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Ioannidis, Tetlock, Summers, Masks, Oil, Russian Roulette, Astrology

From the Convexity of Masks to No-Convexity Ben | Youtube
Published on Apr 24, 2020
+ Why the crisiss was not a Black Swan.
+ Masks compound (even if primitive)
+ Convexity Ben misleads with his “hedges”

Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases (pdf 4/18/2020)

(Anti)Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicine (pdf 7/31/2018)

The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System | NewYorker

As Taleb told me, “The great danger has always been too much connectivity.” Proliferating global networks, both physical and virtual, inevitably incorporate more fat-tail risks into a more interdependent and “fragile” system: not only risks such as pathogens but also computer viruses, or the hacking of information networks, or reckless budgetary management by financial institutions or state governments, or spectacular acts of terror. Any negative event along these lines can create a rolling, widening collapse—a true black swan—in the same way that the failure of a single transformer can collapse an electricity grid.

Taleb: The Only Man Who Has A Clue | NakedCapitalism

Tutorial: Simple trick to see the effect of power laws | Youtube
Published on Apr 19, 2020
A simple tutorial explaining how, in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution becomes noise.
Once you establish that a variable is in the power law class, some necessary consequences come out.
To debunk that history is dominated by tail events, you must show it does not follow a power law.

@nntaleb So we can infer that the rate of growth is NOT Gaussian, must be in the borderline subexponential class. r can be negative of course. Permalink 12:54 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 12:42 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Math Du Jour: What is the Distribution of Pandemics if the rate of growth follows an exponential distribution with mean 1/\lambda? Explains very simply the result with @DrCirillo Permalink 12:38 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is the kind of crap dichotomy you hear, as if 1) letting the virus run wild would not kill the economy 2) It is the government that is closing the economy, not pple A segment of libertarians/conservatives have a reasoning defect as they think in binary & static labels.   Permalink 8:41 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb So far, by substitution Permalink 8:24 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is a mathematical problem, only for those into math. I block cute comments that are not helpful & distract the readers. Permalink 7:42 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Quarantine workout Permalink 6:51 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Larry Summers, advisor? Aside from his hideous track record, Summers was fiercely AGAINST putting skin in the game of decision makers. He even managed to transform my claim that it was “necessary” into “sufficient” & argued on that basis.   Permalink 4:51 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Foreseen by @barabasi   Permalink 2:35 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@urcum62 Angela Merkel truly understands the Covid dynamics and the Math behind it. She also understands the diffucilties associated with low probabilities. #AngelaMerkel   Permalink 5:37 PM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Looks like the govmt is hiring Kroll to investigate #RiadPonzi’s books. Kroll specializes in FRAUD, tracking transfers, etc. Permalink 12:29 PM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Add this to the list   Permalink 10:22 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Lebanon: #RiadPonzi Salameh is the most destructive central banker in history. He managed to stick to power for ~30 y through 10 governmnets. He is now trying to make it political. No, it is not because Hezb hates him that he is suddenly competent, honest, & principled. #Lebanon Permalink 10:11 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From the Convexity of Masks to Convexity Ben   via @YouTube Permalink 8:23 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb|twitter&par=sharebar   Permalink 7:39 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The point is not whether it works or not (it may); it is just irresponsible to gamble with citizens under such opacity.   Permalink 6:53 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@hjluks Sarcopenia should be a four-lettered word … If you’re over 40 it’s happening as you read this :-( . So much badness comes from a lack of muscle mass. So much goodness comes from improving your muscle mass.   Permalink 6:32 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@Monsantobuster Best summary, Prof @nntaleb   Permalink 3:06 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@vibinbaburajan [Thread] Nassim Taleb’s 17 best one-line wisdom. @nntalebbot @nntaleb @TalebWisdom 1. The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary. Permalink 2:24 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Chi mangia solo, muore solo.   Permalink 5:40 PM – 23 Apr 2020

@DavidSalazarVir Trying to get my head around fat-tails by studying @nntaleb’s latest technical book. Replicated some plots in #rstats #tidyverse   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:41 PM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I was expecting the #Lindy activists to dig out mask-wearing practices in history. For instance, the Tuareg berber tribes: men wore masks. Permalink 10:53 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Emanuel Derman (who knows something about probability) exposing the dangerous BS by Phil the Rat @PTetlock –whose knowledge of probability is way too primitive.   Permalink 9:26 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo “Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases” using Extreme Value Theory. Advice by non EVT-trained epidemiologists concerning COVID-19th tail risks is no different from advice by a carpenter concerning complex odds at roulette tables.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:20 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From my dispute w/ #NoConvexityBen Meng from CALPERS (currently) largest fund on planet PRINCIPLE: Thou Shalt Not compare convex payoffs (w/ tiny downside) to linear ones (w/yuuge downside). More Basic: Thou Shalt Not Call speculative trades “hedges”.   Permalink 5:04 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The safest policy is to act as if we had NO idea about the consequences of this.   Permalink 2:41 PM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb People are interested in masks & testing. Not in geopolitics (except on the weekend). Not in spending trillions on nuclear weapons when we can’t even get N95 masks.   Permalink 10:59 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb   Permalink 10:34 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Gambling by governments is irresponsible, even if the result turns out to be favorable. Permalink 10:25 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Our security = testing incoming passengers at JFK, not where trillions were spent: building yuuuge capabilities against very weak nations. Where are the tests? Where are the masks? Spending trillions (literally) because governments don’t understand the real sources of risk.   Permalink 8:41 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paulina N is correct to emphasize the death toll. But it will be much higher as you must integrate future deaths at rate. Also missing morbidity: % of survivors end up with permanent lung & other damage. Finally, even if Sw ends up ahead (it won’t), the move is not responsible.   Permalink 7:33 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Reduced connectivity Masks Culturally, precaution is respected   Permalink 4:29 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Bachelier was right.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 4:23 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb New hobby thanks to lockdown: Olympic lifts   Permalink 3:17 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom Here is one of my favorite @nntaleb quotes: “Don’t cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.” Permalink 1:37 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Joe is good. Very good. Should we start calling him “Sherlock Shipman”?   Permalink 3:39 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb LINDY Quarantine & restriction of mobility are Lindy; they are present in the old testament & in Islam: “If you’re away, & disease breaks out, you stay there. If home, you stay home.”   Permalink 2:19 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@DrAmithaMD Waited for this… such a good analysis on whether #COVID19 was a rare event (it was, but we ignored the signs). “The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System” @nntaleb   via @NewYorker @bavishai Permalink 12:09 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@joe_shipman STATISTICAL INFERENCE PUZZLE @nntaleb Is “2 false positives in 401 trials” consistent with “50 false positives in 3300 trials”? What is a good null hypothesis, and what is the p-value? Permalink 8:05 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Actually slight modification to the great results by “Johnny evidence” Ioannidis. You don’t need Jensen to prove the inequality Permalink 6:51 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The Trump Administration is suspending immigration owing to the Corovirus pandemic after discovering the interesting epidemiological property that (documented) immigrants are highly infectious, but tourists & business visitors are not. Permalink 6:48 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Another grave error in the “Johnny evidence” Ioannidis & friends paper, not too dissimilar to Simpson’s paradox, (also spotted by @gian_rinaldi, private communication): They don’t get the convexity of divisions. If a result doesn’t make sense & comes from nerds, it is wrong.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:37 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@ishirubi Ok I can go rest in peace now: Permalink 3:43 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) This is from Dynamic Hedging (1997), with a discussion of fungibility and first deliverable contract. Permalink 12:43 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Oil: The basis is out of whack because of storage. It is like being stuck in traffic in a Bentley, and no possibility of leaving it so you need to pay someone to take it from you. Permalink 12:30 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@paulanawfal من كم شهر رحت لأحضر ندوة ل @nntaleb بالجامعة اليسوعية وما كان في وسعى مبارح حضرت الإعادة وهيدا المقطع هو المفضل الي بالندوة #RamsusRiad Permalink 12:02 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Every #RWRI we discuss the situation how *oil above ground* (hence the front oil future) can sqeeze suckers and have a negative value because it can be impossible to store during a glut and impossible to abandon because of EPA. Negative optionality from liability.   Permalink 11:56 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #protectyourpension #CalPERS #tailrisk #tailhedge   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 9:51 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2015: When people ask me to talk about RISK, I talk about epidemics. Not ISIS, not journalistic BS. [I lost weight and increased by Max DL by 100 lbs since]   via @YouTube Permalink 9:08 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Sorry, I meant he doesn’t get that car accidents are not multiplicative. IOANNIDIS: Here we have someone doing probability & lecturing people on probability errors who like this ignorant Phil the rat Tetlock @PTetlock has never heard of Chernoff bounds. Permalink 7:54 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb John Ioannidis, in his argumentation, reasoning, and demeanor reminds me of what we call “a pre-blown up trader”. He doesn’t get (among other things) that driving 9 to 415 miles is not multiplicative and CONTAGIOUS.   Permalink 7:47 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is a statistical signal abt HQN to ADDRESS even if Zelenko, like Raoult, doesn’t look like Dr. Could be: samples of large “anecdotes” are biased, or NY & Marseilles hide the dead. Note that the media DOES NOT require a double blind for Gilead. Explain the dual standards.   Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@balajis Just-the-flu journalists failed across the board. That includes Fox, and the NYT reporter now denouncing Fox. Permalink 3:16 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Compare the richest countries, such as Sweden, making a “tradoff” (which is not even a tradeoff anyway) compared to much poorer places in the East Med, India, or China that wouldn’t even remotely consider a Faustian bargain. Shame. Wealth brings moral degeneracy. Permalink 2:25 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb GERONTICIDE is the sign of moral decay. Indian official explained only “rich” countries make a tradeoff betw lives & “economy” (assuming they are separable). The argument of “lockdown costing lives” is bunk: in the poor country, India, ~nobody starved. The richer, the worse!!! Permalink 1:30 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb People are starting to understand stuff. It took a pandemic for that. I never never dreamed that my Russian Roulette argument would be expressed by those against whom I have used it over the past 2 decades. Permalink 10:57 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb A simple tutorial explaining how, in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution is NOISE.   Permalink 10:04 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo on the Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases. Explains our attitude towards the disease; why epidemiological models are largely NOISE.   Permalink 8:01 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rats will also be liars. “Phil the rat” @PTetlock is misrepresenting the reason I call him a rat. It is for spending years trying to publicly discredit our concern for tail payoff, ergodicity w/o a slightest clue abt the statistical implication of power laws, even probability. Permalink 7:06 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Solution. This friend of mine found the trick. If there is (cc) on Youtube you can see both the subtitles in the original language and the transcript in English. Permalink 4:19 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Add: the IYI was wrong on masks, mobility, multiplicative risks, etc.   Permalink 4:02 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Alternative explanations are 1) ouzo (what we call in the Levant “the milk of lions”), 2) Orthodoxy: Unlike Spain, Greece celebrates Easter on the correct calendar, 3) Greek coffee (a.k.a. Turkish). Otherwise quite convincing.   Permalink 3:20 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@SrinivasR1729 Go down deep enough into anything and you will find mathematics. Permalink 12:12 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Permalink 4:56 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Learned to cook linguini with squid ink. Who needs restaurants when you have 1) internet access, 2) good olive oil, 3) really fresh garlic & parsley, 4) fresh tomatoes, 5) good white wine, 6) salt, etc. Permalink 4:53 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Currently people testing positive (or presumptive positive) are sent home to infect their families. Where is the outrage? There should be other options so that families will be safe. Every community, state and country, should have a “Safe Family” program. Permalink 4:23 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, this friend of mine wants to watch a Greek movie with both Greek and English subtitles. Netflix can do it in other languages, not Greek (he is based in the US). Is there a way to do it? Permalink 3:55 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Χριστός Ανέστη ! Permalink 11:11 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@artemon Seems like a great case of absence of evidence being treated like evidence of absence, plus violating the precautionary principle. Thank you @nntaleb for teaching me to see these clearly.   Permalink 10:35 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nobody realized that for Lebanon, Greece, Cyprus, & Marseilles, the real reason of the low rate of Corona infections/fatalities is the arak/ouzo/pastis. Experiments show you need to drink it during & before every meal for it to be effective. And try the purest you can find. Permalink 8:48 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Bravo #Lebanon. Early paranoia pays! Permalink 4:47 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb What is behind, among others, the moniker “Phil the rat” @PTetlock.   Permalink 4:39 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “The intellectshual world is populated by a collection of people who are much better at explaining than understanding.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 4:19 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@berndschiffer And also @nntaleb ‘s “new kind of ingratitude” comes to mind. “Who is more valuable, the politician who avoids a war or the one who starts a new one (and is lucky enough to win)?” #COVID19Aus #COVID Permalink 3:11 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@uair01 Nice picture of extremistan versus mediocristan mortality and why ” Covid is different: @nntaleb @trishankkarthik   Permalink 7:40 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@stevenstrogatz Yes, @nntaleb practices what he preaches. On the day we met, he walked me around New York for seven hours and enjoyed a plate of pasta with squid ink.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:28 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Drowning in swimming pools is extremely contagious and multiplicative.   Permalink 4:19 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@nntaleb HITS THE SPOT: “What is happening right now is not because all the epidemiologists & virologists around the world are wrong, but because they’re asked to make decisons and construct models about something they don’t know nearly enough about.”   Permalink 5:23 PM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb OK, OK. Thanks @yvessmith   Permalink 11:57 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: In Judeo-Arabic Baghdad seems to be spelled בגדד not בעדד(with a gimmel not a ghayn) (unlike more historical غزة-> עזה or Gomorrah עֲמֹרָה not גמֹרָה from transliteration Γομορραν) (pharyngeal [ʕ] not epiglottal [ʢ.) When was the غ lost in Hebrew? Permalink 10:50 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Why you cannot use epidemiological models with point estimates when variables are stochastic. An illustration. You end up with a crazy distribution of outcomes, get fooled. This is our problem with the UK “model”. Permalink 9:36 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is potentially yuuuuge. Do not miss.   Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I don’t know if he (and those liking the graph) realize that an R-squared of .15 means, if you look at it generously, that almost all the variance is for random reasons, something like ~98% (conventional) or (entropy) >99.9%. @salilstatistics   Permalink 4:52 AM – 14 Apr 2020

