Category Archives: Twitter

P Values, Deadlift, Precautionary Principle, Trump, Virtue, Kapish?

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@nntaleb In high frequ quant finance we use >10^6 data points & nobody knows pvalue. Psychologists trying to get away with 10https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/717366620331618304   Permalink 7:02 PM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Normal humans can learn from Iraq and Lybia. Journalism became the last refuge for those with brain defects.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/717880860066856960   Permalink 6:56 PM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My Skin in the Game WIPhttps://twitter.com/evonomicsmag/status/717556674559668224   Permalink 4:03 AM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Por primera vez, texto en español [Bogota]https://twitter.com/luiscano/status/717442396473135104   Permalink 2:54 PM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb To paraphrase Yogi Bera, 90% of deadlifting is mental; the other half is physical. Permalink 8:13 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Meanwhile a 80% power for a test and 5% p-value aren’t science.Pick a large n & fughedaoudit http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf  pic.twitter.com/SUMZ6zCBeA Permalink 8:01 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Instead of risking Max deadlift, easier to figure it out from max{lbs: 3 reps <=failure}. @Pete_Spence @georgepearkes Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb in lbs of course. Permalink 6:32 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What is the max deadlift for a noncompetitive flaneur like me (adj. by age group) that would be considered decent? Permalink 6:29 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@esalazar_y There are only two people missing #Seneca and #FatTony @nntalebpic.twitter.com/aojYNa4QNk Permalink 6:37 PM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Precautionary Principle Simplified: Started rewriting @yaneerbaryam @normonics @RupertReadpic.twitter.com/i12VkJn8WC Permalink 11:40 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@kupiako @nntaleb @DontFadeeMeBro And his father died in 1999 Permalink 7:28 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Main diff betw. Trump and Fat Tony: 1) His FatToniness doesn’t like publicity, 2) Fat Tony wouldn’t marry a model.https://twitter.com/UncleDario1/status/716995760181616641   Permalink 7:30 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Also Trump had 4 siblings. @DontFadeeMeBro Permalink 7:26 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I only trust people who don’t care about their reputation. Virtue ethics is about acts of virtue even if they come with negative reward. Permalink 7:25 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb That is a myth about Trump’s inheritance. Work the numbers of cohort of others who have inherited.https://twitter.com/gweirydd/status/716993004096077824   Permalink 7:20 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal: Rediscovers scaling laws, how fragility increases with size.pic.twitter.com/55uXlT5XwD Permalink 7:15 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 305): Politicians sh**t scared of the press.pic.twitter.com/ZwM5grWlsV Permalink 7:11 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (pp. 282-283): How consultants & executives don’t hold a candle to someone w/ #SITGpic.twitter.com/24nofJ5AcN Permalink 7:08 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “To me, committees are what insecure people create in order to put off making hard decisions.” Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 281) Permalink 7:05 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My hobby is busting bullshitters @iandavidmorris, a la Feynman: “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”https://twitter.com/Priapus_D/status/716972631925387264   Permalink 6:04 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The fellow did not break the truth: comments in prnthss which is NOT standard but NOT unethical. Kapish? @semperfidem2004 @iandavidmorris Permalink 3:04 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In real science it is not about whether the scientist has the right standards; it is about his THEORY. Kapish? @homophonous @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:19 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) which is why Lux.’s theory is a valid hunch; disproofs are unrigorous w/absence of evidence fallacies. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:08 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1/Every Arabic speaker who had to memorize poetry knows that pre-Islamic vocabulary is v. different from Q. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:05 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@republicofmath MT @MathFour Engineers think equations approx reality. Physicists think reality approx equations. Mathematicians know equations are reality Permalink 11:31 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) So in spite of his solecism I find him closer to the SUBSTANCE of the subject matter than your elaborate nitpicking @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:40 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) As I said he knew enough Syriac to have detected the problem and confused Payne Smith for his daughter’s translation. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:38 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb His “sparkle” is in Payne. Check again. Attacking someone’s thesis on his etiquette is failing us: we care about the truth @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:20 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Finally, in my world (science, search for truth), scholarship is about SUBSTANCE, not trifles. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:16 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What makes me doubt your scholarship is that the fact that you did not check if the language was from Payne, not his own. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:15 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You are conflating breach of ethics & breach of the etiquette of a research milieu. By nitpicking, you reinforced his thesis.@iandavidmorris Permalink 11:56 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 If it weren’t for Obama, Shillary Clinton wd have transformed Damascus into an AlQaeda or ISIS Base. Keep her on the lecture circuit. Permalink 9:33 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We need to keep Shillary out of the White House. Whatever it takes, even if it means having a robot as president.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/716644245977899008   Permalink 9:24 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary: Anything that has an infinite (or “long”) shelf life (i.e. “sustainable”) falls under Precautionary Pple.pic.twitter.com/55pwCgaJM0 Permalink 6:55 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I think I got the p-hacking distribution & given no outcry by psych trolls it isn’t a “rediscovery”. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   @learnfromerror Permalink 3:13 PM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nobody can explain why the neocons are buying that Saudi Barbaria is helping Syria to become democratic. Is neocon a result of brain damage? Permalink 2:45 PM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If all progress is innovation, all innovation is not progress. As a matter of fact, 99.9% of innovations fail. @sarah_cone @uistbhoy88 Permalink 9:39 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that hotshot architects try to impress other architects and we are left paying the price. #noskininthegame Permalink 7:52 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Rainy Saturday: density of the preimage of the power of test. Concavity of measure, mean is lower than orig powerpic.twitter.com/mKd3T2CyNR Permalink 7:49 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Sadly, when a gentle, low-testosterone looking person promotes peace, he is much less convincing than a warrior-looking bully. Permalink 6:45 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that, unlike with fashion, music or cinema, fads leave a permanent scar. Permalink 4:59 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This summer I want to learn a new language. Which sequence is preferable? (Urdu as proxy for Hindi for script). Permalink 2:49 PM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Metadistribution: The dist of the pre-image of a power of a test. In other words, Power is as BS as P-Value.pic.twitter.com/xAGvyuqmjk Permalink 1:08 PM – 1 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms You know you’re a sectarian fraud when you say Assad must go for humanitarian reasons while cheering the Saudi-led carpet-bombing in Yemen. Permalink 2:24 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb P-value is a stochastic measure. Stochastic measures are not measures. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   @dsquareddigest Permalink 11:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fixed! @SandrewFinancepic.twitter.com/fWj8wc5z5F Permalink 11:01 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Connecting the Precautionary PPle to Peters and Gell-Mann(2015); something MISSED by the idiots in decision theory.pic.twitter.com/sOplMWr1we Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We are reframing the MINI CERTIFICATE IN RISK TAKING as risk management is back office, risk taking is front office. http://realworldrisk.com/inaugural_program_comments   Permalink 8:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@garyruskin Then: #Monsanto hid the truth about PCBs http://bit.ly/1C6Gupx  . Now: Monsanto says “Roundup Is Not A Carcinogen” http://wbur.fm/1MZz35R   Permalink 6:12 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary of philosophical approach to the inverse problem (in Silent Risk).pic.twitter.com/Sw3BQt1kvW Permalink 6:05 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The precautionary principle papers: No, there is no *scientific* evidence “GMO” are safe http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  pic.twitter.com/d08P8gYtLr Permalink 4:25 AM – 1 Apr 2016

