Tag Archives: psychology

Murray, Psychology, Quillette, Jesuits, Monsanto, Peterson, Harris, Silver, IQ Eugenics, Wahabis, Tulsi, Lehmann | Twitter

@nntaleb Nordic supremacy or North Atlantic supremacy (i.e. Northen Europe). Not Western. They don’t have monopoly of the “West”. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1160600695072010241   Permalink 3:21 PM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Note: I do not disrespect psychologists because I don’t know their works. It is precisely BECAUSE I read their crap. Between 2002 and 2005½ I read >200 psychology books and took notes. (Here 3 books by Pinker @sapinker who claims I didn’t read his junk) pic.twitter.com/EH1VNTZgU4 Permalink 3:18 PM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The problem isn’t that the Quillette pple are very, very incompetent. The problem is that the fans and followers are also very, very stupid. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1160558238309462016   Permalink 7:35 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb So many claims are so viciously false… Babylonians, Chinese, and Indians had explicit logical systems. pic.twitter.com/68WMKDjOzz Permalink 5:52 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb عيد مبارك Permalink 5:40 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I will definitely pay @joelwatsonfish to nitpick my manuscripts for mistakes (fellow has been trying to take revenge for Quillette). Payoff is yuuge if 1 in 10 of his mistakes turns out to actually be mistake. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   https://twitter.com/joelwatsonfish/status/1159941673591459841   Permalink 5:25 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Eid Mubarak to all. Permalink 5:22 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Holy Roman Empire was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire. Constantinople continued the Roman empire. Same usurpation with the EU. https://twitter.com/byzbastard/status/1160273117337587713?s=21   Permalink 2:12 PM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Whether the list was drawn by geography or ethnity, 15-18 mistakes. Murray is as ignorant in the humanities as he is in statistics. Permalink 2:04 PM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My father once told me: “Never antagonize Jesuits; their erudition is so wide and so deep they know things you’ll never suspect they know.” Permalink 11:42 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb More mistakes (total 18): Zeno of Elea was from Campania, S. of Naples. I am embarrassed I did not detect it at first reading. Permalink 11:30 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Further, a classical Greek would be furious to become part of this “West” to give a pedigree to Mountebank Murray’s ancestors & justify their “genetics” theories. Greeks were Meds, first and last and closer to Persia/Mesopotamia where the action was. Permalink 11:20 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Averroes, like Maimonides was born in Cordoba. Try to call him “Spanish”, Westerner! Some elementary mistakes anyone with intellect would detect: Philo Judaeus ‘The Jew” would be… Greek? Permalink 11:17 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I debated Murrat and noted that for a “historian” he was woefully lacking in erudition. His definition of the “West” = whatever became successful. He didn’t read r Greek & misunderstood Herodotus. Was told to take it easy on him bec. “libertarian” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1079549079099768832?s=20   Permalink 11:00 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Mountebank race monger Charles Murray @charlesmurray has a list of “Human Accomplishments” by “Westerners” He has 15 mistakes on a single page! Tertullian was Berber Saadia was Bagdadi/Egyptian AlKindi was Arabian Poseidonius was Syrian Mani was Persian Porphyrius Phoenician pic.twitter.com/rSisK6SeQ4 Permalink 10:49 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I prefer the company of people who make me smile to those who make me laugh. Permalink 9:12 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK. Conspiracy perhaps. But never never underestimate incompetence. Permalink 7:14 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Never assume conspiracy when the vastly more obvious explanation should be incompetence. https://twitter.com/BrittPettibone/status/1160182637862014976   Permalink 6:37 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The “Harvard Prof” has, statistically, < 25% chance of being right (less since Harvard profs higher % chronically wrong). A practice that survived millennia across populations that themselves survived has >.999 of being safe. Nature is robust statistically. #Lindy #Antifragile https://twitter.com/neorevolt/status/1160163806451916807   Permalink 5:34 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@Monsantobuster Quillette promotes “IQ-denial=science denial”, “refusal of scientific racism=refusal of science”. Like Monsanto w/glyphosate=science Claire Lehman herself said her mission is to defend inherited genetic differences in intelligence all the while denying they are into RACISM. pic.twitter.com/IcwDrMb9n4 Permalink 3:23 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb People loooooove the idea of BS busting. Until they find out that they are the ones being busted. Permalink 12:46 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie I’m super excited about the results in this paper – they solved a problem that drew me into finance in the late 1990s. Can’t wait to play around the results over the next few weeks. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1159545366330642434   Permalink 12:36 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Posted on ArXiv the paper on tail option pricing & shopping for a journal. https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.02347   6th Journal pub in 2019! PS- Peer-review of technical work is often necessary but never sufficient (can be a cover for psych BS). It is not necessary if the proof is in the doc. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8Cm0Bqf8MI”>  pic.twitter.com/8Cm0Bqf8MI Permalink 12:22 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “2nd order effects: Once you make policy based on PICTURES of children victims, ALL parties will now produce pictures of children. ” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 11:04 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto’s campaign against U.S. Right to Know: key themes and documents via @USRightToKnow https://usrtk.org/our-investigations/monsanto-usrtk-foia/   Permalink 7:28 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “Being nice counts the most when you are nice to people ignored by others.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 7:00 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@NonMeek “Monsanto paid Google to promote search results for “Monsanto Glyphosate Carey Gillam” that criticized her work.” This is disturbing. Permalink 5:51 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Revealed: how Monsanto’s ‘intelligence center’ targeted journalists and activists [SUCH AS YOURS TRULY] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/07/monsanto-fusion-center-journalists-roundup-neil-young?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 5:28 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@Yazanator Joe Norman is doing amazing work with Nassim Taleb exposing the racist @Quillette agenda of fraudulent IQ superiority in different races and eugenics. Give the guy a follow, he also talks a lot about Complexity Science which is interesting. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1159412318775730178   Permalink 4:23 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PDF is (and will remain) freely available, @xtsop. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   https://twitter.com/xtsop/status/1159416035541487616   Permalink 4:05 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I myself lie about my age. For 20 years I have been using 1924 as a birthdate with journalists, people who don’t know how to mind their own business, and on social media. I shd be a centenarian before finishing the 2nd Technical Volume. https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1159074479194066944   Permalink 7:38 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Connecting the INCERTO to various research traditions pic.twitter.com/NTlUSEn9pj Permalink 4:00 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What I found disgusting about Peterson is that he made yuuuge $$$ from charity from kids who made much much less than he did. Like TV evangelists of the old days. Then I blocked him. Is Claire “Lehman Brothers” still shouting that she is not into a neoNazi eugenics agenda? https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1159214975887519746   Permalink 2:59 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@GuillPaquet You might be stacking sats but we at @BullBitcoin_ are stacking @nntaleb’s #Incerto Head of investments : @francispouliot_ pic.twitter.com/eNtXSUG4c6 Permalink 2:13 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I apologize. It was the Swiss. Permalink 10:58 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Voila, the Germans like combative rigor vs BS. https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/ist-der-intelligenzquotient-ein-pseudowissenschaftlicher-schwindel-nassim-taleb-geht-auf-konfrontation-mit-steven-pinker-und-anderen-helden-des-dark-web-ld.1450747?mktcid=smsh&mktcval=Twitter   Permalink 9:42 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Don’t read; reread. https://twitter.com/FlowPandito/status/1159039169211043843   Permalink 5:54 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ketchum ran the smear campaign against yours truly (1500 letters to the university plus all manner of negative comments on social media). https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1159067331315871744   Permalink 4:49 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@pauld198 that was a big mistake – you should have followed NNT’s advice ” don’t talk science with non-scientists” Permalink 10:41 PM – 6 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In my book Dynamic Hedging I show arbitrage bounds for correlations, a tutorial. We knew correlations were not transitive but the bounds were arbitrages. pic.twitter.com/ag59oBjRVs Permalink 11:17 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Terry Tao has a nice (but very technical write-up) on the transitivity of correlation. https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2014/06/05/when-is-correlation-transitive/   Permalink 11:13 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ. Here is another statistical error by IQ-Eugenists. Show the magnitude of the error (bounds on correlation) pic.twitter.com/uocognaol7 Permalink 11:03 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb RWRI has evolved into a scalable BS busting operation. All you need to do in life and business is spot BS; the rest takes care of itself. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1158007933717794818   Permalink 9:56 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Another example of why you cannot use statistical formulas without knowing probability. Majority of neuroscience papers miscalculate significance. pic.twitter.com/hJ0F9aoA5Y Permalink 7:59 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb It is a 10 sigma event or are you wrong about the world? Wittgenstein’s … https://youtu.be/k_lYeNuBTE8   via @YouTube Permalink 6:52 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My IQ piece: “To do well in life one needs to think independently. And one has to be a lunatic (or a psychologist) to believe that a standardized test will reveal independent thinking.” Edgar Morin (born Nahum) is a smart fellow. https://twitter.com/edgarmorinparis/status/1157958405878951936   Permalink 6:18 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@DaveGulimlim “My idea of the modern Stoic sage is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into information, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking.” Permalink 11:58 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I’ve never had a problem with people who disagree with me, contradict me or find mistakes. I just cannnnnnnnnnnot take BS. Yuuuuge allergy to BS. https://twitter.com/bmiloy/status/1157769951412801536   Permalink 3:44 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT: A Fall Evening Course in Syriac (Eastern Aramaic) in New York. Learn the ancient language of the Levant. I will be showing up once in a while to heckle George Kiraz (in Syriac). http://bethmardutho.org/mc/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um”>  pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um Permalink 12:53 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT: A Fall Evening Course in Syriac (Eastern Aramaic) in New York. Learn the ancient language of the Levant. I will be showing up once in a while to heckle George Kiraz (in Syriac). http://bethmardutho.org/mc/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um”>  pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um Permalink 12:53 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You know charlatan Sam Harris is lying because superstitious Eastern Mediterraneans never pass the salt (I am aggressively superstitious). Plus he offered to “bury the hatchet” and wrote this when I told him to f*** off. Permalink 8:01 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@sean_a_mcclure pic.twitter.com/TFUTbC2szX Permalink 7:35 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I need to buy mosquito repellent spray; but I am naturally a repellent to IYIs. They feel they are choking in my presence as I produced fumes only they can detect. 3 minutes and they are gone. Just consider the reaction of BSvendor Sam Harris pic.twitter.com/RBLj8Rryjy Permalink 6:46 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What annoys you more, + mosquitoes, or + IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) who discuss their elimination thinking they understand the consequences? Permalink 4:55 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What annoys you more, + mosquitoes, or + IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) who discuss their elimination thinking they understand the consequences? Permalink 4:55 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@VergilDen If Taleb calls you out on Twitter, best to meet with him privately to understand his position, lest you create a record on Twitter of your ignorance. Taleb knows the position of his opponents better than his opponents. Permalink 6:34 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those in interested in my fight with Nate Silver, a sequel –except that it got more technical. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1157399736980295680   Permalink 3:57 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The story with Nate Silver has another episode. Aubrey Clayton wrote to the journal in defense of Silver claiming flaws with my election paper. https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.01576   And I respond in the journal. https://www.academia.edu/39998351/All_Roads_Lead_to_Quantitative_Finance_Response_to_Clayton_   Permalink 2:16 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb We stopped responding when Lehman used the Blank Slate which is a straw man (almost noboby believes in the Blank Slate). Quillette’s followers might be as stupid as the editors (they are) & cheered; but it is the defense by Lehman that confirmed the sinister racial agenda! pic.twitter.com/rtBVWCPF2l Permalink 1:40 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Geneticists (this smart fellow) seem on same side of the IQ debate. But they miss a potent functional argument x-not- f(x). IQ could be as heritable as height. But the function of IQ, f(x), performance, is 1 correlation^2 removed (& is small). Yuuge! https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1155065639624695808?s=20   Permalink 1:29 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@financequant Trees protected against wind tend to fall over prematurely. Thus, trees gain from such disorder and stress. We need a good name for this. Anti-fragile, perhaps? @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1157351337639710721   Permalink 11:12 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Hell is to care about it. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1157150794099019778   Permalink 10:06 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Correction: maximum .12 of the Variance according to THEIR OWN research (the heritability metric, Falconer’s “h-square” is hard to map to standard variance). For me, because of adjustments, still <.02 Permalink 8:33 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #goldfinger #universalexports #cliffhanger pic.twitter.com/uiUO7UElzo Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@spyrosmakrid Today I received the royalty statement of “Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You” (it is a book about uncertainty and the role of luck) and remembered when Nassim visited us at INSEAD to help us promote the book. It is ten years since then and we all look so young. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/TPQtAmzfQ1 Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@normonics What this says is that on the most charitable read, the VAST MAJORITY of the phenomena in question are left unexplained, while the narratives being spun would have you believe we have a clear picture as to what is going on with “intelligence” and “heritability of intelligence” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1157245410303447040   Permalink 5:05 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “A prediction is wrong only if it costs you something. A prediction is right only if it makes you something. The rest is tawk. #skininthegame.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:22 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The IQ Eugenics “debate” is over, using psych’s own results. Best correlation psychs report IQ-performance (milit)=.5 (explains 25% of variance w/o my own adjustments). Heritability of IQ scores, again 25% of var. So for THEM genetics explains .06 of variance in BEST. for me:<.02 https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1157206500135317504   Permalink 4:03 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Food debasement (identical to currencies) Non-artisanal corporations w/MBA managers start substituting products progressively that imperceptibly worsen the product, until blowup. You start w/lemonade, then sell what passes for lemonade. Same as bankers hiding risk for a bonus. Permalink 3:44 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@RaniaKhalek The hostility on display from the anchor in this interview shows that they hate Tulsi Gabbard no matter what she says, and they hate her for her foreign policy views that antagonize against war https://twitter.com/msnbc/status/1157016332828925952   Permalink 2:34 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I mean sunflower oil not corn oil in France pic.twitter.com/3VU5sRMqxi Permalink 2:31 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The problem is that, except for sushi bars, one cannot eat out without inspecting the kitchen. Even “olive oil” is often debased, like a currency, with seed oil. We need a “seed oil detector” very badly. Permalink 2:02 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Just came back from East Med where one can escape seed oil. Avoiding France: + France: heavily marketing corn oil as “healthy” solution. Now invading French cooking replacing butter/lard. Air France’s olive oil is 66% corn oil! + Belgium: Fries no longer w/tallow, but seed oil. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1157086891633758209   Permalink 1:52 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “If you want people to buy a book, tell them it is overrated”. Bed of Procrustes pic.twitter.com/3DgvC088M5 Permalink 5:11 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@john_santin Just reading the book now, so let’s see if I’ve got this right . . . Fragile = Complaining about enemies Robust = Not having enemies Antifragile = Having enemies that complain about you Did I get it? What am I missing if not? Permalink 5:01 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@financequant The MSM is troubled. CNN averages an audience of ~700K. This number is beaten by a fair number #youtube accounts (I’m talking about those with serious content.) which are produced by tiny staffs. There are over 2M people paying to support content providers on Patreon. 1/2 Permalink 4:12 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@financequant If the Democrats put up Tulsi Gabbard for president they would win the White House. I would certainly vote for her. Alas, they will put up someone like Warren or, much worse, Sanders and commit political suicide. Forcing me again to vote for some third party candidate again. Permalink 1:41 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard We were all lied to. We were told that Saddam had WMD, was working w/ Al Qaeda & that this posed a threat to the American people. But not only have we not gone after Al Qaeda, they are stronger than they were on 9/11 #TULSI2020 #DemDebate http://tulsi.to/stand-with-tulsi   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/XrYhNbt85i”>  pic.twitter.com/XrYhNbt85i Permalink 12:18 AM – 1 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In other words if as @stuartjrichie claims IQ tests correlate at .8, you have a quite large uncertainty about your own IQ hence you should propagate to the performance. The overall correlation is not unconditional. Permalink 9:32 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So psychologist @stuartjrichie writes a book on IQ. In it he reveals that your own IQ tests correlate at .8— every time you take the test. He didn’t realize the need to discount accordingly correlations IQ-performance by devastating amounts. Psychology is astrology. Permalink 8:57 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@RandPaul I’m headed to the floor soon to speak on this budget “deal.” You would think in an era of renewed trillion-dollar budgets, in an era of $22 trillion debts, you would think SOMEONE in this body or in this town would make a deal to CUT spending. Watch here: https://www.c-span.org/congress/?chamber=senate   Permalink 8:31 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@nntaleb One lesson to everyone about #Antifragile and not just to “racemonger Claire” @clairlemon: Never claim to be antifragile and play victim. Never. Gabish? https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1156322427212722176   Permalink 8:31 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@CliffordAsness I’m in the minority I think, but out of so much great work I think this is one of ⁦@nntaleb⁩’s most subtle and important. Perfectly describes the social media veto given to a tiny minority. And subtly one of biggest threats to liberty. https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 5:27 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@hedging_reality Love the fact that @nntaleb clearly thinks for himself (understatement) and could not care any f*cking less wether one agrees with or approves of his positions, thoughts, or facts. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1156411907982667778   Permalink 9:57 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fucking moron it’s not a fight: it’s watching her do self-flagellation, which gets painful once it starts eliciting commiseration. Permalink 8:50 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “Progress, like evolution, must be neither too slow nor too fast. Too slow means extinction from lack of adaptation. Too fast prevents retaining the benefits of past improvements, hence, again, extinction.” – Nassim Taleb #progress Permalink 7:58 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@AaronAllisonCPA Celebrating my birthday with a little present to myself… Incerto, deluxe edition. Beautiful. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/RhFINguYme Permalink 1:36 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fundamental Risk Asymmetry: “No that’s too risky” & “I don’t know” are effectively the same statement. (see #Antifragile). Why? Because if I don’t know whether the plane/the food/the technology is safe or not, I don’t ride in it. pic.twitter.com/XSyMGkWE54 Permalink 9:36 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb She is so clueless and stressed out you need to take it easy on her. https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1156232905192026112   Permalink 9:30 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@Monsantobuster People who still have doubt that @clairlemon is into what Feynman calls “cargo cult”, the name for “scientism”. Prof Taleb is right you need to go to school finish your degrees and study something. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1156164287595012102   Permalink 8:59 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #universalexports #fightthefed #goldfinger pic.twitter.com/9al0XGT1zP Permalink 6:03 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No https://twitter.com/ACCapitalist/status/1155943171374768128   Permalink 4:38 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Heraklius wasted energy on the Persians his victory was Pyrrhic. It weakened him. https://twitter.com/rcssmedasmith/status/1156130132953665537   Permalink 2:19 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb At least two Roman emperors were either killed or captured by the Persians on that 700 year long Persian war. Who is the second? https://twitter.com/manimanavi/status/1156125697078943744   Permalink 2:04 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb At the request on Quillette followers I took an IQ test. Guess my score: Permalink 1:00 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Not counting Cyrus’ invasion of Babylon and the Levant: he defeated the Babylonians freed the Jews and brought them back home. Permalink 12:51 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The Iranian waged a 800 year war ag Romans. The Iranian frontier bankrupted Byzantium and led to the Arab invasion. Same with the Ottomans. Border stayed firm. The mistake everyone makes is to underestimate how stubborn Persia is https://twitter.com/daniellmcadams/status/1155964776440184832   Permalink 12:22 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is turning out to be a farce. For @clairlemon correlation and estimation theory should be outside mathematics. Off to meet @spyrosmakrid in Athens to tawk about the M5 competition. https://twitter.com/monsantobuster/status/1156061528757587968   Permalink 9:42 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Turned out these ladies are in the business of ML for sending SP500 trading orders to a hedge fund either in Italy or in Texas. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155823345193107456   Permalink 7:26 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@Monsantobuster What Claire Lehman, dropout from a Masters in Forensic Psychology calls “garbled nonsense” of Prof. Taleb is called in some circles: MATHEMATICS. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155955172448673793   Permalink 7:23 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Peterson a bon vivant? Part of the reason I blocked Peterson is because of his dullness. https://twitter.com/iozjrok/status/1155945094475739136   Permalink 7:11 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I block/mute people when I have no more use for them, nothing to learn from their arguments: Jordan Peterson, Impostor Molyneux, Mountebank Charles Murray, RacePromoter @clairlemon Not Sailer, Cochran, etc. Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Actually worse than I claimed. https://twitter.com/pzalloua/status/1155892239928832000   Permalink 10:38 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Yes the book I use for entropy https://books.google.com.lb/books/about/Elements_of_Information_Theory.html?id=VWq5GG6ycxMC&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false   Permalink 9:38 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The owners of my favorite squid ink place, Kelly’s in Beirut, said they refuse to serve squid ink out of season. Other restaurants have it frozen from the winter. pic.twitter.com/wUs88OJ3Ty Permalink 9:14 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@normonics Meta-IQ test: you are given a sequence: 2, 4, 8, 16, … what is the next item? Permalink 7:50 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Taking 3 semesters off from teaching at NYU, officially to use freed time to “study Greek-Latin-Aramaic”. Will return in the Spring of 2021 with a course of informational entropy. Permalink 7:18 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@aldertrack In Greek κ will be pronounced like a G when it follows a ν, so Θα πάω στην Καλαμάτα is pronounced as Tha pao steen Galamata Permalink 7:13 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The discussion with Quillette and “Race Supremacy Claire” @clairlemon has ended with this. https://twitter.com/oceanclub/status/1155781059797278725   Permalink 6:52 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@UntergrundmannG Taleb has an updated post up at medium that takes care of most of this. You could take the time to weigh that in against this all over again. And if you come back here in a few days, I may have a post up about how this is a trivial misunderstanding of NNT’s case. Quantitatively. Permalink 6:40 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Was getting hate tweets from Quillette clients at a rate of 1 per min, many using racial epithets to claim that @clairlemon is not into neoNazi agenda. Slowed down to about 10/min. Next, w/@normonics, preparing a formal technical paper (complex systems) abt the IQ fraud. Permalink 6:40 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Correctio: predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli. Permalink 6:29 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@Ol_Wall There’s a difference between something having a genetic component and proving / publishing based on it. Of course there’s a genetic component to behaviour!! That doesn’t mean we can reliably know what that is – or should publish those shaky claims. Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Extrrrrrremely impressed with the sophistication of these machine-learning researchers in the Sunni enclave of Tripoli, Lebanon. They know the problems with distance metrics inside out. They are working to produce entropy maps. pic.twitter.com/l25u9k1C2v Permalink 5:52 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@EbbcMunich Our session last Tuesday was a great workshop based on Antifragile by @nntaleb For more info see https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6559842939617456128   Permalink 5:46 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So Quillette’s IQ “scientific” racism is more scientific than the Nazi’s racism/racial superiority theories? https://twitter.com/proclete/status/1155813118150422528?s=20   Permalink 5:15 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Is @clairlemon still denying that her Quillete project is into a neo-Nazi “scientific” racism (“race realism”) agenda? Permalink 5:08 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@scmarco69 Cf cet article technique de Taleb: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155735795325636609   qui démontre que toute utilisation du QI dans le monde réel est à peu près vouée à l’échec. Permalink 4:49 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@Extrachelle Food of the Gods, literally. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155751198785449984   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hoyfVstWKq”>  pic.twitter.com/hoyfVstWKq Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@normonics Intelligence is WAY too important and essential for what it means to be human to cede to the low-dimensional Pinker-style quillette IQ pseudointellectuals Permalink 6:04 PM – 28 Jul 2019

@normonics Why is @nntaleb calling @Quillette promotion of race science via IQ a neo-nazi agenda? Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No. https://twitter.com/Jazzy_ggxx/status/1155534241372999680   Permalink 10:47 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb He is hired. His thread explains much of my position on IQ research. Add that 1) I don’t deny heritability of *something* in non-feedback linear environments, 2) Higher dimensions are not tractable (curse of dimensionality) & #Quilletteidiots don’t get it https://twitter.com/sean_a_mcclure/status/1155487369019232259?s=20   Permalink 10:32 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@HenryJOncology #skininthegame @nntaleb tells a more important issue: no one except #patients benefit from using hard endpoints that result in trial failure. Everyone else benefits with a positive result in USA. Perverse incentives to create bad trials with weak endpoints. @VincentRK https://twitter.com/HenryJOncology/status/1155525572271005697   Permalink 10:21 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@EricTopol He’s my new friend! Thanks @JpMikhaiel for your perceptive take, especially for bringing in @nntaleb’s important work. And kudos @kevinmd for hosting a site that gives medical students the chance to get their views out https://twitter.com/hipp0kratis/status/1155518666815000576   Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@DaveGulimlim Reading Antifragile by @nntaleb tonight. I’m about to reach halfway and the insights are staggering. This might be one of the most influential books for me this year. “I want to live happily in a world I don’t understand.” https://twitter.com/DaveGulimlim/status/1155485670019747840/photo/1 href=” http://pic.twitter.com/7MtEosIItd  pic.twitter.com/vjtmKyi3yb”> pic.twitter.com/7MtEosIItd pic.twitter.com/vjtmKyi3ybPermalink 7:35 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I have always fought those who accuse others Nazism & eugenics. So far I’ve made one single accusation of neo-Nazi agenda: @clairlemon & the broad @Quillette crowd, for their closet promotion of pseudoscientific ideas about IQ, race, etc., under cover of defense of free-speech. https://twitter.com/Ol_Wall/status/1155475727979970562   Permalink 7:01 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Perhaps before lecturing people about “understanding reality”, Ms. Lehmann should make some effort in getting schooling in elementary statistics. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155472268295725056?s=20   Permalink 6:48 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@ReadTrying The problem with Taleb isnt that he’s an asshole. He is an asshole. The problem with Taleb is that he’s an asshole and he’s right. Permalink 6:09 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is the kind of crap I’ve been getting nonstop from Quilette followers. pic.twitter.com/5js8w1xrooPermalink 5:13 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@DA_Stockman Tulsi Gabbard’s Suit Against Google Is A Double Plus Good https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/tulsi-gabbards-suit-against-google-is-a-double-plus-good/   Permalink 4:21 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Answer @SamuelGWalters. For all x>0. Now the left side? pic.twitter.com/repUnkL7pRPermalink 3:57 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb How many fucking times do I have to repeat that I have public tutorial lectures on probability? https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww   https://twitter.com/raushan2020/status/1155425057663062016   Permalink 3:45 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Math Problem du jour: Can you make the right side tighter? https://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/1154611803323686913   Permalink 3:26 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I said Greek not just Orthodox because of a cluster of inherited Byzantine stuff: the architecture (the dome is Byzantine), the prayer (initial Greek prayer included prostration), etc. Permalink 2:45 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb To continue the thread. Lehman is a fraud, & not smart enough to be caught. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155404493867106304?s=20   Permalink 2:13 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Nationalists, falsely accused of racism, hold “all children are equal but each under obligation to give preference to their own” @Quilette’s full neo-Nazi approach: “these people are genetically inferior; let us find the science ( and fake defense of free speech) to back it up” Permalink 1:56 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb A nonvote for the official democrat will effectively be a half-vote for Trump. Gabish? Permalink 1:28 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those who doubt the Greek Orthodox origin of the female veil (Iranian style)… Church in Amioun. pic.twitter.com/M5LfM7mRlMPermalink 12:36 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb My speculation that there will be a growing closet Trump support in the far left is getting more and more confirmation. https://twitter.com/asadabukhalil/status/1155225067644542976   Permalink 3:00 PM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Yes I know I am rude by calling IQ people imbeciles (which they are). But they are classifying entire populations as idiots. People who already have enough problems. I am going to upset the “Fake free-speech” @Quillette crowd & “Klueeeeless Claire” @clairlemon a bit more. Permalink 9:36 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb BTّW for those who want to see my thingy with IQ, here is the paper, heading towards the half a million readers. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb “Klueless Claire” Lehman, @clairlemon you are so kluuuuless abt Popper/falsification it’s not even funny. Statistical claims in psych are not testable in the Popperian sense, & if they are, can be easily falsified by showing the metric is uninformative. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155084999328014336?s=20   Permalink 5:11 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Also impossible to teach charlatans that “handwaving” means exactly what THEY do for a living. @clairlemon should stop Quillette, and take a study sabbatical (5-10 years) to do some elementary statistics, data science, etc., before uttering such verbiage. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155078139585761281?s=20   Permalink 4:50 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Impossible to teach charlatans the very notion that SCIENCE=RIGOR, little else. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155078139585761281?s=20   Permalink 4:44 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@oskarth Spotted in Taiwan in traditional Chinese! Works for asymmetrical one arm overhead presses too. pic.twitter.com/m7G988cCVgPermalink 4:19 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Friends, any idea how to make @wolfram Mathematica data synchronous? One single missing date makes comparisons very hard. pic.twitter.com/3Zais8pSpAPermalink 4:14 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those into some math, here is why social scientists don’t seem to know what correlation means. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 3:53 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Finally submitted to journal my paper showing psychological research on forecasting is largely fiction. (Includes @Ptetlock’s superforekast not even mentioned in paper) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cWgl3ZJP9K”>  pic.twitter.com/cWgl3ZJP9K Permalink 3:46 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I am not discounting heredity. But the research extending it to such matters as “intelligence” is largely fraud. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155063096731480065?s=20   Permalink 3:37 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Behavioral genetics is largely an intellectual fraud. Resisting promoting them, @clairlemon, even if you like their message. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155043769370025984   Permalink 3:19 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@trishankkarthik First impressions on the @SS_strength seminar: There are a lot of similarities between @CoachRippetoe and @nntaleb: they both say what they like fearlessly, do not suffer BS gladly (can tell by passionate anger), and are funny as hell while delivering powerful truths Permalink 9:24 PM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Philological coincidences, 1 In French, crier is to shout, in English (primarily) to shed tears. In Lebanese, 3ayyet is to shout, in Egyptian 3ayyat is to shed tears. Permalink 3:50 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Lamma 7ada bi 2llak lbet beytak, bi2akkidlak inno hayda mush baytak. Permalink 3:40 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The principal benefit of Mathematica, as @financequant figured out, is that everything is precisely defined. Mathematical papers often have shortcuts or fuzzy definitions (particularly when dealing with vectors and matrices); @Wolfram Mathematica has to be exact. Permalink 2:44 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb We respond to Clayton’s comment on my paper in defense of “Klueless Nate” Silver. pic.twitter.com/RkLg6L31kz Permalink 1:23 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The problem is not babbling journalists. The problem is that the entire intelligentsia has been saying the same crap. Commentary on the events of the Trump presidency provide the best test of mental faculties. https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1154086058918916097   Permalink 4:13 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb James @drjamesdinic is figuring out something central. What do ALL elements of this list have in common? These are ULTRA MODERN, not #Lindy. Worse than sugar: seed oils touted as “healthy”(olive/avoc./cocon. oils are not seed oils). And seed oils are everywhere in restaurants. https://twitter.com/drjamesdinic/status/1154337958385917952   Permalink 3:59 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@CarstenBKK Here is @nntaleb et. al. take on climate change. I can’t phrase it any better: https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7nqiuU1S2i”>  pic.twitter.com/7nqiuU1S2i Permalink 3:06 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The principle of revelation of preferences (#skininthegame) is what people do, where people go, how they vote with their feet, not what’s published some paper with pictures. https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1154460234842165249   Permalink 1:56 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@lhamtil Whenever people suggest my sector & industry analysis is tired, I refer them to this passage by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/YAiX3pywVn Permalink 1:18 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Breaking: Tulsi sues Google for interference and manipulation! https://www.tulsi2020.com/tulsi-vs-google?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=190725_bigtech   Permalink 10:43 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard 2/3 – #Google controls 88% of internet search in the US — giving it control over our access to information. Google’s arbitrary suspension of the account of a presidential candidate should be of concern to all Americans. http://tulsi.to/tulsi-vs-google   Permalink 10:33 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard TULSI2020: In the hours following the 1st debate, while millions of Americans searched for info about Tulsi, Google suspended her search ad account w/o explanation. It is vital to our democracy that big tech companies can’t affect the outcome of elections http://tulsi.to/tulsi-vs-google   Permalink 10:33 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@paulportesi Thread by @nntaleb: “1- Never take any advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. 2- Never take any financial advice from someone who hasr a living. 3- The only thing a business school professor can teach you is how to become a business school pr []” https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1093163028739248129.html   Permalink 7:10 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Invent a probability distribution that’s neither thin nor fat tailed. [Jetlag in Northern Phoenicia] pic.twitter.com/7XMYmK1Pb1 Permalink 4:07 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) I asked Ridley for tail risk analysis for GMO crops. He showed a few statistically lame papers showing “benefits”, and some scientism. And if there is no tail risk analysis it’s because GMO peddlers do not even know what tail risk means. https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1154126020942991360?s=20   Permalink 3:11 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Drove to Ehden from the coast. Tallied the names of villages on the way. Not only there was NOT a single village with Arab name, but there were: +Balamand (Belmont, Crusader) +Rushdebbin (Roche des Pins, Crusader) +Kousba (my mother’s) (Cuspa, Roman) Stop the Arabist fraud. Permalink 2:57 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Boris Johnson’s position on GMOs/biotech which effectively centralize and delocalize crops (puts nature in the hands of technocorps) is opposite to his position on Brexit which effectively localist & against socioeconomic centralization (puts Britain in the hands of technocrats)! Permalink 2:50 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@davidsarac I am getting to appreciate how highly educated people are the most dangerous thing on the planet. In a same way how excess of order produces evil, too much exposure to academic environment produces retardation of mental faculties @normonics @nntaleb @GreenRupertRead https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1154126020942991360   Permalink 12:12 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@Petepicasso10 Intellectuals yet idiots like @nntaleb would say. https://twitter.com/Suffragentleman/status/1153727052601856003   Permalink 7:49 PM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ron Paul & @DanielLMcAdams are my filter in the middle of the noise. https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1154101196921212930   Permalink 1:40 PM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Correction: I meant I’d rather disagree with Andrew Gelman (whom I respect) than agree with Jordan Peterson (whom I despise). Gabish? Permalink 11:38 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is certain that Ms @RaniaKhalek has no notion of what a fallacy means. The problem isn’t convincing her & other intellectual rejects in her group, but making people with brains are aware of these fraudulent slogans thrown at them. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1152234669783560192?s=20   Permalink 9:34 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Started to ship https://amzn.to/2XLMaTF   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1142416150254575617   Permalink 6:57 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@ggreenwald It’s also bizarre to watch House Democrats constantly herald Mueller’s career as one of great “moral rectitude.” Does this little episode just not count at all? pic.twitter.com/fTenOKlgbi Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I’d rather disagree with Andrew Gelman (whom I respect) than with Jordan Peterson (whom I despise). Gabish? https://twitter.com/DavidRedelingh2/status/1154003900879527936   Permalink 5:35 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Mistakes: In Lebanese, l not el; 3arabiyyé not siyyara. But good effort. Permalink 2:03 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Mathematica is addictive and makes math addictive. https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/1153766126855307265   Permalink 2:01 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman’s discussion with Nassim Nicholas Taleb about sexism, racism and retrospective bigoteering in the U.S. Declaration of Independence https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/07/23/discussion-with-nassim-taleb-about-sexism-and-racism-in-the-declaration-of-independence/#.XTd6s5XxrMc.twitter   Permalink 2:24 PM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb We are clearly winning. The geopolitical state can no longer control the language. Bottom up wins in the age of social media. https://twitter.com/ChristoChammas/status/1153683744403992579   Permalink 10:05 AM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb If someone acts like a shill, odds are he/she is a shill. (Dan Gardner busted) https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1153475301063745536   Permalink 4:40 AM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb CNN, the designation “congresswoman of color” is itself racist. pic.twitter.com/TREH8dRRZt Permalink 7:23 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) Never trust a journalist unless she’s your mother. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1152195094398873602   Permalink 7:09 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) Thomas “the Chin” Friedman… https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1152195094398873602   Permalink 7:09 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Virtue is the difference between what you do in public and what you do in private. Permalink 3:21 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I finally got that Bolton doesn’t exist as an advisor; he is at best a negotiation tool. He is just someone who barks very loud and incoherently so Trump can make a deal, if possible. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1153390958798680065   Permalink 12:51 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Done with the paper on forecasting, debunking the BS by “Phil the rat” Tetlock @ptetlock. Addresses some problems with @robinhanson and his claims about prediction markets. https://www.academia.edu/38962327/On_the_Statistical_Differences_between_Binary_Forecasts_and_Real_World_Payoffs   Permalink 12:18 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #universalexports #goldfinger pic.twitter.com/ZfNrAcQu7R Permalink 7:24 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You don’t need mathematics to be rigorous; you can achieve formalism w/legal documents, where everything is precisely defined. Contracts & codes from Theodosius to Cambaceres→elimination of VERBALISM from documents. I learned that w/financial term sheets. Everything is mapped. Permalink 6:19 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Verbalism, a general definition. Does it supercede all other “fallacies” in critical thinking made in intellectual discourse? pic.twitter.com/quMrzs9kji Permalink 5:57 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@jimmy_wales Is there a way to get back to the old twitter interface? Permalink 3:51 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “You may eventually forgive and befriend someone who harmed you, never someone who bored you.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:11 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb “Pharma is better at invending diseases for its existing treatments, than treatments for existing diseases” Bed of Procrustes https://twitter.com/Firefly_fan/status/1153043992327675904   Permalink 1:49 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is a 10 sigma event? Wittgenstein’s Ruler https://youtu.be/k_lYeNuBTE8   Permalink 12:52 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You can only disagree with people who are wrong, not those who are “not even wrong”. When you engage a charlatan (as with @snowded for the above derivations) he represents your debunking his fallacies for a “disagreement”. Permalink 7:51 AM – 21 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:07 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Doesn’t look like your regular IT professional. At 73. https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1152240931015462914   Permalink 5:21 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@financequant Sigh… If it NEVER works then why? https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1152687931183816714   Permalink 2:47 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This has been on for 5 years, @Adam_Bat https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww/videos   https://twitter.com/Adam_Bat/status/1152643920339308545   Permalink 11:22 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:10 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb God made mathematics so you can tell me where I am wrong; the fragility of a derivation is transparent for all to see. Formalism allows the slightest nonsense to show. Some econs/psychs produce obscure equations to hide nonsense. They get caught: you can debunk using math! Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, This is my precise definitions for Fragility, Robustness, & Antifragility. The paper is here. This will be part of the 2nd vol of the Technical Incerto (Includes #Lindy) called: “Fragility Risk and Convexity”. (link: https://www.dropbox.com/s/y8s7qz2o0fa0hhs/Fragility%20Taleb%20Douady%202012.pdf?dl=0  ) http://dropbox.com/s/y8s7qz2o0fa0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uVIugpXzen”>  pic.twitter.com/uVIugpXzen Permalink 5:14 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Science is not about authority, consensus, and verbalisms, but proofs and derivations. Permalink 3:42 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Snowden, I said it before: you are a handwaving bullshitter. Show us some mathematical formalism if you can or shut the fuck up. Permalink 3:37 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I meant squatting closer to your max: when you are in the lower position. Permalink 2:07 PM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It’s there. Just a small suggestion: perhaps you should read the book before lecktschuring its author. Permalink 1:21 PM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) This is exactly why academic tests select for those nerdy enough be motivated during the test; no translation to mental powers in real life. 2) @CoachRippetoe reports the same “panic” while deadlifting close to your max: you need to stand up, failure is no option. https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1138205473889558528   Permalink 12:02 PM – 19 Jul 2019

Tetlock, Payoffs, Urbanism, Arbitrage, Estonia, IQ, LOCALISM, Assange, Psychology, Christakis, Belgrade, Nate Silver, Pinker, @AOC , Peterson | Twitter

@nntaleb 15 years ago, I went into psychology trying to figure out how humans misunderstand probability. All I figured out is how psychologists don’t understand probability. Permalink 9:39 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Our great ally… https://twitter.com/marwa__osman/status/1120712087255252993   Permalink 9:37 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb More precise & accurate representation of the mistake; fixed typos. pic.twitter.com/Z2lqshFo3y Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cleaner @ptetlock’s (Phil the rat) mistake. [more precise] Science is hard Risk is hard. pic.twitter.com/Z3VYClErdD Permalink 7:56 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Exact Distribution of different types of payoffs & their conflation in the verbalistic psychology literature. [ref to my bone with @Ptetlock and the forecasting gurus who live on a salary (nonprofit)] pic.twitter.com/7LH5Xz9VWi Permalink 6:37 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “If you worry about your reputation you don’t deserve to have one.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #reputation Permalink 12:15 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 4/4 understanding @nntaleb ‘s recent paper here is also critically important to understanding what can go wrong when you approximate financial markets with brownian motion: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1117456873605742592   Permalink 12:06 PM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Markers of aging: 1- You stop learning something new 2- You talk too much about aging 3- The things you forget aren’t the things you should be forgetting Permalink 11:50 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Why I call @Ptetlock a rat. He SIGNED on this paper then renegged & stabbed me in the back WITHOUT even contacting me (to get forecasting contracts). pic.twitter.com/qxnjM8yKVT Permalink 10:54 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Can someone ask @michaelshermer to explain the equations he is commenting on? Twitter is not generous with BS vendors. https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/1120363967358963714   Permalink 9:43 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb I am Christian. I live 11 miles from Salafis. I have skin in the game. And I tell you in past 10y Shiites paid a horrible price. Same during Ottoman era. Permalink 7:22 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Actually… Shiites! They paid the heaviest price. Salafis have been butchering them without much outcry. https://twitter.com/cernovich/status/1120162013857161218   Permalink 6:28 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@normonics To @nntaleb’s point: you can only learn from an academic how to be an academic Instead of conveying embodied knowhow from a place of deep understanding, an academic will formulate answers to “essay questions” and “explain his reasoning” in order to keep his GPA up https://twitter.com/hostageklller/status/1119367322379202562   Permalink 6:01 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typo: the integration is over any subset of A. Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb At the center of my problem with Phil “the rat” Tetlock @Ptetlock is only a matter of…elementary calculus upon which EVERYTHING in his “forecasting” work is built. Elementary. pic.twitter.com/Dn67PIPOz4 Permalink 5:39 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@TalebQuotes Decline starts with the replacement of dreams with memories and ends with the replacement of memories with other memories. Permalink 10:42 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “When you define yourself as “localist”, nobody frames you in the “partisan” box; both the “left” & the “right” take you for one of them. The only people in favor of centralization are lobbyists, bureaucrats, & DC parasites. Yet the world is centralizing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:31 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Where I show situations (very common in real life) where you NEED to be a poor forecaster to do well in life and business, and vice versa. [Long proofs] (with Some comments on the “scholarship” of the dishonorable Phil “the rat” Tetlock @PTetlock) pic.twitter.com/4Qhnclxlwt Permalink 3:44 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@sustain05 “Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn’t: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times …causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today.” ~ Nassim Nicholas Taleb pic.twitter.com/zPSyBz6Fz7 Permalink 1:52 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@GOATProfessor Seeing Holy Week tweets about Jesus being persecuted by “White patriarchy” of the Roman Empire. That is false history and this piece from @nntaleb shows the problematic nature of that claim. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “We are prone to epidemics of fallacies (scientism, universalism, academism, psychosociologism, stateworshipism), but not epidemics of wisdom, as nature filters out those with bad immune system.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:41 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday for those who celebrate it today. Permalink 5:13 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb We should have a plan to eliminate Google. https://twitter.com/business/status/1119831495529594882   Permalink 2:23 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@kpchand07 I would urge you to read about IQ as it is a discredited and pseudo-science technique. Many “studies” checking country level IQ’s use “proxy” tests to establish IQ. IQ itself is information-less. @nntaleb has written in this area: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 12:27 PM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb THE CARPENTER FALLACY In our Precautionary Paper we warn against using “experts” in biology to get tail risks of GMOs, even if they aren’t shills: just as a carpenter is not the one to use to compute probabilities of tail payoffs at a roulette table. https://twitter.com/Benjami47068297/status/1119594805422624768   Permalink 6:41 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Our current system (urbanism) is incapable of learning from its mistakes. https://www.baconsrebellion.com/wp/antifragile-urbanism-skin-in-the-game-and-building-what-works/   Permalink 6:37 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No! Rationality is more rigorous than shallow @R_Thaler BS https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bil Lébnéné (In Lebanese): Iza shéra3t l fehmén ana brba7 Iza shéra3t l finnas huwwé byerba7 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114185871841026049   Permalink 4:30 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@bWestenra “There is no such thing as ‘rationality’ of a belief, there is rationality of action.” – @nntaleb, via @rorysutherland 6/12 Permalink 2:34 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@dianadarke #NotreDame #Architecture #Europe #Syria Acknowledging Europe’s debt to earlier cultures – via a recent interview with @TheNationalUAE https://www.thenational.ae/arts-culture/qalb-loze-inside-the-syrian-church-that-influenced-notre-dame-s-architecture-1.851385   Permalink 2:21 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cc:@spyrosmakrid Permalink 4:34 AM – 19 Apr 2019