@Jac5Connor Nassim asks an important question: Do masks cause earthquakes? I bet this is why the WHO took so long to recommend them.   Permalink 1:14 PM – 13 Apr 2020

@gernelle «Une catégorie de personnes ne cesse d’augmenter(…) plus douées pour expliquer que pour comprendre. Ou plus douées pour expliquer que pour faire.” ⁦@nntaleb⁩ cité par ⁦@sebastienlefol⁩ dans un édito percutant #covid ⁦@LePoint⁩   Permalink 11:40 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Just explained in a lecture that risk management and “science” are not the same thing. Risk is about asymmetries. With .1% error rate, few flight attendants would be alive. Permalink 7:14 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Do not conflate doing science and being nice and polite to scientists. Permalink 3:54 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, another robust question to get the convexity. How many people contracted COVID while wearing surgical masks? How many w/N95? How many with cowboy scarves? (Assume for now homogeneity. We are looking for convexity, not measurement). Permalink 7:13 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb We have a hint: @dzviovich just sent me something useful: comparison of US vs CZ w/a single sign. difference: edict to wear maks. We know masks work (from other combined statistical signals). Now let’s back up the convexity of probability of infection to particle concentration. Permalink 7:06 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb We need to get the probability of getting sick at different concentration of droplets. We could probably back it up (or get a handle on the convexity) from country data (Czech republic). Intuition: reduction of 70% of particles is yuuuge: home masks should work. Plus if 2-way! Permalink 6:53 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb There is something about “ceteris paribus” (everything else being constant) for a marginal property that commentators are not getting. Permalink 5:36 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@spwells An excerpt from my interview with @VanceCrowe discussing why the Coronavirus pandemic isn’t a black swan event. @nntaleb   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 5:26 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The answer is by @Physical_Prep which maps to the 2/3 scaling exponent found by Geoffrey West. It depends on your level of course as you can see.   Permalink 4:45 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb WEIGHTLIFTING Friends, for every additional 10lbs of say deadlift how many additional pounds of muscle mass would be gained? Approximately of course. Permalink 3:07 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I’ve lost weight since.   Permalink 2:26 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@normonics John Conway lost to coronavirus. That is terrible news. Conway’s game of life is something I always show at #RWRI. NEVER fails to make the floating lightbulbs above everyone’s heads spark on. RIP   Permalink 1:54 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday! And, to those on the non-Orthodox calendar, Happy Easter! Permalink 7:12 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb That’s for an individual. If everyone wore *VERY BAD* masks, I guess the number of deaths would drop by a yuuuge factor, maybe 90%. Why? p is probability of infection, look at 1-p^n because everyone is reducing. For 2 pple masks act a 2-way filter, 1-p^2. Yuuge. Permalink 4:44 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The proof is in   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:30 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb MASKS One comment about masks and nonlinearities that these imbeciles are not getting. Reducing exposure to viruses by 30% thanks to an “imperfect” mask does not mean reducing risk of contracting the disease by just 30%. By convexity, it must be more than 30%, can even be 95%. Permalink 4:22 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Treading *absence of evidence* as *evidence of absence* is a form of overoptimization. Permalink 3:52 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@joe_shipman   This is an very evil article. It may not be apparent at first why I make such a serious charge. But I stand by it. It is viciously slanted with sophistical language and manipulative presentation, even though the truth can be discerned anyway. @nntaleb Permalink 7:21 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb and… the NYT and science journos and ignorant “evidence based” epidemiologists who can’t read absence of evidence got us here. Don’t blame mayors who shut down cities, blame misinformation about masks and mobility. Blame the New York Times. Permalink 6:49 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb It’s not the reaction that wrecked the economy. It’s the LACK of INITIAL reaction that wrecked the economy. Proper border controls on Jan 26, plus masks & tests & we’d be fine now. The @CDC, @WHO, UK Gov helped spread disinformation. After 3 m, still no masks & tests!!! Permalink 6:38 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Correction: Does Big Pharma own the media? Permalink 3:22 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Chloroquine: Does Big Pharma owns the media? + Studies are said to be “not rigorous” when it comes to Chloroquine in spite of robust statistical signal + Studies w/less rigor and significance are promoted when it comes to drugs by Gilead Note: Chl was OTC, costs 1 Euro a pack. Permalink 3:19 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Managed to sneak in 2 footnotes for my new book related to COVID before the printing starts.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:57 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The best therapy; lowers our anxiety and helps organize our minds while facing mild uncertainty. Aesthetic and harmless; unlike economics and social “science”. Discussed in #FooledbyRandomness   Permalink 11:34 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@birdxi1988 This is how @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam and @normonics ‘s Precautionary Principle destroys the evidence-based practices. In January, they specifically warned that the estimated R0 would be biased downwards. Guess what, CDC says that R0 appears to be 5.7 vs. 2.2-2.7 previously thought! Permalink 11:26 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@davidsarac What Nassim Nicholas Taleb is showing us by his persistent rudeness is that things one is ready to be rude about are worthy of understanding too In terms of evolutionary dynamics, it is a cry of the bird warning other birds predator is approaching Permalink 10:54 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb More elegant. It is hard to live on a planet where the most cited person in epidemiology, John Ioannidis, doesn’t understand exponential, hence multiplication. Yet he tries to make policy. Permalink 8:57 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Wrong. Levantine coast had 5 additional Greek areas. Plus Berytus and Baalbeck spoke mainly Latin owing to Law school and Roman resettlements.   Permalink 7:43 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb John Ioannidis does not get that model uncertainty WORSENS possible outcomes under exponential growth & should lead to MORE reaction. Dangerous ignorance. Here is a derivation from Jensen’s ineq. Permalink 7:26 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@pierrewaters Localism & mafia: news the @nntaleb crew will like:   Permalink 5:28 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “Some people are so foolish that they only get answers right when they misunderstand the question.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 5:18 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@mikeharrisNY Their logic and yours is wrong. Because doors sometimes fail to stop thieves, does it mean we should not have doors? Is this what is proposed? Can someone be so dump? Apparently, yes. Permalink 1:59 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rightwing sociopathic quacks like @BjornLomborg: are ALWAYS on the wrong side of things precautionary, (including climate). Saying “no worse than the flu” was ignorant 3 months ago; saying it after data from the past few weeks is outright malfeasance. @Twitter blocks fakenews.   Permalink 4:02 PM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From @RupertRead: states that Precautionary Principle applies ONLY to specific multiplicative things/power law call with alpha<2 Beware misinformaiton by frauds such as the rat @PTetlock & shill @Dgardner making it look like undirected paranoia (Martians invading the planet). Permalink 12:15 PM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Very encouraging to see young Lebanese from all backgrounds attacking the shill #MarcelGhanem for making an antisemitic remark. Things have changed!   Permalink 11:53 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Everyone must see!!!   Permalink 11:23 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@BrankoMilan Indeed, after every seasonal flu, NYC does mass graves… How can people write such easily contradicted things is beyond me to understand.   Permalink 10:42 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Many solutions, mostly @SrinivasR1729 This tidies the whole “ting”. Permalink 10:40 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@eassily Hah ! @nntaleb and @byzantinepower would appreciate this Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Weekend distraction. By @SrinivasR1729 Permalink 5:01 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The best part about this is that I can walk in the park without being asked for a selfie (or an autograph) by a graduate student in computer science at the local university.   Permalink 3:16 PM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Yes, office transmission is much much much more controlled than cross-geographical superspreaders.   Permalink 1:01 PM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, real heroes. And criminal neglect by risk-blind “evidence based” bureaucrats. And, friends, in the meanwhile, wear a mask. Again, than you all the Dr Chowdhurys.   Permalink 11:09 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Serious business (weight trainining): Friends (@GrantSSC & others), how long, after a *true* 5RM or 1RM deadlift (meaning you can’t redo it right away), does it take to recover at 100% and redo it? 20 minutes? 4 hours? 3 days? Permalink 9:30 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Fat tails. Reduce superspreaders.   Permalink 9:01 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@cdipaola62 @Judgenap thoughts on prospect of class action lawsuits against hospitals/health systems? Will the nurse’s unions put pressure on in other ways? Interested in your opinion. @nntaleb @CalNurses @MassNurses   Permalink 5:25 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Most “evidence based” IYIs use statistical tools they don’t understand AND are deprived of the logical faculties of grandmothers, which explains the explosive blunders of @WHO, “science” journos, @CassSunstein, @R_Thaler, idiots like @PTetlock the rat, etc.   Permalink 5:09 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb FAT TAIL PROPERTY 90-98% of the diffusion can be reduced by limiting superspreaders & forcing masks: + Subways/buses + Conferences (especially involving psychologists/behavioral economists) + Planes + Elevators + Bars with bad Negronis + Indoor restaurants/cafés Rest is normal.   Permalink 5:42 PM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Statistically, you should see much more of this. The system imposes some #Skininthegame: those who inflict risks on others are subjected themselves to the same risks. As with Boris. Sad.   via @nypost Permalink 1:45 PM – 8 Apr 2020

@mncube This is how @nntaleb trades   Permalink 11:17 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb And Mr @david_perell if you need ancestry for my version of “skin in the game”, you don’t go up to Steve Jobs. Try harder and deeper into history: Hammurabi, >3750 years ago. Permalink 11:15 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nice try, @david_perell He is using the term “skin in the game” as incentive not as risk asymmetry (be responsible for the harm you do). Try again.   Permalink 11:13 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR February in Chr Aramaic is Shbat,ܫܒܳܛ, “blows” from ” רוח נשבת” (the wind blows, original Accadian Šabātu) hence “windy month”. (Others were ~Babylonian gods). Remarkably the French Revolution renamed “Ventôse” (windy month) the span from Feb ~19-March 19. Permalink 6:58 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@mikeandallie Adding to the prior retweet to say that Nassim’s 2019 paper linked below plus the recent work of @ole_b_peters and @alex_adamou on ergodicity economics have been hugely influential to me not just in thinking about option pricing, but thinking about long-dated risk generally.   Permalink 6:23 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb You did not need recent events to get that the mean-variance based methods, along with RISK PARITY used in finance (by many funds) are a fraud. I explained the details in #TheBlackSwan See paper how we (my friends & I) price options under power laws.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:16 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb In a hospital if you are dealing with patients. But in social life you don’t have the exposure and, critically, BOTH have masks.   Permalink 4:59 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Asymmetry. Never bail out without clawback.   Permalink 4:13 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I revealed it at the USJ lecture last November, from data from (among others) Toufic Gaspard (live on national TV). #RiadPonzi then launched a smear campaign.   Permalink 4:04 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@GMWatch Powerful condemnation of the UK govt’s failure to follow the #PrecautionaryPrinciple over #COVID19 — by UEA professor @RupertRead, who together with @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @normonics & others, has for months repeatedly been demanding precautionary action to save lives.   Permalink 3:41 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3)Other fallacy is by the *tradeoff idiots* who don’t get: a) even if governments did nothing, airplanes & restaurants would be bust by now as # pple are doing bottom-up quarantines b)hospitals would be overwhelmed c)millions of young sick (many w/permanent damage) d)+uncertainty Permalink 5:45 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2) I meant don’t treat your parents the way you don’t want *your children* to treat you! Actually the “triage” (sacrificing the old) is a new European thing introduced in Italy; Roman society worshiped & protected the elders. Same with Eastern societies. (Senatus=Sheikh=elder). Permalink 5:17 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Aside from the pathetic modeling behind the “herd immunity”: it is morally repulsive. Civilization RESIDES in the enforcement of intergenerational golden (actuallly, silver rules): don’t treat your parents the way you don’t want them to treat you! From #SkinInTheGame #Incerto Permalink 5:11 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@spwells Spread of the Olive Tree in the Mediterranean Basin ⁦@PZalloua⁩ ⁦@nntaleb⁩   Permalink 11:25 AM – 7 Apr 2020

Sue, @WHO, NYT, LOCALISM, Chloroquine, Asymmetry, Masks, Branson, @CassSunstein, Superforecasters, De Blasio

The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Universa Inv. & NYU Tandon)

Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You
(With Mark Spitznagel)

Why should we spend taxpayer money to bailout companies who spent their cash (and often even borrowed to generate that cash) to buy their own stock (so the CEO gets optionality), instead of building a rainy day buffer? Such bailouts punish those who acted conservatively and harms them in the long run, favoring the fool and the rent-seeker.

Die Corona-Pandemie ist kein schwarzer Schwan: Warum 2020 nach Nassim Taleb nicht mit 2008 zu vergleichen ist


@nntaleb Flooded by journo/TV/podcts to talk abt #BlackSwan My business is research/writing, not conversing w/ bullshitters; they shd read my books… & tweets! Harari has a staff of 12 handling stuff. Me: staff of 0, but email robot deletes interview requests not from friends. Gabish? Permalink 10:12 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The legal system will fix the problem. Sue owners (private equity funds) & managers for knowingly endangering your life.   Permalink 9:44 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The argument by the @WHO imbeciles & journo fellow travelers that masks “can give a false sense of security” is interesting. Let’s apply it to: +seat belts +airbags +helmets +door locks +condoms +circuit breakers +parachutes +bulletproof vests +fire alarms +scholomorochs … Permalink 9:17 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The argument by the @WHO imbeciles & journo fellow travelers that masks “can give a false sense of security” is interesting. Let’s apply it to: +seat belts +airbags +helmets +door locks +condoms +circuit breakers +parachutes +bulletproof vests +fire alarms +scholomorochs … Permalink 9:17 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb As I said, the problem we face is “science” journalism. A real problem. #AbsenceofEvidenceisNotEvidenceofAbsenceParticularlyUnderRiskAsymmetries   Permalink 8:05 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Something tells me the quarantine might last longer than planned. Permalink 4:50 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Levantine is not Arabic Permalink 7:08 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I can provide some training if you need, @NAChristakis. God (or evolution) invented curse words for a reason.   Permalink 6:55 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Idiots! Scientism kills pple’s innate reasoning abilities & survival instinct You don’t wear a mask jus because you have evidence that transmission is airborne. You wear a mask because YOU DON’T KNOW whether transmission is airborne. #Asymmetry.   Permalink 6:22 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) Il faut arrêter de me casser les pieds! Marseille, en anglais, s’écrit avec un s. Permalink 3:18 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@PaulSkallas he ended up deleting the tweet Permalink 1:36 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2/ I wrote this for Mike’s children for them to understand statistical significance, something Bloomberg, Forbes, NYT journalists are not getting yet spreading confusion. So unless they cook their numbers in Marseilles, there is preliminary significance.   Permalink 12:43 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@ejajo Written in 2016, happening now: “They can thus cause monstrous iatrogenics[1] without even feeling a shade of a guilt, because they are convinced that they mean well and that they can be thus justified to ignore the deep effect on reality.” [1] Harm done by the healer. #IYI Permalink 12:33 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Not surprising given my analysis of the Marseilles data (see tweet w/the Mathematica file). The question is how large the effect. Also why the smear campaign ag. Raoult? OK, he’s the most cited virologist who talks on TV like a TV healer; doesn’t help.   Permalink 12:21 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@BiruniKhorasan According to all accounts, Ibn Sina did not suffer fools. The more I read about him, the more he reminds me of @nntaleb If Ibn Sina lived in 2020 and had an encounter with a fool on Twitter, he would first call him “idiot” and then block him. 100% positive. Permalink 12:01 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I a preparing an elementary thread on what risk management means and how “evidence based” is often endangering people. Permalink 10:39 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb In by forthcoming book The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails Permalink 10:26 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The IYI has a copy of The Black Swan on his shelves but mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence. (article from 3 ½ years ago)   Permalink 9:36 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The “evidence based” idiots such as Ioannidis not getting absence of evidence vs evidence of absence in the risk domain.   via @YouTube Permalink 8:19 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb That NYT? +Ran articles about irrationality of worrying about the pandemic +Opposed the travel ban +Now blaming the administration for not having stiffer travel ban   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:25 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Criminally stupid.   Permalink 4:15 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “Evidence based” means that she recommended in her Forbes column in late February that people wear no masks. Yes, NO masks. Because absence of evidence is not evidence based. It is hard to share the planet with such dangerous people.   Permalink 4:31 PM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Good news from Lebanon. This is the cabinet meeting in early March (when Boris & Trump had their full mugs exposed). They acted quickly. They have <20 death (~4.5 mil) 100 times less than than NY. Acting quickly pays. And wear your fucking mask! Permalink 11:10 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Now, either @raoult_didier’s treatment (chloroquine) is incontrovertibly effective or, + More people are dead than claimed (in Marseilles the dead have been actively voting since the Fr. revolution) + He treats pple who don’t need treatment + Something in the water/confounder Permalink 10:51 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2) Genetics & misunderstanding of dimensionality   Permalink 9:54 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The work in progress is here. Not yet the curse of dimensionality. 1) Correlation   Permalink 9:53 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Once we are done with the epidemiological models, we will show why polygenic scores produce spurious results like these & why this claim is PURE noise. Hint: curse of dimensionality, paper to come. PS–genetics is a mess.   Permalink 8:52 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Mike Lawler (@mikeandallie) should make his kids derive the significance of the Raoult chloroquine results, a trivial illustration –something that seems to escape medical commentators. Permalink 7:37 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@DrSamPappas Excellent map @ByzantinFR of genetic lineages and overlap of civilizations @_Tom_Pappas @amyriolo @MikeEmanuelFox of Eastern Mediterranean regions as inspired by a tweet from @nntaleb summer 2019   Permalink 7:02 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I am amazed that an error that eludes “evidence based” “scientists”, nonprobabilist statisticians, Pinker-style naive empiricists… is explained very simply by Mike to his kids.   Permalink 6:29 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@mikeandallie Explaining an important statistical idea in @nntaleb ‘s “What you see and what you don’t see” paper to kids:   #math #mathchat Permalink 6:03 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Department of hindsight: the NYT is now blaming mobility. Yet they were publishing crap saying it was not rational to panic when Yaneer, Joe, and I were advocating what looked like an “overreaction”.   Permalink 5:26 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No soft allowed; hint: you can prove the limit though using special functions. (Please note that I have been blocking those posting snide remarks; this is ONLY for those into these things.) Permalink 6:38 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Quarantine Workout Permalink 5:55 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam BMJ published a paper with a basic simple error and incorrect conclusions. I submitted a note but didn’t retract yet. Link to the paper and comment attached. @nntaleb   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:36 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@NickyWill100 @nntaleb’s Grandmother knew that you dummies.   Permalink 2:36 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@NAChristakis People who are dying of COVID19 will need first-rate palliative (hospice) care. This is going to be especially the case for people who are denied ventilators or who are taken off of them (i.e., who are “extubated”). Let’s talk about this painful and poignant fact. 1/ Permalink 2:24 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@tony_zy This @Forbes article on Feb.29, when the virus was quietly spreading, still haunts me today.   Permalink 6:28 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@HsenAndil She3er Malte 3an l Malte cc: @nntaleb Permalink 5:33 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI   Permalink 4:45 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb With (some) corrections Permalink 4:28 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This 2 page paper should put the nail in the coffin of “evidence based” science and risk management. Any comments? Posting on ArXiv & looking for a journal as it is a new result in Extreme Value Theory. Permalink 3:50 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “The most important aspect of fasting is that you feel deep undirected gratitude when you break the fast.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:02 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nice summary.   Permalink 4:23 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No, on the EXPECTED Maximum (i.e. average maximum), not the Maximum expected. Permalink 1:55 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Be careful. The problem with work related conversations on web apps during this period is that, unlike water cooler schmoozes, everything you say can be recorded for life. Permalink 12:20 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb LOCALISM The higher you go the more incompetence/reckelessness (with small exceptions). If this virus ever teaches anything, it is localism. You Your family Your town Your region/county/state Federal Gov: CDC The UN/@WHO Permalink 10:09 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Surprised? No. Jobless claims has ALWAYS been power law distributed. These idiotic macroeconomists never realized it. As I said in The Black Swan econometricians are charlatans, & will STAY charlatans. My new book SCFT explains in details. Permalink 7:15 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No, no, no. Under such fatness of tails for pandemics, policy is made off the expected maximum, not from scenarios devoid of error terms. Just like flood policy in the low countries. See Paper with @DrCirillo   Permalink 5:12 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@johnepattison I mean this sincerely, not snarkily: Smart people I follow here — @nntaleb and @chrismartenson — have been saying for weeks that everyone should be wearing masks. What else are those people saying that we should act on NOW rather waiting until later? Permalink 4:10 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@aPosteriorChain It is now clear that someone at @WHO has a dying wish to be called an imbecile by @nntaleb, this is the only possible explanation Permalink 3:30 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Albert-Laszlo @barabasi was waaaaaaay ahead in determining tail events consistent w/statistics described *ahead* of time –such as cascading failures leading to power outages. I recall the power failure in NY in 2003. You must take him seriously. #PrecautionaryPrinciple   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 2:42 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “There is something common to modern “liberal” and Sunni-Salafi education: They teach students answers rather than how to ask questions.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 1:27 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Remember the talk about herd immunity, or letting young people get sick and work? Stopping it fast is the only way.   Permalink 12:47 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The general public is more creative than bureaucrats.   Permalink 9:44 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb IYI bureaucrats opposed to masks used (bogus) arguments abt the protection of the wearer (“not perfect”, etc.) They didn’t think that since it ALSO prevents (more effectively) ASYMPTOMATIC sick pple from spreading it, there wd be yuuge systemic effect. PS: @WHO is a fraud. Permalink 9:36 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@allisonpearson Of all the cruel things, the inability to rush to comfort the dying, or to comfort the bereaved after a loved one has died, may be the cruellest. #coronavirus Permalink 9:26 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@swani741 Please get on the case of this bc Pharma & their allies in corporate media are going to do everything in their power to discredit this cheap & widely available drug & anyone being honest about it. .   Permalink 8:59 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, an obvious test w/asymmetric signal: How many pple treated for rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, or malaria by a *certain* dosage of chloroquine or hydrochquine have been under ventilation for corona vs rest of local population? Answer wld be a v. strong statistical signal. Permalink 8:05 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@CharlestonArchi After the plague, I hope that @nntaleb will do to charlatanism in academic architecture what he has done to IQ, psychology, social sciences, etc. It would be a joy to watch it unfold here on Twitter. This glorious exchange is from 2018: Permalink 5:35 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Il revient beaucoup, beaucoup moins cher de fermer ses frontières que de fermer ses: magasins, usines, écoles, bureaux, bordels, restaurants, cafés, stades, salles de dance, facs, glaciers, musées, écoles de ping-pong…   Permalink 4:35 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “Govt policy (when dealing with floods or pandemics) is dictated by the expected maxima of the distribution of harm, rather than the mean.” “Evidence-based” methods naively work with the expected mean, not the extremes. (paper agst BS “forecasting”)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:36 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@vtchakarova Yes, more or less. You take the #RWRI pill – you end up in Incerto-land, and Taleb shows you how deep the rabbit hole goes! I am launching our first Vienna #RWRI virtual meeting with the other two RWRI alumni @Arquitect3 and @MrFels this weekend. @nntaleb   Permalink 2:14 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb BS vendors will BS vend.   Permalink 5:04 PM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb New version of our paper on the tails of pandemics w/@DrCirillo With a key sentence to understand why epidemiological models become noise –as well as other attempts to forecast outcomes.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:17 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Follow the money: Many people like @Kevinfolta and this charlatan @dgardner (phil the rat Tetlock’s @Ptetlock coauthor) are directly (or indirectly) paid to say that the Precautionary Principle is crap.   Permalink 7:24 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 5) This article makes me shiver, reminds me of the Monsanto days: pharma can BUY science.   Permalink 6:29 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 4) Again the question is WHY did @WHO try to AVOID testing something yet claim “data is sparce”. You test PRECISELY because data is sparce!   Permalink 6:21 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) Now we still DON’T KNOW YET if chloroquine helps, but owing to an asymmetry I would pick it over nothing any minute. Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Even in St Georges Hospital in Lebanon they get stuff like this. In NY and Italy, doctors are ignoring “official” guidelines & applying the Raoult therapy early on. Note: Raoult knows his stuff about patients/treatment, not the dynamics of epidemics. Permalink 5:47 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb SUSPICIOUS: + Why the WHO bias against masks & Chloroquine? Latter used by doctors in NY, Italy (combination) in early stages. + Why the smear campaign ag. Raoult? He is the most cited viologist + Recall statistical BS in Forbes/Bloomberg + Pharma shut down a factory in France Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@VergilDen It’s during these times of crisis that it’s good to remind yourself of those simpler days. For me, the time when Taleb and I sampled all the goodness that is Italy. I will always savor those days like one does a fine lemoncello. Gindon!   Permalink 4:11 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@Samuel_NET @nntaleb has been saying this all along. WHO was wrong.   Permalink 8:01 PM – 31 Mar 2020

