Category Archives: Twitter

Saudi Barbarian, Syriac-Aramaic, Gawker, Minority Rule, RIP Mohammed Ali, Amioun, Omidyar, Peter Thiel | Twitter

@nntaleb In a Saudi Barbarian air lounge (no food as they would poison me): C prince to discuss killing minorities in Syria.pic.twitter.com/f39LmMAJ6Z Permalink 5:36 PM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Press has conflict of interest w/public. NYT eulogy Gawker’s General Counsel when it is a Scum job in Scum company.http://nyti.ms/1UuDzvS Permalink 5:15 PM – 13 Jun 2016

@Tubbyturkey Wrote in big letters on my office wall: “Statistics: failure to reject null hypothesis” @nntaleb #asymmetry #RWRI Permalink 3:32 PM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People who get married many times do so because they like the transaction more than the state (& don’t understand their own preferences). Permalink 1:09 PM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I realize that people who get married often do so because they like the transaction more than the state. Permalink 12:40 PM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Is this reaaaaaaaaally true?https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/742415639982313472 Permalink 11:12 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@burtkanez I was pro-GMO ’til I read the precautionary principle by @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/715862574059937793 Permalink 9:39 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Petition for Syriac-Aramaic on Google Translate https://www.change.org/p/google-syriac-in-google-translate?recruiter=556330952&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=whatsapp \ Permalink 6:58 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Other words like zbl (garbage) also in Greek σκύβαλα Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Some Syriac words like “zinnar” also exist in Greek, ζώνη, unclear which way influence went. Permalink 5:42 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb When we look at the letter “zayin” it is even more striking how much more Aramaic our language is.pic.twitter.com/O65Js0fGEi Permalink 5:40 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb More evidence that Levantine has Aramaic roots: 2500 words in our vocabulary.pic.twitter.com/yaIIiFAetb Permalink 4:50 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@JohnCleese Do please read Taleb and Tetlock on people’s forecasting abilities. You might become a little less sure of yourselfhttps://twitter.com/ConorFurlong/status/741970306424811520 Permalink 1:28 PM – 12 Jun 2016

@mimisheraton Followers please also follow me at http://thedailybeast.com where I am now a columnist. Search “Kale” then “Why I Am Not A Locavore” Permalink 11:05 AM – 12 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Randomness does not look random: how to not be fooled by historical “trends” @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/KZgsN7wKkU Permalink 5:15 AM – 12 Jun 2016

@ashokatluri Intense, exhilarating and a very rewarding 5-day session on risk management by @nntaleb, R Douady and @financequant http://realworldrisk.com Permalink 4:50 PM – 11 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The central information abt people: what is the worse thing they’ve done in their lives. #RWRI Extreme Value Theory Permalink 3:49 PM – 11 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Dopo @sothisispietro @ashokatluri No more squid ink!pic.twitter.com/P79HxgBP1C Permalink 11:19 AM – 11 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Squid ink with @sothisispietro and @ashokatluri recovering from week long seminar.pic.twitter.com/yyT7sNcJJL Permalink 11:00 AM – 11 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Tighten the band to 7<= f <= Sqrt(51)? @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/FOvqHtf3eq Permalink 8:13 AM – 11 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Anyone who associates Gawker with freedom of expression is a fraud.https://twitter.com/WIRED/status/741433548708687873 Permalink 5:57 PM – 10 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Trying to translate Procrustes into Levantinepic.twitter.com/ZmOesEz9IL Permalink 7:24 AM – 10 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Decentralization is the nightmare of lobbyists.https://twitter.com/scruton_quotes/status/741261080261988352 Permalink 6:34 AM – 10 Jun 2016

@cfshoo “Weak men act to satisfy their needs, stronger men their duties.” @nntaleb Permalink 3:59 AM – 10 Jun 2016

@Frank_S_David “If I had to relive my life I’d be even more stubborn & uncompromising.”- @nntaleb, via @farnamstreethttps://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2016/06/nassim-talebs-life-advice/ Permalink 3:44 PM – 9 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Day 4 RWRI. Raphael showing funds that blew up in the 2008 crisis had the highest Sharpe ratio. Most brilliant!pic.twitter.com/xJQJ72XRNY Permalink 1:22 PM – 9 Jun 2016

@nntaleb “I will retake every inch”, translated from Classical Arabic into English, means “Let’s talk and settle”.https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/740953136077111296 Permalink 10:10 AM – 9 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Colquhoun is the one who incited web-social media mob in the Tim Hunt affair. A despicable man.https://twitter.com/raphaels7/status/740827882243674112 Permalink 4:05 AM – 9 Jun 2016

@nntaleb RWRI Day 3 Robert Frey @financequant explaining cellular automata with high praise for @stephen_wolframpic.twitter.com/jNALz5hwWD Permalink 12:56 PM – 8 Jun 2016

@nntaleb RWRI day 3 Aaron classifying tail models and time dependence.pic.twitter.com/BRbSRl9g8I Permalink 12:31 PM – 8 Jun 2016

@DrCirillo According to @sapinker, @nntaleb and I have not read his “The Better Angels of Our Nature”. Unfortunately we did, and that’s the problem. Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Our next seminar is the advanced quant one, Aug 15-19, Stony Brook http://realworldrisk.com/advanced_mini-certificate_in_risk The present one (reg) is full >60 pple Permalink 8:31 AM – 8 Jun 2016

@nntaleb “You don’t build a house based on a weather report”, Robert Frey @financequant Third day of http://Realworldrisk.com pic.twitter.com/l58jQHHuSe Permalink 8:26 AM – 8 Jun 2016

@nntaleb How Pinker treats data.pic.twitter.com/cRcL8xy0fw Permalink 4:37 AM – 8 Jun 2016

@ninarosenwald A #Turkish professor was just suspended. His heinous crime? Tweeting critically about the conquest of Constantinople http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8213/turkish-professor-suspended-over-tweet Permalink 4:33 AM – 7 Jun 2016

@dottorpax Ci trovate anche il mio articolo con @nntaleb sul rischio di guerre e conflitti armati.https://twitter.com/signmagazine/status/720661746730594304 Permalink 9:36 AM – 7 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Hirshberg’s beneficial ignorance theory is … sociobullshit, @BentFlyvbjerg shows http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X15301030 pic.twitter.com/1ZTN5zFWTG Permalink 3:24 AM – 7 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Intellectuals & talking-class (journos) are posing as representatives of the public. But they represent what the public doesn’t want to be. Permalink 7:14 AM – 5 Jun 2016

@SandroDemaio #WorldEnvironmentDay ’16. Fires in #California #Floods in Paris Drought in Malawi Storms in Sydney #WED2016 #auspolpic.twitter.com/frZUcjmNG2 Permalink 2:12 AM – 5 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Minority rule: the world is a better place because of very few intolerant people. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf https://twitter.com/EDarier/status/739400089945407488 Permalink 3:16 AM – 5 Jun 2016

@nntaleb RIP Mohammed Ali. A great man, not because of boxing, but because he walked the walk when he talked the talk. Respect. Permalink 1:57 PM – 4 Jun 2016

@nntaleb By policy, block anyone who commits sophistry. And, typically, block or mute their friends. Life gets much better.https://twitter.com/JodiKoberinski/status/739190994378346497 Permalink 1:35 PM – 4 Jun 2016

@nntaleb N N Taleb’s AUB Commencement Address 2016 (Excerpts) https://youtu.be/Q_yUUNfEwok via @YouTube Permalink 12:56 PM – 4 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Where we find out journos are NOT representative of the public. Only 7% of interpret 1st amend incorrectly #Gawkerhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/738832115823968256 Permalink 11:41 AM – 4 Jun 2016

@nntaleb For comments: translation of our work on violence. No, violence didn’t drop.@DrCirillo https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/violence-nobel.pdf pic.twitter.com/vAxovRVEgC Permalink 5:58 AM – 4 Jun 2016

@GuruAnaerobic The hidden rationality of Homeopathy – reduction of harm. My piece in the Daily Mail.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-3619719/Could-homeopathy-HELP-NHS-stopping-people-minor-ailments-seeking-unnecessary-medical-treatment.html Permalink 2:49 PM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The point is to test people’s understanding of Freedom of Expression. @StingMccoy Permalink 1:45 PM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Does the First Amendment (freedom of speech) cover Gawker posting spy camera sexual scenes of you against your will? Permalink 1:37 PM – 3 Jun 2016

@EHSANI22 Erdogan hands down worst strategic player in Syrian crisis. Failed to remove Assad. Helped the Kurds dream big. Permalink 1:03 PM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I read the book. I have trouble with his definition of “belief” without revelation of preferences.https://twitter.com/samuelegreen/status/738707654944555009 Permalink 11:50 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Two pages setting Quantitative historiography applied to Violence presented to the Nobel Foundation @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/8Id0xuVCGq Permalink 9:38 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Casualty of Gawker’s support by journos: idiots conflating 1st amndmnt for arguments & publishing revenge sex sceneshttps://twitter.com/jbsil/status/738719636712198144 Permalink 6:23 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Deficiency in logic: Complain that Peter Thiel is bullying legal systm as he is richer than Gawker. But Gawker is richer than its victims! Permalink 5:29 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Indeed, Atheism is a sect of Protestantism. (For one to be an atheist, religious “belief” has to be epistemic.) @holland_tom Permalink 4:45 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@holland_tom If Hinduism is a single religion, consistency requires Judaism, Xianity & Islam be categorised as sects of a single religion – Stietencron Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Removed some typos @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/cVX898hKB4 Permalink 4:16 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finishing paper for the Nobel Foundation debunking Pinker’ theory of drop in violence, w/@DrCirillopic.twitter.com/0oLFcWQW4t Permalink 3:59 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@enzolamberti Heuristic a la @nntaleb:if uncertain where common people’re heading,ask commentators for directions then go oppositehttp://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21699914-democratic-challenger-thinks-he-still-has-shot-nomination-hes?cid1=cust/ednew/n/bl/n/2016062n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/EU/n Permalink 2:49 PM – 2 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Antifragility & Medicine, finally a clean first draft for @markomanka ‘s Springer Handbook https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf pic.twitter.com/7sv0VX6e5F Permalink 2:00 PM – 2 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2nd ed paperback coming soon with 50% more aphorismshttps://twitter.com/JamPetrich/status/738430022030139392 Permalink 12:37 PM – 2 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Medical Article almost done, https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf Looking for Non-Medieval necessary a priori truths in Medicine!pic.twitter.com/HQ1rJPRWJV Permalink 2:32 PM – 1 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Which explains why p-values don’t work at all for risk management.https://twitter.com/alxpr1c3/status/738064147439583232 Permalink 1:22 PM – 1 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Typical journos combine low IQ, low practical sense, low erudition, buzzword driven grasp,& a high sense of entitlement. An explosive combo! Permalink 12:31 AM – 1 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Added: Gawker bullies citizens, strong citizens bully Gawker. Asymmetry meets asymmetry! https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153873892038375 pic.twitter.com/YDkJFTcRNC Permalink 12:04 AM – 1 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Explain.https://twitter.com/brasswax/status/737771935942246401 Permalink 5:27 PM – 31 May 2016

@nntaleb Intuitive presentation of Girsanov’s Theorem in Dynamic Hedging @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/j46O2H7Wcv Permalink 5:00 PM – 31 May 2016

@nntaleb CITIZENS vs JOURNALISTS & CITIZENS vs GAWKER. Citizens usually end up winning. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153873892038375 Permalink 9:50 AM – 31 May 2016

@nntaleb Finally found the Peshitta in bilingual Syriac-Arabic much easier to read : ” Breshit bro Aloho”.pic.twitter.com/GMoLvQuH9b Permalink 7:21 AM – 31 May 2016

