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Tag Archives: Election Forecasting

Continuous Time Election Forecasting | Youtube

Published on Feb 27, 2017 Uses a continuous time process to price an election; we end up with an option-stule pricing. The martigale approach optimizes the Brier score. The corresponding paper is here: How to Predict an Election (pdf)

Math, White Helmets, Election Forecasting, GW Bush, Kapish, John Gray, Kenneth Roth, Salafasism | Twitter

@nntaleb 3) Had anyone asked me if I met with a RUssian official, my answer would have been flatly “NO”. Permalink 3:37 PM – 2 Mar 2017 @nntaleb 2) He sat 3 seats down, partook of conversation but I didn’t focus on who he was. You only know when pple remind you of it (he […]