@nntaleb #Lindy Permalink 3:54 AM – 19 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is more technically, a RE-conversion. At least, the way converts themselves present it. And ironically it may be the result of and reaction to Wahabisms. https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Muslims-convert-to-Christianity-in-Syrian-town-once-besieged-by-ISIS-587021   Permalink 7:03 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The problem of these Middleburry idiots is that by attacking and muzzling @CharlesMurray they made a hero out of a mountebank (and, as far as his report of my encounter with him, a bald-faced fabricator). https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1118995502408671234   Permalink 5:42 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Obama, many of the destroyed Syrian churches and monuments PRECEDE Notre Dame. https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1118945629517099009   Permalink 2:32 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Arbitrage boundary pic.twitter.com/dsJGLqqxaE Permalink 1:55 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@GregorySMcMurry According to the De Broglie–Bohm theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Broglie%E2%80%93Bohm_theory   Black Swan Man is correct. Any information that we could possibly obtain from the past wouldn’t help us because there are nonlocal hidden variables uniting our present & the past into one totality https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1118861754015080449   Permalink 1:37 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Better have these just OK, plus friends/family, plus ability to sleep well, than be a hot shot, billionaire, or King. @VerginDen has is right. https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1118868537706205186   Permalink 9:28 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Estonia. https://twitter.com/graafik/status/1118832590432215041   Permalink 6:43 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #blackswanmobile #timetravel #flaneuring #AmorFati pic.twitter.com/bVNkdyV05s Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@ThomasGrava La vraie différence en politique n’est pas une gradation “droite” vs “gauche” mais plutôt “Grecque” vs “Romaine”. “Grecque” préférant la théorie à la pratique. “Romaine” préférant la pratique à la théorie. (Théorie de la ‘Décentralisation Fractale’ @nntaleb) pic.twitter.com/HL8VbFTiRE Permalink 3:59 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Alas… https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1118503155581407232   Permalink 8:13 AM – 17 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Ship of Theseus. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1118349975606325248   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb ENTROPY DU JOUR The information content of your tweet is a (very) nonlinear function of the probability a subject NOT being discussed, or the language used not being bland & common. Same for conversation. Same for everything. Especially business. pic.twitter.com/2dYRqWnbJk Permalink 6:58 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “The problem isn’t being on a salary. The problem is enjoying it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #money Permalink 4:42 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 5 They don’t tell you that you are more likely + to learn a foreign language in a bar than in a classroom + to learn mathematics while trading than doing homework + that schoolteachers are a great model of what not to become when you grow up Permalink 2:58 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb I am surprised it is taking so long before someone finds in Hugo’s novel Notre Dame de Paris (The Hunchback of ND) a sentence that vaguely predicts yesterday’s fire. Permalink 2:19 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate). The best so far this season! pic.twitter.com/Phf0NRRn1K Permalink 12:48 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate). The best so far this season! pic.twitter.com/Phf0NRRn1K Permalink 12:48 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@FattestFatTony The pencil necks dont understand, @nntaleb is what the Jamaicans call a #Shotta… Likkle man, nah test nah #Shotta… https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1118226014113607681   Permalink 12:43 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@StillmanMD Doctors aren’t just #fooledbyrandomness, they’re taken for a ride by lying #BigPharma! @normonics @nntaleb @trishankkarthik @FattestFatTony https://twitter.com/JAMAInternalMed/status/1118167592710103043   Permalink 11:36 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 4 That debt helps growth & “innovation” (promoted by bankers) + Neither the Industrial Revolution (Brittain) nor the technological one (Silicon Valley) were financed by debt. + Debt is for wars, crony capitalism, bailing out friendly companies. Permalink 10:36 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@EthanHBellamy Love this from @nntaleb. I’m the Chairman Mao of parenting. pic.twitter.com/O5HeNnQVan Permalink 8:03 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb SCHOLARSHIPS FOR WOMEN ————————————- Scholarships are available for women & Syrian students (& others from similar places) for the 11th program, RWRI-11, June 24-28 in NYC Please mail a (short) CV to the coordinator. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 7:09 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb In general, when people selfstyle themselves “entrepreneur”, “polymath”, or something of the sort, they’re not. Real entrepreneurs calls themselves “restaurant chain CEO”, “Ski equipment manufacturer”, “kidney imaging importer”… Permalink 4:58 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty, https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Politics_and_Ethics_under_Uncertainty   https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/1118117227285426176   Permalink 4:46 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@tripoli187 So what are you trying to imply? That northern euros can lay claim to Mediterranean & near eastern civilisations of ancient antiquity, when culturally & racially they were not the same people & played no role? Permalink 12:14 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@normonics “A paper should be written like a car manual not a f#*$in chapter in a romance novel” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:53 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@NonMeek Learning about #IQ by turning @nntaleb teachings into cartoons. Simplifying to under 50 words without losing any content is hard. I hope I nailed it [IQ correlates, part 1 of x]. #science #psychology pic.twitter.com/ZuubQI8YIX Permalink 11:41 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Never pathologize (bounded) failure. Pathologize the refusal to try. Permalink 11:11 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This imbecile doesn’t get that in real life one is not paid in frequency but in dollars. Fail frequently, stay convex. Learn to fail. https://twitter.com/michaelskolnik/status/1117788896321048577   Permalink 11:09 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2) Phil the Rat Tetlock @ptetlock would probability spread “criticism” by fortune tellers if he found any. Here is how fake the article is. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116317447307526148   Permalink 9:30 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 1) Academia is suicidal. In order to discredit me “Phil the rat” @Ptetlock (“repeatedly stab a friend in the back Phil tetlock”) spreads a linkbait written by a phantom “mathematician”, which he didn’t read (he didn’t realize there is NO fat tails in the discussion). pic.twitter.com/jLLQi7FkH0 Permalink 9:28 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The point is that people who f***ck with you online don’t dare to do so offline. Permalink 9:22 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Why is it that people are surprised to NOT find an ogre when they run into me offline? pic.twitter.com/9f6uTUXJ0d Permalink 9:15 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Without skin in the game: Smart drug dealers become pharmacopsychiatrists; smart astrologists become economists; smart serial killers write for the Wash Post; smart bullshitters become “experimental” psychologists; and smart bankrobbers become bankers.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:10 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@holland_tom “#Naples is the most mysterious city in Europe, the only city of the ancient world which didn’t perish like Troy, Nineveh or Babylon. It’s the only city in the world which didn’t drown in the huge shipwreck of ancient civilization. Naples is a Pompei which was never buried.” Permalink 7:30 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@JamesMarsh79 This is what @nntaleb has been saying https://twitter.com/humanprogress/status/1117600681219772416   Permalink 6:42 PM – 14 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/5KkDwNJPDS Permalink 8:57 AM – 14 Apr 2019

@nntaleb MATHEMATICAL FINANCE DU JOUR A robust method for tail option pricing. pic.twitter.com/5LqIcg6Lth Permalink 7:58 AM – 14 Apr 2019

@n_santama Last week, we had the great luck of visiting Baalbek/Heliopolis (Greek for “Sun City”), a city inhabited uninterruptedly for 8-9000 years! It is built in the Bekaa valley, between the (still snowy) spectacular Eastern & Western Mountain ranges of Lebanon 1/9… #Baalbek #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/Bm4KiN90M2 Permalink 1:08 PM – 13 Apr 2019

@MccluskyMark Super cool outcome of @nntaleb’s #rwri is the fun connections it’s led to, from complexity scientists like @normonics, rebel authors like @GuruAnaerobic, nocturnal philosophers like @trishankkarthik, market decoders like @mikeharrisNY and global oil magnates like @SeloSlav. pic.twitter.com/Cw8hsfvV9J Permalink 12:37 PM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And in Lucky Luke (a French cartoon), Averell Dalton is the most stupid. pic.twitter.com/zlzFUvpkj8 Permalink 9:19 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@AhsanDeliri I was wondering why @nntaleb is under so much noisy baseless attacks. Then it hit me. He studies the root of all fields in life. Risk under uncertainty. His works touch on medicine, politics, economics, business, health, nutrition, entrepreneurship, information theory. Permalink 8:39 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typo pic.twitter.com/9wv47TkMGS Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb INVERSE QUIZ DU JOUR Is there a mistake of exposition? Or it is my derivation that is wrong. pic.twitter.com/FmoTKLq7NI Permalink 5:21 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntalebbot “In poor countries, officials receive explicit bribes; in D.C. they get the sophisticated, implicit, unspoken promise to work for large corporations” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 12 Apr 2019

@paulportesi Is it just me or is there an inordinate amount of noise directed at @nntaleb. It seems like record levels. Coming from every direction. He must be doing something right and striking a nerve. He’s agitating the enemy. Permalink 4:21 PM – 12 Apr 2019

@inlukka Light green shows the natural boundaries of the union. pic.twitter.com/7Qpk3KwuVE Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@ozmudurvekili dear mr taleb the newly elected secular mayor of izmir wants to establish a mediterranean union pls rt & show support https://twitter.com/izmirbld/status/1115903326636445698   Permalink 11:29 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@ggreenwald The only 2 times I can remember establishment liberals like @HillaryClinton and @SenSchumer uniting with and cheering Trump Admin is when (a) he bombed Syria and (b) they indicted Assange (Schumer also cheered moving embassy to Jerusalem). That says a lot about their values. Permalink 9:25 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The Ancient Egyptians represented females as light skinned, males as dark. Simply, sun exposure. [Met in NY] In 19tn C. Damascus, women were never exposed to the sun, with shielded inner gardens. To “stay white and avoid aging” (“la tdalla bayda w ma tja33éd”) pic.twitter.com/UDrBPgbXr8 Permalink 7:05 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 13) The National IQ/Skills regression. This charlatan, the researcher @GarettJones wants us to believe in *race=intelligence* but is not intelligent enough to hide from us the data points. You can draw a line of any slope into this. (cc:@EconTalker) pic.twitter.com/JuB9pl9wp1 Permalink 7:00 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@Brilliant_Ads True story pic.twitter.com/kkI1V2so4p Permalink 5:57 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@NateAFischer For years I’d seen @PeterRex do things that defied conventional wisdom but produced extraordinary results. In Antifragile @nntaleb helped me understand the rationale behind these actions. https://twitter.com/peterrex/status/1116399308750725121   Permalink 5:52 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 12) My latest details in the busting of “correlation” IQ-something. I noted that when I saw the graphs book by mountebank @CharlesMurray IQ is uninformative under nonlinearity. pic.twitter.com/VbeyCPbyTG Permalink 5:48 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And if you need to refer to race, use the 3 ROBUST geographical designations: Caucasian (i.e. Western Eurasian), Subsaharan, East Asian, (not more than 4). “White” is indicative of purity, not race. Permalink 5:13 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The first time we used “ergodic” in connection with the Precautionary Principle was in an unpublished paper with Aaron Brown in 2013. Before we knew of @ole_b_peters. But we didn’t formulate the math then. Earlier, presented in Fooled by Randomness. cc:@yaneerbaryam @normonics pic.twitter.com/cnBjxX8T04 Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb By “Nordicist” I mean Northern European supremacists. Permalink 4:40 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Don’t use “White Supremacist”. Use Nordicist. Please. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 4:34 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 11) David Becker is the source of the study: quite alarming handwaving with clueless statistics. In later papers they use “proxies” to obtain IQ. The author of the article is @JamesPsychol James Thompson, a nonacademic psychologic with SINISTER obsessions. pic.twitter.com/Nu9w5Kj0Zr Permalink 3:32 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is good news: people learning to take ergodicity into account for dynamics !!! pic.twitter.com/MP5G4138Iv Permalink 3:11 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Re: Roger Scruton. Why I no longer do interviews with UK journalists. Nobody should. https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 6:16 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@Firsou This is the thinnest building in Beirut, Al-Ba3sa aka “The Grudge”. It’s two feet wide at minimum and was built by one brother who wanted to obstruct another’s view of the sea. Is there a place for building out of spite in the eternal way @normonics ? pic.twitter.com/Ltgk5l0K9L Permalink 4:18 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 10) One can raise IQ points by 2 STF just by training, so it can’t be genetic. PS- I’ve been getting 1000s of such messages since I’ve posted the IQ piece by Nordist supremacist trolls. Incidentally, my “co-ethnics” score high on the test. pic.twitter.com/o6VWleKybQ Permalink 12:22 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM One person to a life partner:”I deal w/ mundane matters: where to live, what to eat, where to educate the children, etc. You focus on centrally important ones: geopolitical relations, tensions w/Russia, future of technology…” Let the State do the *important* things… Permalink 11:16 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@ddelruss People need to stop with IQ – NNT has already very publicly shown why it should not be used. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116342266195476481   Permalink 9:17 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 9) I am gently asking @zerohedge to retract that piece. Now. Permalink 7:17 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 6) Fail to get that growth is not driven by AVERAGE but by EXTREMES that depend on variance 7) Even if effect is as claimed, it is drowned into variance to make it usuable as immigration policy. 8) It is IMMORAL to emprison people in fake boxes!!! My PIECE https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 7:15 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2) ALL of these studies fail to account for cultural aspects of testing. 3) Main researcher @GarettJones doesn’t know what NOISE means. 4) Similar previous “research” did same for Irish, Southern Slavs, etc. who have now caught w/rest 5) A few data points can flip IQ/Performance! Permalink 7:12 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb WARNING: 1/n @ZeroHedge published a post on “country IQ” meant to justify that some races are “genetically inferior”, hence bound to remain poor because of genetic defects. 1) The article was written by a charlatan, James Thompson using shoddy statistics (see my Medium piece) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116074860449619968   Permalink 7:08 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@DineshDSouza Think of all the stuff we wouldn’t know without Assange. He was our media when we had no media to speak of. And we still don’t! Give the man a medal @wikileaks Permalink 6:28 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS ——————————————- Scholarships are available for women & Syrian students (& others from similar places) for the 11th program, RWRI-11, June 24-28 in NYC Please mail a (short) CV to the coordinator. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 5:47 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@derek_j_morris Confirmed it myself pic.twitter.com/R5lZKLzzcT Permalink 5:42 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The interesting thing is that it took one single @Wolfram Mathematica command to prove *by theorem* that the 2000K article in @NautilusMag is fraudulent and the author an impostor. One single command. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115684446081040386   Permalink 5:29 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb N7na zghar, w b3yun l a3adé kbar Hinné khashab 7awr, n7na lalkhashab minshar W7yét Zamzam wTiiba w l nabé l mkhtar Ma bnebné l deir illa min 7ajar 3akkar! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116093721597050880   Permalink 4:01 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Today, they made Jullian Assange a martyr. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Study something old but not visibly useful (classics), something modern and useful (accounting, coding), never something new and not visibly useful. Permalink 8:25 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@42cohen @nntaleb Exactly. I’ve repeatedly tutored students who were struggling and, simply by updating their “software” and creating real-world motivation, achieved psychometrically implausible results. Huge variance above 100 IQ renders it useless + dangerous. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PwTMeShlfU”>  pic.twitter.com/PwTMeShlfU Permalink 7:11 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The problem with the IQ-race quacks like @StefanMolyneux is that their talking points are designed to deal w/humanities schoolteachers. So a quack with the intellect of a guacamole dip like Molyneux who can’t tell a correlation from a fountain pen is a spokesman for “science”. pic.twitter.com/ZT5NIzRnkZ Permalink 4:09 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Mediterranean cultures actually have tall shaming. “homo lungus raro sapiens”, “tawil habil”, “Troppo lungo non fu mai buono”, “Uomo lungo, testa corta” etc. See Reich (2018) @Steve_Sailer The closer to old settled societies, the more tall shaming. Reverse in roaming hunters https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1116090455706333184   Permalink 2:40 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The beauty of physics is that it can rigorously predict things nobody has seen before, before the emergence of any empirical evidence. Compare to fraudulent fields like psychology that overfit from naive “empirical evidence” to predict nothing. https://twitter.com/NSF/status/1115964620186030080   Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bil Aramé kif ולי עמ נגאררב נכתב בלחרפ לאראמאי שו ביתלע מננא לשעלאי? Permalink 12:53 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Jarrabét éktob Llébnéné bl 3arabé. Ma 3am tmshé! Bl Latiné a7san bktir. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116061453235228673   Permalink 12:43 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb هاللء ازا كتبنا بلحرف هيدا بيمشي امما ما بيمشي؟ كيف بنكتوب لé؟ ولo/ou? Permalink 12:32 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Finally!!! https://twitter.com/eastmedmonitor/status/1116031424967204865   Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@DrCirillo A little preview of the forthcoming paper on “violence” with @nntaleb. pic.twitter.com/5dGLRHAPiN Permalink 10:41 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Excited to get the book of @NAChristakis as I am trying to go deeper into the notion of fractal (multiscale) localism & see what’s wrong w/my thesis: It isn’t individuals vs societies but fractal gradations, each w/specific dynamics, (contra the selfish gene philosophastering) pic.twitter.com/gbTxHrOKpu Permalink 7:27 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2019 Things to do list! https://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/1115968097121259521   Permalink 6:57 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer https://www.academia.edu/38762815/Medicine_and_Risk_Transfer?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 5:28 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “When you say something you think are just saying something, but you are largely communicating why you had to say it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:50 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@LieraMarco L’asimmetria nel trasferimento di rischi nella medicina. “Mi stai prescrivendo le statine perché mi fa bene o perché vuoi evitare che i miei eredi ti facciano causa?” E altri esempi. Problema molto americano e (ancora) poco italiano. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115282291704594432   Permalink 4:48 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/eD1X3qQMU6 Permalink 4:37 PM – 9 Apr 2019

@normonics Both globalism AND nationalism are monolithic *absorbing* identities, smoothing over and homogenizing where there ought to be rich variety https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 4:12 PM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Dear @NautilusMag you are in severe violation of journalistic ethics (and competence) in the piece “Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math” . You should check with a non-phantom professional before publishing something as elementarily erroneous. pic.twitter.com/oQej2yIG4D Permalink 11:34 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Dear @NautilusMag you are in severe violation of journalistic ethics (and competence) in the piece “Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math” . You should check with a non-phantom professional before publishing something as elementarily erroneous. pic.twitter.com/oQej2yIG4D Permalink 11:34 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@RandPaul A balanced federal budget isn’t a pie-in-the-sky dream or empty rhetoric. Once again, I am introducing a concrete plan that is achievable. Learn more here: https://www.paul.senate.gov/news/dr-rand%C2%A0paul-introduces-%E2%80%98pennies-plan%E2%80%99-balanced-budget   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JiWyxb558b”>  pic.twitter.com/JiWyxb558b Permalink 7:50 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@MilenaRodban My fellow Americans, the tax preparation industry and its powerful lobby are abominations that continue to wield undue influence over our lives. We must unite against it. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/04/congress-is-about-to-ban-the-government-from-offering-free-online-tax-filing/   Permalink 6:59 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@KendraSirak I’m getting excited for our session #AncientDNAinServiceofArchaeology to be held at #SAA2019. Looking forward to seeing many of our colleagues from both archaeology and genetics on Friday (4/12) from 1-5pm in 110 Galisteo (session 253) @JakobSedig pic.twitter.com/vQdbVgTj4U Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@thackerpd Province gave $720K to fired chief medical officer Eilish Cleary https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/eilish-cleary-health-settlement-1.4191543   Radio-Canada took Health Department to court to make severance information public “When fired, Cleary was studying #glyphosate, a controversial herbicide used extensively in New Brunswick” Permalink 6:12 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@Monsantobuster Taleb’s is a peer-reviewed published paper. If it was “wrong”, why didn’t pseudomathematician Clayton (who has NO publications) write to journal? It is shameful that academics spread this smear campaign by Nate Silver ag. Taleb Paper here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf   @nntaleb Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@ektrit I owe it to Taleb @nntaleb to understand that ethno-orthodoxy is basically Single God Paganism, you know, Christ helps only my people, not yours. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1115583251458985984   Permalink 4:57 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Paganism is decentralized theology.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:52 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The asymmetry comes from the fact that someone very very incompetent will be incompetent at everything. Someone competent at something may be domain specific. That raises correlation IQ-performance between .12 and .4 Permalink 6:48 PM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Did you read my paper, Mr Caroll to decide whether he knows anything about it? Permalink 11:23 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Tony, a year later. (Fellow trader Anthony Glickman, aka rabbi Ozer Glickman). “Life is long gamma”, he said. https://twitter.com/markric41763223/status/1115302776307896321   Permalink 10:41 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@spyrosmakrid Nassim’s originality and insights always surprises me even when he makes a simple comment for a medical paper. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115282291704594432   Permalink 10:02 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risks, a comment invited by @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/VJRvfup5aS Permalink 8:56 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Visibly, people are now getting my point. https://twitter.com/crimsonceo/status/1115238408690053122   Permalink 7:22 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Humanities degrees are very valuable (w/o ideological professors), provided it is complemented with real world apprenticeships (accounting, etc.) . It is degrees in psychology and social “science” full of theories that are not just worthless but work in reverse. https://twitter.com/greekhistorypod/status/1114966071746994178   Permalink 5:41 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb IQ not even useful for clinical cases:∃ targeted tsts. A Serbian doctor who works w/dementia/Alzheimer reached out to say my IQ post was circulating in his circles (& psychologists hate it): Doctors use dementia-specific cues; nothing to do with IQ. https://twitter.com/KourdaN/status/1115209819449974784   Permalink 4:13 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb More general case, the proportion pic.twitter.com/K1rT6KBmpy Permalink 4:08 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The point of adding dead people to your sample is to show the effect of the asymmetry: 1) it you hit someone on the head w/a hammer, he will be bad at everything (hence correlation), 2) there is no reverse equivalent. So IQ effects come from borderline clinical people. GAbish? Permalink 3:04 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@MacDBollinger Mr Taleb @nntaleb I must recommend you and your followers to watch Youtubechannel Swedish Investors excellent graphic summary of your books. Fantastik work! @InvestorSwedish https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEesADB0Jk0&list=PLI84Sf0aDgaw-Wy93jPAw4gcNxzNwpP9s&index=3   Permalink 2:31 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cleaned up on the plane home between twitter arguments. pic.twitter.com/ROQpNofqyU Permalink 4:30 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Some analytics on the ride home from #LibertyCon19: IQ #RacePeddlersIgnorantofProbabilitySuchAsTheQuackPeterson don’t get the effect of the equivalent of adding dead people to your sample. pic.twitter.com/vWIq5rCPQn Permalink 3:38 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ If you include 20% dead people in IQ tests, what will the minimum correlation IQ/performance be if the rest is random? #nonlinearity Permalink 12:45 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Delta’s olive oil is olive oil. Air France’s is 65% seed oil. When you hire “managers” w/o the filtering of SITG, they cut corners (Boeing, Air France, paper quality for publishers) and save pennies. But the manager improved “profitability”. Like short tail options for a tick. pic.twitter.com/zPtnR1gSJD Permalink 12:25 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 2/2 This passage, from Taleb’s The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tales especially comes to mind. I think 10 years ago I would have read and just moved on, now I’m finally starting to better understand the way of thinking this passage describes pic.twitter.com/BMI1N3ROmG Permalink 8:56 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 1/2. I’m rereading When Genius Failed – probably for the 30th time – because I like to understand decision making under stress. As I read it this time I have a better understanding of how much I’ve learned from @nntaleb in the last decade pic.twitter.com/uAsNhRpxt3 Permalink 8:54 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is exactly what I presented at #LibertyCon19: Liberty applies to all scales. No entity (s.a. what this idiot is advocating) should ever impose a national identity on your group, regardless of whether you’re wrong abt your own history (& we’re not). https://twitter.com/7ossain1/status/1114814847672377351   Permalink 7:57 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Indeed modernity is stripping some people of their dignity. https://twitter.com/pravind_paul/status/1114771835508277250   Permalink 12:37 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Indeed, Steve Stuart-Williams is a charlatan. He knows it because he keeps posting unrigorous cherrypicked IQ propaganda. These techniques are NOT predictive. pic.twitter.com/7j70nPUiOQ Permalink 3:39 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@NachoOliveras Indeed. The presenter mentioned round-up (gliphosate) and GMOs as an example of anti-science scaremongers in his punchline. Just remember @nntaleb heuristic for any shill conflating the two on a public platform, works as magic! https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1114170782979174401?s=19   Permalink 1:24 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@vacimovic Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb & Branko Milanovic @BrankoMilan – lecture and conversation in Belgrade. #LibertyCon19 pic.twitter.com/CmHUR0KbAe Permalink 12:24 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@pietercleppe .@nntaleb at #LibertyCon19 Belgrade: In its well-known cartoon, The @NewYorker conflates economists and bureaucrats with real experts, pilots, who have “skin in the game” pic.twitter.com/dMAbl23rWK Permalink 8:26 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@d_pavlovic Belgrade: @nntaleb and @BrankoMilan discuss risk, skin in the game, and income inequality. pic.twitter.com/cBhQlfI04q Permalink 8:24 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb My cousin @GeorgeJNasr started a #Flaneuring hashtag. It should have strict rules: NOTHING TOURISTIC. A flaneur is the reverse tourist. See touristification in #Antifragile. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114298575394103296   Permalink 6:29 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Debating @BrankoMilan in about 1 ½ hours https://twitter.com/petitemilica/status/1113809022447247360   Permalink 5:36 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Tail Option Pricing Under Fat Tails — A deceivingly simple but yuuuuugely robust model. Where we show that the methods used to claim that “tail options are expensive” are highly unrigorous. pic.twitter.com/QMn3qdc7Tv Permalink 5:33 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Exactly. I have been debating Branko who holds DIAMETRICALLY opposed opinions because he is a scholar. Probability is technical and Silver is not a scholar. One does not debate BS vendors. Permalink 5:21 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Belgrade is full of charm & a great flaneuring city. Perfect size (`1m), some parts are renovated, others look like they have been forgotten by history, which makes them mysterious, real, and at times, gripping. Food is ⅓ Ottoman, People look 3/8 Ottoman Marvelous pic.twitter.com/xzI3BXVpSx Permalink 3:47 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Thread by Dhruv who is the other researcher who got the same result I did. Unlike Bullshit Nate, he doesn’t have 3 mil twitter followers. Jut ~ 50. His paper is on the thread. He is more polite than me with Bullshit Nate, but same result. @EconTalker https://twitter.com/DhruvMadeka/status/1114252281636098049   Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb @BrankoMilan’s school windows have mesh and lattices. Permalink 2:53 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Branko’s elementary school in the background. I observed that it looked like a jail. He wasn’t thrilled with my comment. pic.twitter.com/CYxRgWUWo5 Permalink 10:33 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb ما جادلت عالمًا إلا غلبته, وما جادلت جاهلًا إلا غلبني Permalink 8:19 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@lkcashin Watching Bayer stock tumble is a thing of beauty. Monsanto is a cancer upon the earth. Biodiversity suffers in every region Monsanto stretches its dirty tentacles and GMF’s are an environmental time-bomb in the making. @nntaleb #fuckmonsanto #goorganic #Cancer #gm Permalink 7:50 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bullshit Nate, you can fool your audience, not professionals. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@spyrosmakrid The M4-Competition using 100,000 series, comparing 61 F/cing methods was followed by the M4 F/cing Conference in NYC where its findings were presented Now a special issue of IJF with 33 papers on all aspects of M4 from top academics and practitioners from big tech firms @fotpetr pic.twitter.com/QcihLtbaq3 Permalink 6:36 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb J2b haplogroup epicenter is Serbia. pic.twitter.com/BeADCT4mN2 Permalink 6:34 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb How Silver thinks he can bullshit us. pic.twitter.com/DJcAj9vKRL Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Ase, I have attended 4 RWRI and discovered that most of the people that go understand AF “up to a point”… And get lost in theory. Practical AF needs to be a topic… obviously associated with complexity and risk. other topics: AI, entrepreneurship; localism, etc. Permalink 5:35 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Bureaucracy is a construction designed to maximize the distance between a decision-maker and the risks of the decision.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Mandelbrot #fractals #chaos pic.twitter.com/nSLnoWesJn Permalink 11:03 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 3 The “law of large numbers” almost never works for socioeconomic variables. See Chapters 6-8. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 8:58 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@GMWatch New Brunswick’s chief medical officer was working on a study on #glyphosate when she was suddenly put on leave and then fired. Dr. Cleary had already said that she and her staff concurred with the IARC finding that glyphosate was a probable carcinogen https://www.gmwatch.org/en/news/archive/2015/16587-dr-eilish-cleary-is-fired-while-studying-glyphosate   https://twitter.com/GMWatch/status/1113691587232579586   Permalink 7:46 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Adriatic squid ink (risotto) pic.twitter.com/ynX3ltI0Lp Permalink 6:37 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb My lectshur will be on localism and convexity. My debate with Branko is on ergodic vs static equality. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 3:35 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb In Belgrade for flaneuring with my former ex-Ottoman (& ex-Byzantine) compatriots @BrankoMilan and @PredragBrajovic, and to debate Branko at #LibertyCon19 Permalink 3:31 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@NeilNRockville I just got through that section of Antifragile, and it blew my mind that he predicted it so closely, then I looked back at it in retrospect and it was clear why it was so predictable… Permalink 5:45 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM: Why tribal links are important for survival & fail w/abstract universalism: you’d rather love your child w/intensity 1 & save her from drowning > love 1000 strangers each w/intensity .001 ALL Nonlinearities lead to convex effects #antifragility https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 4:58 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 2 Semitic & Indo European languages appear to BOTH emerge from the same area in the Caucasus-Zagros-Anatolia, owing to proximity of agricultural vocabulary & similar original pop. genetics. Current linguistic categories are unrigorous. @Safaitic Permalink 3:21 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 1 That correlation is a measure of relationship betw 2 variables. It is very rarely so. Few understand how correlation requires 1) no subsampling, 2) strict linearity… and its interpretation is nonlinear: 90% correlation >>> 80%. pic.twitter.com/9fCv0f6YXJ Permalink 3:17 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@kiwiandroiddev This article calls to mind @nntaleb’s Antifragile: “Redundancy is ambiguous because it seems like a waste if nothing unusual happens. Except that something unusual happens – usually.” https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/a-lack-of-redundancies-on-737-max-system-has-baffled-even-those-who-worked-on-the-jet/   Permalink 12:44 AM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Damn good. pic.twitter.com/QD0rF32l7z Permalink 11:03 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@holland_tom Huge thanks to @nntaleb for his kind words… #Dominion https://twitter.com/LaraHeimert/status/1113104190014984194   Permalink 9:11 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And, BTW, the only enterprise that did fail more than “secular Arabism ” under a centralized state over the past century is perhaps the attempt to make a collection of pigs sing the Latin version of Te Deum in a syncronized way in a Gothic Cathedral. But not sure. Permalink 4:19 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb OVERT CLUELESSNESS These croissants are bought for ~$.40 to $.80. The markup comes from the monopoly given to the concession. @AOC is the logical empiricist’s nightmare. https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1112739837822582784   Permalink 3:27 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb High time to make my decision public. https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1112715864850128898   Permalink 8:43 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb There is no depth in Peterson. A modicum of insight wrapped in marketing BS, unrigorous psycholophastering (IQ, Big 5, 5 humors) masquerading as scholarship. In short, a quack. https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1112741408979353601   Permalink 8:42 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Booked a table! https://twitter.com/Toni_Bader93/status/1109188645955792897   Permalink 8:01 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb These dumb fucks at @metmuseum were trying to illustrate their theories of “Middle East identity” showing a Hellenistic sarcophagus from Sidon with… Greek inscriptions on it. Permalink 5:42 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2/ Since ~1100 BC Phoenicians (then “Lebanese”) have been the MOST MEDITERRANEAN of pples: look at food/behavior/looks. But since 1860 some low-Intellect Westerners (Arabists & founders of AUB, etc.) have decided de-Mediterraneanize (initially de-Ottomanize) to satisfy “identity” Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@trishankkarthik Everyone should drop what they’re doing, and read this paper right now Sometimes doctors have independently discovered special applications of this idea (e.g., ventilation machine), but it surprises me that they haven’t tried applying the same idea more generally (e.g., cancer) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1112694075084472320   Permalink 5:36 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/tQimRV7n5M Permalink 5:32 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 1 /2 That is the idea of statistical distribution of harm #Antifragility /second order effects in Medicine. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1112528982807904256   Permalink 5:31 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb IDENTITY MONGERS “Art and Identity in the Ancient Middle East” at @metmuseum: Edward Said-style identity mongers proceed to destroy the notion of cosmopolitan localism/Mediterraneanism of the Phoenicians. It shows the horrors of non-localist Nationalism. 1/n pic.twitter.com/AT4U1TW0zK Permalink 5:15 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@VergilDen On this April 1st morning I’m reminded of that time years ago when @nntaleb & I were in Italy and we deadlifted, rented a Black Swan Lambo & tore up Rome. Then we drove up the coast to meet Umberto Eco at his Villa. We perused his antilibrary & ate squid ink pasta. Good times. pic.twitter.com/SRwykqA3Fb Permalink 2:06 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@Gore_Burnelli One of the habits I’ve acquired from reading @nntaleb’s books is to always be skeptical whenever an academic declares a working system to be “backwards”, “medieval”. See for example Robert Sapolsky’s take on the American criminal justice system @ 23:18 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61tChpN3lhY#t=23m18   Permalink 5:07 AM – 31 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “The virtuous worry about their integrity, lesser humans (say, academics) about their reputation.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:23 AM – 31 Mar 2019

