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Wolfram, Thaler, Monsanto, Gabbard, Localism, SALARYPEOPLE, Acroparasite, RENT SEEKERS | Twitter

1) Never insult fallen entrepreneurs
2) Governement debt is worse than private debt because absence of skin in the game

— ThinkerView (@Thinker_View) May 1, 2019

@nntaleb Typos and explained the inequality Permalink 11:20 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb A familiar argument   Permalink 10:10 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb QUESTION This friend of mine is writing a blurb for Stephen Wolfram. Wolfram is a genius but that’s the least uncommon of his attributes. Are there other successful living scientists who are so fully independent that they do everything on their own terms? Permalink 9:38 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb One possible approach Permalink 5:34 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb MATH RIDDLE DU JOUR. Since my name is on it, I am obligated to solve. Permalink 5:29 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb NUDGE SINISTER: How Behavioral Economics is Dangerous Verbalism. A project that will end up putting Nudgevillain @R_Thaler in his place. Filling in the math progressively. Permalink 5:16 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb Note that Fleishman Hillard boasts “balancing 80% of interactions on Twitter”, which includes …this feed. Permalink 4:41 AM – 15 May 2019

@EnlivenmentNow See this thread for details on this clear attempt by French intelligence services to intimidate journalists revealing information about links between France and Saudi Arabia. Seems to follow on intelligence agreement between the 2 countries   CC: @nntaleb Permalink 4:17 AM – 15 May 2019

@mikeharrisNY Another interview of @nntaleb that must become mandatory course material in business schools. I will write something based on it from past experience about friends that lost nearly everything in previous market turmoil periods while the #IYI look at longer-term charts. $SPX   Permalink 12:55 PM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb It appears that the Nudgevillain Richard Thaler @r_thaler blocked @blackswanman.   Permalink 10:24 AM – 14 May 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @paulkrugman @R_Thaler #IYIs #expertproblem Permalink 6:49 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb INTERVIEW WITH ERIK SCHATZKER 1) Do not insult fallen entrepreneurs 2) Governement debt is worse than private debt because absence of skin in the game 3) The imperative of tail risk hedging 4) Make money at your job, not in the markets   Permalink 6:22 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Fleishman Hillard is under French government investigation in the Monsanto Roundup affair for having a “hit list” of people to discredit and smear. I was on their US list. My response to them. If you work for a lobbying firm, get out. Your job is unethical. Permalink 5:19 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Imagine if we locked up warmongers… This is why I am supporting @TulsiGabbard even if I disagree with here socio-economic orientation. Just via negativa: avoidance of war is of yuuuuuuuuuuge benefits.   Permalink 5:11 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Friends, thanks for the comments. The intro to @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition is complete. Permalink 5:00 AM – 14 May 2019

@GeertNoels Roundup is harmful for the environment and for your stock price… #monsanto #Bayer #Roundup @nntaleb Permalink 3:46 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto lost another case. I would love the chance to tear apart their epidemiological claims. Permalink 2:19 PM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb Never complain about people, no matter how justified. Just drive them to complain about you. Permalink 1:33 PM – 13 May 2019

@financequant What can I say but that everyone needs to take this advice seriously. If it makes you uncomfortable or if you can’t seem to accept it, then you must consider that those feelings may arise precisely because you have exposed yourself to unacceptable levels of tail risk.   Permalink 1:19 PM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 8:37 AM – 13 May 2019

@black_swan_man   #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @wef #Davos #IYIs ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:54 AM – 13 May 2019

@spyrosmakrid Thanks Nassim for your great Introduction. The Special Issue of the INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING devoted exclusively to the M4 Competition will be available in digital form in the middle of June and in printed form at the end of the summer. @nntaleb   Permalink 6:15 AM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb Intro to @spyrosmakrid M4 competition Permalink 5:24 AM – 13 May 2019

@MaxAbrahms The US has a history of escalating against adversaries based on pretenses that turned out false. Pay attention to allegations of Iranian belligerence that are short on detail & walked back. This is one of the most critical functions of media it won’t do.   Permalink 2:41 AM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb Plus add the ?000,000 dead foreigners… Yet nobody addressed the source of Wahabism that spread AFTER 2001 thanks to the US support across madrassahs. Or Obama’s support to AlQaeda in Syria. Etc., etc.   Permalink 3:00 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 10 (not 9) Permalink 2:46 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 9 + That IQ tests measure “intelligence”. They mostly measure 1) obedience, 2) the unintelligence of IQ psychologists/psychometricians.   Permalink 1:41 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 9 + That GMO (Genetic Modification) is “scientific”, that it is just “accelerated breeding”. It is scientism & not in the same class as breeding.   Permalink 1:24 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 8 + That Modern Portfolio Theory (Markowitz) is imperfect. It is not imperfect, it is wrong, in the sense that you are better off not using it than using it.   Permalink 1:22 PM – 12 May 2019

@john_f_hamer The opposite of a networker: a person who’s habitually nice to people who won’t be useful to him in the future. Permalink 7:11 AM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb If you need to post a screenshot to back-up your tweet (or aphorism), you’ve already lost the argument. Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb This makes sense!   Permalink 4:20 PM – 11 May 2019

@jadabdala Heights of Canaan – Ehden under. Ampi, Chekka, Tripolis and the Mediterranean on the horizon. Bcharreh & Qodisha valley on my left. Arados on my right. Baal above. Permalink 8:22 AM – 11 May 2019

@nntaleb Ρωμιός εγώ γεννήθηκα, Ρωμιός θέμα να πεθάνω Permalink 5:12 AM – 11 May 2019

@nntaleb A rebirth of Hellenic identity among the North Syrian/North Lebanon “Rums” (My tribe). Permalink 5:11 AM – 11 May 2019

@normonics All things considered, wild release GMO poses much vaster uncertainty and therefore risk than does increase of CO2 Not to trivialize the latter, just a reasonable assessment given the additional complexity when the released agents are novel and historyless living organisms Permalink 6:06 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb Weapon makers used to rely on the naturally militaristic right for shilling. They got smarter and figured out it’s more effective to use the so-called “center-left” such as the NYT, CNN, the despicable Thomas Friedman, and the democratic party. Why is why we NEED @TulsiGabbard ! Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb Weapon makers used to rely on the naturally militaristic right for shilling. They got smarter and figured out it’s more effective to use the so-called “center-left” such as the NYT, CNN, the despicable Thomas Friedman, and the democratic party. Why is why we NEED @TulsiGabbard ! Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb To explain LOCALISM: On August 6, 1806, the Holy Roman Empire was abolished. Goethe noted that day that the people staying in the same inn as him were far more interested in the quarrel between their coachman and the innkeeper than in its demise. #Lindy Permalink 1:13 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb 2-Napoleon wrote (dictated) 10-30 letters a day; he was maximally into micromanagement. While emperor, on the campaign before Austerlitz, he wrote to the governor of Genoa asking him to stop taking his mistress to the opera because of a prostitution record. Yet he did think big! Permalink 11:31 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb This is to express my warm support to @TulsiGabbard as a noble democratic candidate and the bestfor Peace. Only she has the guts to stand up against the sinister militaristic lobby! #Tulsi2020 #SALT2019   Permalink 10:16 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb 2/ while Mandeville, Smith, and complexity theory have shown that a good system is one that, by scale transformation, turns individual vice, biases, and quirks into collective virtue. Permalink 8:15 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb What socialists, academics, neocons, and other idiots share is the belief that it is the intentions, and not so much the results, that matter. Permalink 7:52 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb The Book Jacket Description   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:37 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb J’ai été fiché par Fleishman Hillard.   Permalink 5:25 AM – 10 May 2019

@EconTalker My new animated video on how economists and journalists have distorted the evidence on growth and how it treats the poor and the middle class:   Permalink 2:54 PM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb For every successful entrepreneur you hear about on TV, there are 999 failed one eating canned sardines for dinner. Permalink 10:05 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb 7) Probabilistically risk takers earn LESS than salarypeople, particularly when you consider CEOs as nonrisktakers acroparasites. Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb 7) Probabilistically risk takers earn LESS than salarypeople, particularly when you consider CEOs as nonrisktakers acroparasites. Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb The Marxisto-Leftophrasts IYIs have lived under the narrative that employees are weak pple exploited by employers. Now we have robots, some made by robots. Why do they complain about the absence of exploitation? Permalink 7:02 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb 6) Socialists managed to drill in people’s heads the illusion that the money that pays for services is ultimately generated in Mars, that the industrial revolution was a British government project, & that … schoolteachers know anything about anything.   Permalink 6:09 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb Where did the money come from? Transfers from Mars? We need to find a cure for financial illiteracy.   Permalink 5:57 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 5) Show me how a salaryperson can lose net money. Negative salary?   Permalink 4:43 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 4) With civil servants, what you see is what is there. With entrepreneurs, what you see is the subset of successful ones, not the entire cohort, which includes a huge majority of failures. Yet we need this risk-taking. Permalink 4:37 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 3) The CEO of the company is not the entrepreneur w/skin in the game, but often some acroparasite actor milking the system. Permalink 4:03 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 2) And remember that it is risk takers and the mechanism of risk-taking that pulled more than a billion people out of poverty, not the design of some NGOer, civil servant, or some other acroparasite on a steady salary. Gabish? Permalink 3:03 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb A short quiz in memory of Alexander Bogomolny @SvetlanaBogom13 Permalink 2:46 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb If there were no entrepreneurs and risk takers … (I am getting idiots commenting on salaries without thinking in higher order terms.) Permalink 1:58 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb ATTENTION SALARYPEOPLE Next Friday when your guaranteed monthly paycheck is deposited, take a moment of gratitude for the entrepreneurs who took the risks so you get this risk-free income. Shaming an risk-taker for losing money is like shaming a soldier for losing a limb. Permalink 1:31 PM – 8 May 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio #OceanX #allweather #riskparity #riskyparity Permalink 12:09 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb You don’t show on your tax return the losses of others. [Should I lose patience with NYT-induced financial illiteracy? ]   Permalink 11:06 AM – 8 May 2019

@PaulMMCooper Breathtaking aerial photography of the Roman ruins of Baalbek in Lebanon, by @rami_rizk. Permalink 7:58 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb This is to show @spyrosmakrid How someone’s small miscalibration in probability translate into miscalibration in forecasting the corresponding deviation. Something Phil-the-Rat Tetlock @Ptetlock has been trying to hide. Permalink 6:00 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb Medicine is for the very ill, never the healthy. In #Antifragile, there is the assertion that there has been practically NOTHING made by humans to “improve” on nature or help with shortcuts that did not end up harming with UNSEEN side effects. #HiddenRisk   Permalink 4:37 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb In Antifragile…   Permalink 4:11 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb Getting close to finishing my paper for the very patient @spyrosmakrid showing why the “prediction” and “superforecaster” theories (@PTetlock-style) business is BS (but in polite words).   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:48 AM – 7 May 2019

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb recommends buying six copies of this book, just in case you need to bribe someone   Permalink 3:07 PM – 6 May 2019

@nntaleb Today is my 14th and last lecktshur for 2019. Back next Feb. Permalink 1:08 PM – 6 May 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic is yet again about #IQ for this I put the blame on @nntaleb, who sparked off my current “obsession” This strip was also inspired by @normonics and @paulportesi [defining intelligence, 1 of 2] For more visit   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:03 AM – 6 May 2019

@GregorySMcMurry People used to accept this up until recently   Permalink 7:22 AM – 6 May 2019

@antifragi7 If you wanna learn more about this idiotic fragilista read @nntaleb ‘s Antifragile.   Permalink 6:47 AM – 6 May 2019

@nntaleb If you let people think that you’re a total a**hole, you’ll never have to be one. Permalink 4:14 AM – 6 May 2019

@nntaleb BYZANTINE REAL HISTORY: Debunking Myths about the Arab Invasion of the Levant[0]=68.ARCSTgFrFlpkQnvfzyoA6NGRetEXm_bbubp_ihAOyIpmLEBW_k3Y2OqmIXhLckOhy6gvNxJUEqtX7skC75VjIs6fsTsDSjShkxtkvWzn4BEg8kSAAzXs_oYORlvY9GdBNZQnjxQP-9Imzm5faVzED474SEjhpkgltYPhRom4_rkHctURNVWJg8KAo-xERehaaZrZfisnzirgxdKLE4nzXpKLEDPa0ALUeyJQItAXJVGF19PduJ7hIsmj9rR4cYbg89KpIHi7IC2h6qOIHbFQbp9P49w1GN04ukvSIjMIBSEmNGNIiPq-GKZ_MfVSlGOiLb7shVuiEtR4UyaVWCuKA0o&__tn__=-R   Permalink 2:55 PM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 12:22 PM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb 2/ It is much easier for a criminal to fake being an honest person than for an honest person to fake being a criminal. Likewise it is easier for a fat-tailed distribution to fake being thin tailed than for a thin-tailed distributions to fake being fat tailed. Permalink 10:29 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb EXCELLENT QUESTION FROM A READER Permalink 10:25 AM – 5 May 2019

@_benoux_ Nice! Κρατοπαράσιτον. Κρατοπαρασιτικόν. Κρατοπαρασιτικός. Looks so natural it feels it already exists in greek. Permalink 9:55 AM – 5 May 2019

@AnarContrarian “The story of the nation-State is that of the concentration and magnification of human errors. Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility” -@nntaleb Permalink 9:37 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb Fundamentally, the word shd be about parasites without #skininthegame Permalink 8:53 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb Which is why tipping is dynamic not static!   Permalink 8:39 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb OK, July 30: Incerto Box Set   via @amazon Permalink 8:18 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb Parasitism is the clearest @JoshHochschild. We can alter it or find synonyms. We need @_benoux_’s Hellenicism. Permalink 5:29 AM – 5 May 2019

@bpaf was thinking about that passage the other day as it extends in the prophetic footnote cfr   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:24 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb We need a Graeco-Roman sounding name for “rent seeking” and “rent seekers”; something that one does not have to translate into French as “rent seeking” can be ambiguous.   Permalink 4:51 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb 2/2 Being hated by the rentseeker is equivalent to being loved by the righteous. (A confirmation (here @WGoetzmann) I am doing something right.) Permalink 12:49 PM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb Actually, I can be mean. Very mean. With some. But angry? Rarely. 1/2   Permalink 12:44 PM – 4 May 2019

@jstarklefkowitz “In the classroom the ruler measures the table in the real world the table measures the ruler”. Sans skin in the game, critics opinions only tell you about the critics themselves never about the thing they are criticizing. Permalink 11:50 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb NAPOLEON THREAD, seen w/modern eyes. 1-Napoleon & the English talked past one another. Napoleon liked glory, administration, image, ideas, top-down nations, top-down code. The English liked commerce & wd have left him alone if he didn’t heavily tax their good for pass through. Permalink 11:34 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb 3) Easy to deconvert someone from State worship via Martin Luther’s argument that “God & clergy are different “tings””. Show them that bureaucrats-cronies-nudgeboys-virtue merchants & “State” aren’t the same “ting” & “the State is among us”. Keep the State distributed! #Localism Permalink 5:59 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb The problem isn’t inequality, it’s RENT SEEKERS without skin in the game.   Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb RENT SEEKERS We need to make pple aware that discontent related to inequality is mainly discontent about rent seeking and rent seekers. Prevent rent seekers from exploiting this discontent by making it look like society need more IYIs like them to solve it. #GiletJaunes Permalink 5:20 AM – 4 May 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Joe Rogan!!! I am also hopping on the Tulsi train. I thought I would never vote again… but she will save lives and not surround herself with neocon assholes.   Permalink 1:28 AM – 4 May 2019

@TalebWisdom “To establish societal symmetry: The bigotteer needs to be penalized the same as the bigot. The false accuser needs to be penalized as if he committed the crime himself (Hammurabi). etc.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #symmetry Permalink 12:43 AM – 4 May 2019

@mark_terlesky I’m a fmr journo. Hold a “MJ” fr UC Berkeley. I recently made @nntaleb ‘s above quote the lead pic to my alumnus profile. Hope I don’t get dis-owned by Cal’s SOJ. If I do, fine. I went on to making lots of $ in the law, HR, small biz, & on @Nadex. Thx @nntaleb for all you do!   Permalink 6:41 PM – 3 May 2019

@nntalebbot “A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 PM – 2 May 2019

@awells10000 Unequivocally my absolute favorite graphic. Of all time. EVER. Brilliance by @dhavalpanchal @nntaleb @financequant #realworldrisk #bonds #longvol #convexity Permalink 3:33 PM – 2 May 2019

@FattestFatTony Not knowin crapola is better than knowin alotta crapola… Permalink 3:25 PM – 2 May 2019

@TulsiGabbard Neocons/Neolibs & MSM all sing from the same songsheet: War war war!!! Trump never gets positive media unless he’s threatening war/carrying out military action. Today, Venezuela. Tomorrow, Iran? Cuba? Who’s next? No wonder NK won’t give up their nukes.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:00 AM – 2 May 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Fat Tony nails it again… with plenty of characters to spare   Permalink 2:45 AM – 2 May 2019

@nntaleb Great news: @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition replicates real life by evaluating Abs[forecast-out of sample realization], not probabilities in {0,1}. Replicates accuracy in getting real life payoffs. Will revise as there is verbalistic “forecasting” (a la @Ptetlock) and M4 price. Permalink 3:31 PM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb “If my enemies knew me better they’d hate me even more” [Bed of Procrustes]   Permalink 1:24 PM – 1 May 2019

@JeanDmello Most of us are non-violent, only because we are outsourcing our violence. Permalink 11:39 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb Bayer’s stock is not higher on the news. The market knows the EPA is full of balloney; it is aware that Monsanto wrote too many EPA memos.   Permalink 11:13 AM – 1 May 2019

@Wolfram_Alpha Let’s kick off our anniversary with some cake! Can you figure this out? RT and reply with your answer. #WolframAlpha10 Permalink 10:13 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb The ability to read the Economist is the reason some people get poor. “The ability to digest milk may explain how Europe got rich”… The Economist Permalink 8:51 AM – 1 May 2019

@Thinker_View Permalink 8:30 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb Celebrating the resurrection with some #skininthegame   Permalink 6:19 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb MISSPECIFYING HAYEK: Prediction markets are not commercial markets. Permalink 6:13 AM – 1 May 2019

@justinowings A case study in unintended consequences with 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order effects: 1950s: Killing mosquitoes in Borneo solved malaria problem but led to typhoid and collapsing roofs—by killing roaches, lizards, and cats, which helped caterpillars and rats.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:54 AM – 1 May 2019

@Thinker_View On vous aime ! Merci ! Permalink 4:49 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb Presenting the paper in 5 min at the NY quant seminar and need a new title… Permalink 3:52 PM – 30 Apr 2019

@ladyinmedicine Remember when twitter suspended my account for saying “the MB is a terrorist organization”?   Permalink 9:05 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@ladyinmedicine Remember when twitter suspended my account for saying “the MB is a terrorist organization”?   Permalink 9:05 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@Jonassibony #Protosemitic *ḥimār ‘donkey’ #Akkadian imēru , #Ugaritic ḥimāru #Phoenician ḥmūr #Hebrew #Samaritan ‘émur ࠇࠌࠅࠓ #Tiberian ḥămōr חֲמוֹר #Aramaic #Syriac ḥmārā ܚܡܵܪܵܐ #Jewish ḥămārā חֲמָרָא #Arabic ḥimār حِمار #Sabaic ḥmr #asemiticwordaday Permalink 5:50 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Syrian refugees at ~ 25% of the pop. in Lebanon. Syria is now SAFE. But the US State Dept’s Satterfield opposes their repatriation as “it would legitimize Assad”. IYI Satterfield shd take some in his house. Shd Lebanese pay the price for HIS bone w/Assad? #SkinintheGame #Ethics Permalink 4:50 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@digvijoy_c A concept @nntaleb dedicated his life to.   Permalink 9:47 PM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Which title is better? A +One Does Not Eat Forecasts B +Where are the Great Forecasters’ Yachts? Permalink 7:04 PM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Which title is better? A +One Does Not Eat Forecasts B +Where are the Great Forecasters’ Yachts? Permalink 7:04 PM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Now after the lamentations, the Great Doxology, bilingual by chanted by Greeks and Lebanese.   Permalink 8:14 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@NonMeek It’s so insightful that I had to draw a rare [for me] Sunday comic strip about it. Hopefully it does your piece justice … can’t help you with the math though ;-) (0, 1) ≠ (-∞, ∞), #LudicFallacy Permalink 8:06 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@kivil Ancient wisdom resonates with @nntaleb   Permalink 7:51 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 7 +That you need to be a good “forecaster” to perform well. In fact you may NEED to be a bad forecaster to survive, get rich, etc. +Probability is a nonseparable kernel inside an integral. Most of the psych lit is BS   Permalink 5:47 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 6 + Lebanese is a standalone Semitic language; it and Arabic are separate languages, not mutually understandable, no matter how much the “Arabistas” try to smoke you with pseudoscientific claims.   Permalink 5:34 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@LeesSebastian “Administrators everywhere on the planet, in all businesses and pursuits, and at all times in history, have been the plague.” – @nntaleb Re-reading SITG – This quote is fucking awesome, and rings very very true. Permalink 2:55 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Hanaia is Aramaic for “Abdallah” or “Ovadia” or “Theophilus” or “Amadeus”, no?   Permalink 1:50 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb FRIENDS, the first draft for comments. “One Does Not Eat Forecasts”: On the Difference between Forecasting and Real Life Payoffs @spyrosmakrid   via @academia Permalink 12:49 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb FRIENDS, the first draft for comments. “One Does Not Eat Forecasts”: On the Difference between Forecasting and Real Life Payoffs @spyrosmakrid   via @academia Permalink 12:49 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb THE GOOD NEWS OF MACHINE LEARNING: How we can replace the verbalistic “prediction” (or, worse “belief”) with a more rigorous payoff function and how ReLu or call options can express ALL nonlinear payoffs (universal approximation theorem) Permalink 12:24 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@RichardHanania The university is now an institution run by and for administrators Permalink 12:05 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@aaronjmate 1/ If YouTube were to recommend your show, it’d be recommending the leading purveyor of now debunked Trump-Russia conspiracy theories, falsehoods & innuendo of the last 2+ years. Here’s a sample: Permalink 10:23 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb How to commit statistical BS-vending and not realize it. Please keep journos out of “slopes” and “trends” (as well as other things) (The slope is a random variable with high variance)   Permalink 8:09 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “AN ENEMY is someone in a zero-sum game, the representation bureaucrats, geopoliticians, journos & low-IQ pol “scientists” have of the world. A COMPETITOR is someone who helps the system stay non-zero sum & prevents monopolies.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 4:33 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@amaltaash (34/35) General Two gems from @nntaleb: -Never compare thin-tailed variables with fat-tailed ones: e.g. # of ppl dying in their bathtubs vs killed by terrorists per year. -IQ is a filter at the low end, to help figure out if someone has a learning/thinking disability. That’s it Permalink 2:12 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Guru, this is exactly my point about Fake News. Bottom up fake news is better than authoritarian top down fake news… Permalink 2:57 PM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile how Orthodox Christians in North Syria celebrate the resurrection:   Permalink 2:32 PM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb SECOND DISCLAIMER: The victim was arrested at 16, beheaded at 21. Permalink 2:22 PM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And Saudi Barbaria beheaded a total of 37 people, one of whom was crucified. Permalink 10:54 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb DISCLAIMER: It appears that the picture comes from a different execution (perhaps ISIS, another Wahabi group). But Saudi Barbaria effectively executed a 16 y.o. Shiite by beheading. Permalink 10:06 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb A Shiite 16-Year-Old   Permalink 9:43 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Χριστός ἀνέστη! Permalink 6:35 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Some have serious reading comprehension. The point is not that Obama did nothing scandalous. The point is that he was NOT caught or the media did not make a big deal. (Sorry, but I block idiots to avoid degrading the discussion. Nothing personal). Permalink 6:32 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Obama had no scandal, behaved w/dignity & extreme decorum. But -Increased centralization, bureaucratism, faught federalism -Crony capitalism, bankers > $$ than 2006 -Intrusive state w/evil nudgeboys Sunstein/Thaler, IYIs -Blew up Lybia, Syria, exterminated Syrian Christians…   Permalink 6:01 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb A book is summarizable degree n when the 2nd, 3rd,…, up the nth reading reveal things you did not get at the first reading. (A book is summarizable degree 0 when the first reading reveals nothing you didn’t get by not reading.) Permalink 5:17 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb AXION ESTIN! Good Friday Chants in Graeco-Arabic, the 3 Stasis. At 7:44 the Generation chant that ancestors have been reciting for almost 2 millennia, promising to pass on to the next generation.   via @YouTube Permalink 1:18 PM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb (Today is Orthodox Good Friday) Another Greco-Arabic chant from Lebanon   Permalink 11:27 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Megali Paraskevi in Greco-Arabic. Fairuz- Η ζωή εν τάφω   via @YouTube Permalink 10:17 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Which also explains why Mr @WGoetzman (a “finance” professor) has a severe technical flaw in almost all of his work involving tails & investor “belief”. Among other problems of course.   Permalink 7:36 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Bastiat #SeenAndUnseen Permalink 6:56 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@thackerpd .@Reuters editor @williamsmjw says he stands behind Kelland’s reporting, as does “Ethics Editor” @AlixFreedman This is a joke. @duffwilson @AmandaBecker @aterkel @cgseife @charlesornstein @CharlesPPierce @sfoucart @jackshafer @mlcalderone   Permalink 6:25 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie A happy accident this morning as @nntaleb shares a paper on the exact topic I’m staring at my screen thinking about. Permalink 6:08 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb You don’t see much of the snow from Beirut itself, you need to be >½ mile away from the Phoenician coast. Permalink 5:57 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Renamed the paper: “One Cannot Eat Forecasts”. New version. Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Religio as counter to superstitio   Permalink 1:26 PM – 25 Apr 2019

