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#Moralhazard, @SamHarrisOrg, @PTetlock, Ioannidis, India, UBI, @R_Thaler & @CassSunstein, LUNACY IN THE UK,

Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens–Coronavirus: A Note (pdf)
T H E  T E C H N I C A L  I N C E R T O  C O L L E C T I O N (460 pg pdf)
Ethics of Precaution: Individual and Systemic Risk (Sign up to download pdf)
Review of Ferguson et al “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions…”(Sign up to download pdf)

@nntaleb We need a hall of shame in this thread. These people got us here owing to the lack of preparation. Murderous idiots!   Permalink 9:44 AM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine extends great thanks to ⁦@GrantSSC⁩ and other twitterlifters for helping with this. Permalink 6:53 AM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Jaffer of course. Make lemons   Permalink 9:01 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@HarryDCrane Cost how many lives?   Permalink 8:17 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@TMFStoffel By the end of Mar, entire country will be on lockdown. Hope it doesn’t take that long If we had listened to @yaneerbaryam, @normonics, and @nntaleb when they issued their warning (Jan 26th, I believe), this wouldn’t be necessary. IF we have guts to do it, recovery starts May 1 Permalink 7:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb There is a suspicion that STAT NEWS which published the Ioannidis article is an Industry shill. It published Henry I. Miller AFTER he was caught working for Monsanto for which he was fired from Stanford and his columns were removed from Forbes.   Permalink 6:30 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Some days I have hordes after me. Some large event happens, and I can do no wrong. Then a quiet period…   Permalink 5:29 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Third conversation with @nntaleb about uncertainty, certainty and what to do when there is systemic risk / what not to do when a truck is headed your way   Permalink 2:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb typo: “instead of” contating you. Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Spyros is both an admirable man & a genuine scholar. — When you disagree with @spyrosmakrid, as a friend, you solve it w/Ouzo personally, never in public. Unlike Phil the rat @PTetlock who mocks you on the web before contacting you.   Permalink 11:42 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@spyrosmakrid Nobody can doubt that the world will now spend tens of trillions to fight the coronavirus while spending would have been minimal in Jan, not to mention all the lives that would have been saved and the trillions of stock market losses avoided. I must admit I was wrong. @nntaleb   Permalink 11:37 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine in Atlanta is looking for a barbell to buy for immediate delivery. Permalink 10:36 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Central aspect of the PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE at the systemic level: it applies to a very narrow set of conditions, centrally: FAT TAILS from multiplicative effects, w/o circuit breakers. The problem w dangerous BS vendors like @SaPinker/@PTetlock is their half training. 1 /n Permalink 10:28 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb My paper on tail option pricing (revealing the equations at UNIVERSA) is under revision by a journal. What happened is not an “outlier” But anyone who after today still says “tail options are expensive” deserves to be put in a sanatorium.   Permalink 9:19 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Ioannidis problem: these pseudoempirical idiots don’t get that INSURANCE is cheaper than catastrophe, which is why under convexity you act early, quickly, and … CHEAPLY. We now spent 2 Trillion when it could have been minimal on Jan 26.   Permalink 8:15 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@jeremias_bosch Right, now this is it. I hated you for so long and now I come back to you @nntaleb like a child that has filled all the oil lamps in the house with water and lived in darkness, out of his own stupidity. Keep on giving them what they deserve. Never stop, never! Permalink 7:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why my forthcoming textbook has a defect in reasoning named after him: the “Pinker problem”, or pseudo-empiricism with systemic variables or fat-tailed domains.   Permalink 7:37 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CONVEXITY OF ECONOMIC EFFECTS FROM PANDEMICS Why the economic costs from pandemics can still grow exponentially even when infection rates slow down. We live in an overoptimized world. Permalink 6:21 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The UK government is borderline psychopathic. Or maybe not borderline. (If true.)   Permalink 5:16 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@jsferjou Bravo @philippejuvin Les médecins «officiels» qui ont décidé il y a qques semaines q les tests (54€ pièce) étaient inutiles ne veulent ni se déjuger ni «engraisser les labos» (témoignage recueilli sous couvert d’anonymat) Contrairement aux masques il n’y a pourtant pas pénurie   Permalink 3:18 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The intuition of what @wtgowers likes about Yaneer’s article is that you’d rather see islands of concentrated infections (pink) & safer areas than evenly distributed. Simply islands have lower concentration than continents/circuit breakers. @dzviovich can you show the automata?   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:07 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fucking idiot my whole point is the asymmetry: how to behave with things we can’t predict. Permalink 12:11 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb My own review is “Ioannidis mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence /recommends to buy insurance AFTER the harm when we now have evidence”. Risk requires asymmetric evidence. Harry Crane has a longer review   Permalink 12:00 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@JackDav88 I cannot speak for Taleb, but his basic point was the Ioannidis is treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence. That’s enough to bring the entire argument down. If you are still arguing for only “data-driven” approaches under uncertainty there is nothing else I can say. Permalink 11:53 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The problem with the Ioannidis article is that it is retweeted by every imbecile in sight as it gives cover to their beliefs.   Permalink 11:51 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Another friend lost his job in the service industry. He immediately found the substitute (what gains from quarantine) & is thriving. He asked to not release the exact industry (for now) so local people don’t take the biz away from him. Permalink 11:33 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntalebbot “It is a very recent disease to mistake the unobserved for the nonexistent; but some are plagued with the worse disease of mistaking the unobserved for the unobservable.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@Firefly_fan @nntaleb commenting John “clueless” Ioannidis:   NAILS IT. Permalink 10:41 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The paper is here. It blew up on Academia   Permalink 10:41 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb MAKE LEMONADE OUT OF LEMONS! Yuuuge hero is @Jaffer22915438: given a shortage of hand sanitizers so he went looking for idle factories, found one, got the products & is now shipping 18,000 units/day. Think how instead of hunkering down you can get aggressive. #Antifragile 1/n   Permalink 9:23 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam .@nntaleb and I discuss superspreaders, lockdowns and how to stop the outbreak   Permalink 7:10 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ioannidis got the reasoning completely BACKWARD. I mean reallllllly backward. In the real world, one must REDUCE RISK in the absence of reliable data, via the MOST ROBUST (model resistant) method. That’s the message of the INCERTO.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:29 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Irresponsible claim. Possible but v. v. highly uncertain. One needs to be blind to make such a strong claim while posting this graph. Just look at the points.   Permalink 9:17 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb A review of Ferguson et al., paper using the U.K. standard model for virus risks, w/@yaneerbaryam Paper underestimates the benefits of a LOCKDOWN. As we saw, SIR-type models fail to capture granularity and difference between individuals and AGGREGATES.…_   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:17 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@joe_shipman MATH PUZZLE FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT @nntaleb He is too busy saving countries from listening to credentialed morons. You cut a circular disk of paper radially to make wedges to be taped into conical paper cups. To maximize total volume you do 2 cups; what should the angles be? Permalink 7:51 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Same with insurance models. Loss from hurricanes aren’t what you think are losses from hurricanes, even if your estimate of the intensity is correct. Why? Because the costs of the material goes up nonlinearly owing to (conditional) excess demand. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I am the ONLY one who is impolite and crass. Others are polite and well behaved (except that Joe is learning to be rude)   Permalink 5:34 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Something UK modelers (idiots) did not get with hospitalization that we traders and modelers in nonlinearities have know since (1997): The market is a large movie theater with a small door. Same for hospital capacity. Gabish? Permalink 5:29 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Nerds: In 2008, The B of England was managing risk w the “Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model” which assumed no banks, NO TAILS & no crises. They got insulted when I called it a fraud. Epidemiologists have similar flaws. No tails from model error. No perturbations.   Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Bravo.   Permalink 3:21 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb So we spend >700bn on imaginary risks from listening to IYI geopoliticians & journos when in fact the true enemy is a virus you pick up doing high five with the bartender. Time to fire the Foreign Affairs/Think Tank establishment, close political “science”depts & reset. Reset. Permalink 12:18 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I laughed so hard people I drank the wrong way & started coughing which scared everyone around me! The “BS Busting” operation seeking to eradicate statistical BS. Permalink 10:09 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Just a reminder that “Risk Parity” is a scam. Permalink 9:59 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The scoop: @realDonaldTrump’s staff relied on OUR memo from Jan 26 (@normonics & @yaneerbaryam), which gave solid grounds to ignore “academic” naive forecasting models estimating low impact from the China virus. #PrecautionaryPrinciple   Permalink 9:14 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb That was 2010.   Permalink 7:30 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The place where: Ramses II, Nebuchadnezzar, Esarhaddon, Caracalla, Napoleon III, etc. left commemorative Stellae. Preserve Nahrl Kalb! Help protect the site from real-estate fraudsters.   Permalink 6:44 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Long walks. 18000 steps yesterday   Permalink 1:40 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Marks my words: 1) @R_Thaler & @CassSunstein will go down as open dangers to society, 2) Thaler’s models have already been debunked so if he is ever remembered, he will be remembered for his fake research.   Permalink 1:28 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb So the methodology (with heuristics we can even teach at #RWRI) is figuring out potential model impact from simple nonlinearity. Alas, many epi models turn into pure hogwash. Nice representation, but unreliable for decision making. Permalink 1:22 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@TalebWisdom “You are free in inverse proportion to the number of people to whom you can’t say “fuck you”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:06 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why you are harming others by not “overreacting”   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:34 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Us vs @sapinker and “evidence based” pseudo-empiricism. From a #RWRI attendant   Permalink 8:47 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. A #RWRI Sunday strip with @nntaleb & @financequant & Raphael Douady. This strip is included in my newest mini-book Nr. 3 available here:   Previous buyers will get a free update per e-mail ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb *My profession=finding holes in models by IYIs I selected SIMPLEST SIR modelto check sensitivity to parametrization/convexity to error, common w/3 nonlinear ODEs. Every refinement to nonlinearM creates EXPLOSION of errors,curseofdimensionality (Yan & Chowellfor improvements) Permalink 8:18 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Here is my code, in case I made mistakes. It’s from the elementary SIR differential equations. Permalink 7:02 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Policy is a speculative lunacy. Playing with the toy standard epidemiological SIR model. We have no idea how model parameters cause a yuuuge variation in ourcomes. We don’t even know the central parameters/whether stochastic. Try to add perturbations for “herd immunity”. Permalink 5:47 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@wael_atallah Thank God there is still some sense in the world! Chocolate Hummus not selling despite the panic. Permalink 1:07 PM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Herd Immunity & ANTIFRAGILITY What drove me bananas is some imbecile who said “it was an antifragile strategy”. NOTHING can be antifragile unless you remove the left tail. I go bananas when people cite me backwards. Permalink 10:42 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Done!   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:23 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #zerohedge #notasafehaven #riskyparity @RayDalio   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 10:09 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Joe Norman, @yaneerbaryam & I did not “react” on Jan 26 with out paper. We had been preparing for the statement since the poor understanding of Ebola’s tail risk. This is from Nov 2018. Permalink 10:08 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I am a risk analyst & probability modeler. Not a virologist. I assumed reinfection possible because of lack of evidence. But if virologists (like this UK a @TheCrisk) state that reinfection is common for other Coronaviruses (this one has too short a life), then CASE CLOSED. Permalink 9:56 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK’s “herd immunity” risk-blind strategy hinges on unempirical psycholophasters’ theory abt “crisis fatigue” & “nudging” BS. Assumes 1) no reinfection 2) hospitals will not be overwhelmed (w secondary deaths), 3) disease must return 4) no vaccine is coming Total IYI Lunacy. Permalink 9:33 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam How to stop an outbreak (and why China won’t have to reimpose restrictions) Squares represent individuals: grey susceptible; yellow latent; red infected and contagious; black deceased or recovered; and light blue are isolated. 1/2   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:43 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb There MUST be laws barring economists from doing regressions, just as there are laws preventing fortune tellers from giving medical advice. @DrCirillo   Permalink 4:41 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And obviously in Aramaic: Syriac and Mishnaic Permalink 2:29 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Apparently there is ستر in Arabic could be cover but so uncommon that I wonder where it is used. Permalink 2:24 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb (Proverbs 27.12) Note the Lebanese “setra” from נסתר (apparently not in Arabic); unless we find an Aramaic equivalen it would be Phoenician. Permalink 2:05 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb יב ערום ראה רעה נסתר פתאים עברו נענשו In Lebanese (literal): L 3aa2l lamma yshuf l khatar baddo l stra, L basit bkammel wbyékela In Lebanese (saying) Alf jabén w la alla yer7amo. #PrecautionaryPrinciple Permalink 1:53 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LUNACY IN THE UK Very clear on “herd immunity” assuming immunity is reached, no permanent damage, and NO VARIANCE for the parameters.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:36 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Only way to counter the fools at 10 Downing is for team w/@yaneerbaryam & @normonics : 1-Pressure US gov to block travel from UK 2-Issue guidelines for UK citizens to protect themselves from both corona & the gov of Boris-the-dupe @BorisJohnson 3- Show errors in epi studies Permalink 9:48 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Full book is here   Permalink 8:45 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The hardest thing to absorb for a “well educated” IYI is: absence of evidence ≢ evidence of absence   Permalink 7:36 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb About everybody seems to be working under the hypothesis that those who recover from the virus are permanently in the SAME condition as those who never got it. Permalink 7:10 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb SKIN IN THE GAME All those in the UK who are in favor of the “herd immunity” BS should self-infect with the virus. Includes ALL decision-makers, science advisors and “Boris no Precaution”. Now. #SkinintheGame is about filtering those with systemic danger out of the system. Permalink 6:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@neilchriss Of course I prefer 90% doors locked to no doors locked. I also prefer Russian roulette with one bullet vs two. Justifying a bad alternative by presenting worse ones is precisely why most people suck at risk. Permalink 6:07 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb   Permalink 5:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb If you don’t like my style, go follow the Washington Post. Never lecture someone on her or his style! Permalink 5:14 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error. Permalink 5:09 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error.   Permalink 5:08 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 41 langues.   Permalink 5:00 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@Premysl_The_Man Over 1000 volunteers for   will fight this. Lower connectivity, now! @yaneerbaryam Permalink 4:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) On Jan 26 when ~1000 infected people we issued our warning on how to handle the pandemic: take no chances, stay ahead of it. Precautionary measures based on symmetry of errors.   Permalink 4:19 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 3) You don’t board a plane w/safety w/p-value of .05 (likely to be miscomputed). If they used their “scientific” approach to risk management no pilot would be alive today. Risk require much more reliability than “evidence based” methods which are backward-looking & flawed. Permalink 4:14 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK NUDGE UNIT 1) Just as before the crisis of 2008-9 I was shouting that economic “experts” were no experts, we will sorely discover that behavioral “experts” are even more unreliable. 2) Even psychs admit behavioral papers replicate <½, that is the reliability of astrology. Permalink 4:09 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb h/t @sothisispietro Permalink 6:49 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Actually, it is not obvious. Medication might be accelerating their problems.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:18 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@TalebWisdom “Automation makes otherwise pleasant activities turn into “work”.” – Nassim Taleb #automation #robotics Permalink 5:41 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The thick paper Permalink 11:08 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Friends, the PDF for the Technical Incerto (expected >2 volumes) will be free.   Two options: (Note Amazon may list with big discount) Permalink 10:55 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@GuruAnaerobic Mayoral hopeful @RoryStewartUK has been retweeting @nntaleb   Permalink 10:24 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@okeyego The point of panic is to prevent the virus from spreading in the first place, imbecile, not to help those already infected with surviving. Permalink 10:00 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@normonics Dear @GovChrisSununu Please see my letter below as well the note we wrote in January that drove the travel restrictions that have bought us time. I submitted this letter on your website as well so you have my contact info there. Please don’t hesitate. Best, Joe Permalink 8:52 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Remember that the US is not a Republic but (still) a Federation. The president can control foreign access, but not what happens in the States/communes. Some States such as NY are ahead of the game; they even ordered their own testing kits. Others so so. #Localism Permalink 8:00 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) Psychologists themselves own that >55% of their results don’t replicate. I’ve shown that 100% of what they do in fat tailed domains is exactly backward.   Permalink 7:12 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb REMINDER: Psychologists as a collective are probability-ignorant BS vendors publishing unrigorous crap. Just a reminder.   Permalink 6:48 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Donaldo: If you own the mahhket on the way up, you will also own it on the way down.   Permalink 6:46 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb SOLUTION: market expects +/- 11.3% swing. This is a classic confusion because operators don’t understand what “volatility” means. Just as psychologists who deal with “correlation” and p-values don’t know what these metrics mean. Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Correct the yuuge error. Hint: in Statistical Consequences of Fat Tail, but won’t tell you where.   Permalink 7:24 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) Point is: all we need to do is slow down the growth, CUT THE TAIL–we can’t eliminate it. Unfair to favor the UK but simpler to execute. The virus is already here so the idea is to let it expire. Our proposal of Jan 26. infections were <1% of today’s   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:01 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, Trump woke up. He understood that the solution is acting NOW in reducing connectivity. 30 days travel ban from Europe is perfect. Let the states ban public transportation/close all gatherings for 30 days. Permalink 6:20 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb What psychologists like this dangerous fellow @vaughanbell call “evidence” is something that fails 55-60% of the time, and has a p~ .05. With a p~.05 no pilot/flight attendant would be alive. Permalink 6:10 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Someone shd ban psychologists from talking probability. New book counters idiots ignorant of Risk & Extreme Value Theory who talk about “evidence”. Soon in hard copy.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:49 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CORONA TRICKS Friends pls add suggestions No fasting >20h No bread (can’t disinfect) unless you bake it yslf No sushi/raw meat No intense exercise. DL 80% max, at risk of detraining No public transp., no valet parking No Thaler/Nudge Unit No bars; if you must No nonalchlc bev Permalink 2:18 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ATTENTION Friends in the UK Beware the recommendations of the “Nudge Unit” and “evidence based” BS. They are more risk creators than mitigators. Learn from Korea, Singapore. In the US, Governor Cuomo is doing the right thing. This is the outline of my paper “nudge sinister”. Permalink 12:56 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The “nudge unit” & “evidence based” will wreck the U.K.   Permalink 10:18 AM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Kluuuuuuelessly dangerous. The fellow @vaughanbell is a psychologist. Invokes “evidence based”: you need “evidence” of a crash before putting your seat belt on. The U.K. is doomed by government listening to “tenured” psychologists and nudge operators, like Thaler & other idiots.   Permalink 10:18 AM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fucking IMBECILE, this was never presented as a “prediction” but as a warning about the fragility of SOME systems as they globalize. Permalink 1:22 PM – 10 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Lesson: Those who panicked early don’t have to panic today. Permalink 11:01 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Explaining “Black Swans” and their connection to Fat Tails in new technical book. Permalink 8:34 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Oh no!   Permalink 8:16 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those who need help reading Permalink 7:38 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@mikeharrisNY As this wise man @nntaleb has said #ES_F $SPX Permalink 6:51 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@paulportesi You just haven’t seen the other side of the distribution. @nntaleb This quote has always stuck with me. Its elegance and power. I never forgot it. Well… We are seeing the other side of the distribution. Permalink 7:13 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb How to Panic If You Must: discussion with @yaneerbaryam   Permalink 5:17 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb BTW, from The Black Swan, in 2007. Permalink 1:21 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The great Cato-the-wise, Cato Sapiens, Cato Censorius, or (in Staten Island, Cato-no-nonsense) would be turning in his grave & characteristically seething with anger at the misuse of his name by that imbecilic institute. PS-As we explained,deaths *lag* infections because…time   Permalink 12:24 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@pierre_fraser Le #coronavirus et les erreurs journalistiques Dans un tweet dont seul @nntaleb a le secret, ce dernier à souligné que « L’Italie ne met pas à risque son économie pour combattre le virus, mais que […] »   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 12:02 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And of course the payment was not made. In spite of pressure by #RiadPonzi & the banksters. Good news.   Permalink 10:44 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@trishankkarthik More reasons not to venerate the cult of the youth:   Permalink 9:35 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb (No, nothing chemical. They are spraying Greek-Orthodox holy water.) Permalink 9:29 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The gym in Amioun (my ancestral village). Yet no virus in the area. Maybe the precautionary mindset in the genes (or, perhaps from the local olive oil). I guess I should go there. Permalink 9:20 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Solution. Joe Shipman tried (and failed) to ruin my weekend. (deleted previous owing to typos ) Permalink 8:06 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Footnote: I framed the Tennis Problem as if it were the COVFEFE riddle. Permalink 7:35 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Beware Journalistic Fallacies Italy is NOT “risking” the economy to fight the virus. It is lowering the risk for the economy by fighting the virus. If the coronavirus proved something, it is that the half-learned (journalist, psychologist) is the greatest danger for mankind. Permalink 7:15 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@Untiroalaire What pisses IYIs off is realizing how untaggable @nntaleb is, while their whole lives have revolved around labelling others. Aim for untaggability. Permalink 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@koushikp Unfortunately despite all your efforts, many haven’t understood the concept of limiting factor. The capacity of the healthcare system isn’t unlimited. So the mortality rate isn’t a linear number as being spewed out across many IYIs across the internet. Permalink 6:41 PM – 7 Mar 2020