Albert Tarantola, Slowthinkers, Monsanto, Macrobullshit, Microbullshit | Twitter

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@nntaleb The late Albert Tarantola wrote the entry. His book on Inverse problem statistics is free: http://www.ipgp.fr/~tarantola/Files/Professional/Books/index.html   pic.twitter.com/DA2nb0DXt1 Permalink 2:52 PM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb I discovered today that psychologists “statisticians” & other slowthinkers are not familiar Inverse Problems. http://mathworld.wolfram.com/InverseProblem.html   Permalink 2:44 PM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Turns out Scientific American @sciam is a Monsanto shill! This is the worst damage to the core of scientific trust! http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/monsanto-scientific-american_us_56fc41d7e4b083f5c606a649   Permalink 11:28 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Anyway coming up with a theorem and will let Lakens boy argue with the theorem. @deaneckles @CookieSci @JoeHilgard @lakens Permalink 11:20 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Things are starting to be funning with the replicating goons: The “power” of a test is a random variable. pic.twitter.com/CDrWQh8MSB Permalink 10:26 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Monsanto’s media machine comes to Washington http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/monsanto-scientific-american_us_56fc41d7e4b083f5c606a649   via @HuffPostPol Permalink 8:30 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Bullshit https://twitter.com/lakens/status/715398204494221314   Permalink 5:24 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Another one in a Donaldo denial. https://twitter.com/Limeylizzie/status/715339307574292480   Permalink 8:01 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Daily expression of hope that Donaldo is NOT for real, just “temporary”. Yet to me Laura is top 3 jrns in the world. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/715359302567993346   Permalink 7:11 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Ahamm te3li2 ijitne min wa2t tawil. Lani7faz turasna w aslna. https://twitter.com/menleben/status/715358032411107328   Permalink 7:04 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Ahamm shi la bilad shem nitrok el lijneh el 3arabiye, nsour mitl Malta samiyyin bass b3ad 3an el 3arab. Sh3b tene. Ne7na Aramyiyye Permalink 6:55 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Lishano siryoyo ma7zito d’omto d ilan r7imto Permalink 6:43 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Mr @lakens take your time to explain why since my eq. 1 is so trivially know why didn’t you use it in your Open Science replication project? Permalink 2:42 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Per measurement not per ensemble of measurements @gvpathi Permalink 1:50 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Mathematical results have a p=0, physics overall p< 10^-10, negative empiricism/logic p=0, the rest are largely bullshit, prefer humanities. Permalink 1:33 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Latest version is here http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/715269562862804994   Permalink 1:11 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb P-Value paper now ~ cleared through the “was done before” trolls: we have an exact metadist and p-hacking bias. pic.twitter.com/uc18mhd493 Permalink 1:08 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb This paper has every single error, missing that in-sample measure of extreme events is downward biased. https://twitter.com/carney/status/715258655017418754   Permalink 12:33 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@chaslutz @DrFrankWilson @EconTalker I hate CAF too, but this is bad stats as @nntaleb has said: right comparison is to burglaries PREVENTED by police Permalink 12:28 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb It is easier to macrobullshit than microbullshit: for the news ignore geopolitics & finance journos; only crime reporters know theit stuff Permalink 10:04 AM – 30 Mar 2016

@TalebBot Executive programs allow us to watch people who have never worked lecturing those who have never pondered. Permalink 7:20 PM – 29 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms Was the pounding the Syrian & Russian militaries handed ISIS in Palmyra a big PR stunt as described in the media? Permalink 4:08 PM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb At the bottom, psychologists want to be treated as “scientists”. Alas, in my world they don’t exist. @Blacklabellogic @GordPennycook @lakens Permalink 2:49 PM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Frankly I don’t consider psychological handwaving as a source of rigorous mathematical results @GordPennycook @lakens Permalink 1:53 PM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb When someone is looking for antecedents for a result, announcing “this is what I teach my undergrads” when isn’t true. @Heinonmatti @lakens Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Daniel Lakens, your behavior w.r.t. antecedence is silly, unscientific, & ignorant. @lakens @AndrewPGrieve Permalink 3:00 AM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Mediterraneans fast, eat no breakfast, small dinner, and walk up down hills. Diet studies aren’t rigorous. https://twitter.com/erlesen/status/714577237459210240   Permalink 3:22 PM – 28 Mar 2016

Nice/Nasty, Inequality, SITG, P-Hacking, Easter, Syria, Palmyra, Shillary, Trump, Saunders | Twitter

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@nntaleb My rule: when people are nice, I am twice as nice to them. When nasty, a thousand times nastier. @lakens @sothisispietro Permalink 11:44 AM – 28 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Friends, need to find errors in this paper before posting on ArXiv. Busts current measurement of inequality https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/GINI-1.pdf   Permalink 7:49 AM – 28 Mar 2016