@jeitoapp Bar in London that won “just about every award going” closes less than 1 year after. Where did I hear this before? #SkinInTheGame @nntaleb Permalink 10:49 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@NonMeek Circular reasoning is still reasoning. The inherent circularity of #IQ scores captured in a cartoon strip and a @nntaleb tweet [IQ correlates, part 3 of x]. #psychology #psychometrics Permalink 9:59 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Scientific papers should be written like car manuals. No prose, just precision. Showing psychologists have NO IDEA about “overestimation” of tail probabilities, (technical version of my lecktshur at the great @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition). Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Beirut seen from the water. The Phoenician coast below Mount Lebanon. Permalink 8:26 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@JamesMarsh79 Proves @nntaleb point. Large caps skewed to downside and small to the upside   Permalink 8:11 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Our precautionary principle tried to show this possibility to GMO idiots who believe that science=scientism.   Permalink 4:24 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No kidding?   Permalink 1:37 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No butter! Permalink 5:45 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Two more days of Orthodox lent: vegan. Antonio Spadaro does wonders with the basic ingredients. Permalink 5:44 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@TarekMilleron Muilenburg’s denial of fault is hollow. Would he put his family on the “old” #737max, with randomly-selected 737-rated commercial pilots, bust off the relevant angle-of-attack sensor and take off? Repeat x10? No #skininthegame yet he subjected passengers and crew to that risk. Permalink 5:25 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@normonics This is enlightening. In fat-tailed domain conditional expectation is greater than conditional threshold K this drags one’s exposure even further into the tails, breaking the simplistic assumptions that provide pseudo-sophistication of recipe-users   Permalink 12:08 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb For example: why we humans do NOT overestimate small probabilities as stated in most cases. Permalink 5:49 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb What to study in college? What doesn’t bore you. (but the waist is still too thin)   Permalink 5:48 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #college #guidance #counselor Permalink 5:35 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@TheBondFreak @nntaleb, seems she’s getting it right.   Permalink 5:28 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists and Probability Why there is no “overestimation” of small probabilities (in most cases) and psychologists misunderstood the real distributions. PARANOIA pays! Permalink 5:05 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@InvestorSwedish @nntaleb thanks a million for your Incerto series! It’s been great for questioning much that I’ve previously been taking for granted – for investing, and life in general, too. Here’s my humble contribution to your paradigm-challenging series:   via @YouTube Permalink 3:55 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Delenda Saudi Barbaria   Permalink 3:33 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@focusontheb This is one of @nntaleb’s points that seems hard for a lot of people (me too!) to grasp: if something works, it can’t really be considered dumb. “Oh Mike! You misspelled that word!” “Oh Mike! How do you get so much engagement?” Same person Permalink 2:38 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@Steve_Sailer In the Current Year, do any lectures on “Whiteness” not consist of racist hate speech? Perhaps the keynote address at a convention of laundry detergent chemists? @wmarybeard   Permalink 3:47 PM – 23 Apr 2019

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