Tag Archives: Las Vegas

GMOs, Genetics, Boulder, Copts, Manchester, Levant Project, Ron Paul, journos, Las Vegas, Wolfram, Revenge | Twitter

@nntaleb Is it possible to find anyone in the State Department w/ minimal reasoning abilities, in other words not brain dead?https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/869691250261315584   Permalink 3:15 PM – 1 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Sleep deprivation leads to random sign inversions! Found even sharper bounds Yan et al (2014, 2017) https://journalofinequalitiesandapplications.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13660-017-1372-5   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eqBMmKr0jM”>  pic.twitter.com/eqBMmKr0jM Permalink 7:29 AM – 1 Jun 2017

@garyruskin The #MonsantoPapers on the front page of @LeMondefr in France. http://lemde.fr/2rtEAAK   http://bit.ly/2mJSyvq   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/HVjYof76bE”>  pic.twitter.com/HVjYof76bE Permalink 7:04 AM – 1 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Jumping from 15th floor is just the same thing as taking the stairs, “just a bit quicker”? GMOs NOT same category as progressive tinkering Permalink 4:46 AM – 1 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Note that there has be NO Risk study for GMOs, NOT ONE. All Monsanto did instead was smear critics via shills. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 3:57 AM – 1 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Genetics work for populations given linearity of descent (haplo) But saying which genes => diseases/traits, NONONO.https://medium.com/incerto/where-you-cannot-generalize-from-knowledge-of-parts-continuation-to-the-minority-rule-ce96ca3c5739   Permalink 2:24 PM – 31 May 2017

@nntaleb Dietwald Clauss is hired by a PR firm to counter every comment on GMOs, demonize skeptics. He tried to infiltrate a picnic. Just Block. Permalink 12:10 PM – 31 May 2017

@NonMeek .@nntaleb The 2. and final strip on the topic of “misattributed causality” … still inspired by #Antifragile & #FooledByRandomness pic.twitter.com/VCDhkdISqG Permalink 10:37 AM – 31 May 2017

@nntaleb No pic.twitter.com/iW2tUeKPH5 Permalink 3:41 AM – 31 May 2017

@nntaleb …and if you don’t take risks there is absolutely nothing that can make you big.https://twitter.com/NaviStarLegal/status/869861523837026305   Permalink 3:26 AM – 31 May 2017

@nntaleb This solves the puzzle: French connection isn’t from crusaders (cross-entropy mito<haplo) but Neolithic/Bronze Age Eurasian migration pic.twitter.com/atrlLCdEoQ Permalink 3:25 AM – 31 May 2017

@M_Gauche Ummm, has @nntaleb seen this article yet? Figure he’d have done a victory lap by now:https://www.theverge.com/2017/5/30/15713536/ancient-egyptian-mummies-dna-genome-sequencing-near-east   Permalink 2:13 PM – 30 May 2017

@nntaleb Q: Why is differential entropy not used in genetic distance when it is the most natural way, as DNA IS Information? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_entropy   Permalink 11:56 AM – 30 May 2017

@nntaleb Also it looks like the Levant was settled with Northerners before Akkadian invasion (few men), hence diff mito-haplo, even for Muslims. Permalink 8:45 AM – 30 May 2017

@nntaleb The French link is from the Crusades. As to Cyprus, it is closer on the Y chromosomes. Permalink 7:56 AM – 30 May 2017

@nntaleb We need Iran and Turkey Permalink 7:25 AM – 30 May 2017

@nntaleb Genetic distance for Lebanese using differential entropy on mitocondrial DNA using @PZalloua ‘s data. GoodPlaneride pic.twitter.com/4VCeTxksos Permalink 7:23 AM – 30 May 2017

@nntaleb It doesn’t mean that these at the top have 50% of the wealth (about 100 million for 50%) but that they have more than the bottom 50% Permalink 10:20 AM – 29 May 2017

@nntaleb Found something interesting attributed to drawdowns, from the works of @financequant Robert Frey modelled PTV & found no change historically pic.twitter.com/1Bp5uqGiiN Permalink 7:09 AM – 29 May 2017

@nntaleb Heading straight from airport so might be jetlagged. follow up tp https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.02369.pdf   making the tails even worse. Permalink 6:57 AM – 29 May 2017

