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Tag Archives: violence

Macrobullshit, Monsanto, IYI, Metrification, VIOLENCE, GAWKER, The New Artisan | Facebook

The rebellion against the “experts” that we are witnessing can be simplified: experts in some domains like economics, political science, policymaking are not experts. But we know why: PRINCIPLE: it is easier to macrobullshit than microbullshit. So your car mechanic, sushi chef, house painter, espresso machine repairperson, plumber, barber, dentist, Apple genius bar attendant, sanitation […]

Gini Coefficients, Powerlaws, Violence How to (Not) Estimate Gini Coefficients for Fat Tailed Variables by Nassim Nicholas Taleb :: SSRN — NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 16, 2015 Another paper @dottorpax on dealing with pseudo-powerlaws — NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 15, 2015 Slides for my flash talk at the Bloomberg QuantSeminar this evening […]

Statistics of Violence as Special Case of Fat Tails

A lecture summarizing the paper on violence with Cirillo to MIT and NECSI data scientists, mostly explaining to data scientists how to work with fat tails and only indirectly addressing Pinker by responding to those fooled by the illusion of drop in violence:     Uploaded on Jul 10, 2015 A lunch discussion at MIT […]

Is the World Getting Safer? Maybe Not | Bloomberg

To get a clearer sense of what’s really going on, the statistician Pasquale Cirillo, working alongside Nassim Taleb of “The Black Swan” fame, did an analysis using extreme value theory — a branch of mathematics specifically designed for such problems. Looking at war data over 2,000 years, they found that violent conflicts have fatter tails than […]

Violent warfare is on the wane, right? | Mark Buchanan

That has now changed. Just today, Taleb, writing with another mathematician, Pasquale Cirillo, has released a detailed analysis of the statistics of violent warfare going back some 2000 years, with an emphasis on the properties of the tails of the distribution — the likelihood of the most extreme events. I’ve written a short Bloomberg piece on the […]