Tag Archives: Flaneuring

Nocera, GMOs, IYIs, MSM, Flaneuring, Tamar Haspel, Clarissa Ward, “Nudge” | Twitter

@nntaleb One of the “failures” sold a company for billions. There exists no business in which people can be as clueless as journos, yet survive. Permalink 1:47 PM – 15 Jul 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A tragedy. Could not just “like” ithttps://twitter.com/republicofmath/status/886261006007242752   Permalink 12:49 PM – 15 Jul 2017

@theenviousleft 97% of media professionals donated to Clinton. Learn about skin in the game and stop lying you obfuscating dunce. @nntaleb Permalink 10:18 AM – 15 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Bullshitters like you, indeed. Permalink 9:24 AM – 15 Jul 2017

@nntaleb This is Sophistry 101 by a BSTimes journo. Typical BSTimes. We are talking abt threat to the West, not threat to Russia. (fake use of SITG)https://twitter.com/GlennThrush/status/886251135144800257   Permalink 9:18 AM – 15 Jul 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Cyclic Inequality In Three Variables with Constraints http://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/SimplifiedSitaru2.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/gpaRsyYypU”>  pic.twitter.com/gpaRsyYypU Permalink 6:48 AM – 15 Jul 2017

@nntaleb 2) Cont Election Paper pic.twitter.com/TFVgDvBA3S Permalink 5:48 AM – 15 Jul 2017

@nntaleb 1) Submitted this version of the Election paper to a journal. pic.twitter.com/EGHkyIZe0F Permalink 5:47 AM – 15 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Three hours.https://twitter.com/StoolPoop/status/885986219405918208   Permalink 7:20 PM – 14 Jul 2017

@nntaleb BSTimes journo looks at failed AynRanders. He didn’t realize they WERE already successful. No cohort comparison.https://nyti.ms/2vgJeR5   Permalink 1:14 PM – 14 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the Game.https://twitter.com/catoletters/status/885948326163689472   Permalink 1:00 PM – 14 Jul 2017

@nntaleb So we now can quantify by how much books on “RISK” using “empiricism” like Fischhoff’s & oth. nonrisktaking academics are clueless. pic.twitter.com/A0Q4vNP9NY Permalink 11:32 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Finally found a closed-form for by how much we underestimate the true extreme using a “empirical distribution” (Reason: rainy Friday in NY.) pic.twitter.com/GxShlFKTuV Permalink 11:16 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@ebruenner just concluded v. long twitter debate w/ pro gmo. 100% arguments based on: -credentialism -unquestionable NECESSITY of novel foods Permalink 11:08 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@MastaKace Haplogroup J2 is generally associated with the Romans, it’s also found in high frequencies in area around Dardanelles & Constantinople (1) pic.twitter.com/uMo0iGUCSL Permalink 9:58 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@NonMeek .@nntaleb Another attempt at the Alan Blinder Problem with your helpful ideas hopefully I’m getting it right this time. #rentseeking pic.twitter.com/WhvHtCj71B Permalink 9:44 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@nntaleb There is NO EVIDENCE whatsoever abt safety of GMOs. Not ONE risk study. Nor does hiding stuff abt Glyphosate help much Keep trying Monsanto! pic.twitter.com/aVWv2rfqa9 Permalink 5:01 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Charlatan invoke such things as “potential to feed pple” in place of PROOF it won’t cause disaster for same pple. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  https://twitter.com/potatodoctor/status/885814957211832322   Permalink 4:52 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@fortierfinance NNT thread one of few places throughout my day I can reliably find justice being authentically served-world seems bit more sane as a result Permalink 11:59 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb IYI Steil, don’t flatter yourself, I am not messing with you bec I am angry; I just take immense pleasure in busting BS vendors. Kapish? Permalink 11:55 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb As I said, media commentators & former Gawker journalists seem have a contagious overpowering concern with… substance.https://twitter.com/AdamWeinstein/status/885567669273059328   Permalink 11:39 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb By definition IYIs (Intellectuals Yet Idiots) provide responses that are independent of the question. Permalink 11:34 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Do you have a remark that’s not some asinine platitudinous reply lifted from “Response Manual for low IQ Thinkers for All Circumstances?” Permalink 11:31 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Petty, obsessive, substance-free criticism of Trump by petit-intellectuals (IYIs) has been fueling him, & destroying “intellectualism”.https://twitter.com/BennSteil/status/885562728282304512   Permalink 11:22 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb NonFiction bestsellers are NOT correlated w/MSM: Books against bloated gov, Milo, Gingrich, etc. People vote with their wallet. MSM is dead.https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/885504822643834883   Permalink 9:34 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Proved that the so-called “Empirical Distribution” is not empirical, the “robust” is not robust. This is a scratchpad pic.twitter.com/TZBDsvEaKW Permalink 9:28 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb The daily quizzes by maestro @CutTheKnotMath are like finding a parking spot in NYC: Never easy, never impossible.https://twitter.com/cuttheknotmath/status/884853542451892224   Permalink 7:18 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@GuruAnaerobic A fat-tailed process can masquerade as a thin-tailed one bt not the reverse @nntaleb If more experts knew this they wouldn’t talk so much BS Permalink 7:13 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb It isn’t natural to know when your vacation/week end terminates. Modern life creates Sunday night blues. Flaneuring removes such a specter Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@eldivyn In every undertaking, the more humans try to be demi-gods, the more they become half-monsters.”- @nntaleb Permalink 1:46 PM – 12 Jul 2017

