Skip to content

Tag Archives: Pasquale Cirillo

Religion, Pasquale Cirillo, Costco, Olive Oil, Narcissism, Gene Editing, Clintons

@wcsoto “Religion isn’t so much about telling man that there is one God as about preventing man from thinking that he is God.” N. N. Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 8:44 AM – 13 May 2015 @nntaleb 2nd accepted paper this year w/Cirillo. We need a paper on statistical properties of squid ink to have a good […]

Statistics of Violence as Special Case of Fat Tails

A lecture summarizing the paper on violence with Cirillo to MIT and NECSI data scientists, mostly explaining to data scientists how to work with fat tails and only indirectly addressing Pinker by responding to those fooled by the illusion of drop in violence:     Uploaded on Jul 10, 2015 A lunch discussion at MIT […]

Is the World Getting Safer? Maybe Not | Bloomberg

To get a clearer sense of what’s really going on, the statistician Pasquale Cirillo, working alongside Nassim Taleb of “The Black Swan” fame, did an analysis using extreme value theory — a branch of mathematics specifically designed for such problems. Looking at war data over 2,000 years, they found that violent conflicts have fatter tails than […]

Violent warfare is on the wane, right? | Mark Buchanan

That has now changed. Just today, Taleb, writing with another mathematician, Pasquale Cirillo, has released a detailed analysis of the statistics of violent warfare going back some 2000 years, with an emphasis on the properties of the tails of the distribution — the likelihood of the most extreme events. I’ve written a short Bloomberg piece on the […]

On the tail risk of violent conflict and its underestimation

On the tail risk of violent conflict and its underestimation. A statistical picture of violence: no, the frequency of violent conflicts and their risk did not decline. The “long peace” is not seen in the data. With Pasquale Cirillo. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/violence.pdf Source: On the tail risk of violent conflict and its… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb