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Harris, Shermer, Reviews, SKIN IN THE GAME, John Gray, Gini Estimation, Nate Silver, Alexander Bogomolny, Tetlock, Thaler | Twitter

@nntaleb Squid Ink Permalink 4:46 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) For some background, BS Vendor Sam Harris called me “insufferable”, then tried to make friends, then called me “insufferable” again after I refused (I am intolerant of BS). Permalink 2:42 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@BogeJan Calling @nntaleb arrogant because he calls you out on your BS is complete f-ing horseshit. He is extremely friendly and down to earth. He took the time to chat with me, a random fan, for a long time while he was visiting Norway, and even paid for my lunch! Opposite of arrogant! Permalink 2:17 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Gabish is the recreated pronounciation of Siculo-Galabrez (Calabrese); the “p” used to sound like a “b” and the “g” like a Semitic kof, a hard K, from Punic. Much like capicoli is “gabagool”. Gabish? Permalink 1:48 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb When I see fraud I say fraud. When I see BS I shout BS. NO intimidation, no smear campaign, no mobbing by fraudsters like Shermer, Harris et al. will make me stop. The more RISK I take for my opinions, the more HONORABLE I feel. #SkinintheGame. Gabish?   Permalink 12:42 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Just to insist that those Arabists who say that there was no such thing as Phoenicia as a placename are also probably not aware of the existence of such things as ancient authors. Permalink 11:56 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Pliny’s Natural History called the Levant strip “The Phoenician Sea”. Arabs later called the Med بحر الروم but like the “Persian” Gulf (=>”Arabian”) the name got redacted from texts. Brilliant idea @BellesLettresEd: superposed not juxtaposed bilingual txts Permalink 11:45 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@SindreSN As a person working in credit risk management I could easily just look at @nntaleb’s books as insulting. But «insults» that are well argued for, thought through and accompanied by real life examples are the most valuable input I can get.   Permalink 9:38 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I just published “The Controversy around Skin in the Game”   Permalink 8:16 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And Phil Coggan @econbuttonwood is thoughtful but didn’t realize my style has… not changed from when my message was better for him. I have always been iconoclastic –except my target is now journos. Permalink 7:32 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Actually, I just read the review line by line. Idiot-Shermer cherry-picks because the article continues: “All this is a shame, because the first, submerged Mr Taleb is still audible, and still has interesting things to say. ” Permalink 7:16 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb To explain it in my terms: the selfish gene is NOT necessarily ergodic (in practice will almost never be). Group selection is. Permalink 6:49 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb E.O. Wilson calls Dawkins a journalist, particularly after the reaction to the @DrMANowak paper: Dawkins & Pinker ignored the math. Shermer is a BS vendor; he doesn’t know science is based on rigor & statistical significance not multiplication of anecdotal descriptive graphs. Permalink 6:43 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath The lost boarding pass. An old question but with an upcoming follow-up   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:31 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb We can even track Roman genes in England … from US populations. Very exciting times for data scientists. Permalink 5:07 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb You will notice that Phoenicians (mainly J2a) are not “Semitic”. Languages follow minority rules. Needs to add some Natufians as they may not all be haplo E. Permalink 5:04 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Science, History, Culture, & (soon) probability at their best: rigorous tracking of ancient populations through genes. Dates will change as many are sequencing individuals from archeological sites. Will be improved with inf. theory/probabilistic methods Here IJ haplogroups Permalink 4:59 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In all fairness, @johngapper agrees mainly with the point and find the book entertaining (adding this), but I could not resist playing with his “flaw” Permalink 4:02 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And Zoe Williams, @zoesqwilliams should not put on public display a deficit in reading comprehension. Permalink 3:48 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Starting here a thread putting some skin in the game of journos reviewing Skin in the Game. We start with @johngapper at the @FT. Permalink 3:31 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I was polite I did not call them more accurately BS vendors. Gabish, @michaelshermer?   Permalink 6:54 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@jordanbpeterson These are very much the points I was trying to make (with some success) when I spoke twice with @samharrisorg : @nntaleb   Permalink 5:19 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Project Syndicate @ProSyn confirms they removed Henry Miller’s @henryImiller articles from their site. Permalink 1:25 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining the curse of dimensionality (and why it makes errors grow rapidly, hence impossible to see high dimensional effects even from known causes) #GMOs #DelendaMonsanto Permalink 1:15 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is the answer @CutTheKnotMath : As we add dimensions, something counterintuitive: the “half” space shrinks to …ZERO. This is the curse of dimensionality behind p!