@RomainVallee 21/02 dans LePoint. Nassim Taleb conseillant à la France de fermer immédiatement ses frontières .   Permalink 1:35 PM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb People can MAKE their own mask. Do not insult the public’s intelligence.   Permalink 10:17 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 850,000 now   Permalink 10:04 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Surgeon General should be sued. We will have plenty of time to bring these dangerous idiots to account.   Permalink 10:02 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@Allvvaro Absolutely loving them while in quarantine. I don’t know why I waited so long to start reading them, but it feels like de f****** right time now. Gracias @nntaleb Permalink 9:51 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Serge Galam too; he is angry, very angry   via @libe Permalink 8:40 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Asymmetry: error FROM NOT wearing masks is vastly costlier than the error FROM wearing masks. This would be elementary for grandmothers (decision makers under uncertainty) but something about the @WHO & the @CDCgov w/”evidence based” BS is suspiciously blind to such a notion!   Permalink 6:16 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Now I am not saying that masks work there, rather that owing to an asymmetry you MUST wear one. Decision-making in real life is based on asymmetries. That’s the entire message of the Incerto! Permalink 6:12 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is the strongest statistical association I’ve seen w/ respect to the virus. Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. PS-Don’t get into elevators, buses, etc. unless your mask in N95   Permalink 5:05 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Make your own mask, but be careful. It is more effective than nothing, but not as much as an N95. Never leave home without it. PS: the @WHO is a fraud.   Permalink 4:54 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan   via @YouTube Permalink 4:16 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@EricRWeinstein What is with you? Why don’t you say it: it’s a prisoner’s dilemma because you and the rest of our leadership failed. Your failure means that we the public should take care of our medical heroes by not buying scarce masks while you do whatever it is you do all day with WHO & CDC.   Permalink 1:25 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@iulian_v7 Attended full RWRI twice. It paid off on multiple levels. Here’s one: my portfolio performance during this crisis vs. S&P500. So, RWRI & @nntaleb books are a great investment. Will go there for the 3rd time for sure, and 4th, 5th… Permalink 5:54 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The @WHO shd be renamed WDO (World Disease Organization): had they not existed many lives would have been spared. Friends are smelling conspiracy in WHO’s claims (“evidence based”conflation of absence of evidence for evidence). No, it’s only incompetence. Criminal incompetence. Permalink 5:31 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Everybody comments on my ideas, nobody seems to care that I’ve lost weight (in spite of quarantine)!   Permalink 3:51 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @BloombergTV @ErikSchatzker #tailrisk #insurance #keepyourhouse   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:53 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is spin: WHO is a very incompetent org. Prevented masks & were 5 steps behind. Can’t get risk asymmetry! Stat ignorant WHO now trying to do complicated “science” & degrading simple chloroquine in spite of of huge signal, using “dble blind” buzzwords.   Permalink 12:08 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The PDF version is free and available here.   Permalink 10:27 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The book is finally on Amazon. Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemolog…   via @amazon Permalink 10:21 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@Stephen89756302 @nntaleb on a personal note, thanks: I was in Singapore when they had 14 cases, UK when they had 1, wore masks in public, didn’t check a bag, ate in hotel, self-isolation on return to US. Saw the power of your model, listened, took action for self and others. Bless you. Permalink 10:19 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@EricRWeinstein Can we get a list of the officials, leaders, institutions & spokespeople who are consciously lying about “masks not being effective in the general population” to hide their own failure to stock masks, and thus pushing our health care professionals in front of this viral train? Permalink 10:07 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CORONA models Models count # people dead and # people infected. They miss a central point: 1)~10-20% of those who get it are spending time in HELL yet w/o qualifying for hospitalization as they don’t need a ventilator. 2) We don’t know the long term reduction in LE from sequels! Permalink 6:15 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LUNG VENTILATORS & INTERMITTENCE Where varying the intensity saves lives: my paper in mathematical medicine “Convex Responses in Medicine” showing the effects of intermittence were well documented w/ventilators (Jensen’s Inequ.). Also in #Antifragile.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:50 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@TommyCaillat 6ème relecture de L’Incerto en cours. Ce confinement est une aubaine si on en prends l’avantage. Lisez. Faites de l’exercise. Prenez le soleil. Mangez correctement. Pas d’excuses. @nntaleb @Mangan150 Permalink 5:40 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Factoid of the day: The Montgomerys have the (Phoenician) J2 haplogroup (J2a1-Y22056 (aka Z40262)). @felhagehistoire   Permalink 5:34 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 This is what @nntaleb calls the Ludic Fallacy. These guys either did experiments in the class room or in their minds. What they are saying are FAR from the reality. At least from my experience in China, NOBODY had this false feeling of protection while wearing the masks. #RWRI Permalink 7:31 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@jeitoapp Who the fuck needs a scientific paper to know that wearing a mask is better than not wearing one during a global pandemic? Is the world dumber than what I thought?   Permalink 1:37 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Don Bosco Ioannis Damakenos (John of Damascus) Imam Ali Socrates Thomas Aquinas   Permalink 12:29 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@NonMeek When you’re right, you’re right.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:29 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I don’t do interviews anymore (not my job). But newspapers narrate the twitter feed. Works.   Permalink 10:51 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Mask tutorial courtesy of @who   Permalink 8:16 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Just to piss off @WHO #NewProfilePic Permalink 6:52 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ask for 5, settle for 3 (but don’t tell anyone yet!)   Permalink 6:51 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Mayor of Amioun: on the other side of the Med, very diplomatic. Permalink 6:42 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism!   Permalink 6:32 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@ole_b_peters Different countries are at different stages in the pandemic, and under different levels of stress currently. That allows a little bit of load sharing. Germany responded early, e.g. the labs prepared for mass testing in January when the virus was sequenced in China. Permalink 4:27 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb In the absence of further information, there is no downside to such strategy.   Permalink 4:15 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@sarah_cone ⁦@nntaleb⁩ has been saying this for only a few decades at least.   Permalink 2:23 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@MarinaStavrou9 I need to watch this again.. I need Italian Mayors to sort you ALL out the world needs Italian Mayors to sort the world out not passionless journos & clueless academics.. Permalink 12:14 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@Gh0xuLZHXdi3LEf Μένουμε σπίτι. Permalink 6:57 PM – 28 Mar 2020

@naval WHO isn’t going to warn you. CDC isn’t going to test you. FDA isn’t going to cure you. FEMA isn’t going to feed you. Save yourself. Permalink 2:54 PM – 28 Mar 2020

@ElegantiaeArbit That feel when @nntaleb and co have been issuing better, more accurate, more consistent advice for several months than the CDC, WHO, et cetera   Permalink 11:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@ElegantiaeArbit That feel when @nntaleb and co have been issuing better, more accurate, more consistent advice for several months than the CDC, WHO, et cetera   Permalink 11:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Die Corona-Pandemie ist kein schwarzer Schwan: Warum 2020 nach Nassim Nicholas Taleb nicht mit 2008 zu vergleichen ist   via @NZZ Permalink 10:21 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@amconmag Comparative advantage, the philosophical basis of free trade, works, if by “works” you mean “maximizes efficiency at the expense of redundancy and anti-fragility.”   Permalink 9:45 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb With Branson the problem is compounded: + He is a tax refugee: he lives in the BVI & since UK has no worldwide taxation, pays no taxes. Yets wants the UK taxpayer’s backstop. + He walks around virtue-faking with TED/Davos crowd. Let him go bust. Planes will fly w/new owners!   Permalink 7:35 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism doesn’t mean total anarchy for communes to do what they want. It is fractal (multiscale), but w/maximal control at the bottom. Localism allows central government to impose interzones lockdowns, but towns can shut themselves if they wish (Italian cities during plague).   Permalink 7:24 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The worst in the hall of shame is @CassSunstein who represents all that’s evil in the IYIs: he pathologizes cautious people by finding some… disorder He wanted the Obama admin to manipulate pple away from their caution against GMOs by hiding labels.   Permalink 7:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@Nlitsardopoulos The point of NNT is that of scale and acceleration. E.g the time it took a boat to get from Crimea to Genoa in 14th century, compared to the time it took an airplane to get from London to New York. Permalink 6:39 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ordered masks on Amazon 2 weeks ago. The seller decided to not charge me. Will send money to rescue efforts as it is unfair for me to benefit from my media presence, particularly that it relates to the corona hedging. Permalink 4:07 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It is largely for the sake of these airlines that governments did not stop traffic from China. Now taxpayers need to bail them out, spending trillions. Penny wise, Trillions of dollars foolish. Permalink 2:54 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I immediately smelled a rat with 10 Downing when I was told their chief advisor was using, liking, or doing something with @PTetlock’s “Superforecasters”. I realized he must be a BS vendor/IYI. Turned out he was.   Permalink 12:39 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb “Life is long gamma”, RIP Anthony Glickman   Permalink 10:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It is common for people like Fauci to know their stuff, but to not understand risk of events. Same with epidemiologists as we saw. The carpenter fallacy: to get an ideas about probabilities of tail sequences at roulette, hire a probabilist not a carpenter. @yaneerbaryam   Permalink 10:26 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Meds & Anatolians refer to themselves via patronymic up to one generation (ides,akis,ian,ben,etc.), like N. Europeans (sson), but some strange villages go matronymic: Jean de Florette (Provence)… Or Kousba, Lebanon: my name there is “Nassim Minerva”, driver:”Michel Rosa”, etc. Permalink 10:13 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@jamesaknight Fair play to them – Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock and Chris Whitty have clearly read this tweet and delivered… #skininthegame   Permalink 9:33 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@churchesuncut Corporations have figured out that politicians are cheaper to buy than insurance #nnt Permalink 9:30 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You   Permalink 9:21 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb An interesting regularity. Greeks refer to name and place of origin, even in Levant (Athenadoros of Berytus, Lukianos of Emesa,… , Shmokron of Alexandria) S Semitic speakers refer to their ancestors: Jehoshua bn X bn X bn X bn David… As in the Bible you get long genealogy!   Permalink 8:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@RepThomasMassie (10/11) This stimulus should go straight to the people rather than being funneled through banks and corporations like this bill is doing. Permalink 8:48 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@Safaitic #coronaepigraphy day 13: How many generations of your family can you count back? This #Safaitic inscription contains a genealogy of 20 generations. Assuming a generation = 20 years, this author knew the names of his ancestors going back 400 years! A thread on his lineage. Permalink 8:18 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@normonics Libertarians dont get liberty It’s not about doing whatever the f you want despite how it impacts others It’s doing whatever the f you want CONDITIONAL on not harming others   Permalink 8:10 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb DISCOVERY DU JOUR Blocking idiots on Twitter after telling them “I block idiots” “Sorry, I block idiots” “Sorry, I block idiots, nothing personal” is not a violation of Twitter’s terms of service (& the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany). Permalink 6:27 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Before weightlifting, or course.   Permalink 5:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Few people know that Boris Johnson is Turkish on his paternal side: his grandfather Osman Kemal became “Wilfred Johnson”. Hence most likely the East Med J2 haplogroup…   Permalink 5:56 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It was NOT a 30 sigma. Anyone using sigma in economics is a fraud. Permalink 5:50 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, if after that jobless claims number anyone still uses macroeconomic tools w/”variance” “standard deviation”, “kurtosis” etc. should be arrested. I said in The Black Swan & next textbook (Chap 3) that economists are frauds. This is the PROOF before the last move. Permalink 5:48 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Respect (both from me and from our common friend in the South East)   Permalink 5:26 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Fat Tony don’t believe much in conspiracy theories. Why? The “geniuses” at the top have proven time and time again they’re too stupid to pull anyting that elaborate off…   Permalink 5:11 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@AviSolomon8 @chrislhayes @bruces The Greeks have not forgotten the lessons of history… Permalink 3:07 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@MasaSkiba “You cannot hedge the risk of epidemics, unless you stop airplanes from flying.” @nntaleb May 19, 2010. Permalink 12:56 PM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Friendship and enmity are both path dependent. Former friends (rats) are permanent enemies & former enemies are permanent friends. “I treat my friends as temporary pre-enemies, my enemies as temporary pre-friends, & my post-friends as permanent enemies.” Bed of Procrustes Permalink 12:04 PM – 26 Mar 2020

