Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
@nntaleb Fat Tony lives in NJ; but he self defines as “from Brooklyn”. “It’s that bridge, you know”. Permalink 10:14 AM – 7 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Comments on New Jersey in The Incerto… one of many pic.twitter.com/0TeSh0F2vh Permalink 9:18 AM – 7 Feb 2020
@nntaleb I wonder what is scaring them the most: the virus or being forced to stay in New Jersey. https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/status/1225770175380803584 Permalink 7:32 AM – 7 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Also there is a focus on AI, machine learning, and data science, away from traditional idiotic business school finance. Permalink 7:01 AM – 7 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Our NYU Tandon School of Engineering Fin program is becoming increasingly successful, largely because of the link to the real world. Both Peter Carr & yours truly come from practice, and have developed our research WHILE in practice. @nyutandon @NYUFRE https://engineering.nyu.edu/news/nyu-tandon-financial-engineering-program-ranked-among-best Permalink 6:52 AM – 7 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Speculative Mediterranean Philology DuJour: Question. Moustaki/Mustacchi/Μουστακί/ς Μουστάκας does not seem to have a real Greek origin. Could it come from the Semitic مستقي\ مشطقّي؟\مصطقّي ? Note the Italian c+ch = قّ Permalink 12:14 PM – 6 Feb 2020
@nntaleb For instance: Lebanese deposits #Lebanon https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1225491481500225538 Permalink 10:50 AM – 6 Feb 2020
@otrasenda_AC Para mi es claro que para entender la salud humana de forma integral, así como para prevenir y hacer frente a epidemias como la actual, necesitamos un enfoque complejo @redcompleja que permita por ejemplo valorar estos riesgos ver la nota de @normonics, @yaneerbaryam y @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/c0ZuERfm4G Permalink 10:49 AM – 6 Feb 2020
@TalebWisdom “In the medical and social domains, treatment should never be equivalent to silencing symptoms.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 6:24 AM – 6 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Salibi was a BS vendor: into historical fabrication, relied upon by Arab fascists to destroy #Localism & Med Cosmopolitanism. Never ever cite Salibi for anything. For instance, his story of the Yemen exodus (Marib dam) was debunked by population genetics (@PZalloua). https://twitter.com/ZiryabJ/status/1225419602315878400 Permalink 6:15 AM – 6 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Will give a remote lecture in @spyrosmakrid’s class. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1224353486793596929 Permalink 6:08 AM – 6 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Another distinguishing feature: Photius was a lay person and a yuuge erudite. There are antecedents allowing lay people to become patriarchs of Constantinople, the highest calling for any orthodox, in case someone is interested. https://twitter.com/DrMichaelBonner/status/1225406512279031808 Permalink 5:32 AM – 6 Feb 2020
@nntaleb PRINCIPIA https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1225090288546406400 Permalink 7:30 PM – 5 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Total victims (reported) are now ~20,000. When we did these piece, the number was about 1,000. Multiplicative processes. Einstein has a saying (attributed to him) about the force of compound interest. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208 Permalink 7:23 PM – 5 Feb 2020
@nntaleb An MD may know a lot of clinical stuff (though not always) but cannot comprehend multiplicative processes. So they should shut the f**k up when it comes to these risks. Called “carpenter fallacy” w/ the GMO problem: to understand risks of roulette, know probability not carpentry. https://twitter.com/Aemiliannus/status/1225110386560655360 Permalink 12:04 PM – 5 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Friends, my book is here. Easier to read than ArXiv. You can also add comments. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 12:04 PM – 5 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Solved! Ignore, take a walk, come back and the solution comes out. pic.twitter.com/RwSSfpExHF Permalink 11:16 AM – 5 Feb 2020
@AllAboutAlpha “Statistician/philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb critiques “behavioral” economics and finance as he looks at the differences between “binary forecasts” and “real world payoffs,” in a recent paper for the International Journal of Forecasting.” https://bit.ly/313J0Ox ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BNkYpkscYo”> pic.twitter.com/BNkYpkscYo Permalink 9:50 AM – 5 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Actually… proof is TK pic.twitter.com/Sl1pKilQyj Permalink 9:45 AM – 5 Feb 2020
@nntaleb My point on homeopathy is that it distracts the patient away from iatrogenics when the disease is within 1 sigma. https://twitter.com/david_perell/status/1225100974676639744 Permalink 9:44 AM – 5 Feb 2020
@GCsVentures Meanwhile, I’m learning that Sweden (where I reside & pay taxes) is imposing zero quarantine on people coming from China at the moment. @Folkhalsomynd please don’t blindly follow the @WHO. Enforce quarantines and/or stop influx from China now. Please see https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208 Permalink 9:40 AM – 3 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Pages 8-11 Friends, looking for typos/errors. Thanks again pic.twitter.com/IkhwN5OLlr Permalink 9:38 AM – 3 Feb 2020
@statsmartin Yes, @researchersone publishes books! Check out @nntaleb’s latest book “Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails” https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 7:32 AM – 3 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Pages 4-7 pic.twitter.com/j2ox078mjG Permalink 6:36 AM – 3 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Reposting (corrected) pages 1-3 (single page, easier to read) pic.twitter.com/uqYxMqN1CL Permalink 6:25 AM – 3 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Friends, the draft of the transcription of a lecture I gave at the Leopoldina academy on how RISK & PARANOIA are misunderstood by psychologists & BS vendors. Part 1, for comments pic.twitter.com/MTmvuVA5Jn Permalink 6:20 AM – 3 Feb 2020
@nntaleb The ting about these puzzles is that you always think it is a 15 min morning exercise, but they have a totally stochastic stopping time. This, unexpectedly, took houuuuuuuuuuuuuurs! Permalink 6:26 PM – 2 Feb 2020
@nntaleb This s***t cost me half my Sunday! Tough, tough! pic.twitter.com/eSbgKq8urF Permalink 6:07 PM – 2 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Expect more BS like this one by @johnpilger https://twitter.com/johnpilger/status/1224119492126527488 Permalink 5:12 PM – 2 Feb 2020
@nntaleb The Black Swan (2007) discusses the risks of a virus spreading owing to the increased connectivity in the modern environment. Connectivity increases fattailedness. We were never as connected as we were 10 days ago. pic.twitter.com/XzQNgJGAca Permalink 7:09 AM – 2 Feb 2020
@JamesMarsh79 I remember when @nntaleb @financequant debated the risks of an outbreak at #rwri, nassim mentioned that hospitable might not even be open because staff wouldn’t show up. Wise https://twitter.com/wsj/status/1223984447550361600 Permalink 7:04 AM – 2 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Sunday morning workout. pic.twitter.com/WUC5yPiAj6 Permalink 6:19 AM – 2 Feb 2020
@nntaleb The type of fake empiricism we @yaneerbaryam and @normonics are trying to correct. Note it is almost ALWAYS a journo or a psychologist (@qhardy) making such irresponsible claim. Lightning strikes are not multiplicative, hence thin-tailed. https://twitter.com/qhardy/status/1223940970871316480 Permalink 6:18 AM – 2 Feb 2020
@yannispetro Similar to drinking a drop of tap water every time you visit India @nntaleb @SavvasSalou @JennyKechagia https://twitter.com/JonHaidt/status/1223726591169253376 Permalink 2:02 PM – 1 Feb 2020
@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR https://twitter.com/Marcellenassif/status/1223725662185447425 Permalink 1:57 PM – 1 Feb 2020
@TalebWisdom “It is much harder to become independent if you are wealthy than to become wealthy if you are independent.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 12:06 PM – 1 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Right to left… Or, better, random order https://twitter.com/Zrimat_/status/1223651362354925568 Permalink 9:45 AM – 1 Feb 2020
@nntaleb A trivial computation: If IQ mapped to intelligence rather than unintelligence (i.e. <70), where are the 800,000 geniuses? Trivial. pic.twitter.com/4gO1MNV1JY Permalink 8:19 AM – 1 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Dear Atlantans, this friend of mine is in Atlanta and looking for a Calabese barber or possibly any Mediterranean barber shop a la old country style (where barbers have a heavy accent). Can anyone help? pic.twitter.com/7jK8gmiDxg Permalink 7:17 AM – 1 Feb 2020
@yvespatte Il y a quelques jours, pendant que des éditorialistes nous disaient qu’il n’y avait pas à s’inquiéter du coronavirus, des chercheurs spécialisés en risk management et en système complexe, @normonics, Yaneer Bar-Yam et @nntaleb, publiaient ce papier : https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/h9vfmGyi3c”> pic.twitter.com/h9vfmGyi3c Permalink 5:45 AM – 1 Feb 2020
@LaikiEksixroni1 @nntaleb lets bring Lebanon to the where it belongs https://twitter.com/EastMedMonitor/status/1223555043246444545 Permalink 2:39 AM – 1 Feb 2020
@nntaleb Mathematicians think in proofs, lawyers in constructs, logicians in operators, dancers in movement, artists in impressions, drummers in rythms, and idiots in labels. Bed of Procrustes. Permalink 5:14 PM – 31 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 2) I feel safe traveling in the US over the next month. Permalink 3:20 PM – 31 Jan 2020
@nntaleb GREAT NEWS. We are told that our article helped move the needle as the US government has taken the rational precautionary measures we advocated. @normonics https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208 Permalink 2:39 PM – 31 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Some background: the alt-right, Charles Murray et al, Nordic supremacists & eugenists, are bothered by my IQ article. Murray is circulating “debunkings” by some bloggist. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 2:32 PM – 31 Jan 2020
@mikeandallie (1/3) I’ve learned an enormous amount from @nntaleb in the last 4 or 5 years about what it means to pursue math away from academia. It isn’t simply a matter of depth of knowledge, though, it is his fearlessness with doing math in public and his ability to explain deep +. pic.twitter.com/BWm5rkXhXI Permalink 2:27 PM – 31 Jan 2020
@nntaleb A reminder of Charles Murray as a fake scholar. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162105686848880640 Permalink 2:00 PM – 31 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Something that grows at a rate of >10% a day is a problem (here potentially 25%). We need to constrain its growth. Every point counts! 6-9 months would be a disaster. https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1223026763896434694?s=20 Permalink 3:40 PM – 30 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 2/ Hurricanes are not multiplicative. Some viruses are. Permalink 3:37 PM – 30 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Apparently the person holding up the precautionary measures to constrain mobility is a son of Amioun: Health Secretary Alex Azar @SecAzar who, unlike another son of Amioun*, doesn’t get precautionary principles in a complex interactive system. *Amioun is our village of origin https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208 Permalink 2:46 PM – 30 Jan 2020
