Tag Archives: Monsanto

REPLICATION CRISIS, Gabish, Monsanto, Donaldo, Saudi Barbaria, slaves, Nudge, trees, waiters | Twitter

@nntaleb Coincidentally… What he means by “Greek” literature is … things for intellectuals. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1034835323384197120 Permalink 3:10 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 4) People don’t realize the more severe problem is not absence of replication, rather the reduction of EFFECT for those that replicated. If you lower effect by ½, the odds of being observed in REAL LIFE decreases nonlinearly. From 2 sigmas to 1 sigma, down by 86%. Permalink 12:50 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@broketrout Just seeing this book title gave me nightmares.. pic.twitter.com/sNuLpVem2Q Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Academics think in very low-resolution digital while humans see things in analog. Permalink 12:18 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@originalgibby Replication of findings in @sciencemagazine and @nature slightly better than a coin flip. Once again @nntaleb is correct. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/08/27/researchers-replicate-just-13-of-21-social-science-experiments-published-in-top-journals/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.bb6f15ba4889 Permalink 11:32 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) The REPLICATION CRISIS a VINDICATION for citizens SICK & TIRED of the Harvards w/a sense of entitlement treating practitioners as immature pple lost without their “science” when it is STATISTICALLY shown Harvards are no better than Ms Bré, fortune teller. pic.twitter.com/TJAZ41AAbT Permalink 8:18 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) 2 ½ years ago I proved MATHEMATICALLY p-values need to be lowered by at least 1 order of magnitude. Now @BrianNosek et al, 75 authors mysteriously realize that p-values need to be lowered by…. 1 order of magnitude. List includes of course a bunch of Harvards I insulted. pic.twitter.com/xK2rVp8AL6 Permalink 7:32 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) We now have to face the fact that what is called “social science” and “evidence based” is scientifically shown to be equivalent to “bullshit vending”. Except less elegant, of course. Which brings us back to ancestral heuristics, #Lindy, #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1034130885711417345 Permalink 7:21 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@ggreenwald 1/ In the wake of the @NewYorker profile, several people recommended I look at the ugly 2003 hit piece that magazine did on Chomsky (on the even of the Iraq War) & 2008 attack on Naomi Klein after “Shock Doctrine.” It is striking how they use the same expel-from-mainstream script pic.twitter.com/rr1BKBa5JJ Permalink 5:55 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What happens to post-Monsanto shills? Predictably, they will do #shameless propaganda elsewhere. “Glyphosate Mark” @mark_lynas seems to have reconverted to promotion of… AlQaeda, helping propagandist @Charles_Lister do #pedophrasty w/fake pictures of dead children in Syria. Permalink 5:52 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I have been blocking nitpickers on “Gabish”. “Gabish” is to “Capisce” what “Gabagool” is to “Capicola”, what “Brozhut” is to “Prosciuto”, what “Avangool” is to [YOU FIGURE IT OUT]… Gabish? Permalink 5:14 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Free speech is something unconditional BY DEFINITION, not something reserved to what your ears enjoy hearing. Gabish? Permalink 7:17 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get what a utility means. Permalink 6:58 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If someone told me 10 years ago that 1) The White House would be fighting CENSORSHIP by the media (not the other way around, while 2) The media accuses the White House of fascism, I would have called an ambulance. https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/protect-free-speech-digital-public-square-0 Permalink 6:13 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The label “left” is a better disguise for the war machine/weapon makers. Hence the militaristic pseudo-left sills … https://twitter.com/brankomilan/status/1034296370155466753 Permalink 2:17 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Iosif @iosif_lazaridis is part of a group that is revolutionizing history/archeology, putting them on FIRM scientific grounds, using potent statistics/combinatorics. Yes, indeed we can tell population migrations with a 10^-10 error rate. Thank you, Iosif & ignore journos. https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1034509740729098242 Permalink 12:11 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) The Propaganda Times (formerly kn0wn as NYT) article misses that those who can’t do can’t do for a reason, an epistemological reason: they often know the wrong things. So we make pple who know the wrong things teach the wrong things for the sake of “pedagogy”. This is fraud. Permalink 11:42 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Traditionally those “communicators” good at explaining are the charlatans, BS Vendors… https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52 Permalink 10:19 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) The NYT vs #SkinInTheGame. It is very dangerous to favor those good at explaining but not understanding over people good at understanding but not explaining. pic.twitter.com/k6IIt6Btvp Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I can vouch from Skin in THAT Game. https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/status/1034476469483970561 Permalink 9:25 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nonvegetarian nongymmachines nonmillennial nonjournalists nonwhitecollarsalarymen nonactors weightlifters have wide waists. Gabish? #Lindy pic.twitter.com/bqvRFXYBO3 Permalink 7:34 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Someone needs to explain to the illustrator of @black_swan_man that nonvegetarian non-teenage non-gym-machines weightlifters have wide waists. (next tweet) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1034193426126909441 Permalink 7:30 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@LorenzoWVilla @nntaleb will like this: Eugenio Montale’s via negativa. https://twitter.com/FPanunzi/status/1034436182271246336 Permalink 6:49 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Actually most of it was done on Dec 31, 1999, about the best books of the 20th C. Things change… Permalink 6:44 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Either Jaffer needs an alibi to be in NY or we are doing something right @financequant https://twitter.com/jaffer22915438/status/1034163318511071233 Permalink 4:05 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This was lifted from comments I made 10 years ago about 20th C novels. Of course the real thing (Dostoyevski) will be missing… Permalink 3:30 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Favorite Literature Books https://www.nuggetsofthought.com/2018/08/22/taleb-literature-books Permalink 2:53 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid NOT ONLY CAUSALITIES BUT ALSO ASSOCIATIONS ARE HARD IN SOCIAL SCIENCES Ioannidis author of “Why Most Published Research Finding (in medicine) Are False” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16060722 just published a paper https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2698337 showing that the nutritional field need radical reform. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qVnSHTEfrM”> pic.twitter.com/qVnSHTEfrM Permalink 7:49 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) To simplify, this is the #FooledbyRandomness effect: @paulkrugman is pontificating from NOISE, not signal, and the first thing one should teach students is to learn to make a difference between noise and signal. Permalink 5:32 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb From work/discussion with @financequant: BTC doesn’t even have a variance, steep power law. pic.twitter.com/jdofe7ERRJ Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Statistically flawed statement: no such claims can be made under high variance power law. #SkinintheGame: if @paulkrugman had his own $ at risk, he would have been blowup on bitcoin up >10^4% & eliminated from the ecology… or eliminated from the ecology before even bitcoin… https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1033393663450259459 Permalink 5:09 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Wars… https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1033735711441092608 Permalink 3:07 PM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 5) What inspired the Greek/Roman metaphor is the incident when Cato expelled Greek philosophers & rhetors from Rome. Cato was fiercely anti-BS… (from Fooled by Randomness) pic.twitter.com/lfB2br1XgO Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 4) Discussion of “Roman” vs “Greek” in #Antifragile based on optionality, which is of course NOT LITERAL & unconditional but a general metaphor: In general, Romans were conscious of 2nd order effects all across, despised theory, tawkers, & vapid philosophising. pic.twitter.com/56sO6o7Nwd Permalink 5:59 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn’t: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times …causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today. #Antifragile: how academics lie abt role of theory: they WRITE history. pic.twitter.com/ZedV2lneL8 Permalink 5:47 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1)PSYCHO-BS In #Antifragile: I was convinced that the theory that money does *not* bring happiness (beyond a level) was bogus in spite of the “evidence”: psychologists of happiness like $$ & Lindy effect. Turned out that research was psycho-BS, doesn’t replicate #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/84kvvoMrtS Permalink 5:33 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@DanielLMcAdams The “antiwar” opposition to the war machine. And no one will admit that we are a one-party state… https://twitter.com/timand2037/status/1033565189814112256 Permalink 9:07 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb BTW, Byzantines were diehard Roman. Greek was just a language. Permalink 2:49 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The real difference in politics isn’t the “right” vs “left” gradation but rather “Greek” vs “Roman”. + Greek = puts theory above practice + Roman= puts practice above theory Be Roman. Now. Permalink 2:47 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Using factorials (simpler) pic.twitter.com/fj2r70bPCH Permalink 11:12 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Steps on how Stirling was used for solution pic.twitter.com/adIh0e8HP3 Permalink 10:21 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb OK, Saturday workout in remembrance of @CutTheKnotMath but not sure Maestro was crazy about gamma functions. cc: @SvetlanaBogom13 pic.twitter.com/mgZvKpHhgS Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb In the absence of @CutTheKnotMath, a Saturday morning workout he would have liked (from Dan Sitaru). pic.twitter.com/dSVv2jH6V5 Permalink 5:32 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/MWD0SCAJME Permalink 5:02 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb εἶπεν δέ Ἀμὴν λέγω ὑμῖν ὅτι οὐδεὶς προφήτης δεκτός ἐστιν ἐν τῇ πατρίδι αὐτοῦ. https://twitter.com/faleflix/status/1033086428442488833 Permalink 4:38 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Thanks @RonPaul. You are a real world superhero. In the Black Swan Man comic, what should your super powers be? https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1033074963568357376 Permalink 1:02 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Black Swan man fighting central banksters and the enemies of Satoshi. …but can someone explain to the cartoonist weightlifters have wider waists? https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1033004379962580992 Permalink 8:09 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb New Title: The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails becomes Real-World Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails pic.twitter.com/eHe6svaha2 Permalink 7:00 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@ban_kanj No, this isn’t the Amalfi coast.. it’s Southern Lebanon #Naquoura #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/7XqDXMdT9k Permalink 6:41 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Monsanto has commonalities w/Theranos & Madoff, court papers show Made claims from SAFETY studies they NEVER did Lobbied, bullied regulators by infiltrating the system Owned “science” journalists & “rational” crowd Smear campaigns ag scientists (yours truly), ruining careers https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1032633507003158528 Permalink 6:19 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The good news: Forbes & Project Syndicate fired Monsanto shill @henryimiller & removed all past articles. But I cannot believe some journos like Tamar Haspel known to be colluding with Monsanto are still writing in newspapers like @washingtonpost https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1032962224820834306 Permalink 6:09 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@DanielLMcAdams How sick that Obama decided to let crazed, head-chopping jihadists loose on these good Christian people. And how sad that Trump is too blind to see what’s really going on in Syria. There will be hell to pay for the murder of these innocents. Literally. https://twitter.com/iraqschristians/status/1032746441104674817 Permalink 6:15 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@MccluskyMark People seem to get it, even if their spelling is a little phunny. pic.twitter.com/2LGriWAfOK Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@restoration_x Taleb has discussed and developed Pareto a great deal. Perhaps it is no coincidence that they even ook remarkably similar. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964450061164965888?s=19 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/isefixKgyQ”> pic.twitter.com/isefixKgyQ Permalink 1:11 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I’d rather live in a society where people complain about lawyers than one in which they don’t. https://twitter.com/societalruin/status/1032638737073598464 Permalink 7:52 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) For instance Monsanto’s Eric Sachs @ericsachsPhD who was behind the smear campaign against us & others (collusion with fake journo @keithkloor & Co), retired after the merger. But I will make sure he & others pay some stiff penalty at some point in the rest of their lives. Permalink 7:48 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) From what I understand about mergers, former Monsanto executives can be easily sued by Bayer for stuff they did not disclose or for past malpractice. And I am certain Bayer wasn’t aware of the stuff revealed by court papers. Permalink 7:39 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The beginning of the end… https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/1032632886627721216 Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Enfin, la France… https://journal.lepoint.fr/comment-vous-n-avez-pas-encore-lu-taleb-2244655 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/xajDMhBge2″> pic.twitter.com/xajDMhBge2 Permalink 5:58 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Solution pic.twitter.com/UpJQs9Jbw1 Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb That was quick. The idea of #skininthegame made it to Homeland Security… https://twitter.com/CodeDotGov/status/1025158440522534912 Permalink 5:13 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@maalaukong I still can’t believe I had the gut to train barbell when no doctors and people around me would advise me do that. But I read Antifragile -and after lifting for months I am fine now still thank you Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Morning Quiz. From Dan Sitaru/Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/kSk0ceHTxr Permalink 4:45 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Helenus: on the difference between engineering and reverse engineering. History is HARDER than it seems. pic.twitter.com/tmcfnwqtaz Permalink 2:51 PM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) The story of Helenus @MarkAnthonySPQR as an illustration of the difference between forward and backward equation https://twitter.com/MarkAnthonySPQR/status/1032360191449346048 Permalink 2:49 PM – 22 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Really important work on reporting and citation bias effects on treatment for depression. And there is more not included. ht @nilskappelmann @nntaleb https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/psychological-medicine/article/cumulative-effect-of-reporting-and-citation-biases-on-the-apparent-efficacy-of-treatments-the-case-of-depression/71D73CADE32C0D3D996DABEA3FCDBF57#fndtn-information ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/tMOD00CvTZ”> pic.twitter.com/tMOD00CvTZ Permalink 10:54 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Stefan Gasic @NonMeek summarizes my new book The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails (Technical Incerto, Vol 1) https://www.academia.edu/37221402/TECHNICAL_INCERTO_VOL_1_THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/RB7ZwdFPKL”> pic.twitter.com/RB7ZwdFPKL Permalink 8:28 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@NonMeek Bitte schön. Otherwise okay? pic.twitter.com/Z0FKDX8I3s Permalink 8:13 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) Something tactical that Netanyahu is starting to get but Donaldo (& predecessors) never figured out: if you HELP the population w/something practical, makes it more favorable to you. Netanyahu is offering Iranians solutions for their water problems… https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac Permalink 5:54 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb As a matter of fact sanctions in Iran (by removing market forces) benefit the rent-seeking circles close to the regime, and hurt those they purport to save from said regime… Something about the lack of mental clarity on the part of bureaucrats. Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Maybe… but one thing for sure; @mikeduncan has shown solid evidence of shoddy & unreliable intellectual behavior. And history requires intellectual integrity. https://twitter.com/mikeduncan/status/1031821137003601920 Permalink 5:27 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Donaldo, sanctions have worked only ONCE in history: S. Africa (even then, unsure). They punish the weak in populations: Iraq, Syria, Lybia, Iran … those you yourself identify as victims of regimes. They thwart commerce that brings peace. Highly unrigorous DC IYI thinking. https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1032235948946411523 Permalink 5:15 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Eh, ma3ak 7a22: https://youtu.be/5ejHYQ4ihgI Permalink 4:14 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Reminds me of a certain book… https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1031959292683804673 Permalink 1:43 PM – 21 Aug 2018