#RWRI13, Connectivity,, Contact Between People, virucide, Quillettists, #RiadPonzi, John Gray, Conferences, Sunstein, Superspreader, TRUE JUSTICE, Harari, Dawkins, Hanson, Thaler, George Steiner, Bureaucracy, Localism

@Pascallisch Same is true for animals/evolved cognitive systems. Most false positives for predator detection in foliage are without consequence. A single false negative can be fatal. Raw accuracy is not the point. Permalink 9:11 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb If the word “panic” means “exaggerated” reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one. We MUST reduce connectivity for 20 d to avert a serious problem. We have survived for zillion years thanks to “irrational” “panics”.   Permalink 8:30 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Saying the coronavirus panic is dumb is dumb. #PrecautionaryPrinciple #WittgensteinsRuler   Permalink 7:56 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb “If you see fraud, & you don’t say fraud, you are a fraud”. I provided a list of #RiadPonzi & the banker’s partisans. They also engaged in smearing those who were opposed to paying.   Permalink 4:32 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 1) Predictions don’t count. It’s their payoff, what you do w/them (x is not f(x) ). Academics don’t get it. “Speculators are not paid in true or false, but in $) 2) Indeed, I don’t run the account. But I save the tweets as I am too lazy to have a notebook. Thanks, Cetin.   Permalink 4:19 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Impressive: he was self-taught in Semitic languages. Like our @HsenAndil “Only autodidacts are free” (#Antifragile) Permalink 3:42 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@HomegrownJoan @nntaleb Nurses need help!   Permalink 3:05 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb We hit 400 volunteers!   Permalink 2:53 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb New job   Permalink 2:52 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@paulportesi @nntaleb Wittgenstein ruler   Permalink 2:10 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Possibly the most erudite man in history. He taught himself Semitic Languages & translated Arabic proverbs into Latin. He knew Arabic, Greek, Latin, Hebrew, Syriac/Aramaic. He was to Montaigne (then considered a popularizing philistine) what Umberto Eco was to Fox News.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Just blocked a few who discuss this virus in terms of “predicting” & track record, as Phil the rat @PTetlock & others in the “forecasting” BS are presenting it. When you put your seat belt you aren’t “forecasting” a crash. When you lock your house you aren’t forecasting theft… Permalink 8:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@dancarna Localism in Seattle: the CDC was taking too long with multiple fumbles getting testing kits to us so we made our own. Now we’re able to test 1000 people per day   Permalink 7:49 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@normonics As this thing evolves, remember: we did not hedge. We told you what we saw and what was coming if we failed to take action. Most are too busy hedging to get their head out of the sand.   Permalink 6:39 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@ole_b_peters New blog post. Probability weighting is one of those supposed cognitive biases that evaporate, as far as I can tell, when we think carefully about how to live within time.   Permalink 6:26 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Actually we can show this identity is false: Negative log = log[abs[]]+ i \pi is not really a function, when we solve as 1 rather than 2 integrals we get a residual of \frac{\pi^3}{3}. Otherwise the left integral is something like -5/4 i zeta(3) “offset” by the second integral. Permalink 6:22 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LOCALISM ! Mervyn King understand that city-states shd deal directly with one another, not via some bureaucrat in Brussels/DC Athens had a deal w/Sidon: full rights in both places (at least in Athens, where resident Sidonese were not metics but citizens)   Permalink 5:48 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, Friends, Now that you understand multiplicative and systemic effects, you can get why we worry about GMOs –but not small idiosyncratic risks.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:54 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@MKM_Abdul Precisely what @nntaleb wrote in Antifragile.   Permalink 2:16 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Thanks for the help.   Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Another blue check mark who doesn’t understand 1) multiplicative processes, 2) risk, 3) other stuff. Yet spreading danger. Another one.   Permalink 1:58 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why it is SELFISH to not worry more about the virus than other sources of risk even if it does not affect you as much. Individual precaution does not scale to collective precaution. [Adding to PRINCIPIA POLITICA] Permalink 12:27 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Maestro Statistician Andrew Gelman going (as usual) after nudgeboy @CassSunstein [If you want to be scared, imagine him or concoctista “Rationality Richard” @Richard_Thaler doing some nudging from the White House if Biden is elected.]   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:50 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Tail hedge: he explains the logic of how to make a portfolio ergodic by cutting the left tail.   Permalink 9:27 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb News is misleading. They froze the assets of bank OWNERS & managers. Permalink 6:54 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Grrrrrrrreat news! The Cascade has started. Next in line: #RiadPonzi (Fakkét l masb7a!)   Permalink 6:40 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those in quarantine (self-imposed or involuntary), a though problem by @SrinivasR1729 Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Those who mistake absence of evidence for evidence of absence (like these morons) end up leaving the gene pool, except that here they endanger others.   Permalink 10:39 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) Ricardo got the point but missed on its analytical consequences. Permalink 8:24 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Its time to take action to stop COVID-19. Join our volunteers working at local and regional levels to help contain the virus. Email with your state and county information to join the team @nntaleb Permalink 8:05 PM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And… when you finish one volume, start a new one. Technical Incerto Volume 2 Permalink 9:11 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Add this smearer @Berti74 Permalink 7:22 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Neo-nazis, like Quillettists, are statistically incompetent, parroting buzzwords like “PCA” Even if correct (it’s not),PCAs, 1)reflect recent endogamy, 2)distances need to be corrected. Entropy: If pple LOOK the same, they ARE the same. See my paper:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:28 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This music must be coming from deep Anatolia/East Med, before these languages came to the region.   Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Yaneer explains the payoff from “panic”. If you reduce the connectivity between people the rate drops & we are nonlineaely out of the woods. Hint: the flu season typically starts & ends with the school year.   Permalink 5:00 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Ladino version of Jews from Turkey   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:06 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Few Turks are aware of the fact that they are almost entirely converted Greeks/Armenians/Georgians/Levantines. “Languages travel, genes stay”   Permalink 12:52 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Greek version: Ο ΓΙΑΤΡΟΣ   Permalink 12:44 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Levantine versions of “Aman Doktor” سكابا يا دموع العين   Permalink 12:09 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb EAST MED In spite of what Nordic supremacists have led people to believe, Greeks, Turks, Western Armenians, Anatolian Kurds, & Northern Syrians are the same people. They have the same soul.   Permalink 8:23 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@imleslahdin The way @nntaleb writes is the best model in the world. Not just the content, the whole open process.   Permalink 3:36 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Came home to find hard copies of the new book. Beautiful. This is print on demand, which costs $20 per copy to print (highest quality paper). The volume version should costs $5-7 to print & will be available in 2 months. Meanwhile PDF is free:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:25 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb John Gray is the real deal.   Permalink 5:58 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@DIAS In Istanbul, some friends were singing an old Turkish song “Aman Doktor” in a restaurant. A Greek man walks up to the table and starts singing the same song in Greek (Greeks and Turks share many old folk songs) At the end The 2 men showed great respect to eachother wow Permalink 3:19 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb AVOID PSEUDO-EMPIRICISM Just realized that the point about @CassSunstein style of pseudo-empiricism (common to journos/psychologists of risk and “rationality”) is explicit in Skin In the Game, nontechnical! Permalink 1:50 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb BLOCKING & FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION A twitter feed is NOT an open public forum. It is private. It is like your daily newspaper or your personal classroom. You are free to let in only qualified students. Otherwise noise will overtake your life. Permalink 12:01 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The wisest thing is to preemptively block every journalist — particularly UK and “science” ones.   Permalink 11:55 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Conferences are bad not because of how many people one connects with there, but because they move germs across the planet, de-localize the problem.   Permalink 11:34 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb One heuristic. Whenever you hear “evidence based”, expect probabilistic fraud.   Permalink 10:57 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Blocked the fellow (among others who dangerously advocate “no worry”). Higher fatality rate can actually lower the risk of the disease, make tails thinner. Why? Simply because dead people tend to not take planes, trains subways, & cruises. Even in California. Permalink 10:18 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@perfexcellent When I see this, the more I wish people would follow @nntaleb’s advice that these bodies should be created with a non-negotiable expiry date. Permalink 8:14 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@KaMiller1 Bottom of page 2 above the comic: @nntaleb provides greatest footnote in the history of footnotes. You made my morning, Sir!   Permalink 5:47 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@TulsiGabbard .@realDonaldTrump Remember this?   Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Permalink 4:32 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those still unable to understand that death from multiplicative processes such as corona are NOT to be compared to those from thin-tailed sources, see Chapter 3 of new book:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:28 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is not the base rate fucking fallacy. Please stop using names given by ignorant psychologists to statistical phenomena. Permalink 6:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb There is a marked-to-market problem. Low incidence = low testing. Only places that mark to market properly seem to be Singapore and Bella Italia. Permalink 5:31 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The initial discussion was how intelligent people (in the real sense, that is, people who get stuff) don’t correlate much with those with high IQ scores (IQ scores select for idiots who are good test takers/prone to becoming bureaucrats and slaves of states & large corps). Permalink 4:43 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Why, among public figures, good looking people (actors) are not so intelligent, and intelligent people are not so good looking? (Posed by @joe_shipman) Permalink 3:41 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam We are looking for volunteers for the coronavirus outbreak response. Please DM me if you are willing to help. In order for this to be stopped we need to work together to make it happen. Permalink 3:25 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The entire idea of the INCERTO is that uncertainty makes some decisions muuuuuuch easier. If I am “uncertain” about the skills of the pilot, I take another plane. If I am “uncertain” about an investment, I say no, etc. But Nudgeboy @CassSunstein suggests opposite. Permalink 2:17 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The logical problem with IYIS: we don’t know the risk HENCE let’s ignore it.   Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Most places with “low incidence” are turning out to be places of *low testing*. Includes, of course, the United States.   Permalink 9:58 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The rate of infection drops when fewer people are in enclosed spaces. Singapore has too much AC in the summer.   Permalink 7:11 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@ggreenwald This Boston Globe column says Sanders’ attempt to win the Massachusetts primary is “very disrespectful” to Sen. Warren, a form of “major humiliation,” one that reveals an ugly character flaw of “unbridled ambition” that is “exceedingly off-putting”   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:47 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@kemaunders Thank you to the brilliant team (@nntaleb, Raphael Douady, @financequant, Alicia Bentham Williams, @normonics, @trishankkarthik, Arié H, and Tom Messina) and my fellow participants who made #RWRI 13 an experience that will touch many parts of life. My immediate to do list… Permalink 2:29 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@seandaken THANK YOU Alicia Bentham-Williams @nntaleb Raphael Douady @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @ariehaziza @vergilden and my fellow participants for an incredible week. Found my people. See you at a future #RWRI #RWRI13 #incerto #oneplusminusalpha #cutthetail Permalink 5:06 PM – 28 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Please use # #RWRI not just #RWRI13   Permalink 9:20 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 How simple rules build complex structures with Mathematica code by ⁦@financequant ⁩ Genome cannot explain the conplexity of life Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Life isn’t about getting forecasts “right”; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:10 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The hidden mean: you know that real cases are (at best) equal or higher than reported. Reported = lower bound, not estimate.   Permalink 6:44 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No   Permalink 4:40 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@harshacoach People think of government as an abstract theological entity, not as a collection of individuals without skin in the game @nntaleb at #RWRI Permalink 4:38 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@DellAnnaLuca Tra l’altro, in questo thread qui sotto, la traduzione in italiano di alcuni documenti degli autori sopracitati:   Permalink 4:23 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@flaneurizer @nntaleb does not say directly, but China has same relationship with Hong Kong, milking it for the last 20 years. IYIs shout about China wanting to “crush” Hong Kong, but that’s BS. Just a mafioso maybe overplaying their hand.   Permalink 1:59 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Atheists are just modern versions of religious fundamentalists: they both take religion too literally.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:18 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI   Permalink 4:29 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@RealJamesWoods Thank you, Doug. This is a brilliant assessment of our current situation with the #Wuhan #CoronaVirus. More importantly, as I understand it, taking strong, unpopular steps to implement strategic intervention before the pandemic is catastrophic in America is absolutely critical.   Permalink 12:58 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@bakingVC Forecasters don’t get rich by being right „on average“. Basically, that’s why there are no rich forecasters. #RWRI @nntaleb Permalink 12:38 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The exact discussion at #RWRI about people who don’t get that risk taking is good, under some conditions; and how to defeat sophistry like the one bt this ignorant fellow @realYuriOrlov that “no systemic multiplicative tail exposures” is not “take no risks” at all.   Permalink 10:59 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@normonics .@nntaleb currently discussing how social media is a return to a more natural communication pattern, a return from central media gatekeepers #RWRI #RWRI13 #lindy   Permalink 8:53 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@JacobGnther1 “I live in a cave. There are no corners in my house…” #RWRI @nntaleb Permalink 6:27 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@NachoOliveras Day 2 of #rwri13 just taking off! 1/n Permalink 6:02 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@ErikByronTaylor Learned yesterday why guy in the slide is NOT irrational. (Took liberty of updating slide to read Corona instead of Ebola to make it more timely #photoshop) #RWRI #rwri13 Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible.   Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible.   Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@seandaken Having a blast at #RWRI in NYC with @nntaleb and ~65 others Permalink 7:41 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13   Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13   Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @POTUS @realDonaldTrump @ErikSchatzker #Negotiations #TheArtoftheDeal #hitfirst Permalink 6:07 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I mean infections. Permalink 6:46 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The carpenter fallacy. To understand large gains/losses in a Casino roulette, you don’t ask a carpenter, but a probabilist.   Permalink 6:39 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Doctors and the #WHO don’t understand multiplication. They understand medicine (& addition), not multiplication. When we posted this on Jan 26, there were ~1,000 casualties. Today ~79,000. Unless we overreact, at that rate, in 1 month , can reach yuuuge numbers @yaneerbaryam   Permalink 6:38 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam It is time to stop thinking about pandemic response as a medical effort. Physicians are not trained to evaluate economic impacts, to impose actions for cities, and to engage in the social behavioral change that is needed. Permalink 6:29 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Plane and car crashes are neither multiplicative nor systemic. I block anyone comparing fear of multiplicative pandemics to car crashes. Besides, airplane safety is the result of mega-paranoia. Permalink 6:02 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb   Permalink 5:53 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb   Permalink 5:24 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it. Permalink 5:23 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Finally ideas on religions as non comparable items are starting to spread. Permalink 4:56 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You notice that all these overeducated (miseducated) dangerous fools who don’t get precaution are academics into the nudge and “risk and rationality” business.   Permalink 4:47 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Dangerously incompetent man, this @alemannoEU, increasing risk for all of us. Overreacting early is a necessity.   Permalink 4:34 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@Renegade_Masta @save_the_tweet #please Fucking idiot. Worst case =total destruction. Best case = inconvenience + being wrong. You take inconvenience every time. And yes I live in the area. There is no such thing as overreaction. @DellAnnaLuca @nntaleb @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Permalink 3:54 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@bantofu “We need randomness, mess, adventures, uncertainty, self-discovery, near-traumatic episodes, all these things that make life worth living, compared to the structured, fake, and ineffective life of an empty-suit CEO with a preset schedule and an alarm clock” Antifragile-@nntaleb Permalink 8:26 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Be predictable in granting rewards; unpredictable in delivering punishment. Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@ntarunkumar The really important persons in your life are the ones you shouldn’t have to impress. (A personal twist to something I read in @nntaleb ‘s insight on ethics – Bed of Procrustes – and dog ownership). Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb (Each in a different field: philosophers, historians, pol scientists) Erratum: Paul Veyne not Jules. Add: Jane Jacobs, James Scott, E Le Roy Ladurie, etc. Permalink 5:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Answer to who are the (recent) thinkers I don’t find BS vendors? In random order Saul Kripke, Derek Parfit, Elinor Ostrom, Fernand Braudel, Jules Veyne, Tom Holland, Peter Frankopan, Jean-François Revel, Michael Okeshott, Isaac Levi, Russ Roberts, Jon Elster, many,many, many!   Permalink 4:44 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb From Volume 2 of the technical Incerto: Probabilility, Risk, and Convexity. Vol 1 maps to The Black Swan, Vol 2 maps to Antifragile, Vol 3 to Fooled by Randomness & Big Data [so far]   Permalink 4:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@JosephNWalker Taleb’s problem with Knightian uncertainty is that there’s no such thing as non-Knightian uncertainty: Permalink 1:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@alexandersquats   Permalink 3:27 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb TRUE JUSTICE If you really want diversity & protection of minorities suffering workplace prejudice, stop chromo-categorizing — that fake unempirical business. Hire unattractive people. They are the one suffering the most, & deprived of attention. Permalink 3:25 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mistakes: ɕeeb shd be bayy el ɕαrd should be l ɕαrd Permalink 12:14 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb MED PHILOLOGY DUJOUR The Nicene creed in Lebanese… except that these Maronites have the Filoque “L jeeye mn el ɕeeb w el ɕeben” = “qui ex Patre Filioque procedit” Brilliant except for the heresy!   Permalink 11:55 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb L’invidia ha gli occhi e la fortuna è cieca Permalink 8:49 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Gross inconsiderate errors: 1) Ghosn didn’t order an espresso in Arabic, but in the Lebanese Semitic dialect, 3/4 of a language away from Arabic. 2) Beirut was not the “Paris of the Middle East” but the Paris of the Mediterranean.   via @WSJ Permalink 8:45 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Envy is impossible to conceal. It manipulates you; like a tattoo on your forehead, visible to others but not to you. Permalink 8:40 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb A common mistranslation: \sigma is not necessarily volatility.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:46 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Only the hyperparanoid survive.” #RWRI   Permalink 7:12 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 7) Results are pouring in! For the Pareto IV (The semi Bell Shaped one-tailed power law. Permalink 3:22 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Taking a class on rationality and probability by @sapinker Pinker is equivalent to +Being taught foie gras preparation by a lifetime vegan. +Being taught random matrix theory by one of the Kardashians.   Permalink 1:40 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@EdmondShami That’s why you shouldn’t trust communists (since they call each other “rafiq”) The Bed of Procrustes, NNT Permalink 1:11 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hilarious!   Permalink 12:48 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@Extrachelle 1 essential secret of a good cook: Generosity. Stinginess destroys recipes. Permalink 9:58 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters It’s because reality unfolds over time, not over a statistical ensemble. @nntaleb just did a nice illustration of that, using Kelly-type arguments.   Permalink 9:50 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters Speaking of insurance, here’s how Rothschild and Stiglitz modeled it in 1976. I think @mikeandallie would agree that Berkshire Hathaway would be bankrupt if they were to apply this theory to their insurance business. Permalink 9:43 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 6) Predictably, for fat tails it is worrrrrrrrrrrrrrrse!!! Permalink 8:11 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Voila. Sans abonnement. Permalink 7:35 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 5) In continuous time: the lower bound for a real fair game, not a Mickey Mouse™ bet like this ignorant Thaler. Permalink 7:33 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La photo est horrrrrrrible.   #Postillon via @LePoint Permalink 3:53 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Je descends dans un hôtel à Paris où habitait André Malraux. Pas de plaque. Même les gens de l’hôtel ne le savent pas.   Permalink 3:47 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam They let people off Diamond Princess, put them on planes and busses and sent them home. Amazing they thought a 14 day group “quarantine” would help. Instead it spread infection in the group. Shows they don’t understand how infections work.   Permalink 6:46 PM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) In other words a single bet per lifetime is linear, more than one bet requires compounding. Nudgeboy Richard Thaler must be stopped from messing with things he does not understand. Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Back in New York after 7 weeks absence. Permalink 5:39 PM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The problem with Bloomberg is not his competence; he has the charisma of a plate of reheated-but-lukewarm unsalted fried cauliflowers. Permalink 9:12 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It does not mean: 1) Take investment advice from anyone who doesn’t have to work for a living. 2) Never take advice from those who work (note the “has to”). I am glad many rigor vigilantes are correcting errors by commentators.   Permalink 8:04 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I have been watching reschedulings for 38 years, since the 1982 LatAm debacle. (Remember I specialize in financial crises). No airline had to worry. @dan_azzi should not say these things without some empirical rigor. Permalink 8:01 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@Lucas_Erik_ Via twitter and his books, @nntaleb has shown me more truth in a month than all my 4 years of college classes combined. He teaches you how to think about something in a way where you can apply it to a different subject entirely. Teaching how to fish instead of giving a fish.   Permalink 1:59 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb @beirut_banyan Actually, 1. Permalink 1:06 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@mcsorley_pete “Of what use is a philosopher who doesn’t hurt anybody’s feelings?” —Diogenes of Sinope Permalink 9:29 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) The Mathematica file. Permalink 8:07 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb How you *will* eventually go bust on a fair bet: Explaining the Kelly/Shannon/Thorp result & beyond. (& why nudgeboy Richard Thaler @R_Thaler has a serious, serious problem, aside from his other mistakes ).   Permalink 8:05 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) My heuristic: if a podcast has had someone like Sam Harris @SamHarrisOrg on, I avoid both listening to & participating in, it. It may be imperfect but the trick cleans up scientism, BS, & absence of scholarship. My allergic reactions to BS have been exacerbated with time. Permalink 7:09 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb As I said above in the thread, IYI robin @robinhanson will not infect himself.   Permalink 6:04 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I did not podcast in 2019; will do 1 in 2020 w/ @EconTalker on “Uninformative (less politely, “BS”) metrics in social science” (stat under fat tails, correlation BS, IQ, etc.), largely bec. of long private 2-way conversations. Will cover the new tech book.   Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The reason:filtering. I don’t take chances; I block quickly. The minute I smell sloppy reasoning.   Permalink 4:13 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Academics are usually all talk: @robinhanson is a bullshitter; don’t expect him to go infect himself.   Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 1 million depositors (erratum) Permalink 3:55 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No, no, no. False claims on my behalf, @dan_azzi My point is quantitative: 12 Bil to pay next 2 y. If you don’t believe in miracles, you will certainly default on a depleted treasury! Meanwhile $4 bil to be paid for rich bondholders satisfy >1 billion depositors (# TK)   Permalink 1:44 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@jaszo “Fasting can turn any meal into a Michelin 3 star.” -@nntaleb Permalink 1:07 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@kantynho00 Thread by @nntaleb: Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality,exity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead o   Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb East Med Philology du Jour: Today is the day of Theodorus of Tyre. Did you ever wonder why the names Atallah and Atiyeh (as in Michael Atiyah) are only used by Levantine Christians)? Theodorus = gift of God. Atiyeh is the Canaanite version of Atallah Note also: Dorothy. Permalink 4:18 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3ashu natrin? Ken lézeém n3mol rescheduling bi kénun 2bl l Eurobond l sebe2. 3ajjlo ya shabeb 2abl ma tkhrab aktar.   Permalink 6:50 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Discovering Permalink 5:35 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Can you explain, @Fontainebleau ?   Permalink 5:33 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard?   Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard?   Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Same with bailouts.   Permalink 3:26 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari is a quack.   Permalink 1:51 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari’s public activities now occupy a staff of twelve. Mine: staff of 0. Why? Simply, I don’t do speaking and interviewing, etc. Except when very bored. Permalink 1:44 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Indeed my dimenionality/teleology argument converges to the Hayekian argument.   Permalink 9:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “If something looks irrational —and has been so for a long time —odds are you have a wrong definition of rationality.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:50 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) Human societies are multiscale: the properties of single individuals *do not* predict those of groups, something he never got with the selfish gene BS. Permalink 7:36 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality, complexity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead of time *what* to select for.   Permalink 7:35 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) For instance Seneca’s fortune was 300M sesterces, which translates into 75 M dinarii… It takes yeaaaaars to clean up these details. Permalink 6:17 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Also used the wrong currency (“dirarii”), etc. Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The INCERTO has been continuously modified for (so far minor) errors. 1) ANTIFRAGILE:”Roman engineers forced to sleep under the bridge” was qualified as apocryphal, but architects in Asia Minor were still accountable. 2) Some refs to psych. progressively removed. Permalink 5:25 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Which is my way of announcing that Skin in the Game is out in paperback.   Permalink 2:27 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Belittling a powerful asshole = iconoclast. Belittling a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 2:23 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Ignore the bullshitters and note: 1) Bond defaults are routine, in 99.9 % of cases creditors help work out a solution. Ignore lurid non-collaborative cases by scaremongers (Argentina). 2) Gold belongs to the BDL, not to the state, which is shielded. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 11:47 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mr. Hanson, I have called people “imbecile” for vastly more intelligent comments. Permalink 8:35 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Before bloviating on the consequences of a default, ask international bonds legal specialists like @camilleasleiman rather than bullshit artists. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 8:20 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Eurobond payment must NOT be made 1) Insult to depositors (lack of symmetry).Phoenicians 2700 y. ago had more sophisticated rules of risk sharing! 2) Harms OTHER bondholders 3) Default is inevitable; fail EARLY, come CLEAN Those advocating payment are shills or LUNATICS Permalink 8:06 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hanson, @robinhanson, you don’t seem to get what skin in the game means (nor do you have a faintest clue what betting is, another story). Skin in the game REQUIRES you to infect yourself NOW!   Permalink 7:56 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La bureaucratie est un outil pour couper certaines personnes des conséquences de leur actions. [Meilleure traduction]   Permalink 7:38 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The best argument in favor of skin in the game: it can help us get rid of dangerous lunatics & riskblind IYIs before they harm the rest of mankind.   Permalink 7:23 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The dynamics above show how nudgeboy @R_Thaler can’t get it: + You MUST turn down most favorable odds because 1) life is not a one period model, and 2) they lead to total bankruptcy. + Mental accounting is an optimal strategy, not “irrational”. Permalink 6:42 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Fixed the colors in the graph Permalink 4:53 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb What Samuelson didn’t get is that the Kelly point is the UPPER bound not necessarily the target –just as Shannon’s capacity. One can simply cut one’s portfolio in half and satisfy his criticism.   Permalink 5:14 PM – 14 Feb 2020

@PavelMordasov “It takes some humanity to feel sympathy for those less fortunate than us; but it takes honor to avoid envying those who are much luckier.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 8:23 AM – 13 Feb 2020

@DrMichaelBonner ‘The Last Empire of Iran’ is now in print!   Permalink 8:49 AM – 12 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Trust those who are greedy for money a thousand times more than those who are greedy for credentials.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:34 AM – 10 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Sometimes you run in daily life into people who heap abuse on the internet: they cower. Absence of #skininthegame is a problem.   Permalink 8:07 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@otrasenda_AC Maybe is also a lack of #skininthegame on social networks… If you act as an asshole in real live you might get a punch in the face Permalink 7:10 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Maestro A. Al-Jallad @Safaitic offering me his book in a café in Columbus OH. Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “The only people who think that real world experience doesn’t matters are those who never had real world experience.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:14 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #Localism (The fellow is making me aware of my own aphorisms)   Permalink 6:15 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb We need more data but that’s the way to do it: estimations from reliable subsamples.   Permalink 4:56 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Getting out of control   Permalink 4:54 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@imleslahdin Left-Socialism-Brutalism Right-Traditionalist-Classical Polarizing.   Permalink 12:16 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@RonPaul Did you catch our interview with Democratic Party presidential candidate @TulsiGabbard? Find out what she thinks about her own party shutting her out of the debates:   Permalink 3:42 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Behavioral economics can be summarized as follows: “humans are idiots”. My message: “Maybe, but behavioral economists are most certainly idiots”. Permalink 3:03 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You guys are not getting the joke: I like NJ. It is just that I love NY and there are incompatibilities… Permalink 2:00 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@RonPaul The Only Person That Trump Should Fear On The Debate Stage Is Tulsi Gabbard Watch the whole show with @tulsigabbard here:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:10 AM – 7 Feb 2020

Mark Spitznagel on the Coming Market Crash

“No Longer Tethered to the Fundamentals”: A Nassim Taleb Protégé on How to Prepare for the Coming Market Crash

Working with the economist (and his former professor at NYU) Nassim Nicholas Taleb —the author of the 2007 best seller, The Black Swan (Spitznagel is working on new book, Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms, for which Taleb is writing the foreword)—as an adviser, Spitznagel’s hedge fund has come up with a strategy to help big investors—for instance pension funds and endowment funds—protect their portfolios against the coming correction.

HatTip to Dave Lull

Fat Tony, NJ, Pandemics, Harari , coronavirus, panic early, Tesla, AUSTRALIA, IQ, Coach Rippetoe, Iran, Soleimani, Ghosn, HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019, Negronis,

Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications


@nntaleb Fat Tony lives in NJ; but he self defines as “from Brooklyn”. “It’s that bridge, you know”. Permalink 10:14 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Comments on New Jersey in The Incerto… one of many Permalink 9:18 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I wonder what is scaring them the most: the virus or being forced to stay in New Jersey.   Permalink 7:32 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Also there is a focus on AI, machine learning, and data science, away from traditional idiotic business school finance. Permalink 7:01 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Our NYU Tandon School of Engineering Fin program is becoming increasingly successful, largely because of the link to the real world. Both Peter Carr & yours truly come from practice, and have developed our research WHILE in practice. @nyutandon @NYUFRE   Permalink 6:52 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Speculative Mediterranean Philology DuJour: Question. Moustaki/Mustacchi/Μουστακί/ς Μουστάκας does not seem to have a real Greek origin. Could it come from the Semitic مستقي\ مشطقّي؟\مصطقّي ? Note the Italian c+ch = قّ Permalink 12:14 PM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb For instance: Lebanese deposits #Lebanon   Permalink 10:50 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@otrasenda_AC Para mi es claro que para entender la salud humana de forma integral, así como para prevenir y hacer frente a epidemias como la actual, necesitamos un enfoque complejo @redcompleja que permita por ejemplo valorar estos riesgos ver la nota de @normonics, @yaneerbaryam y @nntaleb Permalink 10:49 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “In the medical and social domains, treatment should never be equivalent to silencing symptoms.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 6:24 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Salibi was a BS vendor: into historical fabrication, relied upon by Arab fascists to destroy #Localism & Med Cosmopolitanism. Never ever cite Salibi for anything. For instance, his story of the Yemen exodus (Marib dam) was debunked by population genetics (@PZalloua).   Permalink 6:15 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Will give a remote lecture in @spyrosmakrid’s class.   Permalink 6:08 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Another distinguishing feature: Photius was a lay person and a yuuge erudite. There are antecedents allowing lay people to become patriarchs of Constantinople, the highest calling for any orthodox, in case someone is interested.   Permalink 5:32 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb PRINCIPIA   Permalink 7:30 PM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Total victims (reported) are now ~20,000. When we did these piece, the number was about 1,000. Multiplicative processes. Einstein has a saying (attributed to him) about the force of compound interest.   Permalink 7:23 PM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb An MD may know a lot of clinical stuff (though not always) but cannot comprehend multiplicative processes. So they should shut the f**k up when it comes to these risks. Called “carpenter fallacy” w/ the GMO problem: to understand risks of roulette, know probability not carpentry.   Permalink 12:04 PM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Friends, my book is here. Easier to read than ArXiv. You can also add comments.   Permalink 12:04 PM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Solved! Ignore, take a walk, come back and the solution comes out. Permalink 11:16 AM – 5 Feb 2020

@AllAboutAlpha “Statistician/philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb critiques “behavioral” economics and finance as he looks at the differences between “binary forecasts” and “real world payoffs,” in a recent paper for the International Journal of Forecasting.”   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:50 AM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Actually… proof is TK Permalink 9:45 AM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb My point on homeopathy is that it distracts the patient away from iatrogenics when the disease is within 1 sigma.   Permalink 9:44 AM – 5 Feb 2020

@GCsVentures Meanwhile, I’m learning that Sweden (where I reside & pay taxes) is imposing zero quarantine on people coming from China at the moment. @Folkhalsomynd please don’t blindly follow the @WHO. Enforce quarantines and/or stop influx from China now. Please see   Permalink 9:40 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Pages 8-11 Friends, looking for typos/errors. Thanks again Permalink 9:38 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@statsmartin Yes, @researchersone publishes books! Check out @nntaleb’s latest book “Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails”   Permalink 7:32 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Pages 4-7 Permalink 6:36 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Reposting (corrected) pages 1-3 (single page, easier to read) Permalink 6:25 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Friends, the draft of the transcription of a lecture I gave at the Leopoldina academy on how RISK & PARANOIA are misunderstood by psychologists & BS vendors. Part 1, for comments Permalink 6:20 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The ting about these puzzles is that you always think it is a 15 min morning exercise, but they have a totally stochastic stopping time. This, unexpectedly, took houuuuuuuuuuuuuurs! Permalink 6:26 PM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb This s***t cost me half my Sunday! Tough, tough! Permalink 6:07 PM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Expect more BS like this one by @johnpilger   Permalink 5:12 PM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The Black Swan (2007) discusses the risks of a virus spreading owing to the increased connectivity in the modern environment. Connectivity increases fattailedness. We were never as connected as we were 10 days ago. Permalink 7:09 AM – 2 Feb 2020

@JamesMarsh79 I remember when @nntaleb @financequant debated the risks of an outbreak at #rwri, nassim mentioned that hospitable might not even be open because staff wouldn’t show up. Wise   Permalink 7:04 AM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Sunday morning workout. Permalink 6:19 AM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The type of fake empiricism we @yaneerbaryam and @normonics are trying to correct. Note it is almost ALWAYS a journo or a psychologist (@qhardy) making such irresponsible claim. Lightning strikes are not multiplicative, hence thin-tailed.   Permalink 6:18 AM – 2 Feb 2020

