Tag Archives: nudge

REPLICATION CRISIS, Gabish, Monsanto, Donaldo, Saudi Barbaria, slaves, Nudge, trees, waiters | Twitter

@nntaleb Coincidentally… What he means by “Greek” literature is … things for intellectuals. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1034835323384197120   Permalink 3:10 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 4) People don’t realize the more severe problem is not absence of replication, rather the reduction of EFFECT for those that replicated. If you lower effect by ½, the odds of being observed in REAL LIFE decreases nonlinearly. From 2 sigmas to 1 sigma, down by 86%. Permalink 12:50 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@broketrout Just seeing this book title gave me nightmares.. pic.twitter.com/sNuLpVem2Q Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Academics think in very low-resolution digital while humans see things in analog. Permalink 12:18 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@originalgibby Replication of findings in @sciencemagazine and @nature slightly better than a coin flip. Once again @nntaleb is correct. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/08/27/researchers-replicate-just-13-of-21-social-science-experiments-published-in-top-journals/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.bb6f15ba4889   Permalink 11:32 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) The REPLICATION CRISIS a VINDICATION for citizens SICK & TIRED of the Harvards w/a sense of entitlement treating practitioners as immature pple lost without their “science” when it is STATISTICALLY shown Harvards are no better than Ms Bré, fortune teller. pic.twitter.com/TJAZ41AAbT Permalink 8:18 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) 2 ½ years ago I proved MATHEMATICALLY p-values need to be lowered by at least 1 order of magnitude. Now @BrianNosek et al, 75 authors mysteriously realize that p-values need to be lowered by…. 1 order of magnitude. List includes of course a bunch of Harvards I insulted. pic.twitter.com/xK2rVp8AL6 Permalink 7:32 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) We now have to face the fact that what is called “social science” and “evidence based” is scientifically shown to be equivalent to “bullshit vending”. Except less elegant, of course. Which brings us back to ancestral heuristics, #Lindy, #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1034130885711417345   Permalink 7:21 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@ggreenwald 1/ In the wake of the @NewYorker profile, several people recommended I look at the ugly 2003 hit piece that magazine did on Chomsky (on the even of the Iraq War) & 2008 attack on Naomi Klein after “Shock Doctrine.” It is striking how they use the same expel-from-mainstream script pic.twitter.com/rr1BKBa5JJ Permalink 5:55 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What happens to post-Monsanto shills? Predictably, they will do #shameless propaganda elsewhere. “Glyphosate Mark” @mark_lynas seems to have reconverted to promotion of… AlQaeda, helping propagandist @Charles_Lister do #pedophrasty w/fake pictures of dead children in Syria. Permalink 5:52 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I have been blocking nitpickers on “Gabish”. “Gabish” is to “Capisce” what “Gabagool” is to “Capicola”, what “Brozhut” is to “Prosciuto”, what “Avangool” is to [YOU FIGURE IT OUT]… Gabish? Permalink 5:14 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Free speech is something unconditional BY DEFINITION, not something reserved to what your ears enjoy hearing. Gabish? Permalink 7:17 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get what a utility means. Permalink 6:58 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If someone told me 10 years ago that 1) The White House would be fighting CENSORSHIP by the media (not the other way around, while 2) The media accuses the White House of fascism, I would have called an ambulance. https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/protect-free-speech-digital-public-square-0   Permalink 6:13 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The label “left” is a better disguise for the war machine/weapon makers. Hence the militaristic pseudo-left sills … https://twitter.com/brankomilan/status/1034296370155466753   Permalink 2:17 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Iosif @iosif_lazaridis is part of a group that is revolutionizing history/archeology, putting them on FIRM scientific grounds, using potent statistics/combinatorics. Yes, indeed we can tell population migrations with a 10^-10 error rate. Thank you, Iosif & ignore journos. https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1034509740729098242   Permalink 12:11 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) The Propaganda Times (formerly kn0wn as NYT) article misses that those who can’t do can’t do for a reason, an epistemological reason: they often know the wrong things. So we make pple who know the wrong things teach the wrong things for the sake of “pedagogy”. This is fraud. Permalink 11:42 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Traditionally those “communicators” good at explaining are the charlatans, BS Vendors… https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52   Permalink 10:19 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) The NYT vs #SkinInTheGame. It is very dangerous to favor those good at explaining but not understanding over people good at understanding but not explaining. pic.twitter.com/k6IIt6Btvp Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I can vouch from Skin in THAT Game. https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/status/1034476469483970561   Permalink 9:25 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nonvegetarian nongymmachines nonmillennial nonjournalists nonwhitecollarsalarymen nonactors weightlifters have wide waists. Gabish? #Lindy pic.twitter.com/bqvRFXYBO3 Permalink 7:34 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Someone needs to explain to the illustrator of @black_swan_man that nonvegetarian non-teenage non-gym-machines weightlifters have wide waists. (next tweet) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1034193426126909441   Permalink 7:30 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@LorenzoWVilla @nntaleb will like this: Eugenio Montale’s via negativa. https://twitter.com/FPanunzi/status/1034436182271246336   Permalink 6:49 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Actually most of it was done on Dec 31, 1999, about the best books of the 20th C. Things change… Permalink 6:44 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Either Jaffer needs an alibi to be in NY or we are doing something right @financequant https://twitter.com/jaffer22915438/status/1034163318511071233   Permalink 4:05 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This was lifted from comments I made 10 years ago about 20th C novels. Of course the real thing (Dostoyevski) will be missing… Permalink 3:30 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Favorite Literature Books https://www.nuggetsofthought.com/2018/08/22/taleb-literature-books   Permalink 2:53 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid NOT ONLY CAUSALITIES BUT ALSO ASSOCIATIONS ARE HARD IN SOCIAL SCIENCES Ioannidis author of “Why Most Published Research Finding (in medicine) Are False” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16060722   just published a paper https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2698337   showing that the nutritional field need radical reform. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qVnSHTEfrM”>  pic.twitter.com/qVnSHTEfrM Permalink 7:49 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) To simplify, this is the #FooledbyRandomness effect: @paulkrugman is pontificating from NOISE, not signal, and the first thing one should teach students is to learn to make a difference between noise and signal. Permalink 5:32 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb From work/discussion with @financequant: BTC doesn’t even have a variance, steep power law. pic.twitter.com/jdofe7ERRJ Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Statistically flawed statement: no such claims can be made under high variance power law. #SkinintheGame: if @paulkrugman had his own $ at risk, he would have been blowup on bitcoin up >10^4% & eliminated from the ecology… or eliminated from the ecology before even bitcoin… https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1033393663450259459   Permalink 5:09 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Wars… https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1033735711441092608   Permalink 3:07 PM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 5) What inspired the Greek/Roman metaphor is the incident when Cato expelled Greek philosophers & rhetors from Rome. Cato was fiercely anti-BS… (from Fooled by Randomness) pic.twitter.com/lfB2br1XgO Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 4) Discussion of “Roman” vs “Greek” in #Antifragile based on optionality, which is of course NOT LITERAL & unconditional but a general metaphor: In general, Romans were conscious of 2nd order effects all across, despised theory, tawkers, & vapid philosophising. pic.twitter.com/56sO6o7Nwd Permalink 5:59 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn’t: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times …causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today. #Antifragile: how academics lie abt role of theory: they WRITE history. pic.twitter.com/ZedV2lneL8 Permalink 5:47 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1)PSYCHO-BS In #Antifragile: I was convinced that the theory that