GMOs, Brexit, Brussels Elite, ANTIFRAGILE, Overregulation, Syria, NonStable Power Laws, Kasperov, Life Expectancy, YouGov, IYI | Twitter

@nntaleb The average signatory’s Nobel y: 1997. Av. age at prize:~62. These are in their 80s, many 30-50y behind cutting edge   Permalink 3:33 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@food_democracy Breaking Let Freedom Ring! Vermont’s 1st in the Nation GMO Labeling bill has just gone into effect! Thanks Vermont! Permalink 9:04 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Syrian rebels call themselves Mujaheddin. Stop the BS, call them by what they are. And learn Arabic.   Permalink 2:55 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Not always. Only if economist/journo AND BS vendor like @Noahpinion   Permalink 1:20 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@brunoboni Nero di seppia con bottarga #nerodiseppia Permalink 11:28 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 107 Nobel winners ag Golden Rice, aged pple who did their work before complexity theory… Permalink 11:02 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb It was not Elinor Ostrom who said “give us our fishing waters back”;it was Nigel Farrage. Time for bureaucrats to learn complexity/localism Permalink 10:20 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Philip as the UberStatistician & a fierless leader you should join us in an expanded project on GMOs   @philipbstark Permalink 9:42 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I will never discuss a friend in public no matter the situation. Only in private. Even with ex- friends @philipbstark Permalink 8:43 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The EU, something built 1950s-style, without understanding of complex systems.   Permalink 6:45 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Find the inconsistency, or how “average” probability isn’t a robust construct. [Quiz abt empty suit @JustinWolfers] Permalink 6:09 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Noboby noticed: only “Nobel” of 107 who “knows” abt risk is Robert Merton who blew up w/ LTCM “1 in trillion” risk.   Permalink 6:01 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Announcement: RWRI-3 Real World Risk fall workshop date has been changed to Oct 3-7 [We found great quarters in NYC]   Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb Jensen’s inequality and sensitivity to variance in plants   Permalink 5:05 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Thought they were desperate to add a nobel in literature but…they added Robert Merton, Mr LTCM. Guaranteed Blowup!   Permalink 4:53 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Donald Trump via trial and error looking for what people want. Know your customer rule.   Permalink 2:11 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Voters tired of an elite that can’t find coconuts on Coconut Island   Permalink 2:06 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Indeed: variance helps them! @Chris_arnade Permalink 2:02 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Alternative Test: what’s is the probability that @JustinWolfers a representayive member of the IYI class deadlifts? Permalink 8:39 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The only empirical association between Risk/Safety & Nobel Prize is LTCM. Try again, hire a more informed PR firm.   Permalink 7:34 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Turned out Pinker’s words & references do not match. Asking him for backup, not words. 800 page thesis … no Permalink 7:11 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Impressive: saw that Silver Rule (#Skininthegame) ⇔decision-making under incompleteness. He is MD &Deadlifts>600lbs!   Permalink 5:53 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Nassim Taleb Slams The World’s “Intellectual-Yet-Idiot” Class | Zero Hedge   Permalink 5:39 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 3 millennia of *wisdom=action under incomplete information* from King Solomon to Popper to Simon undid by that idiot   Permalink 4:57 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finally completed my ANTIFRAGILE application to Medicine.   Permalink 4:52 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Phil forgot 1 Nobel prize for literature.   Permalink 4:51 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@hamlet911 If you can piss off econs, IYIs, academia and most of the twitterverse – all at the same time, you are pretty much right. Kudos @nntaleb Permalink 6:37 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb “If a tractor used on a farm has a windshield, its wipers must have a speed of 25 cycles per minute.” Brussels… Permalink 6:49 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The envious will perceive you as always arrogant.   Permalink 6:34 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Overregulation by EU:length of a banana, volume per toilet flush, speed of agricultural tractor’s windshield wipers   Permalink 6:28 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb It takes 16 times longer to incorporate and run a bizness in Milan than Londra @Twitpiero Permalink 2:21 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Move a German to Paris or a French person to Frkfrt. No way. Both would move to LDN.   Permalink 1:34 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Another, #NonfakeRationalia, w/no BS vendors like Tyson: based on orthodox statistics & presence-absence of evidence   Permalink 1:18 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb From my experience, London is attractive for banks as it has labor laws similar to US/pool of talent. Paris and Frankfurt tried & failed. Permalink 1:14 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Economist @JustinWolfers strikes me as the type w/no math, no erudition & no skin-in-the game. Does he deadlift? Permalink 12:11 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@mikeharrisNY @nntaleb @AdroitInvestor @econbuttonwood Chart updated. Woa.#brexit looks like a non-event. Thanks Permalink 10:25 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb #skininthegame: Unless one has P/L it is hard to assess the “significance” of a move. Journos/Tawkers can’t get it!   