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Tetlock, Payoffs, Urbanism, Arbitrage, Estonia, IQ, LOCALISM, Assange, Psychology, Christakis, Belgrade, Nate Silver, Pinker, @AOC , Peterson | Twitter

@nntaleb 15 years ago, I went into psychology trying to figure out how humans misunderstand probability. All I figured out is how psychologists don’t understand probability. Permalink 9:39 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Our great ally… https://twitter.com/marwa__osman/status/1120712087255252993   Permalink 9:37 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb More precise & accurate representation of the mistake; fixed typos. pic.twitter.com/Z2lqshFo3y Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cleaner @ptetlock’s (Phil the rat) mistake. [more precise] Science is hard Risk is hard. pic.twitter.com/Z3VYClErdD Permalink 7:56 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Exact Distribution of different types of payoffs & their conflation in the verbalistic psychology literature. [ref to my bone with @Ptetlock and the forecasting gurus who live on a salary (nonprofit)] pic.twitter.com/7LH5Xz9VWi Permalink 6:37 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “If you worry about your reputation you don’t deserve to have one.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #reputation Permalink 12:15 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 4/4 understanding @nntaleb ‘s recent paper here is also critically important to understanding what can go wrong when you approximate financial markets with brownian motion: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1117456873605742592   Permalink 12:06 PM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Markers of aging: 1- You stop learning something new 2- You talk too much about aging 3- The things you forget aren’t the things you should be forgetting Permalink 11:50 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Why I call @Ptetlock a rat. He SIGNED on this paper then renegged & stabbed me in the back WITHOUT even contacting me (to get forecasting contracts). pic.twitter.com/qxnjM8yKVT Permalink 10:54 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Can someone ask @michaelshermer to explain the equations he is commenting on? Twitter is not generous with BS vendors. https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/1120363967358963714   Permalink 9:43 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb I am Christian. I live 11 miles from Salafis. I have skin in the game. And I tell you in past 10y Shiites paid a horrible price. Same during Ottoman era. Permalink 7:22 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Actually… Shiites! They paid the heaviest price. Salafis have been butchering them without much outcry. https://twitter.com/cernovich/status/1120162013857161218   Permalink 6:28 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@normonics To @nntaleb’s point: you can only learn from an academic how to be an academic Instead of conveying embodied knowhow from a place of deep understanding, an academic will formulate answers to “essay questions” and “explain his reasoning” in order to keep his GPA up https://twitter.com/hostageklller/status/1119367322379202562   Permalink 6:01 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typo: the integration is over any subset of A. Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb At the center of my problem with Phil “the rat” Tetlock @Ptetlock is only a matter of…elementary calculus upon which EVERYTHING in his “forecasting” work is built. Elementary. pic.twitter.com/Dn67PIPOz4 Permalink 5:39 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@TalebQuotes Decline starts with the replacement of dreams with memories and ends with the replacement of memories with other memories. Permalink 10:42 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “When you define yourself as “localist”, nobody frames you in the “partisan” box; both the “left” & the “right” take you for one of them. The only people in favor of centralization are lobbyists, bureaucrats, & DC parasites. Yet the world is centralizing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:31 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Where I show situations (very common in real life) where you NEED to be a poor forecaster to do well in life and business, and vice versa. [Long proofs] (with Some comments on the “scholarship” of the dishonorable Phil “the rat” Tetlock @PTetlock) pic.twitter.com/4Qhnclxlwt Permalink 3:44 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@sustain05 “Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn’t: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times …causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today.” ~ Nassim Nicholas Taleb pic.twitter.com/zPSyBz6Fz7 Permalink 1:52 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@GOATProfessor Seeing Holy Week tweets about Jesus being persecuted by “White patriarchy” of the Roman Empire. That is false history and this piece from @nntaleb shows the problematic nature of that claim. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “We are prone to epidemics of fallacies (scientism, universalism, academism, psychosociologism, stateworshipism), but not epidemics of wisdom, as nature filters out those with bad immune system.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:41 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday for those who celebrate it today. Permalink 5:13 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb We should have a plan to eliminate Google. https://twitter.com/business/status/1119831495529594882   Permalink 2:23 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@kpchand07 I would urge you to read about IQ as it is a discredited and pseudo-science technique. Many “studies” checking country level IQ’s use “proxy” tests to establish IQ. IQ itself is information-less. @nntaleb has written in this area: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 12:27 PM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb THE CARPENTER FALLACY In our Precautionary Paper we warn against using “experts” in biology to get tail risks of GMOs, even if they aren’t shills: just as a carpenter is not the one to use to compute probabilities of tail payoffs at a roulette table. https://twitter.com/Benjami47068297/status/1119594805422624768   Permalink 6:41 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Our current system (urbanism) is incapable of learning from its mistakes. https://www.baconsrebellion.com/wp/antifragile-urbanism-skin-in-the-game-and-building-what-works/   Permalink 6:37 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No! Rationality is more rigorous than shallow @R_Thaler BS https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bil Lébnéné (In Lebanese): Iza shéra3t l fehmén ana brba7 Iza shéra3t l finnas huwwé byerba7 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114185871841026049   Permalink 4:30 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@bWestenra “There is no such thing as ‘rationality’ of a belief, there is rationality of action.” – @nntaleb, via @rorysutherland 6/12 Permalink 2:34 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@dianadarke #NotreDame #Architecture #Europe #Syria Acknowledging Europe’s debt to earlier cultures – via a recent interview with @TheNationalUAE https://www.thenational.ae/arts-culture/qalb-loze-inside-the-syrian-church-that-influenced-notre-dame-s-architecture-1.851385   Permalink 2:21 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cc:@spyrosmakrid Permalink 4:34 AM – 19 Apr 2019

@nntaleb #Lindy Permalink 3:54 AM – 19 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is more technically, a RE-conversion. At least, the way converts themselves present it. And ironically it may be the result of and reaction to Wahabisms. https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Muslims-convert-to-Christianity-in-Syrian-town-once-besieged-by-ISIS-587021   Permalink 7:03 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The problem of these Middleburry idiots is that by attacking and muzzling @CharlesMurray they made a hero out of a mountebank (and, as far as his report of my encounter with him, a bald-faced fabricator). https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1118995502408671234   Permalink 5:42 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Obama, many of the destroyed Syrian churches and monuments PRECEDE Notre Dame. https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1118945629517099009   Permalink 2:32 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Arbitrage boundary pic.twitter.com/dsJGLqqxaE Permalink 1:55 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@GregorySMcMurry According to the De Broglie–Bohm theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Broglie%E2%80%93Bohm_theory   Black Swan Man is correct. Any information that we could possibly obtain from the past wouldn’t help us because there are nonlocal hidden variables uniting our present & the past into one totality https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1118861754015080449   Permalink 1:37 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Better have these just OK, plus friends/family, plus ability to sleep well, than be a hot shot, billionaire, or King. @VerginDen has is right. https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1118868537706205186   Permalink 9:28 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Estonia. https://twitter.com/graafik/status/1118832590432215041   Permalink 6:43 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #blackswanmobile #timetravel #flaneuring #AmorFati pic.twitter.com/bVNkdyV05s Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@ThomasGrava La vraie différence en politique n’est pas une gradation “droite” vs “gauche” mais plutôt “Grecque” vs “Romaine”. “Grecque” préférant la théorie à la pratique. “Romaine” préférant la pratique à la théorie. (Théorie de la ‘Décentralisation Fractale’ @nntaleb) pic.twitter.com/HL8VbFTiRE Permalink 3:59 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Alas… https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1118503155581407232   Permalink 8:13 AM – 17 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Ship of Theseus. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1118349975606325248   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb ENTROPY DU JOUR The information content of your tweet is a (very) nonlinear function of the probability a subject NOT being discussed, or the language used not being bland & common. Same for conversation. Same for everything. Especially business. pic.twitter.com/2dYRqWnbJk Permalink 6:58 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “The problem isn’t being on a salary. The problem is enjoying it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #money Permalink 4:42 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 5 They don’t tell you that you are more likely + to learn a foreign language in a bar than in a classroom + to learn mathematics while trading than doing homework + that schoolteachers are a great model of what not to become when you grow up Permalink 2:58 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb I am surprised it is taking so long before someone finds in Hugo’s novel Notre Dame de Paris (The Hunchback of ND) a sentence that vaguely predicts yesterday’s fire. Permalink 2:19 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate). The best so far this season! pic.twitter.com/Phf0NRRn1K Permalink 12:48 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate). The best so far this season! pic.twitter.com/Phf0NRRn1K Permalink 12:48 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@FattestFatTony The pencil necks dont understand, @nntaleb is what the Jamaicans call a #Shotta… Likkle man, nah test nah #Shotta… https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1118226014113607681   Permalink 12:43 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@StillmanMD Doctors aren’t just #fooledbyrandomness, they’re taken for a ride by lying #BigPharma! @normonics @nntaleb @trishankkarthik @FattestFatTony https://twitter.com/JAMAInternalMed/status/1118167592710103043   Permalink 11:36 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 4 That debt helps growth & “innovation” (promoted by bankers) + Neither the Industrial Revolution (Brittain) nor the technological one (Silicon Valley) were financed by debt. + Debt is for wars, crony capitalism, bailing out friendly companies. Permalink 10:36 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@EthanHBellamy Love this from @nntaleb. I’m the Chairman Mao of parenting. pic.twitter.com/O5HeNnQVan Permalink 8:03 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb SCHOLARSHIPS FOR WOMEN ————————————- Scholarships are available for women & Syrian students (& others from similar places) for the 11th program, RWRI-11, June 24-28 in NYC Please mail a (short) CV to the coordinator. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 7:09 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb In general, when people selfstyle themselves “entrepreneur”, “polymath”, or something of the sort, they’re not. Real entrepreneurs calls themselves “restaurant chain CEO”, “Ski equipment manufacturer”, “kidney imaging importer”… Permalink 4:58 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty, https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Politics_and_Ethics_under_Uncertainty   https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/1118117227285426176   Permalink 4:46 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@tripoli187 So what are you trying to imply? That northern euros can lay claim to Mediterranean & near eastern civilisations of ancient antiquity, when culturally & racially they were not the same people & played no role? Permalink 12:14 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@normonics “A paper should be written like a car manual not a f#*$in chapter in a romance novel” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:53 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@NonMeek Learning about #IQ by turning @nntaleb teachings into cartoons. Simplifying to under 50 words without losing any content is hard. I hope I nailed it [IQ correlates, part 1 of x]. #science #psychology pic.twitter.com/ZuubQI8YIX Permalink 11:41 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Never pathologize (bounded) failure. Pathologize the refusal to try. Permalink 11:11 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This imbecile doesn’t get that in real life one is not paid in frequency but in dollars. Fail frequently, stay convex. Learn to fail. https://twitter.com/michaelskolnik/status/1117788896321048577   Permalink 11:09 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2) Phil the Rat Tetlock @ptetlock would probability spread “criticism” by fortune tellers if he found any. Here is how fake the article is. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116317447307526148   Permalink 9:30 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 1) Academia is suicidal. In order to discredit me “Phil the rat” @Ptetlock (“repeatedly stab a friend in the back Phil tetlock”) spreads a linkbait written by a phantom “mathematician”, which he didn’t read (he didn’t realize there is NO fat tails in the discussion). pic.twitter.com/jLLQi7FkH0 Permalink 9:28 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The point is that people who f***ck with you online don’t dare to do so offline. Permalink 9:22 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Why is it that people are surprised to NOT find an ogre when they run into me offline? pic.twitter.com/9f6uTUXJ0d Permalink 9:15 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Without skin in the game: Smart drug dealers become pharmacopsychiatrists; smart astrologists become economists; smart serial killers write for the Wash Post; smart bullshitters become “experimental” psychologists; and smart bankrobbers become bankers.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:10 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@holland_tom “#Naples is the most mysterious city in Europe, the only city of the ancient world which didn’t perish like Troy, Nineveh or Babylon. It’s the only city in the world which didn’t drown in the huge shipwreck of ancient civilization. Naples is a Pompei which was never buried.” Permalink 7:30 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@JamesMarsh79 This is what @nntaleb has been saying https://twitter.com/humanprogress/status/1117600681219772416   Permalink 6:42 PM – 14 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/5KkDwNJPDS Permalink 8:57 AM – 14 Apr 2019

@nntaleb MATHEMATICAL FINANCE DU JOUR A robust method for tail option pricing. pic.twitter.com/5LqIcg6Lth Permalink 7:58 AM – 14 Apr 2019

@n_santama Last week, we had the great luck of visiting Baalbek/Heliopolis (Greek for “Sun City”), a city inhabited uninterruptedly for 8-9000 years! It is built in the Bekaa valley, between the (still snowy) spectacular Eastern & Western Mountain ranges of Lebanon 1/9… #Baalbek #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/Bm4KiN90M2 Permalink 1:08 PM – 13 Apr 2019

@MccluskyMark Super cool outcome of @nntaleb’s #rwri is the fun connections it’s led to, from complexity scientists like @normonics, rebel authors like @GuruAnaerobic, nocturnal philosophers like @trishankkarthik, market decoders like @mikeharrisNY and global oil magnates like @SeloSlav. pic.twitter.com/Cw8hsfvV9J Permalink 12:37 PM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And in Lucky Luke (a French cartoon), Averell Dalton is the most stupid. pic.twitter.com/zlzFUvpkj8 Permalink 9:19 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@AhsanDeliri I was wondering why @nntaleb is under so much noisy baseless attacks. Then it hit me. He studies the root of all fields in life. Risk under uncertainty. His works touch on medicine, politics, economics, business, health, nutrition, entrepreneurship, information theory. Permalink 8:39 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typo pic.twitter.com/9wv47TkMGS Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb INVERSE QUIZ DU JOUR Is there a mistake of exposition? Or it is my derivation that is wrong. pic.twitter.com/FmoTKLq7NI Permalink 5:21 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntalebbot “In poor countries, officials receive explicit bribes; in D.C. they get the sophisticated, implicit, unspoken promise to work for large corporations” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 12 Apr 2019

@paulportesi Is it just me or is there an inordinate amount of noise directed at @nntaleb. It seems like record levels. Coming from every direction. He must be doing something right and striking a nerve. He’s agitating the enemy. Permalink 4:21 PM – 12 Apr 2019

@inlukka Light green shows the natural boundaries of the union. pic.twitter.com/7Qpk3KwuVE Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@ozmudurvekili dear mr taleb the newly elected secular mayor of izmir wants to establish a mediterranean union pls rt & show support https://twitter.com/izmirbld/status/1115903326636445698   Permalink 11:29 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@ggreenwald The only 2 times I can remember establishment liberals like @HillaryClinton and @SenSchumer uniting with and cheering Trump Admin is when (a) he bombed Syria and (b) they indicted Assange (Schumer also cheered moving embassy to Jerusalem). That says a lot about their values. Permalink 9:25 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The Ancient Egyptians represented females as light skinned, males as dark. Simply, sun exposure. [Met in NY] In 19tn C. Damascus, women were never exposed to the sun, with shielded inner gardens. To “stay white and avoid aging” (“la tdalla bayda w ma tja33éd”) pic.twitter.com/UDrBPgbXr8 Permalink 7:05 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 13) The National IQ/Skills regression. This charlatan, the researcher @GarettJones wants us to believe in *race=intelligence* but is not intelligent enough to hide from us the data points. You can draw a line of any slope into this. (cc:@EconTalker) pic.twitter.com/JuB9pl9wp1 Permalink 7:00 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@Brilliant_Ads True story pic.twitter.com/kkI1V2so4p Permalink 5:57 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@NateAFischer For years I’d seen @PeterRex do things that defied conventional wisdom but produced extraordinary results. In Antifragile @nntaleb helped me understand the rationale behind these actions. https://twitter.com/peterrex/status/1116399308750725121   Permalink 5:52 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 12) My latest details in the busting of “correlation” IQ-something. I noted that when I saw the graphs book by mountebank @CharlesMurray IQ is uninformative under nonlinearity. pic.twitter.com/VbeyCPbyTG Permalink 5:48 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And if you need to refer to race, use the 3 ROBUST geographical designations: Caucasian (i.e. Western Eurasian), Subsaharan, East Asian, (not more than 4). “White” is indicative of purity, not race. Permalink 5:13 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The first time we used “ergodic” in connection with the Precautionary Principle was in an unpublished paper with Aaron Brown in 2013. Before we knew of @ole_b_peters. But we didn’t formulate the math then. Earlier, presented in Fooled by Randomness. cc:@yaneerbaryam @normonics pic.twitter.com/cnBjxX8T04 Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb By “Nordicist” I mean Northern European supremacists. Permalink 4:40 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Don’t use “White Supremacist”. Use Nordicist. Please. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 4:34 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 11) David Becker is the source of the study: quite alarming handwaving with clueless statistics. In later papers they use “proxies” to obtain IQ. The author of the article is @JamesPsychol James Thompson, a nonacademic psychologic with SINISTER obsessions. pic.twitter.com/Nu9w5Kj0Zr Permalink 3:32 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is good news: people learning to take ergodicity into account for dynamics !!! pic.twitter.com/MP5G4138Iv Permalink 3:11 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Re: Roger Scruton. Why I no longer do interviews with UK journalists. Nobody should. https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 6:16 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@Firsou This is the thinnest building in Beirut, Al-Ba3sa aka “The Grudge”. It’s two feet wide at minimum and was built by one brother who wanted to obstruct another’s view of the sea. Is there a place for building out of spite in the eternal way @normonics ? pic.twitter.com/Ltgk5l0K9L Permalink 4:18 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 10) One can raise IQ points by 2 STF just by training, so it can’t be genetic. PS- I’ve been getting 1000s of such messages since I’ve posted the IQ piece by Nordist supremacist trolls. Incidentally, my “co-ethnics” score high on the test. pic.twitter.com/o6VWleKybQ Permalink 12:22 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM One person to a life partner:”I deal w/ mundane matters: where to live, what to eat, where to educate the children, etc. You focus on centrally important ones: geopolitical relations, tensions w/Russia, future of technology…” Let the State do the *important* things… Permalink 11:16 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@ddelruss People need to stop with IQ – NNT has already very publicly shown why it should not be used. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116342266195476481   Permalink 9:17 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 9) I am gently asking @zerohedge to retract that piece. Now. Permalink 7:17 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 6) Fail to get that growth is not driven by AVERAGE but by EXTREMES that depend on variance 7) Even if effect is as claimed, it is drowned into variance to make it usuable as immigration policy. 8) It is IMMORAL to emprison people in fake boxes!!! My PIECE https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 7:15 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2) ALL of these studies fail to account for cultural aspects of testing. 3) Main researcher @GarettJones doesn’t know what NOISE means. 4) Similar previous “research” did same for Irish, Southern Slavs, etc. who have now caught w/rest 5) A few data points can flip IQ/Performance! Permalink 7:12 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb WARNING: 1/n @ZeroHedge published a post on “country IQ” meant to justify that some races are “genetically inferior”, hence bound to remain poor because of genetic defects. 1) The article was written by a charlatan, James Thompson using shoddy statistics (see my Medium piece) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116074860449619968   Permalink 7:08 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@DineshDSouza Think of all the stuff we wouldn’t know without Assange. He was our media when we had no media to speak of. And we still don’t! Give the man a medal @wikileaks Permalink 6:28 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS ——————————————- Scholarships are available for women & Syrian students (& others from similar places) for the 11th program, RWRI-11, June 24-28 in NYC Please mail a (short) CV to the coordinator. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 5:47 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@derek_j_morris Confirmed it myself pic.twitter.com/R5lZKLzzcT Permalink 5:42 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The interesting thing is that it took one single @Wolfram Mathematica command to prove *by theorem* that the 2000K article in @NautilusMag is fraudulent and the author an impostor. One single command. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115684446081040386   Permalink 5:29 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb N7na zghar, w b3yun l a3adé kbar Hinné khashab 7awr, n7na lalkhashab minshar W7yét Zamzam wTiiba w l nabé l mkhtar Ma bnebné l deir illa min 7ajar 3akkar! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116093721597050880   Permalink 4:01 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Today, they made Jullian Assange a martyr. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Study something old but not visibly useful (classics), something modern and useful (accounting, coding), never something new and not visibly useful. Permalink 8:25 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@42cohen @nntaleb Exactly. I’ve repeatedly tutored students who were struggling and, simply by updating their “software” and creating real-world motivation, achieved psychometrically implausible results. Huge variance above 100 IQ renders it useless + dangerous. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PwTMeShlfU”>  pic.twitter.com/PwTMeShlfU Permalink 7:11 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The problem with the IQ-race quacks like @StefanMolyneux is that their talking points are designed to deal w/humanities schoolteachers. So a quack with the intellect of a guacamole dip like Molyneux who can’t tell a correlation from a fountain pen is a spokesman for “science”. pic.twitter.com/ZT5NIzRnkZ Permalink 4:09 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Mediterranean cultures actually have tall shaming. “homo lungus raro sapiens”, “tawil habil”, “Troppo lungo non fu mai buono”, “Uomo lungo, testa corta” etc. See Reich (2018) @Steve_Sailer The closer to old settled societies, the more tall shaming. Reverse in roaming hunters https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1116090455706333184   Permalink 2:40 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The beauty of physics is that it can rigorously predict things nobody has seen before, before the emergence of any empirical evidence. Compare to fraudulent fields like psychology that overfit from naive “empirical evidence” to predict nothing. https://twitter.com/NSF/status/1115964620186030080   Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bil Aramé kif ולי עמ נגאררב נכתב בלחרפ לאראמאי שו ביתלע מננא לשעלאי? Permalink 12:53 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Jarrabét éktob Llébnéné bl 3arabé. Ma 3am tmshé! Bl Latiné a7san bktir. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116061453235228673   Permalink 12:43 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb هاللء ازا كتبنا بلحرف هيدا بيمشي امما ما بيمشي؟ كيف بنكتوب لé؟ ولo/ou? Permalink 12:32 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Finally!!! https://twitter.com/eastmedmonitor/status/1116031424967204865   Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@DrCirillo A little preview of the forthcoming paper on “violence” with @nntaleb. pic.twitter.com/5dGLRHAPiN Permalink 10:41 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Excited to get the book of @NAChristakis as I am trying to go deeper into the notion of fractal (multiscale) localism & see what’s wrong w/my thesis: It isn’t individuals vs societies but fractal gradations, each w/specific dynamics, (contra the selfish gene philosophastering) pic.twitter.com/gbTxHrOKpu Permalink 7:27 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2019 Things to do list! https://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/1115968097121259521   Permalink 6:57 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer https://www.academia.edu/38762815/Medicine_and_Risk_Transfer?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 5:28 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “When you say something you think are just saying something, but you are largely communicating why you had to say it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:50 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@LieraMarco L’asimmetria nel trasferimento di rischi nella medicina. “Mi stai prescrivendo le statine perché mi fa bene o perché vuoi evitare che i miei eredi ti facciano causa?” E altri esempi. Problema molto americano e (ancora) poco italiano. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115282291704594432   Permalink 4:48 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/eD1X3qQMU6 Permalink 4:37 PM – 9 Apr 2019