money does *not* bring happiness (beyond a level) was bogus in spite of the “evidence”: psychologists of happiness like $$ & Lindy effect. Turned out that research was psycho-BS, doesn’t replicate #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/84kvvoMrtS Permalink 5:33 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@DanielLMcAdams The “antiwar” opposition to the war machine. And no one will admit that we are a one-party state… https://twitter.com/timand2037/status/1033565189814112256   Permalink 9:07 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb BTW, Byzantines were diehard Roman. Greek was just a language. Permalink 2:49 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The real difference in politics isn’t the “right” vs “left” gradation but rather “Greek” vs “Roman”. + Greek = puts theory above practice + Roman= puts practice above theory Be Roman. Now. Permalink 2:47 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Using factorials (simpler) pic.twitter.com/fj2r70bPCH Permalink 11:12 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Steps on how Stirling was used for solution pic.twitter.com/adIh0e8HP3 Permalink 10:21 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb OK, Saturday workout in remembrance of @CutTheKnotMath but not sure Maestro was crazy about gamma functions. cc: @SvetlanaBogom13 pic.twitter.com/mgZvKpHhgS Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb In the absence of @CutTheKnotMath, a Saturday morning workout he would have liked (from Dan Sitaru). pic.twitter.com/dSVv2jH6V5 Permalink 5:32 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/MWD0SCAJME Permalink 5:02 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb εἶπεν δέ Ἀμὴν λέγω ὑμῖν ὅτι οὐδεὶς προφήτης δεκτός ἐστιν ἐν τῇ πατρίδι αὐτοῦ. https://twitter.com/faleflix/status/1033086428442488833   Permalink 4:38 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Thanks @RonPaul. You are a real world superhero. In the Black Swan Man comic, what should your super powers be? https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1033074963568357376   Permalink 1:02 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Black Swan man fighting central banksters and the enemies of Satoshi. …but can someone explain to the cartoonist weightlifters have wider waists? https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1033004379962580992   Permalink 8:09 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb New Title: The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails becomes Real-World Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails pic.twitter.com/eHe6svaha2 Permalink 7:00 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@ban_kanj No, this isn’t the Amalfi coast.. it’s Southern Lebanon #Naquoura #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/7XqDXMdT9k Permalink 6:41 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Monsanto has commonalities w/Theranos & Madoff, court papers show Made claims from SAFETY studies they NEVER did Lobbied, bullied regulators by infiltrating the system Owned “science” journalists & “rational” crowd Smear campaigns ag scientists (yours truly), ruining careers https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1032633507003158528   Permalink 6:19 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The good news: Forbes & Project Syndicate fired Monsanto shill @henryimiller & removed all past articles. But I cannot believe some journos like Tamar Haspel known to be colluding with Monsanto are still writing in newspapers like @washingtonpost https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1032962224820834306   Permalink 6:09 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@DanielLMcAdams How sick that Obama decided to let crazed, head-chopping jihadists loose on these good Christian people. And how sad that Trump is too blind to see what’s really going on in Syria. There will be hell to pay for the murder of these innocents. Literally. https://twitter.com/iraqschristians/status/1032746441104674817   Permalink 6:15 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@MccluskyMark People seem to get it, even if their spelling is a little phunny. pic.twitter.com/2LGriWAfOK Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@restoration_x Taleb has discussed and developed Pareto a great deal. Perhaps it is no coincidence that they even ook remarkably similar. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964450061164965888?s=19   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/isefixKgyQ”>  pic.twitter.com/isefixKgyQ Permalink 1:11 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I’d rather live in a society where people complain about lawyers than one in which they don’t. https://twitter.com/societalruin/status/1032638737073598464   Permalink 7:52 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) For instance Monsanto’s Eric Sachs @ericsachsPhD who was behind the smear campaign against us & others (collusion with fake journo @keithkloor & Co), retired after the merger. But I will make sure he & others pay some stiff penalty at some point in the rest of their lives. Permalink 7:48 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) From what I understand about mergers, former Monsanto executives can be easily sued by Bayer for stuff they did not disclose or for past malpractice. And I am certain Bayer wasn’t aware of the stuff revealed by court papers. Permalink 7:39 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The beginning of the end… https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/1032632886627721216   Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Enfin, la France… https://journal.lepoint.fr/comment-vous-n-avez-pas-encore-lu-taleb-2244655   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/xajDMhBge2″>  pic.twitter.com/xajDMhBge2 Permalink 5:58 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Solution pic.twitter.com/UpJQs9Jbw1 Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb That was quick. The idea of #skininthegame made it to Homeland Security… https://twitter.com/CodeDotGov/status/1025158440522534912   Permalink 5:13 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@maalaukong I still can’t believe I had the gut to train barbell when no doctors and people around me would advise me do that. But I read Antifragile -and after lifting for months I am fine now still thank you Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Morning Quiz. From Dan Sitaru/Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/kSk0ceHTxr Permalink 4:45 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Helenus: on the difference between engineering and reverse engineering. History is HARDER than it seems. pic.twitter.com/tmcfnwqtaz Permalink 2:51 PM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) The story of Helenus @MarkAnthonySPQR as an illustration of the difference between forward and backward equation https://twitter.com/MarkAnthonySPQR/status/1032360191449346048   Permalink 2:49 PM – 22 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Really important work on reporting and citation bias effects on treatment for depression. And there is more not included. ht @nilskappelmann @nntaleb https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/psychological-medicine/article/cumulative-effect-of-reporting-and-citation-biases-on-the-apparent-efficacy-of-treatments-the-case-of-depression/71D73CADE32C0D3D996DABEA3FCDBF57#fndtn-information   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/tMOD00CvTZ”>  pic.twitter.com/tMOD00CvTZ Permalink 10:54 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Stefan Gasic @NonMeek summarizes my new book The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails (Technical Incerto, Vol 1) https://www.academia.edu/37221402/TECHNICAL_INCERTO_VOL_1_THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/RB7ZwdFPKL”>  pic.twitter.com/RB7ZwdFPKL Permalink 8:28 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@NonMeek Bitte schön. Otherwise okay? pic.twitter.com/Z0FKDX8I3s Permalink 8:13 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) Something tactical that Netanyahu is starting to get but Donaldo (& predecessors) never figured out: if you HELP the population w/something practical, makes it more favorable to you. Netanyahu is offering Iranians solutions for their water problems… https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 5:54 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb As a matter of fact sanctions in Iran (by removing market forces) benefit the rent-seeking circles close to the regime, and hurt those they purport to save from said regime… Something about the lack of mental clarity on the part of bureaucrats. Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Maybe… but one thing for sure; @mikeduncan has shown solid evidence of shoddy & unreliable intellectual behavior. And history requires intellectual integrity. https://twitter.com/mikeduncan/status/1031821137003601920   Permalink 5:27 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Donaldo, sanctions have worked only ONCE in history: S. Africa (even then, unsure). They punish the weak in populations: Iraq, Syria, Lybia, Iran … those you yourself identify as victims of regimes. They thwart commerce that brings peace. Highly unrigorous DC IYI thinking. https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1032235948946411523   Permalink 5:15 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Eh, ma3ak 7a22: https://youtu.be/5ejHYQ4ihgI   Permalink 4:14 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Reminds me of a certain book… https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1031959292683804673   Permalink 1:43 PM – 21 Aug 2018