@nntaleb DC pundits stick to minor variations around a (false) narrative, owing to lack of 1)courage,2) #skininthegame, 3) IQ https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/714422281372639232   Permalink 5:10 AM – 28 Mar 2016

@nntaleb You start by gratuitously trolling me saying you taught undergrads my meta-dist (you didn’t) & now you think you could be “helpful”? @lakens Permalink 4:44 AM – 28 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Donaldo, minor detail: this is not quite ISIS; nevertheless you will do better than Shillary. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/714264864575922177   Permalink 6:49 PM – 27 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Pulled out the explicit “p-hacking” formula. New version of paper. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   pic.twitter.com/0gRwP7jhQw Permalink 4:12 PM – 27 Mar 2016

@adolfont The wise approach to markets is to consider them smarter than governments yet profoundly stupid… @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/IUBOFaN0dO Permalink 12:26 PM – 27 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms .@octavianasr The media did even worse job covering Syria conflict than the decision to remove Saddam; on Syria, it had access to more info. Permalink 7:53 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Happy Easter for those who celebrate now. The Orthodox Church will celebrate in 5 weeks. pic.twitter.com/x2VQl1layy Permalink 7:35 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms It’s been so lonely over Twitter the past few years getting accused of being a troll for stating the basic facts on Syria. Thanks #Palmyra. Permalink 6:20 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms Which pundits get the most (dis)credit for convincing Western media the Syrian & Russian militaries are in cahoots with IS & don’t fight IS? Permalink 5:53 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@PieterDuboisFI @nntaleb-isation of software development https://twitter.com/BetaList/status/714047126892843009   Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@aarondwarwick @nntaleb thanks for pointing us to @MaxAbrahms a couple months ago. Top notch! Permalink 4:55 PM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Nobody is talking about the exciting news of ISIS thrown out of Palmyra. Why? Alas easy to figure out. Permalink 4:53 PM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb ”Sometimes your best investments are the ones you don’t make.” Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal Permalink 3:15 PM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb And instead of playing smart ass as a scientist you could have answer led my quest for the search of antecedents @lakens Permalink 9:46 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Where is the probability distribution? An equation is usually an equation with derivations. @lakens Permalink 9:33 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb And I am taking about rigorous probability theory not handwaving looping psychological discourse. @lakens Permalink 9:24 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Mr lakens i am talking about exact metadistibution of p-val. @lakens This is clear and precise. Show me. Permalink 9:22 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb You still need to back up your accusation of claiming to “reinvent” pval dist before asking more questions.@lakens https://twitter.com/lakens/status/713758346973679616   Permalink 9:15 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The US president cannot change much except foreign interventionism. Incl taxes. Kapish? @sleuthstock @BernieSanders Permalink 8:14 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb This said I far prefer @BernieSanders to Trump but absolutely no Hillary. No Hillary, no SHillary. Permalink 7:44 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Reading Trump all I see is protect your downside (unknown) risks. What’s behind the bluster is Fat Tony compatible. pic.twitter.com/6OyroXQ8qc Permalink 7:35 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms Loving the spin to minimize Syrian/Russian military achievements against ISIS: https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/713709476830797825  . Permalink 7:13 AM – 26 Mar 2016

Syria, Minority Rule, An Ounce of Algebra, The Null Hypothesis | Twitter

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@nntaleb Mr Lakens, please kindly show where my equations were “discovered” in that paper and explain the claim of “re-invented” p-value. @lakens Permalink 2:19 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Is it me or a Kafkaesque absurdity? Europe allows Saudi Barbaria to teach/promote Salafi hatred in cities while locally”fighting” terrorism. Permalink 3:59 PM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic: if you have a difficult equation to solve, ask a physicist or an engineer, never a real mathematician. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 2:36 PM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Real world math NEEDS to be robust to assumptions. Our message in RWRI http://www.realworldrisk.com   @dsquareddigest @Tayeste88 Permalink 2:19 PM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb “An ounce of algebra is worth a ton of verbal argument” is from Haldane, a biologist with brains. @Tayeste88 Permalink 2:14 PM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb An ounce of algebra is worth a ton of verbal argument. Mathematics is not sufficient but necessary to remove the BS. @Tayeste88 Permalink 2:01 PM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb No longer capable of reading “scientific” text w/discourse/graphs. Either math (w/comments), or humanities, nothing in between.#barbell Permalink 12:43 PM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb OK, here is the metadistribution of “power of test” for specific p. @ceptional pic.twitter.com/lZMvyObXrT Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Mar 2016