@chasechandler This is the problem with term “evidence based.” Almost always used with great ignorance of emergence and downside asymmetry. Permalink 12:31 PM – 30 Jan 2020
@normonics WORST possible recommendation. This is why we can’t subject ourselves to global scale policy. This is an outrageous statement #coronavirus https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1222969858574430217 Permalink 12:05 PM – 30 Jan 2020
@johncarlosbaez Thanks, Eric. Alas, I have a kind of allergy to shows where bigshots get interviewed about stuff. Permalink 11:47 AM – 30 Jan 2020
@hugowiz «If we don’t understand something and it has a systemic effect, just avoid it.» Skin in the game @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/waIiZL9OdO Permalink 11:39 AM – 30 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Continued in Lebanon: some people are still classified as Rum. https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/1222854495622877184 Permalink 11:22 AM – 30 Jan 2020
@BotTradingQuote We have this culture of financialization. People think they need to make money with savings rather with their business. So you end up with dentists who are more traders than dentists. A dentist should drill teeth and use whatever he does in the market for entertainment-@nntaleb Permalink 6:30 AM – 30 Jan 2020
@paulportesi No. @nntaleb has discussed many of tactics on this particular issue. He “trades” in the world markets. I defer to him. Time spent on revenge is never wasted. NNT Revenge is a moral obligation. NNT Revenge isn’t just revenge. It’s a deterrent.” – NNT https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/972887563164946432?s=19 https://twitter.com/royer_geoffrey/status/1222664501876678656 Permalink 3:44 PM – 29 Jan 2020
@animangia Now @nntaleb is going to have a Capisch emoji https://twitter.com/emojipedia/status/1222635333491286019 Permalink 3:28 PM – 29 Jan 2020
@yaneerbaryam Community action for Wuhan Coronavirus pandemic response pic.twitter.com/2xyLdMREju Permalink 11:26 AM – 29 Jan 2020
@nntaleb He knows something we don’t know. “Boeing CEO David Calhoun: I don’t expect lasting Coronavirus impact” https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/01/29/boeing-ceo-david-calhoun-i-dont-expect-lasting-coronavirus-impact.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter Permalink 6:38 AM – 29 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The Trump Peace Plan is not about peace and not a plan; it is, simply, punitive capitulation terms a la Versailles. It also ignores Palestinian refugees in Lebanon & elsewhere. Permalink 4:25 AM – 29 Jan 2020
@nntaleb November 4-5 2020 https://twitter.com/narekk/status/1222399764290920450 Permalink 3:23 AM – 29 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Final Version of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails finally on ArXiv. Hard copy out soon. https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.10488 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2gvRKLERkr”> pic.twitter.com/2gvRKLERkr Permalink 3:15 AM – 29 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “You need to realize that the only thing a career academic can really teach you is how to be a career academic.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #books Permalink 2:45 AM – 29 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “If you reject unfounded blame, you must also reject unjustified praise.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 5:40 PM – 28 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Karl Sharro @KarlreMarks plagiarizing again? pic.twitter.com/7bm9NjRgM4 Permalink 11:43 AM – 28 Jan 2020
@nntalebbot “The curious mind embraces science; the gifted and sensitive, the arts; the practical, business; the leftover becomes an economist” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 28 Jan 2020
@GCsVentures Worry about journalists, politicians (and doctors!) not understanding the necessary precautionary principle. Dangerous idiots, literally playing with your lives. Read @nntaleb, @normonics and @yaneerbaryam. https://academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedScience/status/1222215240756158466 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JVO6bfbrNK”> pic.twitter.com/JVO6bfbrNK Permalink 10:28 AM – 28 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The cental rule in life is that it is much, much better to panic early than late. Permalink 8:45 AM – 28 Jan 2020
@nntaleb So an Egyptian (Hamitic) writes to a Hittite (Indo-European) in a Semitic Language (Accadian) or am I mistaken? cc:@Safaitic https://twitter.com/mynemosyne54/status/1221892174146670592 Permalink 4:21 AM – 28 Jan 2020
@normonics Dean of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong gets it. – we must apply the precautionary principle – we don’t predict, we prepare – we must stop it at the scale of macroscopic mobility patterns @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam an ally https://twitter.com/athemtarwp/status/1221925524647247872 Permalink 8:40 PM – 27 Jan 2020
@maiamajumder I’ve seen a few tweets recently about how R_0 is the mean of a distribution (via @nntaleb) and how its dispersion is important to understand (via @DFisman & @C_Althaus). This is very true (for #nCoV2019 & otherwise), and it’s why I posted this graphic last week. [THREAD] 1/x https://twitter.com/maiamajumder/status/1220802808976486406 Permalink 12:42 PM – 27 Jan 2020
@nntaleb One possible approach pic.twitter.com/6LHi3RW7tx Permalink 12:29 PM – 27 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Exercise du Jour (Note: Correct Quote is “Easier to buy and sell than fry an egg”.) pic.twitter.com/N1PCEp6QSf Permalink 12:00 PM – 27 Jan 2020
@nntaleb FORT LAUDERDALE AIRPORT INFORMATION BOOTH Me: “are there comfortable trains from here to Miami?” Answer (by Information official): “Why don’t you use Google?” Me: “Aren’t you an information desk?” Answer: “Aren’t you able to use Google?” Permalink 11:35 AM – 27 Jan 2020
@JohnCleese The Master and his Emissary by Iain McGilchrist ( for the second time ) and Skin in the Game by Nassim Nicholas Taleb There wasn’t much space for colouring, but I must admit they both coloured my thinking May I recommend ” An Idiots’s Guide to Punctuation ” ? https://twitter.com/DanoFretman/status/1221868424529231872 Permalink 11:22 AM – 27 Jan 2020
@nntaleb No worries, it is added to the list https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/dobelli.htm Nigel Warburton, a despicable man, does not have the ethics to remove it. Permalink 10:15 AM – 27 Jan 2020
@rperezmarco For sure all the mediterraneans we have more in common than any culture from the inland, and a main characteristic is cosmopolitanism. Makes more sense to me a Mediterranean Union than EU, although I think we are too anarchists for that Permalink 8:01 AM – 27 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “France took Algeria, hoping for a country to eat cassoulet and instead France is now eating couscous.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:37 AM – 27 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 4) Funny translation of his song “Le Meteque”, “Juif errant, et pâtre grec ” sung in Hebrew by Yossi Banai. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBK3t_AZceQ Permalink 5:10 AM – 27 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 3) He was called “Monsieur 1 volt” (contrast w/Becaud’s 100,000 volts”) because of his sterotypical Mediterranean nonchalance. But he was productive without showing it, by spezzatura. Like all cosmopolitan Meds he was a pacifist. He loved Beirut & would have lived there except.. Permalink 5:09 AM – 27 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 2) He started by writing poetry in French. Like all Trans-Meds, he self identified as Greek though did not speak the language naturally. The Romaniotes are a very small true Greek community: even more Meds than Greco-Phoenicians & Greco-Syrians. pic.twitter.com/2fwNkGUcoX Permalink 5:01 AM – 27 Jan 2020
@nntaleb COSMOPOLITAN MEDITERRANEISM 1) The modern person who represents modern trans-nation-state Mediterraneism is Georges Moustaki. He was Alexandrian, from a Greek-Jewish Romaniote family (on that, next) (father’s name Nessim), spoke Italian at home, French educated; ended in Paris. pic.twitter.com/Np0n4q6Nq3 Permalink 4:58 AM – 27 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The number of people infected is a random variable with huge dispersion; hard to measure and subjected to downward biases in measurement. Permalink 4:46 AM – 27 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Why R_0 should NEVER be discussed by journos. It is a distributional concept, not a metric like the height of a child! pic.twitter.com/x3FHKpICvD Permalink 4:33 AM – 27 Jan 2020
@nntaleb An explanation of why K_0 is biased big time; miscomputed via moment estimators. pic.twitter.com/jwttJKSStn Permalink 3:30 PM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Another ignorant journalist dealing with risk matters. Irresponsible. https://twitter.com/ferrisjabr/status/1220969972215631872?s=21 https://twitter.com/ferrisjabr/status/1220969972215631872 Permalink 12:31 PM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb As predicted https://twitter.com/ncov19/status/1221507196070002689?s=21 https://twitter.com/ncov19/status/1221507196070002689 Permalink 12:18 PM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb No. It ia irresponsible and immoral to pay the Eurobond. #Lebanon https://twitter.com/dan_azzi/status/1221521937651982336 Permalink 12:00 PM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness 101: did they factor in that healthy and energetic people are more likely to go to museums? https://nyti.ms/2tDdRoo Permalink 10:30 AM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb HOW TO REACT TO PANDEMICS can be dowloaded belo @normonics, @yaneerbaryam #ChinaCoronaVirus #China https://academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WH79rULG9d”> pic.twitter.com/WH79rULG9d Permalink 9:33 AM – 26 Jan 2020
@Tejlgaard I live 500km from Wuhan. Your analysis is not just correct; I used your principles from the Incerto to stock up in time on nonperishable food for 3 months. I did so before everybody else even thought about it. Now, no non-perishable food remains in most shops. Permalink 8:30 AM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb My point of crying wolf during the Ebola episode. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM Permalink 8:30 AM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Almost all of psychology texts (on psych of risk) miss the point. https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1221468544082284547?s=20 Permalink 8:27 AM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb “To become a philosopher king, start with being a king, not being a philosopher.” Skin in the Game https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1221102799636848640 Permalink 8:20 AM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 1) The point is that you can be wrong a zillion times; doesn’t matter if all it takes is once to hit extinction. 2) It’s remarkable how pple who learn statistics become dangerously stupid, like this “professor” @AlexColangelo Car accidents are thin-tailed, never multiplicative pic.twitter.com/P3z8qdJHvQ Permalink 8:14 AM – 26 Jan 2020
@AEiddddddd pic.twitter.com/g3u9J970mc Permalink 7:05 AM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb A reminder of the type of arguments that will cause humanity to go extinct. Systematically blocked. pic.twitter.com/6HU00tHCTU Permalink 6:26 AM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The problem with the China #Coronavirus: Fat Tails and Naive Empiricism a la Cass Sunstein/S Pinker. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/QWVXLtTxVp Permalink 4:32 AM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The journo is an irresponsible imbecile. My talk in Cyprus: without extreme paranoia, we can’t survive. #ergodicity requires ignoring costs-benefits in the presence of ruin problems. https://nypost.com/2020/01/23/dont-buy-the-media-hype-over-the-new-china-virus/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons via @nypost Permalink 2:59 AM – 26 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Because, connectivity and tails. WHO are rent seeking idiots. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1221214284379828224 Permalink 3:48 PM – 25 Jan 2020