@normonics Both globalism AND nationalism are monolithic *absorbing* identities, smoothing over and homogenizing where there ought to be rich variety https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 4:12 PM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Dear @NautilusMag you are in severe violation of journalistic ethics (and competence) in the piece “Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math” . You should check with a non-phantom professional before publishing something as elementarily erroneous. pic.twitter.com/oQej2yIG4D Permalink 11:34 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Dear @NautilusMag you are in severe violation of journalistic ethics (and competence) in the piece “Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math” . You should check with a non-phantom professional before publishing something as elementarily erroneous. pic.twitter.com/oQej2yIG4D Permalink 11:34 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@RandPaul A balanced federal budget isn’t a pie-in-the-sky dream or empty rhetoric. Once again, I am introducing a concrete plan that is achievable. Learn more here: https://www.paul.senate.gov/news/dr-rand%C2%A0paul-introduces-%E2%80%98pennies-plan%E2%80%99-balanced-budget   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JiWyxb558b”>  pic.twitter.com/JiWyxb558b Permalink 7:50 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@MilenaRodban My fellow Americans, the tax preparation industry and its powerful lobby are abominations that continue to wield undue influence over our lives. We must unite against it. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/04/congress-is-about-to-ban-the-government-from-offering-free-online-tax-filing/   Permalink 6:59 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@KendraSirak I’m getting excited for our session #AncientDNAinServiceofArchaeology to be held at #SAA2019. Looking forward to seeing many of our colleagues from both archaeology and genetics on Friday (4/12) from 1-5pm in 110 Galisteo (session 253) @JakobSedig pic.twitter.com/vQdbVgTj4U Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@thackerpd Province gave $720K to fired chief medical officer Eilish Cleary https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/eilish-cleary-health-settlement-1.4191543   Radio-Canada took Health Department to court to make severance information public “When fired, Cleary was studying #glyphosate, a controversial herbicide used extensively in New Brunswick” Permalink 6:12 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@Monsantobuster Taleb’s is a peer-reviewed published paper. If it was “wrong”, why didn’t pseudomathematician Clayton (who has NO publications) write to journal? It is shameful that academics spread this smear campaign by Nate Silver ag. Taleb Paper here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf   @nntaleb Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@ektrit I owe it to Taleb @nntaleb to understand that ethno-orthodoxy is basically Single God Paganism, you know, Christ helps only my people, not yours. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1115583251458985984   Permalink 4:57 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Paganism is decentralized theology.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:52 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The asymmetry comes from the fact that someone very very incompetent will be incompetent at everything. Someone competent at something may be domain specific. That raises correlation IQ-performance between .12 and .4 Permalink 6:48 PM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Did you read my paper, Mr Caroll to decide whether he knows anything about it? Permalink 11:23 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Tony, a year later. (Fellow trader Anthony Glickman, aka rabbi Ozer Glickman). “Life is long gamma”, he said. https://twitter.com/markric41763223/status/1115302776307896321   Permalink 10:41 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@spyrosmakrid Nassim’s originality and insights always surprises me even when he makes a simple comment for a medical paper. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115282291704594432   Permalink 10:02 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risks, a comment invited by @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/VJRvfup5aS Permalink 8:56 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Visibly, people are now getting my point. https://twitter.com/crimsonceo/status/1115238408690053122   Permalink 7:22 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Humanities degrees are very valuable (w/o ideological professors), provided it is complemented with real world apprenticeships (accounting, etc.) . It is degrees in psychology and social “science” full of theories that are not just worthless but work in reverse. https://twitter.com/greekhistorypod/status/1114966071746994178   Permalink 5:41 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb IQ not even useful for clinical cases:∃ targeted tsts. A Serbian doctor who works w/dementia/Alzheimer reached out to say my IQ post was circulating in his circles (& psychologists hate it): Doctors use dementia-specific cues; nothing to do with IQ. https://twitter.com/KourdaN/status/1115209819449974784   Permalink 4:13 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb More general case, the proportion pic.twitter.com/K1rT6KBmpy Permalink 4:08 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The point of adding dead people to your sample is to show the effect of the asymmetry: 1) it you hit someone on the head w/a hammer, he will be bad at everything (hence correlation), 2) there is no reverse equivalent. So IQ effects come from borderline clinical people. GAbish? Permalink 3:04 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@MacDBollinger Mr Taleb @nntaleb I must recommend you and your followers to watch Youtubechannel Swedish Investors excellent graphic summary of your books. Fantastik work! @InvestorSwedish https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEesADB0Jk0&list=PLI84Sf0aDgaw-Wy93jPAw4gcNxzNwpP9s&index=3   Permalink 2:31 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cleaned up on the plane home between twitter arguments. pic.twitter.com/ROQpNofqyU Permalink 4:30 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Some analytics on the ride home from #LibertyCon19: IQ #RacePeddlersIgnorantofProbabilitySuchAsTheQuackPeterson don’t get the effect of the equivalent of adding dead people to your sample. pic.twitter.com/vWIq5rCPQn Permalink 3:38 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ If you include 20% dead people in IQ tests, what will the minimum correlation IQ/performance be if the rest is random? #nonlinearity Permalink 12:45 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Delta’s olive oil is olive oil. Air France’s is 65% seed oil. When you hire “managers” w/o the filtering of SITG, they cut corners (Boeing, Air France, paper quality for publishers) and save pennies. But the manager improved “profitability”. Like short tail options for a tick. pic.twitter.com/zPtnR1gSJD Permalink 12:25 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 2/2 This passage, from Taleb’s The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tales especially comes to mind. I think 10 years ago I would have read and just moved on, now I’m finally starting to better understand the way of thinking this passage describes pic.twitter.com/BMI1N3ROmG Permalink 8:56 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 1/2. I’m rereading When Genius Failed – probably for the 30th time – because I like to understand decision making under stress. As I read it this time I have a better understanding of how much I’ve learned from @nntaleb in the last decade pic.twitter.com/uAsNhRpxt3 Permalink 8:54 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is exactly what I presented at #LibertyCon19: Liberty applies to all scales. No entity (s.a. what this idiot is advocating) should ever impose a national identity on your group, regardless of whether you’re wrong abt your own history (& we’re not). https://twitter.com/7ossain1/status/1114814847672377351   Permalink 7:57 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Indeed modernity is stripping some people of their dignity. https://twitter.com/pravind_paul/status/1114771835508277250   Permalink 12:37 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Indeed, Steve Stuart-Williams is a charlatan. He knows it because he keeps posting unrigorous cherrypicked IQ propaganda. These techniques are NOT predictive. pic.twitter.com/7j70nPUiOQ Permalink 3:39 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@NachoOliveras Indeed. The presenter mentioned round-up (gliphosate) and GMOs as an example of anti-science scaremongers in his punchline. Just remember @nntaleb heuristic for any shill conflating the two on a public platform, works as magic! https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1114170782979174401?s=19   Permalink 1:24 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@vacimovic Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb & Branko Milanovic @BrankoMilan – lecture and conversation in Belgrade. #LibertyCon19 pic.twitter.com/CmHUR0KbAe Permalink 12:24 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@pietercleppe .@nntaleb at #LibertyCon19 Belgrade: In its well-known cartoon, The @NewYorker conflates economists and bureaucrats with real experts, pilots, who have “skin in the game” pic.twitter.com/dMAbl23rWK Permalink 8:26 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@d_pavlovic Belgrade: @nntaleb and @BrankoMilan discuss risk, skin in the game, and income inequality. pic.twitter.com/cBhQlfI04q Permalink 8:24 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb My cousin @GeorgeJNasr started a #Flaneuring hashtag. It should have strict rules: NOTHING TOURISTIC. A flaneur is the reverse tourist. See touristification in #Antifragile. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114298575394103296   Permalink 6:29 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Debating @BrankoMilan in about 1 ½ hours https://twitter.com/petitemilica/status/1113809022447247360   Permalink 5:36 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Tail Option Pricing Under Fat Tails — A deceivingly simple but yuuuuugely robust model. Where we show that the methods used to claim that “tail options are expensive” are highly unrigorous. pic.twitter.com/QMn3qdc7Tv Permalink 5:33 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Exactly. I have been debating Branko who holds DIAMETRICALLY opposed opinions because he is a scholar. Probability is technical and Silver is not a scholar. One does not debate BS vendors. Permalink 5:21 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Belgrade is full of charm & a great flaneuring city. Perfect size (`1m), some parts are renovated, others look like they have been forgotten by history, which makes them mysterious, real, and at times, gripping. Food is ⅓ Ottoman, People look 3/8 Ottoman Marvelous pic.twitter.com/xzI3BXVpSx Permalink 3:47 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Thread by Dhruv who is the other researcher who got the same result I did. Unlike Bullshit Nate, he doesn’t have 3 mil twitter followers. Jut ~ 50. His paper is on the thread. He is more polite than me with Bullshit Nate, but same result. @EconTalker https://twitter.com/DhruvMadeka/status/1114252281636098049   Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb @BrankoMilan’s school windows have mesh and lattices. Permalink 2:53 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Branko’s elementary school in the background. I observed that it looked like a jail. He wasn’t thrilled with my comment. pic.twitter.com/CYxRgWUWo5 Permalink 10:33 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb ما جادلت عالمًا إلا غلبته, وما جادلت جاهلًا إلا غلبني Permalink 8:19 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@lkcashin Watching Bayer stock tumble is a thing of beauty. Monsanto is a cancer upon the earth. Biodiversity suffers in every region Monsanto stretches its dirty tentacles and GMF’s are an environmental time-bomb in the making. @nntaleb #fuckmonsanto #goorganic #Cancer #gm Permalink 7:50 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bullshit Nate, you can fool your audience, not professionals. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@spyrosmakrid The M4-Competition using 100,000 series, comparing 61 F/cing methods was followed by the M4 F/cing Conference in NYC where its findings were presented Now a special issue of IJF with 33 papers on all aspects of M4 from top academics and practitioners from big tech firms @fotpetr pic.twitter.com/QcihLtbaq3 Permalink 6:36 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb J2b haplogroup epicenter is Serbia. pic.twitter.com/BeADCT4mN2 Permalink 6:34 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb How Silver thinks he can bullshit us. pic.twitter.com/DJcAj9vKRL Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Ase, I have attended 4 RWRI and discovered that most of the people that go understand AF “up to a point”… And get lost in theory. Practical AF needs to be a topic… obviously associated with complexity and risk. other topics: AI, entrepreneurship; localism, etc. Permalink 5:35 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Bureaucracy is a construction designed to maximize the distance between a decision-maker and the risks of the decision.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Mandelbrot #fractals #chaos pic.twitter.com/nSLnoWesJn Permalink 11:03 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 3 The “law of large numbers” almost never works for socioeconomic variables. See Chapters 6-8. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 8:58 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@GMWatch New Brunswick’s chief medical officer was working on a study on #glyphosate when she was suddenly put on leave and then fired. Dr. Cleary had already said that she and her staff concurred with the IARC finding that glyphosate was a probable carcinogen https://www.gmwatch.org/en/news/archive/2015/16587-dr-eilish-cleary-is-fired-while-studying-glyphosate   https://twitter.com/GMWatch/status/1113691587232579586   Permalink 7:46 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Adriatic squid ink (risotto) pic.twitter.com/ynX3ltI0Lp Permalink 6:37 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb My lectshur will be on localism and convexity. My debate with Branko is on ergodic vs static equality. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 3:35 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb In Belgrade for flaneuring with my former ex-Ottoman (& ex-Byzantine) compatriots @BrankoMilan and @PredragBrajovic, and to debate Branko at #LibertyCon19 Permalink 3:31 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@NeilNRockville I just got through that section of Antifragile, and it blew my mind that he predicted it so closely, then I looked back at it in retrospect and it was clear why it was so predictable… Permalink 5:45 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM: Why tribal links are important for survival & fail w/abstract universalism: you’d rather love your child w/intensity 1 & save her from drowning > love 1000 strangers each w/intensity .001 ALL Nonlinearities lead to convex effects #antifragility https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 4:58 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 2 Semitic & Indo European languages appear to BOTH emerge from the same area in the Caucasus-Zagros-Anatolia, owing to proximity of agricultural vocabulary & similar original pop. genetics. Current linguistic categories are unrigorous. @Safaitic Permalink 3:21 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 1 That correlation is a measure of relationship betw 2 variables. It is very rarely so. Few understand how correlation requires 1) no subsampling, 2) strict linearity… and its interpretation is nonlinear: 90% correlation >>> 80%. pic.twitter.com/9fCv0f6YXJ Permalink 3:17 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@kiwiandroiddev This article calls to mind @nntaleb’s Antifragile: “Redundancy is ambiguous because it seems like a waste if nothing unusual happens. Except that something unusual happens – usually.” https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/a-lack-of-redundancies-on-737-max-system-has-baffled-even-those-who-worked-on-the-jet/   Permalink 12:44 AM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Damn good. pic.twitter.com/QD0rF32l7z Permalink 11:03 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@holland_tom Huge thanks to @nntaleb for his kind words… #Dominion https://twitter.com/LaraHeimert/status/1113104190014984194   Permalink 9:11 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And, BTW, the only enterprise that did fail more than “secular Arabism ” under a centralized state over the past century is perhaps the attempt to make a collection of pigs sing the Latin version of Te Deum in a syncronized way in a Gothic Cathedral. But not sure. Permalink 4:19 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb OVERT CLUELESSNESS These croissants are bought for ~$.40 to $.80. The markup comes from the monopoly given to the concession. @AOC is the logical empiricist’s nightmare. https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1112739837822582784   Permalink 3:27 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb High time to make my decision public. https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1112715864850128898   Permalink 8:43 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb There is no depth in Peterson. A modicum of insight wrapped in marketing BS, unrigorous psycholophastering (IQ, Big 5, 5 humors) masquerading as scholarship. In short, a quack. https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1112741408979353601   Permalink 8:42 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Booked a table! https://twitter.com/Toni_Bader93/status/1109188645955792897   Permalink 8:01 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb These dumb fucks at @metmuseum were trying to illustrate their theories of “Middle East identity” showing a Hellenistic sarcophagus from Sidon with… Greek inscriptions on it. Permalink 5:42 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2/ Since ~1100 BC Phoenicians (then “Lebanese”) have been the MOST MEDITERRANEAN of pples: look at food/behavior/looks. But since 1860 some low-Intellect Westerners (Arabists & founders of AUB, etc.) have decided de-Mediterraneanize (initially de-Ottomanize) to satisfy “identity” Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@trishankkarthik Everyone should drop what they’re doing, and read this paper right now Sometimes doctors have independently discovered special applications of this idea (e.g., ventilation machine), but it surprises me that they haven’t tried applying the same idea more generally (e.g., cancer) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1112694075084472320   Permalink 5:36 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/tQimRV7n5M Permalink 5:32 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 1 /2 That is the idea of statistical distribution of harm #Antifragility /second order effects in Medicine. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1112528982807904256   Permalink 5:31 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb IDENTITY MONGERS “Art and Identity in the Ancient Middle East” at @metmuseum: Edward Said-style identity mongers proceed to destroy the notion of cosmopolitan localism/Mediterraneanism of the Phoenicians. It shows the horrors of non-localist Nationalism. 1/n pic.twitter.com/AT4U1TW0zK Permalink 5:15 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@VergilDen On this April 1st morning I’m reminded of that time years ago when @nntaleb & I were in Italy and we deadlifted, rented a Black Swan Lambo & tore up Rome. Then we drove up the coast to meet Umberto Eco at his Villa. We perused his antilibrary & ate squid ink pasta. Good times. pic.twitter.com/SRwykqA3Fb Permalink 2:06 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@Gore_Burnelli One of the habits I’ve acquired from reading @nntaleb’s books is to always be skeptical whenever an academic declares a working system to be “backwards”, “medieval”. See for example Robert Sapolsky’s take on the American criminal justice system @ 23:18 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61tChpN3lhY#t=23m18   Permalink 5:07 AM – 31 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “The virtuous worry about their integrity, lesser humans (say, academics) about their reputation.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:23 AM – 31 Mar 2019

@nntaleb To become a philosopher king, start with being a king, not being a philosopher. Permalink 12:39 PM – 30 Mar 2019

Keynes, AOC, Bezos, Saudi Barbaria, Nat. Enquirer, Ghosn, IQ, alarm clocks, tawking, Peterson-Golden Rice, Lebanon, Nationalism, Pinker, Kelton,

@LaikiEksixroni1 What about her?!: https://youtu.be/9uj1mD0w7Ww   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Imbecilic Keynesianisticists find *ad hoc* arguments to argue deficits don’t cause inflation. The focus is on “foreign debt”. There are tons of counteramples, including close to me the Lebanese devaluation (rate frm 3/$ -> 1500) that ruined my grandfather https://twitter.com/msilva12000/status/1094644393854844929   Permalink 9:15 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Industrious BS producing psychologists have been using correlation/regression for 100 years like parrots without trying to figure out what it means intuitively. They can’t even define it. Correlation (unlike mut information) is randomly subadditive or superadditive! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090626453018955776   Permalink 8:19 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@NeutralTesla And Khashoggi died as the result of a fistfight. Saudi Arabia says has ‘nothing to do’ with Bezos-AMI dispute https://reut.rs/2GjiNnI   @nntaleb Permalink 8:16 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Announcement: Deborah Mayo @learnfromerror has a seminar on the philosophy of statistics. She also has a new book on the subject. Comments to come. pic.twitter.com/AXmhra36mu Permalink 8:12 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb From POPPER to FAT TONY *BS detection*, *via negativa*, *not being a sucker*, & asymmetric epistemology are rarely accepted as modi operandi across disciplines. BS detection is the engine of 1) epistemology/science for Popper 2) theology for Orthodoxy 3) business for Fat Tony https://twitter.com/brentdsummers/status/1094561610964684801   Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb …and risk. Please do not give me Keynes as counterexample as he proved to be clueless about risk, but wasn’t as intellectually defective as today’s Keynesians. Permalink 4:29 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Weimar Republic Zimbabwe, Brasil, Venezuela, Argentina Keynesian Economics is proving to be the refuge of people devoid of 1) common sense, 2) business acumen, 3) scientific rigor 4) elementary intellectual abilities, 4) historical & other erudition, 5) curiosity … https://twitter.com/StephanieKelton/status/1093575469440618496   Permalink 4:01 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Weimar Republic Zimbabwe, Brasil, Venezuela, Argentina Keynesian Economics is proving to be the refuge of people devoid of 1) common sense, 2) business acumen, 3) scientific rigor 4) elementary intellectual abilities, 4) historical & other erudition, 5) curiosity … https://twitter.com/StephanieKelton/status/1093575469440618496   Permalink 4:01 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reason social science calls itself a “science” is because of statistics. And their statistics are practically BS everywhere. I mean, really, everywhere. https://twitter.com/BeagleOnALeash/status/1094345432875089922   Permalink 1:58 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@keithbensons @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HPpx2IWVb8 Permalink 1:02 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Unpublished pictures are worth a lot more than published ones. #NationalEnquirer #UmbertoEcosLibrary Permalink 12:54 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR The phenomenon known as “regression to the mean” is largely a social science illusion. It requires a stable & *known* mean, constant standard deviation, a thin-tailed distribution, & homogeneous cohorts. Permalink 11:52 AM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is easiest to do the most when you have nothing to do. Permalink 10:09 AM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The maximum success is reached when you are never busy. https://twitter.com/extrachelle/status/1093857798612545538   Permalink 6:14 PM – 8 Feb 2019

@yzilber Gawker were saints Vs Nat Etq. Nate Enq are mafia Gawker were just crude thugs misbehaving Permalink 2:52 PM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb What Occasio is saying on lobby funding is right, healthy, & perfectly compatible with libertarianism/localism. These distortions/hijacking of representation are the product of a centralized system. Let us make sure these ideas of sound governance are not marketed as “socialist”. https://twitter.com/JKCorden/status/1093634176845139968   Permalink 9:26 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@PaulSkallas I don’t think Dunning Krueger is real or Lindy https://twitter.com/ddelruss/status/1093909071336562688   Permalink 8:48 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The most unsettling part of the @JeffBezos story is the very high possibility that Saudi Arabia is blackmailing the current U.S. president. Even in the case of Bezos, blackmailing on behalf of a foreign government has some legal consequences. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1093845565333475329   Permalink 7:02 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man “You can’t eat Sharpe ratios.” @Bloomberg @ErikSchatzker https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1086321274522165248   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1093515067600056320   Permalink 6:59 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Charlatans and socialists offer positive, non via negativa “solutions” 2- I block idiots. Like immediately. Nothing personal. Permalink 6:24 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WARNING: Noah Smith @Noahpinion has a long history of commenting on papers & books he didn’t read. Yet how come such a fraud still exists? Only because he represents a certain socialist line? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   https://twitter.com/johnrobb/status/1093863981478019072   Permalink 5:49 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb MORAL OF THE STORY: – If Saudi Barbaria & the Nat. Enquirer can explicitly blackmail the richest person in the most powerful country, where does it leave the rest of us? – Remember we were saved from Gawker that was in the business of ruining the lives of college students. https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1093643321732464646   Permalink 4:14 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntalebbot “Regular minds find similarities in stories (and situations); finer minds detect differences.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@Safaitic I will be giving a lecture at ISAW ( http://isaw.nyu.edu/  ) on March 29-30 at a workshop on the Nessana Papyri. I imagine it will be open to the public so please join us and hear about the trilingual language situation of the town in the 6th c. CE. Permalink 12:10 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- (Ghosn) I know numerous billionaires; I’ve met many CEOs. Billionaires tend to live as if they were CEOs; CEOs tend to live as if they were billionaires. Permalink 12:04 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Ghosn fell prey to the “show me the man, I will find you a crime”. Someone with enemies should be obsessive about creating a web a “plausible deniability” ahead of time. You need to stay at least one step ahead of your enemies, in France two steps, and in Japan, three. Permalink 9:38 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@NonMeek A good rule of thumb is to focus on what people do instead of what they say. #NOskininthegame = #BS pic.twitter.com/Qp3L9kb8WI Permalink 7:48 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM CARLOS GHOSN? (Thread) Ghosn is a very competent man but 1- One cannot behave like Henry Ford or Louis XIV if one is getting a salary/under corporate bondage. Worse: one is NEVER free when getting a salary. Permalink 7:07 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Universa’s Spitznagel on Fed Policy, Hedge Funds and Insuring Market Risk https://youtu.be/xiBjBkXBHLw   via @YouTube Permalink 6:21 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-06/nietsche-optimizing-risk-and-embracing-disasters   #blackswanman #theblackswanman @zerohedge #Nietzsche #AmorFati ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Kuy83MZ79J”>  pic.twitter.com/Kuy83MZ79J Permalink 6:17 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The IQ thingy by psychologists/BS vendors is drawing me back to the problem of non-elipticality of distributions. Correlation is much harder to work with than you think. (from my next book) pic.twitter.com/k2R1Z86dHd Permalink 1:54 PM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Never take any positive advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. (corrected to fix the meta-problem). Permalink 1:26 PM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Finally figured out. “IQ” doesn’t test for intelligence; rather how likely a person is likely to become a state-solution loving socialist. Permalink 11:01 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@normonics genetics is good for sorting out history, as @nntaleb is doing, but is terrible for making predictions or describing how macroscopic behaviors and properties unfold from genetics, given our current knowledge and abilities. Permalink 8:44 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@thackerpd Nina Federoff is the former President of AAAS. She is now an advisor to a law firm that lobbies for the agrochemical industry and a critic of #GMO reporting “Flacking for GMOs: How the Biotech Industry Cultivates Positive Media—and Discourages Criticism” https://progressive.org/magazine/how-the-biotech-industry-cultivates-positive-media/   Permalink 7:57 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Those who aren’t in it for the money won’t tell you that they aren’t in it for the money. Permalink 7:48 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- The only thing a business school professor can teach you is how to become a business school professor. Permalink 7:15 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Never take any financial advice from someone who has to work for a living. Permalink 7:03 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Never take any advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. Permalink 7:02 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 6:22 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2nd Lecture at Tandon on probability, showed how under some conditions (conservation) Max Entropy leads to the Gaussian. Adding the derivations to my book. pic.twitter.com/I6y85F8Bsi Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Hayda tzwir térikhé. L-lbnénéné (w l mashr2é/néoKn3ané) lghétna l2mm. Permalink 4:55 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb An indicator of freedom and bondage: how often did you have to use an alarm clock this month? Permalink 4:52 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@LindyEffect Erasmus pic.twitter.com/x98fdqwYyZ Permalink 6:41 PM – 5 Feb 2019