@InsperLiber A partir da análise da obra de Nassim Taleb, Ariel Bozza aborda o delicado problema das minorias intolerantes. Link na bio! #taleb #economia #política #filosofia #ensaio #minorityrule #eleicoes2018 #religião #liberdade #liderança pic.twitter.com/K4UBXd08D6 Permalink 8:51 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Now the news is that they may not have beheaded her “YET”. No difference. Permalink 8:13 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@Mat_Heart “Ceterum censeo saudi barbariam esse delendam.” Talebus Permalink 7:26 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Interesting how Saudi shills think they can make you can believe one furthers US security interests by beheading Shiite women who complain abt gov. treatment. From experience w/Monsanto & Saudi Barbatian shills, e.g. @dietwaldclaus: it’s the last resort job for the total loser. pic.twitter.com/A72dJHXefl Permalink 7:07 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria, not Saudi Arabia. Delenda Saudi Barbaria. https://twitter.com/financequant/status/1031894836784316420   Permalink 6:53 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The style… pic.twitter.com/O08Fba1m8l Permalink 4:18 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I just bought San-Antonio, tome 8 : Bravo, docteur Béru ! ; Viva Bertaga ! ; Un éléphant ça trompe ; Faut… @AbeBooks https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=22650467109&cm_ven=Twitter&cm_cat=TYShare&cm_pla=link&cm_ite=TYShare   Permalink 4:02 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@OZmandia @TuckerGoodrich and @gillespi Have been shouting from the rooftops the dangers of Seed Oils for yonks! Maybe @nntaleb comment will bring it home: https://breaknutrition.com/omega-6-fatty-acids-alternative-hypothesis-diseases-civilization/   SEED OILS ARE A SCAM ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/whTSNtQufd”>  pic.twitter.com/whTSNtQufd Permalink 4:05 PM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb It is also BIGOTRY to replace male privilege by the female one. https://twitter.com/CHSommers/status/1031598245024342017   Permalink 12:17 PM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) This plus the arrival of the “J” later in the Bronze age explains why the Levant has a mitocondrial DNA much closer to Northern Europe: Lebanon closer to France than to Cyprus. pic.twitter.com/TseQESh6v8 Permalink 11:51 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Which vindicates the theory that 1) Ashkenazis’ light eyes don’t not come from “Khazars” or as per some other half-baked theory, but from the original population 2) the 20% light eyes found in Lebanon/North Syria don’t come from crusaders, but are largely indigenous https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1031602205869133824   Permalink 11:39 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If and only If the Markov Chain is ergodic. cc:@yaneerbaryam @ole_b_peters https://twitter.com/ProbFact/status/1031606215179157504   Permalink 11:28 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Influent BS vendors lose their influence the minute they close their mouth or put their pen to rest. Just a tiny bit of silence and they are gone. Permalink 10:38 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb But you only get the tail for a function by avoiding sigmoidal transformations https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/976107986736181249   Permalink 8:09 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb My favorite @NonMeek cartoon by far: “The difference between absence of evidence and evidence of absence is at least 50 IQ points” https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1014559700137009152   Permalink 7:34 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Polygenic predictors have a humongous error rate. https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1031188182849732609   Permalink 6:47 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@GuruAnaerobic Add to the category: ‘LIFE CHANGING OPPORTUNITY’ https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1031524764215648256   Permalink 6:27 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The next uncovered scam will be seed oil, particularly corn oil, which has been passing for “healthy” w/o evidence nor time tested uses, nor any direct evidence it is healthier than butter. Instead of high carb/low carb, consider: w/ or w/o seed oil, grains … cc: @Mangan150 Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 500 years, @KenDBerryMD, but good enough. https://twitter.com/KenDBerryMD/status/1031525228021784577   Permalink 6:01 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS Friends, scholarships (by @financequant & myself) are available for the 9th program Oct 22-26, in NY. We have been giving on average 5 women scholarships & 5 general ones. http://www.realworldrisk.com   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/987695856060174336   Permalink 5:54 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is what @spyrosmakrid seems to be telling us: #ML doesn’t get the tails because nobody can get the tails from past data. https://twitter.com/yjoshi/status/1031491335394607104   Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Eisen has been supporting Monsanto & the GMO BS. Worse: Plos-1 withdrew an Op-Ed by @thackerpd under pressure from Monsanto. Permalink 3:58 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Trishank @trishankkarthik summarized the tawk in a series of tweets: just note that I prefaced (par.) “as a scholar I don’t want to a good speaker, good speakers are usually charlatans” https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1030844991470489600   Permalink 3:05 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I mean Corneille Permalink 1:23 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb My lecktchur on #skininthegame: No guts no glory, no risk no victory, adapted from Racine: ” A vaincre sans péril on triomphe sans gloire”, itself adapted from Seneca: Ignominiam iudicat gladiator cum inferiore componi et scit eum sine gloria uinci qui sine periculo uincitur… pic.twitter.com/tyzG8dSoc6 Permalink 1:01 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Two heuristics for nonergodicity @nntaleb @ole_b_peters https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1031216346095386624   Permalink 9:30 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Traditionally, learned pple & erudites have voiced contempt for the half-read or semi-learned, such as journo @JonahNRO, never for the non-read person of action. Semi-learned pple s.a. Goldberg resemble cars with two wheels missing. You are much better off walking. https://twitter.com/JonahNRO/status/1031157357991092224   Permalink 8:32 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Skin in the game in Lebanese proverbs: bil 7ikam l-Lébnéniyyé: + Ma bi7ékkak illa difrak + S2al mjarréb wla tes2al 7akim + Ghaltét l-shater 2alf ghalta (shater hown = “khabir”) + Kill shi rkhis ghalé + Iza ma kébrét ma-zéghrét (nonlinearity) Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Here is @Michael_Spagat, @sapinker’s support, pestering us for data in order to find “flaws”… doesn’t understand the stochasticity of sample correlation, which inspired this talk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&frags=pl%2Cwn   Permalink 5:53 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) There is something green about “quant” @Michael_Spagat and this paper (cont) https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1029092945088131072   Permalink 5:51 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Addition https://twitter.com/ionlyshort/status/1031131593748959232   Permalink 4:56 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nice to meet twitter friends in person https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1030878532891815936   Permalink 11:14 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@nntaleb A lot of antiwar people in DC… pic.twitter.com/uzXh7vIvUF Permalink 10:17 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb at #RonPaul! pic.twitter.com/xc1MfQvoxJ Permalink 8:52 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@ggreenwald Almost 100,000 people re-tweeted @JohnBrennan moronically & recklessly accusing Trump of *treason* for his Helsinki press conference, only for him now to casually admit it wasn’t & deny he said it. Brennan is a pathological liar, a torture advocate, a killer & a #Resistance icon: https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1030842945333805056   Permalink 8:49 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@SocratesSophia @nntaleb thanks for publicly resisting Monsanto