=np we used with GMO idiots.   Permalink 12:57 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lebanese traditional peasant dress. East Med., even Balkan.   Permalink 12:20 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@TMFStoffel If I only had 2 minutes to capture the essence of @nntaleb’s Skin In The Game, it would be this clip, especially the end, when the lawyer goes to drink the water.   #SkinInTheGame Permalink 11:19 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb By the way our argument (counter to what Monsanto shiils are claiming) is not against insulin GM and things “in the box” with low-dimensionality/known effects. Permalink 10:56 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is the link to the lecktchur   Permalink 10:50 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am retweeting this gem from @cutheknotmath because: as you go into higher dimensions, things happen… It explains our dimensionality argument againt ignorant GMO proponents and their unrigorous “science”.   Permalink 8:46 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Dear @HooverInst, can you please explain why you have taken no disciplinary action about @henryImiller’s case of scientific fraud? Should I take it up higher with @Stanford U.? Please let me know (as you know I will not give up.) cc: @EconTalker @nfergus Permalink 7:57 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 6) On the other hand, we can use science to debunk bogus historical claims using genetics and probabilistic methods. Permalink 5:15 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 5) The graph from Skin in the Game. This explains why people like charlatan Sam Harris BSing make “scientific” claims that are not covered by science. Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I see the reason Matthew Syed @matthewsyed did not feel hostile towards Skin in the Game and yours truly: He was a doer become writing about things. Also, he may have some understanding of Shiism and minorities. Permalink 3:52 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The TIMES has a real review, first one in which the journalist doesn’t try to take revenge against author for dissing his profession.   Permalink 2:42 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Omission is not symmetric to commission in the real world; only in pseudophilosophical parables. Permalink 3:04 PM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams is finally discovering that Skin in the Game means you can’t write a BS book review without SITG; don’t be surprised that the author is now capable of making you personally pay for it –and for a lonnnnnnnnng time.   Permalink 11:20 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The author of the article (cc: @econbuttonwood ) didn’t get that SKIN IN THE GAME => if you are IN FAVOR of any such intervention (Lybia), you need to go live there in case it fails or pay SOME penalty. Via Negativa is Not symmetric. Journos have a tough time with clear concepts.   Permalink 9:14 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My New York book Lecktchur. The only lecktchur in the US. Permalink 9:10 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb That’s pure BS. BS. Jesus would have looked like some Southern European or a Turk, not a “Middle Eastern”   Genetic evidence w/@PZalloua   Permalink 8:10 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Indeed @DToshkov this is just redoing what @DrCirillo and I did. It wasn’t needed & has no scientific innovation (in creating estimators & historiographical tools). But it does confirms that @sapinker is a bullshitter.   Permalink 5:16 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 4) Progress, like evolution, must be neither too slow nor too fast. Too slow means extinction from lack of adaptation. Too fast prevents retaining the benefits of past improvements, hence, again, extinction. Permalink 4:12 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) Let me rephrase for the slow at getting it. If you do not treat Tradition as (high dimensional) “experience”, you stand against science and statistical significance –the spine of experimental science. What has worked 10^10 times >>> some psych paper with 60% repl. error Permalink 3:42 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My section on rationality vs BS vending in Skin in the Game   Permalink 2:59 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb “Science and reason is the best we have” is a statement that is both pseudoscientific & irrational. It conflates science and scientism. Science is rigorous, makes no claims outside a v. narrow domain. “Tradition, risk management, and Skin in the Game is the best we have”. Permalink 2:57 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Someone said the debate was @sapinker Pinker against me. I am done after the statstcs part. Closed. The debate (if any) is non-erudite Pinker against uber-erudite John Gray. Permalink 3:01 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb John Gray is the GIANT.   