Tag Archives: Cass Sunstein

Tail Probabilities, Ahiqar the Aramaean | Facebook

Finally put my finger on what is wrong with the common belief in psychological findings that people “irrationally” overestimate tail probabilities, calling it a “bias”. Simply, these experimenters assume that people make a single decision in their lifetime! The entire field of psychology of decisions missed the point.*

If you take the risk –any risk — *repeatedly*, the way to count is in exposure per lifespan. You get diverging results.

It turns out that your grandmother is more rational and more *scientific* than Cass Sunstein who advised Obama on “behavioral biases” of humans, trying to “nudge” us out of them. I am fed up with the class of people who think they know better than us what is in our best interest.


*(By entire I mean *entire*, no exception. They may handle biases differently but their equations have the same flaw.)


When the rich eats a snake, people think it’s for its properties; when the poor does it: because of hunger.

The Wisdom of Ahiqar the Aramaean.
(Incidentally many of Aesop’s fables come from him.)