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Stewart Brand, Stony Brook, Arnold Kling, Zika, GMOs, Mean Deviation, Ahiqar, Fat Tony, The Next Subprime

@nntaleb GMO: @stewartbrand & @mark_lynas are sub-clueless about risk, science… Our latest @mosicr https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Precautionary%20Principle%20Papers.pdf  pic.twitter.com/qUIvEc2RJD Permalink 6:19 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “With animals you make up quality w/quantity; a good human is superior to a thousand” @GhassanDahhan #minorityrulepic.twitter.com/8C0QmlV1hs Permalink 6:11 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb – “Mr T., can you read an Arabic text from the 11th C? – Yes – Didn’t Arabic change? – Alas, not in 14 C, and that’s exactly the problem. Permalink 5:25 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Gardner boy, show antecedent to convexity argument vs fragile. If you can. Bitter envious idiot @dgardner Permalink 4:45 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms Hillary still insists regime change in Libya was a good idea even though Libyans disagree & ISIS now thrives there: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/14/hillary-clinton-has-no-regrets-about-libya/?platform=hootsuite  . Permalink 3:08 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Is it me or is there something surreal abt an economist on public welfare lecturing independent people about how to invest? #skininthegame Permalink 1:52 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am not saying tweets should not have *illustrations* for stimulation, they do not need a *proof* if there is one. Kapish? @longitude0 Permalink 1:47 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you add a picture in a tweet to back-up your assertion, you will sound less convincing. The place for backups are endnotes not tweets. Permalink 1:35 PM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Preparing Real World Risk Workshop part II in Stony Brook. This is the comparison with RWRI http://realworldrisk.com  pic.twitter.com/3d8GojmRY5 Permalink 11:53 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So when a GMO promoting “science” journalist refers to a paper that uses P-values, show him this [Section IV] https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf   Permalink 10:43 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Looks like Arnold Kling is rephrasing #Antifragile. The copycat deserves some scrutiny.https://twitter.com/paulg/status/720625255811645440   Permalink 8:24 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A very solid paper by Yaneer et al on other possible causes of Zika, with the usual suspect: insecticide.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/720632525463404544   Permalink 8:21 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb GLOBALIZATION: Ricardo’s Comp Adv is flawed mathematically when variability is added. Put SOME rigor into economics!pic.twitter.com/tTKg2etfjH Permalink 7:54 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 3 Lobbyists 4 Bureaucrats in DC/Brusselshttps://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/720615827544875009   Permalink 7:17 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If the IMF had a randomly selected horse in place of Lagarde the place would have been more realistic.https://twitter.com/ghchammas/status/720462165354917889   Permalink 5:04 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@BryanAppleyard ‘imbecility of an order that has few historical parallels’ John Gray on the West’s Middle East policy http://tinyurl.com/z5epfe2   Permalink 4:13 AM – 14 Apr 2016

@WeAreLebanon Good morning from #Bazal, north #Lebanon By Ibrahim Anouti #WeAreLebanonpic.twitter.com/kTCNARNr2S Permalink 12:33 AM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bye bye GMOs. A technnology that doesn’t grow is effectively dead. Acreage for GM Crops Declined in 2015http://nyti.ms/23tkPHi   Permalink 1:03 PM – 13 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms When pondering regime change, a key question is whether the regime’s replacement will be better — not whether the current regime is good. Permalink 5:19 AM – 13 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is not in jest: I’ve seen some in North Syria. Permalink 3:13 AM – 13 Apr 2016

@nntaleb There are people in the Levant with 6 fingers.https://twitter.com/conflictantiq/status/720114626625671169   Permalink 3:08 AM – 13 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nero di seppia. Infine.pic.twitter.com/sMseHkJcw1 Permalink 5:06 PM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Make the GMO imbecile read this as well https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/715862574059937793   @Ernestocordo @randal_olson Permalink 1:25 PM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Economics has been even more wrong for much longer.https://twitter.com/VonNeumann5/status/719911166810722304   Permalink 8:53 AM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Cont: we tracked econ PhDs who went into trading and found only 2 out of 87 survived. Firms like Renaissance never hire economists. Permalink 6:36 AM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Explanation: events & price reaction to events are as Fat Tony says “different tings”. How Fat Tony got rich (& fat)pic.twitter.com/esPtv48lhF Permalink 5:38 AM – 12 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I conjecture that if you gave an investor the next day’s news 24 h in advance he would go bust in less than a year. Permalink 6:21 PM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Silent Risk proof of why Mean deviation better than Standard Deviation @WAWilsonIVpic.twitter.com/4DP7YjYTWs Permalink 3:34 PM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A theorem about ruin problems by the Maestro Marco Avellaneda originating from a twitter thread!https://twitter.com/MAvellaneda55/status/719592339380006914   Permalink 11:28 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Which illustrates the wiki entry for Norm L-3 for a Wiener process ||W|| @MAvellaneda55 @normonicspic.twitter.com/RVjAOUX78x Permalink 8:09 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A Brownian motion that never hits ruin at zero Bessel 3 function. @MAvellaneda55 @normonicspic.twitter.com/p2y5vDBELs Permalink 8:04 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary of statistical errors in @sapinker & goons is out (ungated) http://fooledbyrandomness.com/significance.pdf   http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2016.00903.x/abstract  pic.twitter.com/WqQTTGd7FH Permalink 5:04 AM – 11 Apr 2016