@nntaleb To paraphrase Feynman, math like s*x, is something you do for the fun, with potential side effects. Permalink 10:28 AM – 12 Jul 2017

@nntaleb But @TamarHaspel is a Monsanto shill! Permalink 9:58 AM – 12 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Applied math is math + skin in the game.https://twitter.com/johndcook/status/885164373743980545   Permalink 8:59 AM – 12 Jul 2017

@DanielLMcAdams More photos the MSM is desperate to hide…can’t let middle America know the truth about Syria…https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/884443152278532103   Permalink 7:10 AM – 12 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Free markets eventually lead to free speech. Censorship by social media not compatible w/ free enterprise! Markets => Ideas, not reverse.https://twitter.com/Imamofpeace/status/885111752098070530   Permalink 5:23 AM – 12 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Anyone who listens to an economist has some incurable condition. As to economists…https://twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/885059554869997574   Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 Jul 2017

@nntaleb My enemies give me the reputation of a total as***le. The bonus is that people are always surprised when I am nice to them.https://twitter.com/wileecoyotewec/status/884881383776296960   Permalink 2:40 PM – 11 Jul 2017

@gfriend “Peace: Neither Ink nor Blood” by @nntaleb (and why the Arabs are fighting to the last Palestinian)https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 2:37 PM – 11 Jul 2017

@Theodore8 as close as I will ever get to @nntaleb #cuttlefish #ink #greece #kalokéri pic.twitter.com/lgqha7G3sm Permalink 11:53 AM – 11 Jul 2017

@garyruskin How the #GMO industry gets journalists to buy its messages, by @marionnestlehttp://bit.ly/2v8Pdrg   Permalink 9:17 AM – 11 Jul 2017

@nntaleb [Thread on Pyrrhic Victories] “If we win one more victory, we are doomed!” Si alteram talem victoriam reporta, vero mea erit pernicies Permalink 7:37 AM – 11 Jul 2017

@dannyhakim Key part of agrochem PR strategy is claiming that serious reporting on GMO’s/pesticides akin to being anti-vax or a climate change denier. Permalink 7:26 AM – 11 Jul 2017

@nntaleb The most serious error in statistics is taking properties out of a textbook and applying it mechanistically (a la Pinker boy). pic.twitter.com/bVuLOfwXRK Permalink 6:54 AM – 11 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Wondering why journos love GMOs? I am witness to a bit of this.http://progressive.org/magazine/how-the-biotech-industry-cultivates-positive-media/#.WWSwwM170Ds.twitter   Permalink 4:04 AM – 11 Jul 2017