@nntaleb Gawker or why Journos cannot escape having Skin in the Game.pic.twitter.com/GrZZ6ZiW7t Permalink 5:43 AM – 31 May 2016

@nntaleb Many “irrational” behavior comes from unsophisticated academics. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/pseudobiases.pdf @george_cooper__ @rorysutherland @jasonacollins Permalink 12:12 AM – 31 May 2016

@nntaleb If 1 knows Arabic & Sharia &argue FROM it they hide/can’t say Islamophobe. 6 ancestors were Jurists @pootsie121165 @Noahpinion @holland_tom Permalink 11:48 PM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Photius! He had the largest library.https://twitter.com/aarondwarwick/status/737396629863419904 Permalink 11:19 PM – 30 May 2016

@sankrant Insightful comment by @nntaleb applicable to the “sophisticated, liberal, urban English Class” in India. @sankrantpic.twitter.com/fXh7UfFccx Permalink 1:44 PM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Since my debunking of BSvendor Noah @noahpinion (still going) pple leave me alone, so I am now defending my friends.https://twitter.com/ArnauGM/status/737380239995744256 Permalink 1:32 PM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb (desert port) Permalink 1:25 PM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Just as Alexandria was a Greek port while rest was Egyptian, Damascus was an Arab port even during Omayad while rest was Byzantine-Aramaic. Permalink 1:24 PM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ansar, false accusations (such as ag @holland_tom) are criminal under Islamic law. You are not a lawyer. @MoAnsarpic.twitter.com/rymiJB2rv4 Permalink 12:39 PM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb La scienza cresce mostrando ciò che è sbagliato, non dichiarando ciò che è giusto [scienza Popperiana] @ThManfredi @dottorpax Permalink 10:06 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Almost complete documents on Antifragility in Medicine. For comments https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf pic.twitter.com/vOKwO3gDMP Permalink 9:57 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Want to keep your intelligence intact through life? Simply do not utter intellectually & logically offensive tweets.https://twitter.com/DarrenSpicoli/status/737321842440953858 Permalink 9:41 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ansar, lying is mu7arram by Sharia. So why are you lying about Mr Holland? @holland_tom @MoAnsarpic.twitter.com/VgSKVeDqjL Permalink 5:21 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ansar, I doubt you know Arabic (given your reputation as a charlatan). Just in case حبل الكذب قصير @holland_tom @MoAnsar Permalink 3:15 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Excellent! Political studies, or pol philosophy! Problem is people use “science” for scientism & BS regressions.https://twitter.com/BenKlass/status/737216962724384768 Permalink 2:43 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb The “science” in pol science, like the “democratic” in “Democratic Pple’s Rep of Korea”, is used to hide the scam.https://twitter.com/SLdeLange/status/737199516328296448 Permalink 1:36 AM – 30 May 2016

@kcfaul Long tail risks. Seems safe today (gmo for example) until the problem is uncovered in the future @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/nytimes/status/737173895514607616 Permalink 12:11 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb In Byzantium the Orthodox Patriach was often a man of deeds, not necessarily cleric. And didn’t wear ties.https://twitter.com/KremlinRussia_E/status/736629519403102209 Permalink 1:00 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb 2) Mr Hanretty your formation as a charlatan consists in bullshitting abt things you are clueless about. I am a scientist. @chrishanretty Permalink 12:58 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb 1) Mr Hanretty, are you suggesting that one should bullshit like astrologers abt opaque things in order to bust astrologers? @chrishanretty Permalink 12:57 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ansar, why are you disseminating lies about Tom Holland to your followers?Does your status allow special exemption? @holland_tom @MoAnsar Permalink 11:43 PM – 29 May 2016

@nntaleb Congratulating my cousin Rene Shammas for his election as a member of the municipality of Amiounpic.twitter.com/YBf4ozWKed Permalink 1:27 PM – 29 May 2016

@nntaleb Problem moved away from Gawker (bus now risky): journos’ *sense of entitlement* to harm citizens, promotion of fallacies abt 1st amendment. Permalink 8:35 AM – 29 May 2016

@nntaleb How many of these “600 economists” saw the risks that caused the 2008 crisis? Economists are clueless. Kapish?https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/736827489008406528 Permalink 7:58 AM – 29 May 2016

@InjuredThales @czwalsh @nntaleb I guarantee that 99.9% of those defending Gawker now would be outraged if they released a Michelle and Barack sex tape. Permalink 4:37 PM – 28 May 2016

@WalterWhiteBC @nntaleb Mr.Taleb thanks for standing up to lunatics confusing free speech w/ porno voyerism anarchy and personal asymmetric destruction Permalink 2:29 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb Even for public figures, there is information and there is porno voyeurism. Spy cameras in bathrooms of public figs?https://twitter.com/czwalsh/status/736671628331978754 Permalink 2:35 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb Ben, societies have been shown to have had over history a clear idea of what is moral or not. @bhorowitz @kaimac @lkoturner @MichialFarmer Permalink 2:32 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb Theil help make the voyeuristic business model very costly. It’s the “mahket” for risk. @John_Hempton @amoselberg @Gawker Permalink 2:27 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb The nub: journos being low IQ, impractical & logically deficient, think judges are also stupid & low IQ. They’re nothttps://twitter.com/diomavro/status/736666106291703809 Permalink 2:23 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb Journos like Gawker exploiting freedom of speech by equating it to videos of your sex life on web. #Logicalfallacyhttps://twitter.com/leonletto/status/736656830651322369 Permalink 1:50 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb Fucking moron, Gawker has ruined the lives of college students! @gammatrader09 Permalink 1:26 PM – 28 May 2016

@kluslim This is a serious issue. All your snap stories could be used by your “friends” as “journalism”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/736651610198179840 Permalink 1:17 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb If Gawker wins higher court appeal then NECESSARILY anyone can post your PRIVATE activity videos ag. your will. It is Citizens vs “Journos”. Permalink 1:13 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb What will kill Gawker & #pseudo1stamendment fake journalism isn’t HulkHog but 21 y.o ruined w/o “newsworthy” justif.pic.twitter.com/7sMWMZlPMm Permalink 12:49 PM – 28 May 2016

@abhi2point0 “A journalist defending Gawker is like a certified public accountant defending Enron.” Wordhttps://twitter.com/munilass/status/735989191453081603 Permalink 10:41 AM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb I see no difference betw spending 20 years of researching the tomb of Aristotle & the 10th C. morbid worship of ecclesiastical relics. Permalink 7:46 AM – 28 May 2016

@balajis “Gawker manufactured a story that accused someone of rapeapparently for clicks and giggles” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larry-womack/james-franco-gawker_b_7816032.html pic.twitter.com/2Gl2MKfPVL Permalink 11:18 PM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb Aristotle’s tomb may be good for local hotels, but conflating fetishism and contribution to knowledge is v. offensive to the philosopher. Permalink 5:00 AM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb Commencement Address at the American University in Beirut http://fooledbyrandomness.com/AUBCommencement.pdf Permalink 12:13 AM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb If Omidyar wants to fight for freedom of sp, back reals journos fighting power, not scum Gawker prying on 21 y.o.!!!https://twitter.com/business/status/736358883636174848 Permalink 11:47 PM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb Bankrupting immoral journalists is good for journalism.https://twitter.com/lkoturner/status/736203748096118784 Permalink 7:42 AM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb I find it a very honorable use of one’s money to bankrupt sites like Gawker. Thank you Peter Theil.https://twitter.com/lkoturner/status/736203748096118784 Permalink 7:40 AM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb It appears that the Thiel vs Gawker is about skin in the game for journos. Sorry journos, but you won’t escape SITGhttps://twitter.com/_ravisun/status/736193591798685699 Permalink 7:02 AM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb Compendaria res improbitas: Shortcuts lead to vice, long road to virtue. The Artisan’s life https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153860152453375 pic.twitter.com/6yJO40wtb3 Permalink 6:54 AM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb My experience: journos label as “thin skinned” those who make them accountable/responsible for their actions.https://twitter.com/Cimmerian999/status/736179882305179648 Permalink 6:42 AM – 27 May 2016

@MichialFarmer @lkoturner @nntaleb Do you think posting sex tapes of private citizens qualifies as “good journalism,” then? Permalink 3:16 AM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb Enlightnment heroes, when framed sanctiness of “freedom of expression”,did not have Gawker & Engligh Tabloidism in mind. Delenda Gawker Permalink 1:45 PM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb As @RyanHoliday shows,defending Gawker that drives 21 yo to contemplate suicide in the name of 1rst amnd is criminalpic.twitter.com/hOIe1NlAFQ Permalink 1:38 PM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb 2) The purpose of the freedom of speech/1st amendment is not to favor sellers of voyeurism/gawkerism. Voyeurism hijacks freedom of speech. Permalink 1:14 PM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb 1)Don’t believe the “Gawker goes after the poweful” scam. They punish the weak. Voyeurism is not journalism. Kapish?pic.twitter.com/hSfoNTuOqF Permalink 1:11 PM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb Squid in and Lebanese rose in Beirut. Pasta >> risotopic.twitter.com/fAQ2PNLEus Permalink 10:28 AM – 26 May 2016

@jc8136 @oiwoods You should rather be appalled that only a rich guy can afford such a case! @nntaleb @POLITICOMag Permalink 4:43 AM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb Gawer has destroyed lives of college students by posting videos ag their will. &they bullied them using their power. @oiwoods @POLITICOMag Permalink 4:33 AM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/ In other words, voyeurism should not be the province of the press. Permalink 4:26 AM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb Calling Gawker a “digital publisher” is equivalent to calling the mafia a “social club” or manure a”natural perfume”https://twitter.com/POLITICOMag/status/735664105453916160 Permalink 4:05 AM – 26 May 2016

Benthem, Precautionary Principle, Monopoly, Bayer, Monsanto, Junk Statistics, Wolfers, Piffle | Twitter

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@cfshoo You should be much more ashamed of things you didn’t say than you are of things you said. –Nassim Talebpic.twitter.com/I6tGmbbY4u Permalink 3:01 AM – 25 May 2016

@nntaleb Easier to get a job in trading/quant/risk if you are a cook than economist. Economists are for networking, gov/nonprofit nonRealWorld. Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 May 2016

@nntaleb Oil is stored solar energy; it is like a battery. The idea is to minimize storage. #RoyalColloquium2016 Permalink 2:51 AM – 25 May 2016

@EmanuelDerman More cleaning up. Lawrence Durrell on economics.pic.twitter.com/wgRRgviI7j Permalink 12:17 PM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb Bentham and the notion of utility see by Marx. @SanguineEmpiricpic.twitter.com/FgAfkBZf1K Permalink 11:40 PM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb Three intense days on the Precautionary Principle near Stockholmpic.twitter.com/xPwrQl3pkJ Permalink 3:06 AM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb If you want to convince the other side that you won the argument, you have no argument. Permalink 2:26 PM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 4/4 From a long experience observing mergers, management of 1 of the companies is usually outsed; 1 side cashes out. So Agency Problem. Permalink 7:43 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 3/3: Re: Bayer-Monsanto: we have known robustly since 1986 that mergers create negative returns, largely a game by CEOs for own benefit. Permalink 7:41 AM – 23 May 2016

@CAM_SMlTH @nntaleb a good example of this at the moment with Australian supermarkets/dairy farmers and #milkmohttp://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/20/20/31/australian-shoppers-rally-behind-struggling-dairy-farmers-as-supermarkets-sell-out-of-milk Permalink 7:24 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb Greater monopoly is typically suicide for corporations. @CAM_SMlTH Permalink 6:58 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb My betes noires: + MONSANTO – gone ? + SAUDI BARBARIA – on the way + HILLARY MONSANTO-MALMAISON + Economic Departments + GOLDMAN SACHS – Permalink 6:47 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Bayer, as far as I know, doesn’t engage in as vicious smear campaigns against scientists as Monsanto does. Permalink 6:27 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb So Monsanto is now dead. Bayer for all its ills cannot possibly be as unethical as Monsanto. Good riddance. Permalink 6:02 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb Historia du jour: Many Caliphs were half-Greek (Al-Wathiq, Al-Muntasir, Al-Mu3tadid) and Al-Muhtadi was 3/4 Greek.pic.twitter.com/k3JryrfHMe Permalink 5:49 PM – 22 May 2016