@yaneerbaryam When we warned on Ebola people said quarantine was impossible. At least in China urban scale quarantine is seen as an essential way to combat pandemics. We need effective policy — and not wait for global catastrophe to teach us. https://necsi.edu/ending-pandemics @nntaleb Permalink 3:07 PM – 25 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Why your body learns disproportionally from tail events. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d https://twitter.com/hugowiz/status/1221105195427348480 Permalink 11:43 AM – 25 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #ethics Permalink 8:46 AM – 25 Jan 2020
@hugowiz «All you need to learn are the safety skills to move off the floor at your maximum while avoiding injury. Lindy again: weight lifters have known the phenomenology for at least two and a half millennia.» Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks pic.twitter.com/dGrDx9f98F Permalink 8:19 AM – 25 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 2) Note: while we know the R_0 of the Flu, we don’t know that of WuFlu. Because it is an average, its small sample properties make it biased downward in measurements. Permalink 7:46 AM – 25 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Sopistry Alert: She is not a public servant. She cannot plunder coffers and or have friends do do. Gebran is a public servant. #BSbustingDuJour https://twitter.com/jamalfayad/status/1220765565398212615 Permalink 5:10 AM – 25 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Interestingly the only pple who talk about “scientific consensus” (aside from GMO shills like @mark_lynas) are journalists, schoolteachers,& other destroyers of science. Science is a rigorous process against consensus, questioning consensus, & debunking consensus. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1221046559074217984 Permalink 4:34 AM – 25 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “A book is something that can be read ten years after publication. A real book, twenty. Otherwise it is a magazine report with bookbinding.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 4:09 AM – 25 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The fellow is correcting Pinker-style naive empiricism & bogus “rationality”/”realism” (of the type peddled by psychologists). For some things paranoia is necessary for survival. The reproductive factor maps to fat-tailedness. Note: the mortality rate shd increase over time. https://twitter.com/DaveHarig/status/1220839482544590849 Permalink 3:24 AM – 25 Jan 2020
@nntaleb This is the kind of thing that makes me … https://twitter.com/designboom/status/1220833662272491528 Permalink 3:18 PM – 24 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Much more elegant pic.twitter.com/MkCmkSR8yB Permalink 2:42 PM – 24 Jan 2020
@nntaleb This is easier; doesn’t go through offsetting log of negatives. pic.twitter.com/F02qeLoQjv Permalink 2:16 PM – 24 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The sucker problem is to answer lim=1. pic.twitter.com/y6yKSq8ehp Permalink 2:04 PM – 24 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Friday distraction with a small sucker problem. pic.twitter.com/9as4dANTOW Permalink 1:24 PM – 24 Jan 2020
@nntaleb My idea of rationality: ergodicity & survival under true distributions. https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a Permalink 12:50 PM – 24 Jan 2020
@nntaleb New Harvard Course: “Pseudo-Empiricism” or “Scientism 101” https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1220784778254770176 Permalink 11:20 AM – 24 Jan 2020
@sergesapiens Mnunchin is a lost cause. At least Greta gets fat tail risk of messing up with nature. @GretaThunberg , I recommend you attend #RWRI, read @nntaleb and learn about complex systems, via negativa & fractal localism. More effective than WEF! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51219530 Permalink 10:07 AM – 24 Jan 2020
@nntaleb عذر أقبح من ذنب Permalink 2:34 AM – 24 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “When a principle is strong and (you feel) imperative, everything you do to justify it or rationalize it makes it weaker. Everything.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:07 AM – 24 Jan 2020
@SaranshGNY This is good coming from Taleb because many radical nationalist movements around the globe misinterpret his ideas and consider him the intellectual patron saint of their cause. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1220417092819857408 Permalink 11:33 PM – 23 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Maybe overkill… pic.twitter.com/48FfKKCFGB Permalink 3:19 PM – 23 Jan 2020
@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/tXnUvPFk9R Permalink 2:30 PM – 23 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Now @sapinker will tell us that it is “irrational” to worry about it because there is “evidence” that more people die falling from ladders. #PseudoEmpiricism #NaiveEmpiricism https://twitter.com/WellmanAlex/status/1220044510287269889 Permalink 11:25 AM – 22 Jan 2020
@TulsiGabbard For years, @ggreenwald has exposed abuses at the highest levels of government and his investigative journalism deserves our support. If we allow the powerful to silence such journalists, our democracy and freedom is in peril. #StandWithGreenwald Permalink 9:53 AM – 22 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Terry Jones. Permalink 7:35 AM – 22 Jan 2020
@DollarBillBall “If assholes don’t find you arrogant, you are doing something wrong.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:14 AM – 22 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The key is to have a PDF of Abram & Steg. at all times, in all places. pic.twitter.com/wiCxXtiVIv Permalink 7:07 AM – 22 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Workout du jour. (Plane ride) pic.twitter.com/tPxFexOcAW Permalink 6:44 AM – 22 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “It is a sign of weakness to avoid showing signs of weakness.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:39 AM – 22 Jan 2020
@nntaleb A clear thread in the Tesla problem. https://twitter.com/tedstein/status/1219406746868953088 Permalink 3:58 PM – 21 Jan 2020
@nntaleb A person who can get public attention must never fight vendors who screwed them out of a sense of privilege; only out of obligation. https://twitter.com/piehead9/status/1219747489147969537 Permalink 3:42 PM – 21 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Lecktshuring birds how to fly? https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1219727714568916993 Permalink 3:10 PM – 21 Jan 2020
@nntaleb There is nothing more exhilarating than lifting something extremely heavy over your head. It requires maximal concentration. You lift with your neural system. Beats deadlifing. https://twitter.com/GrantSSC/status/1219360661920264193 Permalink 1:58 PM – 21 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Bureaucrats, I was told, find my lectures very painful. https://twitter.com/ThornCharmer/status/1219710962011385856 Permalink 12:52 PM – 21 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Now that I am safely away I can say No. They are equal. No winner. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1219691427220901889 Permalink 11:14 AM – 21 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Yes I am still losing weight. https://twitter.com/unic_eng/status/1219654660514107392 Permalink 9:16 AM – 21 Jan 2020
@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #extremedeadlifting @mises #MiloofCroton pic.twitter.com/SoyGWCcbnc Permalink 7:08 AM – 21 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Eastern Mediterranean Cosmopolitanism, open-minded, multicultural, tolerant and localist, preceded Arabist Fascism, Arabist Monocultural Nationalism, Arabist intolerance and Westernphobia. #Localism #BringLebanonBackToTheMed #Cyprus Permalink 5:57 AM – 21 Jan 2020
@MarinaStavrou9 Same with people… https://twitter.com/RealEmirHan/status/1219193479009574913 Permalink 2:10 AM – 21 Jan 2020
@nntaleb I did not *really* concede that it was tastier than the Beiruti one! I was being polite to my hosts! Meanwhile proud to be present at the inauguration of the “Makridakis Center for BS Busting in Forecasting”, MCBBF, more politely called the “Makr Open Forecasting Center” MOFC https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1219547062146084864 Permalink 1:15 AM – 21 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Traditionally, Greco-Phoenicians & Greco-Syrians had a Greek/Graeco-Roman & a Semitic name. Taleb = “Philologos”, scholar. pic.twitter.com/CmBYfugxUm Permalink 2:18 PM – 20 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Lefkosia, the competition between Lebanese and Cypriot squid ink. @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/Jaf601lvsm Permalink 11:26 AM – 20 Jan 2020
@nntaleb An apology is (almost always) an expression of submission. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1219231958875570177 Permalink 4:31 AM – 20 Jan 2020
@nntaleb There are two types of apologies. One by people relieving their conscience. The other is by those who are caught. Never trust those who apologize after being caught. Permalink 4:15 AM – 20 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Same effect (and more efficient) then to source from Turkey rather than either locally or from some place w/ a strong currency, no @EHSANI22 ? https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1219217093675114496 Permalink 4:10 AM – 20 Jan 2020
@nntaleb I mean what is the origin; even in Heb it is quadri גִלגוּל Permalink 2:49 AM – 20 Jan 2020
@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/51E6R4PwSX Permalink 1:07 AM – 20 Jan 2020
@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Friends, what is the root of the quadri تدحرج ? Permalink 12:48 AM – 20 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Always think “meta” https://twitter.com/LoveAcid/status/1219080627045224449 Permalink 12:43 AM – 20 Jan 2020
@nntaleb “Nudging” by that ignorant @R_Thaler https://twitter.com/justinowings/status/1219059978121560064 Permalink 12:38 AM – 20 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Is ay7uko from the E. Aramaic ayko? pic.twitter.com/YN0fva1UfL Permalink 10:16 PM – 19 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “Free markets eventually lead to free speech. Censorship by social media not compatible w/ free enterprise! Markets => Ideas, not reverse. ” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #markets Permalink 1:04 PM – 19 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Summary if discussion with Dan Azzi. 1) An explicit haircut reduces uncertainty. People are frozen; yuuge anxiety. 2) It is much much easier to scam atheists than religious people. The mind does not like a vacuum. Permalink 8:15 AM – 19 Jan 2020
@nntaleb A7uka visibly is only understood in the Koura valley. Permalink 3:32 AM – 19 Jan 2020
@nntaleb SemiticPhilological Mysteries du Jour “He/it is (here)” Innahu (huna) انه هنا (Arabic), Hebrew הוא כאן Now where are these from? la7uwwé (hon) (Beirut) sha77hu (hown) (Keserwan) a7uka (hawwn) (North Lebanon) The a7uka is pretty strange. Permalink 2:21 AM – 19 Jan 2020