@PZalloua We need to know how the virus is spreading in the community and who is more likely to spread it? The more we know the better we can prevent @yaneerbaryam @nntaleb @normonics Permalink 8:32 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Gods watch over our BSBPB (BS Busting Probabilist Brigade, includes the anti-naive-probabilism school of @HarryDCrane, the ergodic one of @ole_b_peters, and many more): Flawed paper by nudge IYI @CassSunstein had 107 dowloads in 6 months (Compared to 10K-100K for us). Permalink 7:01 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You   Permalink 4:51 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@Jaffer22915438 1/ Friends, my twitter feed has become a Real World Twitter Institute (nod to Nassim). Decided to chronicle this entrepreneurial journey in crisis distribution filling a supply gap. Yes, we make money but challenges pop up daily. Permalink 4:51 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I just published Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You   Permalink 5:16 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@normonics Permalink 5:13 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Forbes’ @tarahaelle wrote “showed no significant difference in outcomes between those who received the drug & those who received usual care.” In other words: “showed no significant difference in outcomes FOR THOSE WHO DID NOT NEED IT” since those they are discussing were CURED Permalink 4:59 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Let me explain why Forbes’s @tarahaelle & Bloomberg’s @Business are making a statistical fraud concerning chloroquine: + You NEVER look for people who healed on their own on BOTH sides: 14 pple who recovered w/& 14 pple w/o Cloroquine tell you NOTHING about the drug. Fraudsters   Permalink 1:32 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@IvanBlecic @nntaleb, @yaneerbaryam & the gang won this debate. There’s an expression in Italian: “la merda viene a galla”. Fascinating the sheer SPEED w/ which BS has been detected in the last 2 months. Wld’ve taken years (if ever), dismantled one after another, in nifty 3-days instalments.   Permalink 1:26 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is Fake News, Statistically. Forbes should remove   Permalink 1:12 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism du Jour Many Italian towns survived the Plague by closing their gates.   Permalink 10:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism du Jour Many Italian towns survived the Plague by closing their gates.   Permalink 10:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@phl43 Permalink 9:59 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY & ASYMMETRY Let me make my point clear. Does Chloroquine work? I am not sure. But…if infected & very sick, would I take Chloroquine? 100% Yes. In the right dosage: it has been around for decades & we know its side effect & drug interactions.   Permalink 9:35 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@TMFStoffel If I had to read just two paragraphs of @yaneerbaryam and @nntaleb’s op-ed in the UK, this would be it. But you have an extra two minutes, so you should read the whole thing:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:14 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@drjamesdinic 500 patients in northern Italy are starting to breathe thanks to hacked scuba gear, modified with 3D printers. #COVIDー19 solutions!   @joerogan Permalink 8:02 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine wants to lecture live on social media while writing equations on a classroom blackboard. Any tripod with remote ctrl (for Iphone 11) that you recommend? Permalink 8:01 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ @DrCirillo & I looked at the data, & we were shocked: it has the FATTEST tails I’ve seen. Fatter than the Levy distribution (alpha<½). Under such DEEP uncertainty you never gamble with idiotic scenario models. Never.   Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ @DrCirillo & I looked at the data, & we were shocked: it has the FATTEST tails I’ve seen. Fatter than the Levy distribution (alpha<½). Under such DEEP uncertainty you never gamble with idiotic scenario models. Never.   Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@TaroniAndrea When all this is over, @nntaleb will still be an asshole. But he will also still have been right.   Permalink 6:33 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) In other words: Compare # of people who don’t recover but received Chloroquine to # people who don’t recover and receive nothing. Bloomberg should not be spreading this dangerous BS! Permalink 5:46 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The UK’s coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn’t | Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam   Permalink 5:43 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Statistical flaw in the conclusion: That study says almost NOTHING about Chloroquine. The comparison now is conditioned on BOTH being cured. You need cases without spontaneous recovery, such as Reault’s.   via @business Permalink 5:20 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@Jaffer22915438 1/ Do you realize how f*cked up this system is to have someone like me up-fronting millions of dollars to bring masks into the US. 3 weeks ago, I did not know an N95 mask from a dust mask. Not a saint, please. We will make money, but the system is dysfunctional. Permalink 4:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Statesman.   Permalink 12:56 PM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb With @DrCirillo. Forgot to thank @BertZwart1 Permalink 10:14 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases: Clearly a steep power law. You need vigilance. Complicated epidemiological models are like studies of forks and knives on the Titanic.   via @academia Permalink 10:08 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Respect   Permalink 9:59 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Beats the NY library… Permalink 8:44 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 A beautiful application of the shadow mean method on pandemics ( It allows you to derive the expected value when the fat tailed distribution is bounded, in this case, by human population on earth ). I was impressed by this method when @nntaleb and @DrCirillo discussed it at #rwri   Permalink 8:27 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And trading, of course. Permalink 8:11 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Math, Twitter, and weightlifting. Same time. Thanks, @GrantSSC for help. Permalink 7:52 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Our fat tails paper shd limit these models for entertainment only Permalink 7:30 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is a preview of the paper with @DrCirillo: contagious pandemics are fat tailed. Anyone using epidemiological model is like someone counting spoons on the Titanic. Permalink 6:30 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb makeshift… Was not a pun but a genuine typo. Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Grant @GrantSSC is starting to make lemon out of lemonade, like @Jaffer22915438: delivering makeshit weightlifting equipment to people stuck at home.   Permalink 6:01 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Lesson from a long experience with model blowups:@neil_ferguson, if you need a model w/”thousands of lines”, this is not a model useable for real world risk & decisions–rather something with the FRAGILITY of a house built with matches to impress some tenure committee.   Permalink 4:43 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb localism at its best   Permalink 2:04 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Do you know how to sew? Make masks for hospitals, nursing homes, rehab facilities, or yourself. Here is information how. Spread the word   Permalink 9:41 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANCIENT LANGUAGES DU JOUR Karshum(Kirsh), pum (temm/famm), 3inum, appum(aff, anf), uznum (udn, dayné) are preserved. Interesting: birkum BRK=> RKB (rekbé), tikkum maybe ta2m (to cover neck?) and most interesting: puridum => fard (single)   Permalink 9:16 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb One small problem. It is currently in the nation state of Turkey.   Permalink 8:11 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I don’t lift. I just hoard plates as a hobby.   Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Bought more plates, just in case. Permalink 7:33 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Now this correlation is a correlation. Remove points and it stays the same. It may tell us however, that richer countries tend to test more, or that people travel much more into and out of richer countries. Check a network graph.   Permalink 5:12 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@mynemosyne54 Body parts in Akkadian Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@cdipaola62 WHO finally has “data” Universal Precautions for Respiratory/Droplet borne viruses has been warranted since outbreak When uncertain—>act with Precaution ⁦@endCOVID ⁦@nntaleb⁩ ⁦@yaneerbaryam⁩ ⁦@normonics⁩ ⁦@TuckerCarlson⁩   Permalink 1:41 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Too late, De Blasio. You need to be one step ahead, not three steps behind.   Permalink 5:59 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 We need to “overreact” to fight the virus, this doesn’t look like that @trishankkarthik @normonics @yaneerbaryam   Permalink 5:33 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@LorenzoWVilla Do you want to try this one? For (a,b,c) real and positive Permalink 2:37 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Something standard Libertarians don’t get (but localists get very well): liberty & threats to others don’t scale the way they think they do. Libertarians need to translate threats to individuals into threats to the collective without naive linear scaling.   Permalink 2:36 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb To relax during the quarantine   Permalink 11:06 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 6) Saying “it is nobody’s fault” hence let’s help corps is vicious: risk management=cash to face eventualities WITHOUT knowing what they WILL BE: we have 2 kidneys SO we don’t have to predict how they one will be harmed. Except that a pandemic is NOT a Black Swan. (INCERTO) Permalink 10:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 6) Saying “it is nobody’s fault” hence let’s help corps is vicious: risk management=cash to face eventualities WITHOUT knowing what they WILL BE: we have 2 kidneys SO we don’t have to predict how they one will be harmed. Except that a pandemic is NOT a Black Swan. (INCERTO) Permalink 10:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic | Evidence-based science | inspired by @nntaleb Support my work   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:56 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Commentary: “Few solid” I meant “a few solid” (i.e. sufficient to show Harry doesn’t just publish to gain status). Soon we will see the end of pseudo-credentalization/academic poseur. Permalink 9:01 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb THE END OF CITATION RINGS Harry Crane, probabilist (mathematical stat),knows his shit. Few solid publications, 350 citations. David Spiegelhalter,”statistician” 100s of pubs, Member of prestigious societies, 111,000 citations. Watch Harry take Spiegelhalter to the cleaners.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) CEOs of bailed out companies must disburse PAST bonuses. Facing the GBRT (Generalized Bob Rubin Trade) where someone has a free option. Permalink 8:31 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) CEOs of bailed out companies must disburse PAST bonuses. Facing the GBRT (Generalized Bob Rubin Trade) where someone has a free option. Permalink 8:31 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This result is very robust. Paper posted soon. As probabilist @BertZwart1 (specialist in Extreme Value Theory) observes, this is the result of parameter stochasticity in the SIR model. Making parameters deterministic is what was incompetent in the UK government model.   Permalink 7:47 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I was actually teasing them. A more “elegant” tweet would have been: “It says a lot about them, but also something about you”. Permalink 6:49 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) The shareholder should not never end up being rewarded for lack of hedging/insurance. He/she should go first.   Permalink 5:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb When your archenemies give you praise, it says something about them, but also a lot about you.   Permalink 5:43 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I’ve learned from a long life that someone close to you with a gun can be controlled if you are trained; worry about someone with a knife.   Permalink 5:32 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 3) Airlines/Boeing are lobbying for bailouts, which they will get. How about the small corner restaurant? The independent tour guide? The personal trainer? The prostitute? The barber? The hotdog vendor living from tourists near the Met Museum? Last time (2008) they were ignored. Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb In PRINCIPIA POLITICA: Permalink 5:21 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Explain to me why we should spent taxpayer money to bailout companies (airlines) who spent their cash buying their own stock so the CEO gets optionality, instead of having a crisis buffer. We should bail out individuals based on needs, not corporations. #Moralhazard Permalink 6:21 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Many people stock up on pasta. Others on toilet papers. Some go for wine. And some people stock up on Olympic weight plates. Permalink 5:33 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Thankful to @SamHarrisOrg. The problemo is too big to worry about personal enmities.   Permalink 5:26 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ In other words, these people MUST have something in common that makes them susceptible to the virus: 4 is too yuuuge to be dismissed as a coincidence. (Conditional probabilities are low for healthy and young, so a few draws are <10^-4). Hidden comorbidity is too explanatory. Permalink 12:55 PM – 21 Mar 2020

The UK’s Coronavirus Policy / Corporate Socialism

The UK’s coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn’t  (The Guardian)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam
Wed 25 Mar 2020

Our research did not use any complicated model with a vast number of variables, no more than someone watching an avalanche heading in their direction calls for complicated statistical models to see if they need to get out of the way.

Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You (Medium)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb with Mark Spitznagel
Mar 25, 2020

Why should we spend taxpayer money to bailout companies who spent their cash (and often even borrowed to generate that cash) to buy their own stock (so the CEO gets optionality), instead of building a rainy day buffer? Such bailouts punish those who acted conservatively and harms them in the long run, favoring the fool and the rent-seeker.


#Moralhazard, @SamHarrisOrg, @PTetlock, Ioannidis, India, UBI, @R_Thaler & @CassSunstein, LUNACY IN THE UK,

Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens–Coronavirus: A Note (pdf)
T H E  T E C H N I C A L  I N C E R T O  C O L L E C T I O N (460 pg pdf)
Ethics of Precaution: Individual and Systemic Risk (Sign up to download pdf)
Review of Ferguson et al “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions…”(Sign up to download pdf)