before anyone mainstream did. Thanks also for resisting over educated close minds with their own academic languagem You’ve exemplified courage and now the tide is turning in your favour. Also, God is important. Thank you!! Permalink 4:26 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@SocratesSophia9 @nntaleb thanks for publicly resisting Monsanto before anyone mainstream did. Thanks also for resisting over educated close minds with their own academic languagem You’ve exemplified courage and now the tide is turning in your favour. Also, God is important. Thank you!! Permalink 4:26 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@nntaleb (I don’t like to see my own books in ky library) Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Unfortunately, in my own house, I can’t display my own books… https://twitter.com/larsgrossmith/status/1030502501089390592   Permalink 10:50 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally! The Black Swan man is about Bitcoin. (still that waist is that of a dance instructor) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1030414802928263168   Permalink 7:52 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Dynamics of Complex Systems pages 131-2: Time histories of stochastic dynamical systems (Surprise: they are equivalent to equilibrium ensembles, but unusual ones). pic.twitter.com/lASoDK0LmO Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Bayer: investors coming out of denial, slowly realizing that GMOs are the scam of the century. pic.twitter.com/z4eQHBGFR6 Permalink 3:47 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid ML METHODS AND FORECASTING Two interesting reports discuss AI/ML and their relevance to real life problems https://www.oreilly.com/ideas/why-we-need-to-think-differently-about-ai?utm_medium=email&utm_source=topic+optin&utm_campaign=awareness&utm_content=20180813+ai+nl&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTXpZME5EWmxOV1UwTURKbSIsInQiOiJ0cnRsZkgrdzBsZk93dkpSXC9ZWXdNendLQVRQQzQzRXp2OEsxbkFBOUZCVnpKdkdGK3h3UUNteTE1aE5OQWdxcEJqUVJ1c3MzeUV1SHFzM3ZxOEVPM21VOG5RRFlrcXNTZzdDSTNJVytYcUFcL2c0YXVVVStnK1pSZGtydGxNdzlvIn0%3D   https://www.stateof.ai/   These reports confirm our papers about the poor performance of ML models http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018300785   Permalink 1:03 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb While Monsanto can lobby in DC, bully, soft-bribe & manipulate regulators, and intimidate & smears scientists (like yours truly), Bayer as a foreign-owned corporation can’t easily do so. Bayer lost ~20% since the Monsanto trial (another 4% today). pic.twitter.com/JqLLX7L8Gg Permalink 12:47 PM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If, in some wealthy communities, you run into people who look like cousins, it is more probable that they use the same plastic surgeon. Permalink 10:36 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Some mathematics behind the simulation. pic.twitter.com/6CHV2V8hD5 Permalink 10:17 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Mathematical Finance Du Jour. Where I show how a power law mimics stochastic volatility. pic.twitter.com/h4GjdYlsHW Permalink 10:09 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@RobertKennedyJr Wow! #Monsanto loses another court case over its widely used weed killer. #MonsantoTrial https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Monsanto-loses-another-court-case-over-its-widely-13159459.php   Permalink 9:06 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Does someone have data on the longevity of airline pilots (jet engine). We have data for flight attendants & radiation therapists, but pilots have 1) lower load, 2) aren’t allowed to take sleeping pills. cc:@Mangan150 @GuruAnaerobic @MichaelSagnerMD https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1011244554622676992   Permalink 7:02 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb During Roman times, children’s educators were usually slaves. Nothing has changed. The principal thing a slave can teach children is how to not be free and make the best of it. In other words, how to think like a slave. Gabish? https://twitter.com/MatthewAckerman/status/1030083875756814336   Permalink 6:34 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Getting ready to go to the city with the highest density of rent seekers, to deliver a lecktchur on hidden rent seeking & the effect on systemic risk. Will also talk about regulatory recapture: Monsanto owns the EPA/FDA but NOT the court system; how common law is robust. https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1022942029184163841   Permalink 5:59 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb There is something irremediably sad at an atheist’s funeral. Permalink 5:13 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb And no, most humans do NOT want to be liberated from monotonous tasks, except for (parts of) the weekend. Most want the soothing predictability of a schedule, even those who call themselves “adventurers”. Permalink 5:02 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Routine is effortless. Most humans, alas, prefer to expend physical, never intellectual energy. Creating requires much, much more effort. https://twitter.com/jackdcowling/status/1030058263193300993   Permalink 4:55 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The boss: Antonio. pic.twitter.com/TzSBNrRoZV Permalink 5:07 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Squid Ink, finally. California looks Mediterranean, ma non è la cosa reale. Nova York looks nonMed, but it’s just an accident of geography. pic.twitter.com/6ZV8h18Xqt Permalink 5:01 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@The_Cyrenian While the ignorant masses were busy watching Obama dance on Ellen and crack jokes on Jimmy Fallon, my fellow Syrian Christians and I were suffering at the hands of #Obama and #Hillary’s genocidal foreign-policy: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/15/world/middleeast/syria-isis-assyrian-christians.html   Permalink 1:42 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The counter coup-d’etat is completed. https://www.rt.com/usa/436054-trump-revokes-cia-brennan-clearance/   Permalink 1:25 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Any work you do in the comfort of a routine risks being taken over by a robot. Permalink 12:30 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The answer to Maestro Bogomolny who has time to critique it in Heaven: Finally found the probabilistic interpretation: the Cantelli bound. pic.twitter.com/5iFOE4yuiO Permalink 10:44 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Ole, nobody ever broke a mafia & rent-seeking clubs by being “generous and kind”! Nudgeboys Thaler & Sunstein feel entitled to manipulate citizens, increasing tail risk! Sunstein wants to prevent citizens from knowing if food has GMOs When you go, go for the jugular! Permalink 10:13 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@DrMichaelBonner I owe all my academic success to the squat and the deadlift: https://twitter.com/FrontiersIn/status/1006064896453349376   Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I’m out of here. pic.twitter.com/jTGwJ95HEt Permalink 5:54 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The cult of the youth (by the youth) results from an elementary logical fallacy. If 90% of successful innovations come from the young, less than 1/1000 of innovations by youth work. Statistically, youth correlates w/mediocrity, sloth, physical weakness, & lack of creativity. Permalink 5:00 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Computational irreducibility: by @stephen_wolfram , explains why the consequences of some stuff like GMOs cannot be understood the way Monsanto claims… https://twitter.com/complexity_labs/status/1029110374937911296   Permalink 9:13 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb And (aggressively) vegetarian. Permalink 8:21 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb San Francisco: tatooed millennials with the wrong type of attitude problem, overcrowding in overpriced tenements. Permalink 7:44 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@Decafquest “As for scholars, I respect their labour and have drawn great benefits from it, but the fact is that at the banquet of philosophy they are neither the cooks nor the gourmets but the waiters that run between the two.” – Bryan Magee #skininthegame #philosophy #academia Permalink 2:27 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@GMWatch Corruption of science by the agrochemical industry: #Monsanto flooded scientific journals with ghostwritten articles https://www.gmwatch.org/en/news/latest-news/18408-the-monsanto-papers-poisoning-the-scientific-well   