@bounassif_rabih @nntaleb @businessinsider they do not mention the fact that you refused the refund without fair treatment to all other customers. https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-hell-help-tesla-customer-accidentally-spent-4333-2020-1 Permalink 11:33 PM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The worse problem is that probability uncertainty creates fat tails REGARDLESS of the environment https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.00277.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/O2jtxxZLCj”> pic.twitter.com/O2jtxxZLCj Permalink 5:34 PM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb I mean IN ADDITION to ergodicity there is the substitution of integrals when translated from artificial constructs into real life. The error is explicitly made by nudgeboy Thaler and Phil the rat Tetlock https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/4zx3JyfAvY”> pic.twitter.com/4zx3JyfAvY Permalink 5:25 PM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The main problem is that there is no such thing as explicit bets with known probabilities in real life. Only in shit papers like @R_Thaler read by ignorant psychologists. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WW3qwcRV6g”> pic.twitter.com/WW3qwcRV6g Permalink 5:22 PM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Watch the thread where nudgeboy @R_Thaler w/a “Nobel” is being taken to shreds by probabilists & quants. His Mickey Mouse™ framework cannot handle dynamics, time, hence he can’t get #ergodicity. Behavioral Economics is dead. I mean, dead. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1218356464034689024 Permalink 4:14 PM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 3) One TV intervention per decade, so far. My summary and solutions are here, with the TV lecture at USJ. I explained and introduced the notion of “Ponzi” & the train left the station. My summary is here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU Permalink 4:01 PM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 2) It is just that I am not interested in TV crap/conferences to minimize noise. Nor am I interested in selfies with rioters. #Lebanon #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 3:55 PM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb I can understand pple blaming me for not being in Lebanon during these difficult times… …except that I am in Lebanon. Indeed we should blame the diaspora pundits for lecturing & bullshitting w/o coming to show their face #skininthegame. I’ve been coming back every 3-4 w. Permalink 3:48 PM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb This is how one can skip the limit by the summation/integral inequality pic.twitter.com/kIyVyAgb1F Permalink 3:15 PM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Typo. I am integrating from 0^n not 1^n pic.twitter.com/jAeyKDAuIB Permalink 3:02 PM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Here is my solution. There is an alternative by @hvairinhos pic.twitter.com/bYj1c1sAb7 Permalink 2:57 PM – 18 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “Never allow unsollicited advice from friends. Every time someone gave me a “friendly advice” on 1) writing style, 2) trading strategy, 3) How I should not be weightlifting, 4) Why I shd be nice to Monsanto, etc., I’m glad I did opposite. Be stubborn.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 2:42 PM – 18 Jan 2020
@mikeandallie 2/3 if you follow @nntaleb ‘s writing, you’ll probably find this paragraph in the story to be particularly interesting: pic.twitter.com/WV2aSUIo33 Permalink 6:13 AM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb #localism From a #RWRI alumni https://twitter.com/diomavro/status/1218219039706710018 Permalink 2:57 AM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb This is a very, very, very unfair competition. Even if the squid comes from the same waters. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1218428997224292352 Permalink 2:55 AM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Math du Jour: a tricky limit pic.twitter.com/DDyu6Ci91T Permalink 1:18 AM – 18 Jan 2020
@nntaleb When I say @R_Thaler is the outlier fellow who got very, very far in life knowing nothing about probability. https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1218391685274750979 Permalink 12:16 AM – 18 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “Just as “political science” doesn’t have any science, “think tanks” are for people who don’t and can’t think.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:47 PM – 17 Jan 2020
@_barrelrider @nntaleb Evidence they say. https://www.wsj.com/articles/98-6-degrees-fahrenheit-isnt-the-average-any-more-11579257001 Permalink 4:11 PM – 17 Jan 2020
@calanmcdonald Thanks for escalating this @nntaleb. Same issue happened to me. Put phone in pocket, in 2 minutes got charged $13k for upgrades. That was Dec 28th. Local Tesla service center in Agoura has been fantastic in getting back to me with updates, but they seem stuck w/ Tesla Fremont. Permalink 4:07 PM – 17 Jan 2020
@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “Volatility is good, risk is not.” | “Only the hyper-paranoid survive.” | nailing 2 #RWRI -lessons with one strip | @nntaleb & Co. For more visit https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE For my books https://buff.ly/32k8OVz ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/MBWYCjq6d6″> pic.twitter.com/MBWYCjq6d6 Permalink 9:35 AM – 17 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Tinkering: fresh squid ink broth pic.twitter.com/2T49rdoyd0 Permalink 5:19 AM – 17 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Being rich is great for the wise (optionality), but a curse for the suckers as people prey on them & hijack their preferences. https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68 Permalink 5:13 AM – 17 Jan 2020
@nntaleb It is incredible how many problems money can create. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1217920978723975189 Permalink 4:55 PM – 16 Jan 2020
@nntaleb How your ideas become #Lindy https://twitter.com/philosophytweet/status/1217830140039790592 Permalink 7:57 AM – 16 Jan 2020
@nntaleb https://twitter.com/ingogun/status/1217825162139226113?s=20 Permalink 7:55 AM – 16 Jan 2020
@henrizaq Xaɕiiɕet le xruuf e rrekmė Ḍ Ṣ Ṭ hii mec bel xarf, bel masnad elli baɔd el xarf @lebaneselingui1 le mɔallem Rojėė ɕelu diraasė mfaṣṣlė ɔan hayda l mawḍuuɔ W biyɕuul li biymayyez ط ܛ Ṭ ɔan T ܬ ت Huu l masnad yalli waraaha Metel Ta= تا ܬܐ W Tɑ= طا ܛܐ #ɕalef #leggetna Permalink 5:33 AM – 16 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “”Start by being warm, pleasant, & generous w/every person you meet; but if someone tries to exercise power over you, exercise power over him; & if he messes w/you, remember to keep messing w/him long after he has forgotten about it”. Silver Rule of Fat Tony in #SkinInTheGame” Permalink 4:26 AM – 16 Jan 2020
@nntaleb #Localism https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1217779770794151937 Permalink 4:16 AM – 16 Jan 2020
@nntaleb This UN imbecile wants to grant more powers to #RiadPonzi? https://twitter.com/UNJanKubis/status/1217354961329250305 Permalink 2:06 AM – 16 Jan 2020
@nntaleb A lot of pple think one has to be pro or anti-Tesla. Life is nuanced! I love my Tesla, but customer service is terrible. (Used to be great but degraded sharply over the past 2 y. When I bought the car they used to come to you for repairs. No more). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1066322788657610752?s=20 Permalink 5:00 PM – 15 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Fi honik apologist la #RiadPonzi esmo الدكتور جواد خليل صالح المهن Fi 7ada bya3ref mino? Ma 3an lé2i bi Aachen. #lebanonprotests #لبنان_ينتفض pic.twitter.com/py8Jnl3Vhg Permalink 4:15 PM – 15 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Elon @elonmusk, your Customer Support at Tesla is even worse than I claimed last time. It is an insult to your customers. pic.twitter.com/3HZ2YSjigS Permalink 7:39 AM – 15 Jan 2020
@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/3VB7qrF4xF Permalink 4:35 AM – 15 Jan 2020
@nntaleb In other words, treating individuals as members of groups necessarily implies NO variance between individuals in that group. Permalink 4:23 AM – 15 Jan 2020
@nntaleb In PRINCIPIA POLITICA I state that it both unethical & unscientific to look at a person’s population traits rather his/her own –both a sampling problem & racism. Treat individuals as individuals not as a members of a group. pic.twitter.com/nE2eHvup5r Permalink 4:12 AM – 15 Jan 2020
@nntaleb “Caused by” of course here should be “may have been caused by” Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Connection to localism: small fires reduce connectivity. Permalink 2:43 AM – 15 Jan 2020
@nntaleb @black_swan_man pic.twitter.com/cxeE3224jv Permalink 2:40 AM – 15 Jan 2020
@nntaleb FOREST FIRES IN AUSTRALIA: Caused by irresponsible bureaucrats creating chaos by seeking stability. #Antifragile has sections on forest fires & ancestral heuristics (s.a. cultural burning) that “make no sense” to ignorant nudgeboys Sunstein & Thaler & scientistic bureaucrats. https://twitter.com/tompccs/status/1216755462265352193 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sYHYpm3Udh”> pic.twitter.com/sYHYpm3Udh Permalink 9:41 PM – 14 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “As a general rule, most “regrets” after one is caught’s aren’t regrets about having committed the action, but regrets about having been caught. Apologies count only when they are spontaneous, coming out of deep principles. Otherwise they are just an expression of submission.” Permalink 9:08 PM – 14 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Definition Du Jour An intellectual is a designation for someone who, should she or he stopped writing, will never be read again. Permalink 4:34 PM – 14 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Beirut is an unusual place. Ads now target rioters. pic.twitter.com/VZCQUa8FWd Permalink 12:47 PM – 14 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Beirut squid ink. No rice, no pasta, just squid in its ink. The best. Everything is 100% local. pic.twitter.com/wGBp5ZeyHH Permalink 6:08 AM – 14 Jan 2020
@JeanMarcMjbr From the peculiarities of the Lebanese language Eng: Sunrise Fre: Lever du soleil Ar: شروق الشمس Ita: Levata del sole Lebanese: Tiiz d-daww Permalink 3:07 AM – 14 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 2) One of my summaries explaining how Phil-the-Rat Tetlock’s @ptetlock’s comments on forecasting, tails & GMOs are verbalisms, that is, BS. (From Book. Paper coming out soon in Int Journal of Forecasting.) pic.twitter.com/erjK2bFhNX Permalink 10:54 AM – 13 Jan 2020
@nntaleb OK, OK, people are figuring out how Nudgeboy Thaler et al. /Behavioral Econ is pseudoscience. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-13/behavioral-economics-latest-bias-seeing-bias-wherever-it-looks Permalink 10:48 AM – 13 Jan 2020
@nntaleb How to get out of the credulity rut (regression discontinuity edition): Getting beyond whack-a-mole « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/13/how-to-get-out-of-the-credulity-rut-regression-discontinuity-edition-getting-beyond-whack-a-mole/#.Xhys4ec_otU.twitter Permalink 9:46 AM – 13 Jan 2020
@tompccs “But local authorities have forbidden them from cultural burning when they’ve asked for permission.” Cultural practices, including religous ritual, are #antifragile @nntaleb https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51043828 Permalink 8:14 AM – 13 Jan 2020
@nntaleb BS BUSTING DU JOUR: Vernaculars are not لهجة, that is, a corrupted form of Classical Arabic, as is commonly taught in schools. @Safaitic https://www.academia.edu/38100372/Al-Jallad._A_Manual_of_the_Historical_Grammar_of_Arabic ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/MlvOHALtSm”> pic.twitter.com/MlvOHALtSm Permalink 7:36 AM – 13 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The only EMPIRICAL test is the real world, corrected for circularity (test takers get jobs). I looked at the data IQ-income. No real association outside clinical situations. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1216722389112885248?s=20 Permalink 6:24 AM – 13 Jan 2020