@nntaleb We need a hall of shame in this thread. These people got us here owing to the lack of preparation. Murderous idiots!   Permalink 9:44 AM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine extends great thanks to ⁦@GrantSSC⁩ and other twitterlifters for helping with this. Permalink 6:53 AM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Jaffer of course. Make lemons   Permalink 9:01 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@HarryDCrane Cost how many lives?   Permalink 8:17 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@TMFStoffel By the end of Mar, entire country will be on lockdown. Hope it doesn’t take that long If we had listened to @yaneerbaryam, @normonics, and @nntaleb when they issued their warning (Jan 26th, I believe), this wouldn’t be necessary. IF we have guts to do it, recovery starts May 1 Permalink 7:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb There is a suspicion that STAT NEWS which published the Ioannidis article is an Industry shill. It published Henry I. Miller AFTER he was caught working for Monsanto for which he was fired from Stanford and his columns were removed from Forbes.   Permalink 6:30 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Some days I have hordes after me. Some large event happens, and I can do no wrong. Then a quiet period…   Permalink 5:29 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Third conversation with @nntaleb about uncertainty, certainty and what to do when there is systemic risk / what not to do when a truck is headed your way   Permalink 2:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb typo: “instead of” contating you. Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Spyros is both an admirable man & a genuine scholar. — When you disagree with @spyrosmakrid, as a friend, you solve it w/Ouzo personally, never in public. Unlike Phil the rat @PTetlock who mocks you on the web before contacting you.   Permalink 11:42 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@spyrosmakrid Nobody can doubt that the world will now spend tens of trillions to fight the coronavirus while spending would have been minimal in Jan, not to mention all the lives that would have been saved and the trillions of stock market losses avoided. I must admit I was wrong. @nntaleb   Permalink 11:37 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine in Atlanta is looking for a barbell to buy for immediate delivery. Permalink 10:36 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Central aspect of the PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE at the systemic level: it applies to a very narrow set of conditions, centrally: FAT TAILS from multiplicative effects, w/o circuit breakers. The problem w dangerous BS vendors like @SaPinker/@PTetlock is their half training. 1 /n Permalink 10:28 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb My paper on tail option pricing (revealing the equations at UNIVERSA) is under revision by a journal. What happened is not an “outlier” But anyone who after today still says “tail options are expensive” deserves to be put in a sanatorium.   Permalink 9:19 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Ioannidis problem: these pseudoempirical idiots don’t get that INSURANCE is cheaper than catastrophe, which is why under convexity you act early, quickly, and … CHEAPLY. We now spent 2 Trillion when it could have been minimal on Jan 26.   Permalink 8:15 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@jeremias_bosch Right, now this is it. I hated you for so long and now I come back to you @nntaleb like a child that has filled all the oil lamps in the house with water and lived in darkness, out of his own stupidity. Keep on giving them what they deserve. Never stop, never! Permalink 7:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why my forthcoming textbook has a defect in reasoning named after him: the “Pinker problem”, or pseudo-empiricism with systemic variables or fat-tailed domains.   Permalink 7:37 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CONVEXITY OF ECONOMIC EFFECTS FROM PANDEMICS Why the economic costs from pandemics can still grow exponentially even when infection rates slow down. We live in an overoptimized world. Permalink 6:21 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The UK government is borderline psychopathic. Or maybe not borderline. (If true.)   Permalink 5:16 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@jsferjou Bravo @philippejuvin Les médecins «officiels» qui ont décidé il y a qques semaines q les tests (54€ pièce) étaient inutiles ne veulent ni se déjuger ni «engraisser les labos» (témoignage recueilli sous couvert d’anonymat) Contrairement aux masques il n’y a pourtant pas pénurie   Permalink 3:18 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The intuition of what @wtgowers likes about Yaneer’s article is that you’d rather see islands of concentrated infections (pink) & safer areas than evenly distributed. Simply islands have lower concentration than continents/circuit breakers. @dzviovich can you show the automata?   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:07 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fucking idiot my whole point is the asymmetry: how to behave with things we can’t predict. Permalink 12:11 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb My own review is “Ioannidis mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence /recommends to buy insurance AFTER the harm when we now have evidence”. Risk requires asymmetric evidence. Harry Crane has a longer review   Permalink 12:00 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@JackDav88 I cannot speak for Taleb, but his basic point was the Ioannidis is treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence. That’s enough to bring the entire argument down. If you are still arguing for only “data-driven” approaches under uncertainty there is nothing else I can say. Permalink 11:53 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The problem with the Ioannidis article is that it is retweeted by every imbecile in sight as it gives cover to their beliefs.   Permalink 11:51 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Another friend lost his job in the service industry. He immediately found the substitute (what gains from quarantine) & is thriving. He asked to not release the exact industry (for now) so local people don’t take the biz away from him. Permalink 11:33 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntalebbot “It is a very recent disease to mistake the unobserved for the nonexistent; but some are plagued with the worse disease of mistaking the unobserved for the unobservable.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@Firefly_fan @nntaleb commenting John “clueless” Ioannidis:   NAILS IT. Permalink 10:41 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The paper is here. It blew up on Academia   Permalink 10:41 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb MAKE LEMONADE OUT OF LEMONS! Yuuuge hero is @Jaffer22915438: given a shortage of hand sanitizers so he went looking for idle factories, found one, got the products & is now shipping 18,000 units/day. Think how instead of hunkering down you can get aggressive. #Antifragile 1/n   Permalink 9:23 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam .@nntaleb and I discuss superspreaders, lockdowns and how to stop the outbreak   Permalink 7:10 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ioannidis got the reasoning completely BACKWARD. I mean reallllllly backward. In the real world, one must REDUCE RISK in the absence of reliable data, via the MOST ROBUST (model resistant) method. That’s the message of the INCERTO.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:29 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Irresponsible claim. Possible but v. v. highly uncertain. One needs to be blind to make such a strong claim while posting this graph. Just look at the points.   Permalink 9:17 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb A review of Ferguson et al., paper using the U.K. standard model for virus risks, w/@yaneerbaryam Paper underestimates the benefits of a LOCKDOWN. As we saw, SIR-type models fail to capture granularity and difference between individuals and AGGREGATES.…_   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:17 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@joe_shipman MATH PUZZLE FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT @nntaleb He is too busy saving countries from listening to credentialed morons. You cut a circular disk of paper radially to make wedges to be taped into conical paper cups. To maximize total volume you do 2 cups; what should the angles be? Permalink 7:51 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Same with insurance models. Loss from hurricanes aren’t what you think are losses from hurricanes, even if your estimate of the intensity is correct. Why? Because the costs of the material goes up nonlinearly owing to (conditional) excess demand. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I am the ONLY one who is impolite and crass. Others are polite and well behaved (except that Joe is learning to be rude)   Permalink 5:34 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Something UK modelers (idiots) did not get with hospitalization that we traders and modelers in nonlinearities have know since (1997): The market is a large movie theater with a small door. Same for hospital capacity. Gabish? Permalink 5:29 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Nerds: In 2008, The B of England was managing risk w the “Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model” which assumed no banks, NO TAILS & no crises. They got insulted when I called it a fraud. Epidemiologists have similar flaws. No tails from model error. No perturbations.   Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Bravo.   Permalink 3:21 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb So we spend >700bn on imaginary risks from listening to IYI geopoliticians & journos when in fact the true enemy is a virus you pick up doing high five with the bartender. Time to fire the Foreign Affairs/Think Tank establishment, close political “science”depts & reset. Reset. Permalink 12:18 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I laughed so hard people I drank the wrong way & started coughing which scared everyone around me! The “BS Busting” operation seeking to eradicate statistical BS. Permalink 10:09 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Just a reminder that “Risk Parity” is a scam. Permalink 9:59 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The scoop: @realDonaldTrump’s staff relied on OUR memo from Jan 26 (@normonics & @yaneerbaryam), which gave solid grounds to ignore “academic” naive forecasting models estimating low impact from the China virus. #PrecautionaryPrinciple   Permalink 9:14 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb That was 2010.   Permalink 7:30 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The place where: Ramses II, Nebuchadnezzar, Esarhaddon, Caracalla, Napoleon III, etc. left commemorative Stellae. Preserve Nahrl Kalb! Help protect the site from real-estate fraudsters.   Permalink 6:44 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Long walks. 18000 steps yesterday   Permalink 1:40 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Marks my words: 1) @R_Thaler & @CassSunstein will go down as open dangers to society, 2) Thaler’s models have already been debunked so if he is ever remembered, he will be remembered for his fake research.   Permalink 1:28 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb So the methodology (with heuristics we can even teach at #RWRI) is figuring out potential model impact from simple nonlinearity. Alas, many epi models turn into pure hogwash. Nice representation, but unreliable for decision making. Permalink 1:22 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@TalebWisdom “You are free in inverse proportion to the number of people to whom you can’t say “fuck you”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:06 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why you are harming others by not “overreacting”   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:34 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Us vs @sapinker and “evidence based” pseudo-empiricism. From a #RWRI attendant   Permalink 8:47 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. A #RWRI Sunday strip with @nntaleb & @financequant & Raphael Douady. This strip is included in my newest mini-book Nr. 3 available here:   Previous buyers will get a free update per e-mail ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb *My profession=finding holes in models by IYIs I selected SIMPLEST SIR modelto check sensitivity to parametrization/convexity to error, common w/3 nonlinear ODEs. Every refinement to nonlinearM creates EXPLOSION of errors,curseofdimensionality (Yan & Chowellfor improvements) Permalink 8:18 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Here is my code, in case I made mistakes. It’s from the elementary SIR differential equations. Permalink 7:02 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Policy is a speculative lunacy. Playing with the toy standard epidemiological SIR model. We have no idea how model parameters cause a yuuuge variation in ourcomes. We don’t even know the central parameters/whether stochastic. Try to add perturbations for “herd immunity”. Permalink 5:47 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@wael_atallah Thank God there is still some sense in the world! Chocolate Hummus not selling despite the panic. Permalink 1:07 PM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Herd Immunity & ANTIFRAGILITY What drove me bananas is some imbecile who said “it was an antifragile strategy”. NOTHING can be antifragile unless you remove the left tail. I go bananas when people cite me backwards. Permalink 10:42 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Done!   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:23 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #zerohedge #notasafehaven #riskyparity @RayDalio   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 10:09 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Joe Norman, @yaneerbaryam & I did not “react” on Jan 26 with out paper. We had been preparing for the statement since the poor understanding of Ebola’s tail risk. This is from Nov 2018. Permalink 10:08 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I am a risk analyst & probability modeler. Not a virologist. I assumed reinfection possible because of lack of evidence. But if virologists (like this UK a @TheCrisk) state that reinfection is common for other Coronaviruses (this one has too short a life), then CASE CLOSED. Permalink 9:56 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK’s “herd immunity” risk-blind strategy hinges on unempirical psycholophasters’ theory abt “crisis fatigue” & “nudging” BS. Assumes 1) no reinfection 2) hospitals will not be overwhelmed (w secondary deaths), 3) disease must return 4) no vaccine is coming Total IYI Lunacy. Permalink 9:33 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam How to stop an outbreak (and why China won’t have to reimpose restrictions) Squares represent individuals: grey susceptible; yellow latent; red infected and contagious; black deceased or recovered; and light blue are isolated. 1/2   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:43 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb There MUST be laws barring economists from doing regressions, just as there are laws preventing fortune tellers from giving medical advice. @DrCirillo   Permalink 4:41 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And obviously in Aramaic: Syriac and Mishnaic Permalink 2:29 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Apparently there is ستر in Arabic could be cover but so uncommon that I wonder where it is used. Permalink 2:24 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb (Proverbs 27.12) Note the Lebanese “setra” from נסתר (apparently not in Arabic); unless we find an Aramaic equivalen it would be Phoenician. Permalink 2:05 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb יב ערום ראה רעה נסתר פתאים עברו נענשו In Lebanese (literal): L 3aa2l lamma yshuf l khatar baddo l stra, L basit bkammel wbyékela In Lebanese (saying) Alf jabén w la alla yer7amo. #PrecautionaryPrinciple Permalink 1:53 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LUNACY IN THE UK Very clear on “herd immunity” assuming immunity is reached, no permanent damage, and NO VARIANCE for the parameters.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:36 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Only way to counter the fools at 10 Downing is for team w/@yaneerbaryam & @normonics : 1-Pressure US gov to block travel from UK 2-Issue guidelines for UK citizens to protect themselves from both corona & the gov of Boris-the-dupe @BorisJohnson 3- Show errors in epi studies Permalink 9:48 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Full book is here   Permalink 8:45 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The hardest thing to absorb for a “well educated” IYI is: absence of evidence ≢ evidence of absence   Permalink 7:36 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb About everybody seems to be working under the hypothesis that those who recover from the virus are permanently in the SAME condition as those who never got it. Permalink 7:10 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb SKIN IN THE GAME All those in the UK who are in favor of the “herd immunity” BS should self-infect with the virus. Includes ALL decision-makers, science advisors and “Boris no Precaution”. Now. #SkinintheGame is about filtering those with systemic danger out of the system. Permalink 6:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@neilchriss Of course I prefer 90% doors locked to no doors locked. I also prefer Russian roulette with one bullet vs two. Justifying a bad alternative by presenting worse ones is precisely why most people suck at risk. Permalink 6:07 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb   Permalink 5:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb If you don’t like my style, go follow the Washington Post. Never lecture someone on her or his style! Permalink 5:14 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error. Permalink 5:09 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error.   Permalink 5:08 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 41 langues.   Permalink 5:00 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@Premysl_The_Man Over 1000 volunteers for   will fight this. Lower connectivity, now! @yaneerbaryam Permalink 4:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) On Jan 26 when ~1000 infected people we issued our warning on how to handle the pandemic: take no chances, stay ahead of it. Precautionary measures based on symmetry of errors.   Permalink 4:19 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 3) You don’t board a plane w/safety w/p-value of .05 (likely to be miscomputed). If they used their “scientific” approach to risk management no pilot would be alive today. Risk require much more reliability than “evidence based” methods which are backward-looking & flawed. Permalink 4:14 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK NUDGE UNIT 1) Just as before the crisis of 2008-9 I was shouting that economic “experts” were no experts, we will sorely discover that behavioral “experts” are even more unreliable. 2) Even psychs admit behavioral papers replicate <½, that is the reliability of astrology. Permalink 4:09 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb h/t @sothisispietro Permalink 6:49 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Actually, it is not obvious. Medication might be accelerating their problems.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:18 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@TalebWisdom “Automation makes otherwise pleasant activities turn into “work”.” – Nassim Taleb #automation #robotics Permalink 5:41 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The thick paper Permalink 11:08 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Friends, the PDF for the Technical Incerto (expected >2 volumes) will be free.   Two options: (Note Amazon may list with big discount) Permalink 10:55 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@GuruAnaerobic Mayoral hopeful @RoryStewartUK has been retweeting @nntaleb   Permalink 10:24 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@okeyego The point of panic is to prevent the virus from spreading in the first place, imbecile, not to help those already infected with surviving. Permalink 10:00 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@normonics Dear @GovChrisSununu Please see my letter below as well the note we wrote in January that drove the travel restrictions that have bought us time. I submitted this letter on your website as well so you have my contact info there. Please don’t hesitate. Best, Joe Permalink 8:52 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Remember that the US is not a Republic but (still) a Federation. The president can control foreign access, but not what happens in the States/communes. Some States such as NY are ahead of the game; they even ordered their own testing kits. Others so so. #Localism Permalink 8:00 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) Psychologists themselves own that >55% of their results don’t replicate. I’ve shown that 100% of what they do in fat tailed domains is exactly backward.   Permalink 7:12 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb REMINDER: Psychologists as a collective are probability-ignorant BS vendors publishing unrigorous crap. Just a reminder.   Permalink 6:48 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Donaldo: If you own the mahhket on the way up, you will also own it on the way down.   Permalink 6:46 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb SOLUTION: market expects +/- 11.3% swing. This is a classic confusion because operators don’t understand what “volatility” means. Just as psychologists who deal with “correlation” and p-values don’t know what these metrics mean. Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Correct the yuuge error. Hint: in Statistical Consequences of Fat Tail, but won’t tell you where.   Permalink 7:24 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) Point is: all we need to do is slow down the growth, CUT THE TAIL–we can’t eliminate it. Unfair to favor the UK but simpler to execute. The virus is already here so the idea is to let it expire. Our proposal of Jan 26. infections were <1% of today’s   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:01 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, Trump woke up. He understood that the solution is acting NOW in reducing connectivity. 30 days travel ban from Europe is perfect. Let the states ban public transportation/close all gatherings for 30 days. Permalink 6:20 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb What psychologists like this dangerous fellow @vaughanbell call “evidence” is something that fails 55-60% of the time, and has a p~ .05. With a p~.05 no pilot/flight attendant would be alive. Permalink 6:10 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Someone shd ban psychologists from talking probability. New book counters idiots ignorant of Risk & Extreme Value Theory who talk about “evidence”. Soon in hard copy.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:49 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CORONA TRICKS Friends pls add suggestions No fasting >20h No bread (can’t disinfect) unless you bake it yslf No sushi/raw meat No intense exercise. DL 80% max, at risk of detraining No public transp., no valet parking No Thaler/Nudge Unit No bars; if you must No nonalchlc bev Permalink 2:18 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ATTENTION Friends in the UK Beware the recommendations of the “Nudge Unit” and “evidence based” BS. They are more risk creators than mitigators. Learn from Korea, Singapore. In the US, Governor Cuomo is doing the right thing. This is the outline of my paper “nudge sinister”. Permalink 12:56 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The “nudge unit” & “evidence based” will wreck the U.K.   Permalink 10:18 AM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Kluuuuuuelessly dangerous. The fellow @vaughanbell is a psychologist. Invokes “evidence based”: you need “evidence” of a crash before putting your seat belt on. The U.K. is doomed by government listening to “tenured” psychologists and nudge operators, like Thaler & other idiots.   Permalink 10:18 AM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fucking IMBECILE, this was never presented as a “prediction” but as a warning about the fragility of SOME systems as they globalize. Permalink 1:22 PM – 10 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Lesson: Those who panicked early don’t have to panic today. Permalink 11:01 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Explaining “Black Swans” and their connection to Fat Tails in new technical book. Permalink 8:34 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Oh no!   Permalink 8:16 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those who need help reading Permalink 7:38 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@mikeharrisNY As this wise man @nntaleb has said #ES_F $SPX Permalink 6:51 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@paulportesi You just haven’t seen the other side of the distribution. @nntaleb This quote has always stuck with me. Its elegance and power. I never forgot it. Well… We are seeing the other side of the distribution. Permalink 7:13 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb How to Panic If You Must: discussion with @yaneerbaryam   Permalink 5:17 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb BTW, from The Black Swan, in 2007. Permalink 1:21 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The great Cato-the-wise, Cato Sapiens, Cato Censorius, or (in Staten Island, Cato-no-nonsense) would be turning in his grave & characteristically seething with anger at the misuse of his name by that imbecilic institute. PS-As we explained,deaths *lag* infections because…time   Permalink 12:24 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@pierre_fraser Le #coronavirus et les erreurs journalistiques Dans un tweet dont seul @nntaleb a le secret, ce dernier à souligné que « L’Italie ne met pas à risque son économie pour combattre le virus, mais que […] »   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 12:02 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And of course the payment was not made. In spite of pressure by #RiadPonzi & the banksters. Good news.   Permalink 10:44 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@trishankkarthik More reasons not to venerate the cult of the youth:   Permalink 9:35 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb (No, nothing chemical. They are spraying Greek-Orthodox holy water.) Permalink 9:29 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The gym in Amioun (my ancestral village). Yet no virus in the area. Maybe the precautionary mindset in the genes (or, perhaps from the local olive oil). I guess I should go there. Permalink 9:20 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Solution. Joe Shipman tried (and failed) to ruin my weekend. (deleted previous owing to typos ) Permalink 8:06 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Footnote: I framed the Tennis Problem as if it were the COVFEFE riddle. Permalink 7:35 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Beware Journalistic Fallacies Italy is NOT “risking” the economy to fight the virus. It is lowering the risk for the economy by fighting the virus. If the coronavirus proved something, it is that the half-learned (journalist, psychologist) is the greatest danger for mankind. Permalink 7:15 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@Untiroalaire What pisses IYIs off is realizing how untaggable @nntaleb is, while their whole lives have revolved around labelling others. Aim for untaggability. Permalink 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@koushikp Unfortunately despite all your efforts, many haven’t understood the concept of limiting factor. The capacity of the healthcare system isn’t unlimited. So the mortality rate isn’t a linear number as being spewed out across many IYIs across the internet. Permalink 6:41 PM – 7 Mar 2020