@yannispetro Similar to drinking a drop of tap water every time you visit India @nntaleb @SavvasSalou @JennyKechagia   Permalink 2:02 PM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR   Permalink 1:57 PM – 1 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “It is much harder to become independent if you are wealthy than to become wealthy if you are independent.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 12:06 PM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Right to left… Or, better, random order   Permalink 9:45 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb A trivial computation: If IQ mapped to intelligence rather than unintelligence (i.e. <70), where are the 800,000 geniuses? Trivial. Permalink 8:19 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Dear Atlantans, this friend of mine is in Atlanta and looking for a Calabese barber or possibly any Mediterranean barber shop a la old country style (where barbers have a heavy accent). Can anyone help? Permalink 7:17 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@yvespatte Il y a quelques jours, pendant que des éditorialistes nous disaient qu’il n’y avait pas à s’inquiéter du coronavirus, des chercheurs spécialisés en risk management et en système complexe, @normonics, Yaneer Bar-Yam et @nntaleb, publiaient ce papier :   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:45 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@LaikiEksixroni1 @nntaleb lets bring Lebanon to the where it belongs   Permalink 2:39 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mathematicians think in proofs, lawyers in constructs, logicians in operators, dancers in movement, artists in impressions, drummers in rythms, and idiots in labels. Bed of Procrustes. Permalink 5:14 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) I feel safe traveling in the US over the next month. Permalink 3:20 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb GREAT NEWS. We are told that our article helped move the needle as the US government has taken the rational precautionary measures we advocated. @normonics   Permalink 2:39 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Some background: the alt-right, Charles Murray et al, Nordic supremacists & eugenists, are bothered by my IQ article. Murray is circulating “debunkings” by some bloggist.   Permalink 2:32 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@mikeandallie (1/3) I’ve learned an enormous amount from @nntaleb in the last 4 or 5 years about what it means to pursue math away from academia. It isn’t simply a matter of depth of knowledge, though, it is his fearlessness with doing math in public and his ability to explain deep +. Permalink 2:27 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A reminder of Charles Murray as a fake scholar.   Permalink 2:00 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Something that grows at a rate of >10% a day is a problem (here potentially 25%). We need to constrain its growth. Every point counts! 6-9 months would be a disaster.   Permalink 3:40 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Hurricanes are not multiplicative. Some viruses are. Permalink 3:37 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Apparently the person holding up the precautionary measures to constrain mobility is a son of Amioun: Health Secretary Alex Azar @SecAzar who, unlike another son of Amioun*, doesn’t get precautionary principles in a complex interactive system. *Amioun is our village of origin   Permalink 2:46 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@chasechandler This is the problem with term “evidence based.” Almost always used with great ignorance of emergence and downside asymmetry. Permalink 12:31 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@normonics WORST possible recommendation. This is why we can’t subject ourselves to global scale policy. This is an outrageous statement #coronavirus   Permalink 12:05 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@johncarlosbaez Thanks, Eric. Alas, I have a kind of allergy to shows where bigshots get interviewed about stuff. Permalink 11:47 AM – 30 Jan 2020

@hugowiz «If we don’t understand something and it has a systemic effect, just avoid it.» Skin in the game @nntaleb Permalink 11:39 AM – 30 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Continued in Lebanon: some people are still classified as Rum.   Permalink 11:22 AM – 30 Jan 2020

@BotTradingQuote We have this culture of financialization. People think they need to make money with savings rather with their business. So you end up with dentists who are more traders than dentists. A dentist should drill teeth and use whatever he does in the market for entertainment-@nntaleb Permalink 6:30 AM – 30 Jan 2020

@paulportesi No. @nntaleb has discussed many of tactics on this particular issue. He “trades” in the world markets. I defer to him. Time spent on revenge is never wasted. NNT Revenge is a moral obligation. NNT Revenge isn’t just revenge. It’s a deterrent.” – NNT   Permalink 3:44 PM – 29 Jan 2020

@animangia Now @nntaleb is going to have a Capisch emoji   Permalink 3:28 PM – 29 Jan 2020

@yaneerbaryam Community action for Wuhan Coronavirus pandemic response Permalink 11:26 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@nntaleb He knows something we don’t know. “Boeing CEO David Calhoun: I don’t expect lasting Coronavirus impact”   Permalink 6:38 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The Trump Peace Plan is not about peace and not a plan; it is, simply, punitive capitulation terms a la Versailles. It also ignores Palestinian refugees in Lebanon & elsewhere. Permalink 4:25 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@nntaleb November 4-5 2020   Permalink 3:23 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Final Version of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails finally on ArXiv. Hard copy out soon.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:15 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “You need to realize that the only thing a career academic can really teach you is how to be a career academic.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #books Permalink 2:45 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “If you reject unfounded blame, you must also reject unjustified praise.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 5:40 PM – 28 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Karl Sharro @KarlreMarks plagiarizing again? Permalink 11:43 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@nntalebbot “The curious mind embraces science; the gifted and sensitive, the arts; the practical, business; the leftover becomes an economist” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@GCsVentures Worry about journalists, politicians (and doctors!) not understanding the necessary precautionary principle. Dangerous idiots, literally playing with your lives. Read @nntaleb, @normonics and @yaneerbaryam.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:28 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The cental rule in life is that it is much, much better to panic early than late. Permalink 8:45 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@nntaleb So an Egyptian (Hamitic) writes to a Hittite (Indo-European) in a Semitic Language (Accadian) or am I mistaken? cc:@Safaitic   Permalink 4:21 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@normonics Dean of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong gets it. – we must apply the precautionary principle – we don’t predict, we prepare – we must stop it at the scale of macroscopic mobility patterns @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam an ally   Permalink 8:40 PM – 27 Jan 2020

@maiamajumder I’ve seen a few tweets recently about how R_0 is the mean of a distribution (via @nntaleb) and how its dispersion is important to understand (via @DFisman & @C_Althaus). This is very true (for #nCoV2019 & otherwise), and it’s why I posted this graphic last week. [THREAD] 1/x   Permalink 12:42 PM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb One possible approach Permalink 12:29 PM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Exercise du Jour (Note: Correct Quote is “Easier to buy and sell than fry an egg”.) Permalink 12:00 PM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb FORT LAUDERDALE AIRPORT INFORMATION BOOTH Me: “are there comfortable trains from here to Miami?” Answer (by Information official): “Why don’t you use Google?” Me: “Aren’t you an information desk?” Answer: “Aren’t you able to use Google?” Permalink 11:35 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@JohnCleese The Master and his Emissary by Iain McGilchrist ( for the second time ) and Skin in the Game by Nassim Nicholas Taleb There wasn’t much space for colouring, but I must admit they both coloured my thinking May I recommend ” An Idiots’s Guide to Punctuation ” ?   Permalink 11:22 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb No worries, it is added to the list   Nigel Warburton, a despicable man, does not have the ethics to remove it. Permalink 10:15 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@rperezmarco For sure all the mediterraneans we have more in common than any culture from the inland, and a main characteristic is cosmopolitanism. Makes more sense to me a Mediterranean Union than EU, although I think we are too anarchists for that Permalink 8:01 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “France took Algeria, hoping for a country to eat cassoulet and instead France is now eating couscous.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:37 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 4) Funny translation of his song “Le Meteque”, “Juif errant, et pâtre grec ” sung in Hebrew by Yossi Banai.   Permalink 5:10 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) He was called “Monsieur 1 volt” (contrast w/Becaud’s 100,000 volts”) because of his sterotypical Mediterranean nonchalance. But he was productive without showing it, by spezzatura. Like all cosmopolitan Meds he was a pacifist. He loved Beirut & would have lived there except.. Permalink 5:09 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) He started by writing poetry in French. Like all Trans-Meds, he self identified as Greek though did not speak the language naturally. The Romaniotes are a very small true Greek community: even more Meds than Greco-Phoenicians & Greco-Syrians. Permalink 5:01 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb COSMOPOLITAN MEDITERRANEISM 1) The modern person who represents modern trans-nation-state Mediterraneism is Georges Moustaki. He was Alexandrian, from a Greek-Jewish Romaniote family (on that, next) (father’s name Nessim), spoke Italian at home, French educated; ended in Paris. Permalink 4:58 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The number of people infected is a random variable with huge dispersion; hard to measure and subjected to downward biases in measurement. Permalink 4:46 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Why R_0 should NEVER be discussed by journos. It is a distributional concept, not a metric like the height of a child! Permalink 4:33 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb An explanation of why K_0 is biased big time; miscomputed via moment estimators. Permalink 3:30 PM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Another ignorant journalist dealing with risk matters. Irresponsible.   Permalink 12:31 PM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb As predicted   Permalink 12:18 PM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb No. It ia irresponsible and immoral to pay the Eurobond. #Lebanon   Permalink 12:00 PM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness 101: did they factor in that healthy and energetic people are more likely to go to museums?   Permalink 10:30 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb HOW TO REACT TO PANDEMICS can be dowloaded belo @normonics, @yaneerbaryam #ChinaCoronaVirus #China   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:33 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@Tejlgaard I live 500km from Wuhan. Your analysis is not just correct; I used your principles from the Incerto to stock up in time on nonperishable food for 3 months. I did so before everybody else even thought about it. Now, no non-perishable food remains in most shops. Permalink 8:30 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb My point of crying wolf during the Ebola episode.   Permalink 8:30 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Almost all of psychology texts (on psych of risk) miss the point.   Permalink 8:27 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb “To become a philosopher king, start with being a king, not being a philosopher.” Skin in the Game   Permalink 8:20 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 1) The point is that you can be wrong a zillion times; doesn’t matter if all it takes is once to hit extinction. 2) It’s remarkable how pple who learn statistics become dangerously stupid, like this “professor” @AlexColangelo Car accidents are thin-tailed, never multiplicative Permalink 8:14 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@AEiddddddd Permalink 7:05 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A reminder of the type of arguments that will cause humanity to go extinct. Systematically blocked. Permalink 6:26 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The problem with the China #Coronavirus: Fat Tails and Naive Empiricism a la Cass Sunstein/S Pinker. #RWRI Permalink 4:32 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The journo is an irresponsible imbecile. My talk in Cyprus: without extreme paranoia, we can’t survive. #ergodicity requires ignoring costs-benefits in the presence of ruin problems.   via @nypost Permalink 2:59 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Because, connectivity and tails. WHO are rent seeking idiots.   Permalink 3:48 PM – 25 Jan 2020

@yaneerbaryam When we warned on Ebola people said quarantine was impossible. At least in China urban scale quarantine is seen as an essential way to combat pandemics. We need effective policy — and not wait for global catastrophe to teach us.   @nntaleb Permalink 3:07 PM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Why your body learns disproportionally from tail events.   Permalink 11:43 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #ethics Permalink 8:46 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@hugowiz «All you need to learn are the safety skills to move off the floor at your maximum while avoiding injury. Lindy again: weight lifters have known the phenomenology for at least two and a half millennia.» Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks Permalink 8:19 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) Note: while we know the R_0 of the Flu, we don’t know that of WuFlu. Because it is an average, its small sample properties make it biased downward in measurements. Permalink 7:46 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Sopistry Alert: She is not a public servant. She cannot plunder coffers and or have friends do do. Gebran is a public servant. #BSbustingDuJour   Permalink 5:10 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Interestingly the only pple who talk about “scientific consensus” (aside from GMO shills like @mark_lynas) are journalists, schoolteachers,& other destroyers of science. Science is a rigorous process against consensus, questioning consensus, & debunking consensus.   Permalink 4:34 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “A book is something that can be read ten years after publication. A real book, twenty. Otherwise it is a magazine report with bookbinding.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 4:09 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The fellow is correcting Pinker-style naive empiricism & bogus “rationality”/”realism” (of the type peddled by psychologists). For some things paranoia is necessary for survival. The reproductive factor maps to fat-tailedness. Note: the mortality rate shd increase over time.   Permalink 3:24 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is the kind of thing that makes me …   Permalink 3:18 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Much more elegant Permalink 2:42 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is easier; doesn’t go through offsetting log of negatives. Permalink 2:16 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The sucker problem is to answer lim=1. Permalink 2:04 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Friday distraction with a small sucker problem. Permalink 1:24 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb My idea of rationality: ergodicity & survival under true distributions.   Permalink 12:50 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb New Harvard Course: “Pseudo-Empiricism” or “Scientism 101”   Permalink 11:20 AM – 24 Jan 2020

@sergesapiens Mnunchin is a lost cause. At least Greta gets fat tail risk of messing up with nature. ⁦@GretaThunberg⁩ , I recommend you attend #RWRI, read ⁦@nntaleb⁩ and learn about complex systems, via negativa & fractal localism. More effective than WEF!   Permalink 10:07 AM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb عذر أقبح من ذنب Permalink 2:34 AM – 24 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “When a principle is strong and (you feel) imperative, everything you do to justify it or rationalize it makes it weaker. Everything.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:07 AM – 24 Jan 2020

@SaranshGNY This is good coming from Taleb because many radical nationalist movements around the globe misinterpret his ideas and consider him the intellectual patron saint of their cause.   Permalink 11:33 PM – 23 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Maybe overkill… Permalink 3:19 PM – 23 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Permalink 2:30 PM – 23 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Now @sapinker will tell us that it is “irrational” to worry about it because there is “evidence” that more people die falling from ladders. #PseudoEmpiricism #NaiveEmpiricism   Permalink 11:25 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@TulsiGabbard For years, @ggreenwald has exposed abuses at the highest levels of government and his investigative journalism deserves our support. If we allow the powerful to silence such journalists, our democracy and freedom is in peril. #StandWithGreenwald Permalink 9:53 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Terry Jones. Permalink 7:35 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@DollarBillBall “If assholes don’t find you arrogant, you are doing something wrong.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:14 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The key is to have a PDF of Abram & Steg. at all times, in all places. Permalink 7:07 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Workout du jour. (Plane ride) Permalink 6:44 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “It is a sign of weakness to avoid showing signs of weakness.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:39 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A clear thread in the Tesla problem.   Permalink 3:58 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A person who can get public attention must never fight vendors who screwed them out of a sense of privilege; only out of obligation.   Permalink 3:42 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Lecktshuring birds how to fly?   Permalink 3:10 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb There is nothing more exhilarating than lifting something extremely heavy over your head. It requires maximal concentration. You lift with your neural system. Beats deadlifing.   Permalink 1:58 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Bureaucrats, I was told, find my lectures very painful.   Permalink 12:52 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Now that I am safely away I can say No. They are equal. No winner.   Permalink 11:14 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Yes I am still losing weight.   Permalink 9:16 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #extremedeadlifting @mises #MiloofCroton Permalink 7:08 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Eastern Mediterranean Cosmopolitanism, open-minded, multicultural, tolerant and localist, preceded Arabist Fascism, Arabist Monocultural Nationalism, Arabist intolerance and Westernphobia. #Localism #BringLebanonBackToTheMed #Cyprus Permalink 5:57 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@MarinaStavrou9 Same with people…   Permalink 2:10 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I did not *really* concede that it was tastier than the Beiruti one! I was being polite to my hosts! Meanwhile proud to be present at the inauguration of the “Makridakis Center for BS Busting in Forecasting”, MCBBF, more politely called the “Makr Open Forecasting Center” MOFC   Permalink 1:15 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Traditionally, Greco-Phoenicians & Greco-Syrians had a Greek/Graeco-Roman & a Semitic name. Taleb = “Philologos”, scholar. Permalink 2:18 PM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Lefkosia, the competition between Lebanese and Cypriot squid ink. ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ Permalink 11:26 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb An apology is (almost always) an expression of submission.   Permalink 4:31 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb There are two types of apologies. One by people relieving their conscience. The other is by those who are caught. Never trust those who apologize after being caught. Permalink 4:15 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Same effect (and more efficient) then to source from Turkey rather than either locally or from some place w/ a strong currency, no @EHSANI22 ?   Permalink 4:10 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I mean what is the origin; even in Heb it is quadri גִלגוּל Permalink 2:49 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Permalink 1:07 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Friends, what is the root of the quadri تدحرج ? Permalink 12:48 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Always think “meta”   Permalink 12:43 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb “Nudging” by that ignorant @R_Thaler   Permalink 12:38 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Is ay7uko from the E. Aramaic ayko? Permalink 10:16 PM – 19 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “Free markets eventually lead to free speech. Censorship by social media not compatible w/ free enterprise! Markets => Ideas, not reverse. ” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #markets Permalink 1:04 PM – 19 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Summary if discussion with Dan Azzi. 1) An explicit haircut reduces uncertainty. People are frozen; yuuge anxiety. 2) It is much much easier to scam atheists than religious people. The mind does not like a vacuum. Permalink 8:15 AM – 19 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A7uka visibly is only understood in the Koura valley. Permalink 3:32 AM – 19 Jan 2020