@InsperLiber A partir da análise da obra de Nassim Taleb, Ariel Bozza aborda o delicado problema das minorias intolerantes. Link na bio! #taleb #economia #política #filosofia #ensaio #minorityrule #eleicoes2018 #religião #liberdade #liderança pic.twitter.com/K4UBXd08D6 Permalink 8:51 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Now the news is that they may not have beheaded her “YET”. No difference. Permalink 8:13 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@Mat_Heart “Ceterum censeo saudi barbariam esse delendam.” Talebus Permalink 7:26 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Interesting how Saudi shills think they can make you can believe one furthers US security interests by beheading Shiite women who complain abt gov. treatment. From experience w/Monsanto & Saudi Barbatian shills, e.g. @dietwaldclaus: it’s the last resort job for the total loser. pic.twitter.com/A72dJHXefl Permalink 7:07 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria, not Saudi Arabia. Delenda Saudi Barbaria. https://twitter.com/financequant/status/1031894836784316420 Permalink 6:53 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The style… pic.twitter.com/O08Fba1m8l Permalink 4:18 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I just bought San-Antonio, tome 8 : Bravo, docteur Béru ! ; Viva Bertaga ! ; Un éléphant ça trompe ; Faut… @AbeBooks https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=22650467109&cm_ven=Twitter&cm_cat=TYShare&cm_pla=link&cm_ite=TYShare Permalink 4:02 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@OZmandia @TuckerGoodrich and @gillespi Have been shouting from the rooftops the dangers of Seed Oils for yonks! Maybe @nntaleb comment will bring it home: https://breaknutrition.com/omega-6-fatty-acids-alternative-hypothesis-diseases-civilization/ SEED OILS ARE A SCAM ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/whTSNtQufd”> pic.twitter.com/whTSNtQufd Permalink 4:05 PM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb It is also BIGOTRY to replace male privilege by the female one. https://twitter.com/CHSommers/status/1031598245024342017 Permalink 12:17 PM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) This plus the arrival of the “J” later in the Bronze age explains why the Levant has a mitocondrial DNA much closer to Northern Europe: Lebanon closer to France than to Cyprus. pic.twitter.com/TseQESh6v8 Permalink 11:51 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Which vindicates the theory that 1) Ashkenazis’ light eyes don’t not come from “Khazars” or as per some other half-baked theory, but from the original population 2) the 20% light eyes found in Lebanon/North Syria don’t come from crusaders, but are largely indigenous https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1031602205869133824 Permalink 11:39 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If and only If the Markov Chain is ergodic. cc:@yaneerbaryam @ole_b_peters https://twitter.com/ProbFact/status/1031606215179157504 Permalink 11:28 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Influent BS vendors lose their influence the minute they close their mouth or put their pen to rest. Just a tiny bit of silence and they are gone. Permalink 10:38 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb But you only get the tail for a function by avoiding sigmoidal transformations https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/976107986736181249 Permalink 8:09 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb My favorite @NonMeek cartoon by far: “The difference between absence of evidence and evidence of absence is at least 50 IQ points” https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1014559700137009152 Permalink 7:34 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Polygenic predictors have a humongous error rate. https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1031188182849732609 Permalink 6:47 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@GuruAnaerobic Add to the category: ‘LIFE CHANGING OPPORTUNITY’ https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1031524764215648256 Permalink 6:27 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The next uncovered scam will be seed oil, particularly corn oil, which has been passing for “healthy” w/o evidence nor time tested uses, nor any direct evidence it is healthier than butter. Instead of high carb/low carb, consider: w/ or w/o seed oil, grains … cc: @Mangan150 Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 500 years, @KenDBerryMD, but good enough. https://twitter.com/KenDBerryMD/status/1031525228021784577 Permalink 6:01 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS Friends, scholarships (by @financequant & myself) are available for the 9th program Oct 22-26, in NY. We have been giving on average 5 women scholarships & 5 general ones. http://www.realworldrisk.com https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/987695856060174336 Permalink 5:54 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is what @spyrosmakrid seems to be telling us: #ML doesn’t get the tails because nobody can get the tails from past data. https://twitter.com/yjoshi/status/1031491335394607104 Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Eisen has been supporting Monsanto & the GMO BS. Worse: Plos-1 withdrew an Op-Ed by @thackerpd under pressure from Monsanto. Permalink 3:58 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Trishank @trishankkarthik summarized the tawk in a series of tweets: just note that I prefaced (par.) “as a scholar I don’t want to a good speaker, good speakers are usually charlatans” https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1030844991470489600 Permalink 3:05 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I mean Corneille Permalink 1:23 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb My lecktchur on #skininthegame: No guts no glory, no risk no victory, adapted from Racine: ” A vaincre sans péril on triomphe sans gloire”, itself adapted from Seneca: Ignominiam iudicat gladiator cum inferiore componi et scit eum sine gloria uinci qui sine periculo uincitur… pic.twitter.com/tyzG8dSoc6 Permalink 1:01 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Two heuristics for nonergodicity @nntaleb @ole_b_peters https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1031216346095386624 Permalink 9:30 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Traditionally, learned pple & erudites have voiced contempt for the half-read or semi-learned, such as journo @JonahNRO, never for the non-read person of action. Semi-learned pple s.a. Goldberg resemble cars with two wheels missing. You are much better off walking. https://twitter.com/JonahNRO/status/1031157357991092224 Permalink 8:32 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Skin in the game in Lebanese proverbs: bil 7ikam l-Lébnéniyyé: + Ma bi7ékkak illa difrak + S2al mjarréb wla tes2al 7akim + Ghaltét l-shater 2alf ghalta (shater hown = “khabir”) + Kill shi rkhis ghalé + Iza ma kébrét ma-zéghrét (nonlinearity) Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Here is @Michael_Spagat, @sapinker’s support, pestering us for data in order to find “flaws”… doesn’t understand the stochasticity of sample correlation, which inspired this talk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&frags=pl%2Cwn Permalink 5:53 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) There is something green about “quant” @Michael_Spagat and this paper (cont) https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1029092945088131072 Permalink 5:51 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Addition https://twitter.com/ionlyshort/status/1031131593748959232 Permalink 4:56 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nice to meet twitter friends in person https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1030878532891815936 Permalink 11:14 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@nntaleb A lot of antiwar people in DC… pic.twitter.com/uzXh7vIvUF Permalink 10:17 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb at #RonPaul! pic.twitter.com/xc1MfQvoxJ Permalink 8:52 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@ggreenwald Almost 100,000 people re-tweeted @JohnBrennan moronically & recklessly accusing Trump of *treason* for his Helsinki press conference, only for him now to casually admit it wasn’t & deny he said it. Brennan is a pathological liar, a torture advocate, a killer & a #Resistance icon: https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1030842945333805056 Permalink 8:49 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@SocratesSophia @nntaleb thanks for publicly resisting Monsanto before anyone mainstream did. Thanks also for resisting over educated close minds with their own academic languagem You’ve exemplified courage and now the tide is turning in your favour. Also, God is important. Thank you!! Permalink 4:26 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@SocratesSophia9 @nntaleb thanks for publicly resisting Monsanto before anyone mainstream did. Thanks also for resisting over educated close minds with their own academic languagem You’ve exemplified courage and now the tide is turning in your favour. Also, God is important. Thank you!! Permalink 4:26 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@nntaleb (I don’t like to see my own books in ky library) Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Unfortunately, in my own house, I can’t display my own books… https://twitter.com/larsgrossmith/status/1030502501089390592 Permalink 10:50 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally! The Black Swan man is about Bitcoin. (still that waist is that of a dance instructor) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1030414802928263168 Permalink 7:52 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Dynamics of Complex Systems pages 131-2: Time histories of stochastic dynamical systems (Surprise: they are equivalent to equilibrium ensembles, but unusual ones). pic.twitter.com/lASoDK0LmO Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Bayer: investors coming out of denial, slowly realizing that GMOs are the scam of the century. pic.twitter.com/z4eQHBGFR6 Permalink 3:47 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid ML METHODS AND FORECASTING Two interesting reports discuss AI/ML and their relevance to real life problems https://www.oreilly.com/ideas/why-we-need-to-think-differently-about-ai?utm_medium=email&utm_source=topic+optin&utm_campaign=awareness&utm_content=20180813+ai+nl&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTXpZME5EWmxOV1UwTURKbSIsInQiOiJ0cnRsZkgrdzBsZk93dkpSXC9ZWXdNendLQVRQQzQzRXp2OEsxbkFBOUZCVnpKdkdGK3h3UUNteTE1aE5OQWdxcEJqUVJ1c3MzeUV1SHFzM3ZxOEVPM21VOG5RRFlrcXNTZzdDSTNJVytYcUFcL2c0YXVVVStnK1pSZGtydGxNdzlvIn0%3D https://www.stateof.ai/ These reports confirm our papers about the poor performance of ML models http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018300785 Permalink 1:03 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb While Monsanto can lobby in DC, bully, soft-bribe & manipulate regulators, and intimidate & smears scientists (like yours truly), Bayer as a foreign-owned corporation can’t easily do so. Bayer lost ~20% since the Monsanto trial (another 4% today). pic.twitter.com/JqLLX7L8Gg Permalink 12:47 PM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If, in some wealthy communities, you run into people who look like cousins, it is more probable that they use the same plastic surgeon. Permalink 10:36 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Some mathematics behind the simulation. pic.twitter.com/6CHV2V8hD5 Permalink 10:17 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Mathematical Finance Du Jour. Where I show how a power law mimics stochastic volatility. pic.twitter.com/h4GjdYlsHW Permalink 10:09 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@RobertKennedyJr Wow! #Monsanto loses another court case over its widely used weed killer. #MonsantoTrial https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Monsanto-loses-another-court-case-over-its-widely-13159459.php Permalink 9:06 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Does someone have data on the longevity of airline pilots (jet engine). We have data for flight attendants & radiation therapists, but pilots have 1) lower load, 2) aren’t allowed to take sleeping pills. cc:@Mangan150 @GuruAnaerobic @MichaelSagnerMD https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1011244554622676992 Permalink 7:02 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb During Roman times, children’s educators were usually slaves. Nothing has changed. The principal thing a slave can teach children is how to not be free and make the best of it. In other words, how to think like a slave. Gabish? https://twitter.com/MatthewAckerman/status/1030083875756814336 Permalink 6:34 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Getting ready to go to the city with the highest density of rent seekers, to deliver a lecktchur on hidden rent seeking & the effect on systemic risk. Will also talk about regulatory recapture: Monsanto owns the EPA/FDA but NOT the court system; how common law is robust. https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1022942029184163841 Permalink 5:59 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb There is something irremediably sad at an atheist’s funeral. Permalink 5:13 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb And no, most humans do NOT want to be liberated from monotonous tasks, except for (parts of) the weekend. Most want the soothing predictability of a schedule, even those who call themselves “adventurers”. Permalink 5:02 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Routine is effortless. Most humans, alas, prefer to expend physical, never intellectual energy. Creating requires much, much more effort. https://twitter.com/jackdcowling/status/1030058263193300993 Permalink 4:55 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The boss: Antonio. pic.twitter.com/TzSBNrRoZV Permalink 5:07 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Squid Ink, finally. California looks Mediterranean, ma non è la cosa reale. Nova York looks nonMed, but it’s just an accident of geography. pic.twitter.com/6ZV8h18Xqt Permalink 5:01 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@The_Cyrenian While the ignorant masses were busy watching Obama dance on Ellen and crack jokes on Jimmy Fallon, my fellow Syrian Christians and I were suffering at the hands of #Obama and #Hillary’s genocidal foreign-policy: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/15/world/middleeast/syria-isis-assyrian-christians.html Permalink 1:42 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The counter coup-d’etat is completed. https://www.rt.com/usa/436054-trump-revokes-cia-brennan-clearance/ Permalink 1:25 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Any work you do in the comfort of a routine risks being taken over by a robot. Permalink 12:30 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The answer to Maestro Bogomolny who has time to critique it in Heaven: Finally found the probabilistic interpretation: the Cantelli bound. pic.twitter.com/5iFOE4yuiO Permalink 10:44 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Ole, nobody ever broke a mafia & rent-seeking clubs by being “generous and kind”! Nudgeboys Thaler & Sunstein feel entitled to manipulate citizens, increasing tail risk! Sunstein wants to prevent citizens from knowing if food has GMOs When you go, go for the jugular! Permalink 10:13 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@DrMichaelBonner I owe all my academic success to the squat and the deadlift: https://twitter.com/FrontiersIn/status/1006064896453349376 Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I’m out of here. pic.twitter.com/jTGwJ95HEt Permalink 5:54 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The cult of the youth (by the youth) results from an elementary logical fallacy. If 90% of successful innovations come from the young, less than 1/1000 of innovations by youth work. Statistically, youth correlates w/mediocrity, sloth, physical weakness, & lack of creativity. Permalink 5:00 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Computational irreducibility: by @stephen_wolfram , explains why the consequences of some stuff like GMOs cannot be understood the way Monsanto claims… https://twitter.com/complexity_labs/status/1029110374937911296 Permalink 9:13 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb And (aggressively) vegetarian. Permalink 8:21 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb San Francisco: tatooed millennials with the wrong type of attitude problem, overcrowding in overpriced tenements. Permalink 7:44 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@Decafquest “As for scholars, I respect their labour and have drawn great benefits from it, but the fact is that at the banquet of philosophy they are neither the cooks nor the gourmets but the waiters that run between the two.” – Bryan Magee #skininthegame #philosophy #academia Permalink 2:27 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@GMWatch Corruption of science by the agrochemical industry: #Monsanto flooded scientific journals with ghostwritten articles https://www.gmwatch.org/en/news/latest-news/18408-the-monsanto-papers-poisoning-the-scientific-well New peer-reviewed source details Monsanto’s deceptive activities ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/W6QaY06ZdB”> pic.twitter.com/W6QaY06ZdB Permalink 7:28 AM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb At the core of what pple are not getting (from @ole_b_peters expl.) is that making $110 vs losing $100 with 50% probability is not a state-space issue, but part of a sequential procedure dynamically repeated over time, with required edge (here $5) changing as one makes or loses. Permalink 5:41 AM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR “mni7” in Lebanese, meaning “fine”, does not seem to come from the Arabic المَنْحُ: العطاء (grant), rather from from the Aramaic “peaceful”,”content”, Heb מָנוֹחַ (unless I am mistaken, cc:@Jonassibony ) pic.twitter.com/cGqIxhSpAn Permalink 11:30 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The powerful thing about this inequality is that, for finite samples Xs= {X_1, X_2,…,X_n}, w/average m, n odd (for small samples) and Xi copies of X drawn from ANY probability distribution in R, not even IID, E((Xs-m)^2)>Median(Xs)^2, even if all moments of X are infinite! Permalink 7:23 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally started a math “blog”. There are incomplete problems by @CutTheKnotMath. cc:@SvetlanaBogom13, @gcfr20, @mikeandallie, @long, @octonion, etc. https://fattailsandotherissues.wordpress.com/2018/08/13/maestro-bogomolnys-last-quiz/ Permalink 5:46 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Where some aspects of the point are fleshed out https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3 Permalink 4:32 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Why Nudge and Behavioral Economics are PseudoScience, a summary pic.twitter.com/oMkd1IMQq4 Permalink 4:28 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Ole Peters quietly informing nudgeboy @R_Thaler that his understanding of his own subject matter (probabilistic decision making) is highly deficient. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1028916116507246593 Permalink 4:08 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Mr @teppofelin, one never debates a bulls***ter. Permalink 4:50 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@primalpoly We’re recruiting subjects aged 18+ for a psychology study on religious art. It’s an online survey that takes about 45 minutes. It includes ratings and memory tests for about 90 religious images. If interested, please go to https://esurvey.unm.edu/opinio/s?s=93060 Permalink 4:04 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb About 6 y ago, a B-School prof, @teppofelin, BS vendor type, couldn’t get #Antifragile & was nasty about it. He was teaching “entrepreneurship” while being on a salary. Academics don’t notice these things. Permalink 4:00 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You are more likely to change your mind from a bad argument from someone on your initial side than a good argument from someone on the other side. Permalink 2:28 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@Lentejitas These are some of @nntaleb’s Black Swans ;-) Have a good night! pic.twitter.com/PBhoPBkwl9 Permalink 1:29 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb For some reason B-School Profs (living on charities) think they are smarter (less “irrational”) than real world risk takers when they are clueless about the math (ergodicity+fat tails). Flaws by finance prof (@WGoetzmann) who think TBS is an “airport book” pic.twitter.com/ilxSy4GqEx Permalink 12:04 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Next step: Business Schools; ban teaching by nonpractitioners. https://twitter.com/doshijatin/status/1028689718140174336 Permalink 11:20 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@EdLatimore “Ironically, by being beggars, they had the equivalent of ‘f*** you money’, which we can more easily get by being at the lowest rung than by joining the income-dependent classes.” @nntaleb, Skin in The Game Permalink 8:30 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Posted TECHNICAL INCERTO, VOL 1: THE STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS (~300 pages) https://www.academia.edu/37221402/TECHNICAL_INCERTO_VOL_1_THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS?s=t via @academia Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Our planet has many more trees than 35 years ago! Looks like people notice deforestation, but not reforestation. Media & UN reports by self serving bureaucrats who want to “solve” your problems. ALWAYS get stuff by systematic analysis, NEVER piecemeal observations. pic.twitter.com/6a8uEj7iPM Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Localism ≠ Nationalism @nntaleb L maxalliye ≠ l çawmiyye https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1002949896209600512 Permalink 2:39 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@KenDBerryMD Retweet if you think we need Nassim Taleb to help us straighten out medical/nutrition research!!! Permalink 6:43 PM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I am very rude to *high status* people who are rude to waiters/waitresses. Usually twice as rude. Sometimes three times, just to make sure. You cannot believe how many pple on the “left” are rude to waiters, as they feel their “mission” insulates them from humans #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/MsBlaireWhite/status/1027976344569704448 Permalink 12:15 PM – 11 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Çahammiyet l kitébé bel lebnéné, video la Nassim Taleb: #lebanese #lebnene https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI Permalink 10:58 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Page 10… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ludicfallacy #antifragile #infinitegames #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/vIMigj3S05 Permalink 10:16 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb That’s next https://twitter.com/ocrashad/status/1028323587092930560?s=21 Permalink 10:07 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/gmwatch/status/1028316002415792128?s=21 Permalink 10:05 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@M_Gauche “We define “rude” less by the words used than by the status of the recipient.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:21 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You lower *regulatory recapture* by having fewer regulations (as w/medication: only when the court/tort system doesn’t help). Put skin into the game of corporations. ( Pple hearing my shouts when the news hit wondered what soccer game I was following) https://twitter.com/WaqasHaque411/status/1028266120648843264 Permalink 6:42 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@JohnMinehan1 Which is Nicholas Nassim Taleb’s point . . . . https://twitter.com/2peterharris/status/1028235466036969472 Permalink 4:28 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@Decafquest ma2al zghir katabto 3an 2este3mel l lebnene ka legha maktoobe. Shu ra2yak? @nntaleb #lebanese #lebanon #lebnene https://medium.com/@mahmoud.rasmi/bel-lebnene-5cc091b0c9fc Permalink 4:12 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This nightmare “Chased by Monsanto” (from @black_swan_man) is over. Now time for payback. I mean find the *individuals* involved. pic.twitter.com/cAQPK3KEN0 Permalink 3:20 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Sweet victory…. It is particularly powerful that the legal system (torts) protects citizens, while regulators are in collusion w/industry: the EPA/FDA let Monsanto ghostwrite their rules. Regulators are bribed by industry as they get hired later as payback. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 5:55 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@nntaleb They didn’t just lose a case. They lost another 100. Now I will go after the shills who contacted NYU. Permalink 3:29 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@nntaleb CHAMPAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGNE!!!!!!!!!!!!! Monsanto lost the trial. It is not about Glyphosate. It’s that the manipulation of science by corporations, the bullying of scientists does not pay! https://twitter.com/careygillam/status/1028039905471950849 Permalink 3:26 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@OpenSecretsDC OpenSecrets searchable ‘Foreign Lobby Watch’ database makes it easier than ever to browse through disclosures related to foreign influence in the US: http://crp.org/faraw ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/B2dLWFBz6t”> pic.twitter.com/B2dLWFBz6t Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Aug 2018

@PenguinVerlag In welcher Welt leben wir – was meint ihr? @nntaleb verrät uns seine Sicht in »Das Risiko und sein Preis«. Ab 27.08. erhältlich: http://bit.ly/DasRisikoundseinPreis #SkinintheGame ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/HoHIHr28uq”> pic.twitter.com/HoHIHr28uq Permalink 6:17 AM – 10 Aug 2018

@alessabocchi Can someone check if the NYT has recently taken any funds from Saudi Arabia? https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1027585342029918213 Permalink 1:41 PM – 9 Aug 2018

@georgemacgill Today I Learnt: WITTGENSTEIN’S RULER Don’t just use your beliefs to measure reality, but also use reality to measure your beliefs. If the IDIOT keeps getting it right, it might not be them who is the idiot @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/zQPHIH2Oc3 Permalink 12:38 PM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What Saudi Barbaria is doing to Canada is simple signaling: to show other states what’s in store if they criticize their human rights. The problem of course … Permalink 11:37 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You may use his Lebanese dictionary and write in social media script (3al 3adé). My opinion is that an Ataturk style precise top-down alphabet is not necessary. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI&t=3s&frags=pl%2Cwn Permalink 11:06 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@holland_tom I remember in the summer of 2014 the eyes of the world being so fixed on Gaza – where, brutal though the conflict was, no genocide was remotely being attempted – that it pretty much ignored Sinjar, where the Yazidis were absolutely the targets of genocide. https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1027438325769101319 Permalink 9:47 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb So effectively, thanks to Roger Makhluf, Lebanese ceased to be a dialect on Aug 8, 2018. Permalink 9:30 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@UnSubtleDesi [Archives] Economists bullshit for a living : ⁦@nntaleb⁩ gives Kaushik Basu a lesson on ‘Skin in the Game’ http://www.opindia.com/2018/04/economists-bullshit-for-a-living-nn-taleb-gives-kaushik-basu-a-lesson-on-skin-in-the-game/ Permalink 8:29 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally, A Lebanese-English dictionary/Lexicon. 630 pages! (Arabists won’t like it) https://www.amazon.com/Lebanese-English-Lexicon-Rojee-Makluuf-ebook/dp/B07G9PJTQ2/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1533825238&sr=8-1&keywords=Rojee+makluuf&dpID=31gqiw2AeiL&preST=_SY445_QL70_&dpSrc=srch Permalink 7:36 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@baielala “Almost all those caught making a logical fallacy interpret it as a ‘disagreement’.” – @nntaleb https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIODdHYl95d1dWNE0/edit Permalink 7:25 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb We are prone to epidemics of fallacies (scientism, universalism, academism, psychosociologism, stateworshipism), but not epidemics of wisdom, as nature filters out those with bad immune system. Permalink 5:34 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The NYT needs to sell more and more subscriptions to stay in the same place. Concave growth. (The rise in stock price was largely due to the maahket’s.) Indeed, this is a dying business. Unethical journalism doesn’t pay. pic.twitter.com/n0a50DQ0LP Permalink 4:14 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Financial Maahkets aren’t fooled by the NYT “growth” story: + Close to saturation for digital subscriptions ~(40% from crossword puzzles!), now < logarithmic. + Rev. growth is not good. Ain’t a tech company! + The “Anti-Trump” strategy deligitimizes long term. https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1027181710419607558 Permalink 3:31 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@NonMeek Here’s my contribution to this thread. As a cartoonist my main challenge is to simplify any issue as much as possible without losing any of the meaning. I hope I succeeded in that with this comic strip. #LifeExpectancy #Math pic.twitter.com/aut5o1o46k Permalink 3:21 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@ClarkeMicah Still maundering, Professor? Amazed by my own magnanimity, I am *still* offering you the chance to withdraw the foolish defamatory statement which you are incapable of substantiating. Come on, man, do what you need to do. https://twitter.com/scottlucas_ea/status/1027304494680432641 Permalink 10:55 PM – 8 Aug 2018

@ClarkeMicah Still maundering, Professor? Amazed by my own magnanimity, I am *still* offering you the chance to withdraw the foolish defamatory statement which you are incapable of substantiating. Come on, man, do what you need to do. https://twitter.com/ScottLucas_EA/status/1027304494680432641 Permalink 10:55 PM – 8 Aug 2018

