 5:34 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Well… as it turned out I’ve taken a look at the former. @limawort @PoliticsProse @TimHarford @FearNoTrieb Permalink 5:22 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Hence the “populist” dislike of IYI is ingrained is about all languages. @MarcosCarreira @stan_yurin Permalink 5:21 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Any idea of diff betw “The Power of Disorder to Transform our Lives”& “Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder”?https://twitter.com/PoliticsProse/status/798189353415491585   Permalink 5:18 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Friends, looking for info on how many read an Op-Ed in NYT if total circulation is, say 1mil. 90k? What’s typical hits of OpE on Bloomberg? Permalink 4:32 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb To whoever translated this: “fatphobia” is fear of dietary fat, not “gordofobia” (overweight)! #traduttoretradittorehttps://twitter.com/griverom/status/798479605271318528   Permalink 3:13 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 3) This, given the presumption Aristotle was translated into Arabic not from the Greek, but from the Aramaic-Syriac. [Evidence for Galen] Permalink 2:59 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) Is Levantine is the only language in which the term “philosopher” is derogatory? To bullshit (produce non solid verbiage) = “tfalsaf” Permalink 2:56 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du Jour: Discovered that “Intellectual Yet Idiot” translates into Levantine as… “philosopher” (faylasouf!)https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.dpt9b52xo   Permalink 2:54 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The Intellctual Yet Idiot (IYI) article is spreading into the languages IYIs speak.http://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/aktuell/nassim-nicholas-taleb-die-wohlwissenden-ld.128349   Permalink 2:44 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I am not often angry (saliency), but why WTF do readers expect authors to write motivational messages on twitter?https://twitter.com/WriteWthCourage/status/798260310285185024   Permalink 2:51 PM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The best so far! @robert_wehttps://twitter.com/robert_we/status/798258175946457093   Permalink 12:31 PM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 4- The Lesson of 2016 is that it took social media (not a “free” press) to take universal suffrage to its natural conclusion. Permalink 9:31 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Let’s model a random Congress composed of citizens. It shd best represent the population by LLN. See Pluchino etal. @normonics @yaneerbaryam Permalink 8:17 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb In Complex Systems Terms: Populism: bottom-up spontaneous-order participation NonPopulism “democracy”: hierarchical & constrained choices Permalink 7:58 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Finally converging to becoming the author of a single book: the INCERTO is out tomorrow.https://www.amazon.com/dp/0399590455/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_x_qiCkybRNATJZ8   Permalink 6:13 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb When you risk other people’s lives for “ideas” w/o paying the price & w/o being apologetic, #skininthegame. Kapish? @geor97 @BillKristol Permalink 6:02 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I hope this scum @BillKristol is forced to settle in Iraq, & risks beheading by ISIS. Scum, scum, scum.https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/798153276092981248   Permalink 5:46 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Populism: democratic participation by the uneducated population when conflicts w/that of the miseducated one. Works?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/797964184956891136   Permalink 2:29 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Thank you @kilkenomics !!!https://twitter.com/mdvex/status/798076026622451712   Permalink 12:39 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot I said “rigorous” not political science. @dandrezner Permalink 5:04 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I am still looking for someone to give a rigorous explanation/explanation of difference between populism & democracy. Nothing yet. Permalink 4:47 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Graphical view of the problem: >1 except in a tiny nugget around {0,0,0} @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/ULkgMsX61Z Permalink 3:48 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Graphical view of the problem: >1 except in a tiny nugget around {0,0,0} @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/ULkgMsX61Z Permalink 3:48 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb No idiot the NYT gave legitimacy to the Iraq incasion @John_F_Donnelly @kilkenomics Permalink 1:41 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Let us not forget that the NYT was largely responsible for the Iraq mess. Includes pundits like Thomas Friedmam @kilkenomics Permalink 1:16 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@kilkenomics “A vote for #Brexit is a vote for complex systems” – @nntaleb #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com/BoPIfGLR8r Permalink 6:03 AM – 13 Nov 2016