@Shinfu Madre mía la interpretación libre y mala que se hace a @nntaleb.https://twitter.com/TorrasLuis/status/734480441881833472 Permalink 1:46 PM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb So far the last example of interventionism with huge unwanted consequences…https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/734077065574637569 Permalink 9:12 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb My co-author & I have data showing that Hedge Funds who blew up in 2007-8 were ~ those w/lowest daily volatility/highest Sharpe. @Sevens_2 Permalink 8:37 AM – 22 May 2016

@Chris_Liss @nntaleb FYI – quoted your prior tweet in a piece I wrote:https://medium.com/@chris_liss/on-a-scale-of-1-10-one-being-presidents-dont-have-that-much-power-and-10-being-this-could-end-7016cfe03d0a#.j48yzhh9o Permalink 8:30 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Mapping Antifragile/convexity for medical responses, as precisely and formally as possible https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf pic.twitter.com/WS3PZqjy9L Permalink 8:30 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 When I hear “data driven” I smell mistaking absence for evidence for evidence of absence, a la Pinker.https://twitter.com/JonHaidt/status/734403700362481667 Permalink 8:27 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Bill Gates is not a risk scientist & not a logician;”data driven” meaningless for complex systems/hidden risks w/Turkey Problems @JonHaidt Permalink 8:23 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Bjorn Lomborg is a dangerous charlatan. If you keep him on campus you shd also have fortune tellers & palm readers.https://twitter.com/jonhaidt/status/733614770637524993 Permalink 12:58 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Supreme rigor of the Russian school of probability: they dealt in inequalities not identities @philipbstarkpic.twitter.com/LubP6jkZUJ Permalink 2:30 PM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Clearly, Donaldo is not interventionist. Much of the rest, in foreign policy, becomes a detail.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/734066896794963968 Permalink 10:08 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Everything one does to hide intellectual dishonesty increases dishonesty. When caught lying, @amonck, confess. @Sartor1836 @WLTSchirano Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Liar Adrian Monck, when caught, kept changing the story “not in TBS”, “not in Chapter x”, “not on page x”, etc. @WLTSchirano @amonck Permalink 9:24 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb MD for “public engagement” @ Davos,Adrian Monck @amonck repeating “no ref to Popper” in T Black Swan. There are 53 mentions of Popper. Liar. Permalink 8:40 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb This tells you the author is a journo. @Confusezeuspic.twitter.com/E8v189RCxl Permalink 6:25 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Question: To become a mathematican 1- Work w/operators & functionals not just functions 2- in dual spaces 3- measure in proofs 4- what else? Permalink 5:31 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Same Joseph Stiglitz who said FNMAe had no chance of blowing up. Why we need to close econ departments & restart.https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/733871589536628736 Permalink 5:24 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb It is not just a single tweet that will get Mr Wolfers in trouble #nontrivial … @MadBurry @JustinWolfers @HillaryClinton @bill_easterly Permalink 4:58 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb In probability space, how tail eventsmore effective for threshold dependent outcomes #Medicine @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/zNy1YSAFNH Permalink 4:55 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb How variability can me more effective/more economical @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/s91lyXDYnP Permalink 4:29 AM – 21 May 2016

@wrathofgnon “Modernity: we created youth without heroism, age without wisdom, and life without grandeur.”— Nassim Nicholas Talebpic.twitter.com/pdFza8MpTi Permalink 5:26 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb …unless you are running for office. Permalink 2:17 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Rule: never immediately attribute to terrorism what can more easily be first explained by incompetence.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/733762983629840385 Permalink 1:59 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb The Incerto as a Multidisciplinary project in Probability: how to figure out that things link together.pic.twitter.com/KQ9eIn8pIN Permalink 12:34 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb For more technical explanation why retire Standard Deviation https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/standarddev.pdf https://twitter.com/newsycombinator/status/733674236410265602 Permalink 11:21 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Formalizing #Antifragility in Medicine: Putting together stuff/making notation uniform for @markomankapic.twitter.com/h58PnG7BjY Permalink 8:56 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Statement “economics is abt making all of us better off” means “economics is abt making ALL economists [bureaucrats/empty suits] better off” Permalink 7:40 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Mark you are tooooo much in a hurry. Interesting things take some time. @GuruAnaerobic @JustinWolfers Permalink 5:28 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb When someone @justinwolfers living frm charitable contributions judges the knowledge of businessmen #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/733477369852231680 Permalink 5:13 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Wolfers @JustinWolfers & I will soon have an entertaining (possibly one-sided) discussion of probability theory @theYoungerPitt Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Students saying “fat tails” instead of “cheese” at partypic.twitter.com/8pZjuWvYsP Permalink 3:34 PM – 19 May 2016

@nntaleb As predicted Donaldo having secured thenomination is now going for the left wing votes. Brilliant!https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/732893573365010432 Permalink 6:23 PM – 18 May 2016

@nntaleb This fellow, it now transpired, also works for Monsanto. Explains methods in (failed) smear campaign against me.http://nyti.ms/1wOx2Fq Permalink 11:23 AM – 18 May 2016

@beachvetlbc Evidence is- there are NO HUMAN studies to support GMO safety claims & remaining animal studies don’t either @mindlessfunk @kevinfolta Permalink 3:29 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The full text is at http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/significance.pdf @RodBerne Permalink 2:45 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb A summary of our problem with the junk statistics of Pinker.pic.twitter.com/DJlsTVM8eQ Permalink 2:40 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb I am not a UK taxpayer, so I cannot ethically voice an opinion for which I pay no price if wrong. #SkinintheGamehttps://twitter.com/Sapere_vivere/status/732678594988740609 Permalink 2:08 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Looks like the Incerto is finally going to be ONE book (in one boxset)! Don’t tell my publisher I showed it!pic.twitter.com/F8S4fQW4es Permalink 2:00 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The Holy Roman Empire was 1) not Roman, 2) not Holy, and 3) not an Empire. @sevanslux Permalink 8:34 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The Roman Empire is centrally a Mediterranean culture, structure, way of being, etc. “Europe” is a much later thingyhttps://twitter.com/CultureHouse/status/732593649704374276 Permalink 8:31 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb A clearer point of #Antifragile @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/Yr3ltKbmAW Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Wolfers will soon discover that doing probability right is much much harder than it looks. @iMetaldog @JustinWolfers Permalink 7:23 AM – 17 May 2016

@ZbraPntedDonky @nntaleb @mpigliucci @PembertonT Whenever someone leads off “With I haven’t read the book but”, prepare for pretentious piffle. Permalink 4:57 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Pigliucci has the knee jerk reaction of the academic rat: dismiss w/o knowing. Not scholarly @ZbraPntedDonky @mpigliucci @PembertonT Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb It is in Diogenes Laertius (tons of references) https://www.google.com/#tbm=bks&hl=en&q=zeno+of+citium+maritime+loans+diogene+laertius @mpigliucci strikes me as a rationalistic ignoramus @PembertonT Permalink 4:53 AM – 17 May 2016

@zerohedge Nassim Taleb’s “Shillary vs The Donald” Cheat Sheethttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-16/nassim-talebs-shillary-vs-donald-cheat-sheet Permalink 4:20 PM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Dear Mr @JustinWolfers do your papers on betting/long shots take account of these biases? Couldn’t find.Thank you.pic.twitter.com/Se3PPSPjQy Permalink 4:01 PM – 16 May 2016

@CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb Will this (lazy way) become a 21st century way? Permalink 11:27 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb If you believe that crank Falkenstein, here is something for you http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html @z31r4m @Napoleonlegal Permalink 8:42 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Latin du Jour: Where I discover that “asinus asinum fricat” (donkey rubs donkey)translates to “Salma quotes Sabrina” https://twitter.com/BanPaidMedia Permalink 6:46 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/What I mean by rigorous is not making assumptions/ certainties when there is uncertainty. Shillary offers certainties, Trump fewer ones. Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Used a one-tailed dist for x @HarryhongHong @markomankapic.twitter.com/uZkV4omqAg Permalink 4:49 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb How we transfer from dose response to probability space. Param a controls fatness of tails. @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/xsUi5afFIu Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Hillary and Bush have done the most to harm minority populations in the Levant & Iraq since Genghis Khan. @hopps3 Permalink 4:46 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Bernie v. Trump I go Bernie because his domestic policies won’t go through and his foreign policies are clearer @BoustanyMazen Permalink 3:39 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Comparing outcomes and foreign policy for Trump vs Hillary in a more rigorous waypic.twitter.com/ujwQS3iXmb Permalink 3:20 PM – 15 May 2016

@GuruAnaerobic @nntaleb Press hav just done this with Boris Johnson – “Boris has compared EU to Hitler!”. Yet this is what he said:pic.twitter.com/J3M2sNUvtD Permalink 1:02 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb We need @holland_tom: From Caesar to Herakles Rome had 7 full centuries of domination of Med, vs ~100 y as a Republic @JohnMinehan1 Permalink 11:34 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb So, Charlatan Noah @Noahpinion, sorry, but web won’t be a hospitable place for strawmanning/intellectual dishonesty.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/731294077006848006 Permalink 10:09 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Tactic by journos: catch them committing straw man they gang up strawman more portraying you “thin skinned”, as this imbecile @TimOBrien Permalink 9:18 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb How Journos are marketing Trump.pic.twitter.com/kTqyX1GT1X Permalink 8:09 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb This summarizes how we can introduce a formal view of fragility in Medicine. Any comments? @markomankapic.twitter.com/3FLXaatSNj Permalink 7:04 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb 3) If I had to pick the persons in power the most ignorant of complexity/interactions: Henry Kissinger & Hillary Clinton-Monsanto-Malmaison Permalink 8:22 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb 2) I am not saying the US needs an emperor, I am saying the US to stay a true republic should be noninterventionist.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/731684287355981824 Permalink 8:20 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Fact du jour: Rome was the dominant empire & a republic for a short period, 3rd punic war to Rubicon ~90 years. Permalink 8:15 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Sorry. Blocking was done automatically when the PR firm Ketchum was harrassing me; all followers of blocked were autoblocked. @Chris_arnade Permalink 7:14 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Surviving traders can think clearly. Others I am never sure except when I see the math/formal reasoning. Skin in the game. @learnfromerror Permalink 6:30 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb This guy has an admirable behavior: he hates my guts & I blocked him. He should be a trader if he isn’t one already.https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/731593316198846464 Permalink 5:32 PM – 14 May 2016