@nntaleb SemiticPhilological Mysteries du Jour “He/it is (here)” Innahu (huna) انه هنا (Arabic), Hebrew הוא כאן Now where are these from? la7uwwé (hon) (Beirut) sha77hu (hown) (Keserwan) a7uka (hawwn) (North Lebanon) The a7uka is pretty strange. Permalink 2:21 AM – 19 Jan 2020

@bounassif_rabih @nntaleb @businessinsider they do not mention the fact that you refused the refund without fair treatment to all other customers.   Permalink 11:33 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The worse problem is that probability uncertainty creates fat tails REGARDLESS of the environment   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:34 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I mean IN ADDITION to ergodicity there is the substitution of integrals when translated from artificial constructs into real life. The error is explicitly made by nudgeboy Thaler and Phil the rat Tetlock   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:25 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The main problem is that there is no such thing as explicit bets with known probabilities in real life. Only in shit papers like @R_Thaler read by ignorant psychologists.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:22 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Watch the thread where nudgeboy @R_Thaler w/a “Nobel” is being taken to shreds by probabilists & quants. His Mickey Mouse™ framework cannot handle dynamics, time, hence he can’t get #ergodicity. Behavioral Economics is dead. I mean, dead.   Permalink 4:14 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) One TV intervention per decade, so far. My summary and solutions are here, with the TV lecture at USJ. I explained and introduced the notion of “Ponzi” & the train left the station. My summary is here   Permalink 4:01 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) It is just that I am not interested in TV crap/conferences to minimize noise. Nor am I interested in selfies with rioters. #Lebanon #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 3:55 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I can understand pple blaming me for not being in Lebanon during these difficult times… …except that I am in Lebanon. Indeed we should blame the diaspora pundits for lecturing & bullshitting w/o coming to show their face #skininthegame. I’ve been coming back every 3-4 w. Permalink 3:48 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is how one can skip the limit by the summation/integral inequality Permalink 3:15 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Typo. I am integrating from 0^n not 1^n Permalink 3:02 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Here is my solution. There is an alternative by @hvairinhos Permalink 2:57 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “Never allow unsollicited advice from friends. Every time someone gave me a “friendly advice” on 1) writing style, 2) trading strategy, 3) How I should not be weightlifting, 4) Why I shd be nice to Monsanto, etc., I’m glad I did opposite. Be stubborn.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 2:42 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@mikeandallie 2/3 if you follow @nntaleb ‘s writing, you’ll probably find this paragraph in the story to be particularly interesting: Permalink 6:13 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb #localism From a #RWRI alumni   Permalink 2:57 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is a very, very, very unfair competition. Even if the squid comes from the same waters.   Permalink 2:55 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Math du Jour: a tricky limit Permalink 1:18 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb When I say @R_Thaler is the outlier fellow who got very, very far in life knowing nothing about probability.   Permalink 12:16 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “Just as “political science” doesn’t have any science, “think tanks” are for people who don’t and can’t think.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:47 PM – 17 Jan 2020

@_barrelrider @nntaleb Evidence they say.   Permalink 4:11 PM – 17 Jan 2020

@calanmcdonald Thanks for escalating this @nntaleb. Same issue happened to me. Put phone in pocket, in 2 minutes got charged $13k for upgrades. That was Dec 28th. Local Tesla service center in Agoura has been fantastic in getting back to me with updates, but they seem stuck w/ Tesla Fremont. Permalink 4:07 PM – 17 Jan 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “Volatility is good, risk is not.” | “Only the hyper-paranoid survive.” | nailing 2 #RWRI -lessons with one strip | @nntaleb & Co. For more visit   For my books   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 9:35 AM – 17 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Tinkering: fresh squid ink broth Permalink 5:19 AM – 17 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Being rich is great for the wise (optionality), but a curse for the suckers as people prey on them & hijack their preferences.   Permalink 5:13 AM – 17 Jan 2020

@nntaleb It is incredible how many problems money can create.   Permalink 4:55 PM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb How your ideas become #Lindy   Permalink 7:57 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb   Permalink 7:55 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@henrizaq Xaɕiiɕet le xruuf e rrekmė Ḍ Ṣ Ṭ hii mec bel xarf, bel masnad elli baɔd el xarf @lebaneselingui1 le mɔallem Rojėė ɕelu diraasė mfaṣṣlė ɔan hayda l mawḍuuɔ W biyɕuul li biymayyez ط ܛ Ṭ ɔan T ܬ ت Huu l masnad yalli waraaha Metel Ta= تا ܬܐ W Tɑ= طا ܛܐ #ɕalef #leggetna Permalink 5:33 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “”Start by being warm, pleasant, & generous w/every person you meet; but if someone tries to exercise power over you, exercise power over him; & if he messes w/you, remember to keep messing w/him long after he has forgotten about it”. Silver Rule of Fat Tony in #SkinInTheGame” Permalink 4:26 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb #Localism   Permalink 4:16 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This UN imbecile wants to grant more powers to #RiadPonzi?   Permalink 2:06 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A lot of pple think one has to be pro or anti-Tesla. Life is nuanced! I love my Tesla, but customer service is terrible. (Used to be great but degraded sharply over the past 2 y. When I bought the car they used to come to you for repairs. No more).   Permalink 5:00 PM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Fi honik apologist la #RiadPonzi esmo الدكتور جواد خليل صالح المهن Fi 7ada bya3ref mino? Ma 3an lé2i bi Aachen. #lebanonprotests #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 4:15 PM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Elon @elonmusk, your Customer Support at Tesla is even worse than I claimed last time. It is an insult to your customers. Permalink 7:39 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Permalink 4:35 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb In other words, treating individuals as members of groups necessarily implies NO variance between individuals in that group. Permalink 4:23 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb In PRINCIPIA POLITICA I state that it both unethical & unscientific to look at a person’s population traits rather his/her own –both a sampling problem & racism. Treat individuals as individuals not as a members of a group. Permalink 4:12 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb “Caused by” of course here should be “may have been caused by” Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Connection to localism: small fires reduce connectivity. Permalink 2:43 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb @black_swan_man Permalink 2:40 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb FOREST FIRES IN AUSTRALIA: Caused by irresponsible bureaucrats creating chaos by seeking stability. #Antifragile has sections on forest fires & ancestral heuristics (s.a. cultural burning) that “make no sense” to ignorant nudgeboys Sunstein & Thaler & scientistic bureaucrats.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:41 PM – 14 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “As a general rule, most “regrets” after one is caught’s aren’t regrets about having committed the action, but regrets about having been caught. Apologies count only when they are spontaneous, coming out of deep principles. Otherwise they are just an expression of submission.” Permalink 9:08 PM – 14 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Definition Du Jour An intellectual is a designation for someone who, should she or he stopped writing, will never be read again. Permalink 4:34 PM – 14 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Beirut is an unusual place. Ads now target rioters. Permalink 12:47 PM – 14 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Beirut squid ink. No rice, no pasta, just squid in its ink. The best. Everything is 100% local. Permalink 6:08 AM – 14 Jan 2020

@JeanMarcMjbr From the peculiarities of the Lebanese language Eng: Sunrise Fre: Lever du soleil Ar: شروق الشمس Ita: Levata del sole Lebanese: Tiiz d-daww Permalink 3:07 AM – 14 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) One of my summaries explaining how Phil-the-Rat Tetlock’s @ptetlock’s comments on forecasting, tails & GMOs are verbalisms, that is, BS. (From Book. Paper coming out soon in Int Journal of Forecasting.) Permalink 10:54 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb OK, OK, people are figuring out how Nudgeboy Thaler et al. /Behavioral Econ is pseudoscience.   Permalink 10:48 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb How to get out of the credulity rut (regression discontinuity edition): Getting beyond whack-a-mole « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science   Permalink 9:46 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@tompccs “But local authorities have forbidden them from cultural burning when they’ve asked for permission.” Cultural practices, including religous ritual, are #antifragile @nntaleb   Permalink 8:14 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb BS BUSTING DU JOUR: Vernaculars are not لهجة, that is, a corrupted form of Classical Arabic, as is commonly taught in schools. @Safaitic   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:36 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The only EMPIRICAL test is the real world, corrected for circularity (test takers get jobs). I looked at the data IQ-income. No real association outside clinical situations.   Permalink 6:24 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@HarryDCrane The fallacy of the “open science” movement is its quest to standardize everything. What has happened with standardized testing is happening in science. Rewards those who can follow instructions – usually not people with highly original ideas.   Permalink 6:05 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Another point about IQ idiots. They think that “correlation” is an “empirical” result. CORRELATION IS NOT AN “EMPIRICAL RESULT”, but a math construct that is only informative under specific assumptions, not met with IQ.   Permalink 6:03 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 1) Actually the result is older. 2) This is not an IQ test, but IQ style standardization of performance. Point is that you can train (or the environment can train) people at producing such results in a non ecological way. 3) The deeper problem is that we DONT know future demands Permalink 5:47 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb French philosophy textbooks misattribute it to Montaigne: “philosopher, c’est apprendre a mourir”, who himself (not really knowing Greek) misattributed to Cicero (Tota enim philosophorum vita, ut ait idem, commentatio mortis) (Standard textbook for bac.  )   Permalink 5:16 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb YUUGE RESULT OF 2019: a chimp beats humans at some kind of IQ style tests. It is not just IQ: this is the defeat of standardized testing, university admission, school evaluation. They select people good at *some* tests.   Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Coach Rippetoe’s @CoachRippetoe minimum effective dose of training. Explains the difference between exercise and training. “Not the same ting”.   Permalink 5:40 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb In the hierarchy Erudite>>Philosopher (Analytic)> scholar>>academic>>”thinker”> “intellectual”>journalist (real type)>psycholophaster> BSVendor… Among the “conservatives”, Scruton was on top & there are few above BS vendor to replace him. Murray & Peterson are junk thought. Permalink 2:43 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Since Sir Roger’s interview trap, I’ve decided to record all my conversations with journalists. Permalink 2:34 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The solution The generalization is still running Permalink 2:10 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Something as trivial as standard deviation is misunderstood by users and statisticians. Permalink 1:02 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Roger Scruton. Your memory and your work will be remembered. Ad vitam aeternam. Fiercely independent, he was one of the last thinkers who used their own head. Permalink 12:45 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Imperial Romans were still East Meds/Anatolians… Caesar looked like a barber in Damascus or the newly elected mayor in cental Anatolian village.   Permalink 6:40 AM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb To repeat from my previous thread on Empires’ business model: Regime change is NOT the reason empires intervene; rather to squash defiance & force submission. U.S. not asking for regime change in S. Arabia. It wanted one in Lybia, Syria. Defiance weakens the business model. Permalink 4:52 AM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb هيدا ضرب زكا.   Permalink 3:36 AM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb In the past, I would have reacted more favorably towards/defended Iran. But I am waking up every day angry with the regime over the DIRECT killing/execution of >1500 Iranian & >300 Iraqi Shiite kids. Systematic Killing of protesters … I can’t bear. Permalink 12:37 PM – 11 Jan 2020