@nntaleb What should I discuss? Permalink 1:31 PM – 10 Jul 2017

@nntaleb In about 9 minutes will start my econtalk with@EconTalker pic.twitter.com/nf7WdcviSJ Permalink 1:19 PM – 10 Jul 2017

@rpodgornik ..or possibly: Si Athenas et Spartam, quod aiunt, ne clamor ridentem. Permalink 10:05 AM – 10 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Heuristic: when picking a restaurant in an unfamiliar city, don’t look at the menu, look at the clients. Permalink 9:53 AM – 10 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Same as fake entrepreneurs only interested in packaging and selling companies: fake scholars only interested in credentials/local status. Permalink 9:27 AM – 10 Jul 2017

@nntaleb The vanquished cries, but the victor doesn’t laugh. Roman proverbhttps://twitter.com/johnrobb/status/884416954693505024   Permalink 7:26 AM – 10 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Wrong. Data shows that once settled, people tend to stay… like an occupied spot. “Invasions” overstated. Languages move faster than geneshttps://twitter.com/vrints_annemie/status/884399982073315328   Permalink 6:28 AM – 10 Jul 2017

@RealDHilburn Btw, this Chesterton quote reminds me of the Taleb test to detect ISIS sympathizers among refugees: pic.twitter.com/TPHWJ0BNKR Permalink 8:38 AM – 9 Jul 2017

@nntaleb A good database of ALL payments frm Qatar & oth Gulf sources to @Charles_Lister & employers for promoting Al-Qaeda? Same for @MiddleEastInsthttps://twitter.com/Desertlady11/status/883227758675058688   Permalink 7:42 AM – 9 Jul 2017

@nntaleb 4 hours lefthttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/883766265524965379   Permalink 7:31 AM – 9 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Getting to *prove* how tail risk estimation methods are flawed in the econ & behavioral econ literature. pic.twitter.com/XRiEzihhDW Permalink 5:22 AM – 9 Jul 2017

@mikeandallie We are having similar mornings. I just spent 2 hrs with Nassim Taleb’s latest paper pic.twitter.com/KoA1m4Vpl4 Permalink 4:57 AM – 9 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Strangely, @clarissaward from CNN posts nothing but fraudulous news/Jihadi propaganda that spreads & never retracts. Why it keep going? Permalink 12:14 PM – 8 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Visit to Kazakstan last mont. No tie, of course. Lost 6 lbs on a zero-carb (no squid ink) diet since. pic.twitter.com/irhCTMHMrf Permalink 11:24 AM – 8 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Exercise: Is uncertainty purely epistemic limitation? Think about it: destroys free will, requires teleology, unescapable preordained fatehttps://twitter.com/ProbFact/status/883743278008553472   Permalink 10:53 AM – 8 Jul 2017

@nntaleb And I am going to ask a “consultant” to tawk about Real Life? Permalink 10:14 AM – 8 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/DwmFOhTebf Permalink 7:19 AM – 8 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Why” Nudge” and much of Behavioral Econ is bullshit science. pic.twitter.com/QFGQBUXnxN Permalink 7:10 AM – 8 Jul 2017

@nntaleb The reason Cyprus is at a stalemate: negociators are …bureaucrats. Clueless bureaucrats & political “scientists”. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac  https://twitter.com/financecyprus/status/883670265586167812   Permalink 5:55 AM – 8 Jul 2017

Umberto Eco, Yiddish Proverbs, Citi, John Gray, Popper, Hayek, Bryan Appleyard, Flaneuring | Twitter

@nntaleb RIP, Umberto Eco
Ad vitam aeternam Permalink 4:09 PM – 19 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The reason we decided to not respond to this idiot.
@nickgillespie pic.twitter.com/h4eIZfvpid Permalink 2:45 PM – 19 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The Qatari/Saudi-funded BS promoted by Obamistic bureaucrats we hear about the Syrian opposition:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/02/18/the-media-are-misleading-public-syria/8YB75otYirPzUCnlwaVtcK/story.html   Permalink 1:27 PM – 19 Feb 2016