Permalink 2:12 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Markov Chain approach Permalink 2:10 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Expectation of the Largest Number   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams conflates skin in the game & incentives. Skin in the game is ABOUT downside risk. “chief executives and shareholders who want values maximised – people whose skin is very much in the game of driving down wages.” Got it backwards! Pitiful. Permalink 8:04 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams also conflates skin in the game with conflict of interest (“mothers of murdered children”). How can one be so ignorant? A strange density of egregious mistakes per line in a book review… Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If you are observing (Greek) Orthodox Lent, (vegan except for, strangely, crustaceous), something easy in Med/an olive oil country, & you find yourself traveling in a butter country where everything has dairy products Permalink 5:03 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The other blatant violation of “Political Correctness” in the @guardian no less: So be cause I am naturalized not native to the West I don’t have skin in the game? WTF is this? Permalink 4:22 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@MicMarsSays “CEOs and shareholders who want values maximised–people whose skin is very much in the game of driving down wages.” 1. Entrepreneurs have Skin-in-the-Game as doers 2. CEOs & shareholders are risk TRANSFERERS 3. Your conclusion inverts Taleb, as risk-transfer disenthralls Permalink 3:31 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb As a Lebanese Christian and given that we Levantine minorities are the main victims of Jihadis, I find Ms Zoe Williams’ claim about my absence of skin in the game w/the West very ignorant and, mostly, very very insensitive. Permalink 3:23 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Susan, being an author is not needed for symmetry. Symmetry is in what she is experiencing now, accountability for bullshitting in a book review. Permalink 3:17 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 I reviewed the main ideas of #SkinInTheGame on my twitter in this thread if anyone wants to read   Permalink 2:50 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@PostTruthSerum A list of British aircraft losses in Falklands shows that 25 out of the 35 aircraft lost were helicopters and 10 were fixed wing. Permalink 2:10 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nitpicker nitpiked Dear @zoesqwilliams: Tks for the review. But if you want to nitpick, make sure you don’t make DISCONCERTING mistakes. 1) Learn something about vulnerability of helicopters 2) Minority rule is driven by manufacturing (bundling) 3) …   Permalink 1:55 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dan Sitaru’s Inequality with a Double Integral   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:19 AM – 21 Feb 2018

@gappullback To figure out how well you will do ten years from now relative to someone else, count your enemies, count his, and square the ratio. – @nntaleb Permalink 2:20 AM – 21 Feb 2018

@robertwjordway Great podcast interview with BBC @nntaleb, clear and succinct aka no BS. Imagine if we kept a politician’s speech that short… #SkinInTheGame   Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb London authentic squid ink Permalink 2:28 PM – 20 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Rolling, waiting, stopping   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:04 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 A thread about 100 things I took from @nntaleb’s new book “skin in the game”   Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 45- I am, at the fed level, Libertarian; at the state level, republican; at the local level, Democrat; at the family and friends level, a socialist. Permalink 7:02 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@byzantinepower Forces of The New Rome unite #Byzantium CC: @nntaleb Permalink 6:27 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Friends, another (shortened) version… Clear enough? Permalink 3:03 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 Have slept on Skin in the Game by @nntaleb, here is a thread about some things I learned/liked most Permalink 3:02 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Just hit me I have another talk at @dauntbooks at 12:30… Marylebone Permalink 2:26 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb What is it with people expecting a James Bond villain?   Permalink 1:32 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@adrianomcs87 If @nntaleb’s insight is right, and if the New Testment authors took a semitic (i.e., Hebraic) notion and translated it into doxa (meaning glory) then the view that they were vulgar Platonists is wrong, since doxa as opinion is one of the most basic notions of Platonism.   Permalink 2:26 PM – 19 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Announcement: I am not in Glascow on Friday. Never heard of this.   Permalink 7:33 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@KenMWolfgang Talk with @nntaleb about the evidence supporting the efficacy of the psychological arts. Then come back and tell me it’s superior to prayer.   Permalink 7:23 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@mikeharrisNY “. However, as Sepp’s chart below shows, What happened on February 5th was well outside the norm.” Ph.D in statistics should know that certain power laws have no “norm”. Outside the norm is the usual rather than the unusual. @nntaleb Permalink 7:21 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@benshapiro Evidence gathered from many locations over many years indicates no religious person was arguing that, you dumbass.   