@HarryDCrane The fallacy of the “open science” movement is its quest to standardize everything. What has happened with standardized testing is happening in science. Rewards those who can follow instructions – usually not people with highly original ideas. https://twitter.com/harrydcrane/status/1216487881864359936 Permalink 6:05 AM – 13 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Another point about IQ idiots. They think that “correlation” is an “empirical” result. CORRELATION IS NOT AN “EMPIRICAL RESULT”, but a math construct that is only informative under specific assumptions, not met with IQ. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ Permalink 6:03 AM – 13 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 1) Actually the result is older. 2) This is not an IQ test, but IQ style standardization of performance. Point is that you can train (or the environment can train) people at producing such results in a non ecological way. 3) The deeper problem is that we DONT know future demands Permalink 5:47 AM – 13 Jan 2020
@nntaleb French philosophy textbooks misattribute it to Montaigne: “philosopher, c’est apprendre a mourir”, who himself (not really knowing Greek) misattributed to Cicero (Tota enim philosophorum vita, ut ait idem, commentatio mortis) (Standard textbook for bac. https://la-philosophie.com/philosopher-apprendre-mourir-montaigne ) https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1216681798429741057 Permalink 5:16 AM – 13 Jan 2020
@nntaleb YUUGE RESULT OF 2019: a chimp beats humans at some kind of IQ style tests. It is not just IQ: this is the defeat of standardized testing, university admission, school evaluation. They select people good at *some* tests. https://twitter.com/ThornCharmer/status/1214110157900275713 Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Coach Rippetoe’s @CoachRippetoe minimum effective dose of training. Explains the difference between exercise and training. “Not the same ting”. https://startingstrength.com/article/the-minimum-effective-dose-of-training Permalink 5:40 PM – 12 Jan 2020
@nntaleb In the hierarchy Erudite>>Philosopher (Analytic)> scholar>>academic>>”thinker”> “intellectual”>journalist (real type)>psycholophaster> BSVendor… Among the “conservatives”, Scruton was on top & there are few above BS vendor to replace him. Murray & Peterson are junk thought. Permalink 2:43 PM – 12 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Since Sir Roger’s interview trap, I’ve decided to record all my conversations with journalists. pic.twitter.com/2LkCGk6NSK Permalink 2:34 PM – 12 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The solution The generalization is still running pic.twitter.com/JRHXTKqvaW Permalink 2:10 PM – 12 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Something as trivial as standard deviation is misunderstood by users and statisticians. pic.twitter.com/5zlGXoSk8X Permalink 1:02 PM – 12 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Roger Scruton. Your memory and your work will be remembered. Ad vitam aeternam. Fiercely independent, he was one of the last thinkers who used their own head. Permalink 12:45 PM – 12 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Imperial Romans were still East Meds/Anatolians… Caesar looked like a barber in Damascus or the newly elected mayor in cental Anatolian village. https://twitter.com/TrimontiumTrust/status/1216083085198012416 Permalink 6:40 AM – 12 Jan 2020
@nntaleb To repeat from my previous thread on Empires’ business model: Regime change is NOT the reason empires intervene; rather to squash defiance & force submission. U.S. not asking for regime change in S. Arabia. It wanted one in Lybia, Syria. Defiance weakens the business model. pic.twitter.com/bY6bNQvE7N Permalink 4:52 AM – 12 Jan 2020
@nntaleb هيدا ضرب زكا. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1216114167108849665 Permalink 3:36 AM – 12 Jan 2020
@nntaleb In the past, I would have reacted more favorably towards/defended Iran. But I am waking up every day angry with the regime over the DIRECT killing/execution of >1500 Iranian & >300 Iraqi Shiite kids. Systematic Killing of protesters … I can’t bear. Permalink 12:37 PM – 11 Jan 2020
@TrimontiumTrust A breathtaking reconstruction of Julius Caesar taken from his bust in the Vatican Museums. See more on their Facebook page here https://www.facebook.com/606887369692297/videos/vb.606887369692297/2570394953205942/?type=2&theater https://twitter.com/sUAtateslier/status/1215693850708185090 Permalink 11:42 AM – 11 Jan 2020
@nntaleb It is honorable to own one’s mistake; particularly one that carries tragic consequences. However, blaming another country for one’s mistake, in addition, is shoddy & an insult to the victims. It is like a drunk driver blaming the traffic light manufacturer for a fatal accident. https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1215847283381755914 Permalink 11:31 AM – 11 Jan 2020
@nntaleb “In any profession, nine tenth of the people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing.” Bed of Procrustes, 3rd Ed. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1215819831351660544 Permalink 10:00 AM – 11 Jan 2020
@swerengensky HOW TO HANLDE AN EVALUATION FORM WHILE BEING REVIEWED BY YOUR BOSS. Source: a truly antifragile ‘The Black Swan’ by @nntaleb. Location: Mediterranean Sea. pic.twitter.com/o9Q4zzmAsz Permalink 9:14 AM – 11 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 2) Marx’s theory of alienation is correct: (Workers separated from the product) This applies to the chain: executives are punished by desk work & meetings, etc. for 60 hours a week, then forced to retire which is a death sentence. There is no life but the #artisanal life Permalink 7:05 AM – 11 Jan 2020
@nntaleb WHAT I LEARNED IN 2019 1)Modern publishing is not #Lindy (ugly books); we have the capability to make books ornate. 2) Authors can derive g. satisfaction writing WHILE typesetting. Much like painters & artisans. Division of labor kills the soul https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ https://twitter.com/erik_kwakkel/status/1181962553628483584 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/60EFWqkeGo”> pic.twitter.com/60EFWqkeGo Permalink 6:34 AM – 11 Jan 2020
@nntaleb There was perhaps no Soleimani threat (at least nothing new). And there was no need for it. Trump borrowed an old Persian trick: put the head of a horse in the enemy’s bed. https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49 Permalink 4:59 AM – 11 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 5) There was perhaps no Soleimani threat (at least nothing new) & no need for it to intervene. What Trump did was directly borrowed from an old Iranian trick: put an horse in the enemy’s bed. https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49 Permalink 4:42 AM – 11 Jan 2020
@nntaleb DAVOS MEMORY: I called it the IAND (International Association of Name Droppers). 5 y ago, their head of communication @amonck tried to smear me, saying I didn’t mention Popper in The Black Swan (Popper is mentioned 53 times). They are even incompetent at smearing. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1089160889503285253 Permalink 2:32 PM – 10 Jan 2020
@nntaleb This public shaming is the most effective use of the minority rule: ethics is highly asymmetric! https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Jan 2020
@nntaleb What makes it easy is that Lebanon is small (5 mil) and Beirut is about 1 mil. There is no Washington DC or Brasilia for politicians to hide. Permalink 10:36 AM – 10 Jan 2020
@nntaleb VERY EFFECTIVE STRATEGY IN #LebanonProtests Shame politicians & bureaucrats by booing them in restaurants & public places. It is yuuuugely effective. pic.twitter.com/iGPmzpVaaD Permalink 10:31 AM – 10 Jan 2020
@nntaleb MY LIST, 1 +Loeve, 2 vol +Karatzas & Shreve +Cover and Thomas, El of Inf Th +Embrechts et al (or De Haan and Fereira) on EVT +Gnedenko & Kolmogorov- Limits +Doob Stochastic Processes +Uchaikin & Zolotarev or Samorodinsky & Taqqu on Stable +Billingsley: Prob. & Measure Borel pic.twitter.com/VP4yHv7EvZ Permalink 10:25 AM – 10 Jan 2020
@polemitis Thrilled to have @nntaleb keynoting the launch of the MOFC on January 21st @UNIC_ENG. Open to the public, but please RSVP to mcompetitions@unic.ac.cy https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1215669836212133889 Permalink 8:29 AM – 10 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Jan 21, the official launch in Lefkosia (Nicosia) of the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center, MOFC (a.k.a. Makridakis BS debunker in forecasting MBSDF). Cypriot & Phoenician (white) wine, local squid ink. pic.twitter.com/72UTvMmx9e Permalink 8:20 AM – 10 Jan 2020
@chasechandler Hmm…Where have I heard this before? A paper from BCG – “Thinking Biologically” – reads like a summary of Antifragile or #RWRI lecture. @normonics @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/ioX4bu21SX Permalink 7:45 AM – 10 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 6) “Show me the man & I will find you the crime”. — Practically every executive & politician in Japan (& France) has as some side benefit been invited to stretch the law a little bit. Then “they” can use it when the person becomes bothersome. Gray areas become black or white. Permalink 7:36 AM – 10 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The fact is that Nissan lured Ghosn into coming to Japan; jumping bail for entrapment is fair game. And to see how vicious the system is: Nissan was the one doing surveillance on Ghosn when he was out on bail. Nissan, not the government. https://twitter.com/oztran/status/1215656273347112960?s=20 Permalink 7:30 AM – 10 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Negative forecasting via the #Lindy effect pic.twitter.com/Qcxszce6wN Permalink 8:05 AM – 9 Jan 2020
@nntaleb You can buy anyone. Well, almost. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1215258903912550401 Permalink 5:23 AM – 9 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Friends, we have women scholarships open for #RWRI 13 http://www.realworldrisk.com Permalink 4:21 AM – 9 Jan 2020
@JYuter Please remind me how the Jews fared under Communist Russia. https://twitter.com/jacobinmag/status/1214820785606610944 Permalink 2:36 AM – 9 Jan 2020
@yannispetro Modelling #Lindy as a stopping time. Thank you @nntaleb for the intuition! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1215056089517035521 Permalink 5:20 PM – 8 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Bingo https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1215066143519436801?s=20 Permalink 5:00 PM – 8 Jan 2020
@nntaleb I deny all involvement in the matter. I deny having ever tried to set him up. I deny, deny, deny. I am innocent. https://twitter.com/wolandov555/status/1215059700284149760?s=20 Permalink 4:46 PM – 8 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Among other things, the ONLY way to model #Lindy is via a stochastic process. It is probability, not statistics or, worse, “data science”. #ThingsToFinishIn2020 https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1215001345893253128 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/paXcqOxQf7″> pic.twitter.com/paXcqOxQf7 Permalink 3:42 PM – 8 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Someone got Krugman to *deny* he uses child pornography. https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1214991222009409536 Permalink 2:39 PM – 8 Jan 2020