@nntaleb كذب المنجمون ولو صدقوا https://twitter.com/YiddishProverbs/status/700791249624821762   Permalink 1:19 PM – 19 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Has the Market Crash Only Just Begun? http://bloom.bg/1XxEO0X   via markets Permalink 11:18 PM – 18 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Citi is a periodically bankrupt utility. #noskininthegame

Citigroup Increases Corbat’s Pay 27% to $16.5 Million http://bloom.bg/1mKMdws   Permalink 5:13 PM – 18 Feb 2016

@fjechandi One pager on #fragilitylogic by @nntaleb at the @bankofengland’s #onebank seminar launch. pic.twitter.com/pi25ILnTAX Permalink 11:01 AM – 18 Feb 2016

@BryanAppleyard John Gray and @nntaleb compose a tweet pic.twitter.com/KFZZRWJE1h Permalink 1:37 PM – 17 Feb 2016

@nntaleb John Gray knew Popper & Hayek: Popper got angry & Hayek was indifferent with criticism for same reason: they were both knew they were right Permalink 1:40 PM – 17 Feb 2016

@nntaleb john Gray and @BryanAppleyard will next explain why Guinness is better in UK and Ireland than U.S. pic.twitter.com/pkJ8uIKZnZ Permalink 12:52 PM – 17 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Philosopher John Gray & @BryanAppleyard fixated on a piece of lamb in anotherwise quite abstract discussion. pic.twitter.com/4X8RorlYLj Permalink 11:51 AM – 17 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Flaneuring in London, seeing the minority rule: stores organic or halal. GMOs are dead.
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf   pic.twitter.com/w2paMA4zCh Permalink 7:53 AM – 17 Feb 2016

Halal, Eataly, Firms & Slaves, Coase, Strong Filtering, Flaneuring, Tails








This page is not about finance except when the idea generalizes. Here it helps us connect flaneuring to successes such as those of Buffet.
The best thing is to not have to do anything *as a default*. So one commits in those cases that are way too obvious.
+ No schedule except when you can’t do without
+ Have no personal assistant.
+ Have no office, or only use one when strictly necessary.
+ Only write things that you find compelling.
+ Take only those offers that you can’t refuse.

So I figured out something about the success of Munger-Buffett. It is not in the strategies they run, but in their very, very, very strong filtering.
Simply it is generalized flaneuring. Charlie Munger: “We have no system for estimating the correct value of all businesses. We put almost all in the “too hard” pile and sift through a few easy ones”. “Warren (Buffett) talks about these discounted cash flows. I’ve never seen him do one”. (in Tren Griffin’s book)

The implication is that the nuances of the “genre” as strategy matter less than filtering. Because of such nonlinearity, Buffett’s performance is no longer correlated with that of the strategy.



Why Europeans will eat Halal before long; how morality came about; how GMOs are going bust: The stubborn minority https://t.co/aqvZRfx0qN

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 25, 2015

When I die I want to end up at Eataly in Milan: books, food, wine, & people. pic.twitter.com/YbwTuyKCNl

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 25, 2015

Why do firms exist? Because of the need for slaves. https://t.co/2VlvtOsuia

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 25, 2015

Here is Coase’s seminal paper on the theory of the firm. He missed the point of employee =risk control via SITG https://t.co/NH7WcAM8J4

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 26, 2015

Skin in the game workshop, 4 papers on SITG by PhD students at Zurich’s ETH. pic.twitter.com/Ff9PvqfA16

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 26, 2015

If you trust Italy’s GDP nmbrs, I have a bridge to sell near Napoli. Italy’s GDP fughedaboud theundergroundeconomy https://t.co/Vk3rHCZPeK

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 26, 2015

Strong Filtering as Generalized Flaneuring @trengriffin https://t.co/NjeaStJStQ

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 22, 2015

Wrong reasoning with the left tail/systemic risk. We don’t use the argument with plane crashes! https://t.co/z8spFgkiMO

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 23, 2015

Latest paper with @dottorpax on method to to do stats with fat tail that are not infinite. https://t.co/SlnjBNZXuH

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 22, 2015