@TrimontiumTrust A breathtaking reconstruction of Julius Caesar taken from his bust in the Vatican Museums. See more on their Facebook page here   Permalink 11:42 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb It is honorable to own one’s mistake; particularly one that carries tragic consequences. However, blaming another country for one’s mistake, in addition, is shoddy & an insult to the victims. It is like a drunk driver blaming the traffic light manufacturer for a fatal accident.   Permalink 11:31 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb “In any profession, nine tenth of the people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing.” Bed of Procrustes, 3rd Ed.   Permalink 10:00 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@swerengensky HOW TO HANLDE AN EVALUATION FORM WHILE BEING REVIEWED BY YOUR BOSS. Source: a truly antifragile ‘The Black Swan’ by @nntaleb. Location: Mediterranean Sea. Permalink 9:14 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) Marx’s theory of alienation is correct: (Workers separated from the product) This applies to the chain: executives are punished by desk work & meetings, etc. for 60 hours a week, then forced to retire which is a death sentence. There is no life but the #artisanal life Permalink 7:05 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb WHAT I LEARNED IN 2019 1)Modern publishing is not #Lindy (ugly books); we have the capability to make books ornate. 2) Authors can derive g. satisfaction writing WHILE typesetting. Much like painters & artisans. Division of labor kills the soul   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:34 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb There was perhaps no Soleimani threat (at least nothing new). And there was no need for it. Trump borrowed an old Persian trick: put the head of a horse in the enemy’s bed.   Permalink 4:59 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 5) There was perhaps no Soleimani threat (at least nothing new) & no need for it to intervene. What Trump did was directly borrowed from an old Iranian trick: put an horse in the enemy’s bed.   Permalink 4:42 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb DAVOS MEMORY: I called it the IAND (International Association of Name Droppers). 5 y ago, their head of communication @amonck tried to smear me, saying I didn’t mention Popper in The Black Swan (Popper is mentioned 53 times). They are even incompetent at smearing.   Permalink 2:32 PM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This public shaming is the most effective use of the minority rule: ethics is highly asymmetric!   Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb What makes it easy is that Lebanon is small (5 mil) and Beirut is about 1 mil. There is no Washington DC or Brasilia for politicians to hide. Permalink 10:36 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb VERY EFFECTIVE STRATEGY IN #LebanonProtests Shame politicians & bureaucrats by booing them in restaurants & public places. It is yuuuugely effective. Permalink 10:31 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb MY LIST, 1 +Loeve, 2 vol +Karatzas & Shreve +Cover and Thomas, El of Inf Th +Embrechts et al (or De Haan and Fereira) on EVT +Gnedenko & Kolmogorov- Limits +Doob Stochastic Processes +Uchaikin & Zolotarev or Samorodinsky & Taqqu on Stable +Billingsley: Prob. & Measure Borel Permalink 10:25 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@polemitis Thrilled to have @nntaleb keynoting the launch of the MOFC on January 21st @UNIC_ENG. Open to the public, but please RSVP to   Permalink 8:29 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Jan 21, the official launch in Lefkosia (Nicosia) of the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center, MOFC (a.k.a. Makridakis BS debunker in forecasting MBSDF). Cypriot & Phoenician (white) wine, local squid ink. Permalink 8:20 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@chasechandler Hmm…Where have I heard this before? A paper from BCG – “Thinking Biologically” – reads like a summary of Antifragile or #RWRI lecture. @normonics @nntaleb Permalink 7:45 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 6) “Show me the man & I will find you the crime”. — Practically every executive & politician in Japan (& France) has as some side benefit been invited to stretch the law a little bit. Then “they” can use it when the person becomes bothersome. Gray areas become black or white. Permalink 7:36 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The fact is that Nissan lured Ghosn into coming to Japan; jumping bail for entrapment is fair game. And to see how vicious the system is: Nissan was the one doing surveillance on Ghosn when he was out on bail. Nissan, not the government.   Permalink 7:30 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Negative forecasting via the #Lindy effect Permalink 8:05 AM – 9 Jan 2020

@nntaleb You can buy anyone. Well, almost.   Permalink 5:23 AM – 9 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Friends, we have women scholarships open for #RWRI 13   Permalink 4:21 AM – 9 Jan 2020

@JYuter Please remind me how the Jews fared under Communist Russia.   Permalink 2:36 AM – 9 Jan 2020

@yannispetro Modelling #Lindy as a stopping time. Thank you @nntaleb for the intuition!   Permalink 5:20 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Bingo   Permalink 5:00 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I deny all involvement in the matter. I deny having ever tried to set him up. I deny, deny, deny. I am innocent.   Permalink 4:46 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Among other things, the ONLY way to model #Lindy is via a stochastic process. It is probability, not statistics or, worse, “data science”. #ThingsToFinishIn2020   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 3:42 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Someone got Krugman to *deny* he uses child pornography.   Permalink 2:39 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@HarryDCrane It’s a sad state of affairs that majority of Statistic Depts in US have no more than 1 probabilist on faculty. And many have 0. Many PhD programs don’t even teach probability or stochastic processes anymore. Meaning next generation doesn’t learn it, or they take in math Dept. Permalink 12:04 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Footnote 3: In his defense, Trump started by trying to “negotiate” with the Persian regime. They said no. Then he rapidly saw they have relatively ZERO military power & shd start making them aware of it. He thinks he can one day make them an offer they can’t refuse. Permalink 10:44 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Footnote 2: Neocons with Platonic ideas & Hilarist interventionists are just nerds (IYIs) who never had a real job in their lives. They can’t figure out the game but promote it; thus have been ideal operators for the Millitary Complex. Permalink 8:11 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Footnote 1: Hanibal left the Italian Peninsula because the Senate in Carthage cut him off, with the message: “We’re not in that business”. Carthage was too profitable from trade and agriculture to follow the millitaristic route. Permalink 6:42 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 4) Plus charge the Europeans for protection. Recall an Empire’s military must be self-financing. Or perhaps, exit that model (Rand Paul style noninterventionism, to which I subscribe) Permalink 6:38 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) Iraq War had little to do w/anything but model consistency: as w/the Judean rebellion, punish insubordination/defiance, reward economic submission. Clarity of mind: Trump figured out THAT business model (i) REQUIRES direct punishment of Iranian Regime, or (ii) change model Permalink 6:36 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) U.S. has a greater relative military capability in history. Makes no sense: (i) w/o exacting protection money (Europe pays little even indirect), (ii) w/defiant states. Empires’ model is to crush defiant states, plunder & parade Vercingetorix, Zenobia,… Saddam. Permalink 6:23 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Thread on US/IRAN 1) An empire (say Rome) is built on an army that is self financing. Military supremacy generates income. Division of Specialization: If you are money-making (say Phoenicians) then you don’t need an army, you just pay whoever runs that business for protection. Permalink 5:52 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Finally, some clarity in my life. Manti, Shish Borek (my favorite), Kinkhali, Pelmeni, etc. all come from the Chinese steamed/fried dumplings that made NY worth living.   Permalink 2:57 PM – 7 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I love my Tesla. But service, when you need it… Permalink 12:35 PM – 7 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Tesla, @elonmusk, has to work on its customer service & service centers. I mean, really work on it. Permalink 9:03 AM – 7 Jan 2020

@nntaleb What I am learning today is that unless the quote is fabricated, Einstein did not know about trial and error, or, for that matter, the problem of induction.   Permalink 7:13 AM – 7 Jan 2020

@nntaleb As you get richer, you can feel safer, & don’t give a f**ck of what people think (if you invest safely). As you get more *prominent*, get an academic or political position or some accolade (Nobel prize), you are much more vulnerable as you have much further to fall. Permalink 1:13 PM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 (One more)   Permalink 1:04 PM – 6 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “If you are trying to be liked by both the left and the right, you are a demagogue. If you don’t mind being hated by both, you are morally upright.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb   Permalink 10:41 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Not a general rule; but remember there have been at least 2000 funerals in Iraq and Iran (all Shiites) of kids killed by the regime. Permalink 9:10 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Crowds are complex. The more they mourn your departure, the more they welcome new policies. As with Nasser’s funeral, they say goodbuy to both him and his policies. Le roi est mort vive le roi.   Permalink 8:51 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@black_swan_man Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @POTUS @realDonaldTrump #SantaClaus #rally #protection Permalink 6:39 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The final version. Permalink 6:30 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The clarity of mind of pundits, journalists and political commentators discussing the Soleimani affair. Permalink 6:19 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Here is my treatment of standard deviation/variance as a bogus metric even in the Gaussian world when scaled back in terms of informmation. Permalink 5:45 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb (The original Latin expression was written by Ulpian in Berytus: Durum hoc est sed ita lex scripta est). Permalink 5:03 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb CLASSICISM DUJOUR Friends, looking for an ancient expression ~ mafia’s philosophical “it is what it is” (in The Irishman). In Latin: “dura lex sed lex”, in French: “c’est la vie”, or the great Mutanabbi’s يشتهي البحر ما لا تشتهي السفن Theremustbebetterones cc:@ArmandDAngour Permalink 4:44 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@infernoxv Merry Christmas to my friends on the right calendar! Քրիստոս Ծնաւ և Յայտնեցաւ! Χριστός Γεννάται! Христос Рождаєтьсѧ! Christus Natus Est! Hristos se Naşte! وُلِد المسـيحُ، فَمَـجِّدُوه (Armenian icon, 18th century Madonna with Child and the 12 Apostles). Permalink 1:25 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@BrankoMilan “very few people are able to create systems of thought that go across multiple disciplines and display internal coherence.” This was my conclusion re. @nntaleb system. And regularly, perhaps once a month, somebody writes me about that.   Permalink 4:33 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 4) And the world is differentfromwhatitwasin 1979,1991,2004. Hypersonic missiles (the one that hit Soleimani) have compounded US military superiority via yuuuuge gains in precision. For Trump, very tempting to use. See the prophetic op-ed by @sns_1239   Permalink 3:04 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) PROXY WARS: For instance you cannot believe how sick & tired the Lebanese are of Iran wanting to use Lebanon to fight Israel; why the fuck don’t they fight directly w/o putting the #skininthegame of other countries’ innocent civilians and NOT one’s own? That was 2 weeks ago Permalink 2:39 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) I believe in FULL noninterventionism. But if two countries or regimes want to fuck with one another, they must do so directly and without involving bystanders. #Localism Permalink 2:09 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Basically the indirect, proxy wars between the US & Iran were both offensive to the victims (Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc.) & allowed this indirect hostility to carry on for 4 decades! By threatening to directly hit Iran, Trump, forbetterorworse, is making it simple: war or peace   Permalink 1:40 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Meanwhile we are not getting into this riddle for the inequality, rather the beautiful properties of the integral of x^x and its mystery! @joe_shipman Permalink 9:18 AM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019   Permalink 8:04 AM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Can Trump’s unpredictability and randomness of reactions be an effective foreign policy? From Fooled by Randomness (INCERTO, vol 1). How injecting uncertainty in your decision making is a potent deterrent as others don’t know how you OVERREACT. Permalink 6:51 AM – 5 Jan 2020

@sean_a_mcclure   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:58 AM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Corrected Permalink 2:32 PM – 4 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Shiism, much like Christianity, is based on martyrdom. Someone in Washington doesn’t get it. #Soleimani Permalink 12:18 PM – 3 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is unfair to Naval as he limits stuff to his specialty. But basically, once a free person decides to act as a public judge he/she, should have no friends –just look at the world as a judge in a courthouse. Public “intellectuals” are usually propagandists.   Permalink 9:11 AM – 3 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I have no idea. Questions: what was Soleimani’s role in the repression of the Iraq riots? the Iran riots? I have no idea there as well. Thanks.   Permalink 5:07 AM – 3 Jan 2020

@nntaleb It is a matter of scale, @MaxAbrahms: – In a localist system with distributed agents (s.a. Qaeda, ISIS), decapitation is not effective by definition since there is no HEAD. – In a centralized one, it’s only effective where policy depends on a HEAD. Imagine history w/o Bonaparte   Permalink 4:29 AM – 3 Jan 2020

@LTF_01 Truly a Roman among Greeks – @nntaleb   Permalink 1:26 PM – 2 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 5) I don’t know Ghosn & never socialize with people who like panache, glitz, and play hotshots while being on a salary. I don’t like his style (philistinic). But I think he is a highly capable man, will defend his right to defend himself & I respect him for his escape. Gabish? Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 4) No, I m not claiming Carlos Ghosn is innocent. My point is that Japan (a country of systematic coverups & feudal alliances) is NOT the place for the trial of foreigners Actually Japan is not the place for any trial & Highest mob involvement in the “legit” economy in the world Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “There are three types of people. 1) Those who say eliminating mosquitoes is a great thing, book a trip to Alaska/Siberia. 2) Those who reflect, & look at second order effects, particularly when those exist: the cause of the Great Famine under Mao. 3) Those who get convexity.” Permalink 3:29 AM – 2 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) No, no, I am not related to Carlos Ghosn. My mother’s family name is Ghosn but different origin: Greek Orthodox from the Saliba branch (Stavros) while Carlos Ghosn is Maronite. Permalink 7:01 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) Remember that Ghosn’s arrest was a set-up by prosecutors and colluding Nissan people. It is fair to say “f**ck you” to you in return and enjoy nice fresh organic & Lebanese wine tabbouleh in Achrafieh (near my grandparents & parents house). Permalink 4:54 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb So you are proud of your legal system that puts people in cages waiting for them to break down physically & emotionally? Whatever one can blame Ghosn for, I am proud of his escape and the way he say “f**k you” to you & your system. Bravo Carlos G. –and especially Carole!   Permalink 3:52 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@GuruAnaerobic Poll: Who are treated the worst? Permalink 3:34 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Curious events in 2019: Moscow airport, 10 religious Jews, thinking I was Persian, approached me in Farsi; wanted me to read Cyrillic for the gate for “Tehron” No English,No Russian Found myself speaking Hebrew w/Iranian Jews & took them to their gate Stange Iranian tolerance Permalink 2:10 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb (cont) Permalink 1:16 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Most productive Jan 1 ever: finished the Glossary. Explained the Pinker Problem (naive empiricism, confirmatory positivism or the inference of the imbecile). Permalink 1:16 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS of 2019   Permalink 10:59 AM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2- The entire problem of Japan is that they specialized in perfecting what others invent, which can only take you so fat. Traders failure is not accepted; there is yuuuge number of traders who turn into Madoff after hiding a loss then do a hara kiri.   Permalink 10:37 AM – 1 Jan 2020