@TalebBot The ancient Mediterranean : before monotheism, people changed and exchanged rites and gods as we do with ethnic food. Permalink 7:20 AM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Ystrdy in front of St Patrick’s Cathedral in NY Salafi fellow blasted Salafi prayers. Blast Byzantine vespers in Riyadh & you’d be beheaded. Permalink 7:09 AM – 25 Mar 2016

@nntaleb FINAL Version: Dense paper on p-values without the verbose cluelessness of soc science http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0   Permalink 5:57 AM – 25 Mar 2016

@KS1729 @nntaleb very nice. Two improbably elegant ones by Ramanujan. Thought you might appreciate. pic.twitter.com/sdKhBSva1u Permalink 3:48 PM – 24 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Actually for 0< p < 1/2 pi ! Even better Permalink 3:41 PM – 24 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Come on, appreciate the beauty ! @nils_petter87 Permalink 2:01 PM – 24 Mar 2016

@nntaleb 2) Spent the night trying the most possibly elegant mathematical expression for metadist of p-values. Exciting! pic.twitter.com/mfidYvNjCx Permalink 1:39 PM – 24 Mar 2016

@TalebBot Life is about execution rather than purpose. Permalink 1:20 PM – 24 Mar 2016

@nntaleb P-Value: Woke up at night: the “null hypothesis” is a set of measure 0 ! New version http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0   Permalink 5:16 AM – 24 Mar 2016

@nntaleb A fun fun book to read for those who like an intellectual James Bond. http://www.amazon.com/Secret-Fatima-Peter-J-Tanous/dp/1504035119/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1458820088&sr=1-1&keywords=peter+tanous+fatima   https://twitter.com/PeterJTanous/status/710233158449496066   Permalink 4:48 AM – 24 Mar 2016

Belgium, P-Values, Nocera, Saudi PR, DARK Act, Monsanto | Twitter

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@nntaleb The Saudi origins of Belgium’s Islamist threat http://wpo.st/NMlO1   Permalink 4:59 PM – 23 Mar 2016

@nntaleb There is a video see feed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0   @NathanBiddle Permalink 6:47 AM – 23 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Two works in my mailbox: One Formulation of size and fragility http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2741198&download=yes   One Book on Antifragility http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-30070-2   Permalink 6:13 AM – 23 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Here is the video on the metadistribution of p-values https://youtu.be/8qrfSh07rT0   and the text is here: http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   Permalink 7:55 PM – 22 Mar 2016

@davidmoore411 He’s one of few people on the internet who could insult you publicly and you’d still buy his next book. His stuff is that good. @nntaleb Permalink 6:08 PM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb OK, OK, full proof of an exact metadistribution of p-values (covers all hypotheses). Shd I do a video comment? pic.twitter.com/YLuY3UTY1v Permalink 3:21 PM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Syrian Christians behave as Muslims in the East, Christians in the West, & are viewed as Muslims in the West and Christians in the East. Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Walid Phares is a Christian Lebanese @dandrezner Permalink 4:54 AM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb What is slowing me down w #SkinintheGame is Isocrates’ Silver Rule for Nations: Treat other nations the way you want them to treat you. Permalink 3:26 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Q: Should we intervene more to “help” countries as we brilliantly did in Lybia, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam, Iran (1953)? https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/712014036993499137   Permalink 2:37 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb “Funding” & “Investments” are the last thing you need. All you need: authenticity & risk. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153701042473375   pic.twitter.com/lMyA1wTQ56 Permalink 2:34 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@cdipaola62 @nntaleb @NoceraNYT Definition of Irony- A writer named “Nocera” finds discussion of Primum non Nocere, unintelligible Permalink 1:47 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Actually, from his name John of Damascus was not Syrian/Aramaic, but likely to be an Arab (*Yahya* Ibn Sarjun, not Yuhanan) @iandavidmorris Permalink 1:38 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb 9 days is nothing. There is the 2005 pre-crisis discussion of my skepticism of models that will eventually be re-opened. @NoceraNYT Permalink 10:29 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb It is called “first do no harm”, avoid “policies with side effects” (primum non nocere) translated: “no nocere, Nocera” @robert_cookson Permalink 10:09 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb If you have trouble understanding this, you really have problems. @robert_cookson http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-12/nassim-taleb-sums-americas-election-17-black-swan-words   Permalink 9:57 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb A journo who says “unintelligible” reveals more about his intellect than the intelligibility of the subject matter https://twitter.com/noceranyt/status/708650770380546049   Permalink 9:36 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Thanks to Scott Robeson, this is the expected pseudo-significant results <5% for true p-value @indianaclimate pic.twitter.com/sZ1863QyzA Permalink 8:05 AM – 20 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Friends, the metadistribution of p-values: rewrote, looking for mistakes bef publ on ArXiv. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   pic.twitter.com/hn25LnI37C Permalink 6:08 AM – 20 Mar 2016