@nntaleb My BBQ minitalk tom. in NY (frm plane) on why it is error to use historical returns w/o extrapolating beyond maxima e.g.@WGoetzmann et al. pic.twitter.com/wLMndmzzux Permalink 6:51 AM – 29 May 2017

@nntaleb Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder v/s Messy: The Power of Disorder to Transform Our Lives @TimHarford (w/o attribution) Permalink 12:54 AM – 29 May 2017

@nntaleb They show concentration of of wealth among a few: as if these TOOK away from others rather than ADDED to the pot Wealth ≠ Rent Seeking !https://twitter.com/amazingmap/status/844508707849302016   Permalink 11:11 PM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb Does Boulder have a resort/vacation feel to it? Permalink 10:57 PM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb Saddest thing abt the Weinstein affair: he has to specify that he is “on the left”, as if it were a requirement to express an opinion. Permalink 10:46 PM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb Most “humanities” profs have minimal erudition; they spent their time studying THEORIES made by other profs. Universities killed humanities Permalink 2:09 PM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb “Study the classics” and “study the classics under academics” selected via “papers” are two different things. Permalink 12:02 PM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb Most humanities as taught in colleges are BS. My only academic association is with an engineering school. Permalink 12:00 PM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb The university system is on its way to go bust. It will regroup as separate technical schools devoid of “gender” & other BS studies.https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/868894401229094912   Permalink 11:39 AM – 28 May 2017

@IndiTrades Examples of misattribution of discoveries/developments &/or cornering of credit by “Intellectuals” via @normonics @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/PXV9coVkey Permalink 7:38 AM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb A quantitative comparison of spread of BS vs. NonBS Tweets by the same person.https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/868596817251803138   Permalink 5:22 AM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb The UK would have been a better place with Steve running 10 Downing St.https://twitter.com/stevehiltonx/status/868541930639982593   Permalink 12:32 PM – 27 May 2017

@NonMeek .@nntaleb “Mistaking the merely associative with the causal.” another great lesson from #Antifragile and #FooledByRandomness pic.twitter.com/XG4kpQJQ4b Permalink 10:58 AM – 27 May 2017

@nntaleb Friends, a question. What’s the most representative vacation place in Colorado for hiking/flaneuring/eating? Permalink 6:31 AM – 27 May 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The Merchandising of Virtue”https://medium.com/p/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 3:19 AM – 27 May 2017

@nntaleb Finally, thanks, the new Intro for a few hours. Only info needed is “smoothness” for many ideas to squeeze in it. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/SkinExcerpts.pdf   Permalink 6:55 PM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb See Yaneer @yaneerbaryam work: better fences make better neighbors. Permalink 6:14 PM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb When @Nigel_Farage told EuroMPs: “None of you had a proper job”, they didn’t get it. To get it, you need to have to make a P/L, not a salary Permalink 4:30 PM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb The only solution for the Copts is a self-governing enclave. Other Egyptians call that “sectarian”. F*** them. Mabiḣikkak illa ḋufrak,https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/868234076037238789   Permalink 4:00 PM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb With @sez_dss in a pastry store in Amioun. Owner told us that I looked like the Black Swan author who lives in America. “Maybe a little bit” Permalink 5:51 AM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb “Never give weapons to a fool. You may harm him and harm others.” Permalink 2:33 AM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb Esseleḣ bi’id elḱara byijraḣ (about arm sales) Permalink 2:32 AM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb …rather “because” ‘body slamming’ journalisthttps://twitter.com/anon_eu/status/867995624225910784   Permalink 1:32 AM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb The gist: If you have the courage to put your intellectual integrity before your reputation, nothing can break you.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b   Permalink 3:14 PM – 25 May 2017

@nntaleb If you want to make your children feel better, much better after losing a game of chess, show them Kasparov’s geopolitical tweets.https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/867822092762402816   Permalink 12:40 PM – 25 May 2017

@nntaleb Interventionistas: Nothing worse than dogs playing wolves pic.twitter.com/NvuKTtqdkO Permalink 6:58 AM – 25 May 2017

@nntaleb There is nothing more bewildering than dogs claiming to be wolves. pic.twitter.com/gzEtnyqpxi Permalink 5:32 AM – 25 May 2017