Permalink 10:19 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb GBP/USD 1year deviation is within significance band: nothing reflects such “gravity” of an event. Kapish? @AdroitInvestor @econbuttonwood Permalink 10:13 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb UK stocks up from #Brexit vote. Ignore any word written by a journo except for street crime Permalink 9:53 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb From reading his work, Mr Wolfers has *some* challenges with probability theory. More, later. @jimmyybill @JustinWolfers Permalink 7:35 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb A more advanced class is based on my book SILENT RISK and the papers here   Permalink 6:58 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb BTW this is my syllabus for the introductory class (7 lectures)   Permalink 6:53 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb My first lecture: this is the clueless way to look at data. Histograms don’t give information for fattails.   Permalink 6:37 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb No, the Pound move was not a Black Swan, & not a statistical Permalink 6:17 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Simplicity and skin in the game: Those who tawk propose more complicated models than those who do.   Permalink 2:20 PM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Minority rule in action   Permalink 2:06 PM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb European Union, definition: Something designed by someone who doesn’t understand complex systems. Permalink 9:10 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@GMWatch URGENT: Act Now to Save #GMO Labeling, Before It’s Too Late! Permalink 8:59 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Does not deadlift. (@MDiPaolaMD)   Permalink 8:55 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@BogeJan @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam Balkanisation is failed centralization. Helvetization is successful decentralization Permalink 7:07 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People say “Balkanization”, why not”Helvetization”? @yaneerbaryam has ideas for Syria   Permalink 6:59 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Stop bloodshe! Only solution for Syria is partition. Fences make better neighbors. Or strong decentralization.   Permalink 6:22 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb An illustration of the ludic fallacy:   (People who derive reputation/authority from games…) Permalink 6:11 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Before theorizing abt Assad, have skin in the game & live w/rebels. Those you support would behead you @Kasparov63   Permalink 5:51 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I have to *write* the paper! @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 3:48 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Grandmaster Marco Avellaneda @MAvellaneda55 is giving a flash talk in 15 min. He was last seen in Mexico. Permalink 3:05 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@KeaneBhatt Protesters of US ‘inaction’ in Syria should re-read two paragraphs, written in present-tense Permalink 12:44 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I have seen the two @silva and @stevehiltonx tease one another: Interesting pair.   Permalink 2:03 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb New Version of today’s flash talk: Behavior of Sums of NonStable Power Laws. Convergence < Sqrt[log(log(n)))   Permalink 11:32 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You should go live in Lybia when making comments like these. I live 20 m from Syria & don’t need Black-Swan blind neocons BS @Kasparov63 Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Even more bullshit. In real life, as in chess, a move has consequence and you study consequences before moving. Kapish? @Kasparov63 Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You are spouting neocon Bullshit, theorizing from afar. I was not happy with Gadafi/Saddam, but I am less happy with AlQaeda @Kasparov63 Permalink 8:03 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You want to turn Syria (hence Lebanon) into Iraq/Lybia just to spite Putin? Kill minorities for “geopolitical” BS?   Permalink 7:48 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Presenting a flash talk tonite: Behavior of Sum of NonStable Power Laws   My paper:   Permalink 6:23 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@vtrighttoknow Thank you @SenSanders. We need more leaders like you!   Permalink 6:26 PM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy. Permalink 10:57 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@GadSaad There you go. NNT forgot to mention that the Leave voters will all “xenophobic, hateful, illiterate racists.”   Permalink 10:20 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb When people vote the way of the IYI elite, it is “democracy”. Otherwise it is misguided, irrational, swayed by populism & lack of education. Permalink 10:18 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb These imbeciles pathologizing people who did not vote the way the IYI (Intellectual-Yet-Idiots) elite wants them to.   Permalink 9:28 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finance based medicine   Permalink 3:33 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The IYI class: Intellectual-Yet-Idiot Doesn’t deadlift & is scared that #Brexit started a revolution by the Permalink 6:35 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Intellectual Yet Idiot; Semierudite Bureaucrat;Normative;Pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand.   Permalink 5:46 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 4 y ago, I resolved to do math >90m/day. I stuck to it, diligently, except for Jun 24, 2016 w/news of stage 1 of anti-IYI revolution #Brexit Permalink 5:37 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@lukasnaugle “Friendship that ends was never one; there was at least one sucker in it.” Permalink 5:28 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb To understand conditional life expect, see Social Security Admin: total expect increases with age. #rigorisneeded   Permalink 5:09 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Also YouGov’s numbers about the youth mean turnout bias: the main info is youth don’t care.   