Permalink 6:49 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@yvespatte Ce livre @nntaleb est une véritable arme de self-defense contre les discours de ceux qui écrivent et déterminent le monde, sans jamais mettre leur peau en jeu, sans jamais en payer les conséquences (d’où l’asymétrie) & c’est un vrai plaidoyer pour les entrepreneurs ! A lire !! Permalink 2:23 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Should we announce that Mr Van Someren @alexvans will replace me and speak in my place at @Silva’s Second Home?   Permalink 8:02 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@NateAgapi If you haven’t already, you should read Nassim’s book Antifragile. It very much is a scientific critique on many modern systems. It centers on the lack of understanding of statistics. Much of what we think of as science is really mathematical ignorance. Taleb is trying to reform. Permalink 4:29 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb After 2 years of work, our paper “Gini Estimation under Infinite Variance” with @DrCirillo & colleague was accepted by Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Applications.   Permalink 1:21 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb A culture of intellectual honor: NEVER fight anyone outside the limit of the specific fight of concern to you. And never dig people when they are down. Now, intellecktchuals need to learn something about honor.   Permalink 11:16 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Oh no.   Permalink 9:41 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The fact that I dislike @wmarybeard & her “scholarship” does not mean I need to be concerned with her other disputes. So I will block anyone getting me involved in her other problems. Gabish? Permalink 9:19 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Same for multiplicative chains from Government Intervention   Permalink 7:25 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@Lekapenos Every time NNT says Phoenicia multiple Arabists commit suicide, Permalink 6:48 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Archeology? Of course: here is a Roman temple just outside the village. Permalink 6:39 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Bottargua with Araq. Last day before Orth Lent Permalink 4:29 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb It snowed all night in Northern Phoenicia The “White Mountain” Permalink 3:03 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My neighbor in NY is first to see a hard copy of my book (I am in Northern Phoenicia & he opened the shipment).   Permalink 10:53 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If it is offensive to wonks, like @CLANicholson, it is purely intentional.   Permalink 6:59 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@normonics the logic doesnt seem to work for bloggers. you share what you write on a blog. the blog is the product. N is writing books and sharing the making of the sausage. Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb So, in other words, if you see, say a B-School academic with the attitude that “he is smart & had he wanted he would be richer than practitioners” explain to him that he is not an academic BY CHOICE but out of incompetence. Permalink 4:07 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Indeed @R_Thaler’s mental accounting is an interesting intellectual fraud (I mean, really charlatanism): not only he did it statically but by his own admission verbalistically. They add “mathematics” for show.   Permalink 3:28 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@Matthew_T_Kent If these people weren’t so out of touch, they would understand that stories of Trump having affairs with Playboy models will only serve to boost his image. As @nntaleb said: If someone would rather be Trump instead of his detractor, they won’t be swayed by the character attacks   Permalink 2:20 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Finally, some mystical mathematics:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:37 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@startupdaemon One dictionary I found defined original δόξα as “conjecture”, not opinion. So there isn’t so much an evolution as filling in. The most basic SITG practice consists precisely of conjecture, then (in the extreme) heroic action to “test” it or “make it become manifest”.   Permalink 5:54 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@vonkronstadt You’re confusing different meanings of “belief”, again NNT nails it in one tweet   Permalink 3:12 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb This mysterious @pseudoerasmus got the point that enlightenment != popenlightenment, Soviet-Harvardism reason!= naive rationalism, atheism, literalism scientism!= scientism sckepticism is about secular not metaphorical values. But he is wrong on Pinker Boy’s theory of violence.   Permalink 3:05 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) THOSE WHO EAT TOGETHER BAND TOGETHER For instance since Muslims can eat Kosher food, why did they add another interdict: wine? To prevent socializing with Jews and Christians hence lower exposure to conversions. Permalink 1:12 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Highly doubtful. This is an ad hoc “sounds good” explanation. A- 1) Kashrut came with >500 other interdicts. 2) Local neighbors (Greeks, Canaanites, pre-Islamic Arabians) had no such interdict on pork. B- Interdicts serve as religious markers. I discuss in SITG. Permalink 1:02 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb No   Permalink 12:53 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb No, @NaomiAKlein should not retract. All tawk. She should go reside in Venezuela. Now. Skin in the game, @jordanbpeterson eliminates tawk.   