@AmuseChimp would @Noahpinion be as much of a bullshitter if duels still existed? Permalink 5:12 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Lost all respect for Petraeus: at SALT he said wem shd be forgiving w/SaudiBabaria re 9/11 as “an ally”. Bureaucrats are Morally Nauseating. Permalink 5:12 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb The point is not just the 28 pages linking to Saudi Barbaria, it is what has been taking place SINCE then.https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/731179284203769856 Permalink 5:09 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Retribution should be rare, but when you do it, go for the jugular.https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/731630974740631552 Permalink 5:04 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Five hours left to vote on how to deal with Charlatan Noah Smith @Noahpinionhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/731294077006848006 Permalink 12:44 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb This is exactly what I meant. @markmadsen @swardleypic.twitter.com/haN8RMiOY5 Permalink 10:20 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Central limit works slowly in the real world: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/fattails.html @urcum62 @financequantpic.twitter.com/7MYU9w52L5 Permalink 7:39 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Central limit works very slowly for finite variance infinite higher moments such as cubic @urcum62 @financequantpic.twitter.com/DbncpwkpUM Permalink 7:37 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb I never threated. I act first as with Charlatan @noahpinion then threaten when finished. @Fight_Whisperer Permalink 7:28 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb A generalized sigmoid curve for dose-response in Medicine. Has anyone seen such generalization in lit? @markomankapic.twitter.com/vq3KoT0r4p Permalink 6:55 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony rarely reacts but when he does so he makes up for it and never stops until the fellows goes into hiding @PaulSkallas @Noahpinion Permalink 6:34 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb If Charlatan Noah Smith @noahpinion smears again http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html I should expose him with what multiplier? Permalink 6:24 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Balkanization works Balkanization stabilizes Balkanization reduces oppression of minorities @yaneerbaryam @WLTSchirano @joshua_landis Permalink 2:54 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Remember: Turks killed more minorities after their “Westernization” than pripr. Modernism. @davefobare @GrkStav @yaneerbaryam @joshua_landis Permalink 2:08 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Secularism failed in the Levant & Turkey. Best to do an @yaneerbaryam “better fences make better neighbors”. Decentralize! @joshua_landis Permalink 1:48 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb If you smell what I smell there are 17 million Alevis in Turkey. Trad they conceal their faith. So expect more…https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/731219043240173569 Permalink 1:29 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Question: Do non-initially convex dose-response functions exist in nature? #Medicine #Antifragile @markomankapic.twitter.com/QcAqUkJqiz Permalink 12:34 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Second edition of The Bed of Procrustes @JohnDCookpic.twitter.com/FzDGAom67o Permalink 8:33 AM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Solution to the Gibrat vs Mandelbrot problem: When bounded, locally power laws have lognormal tails. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1510.06731.pdf @financequant Permalink 7:28 AM – 13 May 2016

Smear Artists, Cauchy, SALT, Zipf Plot, Long Shot Bias, Random Matrices, Diderot, ZeroHedge

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@nntaleb Las Vegas: Explained fragility as concavity: Mix a $2,000 bottle of wine with a $10 one. The 2 bottles will be worth less than $1,005 each. Permalink 8:31 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Explained more technically why investors can’t get the alpha of the market https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf and on BBG TVhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/730836349004091392 Permalink 4:39 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb When Charlatan @Noahpinion you unite with other charlatans & trolls, I will also unite them with you. Kapish? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html Permalink 3:26 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb So if you claim some is not expert about a given subject, better know something about *that* subject. Kapish? @diane1859 Permalink 3:11 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb You know nothing abt physics yet claimed the subject was limited outside finance, not noticing your BS https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=antifragile+physics++OR+biology&btnG=&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C29 @diane1859 Permalink 3:08 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb The full paper https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/recurse.pdf https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/730878658261438464 Permalink 2:57 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb A list of smear artists and why it is necessary to expose a very small number of people. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html Permalink 2:23 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Las Vegas: Difference between ensemble probability and time probability under tail risk.http://bloom.bg/1WsQpRb Permalink 12:05 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb at SALT in Las Vegas, only person in jeans (no tie). Taleb Compares Monetary Policy to Drugs http://bloom.bg/1THZQ8L via @business Permalink 10:50 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Many use statistical distributions a la @saPinker, w/o understanding probability, like parrots memorize sentences. @DrCirillo @financequant Permalink 10:48 AM – 12 May 2016

@financequant @DrCirillo @nntaleb Academic now but started out as trader/investor managing own+firm capital: skin in the game trains the bullshit detector Permalink 6:46 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Every model that has layering uncertainty (error on error) ends up with power law @DrCirillo @financequantpic.twitter.com/1SGaB4WTOQ Permalink 6:42 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Can confirm not true: Cauchy is not the only smooth survival function.pic.twitter.com/02FJjLxgJ3 Permalink 6:06 AM – 12 May 2016

@GMWatch Kevin Folta explained to Monsanto how they should fund his project so that it would not have to be publicly reportedhttp://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0512-thacker-furberg-transparency-science-20160512-story.html Permalink 5:40 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Found the Platonic distribution on R (i.e. “smooth”) that is neither fat tailed nor thin tailed.pic.twitter.com/iPGg41nGwe Permalink 5:40 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Relax. We had an actor w/Alzheimer in the White House and many people claim things went v. well. A surviving real estate developer is picnic Permalink 9:00 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb Try to talk to a stranger without signaling your status & see how pleasant you will be to him/her. This is how salespeople operate. Permalink 1:36 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb Today in my SALT talk I am showing the 2 flaws in Goetzmann’s paper. 1) Lucretius problems, 2) Mistake of ergodicity. @WGoetzmann Permalink 1:18 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb I also thought Goetzman knew something about probability distributions @WGoetzmannhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/720989442194960384 Permalink 1:15 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb 1) I thought Goetzmann knew Noah Smith is a charlatan http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html @WGoetzmann Permalink 1:12 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb To escape the Las Vegas surroundings, dip into mathematics/space of functions with certain properties:http://math.stackexchange.com/q/1780800/88078?stw=2 Permalink 5:20 AM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb Ethical rule: you can only turn down an honor or a prize privately, never publicly. Permalink 3:25 PM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb “Shortcuts lead to vice, the long road to virtue”: Compendaria res improbitas, virtus longa. (Optimization is the mother of all collapses) Permalink 12:42 PM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb Europa was the daughter of a Phoenician king. @noairbag @holland_tom @classicsforall Permalink 11:51 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb In 4th C Athens Sidonians were not considered metics and had same rights as Athenians. @holland_tom @classicsforall Permalink 11:20 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb Not a single person who contests that Leb speak Semitic dialect descended from Aramaic speaks Aramaic @G_Exercitus http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm Permalink 7:48 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb A glimpse of our book on fat tails… our graphical book on fat tails.https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/730035253365100545 Permalink 7:03 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb The illusion is to call any Semitic dialect that is not Hebrew as “Arabic” when speaker knows Arabic not Aramaic.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/730005747640242176 Permalink 6:53 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb A reporter knows the inside of evil Monsanto http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-thacker/peeling-back-the-curtain-on-monsanto_b_9867902.html # via @HuffPostGreen Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb Acondition to me a member of Diplomatic Corp is defect in logical wiring (Samantha Power, Clinton, this idiot): http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2016/may/06/us-ambassador-to-hungary-overthrow-assad-let-in-refugees-and-fight-russiaor-else/#.VzHQ-umpfmQ.twitter Permalink 5:17 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb Δεν είναι αραβικά αλλά Δυτική ή Ανατολική Αραμαϊκάhttps://twitter.com/cymoec/status/729962813376987136 Permalink 5:05 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb I’d rather live in a place where nothing makes sense but things work rather than a place where things make sense but don’t work #Antifragile Permalink 2:19 PM – 9 May 2016

@nntaleb So now we are announcing our advanced certificate August 10-14 Stony Brook. http://realworldrisk.com/advanced_mini-certificate_in_risk Permalink 1:25 PM – 9 May 2016

@nntaleb 24 anni di pratica Galabrez, una lingua comunemente noto come “Calabrese” con il barbiere Tony.pic.twitter.com/72lq2ZHEyQ Permalink 12:53 PM – 9 May 2016

@nntaleb More on How to Price Long Shots https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/LongShot.nb.pdf pic.twitter.com/SYQgNFccMW Permalink 10:51 AM – 9 May 2016

@DrCirillo It’s extremely alarming that so many scientists do not know how to correctly design a statistical test and how to interpret its results. Permalink 8:31 AM – 9 May 2016

@nntaleb A pedagogical Monte Carlo explanation (corrected).pic.twitter.com/zNCUKPU320 Permalink 1:25 PM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb cont the declining case (fragility) @markomanka @Teheozavrpic.twitter.com/4HykkYZ1aw Permalink 12:43 PM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Next, an aggressive claim that EVERYTHING in nature can be expressed as a sum of S functions. @markomanka @Teheozavrpic.twitter.com/aNdR5Cti34 Permalink 12:28 PM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Final @markomankapic.twitter.com/t4yxutUnwo Permalink 7:41 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Corrected 2 typos @Teheozavr @markomankapic.twitter.com/UfIBopb0Ve Permalink 6:39 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Statement of *a priori* truths in medicine, (but not 17th C. style), for @markomanka’s Springer Handbook. Mistakes?pic.twitter.com/KIQDxGoB9t Permalink 6:27 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Uncertainty about probability raises the value of long shots in proportion to the variance [metaprobability] @matthewsyed Permalink 5:30 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Some explanations of the Leicester payoff from notes: the “Long Shot Bias” seems to be miscalculated by econs.pic.twitter.com/HDAAXASQ6w Permalink 5:18 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Always nice to see books of Tom Holland @holland_tom on bookshelves at parties.pic.twitter.com/1bAe0ug62g Permalink 5:32 PM – 7 May 2016

@nntaleb Why we are uberizing education. This system is strating to collapse.https://twitter.com/JonHaidt/status/728945780086738944 Permalink 7:28 AM – 7 May 2016

@nntaleb One can solve complicated mathematical ineq. by tinkering before proof. Thank you @WolframResearch https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/728660069538267136 @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 12:48 PM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb Is anyone covering shorts in HLF? It is still slightly hard to borrow.pic.twitter.com/mbrV7RJlrl Permalink 12:03 PM – 6 May 2016

@CutTheKnotMath http://www.cut-the-knot.org/arithmetic/algebra/InequalityFromGazetaMatematicaMarch2016_4.shtml pic.twitter.com/CVQWWg147t Permalink 10:03 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb The candidates of @BeirutMadinati. Not one of them wearing a tie. http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2016/05/06/au-liban-un-souffle-nouveau-en-politique_4914845_3218.html pic.twitter.com/39yhhKuQJY Permalink 7:23 AM – 6 May 2016

@SwarajyaMag Swarajya Quote Of The Day.pic.twitter.com/lg3FsaD3SP Permalink 11:12 PM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb A reminder to vote for @BeirutMadinati On Sunday. http://beirutmadinati.com/candidates/?lang=en (although I am 3rd generation Beiruti I am registered in Amioun) Permalink 6:12 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb For the earlier use of doxa in Classical & Preclassica Greek: clearly opinion http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.04.0057%3Aentry%3Ddoke%2Fw Permalink 5:36 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb Allora: Epistemic Belief => Science Pisteic Belief => Trust (Religion, Legends, Literature) Doxastic belief => Skin in the Game Belief Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb To understand religious “belief”: evolution of δόξα from “opinion” to “glorification”. http://biblehub.com/greek/1391.htm pic.twitter.com/mhdft9MpLp Permalink 5:22 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb The best definition of a commons: a space in which you are treated by others the way you treat them. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153814390523375 Permalink 5:05 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb Спасибо! Russia Stages Classical Concert in Recaptured Palmyra Amphitheater – http://abcn.ws/1WL3u78 via @ABC Permalink 12:57 PM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb The PDF of the book will be free. Like all our papers. And Silent Risk. Another advantage of self publishing.https://twitter.com/Nuopb/status/728228386716389378 Permalink 7:23 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb Writing a tutorial book on Fat Tails w/@DrCirillo. W/self-publishing we control price ~$20 & paper quality. Shd we? Permalink 7:18 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman: “statistical incompetence at some sufficient level becomes indistinguishable from fraud”. (paraphrased) Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb When Brian Eno sent me a chain letter about Black Swans and I put Stewart Brand next.https://twitter.com/oleary_brandon/status/728209718187954177 Permalink 6:14 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb I am intolerant, intolerant, intolerant of intellectual fraud. The world is run by ethically intolerant minorities. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf Permalink 5:16 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb There is a whole page for our Precautionary Principle https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html @impcapital @stewartbrand @MKM_Abdul Permalink 4:18 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb I don’t mind people who talk “long run”, but some exploit our desire for sustainability to INCREASE risk. @stewartbrand @MKM_Abdul Permalink 3:44 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb Stewart Brand @stewartbrand is a dangerous, dangerous, dangerous fraud! @MKM_Abdul Permalink 3:43 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tails du Jour: Random Matrices do not obey Wigner’s semicircle law; effect on #BigData http://mathworld.wolfram.com/WignersSemicircleLaw.html pic.twitter.com/uDJzC0TOlM Permalink 3:34 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb “Delusional” a month ago. Expect more stuff like that.https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/718836449424977920 Permalink 2:47 PM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb Another way to see central limit in action! Or why the CLT fails for power laws <2https://twitter.com/drcirillo/status/727860367330807809 Permalink 10:55 AM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb Monsanto is about as dirty as a corporation can be.Forced a paper to fire cartoonist. Note they own Hillary/Shillaryhttps://twitter.com/KenMcCarthy/status/727873276563881984 Permalink 8:28 AM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb Anyone heeding journos for next w/Trump has a mental defect, given journos’ blindness in ENTIRE episode (“matter of weeks until T deflates”) Permalink 4:20 AM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb The systematic wrecking of the old order now spreading to Beirut. Please support @BeirutMadinati for the elections.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/706823370575368192 Permalink 3:40 AM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb Golf: an activity that was banned in Sparta for “mollifying” its practitioners.https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/727557090420613120 Permalink 11:30 AM – 3 May 2016