@nntaleb When your company is public you become the slave/depend on the opinion of the most clueless but vocal journalist, say @BretStephensNYT. No matter how rich, you never have f*** you money. Go private; f*** them. https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1026912973120462848 Permalink 9:06 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The point as presented 20 year ago in Fooled by Randomness. pic.twitter.com/kEupc0Emn0 Permalink 1:10 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is the offending statement. It is not whether the number is true or false, it is that the REASONING is false. pic.twitter.com/AXRb2kA9pg Permalink 12:31 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The correct (evolutionary) way to see what happens is: +Life expectancy while reaching full (socially accepted) reproductive age, i.e. ~15-25. Which will be much higher: In the previous example it would be 67. So childhood mortality removed 27 years of “average” life exp! Permalink 12:14 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Simply, if 40% died in childbirth (or very young, which is about historical number), 50% died at 60, and 10% died at 92, the “average” life expectation would be ~40. Childhood mortalily hugely skews the average. Permalink 12:04 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Thread of pple on twitter who understand statistics (and the notion of average) much much better than the @nytimes : life expectancy = 40 means a lot of infant mortality, not that people didn’t live long. Please, please, please avoid the NY Times. Please. https://twitter.com/owenezell/status/1026789999629484033 Permalink 8:54 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3500 years of Phoenician wine pic.twitter.com/U2ZMQY3wsm Permalink 7:03 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Now a disclaimer: one greatgrandmother and one great great grandmother are from Douma. (Douma is Greek Orthodox/Melkite) Permalink 4:52 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The surrounding gorges. Douma’s advantage is that it is out of the way and on the local top of a mountain; no ski no nonsense. pic.twitter.com/2937ddCftZ Permalink 4:24 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Tomb ~ 600 (priest of the goddess of health) pic.twitter.com/GKFFVviKHA Permalink 3:28 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Douma, most beautiful village both architecturally and scenically. Former Byzantine health spot. Church built in 1610. pic.twitter.com/DvMve2Gj7v Permalink 3:23 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Turned out the main beneficiaries of fossil fuel were the trees: people used to log for cooking/heating. At least until now. Permalink 11:26 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Even if one accepts risk aversion, it doesn’t work the way nudgeboy @R_Thaler thinks it does. pic.twitter.com/Swdu4yUnV9 Permalink 11:16 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The vicious thing in @josephinequinn’s Vox article is that she doesn’t flatly deny that Phoenicians existed; she just packages her anachronistic argument (absence of passport & flag-style national “identity”) to make you believe that they never existed. Shoddy. Permalink 2:31 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb More than 5,500 years https://twitter.com/richmcgaha/status/1026547483462139904 Permalink 12:57 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The cartoonist understands my language ( “myopic bureaucrat imbeciles” ) but doesn’t get that a thin waist is not for weightlifters. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1026297804648525826 Permalink 12:01 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@sidpathak92 What a Saudi govt handle tweeted before deleting. But sure it is the Persians who are the enemy. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/i7VCgqeWfU Permalink 10:18 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@RogerCremades How do #rigidity traps work in #socio-#ecological #systems? Amazingly, this comics explains it with pristine clarity. I congratulate @black_swan_man & @nntaleb. More on rigidity traps, the #adaptivecycle, risks, insurance and climate change here https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0044-2.epdf?author_access_token=ba94udDKN3bSyWKsBb_MotRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PqLfoL8EXoMy7UUI3hBF7YmO2O68NxhD7gHhYj07eiUujlnPShfbXLDBBFLWmtEilUAjHdpztO6tX-E8oMp4VMjRrrbhToNEIA4yRz0mpXcg%3D%3D https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1026297804648525826 Permalink 7:11 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@thackerpd Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) as Invasive Species http://www.aiscience.org/journal/paperInfo/jepsd?paperId=3925 You’ll never see any #GMO promoting journalist discuss this paper, because the only thing they yammer about is “#GMO products are safe to consume, so end of story.” Permalink 5:24 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Why did the Crisis happen? This is from my testimony, what Obama’s bureaucrats did not want to report. (Also I withdrew the paper from a journal owing to stupid comments by referee, republished elsewhere) pic.twitter.com/kB6gWX7De5 Permalink 12:39 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Turned out, @realDavidGal has shown, “Risk Aversion” is a fiction. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/why-the-most-important-idea-in-behavioral-decision-making-is-a-fallacy/?sf194849524=1 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/901472828310114304 Permalink 12:26 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@ziadaboujamra @nntaleb The view from Dhour El Choueir yesterday. Green indeed! pic.twitter.com/UpWvZA1YbS Permalink 11:10 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Page 9… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #yellowstoneeffect #wildfire #endthefed #daoofcapital #antifragile pic.twitter.com/sB6VKLR3Q2 Permalink 7:43 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@SamuelGWalters Alexander Bogomolny liked inequalities, so here is one on his behalf. (I came across it while doing estimate calculations.) @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb @SvetlanaBogom13 #math #FunFact pic.twitter.com/sICzlqaXwS Permalink 1:53 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb A lot of docs written in Phoenician were lost, but a lot of Phoenicians wrote in lingua franca later (Greek) as was the norm in Levant after 3nd Century BC, same as Indians writing in English now. Does it make Josephus count as non Jewish? Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Lack of skin in the game. (Photo taken before heavy deadlifting phase) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nassim-taleb-no-one-who-caused-the-crisis-paid-any-price-vbj2lzc6d Permalink 12:24 PM – 5 Aug 2018

Ergodicity, Immigration, Nudgers, Monsanto, Gold, Blue, Pedophrasty, Pinker, Harris | Twitter

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#FF @CutTheKnotMath (Maestro Alex. Bogomolny) w/ whom just spent 3 h talking about Russian & NonRussian probability. pic.twitter.com/3E29W3pr5u

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) June 22, 2018

@nntaleb Ergodicity part 2! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1013450757943775233 Permalink 2:12 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He got ergodicity. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1013450358163755010 Permalink 2:08 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Of course. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1013019208085639169 Permalink 12:31 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) As a Christian Lebanese, saw the nightmare of uncontrolled immigration of Palestinians which caused the the civil war. & as a part-time resident of N. Lebanon, I am seeing the effect of Syrian migration on the place. So I despise these virtue-signaling open-borders imbeciles. Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The discussion is not about the invention of calculus, but about Leibnitz, the last of the real polymaths (although he didn’t lift weights), and how mathematics is something that one can pick-up later in life. Gabish? Permalink 5:48 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) OK, OK, my Indian friends. Rediscovered calculus. Works now? Permalink 7:33 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Leibniz was a legal philosopher who at the age of 26 decided to learn math, then (co)invented calculus. https://twitter.com/MathsEdIdeas/status/1013204854066606081 Permalink 7:26 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Controlled immigration is based on the symmetry that someone brings in at least as much as he/she gets out. And the ethics of the immigrant is to defend the system as payback, not mess it up. Uncontrolled immigration has all the attributes of invasions. Permalink 7:22 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@normonics It’s not just pol sci people. The idea that the scale of a system is relevant to its behavior is OBVIOUS; yet almost never accounted for. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1013100413602680837 Permalink 3:10 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb What intellectuals don’t get about MIGRATION is the ethical notion of SYMMETRY: OPEN BORDERS work if and only if the number of pple who want to go from EU/US to Africa/LatinAmer equals Africans/Latin Amer who want to move to EU/US Silver Rule in #SkinInTheGame Gabish? Permalink 2:05 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@Jeff_Fine Questions? pic.twitter.com/e7r4mQunXF Permalink 1:03 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For real people, if something works in theory, but not in practice, it doesn’t work. For academics, if something works in practice, but not in theory, it doesn’t exist. Permalink 12:59 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) This illusion that one can work with abstract ideas WITHOUT embedding them is the reason “intellectuals” don’t get skin in the game. (thread w @ClaireBerlinski ) Permalink 9:44 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is some type of common reasoning defect shared by people in political “science”: they don’t get scaling “Democracy” is not scalable. They don’t understand my insults: it’s not about ideas but in what environments ideas can be practically executed #ComplexSystems https://twitter.com/ClaireBerlinski/status/1013058174465859587 Permalink 9:42 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@Baloo1987 An article written by a toxicologist working for #Monsanto is then handed to regulators who then simply copy-pasted it into the EU regulatory review. The definition a revolving door. Unbelievable! #CIJsummer #MonsantoPapers pic.twitter.com/jdJtyBa60K Permalink 6:02 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dorin Marghidanu’s Functional Equation https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/DorinMarghidanuFunctionalEquation.shtml #FigureThat #math #algebra ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WRgWtwrGRm”> pic.twitter.com/WRgWtwrGRm Permalink 5:43 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Hope @freakonometrics can comment, as a follow-up to our debate with @DrCirillo as to whether statisticians have considered such consequence of fattailedness. All comments, whether positive or negative, are welcome. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bitm9ejxxyyfdf/kappa-n-final.pdf?dl=0 Permalink 2:53 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@GreenPlusAnE Congress set up non-profits to raise $ for @NIH & @CDCGov. They illegally hid info about their corporate donors. Meanwhile, US health experienced its worst decline in a century. Now they’re lying about it. Time for #skininthegame. http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/06/us-lawmakers-want-nih-and-cdc-foundations-say-more-about-donors cc: @nntaleb Permalink 2:41 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Fraud Alert: QUORA ask Statisticians what they think of my work and get Unethical Mandari Narayan @neurostats to comment on anecdotes from Incerto, WITHOUT considering technical work. The fraud by Mandari Narayan sits for 3 y on the web. Comment on this! http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html Permalink 2:07 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The initial results of the M4 Competition can be found/downloaded in https://www.m4.unic.ac.cy/results/ The ranking of the first half of methods can be seen below ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fPmOZHkUGw”> pic.twitter.com/fPmOZHkUGw Permalink 9:46 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I’ve never been more excited to attend a conference! @NECSI’s #ICCS2018 https://twitter.com/NECSI/status/1012102041446084608 Permalink 7:32 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other counterintuitive aspect is that EVEN if Country X won EVERY past game, injecting a tiny bit of randomness into the system can make its probability of winning drop below, say, 10%. A tiny bit of randomness percolates quickly across the branches of the tree. Permalink 6:44 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is a set of probabilities that can give Germany 25% of winning without 100% probability of being in the semi-finals: that CONDITIONAL on making the semi-finals probability increases. However, the opposite holds: the higher up, the MORE 1/n. Gabish? Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Et cela continue https://www.capital.fr/votre-carriere/la-bibliotheque-du-manager-jouer-sa-peau-de-nicholas-taleb-1295541 Permalink 6:21 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Very similar to elections. Under high variance, you go closer to 1/n probability per team, where n is the number of teams, with minor variations (except for the very bad teams such as Saudi Barbaria). The more uncertainty, the more distributed the bets. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/r3T9zNsB4k”> pic.twitter.com/r3T9zNsB4k Permalink 5:57 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Giving Germany a 25% chance of winning is a very arrogant statement, it is equivalent to giving Germany ~100% chance of making it to the semi-final. Don’t listen to bank research pple with no #SkinintheGame who talk about probability. Permalink 5:07 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Discovered something: negative kurtosis and negative kappa. Some distributions are thinner-tailed than the Gaussian (needs to be bimodal) pic.twitter.com/JW0q7oFBok Permalink 4:56 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, thanks to the crowd-corrections @spyrosmakrid gave me a stay of execution. I got an extension. Permalink 5:13 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Les françaises et français commencent a aimer mon livre “Jouer sa peau”. Ils en ont marre de leur fonctionnaires. pic.twitter.com/wgZoj0bCJG Permalink 4:47 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Naturally it debunks some of the “nudgers” s.a. @r_thaler showing they don’t understand fat tails & probability. pic.twitter.com/FKZJiIgnef Permalink 4:00 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, I was told in no uncertain terms by the editors & @spyrosmakrid that I get severely punished if I don’t meet the deadline for this paper (today). Please help find errors. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bitm9ejxxyyfdf/kappa-n-final.pdf?dl=0 (cont) ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jvngV00bHs”> pic.twitter.com/jvngV00bHs Permalink 3:59 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@StoolPoop I like that @nntaleb isnt left or right but rather local over global. I imagine he respects the harassing of pols in public. “Keep them close enough to kick them” Permalink 1:10 PM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If employees of UBS knew how to run simulations, they wouldn’t be employees of UBS, but customers of the Private Banking group of UBS. How can’t people think in 1 ½ order effects? https://twitter.com/business/status/997061733566107649 Permalink 9:44 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 The idea to eat a plant-based diet is based on 2 mistakes. 1. Blaming meat for what ultra-processed foods did. 2. Blaming cholesterol for what insulin resistance did. Permalink 9:31 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To prove to Spyros I am really working on it, here is the paper in progress. Friends can help with typos. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bitm9ejxxyyfdf/kappa-n-final.pdf?dl=0 Permalink 8:06 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is meta-Skin in the Game https://twitter.com/michaelbjacksa/status/1011639219998150656 Permalink 3:24 PM – 26 Jun 2018