Permalink 12:27 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@GuruAnaerobic After having followed @nntaleb for many years, I now can’t look at ANY research and accompanying statistical analysis without skepticism. I’m basically seeing bullshit everywhere – it’s killing me! Permalink 9:05 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@jordanbpeterson Ms. Klein @NaomiAKlein since you haven’t retracted your very public support for the murderous totalitarians of Venezuela, it might be better if you just kept quiet…   Permalink 8:33 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Tossing, waiting, and stopping   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:27 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb NonProfiteers & academics who think they made a “sacrifice” underestimate how hard (& rare) it is to make money in the Real World w/o rentseeking. Authors who think they “sacrifice” by not dumbing down underestimate how hard (& rare) it is to sell a book to very wide audiences. Permalink 6:15 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@Mangan150 The replication crisis in clinical psychology: evidence that psychotherapy works is weak.   Permalink 4:30 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@mikeandallie This falls into the professional math bucket and not the “math for kids” bucket that I’m usually tweeting about. This is a fascinating paper about the the amount of data you need to be able to make meaningful statements about a data set.   Permalink 3:24 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) It is not just that the Leb war numbers are bogus but they come from journos who BS and cite each another (citation ring), causing an inflation in numbers. Some idiotic historian gets them into books w/1 citation. Trying to clean up war data w/@DrCirillo @ABarnardNYT Permalink 2:57 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The link is here:   Permalink 2:52 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Finally posted my paper on consequences of fat tails in observing an average (you need 10^13 more data for Pareto 80/20 than for a Gaussian). Permalink 2:43 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Actually the numbers for the Leb civil war are bogus. BTW I was there. Same as Hama 1982 climbing without reason. Chapter in Skin in the Game   Permalink 2:30 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Smart actors become executives Permalink 10:42 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a Random Inequality   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:59 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Twelve hours in Casablanca airport. Permalink 6:29 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a Meet in an Elimination Tournament   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 6:21 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining the Weak Non-Ergodicity: Not only your fate will not “average out” but it will diverge over time, the opposite of what has been believed for 290 years in the stupid decision science literature.. Risk is something to be seen dynamically, not staticallt @ole_b_peters Permalink 6:01 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@VergilDen Smart prostitutes become lobbyists Permalink 5:22 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Will @WikiTribune become a platform for Monsanto the way Wikipedia has been?   Permalink 3:20 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Without skin in the game: Smart drug dealers become pharmacopsychiatrists; smart astrologists become economists; smart serial killers write for the Wash Post; smart bullshitters become “experimental” psychologists; and smart bankrobbers become bankers. Permalink 2:40 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nate Silver shd not be lecktchuring anyone on probability and statistics. And “deep learning” works better than stat 101 in many domains. Dangerously better.   Permalink 12:39 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@careygillam These Citizen-Regulators In Arkansas Defied Monsanto. Now They’re Under Attack “He doesn’t regret his vote to shut down dicamba spraying. “I put forth a good effort, to the best of my ability, to protect the citizens of Arkansas,” he says.”   Permalink 12:23 PM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Under the fascist regime of Franco, the Basque language was banned. Well, the Lebanese language site @learn_lebanese was suspended by Twitter for no apparent reason, with no negative interaction. Twitter, is it censorship by Arabists? Please explain. Permalink 11:37 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Historical Table of drawdowns (70 years of SP500, ~17k observations), different scales, and tail exponent concerves that of returns. Permalink 10:38 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb For those wasting time listening to journos on market “collapse”: this is normal, very normal business. Very, very normal. Markets are in STATES OF DRAWDOWN (i.e. trade below the peak) ~75% of the time, EVEN when returns are yuge (see 180 years of drawdowns by @financequant) Permalink 10:29 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@WissamYKhalil Just read this great piece from @nntaleb. After I learned Syriac I noticed this, but never have I seen such evidence. Great work! A must read for all those who categories Lebanese as Arabs.   