Permalink 9:52 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Where the term “Intellectual Yet Imbecile” is born to describe a journo-bureaucrat – read a lot but not enough.   Permalink 9:35 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In Antifragile: problem of some IYT intellectual-yet-imbecile in Brussels trying to make measures”rational” Permalink 9:04 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@republicofmath My take on @nntaleb: just because we have skewed data doesn’t mean we should engage in skewed Permalink 8:34 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Math: E[X|X>K2] >=E[X|X>K1] for all K2>K1 @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 8:18 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Under ANY unimodal distribution, life expectancy increases BY MORE than 1 year for every surviving year. @MAvellaneda55 @EloyGamaS Permalink 8:13 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb If uncond. life expectancy is 80 & you are already 80, your life expectancy is ~+9 y. If you are 100, it is ~+2y @MAvellaneda55 @EloyGamaS Permalink 8:11 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Life expectancy (remaining years to live) increases with age. @EloyGamaS @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 8:05 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 simply if your life expectancy is 89 and you are 95, they thing you have -7 years to go! YouGov is ridiculously incompetent. Permalink 8:04 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb BSduJour: YouGov is incompetent in polling & missed Brexit by 6 pts; here:confused life expectancy w/conditional exp   Permalink 8:03 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Antikirilganlik! Güzel bir sürpriz Türkçe bulmak için. Ve güzel bir yol Türkçe kelimeleri öğrenmek iç Permalink 5:54 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic from #RWRI: have cash in bills on you or in in a stash next to you.   Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I asked: “Who are your natural partners, people from India or those from Poland?” Brexit is giving us an answer.   Permalink 4:54 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People listen to “intellectual class” abt Brexit but for 70 y they’ve been wrong on anything: Stalinism, Maoism, Freudianism,Urban planning Permalink 11:54 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People are brainwashed to think that Levantine derives from Arabic. Some influence, that’s all.   @alielyassir Permalink 11:19 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb At the lunch table #riskmathics in Mexico City, 4/9 persons were of Lebanese origin. Permalink 8:49 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In one word: pollers are incompetent -and those who pay attention even more so. It is a bias-variance problem.   Permalink 8:44 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb It seems impossible for people to talk about markets w/o BS unless one is a trader/investor, with #skininthegame .   Permalink 7:37 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb So the GBP is about were it was in February. Too many people talk about markets … Permalink 7:28 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@SenSanders I am going to do everything I can to defeat this GMO labeling legislation, which preempts Vermont’s law.   Permalink 2:17 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb From 2012; NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: ‘The European Union Is A Horrible, Stupid Project’   Permalink 4:26 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Today, the United States have acquired 4 new shadow states: England, London (sic), Wales, and possibly Scotland. Permalink 4:20 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Brookings needs to be… diminished, purged, and debullshitvendorified @MaxAbrahms Permalink 9:58 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Whatever legal disclaimer: I own gold in some forms. Permalink 9:56 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Gold! In any form. Permalink 9:52 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Brexit results after a lot of Mexican Permalink 8:10 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Voila the problem on airplane solved by the master in higher dimensions!   Permalink 2:42 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@ProbFact “Modernity corresponds to the systematic extraction of humans from their randomness-laden ecology.” — @nntaleb   Permalink 9:45 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb BTW I am long some GBP so I can talk about markets tonite to satistfy #Skininthegame @will_moriarty Permalink 9:36 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Does it include control by Norwegian universities that *during the same period* did not take a cut? #causalityishard   Permalink 9:34 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In Mexico,debate w/Rob Engel & Ed Altman on Brexit effects.There no scheduled volatility, Prices SCORN ideas/cliché Permalink 8:54 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@ScottAdamsSays @AG2Pearl @fireclan55 If you understood business, you’d know counting the failures is a fool’s analysis. I have about 30, and I’m rich. Permalink 6:35 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Also note that the semi-intellectual empty suits tend to engage in entry-level scientism with promotion of GMOs   Permalink 5:12 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You are not getting expert pbm. Grandmother’s jdgmnt doesn’t mean she is a Dr, only how to trust a doctor and for what gravity. @trombosit Permalink 5:04 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Bjorn Lomborg is by any metric a charlatan. The fact that bureaucrats don’t like him doesn’t make him scientific. @NickdeCusa Permalink 4:26 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Reminder: the crowds are now rebelling against empty suits & “intellectuals” Permalink 4:20 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@MAvellaneda55 Made it to Mexico with @nntaleb discussing probability #brexit & #mathematics. On to #riskmathics conference! Permalink 1:21 PM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Yes! If th ~ Uniform[0,Pi], Tan[th]~ Cauchy & if radius from center random, still Cauchy as Sum of Cauchy = Cauchy @asknbid @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Quiz given by @MAvellaneda55. A drunk person throws balls randomly in all directions. What is the proba distrib of the distance betw balls? Permalink 10:25 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Betting odds are demonstrably similar to option implied probabilities, except unhedgeable (no underlying).   