@LucasVitorinoS3 ‘Homens fracos agem para satisfazer suas necessidades, homens fortes agem para cumprir seus deveres’ – @nntaleb Permalink 10:58 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@normonics If you’re concerned about what we’re doing to the climate by exposing it to a large amount of a non-novel agent You should be MUCH MORE concerned about GMO agr, as we are exposing ecosystems globally to massive amount of novel agents — including living ones that can replicate! Permalink 9:31 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Essay: Monsanto’s ghostwriting and strong-arming threaten sound science—and society http://www.ehn.org/monsanto-effort-to-skew-science-2581194459.html Permalink 5:43 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The heuristic is, simply, production of a commodity / volatility, signal/noise and you can see how much additional discovery/supply matters. Permalink 7:01 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I can understand that @JustinWolfers is just another academic living on charity; but surprised to discover that @neelkashkari is head of a Fed and doesn’t realize that existing gold stock is monstrous in relation to production. Who put him there? Permalink 5:26 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Quant Finance researchers meet Medicine Quants today: pic.twitter.com/4P99A33mVR Permalink 3:36 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Antigragility: my lecktchur in 2 hours https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1011244554622676992 Permalink 12:52 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These idiots have never traded gold and seen forward contracts sold by producers. Permalink 12:46 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In fact unlike with money supply, gold miners are distributed and in competition. Permalink 12:29 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These 2 clueeeeeeeeless economists have no idea that the competitive mahket values gold in the ground as an asset with optionality. I mean clueeeeless. @JustinWolfers is particularly ignorant of everything. https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/1011309709012488193 Permalink 12:19 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@d_a_n Some things don’t scale. Consider how you react to a car blocking the road. Small community – I get out, say hi, ask if help is needed, chat happily for 30 mins City – I hoot, swear, call the cops, maybe resort to road rage (thanks to @nntaleb for the insight) Permalink 9:30 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As I said the English “commoners” accept their GENETIC inferiority to the aristocracy but these hypocrites go on talking about political correctness with other commoners. Disgusting. https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1010121158233116674 Permalink 9:26 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Background and solution pic.twitter.com/kEkc0xx98H Permalink 7:38 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@catoletters Robert Mueller was the biggest obstacle for Sept. 11 families who wanted to sue Saudi Arabia https://washex.am/2lodyqk Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Obama destroyed Syrian Christianity, something 1300 years of Arab rule didn’t do; Remember Christianity was born there, the NT was in the Greek of Antioch. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-24/ben-rhodes-admits-obama-armed-jihadists-syria-bombshell-interview Permalink 6:16 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mini-Lecture (5 min) today at BBQ (Bloomberg Quant Seminar) in Honor of Rabbi “Tony” Glickman, 1950-2018. “Life is Long Gamma” @DaliaGlickman pic.twitter.com/QKyjXvGnVJ Permalink 5:43 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb BTW to understand what is called “GMO”, see this http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BCfzvMNc19″> pic.twitter.com/BCfzvMNc19 Permalink 4:10 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A Canadian brewer, @SteamWhistle is being harrassed by shills for listing “GMO free” on its beer. Turned out it is illegal in Canada to say “GMO free” (without some disclaimer): who wrote that law? https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1011197845578436608 Permalink 3:44 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@jj_mllr New Blogpost: How two tweets about a simple coin toss experiment by @drob and @nntaleb can cause an academic existential crisis: Coin Tosses, Markov Chains, and an Existential Crisis. https://correlaid.org/blog/posts/markov-chains Permalink 2:40 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Finally, after 6 ½ years, someone found a mistake in Antifragile. Will correct ASAP. The ancients had a color for blue. All references on that are wrong. https://twitter.com/Shuwen22973519/status/1011008301549674496 Permalink 3:13 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Prove that limit Gamma[n,n]/Gamma[n]=½ as n->infinity pic.twitter.com/LL5XJpn9P6 Permalink 2:36 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Accidentally stumbling on a helpful identity on a Sunday morning… pic.twitter.com/7hrrm634r5 Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Big Ag using financially insecure journos/”sci communicators” to sell: GMO/Glyphosate = science HENCE technosalvation (pedophrasty: only they can help “starving children” ) Anecdote = “evidence based” Bezos got that better food distribution >>technoBS https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/1010659272756088832 Permalink 5:47 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@NicuMihalache #skininthegame, the book by @nntaleb starts gently and rather predictably for those familiar with the Incerto series (and his Medium articles https://medium.com/@nntaleb ) then it takes you for a series of spins so that you want to tweet every other paragraph Permalink 5:34 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb MONSANTO Charlatan Watch: ask BS vendor @mark_lynas to produce systematic safety studies. Also ask him why he is in favor of both GMOs and Glyphosate (except that GMOs are an excuse to >3x pesticides & fry your soil). Charlatan! https://www.wsj.com/articles/confession-of-an-anti-gmo-activist-1529679465 via @WSJ Permalink 4:54 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@HypPioneer @nntaleb weighs in scam artists exploiting children to get what they want politically (open borders, war, etc.): https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 Permalink 4:35 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Ralph Nader Asks Former First Ladies: Why No “Heartfelt Concern for Tens of Thousands of Children Killed or Seriously Maimed” by Their Husbands’ Wars? – https://goo.gl/z4Ydz5 via @commondreams Permalink 3:18 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb All East Med citizens are nervously waiting for the selection of the new Byzantine Emperor. Permalink 3:42 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@thomas_quinlan Today’s word of the day: pedophrasty — the use of pictures of suffering children to advance an agenda. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-23/obama-kept-them-cages-pedophrastry-politicians-exposed This story via @zerohedge but term coined by the brilliant @nntaleb, here: https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 Permalink 3:31 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Let me dispell some mistakes. Do not conflate farniente with laziness. In the Med, idleness is never a virtue unless the person gets rich or does great things while exercizing it. That’s the difference with other cultures both further North and further South. Gabish? Permalink 12:06 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@ErwanLeCorre Ethically-evolved sports will avoid micro-agressions, turn sports fields into safe spaces. Next progress: kill the social-construct which is “competency.” The ultimate step: competition is elitist and inherently discriminatory. No more losers: EVERYONE WINS. pic.twitter.com/ODXHngjQl8 Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Visually. We can also count the triangles pic.twitter.com/4AIJncTcRo Permalink 10:15 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@_benoux_ Exactly! I also like the clear distinction of @nntaleb on Sophrosyne (σωφροσύνη) vs. Rationality based on “graphs”, “facts” and “evidence”, all based on current state. Current state – one day – will collapse. It’s hybris to act on the presumption of immortality. pic.twitter.com/tqjX3d4x0C Permalink 10:04 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor. Permalink 5:54 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Laura, but Naples for me is not monuments for tourists, but 1) narrow streets with laudry hanging from the window, 2) a f*** you attitude that permeates the place, 3) A (tiny) remaining Greek-Orthodox minority… pic.twitter.com/yRV259U1up Permalink 5:49 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, fughotaboud Genova, better choice than Venice. You need to find a place WITHOUT Goethe-inspired visiting Northerners who don’t know what sitting at a terrace doing absolutely nothing means. These include de-Mediterranized Northern Italians. Permalink 4:01 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It always depends on the terrace. And I prefer Naples or Palermo. https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1010212840505069569 Permalink 3:50 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@GuyMorant Attention manipulation. Le génial essayiste Nassim Taleb partage un cas troublant d’utilisation d’une photo d’enfant pour court-circuiter la réflexion. “Pédophrastie”, retenez ce terme. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1010262470806659076 Permalink 10:54 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember that just as surgeons don’t look like surgeons strong men don’t look like athletes in ancient Greek sculptures. pic.twitter.com/VJSlKH3ZXx Permalink 2:44 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Which is why it was necessary to coin the term “pedophrasty”. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 https://twitter.com/esaagar/status/1010121223206993920 Permalink 1:45 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/860823348238061570 Permalink 1:17 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It continues… Mistake: he didn’t realize that people who really lift weights (instead of using machines) don’t have a thin waist. (cont) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1010214913627828230 Permalink 1:16 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #FF @CutTheKnotMath (Maestro Alex. Bogomolny) w/ whom just spent 3 h talking about Russian & NonRussian probability. pic.twitter.com/3E29W3pr5u Permalink 12:37 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Never speak ill of the dead. But one can stay silent about him if he CAUSED deaths. If he advocated the Iraq War/WMD nonsense, then without REPENTANCE, another regime change/war, one must stay silent. For extreme cases: damnatio memoriae יִמַּח שְׁמוֹ וְזִכְרוֹ Permalink 8:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) People here aren’t getting the aberration: +Book written in US; author in US; publisher in US; readers (of US edition) in US. +Printed in China <=> Chinese censorship. +Publishers & Authors find this NORMAL. This is one side of Globalism Globalists need to explain. Gabish? Permalink 8:32 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Note that my problem with Chinese printers was resolved amicably (they accepted) but I am SHOCKED that no other author had the guts to stand up to the weirdness Chinese censorship of a US book by a US author. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/dec/14/nassim-nicholas-taleb-hits-out-at-chinese-printers-censorship-of-his-book?CMP=share_btn_tw Permalink 6:34 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If BS Vendor Pinker’s @sapinker’s book was a scientific paper, it would have been retracted. Pinker has not answered question w/@DrCirillo : Why is he making Richardson say something OPPOSITE to what he said? All his “evidence” reposes on that. pic.twitter.com/75WpSF8Hi0 Permalink 5:31 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@Zilvera1 Brilliant van @nntaleb over salafisme.The bureaucrats and representatives of the“elites” (Van Aartsen) are fooled by the label. They treat Salafism as just a religion –with its houses of “worship” — when in fact it is just an intolerant political system. https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e Permalink 5:10 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@market_fox An example of why “doctors should not look like doctors” @nntaleb http://webuser.bus.umich.edu/dsosyura/Research%20Papers/FamilyDescentDec2016.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3HFYZhkFxR”> pic.twitter.com/3HFYZhkFxR Permalink 4:13 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To summarize thread above, rationality is not about “beliefs” but actions, #SkinInTheGame. It is not scientific to evaluate raw “beliefs”. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/KhOyJPJYkm Permalink 2:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@z3nblack Sometimes I find @nntaleb is standing against an army on his own. Then again, I realize these battles are not fought with guns or swords. One can project the power (& refinement) of their mind against the many, & the numbers *against* don’t matter. Interesting times to be alive. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1009778944344776704 Permalink 2:39 PM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other problem with Charlatan @SamHarrisOrg is that he talks about “rationality” without even remotely knowing what it means. Charlatan. https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a Permalink 11:56 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@TMFStoffel This excerpt from @JohnCarreyrou’s Bad Blood shows Elizabeth Holmes carrying out a version of @nntaleb’s *Pedophastry* Dubious claims of a heinous act that are a smokescreen and weaken claims of real victims https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dh32aC4uCG”> pic.twitter.com/dh32aC4uCG Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Christianity is not *only* 2000 y old. It is a mutation of >4K y of Mediterranean-Anatolian creeds, mysteries, and mythologies. And its structure dates from the early Roman republic. Atheism has no #Lindy to build on, continue and progress from. https://twitter.com/Judgementional/status/1009777859769131008 Permalink 5:43 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@ggreenwald Is there any benefit or value at all in inquiring why these sorts of abuses generated so little attention and anger pre-2017, or should we just go ahead and ignore that question? See also: https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/KIND%20-%20Betraying%20Family%20Values.pdf https://twitter.com/McClatchyDC/status/1009771953597624320 Permalink 5:19 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Harris @SamHarrisOrg: style & content of the charlatan. 1 Arguments entirely strawman; engages in mocking for effect. 2 Imposture “neuroscientist” when he is just a journalist/writer: would a university/lab hire him as junior faculty in *neuroscience*? https://twitter.com/Tweetsintoabyss/status/1009755755837194241 Permalink 4:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Haha! https://twitter.com/ChielMuurling/status/1009746908682874885 Permalink 3:38 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get that Christianity is about church!= state https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e Permalink 3:24 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Arabism and the bigoteering by Arabists. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ayMK7md7B6″> pic.twitter.com/ayMK7md7B6 Permalink 3:13 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Religious statements are not epistemic (scientific, literal) claims, but risk-survival heuristics under incomplete understanding. Populations with the right risk heuristics survive. Others perish. 2) Christianity has a built-in separation church/state. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/Gore_Burnelli/status/1009734775236677632 Permalink 3:10 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams” https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 Permalink 1:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@rbarilla Maybe you still don’t “get” it. Without a proper vocabulary to describe unethical behavior, people cannot easily call out charlatans who exhibit such behavior. Given all of Taleb’s work, charlatans can now more easily be called out, including ourselves. Permalink 11:18 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams” https://medium.com/p/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 Permalink 12:26 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here is the text by Peter Henry Fonda https://twitter.com/ElenaHaskins/status/1009470781456183296 Permalink 9:23 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember the principle that we shd ignore actors’ own words, only listen to them when they mindlessly recite words written by pple with higher capacities of reasoning, when they impersonate much worthier humans. For the Romans, actors were the lowest form of human life. https://twitter.com/iamfonda/status/1009311889472421888 Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The paper with the initial results of the M4 Competition (with a small typo) can be found in the link https://www.scribd.com/document/382185710/IJF-Published-M4-Paper It can be also found in Science Direct shortly in the link https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.06.001 Good reading and apologies for the short delay. @robjhyndman Permalink 7:25 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A false accusation of rape has the side effect of inducing skepticism, causing genuine accusations to be taken less seriously. You are also harming the true victims. Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A light sentence is not sufficient. Under Hammurabi’s code, someone making a false accusation should bear the same penalty as if he were the perpetrator. https://nyp.st/2tlIrz6 via @nypost Permalink 7:03 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Research by salaried laborers is becoming a rent-seeking citation ring consisting of large scale imitative rituals, with a decreasing number of results, an increasing cluelessness of participants, and a multiplication of useless rules. Permalink 5:45 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The antifragility from fragility equation! https://twitter.com/shaarsh2/status/1009415062287736833 Permalink 5:43 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@rma_adler @nntaleb Fantastic book, now my favorite gym shirt (self-designed). Best… pic.twitter.com/Dwc5kliWhx Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@ektrit Factual persecution of Christians now enshrined in Canadian Law. https://twitter.com/LifeSite/status/1009394685771767810 Permalink 4:17 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman discussing the replication crisis: “There are 1 million scientific publications per year. Do we have one million scientific discoveries per year?” Permalink 3:57 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My new policy is to respond to 10% of offenses, but hit > 10x harder. Better than responding to half the offenses, but hitting the victim twice harder. Exception is when I want to kill time in airports. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1009102652532240385 Permalink 1:29 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb With the statistical vigilante, the great Andrew Gelman and Joshua Miller @jben0 pic.twitter.com/iIqZZzcIJb Permalink 12:54 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@sahouraxo The war criminal who oversaw the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children, separating them from their families forever, now wants us to believe that he suddenly cares about children. https://twitter.com/billclinton/status/1008379614908035073 Permalink 11:06 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Work with @spyrosmakrid on weather/climate https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1009019563923697664?s=21 Permalink 5:37 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Excellent news! Now if someone labels you as “Islamophobe” for opposing Salafinazism, you can sue. But try to squeeze more, a lot more out of them. https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1008724249794826246 Permalink 4:10 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@drjohnm @EJSMD has called the #COI of clinicians being employed one of the greatest COIs. < As @nntaleb wrote about, if you want to own someone, employ them. Recently heard in the doctor’s lounge: “Shh. they are listening.” Said in jest but… https://twitter.com/RogueRad/status/1009024816463142912 Permalink 3:51 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This idiot @matt_blackwell is a pol “scientist” doing “statistics” & didn’t get that news isn’t spreading because a minor actress is complaining abt her car being burned, but because @Tesla. Would the news spread if it were one of the other 180K? #IYI https://twitter.com/matt_blackwell/status/1008858264933666817 Permalink 3:43 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) There is this myth of “long run” data is thin tailed because of aggregation and “Central Limit”. A lot of BS. Just like “democracy”, “populism”, “racism”,”enlightenment”, the term “Central Limit” is uttered by parrots clueless of what they are talking about. pic.twitter.com/ZkDr8kuyHs Permalink 3:14 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) There are tests to see how Central Limit works: Summing data (say weekly returns) should produce thinner tails. Not the case. pic.twitter.com/nFLqRpOet0 Permalink 3:07 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Nice example of #SkinInTheGame https://twitter.com/alanshearer/status/1008826999526346752 Permalink 3:10 PM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Page 2, luckily there is no picture of me this time. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1008706906490273792 Permalink 11:29 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Thanks Shant. I am tired of people who come to my twitter account, dedicated to BS busting, expecting to hear some feel-good motivational sh*t. Permalink 7:46 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Milke Lawler @mikeandallie has done a grrrrrrrreat job explaining the Central Limit BS to his children. Preasymtotic behavior is CENTRAL. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1008134655424565254 Permalink 6:30 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is the kind of JUNK that has destroyed firms, social science/economics. CLT works at various speeds under fat tailed distributions. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf cc:@spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/theoremoftheday/status/1008698630033854465 Permalink 6:24 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The Markov chain: the expectation is 4 periods for one, 6 for the other. It is ONLY counterintuitive then you are trained/selected to think in Static terms. pic.twitter.com/ObaRcQKqRJ Permalink 4:17 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is a counterintuive property, an illustration of why you need to use DYNAMIC thinking into things that are dynamic, not STATIC. (cont) https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/1008327243280670720 Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 2 types of pple: Those who think in STATICS, those who think in DYNAMICS. Problem w/”intellectuals” & other idiots like @R_Thaler and @CassSunstein who become policymakers is that they can’t think in 2nd steps. Schools mismeasure intelligence w/low dimensional tests. pic.twitter.com/0Pl8LckQWJ Permalink 3:31 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As a general rule: the more you institutionalize rules of ethical behavior that should be voluntary (say anti-racism, anti-sexism), the more they will be used as a cover for unethical actions. Moral: remove all diversity rules for the sake of diversity. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1008476181425893378 Permalink 2:33 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@AllonMessenberg My father always said: “If you go to work every day, you have no time to make money!” Permalink 11:18 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@MisterNuance Zakaria is a textbook example of what @nntaleb warns about: a fake “expert” who pays no price for being wrong. https://twitter.com/fareedzakaria/status/1007448216210731008 Permalink 11:09 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 150K-200K car fires per annum. You take one event & an emotional statement of an actress & turn it into a statement about the safety of @Tesla. And this is 2018. I am blocking any commentator who doesn’t get it. In this and other similar situations. Finito. Permalink 8:08 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath … a counterintuitive property of coin-tossing: If Alice tosses a coin until she sees a head followed by a tail, and Bob tosses a coin until he sees two heads in a row, then on average, Alice will require four tosses while Bob will require six tosses … https://twitter.com/QuantaMagazine/status/1008231518324617216 Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Proper approach: count the rate of these things for @Tesla, compare to other auto-makers, & adjust by other safety statistics. I can’t believe that 18 years after Fooled by Randomness this type of bulls**t is still rampant. Another rule: Never listen to actors except on acting. https://twitter.com/marycmccormack/status/1007831286176571394 Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2-a) Every time I return from the W. Med it hits me there is *something* intense & sophisticated that’s different in the E. Med (i.e.,+Armenia/Georgia), reported since Byzantium. Turned out: The SILK ROAD & that Persian thingy Convinced @PZalloua to read @peterfrankopan’s book. Permalink 2:46 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is no argument in favor of pedophrasty that is not pedophrastic. (Circularity). https://twitter.com/elaines2cents/status/1008149614602514432 Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) One only criterion for (material) success: not having a schedule. Permalink 12:44 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Barbara @chicaderock, please read books BY Seneca, who was the real thing (a doer), not something ON Seneca by some library rat with a modern perspective. They will miss something essential. https://twitter.com/chicaderock/status/1008055357141405697 Permalink 12:05 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Moronic @hardsci, just 1 and we know which one it is. https://twitter.com/hardsci/status/1008036534614835205 Permalink 12:00 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that any argument (such as the one now used for illegal immigration) that is supported by pictures/narratives of children is called PEDOPHRASTY. Actually, use of children should weaken an argument. pic.twitter.com/qZ7Qn5pHN2 Permalink 6:48 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Corrected mistakes pic.twitter.com/u4QKlVPV2I Permalink 4:13 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The carpenter fallacy: do you hire a carpenter to understand the odds of a sequence at the roulette table? Or a probabilist? Moral: the more advanced a nondeterministic science the more it becomes the domain of the applied probabilist. Genetics is a probabilty problem. Permalink 2:16 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) The geneticist Pierre Zalloua visiting me in Northern Phoenicia, with Mount Lebanon in the background. THREAD: on the carpenter fallacy in genetics to follow. pic.twitter.com/EVVw9sUHvw Permalink 2:08 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@ThePradosh When you are halfway through #JackDaniels & start to read work by @nntaleb, you realize what #Millennials are truly are. #bedofprocrustes pic.twitter.com/aGyBVJzaom Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Convexity in Medicine: How Pharma cheats with the “evidence” (aside from P-hacking) cc:@MichaelSagnerMD pic.twitter.com/ONl8EUkx7t Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Just a reminder that Noah Smith @Noahpinion is a a pure BS Vendor before you read him on anything related to anything (s.a. Theranos & Skin in the Game). Gabish? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html Permalink 10:00 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The best surprise: a brand new gym in a converted mansion that belonged to a cousin of mine… pic.twitter.com/rLeJtOX9wi Permalink 10:18 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2/2 There are high demands to perform, indeed! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1007293724999733248 Permalink 6:16 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK. I found a local gym with barbells & a squat rack. Rushing there. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1007292750818168832 Permalink 6:14 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb We should de-anonymizing the “peer-review” process: referees can be harmfully stupid or vicious w/o accountability. This idiot tried to reject paper w/@DrCirillo because he couldn’t translate that 4 page 8½ by 11 compressed 1-spaced =12 pages double-sp 6½ by 9. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/9wzwdtthZw Permalink 4:26 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Further, the same applies to “arm” and “hand”. pic.twitter.com/TZO2wuNtU5 Permalink 2:37 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The plot thickens: In Greek leg and foot are also πόδι, In Farsi both پا, but there is a more marked difference in Romance languages (gamba/piede) although pes in Latin can mean both. Permalink 2:31 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Like Phoenician, Aramaic, & Hebrew, the Lebanese lang. still uses the same word (ijr, rgl) for foot and leg in spite of 170 years of (failed) Arabization (foot in Arabic is قدم). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1007356478733410305 Permalink 12:48 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@oneraindrop A complex system has failed to act as expected by its designers, but has instead exhibites behavior that no one expected it to exhibit pic.twitter.com/gkPiDviKMX Permalink 7:17 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@thyagjs An important point from the SITG book by @nntaleb For those who do things, it is harder to talk about what they do. Reality doesn’t care about tawk. It is full of pauses and hesitations. Clear, non-hesitant speech is the domain of non-doers. Permalink 6:36 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 Here’s the most famous nutritionist in America, Walter Willett of Harvard, defending the use of seed oils, saying that new data that says they’re unhealthy isn’t relevant. Good example of why I no longer listen to these people. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/2016/04/13/diet-heart-ramsden-mce-bmj-comments/ Permalink 5:56 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb On the main difference between East Med and West Med (except for Provence) called here “milk of lions”. pic.twitter.com/scFhUxQZ6O Permalink 9:35 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) You cannot separate the Med diet from frequency. 1-FASTING Greeks were vegan 210 days. 2-Meat was eaten at festivals, in Yuge quantities, mostly FAT 3-Breakfast is a recent invention 4-“Dinner”=mostly mezze 5-Byphasic sleep 6-Hill/stairs climbing all the time 7-No seed oil Permalink 8:56 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Main lesson from the retraction (NEJM paper on Med diet): + Medicine is mostly (nonstandard) statistics + Medicine is abt convex dose-response NO expertise in biology/medicine will make up for it. PS- My paper on frequency/convexity in medicine was accepted. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/suvyboy/status/1007279809804857344 Permalink 8:29 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In Northern Phoenicia for the Weekend. Permalink 8:22 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, the real story is that @KarlreMarks was caught plagiarizing, then reacted exactly like a real plagiarist: he followed the maximally dishonorable route, digging then digging more. Permalink 2:53 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A new argument https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/1007028215343394816 Permalink 2:23 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite. Permalink 1:41 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here it is https://twitter.com/EmirChaabane/status/1007155547693633536 Permalink 12:02 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@sergioschloros This expression is recorded by in Homer “The proper meaning of ἀνανεύειν is to express dissent or refusal by throwing back the head, opposed to “κατανεύειν”, the corresponding gesture of assent or permission by nodding and bowing the head” http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.04.0055%3Abook%3D9%3Acommline%3D468 Permalink 10:36 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb “τσου” as the Mediterranean “no”: A sound like “ts” (sucked lip) , coupled with a single nod, meaning “NO” (& a certain familiarity with the interlocutor). J2 Haplogroup countries: Phoenicia, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, Sicily, Calabria, Western Syria. Any other? Permalink 10:30 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I thought I was the only one to call low IQ tawkers low IQ tawkers. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1006833565022031873 Permalink 8:19 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@financequant Wow! Opioids turned out to be addictive. Something we thought known for millennia but was, in fact, cleverly hidden by Big Pharma, probably in collusion with the FDA. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1006891422899949568 Permalink 7:59 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@primalpoly This @Harvard president’s email to alumni defends discrimination against Asian applicants, in the name of promoting ‘diversity’. How will this read in 20 years? http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/06/harvard-begs-to-discriminate.php?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=sw&utm_campaign=sw Permalink 6:08 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, “no” in Maltese, Sicilian, Lebanese, and various other Med languages is “tsk” Permalink 3:18 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Only in Sicily. The same hotel is famous both for housing R. Wagner when he finished Parsifal and for hosting a decisive mafia convention — in addition to being a preferred spot for various improvised and less improvised “meetings”. pic.twitter.com/0tswQH8I04 Permalink 12:55 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #LindyEffect https://twitter.com/MimeticValue/status/1006595643467431936 Permalink 2:07 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L3ayno zghiré ma bi kabbér, L3ayno kbiré ma bi zaghgher. Permalink 2:00 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L zghir ma bi kabbérak w l kbir ma bi zaghghrak. Permalink 11:15 AM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Taxi driver to Malta’s airport: Where are you flying to? Me: Palermo. Driver: vacation? Me: No. Meeting. Silence the rest of the journey. Permalink 1:49 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Interesting. Because it is true. https://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/986737264041578496 Permalink 12:21 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Returnless Risk? pic.twitter.com/ObgzkPbhfJ Permalink 8:28 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 6) To understand the Romans, essential Meds, who shunned doing things themselves but praised builders: “Caesar pontem fecit” means Ceasar *had a bridge built* (by others), not “built a bridge” as usually translated. Tr. into French would be “a fait bâtir un pont” not “a bâti”. Permalink 12:45 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Strange absence of Arabian genes (Nabatean, North & South), though possible flow from Maghrebis. Some Phoenician/Anatolian/Greek. Will increase sample & look at more sophisticated maps but still. pic.twitter.com/5VCaUZMc6k Permalink 2:47 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The main difference is gh is pronounced 3, h with a bar=7, q = 2, x=sh … My only mistery: how did barra/juwwa get to them from Aramaic? Unless @safaitic is right and the Arabs who took the Maghreb spoke a branch of safaitic pic.twitter.com/OXF5J0Ce0c Permalink 1:08 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb He seems to be playing the agency problem of bureaucrats. People w/#SkinInTheGame are more interested in their fridge than remote (or even less remote) geopolitics & willing to settle w/peace as the default preference. Governments & bureaucrats have exact opposite preferences. https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1005795015287767046 Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@JSuchJ “True success is exiting some rat race to modulate one’s activities for peace of mind.” Great life insight from @nntaleb foreword to Ed Thorp’s A Man for All Markets pic.twitter.com/fTcqE88T0T Permalink 4:10 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Amos Tversky, the research partner of Kahneman, remarked that he “merely studied in a systematic way things about behaviour that were already known to advertisers and used-car salesmen”. #Lindy Evil nudgeboys Thaler-Sunstein do the exact opposite. https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/1338695 Permalink 3:53 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Now the mystery: there were a lot of Maltese-Lebanese trading families in Leb: +Abella, Sabella, Mamo, Camilleri, Aquilina, Borg (Borji), Mcallef +SALIBA in both (my mother’s original last name is Ghosn Saliba, not Ghosn) Phoenician practice to trade w/cousins across Med ? Permalink 1:55 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mr President, we shall start the invasion at 1400 hours. https://twitter.com/stevept/status/1005484647688491009 Permalink 4:19 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@trishankkarthik Once you come to #RWRI, you will never see the world the same way again @financequant @nntaleb https://twitter.com/l0bbelt/status/1005560429400264704 Permalink 2:28 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@normonics I like to say: GMO is like everyone in the world crossing the street together at the same time Permalink 1:22 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 5) Another reason there large entities don’t work in the Med, causing a scale problem: you cannot be alpha if you are not free & self-employed (or the boss), an employee of Goldman Sachs is of a lower status than a local doctor. Permalink 11:22 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can tell Maltese is a bit more Arabic than Lebanese: ecclesiatical & nonArabic Semitic terms are often from Latin/Italian whereas Leb uses Aramaic (Ġesù not Yasu3, Eva not 7awwa…) Means Maltese didn’t have these words in their corpus, which must have been Siculo-Arabic. Permalink 11:02 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4) For instance to be Med you need to both disrespect hard work and respect success, exactly the opposite of the “work ethics” & the worship of labor in the non-necessarily Prostestant North. Permalink 9:44 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@Safaitic @nntaleb is on point. Stories of a grand Yemeni-Arab exodus following the collapse of the Marib dam are simply mythology. In no other field are legends taken at such face value. The term “Arab” and “Arabic” were appropriated and reimagined by Islamic-period writers to refer(cont. Permalink 3:00 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Brownian Bridge: Pinning Beginning (i.e., past) and End (i.e., present) and looking at probabilities of what could have happened in between is very, very useful in GENETICS and LINGUISTICS. Even if you don’t have the exact proba, you get the structure. My solution here. pic.twitter.com/qGs50urYrC Permalink 2:11 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Which means the 2aysi( qaysi)-Yamani fights could be infighting, a division that mimics the Byzantine Green-Blue one –the Druze are almost entirely Anatolian, genetically closest to Kurds. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qays–Yaman_rivalry Permalink 1:41 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is (in history textbooks) a story of Peninsular tribes settling into Lebanon (largely from Yemen). But genetics don’t show it: the Yemen story is a fabrication. Now @Safaitic is hinting that these tribes were from the Southern Levant. This can explain linguistic puzzles. https://twitter.com/Safaitic/status/1004991524944449536 Permalink 1:33 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) The French have tried to become Meds for 2000 years. They can’t: except for spots, Germanics speaking a Latin language. Permalink 2:45 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Point is; if you’re not Med, you’ll never understand the Mediterranean. You can spend 31 y in Oxford reading “classics”, all that sh*t, & still understand nothing about the Mediterranean. Now, if you’re not Med, the closest you’ll ever get is via squid ink & Moustaki. Salve. Permalink 2:40 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Malta pic.twitter.com/36QTR8UZMc Permalink 12:58 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@cindyturlevnon كل استاذ مدرسة بعيّط ع تلميذ و بيجبرو يقول نعم غلطان وبيكون عم يمارس تعنيف لغوي. نحنا بطور لڤنن رح نوزّع مناشير توعية للمدارس عن الالفاظ السريانية بلغتنا اللبنانية، كمان مندعي كل بي و ام ما يستخفوا بالإرث الكبير يلي اخدناه من السرياني لغة جدودنا. #TurLevnon pic.twitter.com/GE45AX4C7v Permalink 9:40 AM – 8 Jun 2018