@DrCirillo The fence paradox: we feel safe, we are not. Financial regulations are like fences: they just hide risk.pic.twitter.com/6WHRbTQLuG Permalink 8:53 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb Our NY June Certif. prog has already >44 pple; we are preparing a v. technical version August 15-19 in Stony Brook. http://realworldrisk.com/inaugural_program_comments Permalink 5:26 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb We expect Jews in pre-Islamic Arabia. Here A school of 7th century Syriac writers in Qatar. Mario Kozah @mariokozahpic.twitter.com/xoZKC838dk Permalink 4:42 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb P.S. You see from above that these posts (written in 10 min) have 300K viewees, > most NYT articles. The press is increasingly irrelevant. Permalink 4:34 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb TTIP: Lobbyists control bureaucrats; citizens react. We can’t be easily fooled. These documents could kill TTIPhttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ttip-leak-could-spell-the-end-of-controversial-trade-deal-say-campaigners-a7009896.html Permalink 1:40 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb No, BS vendor Sharro, some pple characterize phenomena *before* they happen.& they do so scientifically, not w/blogshttps://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/727407722807853060 Permalink 1:37 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb Email:”Why do you spell Kapish instead of capisce?” A: Kapish,like prozhut & gabagool aren’t in Italian,but in Kalabrez still spoken in NY. Permalink 5:32 PM – 2 May 2016

@MarcosCarreira https://twitter.com/romenesko/status/727167515760201728 cc @nntaleb Permalink 10:42 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Se volevo insultarti in italiano ti avrei chiamato un “coglione”. @Keynesblog @SanguineEmpiric Permalink 7:39 AM – 2 May 2016

@thickopedia Rather than create conditions for organic innovation & growth, buraucrats think they can make them with subsidies.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/727090878108540929 Permalink 5:53 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Basic income:a necessity when robots get the jobs & their designers get the shekels. Like Athens but slaves=robots @wimgrommen @Johnicholas Permalink 5:27 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Soul in the game. @pareekhjain Permalink 5:02 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb In other words it is not because successful innovations have had funding that there is a causal link. Innovate first, fund later. Permalink 4:47 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb The link betw investment and innovation is very tenuous, mostly in the minds of bureaucrats https://www.facebook.com/13012333374/posts/10153701042473375 pic.twitter.com/NY63P0PcOP Permalink 4:02 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Doesn’t say public is even better at detecting BS vendors: least prestigious are PR people, journos, politicianshttps://twitter.com/Forbes/status/726838850476228608 Permalink 3:52 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Max Abrahams knows his stuff. He rediscovered things compatible with minority rules, renormalization, etc.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/726917109553455104 Permalink 4:36 PM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb Anyone who thinks you need “investments” to fund “innovation” is an empty suit B-School prof. Apple/FB/MSFT, etc.https://twitter.com/KenMcCarthy/status/726894285329711104 Permalink 3:48 PM – 1 May 2016

@GhassanDahhan @nntaleb An art critic is not an artist. Yet people who write books about philosophy believe they’re philosophers. Permalink 7:49 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb Why ISIS will eventually run Saudi Arabia: royal family violates rules of human cultism & uses Wahabism for power.https://twitter.com/semperfidem2004/status/726732506549096448 Permalink 4:34 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb There are philosophers who never wrote anything; & there are a lot of writers of philosophy who aren’t philosophers.https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/726709583184584704 Permalink 4:02 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb The Baath Party in Syria’s “Arabization” program ignored the 40+ Syrian philosophers who wrote in Greek.pic.twitter.com/hnxB5H58CW Permalink 3:53 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria’s billboard in Lebanon “Greatness of KSA frm the *greatness* of its men”; 3 “great” royals #notsatirepic.twitter.com/9VmTB8ikMC Permalink 3:38 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/726036335610335232 Permalink 2:59 AM – 1 May 2016

@Jeff_Fine @nntaleb @MaxAbrahms @samfbiddle @worldpeace @WapoCatpic.twitter.com/QzeWC43X00 Permalink 1:41 PM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Comment: I will invest in the business of efficient demolition of post 1960 structures as they will be replaced w/more fractal architecture. Permalink 12:57 PM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Thank God Alfred Nobel discovered dynamite. #Lindyeffecthttps://twitter.com/RemiSimasius/status/726485602561081344 Permalink 12:55 PM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Xristos Anesti to all Orthodox people & others who celebrate! — Mshu7o d’qam min qabro [in West. Aramaic] Msi7 qam min qabro [in Levantine] Permalink 10:10 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The house on the top right is the ancestral home of the australian governor Marie Bashir (my grandfather’s cousin) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marie_Bashir Permalink 7:21 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I vote for Douma as the most attractive village in North Lebanon.pic.twitter.com/QfE7WvMZkI Permalink 7:15 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Probability du Jour: The empirical distribution as a Brownian Bridge.pic.twitter.com/eylDC4EzvT Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 “Diderot: “…people tell me that I have the air of a man perpetually seeking something he lacks”. #ModernPagan.pic.twitter.com/x8k9O6kesB Permalink 4:36 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb People don’t get false positives are *necessary* to have results. The alternative is is more terrorism acts.https://twitter.com/imraansiddiqi/status/726217800411279360 Permalink 3:18 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You can tell real scientists from CV-builders: the real thing tell you what they are *trying* to figure out, not what they *did* in career. Permalink 3:17 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It is remarkable how little it costs to buy Washington. As Monsanto realized, return >>> than R&D.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/726187428587905024 Permalink 4:20 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb No surprise. Remember the lowly standards of Bloomberg as they did not retract this http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html @GTCost Permalink 3:33 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I do not delete my tweets and do not fear you journos. They autodelete >90d. Kapish? Do your F*** homework, journo. @caitlindewey Permalink 3:19 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb DISCOVERY DU JOUR. Orthodox lent allows squid/squid ink! It is vegan, but allows squid ink! Discovered on last day! http://www.assumptionaz.org/studies_in_orthodoxy/lenten_resources/fast_guidelines Permalink 2:32 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 For discussion… It is a very casual observation. First, is it true for all Lebanon or just Koura? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koura_District Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mystery? In N. Lebanon, shrines for St George in Greek-Orthodox areas, for Mary in Maronite ones #pagansubstratepic.twitter.com/eUysTftzp6 Permalink 12:41 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Since twitter accounts of Syrian rebels is run by a Saudi-funded PR firm in DC, what can we expect from Wstrn media?https://twitter.com/soshiflick/status/726092652932960258 Permalink 10:03 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Try to remember when reading anything written by a journalist (especially a science journalist) that he is *by definition* an impostor. Permalink 8:34 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I thank @BeirutMadinati for bringing a hope of governance & call on the Lebanese diaspora to help them. #BeirutMadinati Permalink 8:18 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because we buy oil from Saudi Barbaria, what they do in Yemen is OK. Russia is “autoritarian”. Hypocrites. @robggill @zerohedge Permalink 7:45 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb ZeroHedge: last bastion outside the stamp of the bureaucratestablishment. Bloomberg (again) failed a hacket job.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/full-story-behind-bloombergs-attempt-unmask-zero-hedge Permalink 7:25 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb He is right: Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison represents everything that’s fake in governance-free bureaucratistan.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/726045073775828992 Permalink 7:02 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The reason commerce flourished in the Levant was thanks to Francis I’s deal with the Sultan (“echelles du Levant”) @peterfrankopan Permalink 12:39 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Encountered @peterfrankopan’s relative (ancstr?), emissary on the silk road, in the 1526 Franco-Ottoman Alliance. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Frangipani Permalink 12:34 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A7san shi tele3 min jdid 3enna bi Lebnen w bled el Shem #BeirutMadinati sawwtulon! 3enna amal 3a musta2balna. Sawwto la #BeirutMadinati Permalink 12:05 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Yes see Taleb and Ruffie, 1965: Etudes hemotypiques des ethnies Libanaises @faizkatt @raytheonunited Permalink 12:04 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Where we show that the reciprocal of some fat tailed is…Gaussian!pic.twitter.com/wOyLRurGo5 Permalink 4:09 PM – 28 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Admonish your friends in private; paise them in public. Distrust anyone who does the reverse. (Secrete amicos admone; lauda palam.) Permalink 4:16 AM – 28 Apr 2016

@jdoleiv @nntaleb twitter allows me to follow skin in the game participants rather than just sideline journos. Game changer. Permalink 2:46 AM – 28 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Correction (3d version) L’3am yitjahalak mush 3am yensak Permalink 1:11 AM – 27 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Correction: L’3am yitjahalak mush 3am yijhalak Permalink 12:32 AM – 27 Apr 2016

@nntaleb L’3am yijhalak mush 3am yijhalak [Translation is open to improvement]pic.twitter.com/P7ixz7Z6rC Permalink 12:27 AM – 27 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Latkazzeb 3al kizzeb Yfakkerak bitsad2o. لتكزب علكزاب يفاكراك بتسدقواpic.twitter.com/5qX83MfP8t Permalink 11:49 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My policy is to block anyone who mentions “proof” and “aphorism” in the same breath. Makes life cleaaaaaaaaaaarer!https://twitter.com/alexandersafir/status/725209424323743744 Permalink 11:27 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb بتعور الطايش بمعرفتوا [Attempts to translate into Levantine]pic.twitter.com/DD8OSl6eSh Permalink 11:13 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb يلي بعرقلك شوي بأخرك كتير Permalink 11:06 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb اول شي نقبل انوا ١) الشامي(المشرقي) لغه مش “لهجة” ٢) اللغة الشامية اعتق من العربي! (ولو فيا ٣٠ \١٠٠ كلمات عربي) ٣) اللغة بتبلش بالأدب Permalink 10:45 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb بقبل الحرف السامي للشامي (هوي اسرع للكتابة) بس لل إنترنت بددك تستعمل اللاتيني حتا مايكتبو بل انكليزي @AssalehAmer @adnanhobalah @ZJourei Permalink 10:39 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Kill shi bi3ar2l shwayy bi2a55er ktiyr @AssalehAmer @adnanhobalah @crackmandem @ZJoureir Permalink 10:04 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Iza baddak ahl el balad yektbo bil-legha 3a facebook w social media sahhillun yeha. @adnanhobalah @ZJoureir Permalink 2:15 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Iza me7tar 3a kitebet elshami bil7arf el-latine shouf el inklise “dough” “rough” w kelmet heik. @ZJoureir @adnanhobalah Permalink 1:28 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb For potential slayers of evil dragons such as Monsanto Ralph Nader’s citizen advocacy group mega-event May 23-26 https://www.breakingthroughpower.org/ Permalink 5:11 AM – 26 Apr 2016