New peer-reviewed source details Monsanto’s deceptive activities ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/W6QaY06ZdB”>  pic.twitter.com/W6QaY06ZdB Permalink 7:28 AM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb At the core of what pple are not getting (from @ole_b_peters expl.) is that making $110 vs losing $100 with 50% probability is not a state-space issue, but part of a sequential procedure dynamically repeated over time, with required edge (here $5) changing as one makes or loses. Permalink 5:41 AM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR “mni7” in Lebanese, meaning “fine”, does not seem to come from the Arabic المَنْحُ: العطاء (grant), rather from from the Aramaic “peaceful”,”content”, Heb מָנוֹחַ (unless I am mistaken, cc:@Jonassibony ) pic.twitter.com/cGqIxhSpAn Permalink 11:30 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The powerful thing about this inequality is that, for finite samples Xs= {X_1, X_2,…,X_n}, w/average m, n odd (for small samples) and Xi copies of X drawn from ANY probability distribution in R, not even IID, E((Xs-m)^2)>Median(Xs)^2, even if all moments of X are infinite! Permalink 7:23 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally started a math “blog”. There are incomplete problems by @CutTheKnotMath. cc:@SvetlanaBogom13, @gcfr20, @mikeandallie, @long, @octonion, etc. https://fattailsandotherissues.wordpress.com/2018/08/13/maestro-bogomolnys-last-quiz/   Permalink 5:46 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Where some aspects of the point are fleshed out https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 4:32 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Why Nudge and Behavioral Economics are PseudoScience, a summary pic.twitter.com/oMkd1IMQq4 Permalink 4:28 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Ole Peters quietly informing nudgeboy @R_Thaler that his understanding of his own subject matter (probabilistic decision making) is highly deficient. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1028916116507246593   Permalink 4:08 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Mr @teppofelin, one never debates a bulls***ter. Permalink 4:50 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@primalpoly We’re recruiting subjects aged 18+ for a psychology study on religious art. It’s an online survey that takes about 45 minutes. It includes ratings and memory tests for about 90 religious images. If interested, please go to https://esurvey.unm.edu/opinio/s?s=93060   Permalink 4:04 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb About 6 y ago, a B-School prof, @teppofelin, BS vendor type, couldn’t get #Antifragile & was nasty about it. He was teaching “entrepreneurship” while being on a salary. Academics don’t notice these things. Permalink 4:00 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You are more likely to change your mind from a bad argument from someone on your initial side than a good argument from someone on the other side. Permalink 2:28 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@Lentejitas These are some of @nntaleb’s Black Swans ;-) Have a good night! pic.twitter.com/PBhoPBkwl9 Permalink 1:29 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb For some reason B-School Profs (living on charities) think they are smarter (less “irrational”) than real world risk takers when they are clueless about the math (ergodicity+fat tails). Flaws by finance prof (@WGoetzmann) who think TBS is an “airport book” pic.twitter.com/ilxSy4GqEx Permalink 12:04 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Next step: Business Schools; ban teaching by nonpractitioners. https://twitter.com/doshijatin/status/1028689718140174336   Permalink 11:20 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@EdLatimore “Ironically, by being beggars, they had the equivalent of ‘f*** you money’, which we can more easily get by being at the lowest rung than by joining the income-dependent classes.” @nntaleb, Skin in The Game Permalink 8:30 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Posted TECHNICAL INCERTO, VOL 1: THE STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS (~300 pages) https://www.academia.edu/37221402/TECHNICAL_INCERTO_VOL_1_THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS?s=t   via @academia Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Our planet has many more trees than 35 years ago! Looks like people notice deforestation, but not reforestation. Media & UN reports by self serving bureaucrats who want to “solve” your problems. ALWAYS get stuff by systematic analysis, NEVER piecemeal observations. pic.twitter.com/6a8uEj7iPM Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Localism ≠ Nationalism @nntaleb L maxalliye ≠ l çawmiyye https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1002949896209600512   Permalink 2:39 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@KenDBerryMD Retweet if you think we need Nassim Taleb to help us straighten out medical/nutrition research!!! Permalink 6:43 PM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I am very rude to *high status* people who are rude to waiters/waitresses. Usually twice as rude. Sometimes three times, just to make sure. You cannot believe how many pple on the “left” are rude to waiters, as they feel their “mission” insulates them from humans #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/MsBlaireWhite/status/1027976344569704448   Permalink 12:15 PM – 11 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Çahammiyet l kitébé bel lebnéné, video la Nassim Taleb: #lebanese #lebnene https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI   Permalink 10:58 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Page 10… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ludicfallacy #antifragile #infinitegames #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/vIMigj3S05 Permalink 10:16 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb That’s next https://twitter.com/ocrashad/status/1028323587092930560?s=21   Permalink 10:07 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/gmwatch/status/1028316002415792128?s=21   Permalink 10:05 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@M_Gauche “We define “rude” less by the words used than by the status of the recipient.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:21 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You lower *regulatory recapture* by having fewer regulations (as w/medication: only when the court/tort system doesn’t help). Put skin into the game of corporations. ( Pple hearing my shouts when the news hit wondered what soccer game I was following) https://twitter.com/WaqasHaque411/status/1028266120648843264   Permalink 6:42 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@JohnMinehan1 Which is Nicholas Nassim Taleb’s point . . . . https://twitter.com/2peterharris/status/1028235466036969472   Permalink 4:28 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@Decafquest ma2al zghir katabto 3an 2este3mel l lebnene ka legha maktoobe. Shu ra2yak? @nntaleb #lebanese #lebanon #lebnene https://medium.com/@mahmoud.rasmi/bel-lebnene-5cc091b0c9fc   Permalink 4:12 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This nightmare “Chased by Monsanto” (from @black_swan_man) is over. Now time for payback. I mean find the *individuals* involved. pic.twitter.com/cAQPK3KEN0 Permalink 3:20 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Sweet victory…. It is particularly powerful that the legal system (torts) protects citizens, while regulators are in collusion w/industry: the EPA/FDA let Monsanto ghostwrite their rules. Regulators are bribed by industry as they get hired later as payback. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 5:55 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@nntaleb They didn’t just lose a case. They lost another 100. Now I will go after the shills who contacted NYU. Permalink 3:29 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@nntaleb CHAMPAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGNE!!!!!!!!!!!!! Monsanto lost the trial. It is not about Glyphosate. It’s that the manipulation of science by corporations, the bullying of scientists does not pay! https://twitter.com/careygillam/status/1028039905471950849   Permalink 3:26 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@OpenSecretsDC OpenSecrets searchable ‘Foreign Lobby Watch’ database makes it easier than ever to browse through disclosures related to foreign influence in the US: http://crp.org/faraw   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/B2dLWFBz6t”>  pic.twitter.com/B2dLWFBz6t Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Aug 2018

