Benthem, Precautionary Principle, Monopoly, Bayer, Monsanto, Junk Statistics, Wolfers, Piffle | Twitter

@cfshoo You should be much more ashamed of things you didn’t say than you are of things you said. –Nassim Permalink 3:01 AM – 25 May 2016

@nntaleb Easier to get a job in trading/quant/risk if you are a cook than economist. Economists are for networking, gov/nonprofit nonRealWorld. Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 May 2016

@nntaleb Oil is stored solar energy; it is like a battery. The idea is to minimize storage. #RoyalColloquium2016 Permalink 2:51 AM – 25 May 2016

@EmanuelDerman More cleaning up. Lawrence Durrell on Permalink 12:17 PM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb Bentham and the notion of utility see by Marx. Permalink 11:40 PM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb Three intense days on the Precautionary Principle near Permalink 3:06 AM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb If you want to convince the other side that you won the argument, you have no argument. Permalink 2:26 PM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 4/4 From a long experience observing mergers, management of 1 of the companies is usually outsed; 1 side cashes out. So Agency Problem. Permalink 7:43 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 3/3: Re: Bayer-Monsanto: we have known robustly since 1986 that mergers create negative returns, largely a game by CEOs for own benefit. Permalink 7:41 AM – 23 May 2016

@CAM_SMlTH @nntaleb a good example of this at the moment with Australian supermarkets/dairy farmers and #milkmo   Permalink 7:24 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb Greater monopoly is typically suicide for corporations. @CAM_SMlTH Permalink 6:58 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb My betes noires: + MONSANTO – gone ? + SAUDI BARBARIA – on the way + HILLARY MONSANTO-MALMAISON + Economic Departments + GOLDMAN SACHS – Permalink 6:47 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Bayer, as far as I know, doesn’t engage in as vicious smear campaigns against scientists as Monsanto does. Permalink 6:27 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb So Monsanto is now dead. Bayer for all its ills cannot possibly be as unethical as Monsanto. Good riddance. Permalink 6:02 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb Historia du jour: Many Caliphs were half-Greek (Al-Wathiq, Al-Muntasir, Al-Mu3tadid) and Al-Muhtadi was 3/4 Permalink 5:49 PM – 22 May 2016

@Shinfu Madre mía la interpretación libre y mala que se hace a @nntaleb.   Permalink 1:46 PM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb So far the last example of interventionism with huge unwanted consequences…   Permalink 9:12 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb My co-author & I have data showing that Hedge Funds who blew up in 2007-8 were ~ those w/lowest daily volatility/highest Sharpe. @Sevens_2 Permalink 8:37 AM – 22 May 2016

@Chris_Liss @nntaleb FYI – quoted your prior tweet in a piece I wrote:   Permalink 8:30 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Mapping Antifragile/convexity for medical responses, as precisely and formally as possible Permalink 8:30 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 When I hear “data driven” I smell mistaking absence for evidence for evidence of absence, a la Pinker.   Permalink 8:27 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Bill Gates is not a risk scientist & not a logician;”data driven” meaningless for complex systems/hidden risks w/Turkey Problems @JonHaidt Permalink 8:23 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Bjorn Lomborg is a dangerous charlatan. If you keep him on campus you shd also have fortune tellers & palm readers.   Permalink 12:58 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Supreme rigor of the Russian school of probability: they dealt in inequalities not identities Permalink 2:30 PM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Clearly, Donaldo is not interventionist. Much of the rest, in foreign policy, becomes a detail.   Permalink 10:08 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Everything one does to hide intellectual dishonesty increases dishonesty. When caught lying, @amonck, confess. @Sartor1836 @WLTSchirano Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Liar Adrian Monck, when caught, kept changing the story “not in TBS”, “not in Chapter x”, “not on page x”, etc. @WLTSchirano @amonck Permalink 9:24 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb MD for “public engagement” @ Davos,Adrian Monck @amonck repeating “no ref to Popper” in T Black Swan. There are 53 mentions of Popper. Liar. Permalink 8:40 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb This tells you the author is a journo. Permalink 6:25 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Question: To become a mathematican 1- Work w/operators & functionals not just functions 2- in dual spaces 3- measure in proofs 4- what else? Permalink 5:31 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Same Joseph Stiglitz who said FNMAe had no chance of blowing up. Why we need to close econ departments & restart.   Permalink 5:24 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb It is not just a single tweet that will get Mr Wolfers in trouble #nontrivial … @MadBurry @JustinWolfers @HillaryClinton @bill_easterly Permalink 4:58 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb In probability space, how tail eventsmore effective for threshold dependent outcomes #Medicine @mjd1735 Permalink 4:55 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb How variability can me more effective/more economical @mjd1735 Permalink 4:29 AM – 21 May 2016