@linaadali John the Grammarian as the Byzantine ambassador to the Abbasids before caliph al-Ma’mūn (left) & emperor Theophilospic.twitter.com/KRzEibb7St Permalink 7:26 AM – 24 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Said values include the firm belief that Shiites & *others* are deviant.https://twitter.com/ArabianVeritas/status/724587227012063232 Permalink 7:12 AM – 25 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Debunking some nonsense in the measurement of inequality. Final results. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/GINI-1.pdf pic.twitter.com/Lcwyo9bFO2 Permalink 11:50 PM – 24 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Palm Sunday in Damascus 7 km from ISIShttps://twitter.com/AssalehAmer/status/724243496329076738 Permalink 8:50 AM – 24 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A Graeco- Roman temple 2 miles outside Amioun. No pagan worshippers this morning except for yours truly.pic.twitter.com/acehLKOwk7 Permalink 2:52 AM – 24 Apr 2016

@nntaleb From experience, never trust the UK press.https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/724149265916936192 Permalink 1:37 AM – 24 Apr 2016

Psychology, Noah Smith, Kapish?, Saudi Barbaria, Bernie, Ottomans, Yugo, Lebanon | Twitter

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@MaxAbrahms The problem isn’t that Hillary makes foreign policy mistakes, but that she makes the same mistake over & over again:https://twitter.com/capreble/status/723849697245442048 Permalink 5:32 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb بمالطه بيكتبوا لغه ساميه بالحرف اللاتيني @adnanhobalah @ZJoureir Permalink 11:47 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb La2. Sa3iid 3akl kan ma7sour billebnene. Ana bilshami (ye3n3 el suriyye w se2er el mashre2 bima biyon el daffe elgharbiyye.) @ZJoureir Permalink 11:11 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/ mitlma el telyene ballash bi-Dante 3eyzin 7ada yektub adab bil-shami. Permalink 10:58 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb El3uroube wellgha el3arabiyye killa tezwir tari5e. El-shami ligha lawa7da bte2rab el-3arabe wel-arame, 3ayzin niktub kitub fiya latballesh. Permalink 10:55 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Kurzweil is not dangerous at all: the fool will give a test case of failure to outsmart opaque & complex systems.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/723909943796076546 Permalink 9:32 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fake kebbe: made out of a vegan paste (w/fennel) for Orthodox lent.pic.twitter.com/FWeAiJfTF8 Permalink 3:10 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Pleased to see the Arabic script phased out in Lebanon, mostly Christian areas. Next: replace Arabic by #Levantinepic.twitter.com/VGGkHiYGvI Permalink 3:01 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@Peepsqueak Turns out Scientific American is a Monsanto shill! http://huff.to/1Sp5mNQ |@nntaleb rt @PhonkArtpic.twitter.com/430C40CmKN Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mediterranean mezze (tapas) with local araq ouzo Beirut style. The Mediterranean is about small plates.pic.twitter.com/5a6UymSzLQ Permalink 11:17 AM – 21 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Letting the media monitor itself & influence policy is letting those at the bottom in both streetsmarts & schoolsmarts run the world. Permalink 1:57 AM – 21 Apr 2016

@Hayder_alKhoei From Pakistan to Mali, Saudi-financed madrasas have popped up and cultivate religious extremism & terrorism http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/21/opinion/obama-in-saudi-arabia-exporter-of-oil-and-bigotry.html #pt Permalink 10:29 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Information is like a *swelling* balloon. It grows with time.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/722591957030076416 Permalink 11:19 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Answer: If s[x]>0 for {x:F>1/2} => \int is >0. Background:The grrrreat M. Gell-Mann said work with prob outside [0,1]. It is just a weight! Permalink 5:23 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Said to be the Aramaic used by Egyptian admins. Countries didn’t switch to Ar. immed.;adapted Aramaic. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/718927788925804544 @HanySonbaty Permalink 5:17 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Achemenid Aramaic in Egypt (“Imperial Aramaic”) @HanySonbatypic.twitter.com/9gqjcsu42y Permalink 5:06 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Egypt spoke some Aramaic for ~1200 years before the Arab invasion. @HanySonbaty Permalink 4:50 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Now the core of the problem (still jetlagged!)pic.twitter.com/wbD8nXQZgB Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@adnanhobalah #syria @asadabukhalil @PierreABISAAB مش لازم نضل تاركينون يسرحوا و يمرحوا مدعي الخبره الاكيديميه ببلاد الشامhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/722835760160706561 Permalink 4:06 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb OK, first is true, second is false, but reveals an important inequality.pic.twitter.com/bQ3ZizKQ86 Permalink 4:25 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Aramean came to Egypt before Arabic (“mayya”, etc.) via the Persian invasion. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm @HanySonbaty Permalink 4:16 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Removed more typos (jet lag). Proved first one, second TK.pic.twitter.com/GwKiSBSPrS Permalink 4:11 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Deleted tweets with typos and added conditions.pic.twitter.com/4FSKZCdf6n Permalink 3:58 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 7akiyna a2rab 3al-Arame minel 3arabehttps://twitter.com/THE_47th/status/722916556334714880 Permalink 3:42 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Antifragility and scale.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/710513143387185152 Permalink 1:51 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I got tipped off when @janinedigi (innocently) tweeted atrocities by Assad that were pictures of children in Lybia.https://twitter.com/JacksonDiehl/status/722829299657494528 Permalink 11:12 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic: When a ME think tank defines itself as “nonpartisan”, it is funded by Saudi Barbari/other Wahabi states.pic.twitter.com/IxQ2Tqp3eT Permalink 10:14 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am just conveying what everyone who doesn’t have a Phd in bullshittology called pol sci knows.https://twitter.com/raheeln/status/722823972035936256 Permalink 10:07 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In Lebanon sipping arak & heard something to got me enraged at think thanks. How Saudi Arabia captured Washingtonhttp://www.vox.com/2016/3/21/11275354/saudi-arabia-gulf-washington?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=feature%3Atop&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter Permalink 10:04 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Debunking some spin about the Syrian warhttp://www.joshualandis.com/blog/presidents-al-assads-first-speech-an-insiders-account/ Permalink 9:05 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic. For a vacation place that’s not spoiled, not corrupt: no ski slopes, & no beaches. Permalink 7:21 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb To keep a balloon under water, you need to spend more & more energy.The DC lobbyist for Saudi Arabia can’t stop thishttp://nypost.com/2016/04/17/how-us-covered-up-saudi-role-in-911/ Permalink 6:05 PM – 19 Apr 2016