#RWRI13, Connectivity,, Contact Between People, virucide, Quillettists, #RiadPonzi, John Gray, Conferences, Sunstein, Superspreader, TRUE JUSTICE, Harari, Dawkins, Hanson, Thaler, George Steiner, Bureaucracy, Localism

@Pascallisch Same is true for animals/evolved cognitive systems. Most false positives for predator detection in foliage are without consequence. A single false negative can be fatal. Raw accuracy is not the point. Permalink 9:11 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb If the word “panic” means “exaggerated” reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one. We MUST reduce connectivity for 20 d to avert a serious problem. We have survived for zillion years thanks to “irrational” “panics”.   Permalink 8:30 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Saying the coronavirus panic is dumb is dumb. #PrecautionaryPrinciple #WittgensteinsRuler   Permalink 7:56 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb “If you see fraud, & you don’t say fraud, you are a fraud”. I provided a list of #RiadPonzi & the banker’s partisans. They also engaged in smearing those who were opposed to paying.   Permalink 4:32 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 1) Predictions don’t count. It’s their payoff, what you do w/them (x is not f(x) ). Academics don’t get it. “Speculators are not paid in true or false, but in $) 2) Indeed, I don’t run the account. But I save the tweets as I am too lazy to have a notebook. Thanks, Cetin.   Permalink 4:19 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Impressive: he was self-taught in Semitic languages. Like our @HsenAndil “Only autodidacts are free” (#Antifragile) Permalink 3:42 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@HomegrownJoan @nntaleb Nurses need help!   Permalink 3:05 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb We hit 400 volunteers!   Permalink 2:53 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb New job   Permalink 2:52 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@paulportesi @nntaleb Wittgenstein ruler   Permalink 2:10 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Possibly the most erudite man in history. He taught himself Semitic Languages & translated Arabic proverbs into Latin. He knew Arabic, Greek, Latin, Hebrew, Syriac/Aramaic. He was to Montaigne (then considered a popularizing philistine) what Umberto Eco was to Fox News.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Just blocked a few who discuss this virus in terms of “predicting” & track record, as Phil the rat @PTetlock & others in the “forecasting” BS are presenting it. When you put your seat belt you aren’t “forecasting” a crash. When you lock your house you aren’t forecasting theft… Permalink 8:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@dancarna Localism in Seattle: the CDC was taking too long with multiple fumbles getting testing kits to us so we made our own. Now we’re able to test 1000 people per day   Permalink 7:49 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@normonics As this thing evolves, remember: we did not hedge. We told you what we saw and what was coming if we failed to take action. Most are too busy hedging to get their head out of the sand.   Permalink 6:39 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@ole_b_peters New blog post. Probability weighting is one of those supposed cognitive biases that evaporate, as far as I can tell, when we think carefully about how to live within time.   Permalink 6:26 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Actually we can show this identity is false: Negative log = log[abs[]]+ i \pi is not really a function, when we solve as 1 rather than 2 integrals we get a residual of \frac{\pi^3}{3}. Otherwise the left integral is something like -5/4 i zeta(3) “offset” by the second integral. Permalink 6:22 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LOCALISM ! Mervyn King understand that city-states shd deal directly with one another, not via some bureaucrat in Brussels/DC Athens had a deal w/Sidon: full rights in both places (at least in Athens, where resident Sidonese were not metics but citizens)   Permalink 5:48 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, Friends, Now that you understand multiplicative and systemic effects, you can get why we worry about GMOs –but not small idiosyncratic risks.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:54 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@MKM_Abdul Precisely what @nntaleb wrote in Antifragile.   Permalink 2:16 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Thanks for the help.   Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Another blue check mark who doesn’t understand 1) multiplicative processes, 2) risk, 3) other stuff. Yet spreading danger. Another one.   Permalink 1:58 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why it is SELFISH to not worry more about the virus than other sources of risk even if it does not affect you as much. Individual precaution does not scale to collective precaution. [Adding to PRINCIPIA POLITICA] Permalink 12:27 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Maestro Statistician Andrew Gelman going (as usual) after nudgeboy @CassSunstein [If you want to be scared, imagine him or concoctista “Rationality Richard” @Richard_Thaler doing some nudging from the White House if Biden is elected.]   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:50 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Tail hedge: he explains the logic of how to make a portfolio ergodic by cutting the left tail.   Permalink 9:27 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb News is misleading. They froze the assets of bank OWNERS & managers. Permalink 6:54 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Grrrrrrrreat news! The Cascade has started. Next in line: #RiadPonzi (Fakkét l masb7a!)   Permalink 6:40 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those in quarantine (self-imposed or involuntary), a though problem by @SrinivasR1729 Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Those who mistake absence of evidence for evidence of absence (like these morons) end up leaving the gene pool, except that here they endanger others.   Permalink 10:39 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) Ricardo got the point but missed on its analytical consequences. Permalink 8:24 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Its time to take action to stop COVID-19. Join our volunteers working at local and regional levels to help contain the virus. Email with your state and county information to join the team @nntaleb Permalink 8:05 PM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And… when you finish one volume, start a new one. Technical Incerto Volume 2 Permalink 9:11 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Add this smearer @Berti74 Permalink 7:22 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Neo-nazis, like Quillettists, are statistically incompetent, parroting buzzwords like “PCA” Even if correct (it’s not),PCAs, 1)reflect recent endogamy, 2)distances need to be corrected. Entropy: If pple LOOK the same, they ARE the same. See my paper:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:28 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This music must be coming from deep Anatolia/East Med, before these languages came to the region.   Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Yaneer explains the payoff from “panic”. If you reduce the connectivity between people the rate drops & we are nonlineaely out of the woods. Hint: the flu season typically starts & ends with the school year.   Permalink 5:00 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Ladino version of Jews from Turkey   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:06 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Few Turks are aware of the fact that they are almost entirely converted Greeks/Armenians/Georgians/Levantines. “Languages travel, genes stay”   Permalink 12:52 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Greek version: Ο ΓΙΑΤΡΟΣ   Permalink 12:44 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Levantine versions of “Aman Doktor” سكابا يا دموع العين   Permalink 12:09 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb EAST MED In spite of what Nordic supremacists have led people to believe, Greeks, Turks, Western Armenians, Anatolian Kurds, & Northern Syrians are the same people. They have the same soul.   Permalink 8:23 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@imleslahdin The way @nntaleb writes is the best model in the world. Not just the content, the whole open process.   Permalink 3:36 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Came home to find hard copies of the new book. Beautiful. This is print on demand, which costs $20 per copy to print (highest quality paper). The volume version should costs $5-7 to print & will be available in 2 months. Meanwhile PDF is free:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:25 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb John Gray is the real deal.   Permalink 5:58 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@DIAS In Istanbul, some friends were singing an old Turkish song “Aman Doktor” in a restaurant. A Greek man walks up to the table and starts singing the same song in Greek (Greeks and Turks share many old folk songs) At the end The 2 men showed great respect to eachother wow Permalink 3:19 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb AVOID PSEUDO-EMPIRICISM Just realized that the point about @CassSunstein style of pseudo-empiricism (common to journos/psychologists of risk and “rationality”) is explicit in Skin In the Game, nontechnical! Permalink 1:50 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb BLOCKING & FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION A twitter feed is NOT an open public forum. It is private. It is like your daily newspaper or your personal classroom. You are free to let in only qualified students. Otherwise noise will overtake your life. Permalink 12:01 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The wisest thing is to preemptively block every journalist — particularly UK and “science” ones.   Permalink 11:55 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Conferences are bad not because of how many people one connects with there, but because they move germs across the planet, de-localize the problem.   Permalink 11:34 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb One heuristic. Whenever you hear “evidence based”, expect probabilistic fraud.   Permalink 10:57 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Blocked the fellow (among others who dangerously advocate “no worry”). Higher fatality rate can actually lower the risk of the disease, make tails thinner. Why? Simply because dead people tend to not take planes, trains subways, & cruises. Even in California. Permalink 10:18 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@perfexcellent When I see this, the more I wish people would follow @nntaleb’s advice that these bodies should be created with a non-negotiable expiry date. Permalink 8:14 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@KaMiller1 Bottom of page 2 above the comic: @nntaleb provides greatest footnote in the history of footnotes. You made my morning, Sir!   Permalink 5:47 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@TulsiGabbard .@realDonaldTrump Remember this?   Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Permalink 4:32 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those still unable to understand that death from multiplicative processes such as corona are NOT to be compared to those from thin-tailed sources, see Chapter 3 of new book:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:28 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is not the base rate fucking fallacy. Please stop using names given by ignorant psychologists to statistical phenomena. Permalink 6:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb There is a marked-to-market problem. Low incidence = low testing. Only places that mark to market properly seem to be Singapore and Bella Italia. Permalink 5:31 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The initial discussion was how intelligent people (in the real sense, that is, people who get stuff) don’t correlate much with those with high IQ scores (IQ scores select for idiots who are good test takers/prone to becoming bureaucrats and slaves of states & large corps). Permalink 4:43 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Why, among public figures, good looking people (actors) are not so intelligent, and intelligent people are not so good looking? (Posed by @joe_shipman) Permalink 3:41 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam We are looking for volunteers for the coronavirus outbreak response. Please DM me if you are willing to help. In order for this to be stopped we need to work together to make it happen. Permalink 3:25 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The entire idea of the INCERTO is that uncertainty makes some decisions muuuuuuch easier. If I am “uncertain” about the skills of the pilot, I take another plane. If I am “uncertain” about an investment, I say no, etc. But Nudgeboy @CassSunstein suggests opposite. Permalink 2:17 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The logical problem with IYIS: we don’t know the risk HENCE let’s ignore it.   Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Most places with “low incidence” are turning out to be places of *low testing*. Includes, of course, the United States.   Permalink 9:58 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The rate of infection drops when fewer people are in enclosed spaces. Singapore has too much AC in the summer.   Permalink 7:11 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@ggreenwald This Boston Globe column says Sanders’ attempt to win the Massachusetts primary is “very disrespectful” to Sen. Warren, a form of “major humiliation,” one that reveals an ugly character flaw of “unbridled ambition” that is “exceedingly off-putting”   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:47 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@kemaunders Thank you to the brilliant team (@nntaleb, Raphael Douady, @financequant, Alicia Bentham Williams, @normonics, @trishankkarthik, Arié H, and Tom Messina) and my fellow participants who made #RWRI 13 an experience that will touch many parts of life. My immediate to do list… Permalink 2:29 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@seandaken THANK YOU Alicia Bentham-Williams @nntaleb Raphael Douady @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @ariehaziza @vergilden and my fellow participants for an incredible week. Found my people. See you at a future #RWRI #RWRI13 #incerto #oneplusminusalpha #cutthetail Permalink 5:06 PM – 28 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Please use # #RWRI not just #RWRI13   Permalink 9:20 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 How simple rules build complex structures with Mathematica code by ⁦@financequant ⁩ Genome cannot explain the conplexity of life Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Life isn’t about getting forecasts “right”; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:10 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The hidden mean: you know that real cases are (at best) equal or higher than reported. Reported = lower bound, not estimate.   Permalink 6:44 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No   Permalink 4:40 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@harshacoach People think of government as an abstract theological entity, not as a collection of individuals without skin in the game @nntaleb at #RWRI Permalink 4:38 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@DellAnnaLuca Tra l’altro, in questo thread qui sotto, la traduzione in italiano di alcuni documenti degli autori sopracitati:   Permalink 4:23 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@flaneurizer @nntaleb does not say directly, but China has same relationship with Hong Kong, milking it for the last 20 years. IYIs shout about China wanting to “crush” Hong Kong, but that’s BS. Just a mafioso maybe overplaying their hand.   Permalink 1:59 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Atheists are just modern versions of religious fundamentalists: they both take religion too literally.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:18 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI   Permalink 4:29 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@RealJamesWoods Thank you, Doug. This is a brilliant assessment of our current situation with the #Wuhan #CoronaVirus. More importantly, as I understand it, taking strong, unpopular steps to implement strategic intervention before the pandemic is catastrophic in America is absolutely critical.   Permalink 12:58 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@bakingVC Forecasters don’t get rich by being right „on average“. Basically, that’s why there are no rich forecasters. #RWRI @nntaleb Permalink 12:38 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The exact discussion at #RWRI about people who don’t get that risk taking is good, under some conditions; and how to defeat sophistry like the one bt this ignorant fellow @realYuriOrlov that “no systemic multiplicative tail exposures” is not “take no risks” at all.   Permalink 10:59 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@normonics .@nntaleb currently discussing how social media is a return to a more natural communication pattern, a return from central media gatekeepers #RWRI #RWRI13 #lindy   Permalink 8:53 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@JacobGnther1 “I live in a cave. There are no corners in my house…” #RWRI @nntaleb Permalink 6:27 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@NachoOliveras Day 2 of #rwri13 just taking off! 1/n Permalink 6:02 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@ErikByronTaylor Learned yesterday why guy in the slide is NOT irrational. (Took liberty of updating slide to read Corona instead of Ebola to make it more timely #photoshop) #RWRI #rwri13 Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible.   Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible.   Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@seandaken Having a blast at #RWRI in NYC with @nntaleb and ~65 others Permalink 7:41 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13   Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13   Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @POTUS @realDonaldTrump @ErikSchatzker #Negotiations #TheArtoftheDeal #hitfirst Permalink 6:07 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I mean infections. Permalink 6:46 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The carpenter fallacy. To understand large gains/losses in a Casino roulette, you don’t ask a carpenter, but a probabilist.   Permalink 6:39 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Doctors and the #WHO don’t understand multiplication. They understand medicine (& addition), not multiplication. When we posted this on Jan 26, there were ~1,000 casualties. Today ~79,000. Unless we overreact, at that rate, in 1 month , can reach yuuuge numbers @yaneerbaryam   Permalink 6:38 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam It is time to stop thinking about pandemic response as a medical effort. Physicians are not trained to evaluate economic impacts, to impose actions for cities, and to engage in the social behavioral change that is needed. Permalink 6:29 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Plane and car crashes are neither multiplicative nor systemic. I block anyone comparing fear of multiplicative pandemics to car crashes. Besides, airplane safety is the result of mega-paranoia. Permalink 6:02 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb   Permalink 5:53 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb   Permalink 5:24 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it. Permalink 5:23 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Finally ideas on religions as non comparable items are starting to spread. Permalink 4:56 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You notice that all these overeducated (miseducated) dangerous fools who don’t get precaution are academics into the nudge and “risk and rationality” business.   Permalink 4:47 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Dangerously incompetent man, this @alemannoEU, increasing risk for all of us. Overreacting early is a necessity.   Permalink 4:34 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@Renegade_Masta @save_the_tweet #please Fucking idiot. Worst case =total destruction. Best case = inconvenience + being wrong. You take inconvenience every time. And yes I live in the area. There is no such thing as overreaction. @DellAnnaLuca @nntaleb @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Permalink 3:54 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@bantofu “We need randomness, mess, adventures, uncertainty, self-discovery, near-traumatic episodes, all these things that make life worth living, compared to the structured, fake, and ineffective life of an empty-suit CEO with a preset schedule and an alarm clock” Antifragile-@nntaleb Permalink 8:26 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Be predictable in granting rewards; unpredictable in delivering punishment. Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@ntarunkumar The really important persons in your life are the ones you shouldn’t have to impress. (A personal twist to something I read in @nntaleb ‘s insight on ethics – Bed of Procrustes – and dog ownership). Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb (Each in a different field: philosophers, historians, pol scientists) Erratum: Paul Veyne not Jules. Add: Jane Jacobs, James Scott, E Le Roy Ladurie, etc. Permalink 5:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Answer to who are the (recent) thinkers I don’t find BS vendors? In random order Saul Kripke, Derek Parfit, Elinor Ostrom, Fernand Braudel, Jules Veyne, Tom Holland, Peter Frankopan, Jean-François Revel, Michael Okeshott, Isaac Levi, Russ Roberts, Jon Elster, many,many, many!   Permalink 4:44 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb From Volume 2 of the technical Incerto: Probabilility, Risk, and Convexity. Vol 1 maps to The Black Swan, Vol 2 maps to Antifragile, Vol 3 to Fooled by Randomness & Big Data [so far]   Permalink 4:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@JosephNWalker Taleb’s problem with Knightian uncertainty is that there’s no such thing as non-Knightian uncertainty: Permalink 1:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@alexandersquats   Permalink 3:27 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb TRUE JUSTICE If you really want diversity & protection of minorities suffering workplace prejudice, stop chromo-categorizing — that fake unempirical business. Hire unattractive people. They are the one suffering the most, & deprived of attention. Permalink 3:25 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mistakes: ɕeeb shd be bayy el ɕαrd should be l ɕαrd Permalink 12:14 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb MED PHILOLOGY DUJOUR The Nicene creed in Lebanese… except that these Maronites have the Filoque “L jeeye mn el ɕeeb w el ɕeben” = “qui ex Patre Filioque procedit” Brilliant except for the heresy!   Permalink 11:55 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb L’invidia ha gli occhi e la fortuna è cieca Permalink 8:49 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Gross inconsiderate errors: 1) Ghosn didn’t order an espresso in Arabic, but in the Lebanese Semitic dialect, 3/4 of a language away from Arabic. 2) Beirut was not the “Paris of the Middle East” but the Paris of the Mediterranean.   via @WSJ Permalink 8:45 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Envy is impossible to conceal. It manipulates you; like a tattoo on your forehead, visible to others but not to you. Permalink 8:40 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb A common mistranslation: \sigma is not necessarily volatility.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:46 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Only the hyperparanoid survive.” #RWRI   Permalink 7:12 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 7) Results are pouring in! For the Pareto IV (The semi Bell Shaped one-tailed power law. Permalink 3:22 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Taking a class on rationality and probability by @sapinker Pinker is equivalent to +Being taught foie gras preparation by a lifetime vegan. +Being taught random matrix theory by one of the Kardashians.   Permalink 1:40 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@EdmondShami That’s why you shouldn’t trust communists (since they call each other “rafiq”) The Bed of Procrustes, NNT Permalink 1:11 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hilarious!   Permalink 12:48 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@Extrachelle 1 essential secret of a good cook: Generosity. Stinginess destroys recipes. Permalink 9:58 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters It’s because reality unfolds over time, not over a statistical ensemble. @nntaleb just did a nice illustration of that, using Kelly-type arguments.   Permalink 9:50 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters Speaking of insurance, here’s how Rothschild and Stiglitz modeled it in 1976. I think @mikeandallie would agree that Berkshire Hathaway would be bankrupt if they were to apply this theory to their insurance business. Permalink 9:43 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 6) Predictably, for fat tails it is worrrrrrrrrrrrrrrse!!! Permalink 8:11 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Voila. Sans abonnement. Permalink 7:35 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 5) In continuous time: the lower bound for a real fair game, not a Mickey Mouse™ bet like this ignorant Thaler. Permalink 7:33 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La photo est horrrrrrrible.   #Postillon via @LePoint Permalink 3:53 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Je descends dans un hôtel à Paris où habitait André Malraux. Pas de plaque. Même les gens de l’hôtel ne le savent pas.   Permalink 3:47 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam They let people off Diamond Princess, put them on planes and busses and sent them home. Amazing they thought a 14 day group “quarantine” would help. Instead it spread infection in the group. Shows they don’t understand how infections work.   Permalink 6:46 PM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) In other words a single bet per lifetime is linear, more than one bet requires compounding. Nudgeboy Richard Thaler must be stopped from messing with things he does not understand. Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Back in New York after 7 weeks absence. Permalink 5:39 PM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The problem with Bloomberg is not his competence; he has the charisma of a plate of reheated-but-lukewarm unsalted fried cauliflowers. Permalink 9:12 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It does not mean: 1) Take investment advice from anyone who doesn’t have to work for a living. 2) Never take advice from those who work (note the “has to”). I am glad many rigor vigilantes are correcting errors by commentators.   Permalink 8:04 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I have been watching reschedulings for 38 years, since the 1982 LatAm debacle. (Remember I specialize in financial crises). No airline had to worry. @dan_azzi should not say these things without some empirical rigor. Permalink 8:01 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@Lucas_Erik_ Via twitter and his books, @nntaleb has shown me more truth in a month than all my 4 years of college classes combined. He teaches you how to think about something in a way where you can apply it to a different subject entirely. Teaching how to fish instead of giving a fish.   Permalink 1:59 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb @beirut_banyan Actually, 1. Permalink 1:06 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@mcsorley_pete “Of what use is a philosopher who doesn’t hurt anybody’s feelings?” —Diogenes of Sinope Permalink 9:29 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) The Mathematica file. Permalink 8:07 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb How you *will* eventually go bust on a fair bet: Explaining the Kelly/Shannon/Thorp result & beyond. (& why nudgeboy Richard Thaler @R_Thaler has a serious, serious problem, aside from his other mistakes ).   Permalink 8:05 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) My heuristic: if a podcast has had someone like Sam Harris @SamHarrisOrg on, I avoid both listening to & participating in, it. It may be imperfect but the trick cleans up scientism, BS, & absence of scholarship. My allergic reactions to BS have been exacerbated with time. Permalink 7:09 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb As I said above in the thread, IYI robin @robinhanson will not infect himself.   Permalink 6:04 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I did not podcast in 2019; will do 1 in 2020 w/ @EconTalker on “Uninformative (less politely, “BS”) metrics in social science” (stat under fat tails, correlation BS, IQ, etc.), largely bec. of long private 2-way conversations. Will cover the new tech book.   Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The reason:filtering. I don’t take chances; I block quickly. The minute I smell sloppy reasoning.   Permalink 4:13 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Academics are usually all talk: @robinhanson is a bullshitter; don’t expect him to go infect himself.   Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 1 million depositors (erratum) Permalink 3:55 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No, no, no. False claims on my behalf, @dan_azzi My point is quantitative: 12 Bil to pay next 2 y. If you don’t believe in miracles, you will certainly default on a depleted treasury! Meanwhile $4 bil to be paid for rich bondholders satisfy >1 billion depositors (# TK)   Permalink 1:44 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@jaszo “Fasting can turn any meal into a Michelin 3 star.” -@nntaleb Permalink 1:07 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@kantynho00 Thread by @nntaleb: Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality,exity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead o   Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb East Med Philology du Jour: Today is the day of Theodorus of Tyre. Did you ever wonder why the names Atallah and Atiyeh (as in Michael Atiyah) are only used by Levantine Christians)? Theodorus = gift of God. Atiyeh is the Canaanite version of Atallah Note also: Dorothy. Permalink 4:18 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3ashu natrin? Ken lézeém n3mol rescheduling bi kénun 2bl l Eurobond l sebe2. 3ajjlo ya shabeb 2abl ma tkhrab aktar.   Permalink 6:50 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Discovering Permalink 5:35 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Can you explain, @Fontainebleau ?   Permalink 5:33 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard?   Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard?   Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Same with bailouts.   Permalink 3:26 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari is a quack.   Permalink 1:51 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari’s public activities now occupy a staff of twelve. Mine: staff of 0. Why? Simply, I don’t do speaking and interviewing, etc. Except when very bored. Permalink 1:44 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Indeed my dimenionality/teleology argument converges to the Hayekian argument.   Permalink 9:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “If something looks irrational —and has been so for a long time —odds are you have a wrong definition of rationality.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:50 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) Human societies are multiscale: the properties of single individuals *do not* predict those of groups, something he never got with the selfish gene BS. Permalink 7:36 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality, complexity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead of time *what* to select for.   Permalink 7:35 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) For instance Seneca’s fortune was 300M sesterces, which translates into 75 M dinarii… It takes yeaaaaars to clean up these details. Permalink 6:17 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Also used the wrong currency (“dirarii”), etc. Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The INCERTO has been continuously modified for (so far minor) errors. 1) ANTIFRAGILE:”Roman engineers forced to sleep under the bridge” was qualified as apocryphal, but architects in Asia Minor were still accountable. 2) Some refs to psych. progressively removed. Permalink 5:25 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Which is my way of announcing that Skin in the Game is out in paperback.   Permalink 2:27 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Belittling a powerful asshole = iconoclast. Belittling a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 2:23 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Ignore the bullshitters and note: 1) Bond defaults are routine, in 99.9 % of cases creditors help work out a solution. Ignore lurid non-collaborative cases by scaremongers (Argentina). 2) Gold belongs to the BDL, not to the state, which is shielded. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 11:47 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mr. Hanson, I have called people “imbecile” for vastly more intelligent comments. Permalink 8:35 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Before bloviating on the consequences of a default, ask international bonds legal specialists like @camilleasleiman rather than bullshit artists. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 8:20 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Eurobond payment must NOT be made 1) Insult to depositors (lack of symmetry).Phoenicians 2700 y. ago had more sophisticated rules of risk sharing! 2) Harms OTHER bondholders 3) Default is inevitable; fail EARLY, come CLEAN Those advocating payment are shills or LUNATICS Permalink 8:06 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hanson, @robinhanson, you don’t seem to get what skin in the game means (nor do you have a faintest clue what betting is, another story). Skin in the game REQUIRES you to infect yourself NOW!   Permalink 7:56 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La bureaucratie est un outil pour couper certaines personnes des conséquences de leur actions. [Meilleure traduction]   Permalink 7:38 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The best argument in favor of skin in the game: it can help us get rid of dangerous lunatics & riskblind IYIs before they harm the rest of mankind.   Permalink 7:23 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The dynamics above show how nudgeboy @R_Thaler can’t get it: + You MUST turn down most favorable odds because 1) life is not a one period model, and 2) they lead to total bankruptcy. + Mental accounting is an optimal strategy, not “irrational”. Permalink 6:42 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Fixed the colors in the graph Permalink 4:53 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb What Samuelson didn’t get is that the Kelly point is the UPPER bound not necessarily the target –just as Shannon’s capacity. One can simply cut one’s portfolio in half and satisfy his criticism.   Permalink 5:14 PM – 14 Feb 2020