@wrathofgnon “Modernity: we created youth without heroism, age without wisdom, and life without grandeur.”— Nassim Nicholas Permalink 5:26 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb …unless you are running for office. Permalink 2:17 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Rule: never immediately attribute to terrorism what can more easily be first explained by incompetence.   Permalink 1:59 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb The Incerto as a Multidisciplinary project in Probability: how to figure out that things link Permalink 12:34 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb For more technical explanation why retire Standard Deviation   Permalink 11:21 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Formalizing #Antifragility in Medicine: Putting together stuff/making notation uniform for Permalink 8:56 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Statement “economics is abt making all of us better off” means “economics is abt making ALL economists [bureaucrats/empty suits] better off” Permalink 7:40 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Mark you are tooooo much in a hurry. Interesting things take some time. @GuruAnaerobic @JustinWolfers Permalink 5:28 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb When someone @justinwolfers living frm charitable contributions judges the knowledge of businessmen #skininthegame   Permalink 5:13 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Wolfers @JustinWolfers & I will soon have an entertaining (possibly one-sided) discussion of probability theory @theYoungerPitt Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Students saying “fat tails” instead of “cheese” at Permalink 3:34 PM – 19 May 2016

@nntaleb As predicted Donaldo having secured thenomination is now going for the left wing votes. Brilliant!   Permalink 6:23 PM – 18 May 2016

@nntaleb This fellow, it now transpired, also works for Monsanto. Explains methods in (failed) smear campaign against me.   Permalink 11:23 AM – 18 May 2016

@beachvetlbc Evidence is- there are NO HUMAN studies to support GMO safety claims & remaining animal studies don’t either @mindlessfunk @kevinfolta Permalink 3:29 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The full text is at   @RodBerne Permalink 2:45 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb A summary of our problem with the junk statistics of Permalink 2:40 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb I am not a UK taxpayer, so I cannot ethically voice an opinion for which I pay no price if wrong. #SkinintheGame   Permalink 2:08 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Looks like the Incerto is finally going to be ONE book (in one boxset)! Don’t tell my publisher I showed it! Permalink 2:00 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The Holy Roman Empire was 1) not Roman, 2) not Holy, and 3) not an Empire. @sevanslux Permalink 8:34 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The Roman Empire is centrally a Mediterranean culture, structure, way of being, etc. “Europe” is a much later thingy   Permalink 8:31 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb A clearer point of #Antifragile @mjd1735 Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Wolfers will soon discover that doing probability right is much much harder than it looks. @iMetaldog @JustinWolfers Permalink 7:23 AM – 17 May 2016

@ZbraPntedDonky @nntaleb @mpigliucci @PembertonT Whenever someone leads off “With I haven’t read the book but”, prepare for pretentious piffle. Permalink 4:57 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Pigliucci has the knee jerk reaction of the academic rat: dismiss w/o knowing. Not scholarly @ZbraPntedDonky @mpigliucci @PembertonT Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb It is in Diogenes Laertius (tons of references)   @mpigliucci strikes me as a rationalistic ignoramus @PembertonT Permalink 4:53 AM – 17 May 2016

@zerohedge Nassim Taleb’s “Shillary vs The Donald” Cheat Sheet   Permalink 4:20 PM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Dear Mr @JustinWolfers do your papers on betting/long shots take account of these biases? Couldn’t find.Thank Permalink 4:01 PM – 16 May 2016

@CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb Will this (lazy way) become a 21st century way? Permalink 11:27 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb If you believe that crank Falkenstein, here is something for you   @z31r4m @Napoleonlegal Permalink 8:42 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Latin du Jour: Where I discover that “asinus asinum fricat” (donkey rubs donkey)translates to “Salma quotes Sabrina”   Permalink 6:46 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/What I mean by rigorous is not making assumptions/ certainties when there is uncertainty. Shillary offers certainties, Trump fewer ones. Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Used a one-tailed dist for x @HarryhongHong Permalink 4:49 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb How we transfer from dose response to probability space. Param a controls fatness of tails. @mjd1735 Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Hillary and Bush have done the most to harm minority populations in the Levant & Iraq since Genghis Khan. @hopps3 Permalink 4:46 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Bernie v. Trump I go Bernie because his domestic policies won’t go through and his foreign policies are clearer @BoustanyMazen Permalink 3:39 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Comparing outcomes and foreign policy for Trump vs Hillary in a more rigorous Permalink 3:20 PM – 15 May 2016