@nntaleb To become a philosopher king, start with being a king, not being a philosopher. Permalink 12:39 PM – 30 Mar 2019

IQ, Pinker, Jordan Peterson, Statistics, FRACTAL LOCALISM, Psychology, Tetlock, Caplan, Edward Said, Peter Francopan, Julia Galef, Tulsi Gabbard | Twitter

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Favorite Literature Books

@nntaleb N7na ldiaspora min faddél latiné. Bass l3alam juwwa bigakkro gheir shi la2annon t3awwado. Wkamén l Yiddish huwwé Ilmané maktub bil 7arf l 3brané nafsl abjadiyyé. Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@Extrachelle pic.twitter.com/gRJ8QYIrxP Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 3am fakkér ista3mél l7arf l3arabé lal né0-kn3ané. Lésh? La2anno fina shwayy shwayy nbay3éd 3annon, mush fard ddarbé –ma3 inno l7arf l latiné a2rab 3a 7akiyna. Wma ninsa 2nno l7arf l3arabé asslo fini2é kamen! Shu ra2ykon? Permalink 2:24 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2) Orthodoxy reposes on the notion that a) G-d had to become man to suffer and have skin in the game and, more centrally for Orthodoxy, b) Man can become G-d via a merger called theosis BECAUSE G-d had skin in the game: Αὐτὸς γὰρ ἐνηνθρώπησεν, ἵνα ἡμεῖς θεοποιηθῶμεν Permalink 2:52 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@ektrit In Orthodox Theology, humans are higher than angels and higher than all other creatures of God, precisely because God had “skin in the game” by having One Person of the Holy Trinity, Christ, assuming a PERFECT human body. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1104141492627611655   Permalink 2:14 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Different mafia: without a sense of loyalty, honor and the ironclad committment to deliver on their promises. https://twitter.com/johnnysportcoat/status/1104140929978589189?s=21   Permalink 2:13 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Finally, someone who (along with @DrMichaelBonner ) understood Skin in the Game. It makes humans superior to gods. https://twitter.com/giles_fraser/status/1104005211155283968   Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The Cosa Nostra American branch, that is. Permalink 11:21 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The mafia has effectively ended. https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-metro-mob-boss-carmine-persico-dies-in-prison-20190307-story.html   Permalink 11:04 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@giles_fraser No one should be too big to fail. Not even God. ⁦@nntaleb⁩ Why God needs skin in the game – UnHerd https://unherd.com/2019/03/why-god-needs-skin-in-the-game/   Permalink 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb …and I regretted it. It wasn’t paella at all, squid ink was dry… Permalink 3:53 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/2DnjVO5ITq Permalink 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/2DnjVO5ITq Permalink 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink paella in, of all places, Ralleigh-Durham. pic.twitter.com/DQK1DcwZeB Permalink 4:55 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb And it has nothing to do with the video. Permalink 2:52 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@RustedOak Every Thursday, @senatorbraun presides over the Senate for 3 hours. Today he explicitly requested his copy of #SkinInTheGame (by @nntaleb) to read while in the big chair. pic.twitter.com/xKctNRqLyh Permalink 1:01 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Put me on the record: Jordan Peterson @jordanbpeterson is a charlatan. https://twitter.com/nufflez/status/1103735657271345158   Permalink 12:33 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Friends In my book on Politics, Localism I answer questions. Anything to suggest here? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/j0v3RM5GjZ”>  pic.twitter.com/j0v3RM5GjZ Permalink 12:18 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I never never never use TED-style words such as “enrich lives”. Never. Fake quote https://twitter.com/gbutrous/status/1103582034654625793   Permalink 9:39 AM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb “The only time he forgot about his short height was when he asked his accountant to read out his bank statement, something which he did multiple times a day.” (on Ehud Laniado who just passed during vanity surgery) Permalink 2:48 PM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FRACTAL LOCALISM Defining complexity and selforganization before explaining socioeconomic LOCALISM pic.twitter.com/ogO0MC4Nmi Permalink 1:19 PM – 6 Mar 2019

@VaniPalomo Skin in the game (?) @nntaleb https://twitter.com/jfcarpio/status/1103142481665892352   Permalink 9:53 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2) Ended up publishing with an internet startup [2000 bubble!] that gave me ½ the royalties to accept my intransigence. Bookstores hardly carried their books. Without @Amazon you would have never heard of me. The internet startup went predictably bust. Got the rights back. Permalink 8:46 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Dear unpublished author: Took me 3 years to publish the book. Editors wanted to “improve” the style, remove parables/fictional char, add charts to make it “more professional”. ~99% of publishers said ~”this book will flop”…& gave reasons. I was stubborn and uncompromising. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1103044166169300994   Permalink 5:12 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Intergenerational risk management https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1103073842984034304   Permalink 3:30 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@LPNational Libertarians don’t pander, we support all freedoms, all of the time. pic.twitter.com/GR9IU4HPrZ Permalink 2:20 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness is apparently a bit Lindy. The book is 18 years old cc:@paulskalas http://disq.us/t/3c9yif9   Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/RSMXMuiPf5 Permalink 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Region Plot to see where lhs-rhs is negative (next) pic.twitter.com/9BjW4uSRwn Permalink 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Every single fact in the NYT is true. Every bit of news is flase. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1099232862090465281   Permalink 10:33 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@LIHF_Living All the reasons why you should never take #statins, summed up neatly in one paragraph. From AF by @nntaleb .. pic.twitter.com/sm5m4h8KED Permalink 9:32 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Small workout du jour Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine pic.twitter.com/5FIq6HiMku Permalink 8:54 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists playing with regression… https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1102973930191679500   Permalink 8:49 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Statistics is hard. Very hard. https://twitter.com/KetoAurelius/status/1101848406803312640   Permalink 6:48 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Bien sur http://disq.us/t/3c9yif9   Permalink 5:38 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@DellAnnaLuca The fact that (almost) all degrees have the same duration regardless of the complexity of the underlying field is the best evidence that education has been built around the universities’ needs, not the students’. Permalink 12:53 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@AndrewNoymer Born #OTD, 5 March 1938. David A. Freedman (d. 2008). A major figure in statistical science from the 1960s to the first decade of this century. And a wonderful PhD mentor to me. A major inspiration in my professional life. @philipbstark @nntaleb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_A._Freedman   Permalink 12:22 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Businessman: “Almost half my income comes from one client. I need to markedly increase my business”. Answer: “If you markedly increase your business, you will do well, but half your income will still come from one client. Another client”. #SelfSimilarity #PowerLaws Permalink 10:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@Jon__air They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns). – Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 7:43 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Two solutions so far, the second is more elegant. pic.twitter.com/KGL4vVyMre Permalink 7:42 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/zy2TsepKCP Permalink 7:00 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mathematical pushups dujour (Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine) pic.twitter.com/90eOU5LQzU Permalink 6:33 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychology has cranks propagandists like @SteveStuWill who: + Keep posting seemingly junk statistics that fail under scrutiny (e.g. IQ doesn’t correlate to income >40K- even at low IQ!) + Keep posing as arbiters of “pseudoscience — while psychology is largely pseudoscience. https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1102432917714685952   Permalink 3:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:36 PM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Greeeeat news from Lebanon: these 5 women are the pilots for the Lebanese airline. (Though it is misnamed M-E Airlines rather than what it should be, East-Mediterranean Airlines or, best, “Med Air”). pic.twitter.com/2ju0rsUDeG Permalink 1:01 PM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Friends, how about this probability-driven definition of complex systems before delving into FRACTAL LOCALISM? @yaneerbaryam @normonics pic.twitter.com/X5qyOHop70 Permalink 11:59 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nickgillespie Yes! @RandPaul is voting against Trump’s emergency declaration. What about @SenMikeLee? @tedcruz? @marcorubio? @CoryGardner? @BenSasse? @PatToomey? This is YOUR moment to stand up for constitutional government. Principle over party! http://reason.com/blog/2019/03/03/rand-paul-will-vote-against-trump-emerge   @EricBoehm87 @reason Permalink 11:45 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The only way you can “convince” rentseekers [bankers/academicobureaucrats] is showing them that it is in their own INTERESTS to change their mind. When against their interests, make it painful for them by 1) convincing OTHERS, 2) continuously exposing, 3) humiliating them Permalink 7:23 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@SimonDeDeo There is no such thing as a un-biased test for pattern recognition ability. (Literally, and for the same reason that Komolgorov complexity is uncomputable.) IQ tests the ability to know what the academic bureaucrat test thinks a pattern is. https://twitter.com/RustedOak/status/1102220743671271427   Permalink 7:14 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am very dumb without #SkinintheGame Some people have an energy filter. pic.twitter.com/IqY74S9nvh Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A- As I keep saying there is too high variance in IQ tests FOR THE SAME person. To include it statistically it propagates the noise in other links IQ-real worls (already too noisy). B- @SimonDeDeo also finds elsewhere that you can RAISE non-nerdish people’s IQ by offering them $. https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1101889756139540481   Permalink 4:08 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@amconmag Saudi and Emirati lobbyists really don’t want the war in Yemen to end: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/can-these-senators-prevail-over-uae-saudi-lobby-for-war/   Permalink 4:00 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Any bio of Seneca will be written by a library rat who writes biographies hence can’t get people of action. Just read Seneca. https://twitter.com/ckard001/status/1101940887893016576   Permalink 2:41 PM – 2 Mar 2019

@nntaleb We did not break the mafia by being “kind” and convincing. In the presence of rent seeking, you break by breaking. https://twitter.com/brainpicker/status/1101905770466234368   Permalink 10:22 AM – 2 Mar 2019

@TulsiGabbard Tulsi talks truth on wars #TULSI2020 pic.twitter.com/3ad7VJySZb Permalink 1:27 PM – 1 Mar 2019

@BarbarianCap surprised no one has cc:ed @nntaleb on this comment from a Med Turk finding out he is 80% Greek DNA https://twitter.com/CursedBalkanYT/status/1100117821420437504   Permalink 9:11 PM – 28 Feb 2019

@threadreaderapp Hello, the unroll you asked for: Thread by @BenjaminGJW: “THREAD: Understanding Fractal Localism. Coined by @nntaleb, Fractal Localism is a solution Taleb gives to rising complex []” https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1101173932919525382.html   Have a good day. Permalink 10:49 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@BenjaminGJW @nntaleb also asks questions more thoroughly in the article this thread is based on. If you’ve made it thus far, I recommend you read it, as it futher expands on this summary I have done. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 9:54 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@ggreenwald Does US media generally now acknowledge: * Michael Cohen was never in Prague; * Trump never directly told Cohen to lie to Congress; * Cohen has no knowledge of any blackmail material Kremlin has over Trump * Cohen knows of no collusion evidence Can we now agree on these facts? Permalink 4:18 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Mr Pinker, @sapinker, does revealing satires about my work except you from answering @DrCirillo and I on the technical flaws in your book & how you manage to misrepresent Richardson’s research? It is NOT going to go away. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1100775802952708097   Permalink 10:28 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@Marcellenassif Studying the conjugation of verb to Write (ktb) in Phoenician. Fascinating pic.twitter.com/Ix3iPhscOr Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@nntaleb “Imperceptibly, time introduces and establishes abuses in the best institutions.” Necker. Which justifies an expiration time for institutions. pic.twitter.com/eLNPaBGMsu Permalink 1:23 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Logically, since India has ~10 times the GDP of Pakistan, not counting the latter’s yuuuge financial difficulties, and, in the presence of nuclear capabilities, there should be no war. However… https://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/1100658657765683200   Permalink 12:56 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:47 PM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb So I run away from CNN and their lunatic conspiracies and I am now having drinks with friends in Moscow… what! CNN! No place to hide. pic.twitter.com/ukylOCImcz Permalink 11:34 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@salilstatistics Taleb: “..pple like @SteveStuWill try to hoodwink you w ‘evidence’ ‘statistics’ & ‘genetics'” And he poorly use Pearson’s correlation (Table 1), even as he confesses normality is violated: “3.4.. statistic is overly sensitive when observed variables are non-normally distributed” Permalink 6:05 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb And this shows why you can no longer say “correlation” as it has NO meaning under nonlinearities. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090626453018955776   Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb This thread explains HOW pple like Steve Stewart-Williams try to hoodwink you with “evidence”, “statistics”, and “genetics”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1100149502500061185   Permalink 5:48 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, it doesn’t. https://twitter.com/stevestuwill/status/1099798312469684224   Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, it doesn’t. https://twitter.com/stevestuwill/status/1099798312469684224   Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb East Med/Anatolia/Zagros/Georgia: those who eat the same share the same genes, even when languages differ. Istanbul airport pic.twitter.com/FpbKMgWPhu Permalink 2:33 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- For wages, IQ is often an entry hurdle (via proxies) and needs to be cleaned up for circularity. Yet…. above 60K there is NO correlation between wages and IQ! pic.twitter.com/kDqgtBySVe Permalink 1:44 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Zagorski 2007, she is citing. And that’s what it shows. “If you are not a total idiot, IQ does not correlate to how rich you will get” is a more appropriate title. Psychologists are both ignorants and frauds, not a good combination. pic.twitter.com/WNROEKbU4s Permalink 1:32 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No. This is IGNORANT. She is not citing the study but indirectly Zagorski 2017 “Do you have to be smart to be rich?” 1- It ignores noise (yuuuge here). For any practical purposes it is random. Next graph https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1099914389312794625   Permalink 1:30 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@Decafquest O the http://academia.edu   spams. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/aBU1NhhwzK”>  pic.twitter.com/aBU1NhhwzK Permalink 11:34 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@hugowiz “In short, every organization wants a certain number of people associated with it to be deprived of a certain share of their freedom.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #quote #freedom #employees pic.twitter.com/xaggbhP14e Permalink 8:15 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb A summary of the total result: How counterintuitively with p>½ one is off the hook. Note the distribution takes only even values for odd steps and vice versa. @bilayerguy pic.twitter.com/rq8RIamQ4Z Permalink 5:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists have no idea what they are talking about when they discuss “time preferences”. Their “biases” come from not getting the math. Psych = BS. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/w3N4TC3eWn Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@JoshHochschild Anyone interested in: Subsidiarity Distributism Devolution Federalism Needs to read @nntaleb on “fractal localism”: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1099952453011816450   Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Snow in Northern Phoenicia this morning. pic.twitter.com/nsFArLZw55 Permalink 4:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Pamphlet on Fractal Localism is developing online…. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 12:41 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Journalists like Nir Rosen should not be dictating norms to Syrians–they can’t get complexity, localism, interractions and drown in big words such as “inclusive”, “assimilation”,”racism”, etc. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1071383862134095874   Permalink 12:11 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb MONTE CARLO verification. It works! Survival probability is indeed binary: Lindy above >½. pic.twitter.com/PftGdSEPsn Permalink 3:11 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 2:53 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is turning out that psychology is indeed the mother of all pseudosciences. https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1099791858572713984   Permalink 2:12 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@cRRonycler For the nitpickers, mentally substitute ‘education’ with ‘education industry’, which is what Taleb means. Permalink 1:42 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Full of nonense: Nir Rosen recites BS by @josephinequinn abt “Phoenician Identity”, plots a racist Syrian identity vs the “inclusive” Arab identity from AUB 1860 historical fraud. Why isn’t a Mediterranean identity (for Syria-Turkey-Caucasus-Zagros) inclusive? He needs training. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1098222665272360960   Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb She does not get it. Education is NOT about learning math. Education is about employing tenured professors, administrators, fund raisers, and, most of all, enriching contractors. https://twitter.com/PardesSeleh/status/1098682386802532352   Permalink 7:11 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb That some detenured (or so) academic became a truck driver may indicate some political prejudice; but it certainly proves that some increasingly larger sections of academia are just unskilled labor. It also proves that BS vending cannot be easily done in the private sector. Permalink 3:30 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reverse. All real life risk takers worry about tails/ergodicity. Unlike academixs. #skininthegame https://twitter.com/davopp/status/1099621494299258880   Permalink 3:12 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The problem with fortune-cookie-brained @Ptetlock is insisting on spreading the wrong notion of #SKininthegame to fit his schtick: it is not about incentives. To repeat: it is a selection mechanism, filtering, something called Darwinian. @bryan_caplan https://twitter.com/bryan_caplan/status/1098604763707572225   Permalink 1:28 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Voila pic.twitter.com/qMbEr7cmX2 Permalink 4:24 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Quick answer using the Normal Approximation which effectively captures long term behavior & limits: simply (unless I made an error somewhere), with a probability of success >½, you can move away from the barrier and never hit (Lindy). pic.twitter.com/cwexzi5Dge Permalink 4:14 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the game is, simply, filtering. https://twitter.com/sebpeekster/status/1099429467787808769   Permalink 2:36 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reason this problem is beautiful because, while the answer can be instant (via handwaving), time to ruin is exactly the Lindy problem. Will post a Lindy solution. For the moment, look up the reflection principle (see Dynamic Heding) or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflection_principle_(Wiener_process)   https://twitter.com/bilayerguy/status/1098926919402311680   Permalink 8:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@ektrit I owe to Taleb’s flaneuring for discovering that practical Orthodoxy had become just pagan style following of rituals. 25 years practising orthodox, trained by Athos monks and US missionaries, I noticed that only 5 years ago when I read Taleb. I was shocked. Permalink 8:18 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@cryptofun69 The Russian roulette and upside vs downside sounds straight from @nntaleb https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1099306171960303617   Permalink 8:00 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR / GEOMETRY You can express ALL nonlinear functions (for machine learning and other applications) using summs of call options, calibrated via the arc tangent of the slope. pic.twitter.com/PIvkyuwi4z Permalink 2:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@PhiloCrocodile Up to the age of 25, you read wholesale & in a mercenary way, to “acquire” a possession, to build a “literary culture”… After 25, you lose your hang-up and start re-reading –and it is precisely what you re-read that reveals your literary soul, what you like. – @nntaleb Permalink 1:58 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb “With novelists, names and dates are wrong, the rest is true. With historians, names and dates are correct, the rest is false.” https://www.nuggetsofthought.com/2018/08/22/taleb-literature-books   Permalink 1:01 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@dwnhogendoorn Remember: academics are trained to not seem stupid. Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Feb 2019