@PenguinVerlag In welcher Welt leben wir – was meint ihr? @nntaleb verrät uns seine Sicht in »Das Risiko und sein Preis«. Ab 27.08. erhältlich: http://bit.ly/DasRisikoundseinPreis   #SkinintheGame ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/HoHIHr28uq”>  pic.twitter.com/HoHIHr28uq Permalink 6:17 AM – 10 Aug 2018

@alessabocchi Can someone check if the NYT has recently taken any funds from Saudi Arabia? https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1027585342029918213   Permalink 1:41 PM – 9 Aug 2018

@georgemacgill Today I Learnt: WITTGENSTEIN’S RULER Don’t just use your beliefs to measure reality, but also use reality to measure your beliefs. If the IDIOT keeps getting it right, it might not be them who is the idiot @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/zQPHIH2Oc3 Permalink 12:38 PM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What Saudi Barbaria is doing to Canada is simple signaling: to show other states what’s in store if they criticize their human rights. The problem of course … Permalink 11:37 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You may use his Lebanese dictionary and write in social media script (3al 3adé). My opinion is that an Ataturk style precise top-down alphabet is not necessary. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI&t=3s&frags=pl%2Cwn   Permalink 11:06 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@holland_tom I remember in the summer of 2014 the eyes of the world being so fixed on Gaza – where, brutal though the conflict was, no genocide was remotely being attempted – that it pretty much ignored Sinjar, where the Yazidis were absolutely the targets of genocide. https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1027438325769101319   Permalink 9:47 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb So effectively, thanks to Roger Makhluf, Lebanese ceased to be a dialect on Aug 8, 2018. Permalink 9:30 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@UnSubtleDesi [Archives] Economists bullshit for a living : ⁦@nntaleb⁩ gives Kaushik Basu a lesson on ‘Skin in the Game’ http://www.opindia.com/2018/04/economists-bullshit-for-a-living-nn-taleb-gives-kaushik-basu-a-lesson-on-skin-in-the-game/   Permalink 8:29 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally, A Lebanese-English dictionary/Lexicon. 630 pages! (Arabists won’t like it) https://www.amazon.com/Lebanese-English-Lexicon-Rojee-Makluuf-ebook/dp/B07G9PJTQ2/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1533825238&sr=8-1&keywords=Rojee+makluuf&dpID=31gqiw2AeiL&preST=_SY445_QL70_&dpSrc=srch   Permalink 7:36 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@baielala “Almost all those caught making a logical fallacy interpret it as a ‘disagreement’.” – @nntaleb https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIODdHYl95d1dWNE0/edit   Permalink 7:25 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb We are prone to epidemics of fallacies (scientism, universalism, academism, psychosociologism, stateworshipism), but not epidemics of wisdom, as nature filters out those with bad immune system. Permalink 5:34 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The NYT needs to sell more and more subscriptions to stay in the same place. Concave growth. (The rise in stock price was largely due to the maahket’s.) Indeed, this is a dying business. Unethical journalism doesn’t pay. pic.twitter.com/n0a50DQ0LP Permalink 4:14 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Financial Maahkets aren’t fooled by the NYT “growth” story: + Close to saturation for digital subscriptions ~(40% from crossword puzzles!), now < logarithmic. + Rev. growth is not good. Ain’t a tech company! + The “Anti-Trump” strategy deligitimizes long term. https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1027181710419607558   Permalink 3:31 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@NonMeek Here’s my contribution to this thread. As a cartoonist my main challenge is to simplify any issue as much as possible without losing any of the meaning. I hope I succeeded in that with this comic strip. #LifeExpectancy #Math pic.twitter.com/aut5o1o46k Permalink 3:21 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@ClarkeMicah Still maundering, Professor? Amazed by my own magnanimity, I am *still* offering you the chance to withdraw the foolish defamatory statement which you are incapable of substantiating. Come on, man, do what you need to do. https://twitter.com/scottlucas_ea/status/1027304494680432641   Permalink 10:55 PM – 8 Aug 2018

@ClarkeMicah Still maundering, Professor? Amazed by my own magnanimity, I am *still* offering you the chance to withdraw the foolish defamatory statement which you are incapable of substantiating. Come on, man, do what you need to do. https://twitter.com/ScottLucas_EA/status/1027304494680432641   Permalink 10:55 PM – 8 Aug 2018

@nntaleb When your company is public you become the slave/depend on the opinion of the most clueless but vocal journalist, say @BretStephensNYT. No matter how rich, you never have f*** you money. Go private; f*** them. https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1026912973120462848   Permalink 9:06 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The point as presented 20 year ago in Fooled by Randomness. pic.twitter.com/kEupc0Emn0 Permalink 1:10 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is the offending statement. It is not whether the number is true or false, it is that the REASONING is false. pic.twitter.com/AXRb2kA9pg Permalink 12:31 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The correct (evolutionary) way to see what happens is: +Life expectancy while reaching full (socially accepted) reproductive age, i.e. ~15-25. Which will be much higher: In the previous example it would be 67. So childhood mortality removed 27 years of “average” life exp! Permalink 12:14 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Simply, if 40% died in childbirth (or very young, which is about historical number), 50% died at 60, and 10% died at 92, the “average” life expectation would be ~40. Childhood mortalily hugely skews the average. Permalink 12:04 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Thread of pple on twitter who understand statistics (and the notion of average) much much better than the @nytimes : life expectancy = 40 means a lot of infant mortality, not that people didn’t live long. Please, please, please avoid the NY Times. Please. https://twitter.com/owenezell/status/1026789999629484033   Permalink 8:54 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3500 years of Phoenician wine pic.twitter.com/U2ZMQY3wsm Permalink 7:03 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Now a disclaimer: one greatgrandmother and one great great grandmother are from Douma. (Douma is Greek Orthodox/Melkite) Permalink 4:52 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The surrounding gorges. Douma’s advantage is that it is out of the way and on the local top of a mountain; no ski no nonsense. pic.twitter.com/2937ddCftZ Permalink 4:24 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Tomb ~ 600 (priest of the goddess of health) pic.twitter.com/GKFFVviKHA Permalink 3:28 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Douma, most beautiful village both architecturally and scenically. Former Byzantine health spot. Church built in 1610. pic.twitter.com/DvMve2Gj7v Permalink 3:23 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Turned out the main beneficiaries of fossil fuel were the trees: people used to log for cooking/heating. At least until now. Permalink 11:26 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Even if one accepts risk aversion, it doesn’t work the way nudgeboy @R_Thaler thinks it does. pic.twitter.com/Swdu4yUnV9 Permalink 11:16 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The vicious thing in @josephinequinn’s Vox article is that she doesn’t flatly deny that Phoenicians existed; she just packages her anachronistic argument (absence of passport & flag-style national “identity”) to make you believe that they never existed. Shoddy. Permalink 2:31 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb More than 5,500 years https://twitter.com/richmcgaha/status/1026547483462139904   Permalink 12:57 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The cartoonist understands my language ( “myopic bureaucrat imbeciles” ) but doesn’t get that a thin waist is not for weightlifters. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1026297804648525826   Permalink 12:01 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@sidpathak92 What a Saudi govt handle tweeted before deleting. But sure it is the Persians who are the enemy. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/i7VCgqeWfU Permalink 10:18 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@RogerCremades How do #rigidity traps work in #socio-#ecological #systems? Amazingly, this comics explains it with pristine clarity. I congratulate @black_swan_man & @nntaleb. More on rigidity traps, the #adaptivecycle, risks, insurance and climate change here https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0044-2.epdf?author_access_token=ba94udDKN3bSyWKsBb_MotRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PqLfoL8EXoMy7UUI3hBF7YmO2O68NxhD7gHhYj07eiUujlnPShfbXLDBBFLWmtEilUAjHdpztO6tX-E8oMp4VMjRrrbhToNEIA4yRz0mpXcg%3D%3D   https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1026297804648525826   Permalink 7:11 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@thackerpd Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) as Invasive Species http://www.aiscience.org/journal/paperInfo/jepsd?paperId=3925   You’ll never see any #GMO promoting journalist discuss this paper, because the only thing they yammer about is “#GMO products are safe to consume, so end of story.” Permalink 5:24 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Why did the Crisis happen? This is from my testimony, what Obama’s bureaucrats did not want to report. (Also I withdrew the paper from a journal owing to stupid comments by referee, republished elsewhere) pic.twitter.com/kB6gWX7De5 Permalink 12:39 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Turned out, @realDavidGal has shown, “Risk Aversion” is a fiction. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/why-the-most-important-idea-in-behavioral-decision-making-is-a-fallacy/?sf194849524=1   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/901472828310114304   Permalink 12:26 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@ziadaboujamra @nntaleb The view from Dhour El Choueir yesterday. Green indeed! pic.twitter.com/UpWvZA1YbS Permalink 11:10 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Page 9… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #yellowstoneeffect #wildfire #endthefed #daoofcapital #antifragile pic.twitter.com/sB6VKLR3Q2 Permalink 7:43 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@SamuelGWalters Alexander Bogomolny liked inequalities, so here is one on his behalf. (I came across it while doing estimate calculations.) @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb @SvetlanaBogom13 #math #FunFact pic.twitter.com/sICzlqaXwS Permalink 1:53 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb A lot of docs written in Phoenician were lost, but a lot of Phoenicians wrote in lingua franca later (Greek) as was the norm in Levant after 3nd Century BC, same as Indians writing in English now. Does it make Josephus count as non Jewish? Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Lack of skin in the game. (Photo taken before heavy deadlifting phase) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nassim-taleb-no-one-who-caused-the-crisis-paid-any-price-vbj2lzc6d   Permalink 12:24 PM – 5 Aug 2018