@DavidBCollum Lindsey Graham admits he’s a complete idiot/wuss/Saudi protectorhttps://twitter.com/thehill/status/722564703055167488 Permalink 5:06 PM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Someone saying “ethics is good for success” is missing the entire point of ethics. Permalink 9:10 AM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Saudi prince arrested in Leb for drug smugling. Saudis blackmailed Leb to release him. Leb said no, pull your $$.US will have same pride. Permalink 12:21 AM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb US says Saudi government has nothing to do w 9/11; only “members” of Saudi establ/Royal family that…run the placehttps://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/722251489494700032 Permalink 10:31 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am on my way to Beirut one of the very few places where Saudi Barbaria cannot reach me. Permalink 2:51 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is biggggg! They are progressively losing the state of denial that Saudi Arabia WAS indeed funding Jihadists.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/722172847351848961 Permalink 2:28 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb DEBATE: Ethical to give a women-only scholarship for the risk certificate? http://realworldrisk.com @stevenstrogatz Permalink 9:39 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The EU developed into a tool for the bureaucratic class and lobbyists, hence as such will blow up. @hughhopper Permalink 9:30 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) The point is that if the Treasury needs junk math to convince you to stay, they did not find real aguments against it. @hughhopper Permalink 9:28 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr @tomstafford, again I asked you for a SINGLE counterample of a psych paper that got my Th. 1. One single will do.https://twitter.com/tomstafford/status/721621901089579008 Permalink 9:04 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Observe in my expurgating the system of BS-operator @Noahpinion how ethics follow the tenacious minority rule http://fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf Permalink 8:04 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@zerohedge @nntaleb one reaction to the black swan piece http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-18/one-trader-finally-loses-it Permalink 7:41 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I did write that book. It is called Antifragile.https://twitter.com/EngineerDiet/status/722068382800035842 Permalink 7:27 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Even without fat tails” is like saying “assume you remove one’s head”. @noise_random @rorysutherland @CravenPartners @Gerald_Ashley Permalink 7:18 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Why the UK Treasury equations are, mathematically, BS:in Silent Risk @CravenPartners @rorysutherland @Gerald_Ashleypic.twitter.com/WoJrOH3lCi Permalink 6:11 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Page to protect pple from Noah Smith @noahpinion BS operator and troll wBloomberg megaphone http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html pic.twitter.com/6kaEwla8l6 Permalink 5:46 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Another oddity: the Ottomans until 1800s preserved Orthodoxy (deal w/Patriarch): Populations under them were Orth (Serbia vs Croatia) Permalink 5:42 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Indeed Machiavelli boasts of “bloodless wars”: knights had tough armor so were more like bar fights! technology=murder @alexapostolides Permalink 3:48 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My thesis director was a woman and there were 2 woman mathematicians on my committee. @stevenstrogatz Permalink 3:46 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nation State: Pre-unification of Italy battles were frequent but small e.g. Anghiari (~900 v.), Molinella (~600). WW1: 650,000 Italians died Permalink 3:33 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nero di Seppia. Last time before Orthodox Easter.pic.twitter.com/pLvxxQCQtk Permalink 4:57 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Not true. Not twice the intensity. More like … 10 times (part for those who are offensive to the general public).https://twitter.com/pauld1981/status/721810180162203648 Permalink 3:28 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We need to prevent Bloomberg from becoming a trolling platform https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/noah2.pdf @davidjshipley @noahpinionpic.twitter.com/TnlXHbHFxW Permalink 3:24 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Here is the recent rigorous examination of the Christians under Umayads: Not so rosy. https://oi.uchicago.edu/research/publications/lamine/lamine-1-christians-and-others-umayyad-state @BewilderedCopt @beshymike Permalink 2:25 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We know know that the Dhimi status was periodically rescinded, particularly under the abbasides @BewilderedCopt @beshymike Permalink 12:50 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Syria will have the same cyle as post Habsgurg Eastern Eur: after merger, Yugo back into more homogeneous states.https://twitter.com/sodronen/status/721760131743150081 Permalink 11:03 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A simple point in the article that explains why @Noahpinion failed his academic career.pic.twitter.com/7tINfCUHxi Permalink 10:54 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Historical rigor => comparing mores year by year: compare Ottomans 1480 to Europe 1480 (inquisition). Kapish? @drubald Permalink 10:36 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Irony of history:the more the Ottomans got Westernized,w/West structures/laws,the more they killed Christians @lilbabykeffiyeh @candela3paz Permalink 10:21 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In 1800s “The Mohammedan Wrld” was represented by a Greek FM.1980s:Egypt did not grant a Copt, Boutros-Ghali the rank of minister @beshymike Permalink 10:16 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Oddities of history: a Greek, Caratheodory Efendi (father of the mathematician) representing “the Mohamedan world”pic.twitter.com/awhReWggG2 Permalink 9:58 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Ottomans weren’t likeable; but Arabs were vastly more intolerant of Christians than the Ottomans. @beshymike @iShabi7a Permalink 9:47 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I vote for half of Bernie, for foreign policy.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/721733402714615808 Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Partly but remember Ottomans welcomed Sephardic Jews (Tessaloniki) & had Greek prime ministers. Not all black and white @lilbabykeffiyeh Permalink 9:11 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The very idea of Turkey as “nationality” was absent bef. Greek indep 1820 (even then, subjects), dev. after German and Italian unifications, Permalink 8:42 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You mean do NOT put probabilistic rigor into decision theory? @tomstafford Permalink 8:31 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nobody is saying Ottomans were social workers. But they tolerated minorities so long as there was $, unlike Turkish nationalists. @airdummer Permalink 8:19 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In Antifragile I discuss switch from imperial and tolerant Ottoman Empire to ethnic Turkish nationalism of late 19th Century with massacres. Permalink 8:12 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It Christian minorities have survived in the Levant, it is thanks to policies of the Ottoman empire. Reversal started with nation-states. Permalink 7:27 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Russia has nuclear weapons. The US has nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia has a large royal family with prediabetes. @Alea_ Permalink 6:28 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb And the Saudis already have a lot of gold,and Euro-based investments. They don’t have to sell $600 bn. And real estate…@sanatanabhasha Permalink 5:42 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Those who sell “precious” metals will receive … $$ it is a myth that money “leaves”, only price pressure @sanatanabhasha Permalink 5:37 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Lakens your paper is a verbose handwaving looping soup;I require rigorous mathematical presentation. @lakens @JPdeRuiter @Neuro_Skeptic Permalink 5:21 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@LaplaceHomeBoi @AdrianSterry @nntaleb @RudyHavenstein I propose the ‘NNT-value’. This measure the power of propagating bullsh*t until @nntaleb catch you Permalink 4:31 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Noah Smith @Noahpinion will resign from Bloomberg. He cannot use it a troll-platform @TonySandos @AdrianSterry @RudyHavenstein Permalink 3:37 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I could find a SINGLE book or paper in the psych of decisions that gets the point of Th 1. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf https://twitter.com/tomstafford/status/721621901089579008 Permalink 3:34 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Show a single COUNTEREXAMPLE of a psychology paper that does not violate the theorem 1. @jlmcht Permalink 3:33 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@AdrianSterry @RudyHavenstein @nntaleb NNT responds to assholes .0001% of the time, it’s just that instead of telling them to f*** off,he destroys them Permalink 2:35 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The other accounting pbm w/Saudi Arabia: by the time they start selling their reserves, now only $600b will be reduced by $300 bn Permalink 7:30 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Finally getting a compliment about Saudi Arabia.https://twitter.com/LongShortTrader/status/721525231173636096 Permalink 7:28 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Never hit the Obama administration, threatened by Saudi Arabia’s divestment, to ask: where will you put your $750bn? In Kuwaiti Dinars? Permalink 7:23 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Where we get more coherence from the Daily News than the “intellectual” NYT.https://twitter.com/GEsfandiari/status/721513453383524352 Permalink 7:10 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith were you”resigned” from Stony Brook for inability to do research or did you depart on your own? Was Bloomberg informed? @Noahpinion Permalink 6:07 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Added more to paper showing equity premium puzzle is miscalculated, an extension of Th 1. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf .pic.twitter.com/iZQuxGEpzV Permalink 3:42 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Democracy Shmemocracy, vague and gamable constructs. What matters is governance, absence of an agency problem, absence of rent seeking. Permalink 3:06 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms What’s amazing is how little Americans seem to care about Saudi involvement in 9/11, except for the widows https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/status/721451629644529664 . Permalink 2:37 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith so you wrote a critique of Karthik Arthreya’s book w/o having read it? “On the disgusting side” @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/UvSyrigQPU Permalink 2:12 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@Buy_Hold_Drink @nntaleb deals smackdown to @Noahpinion over shotty reporting. If reporters question the people, who questions the reporters? NN, that’s who Permalink 1:19 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith are there other books you’ve written abt w/o having read & if so, which ones? Or do you want someone else to reveal? @Noahpinion Permalink 1:11 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Noah Smith’s credibility is now gone (more TK) but by stopping at Bloomberg I would be letting down authors victimized by media. @Noahpinion Permalink 12:51 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@DFSalbatross @nntaleb there is nothing i enjoy more than seeing you go after people like this. of all applications of your philos, ethics most important Permalink 11:53 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So, Mr Smith, if someone asks you to mispresent something, and you complied, it ceases to be a misrepresentation? @Noahpinion Permalink 11:48 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Journos feel ENTITLED to write anything they can spin about you. Try to make them accountable & they freak out.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721392300446711808 Permalink 10:42 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So you mean the dean encouraged you to hide you were no longer prof. to gain credibility as columnist, Yes/No? @Noahpinion Permalink 10:39 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because I have the means, the audience & the will, I am morally obligated to vindicate authors terrorized by the press & make it accountable Permalink 10:10 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith, “a year leave?”. Your dean said in Jan: “he is not with us” & “he is not coming back”. Was he lying?https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721087624333492225 Permalink 10:02 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb OK, OK. Saints can be dangerous. So I prefer Saint Ron Paul to Saint Bernie though they have similar foreign policy.https://twitter.com/DoubleEagle49/status/721365398357020673 Permalink 8:52 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Not abt wrong but about being ETHICAL & fixing erroneous statements. Press is accountable. Kapish?@PaulThomasiii @Noahpinion @davidjshipley Permalink 8:43 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Breach of Journ Ethics by Bloomberg View & @Noahpinion; staff refusal to correct @davidjshipley cc:@MikeBloombergpic.twitter.com/kcDiYCud3c Permalink 8:25 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb An author *knows* if someone has read his/her book or bullshitting. In the case of Noah Smith it is blatant. @BenGoldN @Noahpinion Permalink 7:14 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@zerohedge @nntaleb he wrote a bunch of comments about ZH without actually having read any of it Permalink 6:20 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb They catching up to the fact that Noah Smith @noahpinion has written comments on The Black Swan without reading it.https://twitter.com/opento/status/721326705185570816 Permalink 6:19 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Try to mentally construct someone with the integrity of Bernie Sanders but with your political opinions. He raises standards! @saifedean Permalink 6:14 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Here is an explicit distribution of P-Hacking, as well as problems with power. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532v3 @JPdeRuiter @Neuro_Skeptic Permalink 6:13 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Sainthood: financially & personally uncorruptible, pure moral integrity. He can be right, or wrong, can’t be bought.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/721317569446178816 Permalink 5:59 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bernie Sanders has all the attributes of a secular saint. Regardless of the effects of his policies, he brings sainthood to public service. Permalink 5:41 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith tried to use his “academic” status to impart a scholarly credibility to his article. Scholarly he is not. @foxyforecaster @Noahpinion Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fighting terrorism while protecting perpetrators: The Obama admin compromises moral values: ever happened before?pic.twitter.com/byoc7bebB4 Permalink 5:02 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nachkari @LongShortTrader @nntaleb Noah is a partisan hack masking as an econ. He comes off as the archetypal econ that Nassim rails against Permalink 9:03 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Now a harder question, Mr Smith. Did you READ The Black Swan? Yes/No. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:39 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb But you should certaily be fired by any decent outfit for misrepresenting my ideas in The Black Swan in an article. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:27 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you say thay you are teaching at Stony Brook, there is no problem and I withdraw. Are you a professor there, Yes/No? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:25 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Back to the original question: why are you claiming to be at Stony Brook when you are not there? Why aren’t you answering? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:21 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It is only criminal to lie under oath or under some circumstances. Try to consult with legal before more bullshitting here. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:18 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If I ceased to teach at NYU I would not find it ethical to claim that I am a professor at NYU, no matter the title. @DreadCrash @Noahpinion Permalink 8:11 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I did not use “criminal”: your actual activity does not match your claims. Why? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:07 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Stop putting words in my mouth. You claim to be assistant prof at Stony Brook. When was the last time you taught there? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:02 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb That’s what fraudsters and bullshitters say when they are caught.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721103376767852544 Permalink 7:48 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb But… I am living well. I am just allergic to fraud & fraudsters. @WLTSchirano @Noahpinion Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is big: an implicit admission of involvement by Saudi Barbaria, or role of members of the royal family.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/721167105211564032 Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Scheduled for an interview w/Bloomberg TV. But from editors’ behavior @noahpinion I feel moral disgust. What to do? Permalink 7:31 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@TradeScylla Let’s show a little love for @nntaleb. A blogger lied and he didn’t let it go. If only #politics worked like this.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/721052151498338304 Permalink 6:36 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My theory was that someone like Noah Smith who writes BS will have many other instances of BS, hence …https://twitter.com/blightersort/status/721112619327819778 Permalink 4:13 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Another liar: ceux qui se ressemblent s’assemblent. https://twitter.com/amonck/status/721102923879620608 Permalink 3:32 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You have ALL the attributes of an intellectual fraudster. @Noahpinion @arosaen Permalink 3:31 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) And MISREPRESENTING is not an idea problem but a CHARACTER problem. Kapish? @Noahpinion Permalink 3:24 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) Point is not that Smith @noahpinion is wrong but that he actively MISREPRESENTS my work. & this is the 4th time. Msrprsntng is UNETHICAL Permalink 3:23 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I do not think that there is a single academic on the planet who does not notice his “citation” thing.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721088725929762816 Permalink 3:19 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith @noahpinion:agrees w/passage(bt makes me say opposite) His editor @JamesGreiff”Smith sees things differently”pic.twitter.com/UEP4MRfSaj Permalink 3:02 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Liekwise when people are caught making a logical fallacy, they call it a “disagreement”.https://twitter.com/normonics/status/721086028564471813 Permalink 2:26 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith you willingly spread this mistake on citation count. Yours was 0, not 5,483. @davidjshipley @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/TQlD4c69tL Permalink 2:21 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Black Swan about “overestimation”.It’s in CHARACTER for Noah smith to MISREPRESENT. @davidjshipley @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/pIcSM8Xdqu Permalink 1:35 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because I’ve seen Mr Smith committing other misrepresentations. It is his CHARACTER. @davidjshipley @jon4fish @Noahpinion Permalink 1:27 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Just ask the subject: Mr. Noah Smith have you been lying for 5 months about academic position? @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 1:14 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The dishonest part is MISREPRESENTING the idea. It is a matter of CHARACTER nothing to do with idea. @jon4fish @Noahpinion Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Call the University. I just verified with another member of the department, was told the same. @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 1:01 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith SHOULD HAVE changed his CV Bloomberg bio. @foxyforecaster @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:59 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Was informed in December that Noah Smith was no longer at U since he wasn’t fit for research. @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:55 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Further one does not have to write a rebuttal to Noah Smith when it was ALREADY in the book. Have some ethics. @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:44 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We can confirm that Noah Smith has been LYING about his position at Stony Brook. Does Bloomberg condone such BS? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:42 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Dear Mr Bloomberg, @MikeBloomberg, is it Bloomberg policy to allow journos writing about books they haven’t read? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:32 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith have you read T Black Swan before commenting? Is it Bloomberg policy to have journos randomize comments? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:29 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Since Mr Noah Smith I gather you haven’t been at Stony B. since at least Dec, why do you misrepresent position? @Noahpinion @davidjshipley Permalink 12:18 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Once again, Mr Smith, are you currently at Stony Brook Yes/No? @Noahpinion @SpeakingBee @mjd1735 Permalink 12:06 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb David Shipley @davidjshipley is the editor of Bloomberg View. Who was involved in editing/factchecking @noahpinion?https://twitter.com/LucasWilk/status/721050679729647616 Permalink 12:05 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Another point: Is Noah Smith hiding that he was thrown out of academia? It is compatible with his behavior @SpeakingBee @mjd1735 @Noahpinion Permalink 11:51 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Actually given that it was in The Black Swan Noah Smith violated journalistic ethics misrepresenting the idea &book. @mjd1735 @Noahpinion Permalink 11:11 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bob Shiller is v. honest, just showing since paper is being used. As to Pinker, I tried & tried convincing him privately before going public Permalink 9:43 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr @noahpinion,was told your academic career was cut short at Stony Brook. Why does you keep in bio? Am I wrong? @Kurtosis_ @InjuredThales Permalink 9:40 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb For those who ask: Bloomberg article abt Black Swans has same flaws as the Pinker article on war. Except worse.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/720989442194960384 Permalink 9:26 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb https://twitter.com/MarcosCarreira/status/324801689053962241 Bruno attributed this phrase to you Permalink 8:11 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Shiller paper is flawed. 1) wrong estimator 2) Bad tail prob https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf @InjuredThales @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/QbwATMYrh3 Permalink 7:57 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Astrology does not influence policy makers, but BS psychology a la Sunstein does! https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153769251858375 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/720951206860992513 Permalink 6:58 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb As the 5b fine shows, the main difference between Goldman Sachs & other criminal organizations is, simply, better & more connected lawyers. Permalink 6:28 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You look at astrologers as a field of BS,I look at psychology as same but w/arrogance @Research_Tim @Firefly_fan @CoyneoftheRealm @ja_furman Permalink 5:25 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Psychology is so bullshit that it takes outsiders to debunk @Research_Tim @Firefly_fan @CoyneoftheRealm @ja_furman https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153769251858375 Permalink 5:14 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This response illustrates the resistance against anything but a 7th C language –& of course 7th century thinking.https://twitter.com/Quran_Chart/status/720773858316267521 Permalink 5:10 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mistranslation: “Atabeg Zanki God has mercy upon him) shd be “the late Atabeg Zanki”, رحمه الله = ref to departed @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhan Permalink 4:36 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Penguin translator is a BS operator: 60-70 in the original becomes 80. #bewarelazytranslators @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhan Permalink 4:31 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Minority rule: Yunan a Christian confronted 70 robbers; intimidated them t safe passage. @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhanpic.twitter.com/UlZTKBZIJh Permalink 4:29 AM – 15 Apr 2016

