Tag Archives: Pasquale Cirillo

Religion, Pasquale Cirillo, Costco, Olive Oil, Narcissism, Gene Editing, Clintons

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@wcsoto “Religion isn’t so much about telling man that there is one God as about preventing man from thinking that he is God.”
N. N. Taleb
@nntaleb Permalink 8:44 AM – 13 May 2015

@nntaleb 2nd accepted paper this year w/Cirillo.
We need a paper on statistical properties of squid ink to have a good y. https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/697796849713967104   Permalink 7:04 AM – 11 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The problem with mental clarity is that you need to have mental clarity to understand what it means. Permalink 6:56 AM – 11 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Costco buys it in Italy @ArrogantMonkey Permalink 6:19 AM – 11 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Any olive oil expert in the room? Great to see that Costco, a large corp, doesn’t cheat.
https://c1.oliveoiltim.es/library/ucd-2010-report.pdf   pic.twitter.com/UMKDaPhlGr Permalink 6:00 AM – 11 Feb 2016

@nntaleb My understanding of narcissist is that they think they are the center of the world/others are objects, bt they DON’T show it like sociopaths Permalink 11:56 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@yaneerbaryam Top U.S. Intelligence Official Calls Gene Editing a WMD Threat https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600774/top-us-intelligence-official-calls-gene-editing-a-wmd-threat/#.VruTWntnw5w.twitter   Permalink 11:45 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Answering questions on gamblers ruin (technical) pic.twitter.com/sSRhV2c25J Permalink 11:42 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb My understanding of narcissists is here: they don’t have empathy. pic.twitter.com/8HSuoFuzvP Permalink 10:56 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb A narcissist tries to please pple to manipulate them,treats them like tools. Not the case w/The Donaldo @realDonaldTrump More like B.Clinton Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@bankofengland Nassim Taleb’s One Bank Flagship Seminar will be webcast live here http://goo.gl/XVRLiU   on 18 February at 16:15 hrs GMT #BoETaleb Permalink 8:48 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Additional reason I am more impressed by erudition than “intelligence”: to have erudition requires NOT reading the newspapers (#vianegativa) Permalink 8:07 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison used the State Department to promote Monsanto overseas/lobby against GMO-skeptics while Bill was paid by them. Permalink 7:56 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb It hit me from the origin of the term halal that morality has minority dynamics
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf   pic.twitter.com/JMuRpmXiET Permalink 7:42 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb In past Jesuist priests had monstrous erudition & practical sense; there was a huge demand by industry for few who left orders @JasonSCFung Permalink 6:51 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Clintons: As becoming a Jesuit priest to build a CV to get job w/~Goldman Sachs is unethical, so is using public office to get rich later. Permalink 6:43 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The Clintons managed to convince many, many people that they were not sumbags… but it is eventually like keeping a balloon under water. Permalink 5:27 AM – 10 Feb 2016

Statistics of Violence as Special Case of Fat Tails

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A lecture summarizing the paper on violence with Cirillo to MIT and NECSI data scientists, mostly explaining to data scientists how to work with fat tails and only indirectly addressing Pinker by responding to those fooled by the illusion of drop in violence:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1Dm2ZYeA6U

 

Uploaded on Jul 10, 2015

A lunch discussion at MIT with computer science-data science researchers from MIT and NECSI. The talk is mostly about the methodology for dealing with fat tails, with application to violence.
We show which claims can be made, and which ones cannot be made, from data, and “violence has dropped” is not one of them. We do not focus directly on Steven Pinker’s popular science book (owing to some deficiencies), only indirectly as some people in political science made reference to it.
The paper is here: http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.04722

via: Facebook

Is the World Getting Safer? Maybe Not | Bloomberg

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To get a clearer sense of what’s really going on, the statistician Pasquale Cirillo, working alongside Nassim Taleb of “The Black Swan” fame, did an analysis using extreme value theory — a branch of mathematics specifically designed for such problems. Looking at war data over 2,000 years, they found that violent conflicts have fatter tails than earthquakes and markets, suggesting an even more profound tendency to extremes. “History as seen from tail analysis,” Cirillo and Taleb conclude, “is far more risky, and conflicts far more violent than acknowledged by naive observation.”

Source: Is the World Getting Safer? Maybe Not

Violent warfare is on the wane, right? | Mark Buchanan

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That has now changed. Just today, Taleb, writing with another mathematician, Pasquale Cirillo, has released a detailed analysis of the statistics of violent warfare going back some 2000 years, with an emphasis on the properties of the tails of the distribution — the likelihood of the most extreme events. I’ve written a short Bloomberg piece on the new paper, and wanted to offer a few more technical details here. The analysis, I think, goes a long way to making clear why we are so ill-prepared to think clearly about processes governed by fat tails, and so prone to falling into interpretive error. Moreover, it strongly suggests that hopes of a future with significantly less war are NOT supported by anything in the recent trend of conflict infrequency. The optimists are fooling themselves.

Source: Violent warfare is on the wane, right?

On the tail risk of violent conflict and its underestimation

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On the tail risk of violent conflict and its underestimation. A statistical picture of violence: no, the frequency of violent conflicts and their risk did not decline. The “long peace” is not seen in the data. With Pasquale Cirillo.

http://fooledbyrandomness.com/violence.pdf

Source: On the tail risk of violent conflict and its… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb