Tag Archives: Kapish?

Economists, Fake News, Turkish Lira, IQ, MY Planet, Kapish, Grandmothers, Neo-Stalinism, Umberto Eco’s Library | Twitter

@nntaleb Terms for the heinous s.a. “Nazi”,”racist”,”Hitler” get debased/corrupted over time,similar to the historical debasement of coins/currencies Permalink 12:35 PM – 13 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Added paragraph on how in Mediterranean news circulates through gatherings: mostly funerals.https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2#.k66ii4azv   Permalink 7:56 AM – 13 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I will from now on call economists “the wrongest profession”, w/attribution. @schmittpaula Permalink 7:44 AM – 13 Mar 2017

@nntaleb An illustration of how economists market the idea that if you do not believe in their unscientific BS, you are against “knowledge”.https://twitter.com/Aligarciaherrer/status/841091830427074560   Permalink 6:21 AM – 13 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Thing I learned today. From this sign: 1) Georgian script is written left to right. 2) Unlike Semitic scr it has explicit vowels. pic.twitter.com/Xj4z9oBjHE Permalink 1:57 PM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The Facts are True, the News is Fake”https://medium.com/p/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 10:48 AM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb For your book to be read in 20y, make sure content is 1) important for people today, 2) was also important 20 y ago. #Lindy @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 8:53 AM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The continuous & severe secular devaluation of the Turkish lira (USD-TRL) maps one-to-one to the devaluation of the terms “nazi” & “fascist” Permalink 6:16 AM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Nothing.https://twitter.com/NinjaEconomics/status/840797531479015427   Permalink 5:57 AM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The argument is that they know they can be harmed by price fixing as they may lose a job/ not get one. @spencerrs34 Permalink 6:22 PM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) Those affected by a minimum wage are those who earn currently below it and risk losing a job. Markets are Markets. Permalink 3:52 PM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the Game: Let the unemployed & those earning below some threshold decide on minimum wage, not some virtue signaling bureaucrat. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 8) One has to unlearn comparing probabilistic situations w/functions using “average” except under mean-field #Antifragile & @yaneerbaryam Permalink 11:56 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@mikeandallie A math exploration via an interesting integral posted by Nassim Taleb: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/03/11/a-math-exploration-via-an-interesting-integral-from-nassim-taleb/   #math #mathchat cc: @nntaleb Permalink 7:28 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Mr Josh Barro, @jbarro do you have any other expertise than selling BS? Permalink 7:10 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 7) I put “IQ” in “” as I don’t believe that measured IQ includes ability to tinker aggressively, real IQ for me. #GreenLumber #AntiFragile Permalink 7:04 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 6) A more technical discussion from scratchpad: Why the Tail is a different business, the more we go in the tails, the less the mean counts. pic.twitter.com/ufvpkJmEGL Permalink 6:43 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 5) In fact I simplified a bit. Popul. success depends on distribution of tails, Extr. Value Distribution. Discussed in book w/ @DrCirillo Permalink 6:28 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 4) This threshold phenomena is NECESSARY in the presence of winner-take-all in scientific & economic success (s. a. Pareto 80/20). Permalink 6:21 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 3) I wd fight w/baseball bat for @charlesmurray ‘s right of speech, but this central flaw was missed by his idiotic detractors. #middleburry Permalink 6:18 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) This in short explains why linking IQ to success for populations is total nonsense in the presence of nonlinearity. pic.twitter.com/sMeLFdWWlx Permalink 6:16 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 1) Assuming “IQ” helps success; the performance of a population would depend >>more on the variance than average. (convexity, #Antifragile) Permalink 6:09 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “First, do no harm” is Lindy-compatible (2500 y.o.) @normonics @GuruAnaerobic Permalink 3:20 PM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The libertarian version is to consider harm to the environment as harm against MY planet.http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2988742/apolloearth_a_wake_up_call_in_our_race_against_time.html   Permalink 9:00 AM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK.https://twitter.com/realistgrower/status/840027938162540544   Permalink 8:55 AM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb For those into integration, a difficult integral.http://math.stackexchange.com/q/2180737/88078?stw=2   Permalink 7:45 AM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Electricians, barbers, gardeners, surgeons, tango dancers, are experts. Not economists. How do we know who’s expert?https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.bf46qtuzd   Permalink 5:53 AM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Who is still reading you, I may ask? @NoceraBV Permalink 6:37 PM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Pseudo-experts (pol “scientists”, econs, journos) are making our disrespect for charlatans look like disrespect for all expert. Stop them.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/839973967624458240   Permalink 6:31 PM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I will NEVER write for Foreign Affairs again. Imbeciles.https://twitter.com/ForeignAffairs/status/839966563209973761   Permalink 2:59 PM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Olive oil, etc. @startupdaemon Permalink 11:20 AM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Oddity du jour: Constantinople, unlike Rome (& Antioch, Alexandria,& Athens) doesn’t have a Mediterranean climate. Permalink 7:03 AM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The formal difference between press & propaganda is unconditional & indiscriminate detraction or unconditional & indiscriminate support. Permalink 5:40 AM – 9 Mar 2017

@NewAlbrecht Continuing parade of people seeking to correct @nntaleb’s spelling of capisce (Kapish) is fascinating. Permalink 1:45 PM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The rule is: Use “BUT” as a logical operator, not to seek protection from consequences of your opinion. Kapish? @learnfromerror Permalink 12:56 PM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Typical wussiness: “I do not support Trump, but…” “I support Obama, but…” “I don’t always agree w/this *egomaniac* Taleb, but…” Permalink 12:25 PM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 3) In Antifragile, I explain that if the condition is mild, IGNORE doctor (grandmother is to distract). If severe, go to doctor. @SawsaGa Permalink 6:36 AM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) In medicine & tech domains, there are grounds to ignore the grandmother. In what relates to human nature (psychology), Lindy. @SawsaGa Permalink 6:31 AM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 1) There is a bias: grandmothers’ iatrogenics are seen, not those of medicine. I will be making a tableau. @SawsaGa Permalink 6:30 AM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb So asking your grandmother beats these “scientists” any minute. Or Montaigne. Lindy explained in my link https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.h2ikeddwu  https://twitter.com/BrianNosek/status/838742797742190592   Permalink 5:39 AM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Nohttps://twitter.com/GTCost/status/838567117150535682   Permalink 6:12 PM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Anything people say before the “but” 1) doesn’t count, 2) is a sign of weakness & should be avoided in straightforward prose.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/838480429732806656   Permalink 12:12 PM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Pareto on the Intellectual Yet Idiots why they make bad rulers @Maximilian_H1 pic.twitter.com/GkzUxLj2u3 Permalink 8:32 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Added a comment explaining the Salafi danger to the Chapter on Asymmetries w Minorities https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.a0mrs2gq9   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6YTPk6Omqk”>  pic.twitter.com/6YTPk6Omqk Permalink 8:03 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “Mis.” stand for “misattributed to”. What did you think it represented? @rsjanabasis Permalink 6:23 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to death your RIGHT to say it”(mis.Voltaire) but if you use violence to repress MY right… Permalink 6:10 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Banko detected the common mistake by IYIs is to think that one cannot write original science in a nonacademic, literary format.https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/838264746222702592   Permalink 4:49 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The double imbecile Yglesias wants to repress @charlesmurray ‘s free speech w/violence then calls him Hitler. Double Imbecile. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/838099996461436930   Permalink 5:18 PM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb They are looking at criminals… who were caught, no?https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/838058140612493312   Permalink 9:09 AM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) These idiots from CNN didn’t get the point. pic.twitter.com/I1VTaTdK1Y Permalink 6:30 AM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Only The Rich Are Poisoned: The Preference of Others”https://medium.com/p/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68   Permalink 6:07 AM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb There is no charm in becoming the establishment.https://twitter.com/TruthHawkLive/status/837945176605741057   Permalink 4:24 AM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Neo-Stalinism.https://twitter.com/charlesmurray/status/837675287445929984   Permalink 7:05 PM – 3 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Representation of the inequality @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/zDzvqiO9g5 Permalink 6:03 PM – 3 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Different angles: Proof that a picture is worth 1024 equations @CutTheKnotMath @Taitamco pic.twitter.com/UuUw1GAQZc Permalink 1:35 PM – 3 Mar 2017

@nntaleb My visit to Umberto Eco’s library. His library looked like a library, but he didn’t look like an author. https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52#.gy9xyrq0r   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BqJaGP2DI5″>  pic.twitter.com/BqJaGP2DI5 Permalink 8:25 AM – 3 Mar 2017

Math, White Helmets, Election Forecasting, GW Bush, Kapish, John Gray, Kenneth Roth, Salafasism | Twitter

@nntaleb 3) Had anyone asked me if I met with a RUssian official, my answer would have been flatly “NO”. Permalink 3:37 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) He sat 3 seats down, partook of conversation but I didn’t focus on who he was. You only know when pple remind you of it (he just died) Permalink 3:22 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Meeting w/Russian Ambassadors w/o being aware: Just discovered I had dinner w/the late UN Russian amb in NY, Oct 24 w/o realizing. No plot. Permalink 3:20 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@mdvex This centralisation thing works wellhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-finds-the-cause-of-its-aws-outage-a-typo-1488490506   Permalink 2:07 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Just added a chapter. For comments, thanks!https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49#.rh7scb14m   Permalink 1:03 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@NECSI What is #fragility? via @nntaleb, who will teach our May program on Strategic Data Analytics w/ @yaneerbaryamhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgS2feyXmWw   Permalink 12:56 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb It took me a while to realize you can’t convince economists; but we can work on the dismantlement of the DC economic machinery.https://twitter.com/robertwjordway/status/837366154771513348   Permalink 10:56 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb .@ottorosseforp @PZalloua To the contrary. Means STATISTICALLY “there is NO definition of Phoenician THAT matches tribes w/J1”. Kapish? Permalink 7:44 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Phenician expansion in Med, 1 mill BC did not export J1 gene, so there is evidence population was not Semitic. @ottorosseforp @PZalloua Permalink 6:36 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb J1 correlates with Semitic genes, does not equate with them. But absence indicates non-Semitic population @PZalloua Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 1) Way to see our theory that Phoenicians, Assyrians & N Caananites were not Semites: J2, J2a (light Green) v/s J1 (dark Gr) @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/t9w3IYRByg Permalink 5:44 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb …and b****t is using a generic statement from some wisdom handbook that can apply indiscriminately to anything you don’t like.https://twitter.com/jcrowrva/status/837287115524288512   Permalink 5:06 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Are there other societies where the person on top is not a risk-taker? How about devoid of rituals? https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52#.sw3giv10a   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ejzH6u6wdA”>  pic.twitter.com/ejzH6u6wdA Permalink 4:32 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the game, almost finished pic.twitter.com/6sEm1JDeWg Permalink 6:13 PM – 1 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Mathematics and baldness.https://twitter.com/daniellerommel/status/837072594222227456   Permalink 3:29 PM – 1 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Fake news tricks: NYT distorts my words, making it look as if I (not them) made an association w/”shame”. @realDonaldTrump is right. pic.twitter.com/NlQc94Q4zC Permalink 7:20 AM – 1 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Adult Math olympiads @MoMath1 pic.twitter.com/Wymyi54AgV Permalink 6:41 PM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The clip summarizes my problem with scientism/GMO charlatanshttps://twitter.com/R3plicant1/status/836624440813223941   Permalink 10:43 AM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A quant/engineering approach. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/hRPjkQXgq6 Permalink 7:11 AM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We should have special treatments/cures for neo-cons.https://twitter.com/Confusezeus/status/836584933552504832   Permalink 7:02 AM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The more you go into the tails, the less people & things should look like they way they should look likehttps://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52#.tyea44sb1   Permalink 6:37 AM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb MSM = propaganda; Insult to 9/11 victims.They are wittingly/un promoting White Helmets in spite of evidence it is AlQaeda cover w/Saudi PR.https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/836060012220928001   Permalink 10:11 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mini-Probability Mooc (6 min) Continuous Time Election Forecasting https://youtu.be/wA_3RwEIqzI   via @YouTube Permalink 10:00 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Levantine roots, Part 2 (plus some grammar) @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/8MlhoF1sU9 Permalink 9:02 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Levantine roots, Part 1. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/IvkkvtO472 Permalink 9:01 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For those into Orthodox lent, this is the Greek calendar. @ektrit @sustain05 @nanexllc pic.twitter.com/R3REBPaDFb Permalink 8:53 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We also want answers from GW Bush on WMD. And the “victory”. And the “stabilization” of Iraq/Afghanistan. And the costs of the war (s).https://twitter.com/davewiner/status/836219418015301632   Permalink 6:49 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nero was slandered w/he performed as “actor” which was the worst possible thing a Roman could do. @robby_red @fidempor @SnappyIsSoHappy Permalink 6:01 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Justinian had to get a special permission to marry Theodora because she was actress & daughter of actress @fidempor @SnappyIsSoHappy Permalink 5:49 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@CristiVlad25 @nntaleb I made an animated review of Fooled by Randomness. hope you like it :)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rwy0LNAbPHs   Permalink 4:50 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Kapish is not from italian capisci but from the Kalabrez Kapish. Kapish? @BJ_Lancaster @bat8bat8 @SantiagoPombo Permalink 4:49 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Imbecile, a generalization is ALL not MOST or “usually”. Kapish?@SantiagoPombo Permalink 4:04 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Actors are usually not very bright people; they don’t know how to act like actors. Permalink 5:48 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Simple rule: When you see “conditional” in science, exclude all subsets that fail to meet the condition. @badral @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink 5:05 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Can’t believe doctors can be argumentative & fail to see the diff between conditional & unconditional probability @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink 4:50 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A picture is worth a thousand integrals. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/57RrjajhHi Permalink 2:30 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@talraviv Does Medium have a Mega-Recommend button? This by @nntaleb put words to a nagging feeling I’ve had since collegehttps://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52?source=twitterShare-a56d3125abb5-1488141667   Permalink 12:42 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Thanks @CutTheKnotMath for training the clarity of mathematical thinking. It is like weightlifting for the mind. pic.twitter.com/6ZQBtJ3Twn Permalink 11:57 AM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You want to send your kids to college so they come back intellectually stronger, not pre-bureaucrats. #Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/835870988696875010   Permalink 11:08 AM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Wittgenstein’s ruler (in Fooled by Randomness): Under some conditions the table will be measuring the ruler than the other way around.https://twitter.com/ArmandDAngour/status/835880838713786370   Permalink 9:13 AM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb .@DrHasanAlam @colorfulfool he is clueless doesn’t get your question in particular or controlled variable in general Permalink 1:44 PM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You visibly aren’t grasping the point.Substance may correlate w/style, but CONDITIONAL on same record removes correl @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink 10:46 AM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You didn’t understand the text. Read again & look up “conditional” (everything else equ). Then think. Then tweet. @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink 10:32 AM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A Saturday without mathematics is like Mediterranean food without garlic. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/8Rpl2EyHfN Permalink 9:33 AM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The paper on responses in biology, volatility in feeding. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf  https://twitter.com/MilenaRodban/status/835496327899398144   Permalink 7:33 AM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Given their track record, I would recommend hiring academic economists and do the OPPOSITE of what they advise. For they aren’t even random.https://twitter.com/nytimesbusiness/status/835225349378215936   Permalink 1:28 PM – 24 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Surgeons Should NotLook Like Surgeons”https://medium.com/p/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52   Permalink 6:52 AM – 24 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Interesting discussion around the speculation of link between lifespan hearbeats/breathing and Jensen’s inequality. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154633815058375   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/TOq0rNdfji”>  pic.twitter.com/TOq0rNdfji Permalink 5:01 AM – 24 Feb 2017