Espen Haug, Krugman, Monsanto, @DylanRatigan, Localism, #RWRI 8, TECHNICAL INCERTO, Powerful Yet Slaves | Twitter

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Looking forward to seeing you all at ICCS 2018! @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @swimdaily @normonics @trishankkarthik @stephen_wolfram @barabasi @ednapasher @cesifoti @C4computation https://t.co/fmHjB1gb39

— Dr. Michael Sagner, MD (@DrMichaelSagner) June 1, 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ The M4 Competition, ended on 31/5, was an Open one, with its most important objective: “to learn to improve f/cing accuracy and advance the field”, in contrast to “horse race” ones, as those organized by Kaggle, aimed at finding winners in a black box. The M4’s findings follow Permalink 1:25 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Brownian Bridge! The best kind of practical problems. https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/1004485090892746754 Permalink 12:58 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Maltese is a language invented by a Levantine who read a lot of Italian novels. https://twitter.com/moraltwittizen/status/1004982233864826881 Permalink 12:22 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Flaneuring bil Lébnéné = “shmm hawa” or, better, “re5iya”, or “2awwas 3ind rabbna” (about men of leisure). https://twitter.com/VincePomal/status/1004980603450781696 Permalink 12:04 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Fl-ajruplan lejn Malta fl-aħħar Permalink 11:21 PM – 7 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Only if negatively correlated with another exposure of higher expected value in absolute terms. In other words, pay for insurance. https://twitter.com/harrynicholls/status/1004573114053906438 Permalink 1:37 AM – 7 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Espen is now doing work in physics. Veteran option traders have a no-nonsense approach to probability. https://twitter.com/eghaug/status/1004381249593577474 Permalink 6:13 PM – 6 Jun 2018

@EGHaug Out flaneuring with @nntaleb in Oslo, long bright days, and always some bright interesting insight from NNT on probabilities and life… pic.twitter.com/Zj4aTgWcmg Permalink 8:15 AM – 6 Jun 2018

@AlgoSlayer Oldie, but a goodie. Featuring @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/czUYVm0Vx6 Permalink 8:04 AM – 6 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Please. Please. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1004033970281955328 Permalink 9:16 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Unpublished 2nd volume of Dynamic Hedging pic.twitter.com/4VsGLpEUuz Permalink 6:35 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Ma bi 7ékkak illa difrak = Your finger, and only your finger, can scratch your itch. [Liberal translation: finger in place of nail] Permalink 4:03 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb LOCALISM explained in Lebanese: Ma bi 7ékkak illa difrak Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Krugman used his bully pulpit to take a cheap shot at @charlesmurray he deemed lower in the social science hierarchy. Murray isn’t my ideal intellecktshual, but @paulkrugman as a BS vendor is no judge of rigor, science, business, finance, ideas, erudition, or anything. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1003393293491802113 Permalink 5:26 PM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Monsanto figured out that calling a group “Academic Reviews” or “Literacy Project” they could promote their junk w/suckers believing the groups are actually “pro-science” -like dictatorships that call themselves “democratic republic” These agents will pay for destroyed careers. https://twitter.com/sustainablepuls/status/1003721048452411392 Permalink 12:57 PM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4 hours left, 6k votes so far. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1003393293491802113 Permalink 10:45 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Should have been for a weekend. A problem from the 2005 AMC https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/DefectiveDie.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/kg7foaI3D1″> pic.twitter.com/kg7foaI3D1 Permalink 9:18 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For years I have been shouting “Delenda Monsanto” to whoever could listen. Looks like my wishes may be finally coming true. Another delenda: Saudi Barbaria Permalink 6:04 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Bayer is ditching the Monsanto name. Predictably, a liability: the most evil firm in history. Now will they also ditch the Monsanto practices: + intimidation of scientists + smear campaigns + lobbying + infiltration of the FDA + promotion of scientism w/jounos “pro-science” etc. https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1003579071417257984 Permalink 4:07 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@raktagulikaa Wow, had no idea of this history in connection with the “olive oil vs butter” and “Europeans borrowing civilization” comments of @nntaleb https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/history-of-milk Permalink 12:27 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb We know, empirically, that @paulkrugman’s opinion is useless taken at face value –practically abt everything. But can he be useful as “reverse indicator”, like traders so bad yet so nonrandom that colleagues imitate them in reverse (i,e. go short if they are bullsish, etc.) ? Permalink 2:49 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My friend @DylanRatigan is running for elections as Democrat, but he has strong localist tendencies. To show that left-right is less meaningful. https://twitter.com/DylanRatigan/status/1003388386881794048 Permalink 2:35 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is not tawk, but Skin in the Game. With @financequant and other members, we trained so far 400 people at less than ½ the tuition for executive education, w/30% scholarships, and our lecktchurs had 4-5 instructors present because it was so much fun. http://www.Realworldrisk.com Permalink 2:15 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My experiment with the 8 cycles of #RWRI proved that, presently > 82% of university costs are to cover metastatic bureaucracies & lobbying real estate developers. In other words you can cut edyukashion costs from $50K to $9K with NO effect. Universities are committing suicide. https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1003091464614809601 Permalink 2:00 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@_pierreblanc The curse of modernity is that we are increasingly populated by a class of people who are better at explaining than understanding, or better at explaining than doing. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life @nntaleb @GaryMarcus #futureofwork pic.twitter.com/7L9zBV4UGu Permalink 12:37 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Lahol yallé baddon yshufo kif lMalté 2arib 3an lghat Sémiyyé (2ul “Sémé” msh “3arabé”). Lézém nmshé warahon. #Localism https://youtu.be/PWVlA4POXvQ via @YouTube Permalink 10:24 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A nice Cretan metaproblem for the morning coffee. Is a liar also necessarily a liar about being a liar? Is a liar who tells you that he is a liar a liar? https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1002884227753480193 Permalink 6:13 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR. If 50% of the work is done by 1% of the people, prove that 80% of the work will be done by 20% of the people, assuming scalability. https://twitter.com/johnjanuszczak/status/1003255986910527489 Permalink 5:48 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4) The Phoenicians were the localists of history, maneuvering across dominant empires by paying for mafia protection. Centralistas are so programmed to think anachronistically in nation-states that they spread the incoherent thesis by @josephinequinn that they didn’t exist. Permalink 4:22 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Those who say it is better not to mess with genetics may be right https://twitter.com/QuantaMagazine/status/1003090256126717952 Permalink 4:18 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb That’s the reason to practice mathematics on a daily basis, especially when you write books & articles. Not because math is directly useful in life, but just to avoid turning into something like @sapinker https://twitter.com/GhassanDahhan/status/1003220452284813312 Permalink 3:38 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@RubenGao “Not everything that happes happens for a reason. But everything that survives survives for a reason” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:20 PM – 2 Jun 2018

@SBakerMD President of Australian Medical Association want Netflix to remove Keto friendly film “Magic Pill” Stupid or Corrupt?? Cast your votes now! pic.twitter.com/oBvEzfczGQ Permalink 4:25 PM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #RWRI 8 THE SELF REFERENCE PROBLEM OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS A Quiz based on a rule offered by @Sarasewda, cc:@normonics @trishankkarthik pic.twitter.com/vPr6vLkBM1 Permalink 2:44 PM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) The naive political “scientists” (& other BS vendors) think superficially, in labels. They want the U.S. to not be a colony of Britain, but want Britain to be a colony of Brussels, & Nebraska to be a colony of Washington, D.C. They don’t get centralization . Permalink 10:20 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) People not trained in modern science are programmed to thing in terms of “left” & “right”, still trapped in a stone-age discourse. They miss on the property of scaling: effect is not invariant to size of autonomous unit. #localism #minorityrule https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@Sarasewda My biggest takeaway. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us. Life looks different now #RWRI #Rule22 @trishankkarthik @nntaleb https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1002954924685217792 Permalink 10:11 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The opposite of fascism isn’t a democratic form of socialism; it’s localism. Permalink 9:27 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The generalized birthday paradox from a @CutTheKnotMath problem pic.twitter.com/EIrVPdDPDv Permalink 7:44 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #RWRI Trivia: the best skills in applied probability are found in quant finance. Discovered that Nick Patterson the wiz kid mathematician of genetics worked at Renaissance when @financequant was a partner there. https://twitter.com/financequant/status/1002544959013171201 Permalink 7:19 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8: a lot of NY https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1002776633454092289 Permalink 6:04 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8 Answered @Shuwen22973519 Q abt error by geneticist @mt_genes trolling in support of some UK classicist w/o understanding the notion of JOINT distributions: if “Most Likely” (max p) subclades map to autosomal cluster, via ~k-mean, then necessarily indicative of origin. https://twitter.com/mt_genes/status/996830049239289856 Permalink 6:02 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) Accepting that some people (“past victims”) should be treated differently in matters of “racism” implies: accepting to have discounted (or waved) penalties for past victims of theft when they themselves commit theft. So many logical inconsistencies in these arguments! Permalink 5:29 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@Learn_lebanese naqqé ḥarf lal ح bel leğğa l’lebanneniyé. #LL Permalink 4:16 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8: high Sharpe ratios are predictive of huge blowups. The more stable the return, the more likely the blowup. Volatile funds lose money; but not as much as nonvolatile ones. pic.twitter.com/aNffPEZDms Permalink 11:45 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8: Lecktchurer talking about how intellectulas yet idiots nudgeboys @r_thaler @CassSunstein increase risk in the system pic.twitter.com/QnPJVevSzu Permalink 9:13 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Looking forward to seeing you all at ICCS 2018! @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @swimdaily @normonics @trishankkarthik @stephen_wolfram @barabasi @ednapasher @cesifoti @C4computation http://www.necsi.edu/events/iccs2018/ Permalink 8:00 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) To establish societal symmetry: The bigotteer needs to be penalized the same as the bigot. The false accuser needs to be penalized as if he committed the crime himself (Hammurabi). etc. Permalink 5:05 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It is RACIST to penalize someone from race A saying something abt someone from race B, but not someone from race B saying something abt someone from race A. It is worse than racist: it breaks societal symmetry. The same applies to gender. Permalink 4:55 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I can understand why some writers (Balzac) were obsessed with printing. Marx was right about the alienation (which he eventually helped increase). Artisans minimize the distance between labor and fruits of labor. pic.twitter.com/P8NdD4FSRF Permalink 4:45 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I wrote in SITG abt artisans seeing their full product, unlike factory workers laboring on a portion of it. There is an immense satisfaction writing a book while controling 100% of the aesthetics,on the final format, as it will look *exactly* on the page. It makes it artisanal. Permalink 4:25 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb OK, The Vol 1 of theTECHNICAL INCERTO, “The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Technical Papers and Commentary” will come out this year (color), thanks to @TuckerMax who manages my STEM ACADEMIC PUBLISHING (contract signed). Writing math on final format is like painting. pic.twitter.com/DKVqP25fb7 Permalink 3:40 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@garyruskin Professor Leemon McHenry’s McHenry’s full paper on the #MonsantoPapers: http://bit.ly/2sBqlZN And his letter to publisher @tandfonline, regarding his paper on the #MonsantoPapers, and its apparent double standard in publishing http://bit.ly/2sp0vsv ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KqLOgSNfO6″> pic.twitter.com/KqLOgSNfO6 Permalink 3:01 PM – 31 May 2018

@DataSciFact New post: Six sigma events Riffing on a line from @nntaleb https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2018/05/31/six-sigma-events/ Permalink 12:46 PM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb I am going on a linguistic trip. Alone, just to tawk & listen to the local language to get inspiration for the Lebanese neo-Phoenician writing system. Permalink 12:29 PM – 31 May 2018

@GuruAnaerobic ‘These findings suggest that during ageing, mitochondria lose the ability to produce energy during maximal efforts bt not when the energetic demand is lower.’ G. Anaerobic – “aging is diminishing tails; retain the ability to generate/withstand extremes” https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jcsm.12313 Permalink 8:23 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb “Nice guy” (“asshole”) is a compliment (insult) when uttered by family member (charlatans). Permalink 7:30 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb Ana raye7 3a Malta la et3allam kif byektbo leghton el-Samiyyé e bi 3isho ka Europiyyé b-légha mitl tab3iitna. Permalink 6:18 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb Friends, where in Malta should one stay? Permalink 5:36 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb Some optimist on the Greco-Turkish fraternity, once they get it that they may have the same lineage. https://twitter.com/ArcheRomaion/status/1001982823555895296 Permalink 6:58 PM – 30 May 2018

@Shuwen22973519 I just uploaded ‘Oinops pontos.docx’ to @academia! http://www.academia.edu/36750456/Oinops_pontos.docx Permalink 6:57 PM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb The success of twitter lies in twitter fights. (An idea of @normonics ) Permalink 5:16 PM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb “If p=np I don’t want to be alive” @trishankkarthik pic.twitter.com/EUMwDnD1Bs Permalink 2:35 PM – 30 May 2018

@trishankkarthik @financequant: A model does not describe its own limitations and risks. @nntaleb #RWRI (I may have butchered it a bit, but you get the idea) pic.twitter.com/keP5DKQBZ9 Permalink 1:04 PM – 30 May 2018

@hagaetc I never imagined that my idols @nntaleb and @kanyewest would pride my wall in one single picture, but then again black swans do occur – scoopdidypoop! pic.twitter.com/IcUDE6V6T1 Permalink 12:15 PM – 30 May 2018

@john_f_hamer “Religion isn’t so much about telling man that there is one God as about preventing man from thinking that he is God.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) @nntaleb @BarbaraRKay @ahaspel @TheJosephRosen Permalink 11:19 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb Thanking @_swanson for the recommendation. Permalink 11:02 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb Italian publisher is in town. pic.twitter.com/53kFaoWT1F Permalink 10:23 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb We are now talking about GMO idiots who don’t get CA. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1001825714738532352 Permalink 7:10 AM – 30 May 2018

@trishankkarthik @nntaleb Rule 110 is universal pic.twitter.com/xSVQ384W3O Permalink 6:58 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb μα μπα3ρεφ… μιμκεν μπασ λεζεμ νγαυυερ καμμ σηαγλε https://twitter.com/LaikiEksixroni1/status/1001778854187462656 Permalink 4:24 AM – 30 May 2018

@EJSMD Recall, when Public Health initiatives fail, they can fail in spectacular fashion. —low fat diet & obesity crisis —chronic pain Rx & opioid crisis —#EHR, metrics & MD burnout Central health planners need #skininthegame @nntaleb @afrakt @aaronecarroll https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/upshot/it-saves-lives-it-can-save-money-so-why-arent-we-spending-more-on-public-health.html ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EKtXwcc7ZS”> pic.twitter.com/EKtXwcc7ZS Permalink 4:15 AM – 30 May 2018

@LIHF_Living Finished this last night.. Before reading @nntaleb I thought I was alone and going insane. After reading, I was comforted by the fact that there are at least 2 nutters in the world that think alike, and a namesake at that! pic.twitter.com/GGrXIRHHSi Permalink 11:08 PM – 29 May 2018