@HarryDCrane It’s a sad state of affairs that majority of Statistic Depts in US have no more than 1 probabilist on faculty. And many have 0. Many PhD programs don’t even teach probability or stochastic processes anymore. Meaning next generation doesn’t learn it, or they take in math Dept. Permalink 12:04 PM – 8 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Footnote 3: In his defense, Trump started by trying to “negotiate” with the Persian regime. They said no. Then he rapidly saw they have relatively ZERO military power & shd start making them aware of it. He thinks he can one day make them an offer they can’t refuse. Permalink 10:44 AM – 8 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Footnote 2: Neocons with Platonic ideas & Hilarist interventionists are just nerds (IYIs) who never had a real job in their lives. They can’t figure out the game but promote it; thus have been ideal operators for the Millitary Complex. Permalink 8:11 AM – 8 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Footnote 1: Hanibal left the Italian Peninsula because the Senate in Carthage cut him off, with the message: “We’re not in that business”. Carthage was too profitable from trade and agriculture to follow the millitaristic route. Permalink 6:42 AM – 8 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 4) Plus charge the Europeans for protection. Recall an Empire’s military must be self-financing. Or perhaps, exit that model (Rand Paul style noninterventionism, to which I subscribe) Permalink 6:38 AM – 8 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 3) Iraq War had little to do w/anything but model consistency: as w/the Judean rebellion, punish insubordination/defiance, reward economic submission. Clarity of mind: Trump figured out THAT business model (i) REQUIRES direct punishment of Iranian Regime, or (ii) change model Permalink 6:36 AM – 8 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 2) U.S. has a greater relative military capability in history. Makes no sense: (i) w/o exacting protection money (Europe pays little even indirect), (ii) w/defiant states. Empires’ model is to crush defiant states, plunder & parade Vercingetorix, Zenobia,… Saddam. Permalink 6:23 AM – 8 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Thread on US/IRAN 1) An empire (say Rome) is built on an army that is self financing. Military supremacy generates income. Division of Specialization: If you are money-making (say Phoenicians) then you don’t need an army, you just pay whoever runs that business for protection. Permalink 5:52 AM – 8 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Finally, some clarity in my life. Manti, Shish Borek (my favorite), Kinkhali, Pelmeni, etc. all come from the Chinese steamed/fried dumplings that made NY worth living. https://twitter.com/ykomska/status/1213908289899126785 Permalink 2:57 PM – 7 Jan 2020
@nntaleb I love my Tesla. But service, when you need it… Permalink 12:35 PM – 7 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Tesla, @elonmusk, has to work on its customer service & service centers. I mean, really work on it. Permalink 9:03 AM – 7 Jan 2020
@nntaleb What I am learning today is that unless the quote is fabricated, Einstein did not know about trial and error, or, for that matter, the problem of induction. https://twitter.com/gusskabbara/status/1214558489067966464 Permalink 7:13 AM – 7 Jan 2020
@nntaleb As you get richer, you can feel safer, & don’t give a f**ck of what people think (if you invest safely). As you get more *prominent*, get an academic or political position or some accolade (Nobel prize), you are much more vulnerable as you have much further to fall. Permalink 1:13 PM – 6 Jan 2020
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 (One more) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1164138535919718400 Permalink 1:04 PM – 6 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “If you are trying to be liked by both the left and the right, you are a demagogue. If you don’t mind being hated by both, you are morally upright.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/198481981X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=198481981X&linkCode=as2&tag=getwisertlb-20 Permalink 10:41 AM – 6 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Not a general rule; but remember there have been at least 2000 funerals in Iraq and Iran (all Shiites) of kids killed by the regime. Permalink 9:10 AM – 6 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Crowds are complex. The more they mourn your departure, the more they welcome new policies. As with Nasser’s funeral, they say goodbuy to both him and his policies. Le roi est mort vive le roi. https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/1214223199166222336 Permalink 8:51 AM – 6 Jan 2020
@black_swan_man Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @POTUS @realDonaldTrump #SantaClaus #rally #protection pic.twitter.com/uGYUvN2kGS Permalink 6:39 AM – 6 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The final version. pic.twitter.com/mGeZuP5xgH Permalink 6:30 AM – 6 Jan 2020
@nntaleb The clarity of mind of pundits, journalists and political commentators discussing the Soleimani affair. pic.twitter.com/957DPvWfOG Permalink 6:19 AM – 6 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Here is my treatment of standard deviation/variance as a bogus metric even in the Gaussian world when scaled back in terms of informmation. pic.twitter.com/pIZbPrd9wx Permalink 5:45 AM – 6 Jan 2020
@nntaleb (The original Latin expression was written by Ulpian in Berytus: Durum hoc est sed ita lex scripta est). Permalink 5:03 AM – 6 Jan 2020
@nntaleb CLASSICISM DUJOUR Friends, looking for an ancient expression ~ mafia’s philosophical “it is what it is” (in The Irishman). In Latin: “dura lex sed lex”, in French: “c’est la vie”, or the great Mutanabbi’s يشتهي البحر ما لا تشتهي السفن Theremustbebetterones cc:@ArmandDAngour pic.twitter.com/w3ksNb7WXC Permalink 4:44 AM – 6 Jan 2020
@infernoxv Merry Christmas to my friends on the right calendar! Քրիստոս Ծնաւ և Յայտնեցաւ! Χριστός Γεννάται! Христос Рождаєтьсѧ! Christus Natus Est! Hristos se Naşte! وُلِد المسـيحُ، فَمَـجِّدُوه (Armenian icon, 18th century Madonna with Child and the 12 Apostles). pic.twitter.com/oomfr85r8o Permalink 1:25 AM – 6 Jan 2020
@BrankoMilan “very few people are able to create systems of thought that go across multiple disciplines and display internal coherence.” This was my conclusion re. @nntaleb system. And regularly, perhaps once a month, somebody writes me about that. http://glineq.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-importance-of-talebs-system-from.html Permalink 4:33 PM – 5 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 4) And the world is differentfromwhatitwasin 1979,1991,2004. Hypersonic missiles (the one that hit Soleimani) have compounded US military superiority via yuuuuge gains in precision. For Trump, very tempting to use. See the prophetic op-ed by @sns_1239 https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1212921826440962048?s=20 Permalink 3:04 PM – 5 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 3) PROXY WARS: For instance you cannot believe how sick & tired the Lebanese are of Iran wanting to use Lebanon to fight Israel; why the fuck don’t they fight directly w/o putting the #skininthegame of other countries’ innocent civilians and NOT one’s own? That was 2 weeks ago pic.twitter.com/U0TK9UeQLl Permalink 2:39 PM – 5 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 2) I believe in FULL noninterventionism. But if two countries or regimes want to fuck with one another, they must do so directly and without involving bystanders. #Localism Permalink 2:09 PM – 5 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Basically the indirect, proxy wars between the US & Iran were both offensive to the victims (Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc.) & allowed this indirect hostility to carry on for 4 decades! By threatening to directly hit Iran, Trump, forbetterorworse, is making it simple: war or peace https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1213835292756643850 Permalink 1:40 PM – 5 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Meanwhile we are not getting into this riddle for the inequality, rather the beautiful properties of the integral of x^x and its mystery! @joe_shipman Permalink 9:18 AM – 5 Jan 2020
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1112690030135398400 Permalink 8:04 AM – 5 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Can Trump’s unpredictability and randomness of reactions be an effective foreign policy? From Fooled by Randomness (INCERTO, vol 1). How injecting uncertainty in your decision making is a potent deterrent as others don’t know how you OVERREACT. pic.twitter.com/9zrF6YPxqw Permalink 6:51 AM – 5 Jan 2020
@sean_a_mcclure https://twitter.com/sean_a_mcclure/status/1211127151908442113 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/aaVmNDf9Bv”> pic.twitter.com/aaVmNDf9Bv Permalink 4:58 AM – 5 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/jE14Nuj8EN Permalink 2:32 PM – 4 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Shiism, much like Christianity, is based on martyrdom. Someone in Washington doesn’t get it. #Soleimani Permalink 12:18 PM – 3 Jan 2020
@nntaleb This is unfair to Naval as he limits stuff to his specialty. But basically, once a free person decides to act as a public judge he/she, should have no friends –just look at the world as a judge in a courthouse. Public “intellectuals” are usually propagandists. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1212527237003649024 Permalink 9:11 AM – 3 Jan 2020
@nntaleb I have no idea. Questions: what was Soleimani’s role in the repression of the Iraq riots? the Iran riots? I have no idea there as well. Thanks. https://twitter.com/HannesM1/status/1213078343287017475?s=20 Permalink 5:07 AM – 3 Jan 2020
@nntaleb It is a matter of scale, @MaxAbrahms: – In a localist system with distributed agents (s.a. Qaeda, ISIS), decapitation is not effective by definition since there is no HEAD. – In a centralized one, it’s only effective where policy depends on a HEAD. Imagine history w/o Bonaparte https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1212930025273606145 Permalink 4:29 AM – 3 Jan 2020
@LTF_01 Truly a Roman among Greeks – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/neuroecology/status/1212420139578036225 Permalink 1:26 PM – 2 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 5) I don’t know Ghosn & never socialize with people who like panache, glitz, and play hotshots while being on a salary. I don’t like his style (philistinic). But I think he is a highly capable man, will defend his right to defend himself & I respect him for his escape. Gabish? Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 4) No, I m not claiming Carlos Ghosn is innocent. My point is that Japan (a country of systematic coverups & feudal alliances) is NOT the place for the trial of foreigners Actually Japan is not the place for any trial & Highest mob involvement in the “legit” economy in the world Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Jan 2020
@TalebWisdom “There are three types of people. 1) Those who say eliminating mosquitoes is a great thing, book a trip to Alaska/Siberia. 2) Those who reflect, & look at second order effects, particularly when those exist: the cause of the Great Famine under Mao. 3) Those who get convexity.” Permalink 3:29 AM – 2 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 3) No, no, I am not related to Carlos Ghosn. My mother’s family name is Ghosn but different origin: Greek Orthodox from the Saliba branch (Stavros) while Carlos Ghosn is Maronite. Permalink 7:01 PM – 1 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 2) Remember that Ghosn’s arrest was a set-up by prosecutors and colluding Nissan people. It is fair to say “f**ck you” to you in return and enjoy nice fresh organic & Lebanese wine tabbouleh in Achrafieh (near my grandparents & parents house). Permalink 4:54 PM – 1 Jan 2020