@menleben pic.twitter.com/9TuPchZHa1 Permalink 5:10 PM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2- You learn from trading that those who blow you up look “measured” a la Hillary not the wild animals a la Donaldo @Codetie @EconTalker Permalink 2:41 PM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1-Never be fooled by the superficial. The most interventionist/dangerous US prez has been the smooth behaving GWB!https://twitter.com/codetie/status/719270808577818624   Permalink 2:39 PM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Calling out BS is a social obligation for all of us.https://twitter.com/dfsalbatross/status/719146550216118274   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The typical misrepresentation of my work: all members of the Smith family are tall != all tall pple are Smith familyhttps://twitter.com/jilm/status/719147265982603268   Permalink 9:32 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Papers claiming “overestimation” of tail risk assume agent makes 1 decision per lifetime !!! https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  pic.twitter.com/sa45xOWydm Permalink 6:54 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A scenic beach, if easy to reach, will be soon jam-packed; ideas & investments, if both obvious & easy to execute, will soon be overcrowded. Permalink 5:34 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Look at how Monsanto PR firms create fake accounts with female names to harass/defame @RachelsNews, a teenager: https://twitter.com/DanteExMachina/followers   Permalink 5:19 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Ahiqar was of the origin of Aesop’s fables. In history, origin is the upper,not lower bound. http://www.syriacstudies.com/2014/02/06/the-words-of-ahiqar-aramaic-proverbs-and-precepts/   http://www.kathimerini.gr/346660/article/politismos/arxeio-politismoy/h-dihghsh-toy-axikar-apo-th-mesopotamia   Permalink 4:44 AM – 10 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If the rich eats a snake, they think it’s for its properties; if the poor does it: for his hunger. Wisdom of Ahiqarpic.twitter.com/TZ7tTsMJl6 Permalink 3:25 PM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Peer review” in psychology & decision theory doesn’t count. The peer review should be done by 1) physicists. 2) time. (worst of 2). Permalink 10:19 AM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Added a section on “no we don’t use logarithms for utility theory!”. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  pic.twitter.com/rfabeGp3Ij Permalink 9:39 AM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The point of #Antifragile that distributing small mistakes vs top-down mistake concentration =>thintails vs fattailshttps://twitter.com/BrianNosek/status/718812302141714433   Permalink 7:58 AM – 9 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Social networks are now forcing companies to become moral; life today is rebecoming transparent (#Lindyeffect)https://twitter.com/FPAction/status/718450334511734786   Permalink 5:27 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Is Fat Tony a real or fictitious character? Permalink 4:59 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Never cross a river if it is on average 4 feet deep.” (1996, Dynamic Hedging)https://twitter.com/Tubbyturkey/status/718581172817645568   Permalink 4:30 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Proves that an econ or psych. PhD makes you know less abt RISK than someone illiterate: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  pic.twitter.com/Xg3qjxrGB7 Permalink 2:41 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I know something about Ketchum prying into my own affairs. However low IQ & espionage aren’t a good combination.https://twitter.com/diegocreimer/status/718425193018953728   Permalink 12:06 PM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Where we show fallacies committed by such bullshit vendors as Cass Sunstein in the name of “rationality”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/718456742141673472   Permalink 8:21 AM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Mathematical Foundations of the Precautionary Principle, (draft with mistakes) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  pic.twitter.com/GrL6rritKD Permalink 8:13 AM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb They look like my weighlifting friends.https://twitter.com/andybolton1008/status/718347509328920576   Permalink 3:19 AM – 8 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Any self-owned, independent person, #doesnthidehisflaws #sayitthewayitis, when public, could be called “a narcissistic bully”. @EconTalker Permalink 6:06 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@ttmygh …and you wonder why people are voting for @realDonaldTrump The hypocrisy of the political class is breathtakingpic.twitter.com/vo72UebMhe Permalink 5:01 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The next subprime.https://twitter.com/amusechimp/status/718218640911425537   Permalink 5:11 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What every risk taker knows but academics in decision theory/econ don’t: space&time probabilities are NOT the same.pic.twitter.com/RvFdeodOQU Permalink 3:09 PM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb An economist just said “Humans are not perfect machines”. But machines are not perfect machines. Permalink 11:26 AM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you do not like aphorisms, do *not* buy books of aphorism. Kapish? http://www.amazon.com/The-Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical/dp/1400069971/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8  pic.twitter.com/xPImSSnQAI Permalink 5:20 AM – 7 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We are doing very well with our uberization of training http://www.realworldrisk.com   , as in classical times. @JonHaidt @aminterest Permalink 4:44 AM – 7 Apr 2016

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