@nntaleb From: 1986 New Declassified CIA Memo Presents Blueprint for Syrian Regime Collapse https://www.libertarianinstitute.org/2017/02/cia-memo-scenarios-of-syrian-regime-collapse/   via @libertarianinst Permalink 3:43 AM – 24 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I made a deal with John Gray where I would stop writing nontechnical books and just promote his as they read as if I wrote them myself.https://twitter.com/kpo1978/status/834911263901745152   Permalink 4:24 PM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We can visualize the solution obtained via calculus (optimization). @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/DABxf8JaJP Permalink 3:49 PM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Me neitherhttps://twitter.com/TheRealNeilS/status/834805903924854784   Permalink 8:54 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @ianbremmer please take students and visa-immigrants (former students whi stayed) from sample and show us results. Permalink 8:29 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@normonics The Minority Rule. cc @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/mariawirth1/status/834718262369853440   Permalink 6:36 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friends, thanks for the votes. Here is the passage from Skin In the Game. Business Plans shd not look like Business Plans pic.twitter.com/c105qZNbOY Permalink 6:29 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Statistical BS: compare cohort to cohort. “Muslims” in US (Iranians & Leb Shiites, Indo-Pakistanis) don’t compare to Sunni Muslims outside.https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/834756931705266176   Permalink 5:48 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Precisely: as self-righteous imbeciles like Tatchell spreads fake numbers they become consensus @PeterTatchell @lecaester @GreenRupertRead Permalink 5:44 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds.”—Taleb pic.twitter.com/amj3lzhW0u Permalink 3:24 PM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Facts: 1) The press is free. 2) Media is acting as propaganda. Now explain analogies to Hitler/Fascism that don’t lead to reverse. #Idiots Permalink 1:44 PM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For those into stochastic volatility, a result (maybe for book with @DrCirillo) pic.twitter.com/cwl50EpBy6 Permalink 8:10 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, you mean the nonviolent AlQaeda? @PeterTatchell @Darius1296 @GreenRupertRead Permalink 7:52 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nobody represents more the intellectual fraud faking *doing good* as Kenneth Roth. Good news: Frauds get eventually terminally busted.https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/833755019971293187   Permalink 6:38 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The good news is that the 2nd order effect is the strongest summary, locally convex or concave 97% of info. @normonics @YanKan_ Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A deeper view of Antifragility:primacy of n-th order effects, all these (Asymmetry, convexity) are from nonlinearity=2nd+ deriv. @YanKan_ Permalink 6:29 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Libs can’t get #Antifragile as they think in 1st order. Exmpls: to themmin wage income; comfort health; variation stability; Permalink 6:00 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@sanjayk_13 @rhianna @nntaleb It’s not hyperbole, the trader most likely to blow up with a spectacular loss in the real world will win Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Also EPA colluded with Monsanto to cover up cancer datahttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/834151562008096768   Permalink 1:58 PM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Schools have “trading” competitions. W/o enough risk/skin in the game, incentive is to shoot for Probability not Exp. The WORST trader wins. Permalink 1:10 PM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb UN Ambassador Samantha Something & Obama’s State Dept conveyed and acted on fake news.https://twitter.com/gjoene/status/834094781655576576   Permalink 10:42 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Will give 2 lectures May 4 (& 5) in the NECSI program.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/834014527880585216   Permalink 6:46 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I can kapish uproar ag. one suggesting pedophilia. But where is the reaction ag. salafascist preachers who condone it? TwoFaced PseudoLibs! Permalink 6:32 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Worse: they defend, cover up for, even embrace Salafasism.https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/834035993955155968   Permalink 5:49 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb To teach someone a real skill, teach him how to take risk & fail. He will never learn this in school. No nonrisktaker can ever teach it. v 2 Permalink 5:43 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb If you want to teach someone a real skill, teach him how to fail. He will never learn it in school. Permalink 6:45 PM – 20 Feb 2017

@nntaleb My friend Peter @PeterJTanous managed to cross James Bond with a Catholic priest. A thriller. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/RVQYOQ0ZLNAT8/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=1504035119   Permalink 6:28 AM – 20 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mildly mistranslated: Greeks should be “Hellenes”, Hellenistic diaspora.https://twitter.com/ccavafy/status/833487269621268482   Permalink 5:08 AM – 20 Feb 2017

Psychology, Noah Smith, Kapish?, Saudi Barbaria, Bernie, Ottomans, Yugo, Lebanon | Twitter

@MaxAbrahms The problem isn’t that Hillary makes foreign policy mistakes, but that she makes the same mistake over & over again:https://twitter.com/capreble/status/723849697245442048   Permalink 5:32 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb بمالطه بيكتبوا لغه ساميه بالحرف اللاتيني @adnanhobalah @ZJoureir Permalink 11:47 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb La2. Sa3iid 3akl kan ma7sour billebnene. Ana bilshami (ye3n3 el suriyye w se2er el mashre2 bima biyon el daffe elgharbiyye.) @ZJoureir Permalink 11:11 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/ mitlma el telyene ballash bi-Dante 3eyzin 7ada yektub adab bil-shami. Permalink 10:58 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb El3uroube wellgha el3arabiyye killa tezwir tari5e. El-shami ligha lawa7da bte2rab el-3arabe wel-arame, 3ayzin niktub kitub fiya latballesh. Permalink 10:55 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Kurzweil is not dangerous at all: the fool will give a test case of failure to outsmart opaque & complex systems.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/723909943796076546   Permalink 9:32 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fake kebbe: made out of a vegan paste (w/fennel) for Orthodox lent.pic.twitter.com/FWeAiJfTF8 Permalink 3:10 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Pleased to see the Arabic script phased out in Lebanon, mostly Christian areas. Next: replace Arabic by #Levantinepic.twitter.com/VGGkHiYGvI Permalink 3:01 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@Peepsqueak Turns out Scientific American is a Monsanto shill! http://huff.to/1Sp5mNQ   |@nntaleb rt @PhonkArtpic.twitter.com/430C40CmKN Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mediterranean mezze (tapas) with local araq ouzo Beirut style. The Mediterranean is about small plates.pic.twitter.com/5a6UymSzLQ Permalink 11:17 AM – 21 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Letting the media monitor itself & influence policy is letting those at the bottom in both streetsmarts & schoolsmarts run the world. Permalink 1:57 AM – 21 Apr 2016

@Hayder_alKhoei From Pakistan to Mali, Saudi-financed madrasas have popped up and cultivate religious extremism & terrorism http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/21/opinion/obama-in-saudi-arabia-exporter-of-oil-and-bigotry.html   #pt Permalink 10:29 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Information is like a *swelling* balloon. It grows with time.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/722591957030076416   Permalink 11:19 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Answer: If s[x]>0 for {x:F>1/2} => \int is >0. Background:The grrrreat M. Gell-Mann said work with prob outside [0,1]. It is just a weight! Permalink 5:23 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Said to be the Aramaic used by Egyptian admins. Countries didn’t switch to Ar. immed.;adapted Aramaic. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/718927788925804544   @HanySonbaty Permalink 5:17 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Achemenid Aramaic in Egypt (“Imperial Aramaic”) @HanySonbatypic.twitter.com/9gqjcsu42y Permalink 5:06 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Egypt spoke some Aramaic for ~1200 years before the Arab invasion. @HanySonbaty Permalink 4:50 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Now the core of the problem (still jetlagged!)pic.twitter.com/wbD8nXQZgB Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@adnanhobalah #syria @asadabukhalil @PierreABISAAB مش لازم نضل تاركينون يسرحوا و يمرحوا مدعي الخبره الاكيديميه ببلاد الشامhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/722835760160706561   Permalink 4:06 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb OK, first is true, second is false, but reveals an important inequality.pic.twitter.com/bQ3ZizKQ86 Permalink 4:25 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Aramean came to Egypt before Arabic (“mayya”, etc.) via the Persian invasion. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm   @HanySonbaty Permalink 4:16 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Removed more typos (jet lag). Proved first one, second TK.pic.twitter.com/GwKiSBSPrS Permalink 4:11 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Deleted tweets with typos and added conditions.pic.twitter.com/4FSKZCdf6n Permalink 3:58 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 7akiyna a2rab 3al-Arame minel 3arabehttps://twitter.com/THE_47th/status/722916556334714880   Permalink 3:42 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Antifragility and scale.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/710513143387185152   Permalink 1:51 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I got tipped off when @janinedigi (innocently) tweeted atrocities by Assad that were pictures of children in Lybia.https://twitter.com/JacksonDiehl/status/722829299657494528   Permalink 11:12 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic: When a ME think tank defines itself as “nonpartisan”, it is funded by Saudi Barbari/other Wahabi states.pic.twitter.com/IxQ2Tqp3eT Permalink 10:14 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am just conveying what everyone who doesn’t have a Phd in bullshittology called pol sci knows.https://twitter.com/raheeln/status/722823972035936256   Permalink 10:07 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In Lebanon sipping arak & heard something to got me enraged at think thanks. How Saudi Arabia captured Washingtonhttp://www.vox.com/2016/3/21/11275354/saudi-arabia-gulf-washington?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=feature%3Atop&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter   Permalink 10:04 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Debunking some spin about the Syrian warhttp://www.joshualandis.com/blog/presidents-al-assads-first-speech-an-insiders-account/   Permalink 9:05 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic. For a vacation place that’s not spoiled, not corrupt: no ski slopes, & no beaches. Permalink 7:21 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb To keep a balloon under water, you need to spend more & more energy.The DC lobbyist for Saudi Arabia can’t stop thishttp://nypost.com/2016/04/17/how-us-covered-up-saudi-role-in-911/   Permalink 6:05 PM – 19 Apr 2016

@DavidBCollum Lindsey Graham admits he’s a complete idiot/wuss/Saudi protectorhttps://twitter.com/thehill/status/722564703055167488   Permalink 5:06 PM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Someone saying “ethics is good for success” is missing the entire point of ethics. Permalink 9:10 AM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Saudi prince arrested in Leb for drug smugling. Saudis blackmailed Leb to release him. Leb said no, pull your $$.US will have same pride. Permalink 12:21 AM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb US says Saudi government has nothing to do w 9/11; only “members” of Saudi establ/Royal family that…run the placehttps://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/722251489494700032   Permalink 10:31 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am on my way to Beirut one of the very few places where Saudi Barbaria cannot reach me. Permalink 2:51 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is biggggg! They are progressively losing the state of denial that Saudi Arabia WAS indeed funding Jihadists.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/722172847351848961   Permalink 2:28 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb DEBATE: Ethical to give a women-only scholarship for the risk certificate? http://realworldrisk.com   @stevenstrogatz Permalink 9:39 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The EU developed into a tool for the bureaucratic class and lobbyists, hence as such will blow up. @hughhopper Permalink 9:30 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) The point is that if the Treasury needs junk math to convince you to stay, they did not find real aguments against it. @hughhopper Permalink 9:28 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr @tomstafford, again I asked you for a SINGLE counterample of a psych paper that got my Th. 1. One single will do.https://twitter.com/tomstafford/status/721621901089579008   Permalink 9:04 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Observe in my expurgating the system of BS-operator @Noahpinion how ethics follow the tenacious minority rule http://fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf   Permalink 8:04 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@zerohedge @nntaleb one reaction to the black swan piece http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-18/one-trader-finally-loses-it   Permalink 7:41 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I did write that book. It is called Antifragile.https://twitter.com/EngineerDiet/status/722068382800035842   Permalink 7:27 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Even without fat tails” is like saying “assume you remove one’s head”. @noise_random @rorysutherland @CravenPartners @Gerald_Ashley Permalink 7:18 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Why the UK Treasury equations are, mathematically, BS:in Silent Risk @CravenPartners @rorysutherland @Gerald_Ashleypic.twitter.com/WoJrOH3lCi Permalink 6:11 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Page to protect pple from Noah Smith @noahpinion BS operator and troll wBloomberg megaphone http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html  pic.twitter.com/6kaEwla8l6 Permalink 5:46 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Another oddity: the Ottomans until 1800s preserved Orthodoxy (deal w/Patriarch): Populations under them were Orth (Serbia vs Croatia) Permalink 5:42 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Indeed Machiavelli boasts of “bloodless wars”: knights had tough armor so were more like bar fights! technology=murder @alexapostolides Permalink 3:48 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My thesis director was a woman and there were 2 woman mathematicians on my committee. @stevenstrogatz Permalink 3:46 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nation State: Pre-unification of Italy battles were frequent but small e.g. Anghiari (~900 v.), Molinella (~600). WW1: 650,000 Italians died Permalink 3:33 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nero di Seppia. Last time before Orthodox Easter.pic.twitter.com/pLvxxQCQtk Permalink 4:57 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Not true. Not twice the intensity. More like … 10 times (part for those who are offensive to the general public).https://twitter.com/pauld1981/status/721810180162203648   Permalink 3:28 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We need to prevent Bloomberg from becoming a trolling platform https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/noah2.pdf   @davidjshipley @noahpinionpic.twitter.com/TnlXHbHFxW Permalink 3:24 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Here is the recent rigorous examination of the Christians under Umayads: Not so rosy. https://oi.uchicago.edu/research/publications/lamine/lamine-1-christians-and-others-umayyad-state   @BewilderedCopt @beshymike Permalink 2:25 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We know know that the Dhimi status was periodically rescinded, particularly under the abbasides @BewilderedCopt @beshymike Permalink 12:50 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Syria will have the same cyle as post Habsgurg Eastern Eur: after merger, Yugo back into more homogeneous states.https://twitter.com/sodronen/status/721760131743150081   Permalink 11:03 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A simple point in the article that explains why @Noahpinion failed his academic career.pic.twitter.com/7tINfCUHxi Permalink 10:54 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Historical rigor => comparing mores year by year: compare Ottomans 1480 to Europe 1480 (inquisition). Kapish? @drubald Permalink 10:36 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Irony of history:the more the Ottomans got Westernized,w/West structures/laws,the more they killed Christians @lilbabykeffiyeh @candela3paz Permalink 10:21 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In 1800s “The Mohammedan Wrld” was represented by a Greek FM.1980s:Egypt did not grant a Copt, Boutros-Ghali the rank of minister @beshymike Permalink 10:16 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Oddities of history: a Greek, Caratheodory Efendi (father of the mathematician) representing “the Mohamedan world”pic.twitter.com/awhReWggG2 Permalink 9:58 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Ottomans weren’t likeable; but Arabs were vastly more intolerant of Christians than the Ottomans. @beshymike @iShabi7a Permalink 9:47 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I vote for half of Bernie, for foreign policy.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/721733402714615808   Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Partly but remember Ottomans welcomed Sephardic Jews (Tessaloniki) & had Greek prime ministers. Not all black and white @lilbabykeffiyeh Permalink 9:11 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The very idea of Turkey as “nationality” was absent bef. Greek indep 1820 (even then, subjects), dev. after German and Italian unifications, Permalink 8:42 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You mean do NOT put probabilistic rigor into decision theory? @tomstafford Permalink 8:31 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nobody is saying Ottomans were social workers. But they tolerated minorities so long as there was $, unlike Turkish nationalists. @airdummer Permalink 8:19 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In Antifragile I discuss switch from imperial and tolerant Ottoman Empire to ethnic Turkish nationalism of late 19th Century with massacres. Permalink 8:12 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It Christian minorities have survived in the Levant, it is thanks to policies of the Ottoman empire. Reversal started with nation-states. Permalink 7:27 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Russia has nuclear weapons. The US has nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia has a large royal family with prediabetes. @Alea_ Permalink 6:28 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb And the Saudis already have a lot of gold,and Euro-based investments. They don’t have to sell $600 bn. And real estate…@sanatanabhasha Permalink 5:42 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Those who sell “precious” metals will receive … $$ it is a myth that money “leaves”, only price pressure @sanatanabhasha Permalink 5:37 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Lakens your paper is a verbose handwaving looping soup;I require rigorous mathematical presentation. @lakens @JPdeRuiter @Neuro_Skeptic Permalink 5:21 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@LaplaceHomeBoi @AdrianSterry @nntaleb @RudyHavenstein I propose the ‘NNT-value’. This measure the power of propagating bullsh*t until @nntaleb catch you Permalink 4:31 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Noah Smith @Noahpinion will resign from Bloomberg. He cannot use it a troll-platform @TonySandos @AdrianSterry @RudyHavenstein Permalink 3:37 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I could find a SINGLE book or paper in the psych of decisions that gets the point of Th 1. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  https://twitter.com/tomstafford/status/721621901089579008   Permalink 3:34 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Show a single COUNTEREXAMPLE of a psychology paper that does not violate the theorem 1. @jlmcht Permalink 3:33 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@AdrianSterry @RudyHavenstein @nntaleb NNT responds to assholes .0001% of the time, it’s just that instead of telling them to f*** off,he destroys them Permalink 2:35 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The other accounting pbm w/Saudi Arabia: by the time they start selling their reserves, now only $600b will be reduced by $300 bn Permalink 7:30 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Finally getting a compliment about Saudi Arabia.https://twitter.com/LongShortTrader/status/721525231173636096   Permalink 7:28 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Never hit the Obama administration, threatened by Saudi Arabia’s divestment, to ask: where will you put your $750bn? In Kuwaiti Dinars? Permalink 7:23 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Where we get more coherence from the Daily News than the “intellectual” NYT.https://twitter.com/GEsfandiari/status/721513453383524352   Permalink 7:10 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith were you”resigned” from Stony Brook for inability to do research or did you depart on your own? Was Bloomberg informed? @Noahpinion Permalink 6:07 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Added more to paper showing equity premium puzzle is miscalculated, an extension of Th 1. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  .pic.twitter.com/iZQuxGEpzV Permalink 3:42 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Democracy Shmemocracy, vague and gamable constructs. What matters is governance, absence of an agency problem, absence of rent seeking. Permalink 3:06 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms What’s amazing is how little Americans seem to care about Saudi involvement in 9/11, except for the widows https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/status/721451629644529664  . Permalink 2:37 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith so you wrote a critique of Karthik Arthreya’s book w/o having read it? “On the disgusting side” @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/UvSyrigQPU Permalink 2:12 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@Buy_Hold_Drink @nntaleb deals smackdown to @Noahpinion over shotty reporting. If reporters question the people, who questions the reporters? NN, that’s who Permalink 1:19 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith are there other books you’ve written abt w/o having read & if so, which ones? Or do you want someone else to reveal? @Noahpinion Permalink 1:11 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Noah Smith’s credibility is now gone (more TK) but by stopping at Bloomberg I would be letting down authors victimized by media. @Noahpinion Permalink 12:51 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@DFSalbatross @nntaleb there is nothing i enjoy more than seeing you go after people like this. of all applications of your philos, ethics most important Permalink 11:53 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So, Mr Smith, if someone asks you to mispresent something, and you complied, it ceases to be a misrepresentation? @Noahpinion Permalink 11:48 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Journos feel ENTITLED to write anything they can spin about you. Try to make them accountable & they freak out.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721392300446711808   Permalink 10:42 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So you mean the dean encouraged you to hide you were no longer prof. to gain credibility as columnist, Yes/No? @Noahpinion Permalink 10:39 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because I have the means, the audience & the will, I am morally obligated to vindicate authors terrorized by the press & make it accountable Permalink 10:10 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith, “a year leave?”. Your dean said in Jan: “he is not with us” & “he is not coming back”. Was he lying?https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721087624333492225   Permalink 10:02 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb OK, OK. Saints can be dangerous. So I prefer Saint Ron Paul to Saint Bernie though they have similar foreign policy.https://twitter.com/DoubleEagle49/status/721365398357020673   Permalink 8:52 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Not abt wrong but about being ETHICAL & fixing erroneous statements. Press is accountable. Kapish?@PaulThomasiii @Noahpinion @davidjshipley Permalink 8:43 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Breach of Journ Ethics by Bloomberg View & @Noahpinion; staff refusal to correct @davidjshipley cc:@MikeBloombergpic.twitter.com/kcDiYCud3c Permalink 8:25 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb An author *knows* if someone has read his/her book or bullshitting. In the case of Noah Smith it is blatant. @BenGoldN @Noahpinion Permalink 7:14 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@zerohedge @nntaleb he wrote a bunch of comments about ZH without actually having read any of it Permalink 6:20 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb They catching up to the fact that Noah Smith @noahpinion has written comments on The Black Swan without reading it.https://twitter.com/opento/status/721326705185570816   Permalink 6:19 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Try to mentally construct someone with the integrity of Bernie Sanders but with your political opinions. He raises standards! @saifedean Permalink 6:14 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Here is an explicit distribution of P-Hacking, as well as problems with power. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532v3   @JPdeRuiter @Neuro_Skeptic Permalink 6:13 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Sainthood: financially & personally uncorruptible, pure moral integrity. He can be right, or wrong, can’t be bought.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/721317569446178816   Permalink 5:59 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bernie Sanders has all the attributes of a secular saint. Regardless of the effects of his policies, he brings sainthood to public service. Permalink 5:41 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith tried to use his “academic” status to impart a scholarly credibility to his article. Scholarly he is not. @foxyforecaster @Noahpinion Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fighting terrorism while protecting perpetrators: The Obama admin compromises moral values: ever happened before?pic.twitter.com/byoc7bebB4 Permalink 5:02 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nachkari @LongShortTrader @nntaleb Noah is a partisan hack masking as an econ. He comes off as the archetypal econ that Nassim rails against Permalink 9:03 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Now a harder question, Mr Smith. Did you READ The Black Swan? Yes/No. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:39 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb But you should certaily be fired by any decent outfit for misrepresenting my ideas in The Black Swan in an article. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:27 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you say thay you are teaching at Stony Brook, there is no problem and I withdraw. Are you a professor there, Yes/No? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:25 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Back to the original question: why are you claiming to be at Stony Brook when you are not there? Why aren’t you answering? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:21 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It is only criminal to lie under oath or under some circumstances. Try to consult with legal before more bullshitting here. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:18 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If I ceased to teach at NYU I would not find it ethical to claim that I am a professor at NYU, no matter the title. @DreadCrash @Noahpinion Permalink 8:11 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I did not use “criminal”: your actual activity does not match your claims. Why? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:07 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Stop putting words in my mouth. You claim to be assistant prof at Stony Brook. When was the last time you taught there? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:02 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb That’s what fraudsters and bullshitters say when they are caught.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721103376767852544   Permalink 7:48 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb But… I am living well. I am just allergic to fraud & fraudsters. @WLTSchirano @Noahpinion Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is big: an implicit admission of involvement by Saudi Barbaria, or role of members of the royal family.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/721167105211564032   Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Scheduled for an interview w/Bloomberg TV. But from editors’ behavior @noahpinion I feel moral disgust. What to do? Permalink 7:31 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@TradeScylla Let’s show a little love for @nntaleb. A blogger lied and he didn’t let it go. If only #politics worked like this.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/721052151498338304   Permalink 6:36 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My theory was that someone like Noah Smith who writes BS will have many other instances of BS, hence …https://twitter.com/blightersort/status/721112619327819778   Permalink 4:13 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Another liar: ceux qui se ressemblent s’assemblent. https://twitter.com/amonck/status/721102923879620608   Permalink 3:32 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You have ALL the attributes of an intellectual fraudster. @Noahpinion @arosaen Permalink 3:31 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) And MISREPRESENTING is not an idea problem but a CHARACTER problem. Kapish? @Noahpinion Permalink 3:24 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) Point is not that Smith @noahpinion is wrong but that he actively MISREPRESENTS my work. & this is the 4th time. Msrprsntng is UNETHICAL Permalink 3:23 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I do not think that there is a single academic on the planet who does not notice his “citation” thing.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721088725929762816   Permalink 3:19 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith @noahpinion:agrees w/passage(bt makes me say opposite) His editor @JamesGreiff”Smith sees things differently”pic.twitter.com/UEP4MRfSaj Permalink 3:02 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Liekwise when people are caught making a logical fallacy, they call it a “disagreement”.https://twitter.com/normonics/status/721086028564471813   Permalink 2:26 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith you willingly spread this mistake on citation count. Yours was 0, not 5,483. @davidjshipley @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/TQlD4c69tL Permalink 2:21 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Black Swan about “overestimation”.It’s in CHARACTER for Noah smith to MISREPRESENT. @davidjshipley @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/pIcSM8Xdqu Permalink 1:35 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because I’ve seen Mr Smith committing other misrepresentations. It is his CHARACTER. @davidjshipley @jon4fish @Noahpinion Permalink 1:27 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Just ask the subject: Mr. Noah Smith have you been lying for 5 months about academic position? @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 1:14 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The dishonest part is MISREPRESENTING the idea. It is a matter of CHARACTER nothing to do with idea. @jon4fish @Noahpinion Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Call the University. I just verified with another member of the department, was told the same. @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 1:01 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith SHOULD HAVE changed his CV Bloomberg bio. @foxyforecaster @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:59 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Was informed in December that Noah Smith was no longer at U since he wasn’t fit for research. @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:55 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Further one does not have to write a rebuttal to Noah Smith when it was ALREADY in the book. Have some ethics. @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:44 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We can confirm that Noah Smith has been LYING about his position at Stony Brook. Does Bloomberg condone such BS? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:42 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Dear Mr Bloomberg, @MikeBloomberg, is it Bloomberg policy to allow journos writing about books they haven’t read? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:32 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith have you read T Black Swan before commenting? Is it Bloomberg policy to have journos randomize comments? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:29 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Since Mr Noah Smith I gather you haven’t been at Stony B. since at least Dec, why do you misrepresent position? @Noahpinion @davidjshipley Permalink 12:18 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Once again, Mr Smith, are you currently at Stony Brook Yes/No? @Noahpinion @SpeakingBee @mjd1735 Permalink 12:06 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb David Shipley @davidjshipley is the editor of Bloomberg View. Who was involved in editing/factchecking @noahpinion?https://twitter.com/LucasWilk/status/721050679729647616   Permalink 12:05 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Another point: Is Noah Smith hiding that he was thrown out of academia? It is compatible with his behavior @SpeakingBee @mjd1735 @Noahpinion Permalink 11:51 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Actually given that it was in The Black Swan Noah Smith violated journalistic ethics misrepresenting the idea &book. @mjd1735 @Noahpinion Permalink 11:11 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bob Shiller is v. honest, just showing since paper is being used. As to Pinker, I tried & tried convincing him privately before going public Permalink 9:43 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr @noahpinion,was told your academic career was cut short at Stony Brook. Why does you keep in bio? Am I wrong? @Kurtosis_ @InjuredThales Permalink 9:40 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb For those who ask: Bloomberg article abt Black Swans has same flaws as the Pinker article on war. Except worse.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/720989442194960384   Permalink 9:26 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb https://twitter.com/MarcosCarreira/status/324801689053962241   Bruno attributed this phrase to you Permalink 8:11 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Shiller paper is flawed. 1) wrong estimator 2) Bad tail prob https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf   @InjuredThales @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/QbwATMYrh3 Permalink 7:57 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Astrology does not influence policy makers, but BS psychology a la Sunstein does! https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153769251858375  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/720951206860992513   Permalink 6:58 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb As the 5b fine shows, the main difference between Goldman Sachs & other criminal organizations is, simply, better & more connected lawyers. Permalink 6:28 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You look at astrologers as a field of BS,I look at psychology as same but w/arrogance @Research_Tim @Firefly_fan @CoyneoftheRealm @ja_furman Permalink 5:25 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Psychology is so bullshit that it takes outsiders to debunk @Research_Tim @Firefly_fan @CoyneoftheRealm @ja_furman https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153769251858375   Permalink 5:14 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This response illustrates the resistance against anything but a 7th C language –& of course 7th century thinking.https://twitter.com/Quran_Chart/status/720773858316267521   Permalink 5:10 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mistranslation: “Atabeg Zanki God has mercy upon him) shd be “the late Atabeg Zanki”, رحمه الله = ref to departed @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhan Permalink 4:36 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Penguin translator is a BS operator: 60-70 in the original becomes 80. #bewarelazytranslators @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhan Permalink 4:31 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Minority rule: Yunan a Christian confronted 70 robbers; intimidated them t safe passage. @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhanpic.twitter.com/UlZTKBZIJh Permalink 4:29 AM – 15 Apr 2016

P Values, Deadlift, Precautionary Principle, Trump, Virtue, Kapish?

@nntaleb In high frequ quant finance we use >10^6 data points & nobody knows pvalue. Psychologists trying to get away with 10https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/717366620331618304   Permalink 7:02 PM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Normal humans can learn from Iraq and Lybia. Journalism became the last refuge for those with brain defects.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/717880860066856960   Permalink 6:56 PM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My Skin in the Game WIPhttps://twitter.com/evonomicsmag/status/717556674559668224   Permalink 4:03 AM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Por primera vez, texto en español [Bogota]https://twitter.com/luiscano/status/717442396473135104   Permalink 2:54 PM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb To paraphrase Yogi Bera, 90% of deadlifting is mental; the other half is physical. Permalink 8:13 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Meanwhile a 80% power for a test and 5% p-value aren’t science.Pick a large n & fughedaoudit http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf  pic.twitter.com/SUMZ6zCBeA Permalink 8:01 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Instead of risking Max deadlift, easier to figure it out from max{lbs: 3 reps <=failure}. @Pete_Spence @georgepearkes Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb in lbs of course. Permalink 6:32 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What is the max deadlift for a noncompetitive flaneur like me (adj. by age group) that would be considered decent? Permalink 6:29 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@esalazar_y There are only two people missing #Seneca and #FatTony @nntalebpic.twitter.com/aojYNa4QNk Permalink 6:37 PM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Precautionary Principle Simplified: Started rewriting @yaneerbaryam @normonics @RupertReadpic.twitter.com/i12VkJn8WC Permalink 11:40 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@kupiako @nntaleb @DontFadeeMeBro And his father died in 1999 Permalink 7:28 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Main diff betw. Trump and Fat Tony: 1) His FatToniness doesn’t like publicity, 2) Fat Tony wouldn’t marry a model.https://twitter.com/UncleDario1/status/716995760181616641   Permalink 7:30 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Also Trump had 4 siblings. @DontFadeeMeBro Permalink 7:26 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I only trust people who don’t care about their reputation. Virtue ethics is about acts of virtue even if they come with negative reward. Permalink 7:25 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb That is a myth about Trump’s inheritance. Work the numbers of cohort of others who have inherited.https://twitter.com/gweirydd/status/716993004096077824   Permalink 7:20 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal: Rediscovers scaling laws, how fragility increases with size.pic.twitter.com/55uXlT5XwD Permalink 7:15 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 305): Politicians sh**t scared of the press.pic.twitter.com/ZwM5grWlsV Permalink 7:11 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (pp. 282-283): How consultants & executives don’t hold a candle to someone w/ #SITGpic.twitter.com/24nofJ5AcN Permalink 7:08 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “To me, committees are what insecure people create in order to put off making hard decisions.” Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 281) Permalink 7:05 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My hobby is busting bullshitters @iandavidmorris, a la Feynman: “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”https://twitter.com/Priapus_D/status/716972631925387264   Permalink 6:04 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The fellow did not break the truth: comments in prnthss which is NOT standard but NOT unethical. Kapish? @semperfidem2004 @iandavidmorris Permalink 3:04 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In real science it is not about whether the scientist has the right standards; it is about his THEORY. Kapish? @homophonous @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:19 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) which is why Lux.’s theory is a valid hunch; disproofs are unrigorous w/absence of evidence fallacies. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:08 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1/Every Arabic speaker who had to memorize poetry knows that pre-Islamic vocabulary is v. different from Q. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:05 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@republicofmath MT @MathFour Engineers think equations approx reality. Physicists think reality approx equations. Mathematicians know equations are reality Permalink 11:31 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) So in spite of his solecism I find him closer to the SUBSTANCE of the subject matter than your elaborate nitpicking @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:40 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) As I said he knew enough Syriac to have detected the problem and confused Payne Smith for his daughter’s translation. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:38 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb His “sparkle” is in Payne. Check again. Attacking someone’s thesis on his etiquette is failing us: we care about the truth @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:20 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Finally, in my world (science, search for truth), scholarship is about SUBSTANCE, not trifles. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:16 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What makes me doubt your scholarship is that the fact that you did not check if the language was from Payne, not his own. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:15 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You are conflating breach of ethics & breach of the etiquette of a research milieu. By nitpicking, you reinforced his thesis.@iandavidmorris Permalink 11:56 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 If it weren’t for Obama, Shillary Clinton wd have transformed Damascus into an AlQaeda or ISIS Base. Keep her on the lecture circuit. Permalink 9:33 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We need to keep Shillary out of the White House. Whatever it takes, even if it means having a robot as president.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/716644245977899008   Permalink 9:24 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary: Anything that has an infinite (or “long”) shelf life (i.e. “sustainable”) falls under Precautionary Pple.pic.twitter.com/55pwCgaJM0 Permalink 6:55 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I think I got the p-hacking distribution & given no outcry by psych trolls it isn’t a “rediscovery”. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   @learnfromerror Permalink 3:13 PM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nobody can explain why the neocons are buying that Saudi Barbaria is helping Syria to become democratic. Is neocon a result of brain damage? Permalink 2:45 PM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If all progress is innovation, all innovation is not progress. As a matter of fact, 99.9% of innovations fail. @sarah_cone @uistbhoy88 Permalink 9:39 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that hotshot architects try to impress other architects and we are left paying the price. #noskininthegame Permalink 7:52 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Rainy Saturday: density of the preimage of the power of test. Concavity of measure, mean is lower than orig powerpic.twitter.com/mKd3T2CyNR Permalink 7:49 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Sadly, when a gentle, low-testosterone looking person promotes peace, he is much less convincing than a warrior-looking bully. Permalink 6:45 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that, unlike with fashion, music or cinema, fads leave a permanent scar. Permalink 4:59 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This summer I want to learn a new language. Which sequence is preferable? (Urdu as proxy for Hindi for script). Permalink 2:49 PM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Metadistribution: The dist of the pre-image of a power of a test. In other words, Power is as BS as P-Value.pic.twitter.com/xAGvyuqmjk Permalink 1:08 PM – 1 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms You know you’re a sectarian fraud when you say Assad must go for humanitarian reasons while cheering the Saudi-led carpet-bombing in Yemen. Permalink 2:24 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb P-value is a stochastic measure. Stochastic measures are not measures. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   @dsquareddigest Permalink 11:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fixed! @SandrewFinancepic.twitter.com/fWj8wc5z5F Permalink 11:01 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Connecting the Precautionary PPle to Peters and Gell-Mann(2015); something MISSED by the idiots in decision theory.pic.twitter.com/sOplMWr1we Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We are reframing the MINI CERTIFICATE IN RISK TAKING as risk management is back office, risk taking is front office. http://realworldrisk.com/inaugural_program_comments   Permalink 8:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@garyruskin Then: #Monsanto hid the truth about PCBs http://bit.ly/1C6Gupx  . Now: Monsanto says “Roundup Is Not A Carcinogen” http://wbur.fm/1MZz35R   Permalink 6:12 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary of philosophical approach to the inverse problem (in Silent Risk).pic.twitter.com/Sw3BQt1kvW Permalink 6:05 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The precautionary principle papers: No, there is no *scientific* evidence “GMO” are safe http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  pic.twitter.com/d08P8gYtLr Permalink 4:25 AM – 1 Apr 2016