@nntaleb So you are proud of your legal system that puts people in cages waiting for them to break down physically & emotionally? Whatever one can blame Ghosn for, I am proud of his escape and the way he say “f**k you” to you & your system. Bravo Carlos G. –and especially Carole! https://twitter.com/MasuzoeYoichi/status/1212343774879182848 Permalink 3:52 PM – 1 Jan 2020
@GuruAnaerobic Poll: Who are treated the worst? Permalink 3:34 PM – 1 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Curious events in 2019: Moscow airport, 10 religious Jews, thinking I was Persian, approached me in Farsi; wanted me to read Cyrillic for the gate for “Tehron” No English,No Russian Found myself speaking Hebrew w/Iranian Jews & took them to their gate Stange Iranian tolerance Permalink 2:10 PM – 1 Jan 2020
@nntaleb (cont) pic.twitter.com/PTR0tI4V3G Permalink 1:16 PM – 1 Jan 2020
@nntaleb Most productive Jan 1 ever: finished the Glossary. Explained the Pinker Problem (naive empiricism, confirmatory positivism or the inference of the imbecile). pic.twitter.com/zexlXtMxfC Permalink 1:16 PM – 1 Jan 2020
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS of 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/991133488198897666 Permalink 10:59 AM – 1 Jan 2020
@nntaleb 2- The entire problem of Japan is that they specialized in perfecting what others invent, which can only take you so fat. Traders failure is not accepted; there is yuuuge number of traders who turn into Madoff after hiding a loss then do a hara kiri. https://twitter.com/RobRastapop/status/1212386078553853957?s=20 Permalink 10:37 AM – 1 Jan 2020
@BLebnene W hay riznemit l 2020 saarit jehze! Kill shaher fii matal Libnene 3anno, w suura min turaasna Llibnene, w akiid iyyem l esbuu3. Yalle bi7ebb yitba3a w ysherika ma3na! W yin3aad 3laykon w nshalla tkuun sinit kher 3al kill. Nbusto llayle w diiro belkon! https://drive.google.com/open?id=1E82yjOSx_2cmBZq58l1nDH8I4yNI4SRo https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1211057051721437185 Permalink 6:55 AM – 31 Dec 2019
@nntaleb RACISM SYMPOSIUM — Friends, running Twitter symposia around topics in PRINCIPIA POLITICA. The comments will be integrated in the text. https://academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/xwDsu9ExHJ”> pic.twitter.com/xwDsu9ExHJ Permalink 4:41 AM – 31 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Book being here https://fooledbyrandomness.com/dobelli.htm Permalink 12:33 PM – 30 Dec 2019
@nntaleb So Mr Warburton @philosophybites you don’t feel dishonorable promoting a plagiarized book, after being made aware of it? https://twitter.com/philosophybites/status/1204215650635268096 Permalink 12:26 PM – 30 Dec 2019
@nntaleb This regression’s sole aim is to make IQ Eugenists and Quilettists look good. https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1211682959994081280 Permalink 8:33 AM – 30 Dec 2019
@nntaleb strict Permalink 7:47 AM – 30 Dec 2019
@nntaleb In addition to SPURIOUS correlation from data insufficiency under fat tails, correlation requires strick linear relationship Y=a+b X. Otherwise uninformative. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ Permalink 7:43 AM – 30 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 My Lecture in Lebanese “From Ponzi to Localism” at the USJ, on Leb TV, during the riots. It angered, among others, #RiadPonzi and the bankers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU&lc=UgyptrdHQVyeh_UIpvR4AaABAg Permalink 6:10 AM – 30 Dec 2019
@nntaleb I wrote this in 2007: How can you tell a cultural philistine? At the Kulback-Leibler differential with the common culture. pic.twitter.com/H0qksdgcBM Permalink 12:49 PM – 29 Dec 2019
@nntaleb OK, OK, here are (some of) the books I enjoyed in 2019. pic.twitter.com/UqarbFAPJ6 Permalink 12:10 PM – 29 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Tell me what you don’t read, I will tell you who you are. Bed of Procrustes 3rd ed. https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1211329751715065861 Permalink 8:56 AM – 29 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Tell me what you read, I will tell you who you are! These are largely newspaper articles under bindings. The probability of any of these books surviving a decade (except perhaps Darlymple & Murakami) so tiny. Not #Lindy #ReadRealBooks https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1211033245812441091 Permalink 7:28 AM – 29 Dec 2019
@benkunz Remind me to never pick a fight with Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Here he knocks down the very premise of IQ tests, apropos of the NYT op-ed scandal. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1211056571427540994 Permalink 7:02 AM – 29 Dec 2019
@TalebWisdom “You will never know if someone is an asshole until he becomes rich.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:10 AM – 29 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1118272590416613376 Permalink 3:43 AM – 29 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082063513961533440 Permalink 3:41 AM – 29 Dec 2019
@nntaleb One of the myths is that the “rich gets richer”. It is almost always different people who are getting richer, owing to rotation at the top. The richest 1% of 2019 are not quite the same as the richest 1% of 2009, etc. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 #ergodicity https://twitter.com/fionncoll/status/1211234632508878854 Permalink 3:38 AM – 29 Dec 2019
@largbae Douma chemical weapons attack was staged… @nntaleb called this back when it happened, Assad sucks but he had no reason to undermine his own cause… So what was the real reason for the attack? https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/1210564199161708545 Permalink 8:01 PM – 28 Dec 2019
@fexplosiong Thank you for this! pic.twitter.com/vT2qXKVNSf Permalink 3:42 PM – 28 Dec 2019
@nntaleb FORGOT A BIG HIGHLIGHT OF 2019 https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 2:49 PM – 28 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Saar 3am yktob Gebran @Gebran_Bassil bil Lebnéné (Kn3ané) lght l balad. Bravo w mamnunin! #Localism https://twitter.com/Gebran_Bassil/status/1210866433959313408 Permalink 2:38 PM – 28 Dec 2019
@nntaleb This is going viral: I’ve written in the past 5 articles for the NYT under pressure from publisher. I hated the compromise. The optimal strategy is the #barbell: Twitter + Books (+math appendices) https://twitter.com/ByYourLogic/status/1210970412177330178 Permalink 11:30 AM – 28 Dec 2019
@nntaleb …which is why I insist that I’ve written only ONE single piece, a book (Incerto, 5 volumes) and its technical endnotes and appendix (Technical Incerto, TK so far 2 volumes, comprising papers). Permalink 8:52 AM – 28 Dec 2019
@nntaleb In #FooledByRandomness I explain an aspect of it: the more frequent the sampling the higher the noise. pic.twitter.com/czFwBbqrm8 Permalink 8:47 AM – 28 Dec 2019
@nntaleb The mechanism in #Antifragile: spurious correlations (and “results”) are convex to number of variables. pic.twitter.com/NlgPLPP2Un Permalink 8:40 AM – 28 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Recall that the more information you get, the more disproportionately higher the ratio of noise to signal. Say, a little bit of information, 50% noise; a lot, 99.9% noise. Likewise, in any field, the higher the number of academic publications the higher the ratio of garbage. Permalink 8:28 AM – 28 Dec 2019
@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/qUiEGYJ4a7 Permalink 6:24 AM – 28 Dec 2019
@nntaleb One more result for 2019″: What You See and What You Don’t See https://www.academia.edu/41450198/What_You_See_and_What_You_Dont_See_The_Hidden_Moments_of_a_Probability_Distribution ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/AR4TP5iCt2″> pic.twitter.com/AR4TP5iCt2 Permalink 5:25 AM – 28 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Among the best skills for real life: the ability to be bored early. Permalink 3:03 PM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1180123451446743040 Permalink 10:51 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Last piece of research of 2019: PCA maps for genetics https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics Permalink 10:47 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@MaxAbrahms The US attacked Syria for a chemical attack by Assad last year. But official #OPCW scientists who investigated the event didn’t find evidence the Syrian military used chemical weapons. The media has chosen to ignore this story & fire its own journalists who try to report on it. Permalink 8:03 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb I have severe Bullshitphobia. I was told it was uncurable. https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1210587390848458753 Permalink 7:48 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1183796584225619972 Permalink 5:43 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1175669049990275072 Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1166281708825645056 Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1163544326829412352 Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1160246858977095680 Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1170742156023275521 Permalink 5:41 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1180589233641181185 Permalink 5:41 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1172864041016090624 Permalink 5:40 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1180252513095897089 Permalink 5:39 AM – 27 Dec 2019
@nntaleb https://twitter.com/ErnestBoehm/status/1210254177479335938 Permalink 9:41 AM – 26 Dec 2019
@TalebWisdom “Psychologists use “IQ” to politely put people & entire races in boxes with the label “idiots”, and stick them there for a lifetime. They ruin people’s careers and potentials. Politely. I call psychologists (& IQ mountebanks) idiots to their face. Not politely.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:34 AM – 26 Dec 2019
@nntaleb https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1210239645486919680?s=20 Permalink 8:54 AM – 26 Dec 2019
@henrizaq ɕeza baddaq Lebnėėn yṣiir yecbah Swiisra Ballec bel xarf. #ɕalef Permalink 8:25 AM – 26 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Preliminary result for entropy based genetic maps. Might change the way we view distances between population and rates of inbreeding. pic.twitter.com/R30uedJCP8 Permalink 6:55 AM – 26 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Edited pic.twitter.com/wO4bLMUMN1 Permalink 5:55 AM – 26 Dec 2019
@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HpIDw9gK6Y Permalink 5:43 AM – 26 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Rule 1: The more you overreact w/some, the less you need to react w/others. As w/the IRS: increase the penalty & lower your audit rate. Rule 2: when a fraud fucks w/you, say @charlesmurray, @mpigliucci, @sapinker, @SamHarrisOrg or @Noahpinion, keep busting them for decades! Permalink 4:50 AM – 26 Dec 2019
@nntaleb https://twitter.com/GregorySMcMurry/status/1210160773634412545?s=20 Permalink 3:41 AM – 26 Dec 2019
@nntaleb If anyone tries to bully you, there is one and one way to react: ignore or overreact. By overreact I mean, really, overreact. https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1209869444626952192 Permalink 2:55 AM – 26 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Every Christmas I need to make the point that no, the Christ was not a … Since I wrote this piece we got overwhelming DNA evidence during 2019 that Southern Levantines had indistinguishable DNA from that of Imperial Romans. https://link.medium.com/5wC4Ie9QB2 Permalink 11:47 AM – 25 Dec 2019
@nntaleb And if he read the Torah by himself (possible but not likely): Hebrew was NOT spoken anymore. Like Latin in the 19th C. Permalink 11:25 AM – 25 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Coptic was never a lingua franca, Latin was only *spoken* in Beirut and Baalbeck (outside the legions) and he might have had a smattering of Greek which was limited to coastal/urban Phoenicia. Permalink 11:22 AM – 25 Dec 2019