Nocera, GMOs, IYIs, MSM, Flaneuring, Tamar Haspel, Clarissa Ward, “Nudge” | Twitter

@nntaleb One of the “failures” sold a company for billions. There exists no business in which people can be as clueless as journos, yet survive. Permalink 1:47 PM – 15 Jul 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A tragedy. Could not just “like” ithttps://twitter.com/republicofmath/status/886261006007242752   Permalink 12:49 PM – 15 Jul 2017

@theenviousleft 97% of media professionals donated to Clinton. Learn about skin in the game and stop lying you obfuscating dunce. @nntaleb Permalink 10:18 AM – 15 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Bullshitters like you, indeed. Permalink 9:24 AM – 15 Jul 2017

@nntaleb This is Sophistry 101 by a BSTimes journo. Typical BSTimes. We are talking abt threat to the West, not threat to Russia. (fake use of SITG)https://twitter.com/GlennThrush/status/886251135144800257   Permalink 9:18 AM – 15 Jul 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Cyclic Inequality In Three Variables with Constraints http://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/SimplifiedSitaru2.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/gpaRsyYypU”>  pic.twitter.com/gpaRsyYypU Permalink 6:48 AM – 15 Jul 2017

@nntaleb 2) Cont Election Paper pic.twitter.com/TFVgDvBA3S Permalink 5:48 AM – 15 Jul 2017

@nntaleb 1) Submitted this version of the Election paper to a journal. pic.twitter.com/EGHkyIZe0F Permalink 5:47 AM – 15 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Three hours.https://twitter.com/StoolPoop/status/885986219405918208   Permalink 7:20 PM – 14 Jul 2017

@nntaleb BSTimes journo looks at failed AynRanders. He didn’t realize they WERE already successful. No cohort comparison.https://nyti.ms/2vgJeR5   Permalink 1:14 PM – 14 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the Game.https://twitter.com/catoletters/status/885948326163689472   Permalink 1:00 PM – 14 Jul 2017

@nntaleb So we now can quantify by how much books on “RISK” using “empiricism” like Fischhoff’s & oth. nonrisktaking academics are clueless. pic.twitter.com/A0Q4vNP9NY Permalink 11:32 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Finally found a closed-form for by how much we underestimate the true extreme using a “empirical distribution” (Reason: rainy Friday in NY.) pic.twitter.com/GxShlFKTuV Permalink 11:16 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@ebruenner just concluded v. long twitter debate w/ pro gmo. 100% arguments based on: -credentialism -unquestionable NECESSITY of novel foods Permalink 11:08 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@MastaKace Haplogroup J2 is generally associated with the Romans, it’s also found in high frequencies in area around Dardanelles & Constantinople (1) pic.twitter.com/uMo0iGUCSL Permalink 9:58 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@NonMeek .@nntaleb Another attempt at the Alan Blinder Problem with your helpful ideas hopefully I’m getting it right this time. #rentseeking pic.twitter.com/WhvHtCj71B Permalink 9:44 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@nntaleb There is NO EVIDENCE whatsoever abt safety of GMOs. Not ONE risk study. Nor does hiding stuff abt Glyphosate help much Keep trying Monsanto! pic.twitter.com/aVWv2rfqa9 Permalink 5:01 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Charlatan invoke such things as “potential to feed pple” in place of PROOF it won’t cause disaster for same pple. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  https://twitter.com/potatodoctor/status/885814957211832322   Permalink 4:52 AM – 14 Jul 2017

@fortierfinance NNT thread one of few places throughout my day I can reliably find justice being authentically served-world seems bit more sane as a result Permalink 11:59 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb IYI Steil, don’t flatter yourself, I am not messing with you bec I am angry; I just take immense pleasure in busting BS vendors. Kapish? Permalink 11:55 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb As I said, media commentators & former Gawker journalists seem have a contagious overpowering concern with… substance.https://twitter.com/AdamWeinstein/status/885567669273059328   Permalink 11:39 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb By definition IYIs (Intellectuals Yet Idiots) provide responses that are independent of the question. Permalink 11:34 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Do you have a remark that’s not some asinine platitudinous reply lifted from “Response Manual for low IQ Thinkers for All Circumstances?” Permalink 11:31 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Petty, obsessive, substance-free criticism of Trump by petit-intellectuals (IYIs) has been fueling him, & destroying “intellectualism”.https://twitter.com/BennSteil/status/885562728282304512   Permalink 11:22 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb NonFiction bestsellers are NOT correlated w/MSM: Books against bloated gov, Milo, Gingrich, etc. People vote with their wallet. MSM is dead.https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/885504822643834883   Permalink 9:34 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Proved that the so-called “Empirical Distribution” is not empirical, the “robust” is not robust. This is a scratchpad pic.twitter.com/TZBDsvEaKW Permalink 9:28 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb The daily quizzes by maestro @CutTheKnotMath are like finding a parking spot in NYC: Never easy, never impossible.https://twitter.com/cuttheknotmath/status/884853542451892224   Permalink 7:18 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@GuruAnaerobic A fat-tailed process can masquerade as a thin-tailed one bt not the reverse @nntaleb If more experts knew this they wouldn’t talk so much BS Permalink 7:13 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@nntaleb It isn’t natural to know when your vacation/week end terminates. Modern life creates Sunday night blues. Flaneuring removes such a specter Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Jul 2017