@nntaleb You can control people. You can’t control information. People are upset over the ban, much, much more than the arrest. The more you stifle information, the louder it gets. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1001427174472208384 Permalink 4:42 AM – 29 May 2018

@nntaleb Fi shi ismo AERAL INFLUENCE: lamma legtein byen7eko 7add ba3don, bisouro byeshbaho naghmet ba3don: lfrensewé 3indo l “r” mitl el Ilmané, l3ibrani mitl l Ilmané. L bayruté mitl l Tilyéné naghméto (wl Yunéné): lamma ne7ké Tiliyéné ma 3inna lahjé awiyyé. Permalink 3:56 AM – 29 May 2018

@ole_b_peters What can I say? Thank you for spreading the word, @nntaleb. I’m fully aware it sounds unbelievable, and I suppose that’s why economics journals haven’t yet published it. Our approach right now: demonstrate scientific superiority of the alternative formalism. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1001136256900829184 Permalink 10:57 AM – 28 May 2018

Jordan Peterson, Blitzer, Gabish, EDUCATION, Monsanto, Daniel Dennet, Cannibalism, Rowling, Romer, Fisk, Douma | Twitter

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@davidboxenhorn Skin in the gamehttps://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/989980601653612544 Permalink 3:07 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Basically those who don’t know anything about Syria, like @jordanbpeterson, shd STFU Permalink 2:54 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I think I am completely done with @jordanbpeterson. Gave him the benefit of the doubt with Monsanto and other nonsense. This does it. Meanwhile let’s see what we get from @Rootclaim’s rigorous hypothesis testing.https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/989970697966571521 Permalink 2:46 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@VergilDen #Bigoteering and #Pedophrasty in one tweethttps://twitter.com/doechancellor/status/989728932772499457 Permalink 2:05 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Wolf Blitzer, a despicable man. Very despicable. To him we need to worry that stopping the shelling in Yemen would lead to a loss of jobs in weapons manufacturing.https://twitter.com/IntheNow_tweet/status/989942263563239425 Permalink 1:37 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Thanks to Hillarists, the “left” now likes militarism, interventionism, censorship, a police state, and mccarthyism.https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/989888000233533440 Permalink 10:40 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Now, in a modern framework, there is no justification for the asymmetry. Except one needs to stay vigilant abt obsessive weirdos. Permalink 8:35 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb DECISION THEORY DUJOUR Very rational to react more to negative than positive comments,for the same reason one shd react more to losses than profits: RUIN AVERSION Someone who hates you can kill you, so in a physical environment the emotiononal asymmetry is good risk management Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@KarenSweet9 “When a town holds the remnants of an ancient language, one needs to look for vestiges of an ancient practice.” Wow. @nntaleb nails it #insight #SITG #VCBookClub Permalink 8:12 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@Chad_Urban Those of us @ACBACharleston are trying to change the higher ed paradigm. Thankfully, we’re getting some press recognition too on outlets like @gardenandgun and @ThisOldHouse http://gardenandgun.com/feature/a-class-by-itself/ https://www.thisoldhouse.com/watch/demo-time-charleston-houses-2018 Permalink 6:39 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@jordantpine Great insight from @nntaleb’s #SkinInTheGame: “Reading a history book, without putting its events in perspective, offers a similar bias to reading an account of life in New York seen from an emergency room at Bellevue Hospital.” Permalink 4:52 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I have changed the spelling to Gabish, pronounced halfway between a Semitic qof & a Greek hard “g”. Gabish?https://twitter.com/jd_hoggg/status/989595228486164480 Permalink 3:40 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@MicheKilloran “You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment” #SkinInTheGame #SITG #VCBookClub @nntaleb Permalink 2:46 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@thalesians Deeply saddened and shocked by the arrest in Iran of @thalesians founder Paul @bilokon’s @imperialcollege PhD supervisor the prominent computer scientist and mathematician Abbas Edalat. #FreeAbbasEdalat pic.twitter.com/S5g8hrcVbl Permalink 12:36 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@financequant If you come to the Real World Risk Institute, this is one if the insights you will learn. That and why talking about volatility often makes no sense at all.https://twitter.com/datascifact/status/989546588233256960 Permalink 9:53 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Random arithmetic progressions #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/9HjaDuR5De Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 10 In #Antifragile I document the confusion Business =>Technology => Science, far far far far more frequent than the reverse. Problem is that academic, not practitioners, write the books. Permalink 8:07 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 9) Remember that the “University” system for this “liberal education” (trivium/quadrivium) was historically closely associated with, and supervised by, the Church. Technical education was left to free thinkers. Permalink 7:00 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 8) The idea that liberal education makes free thinkers is about the greatest myth: empirically, liberal education creates the exact opposite of “thinkers” and “free”: indoctrinated and slaves.https://twitter.com/Plato4Now/status/989487426639990785 Permalink 6:27 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 7) Finally, we can split education: + Taught by nonskininthegame people (math, poetry, etc.) + Taught by skininthegame people (engineering, medicine, belly dancing, plumbing, finance, law, burglarizing, computer “science”, accounting, …) In SEPARATE institutions. Permalink 6:06 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 6) The educational model is now imploding as the only thing people seem to learn at colleges is ideology by losers who became professors because they aren’t good enough to create things & got together to BS in a citation ring #RentSeekers (not just in economics, but everywhere) Permalink 5:47 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 5b) The French solved the problem with knowledge exams for educators (“aggregation”); you never end up having people judged solely by peers (See #SkininTheGame ). (Same problems: “know economics” is interpreted as knowing theories by economists, not economic facts). Permalink 5:42 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 5a) The problem of the peer review system is selecting professors on theories abt subject never checked for basic knowledge of subject. It is common for people to know the “post colonial gender theory” of Levant, teach it, but never the actual facts. Permalink 5:39 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 4) So we need to separate “things to learn to be civilized” and “things you learn to do things” with separate institutions. The only overlap I could find was mathematics, though not a strong argument since applied math is a v. different animal. Permalink 5:37 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 3) The Anglo-Saxon world conflated the two, with aristocrat-envy: + Education to be civilized. (Literature, philosophy, poetry, abstract math, history, stamp collecting, etc.) + Education to learn to do things. (Engineering, medicine, accounting, law, belly dancing, plumbing) Permalink 5:33 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) For instance, mathematics as taught for “liberal” education, was theoretical mind exercise. Euclid’s theorem was never used in building. Meanwhile builders (parts of guilds with trade secrets) were using their own heuristic, richer, geometry. (see #Antifragile) Permalink 5:30 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb EDUCATION. Distilling the conversation with @bryan_caplan hosted by @tylercowen 1) There has been a traditional separation between: + “liberal education” for free men, (liber), who didn’t work for a living, & +”technical education”, for those who labor. Permalink 5:28 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb But @HooverInst has low ethical standarda; it kept @henryimiller who was fired from Forbes for putting articles written by Monsanto— he “wrote” 5 articles smearing me.https://twitter.com/markvirag/status/989467787436453890 Permalink 4:49 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A think tank fellow had the discipline to overcome my insults to his profession while reviewing my book.https://www.city-journal.org/html/ante-15856.html Permalink 4:25 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Can someone explain what’s going on? Thanks.https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/989184815340535808 Permalink 1:53 PM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Mark Lynas’ typical charlatan responses. His friend Henry I. Miller was fired from Forbes as his comments were written by Monsanto (including attacks on yours truly). Monsanto papers… tons of documents: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/newly-released-monsanto-papers-add-to-questions-of_us_597fc800e4b0d187a5968fbf https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/989187323211452416 Permalink 10:37 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@financequant If this doesn’t help you understand p-hacking then you’re beyond hope.https://twitter.com/1962Kiser/status/989181933207732224 Permalink 10:20 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb If there is such as thing as Monsanto derangement, why did Monsanto send 1200 letters after my PP paper? Why does Monsanto fund smear campaigns? Why did Monsanto pay “scientists” to write articles abt Glyphosate? Have you seen the Monsanto papers?https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/989160126824308736 Permalink 9:23 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb KELLY CRITERION My lecktchur notes to students. Thanks to @ole_b_peters who showed how stoooooopid decision theorists have been not getting time vs/ ensemble returns. pic.twitter.com/YflQZF4mUB Permalink 8:20 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb CLUSTERING You can detect a shill (such as the charlatan @mark_lynas) using the following method: there is a cluster of people who are both GMO & glyphosate advocates, when the distribution of advocacy shld be somewhat random. What do the 2 have in common? Monsanto.https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/936347998333865985 Permalink 7:35 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “Taboo fatigue”https://twitter.com/normonics/status/988519169074319362 Permalink 6:01 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@PaleoPhil And here is Nassim on the past interchangeability of blue and green:https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/932046776135311360 Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This is from Reich(2018): something about splicing I don’t get. Does it mean one only inherits clusters of DNA? Otherwise to exclude an ancestor would be very low probability. Is this 47+71 an average or a stochastic quantity? cc: @trishankkarthik also noticed. pic.twitter.com/286p1x5hAH Permalink 4:59 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb @danieldennett reminds me of the IYI Arabists secularists in Syria & Iraq who, in 1934, predicted that religion (particularly Islam) would be a thing of the past by 1960; then in 1960, predicted that it would be gone by 1990, then again before Sept 11, predicted… Permalink 3:18 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Finally, after all these years, a compliment.https://twitter.com/atakanyz/status/988894548314206208 Permalink 2:51 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Trying to speak Turkish in preparation for my visit to Dunya Guzelihttps://youtu.be/x3ublVoNog0 Permalink 1:30 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@alxpr1c3 it was only a matter of time – https://youtu.be/uEhqXjlCsDQ @nntaleb Permalink 12:42 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb IYI @danieldennet’s remark is the best advertising for John Gray’s new book.https://www.amazon.com/Seven-Types-Atheism-John-Gray/dp/0374261091/ref=la_B000AQ0VXU_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1524586923&sr=1-1 Permalink 9:23 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Margaritas ante porcos*. *Pearls before swine.https://twitter.com/danieldennett/status/988799650156163079 Permalink 8:33 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@MaxBlumenthal The author of this desperate smear job is so malicious he cited a literal blacklist by a neocon think tank accusing every public figure who has ever given an interview to RT — all 2326 of them — of being “useful idiots” https://twitter.com/maxblumenthal/status/930168593320415232?s=21 https://twitter.com/chrisdyork/status/988720747928588289 Permalink 7:40 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@ole_b_peters What will happen in this experiment? https://osf.io/8t25b/ Will people switch between the specific utility functions EE predicts or won’t they, as EUT predicts? What would be a fair interpretation? @rorysutherland @nntaleb @R_Thaler please guess, comment, retweet. Permalink 7:05 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@ToryAnarchist Don’t miss @DrGeneCallahan’s review of @nntaleb.https://twitter.com/modagejournal/status/988756314926043136 Permalink 5:57 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@thackerpd I love how #FOIA emails keep uncovering more and more “independent” #GMO scientists who, oddly enough, are working with #monsanto @hiltzikmhttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/988499832506535938 Permalink 5:55 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 3) Knowledge entails seeing signal from noise. You don’t get that with promiscuous reading. Permalink 5:05 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The Indians get the idea of rigor!http://www.opindia.com/2018/04/economists-bullshit-for-a-living-nn-taleb-gives-kaushik-basu-a-lesson-on-skin-in-the-game/ Permalink 4:38 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 1) Today is #BookDay. Remember The opposite of reading is not not reading, but reading something like @NewYorker (& books in its style) 2) Critical reasoning, the ability to spot logical inconsistencies, degrades w/promiscuous reading. Choose carefully and read little. Permalink 4:33 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@ggreenwald In Yemen today, the Saudis bombed a wedding, killing at least 20 people, including the bride. They killed “mostly women and children.” The US & UK – who some believe do humanitarian interventions – both play vital roles in the Saudi destruction of Yemenhttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/yemen-airstrike-wedding-party-killed-injured-bani-qayis-saudi-coalition-latest-updates-a8317826.html Permalink 4:22 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ Our paper http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/metrics?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889 has surpassed 12,425 views/downloads in PLOS ONE. Its finding “the most accurate ML method was worse than then least accurate statistical one” was not contested expect by only one of the several hundred tweets/retweets received. Permalink 12:59 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Always apologize, except when you’ve done something wrong.https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/988229182034362368 Permalink 6:47 PM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) Unless the person is a risk taker, the higher up in any organization, the more you can dispense with him/her. If the nonentrepreneur CEO of [name your company] did not exist, the world would be the same. Or better. Permalink 3:24 PM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I woke with this conclusion from Skin in the Game: 1) Things work thanks to a handful of people; the rest operates by situational imitation, narrow mimicry, and semi-conscious role-playing. Permalink 3:19 PM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Things are easier if you call it Western Eurasia, as the scientific name in genetics.https://twitter.com/GreenPlusAnE/status/988118541399445504 Permalink 11:45 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Actually sub-imbecile @booksandbooze_ doesn’t get that defending grandmother ag Sunstein-style psycholophasters is not because “conservative” but because one prefers nonBS to BS., or prefers what works (w/high STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE) to what fails. This is called SCIENTIFIC. Permalink 9:11 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, who is attacking “science” and “experts”?https://twitter.com/booksandbooze_/status/988051858701914112 Permalink 6:52 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Under the glorious Third Republic, the French gov’s share was 9% of GDP. Today it is ~60% 1 in 12 workers are now civil servants. pic.twitter.com/5NUcZMRoQx Permalink 5:19 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Correction: I said somewhere that the French National Assembly was today mostly composed of professional politicians/bureaucrats’lawyers (the usual IYIs). The rate is about 40%.http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/06/26/quelles-professions-exercent-nos-deputes_5151288_4355770.html Permalink 3:50 PM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Do you think the Russians interfered in the elections in Saudi Arabia? Permalink 1:51 PM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Reciting Hammurabi in Akkadian while writing Skin in the Game https://www.dropbox.com/s/prgh5gsxj6ghc3m/hammurabi.mp3?dl=0 https://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/987727336555581440 Permalink 9:30 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb It takes bet 45 minutes & a week to convince a smart person that GMOs are an intellectual fraud, not science but scientism, that supporters are not “skeptics” but shills, etc. Takes only 30 seconds to convince a computer scientist. Just mention P/NP and they get it instantly. Permalink 7:30 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS Friends, scholarships are available for the 8th program May 28-June 1st. Full scholarships are available for women, Syrian students, & unemployed people -please mail a (short) CV http://realworldrisk.com Permalink 7:13 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In fact I tend to block people who give unsollicited advice, make logical mistakes, or represent Monsanto/Saudi Barbaria, rarely those who attack me. Permalink 6:22 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The thing is, I enjoy Twitter fights & other public brawls. I always open Twitter with the anticipation one has facing a box of Christmas goodies. If you are scared of opening Twitter, you are doing something wrong.https://twitter.com/CHSommers/status/987495738073583617 Permalink 5:42 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@ggreenwald Things that are *not* press freedom attacks: — Trump tweeting juvenile insults about TV stars. Things that *are* press freedom attacks: — Obama & Trump DOJ prosecuting sources under Espionage Act — DNC suing WikiLeaks for *publishing* docs:https://theintercept.com/2018/04/20/the-dncs-lawsuit-against-wikileaks-poses-a-serious-threat-to-press-freedom/ Permalink 5:17 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) People using such services as @23andMe me for autosomal DNA get percentages (23% this, 10% that, etc.) This is BS: you need to look at INDEPENDENT categories, as in the map above, and look at distance from clusters. Permalink 4:51 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Speculation Du Jour: Genetic distance on PCA Distance on PCA, when small, does not reflect difference in traits, only the rate of inbreeding from period >the Bronze age. When large, disproportional difference in traits. A better measure is differential entropy. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/dsjUs1iEmL Permalink 4:46 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) In a rational society, pedophrasty should be a powerful tag, at par with “racism” and “sexism” pic.twitter.com/nlTOal9f1E Permalink 4:38 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 1) Pedophrasty is a great way to get people to suspend judgment. So powerful it has to be used by scammers.https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/987442108939284481 Permalink 4:37 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@surreallyno After 236 pages of thought-provoking chapters, the Epilogue is remarkably simple. And powerful. Great book, Nassim Taleb @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/VpxO6BCwDM Permalink 1:04 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@howisthewater The Northern and Western European tradition needed to absorb Rome into their linear classics narrative as otherwise they would need to accept that their progenitors were defeated, butchered, and enslaved by the war machine of the Roman Republic en masse. Permalink 12:10 PM – 20 Apr 2018

@oldlevantine L-ligga l-qurayciyye ma jtééxit minna laxaala. L-muçassassét l-Maruniyyé qilla, min l-qniisé lal-batraqiyyé larr-rahbanéét lal-madééris bi-rimmita, hinné lli ÿawrabo c-caÿb. ss-suusé minna w fiina. The barbarians aren’t at the gate; they ARE the gatekeepers, from the Patriarch on Permalink 12:02 PM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Why anything (like academia) that escapes evolutionary selection (survival) will rot. Like economics and this charlatan @kaushikcbasu.https://medium.com/incerto/what-do-i-mean-by-skin-in-the-game-my-own-version-cc858dc73260 Permalink 11:51 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Charlatans & economists use logical flaw: because a pilot is expert, they are experts. But Pilots are selected via skin-in-the-game mechanisms. Plumbers, dancers, dentists, mathematicians, snipers, pastry chefs are experts. Not this @kaushikcbasu. Economists BS for a living.https://twitter.com/kaushikcbasu/status/987179168600350720 Permalink 11:48 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “Mr. Wegert and Mr. Landmesser: People, Numbers and the Tipping Point” by Predrag Brajovichttps://medium.com/@PredragBrajovic/mr-wegert-and-mr-landmesser-people-numbers-and-the-tipping-point-d66848dc9578 Permalink 9:49 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Map is wrong. Berytus spoke Latin (not just Greek), the coastal towns were Hellenic.https://twitter.com/onlmaps/status/986889895871426560 Permalink 9:12 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Where I discover that Benjamin Ferensz and I have been sharing the same Calabrese barbers for 25 years. He is about to turn 100 and speaks Italian! He actually jokes in Italian. pic.twitter.com/Rn8C2VmcA2 Permalink 8:31 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb What the Mary Beards anachronistic BS vendors are confused abt: the genetic distance SouthMed-Roman was a fraction of Brit-Roman. So, if anything, the Brits would have been the “ethnics”. Reich: North Africans (S. Meds) are ecologically WestEurasians.https://twitter.com/2trad4u/status/987334661411082240 Permalink 7:37 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) You do not build political systems based on wishful thinking (s.a. lets “eliminate” corruption). You build systems ROBUST to the assumption that humans are flawed, self-serving, & prone to suckerdom (let’s make sure corruption/lobbying/thinkthanking don’t have a big payoff).https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/987063810379919361 Permalink 6:59 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it, our precautionary principle page & the computational class for GMOs. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/x2XBpUwbcv”> pic.twitter.com/x2XBpUwbcv Permalink 5:16 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@ektrit HISTORY Being a history buff, and a practicing Christian Orthodox, I could not match the history of the Church and the official European histories. I owe it to @nntaleb to finally understand that 19th-20th century historians simply made RETROACTIVE decisions about 10th century. Permalink 4:24 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb If you want an elementary class on HOW TO NOT THINK CRITICALLY: A GUIDE ON CIRCULAR REASONING & BS VENDING, read this fellow @ChrisDYork Why this degradation of reasoning abilities in 2018, not 218? Adverse selection: only rejects become journalists, a recent profession.https://twitter.com/ChrisDYork/status/986865853693087744 Permalink 4:21 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb You can see Monsanto bribing educators to promote their “science” on social media. By some coincidence the same ones who tried a character assassination on yours truly. Monsanto worked hard to make people believe that SCIENTISM = SCIENCEhttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/987090232351735813 Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ There were a lot of tweets, retweets, likes and criticisms for our PLOS ONE paper http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/metrics?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889 with three major ones: 1. The time series were too short 2. They were too noisy 3. There were no explanatory variables to support forecasting Permalink 12:59 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This is called cannibalism. Managers of the bank get bonuses, but bank pays fine to the government… and banks are stopped out by the government. The managers should be paying the fines. #skininthegame #RobertRubinTradehttps://nyti.ms/2vpkYRK Permalink 5:13 PM – 19 Apr 2018