@GuruAnaerobic @nntaleb Press hav just done this with Boris Johnson – “Boris has compared EU to Hitler!”. Yet this is what he Permalink 1:02 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb We need @holland_tom: From Caesar to Herakles Rome had 7 full centuries of domination of Med, vs ~100 y as a Republic @JohnMinehan1 Permalink 11:34 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb So, Charlatan Noah @Noahpinion, sorry, but web won’t be a hospitable place for strawmanning/intellectual dishonesty.   Permalink 10:09 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Tactic by journos: catch them committing straw man they gang up strawman more portraying you “thin skinned”, as this imbecile @TimOBrien Permalink 9:18 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb How Journos are marketing Permalink 8:09 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb This summarizes how we can introduce a formal view of fragility in Medicine. Any comments? Permalink 7:04 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb 3) If I had to pick the persons in power the most ignorant of complexity/interactions: Henry Kissinger & Hillary Clinton-Monsanto-Malmaison Permalink 8:22 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb 2) I am not saying the US needs an emperor, I am saying the US to stay a true republic should be noninterventionist.   Permalink 8:20 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Fact du jour: Rome was the dominant empire & a republic for a short period, 3rd punic war to Rubicon ~90 years. Permalink 8:15 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Sorry. Blocking was done automatically when the PR firm Ketchum was harrassing me; all followers of blocked were autoblocked. @Chris_arnade Permalink 7:14 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Surviving traders can think clearly. Others I am never sure except when I see the math/formal reasoning. Skin in the game. @learnfromerror Permalink 6:30 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb This guy has an admirable behavior: he hates my guts & I blocked him. He should be a trader if he isn’t one already.   Permalink 5:32 PM – 14 May 2016

@AmuseChimp would @Noahpinion be as much of a bullshitter if duels still existed? Permalink 5:12 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Lost all respect for Petraeus: at SALT he said wem shd be forgiving w/SaudiBabaria re 9/11 as “an ally”. Bureaucrats are Morally Nauseating. Permalink 5:12 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb The point is not just the 28 pages linking to Saudi Barbaria, it is what has been taking place SINCE then.   Permalink 5:09 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Retribution should be rare, but when you do it, go for the jugular.   Permalink 5:04 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Five hours left to vote on how to deal with Charlatan Noah Smith @Noahpinion   Permalink 12:44 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb This is exactly what I meant. @markmadsen Permalink 10:20 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Central limit works slowly in the real world:   @urcum62 Permalink 7:39 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Central limit works very slowly for finite variance infinite higher moments such as cubic @urcum62 Permalink 7:37 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb I never threated. I act first as with Charlatan @noahpinion then threaten when finished. @Fight_Whisperer Permalink 7:28 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb A generalized sigmoid curve for dose-response in Medicine. Has anyone seen such generalization in lit? Permalink 6:55 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony rarely reacts but when he does so he makes up for it and never stops until the fellows goes into hiding @PaulSkallas @Noahpinion Permalink 6:34 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb If Charlatan Noah Smith @noahpinion smears again   I should expose him with what multiplier? Permalink 6:24 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Balkanization works Balkanization stabilizes Balkanization reduces oppression of minorities @yaneerbaryam @WLTSchirano @joshua_landis Permalink 2:54 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Remember: Turks killed more minorities after their “Westernization” than pripr. Modernism. @davefobare @GrkStav @yaneerbaryam @joshua_landis Permalink 2:08 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Secularism failed in the Levant & Turkey. Best to do an @yaneerbaryam “better fences make better neighbors”. Decentralize! @joshua_landis Permalink 1:48 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb If you smell what I smell there are 17 million Alevis in Turkey. Trad they conceal their faith. So expect more…   Permalink 1:29 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Question: Do non-initially convex dose-response functions exist in nature? #Medicine #Antifragile Permalink 12:34 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Second edition of The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 8:33 AM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Solution to the Gibrat vs Mandelbrot problem: When bounded, locally power laws have lognormal tails.   @financequant Permalink 7:28 AM – 13 May 2016

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