@eldivyn In every undertaking, the more humans try to be demi-gods, the more they become half-monsters.”- @nntaleb Permalink 1:46 PM – 12 Jul 2017

@nntaleb To paraphrase Feynman, math like s*x, is something you do for the fun, with potential side effects. Permalink 10:28 AM – 12 Jul 2017

@nntaleb But @TamarHaspel is a Monsanto shill! Permalink 9:58 AM – 12 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Applied math is math + skin in the game.https://twitter.com/johndcook/status/885164373743980545   Permalink 8:59 AM – 12 Jul 2017

@DanielLMcAdams More photos the MSM is desperate to hide…can’t let middle America know the truth about Syria…https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/884443152278532103   Permalink 7:10 AM – 12 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Free markets eventually lead to free speech. Censorship by social media not compatible w/ free enterprise! Markets => Ideas, not reverse.https://twitter.com/Imamofpeace/status/885111752098070530   Permalink 5:23 AM – 12 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Anyone who listens to an economist has some incurable condition. As to economists…https://twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/885059554869997574   Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 Jul 2017

@nntaleb My enemies give me the reputation of a total as***le. The bonus is that people are always surprised when I am nice to them.https://twitter.com/wileecoyotewec/status/884881383776296960   Permalink 2:40 PM – 11 Jul 2017

@gfriend “Peace: Neither Ink nor Blood” by @nntaleb (and why the Arabs are fighting to the last Palestinian)https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 2:37 PM – 11 Jul 2017

@Theodore8 as close as I will ever get to @nntaleb #cuttlefish #ink #greece #kalokéri pic.twitter.com/lgqha7G3sm Permalink 11:53 AM – 11 Jul 2017

@garyruskin How the #GMO industry gets journalists to buy its messages, by @marionnestlehttp://bit.ly/2v8Pdrg   Permalink 9:17 AM – 11 Jul 2017

@nntaleb [Thread on Pyrrhic Victories] “If we win one more victory, we are doomed!” Si alteram talem victoriam reporta, vero mea erit pernicies Permalink 7:37 AM – 11 Jul 2017

@dannyhakim Key part of agrochem PR strategy is claiming that serious reporting on GMO’s/pesticides akin to being anti-vax or a climate change denier. Permalink 7:26 AM – 11 Jul 2017

@nntaleb The most serious error in statistics is taking properties out of a textbook and applying it mechanistically (a la Pinker boy). pic.twitter.com/bVuLOfwXRK Permalink 6:54 AM – 11 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Wondering why journos love GMOs? I am witness to a bit of this.http://progressive.org/magazine/how-the-biotech-industry-cultivates-positive-media/#.WWSwwM170Ds.twitter   Permalink 4:04 AM – 11 Jul 2017

@nntaleb What should I discuss? Permalink 1:31 PM – 10 Jul 2017

@nntaleb In about 9 minutes will start my econtalk with@EconTalker pic.twitter.com/nf7WdcviSJ Permalink 1:19 PM – 10 Jul 2017

@rpodgornik ..or possibly: Si Athenas et Spartam, quod aiunt, ne clamor ridentem. Permalink 10:05 AM – 10 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Heuristic: when picking a restaurant in an unfamiliar city, don’t look at the menu, look at the clients. Permalink 9:53 AM – 10 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Same as fake entrepreneurs only interested in packaging and selling companies: fake scholars only interested in credentials/local status. Permalink 9:27 AM – 10 Jul 2017

@nntaleb The vanquished cries, but the victor doesn’t laugh. Roman proverbhttps://twitter.com/johnrobb/status/884416954693505024   Permalink 7:26 AM – 10 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Wrong. Data shows that once settled, people tend to stay… like an occupied spot. “Invasions” overstated. Languages move faster than geneshttps://twitter.com/vrints_annemie/status/884399982073315328   Permalink 6:28 AM – 10 Jul 2017

@RealDHilburn Btw, this Chesterton quote reminds me of the Taleb test to detect ISIS sympathizers among refugees: pic.twitter.com/TPHWJ0BNKR Permalink 8:38 AM – 9 Jul 2017

@nntaleb A good database of ALL payments frm Qatar & oth Gulf sources to @Charles_Lister & employers for promoting Al-Qaeda? Same for @MiddleEastInsthttps://twitter.com/Desertlady11/status/883227758675058688   Permalink 7:42 AM – 9 Jul 2017

@nntaleb 4 hours lefthttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/883766265524965379   Permalink 7:31 AM – 9 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Getting to *prove* how tail risk estimation methods are flawed in the econ & behavioral econ literature. pic.twitter.com/XRiEzihhDW Permalink 5:22 AM – 9 Jul 2017

@mikeandallie We are having similar mornings. I just spent 2 hrs with Nassim Taleb’s latest paper pic.twitter.com/KoA1m4Vpl4 Permalink 4:57 AM – 9 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Strangely, @clarissaward from CNN posts nothing but fraudulous news/Jihadi propaganda that spreads & never retracts. Why it keep going? Permalink 12:14 PM – 8 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Visit to Kazakstan last mont. No tie, of course. Lost 6 lbs on a zero-carb (no squid ink) diet since. pic.twitter.com/irhCTMHMrf Permalink 11:24 AM – 8 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Exercise: Is uncertainty purely epistemic limitation? Think about it: destroys free will, requires teleology, unescapable preordained fatehttps://twitter.com/ProbFact/status/883743278008553472   Permalink 10:53 AM – 8 Jul 2017

@nntaleb And I am going to ask a “consultant” to tawk about Real Life? Permalink 10:14 AM – 8 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/DwmFOhTebf Permalink 7:19 AM – 8 Jul 2017

@nntaleb Why” Nudge” and much of Behavioral Econ is bullshit science. pic.twitter.com/QFGQBUXnxN Permalink 7:10 AM – 8 Jul 2017

@nntaleb The reason Cyprus is at a stalemate: negociators are …bureaucrats. Clueless bureaucrats & political “scientists”. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac  https://twitter.com/financecyprus/status/883670265586167812   Permalink 5:55 AM – 8 Jul 2017

Tail Probabilities, Ahiqar the Aramaean | Facebook

Finally put my finger on what is wrong with the common belief in psychological findings that people “irrationally” overestimate tail probabilities, calling it a “bias”. Simply, these experimenters assume that people make a single decision in their lifetime! The entire field of psychology of decisions missed the point.*

If you take the risk –any risk — *repeatedly*, the way to count is in exposure per lifespan. You get diverging results.

It turns out that your grandmother is more rational and more *scientific* than Cass Sunstein who advised Obama on “behavioral biases” of humans, trying to “nudge” us out of them. I am fed up with the class of people who think they know better than us what is in our best interest.


*(By entire I mean *entire*, no exception. They may handle biases differently but their equations have the same flaw.)


When the rich eats a snake, people think it’s for its properties; when the poor does it: because of hunger.

The Wisdom of Ahiqar the Aramaean.
(Incidentally many of Aesop’s fables come from him.)