Permalink 11:55 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lesson: Nobody us Pro-Saudi Barbaria for free   Permalink 7:11 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb La Boetie: Pour accéder à la liberté, il faut n’être ni maître ni esclave.   Permalink 7:03 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK, my turn to signal.   Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Why we started the Real World Risk Institute: education can only come from practitioners.   Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile I used Mathematica for a functional quiz Permalink 6:36 PM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Antifragile (or philostochasticity)   Permalink 3:46 PM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lunch with maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath discussing probability riddles Permalink 10:38 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@ole_b_peters This is the foundation of economics. On this page Bernoulli does NOT compute the expected net change of utility. Don’t take it from me, check for yourself and retweet when you’re convinced. Bernoulli’s 1738 paper   Hints on p.023103-6   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:17 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@MTayyabAhmed …one should learn to avoid using terms made for knowledge to describe its opposite. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan) #nassimnicholastaleb #theblackswan #quotes #nntaleb Permalink 8:00 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I cannot be diplomatic with harmful frauds. Sorry, but it is not my nature. I can’t stand frauds. I really can’t. Gabish? Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Before submitting to Arxiv, my paper on the law of larger numbers and statistical significance under Fat Tails, for error deteckshion.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:03 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@DrCirillo It’s funny to read claims about changes in the number and magnitude of wars, when the average time span between two large wars is larger than the observation window used to support the claim. It’s like: since it has been raining for three days, the sun does not exist any longer! Permalink 5:52 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Very good, Joe. Descriptive statistics (i.e. without significance test), @DrCirillo and I will argue are a NO-NO with Fat tails and/or time series. Permalink 5:19 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am certain Monsanto is taking over Wikipedia, @jimmy_wales. This page on the journal entropy does not mentions that many agencies consider Glyphosate likely carcinogenic, uses criticism by Monsanto shill Kevin Kloor. Permalink 4:49 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Incidentally, in spite of our plethoric explanations, @PTetlock keeps misdefining the precautionary principle as local risk management /what falls under tort laws. The Precautionary Principle is to make sure the system is there tomorrow.   Permalink 3:34 PM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The anti-BS vending mission is working, one mind at a time. (with permission) Permalink 11:26 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb It could be associated with bull worshiping coming from Neolithic central Anatolia, traveling with the J2 haplogroups across the Med (Canaanites, Minoans, etc.) In other words, perhaps it came WITH them in Mesolithic or early Neolithic, not learned from neighbors.   Permalink 10:56 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb “We Are Living In A Reality Distortion” Mark Spitznagel Warns “This Is Not Over Yet” | Zero Hedge   Permalink 10:17 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb FU attitude…   Permalink 8:03 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 5) Actually @DrCirillo and I wrote a paper on historical wars assuming that historians are bullshitters, getting a sort of metric of robustness to bullshit by historians.   Permalink 3:13 PM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 4) I am not saying history is BS, only that what you find in history books is full of BS. A lot of fake news. Stop conflating History=good w/ historians=good. I am seeing that via history of wars and genetic maps. Also from bullshits by historians.   Permalink 12:16 PM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In fact, anyone who has taken risks professionally knows this intuitively, but verbagiastic @PTetlock and nudgeboy @R_Thaler can’t get it. Permalink 11:32 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining both the XIV trade and why forecasting is some type of academic BS.   via @YouTube Permalink 10:59 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@jacoporomei Yesterday I had my last day with @nntaleb. This is my last personal report about Real World Risk Institute workshop in New York City. Enjoy! #risk #rwri #antifragile #blackswan #skininthegame   Permalink 10:18 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) If you look at the court system (common law), you can see that it evolved to build a process; not hard laws but procedures designed to minimize errors of reasoning. Permalink 9:31 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And what I mean by law is common law, bottom up Permalink 9:17 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Why correlation is not correlation   Permalink 8:07 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If you remember less crap as you age, it is largely that your filtering mechanism is getting trained.   