@nntaleb He was the son of a carpenter. One thing I’ve learned over a long life: when someone knows French they make sure to make you aware of it. Permalink 11:15 AM – 25 Dec 2019
@nntaleb (Cont) plus the Galilean dialect. Permalink 11:09 AM – 25 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Only Aramaic https://twitter.com/astratelates/status/1209898634302517251 Permalink 11:08 AM – 25 Dec 2019
@nntaleb HEAVY TAILS 2019 pic.twitter.com/zIJH0vqR9G Permalink 9:29 AM – 25 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Messiah meant “anointed” (with holy oil). For Jesus Christ it was metaphoric, replaced by baptism. pic.twitter.com/gTdmN0Y93y Permalink 6:18 AM – 25 Dec 2019
@nntaleb BS vendors should be spared today. This is an appeal to members of the *probabilists BS busting Squad* & other #RWRI activists to refrain from exposing people owing to the spirit of the holidays. Permalink 6:13 AM – 25 Dec 2019
@nntaleb And in Semitic languages, the word Christ (Ms(h)7)משיח has the same root as ms7 “to wipe”, משחה, “ointment”, to surface/area (masaa7a مساحة)… https://twitter.com/JAJafri/status/1209418574248452096 Permalink 5:33 AM – 25 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Merry Christmas everyone! Χρόνια Πολλά! Permalink 2:59 AM – 25 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Variance is not a good measure of noise in a system. How it scales with entropy. pic.twitter.com/f2e1TFTIJx Permalink 1:26 AM – 25 Dec 2019
@AhsanDeliri Lessons of 2019: 1) Correlation isn’t close to what you think it actually is. 2) Most people don’t know statistics let alone probability. 3) It’s not that field is lacking earnest students. It’s that the field is taught wrong all around. 4) A second rate statistician is deadly Permalink 7:51 PM – 24 Dec 2019
@nntaleb The same with infinite expectations under Fat Tails! https://twitter.com/fermatslibrary/status/1209476628050587648 Permalink 2:35 PM – 24 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Dead people are very, very good at keeping secrets. https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1209108187741212672 Permalink 3:33 PM – 23 Dec 2019
@nntaleb 5) When people deny they “unconditional support” it means they “unconditionally support”. The Iranians killed ~1500 kids. Even if the number if off, it is immoral to stay silent, @snarwani, & even more immoral to blindly claim Western propaganda. pic.twitter.com/3d9yMBYdHo Permalink 3:31 PM – 23 Dec 2019
@Marwa_Laham And the good news is we have an Association of Small depositors ( All of us who have been venting about banks). Check it out and share it and RT it please. #كرمال_كلنا_نعيد https://forms.gle/FvZJoHLUSceiK2hC7 #لبنان_ينتفض #لبنان #إليسا ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/kiIFeB2FyY”> pic.twitter.com/kiIFeB2FyY Permalink 9:13 AM – 23 Dec 2019
@nntaleb M5 is launched. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1209153609432211457 Permalink 8:54 AM – 23 Dec 2019
@nntaleb To clarify & answer comments: 1) Correlation is a measure for linear relationships, but it is nonlinear in its interpretation (and non additive). 2) A simple example of why correlation doesn’t work under nonlinearity, and why MI always works. pic.twitter.com/Rv3wXpOSJT Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Dec 2019
@nntaleb SITG https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1208831048026509312 Permalink 6:31 AM – 23 Dec 2019
@MaxAbrahms Reuters says about 1,500 people were killed during the November demonstrations in #Iran based on info gathered from security forces, morgues, hospitals and coroners’ offices. This estimate is much higher than previous estimates. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-protests-specialreport-idUSKBN1YR0QR Permalink 4:39 AM – 23 Dec 2019
@nntaleb The other effect of PRINCIPIA POLITICA: Article 3 “Public institutions must have an expiration date.” A Russian “UNIVERSITY 2035” was created, aiming to dissolve in 2035. Met them in Kazan. Focus:digital skills Joint by Novosibirsk State U,Tomsk State, FarEast Federal U pic.twitter.com/hCYKjN7fzg Permalink 4:20 AM – 23 Dec 2019
@nntaleb This came verbatim from PRINCIPIA POLITICA. https://twitter.com/RustedOak/status/1105133928703295488 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cqS0v4nOTJ”> pic.twitter.com/cqS0v4nOTJ Permalink 3:53 AM – 23 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Footnote 2: Blocked more than 3000 people on Twitter, but picked up > 100,000 new followers during 2019. Permalink 3:07 AM – 23 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Footnote 1: Since it became fashionable to show such a thing, here is a list of prescription drugs I took in 2019. pic.twitter.com/4Ud0Mc6ddx Permalink 2:51 AM – 23 Dec 2019
@nntaleb We are introducing simple transformations to evaluate genetic distances and homozygocity. pic.twitter.com/pqZCmqR7fc Permalink 2:44 AM – 23 Dec 2019
@nntaleb A severe problem with genetic/IQ studies: correlation is highly nonlinear: a correlation of 3/4 is much, much closer to 0 than to 1. Which shows why the overly used “heritability index” is nonsense. I wonder why these IQ idiots didn’t realize it before. Psychology =astrology pic.twitter.com/ODu1U3knI4 Permalink 2:33 AM – 23 Dec 2019
@nntalebbot “The traits I respect are erudition and the courage to stand up when half-men are afraid for their reputation. Any idiot can be intelligent.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 22 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Peterson, charisma? Peterson, like most psycholophasters, gives the impression of a dithering hypochondriac with an insomnia problem, having serious trouble getting his BS in order, & who regularly implores with endless speeches his girlfriends/partners to not dump him . https://twitter.com/lyleleander/status/1208865976952877057 Permalink 2:11 PM – 22 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Thanks to the works of @Safaitic and @PhDniX we can confirm that whatever it is a dialect OF, and whatever category you may wish to classify it in, Levantine is not a dialect OF Fus7a (Classical Arabic). It is a PARALLEL language to Fus7a. https://twitter.com/the_levantist/status/1208858506713075713 Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Dec 2019
@nntaleb “Organized NYC deadlifting antiBS probabilists squad” (Former student and RWRI instructor) https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1208776824093847553 Permalink 8:06 AM – 22 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Pschologists classifying “IQ deniers” as a pathology. I am a “psychology denier”, that is “bullshit denier”. https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/950771974632067073 Permalink 7:21 AM – 22 Dec 2019
@nntaleb 19- Finally, I did not compromise once in 2019. Happy Holidays for all. Permalink 3:28 PM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb 17- Lost (some) money short HLF. But stayed long Gold, etc. 18- Found some severe & disturbing logical errors in PRINCIPIA POLITICA (which I incidentally started in 2019). Fixed quietly, so far. Permalink 3:24 PM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb 14-Found great space for #RWRI across the sidewalk where a famous mafia don was wacked (Sparks Steakhouse), w/one of his family members now part of the #RWRI club. Feels safe. 15-Ate no seed oil 16-Feel plenty of gratitude towards my friends, esp. those who corrected errors Permalink 3:16 PM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb 11-Blocked >3000 people on Twitter, using highly *Bayesian* tricks. 12-Ate large meals with the BS Busting Brigade connected to #RWRI, made new friends. 13-Had charlatans s.a. Sam Harris, Charles Murray, etc. publicly complaining about me. Permalink 2:57 PM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb 8-Was subjected to 6 smear campaigns from 6 separate sources, including #Lebanon bankers w/smear video from PR firm. No effect. I need more enemies in 2020, to confuse them. 9-Lost 7 lbs but year isn’t over. 10-Tried & failed to learn Hindi. Everyone speaks English. Permalink 2:41 PM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb 4- Published 6 papers (single auth), wrote 10 in total, 1 in epistemology 5- Increased the pushpress by 25lbs in spite of injury 6- Lectshured (& ate) in Serbia, Estonia, & Tatarstan 7- Went on #Lebanon TV after 10y to expose #RiadPonzi, introduced Ponzi term. Riad was upset Permalink 2:31 PM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb 2019, Personal Review 1-Managed to Yuugely upset monocultures: both anti-Iran & pro-Iran shills; both pro-Trump & anti-Trump; both the “left” & the Neo-nazis/Quillette/eugenists. 2-Busted IQ as a fraud,on stat/math grounds. 3-Finished Stat Cons Fat Tails, Tech Incerto vol 1 Permalink 2:18 PM – 21 Dec 2019
@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. Cramming several #RWRI -insights into one comic strip => scalability – static vs dynamic – business school BS. @nntaleb Free stuff here https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE Support me here https://buff.ly/32k8OVz ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mvpfoiQvLv”> pic.twitter.com/mvpfoiQvLv Permalink 9:44 AM – 21 Dec 2019
@DennisHXu “You do not create dynamic equality just by raising the level of those at the bottom, but rather by making the rich rotate.” https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 @nntaleb’s article on inequality is the most important and least well understood idea of the present socio-economic discourse. Permalink 9:04 AM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Friends, looks like I need to give up the Medieval style with boxes (left) in favor of the right version as it becomes rapidly unwieldy. Is there a serious loss of aesthetics? pic.twitter.com/SgGVAzxDtU Permalink 4:51 AM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb An infallible marker of crummy intellect is when someone cherry picks from authors long dead for retrospective bigoteering. @RichardDawkins is my model of the BS vendor. https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1208353116367794177 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UrjhDnF9Xw”> pic.twitter.com/UrjhDnF9Xw Permalink 4:46 AM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Better interword spacing pic.twitter.com/R2byiWhKmn Permalink 3:34 AM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Meanwhile the Technical Incerto, Vol 1: hard to get the #lindy 2-column aesthetics with a 6 by 9 book, which requires 8½ by 11. Equations and graphs make it difficult to flow properly. pic.twitter.com/Hotlu4x371 Permalink 2:19 AM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb Colored text is #Lindy. Precedes printing. Everything needs rich aesthetics. I am following the model in PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://twitter.com/BLMedieval/status/1208311142784782336 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0OVcBR8kRG”> pic.twitter.com/0OVcBR8kRG Permalink 1:26 AM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb 4) I exposed @snarwani for unconditional support for the Iranian regime. This imbecile @Doranimated is worse; doesn’t get a Leb PM needs approval by ALL factions (like Hariri). Think tank pple have no academic freedom (owned by funders); almost all are subpar failed academics. Permalink 1:05 AM – 21 Dec 2019
@nntaleb 3) And the fellow has the logical abilities of a goldfish in contaminated water. Geopolitics shills are unemployable losers incapable of reasoning outside the script: if it is not A, then it is B, to counter other shills saying if not B then A. #Localism https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1208131896556707840?s=20 Permalink 1:59 PM – 20 Dec 2019
@nntaleb The best representation of Fat Tony, via Fat Tony Salerno in The Irishman. pic.twitter.com/EvsuonfGha Permalink 1:51 PM – 20 Dec 2019