@nntaleb For all his defects, more pple would like to become Trump (yacht/American dream) rather than some reasonable-sounding hack criticizing him. Permalink 3:05 PM – 19 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The more efficient you try to be at a given task, the more you will hate it. Permalink 3:51 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@lhfang New Saudi PR effort SAPRAC led by guy who recently helped regime smear Nimr al-Nimr, gov critic they executed. pic.twitter.com/9IbCNKDxFz Permalink 2:08 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb A 3% significance is really 16% @pehr_bjornbom @antitrustly @ReneMaric pic.twitter.com/ZcQdCggnmf Permalink 12:31 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Real-world rigor (Feynman-like): bring mathematics to deeply understood problems, don’t take deeply understood mathematics to problems. Permalink 12:00 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb To get a real p-val of 5% you need 1.1%; 5% is ~ 26% https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/p-val.pdf   @antitrustly @ReneMaric @BrianNosek pic.twitter.com/EHXHV4xVvZ Permalink 11:33 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@yaneerbaryam Military strategy in a complex world — how antifragility undermines traditional military strategies http://www.necsi.edu/research/military/strategy.html   @nntaleb Permalink 10:08 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Why didn’t anyone pull out the “p-value” of the “p-value” before? @ReneMaric @BrianNosek Permalink 5:46 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Only solution: it you “really” want a p-value of .05, require .0125! @BrianNosek @ReneMaric Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb I mean p-values are random variables that do not necessarily reflect statistical significance. I can’t find in lit. @ReneMaric @BrianNosek Permalink 5:26 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Why aren’t psychologists (@BrianNosek) aware that p-values have HUGE sampling error? #replicationcrisis https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/p-val.pdf   Permalink 5:19 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb typos pic.twitter.com/z9BQiLlsQp Permalink 6:41 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb On plane proof p-values are extremely random/volatile & explicit variance as function of n. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/p-val.pdf   pic.twitter.com/IYIN215S3a Permalink 6:34 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Evidence based? That is ignorant BS. Anti-GMO is scientific scrutiny. https://twitter.com/NinjaEconomics/status/710263345153093632   Permalink 6:08 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Experiment: Farro w/ squid ink. pic.twitter.com/Qzzkxud18w Permalink 5:18 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb People are so concerned about my age. pic.twitter.com/JHXlNBinkr Permalink 3:57 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Victory! Senate Rejects the DARK Act http://ecowatch.com/2016/03/16/senate-rejects-dark-act-gmo-labeling/   via ecowatch Permalink 2:19 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb This is the kind of BS people clueless about tail risk utter. Farmers’ modifications belong to a narrow basin. https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/710093894847959040   Permalink 1:45 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic: when in a hotel for the very first time, reject the first room they give you. Permalink 5:49 AM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Monsanto forces farmers to bear all the liability for its seeds, making itself immune to adverse consequences. pic.twitter.com/khRh3Sff1J Permalink 1:48 AM – 15 Mar 2016