@sentantiq Tonight Dani Bostick will be live tweeting the State of the Union Address in Latin. Look out for @danibostick and the hashtag #LatinSOTU https://sententiaeantiquae.com/2019/02/05/the-state-of-our-union-in-latin/   Permalink 8:58 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@normonics Quick GMO complexity lesson: A central challenge in complexity studies is understanding how microscopic properties and behaviors flow upwards in scale and produce macroscopic behaviors It turns out this is a VERY hard problem Permalink 8:47 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Removed the Abstract (it was a teaser before submission to a journal)… Will repost in a few. Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb My contribution to the problem is here https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1085879808624607232   Permalink 5:22 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@MaxAbrahms New report adds even more evidence that American weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE have gone to Al Qaeda and its friends in Yemen. https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/02/middleeast/yemen-lost-us-arms/   Permalink 3:13 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is dishonest to claim that the rich of yesterday are the same as those of today. Ergodicity https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 8:37 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@EconTalker This is dishonest. Not the same people in those groups every year. Your picture and your tweet make it seem otherwise. It’s not a zero-sum game and every serious economist knows it. You should too. https://medium.com/@russroberts/do-the-rich-capture-all-the-gains-from-economic-growth-c96d93101f9c   https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1092397923009204224   Permalink 8:19 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: RATIONALITY John 1،1:Ἐν ἀρχῇ ἦν ὁ λόγος, mistransl. “in the beginning was the verb” shd بع “First, there is reasoning”. The Peshita, uses “Béréshit (for beginning, shd be “principally”) MLL for verb =”abilitlity to speak” λόγος= منطق= מלל NOT كلمة #Lindy pic.twitter.com/8Tc9CLXHWO Permalink 6:12 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@zerohedge The term “neoliberal warmongers” is thus born https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1092245449304612869   Permalink 6:53 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WHAT I LEARNED IN 2019 I thought that correlation was a bad measure because super-additive [relu/sigmoids] rho[a+b]>rho[a]+rho[b]. Turns out it is also sub-additive [exponential]. In other words, there are very very very narrow conditions where one can safely use correlation. Permalink 6:32 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb And of course Patrick Moore whose dangerous, dishonest (& exploitative) arguments psychologist @jordanbPeterson was diffusing is a well identified shill for glyphosate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovKw6YjqSfM   Permalink 3:31 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The point is not if someone is right or wrong. It is if someone is a bullshitter, tawking about stuff he doesn’t know nothing about or giving you verbalistic arguments that sound good. He will be a bullshitter EVEN if he later turns out to be right. https://twitter.com/JimDMiller/status/1092138559283384320   Permalink 11:56 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb When you are, say, a physicist, you don’t argue abt quantum mechanics w/an astrologer for the sake of “listening to all sides”. I just block people (mostly verbalistic psychologists) w/whom I DO NOT want to have an exchange because you DO NOT learn/advance from bullshit. Gabish? Permalink 11:05 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Actually it is not just virtue signaling but Peterson’s DISGUSTING use of appeal to pity or some FAKE humanitarianism “because blindness” to justify selling speculative options in place of less lucrative more robust ones. Similar to pedophrasty. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 10:50 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb OUR PRECAUTIONARY PPLE WITH RESPECT TO GMOs http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 10:09 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@olivierglinec Avez vous lu cela: https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/nicolas-hulot-monsanto-a-demande-a-une-officine-belge-de-soccuper-de-ma-reputation-3850433   Permalink 10:02 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb There are antecedents https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1092119956597235717   Permalink 9:58 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Where I block @JordanbPeterson for violation of intellectual integrity/virtue signaling. pic.twitter.com/8HDRPXmtdZ Permalink 9:48 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb These tweets explain that if you have a nonlinear function, say IQ vs performance, then “correlation” is tooooootally meaningless mathematically, & multidimensional “factors” are even worse. This is of some relevance for machine learning with the ReLu function. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1091820909281923073   Permalink 8:18 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb ANSWER: found a counterexample f(x)=Exp[x]. Overall correlation is always lower (up to ~40%) than that of any subsample! MORAL: Use psychometrics/psychology books for winter fuel as many citizens have difficulties with their heating bills. pic.twitter.com/FctDnzdLT1 Permalink 6:50 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/xAcAhnGg8R Permalink 2:11 PM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb SPECULATIVE INEQUALITY DU JOUR pic.twitter.com/vaCY0gAlnV Permalink 2:09 PM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Palestinians are dominated by J1 pic.twitter.com/AlxfmkVmPQ Permalink 10:53 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb When people makes public apologies and acts of contrition, they are mostly sorry that they were caught. Permalink 6:31 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@Monsantobuster Falkenstein spent 21 years smearing Taleb with lies and strawman. Is he so stupid as not to realize he can get caught? http://fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Gxv6JJdH34″>  pic.twitter.com/Gxv6JJdH34 Permalink 5:02 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Lamma tfshal ma7ada byid3amak mitl ahl blédak w lamma tnja7 ma7ada byi7sadak w bkhazwék fik mitl ibn baladak Permalink 7:04 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@SituationO Lebanon’s new government has 4 female ministers: – @rayaelhassan ,(Interior), Future Movement – @violetteksafadi ,(Woman affairs), Future Movement – @may_chidiac ,(Administrative reform), Lebanese Forces – @NadaBoustani ,(Energy), Free Patriotic Movement Congrats! pic.twitter.com/3PahUeWcX8 Permalink 2:10 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb What is working in Lebanon is that it doesn’t have two factions, but at least three. Permalink 1:29 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@yaneerbaryam Switzerland is a country of peace, stability & prosperity. Our analysis shows that peace doesn’t depend on integrated coexistence, but rather on well-defined topographical & political boundaries separating groups @arutherfordium @GardMurray @future_andi https://necsi-global.org/good-fences-the-importance-of-setting-boundaries-for-peaceful-coexistence/?rq=switzerland   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5ZTpEvFYlM”>  pic.twitter.com/5ZTpEvFYlM Permalink 12:31 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 4 women in Lebanese government. The rest is details. https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1091414421732249601   Permalink 12:09 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Fractal Localism pic.twitter.com/kY2zjrzDLD Permalink 12:02 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb BARBARIAN SUPREMACISM From now on, you can call “White” supremacists BARBARIAN SUPREMACISTS Northrn Europe does not have a monopoly on Caucasian. (Note I permanently blocked @RazibKhan as he could not substantiate what “flaws” he claimed in our GMO risk paper, hence his watch) pic.twitter.com/zdX8rsH5U3 Permalink 9:15 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb If my enemies knew me better they’d hate me even more. #BedofProcrustes https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1091288735721967616   Permalink 8:02 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb You can easily have a nation-state with 2, even 4 languages (Belgium, Switzerland), but you can’t easily have a nation-state with 2 religions. #Localism Permalink 8:01 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@booksoftitans The Bed of Procrustes by @nntaleb just $2.99 on @AmazonKindle and @AppleBooks today – https://www.amazon.com/Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical-Aphorisms-ebook/dp/B004C43F9S   – https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/the-bed-of-procrustes/id420518445   Permalink 7:28 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- In other words, there exist a system where you can be a Maronite/Shiite/Armenian nationalist without imposing your preferences on others, and without others imposing their preferences on you. It’s localism. Permalink 6:14 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It was PRECISELY the removal of multiculturalism by Arabists that fucked it up. Permalink 6:06 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Nationalism is an idea that came about in the 19th C., messed up Greece/Turkey, destroyed Alexandria, Saloniki, Aleppo, Smyrna, Constantinople. French nationalism is absurd:Provencal localism is not. Now people are getting Fractal localism and City-states as a natural order. Permalink 6:05 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb FRACTAL LOCALISM/LEBANON Maronites are obsessed w/Lebanese Nationalism=Maronite homeland; don’t consider us the Rhum (Greek Orthodox) minority (~5%) as part of their ethnos: we are too Mediterraneanists/Universalists w/foreign allegiances. Hence a Swiss-style bottom-up Localism. https://twitter.com/sarkis_charles/status/1091241380268130304   Permalink 5:55 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Closed for RWRI-10. We gave 20 full and partial scholarships in total for RWRI-10. Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@oliviergay Same with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. On his interrogation on hiding non-existing WMD: “Western governments and their intelligence agencies had failed to realize that Saddam was more fearful of attack by Iran than by the US.” https://twitter.com/RidT/status/1077944842896982016   Permalink 5:07 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom #9: https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1087681642599276545   Permalink 1:49 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom #1 https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1088339650333294594   Permalink 1:49 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@ole_b_peters Very nice. This precise mathematical error is all over economics. Do something invalid with a limit or an infinity and claim whatever you want. When you point out such an error, you’re told economic theories don’t have to be mathematically correct, they just have to sound smart. https://twitter.com/Undercoverhist/status/1075912850269487104   Permalink 1:11 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@PaulSkallas Imagine having this “genetic intelligence test” and not being rich https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1091038511233421313   Permalink 2:02 PM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT We have a 100% scholarship left for RWRI-10 for a woman, preferably Syrian or Venezuelan, or from a troubled part of the planet, preferably a doctoral student, preferably a nonpsychologist. NEED TO APPLY TODAY Feb 11-15, NY. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 11:37 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Actually, psychometric measures best the extreme unintelligence of psychometricians. https://twitter.com/ThomasGrava/status/1091055576237395970   Permalink 11:32 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@fpontaza Chef @ArielTrodArgent had us for dinner last night and honored his Lebanese ancestry with his Lindy recipe for keppe crudo. You rarely get to experience something so great from so far away in Guatemala. We raised our glasses for @nntaleb! pic.twitter.com/9CjgNQ4pMM Permalink 11:24 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@AdibChristian Looking into using #GoogleAutoMLTranslation to create a translation engine that can process Lebnééné/NeoKanaané. Thoughts? @BLebnene https://cloud.google.com/translate/   Permalink 10:44 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 5- Something about Persia that the Trump administration is clueless: Persia obsessed Greeks, Romans, Arabs, then Ottomans for the past 2400 years. Rome was broke frm the 700 y Persian wars. Unconquered in spite of short lived fake successes: Alexander, Herakles, Arabs, etc.. Permalink 8:39 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090986235223568384   Permalink 8:08 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4- The Ottomans also used the Byzantine administration. They even brought the Levant back into “Rome”. They also protected Orthodoxy from Catholic “Europe”… for a while. Look at the map. https://twitter.com/hzkathulhu/status/1090988564886810625   Permalink 7:14 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Something @peterfrankopan got: Ottomans didn’t give a f*** abt “Rome” since Rome itself moved closer to the wealth, the silk road, & was now Constantinople. Before wealth from the Americas the West was an economic desert. Turks shared w/Romans & Byzantines the Persian obsession. Permalink 7:10 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The Turks’ anger at the Russians was that Ivan IV took the title of Tsar, “Ceasar” when the Ottomans believed that, after Mehmed, THEY were the official successors of Caesar. https://twitter.com/EALTurner/status/1090975867583557632   Permalink 6:43 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb People forget that Soliman’s predecessor 130 years before, Bayazid, proclaimed himself Sultan-r-Rum (Roman Sultan), about a century before the fall of Constantinople. Another issue about “East-West”: the Byzantine church, until the 1800s, felt “East”, operated ~1000y under Islam. https://twitter.com/RenderuntoG/status/1090810150883971073   Permalink 6:00 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Article by @xriskology seems to find it generalized… https://www.salon.com/2019/01/26/steven-pinkers-fake-enlightenment-his-book-is-full-of-misleading-claims-and-false-assertions/   Permalink 5:30 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Note that our bone w/Pinker @sapinker is that his citations don’t match his statistical claims. He started with a conclusion, then tried to find data to confirm it. Here his central claim is bunk. Calling me bellicose/arrogant isn’t a scientific answer. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=670117070070069017069127022113081120031047031042055074081065126024120067069003090124049107118055103025009099127064108125084119028035061021010087093100074084092109046023010095001099096093092082102029123024102008084001102122009080080028117086117113021&EXT=pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fOR0YEye25″>  pic.twitter.com/fOR0YEye25 Permalink 4:57 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Gaussian case: a beautiful sqrt pi function a la Sirling. pic.twitter.com/VMsG0qfoeg Permalink 1:39 PM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Exception: Mike B @MikeBloomberg… any other? Permalink 11:53 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A triangle inequality entailing partial correlation. pic.twitter.com/XlOivnHVbF Permalink 7:50 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/43G0ocDLcB Permalink 7:05 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A neat theorem about the asymmetry of correlation: if downside correlation is 100% and upside correlation is 0%, total correlation will show ~90%! Moral: 1) never use the word correlation under asymmetry 2) use psychometrics textbooks for winter fuel 3) close psych departments pic.twitter.com/sdOh3P5IRC Permalink 7:03 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@rationalwalk Nikki is now in the “private sector” where she will cash in on past favors, take down payments in future favors, and end up with a 8+ figure net worth from which to plot a return to “public service”. Rinse, repeat, path to riches and power. https://twitter.com/kaylatausche/status/1090613317306122240   Permalink 6:59 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In a long career, I’ve (almost) never seen anyone get rich while employed (via bonuses/stock options, as w/bankers, CEOs, & rich slaves), & subsequently also make money on their own, in self employment. If you can’t make it on your own, it’s #rentseeking. Permalink 4:50 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Never ever call me a polymath. I am a probabilist. Nothing else. That’s sufficient. Please. Permalink 5:16 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@TrevMalley Nassim has a knack for getting to the real meat of the argument. These people may as well claim the Japanese as fellow whites if they’re going to use the achievements of the Ancient Mediterranean world as an argument for their grandeur Permalink 5:10 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Real squid ink smudges. pic.twitter.com/PBa0xZCgwX Permalink 4:59 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In other words, better say: “you mean Barbarian supremacists?” rather than imitate some SJW harangue. Permalink 4:52 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The way to deal with racists is to NEVER use moral arguments (they are insensitive to them). Just prove to them that their “race”… was comparatively sub-par for a very, very, very long time. Just like the current condition of “inferior” races. That, they can’t handle. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1087763053515603968   Permalink 4:42 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@trishankkarthik Debate is for suckers Permalink 4:39 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Excited to find in my mailbox the book by @ErwanLeCorre from whom I’ve learned so much about natural fitness/#antifragility. pic.twitter.com/A57GM8yM9E Permalink 3:14 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb If assholes don’t find you arrogant, you are doing something wrong. Permalink 2:32 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@paulportesi Can somebody explain to me why the f*** should a utility company get bonuses? @nntaleb https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1090352637478912002   Permalink 1:04 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I am certain that over the past 5000 years, nobody has had to use an IQ test to choose between: surgeons, gardeners, physicists, hitmen, massage professionals, fortune tellers, spanish grammar specialists, or Swahili-to-Medieval Latin translators. https://twitter.com/fpingham/status/1090311581467058176   Permalink 10:35 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ WRAPUP These IQ psychologogs can’t answer my point abt elementary yet severe mathematical flaws w/the “IQ” measure. All I got is a downpour of BS from @charlesmurray, @primalpoly, @StuartJRitchie, @Ptetlock, the @Quillette boys “IQ”≠ Mental abilities https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=szXf0VLuQLg   Permalink 8:00 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@JoshHochschild “another—doubtless very different—Boethius” @Hannah_Cristine totally got my review of @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/m33N7XjZ3Z Permalink 6:28 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@epigraphed Two people can be using the same word, meaning different things, yet continue the conversation, which is fine for coffee, but not when making decisions, particularly policy decisions affecting others. @nntaleb https://link.medium.com/yTtEwBiiJT   Permalink 3:25 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@LePoint Laetitia Strauch-Bonart – La bataille du QI Au grand dam de nombre d’experts, l’essayiste Nassim Nicholas Taleb remet en question la fiabilité et la pertinence des tests de quotient intellectuel >> http://bit.ly/2RUE5xX   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G7rsl3iGmS”>  pic.twitter.com/G7rsl3iGmS Permalink 2:14 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@TheAnnaGat That is true. I showcase my communication and problem-solving skills by not having been blocked by @nntaleb (yet) even though I have responded to him. Permalink 12:53 PM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ is a scientific swindle –A brief explanation of the math https://youtu.be/szXf0VLuQLg   via @YouTube Permalink 7:50 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @Bloomberg #VolatilityMonster pic.twitter.com/zTJPea3WAi Permalink 6:05 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@ESFLiberty #LibertyCon19 is also featured on the newest edition of Journal des Libertés! Spot us on page 150! C’est très excité You can access the publication here http://bit.ly/2sQz9vl   Register now at http://LibertyCon.net  ! @SFL_France @lawrencewr @nntaleb @tomgpalmer ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G3MTig5886″>  pic.twitter.com/G3MTig5886 Permalink 6:02 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@seltzer_c “Je suis pour le principe de subsidiarité qui me semble le plus efficace politiquement et économiquement. Politiquement, je suis localiste. L’individu ne doit être géré que par des gens qui vivent avec lui.” ⁦@nntaleb, ITW par ⁦@EugenieBastie⁩ http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/2019/01/24/31003-20190124ARTFIG00096-nassim-taleb-la-modernite-hait-l-incertitude-elle-ne-voudrait-que-des-bons-eleves.php   Permalink 5:00 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- Another spuriousness in the neuroscience literature: Never trust any “evidence” from Neuroscience or psychobyllshutmetrics without redoing the math. We use as a standard Pinker’s deffender the charlatan @michaelshermer who pollutes intellectual life with pseudoempiricism. pic.twitter.com/CzLS41qVHa Permalink 4:39 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The answer and the Monte Carlo illustration shows how hard it is to explain that “randomness does not look random”. pic.twitter.com/ypPsnyJxNh Permalink 3:58 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ DU JOUR, around “Fooled by Randomness”. How to ferret out pseudo-empiricism (or where “empirical evidence is not empirical evidence”): What are the odds of getting a spurious “cancer cluster”? [FIRST CLASS TANDON TONIGHT] pic.twitter.com/pQnpeumSfz Permalink 3:34 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Ab alio expectes alteri quod feceris Permalink 7:24 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb GrecoLebanese proverb du jour: Lkalb mabi 3add khayyo (Caninas caninam non est -κυων κυνός ουχ απτεται) Permalink 7:06 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That psychobullshit: “psychometric intelligence” is not even intelligence, but some crappy number used 1) to employ psychologists, 2) put down some race. Permalink 6:18 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This is what nudgeboy Richard Thaler @R_thaler never understood. Evolution is NOT an incentive but a FILTER. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1089675741288112128   Permalink 4:08 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/1WqDtJV4BM Permalink 12:50 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@financequant Effective tax rates across time: https://taxfoundation.org/taxes-rich-1950-not-high/   I am posting this not because I necessarily agree with all of the conclusions. The facts are that the proportion of income paid by the rich hasn’t changed as much as a naïve view of the tax rates would indicate. Permalink 11:29 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists don’t get PCAs under nonlinearity: if the factors correlate with any mental difficulties, the g will give the illusion of robustness WITHOUT being predictive OTS. It is easy to prove the g is a scientific swindle. ( I actually did) https://twitter.com/cfchabris/status/1089365903693762566   Permalink 11:26 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Vatican II reminds me a performance of Trovatore I attended in Chicago years ago. The singing was in English “for clarity”. I walked out 2 minutes into the opera. Conversely, Imagine the Beatles translated (and sung) into Slovenian. Permalink 11:00 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@VergilDen Taleb once tweeted when asked “If you had one thing to tell a child, what would it be?”. He replied “Time is smarter than you.” I like that. Permalink 9:22 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is capitalism that pulled billions out of poverty. Not vapid virtue signaling. Permalink 8:51 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 8:43 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 8:43 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In Fooled by Randomness: Vatican II destroyed Catholicism by translating the sacred into ordinary language. Meanwhile Judaism & Islam never debased the texts away from Hebrew and Arabic, resp. The current Bishop of Rome @Pontifex is continuing the destruction started in 1962. pic.twitter.com/gyvBHfv3Hx Permalink 8:13 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I am so lucky 1) to be born in the Byzantine Orthodox Church, & 2) that we had a schism with the bishop of Rome in 1054. https://twitter.com/pontifex/status/1089327127277621248   Permalink 7:49 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb You can give a 99% probability that those who hate my style and find it arrogant are… psychologists or social scientists. https://twitter.com/andeanmckena/status/1089546744168415234   Permalink 7:38 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My black list doesn’t necessarily include people who have been to the Davos WEF. It includes those who have been to Davos more than once. Permalink 7:29 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The honest person isn’t the one who has never sinned. It’s the one who has never committed any sin more than once. Permalink 7:24 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@enzolamberti Reading the excellent @peterfrankopan #thesilkroads and the more I read, the more I see proofs of something @nntaleb pointed out to me: it’s wealth that creates education, not the other way round. Primum vivere… pic.twitter.com/WHc3QQA9SW Permalink 6:10 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Wittgenstein’s ruler: nerds use the ruler to measure the table; Fat Tonies (and real scientists) use the table to measure the ruler. https://twitter.com/profplum99/status/1089258974501756928   Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My takeaway: people with inferior intelligence should refrain from engaging in smear campaigns. But, again, one needs to be of inferior intelligence to get into smear campaigns. Permalink 6:07 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The Davos WEF tried & failed to smear me for calling them IAND (Int’l Association of Name Droppers): head of communication Adrian Monck @amonck kept claiming I don’t reference Popper in The Black Swan (Popper, referenced 53 times, has an entire chapter). https://twitter.com/GeorgeJNasr/status/962353415715246080   Permalink 5:59 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Kind of people that I block immediately as these type of fallacious questions destroy the debate. pic.twitter.com/o24gOqWRst Permalink 5:18 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@zinarosek As part of my legal work on the Genocide against Iraqi Christians, I have a list & files on neocon warcriminals who played key role in the Genocide. John Bolton & Elliott Abrams (laughing evilly in video) are both on the list. @POTUS’ admin has hired both. pic.twitter.com/9dAUHPgO1r Permalink 10:18 PM – 25 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NOTE TO THE ALT-RIGHT: I got plenty of ethnic hatred by quack-Molyneux/Charles Murray’s crowd. I am not complaining, but for Baal’s sake, 1) I am Greek Orthodox (not Muslim) and… 2) Lebanon has no desert. It’s on the Med. So please remember: Lebanon has no desert. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/0rqo9De7Aj Permalink 5:11 PM – 25 Jan 2019