@ArgaizR Just like IQ. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/mededpgh/status/1098964433882284032   Permalink 9:44 AM – 22 Feb 2019

@nntaleb I despise Edward Said Permalink 1:34 AM – 22 Feb 2019

@oldlevantine Sounds like those who say “never mind that #EdwardSaid was a malignant charlatan,” that “his #Orientalism was a sordid work of fakeries, distortions, omissions and fabrications.. What matters is that he instigated a debate on the West’s pernicious renderings of the East.” Really? https://twitter.com/Jeff_Jacoby/status/1098763817776021506   Permalink 6:12 PM – 21 Feb 2019

@mikeandallie retweeting this so that I can come back to what I’m guessing will be a really interesting thread, and also because studying higher dimensional cubes is actually a really fun project for kids! https://twitter.com/johncarlosbaez/status/1098663374412427264   Permalink 11:20 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Peter Francopan ⁦@peterfrankopan⁩ in the British Museum with his son. Peter can smell the silk roads across history. pic.twitter.com/qDIe5WoRfU Permalink 9:07 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb You can change the mind of someone who says “no”; never the minds of those who say nothing. Permalink 4:44 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@sergisoliva «Si el mundo se quedara sin fontaneros, los echaríamos de menos de inmediato. Pero si los presuntos expertos [burócratas, politólogos, etc.] desaparecieran, nadie les echaría de menos… salvo sus madres.» @nntaleb en @Papel_EM https://www.elmundo.es/papel/lideres/2019/02/21/5c6af6f721efa0fb378b46ea.html   @EdicionesPaidos Permalink 1:25 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@estimadapaloma «Si desaparecieran los expertos, sólo los echarían de menos sus madres». Nassim Nicholas Taleb [@nntaleb] entrevistado por @gonzalosuarez Vía @Elmundo #JugarselaPiel @EdicionesPaidos http://ow.ly/xv5v30nMqfg   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EE0C5N4ymM”>  pic.twitter.com/EE0C5N4ymM Permalink 1:14 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Illuminated books are #Lindy. The main motivation to write a math book (and start a math publishing house to avoid writing on other people’s terms) is to do illuminated books! pic.twitter.com/AQtsb7xxrp Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@Jaffer22915438 He is telling the truth in this case. Btw, I am not not have been a fan of Putin, but when you here the truth, acknowledge it. https://twitter.com/ml_maria_/status/1098180561275940866   Permalink 3:55 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/3K7q4gOUgz Permalink 3:17 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Being a good “forecaster” is meaningless in getting a good P/L. Where I show that 50 y of “expert calibration” research in psychology (decision th) is BS. Like most psychology (IQ< mental biases, Nudgeboy @Richard_Thaler’s work…) Followup on @juliagalef ‘s poll #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/8taEmcrWxM Permalink 3:12 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Where I learned that you can be interviewed by the New York Times for your obituary. This is thorough fact checking. pic.twitter.com/FBjn0TsXIG Permalink 7:40 AM – 19 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Was it Stefan Molyneux? Did he mention something about IQ? https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1097602461639081986   Permalink 5:52 PM – 18 Feb 2019

@garyruskin With #Monsanto and #Glyphosate on the Run, @AAAS Revokes Award to Scientists Whose Studies Led to Ban on Weedkiller in Sri Lanka and Other Countries. Via @CorpCrimeReport http://bit.ly/2X99r30   “Is corporate corruption eating at the heart of American science?” Permalink 12:20 PM – 18 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Οι ιδέες στο βιβλίο SKIN IN THE GAME εκφράζονται σε blurbs pic.twitter.com/2mtefX4egt Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Darb3shtar είναι ένα προάστιο του Amioun. Τα σταφύλια και το κρασί ανήκουν στο Amioun! Permalink 11:23 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote. https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1097490200043945985   Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote. https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1097490200043945985   Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Hayek #individuality #equality pic.twitter.com/j3YVRDKPMK Permalink 5:39 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@RalphNader See: The Democratic National Committee has voted down a ban on corporate PAC donations https://www.vox.com/2019/2/16/18226344/democratic-national-committee-corporate-pac-donations-tom-perez   via @voxdotcom Permalink 3:42 PM – 17 Feb 2019

@FattestFatTony “It’s much easier to macro BS than it is to micro BS.” -@nntaleb Translation: Ya can’t fool the neighborhood… #localism https://twitter.com/SusanGroff1/status/1097172965962051584   Permalink 8:43 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb @dottorpax gave me the idea that elite French cuisine was a top-down concept for the King, the court and the aristocracy; not so in Italy. https://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/1097162157102452736   Permalink 8:28 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, no, no, no, no !!! Economic decentralization ≠ military decentralization, something the Ottomans (and today’s Chinese) understood very, very well. Aleppo & Homs were 10 times richer (sic) than today (relative to Western Europe) before the Baath centralization policies. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1097126545049686016   Permalink 7:08 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Someone observed about #RWRI that it’s the only lecture she has attended with 3-6 instructors sitting upfront like a governing committee, in continuous disputation. I managed to get my points across by sending Raphael on fake emergencies to get him out of the room. https://twitter.com/financequant/status/1097144536646762496   Permalink 6:57 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The opposite of success isn’t failure; it is name dropping. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The opposite of “b**llshitter” isn’t someone called “truthful” but someone called “arrogant”. Permalink 6:51 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It seems that the sophistication of French cuisine arose from the need to mask the lack of freshness of the ingredients –much as perfume came from the need to compensate for bad hygiene. In contrast, Italian and East Med cuisines make salient the freshness of the ingredients. Permalink 5:03 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@GrayConnolly Tucker Carlson’s piece on America’s “war peddlers” is excellent https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-are-these-professional-war-peddlers-still-around-tucker-carlson-max-boot-bill-kristol/   Permalink 3:13 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb In the Bronx, if a restrnt has an Italian name (like Angelo’s, Carlo’s) odds it is operated by Albanians. Italian restrnts are likely to be called “Jim’s steakhouse”… Restrnts called “Lebanese” are owned by Syrians. Real Lebanese go by “Mediterranean” or “Phoenician” cuisine. Permalink 5:58 PM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Hope this becomes a trend… A change in the narrative as the electorate doesn’t like war. https://twitter.com/da_stockman/status/1096924240215867392   Permalink 4:20 PM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The future #RWRI location; the classroom has a direct view of the famous sidewalk where Paul Castellano was wacked by John Gotti’s operative Sammy The Bull. pic.twitter.com/b7o0ZcW47A Permalink 10:14 AM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb My book puts some rigor behind the horrible @juliagalef flaw in rankings of “experts” based on “calibration” & thinking that one can get expectation error VIA probability error. Aside from the fact that, to add insult to injury, she put me in the sale list as @SamHarrisOrg . pic.twitter.com/0kAbEHd3wT Permalink 7:21 AM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The key is that estimation errors for probabilities are ALWAYS thin- tailed even for Fat-tailed variables. Those for expectation will be fat tailed for fat tailed variables. Which is why @juliagalef rankings of “experts” is an insult to both probability and the real world. Permalink 7:00 PM – 15 Feb 2019

@vtchakarova In life, you’re either the borrower or borrowee; the creditor or creditee; the f*cker or the f*ckee. Make sure that you’re not the f*ckee by being convex & eliminating the risk of ruin. – @nntaleb #RWRI 10, Day 5 Permalink 10:51 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@ashokatluri Finally convinced someone with #SkinInTheGame to buy #Bitcoin…socks. #RWRI 10. pic.twitter.com/MgKUyVXdmN Permalink 9:57 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@101010Lund If you can be squeezed, assume you will be. It’s only a matter of time. #RWRI Permalink 9:24 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@julioccneto “machine learning discovered that you can decompose a payoff with options of different strikes”. Spectacular brainstorming session with @nntaleb at #RWRI 10 Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Lookup the story In Fooled by Randomness about the trader who thinks the market is “more likely to go up”, yet is very heavily short. Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2) Which is the idea of #skininthegame as a filter. The ONLY filter. Verbal predictions do not map to anything real, as they penalize those wrong most of the time in skewed payoffs and favor bureaucrats who optimize in frequency space. Survival=calibration. Permalink 6:00 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb BS vendor is BS vendor whether you agree or not “on this point” https://twitter.com/EmmettBeech/status/1096406989414879232   Permalink 5:56 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Today #RWRI 10, we discuss: How the “calibration” ranking by BS Vendor @juliagalef is not even wrong 1) In real life, you shb be calibrated in payoff space, not in frequency space. Someone right 80% abt Russian Roulette won’t survive, option traders can be right ~1% #ergodicity Permalink 5:55 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Correction: shd be “under absence of correlation” (uncorrelated vs independent) Permalink 5:47 PM – 14 Feb 2019

@ashokatluri You can’t trust regulation as post-retirement bureaucrats get highly paid jobs in the same industry who you helped while in Govt. @nntaleb #RWRI 10 #ImplicitBribe Permalink 1:25 PM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The message is that It is a very very bad idea to be both evil and stupid. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1096093772830658561   Permalink 10:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@RonPaulInstitut Ilhan Omar Smacks Down Elliott Abrams In Front Of Everybody http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/february/14/ilhan-omar-smacks-down-elliott-abrams-in-front-of-everybody/   Permalink 10:03 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@Jaffer22915438 @normonics @nntaleb As I said, she is becoming more interesting and pay attention to who attacks her… https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1096094247336452103   Permalink 9:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@zerohedge Every Queens real estate broker right now pic.twitter.com/FYKZSe5WT2 Permalink 8:52 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb DAY 4 RWRI 10 Andrea Fontanari asking: Where is the tail? #RWRI pic.twitter.com/AJgj0NJ8b1 Permalink 6:28 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb This is EXACTLY why we shd never conflate independence and zero correlation. Permalink 6:22 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@keithbensons Unless you were a sucker, but then recovered from being a sucker(iatrogenics), that’s an even yuuuuger edge. “Not everything that happens happens for a reason, but everything that survives survives for a reason” – @nntaleb Permalink 6:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825241185090428928   Permalink 5:55 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Not being a sucker is also a yuuuuuge edge. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1095830320543420417   Permalink 3:56 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Something I learned this morning: A joint fat-tailed distribution under independence is NOT a product of densities –to preserve ellipticality and “stability” of the Stable Distribution. pic.twitter.com/SBC9rvoFPV Permalink 3:50 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@normonics I never fail to regret spending time and energy engaging the “verbagiastic” (h/t @nntaleb for the term) Permalink 12:53 PM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb RWRI-10: A French mathematician trying to measure the tape using the room. https://twitter.com/philipdevroe/status/1095761032943992832   Permalink 12:15 PM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb A fight erupted at RWRI-10. Raphael Douady measuring in “meters”. “This is America, we don’t use the f*** metric system”. https://twitter.com/philipdevroe/status/1095761032943992832   Permalink 11:08 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@sergesapiens #RWRI #10 with @nntaleb follows a power law: if you assume that the next day can’t get better you’re likely to be surprised! Permalink 10:38 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb RWRI 10 (day 3) Arié Haziza showing how convex costs of catastrophes are: there is a severe nonlinearity as you pay higher and higher prices for materials during reconstruction. Twice the severity => 2.5-4 times the economic costs. pic.twitter.com/xDDiyUl3M0 Permalink 8:42 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer, a comment on a paper by Maestro Spyros Makridakis @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/iaHPNHMri8 Permalink 8:22 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@mhuckabee1 New personal best today: 275 lbs deadlift x 3 reps. I’ll hit 300 soon. @nntaleb you inspired me! Permalink 4:36 PM – 12 Feb 2019

@nntaleb From “Lebanon” to “Phoenicia”… https://twitter.com/ptashny/status/1095401651840667649   Permalink 11:34 AM – 12 Feb 2019

@TheSuperbubble “commerce brings peace” — @nntaleb https://twitter.com/LarsSchall/status/1095292013321351168   Permalink 4:37 AM – 12 Feb 2019

@paulportesi Lindy. Physical books are engrained with the spirit of life when one holds them. Antilibrary too. @nntaleb 92 percent of students prefer print books, new study shows https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/print-textbooks-vs-ebooks_us_56ba4091e4b0b40245c4534e?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004   Permalink 4:38 PM – 11 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #IQ @charlesmurray #hayek pic.twitter.com/vfsFhq0Wxr Permalink 7:37 AM – 11 Feb 2019

@TheCalmPeople Quote of the day “my mood, my sadness my bouts of anxiety, are a second source of intelligence – perhaps even the first source.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb #Stress #ConflictManagement #AngerManagement #StressManagement #Happiness #MentalHealthMatters pic.twitter.com/Wf295oesYC Permalink 12:40 PM – 10 Feb 2019

@LaikiEksixroni1 What about her?!: https://youtu.be/9uj1mD0w7Ww   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Feb 2019

Mesopotamia, Miami, Migrations, Molyneux, PSYCHOLOGY, Monsanto, 2018, Wittgenstein’s Ruler, “IQ”, Pinker, One Tweetstorm, Mongolians, Charles Murray, Isaac Levi,

@spyrosmakrid USA TODAY Article Published Jan 18, 19 “Do you have High Blood Pressure (HBP)? It depends on which doctor you ask” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2019/01/18/high-blood-pressure-guidelines-american-heart-association-college-cardiology/2607407002/   AND which study you use (some saying HBP decreases life expectancy by 5 years others by couple of months) https://openheart.bmj.com/content/1/1/e000048   @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7rMRj5DDVO”>  pic.twitter.com/7rMRj5DDVO Permalink 8:18 AM – 19 Jan 2019

@Lipsie ( message to #Millennials ) Bae (s), “you want to help mankind, start a business” a.k.a stop taking long haul flights to have your photos taken with black kids suburbs of Nairobi. Yeet ? Now bounce xxx c/o @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 2:21 AM – 19 Jan 2019

@nntaleb (And no, I am not setting foot in South Beach. Not even for squid ink.) Permalink 4:02 PM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists, among other very serious defects, cherrypick data. https://twitter.com/jbenton/status/1085960543079419905   Permalink 2:46 PM – 18 Jan 2019

@l0bbelt In true Talebian tradition, I will block you because you are an idiot. Permalink 11:14 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@TimMcCoy5 I follow maths expert Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Here’s why – his on the record predictions in May 2016 pic.twitter.com/RJ0qALhSZ4 Permalink 10:19 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/8usJEXuHge Permalink 9:55 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@NonMeek Here’s the #Offshore IQ -collection in its entirety. I gather intelligence is mostly about not being stupid. This collection will help with that. [inspired by @nntaleb & #IQ-tweetstorm] pic.twitter.com/MuE271iWcv Permalink 7:56 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Miami (downtown): Something refreshing about a town devoid of any pretense of intellectualism. Permalink 7:55 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Basic analytical problems pervade psychology. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1086259582052286465   Permalink 7:24 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Look at things from probability… Remember Cramer & other dist of gaps between primes. pic.twitter.com/IndsleeIp6 Permalink 7:23 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Goes flat, then fools you with a jump. https://twitter.com/fermatslibrary/status/1083722706963582976   Permalink 4:51 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@Firsou The dietary data that they used to constitute the “Mediterranean Diet Pyramid”, that Willett considered “the optimal diet”, was collected in Crete during Lent, when no meat or dairy are consumed until Easter. They are basing their recommendations on pure BS @Mangan150 pic.twitter.com/IyhOPvL55V Permalink 12:24 PM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 That historical accounts of migrations are largely fiction: there have been little movement in S. W. Eurasia [Mediterranean + Anatolia] since the Bronze age. Ancient Greeks weren’t blond “Aryans”; looked like someone in Astoria. https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1085894427263070209   Permalink 6:56 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Precisely why Psychology is nonsense: you call their BS they claim that there is something wrong with you. [ Incidentally there is little new & true psychologists know that was not perfected by 1) thieves, 2) used car salesmen, 3)magicians. ] https://twitter.com/benrobbins/status/1085898485788856326   Permalink 6:05 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb @iosif_lazaridis (Clearly the statement by the quack-quack Molyneux that the population of Mesopotamia was “replaced” by peninsulars & other invaders doesn’t hold.) Permalink 5:26 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The entire problem with closing psychology departments: you need a place to put (talkative) neurotic people. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1085635799209660416   Permalink 5:05 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My genetics (probability) paper. pic.twitter.com/IIte4sC2lK Permalink 4:41 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb μεράκι = soul in the game. Permalink 5:53 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Why statistician are way out of their depth w/BIG DATA: + To a statistician, there are single variables, scalars, vectors, and matrices, separate “tings” in various degrees of complication. + To a probabilist, a scalar is just a low dimensional matrix. All the same “ting”. Permalink 4:32 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Neaaaaaaat https://twitter.com/samuelgwalters/status/1085373506643156992   Permalink 2:51 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Salibi, genetics show, is largely fabrication. #science #rigor https://twitter.com/the_levantist/status/1085623558242426880   Permalink 2:39 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@pennedtweets And if I follow logically, we arrive back at bottom up localism. Beautiful. Though it’s daunting and deliberately demanding, it seems there’s much to nobly devote one’s life to in this space for the foreseeable future. Very exciting. Permalink 12:44 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PSYCHOLOGY has contributed to nothing nonBS in its history (hence “IQ” shtick) -nothing real & unknown to grandmothers. PROBLEM: if we close psych depts in univ., would it be riskier since psychologists can cause WORSE damage in other jobs (drivers, pizza delivery, journalism)? Permalink 12:31 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@ArmandDAngour Whereas COMPERICLITY is having #skininthegame @nntaleb https://twitter.com/haggardhawks/status/1085503179528261633   Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@TheOppoMan @gillette It is immoral to claim virtue in order to make a buck! @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 6:09 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@VasMusca On IQ tests: “Take the sequence {1,2,3,4,x}. Only someone clueless about induction would answer 5 as if it were the only answer. And not only clueless, but obedient enough to want to think in a certain way.” Sad that they’re so used. – via @nntaleb: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:18 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@AutomaticEarth Debt Rattle January 16 2019 | EU approval of Roundup was based on docs straight out of Monsanto propaganda texts. Now Canada sees no risks in Roundup. We seriously risk losing this one. High time for new weapons. @nntaleb https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2019/01/debt-rattle-january-16-2019/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZLzTbKG5CO”>  pic.twitter.com/ZLzTbKG5CO Permalink 3:09 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@paulportesi The problem with modernity-abundance. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/YiddishProverbs/status/1085408117964312581   Permalink 10:23 PM – 15 Jan 2019

@VergilDen Yes – it has arrived. @ErwanLeCorre @MovNat pic.twitter.com/JYUmW2rx05 Permalink 4:08 PM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb As with GMOs & Pinker boy, I do not aim at changing the mind of bigots, IQ pple, psychologists, & pseudostatisticians. All I can do is expose them & change the mind of a certain intelligent audience. And it works. pic.twitter.com/iJcZfiIZ55 Permalink 12:38 PM – 15 Jan 2019

@alexandersquats This is textbook Lindy! https://twitter.com/Arch_Revival_/status/1085153000421756929   Permalink 10:30 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Which shows the circularity of IQ scores. Psychometrics is a scam, which shows in so many respects. pic.twitter.com/mIy3F9iVzf Permalink 10:19 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@FattestFatTony I ain’t “smart” enough to know what intelligence is, but I been around enough suckers to know what it ain’t. #ViaNegativa https://twitter.com/PersuasionRisng/status/1085206671612436480   Permalink 10:07 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Let’s start with an elementary QUIZ that the psychologists (& the mountebanks s.a. @charlesmurray) seem to be implicitly flunking. pic.twitter.com/KzxNoh8FTe Permalink 9:41 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@Gavelascos @nntaleb please tweet something about this pic.twitter.com/Ojorg97g8z Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@PersuasionRisng I’d point out that the top 25% of janitors score higher IQ than the bottom 25% of college professors. Permalink 8:06 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I’ve called people “imbeciles” for vastly more intelligent remarks. Permalink 7:17 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb CIRCULARITY If MDs and academics tend to have a “IQ” slightly informative (higher on a noisy average), it is largely because to get into schools you need to score on a test similar to “IQ”. Probability and statistics confuse the psychologist and other fools. https://twitter.com/jonathanwilson/status/1085190318662725632   Permalink 7:14 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto’s @ericsachsPhD was involved in getting “scientists” to sign studies ghostwritten by Monsanto. Documents show he gave marching orders to discredit our precautionary principle paper. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/Thibault_Lec/status/1085157467393327106   Permalink 5:32 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Sir Michael Atiyyah’s family and the Roman emperor Alexander Severus come from the same village in North Lebanon. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1084053084014370817   Permalink 2:05 PM – 14 Jan 2019