@PavelMordasov “It takes some humanity to feel sympathy for those less fortunate than us; but it takes honor to avoid envying those who are much luckier.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 8:23 AM – 13 Feb 2020

@DrMichaelBonner ‘The Last Empire of Iran’ is now in print!   Permalink 8:49 AM – 12 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Trust those who are greedy for money a thousand times more than those who are greedy for credentials.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:34 AM – 10 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Sometimes you run in daily life into people who heap abuse on the internet: they cower. Absence of #skininthegame is a problem.   Permalink 8:07 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@otrasenda_AC Maybe is also a lack of #skininthegame on social networks… If you act as an asshole in real live you might get a punch in the face Permalink 7:10 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Maestro A. Al-Jallad @Safaitic offering me his book in a café in Columbus OH. Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “The only people who think that real world experience doesn’t matters are those who never had real world experience.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:14 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #Localism (The fellow is making me aware of my own aphorisms)   Permalink 6:15 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb We need more data but that’s the way to do it: estimations from reliable subsamples.   Permalink 4:56 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Getting out of control   Permalink 4:54 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@imleslahdin Left-Socialism-Brutalism Right-Traditionalist-Classical Polarizing.   Permalink 12:16 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@RonPaul Did you catch our interview with Democratic Party presidential candidate @TulsiGabbard? Find out what she thinks about her own party shutting her out of the debates:   Permalink 3:42 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Behavioral economics can be summarized as follows: “humans are idiots”. My message: “Maybe, but behavioral economists are most certainly idiots”. Permalink 3:03 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You guys are not getting the joke: I like NJ. It is just that I love NY and there are incompatibilities… Permalink 2:00 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@RonPaul The Only Person That Trump Should Fear On The Debate Stage Is Tulsi Gabbard Watch the whole show with @tulsigabbard here:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:10 AM – 7 Feb 2020