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Tag Archives: Mark Buchanan

Is the World Getting Safer? Maybe Not | Bloomberg

To get a clearer sense of what’s really going on, the statistician Pasquale Cirillo, working alongside Nassim Taleb of “The Black Swan” fame, did an analysis using extreme value theory — a branch of mathematics specifically designed for such problems. Looking at war data over 2,000 years, they found that violent conflicts have fatter tails than […]

Violent warfare is on the wane, right? | Mark Buchanan

That has now changed. Just today, Taleb, writing with another mathematician, Pasquale Cirillo, has released a detailed analysis of the statistics of violent warfare going back some 2000 years, with an emphasis on the properties of the tails of the distribution — the likelihood of the most extreme events. I’ve written a short Bloomberg piece on the […]