@kilkenomics “A vote for #Brexit is a vote for complex systems” – @nntaleb #kilkenomics pic.twitter.com/BoPIfGLR8r Permalink 6:03 AM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Rituals are the music of life. Permalink 1:43 PM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I told Politico to get lost for that “Black Swan” article. @SamWahlenpic.twitter.com/yUUniDRn0y Permalink 10:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I told Politico to get lost for that “Black Swan” article. @SamWahlen pic.twitter.com/yUUniDRn0y Permalink 10:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The IYI didn’t get that censoring pple w/unfair tags “racist”,”sexist”,”schlongist” doesn’t work unless they also censor in the voting booth Permalink 8:42 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Reaction of @FiveThirtyEight same as cowardly traders who unexpectedly blow up, blame mkts, God, Mars… Accept bad probabilistic reasoning! Permalink 8:27 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Errors of @FiveThirtyEight et al. in “UPDATING” probabilities that shd be around .5/ noise https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/binary%20forecasting%20538.nb.pdf   pic.twitter.com/jcZccHsr63 Permalink 8:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Indeed Salibi is largely unreliable; Syria’s Islamization was very slow from minority rule. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.wrrhkreke  https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/797444295053680640   Permalink 6:57 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Deirdre Mc and Rory S discussing skin in the game. How Hillary shd be ambassador to Lybia.https://twitter.com/cravenpartners/status/797414016352194560   Permalink 5:15 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@CarolineKirrane .@rorysutherland delighted with his birthday cake! He got a rousing rendition of happy birthday from the crowd here at #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com/hNFiWMlWUo Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@CarolineKirrane .@rorysutherland delighted with his birthday cake! He got a rousing rendition of happy birthday from the crowd here at #kilkenomics pic.twitter.com/hNFiWMlWUo Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@ThomBarry Nassim. Interesting that rulers in the past usually went into battle. A Roman emperor was captured and turned into a stool! #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com/4363uss8k1 Permalink 4:42 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@kilkenomics Deirdre @PrudentiaMag shares that she was born ‘Donald’ which, apparently in Irish means ‘world leader’. (Don’t tell Trump!)pic.twitter.com/zFzOrq217X Permalink 4:27 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb My point was that it was 50% @EconomicTimes Permalink 4:49 PM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Highly exaggerated Who called it right for Donald Trump? A professor, a filmmaker & Nassim Nicholas Talebhttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/who-called-it-right-for-donald-trump-a-professor-a-filmmaker-and-nassim-nicholas-taleb/articleshow/55379214.cms   Permalink 2:36 PM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The ricochet from demonizing Trump by Hillarists & idiotic media: all he has to do now is be half the monster they portrayed. #Antifragile Permalink 2:34 PM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The verdict is that @Charles_Lister from @MiddleEastInst should be tagged as a paid promoter of Jihadi terrorism. On his employer… later Permalink 6:09 AM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Excellent term, “sciolus”, ancien equivalent to “scientism”. Also philosophaster, bullshit artist, or just “Pinker”.https://twitter.com/atomasevic/status/797028412695203840   Permalink 3:04 AM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Why did Obama turn on AlQaeda now? Because Hillary is out of the way? Very strange.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/796850098839941120   Permalink 5:24 PM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb It is hard to find a plumber, baker, janitor, dentist, surgeon who is an impostor. Nate Silver, St. Pinker, Sam Harris are total impostors.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/796780160162942976   Permalink 12:38 PM – 10 Nov 2016

@GhassanDahhan The guy on the left was just added on the US list of designated terrorists. The guy on the right was just awarded the Press Freedom Award.pic.twitter.com/h3bUU2HgMU Permalink 11:28 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I can’t stand impostors. Permalink 10:22 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb “Intellectual” America: @sapinker who doesn’t know mean!= sample mean now arbiter of… probabilitistic reasoning!pic.twitter.com/Uc59XoXqs0 Permalink 9:25 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@Sartor1836 A Nobel Laureate* in Economics, ladies and gentlemen. cc: @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/hackcelerity/status/796501638601121792   Permalink 9:18 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After his reaction to my earlier criticism it is my opinion @NateSilver538 should leave the business.https://twitter.com/aigo3000/status/796738157802819584   Permalink 7:45 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb What is alarming isn’t that they were wrong but that these idiots underestimated their error rate. Similar to p-val https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2834266  https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/796700880246571012   Permalink 5:23 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Vienna @nutanixpic.twitter.com/pCngG5w5p8 Permalink 5:03 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Anyone taking conditional market forecasts frm someone (@justinwolfers) paid by charitable contributions has a pbm!https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/796394861633110016   Permalink 11:52 PM – 9 Nov 2016