@nntaleb Thanks for the comments: I smoothed out the Prologue. Reposting for 3-4 hours. Ignore typos: interest is smoothness. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/SITG-Excerpts2.pdf   Permalink 4:40 AM – 25 May 2017

@nntaleb I’ve spent most of my life explaining/proving that Eastern Med != Middle East. Near East perhaps. Trump is right from intuition.https://twitter.com/yashar/status/866757128501035008   Permalink 6:23 PM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb So he defines “elderly” as a category that is old, but not… old? Find a person between 2 thresholds: old but not old, poor but not poor. Permalink 6:01 PM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb A “poor” “elderly” person has Medicaid & Medicare, for which we pay > 1.2 Trillion. If this fellow fooling himself?https://twitter.com/SteveRattner/status/867515245836857345   Permalink 5:55 PM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb In Lebanon, everyone I meet is thrilled abt @realDonaldTrump “stripping” the Saudis & asking me “why didn’t he make a stop in Qatar”? Permalink 5:39 PM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb Can someone answer his question? Eventually when you support Al Qaeda in Syria, it will come back to visit you in Manchester & … Foolshttps://twitter.com/ShehabiFares/status/867434742458839041   Permalink 5:24 PM – 24 May 2017

@EricRWeinstein SJWs targeting my brother Prof. @BretWeinstein pulled 1 video of their bullying as it went viral. So here’s another: https://www.facebook.com/blakub/videos/10212714974211358/  https://twitter.com/EricRWeinstein/status/867432790588923905   Permalink 2:39 PM – 24 May 2017

@bostoncakepan In “Antifragile,” @nntaleb shows that, empirically, university research is a terrible investment. Tinkerers discover things, not researchershttps://twitter.com/JunkScience/status/867378576030650373   Permalink 6:59 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb Note 1: What I am bring: languages follow a minority rule, genes a majority rule. (Linguists dont’ get it.)https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 6:04 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb 6 Maronites are indigenous of Mount Leb, religion migrated not pple (investigating oth groups) 7 Languages travel independent of genes Permalink 5:59 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb 4 Arabs did not settle in the coastal Levant 5 Data shows distinction between Canaanites & Hebrews, doesn’t contradict Biblical claims Permalink 5:53 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb 1 Phoenicians aren’t the “pple of the sea” 2 North Levant genetics heavily Greco-Iranian 3 Myth of Europa backed by Levant-Greek migrations Permalink 5:44 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb Science gives us a real map of roots, better than BS laden history (Salibi) or the fake-science called linguistics. 7 Myths abt Levant Permalink 5:40 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb Zalloua has 12K DNA samples, largest DB for Phoenicia. He just hired me as his data scientist for the Levant Project (unaware of my temper). pic.twitter.com/9pG7C5FpUV Permalink 5:34 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb BTW Fooled by Randomness was self-edited. Permalink 5:19 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb Don’t tell my publisher. I am posting the first 50 pages of SITG for 3-4 hours, for comment on readability/clarity. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/introSITG.pdf   Permalink 6:44 PM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb If you want more evidence that finance academics still don’t know that they are unfit.https://twitter.com/gkaram/status/867183614034890753   Permalink 6:02 PM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb An academic, even like Bernanke, lecturing about markets is like an assistant nail salon technician lecturing on brain surgery.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/867179616724807680   Permalink 5:51 PM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb The argument for federalism pic.twitter.com/8AkBClYZAi Permalink 5:40 PM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb Dershowitz is a liberal who thinks; immune ag the Trump Logical Hallucination Syndrome. http://www.theblaze.com/news/2017/05/20/alan-dershowitz-pulverizes-liberal-anti-trump-russia-theories-and-nearly-leaves-carlson-speechless/   via @chrisenloe @theblaze Permalink 5:15 PM – 23 May 2017

@EHSANI22 3-Law & Order has returned. Government services are back. #Aleppo residents now joke that the place looks like Switzerland in comparison Permalink 4:17 PM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb Evidence from Koura shows that genes of Christians are Greco-Anatolian. More TK Also Phoenicians & Assyrians were not “Semitic” by DNA, pic.twitter.com/4C6NL4vvLq Permalink 4:10 PM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb Here is the derivation for a,b,c>1, thanks to a plane ride to Northern Phoenicia pic.twitter.com/edB6S67N5G Permalink 3:23 PM – 23 May 2017