@NonMeek ”…70% of wealthy families lose their wealth by the 2nd generation, and a whopping 90% by the third generation.” Shocking read for those who still believe there are safe asset classes. https://twitter.com/mebfaber/status/1088505078946787329   Permalink 12:14 AM – 25 Jan 2019

@Firsou Someone who takes no risks should not throw stones at people who have offloaded most of the initial risk to themselves. Entrepreneurs are heroes. Permalink 12:26 PM – 24 Jan 2019

@olivierglinec La bataille du QI dans le point aujourd’hui/IQ battle in the french paper Le Point pic.twitter.com/HuztqjXhIx Permalink 8:04 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@DrCirillo In studying war casualties and other historical data, you have to treat them as imprecise random observations. If you don’t, all your subsequent analyses will be flawed. cc @nntaleb Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb She is using Twitter and a computer to claim that those who invented them are rent seekers. And she, a parasite,lives from rent seeking, charities, and public funds. https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1087780034348306432   Permalink 3:17 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb She is using Twitter and a computer to claim that those who invented them are rent seekers. And she, a parasite,lives from rent seeking, charities, and public funds. https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1087780034348306432   Permalink 3:17 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@EugenieBastie Mon interview avec Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb ) iconoclaste et génial auteur du “Cygne noir” et d'”Antifragile” : «La modernité hait l’incertitude, elle ne voudrait que des bons élèves» http://premium.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/2019/01/24/31003-20190124ARTFIG00096-nassim-taleb-la-modernite-hait-l-incertitude-elle-ne-voudrait-que-des-bons-eleves.php   Permalink 3:16 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Some work on this is being done by complexity physicist @yaneerbaryam . Yaneer can you tweetstorm? https://twitter.com/otrasenda_ac/status/1088204786908852225   Permalink 3:13 PM – 23 Jan 2019

@ryanpflynn This is what happens when Nerdified Public-Health Bureacrats come up w/ a “solution” to a nerdified problem. Go play outside. @nntaleb @Mangan150 https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1088163109133578240   Permalink 12:07 PM – 23 Jan 2019

@fermatslibrary A visual proof why 1+3+5+…+(2n-1)=n² = Permalink 5:45 AM – 23 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Studies of the handwriting of Mozart, Einstein, or Fat Tony are nothing but fetichism & reliquiae worship passing for scholarship —residual paganistic practices in a pseudo-atheist society. And state funded, of course. https://twitter.com/britishlibrary/status/1088063054716252160   Permalink 5:35 AM – 23 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The problem is that Beirut is starting to have the Miami look. You can’t travel anymore. pic.twitter.com/f87oDVsbyO Permalink 10:23 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Appendix to new book on why Black Scholes doesn’t work under power laws pic.twitter.com/3ghxFlQo33 Permalink 10:01 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Gerrymandering based on later categories: There was Christendom, vs Land of Islam and we are using the most recent categorization. “Europe” has traditionally started with Christianity’s limit on the East & (North of the Med) Gabish? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1087770487462203393   Permalink 9:59 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Here https://twitter.com/rationalwalk/status/1087708976261808129   Permalink 9:48 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Stop the fake news + historical gerymandering promoted by quack-quack Molyneux & Charles Murray: Before 1600 Northern “Europe” contributed to ~ nothing. Nazi “Aryans” appropriated the growth of the Med/S. W. Eurasia by making (Ancient) Greeks members of the same “race”. Quacks. pic.twitter.com/MB96KybY9V Permalink 9:24 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@Scale_Trust — @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/FNfhf5391v Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@iosif_lazaridis Sad that people have to waste their time for this: “20 of 49 statements presented to me for review on January 2 were incorrect, and 27 of the 36 statements presented to me for review on January 5 were incorrect.” Five Corrections to The New York Times https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/five-corrections-new-york-times   Permalink 6:30 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It happened. 2009. https://twitter.com/rationalwalk/status/1087705510432964613   Permalink 5:44 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb And of course hear that the President of China is talking about Black Swan without having to show up to the Davos meeting of the IAND (International Association of Name Droppers) https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1087638941984006150   Permalink 5:23 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb More effective to research in cafés & let your ideas spread than schlepp across conferences collecting business cards. https://twitter.com/CoddingtonKipp/status/1087683082600083458   Permalink 5:05 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb More effective to research in cafés & let your ideas spread than schlepp across conferences collecting business cards. https://twitter.com/CoddingtonKipp/status/1087683082600083458   Permalink 5:05 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@imleslahdin – You know what one should call a test that encourages poor statisticd hygiene? a “statistics deficit test” (SD test) instead of an “intelligent quotient test” – @lpachter Very interesting read if you have been following the @nntaleb IQ threads. https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2018/06/04/low-iq-scores-predict-excellence-in-data-science/   Permalink 9:55 PM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Statistic for the Four Population Test https://www.academia.edu/38192150/Statistic_for_the_Four_Population_Test?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 11:50 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@pacha111 “During the collapse of the Sui Dynasty there was a bandit lord named Meng Haigong who had a special hatred for scholars and bureaucrats. Whenever he took a highborn captive he’d carefully *misquote* a Confucian classic in front of them. If they pointed out the error, they died” Permalink 8:27 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 2- Something unknown by *IQ idiots w/sinister theories* (s.a. @charlesmurray @primalpoly): NONLINEARITY. Variables that correlate only ½ the time show ρ >.855 (Gaussian case) but rises to ρ>.92 in absense of tapering of tail values. These are basic notions. Probability is hard. pic.twitter.com/8iQHo9cARm Permalink 5:28 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 1- SIMPLEST CASE: Correlation with a constant will show a positive correlation. But there is a loooooooot worse. pic.twitter.com/DFhzYsLqp3 Permalink 4:59 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (this time, difficult) There are many known examples of fake independence: random variables X & Y can be more dependent than shown in correlation. (x & Y=x^x for instance) Can you find instances of X & Y that more correlated than dependent? Permalink 4:20 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntalebbot “A half-man (or, rather, half-person) is not someone who does not have an opinion, just someone who does not take risks for it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 20 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Insight by @ArthurB about IQ as an inverse metric: Gifted pple exhibit skills-specific competence: geometry, drawing, algebra, patents, wealth, creations… The subset of [1) Losers who can’t do anything & 2) & scored high on IQ] will show their “IQ”. So IQ = adverse selection. Permalink 5:02 AM – 20 Jan 2019

@Iluvpizzayum I have a business. I hate rent-seekers. Permalink 12:34 AM – 20 Jan 2019