@robertwjordway “…the vast majority of the exercise “science” that is being conducted in universities is complete BS” -@CoachRippetoe, @SS_strength. I think @nntaleb would extend this to several other domains… #startingstrength pic.twitter.com/iSS46yr4XL Permalink 4:46 PM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In a centralized system, it takes very, very little money to control government. I am not surprised to see how little money lobbyists make compared to the control they exert over Yuuuge decisions. #localism pic.twitter.com/wUMNKbK6Ss Permalink 1:22 PM – 19 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Inheriting inequality https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/InheritingInequality.shtml #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3Icfjb3eLt”> pic.twitter.com/3Icfjb3eLt Permalink 10:16 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A year and a half later, nobody has yet provided data about Syrian casualties and “genocide”.https://medium.com/opacity/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd Permalink 9:59 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A monoculture (such as the one we have in Saudi Barbaria financed lobbies) will produce logical inconsistencies. pic.twitter.com/v33hXvruJP Permalink 9:37 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Indeed JK Rowling is an insult to logical inference. pic.twitter.com/CW4E9HPCYc Permalink 9:34 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/986977224883568640?s=21 Permalink 8:12 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb My friend Guru is half subsaharan African. Like many SSA he doesn’t like the notion of racism to be diluted by selfserving virtue merchants to the point of lack of effectiveness: its true victims will be first to pay the price.https://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/986926056258068480 Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “ In 2015, I asked where to get the style and never got a reply from Wolfram. “ Who are you bullsh**ing? Permalink 7:38 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The Heuristics and Biases tradition does not need this loss aversion stuff (complicated for tail events/dynamics). Its main subject is errors of judgment facing uncertain events: their catalogue works well for non-tails. Permalink 5:44 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@RandPaul I ran for office to put a stop to Washington’s out-of-control spending! Today, I introduced my “Penny Plan” federal budget that will balance within five years.https://youtu.be/8Ti0BmGhDNY Permalink 5:34 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb @CutTheKnotMath Maestro, do you known where/if this Norm inequality has been proved? pic.twitter.com/GSEFJ4McJt Permalink 3:17 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb DISCUSSION THREAD: Heart Attack Rate for Sprinters Friends, looking for data/papers/other on heart attacks by sprinters vs Marathon runners. Needs to be age-adjusted, properly controlled, etc. cc:@GuruAnaerobic @drjasonfung @trishankkarthik Permalink 2:31 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The type of thing we watch for when we write papers and articles. Ms @juliamacfarlane make sure you read the ethics guidelines before discussing @KarlreMarks pic.twitter.com/Tiou7VEuoq Permalink 2:19 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Notice plagiarist @KarlreMarks uses “he is so eager for intellectual validation”, a sentence that applies everywhere: a nonplagiarist would not have tried something of the sort, rather: sorry I didn’t notice, it is coincidental, etc. Step 2: they downplay plagiarism… Permalink 2:13 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb How every plagiarist respondshttps://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/986711038157520896 Permalink 2:03 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Turns out clown @KarlreMarks is also a plagiarist.https://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/986506998375157761 Permalink 1:22 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) Further, @paulmromer, answers on both sides could have been lost in spam folders; it is unrigorous to generalize from 1 piece of correspondence. (I for my part have never had an inquiry w/ them that went unanswered). But using it part of rant over private vs public… Permalink 7:38 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Mr @paulmromer, your rant bashing Mathematica is BS: +You misrepresent the reaction of @WolframResearch (they replied) +Offensive to users like myself +Strange for an economist to diss for profit closed systems (incentives?) +You don’t get mathematical tinkering/explorationhttps://twitter.com/paulmromer/status/985280552440909824 Permalink 7:10 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile, to be constructive, I recommend @confusezeus and @janinedigi & others in the verbalistic business enroll in a class of critical thinking where the empirical methods of evidence weighting by @Rootclaim are taught.https://philosophy169.wordpress.com Permalink 6:17 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Training Bicyclists on a Mountain Road https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/AfterJamesBond.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KusUwfchUM”> pic.twitter.com/KusUwfchUM Permalink 5:18 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This systematic approach by @Rootclaim (or something of the type) is the only chance we have to use rigor in analysis. As a probabilist I am proud to see my field lead to some clarity. Here is the analysis of the previous chemical event.https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-on-april-4-2017-18448 Permalink 4:22 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@rory_yeomans Syria is the end point of a journalistic process which began during the Yugoslav conflicts of the 1990s. Make the complex simple and imply any journalist/academic or analyst who has a different insight is an apologist or acting in bad faith. Repeat. Rinse. pic.twitter.com/z065G4cMZz Permalink 3:53 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Information gains from attempts to repress it. I was neutral to info by Robert Fisk but not neutral to attempts to smear him. The more hyperactivity & anger against him, the more likely his info to be true… #Antifragile Permalink 2:18 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@LHMMacKenzie Truth really is stranger than fiction. Accusing an acclaimed journalist of assisting in a war crime based on the premise of him reporting a contrasting perspective. 2018 feels more like 1984. Permalink 2:17 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb So @janinedigi, you want Robert Fisk to be judged for war crimes for reporting on events, in a way that contradicts your priors? Stalinism enforced by people disguized as journalists?https://twitter.com/janinedigi/status/985955195589971969 Permalink 1:25 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A Simple Integral of a Peculiar Functrion. Practically no integration https://www.cut-the-knot.org/proofs/SimpleIntegralWithASpecialFunction.shtml #FigureThat #math #algebra #calculus ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/9SMVIdC11x”> pic.twitter.com/9SMVIdC11x Permalink 9:33 AM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In Skin in the Game: …risk aversion, or something even more foolish, “loss aversion” pic.twitter.com/u6s83iDKKt Permalink 3:46 AM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Ha!!!https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/986186324884541440 Permalink 3:23 AM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “The Corruption of Evidence Based Medicine — Killing for Profit” by @drjasonfunghttps://medium.com/@drjasonfung/the-corruption-of-evidence-based-medicine-killing-for-profit-41f2812b8704 Permalink 2:52 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Enmity can flip twice; friendship only once. Permalink 2:17 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Enmity can reverse twice, friendship only once. Permalink 2:05 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb هيدا منوا الحرف العبري بس الحرف الارامي-كنعاني. اهين الواحد يكتببوا من الحرف العربي Permalink 12:02 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb דלאלת אל חאירינ כתב בל–ערבי, בלכצ אלעבריhttps://twitter.com/bdaiwi_historia/status/985280646493941760 Permalink 11:53 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@widespreadhaze Robert Fisk reporting from the clinic in Douma at which the victims of an alleged CW attack were filmed. There was no CW attack, the victims were suffering from hypoxia due dust inhalation. Please RT:http://podcasts.spiritradio.ie/robert-fisk-from-douma-syria/ Permalink 11:25 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@Wilkmaster I trust Fisk 100x more than Boris and May on this (Beware though: The jihadis gas captives so you do/will have some Sarin-affected kiddos. Poor little things) pic.twitter.com/PpdoykkeF5 Permalink 9:16 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A preliminary glossary of counteraccusations, to fend of accusatory propaganda such as “racist” in situations where it is not warranted, and similar matters. pic.twitter.com/EU4sDFQbvy Permalink 8:06 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Given the probability of two balls being of the same color. How many are there of each color? https://twitter.com/gregminshall/status/985792358720724992 #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hNz9gL3ZEW”> pic.twitter.com/hNz9gL3ZEW Permalink 6:11 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@WeAreLebanon A sunny fresh day from #Beirut By @hasnafrangieh #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/gtrk18PUUv Permalink 2:32 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid Hype Vs Reality: How accurate are AI/ML methods beyond image, sound and text recognition? It all depends on the type of application and the four factors shown in the photo taken from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eWJaoUYN3A”> pic.twitter.com/eWJaoUYN3A Permalink 1:15 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb My paper on p value hacking was accepted in a journal. I was told the math was peer-reviewed to be OK but that it has to have an explanatory section simple enough that “even a statistitian” can understand. Any comment? https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rH8aM0e7pM”> pic.twitter.com/rH8aM0e7pM Permalink 3:40 PM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Espen is the most Independent Yet Rigorous (IYR) thinker I’ve had the privilege to work with. He moved from option trading to math finance to quantum mechanics/statistical physics.https://twitter.com/EGHaug/status/985646350372098050 Permalink 3:33 PM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb One byproduct of inequality: socially confident scholars who didn’t care abt their reputation: Wittgenstein, B. Russell, Darwin (mostly Erasmus), Galton, De Broglie, etc. I’ve never met any scholar who, like Wittgenstein, didn’t give a flying f**ck abt his/her standing. Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Apr 2018

@SimnaniIqbals Jeffry D Sachs said in two minutes all that is to say about Syria. Trump’s initial instincts were right, but then he listened to the establishment. Worth clicking.https://twitter.com/markweisbrot/status/984525820621357056?s=21 Permalink 11:52 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 4) A powerful one would be “Nabothizing”, as Naboth was the victim of false accusation by Jezebel, or something of the sort. (Incidentally my real family name is Naboth; Taleb Nabout was my gr-gr-gr-gr-gr-grndfather) but the Leb state cut off Nabout in 1923 to simplifity.) Permalink 9:50 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@_benoux_ 1) Some notes on the issue The meaning of words evolve by those who control the narrative, but they can’t control Lindy effect of time. A sophist used to mean “wise” payed by powerful people. Now it’s the opposite. Pharisee was a title of superior sanctity. Now it’s an insult. Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 3) If you devalue words like “racism” or “chauvinism” you will end up harming the true victims. Calling someone “Hitler” for trivial reasons is an insult to the real victims of Hitler.https://twitter.com/AndBeyond_N/status/985537088929058818 Permalink 8:17 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) The idea is that if someone accuses you of something, you spend your time explaining why you are not what you are being accused of. Instead, fire back with a worse accusation, so it is the accuser who now has to defend himself… Permalink 8:09 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) We BADLY need such word and make it as SEVERE as the accusation itself -a first step towards penalty. Recall that in Babylon a false accusation was punished as if the accuser committed the crime. Permalink 7:29 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb We need a word to summarize such INTERVENTIONISTA BS, the fallacy of looking at “dictators” without looking at the OTHER SIDE.https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/985517879524319232 Permalink 7:22 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath For the very beginners https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/TwoBallsOutOfFour.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PLJhr4QodF”> pic.twitter.com/PLJhr4QodF Permalink 7:21 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb We need a word for the misuse of the accusation of “racism” or “chauvinism” to exploit the power of such label in situations where the accusation is not warranted. Accuser: “This is racist” Answer: “This is the xxxxxx fallacy (or fraud)” GraecoLatin Words are powerful. Permalink 7:20 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@onlmaps Demographics of the Aegean Sea and its Surroundings around 1919,… http://dlvr.it/QPbSN7 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yjQsmg8sl4″> pic.twitter.com/yjQsmg8sl4 Permalink 4:06 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Delenda Goldman Sachshttps://twitter.com/jay7yagi/status/985397595802619909 Permalink 2:15 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@medialens From the School of Liberal Humanitarian Intervention, Andrew Rawnsley bemoans that the West is ‘guilty of failing to act’ in Syria. No mention of the CIA spending $1 billion per year, arming and training ‘rebels’. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/lawmakers-move-to-curb-1-billion-cia-program-to-train-syrian-rebels/2015/06/12/b0f45a9e-1114-11e5-adec-e82f8395c032_story.html?utm_term=.4b71666d2438 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/D8LqV2X4dL”> pic.twitter.com/D8LqV2X4dL Permalink 12:26 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@thebeatthatmy @nntaleb circa 2015. Rereading old knowledge in times of stress. Спасибо. pic.twitter.com/j11ScsvAVq Permalink 7:56 PM – 14 Apr 2018

@nntaleb How about Epipedidexation? A single word you can use in a debate to fend off an accusation with another one. “You are supporting a baby-killer” Answer: “This is shoddy epipedidexation!” Any better word? Permalink 1:47 PM – 14 Apr 2018

@nntaleb We are maximally vulnerable to pictures of suffering children. Hence manipulation: beggars who rent children, PR firms who stage Syria things, etc. An accusation of “supporting baby killers” is defenseless. Unless we find a name for this shoddy manipulation. Pueri…? Ideas?https://twitter.com/jadinho123/status/984918030017875968 Permalink 12:39 PM – 14 Apr 2018

@catoletters Father Daniel in Syria: “There Never Was a Popular Uprising in Syria”https://www.sott.net/article/354637-Sott-net-Interview-with-Father-Daniel-in-Syria-There-Never-Was-a-Popular-Uprising-in-Syria Permalink 12:15 PM – 14 Apr 2018

Bureaucracy, Cliff Asness, Dictator, Monsanto, Boltan, Wolfram, Tillerson, Genealogy, Pi Day, Pompeo | Twitter

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@nntaleb On a long flight to Tbilisi, a new book that opens the new science. pic.twitter.com/BUOcIL2tTA Permalink 12:16 PM – 28 Mar 2018

@LorenzTrader “Bureaucracy is a construction by which a person is conveniently separated from the consequences of his/her actions.” @nntaleb #SkinInTheGame pic.twitter.com/oOp9ZCpY14 Permalink 11:38 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@thackerpd I took exact measures of that depth here: Flacking for #GMOs How the Biotech Industry Cultivates Positive Media—and Discourages Criticism http://progressive.org/magazine/how-the-biotech-industry-cultivates-positive-media/ One of the reporters, @savortooth, has since inserted his nose even further up academic tuchus Permalink 7:14 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb L’7ayét wa2fét 3izz Permalink 7:11 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb On a scale of 0 to 100, paternity tests count as 99.99 and written/oral history count for .01. Apply that to populations. That’s plain stat/probability. We are seeing science in action. @iosif_lazaridishttps://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/978982852514770944 Permalink 6:18 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Book reviewers now have skin in the game: they are now unaware that their review can be turned into a test of reading comprehension –SAT style. For instance you can gauge @EasterbrookG’s reading comprehension level from this.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/944284554168291330 Permalink 5:13 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb It is the opposite of: religions avoiding to pronounce some holy words spelled out in full on the page. There is a demarcation between the holy and the profane, or the more or less holy and the profane. Permalink 4:33 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Aesthetics. I don’t like to see bulls**t fully spelled on a page, though I don’t mind seeing it on a screen.https://twitter.com/Javermas/status/978866618523639808 Permalink 3:43 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@axgry .@nntaleb is this what you mean by “skin in the game” ?https://twitter.com/BIUK/status/978587443069767680 Permalink 2:26 PM – 27 Mar 2018

@sharbatanu A packed hall listened to Mikhail Gromov quote Nassim Nicholas Taleb as “If you hear a ‘prominent’ economist using the word ‘equilibrium’ or ‘normal distribution’, just put a rat down his shirt” pic.twitter.com/YD4JV3QWts Permalink 10:38 AM – 27 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 5) There is this great theorem by Dubins and Savage, but I owe the much simpler games example to Cliff Asness @CliffordAsness who mentioned it in 1999 at lunch in NYC.https://www.amazon.com/How-Gamble-You-Must-Inequalities/dp/0486780643 Permalink 2:06 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 4) This is another example where pathologizing mental accounting by the Uberklueless and Verbiagiastic Richard Thaler @r_thaler fails: his model considers such path dependent strategies irrational. Permalink 2:01 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 3) The general principle #Antifragile is that when the payoff is bigger or you have your back to the wall you go for maximum variance (convexity). When the downside is bigger you go for minimum variance. Why explains why winning teams mark time and losing teams take risks. Permalink 1:50 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@mgpolitis Could be a variant of the theme “Η ημιμάθεια είναι χειρότερη από την αμάθεια”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/977895229733916673 Permalink 12:43 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) Here is my solution, will generalize showing results across all regimes. Convexity (optionality) beats skills. Any time. #Antifragile @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/C1rBKtmIHW Permalink 12:14 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is a grrrrreat case study by Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath showing OPTIONALITY matters more than skills: You can have >53% chance of winning when odds are against you is you have the option of switching between 2 (strategies, both of which have odds against you).https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/975844094374285312 Permalink 12:11 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@MaxMakz #incerto change lives. Thank you / Danke / Спасибо @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/ldqEWW0KkD Permalink 11:15 AM – 26 Mar 2018

@ShapsterD the times and @nntaleb on the same page for once? pic.twitter.com/dMH7xvkTkX Permalink 9:57 AM – 26 Mar 2018

@Cernovich Paging @nntaleb for his excellent article, “The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority” https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/976872173523623936 Permalink 9:32 AM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The opposite of education isn’t ignorance but miseducation. Permalink 6:09 AM – 25 Mar 2018

@nntaleb That pill has to potential to transforming any regular person into an economist.https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/977641234192777216 Permalink 5:00 AM – 25 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Soul in the game. He died for the sake of others. RIP, with our prayers and greatest respect.https://twitter.com/Gendarmerie/status/977438206550474754 Permalink 3:50 PM – 24 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Where revealing that you have skin in the game violates the principle that one should not market virtue (except when taking risk, by taking risk).https://twitter.com/NicGeaman/status/977653272835223553 Permalink 2:12 PM – 24 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A simple (some say “nasty”) integral https://www.cut-the-knot.org/proofs/YetAnotherSimpleIntegral.shtml #FigureThat #math #calculus ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/TvFl0Ix20P”> pic.twitter.com/TvFl0Ix20P Permalink 11:14 AM – 24 Mar 2018

@GMWatch Stop #Monsanto’s Secretary of State! Mexican corn products widely contaminated with GMOs & #glyphosate. And other news! https://mailchi.mp/2ee5e230eedd/daily-digest-351849 #gmo ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/kq5cN71V39″> pic.twitter.com/kq5cN71V39 Permalink 10:45 AM – 24 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I’ve never met a Spanish grammar specialist.https://twitter.com/vinates/status/977569730860142594 Permalink 8:54 AM – 24 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Nothing wrong abt dismissing someone as a fool or a bulls***ter, i.e., not solid, not reliable in reasoning & conversation. But when someone’s viewpoint escapes a psychologist’s logic, he will impart some psychological cause to the divergence. Permalink 8:52 AM – 24 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Someone at dinner just asked me to define a “dictator”. Someone who doesn’t buy weapons from your government. Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Mar 2018

@greekhistorypod Sicily – Land of the Phoenicians, via @GillianHovellhttps://muddyarchaeologistcouk.wordpress.com/2018/03/21/sicily-land-of-the-phoenicians/ Permalink 2:00 PM – 23 Mar 2018

@LorenzoWVilla In linea con quanto sostiene @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/istbrunoleoni/status/977186224426422272 Permalink 12:02 PM – 23 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I am not involved. BTW the technical SILENT RISK shows the plumbing behind The Black Swan. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html https://twitter.com/dd_ann_61/status/976885542586667010 Permalink 8:00 AM – 23 Mar 2018

@SyrianLionesss Mothers day mass earlier this week in #Aleppo #Syria pic.twitter.com/ZxCGMV50OZ Permalink 7:54 AM – 23 Mar 2018

@chris_walker_ Inspired by @nntaleb, I tried cuttlefish ink pasta in Venice. I think it was the real thing! pic.twitter.com/zaln6IzAyP Permalink 7:14 AM – 23 Mar 2018