Stewart Brand, Stony Brook, Arnold Kling, Zika, GMOs, Mean Deviation, Ahiqar, Fat Tony, The Next Subprime

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@nntaleb GMO: @stewartbrand & @mark_lynas are sub-clueless about risk, science… Our latest @mosicr https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Precautionary%20Principle%20Papers.pdf pic.twitter.com/qUIvEc2RJD Permalink 6:19 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “With animals you make up quality w/quantity; a good human is superior to a thousand” @GhassanDahhan #minorityrulepic.twitter.com/8C0QmlV1hs Permalink 6:11 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb – “Mr T., can you read an Arabic text from the 11th C? – Yes – Didn’t Arabic change? – Alas, not in 14 C, and that’s exactly the problem. Permalink 5:25 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Gardner boy, show antecedent to convexity argument vs fragile. If you can. Bitter envious idiot @dgardner Permalink 4:45 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms Hillary still insists regime change in Libya was a good idea even though Libyans disagree & ISIS now thrives there: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/14/hillary-clinton-has-no-regrets-about-libya/?platform=hootsuite . Permalink 3:08 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Is it me or is there something surreal abt an economist on public welfare lecturing independent people about how to invest? #skininthegame Permalink 1:52 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am not saying tweets should not have *illustrations* for stimulation, they do not need a *proof* if there is one. Kapish? @longitude0 Permalink 1:47 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you add a picture in a tweet to back-up your assertion, you will sound less convincing. The place for backups are endnotes not tweets. Permalink 1:35 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Preparing Real World Risk Workshop part II in Stony Brook. This is the comparison with RWRI http://realworldrisk.com pic.twitter.com/3d8GojmRY5 Permalink 11:53 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So when a GMO promoting “science” journalist refers to a paper that uses P-values, show him this [Section IV] https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf Permalink 10:43 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Looks like Arnold Kling is rephrasing #Antifragile. The copycat deserves some scrutiny.https://twitter.com/paulg/status/720625255811645440 Permalink 8:24 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A very solid paper by Yaneer et al on other possible causes of Zika, with the usual suspect: insecticide.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/720632525463404544 Permalink 8:21 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb GLOBALIZATION: Ricardo’s Comp Adv is flawed mathematically when variability is added. Put SOME rigor into economics!pic.twitter.com/tTKg2etfjH Permalink 7:54 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 3 Lobbyists 4 Bureaucrats in DC/Brusselshttps://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/720615827544875009 Permalink 7:17 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If the IMF had a randomly selected horse in place of Lagarde the place would have been more realistic.https://twitter.com/ghchammas/status/720462165354917889 Permalink 5:04 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@BryanAppleyard ‘imbecility of an order that has few historical parallels’ John Gray on the West’s Middle East policy http://tinyurl.com/z5epfe2 Permalink 4:13 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@WeAreLebanon Good morning from #Bazal, north #Lebanon By Ibrahim Anouti #WeAreLebanonpic.twitter.com/kTCNARNr2S Permalink 12:33 AM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bye bye GMOs. A technnology that doesn’t grow is effectively dead. Acreage for GM Crops Declined in 2015http://nyti.ms/23tkPHi Permalink 1:03 PM – 13 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms When pondering regime change, a key question is whether the regime’s replacement will be better — not whether the current regime is good. Permalink 5:19 AM – 13 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is not in jest: I’ve seen some in North Syria. Permalink 3:13 AM – 13 Apr 2016

@nntaleb There are people in the Levant with 6 fingers.https://twitter.com/conflictantiq/status/720114626625671169 Permalink 3:08 AM – 13 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nero di seppia. Infine.pic.twitter.com/sMseHkJcw1 Permalink 5:06 PM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Make the GMO imbecile read this as well https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/715862574059937793 @Ernestocordo @randal_olson Permalink 1:25 PM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Economics has been even more wrong for much longer.https://twitter.com/VonNeumann5/status/719911166810722304 Permalink 8:53 AM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Cont: we tracked econ PhDs who went into trading and found only 2 out of 87 survived. Firms like Renaissance never hire economists. Permalink 6:36 AM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Explanation: events & price reaction to events are as Fat Tony says “different tings”. How Fat Tony got rich (& fat)pic.twitter.com/esPtv48lhF Permalink 5:38 AM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I conjecture that if you gave an investor the next day’s news 24 h in advance he would go bust in less than a year. Permalink 6:21 PM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Silent Risk proof of why Mean deviation better than Standard Deviation @WAWilsonIVpic.twitter.com/4DP7YjYTWs Permalink 3:34 PM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A theorem about ruin problems by the Maestro Marco Avellaneda originating from a twitter thread!https://twitter.com/MAvellaneda55/status/719592339380006914 Permalink 11:28 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Which illustrates the wiki entry for Norm L-3 for a Wiener process ||W|| @MAvellaneda55 @normonicspic.twitter.com/RVjAOUX78x Permalink 8:09 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A Brownian motion that never hits ruin at zero Bessel 3 function. @MAvellaneda55 @normonicspic.twitter.com/p2y5vDBELs Permalink 8:04 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary of statistical errors in @sapinker & goons is out (ungated) http://fooledbyrandomness.com/significance.pdf http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2016.00903.x/abstract pic.twitter.com/WqQTTGd7FH Permalink 5:04 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@menleben pic.twitter.com/9TuPchZHa1 Permalink 5:10 PM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2- You learn from trading that those who blow you up look “measured” a la Hillary not the wild animals a la Donaldo @Codetie @EconTalker Permalink 2:41 PM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1-Never be fooled by the superficial. The most interventionist/dangerous US prez has been the smooth behaving GWB!https://twitter.com/codetie/status/719270808577818624 Permalink 2:39 PM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Calling out BS is a social obligation for all of us.https://twitter.com/dfsalbatross/status/719146550216118274 Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The typical misrepresentation of my work: all members of the Smith family are tall != all tall pple are Smith familyhttps://twitter.com/jilm/status/719147265982603268 Permalink 9:32 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Papers claiming “overestimation” of tail risk assume agent makes 1 decision per lifetime !!! https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf pic.twitter.com/sa45xOWydm Permalink 6:54 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A scenic beach, if easy to reach, will be soon jam-packed; ideas & investments, if both obvious & easy to execute, will soon be overcrowded. Permalink 5:34 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Look at how Monsanto PR firms create fake accounts with female names to harass/defame @RachelsNews, a teenager: https://twitter.com/DanteExMachina/followers Permalink 5:19 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Ahiqar was of the origin of Aesop’s fables. In history, origin is the upper,not lower bound. http://www.syriacstudies.com/2014/02/06/the-words-of-ahiqar-aramaic-proverbs-and-precepts/ http://www.kathimerini.gr/346660/article/politismos/arxeio-politismoy/h-dihghsh-toy-axikar-apo-th-mesopotamia Permalink 4:44 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If the rich eats a snake, they think it’s for its properties; if the poor does it: for his hunger. Wisdom of Ahiqarpic.twitter.com/TZ7tTsMJl6 Permalink 3:25 PM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Peer review” in psychology & decision theory doesn’t count. The peer review should be done by 1) physicists. 2) time. (worst of 2). Permalink 10:19 AM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Added a section on “no we don’t use logarithms for utility theory!”. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf pic.twitter.com/rfabeGp3Ij Permalink 9:39 AM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The point of #Antifragile that distributing small mistakes vs top-down mistake concentration =>thintails vs fattailshttps://twitter.com/BrianNosek/status/718812302141714433 Permalink 7:58 AM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Social networks are now forcing companies to become moral; life today is rebecoming transparent (#Lindyeffect)https://twitter.com/FPAction/status/718450334511734786 Permalink 5:27 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Is Fat Tony a real or fictitious character? Permalink 4:59 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Never cross a river if it is on average 4 feet deep.” (1996, Dynamic Hedging)https://twitter.com/Tubbyturkey/status/718581172817645568 Permalink 4:30 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Proves that an econ or psych. PhD makes you know less abt RISK than someone illiterate: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf pic.twitter.com/Xg3qjxrGB7 Permalink 2:41 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I know something about Ketchum prying into my own affairs. However low IQ & espionage aren’t a good combination.https://twitter.com/diegocreimer/status/718425193018953728 Permalink 12:06 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Where we show fallacies committed by such bullshit vendors as Cass Sunstein in the name of “rationality”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/718456742141673472 Permalink 8:21 AM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Mathematical Foundations of the Precautionary Principle, (draft with mistakes) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf pic.twitter.com/GrL6rritKD Permalink 8:13 AM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb They look like my weighlifting friends.https://twitter.com/andybolton1008/status/718347509328920576 Permalink 3:19 AM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Any self-owned, independent person, #doesnthidehisflaws #sayitthewayitis, when public, could be called “a narcissistic bully”. @EconTalker Permalink 6:06 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@ttmygh …and you wonder why people are voting for @realDonaldTrump The hypocrisy of the political class is breathtakingpic.twitter.com/vo72UebMhe Permalink 5:01 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The next subprime.https://twitter.com/amusechimp/status/718218640911425537 Permalink 5:11 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What every risk taker knows but academics in decision theory/econ don’t: space&time probabilities are NOT the same.pic.twitter.com/RvFdeodOQU Permalink 3:09 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb An economist just said “Humans are not perfect machines”. But machines are not perfect machines. Permalink 11:26 AM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you do not like aphorisms, do *not* buy books of aphorism. Kapish? http://www.amazon.com/The-Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical/dp/1400069971/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8 pic.twitter.com/xPImSSnQAI Permalink 5:20 AM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We are doing very well with our uberization of training http://www.realworldrisk.com , as in classical times. @JonHaidt @aminterest Permalink 4:44 AM – 7 Apr 2016

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Category Archives: Twitter

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