@normonics NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT @nature wtf is this pic.twitter.com/jq5IHukGY2 Permalink 1:35 PM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb You cannot be more stupid than that. Monsanto (via its active shills) managed to make people believe SCIENCE = SCIENTISM Our paper(s) on precaution under dimensionality: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/antonioregalado/status/1084864808963444737   Permalink 12:11 PM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb These are the idiotic analogies to avoid: running speed is unidimensional in a fixed environment, intellect has yuuuuuuuge dimensionality in fast moving complex domains. Stop this race/attributes BS. https://twitter.com/darrenknewell/status/1084739524154912769   Permalink 7:42 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@oldlevantine Can’t wait!! The Thirty-Year Genocide: Turkey’s Destruction of Its Christian Minorities, 1… https://www.amazon.com/dp/067491645X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_lajpCb5ETACRM   via @amazon Permalink 5:37 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@Extrachelle Variant of the #Phoenician alphabet https://twitter.com/josh_lipson/status/1084629270436167680   Permalink 4:39 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb There was NO “substantive” correction to the IQ piece. Not even ONE single valid commentary by psychs. Asking Charles Murray for probabilistic points is no different from asking a Lower East Side astrologist to discuss relativistic quantum mechanics. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 3:30 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A friend, yesterday: ME “Long time. How are you doing?” HIM “Busy period. I have a lot to do. How about you?” ME “I am doing a lot, tons of things, because I have nothing to do.” https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1084592176925982720   Permalink 3:48 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@wtgowers James Watson (as in Crick &) has been stripped of certain honours at a NY lab thx to comments about race and intelligence. If you’re worried that he is simply stating uncomfortable truths, this great blog post should reassure you. https://gcbias.org/2018/03/14/polygenic-scores-and-tea-drinking/   Permalink 3:34 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@statwonk It’d be interesting to see this plotted by distance from where the IQ concept was invented. It’s probably just geographic distance between the test makers and takers. Permalink 3:29 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb C- Selects for obedient idiots who don’t get the problem of induction. (from a discussion with @paulboghossian ) pic.twitter.com/p2nGBhadMD Permalink 3:27 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb B- WHY THE ERROR RATE FOR ONE INDIVIDUAL IS YUUUGE pic.twitter.com/kinX6vxVNW Permalink 3:25 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Added 2 additional arguments in the IQ paper- A- WHY NATIONAL IQ IS A FRAUD https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sVoBz1WYvT”>  pic.twitter.com/sVoBz1WYvT Permalink 3:24 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists hope that I did not look at the literature. This, adjusted for padding, is astrology. pic.twitter.com/MsfLjCD0Qn Permalink 12:45 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb HEURISTIC: In any profession, when someone becomes rich and/or famous and starts socializing or attending organized gatherings w/the rich & famous & members of the IAND*, you can start counting the time until the big blowup. * International Association of Name Droppers Permalink 10:23 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@timjburrows @nntaleb has a lot to say about this. Averages quoted without variance, precision without confidence interval. List goes on. Worse, even if accompanying data were provided, majority of pop would be none the wiser. Permalink 10:11 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Friends, what kind of magazine is Aeon? Thanks. Permalink 8:34 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 (cont, 2 ) Also learned that “PhD” researchers who BS about “IQ” (and RACE) don’t get that if IQ correlates to performance at 50% (the beeeeeesssst of cases), that it can only explain less than 16.7% of said performance. Idiots. Permalink 7:30 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 (cont) Also learned that “PhD” researchers who BS w/buzzwords don’t understand basic inference; the notion of variance. Worse, race idiots think that if a country has “IQ”=82 (assuming “IQ” is real), that ALL will have IQ=82. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082713050837336065   Permalink 7:26 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 Learned that psychologist involved in “IQ” fail to understand very basic notions they are using. Such as correlations. Not talking about higher dimensions “g”, nonlinear correlations, etc. Not talking abt quacks like Molyneux, but academic psychs. pic.twitter.com/aVQoCvh33H Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@Extrachelle They, all, deadlifted too. You can see it in their eyes. pic.twitter.com/YuXTSKK3vO Permalink 5:56 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Voila: a problem with PCAs that psychologists are not getting. Science is hard. #fooledbyrandomness https://twitter.com/Zusehrverkuerzt/status/1084388417474056192   Permalink 3:54 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 2- WHAT I LEARNED IN 2018 Learned from @Mangan150 that seed oil (Not #Lindy) is actually only tested in theory, & maybe be v. inflammatory. (Went nuts yesterday on Air France when I saw the smallprint for the “olive oil/balsamic” small bottle: 38% olive/37% sunflower.) Permalink 1:12 PM – 12 Jan 2019

@ClarkeMicah You don’t *use* the scientific method if you invent ailments and claim diagnoses on the basis of unfalsifiable subjective guesswork. https://twitter.com/nancydoylepsych/status/1084173391811276800   Permalink 11:55 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb What I learned in 2018: Learned from @Safaitic that written language often had nothing to do with spoken languages. The former later makes its way via the minority rule. It is conceivable that Jesus spoke a Galilean dialect not Aramaic, but used Aramaic for harangues. Permalink 7:51 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The “left” is just as owned by weapon makers as the “right”. https://spectator.us/left-tulsi-gabbard/   Permalink 5:20 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb With @EmanuelDerman @jim_gatheral pic.twitter.com/yeLuVbRRij Permalink 3:45 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Sir Michael Atiyyah, British/GrecoPhoenician (Greek-Orthodox from North Lebanon), most decorated mathematician, charming man, RIP. Permalink 3:42 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Friends, I see some IQ “holes” in research. Please help if you are familiar with literature 1) Has anyone measured within individuals IQ test variance (you take the test, get different score) ? 2) Has anyone controlled for Chinese characters reading (as training for IQ tests)? Permalink 2:28 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Molyneux-Quack has same explanation for Mesopotamia that Nazis & Aryan supremacists gave for the decline of Modern Greeks: “They are different people” (illegal immigration +cousin marriages). Until came science; ancient DNA shows it’s just not true. https://twitter.com/mgpolitis/status/1084026383133741056   Permalink 2:13 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The “cousin marriage” (CM) ad hoc to explain the degradation of Mesopotamia is crackpot: – Parsis, the MOST successful community ever (only~50k) encourage CM – Lebanese Greek Orth ban it, not Maronites & no differential in success – Was practice common earlier? (ergodicity) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082621586044264448   Permalink 1:09 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@Mangan150 The fakest of fake news. How anyone believes this is beyond me. Skipping breakfast even once a week might increase risk of type 2 diabetes https://abcn.ws/2AgRhTe   Permalink 7:32 PM – 11 Jan 2019

@EHSANI22 Genghis Khan valued Loyalty so highly that when when followers of his chief rival Jamukha handed him, rather than reward the men he had them all executed in front of the leader they had betrayed. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Jan 2019

@FattestFatTony Looking for enemies is a suckers game but letting them find you is the oldest free marketing known to man… #Lindy Permalink 3:25 PM – 11 Jan 2019

@thackerpd 1/6 Emails shows #Monsanto orchestrated a behind the scenes retraction of Seralini’s paper on #GMOs. David Saltimiras w/ #Monsanto started “the last rites of Seralini” with an email to Sir Colin Berry. @NaomiOreskes @sejorg @TimothyAWise @industrydocs @sfoucart @fastlerner pic.twitter.com/cHnFBz9Jgu Permalink 4:55 AM – 11 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Pasquale, you are a professional probabilist and statistician. You are a scholar. Molyneux is a crank. Please do not engage him. Permalink 2:31 PM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychology. https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1083354728023707648   Permalink 9:30 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@yaneerbaryam How can there be enough skin in the game to stop this? @nntaleb https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/former-ceo-pleads-guilty-to-fentanyl-spray-kickback-scheme/2019/01/09/f25d3cea-1452-11e9-ab79-30cd4f7926f2_story.html   Permalink 7:26 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #daoofcapital #SunTzu #TheArtofWar pic.twitter.com/dY9BogrsWo Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@thackerpd How did #Monsanto try to spin the carcinogenicity of #glyphosate and attack @IARCWHO? Documents show they hired a PR firm to plant op-eds targeting Washington Post & USA Today https://usrtk.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Benbrook-expert-report-November-2018.pdf   @NaomiOreskes @NaomiStarkman @TimothyAWise @industrydocs @sfoucart @fastlerner ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/A573FTfAr1″>  pic.twitter.com/A573FTfAr1 Permalink 4:54 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The “Daf Yomi” or occasional Daf is the best way to learn …Eastern Aramaic. And there is no better way than to listen to a Syrian Rabbi such as rabbi David Mansour. https://twitter.com/JYuter/status/1083327159752671232   Permalink 3:41 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb After 4 days of diluvial rain from angry Zeus, Baal & other gods, stuck at home running Monte Carlo genetics simulations while eating stuffed grape leaves and busting IQ and race idiots on Twitter, finally the storm ended … and a lot of snow covering Mount Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/0vWKtHNBDV Permalink 2:12 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb *Footnote: clearly I don’t insult not ALL psychologists, just those who put people & races in”idiot” IQ boxes or similar things…) Permalink 12:59 PM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists use “IQ” to politely put people & entire races in boxes with the label “idiots”, and stick them there for a lifetime. They ruin people’s careers and potentials. Politely. I call psychologists (& IQ mountebanks) idiots to their face. Not politely. Permalink 5:23 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This Q is the fraudulent type psychologists give you. You NEVER interview someone w/o some background credentials w/far more information than IQ, a measure made by low “I” psychologists. In the REAL WORLD there is something called a CV! https://twitter.com/rammbling/status/1082986472834138112   Permalink 5:13 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NEXT BS PSYCHOLOGY BUSTING project: Count how many of these “biases” are errors or we have the wrong model. E.g. “sunk cost” not an error if you use P/L as info from environment. Heuristic in #SkininTheGame: if not present in Erasmus, it doesn’t exist Remember Psych is BS #Lindy pic.twitter.com/Iv6eRtNLT4 Permalink 3:42 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb They designed my technical book cover How to Design a Great Book Cover by @TuckerMax https://link.medium.com/zhZGp7uSkT   Permalink 3:26 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Typo 16.67% pic.twitter.com/nau8cTHdy0 Permalink 2:39 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Version 2: turns out that the IQ story is vastly worse than I initially thought. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1eIasgDkqs”>  pic.twitter.com/1eIasgDkqs Permalink 12:26 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ FACTS The highest correlation IQ to “performance” (with yuuuge massaging) is .5 [not eliminating the resemblance between said performance and test] The pick up is only 13% Psychologists are kluuuueless about some basics. pic.twitter.com/ZOR9igEEDp Permalink 12:07 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (very very simple) IQ is said to correlate at .5 with performance. You hire an employee with above average IQ. What is the probability of above average performance? What is the probability if there were 0 correlation with performance? Assume Normal distr. Permalink 10:57 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb To understand Wittgenstein’s ruler: Any MEASURE of IQ or intellectual abilities or anything related to intellect that does not give #Molyneux a score in the bottom 8% of the population is patently a wrong measure. pic.twitter.com/gGtokyl2Fu Permalink 4:04 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@TeslaAircraft This is exactly @nntaleb’s dictatorship of the small minority (which I think is great in this case). We only stay at hotels with chargers, but people without EVs don’t care if the hotel has one or not. This phenomenon accelerates adoption. @elonmusk https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   https://twitter.com/thehoff525/status/1082328699737960449   Permalink 2:05 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is actually much worse when you consider that Meds were extensions of Caucasus/Persia/Anatolia; Greeks were much much ethnically closer to Persians, Assyrians & Phoenicians than to “Europeans” as the demarcation is fake. https://twitter.com/GhostVirusX/status/1082756180814979072   Permalink 1:54 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Actually, if one of the variables is fat tailed… Always a problem when pple use mechanistic regressions without knowing probability. Further, THERE IS NO BASIS FOR NATIONAL IQ. Even if there were differences in averages, VARIANCE swamps the local information. Science is hard pic.twitter.com/viK5meA1yf Permalink 12:51 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Clint Eastwood w jeddé Saliba Skandar l mesh3ir by @jadabdala https://link.medium.com/gl2C152PjT   Permalink 12:24 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Which brings us to a statistical Quiz. What is the distribution of the regression slope? @GarettJones I will be nice to you because you deadlift. But you need to understand the ERROR rate of a regression slope. Otherwise, NO regression. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/VKem5V6lWm Permalink 12:13 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb STATISTICAL BUSTING TRAINING 101 How many data points (sampled within the same data) do you need to add to change the slope from positive to negative? @GarettJones, this is no longer called a regression. This is called intellectual fraud. pic.twitter.com/PcjBqRVKKd Permalink 10:58 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Time to make public what we’ve been laughing quietly about. We figured out the salaries of some of the bitter IQ psychologists in this debate (public records from state U). They earn less than NY Uber drivers. https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/1076933024439250945   Permalink 10:52 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntalebbot “The four most influential moderns: Darwin, Marx, Freud, and (the productive) Einstein were scholars but not academics. It has always been hard to do genuine – and no perishable – work within institutions” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Serious question. Have you ever done a regression before? Permalink 10:14 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@The_Cyrenian THIS IS OFFICIALLY MY FAVOURITE TWEET OF ALL TIME. There is nothing more beautiful, nothing more satisfying, than seeing a real intellectual expose the fake-intellectual and closet-racist that is Stefan Molyneux. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082607889309683713   Permalink 10:13 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb COUNTRY IQ This may not give you much information (nonhomogeneous migration patterns) but it certainly tells you that “country IQ” and genetics is a scam. pic.twitter.com/JLqxqWF0Hu Permalink 9:11 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NOW an intelligent question. Cultural changes, mostly accelerated in past 200 y. https://twitter.com/alanizBTC/status/1082630721779523586   Permalink 5:33 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 1) No, it was not Ghengis Khan who sacked Baghdad but his grandson Holagho 2) That they killed all the locals is fiction (from balance X vs Y chr) 3) Only someone like PrimatebrainedMolyneux can believe 1)Asian IQ genetic superiority & 2) degradation in IQ from male replacement Permalink 5:18 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I do not debate charlatans. I EXPOSE them to others. Permalink 4:55 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This inbreading/cousin marriage theory is another crackpot by IQ-genes-race pple who NEED to find genetic (not cultural) degradation. First effect of inbreeding is systematic diseases. & you see MORE among Ashkenazis so stop the IQ link & crank-science. https://twitter.com/Titus_Pullo55/status/1082620263697661952   Permalink 4:54 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Do you fucking think I am stupid enough to not check Babylonian genetics? Permalink 4:37 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame dictates not talking about an idea (such as #SkinintheGame) shallowly, w/o a deep investment, here is my recitation of Hammurabi’s code in ancient Babylonian (Akkadian) w/proper Semitic gutturals. Yes, I know enough Babylonian to argue Molyneux is a fraud in it. pic.twitter.com/CYCHTrhS1p Permalink 4:29 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Mesopotamia Invented Metallurgy, Agriculture, Writing, Sailing, theWheel, Chemisty, Pharma, Astronomy, LAW,(co)algebra, Algor, Calendar, Maps, Metrics… Maintained techno superiority for 4600/5000y of history. So fraudster @stefanmolyneux now arbiter of their inferior “IQ”. pic.twitter.com/uGxSiIlJ0q Permalink 4:00 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychology. https://twitter.com/chsommers/status/1082397016821501953   Permalink 2:03 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The ONLY test of intelligence that counts is to see if the person detects Wittgenstein’s ruler situations: 1) When you use a ruler to measure the table, you are also using the table to measure the ruler. 2) The more unexpected the measurement, the more you apply W’s ruler. Permalink 12:51 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@JoshHochschild Nassim Taleb’s recent attack on psychology and IQ “science” emerged too late for me to work into this essay, but it could be easily incorporated. If his campaign surprised you, politically or intellectually, maybe this will help. https://www.firstthings.com/article/2019/02/taleb-the-philosopher   Permalink 4:29 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 6) But the grand doyen of Statistical BS Busting is the great @spyrosmakrid who started in the 1980s! He is the M in the M-competitions. He was 10y early figuring out the scam w/hypertension treatment. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1081434668476612608   Permalink 3:36 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 5) BS Busting by probability people seems to have become a specialty. We now have an army! https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1082390431344852992   Permalink 3:20 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4) @HarryDCrane is making evidence a better place. LEARN FROM HIM. Remember that there is no scientific “evidence” w/o statistical significance. Meanwhile, I am focusing on the Fat Tails aspect as it mushrooms the problem of naive & pseudo-empiricism. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1082079005505916933   Permalink 2:34 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@Wurux @nntaleb https://twitter.com/UnwobblingPivot/status/1081632438663761920   Permalink 1:28 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb “European” is meaningless a genetic term. Western Eurasia is the correct one. Permalink 1:13 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb First meeting of the localist society for the promotion of the Neo-Canaanite language in a Starbucks near Byblos. Thank you everyone for the spontaneous gathering! pic.twitter.com/HlCrlSfxdi Permalink 8:57 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3) My problem is with charlatans such as @michaelshermer with their promotion of “empirical evidence” in the name of “science” –not aware of spurious correlations, exactly the opposite of statistical inference. They argue from “facts” based on above spuriousness. Permalink 8:42 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @AOC @ronpaul #paygo #paytoday #freelemonade pic.twitter.com/Fa6zGnRphY Permalink 5:33 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Wrong to say 1300 y ago. Lebanon spent 500 y under Ottomans who maintained most aspects of Byzantine Empire. They kept ethnicities separate, under self administration (Millet system), so the Rum Millet (i.e. “Roman”) were same citizenship: Greece, Anatolia, Romania, East Med. Permalink 2:43 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@coryklippsten The last two weeks of his anti-IQ push have been primarily about ending the practice of using the tests for anything OTHER than its original purpose, which was to identify people with low intelligence. The correlation between IQ and success disappears above 100. Permalink 5:36 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@normonics This guy @sapinker did not address the critique of NNT because he probably does not understand it. But it is straightforward statistics: 1) interarrival times are too long to make any strong claims and 2) a stationary distribution with alpha implying NO MEAN best explain the data https://twitter.com/52_insights/status/1081910305477808128   Permalink 4:21 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Here I explain. It’s not that correlation is not causation, but that correlation is not correlation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o   Permalink 4:15 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Let me give the most concentrated lecture about statistics/Data Science. Statistics is about avoiding the mistake below. The rest is (more or less complicated) footnotes. pic.twitter.com/xLYPE6pcAf Permalink 3:57 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In all fairness, she took communion there, which is beyond mere attendance. On paper, the Greek-Orthodox church technically bans us from taking communion in any other church. But the rule is not enforced and most people don’t know about it. Permalink 11:37 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Hilaaaarious! Exactly as predicted. Within HOURS. You can play a BS vendor like a violin. pic.twitter.com/vewi6O2igd Permalink 11:31 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@BLebnene Sorry for the back and forth. We have final settled for a meet up with @nntaleb tomorrow Monday, January 7, 2019. The meeting will be held in Jbeil (Byblos.) We will confirm the venue shortly; but it will be somewhere near the old souk. (New Yorker Cup for example) Permalink 11:11 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Exaaaaaaaactly as predicted by previous 2 tweets in thread! Only half a day later. You block a psychologist or some similar small time BS vendor, they call you arrogant/egomaniac and will make all the mistakes in the book. Which BS vendor should I tick-off next? pic.twitter.com/O00CFDEbFo Permalink 10:58 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Salafis managed to get a Sunni Muslim Lebanese woman politician to apologize for attending church service, something that has been part of the fabric of Lebanese society. Result of Saudi funding of intolerance over the past 50y. Will happen in the West. pic.twitter.com/6hs5jhZ7K3 Permalink 10:20 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I think Pinker survives on statistical ignorance. Nothing else. https://twitter.com/jacyreese/status/1081950190972604416   Permalink 8:48 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@semacks In which Pinker completely ignores that @nntaleb published a paper that shatters the entire “violence is in decline” thesis and waves his hands about black swans more generally. Taleb’s paper actually covered the substance of Pinker’s argument: https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=851091091009083095089127115110075099034023058067019062072066004100009103081023097123034016097101060099003106115098003095116092026058012038004029004118103111073028059062024121067073124072085091092069010121104097107075021088001008095027011086119103085&EXT=pdf   https://twitter.com/52_insights/status/1081910305477808128   Permalink 7:48 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@Spfannenschmidt f(x) is not x Primary lesson from #RWRI Permalink 6:18 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why one needs an IQ test by some unintelligent rent-seeking psychologist to see if one is good at math when mathematical abilities are DIRECTLY and rapidly observable. https://twitter.com/zach_pinto/status/1081739672936693760   Permalink 6:14 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In 2008 debate told Mountebank @CharlesMurray that in France, Protestants & Jews were ~1% of population, had ~ share of Nobels & wealth. Are French Protestants a different race? Minorities everywhere fare disproportionately well. Disentangling genes from culture impossible. Permalink 5:00 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That fraud Molyneux made similar racist remarks linking me to the IQ of a presumed “ethnicity”. Alt-Right pple tend to suffer from clinically low levels of intelligence. Incidentally, for these cranks obsessing over race-IQ, East Med genetics haven’t changed since the Bronze age pic.twitter.com/qoSHaeRjJa Permalink 4:42 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Please don’t spread the information. Permalink 6:59 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It showed 84½ . Any problem with that? Permalink 6:47 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb When I went to finance, I discovered that those who *tawk* about money were the ones who didn’t have it, couldn’t make it, or wanted a lot more but couldn’t get it. Same problem with IQ. Those who insist on measuring IQ are … the most stupid. Permalink 6:17 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb His “country IQ” (U=used for racemongering) comes from education (test scores), which tends to FOLLOW not CAUSE devlpment Mr @GarettJones did you look at the dynamics? Countries like Korea/Switzerland had low literacy/education, got rich, THEN high education… see #Antifragile https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1081697009155768320   Permalink 5:55 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Income is not a measure of performance. But it is the LEAST nonsensical for analysis where things wash out. Plus I can use $5 to buy a meal. You cannot “eat” IQ points, SAT points, or vague academic notions such as prestige, rank, had picture taken with the Queen, etc. https://twitter.com/andrewronmo/status/1081714204090875904   Permalink 4:59 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Even when there is correlation between IQ and performance, it is SWAMPED by noise. Is it me or that psychologists have NO notion of noise? pic.twitter.com/pvENuD8oD8 Permalink 4:46 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Fat Tony Quotient = Intelligence Permalink 3:37 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb National average IQ is BS Permalink 3:27 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is called Intelligence. https://twitter.com/steveroh/status/1081691743576342528   Permalink 3:21 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ may correlate (noisily) to Income because of the circularity/employee effect. But it does not correlate to wealth. What’s in a name? “I” should be removed. PsycholobSers have the wrong definition of IQ. Permalink 3:20 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@NonMeek The first #Offshorecomic linked to @nntaleb’s [ https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39  ] ist fertig. Stay tuned for more. #IQ is for obedient losers [part 1 of x]. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sFnlgFVHHY”>  pic.twitter.com/sFnlgFVHHY Permalink 10:02 AM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb FRIDAY QUIZ (rephrased for clarity) pic.twitter.com/kSb9AnykLY Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb When someone refers to psychology “results” for backup, ask: what is the SINGLE significant result psychologists have discovered that is both correct and not well known (and used) by ancients, used car salespeople, magicians, & swindlers. Ignore psychologists. #Lindy. Permalink 9:53 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Founders of statistical “science” were mathematicians (probability). They understood the properties (& conditions) for tools they designed. But users of stats are clueless parrots blabbering words like “correlation”. NEVER teach statistics to those who don’t know probability. Permalink 6:11 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to this fellow @DegenRolf that all these contradictions are telling us is that variance of results from the IQ measure increases with IQ. Not a good thing. Please explain it slowly to him. https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1081118653737824256   Permalink 5:33 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Years ago I waged a war against “Value at Risk”, an equally bogus measurement; like IQ, had a bunch of nerds clinging to it because “we have nothing better”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=78&v=6QiiFSOrJhQ   Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Yes, indeed, systematically getting rid of people by blocking/muting. https://twitter.com/angiejchelala/status/1081169805355483137   Permalink 5:01 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That’s why social science failed to get convexity/#Antifragility (or something as elementary as Jensen’s Inequality). https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/1080800546813034499   Permalink 4:54 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb First blunder of 2019: Bought a Medieval Byzantine bio of Saint Symeon the Theologian thinking it was Saint Symeon the Stylite στυλίτης. Took me a while to realize it. pic.twitter.com/A7JSjcZNsE Permalink 3:59 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@YiannisArch This is the dorkiest response I’ve ever read. All praise king Taleb @nntaleb. And welcome to all his new fans who are surprised to see *high IQ* academics unable to understand a via negativa argument. https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/1080978692250034176   Permalink 2:02 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@mrraoofi @nntaleb has a talent in procuring enmity of charlatans and/or the ignorant. But I had never seen so much negative reaction to his previous works as to the present one about IQ. Everybody seems to be screaming and crying. Well-done sir! Permalink 10:51 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Friends, can someone find in this promo by propagandist @SteveStuWill info: – How many of these 1% fared “well” compared to 2%, 3%, .1%, etc? – Variance for 1% compared to other brackets – Any HARD correlation (not words) s.a. $ income? Ευχαριστώ πολύ! https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1080856310063788032   Permalink 6:53 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@FamedCelebrity I think the reason people get so angry over the IQ (test score) debate is akin to the heat in evolution arguments. That is, they are not interested in the subject matter per se, but in its supposed implications. Permalink 4:48 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists have the illusion that I am writing this critique of IQ for them. No. Never argue theology w/a Salafi Sheikh. Psychologists are the losers in & out of campus. I am writing to expose the lack of rigor of these “metrics” to “intelligent” scientists & Fat Tonies. Permalink 2:40 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The best map fallacy in The Technical Incerto, Vol 2. Geoff Miller is clueless. pic.twitter.com/bs4oqMRTVp Permalink 2:22 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Replaced the thread with this article https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 1:39 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@AhsanDeliri I find it amusing to see that @nntaleb took down the IQ Industrial complex not by defining what it is, but simply highlighting what it isn’t. It isn’t science, or predictive. Stripped of all that, Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare. Permalink 1:30 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Hello @StuartJRitchie, can you answer the following? Feel free to ask the geniuses in psychometrics. IQ below 100 correlates at 90% with performance IQ above 100 correlates at 10% with performance What’s the correlation IQ to performance? Permalink 1:21 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/jA5Nhgn1Xn Permalink 9:40 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/eyBiiUhL5g Permalink 8:14 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb HINT: partial correlation includes a statement about the mean. (No psycholophaster-psychometrician saw something that elementary) pic.twitter.com/1zmoUX3ylD Permalink 8:11 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Assume to simplify that both IQ and performance are Gaussian. Permalink 5:22 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A Quiz for IQ “researchers”. Something elementary. pic.twitter.com/tqhdt9CDDU Permalink 5:04 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I don’t randomly call people “imbeciles” publicly. Only when they claim “someone doesn’t know what he is talking about ” when it turns out that they don’t know what THEY are talking abt. Singal is done. He got pretty much everything wrong, from conscientiousness to correlation pic.twitter.com/DsKZmpl3Ro Permalink 3:09 PM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 12- Year in Review Someone got my paper on forecasing and vs the “methods” of @NateSilver538. I will explain the paper in a Youtube minimooc. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 2:30 PM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb (To echo Haldane, one ounce of correct algebra is worth more than a century of verbalistic statisticopsycholophastering). https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 7:36 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Can you go give unsollicited advice to someone else who care about your opinion? Permalink 7:25 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Need to add “not the same ting”, x vs f(x) https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1080451498067271680   Permalink 5:17 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Starting 2019 with a paper in … genetics I worked on while arguing with the IQ idiots. pic.twitter.com/PvZ90fu6Yu Permalink 4:58 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Just realized there is list of terms summarizing the INCERTO. Thanks! https://twitter.com/ArturoHerrero/status/1080439849491070976   Permalink 4:55 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@HectorIlias Cicero on IYIs and Romans vs Greeks. I’m enjoying the read a lot thanks to having read @nntaleb’s INCERTO before. pic.twitter.com/Kc9gGAgCP3 Permalink 4:00 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Still can’t get it. It DOES NOT “measure” abilities. https://twitter.com/miketranchina/status/1080277104774635520   Permalink 5:39 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I just published https://medium.com/@nntaleb/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:09 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NEVER talk about correlation 1) if you are a psychologist [they are klueless] 2) when there is nonlinearity such as IQ and performance. You can have 80% correlation with “performance” when it is 0 for positive performance, & high for negative. Compare to “SAT” and see the BS. pic.twitter.com/E7fQ9jL2iM Permalink 1:04 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb No. https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1080195496407388165   Permalink 12:57 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man Happy New Year! #blackswanman #theblackswanman #newyearsresolution #fightthefed #jiujitsu #daoofcapital #antifragile pic.twitter.com/0Bm9t7K1Ah Permalink 12:51 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Be-strayné (Happy New Year in Lebanese) Odds are, from its pronunciation, it came from *Estreine*, medieval French. As I cannot find it in Sabir and Med Lingua Franca, high probability it came from the Crusaders. @QifaNabki @PhDniX @Safaitic pic.twitter.com/LvoZEfObSl Permalink 7:23 AM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb No, “IQ” tests aren’t even close to what intelligence means, even excluding decision-making (wisdom). https://twitter.com/nietzsches_tash/status/1080085347680149505   Permalink 5:15 AM – 1 Jan 2019