@thackerpd Spinning Science & Silencing Scientists: A Case Study in How the Chemical Industry Attempts to Influence Science https://democrats-science.house.gov/sites/democrats.science.house.gov/files/documents/02.06.18%20-%20Spinning%20Science%20and%20Silencing%20Scientists_0.pdf Missed this House Report on disinformation created by #Monsanto operatives cc: @MariahCBlake @fastlerner Permalink 5:56 AM – 23 Mar 2018

@BrankoMilan My review of @nntaleb tetralogy http://glineq.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-importance-of-talebs-system-from.html Permalink 7:13 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb One thing that struck me at NASA-JPL: these were scientists, many PhDs, but were not academics. It hit me that they were BS-free: from contact w/real world, w/results in the micro world. It takes a certain mindset to send a robot to Mars AND make it actually get there.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/976577262202966017 Permalink 6:37 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/976948306927607810 Permalink 4:11 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@JulianAssange 811 WikiLeaks files on John Boltan: https://search.wikileaks.org/?query=%22john+bolton%22+-sweep&exact_phrase=&any_of=&exclude_words=&document_date_start=&document_date_end=&released_date_start=&released_date_end=&include_external_sources=True&new_search=True&order_by=most_relevant#results Permalink 3:58 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Out understanding of history would be much, much improved if “North Africa” was called “South Med” instead. Too many people think in words. Permalink 1:04 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Witness.https://twitter.com/ss_strength/status/976864370973134848 Permalink 9:59 AM – 22 Mar 2018

@noemie_issan Les honnêtes hommes, ça lit Montaigne et le Talmud. Un petit commentaire sur un narratif talmudique dans le dernier livre de @nntaleb “Jouer sa peau” https://twitter.com/noemie_issan/status/976833003837165569 Permalink 9:32 AM – 22 Mar 2018

@Jevaughn_Brown He ties ancient wisdom to modern insights with mathematical/scientific rigor while making it all accessible to the non-technical AND hilarious at the same time. Just incredible. Permalink 8:22 AM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb BS vendors usually write popular science/philosophy books, those that tell people what they want to hear. Non BS vendors write anti-popular science/philosophy, those that disturb the maximum number of people. Permalink 6:14 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Unpopular book here means the book should disturb a certain number of people. Permalink 6:07 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The point is not that Sarkozy took money from Gadhafi. The problem is the ingratitude: he tried to eliminate him right after. Ingratitude is the worst trait in a human being.https://twitter.com/AFP/status/976498827459997696 Permalink 6:04 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Ramp is the generator of konveksity. Permalink 2:56 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb BS vendors usually write popular science/philosophy books. Non BS vendors write unpopular science/philosophy. Permalink 2:54 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb JPL lecktchur on Antifragility and Konveksity, in 9 min. pic.twitter.com/E9tU0C17iK Permalink 2:52 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@DaliaGlickman Interjecting as his daughter – my father and Nassim were business colleagues and friends. My father just mentioned Nassim last week and cherished their conversations about all things financial and philosophical. Permalink 7:21 AM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Ended up hiking with @stephen_wolfram (& others at Bezos’ #Mars2018), in the snow on a steep mountain wearing flaneuring shoes (Italian moccasins without socks). pic.twitter.com/6OkwKrS3e2 Permalink 5:47 PM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 6) look at this idiot @marcgunther who fell for ithttps://twitter.com/marcgunther/status/976174470644805634?s=21 Permalink 1:35 PM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) You cannot get the open butterfly with sum of sigmoidal functions (they are closed at the ends), but you can with ramp functions. In other words, neural nets can now capture tails of distributions! Permalink 8:31 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 1) Some thoughts from the Bezos #MARS2018 conference. Why Machine learning methods are very intuitive for option traders. Captures functions better than sigmoids (binaries). pic.twitter.com/OVUYfLH235 Permalink 7:47 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@embracethetrend Few men who have a handshake worth trusting. I agree with @nntaleb on the importance of honourhttps://twitter.com/voteboudreau/status/975884957993271297 Permalink 7:27 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@The_Cyrenian I am Syrian. In Syria. The “rebels” you and @nikkihaley support have killed many of my friends, and six of my family members – the youngest being two-years-old. Both of you have done nothing but bring death and destruction to us – especially to my community – Syria’s Christians.https://twitter.com/statedeptspox/status/976090852241166336 Permalink 7:26 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Sorely missed. Permalink 6:44 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb RIP Rabbi Tony Glickman, who said “life is long gamma”. You will be missed.https://twitter.com/YUNews/status/975913856605310976 Permalink 6:40 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@TheStoicEmperor Steve Jobs had a very good understanding of @nntaleb’s crucial concept of “skin in the game.” pic.twitter.com/gybIDPWEPC Permalink 11:26 PM – 19 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Wolfram is a mathematician with skin in the game!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/975902401382170624 Permalink 6:12 PM – 19 Mar 2018

@lawrennd Very lucky to spend time with @stephen_wolfram and @nntaleb .. we’re talking about you @matthewsyed pic.twitter.com/FJOdg2HCZq Permalink 6:08 PM – 19 Mar 2018

@mvachhar Sadly this won’t be the last time this happens. No #skininthegame (@nntaleb) means that bad actors are not removed from the ecosystem, leading to bad outcomes over and over again. Permalink 11:22 AM – 19 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Advice given to any young person: “I can’t tell you what to do. I can tell who what I’ve done. I’ve instinctively never gotten into a zero-sum business, such as academia, sports, bureaucracy, etc. The mark of a zero-sum business is hierarchy.” (Academia is a quarter position.) Permalink 7:57 AM – 19 Mar 2018

@kunalb11 “Men destroy each other during war, themselves during peacetime.” ― @nntaleb Permalink 3:26 AM – 19 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Trading prices are minority rules, not average of opinions. If there is wisdom, it’s the wisdom of the minority.https://twitter.com/St011M1/status/975449942603988992 Permalink 12:14 PM – 18 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I agree, but social media makes it easy to counter mob with mob. Eventually neutralizes.https://twitter.com/naval/status/975438767283515392 Permalink 11:33 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I know how to select co-authors.https://twitter.com/drcirillo/status/975395548797767686 Permalink 9:45 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@LouisLebbos A few more examples of Beirut architecture from my trip last month pic.twitter.com/Do2HJZ8AOD Permalink 7:40 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Random Numbers And Obtuse Triangle https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/ObtuseTriangleInSquare.shtml #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eSNkofIVp1″> pic.twitter.com/eSNkofIVp1 Permalink 6:42 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@Extrachelle #Beirut balconies. pic.twitter.com/7AqTEUZZzR Permalink 3:26 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@nntaleb For instance, for a linear payoff, if you predict an event priced at 1% probability, you can be wrong 99% of the time. For the same probability w/ a convex payoff, you can be wrong 999 times out of 1000 and still do very well. Permalink 2:47 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) In other words, the predictions that matter are those with a large payoff and little costs. If you predict what other people are predicting, you get nothing (but a nice paper track record). Monoculture works for blabbering academics, not traders & people in the real world. Permalink 12:50 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@HarryDCrane Forecasting is anti-fragile among IYIs. Bad forecasts lead to reverse engineering on how forecasts can be improved for next time — most discussion after election focused on improving for next time, instead of stopping w prediction snake oilhttps://medium.com/@HarryCrane/the-modern-day-snake-oil-salesman-2ca934cc2ab Permalink 8:35 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb A prediction is wrong only if it costs you something. A prediction is right only if it makes you something. The rest is tawk. #skininthegame. Permalink 6:31 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@TimTravis2 Just finished reading the chapter in Skin in the Game about the michelin star restaurant versus just getting a pizza and was laughing hysterically because it is so true. Loving the book by the way. One of your best. Permalink 6:26 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb This was with spelt. Works. Permalink 5:49 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@ArcheRomaion Kinds of Greeks: Alexandrians Cosmopolitan, inquisitive, affluent. At the crossroads of civilizations, the flux only began with the founding of the city in 331 BC. Producing philosophers, scientists, theologians & industrialists, most were expelled to #Greece by Nasser in 1956. pic.twitter.com/fjuyCv1JdZ Permalink 5:04 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink. pic.twitter.com/dA9Wi9Ii8P Permalink 5:02 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@orestistsinalis Fantastic interview of @nntaleb with @RalphNader on #SkinInTheGame. It’s so good it makes you think deeper about the book. https://shar.es/1Lj8Dj Permalink 1:08 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb No chi vuole la mamma carezza la bambina (sorry for the spelling, z3leni)https://twitter.com/z3leni/status/974999881633947648 Permalink 6:51 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 5) Effectively the “Monsanto troll army” is a shadow of its former self; either funding dropped or they got more careful. I am scheduled to talk to the German press abt Monsanto & meeting members of the board of Bayer in conjunction w/SITG pub in German. Permalink 6:34 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Debunk fake news, ESPECIALLY if they are on the side of your political opinions. It is the hardest thing to do. And make sure your correction of fake news is as vigorous as the inital annoucement. I dislike Gina Haspel & everything she stands for. But I put TRUTH first. Permalink 6:18 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@Sundaresaganesh @nntaleb a perfect Skin in the game – the last shot pic.twitter.com/h8qKPvzZF4 Permalink 4:07 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Armenians running for elections in Beirut. Wherever they go, Armenians give more than they take. pic.twitter.com/G0DnZGzAph Permalink 4:02 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@AlainPannetier pic.twitter.com/PXFfzI0FCR Permalink 1:11 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The man was destroying the IYI den of the state department. For the first time they had adult supervision.https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/974797462157316097 Permalink 5:33 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Here is an example of the Monsanto army.https://twitter.com/normonics/status/974737398277005313 Permalink 1:55 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I am aware of that, which is why I have been waiting before exposing Monsanto shills such as @keithkloor and @tamarhaspel when they are defenseless after the Bayer integration. Permalink 1:51 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 3) So far I’ve made lemonade out of lemons with my problem with Monsanto. The idea is to use their shills to sell more books. Remember it is typically rejects that become smear campaigners for Monsanto .http://gmwatch.org/en/news/latest-news/16581 Permalink 1:07 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) Monsanto has a policy of leaving nothing unanswered. There are stuff in the court papers.https://www.rt.com/usa/386858-monsanto-hired-trolls-court/ Permalink 1:00 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 1) As expected, looks like Monsanto Shills are retaliating against my stance ag Monsanto in #SkinIntheGame by gaming Amazon Reviews while claiming they are not shills. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R2S10CFLW3AP3Y/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=042528462X Permalink 12:57 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb After the Pompeo disaster, is there a possible way to stop Bolton from getting the White House position? Permalink 12:43 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@vonLichtenfeld At jump school, the guys who folded our parachutes had to take one of them at random each week and use it for their own jump. Given +50 jumps was improbable based on physical req.s, this is the definition of SitG Permalink 12:18 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@MattPirkowski Couldn’t script a clearer example of @nntaleb’s concept of Skin in the Game. In fact, he’s mentioned the architectural responsibility codes of Hammurabi many times. This would mean death for the architects in question. Fewer bridges would collapse.https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/974644470674112512 Permalink 10:41 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb It was obvious Assad had NO GAIN from using gas. Now they are getting it with SOME delay.http://www.newsweek.com/now-mattis-admits-there-was-no-evidence-assad-using-poison-gas-his-people-801542 Permalink 5:53 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The risk-based skeptical empirical approach to CLIMATE is here. pic.twitter.com/RupOpb3BUY Permalink 5:32 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Indeed, @clairlemon, you are undoing centuries of skeptical empiricism. One can approach our climate tragedy without SCIENTISM See our http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf https://twitter.com/crISIS_mule/status/974617925549199360 Permalink 5:13 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@skiales He @nntaleb either has impecable timing ..! Or is a tails type of a guy..! Bring the engineers at spot where the dead bodies got collapsed by the bridge & well … #hamurabi the SOB’s RITE WHERE THEY committed the. heinous sin of a #skinlessgame #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/moniqueomadan/status/974478688346693632 Permalink 3:34 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@RonPaul ‘Skin In The Game’ – With Special Guest Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIi0eO_oN9U Permalink 3:00 PM – 15 Mar 2018

@Sapere_vivere Reading the brilliant Skin In The Game by @nntaleb. Four little words that should be in the forefront of your mind when you think about human existence. Permalink 2:49 PM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 6) Mr @ImaraWaTijara, let me say it in one sentence” One single DNA test offsets 12 hours of b***ting. Gabish? Permalink 2:32 PM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 5) We have known since Ruffié and Taleb (1965) [my father’s hobby was scientific genealogy via blood markers] that Koura valley was heavily Macedonian/Western Cypriot & we can see it through DNA. Historians are convinved they can contest paternity tests with tons of verbal BS Permalink 12:05 PM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 4) As an example of how fabrications work: a Low-IQ Arabist below, @ImaraWaTijara is responding by inventing origins FOR ME and the Greek-Orthodox of the Koura Valley using bogus oral history, when DNA shows no Hawran stock in Koura & in MY OWN DNA (J2b).https://twitter.com/ImaraWaTijara/status/974295061683941377 Permalink 11:59 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@TMFStoffel While doing some research into our piece, I found this gem from @nntaleb in the @nytimes Note that it was written…… in 2003! http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/07/business/fannie-mae-s-loss-risk-is-larger-computer-models-show.html ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PC1mPY7jP6″> pic.twitter.com/PC1mPY7jP6 Permalink 11:38 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@TMFStoffel Here’s one for all of us to chew on from @nntaleb: “every time you open your mouth in a public forum and you say something: * that is not risky or * is meant to improve your image and reputation, every time you do that you are COMPROMISING YOUR ETHICS.” Permalink 10:47 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb You can’t be an author without attitude; write on your own terms.https://twitter.com/johndurant/status/974167721045671936 Permalink 9:55 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@RonPaul Grab your seat belts! Today’s Liberty Report is joined by @nntaleb to discuss @nytimes bestselling book #skininthegame — and the “interventionists” braying for war! Live @ noon ET on http://youtube.com/ronpaullibertyreport ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Wdx0mKmVkt”> pic.twitter.com/Wdx0mKmVkt Permalink 8:20 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 3) The other interesting “hard science” discovery is that a) Modern Greeks are the same as ancient Greeks, b) Greeks are largely Anatolian, c) Canaanites are largely Anatolian. Minority rule chapter in #skininthegame : languages travel, genes not so much. Permalink 6:52 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Never argue with someone with the aim of changing his or her mind; focus instead on changing the much less invested minds of the audience. Permalink 6:47 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) @PZalloua (Reich collab) showed Leb Shiites were of Phoenician ancestry, caused a shock, but now slowing building a Canaanite identity. I found from his databse that there is ~3% Arab genes in Lebanon & West. Syria. Arabist Historians s.a. Salibi are largely fabricators. Permalink 6:02 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb A Lebanese proverb: “If you give a fool a weapon, he will hurt himself”.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/974255026020519936 Permalink 5:13 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb THREAD 1) We are facing a complete and *sudden* rewriting of history using DNA, like paternity tests, disturbs linguists, historians, (recall the Mary Beard affair), archeologists, and Arabists.https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/03/ancient-dna-history/554798/?utm_source=twb Permalink 4:40 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@jordanbpeterson Did you notice, @JustinTrudeau, that a law-abiding Canadian citizen has been DENIED ENTRY by the UK? Do you think she’s more dangerous than the former ISIS fighters you rolled out the welcome mat for in Canada?https://youtu.be/odGiYJdFtE0 Permalink 11:07 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Happy Pi day –and, in the bargain, via Euler’s Identity. “The shortest path between two truths in the real domain passes through the complex domain.” ~ Jacques Hadamardhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/974019574088830976 Permalink 5:32 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@EmPee78 @nntaleb thank you for writing books that are meaningful pic.twitter.com/tSmzT7eOnp Permalink 3:01 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@RonPaul We are REALLY looking forward to having @nytimes multiple-time bestselling author @nntaleb joining us tomorrow Thursday live on the Liberty Report @noon ET on http://Youtube.com/RonPaulLibertyReport Be there!!!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/974029403482189824 Permalink 2:11 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I will be discussing the point and inveighing against these depraved interventionistas w/o #skininthegame with @RonPaul and @DanielLMcAdams on Ron Paul’s channel tomorrow at noon. @RonPaulInstituthttps://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/973955597728088067 Permalink 2:08 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@HarryDCrane Data != information Data = information only if you understand it. Collecting more of something you don’t understand only leads to more confusion. Permalink 12:31 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A Trigonometric Identity for the Pi Day https://www.cut-the-knot.org/triangle/TrigonometricIdentityForAPiDay.shtml #FigureThat #math #geometry #algebra ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1VvPF4rtZk”> pic.twitter.com/1VvPF4rtZk Permalink 11:30 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@JulianAssange My article on new US Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeohttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/julian-assange-the-cia-director-is-waging-war-on-truth-tellers-like-wikileaks/2017/04/25/b8aa5cfc-29c7-11e7-a616-d7c8a68c1a66_story.html?utm_term=.d32c33ee90fd Permalink 10:09 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@rjboyle Someone anonymously gifted me a copy of latest book from @nntaleb. Thanks to whomever it may be! pic.twitter.com/UreVQHFIz1 Permalink 9:36 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/when-did-lebanese-christians-start-speaking-french-771603969932 Permalink 7:23 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Those in “Colonialism” a la Ed. Said/Arabism studies are Fabricators. The French spent 22 years in Lebanon as military mandate (Italo-French was Christians’ education) The Ottomans spent ~501y The Mamluks spent ~220 y The Arabs spent ~250-350 y WTF is this Euro “colonialism”? Permalink 6:03 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Achrafieh, Taleb Family 1923-1972 pic.twitter.com/Cbx4oqPesh Permalink 5:49 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb MACHINE LEARNING & FORECASTING Announcement: the M4 competition (Makridakis) is open. We will finally figure out how the various machine learning methods fare with time series, without the currently prevailing cherry-picking. https://www.m4.unic.ac.cy ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yjo9MJ987m”> pic.twitter.com/yjo9MJ987m Permalink 4:09 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@WeAreLebanon Fascinating buildings in #Beirut By @elmaalouf #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/9cRyEYKdGS Permalink 4:02 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@Confusezeus “Foregone Conclusionism” explained – deserves a hashtag: spot the #foregoneconclusionismhttps://twitter.com/neontaster/status/973630518246957056 Permalink 4:37 PM – 13 Mar 2018

@DShaywitz Also from @nntaleb Antifragile: skeptical about Baconian model academia -> applied science&tech ->practice; favors tinkering model, see below (includes contrast w/his take on model 1). cc @JamesBessen pic.twitter.com/uccpgz6MxL Permalink 10:28 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@normonics 2 things about Pompeo evidenced by DARK act I very much DO NOT like 1) D act was about denying states the ability to determine their own law. centralizer. what is the point of electing a republican if a centralizer?might as well be a dem. 2) D act was a favor to MON-corporatist Permalink 9:14 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@nntaleb This is a disaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaster.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/973540316656623616 Permalink 6:32 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Decorators are not users. #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/StephenFleming/status/973401515934195712 Permalink 6:23 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Our Page on GMOs http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html Permalink 4:34 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Monsanto’s fraudulent claims. Show me papers on tail risks of GMOs. Show me.https://twitter.com/Preschel/status/973508207208431616 Permalink 4:17 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@TMFStoffel Love this. @RalphNader ‘s host: “@nntaleb sounds a little…Republican.” @RalphNader: “You CANNOT pigeonhole him!!” Permalink 6:04 PM – 12 Mar 2018

The Black Swan Report

Keeping Tabs on Nassim Taleb and the Highly Improbable.

Tag Archives: Monsanto

REPLICATION CRISIS, Gabish, Monsanto, Donaldo, Saudi Barbaria, slaves, Nudge, trees, waiters | Twitter

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