@BLebnene W hay riznemit l 2020 saarit jehze! Kill shaher fii matal Libnene 3anno, w suura min turaasna Llibnene, w akiid iyyem l esbuu3. Yalle bi7ebb yitba3a w ysherika ma3na! W yin3aad 3laykon w nshalla tkuun sinit kher 3al kill. Nbusto llayle w diiro belkon!   Permalink 6:55 AM – 31 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RACISM SYMPOSIUM — Friends, running Twitter symposia around topics in PRINCIPIA POLITICA. The comments will be integrated in the text.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:41 AM – 31 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Book being here   Permalink 12:33 PM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb So Mr Warburton @philosophybites you don’t feel dishonorable promoting a plagiarized book, after being made aware of it?   Permalink 12:26 PM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This regression’s sole aim is to make IQ Eugenists and Quilettists look good.   Permalink 8:33 AM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb strict Permalink 7:47 AM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb In addition to SPURIOUS correlation from data insufficiency under fat tails, correlation requires strick linear relationship Y=a+b X. Otherwise uninformative.   Permalink 7:43 AM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 My Lecture in Lebanese “From Ponzi to Localism” at the USJ, on Leb TV, during the riots. It angered, among others, #RiadPonzi and the bankers.   Permalink 6:10 AM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I wrote this in 2007: How can you tell a cultural philistine? At the Kulback-Leibler differential with the common culture. Permalink 12:49 PM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, here are (some of) the books I enjoyed in 2019. Permalink 12:10 PM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Tell me what you don’t read, I will tell you who you are. Bed of Procrustes 3rd ed.   Permalink 8:56 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Tell me what you read, I will tell you who you are! These are largely newspaper articles under bindings. The probability of any of these books surviving a decade (except perhaps Darlymple & Murakami) so tiny. Not #Lindy #ReadRealBooks   Permalink 7:28 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@benkunz Remind me to never pick a fight with Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Here he knocks down the very premise of IQ tests, apropos of the NYT op-ed scandal.   Permalink 7:02 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “You will never know if someone is an asshole until he becomes rich.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:10 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019   Permalink 3:43 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019   Permalink 3:41 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb One of the myths is that the “rich gets richer”. It is almost always different people who are getting richer, owing to rotation at the top. The richest 1% of 2019 are not quite the same as the richest 1% of 2009, etc.   #ergodicity   Permalink 3:38 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@largbae Douma chemical weapons attack was staged… @nntaleb called this back when it happened, Assad sucks but he had no reason to undermine his own cause… So what was the real reason for the attack?   Permalink 8:01 PM – 28 Dec 2019

@fexplosiong Thank you for this! Permalink 3:42 PM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb FORGOT A BIG HIGHLIGHT OF 2019   Permalink 2:49 PM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Saar 3am yktob Gebran @Gebran_Bassil bil Lebnéné (Kn3ané) lght l balad. Bravo w mamnunin! #Localism   Permalink 2:38 PM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This is going viral: I’ve written in the past 5 articles for the NYT under pressure from publisher. I hated the compromise. The optimal strategy is the #barbell: Twitter + Books (+math appendices)   Permalink 11:30 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb …which is why I insist that I’ve written only ONE single piece, a book (Incerto, 5 volumes) and its technical endnotes and appendix (Technical Incerto, TK so far 2 volumes, comprising papers). Permalink 8:52 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb In #FooledByRandomness I explain an aspect of it: the more frequent the sampling the higher the noise. Permalink 8:47 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The mechanism in #Antifragile: spurious correlations (and “results”) are convex to number of variables. Permalink 8:40 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Recall that the more information you get, the more disproportionately higher the ratio of noise to signal. Say, a little bit of information, 50% noise; a lot, 99.9% noise. Likewise, in any field, the higher the number of academic publications the higher the ratio of garbage. Permalink 8:28 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 6:24 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb One more result for 2019″: What You See and What You Don’t See   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 5:25 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Among the best skills for real life: the ability to be bored early. Permalink 3:03 PM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019   Permalink 10:51 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Last piece of research of 2019: PCA maps for genetics   Permalink 10:47 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@MaxAbrahms The US attacked Syria for a chemical attack by Assad last year. But official #OPCW scientists who investigated the event didn’t find evidence the Syrian military used chemical weapons. The media has chosen to ignore this story & fire its own journalists who try to report on it. Permalink 8:03 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I have severe Bullshitphobia. I was told it was uncurable.   Permalink 7:48 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019   Permalink 5:43 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019   Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019   Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019   Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019   Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019   Permalink 5:41 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019   Permalink 5:41 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019   Permalink 5:40 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019   Permalink 5:39 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 9:41 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Psychologists use “IQ” to politely put people & entire races in boxes with the label “idiots”, and stick them there for a lifetime. They ruin people’s careers and potentials. Politely. I call psychologists (& IQ mountebanks) idiots to their face. Not politely.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:34 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 8:54 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@henrizaq ɕeza baddaq Lebnėėn yṣiir yecbah Swiisra Ballec bel xarf. #ɕalef Permalink 8:25 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Preliminary result for entropy based genetic maps. Might change the way we view distances between population and rates of inbreeding. Permalink 6:55 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Edited Permalink 5:55 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 5:43 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Rule 1: The more you overreact w/some, the less you need to react w/others. As w/the IRS: increase the penalty & lower your audit rate. Rule 2: when a fraud fucks w/you, say @charlesmurray, @mpigliucci, @sapinker, @SamHarrisOrg or @Noahpinion, keep busting them for decades! Permalink 4:50 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 3:41 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If anyone tries to bully you, there is one and one way to react: ignore or overreact. By overreact I mean, really, overreact.   Permalink 2:55 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Every Christmas I need to make the point that no, the Christ was not a … Since I wrote this piece we got overwhelming DNA evidence during 2019 that Southern Levantines had indistinguishable DNA from that of Imperial Romans.   Permalink 11:47 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb And if he read the Torah by himself (possible but not likely): Hebrew was NOT spoken anymore. Like Latin in the 19th C. Permalink 11:25 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Coptic was never a lingua franca, Latin was only *spoken* in Beirut and Baalbeck (outside the legions) and he might have had a smattering of Greek which was limited to coastal/urban Phoenicia. Permalink 11:22 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb He was the son of a carpenter. One thing I’ve learned over a long life: when someone knows French they make sure to make you aware of it. Permalink 11:15 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb (Cont) plus the Galilean dialect. Permalink 11:09 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Only Aramaic   Permalink 11:08 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HEAVY TAILS 2019 Permalink 9:29 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Messiah meant “anointed” (with holy oil). For Jesus Christ it was metaphoric, replaced by baptism. Permalink 6:18 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb BS vendors should be spared today. This is an appeal to members of the *probabilists BS busting Squad* & other #RWRI activists to refrain from exposing people owing to the spirit of the holidays. Permalink 6:13 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb And in Semitic languages, the word Christ (Ms(h)7)משיח has the same root as ms7 “to wipe”, משחה, “ointment”, to surface/area (masaa7a مساحة)…   Permalink 5:33 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Merry Christmas everyone! Χρόνια Πολλά! Permalink 2:59 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Variance is not a good measure of noise in a system. How it scales with entropy. Permalink 1:26 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@AhsanDeliri Lessons of 2019: 1) Correlation isn’t close to what you think it actually is. 2) Most people don’t know statistics let alone probability. 3) It’s not that field is lacking earnest students. It’s that the field is taught wrong all around. 4) A second rate statistician is deadly Permalink 7:51 PM – 24 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The same with infinite expectations under Fat Tails!   Permalink 2:35 PM – 24 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Dead people are very, very good at keeping secrets.   Permalink 3:33 PM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 5) When people deny they “unconditional support” it means they “unconditionally support”. The Iranians killed ~1500 kids. Even if the number if off, it is immoral to stay silent, @snarwani, & even more immoral to blindly claim Western propaganda. Permalink 3:31 PM – 23 Dec 2019

@Marwa_Laham And the good news is we have an Association of Small depositors ( All of us who have been venting about banks). Check it out and share it and RT it please. #كرمال_كلنا_نعيد   #لبنان_ينتفض #لبنان #إليسا ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:13 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb M5 is launched.   Permalink 8:54 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb To clarify & answer comments: 1) Correlation is a measure for linear relationships, but it is nonlinear in its interpretation (and non additive). 2) A simple example of why correlation doesn’t work under nonlinearity, and why MI always works. Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SITG   Permalink 6:31 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@MaxAbrahms Reuters says about 1,500 people were killed during the November demonstrations in #Iran based on info gathered from security forces, morgues, hospitals and coroners’ offices. This estimate is much higher than previous estimates.   Permalink 4:39 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The other effect of PRINCIPIA POLITICA: Article 3 “Public institutions must have an expiration date.” A Russian “UNIVERSITY 2035” was created, aiming to dissolve in 2035. Met them in Kazan. Focus:digital skills Joint by Novosibirsk State U,Tomsk State, FarEast Federal U Permalink 4:20 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This came verbatim from PRINCIPIA POLITICA.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:53 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Footnote 2: Blocked more than 3000 people on Twitter, but picked up > 100,000 new followers during 2019. Permalink 3:07 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Footnote 1: Since it became fashionable to show such a thing, here is a list of prescription drugs I took in 2019. Permalink 2:51 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb We are introducing simple transformations to evaluate genetic distances and homozygocity. Permalink 2:44 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb A severe problem with genetic/IQ studies: correlation is highly nonlinear: a correlation of 3/4 is much, much closer to 0 than to 1. Which shows why the overly used “heritability index” is nonsense. I wonder why these IQ idiots didn’t realize it before. Psychology =astrology Permalink 2:33 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntalebbot “The traits I respect are erudition and the courage to stand up when half-men are afraid for their reputation. Any idiot can be intelligent.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Peterson, charisma? Peterson, like most psycholophasters, gives the impression of a dithering hypochondriac with an insomnia problem, having serious trouble getting his BS in order, & who regularly implores with endless speeches his girlfriends/partners to not dump him .   Permalink 2:11 PM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Thanks to the works of @Safaitic and @PhDniX we can confirm that whatever it is a dialect OF, and whatever category you may wish to classify it in, Levantine is not a dialect OF Fus7a (Classical Arabic). It is a PARALLEL language to Fus7a.   Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb “Organized NYC deadlifting antiBS probabilists squad” (Former student and RWRI instructor)   Permalink 8:06 AM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Pschologists classifying “IQ deniers” as a pathology. I am a “psychology denier”, that is “bullshit denier”.   Permalink 7:21 AM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 19- Finally, I did not compromise once in 2019. Happy Holidays for all. Permalink 3:28 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 17- Lost (some) money short HLF. But stayed long Gold, etc. 18- Found some severe & disturbing logical errors in PRINCIPIA POLITICA (which I incidentally started in 2019). Fixed quietly, so far. Permalink 3:24 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 14-Found great space for #RWRI across the sidewalk where a famous mafia don was wacked (Sparks Steakhouse), w/one of his family members now part of the #RWRI club. Feels safe. 15-Ate no seed oil 16-Feel plenty of gratitude towards my friends, esp. those who corrected errors Permalink 3:16 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 11-Blocked >3000 people on Twitter, using highly *Bayesian* tricks. 12-Ate large meals with the BS Busting Brigade connected to #RWRI, made new friends. 13-Had charlatans s.a. Sam Harris, Charles Murray, etc. publicly complaining about me. Permalink 2:57 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 8-Was subjected to 6 smear campaigns from 6 separate sources, including #Lebanon bankers w/smear video from PR firm. No effect. I need more enemies in 2020, to confuse them. 9-Lost 7 lbs but year isn’t over. 10-Tried & failed to learn Hindi. Everyone speaks English. Permalink 2:41 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 4- Published 6 papers (single auth), wrote 10 in total, 1 in epistemology 5- Increased the pushpress by 25lbs in spite of injury 6- Lectshured (& ate) in Serbia, Estonia, & Tatarstan 7- Went on #Lebanon TV after 10y to expose #RiadPonzi, introduced Ponzi term. Riad was upset Permalink 2:31 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 2019, Personal Review 1-Managed to Yuugely upset monocultures: both anti-Iran & pro-Iran shills; both pro-Trump & anti-Trump; both the “left” & the Neo-nazis/Quillette/eugenists. 2-Busted IQ as a fraud,on stat/math grounds. 3-Finished Stat Cons Fat Tails, Tech Incerto vol 1 Permalink 2:18 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. Cramming several #RWRI -insights into one comic strip => scalability – static vs dynamic – business school BS. @nntaleb Free stuff here   Support me here   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:44 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@DennisHXu “You do not create dynamic equality just by raising the level of those at the bottom, but rather by making the rich rotate.”   @nntaleb’s article on inequality is the most important and least well understood idea of the present socio-economic discourse. Permalink 9:04 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, looks like I need to give up the Medieval style with boxes (left) in favor of the right version as it becomes rapidly unwieldy. Is there a serious loss of aesthetics? Permalink 4:51 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb An infallible marker of crummy intellect is when someone cherry picks from authors long dead for retrospective bigoteering. @RichardDawkins is my model of the BS vendor.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:46 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Better interword spacing Permalink 3:34 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile the Technical Incerto, Vol 1: hard to get the #lindy 2-column aesthetics with a 6 by 9 book, which requires 8½ by 11. Equations and graphs make it difficult to flow properly. Permalink 2:19 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Colored text is #Lindy. Precedes printing. Everything needs rich aesthetics. I am following the model in PRINCIPIA POLITICA   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:26 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 4) I exposed @snarwani for unconditional support for the Iranian regime. This imbecile @Doranimated is worse; doesn’t get a Leb PM needs approval by ALL factions (like Hariri). Think tank pple have no academic freedom (owned by funders); almost all are subpar failed academics. Permalink 1:05 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 3) And the fellow has the logical abilities of a goldfish in contaminated water. Geopolitics shills are unemployable losers incapable of reasoning outside the script: if it is not A, then it is B, to counter other shills saying if not B then A. #Localism   Permalink 1:59 PM – 20 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The best representation of Fat Tony, via Fat Tony Salerno in The Irishman. Permalink 1:51 PM – 20 Dec 2019

Taleb the Philosopher |

By this point, Taleb has come to view all three works as composing a unified project, which he calls Incerto, about “decision making under uncertainty.” The central idea of Antifragile is that risk, volatility, or turbulence is in many cases not to be feared and avoided, but desired and sought. Taleb claims to have identified a new concept: Whereas fragile things are harmed by shocks, and robust things are resilient or unharmed, what is antifragile actually benefits from shocks. A related concept and characteristic Talebism: What is “Lindy” is likely to survive a long time because it has already survived a long time—named after a ­Manhattan restaurant where actors observed the phenomenon in ­Broadway runs.
Hattip Dave Lull