@enzolamberti Grateful for 2018. Graduated (again), grew my library and spent quality time thinking about risk taking. The peak has been the incredible #RWRI week, led by @nntaleb, #raphaeldouadi and @financequant. To all my RWRI friends, I wish you a year of convex optionalities Permalink 3:09 AM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Happy 2019 everybody. Hope the new year delivers to you something you highly deserve but were too humble, too thoughtful, and too realistic to dare to wish for it. Permalink 5:40 PM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 11- Year in Review 2018: Started replying to intrusive, lenghty & boring emails in Italian, especially when the sender is not Italian. 2019: Will try Greek or Latin. Permalink 1:32 PM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I will be even more intransigent. Repeating thrice. Ciao https://twitter.com/jonhaidt/status/1079826085934714881   Permalink 11:47 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@vidythatte If you’re a fan of @nntaleb & his tweets (like me) here are his top tweets from 2018 https://www.tweet-rewind.com/nntaleb.html   Permalink 10:56 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I can understand someone saying “listen, I love strangers but I am more comfortable w/my nationality, shared values” (homophily) or “neighbors get along better than rommates” (fractal localism). But making “others” genetically “inferior” using IQ “science” is quite sinister. Permalink 10:53 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL problem solved Bi-Strayné in Lebanese from: bi-Strenua or Strenia, Roman a goddess of the new year https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1079786887273959424   Permalink 9:14 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@paulportesi This is perfect. This is so funny. Nassim’s sense of humor is great. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1079585825506115585   Permalink 7:31 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@Safaitic Thanks you! There is a consensus that by the 10th century the language of Arabic poetry (the qasidah) was far removed from virtually all vernaculars. Mutanabbi certainly composed in an Arabic with the vocalizations in your post but he probably didn’t grow up speaking that way. Permalink 6:42 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@NonMeek This year’s final #Offshorecomic. A tribute to the best Tweetstorm ever @nntaleb vs the journo. #IQ #success Happy new year, y’all! For more visit http://www.offshorecomic.com   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cE8Etk2XhX”>  pic.twitter.com/cE8Etk2XhX Permalink 6:05 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb F***king hypocrite; Molyneux @StefanMolyneux thinks he can manage to keep posting strings showing lower “IQ” for Africans + heritability of IQ, catering to a Nordist supremacist following… …yet claim this is not racist so he doesn’t get banned from social media. Hypocrite. pic.twitter.com/LajdHGUepl Permalink 5:44 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An intelligent “current IQ” test is one that maximum number of successful pple (Gell-Mann, Feynman, Buffett, plumbers happy w/their lives, Musk, Umb. Eco) ace, & maximum number of unsucessful ones (bureaucrats, journalists, pple in jail) flunk, revised as environment changes. Permalink 5:30 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@rockwell_n2 I believe Taleb’s point is that we don’t understand the world well enough to define intelligence. What seemed intelligent in the year *blank* seemed incredibly unintelligent years later. Permalink 11:10 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Can someone explain how the psycholophasters got the IQ of Goethe, Einstein? By retro-testing? And stats for IQ of math/physicists? Selfreporting bias? I don’t know one mathematician who knows his/her IQ. Only IQ of physicist we know is Feynman’s (126 as he fluncked Mensa). Permalink 7:29 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb That was what I tried to convey to that hawker-mountebank Charles Murray @charlesmurray when he wrote his gerrymandering book on how the “West” was great, redefining West as whatever has been recently successful. Permalink 5:25 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb THE SUMMARY “”IQ” THREAD “IQ” measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shuffleE, you focus first on “WHY is he asking me that?”, whi []” #SkininTheGame #Lindy #antifragile #FooledbyRandomness https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1076845397795065856.html   Permalink 4:48 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I find these comparisons by @StefanMolyneux insensitive, silly, and failing basic introspective recursion. Someone from Babylon/Ancient Egypt/The Med/China could have, at some point, made similar comparisons entailing Northern Europeans. Then look what happened after 1600. pic.twitter.com/LJbUCqNwo2 Permalink 4:41 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@mikeandallie The most interesting piece of math I learned in 2018 – thanks to @nntaleb – was a an amazing limit related to both probability and calculus: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2018/06/27/a-fascinating-limit-to-share-with-both-calculus-and-probability-students/  . #math #mathchat Permalink 3:09 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Some overlap with the RWRI program –but much more technical. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 2:23 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An association for losers (of the Birkensock footwear category) whose major skill is scoring on a particular test. https://twitter.com/Connectitecture/status/1079501400281935872   Permalink 2:21 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY du JOUR A question for Maestro @Safaitic: how much of the diacriticals are original to Mutanabbi? Do you accept the idea that poets used a parallel language to the spoken one? https://twitter.com/almotanabby/status/1079489259814506497   Permalink 1:49 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Was it Tversky who said that all they were trying to do is formalize the corpus of used car salespeople. What shd replicate in psychology is what tricksters, illusionists, marketers, advertising pple, jilted lovers & crooks have known forever. #Lindy @ole_b_peters @stanley223 https://twitter.com/Stanley223/status/1079489173621481472   Permalink 1:40 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 32- WRAPPING UP – I said psychology was BS because something wrong between 50-100% of the time is the very definition of bul***st (a lie is wrong ~100%). – Selection of traits “tested” by IQ require predictability of future environment. – Will put everything in short article. Permalink 10:53 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 10- Year in Review One Tweetstorm countered close to a century of intelligence metrification (“IQ”) by nerds, & thousands of psychologists (& eugenists) who use probabilistic equations without knowing what is behind… One single Tweetstorm. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1079239238053490688   Permalink 7:32 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I never made that point. Never linked “IQ” (which I didn’t consider a “measure”) to evolution. I blocked Razib Khan @razibkhan because he claimed there were “flaws” in our GMO risk arguments but could not produce any. https://twitter.com/fitchett_adam/status/1079375852079669249   Permalink 7:24 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@MorrisseyHelena I’m all for more localism and devolved powers to regions & counties. And they are lovely flags! ⁦@Telegraph⁩ pic.twitter.com/zxPcAlgpXo Permalink 4:04 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@imleslahdin I paraphrased everything in Python (using google colaboratory). I might have misunderstood though (I tinkered a lot). Please correct if there is any mistake it’s an open notebook as a github gist (you can edit and run). https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/gist/Nydhal/2bb2831b3713dade324af65a3aabb88a   Permalink 9:06 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 31- Technical point: why the PCA behind the “g” is tooooooootally BS when correlation is not constant. Their math is entertainemnet. And indeed psycholophasters DON’T get it. This is the shape of the proof, more details to fill in. pic.twitter.com/MnLxxB1kMN Permalink 8:54 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why the “g” is BS as correlation is not constant pic.twitter.com/5rs5lFVyku Permalink 8:50 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why I am blocking @sentientist Because of course if you disagree with psychology there is something wrong with you. pic.twitter.com/eW1lsL0v6s Permalink 4:03 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb What @cshalizi intuited is in the variation of the PCA for a different realization; this is vastly worse. The PCA version of this https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   Permalink 2:21 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Severe problem w/psychologists. Deary doesn’t know how PCAs work (elementary misunderstanding of probability). But if you don’t agree with their metric there is something wrong with YOU. Popper called psychs charlatans. When you disagree, there’s something in your childhood… https://twitter.com/sentientist/status/1079107954027057152   Permalink 2:13 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb This is an example of what the brilliant Cosma @cshalizi intuited behing the failure of “g”. And the SAT is DIRECTLY covered by IQ tests from overlap. A low IQ “correlates” with low SAT, but a low SAT doesn’t “correlate” with low IQ. Now do that with other measures covered by IQ https://twitter.com/IdentityWithin/status/1079120246693416960   Permalink 2:02 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb DATA SCIENCE TRICK DU JOUR: How to make a random covariance/correl matrix that is positive definite? pic.twitter.com/rU4n0LBuij Permalink 7:00 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@normonics People who have learned to think in the RWRI @nntaleb style have uncommon clarity around systemic risk. It is not “difficult”, but generally requires a complete cognitive re-frame. Most unwilling or unable due to prior commitments of identity. Natural for @GuruAnaerobic https://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/1078779929670619137   Permalink 6:15 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb A vector of unknown dimensions. If we knew the dimensions we would be able to predict the future. (Popper/Hayek) https://twitter.com/srini_sateesh/status/1079016017672585218   Permalink 6:13 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 9- Year in Review People stopped giving me the wrong awards, honoris causa, etc., awards by BS vendors to resumé-building BS vendors (asinus asimum fricat). Here is the real thing. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1053256560758218752   Permalink 4:39 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@amconmag Trump “must find people who have remained outside the system during the permanent war years while being highly critical of its whole ideology and culture.” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/trump-scores-breaks-generals-50-year-war-record-syria-mattis-dunford/   Permalink 4:30 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am allergic to verbalistic Pinker-style talk abt something like “correlation”, “variance” w/o knowing what it REALLY means. Hence EVERY statistical concept needs to be rederived ab ovo. With IQ, 1000s of psychologist so far seem to NOT understand their own statistics! https://twitter.com/blackorwa/status/1078972980997341184   Permalink 4:25 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb How PCAs degrade under Fat Tails. I share code for everything in book. Since then function Random[ ] became RandomVariate[Distribution,{c,r}] pic.twitter.com/ngH1GEMKCG Permalink 3:37 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb They use a vertical form of Nestorian Syriac. pic.twitter.com/8rKA128bwn Permalink 6:07 PM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Mongolians write in the Nestorian alphabet, still today. https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1078822762343469056   Permalink 5:32 PM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I asked a specific question Mr @rjhaier, whether where tweets 17,18, 27, 29, 30, 7, 6, to select a few, correpond to “recycled” old anti-intelligence research, Charlatans talk: “we are aware of the shortcomings”… or “do you have better to offer?” https://twitter.com/rjhaier/status/1078699552515866626   Permalink 3:36 PM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Preparing for a new fall course at NYU @nyutandon called “Data science, Fragility, & Extremes”, Mondays 6-8 PM. About 50% is from my new technical book, 50% themes within Data science. pic.twitter.com/rZ1fd2l9JT Permalink 7:58 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 8- Year in Review (cont) To be ethical in 2019, do each of the following repeatedly. a- Invite someone who has no friends to lunch b- Make a rent-seeking BS vendor uncomfortable (if you can, really uncomfortable) c- Help someone in needs of funds but is not asking for help Permalink 6:13 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Mr Haier,@rjhaier, “intelligence researcher” Explain where tweets 17,18, 27, 29, 30, 7, 6, to select a few, correpond to “recycled” old anti-intelligence research, if you can of course. https://twitter.com/rjhaier/status/1078339660303163392   Permalink 4:23 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@MDiPaolaMD Nothing tests real world ambiguous situations with no perfect answer except real world ambiguous situations with no perfect answer Permalink 4:10 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Merci Editions Belles Lettres @BellesLettresEd pour ce dictionnaires de françois médiéval! Beaucoup plus riche que le français moderne … et le secret de Fréderic Dard. le dictionnaire est fait…par Takeshi Matsumura, de l’université de… Tokyo. pic.twitter.com/GAw7Ztr4b1 Permalink 3:36 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 30- Traders get it right away: hypothetical P/L from “simulated” strategies don’t count. Performance=actual. “IQ”: What goes in people’s head or reaction to a screen image doesn’t exist (except via negativa). And correlations in psych papers don’t count. https://twitter.com/emcilveen/status/1078475464522563585   Permalink 6:30 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Performance Real world performance https://twitter.com/ramonarobot/status/1078451554129080320   Permalink 4:47 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb IQ shd penalize some perceptional errors. IQ should accommodate perception of nonlinearity to aggregate payoffs: @yaneerbaryam picked it up right away “the mean-field error”, he said. But simplest problem is that measurements are cooked and terms like “correlation” don’t apply. https://twitter.com/davidboxenhorn/status/1078429267472646144   Permalink 3:20 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@HarryDCrane Major misunderstanding of statistics/p-values by scientists & statisticians: even if individuals control error rate exactly and correctly, we’d still have replication crisis. Cliff notes: RSS (.005 proposal) makes no sense, won’t work Long version: see https://youtu.be/vk9H246GrNQ?t=744   https://twitter.com/dougvk/status/1078353813642317824   Permalink 1:18 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Localism! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1078279012068327424   Permalink 1:15 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 29- A counter by a proponent of IQ w/what “g” offers best: explains ~½ the variance w.r. to academics. No “science” shd boast a measure that fails ~50%! Worse: counting circularity, hacking, the measure shd be wrong ~ 80% of the time! This is … fraud! https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022440518301031?via%3Dihub   Permalink 1:11 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@Stefano6412 Il latino e’ una lingua spietata con chi cerca di vendere aria fritta. Permalink 11:55 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@dittoaway Sorry but that is not how IQ testing works. Trial and error won’t work because you aren’t told the correct answer. Permalink 9:11 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 29- Note Charles Murray, @charlesmurray, is responding to these with series of ad hominem attacks (I mean really ad hominem). I will retaliate by sticking to the science. Permalink 8:33 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Charles Murray, you shd at least have the decency to index the person you are trying to slander: And this is the background about your friend Harris. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/967892546461556737   Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 28-CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY A flaw in the attempts to identify “intelligence” genes. You can get monogenic traits, not polygenic (note: additive monogenic used in animal breeding is NOT polygenic). The problem to some extent affect the “g” in IQ studies as it is multifactorial. pic.twitter.com/87weAlkplt Permalink 8:01 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #YellowVests #localism #skininthegame pic.twitter.com/IFU6wXcdx8 Permalink 5:18 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Isaac Levi, philosopher and probabilist, intellectual giant, RIP Few people in the past 2000 years went as deep into probability as you did. It was greatest luck to have met you. Ad vitam aeternam. pic.twitter.com/2iuU6jAuiC Permalink 4:56 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Machine Learning and Fat Tails Transcribed my M4 lecktchur @spyrosmakrid: the new nonlinear regression more effective than the old one pic.twitter.com/9JYQEzwqal Permalink 1:19 PM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb As Karl Popper said about psychoanalysis they always come up for an explanation for failure, then ad-hoc the crap out of it. Or blame you for not knowing psychology or having narcissistic tendencies or problems with your mother. Permalink 12:56 PM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can always leave psychology and get a real job. Permalink 12:42 PM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 27- Technical note I omitted: If IQ is Gaussian *by construction* & if performance is fat tailed, then either correlation betw IQ & performance doesn’t exist or is uninformational. It will show a finite number *in sample* but doesn’t exist statistically. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 11:56 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 26- I mute/block all pple comparing IQ to a physical measure s.a. height of basketball players. IQ as presented is NOT a measure. Reminiscent of risk charlatans insisting on selling “value at risk” & RiskMetrics saying “it’s the best measure”. Metrics need to have properties. Permalink 10:29 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There is an asymmetry that indicates most people who believe in IQ as a measure have a low IQ’ (some “real” intelligence metric). https://twitter.com/ddelruss/status/1077991832741601280   Permalink 10:22 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@ddelruss Ethically (per Taleb) observing a wrong and doing nothing is to perpetuate it (I forget which book, probably SITG). So when we observe misuse of metrics, broken models, dishonest arguments, etc, we are obligated to identify them. It’s ethics, not emotion – he’s not miffed. Permalink 8:12 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 25- For IQ idiots too slow: -If a 70 IQ is certain to fail but a 150 IQ has a significant probability of NOT succeeding, the ASYMMETRY has SEVERE statistical conseq. & “correlation” is BS term. -If variance is lower at some states & higher at others,”Bell Curve” is an illusion. Permalink 7:14 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Black Swan Man told you, Donaldo, that if you own the stock market on the way up, you will also own it on the way down. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1050766705667047426   Permalink 6:21 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I deleted my tweets ag. @davidgraeber (the only tweets I’ve deleted in past years since autodelete). I wanted to convey a strong message, prevent arbitrary petitions (having myself been the victim of a Monsanto initiated petition), not weaken him. Permalink 4:41 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 24- Note 2: “IQ selects for pattern recognition, essential for functioning in modern society”. Unfiltered pattern recognition makes you #FooledbyRandomness, to overnarrate, see false positives. Economics PhDs blow up in business. “IQ” good for @davidgraeber’s “BS jobs” Permalink 4:29 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nickpahountis pic.twitter.com/4bRHfCjgsv Permalink 3:53 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@GhassanDahhan IQ tests are very similar to how psychologists measure “intelligence” of dogs. This is based on their obedience to humans and how fast they follow instructions. Therefore border collies are seen as the “smartest”, while in fact they’re the most servile IYI’s of all dogs. Permalink 3:06 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 23- Note 1: Why is Intelligence = (long term) survival? Because convexity, missed by IQ tests. You want to make those mistakes with small consequences NOT those with large ones. Academics ~ always focus on frequency of error not magnitude. Too Gaussianized. See #antifragile Permalink 7:51 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@warehouseninja read https://opinion.inquirer.net/118414/blame-passing   and was quickly reminded of @nntaleb’s #SITG “the government would keep tabs on economists’ inflation and economic growth forecasts next year to make them accountable for their projections, which consumers and businesses use in making decisions.” Permalink 7:01 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 22- This tweet storm irritated many: 1) Charlatans with something to sell: without IQ & other *testing* psychologists have little to sell society; there is a vested interest in hacking/massaging the stats & defending the products. 2) Pple who want some races to be inferior. Permalink 7:00 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb If you look at my p-haking above all the numbers by the fellow are upper bound -add category selection & the story is grim. Discount the story by >½. “If IQ isn’t a valid concept, no concept in psychology is valid.” Sorry but psychology is largely bust. https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1057962295999885312   Permalink 3:30 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 20- This Tweet storm has NO psychological references: simply, the field is bust. So far ~ 50% of the research DOES NOT replicate, & papers that do have weaker effect. Not counting poor transfer to reality. How P values often fraudulent: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   Same for g factor Permalink 1:36 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@HarryDCrane The best/only place to learn prob/stat is “on the street”. Concepts that are second nature in the wild become convoluted in the classroom (p-value, confidence level). https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1077611993526194176   Permalink 9:55 AM – 25 Dec 2018

Psychology, Noah Smith, Kapish?, Saudi Barbaria, Bernie, Ottomans, Yugo, Lebanon | Twitter