Permalink 9:53 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb On plane Prof Marco @MAvellaneda55 agrees with derivations showing betting 1/x has tail.   Permalink 9:42 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@lukasnaugle “If you know, in the morning, what your day looks like with any precision, you are a little bit dead…” Permalink 5:28 PM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Marco my math mentor/th advisor for 22.5 years adjusting probabilities for Dutch Book effect. Neat!   Permalink 5:19 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 In other words Egyptian scribes had been using Semitic languages, incl Aramaic as lingua franca for 2000 years before the Arab invasion. Permalink 4:46 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du jour: Egyptian use of Semitic lang. predates the Achaemenid inv, The Amarna letters were in Akkadian.( Aramaic in Egypt dialect.) Permalink 4:45 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I can’t see any backing to the idea: Brexit => Economy will tank It’s by the same economists who wouldn’t find sand in Saudi Arabia. Permalink 2:24 PM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Where I explain that “large” projects rarely start as “large” projects, but fractally grown   Permalink 5:23 AM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Voila! Organic funding is the way: VCs are about cosmetic businesses to sell to the greater fool.   Permalink 5:03 AM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb A general question. Is is true that tears in rotator cuff “never” fully self repair? Lit is not clear on that; @cdipaola62 @DataScienceDork Permalink 3:13 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@StopponiMario @nntaleb in Italy the change is happening bottom-up as you said, cities independent from central gov as Permalink 2:53 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb For comments, my first scientific article in Medicine; on Convex responses and Antifragility. Almost done.   Permalink 1:21 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Birth of superstate: Frederick Forsyth on how UNELECTED Brussels bureaucrats SEIZED power   Permalink 1:16 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb No, I do not lecture in Saudi Arabia, & those lecturing there are Permalink 5:20 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb It is easy to find out the Monsanto shills: people who defend BOTH glyphosate and GMOs & attack glysphokeptics.   Permalink 4:47 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Read the NYTimes after long time (jetlag): can detect that newsmedia are afraid of their readers. When I write I don’t care abt readers. Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Byzantine mass in a small church in my ancestral village: Greco-Arabic Permalink 2:59 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Our paper on violence translated for nonstatisticians   @QuarrelAU Permalink 8:25 AM – 19 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The Nobel Symposium: 3 full days. We stopped discussing Pinker’s thesis as dismissed after 1st Permalink 8:06 AM – 19 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic root for Levantine du jour: Shl7 شلح comes from SHLH: undress, now fleece (-> Tshli7, Shla7 tyebak…) Permalink 3:05 AM – 19 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Trying to explain the Mediterranean temperament to Slavs: Meds know how to have fun without necessarily getting drunk. Permalink 11:33 AM – 18 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In their private lives, some people seek union, others seek frequent intersection. Permalink 4:54 AM – 18 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Here it is   Permalink 2:28 AM – 18 Jun 2016

@nntaleb .@PeterCorless @EHSANI22 We have evidence that many of these civilians were killed by Islamists, pictures financed by Saudi PR firms. Permalink 8:18 AM – 17 Jun 2016

@EHSANI22 When you read think tankers arguing for removing Assad by force or bombing syria, ask them who funds their operations and salaries. Permalink 7:33 AM – 17 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The only way one can measure intertemporal inequality is within SAME cohort. Brookings ignorant BSvendors.   Permalink 9:23 AM – 16 Jun 2016

@nntaleb History is periods of peace punctuated by war rather than periods of war puctuated by peace. (Bergen Symposium) Permalink 5:58 AM – 16 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Wrong! P of .05 values don’t work…   Permalink 5:22 AM – 16 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Western Norway: mountainous, craggy, pristine, like Switzerland without the Swiss. Presenting paper on Permalink 6:23 PM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Trump doesn’t put his name on steaks for the money, rather for the ego. @AdamB1438 @John_Hempton @realmarkcuban Permalink 7:17 AM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Area for the exception. Thrilling to visualize inequalities in higher dimensions. @alxpr1c3 Permalink 7:16 AM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Talking class paternalists don’t get it: Only way to hurt Trump is to show him crying while reading Anna Karenina   Permalink 5:06 AM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Comments like these by the “intellectual class” will get TheDonaldo elected.   Permalink 5:27 PM – 14 Jun 2016

@nntaleb How many years of consecutive “peace” in a random Poisson process? Methodology. Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finalmente, 4 years after antifragile, the discourse is improving!   Permalink 12:11 PM – 14 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Most humans either harm or are harmed by words. The rest is a small minority. Permalink 12:05 PM – 14 Jun 2016

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