@GuruAnaerobic Suicide bombers: “Putting the skin on terrorists” from 6th May. @nntaleb @TRobinsonNewErahttps://medium.com/incerto/the-skin-of-others-in-your-game-3f51d8ccc3fb   Permalink 12:44 AM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb Hopefully it will help convince the administration it’s not Putin-Assad-Iran-Catherine the Great but Wahhabi grown stuff. Permalink 4:36 PM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb You can bet it’s not the Iranians just accused of suporting “terrorism”, but grown in some Saudi sponsored madrassah.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/866796747045179393   Permalink 4:28 PM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb No no no no nohttps://medium.com/incerto/where-you-cannot-generalize-from-knowledge-of-parts-continuation-to-the-minority-rule-ce96ca3c5739?source=linkShare-f138bf5466fe-1495482249   Permalink 12:44 PM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb On my way to Northern Phoenicia to work on final draft of #SkinInTheGame Planted ~300 olive trees. pic.twitter.com/UxS2RmlNAJ Permalink 11:56 AM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb Maltese has been successful in separating from Arabic. https://mt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lingwa_Maltija   Fawwato filmet franjieh xa liġton w bye7ko mitl ma byektbo Permalink 6:27 AM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb La’anno fi kilmet bil ṫ w bil ż w bil ḋ ma bitbayyin maxkun bi tari’tkun. Bass nazzel el font w bitcuf cu ahyan Permalink 6:22 AM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb Isocrates’ Dynamic #SkinInTheGame Conduct yourself toward your parents as you would have your children conduct themselves toward you Permalink 6:19 AM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb xam jarreb estaxmel hayda la’ktub liġitna xa tari’ LLL (cuf ‘llink taḣt wl fonts) Fi ‘lwaḣad ye’ra ceġle hayk? http://www.lebaneselanguage.org/lll-system/lebanese-latin-letters/   Permalink 6:38 PM – 21 May 2017

@RonPaul Many thanks to @zerohedge for picking up our Liberty Report interview with @nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-21/taleb-state-department-interventionistas-face-zero-risk-their-bad-decisions   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/HrxAsh9hCz”>  pic.twitter.com/HrxAsh9hCz Permalink 3:48 PM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb By the same fake-generalization, BS vendors try to portray the public as being “anti-expert” instead of being anti BS vendors. Permalink 3:04 PM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb Where the pseudo left prove that: they hate Trump more than they love Saudi Arabia. (Revelation of preferences)https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/866001274700955649   Permalink 12:56 PM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb As I just said:https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/866001274700955649   Permalink 12:17 PM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb Every time I bust a BS vendor his reaction is that I call “everyone else” an idiot. No, sorry Mr Nichols: BS vendor is BS vendor.https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/866355195168555008   Permalink 11:39 AM – 21 May 2017

@JohnMinehan1 Now, Let us re-tweet “Ceterum censeo Wahabistanem esse delendam.”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/866299308014010368   Permalink 7:59 AM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb But the main accomplishment of @realDonaldTrump’s trip is to rally his detractors against Saudi Barbaria. Now recite: “Delenda Wahabistan”. Permalink 7:27 AM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb Citing @davidgraeber on how Goldman Sachs is communist from within pic.twitter.com/9oflQxZwao Permalink 5:48 AM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb Expain to me why I shd read an “expert analysis” on “WHY TRUMP WON” by pple who thought it was impossible. #2ndOrder http://resources.hoover.org/why-trump-won/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=look1&utm_campaign=whytrumpwon   Permalink 5:03 AM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb The Saudis make @realDonaldTrump feel he is a king, while Washington & West make him feel he doesn’t belong. He now owes them something. Permalink 4:00 PM – 20 May 2017

@nntaleb What @realDonaldTrump is doing: sucking in the last $100 billion before the bankruptcy of SaudiBarbaria. If anything, cruel to the Saudis.https://twitter.com/OAmKorAr/status/865974737910079488   Permalink 10:21 AM – 20 May 2017

@nntaleb Interesting reading by Mercier and Sperber. “Smart”, i.e. SocietHarvardified pple are just better at explaining their hallucinations. pic.twitter.com/5JUYHvtjeY Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 May 2017