Permalink 7:50 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Libertarianism is about replacing authority with laws (legal systems, courts). Hard sciences (math, physics) obey laws, bullshit disciplines (psychology, history, sociology) obey authority. In the absence of #skininthegame, authority evolves to BS. In anything. Permalink 7:34 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) we know for sure Tabal is NOT Semitic in origin (TNBL= 4cons. not 3) also it is made into a verb in Leb. Permalink 6:22 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Philology Question du jour. Tanbal (“Farniente”) in Lebanese is Τεμπελιάζω in Modern Greek. Which one comes from the other, or is there a common origin?   Permalink 6:20 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb WEF staff is a bunch of BS artists concocting what feels right and sounds intelligent. Zero rigor. For instance @amonck is a fraud.   Permalink 5:59 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Rule in life: never cite/post analyses by WEF/Davos. Never.   Permalink 4:57 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The pseudohistorian @mikeduncan has to be a total intellecktchual fraud: He jumped in, commenting on the Mary Beard problem without even knowing anything except that it was Mary Beard on the other side. Historians & pseudohistorians are good at fake news. Permalink 3:47 PM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The main difference between Mediterraneans and nonMeds: Farniente (doing nothing) is active for a Med. Permalink 10:53 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Which is why one should not let low-IQ state department & think tank analysts (without skin in the game) anywhere near your problem.   Permalink 6:56 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb « Jouer sa peau » et gagnant-gagnant   via @lcagora Permalink 6:18 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Functional Inequality from Vietnam   #FigureThat #math #geometry ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:02 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@RandPaul Tonight, you could feel the frustration and embarrassment growing in Congress as we exposed the hypocrisy of Republicans who are joining in an unholy alliance and spending free-for-all with Democrats at the expense of the American people and our party’s supposed principles. Permalink 10:53 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@yaneerbaryam “Monsanto manipulated science to promote pesticide glyphosate and GMOs”   Permalink 4:51 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@RandPaul Would you voluntarily give your money to the federal government for things like this? Wasteful spending is riddled throughout government and this deal just adds to the problem. Permalink 3:30 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@trishankkarthik Really insightful observation by @nntaleb at #RWRI7 “Although the [cybersecurity] events involve multiple Gaussian points of failure, the dollars involved are power law distributed.” Permalink 2:17 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@_NicT_ Today at #RWRI @nntaleb described a third regime in between mediocristan and extremistan, notable for memoryless exposures over time. Hey Nassim you should call this one ‘persististan’. Permalink 12:50 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@GuruAnaerobic The Real World Risk Seminar is like being at a 5-day banquet. If u havent been yet, plse consider attending.The knowledge gained is immense Permalink 9:44 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@CllrBSilvester During 2nd World War many Brits went to fight with French Resistance against the Nazis. When they came back, if they did, they were treated like heroes They weren’t thrown in prison This Tory Gov has totally left leave of its senses. Most people can’t believe they have done this   Permalink 8:46 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@jacoporomei So much to tell, too much to tell! #RWRI Day 3: my experience report. @avanscoperta! We will need 34 meetup! :-D #complexity #iyi #risk #cravattato   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:30 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@ayltoncf Maybe @nntaleb would like this one.   Permalink 3:47 PM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb REWRI (Real World Risk Seminar), @trishankkarthik presenting P/NP and predictability, comments on GMOs. Permalink 12:51 PM – 7 Feb 2018

@Spfannenschmidt In light of @nntaleb’s #RWRI 1) rules for optimizing group vs individual characteristics should differ 2) some of the trees in your random decision forest should be paranoid and overreact   Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A correction is in order Permalink 8:18 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Difference with Pinker boy (@sapinker): + No US book tour (1 lecktchur in NY) + No copies sent to journos (they can buy it themselves) and mostly +No BS   Permalink 7:25 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Non, le libanais n’est pas un « dialecte » arabeNon, le libanais n’est pas un « dialecte » arabe”   Permalink 6:25 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Always apologize except when did something wrong. (Bed of Procrustes) Permalink 6:14 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Apologies are just words. You want them to ALSO lose their own money. Nomura “Sincerely Apologizes” For Blowing Up Investors With Its VIX-Linked ETN | Zero Hedge   Permalink 5:50 AM – 7 Feb 2018

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