@MaxAbrahms The problem isn’t that Hillary makes foreign policy mistakes, but that she makes the same mistake over & over again:https://twitter.com/capreble/status/723849697245442048   Permalink 5:32 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb بمالطه بيكتبوا لغه ساميه بالحرف اللاتيني @adnanhobalah @ZJoureir Permalink 11:47 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb La2. Sa3iid 3akl kan ma7sour billebnene. Ana bilshami (ye3n3 el suriyye w se2er el mashre2 bima biyon el daffe elgharbiyye.) @ZJoureir Permalink 11:11 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/ mitlma el telyene ballash bi-Dante 3eyzin 7ada yektub adab bil-shami. Permalink 10:58 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb El3uroube wellgha el3arabiyye killa tezwir tari5e. El-shami ligha lawa7da bte2rab el-3arabe wel-arame, 3ayzin niktub kitub fiya latballesh. Permalink 10:55 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Kurzweil is not dangerous at all: the fool will give a test case of failure to outsmart opaque & complex systems.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/723909943796076546   Permalink 9:32 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fake kebbe: made out of a vegan paste (w/fennel) for Orthodox lent.pic.twitter.com/FWeAiJfTF8 Permalink 3:10 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Pleased to see the Arabic script phased out in Lebanon, mostly Christian areas. Next: replace Arabic by #Levantinepic.twitter.com/VGGkHiYGvI Permalink 3:01 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@Peepsqueak Turns out Scientific American is a Monsanto shill! http://huff.to/1Sp5mNQ   |@nntaleb rt @PhonkArtpic.twitter.com/430C40CmKN Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mediterranean mezze (tapas) with local araq ouzo Beirut style. The Mediterranean is about small plates.pic.twitter.com/5a6UymSzLQ Permalink 11:17 AM – 21 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Letting the media monitor itself & influence policy is letting those at the bottom in both streetsmarts & schoolsmarts run the world. Permalink 1:57 AM – 21 Apr 2016

@Hayder_alKhoei From Pakistan to Mali, Saudi-financed madrasas have popped up and cultivate religious extremism & terrorism http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/21/opinion/obama-in-saudi-arabia-exporter-of-oil-and-bigotry.html   #pt Permalink 10:29 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Information is like a *swelling* balloon. It grows with time.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/722591957030076416   Permalink 11:19 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Answer: If s[x]>0 for {x:F>1/2} => \int is >0. Background:The grrrreat M. Gell-Mann said work with prob outside [0,1]. It is just a weight! Permalink 5:23 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Said to be the Aramaic used by Egyptian admins. Countries didn’t switch to Ar. immed.;adapted Aramaic. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/718927788925804544   @HanySonbaty Permalink 5:17 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Achemenid Aramaic in Egypt (“Imperial Aramaic”) @HanySonbatypic.twitter.com/9gqjcsu42y Permalink 5:06 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Egypt spoke some Aramaic for ~1200 years before the Arab invasion. @HanySonbaty Permalink 4:50 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Now the core of the problem (still jetlagged!)pic.twitter.com/wbD8nXQZgB Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@adnanhobalah #syria @asadabukhalil @PierreABISAAB مش لازم نضل تاركينون يسرحوا و يمرحوا مدعي الخبره الاكيديميه ببلاد الشامhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/722835760160706561   Permalink 4:06 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb OK, first is true, second is false, but reveals an important inequality.pic.twitter.com/bQ3ZizKQ86 Permalink 4:25 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Aramean came to Egypt before Arabic (“mayya”, etc.) via the Persian invasion. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm   @HanySonbaty Permalink 4:16 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Removed more typos (jet lag). Proved first one, second TK.pic.twitter.com/GwKiSBSPrS Permalink 4:11 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Deleted tweets with typos and added conditions.pic.twitter.com/4FSKZCdf6n Permalink 3:58 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 7akiyna a2rab 3al-Arame minel 3arabehttps://twitter.com/THE_47th/status/722916556334714880   Permalink 3:42 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Antifragility and scale.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/710513143387185152   Permalink 1:51 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I got tipped off when @janinedigi (innocently) tweeted atrocities by Assad that were pictures of children in Lybia.https://twitter.com/JacksonDiehl/status/722829299657494528   Permalink 11:12 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic: When a ME think tank defines itself as “nonpartisan”, it is funded by Saudi Barbari/other Wahabi states.pic.twitter.com/IxQ2Tqp3eT Permalink 10:14 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am just conveying what everyone who doesn’t have a Phd in bullshittology called pol sci knows.https://twitter.com/raheeln/status/722823972035936256   Permalink 10:07 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In Lebanon sipping arak & heard something to got me enraged at think thanks. How Saudi Arabia captured Washingtonhttp://www.vox.com/2016/3/21/11275354/saudi-arabia-gulf-washington?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=feature%3Atop&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter   Permalink 10:04 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Debunking some spin about the Syrian warhttp://www.joshualandis.com/blog/presidents-al-assads-first-speech-an-insiders-account/   Permalink 9:05 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic. For a vacation place that’s not spoiled, not corrupt: no ski slopes, & no beaches. Permalink 7:21 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb To keep a balloon under water, you need to spend more & more energy.The DC lobbyist for Saudi Arabia can’t stop thishttp://nypost.com/2016/04/17/how-us-covered-up-saudi-role-in-911/   Permalink 6:05 PM – 19 Apr 2016

@DavidBCollum Lindsey Graham admits he’s a complete idiot/wuss/Saudi protectorhttps://twitter.com/thehill/status/722564703055167488   Permalink 5:06 PM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Someone saying “ethics is good for success” is missing the entire point of ethics. Permalink 9:10 AM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Saudi prince arrested in Leb for drug smugling. Saudis blackmailed Leb to release him. Leb said no, pull your $$.US will have same pride. Permalink 12:21 AM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb US says Saudi government has nothing to do w 9/11; only “members” of Saudi establ/Royal family that…run the placehttps://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/722251489494700032   Permalink 10:31 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am on my way to Beirut one of the very few places where Saudi Barbaria cannot reach me. Permalink 2:51 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is biggggg! They are progressively losing the state of denial that Saudi Arabia WAS indeed funding Jihadists.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/722172847351848961   Permalink 2:28 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb DEBATE: Ethical to give a women-only scholarship for the risk certificate? http://realworldrisk.com   @stevenstrogatz Permalink 9:39 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The EU developed into a tool for the bureaucratic class and lobbyists, hence as such will blow up. @hughhopper Permalink 9:30 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) The point is that if the Treasury needs junk math to convince you to stay, they did not find real aguments against it. @hughhopper Permalink 9:28 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr @tomstafford, again I asked you for a SINGLE counterample of a psych paper that got my Th. 1. One single will do.https://twitter.com/tomstafford/status/721621901089579008   Permalink 9:04 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Observe in my expurgating the system of BS-operator @Noahpinion how ethics follow the tenacious minority rule http://fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf   Permalink 8:04 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@zerohedge @nntaleb one reaction to the black swan piece http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-18/one-trader-finally-loses-it   Permalink 7:41 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I did write that book. It is called Antifragile.https://twitter.com/EngineerDiet/status/722068382800035842   Permalink 7:27 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Even without fat tails” is like saying “assume you remove one’s head”. @noise_random @rorysutherland @CravenPartners @Gerald_Ashley Permalink 7:18 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Why the UK Treasury equations are, mathematically, BS:in Silent Risk @CravenPartners @rorysutherland @Gerald_Ashleypic.twitter.com/WoJrOH3lCi Permalink 6:11 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Page to protect pple from Noah Smith @noahpinion BS operator and troll wBloomberg megaphone http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html  pic.twitter.com/6kaEwla8l6 Permalink 5:46 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Another oddity: the Ottomans until 1800s preserved Orthodoxy (deal w/Patriarch): Populations under them were Orth (Serbia vs Croatia) Permalink 5:42 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Indeed Machiavelli boasts of “bloodless wars”: knights had tough armor so were more like bar fights! technology=murder @alexapostolides Permalink 3:48 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My thesis director was a woman and there were 2 woman mathematicians on my committee. @stevenstrogatz Permalink 3:46 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nation State: Pre-unification of Italy battles were frequent but small e.g. Anghiari (~900 v.), Molinella (~600). WW1: 650,000 Italians died Permalink 3:33 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nero di Seppia. Last time before Orthodox Easter.pic.twitter.com/pLvxxQCQtk Permalink 4:57 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Not true. Not twice the intensity. More like … 10 times (part for those who are offensive to the general public).https://twitter.com/pauld1981/status/721810180162203648   Permalink 3:28 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We need to prevent Bloomberg from becoming a trolling platform https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/noah2.pdf   @davidjshipley @noahpinionpic.twitter.com/TnlXHbHFxW Permalink 3:24 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Here is the recent rigorous examination of the Christians under Umayads: Not so rosy. https://oi.uchicago.edu/research/publications/lamine/lamine-1-christians-and-others-umayyad-state   @BewilderedCopt @beshymike Permalink 2:25 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We know know that the Dhimi status was periodically rescinded, particularly under the abbasides @BewilderedCopt @beshymike Permalink 12:50 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Syria will have the same cyle as post Habsgurg Eastern Eur: after merger, Yugo back into more homogeneous states.https://twitter.com/sodronen/status/721760131743150081   Permalink 11:03 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A simple point in the article that explains why @Noahpinion failed his academic career.pic.twitter.com/7tINfCUHxi Permalink 10:54 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Historical rigor => comparing mores year by year: compare Ottomans 1480 to Europe 1480 (inquisition). Kapish? @drubald Permalink 10:36 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Irony of history:the more the Ottomans got Westernized,w/West structures/laws,the more they killed Christians @lilbabykeffiyeh @candela3paz Permalink 10:21 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In 1800s “The Mohammedan Wrld” was represented by a Greek FM.1980s:Egypt did not grant a Copt, Boutros-Ghali the rank of minister @beshymike Permalink 10:16 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Oddities of history: a Greek, Caratheodory Efendi (father of the mathematician) representing “the Mohamedan world”pic.twitter.com/awhReWggG2 Permalink 9:58 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Ottomans weren’t likeable; but Arabs were vastly more intolerant of Christians than the Ottomans. @beshymike @iShabi7a Permalink 9:47 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I vote for half of Bernie, for foreign policy.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/721733402714615808   Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Partly but remember Ottomans welcomed Sephardic Jews (Tessaloniki) & had Greek prime ministers. Not all black and white @lilbabykeffiyeh Permalink 9:11 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The very idea of Turkey as “nationality” was absent bef. Greek indep 1820 (even then, subjects), dev. after German and Italian unifications, Permalink 8:42 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You mean do NOT put probabilistic rigor into decision theory? @tomstafford Permalink 8:31 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nobody is saying Ottomans were social workers. But they tolerated minorities so long as there was $, unlike Turkish nationalists. @airdummer Permalink 8:19 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In Antifragile I discuss switch from imperial and tolerant Ottoman Empire to ethnic Turkish nationalism of late 19th Century with massacres. Permalink 8:12 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It Christian minorities have survived in the Levant, it is thanks to policies of the Ottoman empire. Reversal started with nation-states. Permalink 7:27 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Russia has nuclear weapons. The US has nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia has a large royal family with prediabetes. @Alea_ Permalink 6:28 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb And the Saudis already have a lot of gold,and Euro-based investments. They don’t have to sell $600 bn. And real estate…@sanatanabhasha Permalink 5:42 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Those who sell “precious” metals will receive … $$ it is a myth that money “leaves”, only price pressure @sanatanabhasha Permalink 5:37 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Lakens your paper is a verbose handwaving looping soup;I require rigorous mathematical presentation. @lakens @JPdeRuiter @Neuro_Skeptic Permalink 5:21 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@LaplaceHomeBoi @AdrianSterry @nntaleb @RudyHavenstein I propose the ‘NNT-value’. This measure the power of propagating bullsh*t until @nntaleb catch you Permalink 4:31 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Noah Smith @Noahpinion will resign from Bloomberg. He cannot use it a troll-platform @TonySandos @AdrianSterry @RudyHavenstein Permalink 3:37 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I could find a SINGLE book or paper in the psych of decisions that gets the point of Th 1. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  https://twitter.com/tomstafford/status/721621901089579008   Permalink 3:34 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Show a single COUNTEREXAMPLE of a psychology paper that does not violate the theorem 1. @jlmcht Permalink 3:33 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@AdrianSterry @RudyHavenstein @nntaleb NNT responds to assholes .0001% of the time, it’s just that instead of telling them to f*** off,he destroys them Permalink 2:35 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The other accounting pbm w/Saudi Arabia: by the time they start selling their reserves, now only $600b will be reduced by $300 bn Permalink 7:30 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Finally getting a compliment about Saudi Arabia.https://twitter.com/LongShortTrader/status/721525231173636096   Permalink 7:28 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Never hit the Obama administration, threatened by Saudi Arabia’s divestment, to ask: where will you put your $750bn? In Kuwaiti Dinars? Permalink 7:23 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Where we get more coherence from the Daily News than the “intellectual” NYT.https://twitter.com/GEsfandiari/status/721513453383524352   Permalink 7:10 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith were you”resigned” from Stony Brook for inability to do research or did you depart on your own? Was Bloomberg informed? @Noahpinion Permalink 6:07 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Added more to paper showing equity premium puzzle is miscalculated, an extension of Th 1. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  .pic.twitter.com/iZQuxGEpzV Permalink 3:42 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Democracy Shmemocracy, vague and gamable constructs. What matters is governance, absence of an agency problem, absence of rent seeking. Permalink 3:06 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms What’s amazing is how little Americans seem to care about Saudi involvement in 9/11, except for the widows https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/status/721451629644529664  . Permalink 2:37 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith so you wrote a critique of Karthik Arthreya’s book w/o having read it? “On the disgusting side” @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/UvSyrigQPU Permalink 2:12 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@Buy_Hold_Drink @nntaleb deals smackdown to @Noahpinion over shotty reporting. If reporters question the people, who questions the reporters? NN, that’s who Permalink 1:19 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith are there other books you’ve written abt w/o having read & if so, which ones? Or do you want someone else to reveal? @Noahpinion Permalink 1:11 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Noah Smith’s credibility is now gone (more TK) but by stopping at Bloomberg I would be letting down authors victimized by media. @Noahpinion Permalink 12:51 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@DFSalbatross @nntaleb there is nothing i enjoy more than seeing you go after people like this. of all applications of your philos, ethics most important Permalink 11:53 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So, Mr Smith, if someone asks you to mispresent something, and you complied, it ceases to be a misrepresentation? @Noahpinion Permalink 11:48 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Journos feel ENTITLED to write anything they can spin about you. Try to make them accountable & they freak out.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721392300446711808   Permalink 10:42 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So you mean the dean encouraged you to hide you were no longer prof. to gain credibility as columnist, Yes/No? @Noahpinion Permalink 10:39 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because I have the means, the audience & the will, I am morally obligated to vindicate authors terrorized by the press & make it accountable Permalink 10:10 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith, “a year leave?”. Your dean said in Jan: “he is not with us” & “he is not coming back”. Was he lying?https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721087624333492225   Permalink 10:02 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb OK, OK. Saints can be dangerous. So I prefer Saint Ron Paul to Saint Bernie though they have similar foreign policy.https://twitter.com/DoubleEagle49/status/721365398357020673   Permalink 8:52 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Not abt wrong but about being ETHICAL & fixing erroneous statements. Press is accountable. Kapish?@PaulThomasiii @Noahpinion @davidjshipley Permalink 8:43 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Breach of Journ Ethics by Bloomberg View & @Noahpinion; staff refusal to correct @davidjshipley cc:@MikeBloombergpic.twitter.com/kcDiYCud3c Permalink 8:25 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb An author *knows* if someone has read his/her book or bullshitting. In the case of Noah Smith it is blatant. @BenGoldN @Noahpinion Permalink 7:14 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@zerohedge @nntaleb he wrote a bunch of comments about ZH without actually having read any of it Permalink 6:20 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb They catching up to the fact that Noah Smith @noahpinion has written comments on The Black Swan without reading it.https://twitter.com/opento/status/721326705185570816   Permalink 6:19 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Try to mentally construct someone with the integrity of Bernie Sanders but with your political opinions. He raises standards! @saifedean Permalink 6:14 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Here is an explicit distribution of P-Hacking, as well as problems with power. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532v3   @JPdeRuiter @Neuro_Skeptic Permalink 6:13 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Sainthood: financially & personally uncorruptible, pure moral integrity. He can be right, or wrong, can’t be bought.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/721317569446178816   Permalink 5:59 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bernie Sanders has all the attributes of a secular saint. Regardless of the effects of his policies, he brings sainthood to public service. Permalink 5:41 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith tried to use his “academic” status to impart a scholarly credibility to his article. Scholarly he is not. @foxyforecaster @Noahpinion Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fighting terrorism while protecting perpetrators: The Obama admin compromises moral values: ever happened before?pic.twitter.com/byoc7bebB4 Permalink 5:02 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nachkari @LongShortTrader @nntaleb Noah is a partisan hack masking as an econ. He comes off as the archetypal econ that Nassim rails against Permalink 9:03 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Now a harder question, Mr Smith. Did you READ The Black Swan? Yes/No. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:39 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb But you should certaily be fired by any decent outfit for misrepresenting my ideas in The Black Swan in an article. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:27 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you say thay you are teaching at Stony Brook, there is no problem and I withdraw. Are you a professor there, Yes/No? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:25 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Back to the original question: why are you claiming to be at Stony Brook when you are not there? Why aren’t you answering? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:21 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It is only criminal to lie under oath or under some circumstances. Try to consult with legal before more bullshitting here. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:18 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If I ceased to teach at NYU I would not find it ethical to claim that I am a professor at NYU, no matter the title. @DreadCrash @Noahpinion Permalink 8:11 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I did not use “criminal”: your actual activity does not match your claims. Why? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:07 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Stop putting words in my mouth. You claim to be assistant prof at Stony Brook. When was the last time you taught there? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:02 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb That’s what fraudsters and bullshitters say when they are caught.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721103376767852544   Permalink 7:48 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb But… I am living well. I am just allergic to fraud & fraudsters. @WLTSchirano @Noahpinion Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is big: an implicit admission of involvement by Saudi Barbaria, or role of members of the royal family.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/721167105211564032   Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Scheduled for an interview w/Bloomberg TV. But from editors’ behavior @noahpinion I feel moral disgust. What to do? Permalink 7:31 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@TradeScylla Let’s show a little love for @nntaleb. A blogger lied and he didn’t let it go. If only #politics worked like this.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/721052151498338304   Permalink 6:36 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My theory was that someone like Noah Smith who writes BS will have many other instances of BS, hence …https://twitter.com/blightersort/status/721112619327819778   Permalink 4:13 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Another liar: ceux qui se ressemblent s’assemblent. https://twitter.com/amonck/status/721102923879620608   Permalink 3:32 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You have ALL the attributes of an intellectual fraudster. @Noahpinion @arosaen Permalink 3:31 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) And MISREPRESENTING is not an idea problem but a CHARACTER problem. Kapish? @Noahpinion Permalink 3:24 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) Point is not that Smith @noahpinion is wrong but that he actively MISREPRESENTS my work. & this is the 4th time. Msrprsntng is UNETHICAL Permalink 3:23 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I do not think that there is a single academic on the planet who does not notice his “citation” thing.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721088725929762816   Permalink 3:19 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith @noahpinion:agrees w/passage(bt makes me say opposite) His editor @JamesGreiff”Smith sees things differently”pic.twitter.com/UEP4MRfSaj Permalink 3:02 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Liekwise when people are caught making a logical fallacy, they call it a “disagreement”.https://twitter.com/normonics/status/721086028564471813   Permalink 2:26 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith you willingly spread this mistake on citation count. Yours was 0, not 5,483. @davidjshipley @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/TQlD4c69tL Permalink 2:21 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Black Swan about “overestimation”.It’s in CHARACTER for Noah smith to MISREPRESENT. @davidjshipley @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/pIcSM8Xdqu Permalink 1:35 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because I’ve seen Mr Smith committing other misrepresentations. It is his CHARACTER. @davidjshipley @jon4fish @Noahpinion Permalink 1:27 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Just ask the subject: Mr. Noah Smith have you been lying for 5 months about academic position? @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 1:14 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The dishonest part is MISREPRESENTING the idea. It is a matter of CHARACTER nothing to do with idea. @jon4fish @Noahpinion Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Call the University. I just verified with another member of the department, was told the same. @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 1:01 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith SHOULD HAVE changed his CV Bloomberg bio. @foxyforecaster @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:59 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Was informed in December that Noah Smith was no longer at U since he wasn’t fit for research. @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:55 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Further one does not have to write a rebuttal to Noah Smith when it was ALREADY in the book. Have some ethics. @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:44 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We can confirm that Noah Smith has been LYING about his position at Stony Brook. Does Bloomberg condone such BS? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:42 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Dear Mr Bloomberg, @MikeBloomberg, is it Bloomberg policy to allow journos writing about books they haven’t read? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:32 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith have you read T Black Swan before commenting? Is it Bloomberg policy to have journos randomize comments? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:29 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Since Mr Noah Smith I gather you haven’t been at Stony B. since at least Dec, why do you misrepresent position? @Noahpinion @davidjshipley Permalink 12:18 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Once again, Mr Smith, are you currently at Stony Brook Yes/No? @Noahpinion @SpeakingBee @mjd1735 Permalink 12:06 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb David Shipley @davidjshipley is the editor of Bloomberg View. Who was involved in editing/factchecking @noahpinion?https://twitter.com/LucasWilk/status/721050679729647616   Permalink 12:05 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Another point: Is Noah Smith hiding that he was thrown out of academia? It is compatible with his behavior @SpeakingBee @mjd1735 @Noahpinion Permalink 11:51 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Actually given that it was in The Black Swan Noah Smith violated journalistic ethics misrepresenting the idea &book. @mjd1735 @Noahpinion Permalink 11:11 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bob Shiller is v. honest, just showing since paper is being used. As to Pinker, I tried & tried convincing him privately before going public Permalink 9:43 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr @noahpinion,was told your academic career was cut short at Stony Brook. Why does you keep in bio? Am I wrong? @Kurtosis_ @InjuredThales Permalink 9:40 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb For those who ask: Bloomberg article abt Black Swans has same flaws as the Pinker article on war. Except worse.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/720989442194960384   Permalink 9:26 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb https://twitter.com/MarcosCarreira/status/324801689053962241   Bruno attributed this phrase to you Permalink 8:11 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Shiller paper is flawed. 1) wrong estimator 2) Bad tail prob https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf   @InjuredThales @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/QbwATMYrh3 Permalink 7:57 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Astrology does not influence policy makers, but BS psychology a la Sunstein does! https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153769251858375  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/720951206860992513   Permalink 6:58 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb As the 5b fine shows, the main difference between Goldman Sachs & other criminal organizations is, simply, better & more connected lawyers. Permalink 6:28 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You look at astrologers as a field of BS,I look at psychology as same but w/arrogance @Research_Tim @Firefly_fan @CoyneoftheRealm @ja_furman Permalink 5:25 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Psychology is so bullshit that it takes outsiders to debunk @Research_Tim @Firefly_fan @CoyneoftheRealm @ja_furman https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153769251858375   Permalink 5:14 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This response illustrates the resistance against anything but a 7th C language –& of course 7th century thinking.https://twitter.com/Quran_Chart/status/720773858316267521   Permalink 5:10 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mistranslation: “Atabeg Zanki God has mercy upon him) shd be “the late Atabeg Zanki”, رحمه الله = ref to departed @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhan Permalink 4:36 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Penguin translator is a BS operator: 60-70 in the original becomes 80. #bewarelazytranslators @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhan Permalink 4:31 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Minority rule: Yunan a Christian confronted 70 robbers; intimidated them t safe passage. @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhanpic.twitter.com/UlZTKBZIJh Permalink 4:29 AM – 15 Apr 2016