@nntaleb Cherrypicked analogies as hallucination aid. I wrote an entire book, Fooled by Randomness, 2001, on seeing mosques in the clouds.https://twitter.com/BeschlossDC/status/865660847670018048   Permalink 6:39 AM – 20 May 2017

@nntaleb I find puzzling that one needs to run & pay for, a study to figure out that journos become journos BECAUSE they have severe deficits.https://twitter.com/MDiPaolaMD/status/865728365617197056   Permalink 5:45 PM – 19 May 2017

@Cernovich They are gonna hate you anyway, @realDonaldTrump. Now is the time for boldness. Pardon Julian Assange / @wikileaks. #PardonJulian Permalink 2:28 PM – 19 May 2017

Antifragile Medicine, Las Vegas, Real World Risk, Status, Beirut Madinati, Commons, Ethics | Facebook


In Las Vegas at a conference, I explained fragility as nonlinearity:
mix a $2,000 bottle of wine with a $10 one. The 2 bottles will be worth less than $1,005 each.  5/12/16


Friends, our uberization of education is working, working. We intent to keep it at the artisanal level (no online stuff, no scaling) because we enjoy lecturing and want to keep enjoying the atmosphere. Artisanal is a way of being.

We added a quantitative certificate to the qualitative one we already have. The quantitative certificate is August 15-19 in Stony Brook. More advanced, deeper.

Note that the June 6-10 program has ~ 50 people registered. Note that we gave a certain number of scholarships (more than universities!)


Try to talk to a stranger without signaling your status and see how pleasant you will be to him/her.
This is how salespeople and con men operate. They make you crave their company because you do not feel threatened. 5/12/16


I’d rather live in a place where nothing appears to make sense but things work, rather than in a place where things make sense but don’t work. 5/9/16


If you are in Beirut, please vote for Beirut Madinati in Sunday’s municipal election. They are part of the recent worldwide movement to displace established rent seekers and increase governance.
As you can observe, not one of them is wearing a tie.

Note that, in a globalized world, municipal rule is central. We are inching back to the autonomous Phoenician city states.

PS- I do not vote in Beirut (I am registered in my ancestral village Amioun although my grandfather moved to Beirut in 1922).

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's photo.


The best definition of a commons: a space in which you are treated by others the way you treat them.

This continues the previous conversation and connects the commons to skin in the game and golden and silver rules. 5/5/15


What I picked up from Elinor Ostrom is that the private and the public are not the only two entities. There is something called a “commons” in between. As with any complex systems, people behave differently at a different scale. This explains why the municipal is different from the national. It also explains how tribes operate: you are part of a specific group that is larger than the narrow *you*, but narrower than humanity in general.

People share some things *but not others* withing a specified group. And there is a protocol for dealing with the outside. Arab pastoral tribes have firm rules of hospitality towards nonhostile strangers who don’t threaten their commons, but get violent when the stranger is a threat.

The “public good” is something abstract, taken out of a textbook. Everything abstract fails. To repeat, scale, rather than type of regime, is the prime explanation of the flop of communism.

PS – One of the themes in SKIN IN THE GAME is that the “individual” is ill-defined an entity. “Me” is more likely to be a group than a single person. Note that the scale transformation (a group doesn’t have the preferences of an individual) brings us to the flaw in the “selfish gene” theory, which was shown to be mathematically shody by E.O. Wilson and Nowak as well as Yaneer Bar-Yam. 5/3/16


You can very easily distinguish real philosophers and scientists from the CV-building, academic rat variety. The real thing tell you what they are *trying* to figure out, not what they *did* in past career. 4/30/16


Admonish your friends in private; praise them in public. And distrust anyone who does the reverse.

(Secrete amicos admone; lauda palam.) 4/28/16


Someone saying “ethics is good for success” is missing the entire point of ethics.  4/19/16


Added a page as public service (he will now leave me alone, this is to protect others, preserve the integrity of the system)
This is the minority rule: it takes only a few very very intolerant and tenacious people to make the system more honest.
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html  4/18/16


Friends, this is what I wrote in The Black Swan about rare events: they are very difficult to assess probabilistically. Not underpriced: hard to price, hence one should avoid being fragile to them. 4/15/16

Accordingly I have asked for a formal retraction of an article by Noah Smith (someone who has been spreading nonsense for years) and who apparently has not read the book.

Added a page:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's photo.