Category Archives: Twitter

P-Values, Trump, Maximum Entropy Methods, Kahneman, Lindy Effect | Twitter

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@nntaleb In addition to the metadistribution of p-values, a technique for large scale simulations via Radon-Nikodym deriv https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Radon%20Nikodym%20Monte%20Carlo.nb.pdf   Permalink 12:23 PM – 14 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Sicilian squid ink at Taormina in London. pic.twitter.com/OIzC6vojNq Permalink 6:29 AM – 14 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Some people, when they change language, if they don’t have an accent in it, also change personality. Permalink 4:57 AM – 14 Mar 2016

@nntaleb I don’t take face value @limitlesskait @realDonaldTrump @nytimes Permalink 12:08 PM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Donaldo, tell us something we don’t know. BTW,Trump wass loved by his butlers while Hillary was hated by bodyguards. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/709089928324489216   Permalink 12:03 PM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Proud of being gentle with the waiter & tough with powerful ass***les rather than reverse. https://www.facebook.com/johnfaithful.hamer/posts/10153499619627683?pnref=story   pic.twitter.com/sdCggdk3D7 Permalink 11:28 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The metadistribution of the p-value and the #replicationcrisis https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/p-val.pdf   Permalink 8:22 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb To summarize from above, P-values are highly stochastic and the metadistribution is not factored in. Compiling notes. #replicationcrisis Permalink 7:58 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@ModeledBehavior Scary final act twist would be Trump successfully runs to the middle & before it’s too late Democrats realize he’s burning down both parties Permalink 7:05 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb (cont) More rigorous proof via Maximum Entropy Methods give a truncated exponential that mimics a beta. pic.twitter.com/caKFyoYtq1 Permalink 7:02 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Answer to QUIZ du JOUR: The Distribution of a P-Value. Psychologists seem to ignore p is stochastic! pic.twitter.com/wWnYkB4SEk Permalink 3:05 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Reader:”I have read all your books. How do you recommend an average young man navigate the modern world? “. Me:”Never ask a vague question”. Permalink 1:25 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR. What is the probabilisty distribution of a P-Value? (may be offline for 16 hours please put answer in tweet) Permalink 3:09 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb 1) You remove segment of samples and redo P-Values to ensure stability:ignore P, it is its fragility (convexity) @learnfromerror @alxpr1c3 Permalink 3:02 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The only solid use I found for P-Values is a test of robustness across jacknife (here 1-p) @learnfromerror @alxpr1c3 pic.twitter.com/1k3Yko2wyl Permalink 2:54 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb My catalogue of how what is robust in psychology today needs to abide by #LindyEffect https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/708776124441042946   Permalink 2:08 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@zerohedge Nassim Taleb Sums Up America’s Election In 17 “Black Swan” Words http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-12/nassim-taleb-sums-americas-election-17-black-swan-words   Permalink 12:36 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Kahneman is exceptionally scientific as work matches the #LindyEffect . I don’t see him as a psychologist but a decision-theorist. @RiberJan Permalink 12:32 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb It turned out Mr Waugh was spreading rumors of “climate denial” in 2009 & he will not escape. @neilchriss @paulwaugh @PCollinsTimes Permalink 12:00 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@aral Abject moral failure illustrated in 140 characters. https://twitter.com/JohnKerry/status/708368631508262913   Permalink 6:38 AM – 12 Mar 2016

Prostitution, Shillary Clinton, Fragilistas, Monsanto, Mandelbrot | Twitter

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@nntaleb Overt Prostitution is the only form of prostitution that doesn’t desecrate sacred values, unlike lobbying etc. @DavisMets @Scruton_Quotes Permalink 2:41 PM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb When things that shdn’t be sold are for sale: opinion, science, lobby, Shillary Clinton, sacred values are violated. https://twitter.com/scruton_quotes/status/706581855731109894   Permalink 1:09 PM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb France gave the Saudi Prince the Legion of Honor …also sold weapons & Salafis to preach in France. Bureaucrat Fragilistas @Spfannenschmidt Permalink 11:12 AM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb My tweets autodelete every 31 d but there will be periodically more on charlatan passing for scholar @samharrisorg https://twitter.com/partimetroll/status/706534249227091968   Permalink 9:41 AM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb I was the first, before Donaldo Trump, to use twitter to trash journos & talkingheads; do not call me an imitator ! https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/706531140195196932   Permalink 9:32 AM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The #nudge nudgeocratsnoskininthegame nudging us using studies that have < a coinflip probablility of being true.. https://twitter.com/rebeccanomics/status/706439904268570624   Permalink 8:40 AM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb What the fuck are you naming by “science” studies that don’t generalize? @GRPbsci Permalink 12:40 AM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb This FDA Test Could Devastate Monsanto Inc. — The Motley Fool http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/03/05/this-fda-test-could-devastate-monsanto-inc.aspx#.Vtveww6lOyM.twitter   Permalink 11:39 PM – 5 Mar 2016

@LieraMarco 110mila shareholders of Banca Popolare di Vicenza called “musina” (money box) their holdings. In 1 year they lost 90%. @nntaleb #hiddenrisks Permalink 4:23 AM – 5 Mar 2016

@marylovefreedom Which means that psychological “science” should NOT be used as a reliable guide for policy or behavior. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/705692516805419008   Permalink 3:28 PM – 4 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The absurdity of econometric metrics: the more chronically sick people in the population, the higher the GDP. Permalink 10:37 AM – 4 Mar 2016

@nntaleb 6 y later,finally proved a conjecture Mandelbrot and I formulaled but did not prove abt finite variance powerlaws. pic.twitter.com/dw4yeAdJkM Permalink 4:51 AM – 4 Mar 2016

@stan_yurin @nntaleb “You are not replicating properly” sounds familiar. Same with business, diet and fitness charlatans. Permalink 2:10 AM – 4 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Psychologists aren’t getting that if results are SO sensitive to setup,they cannot be robust in real world & trusted https://twitter.com/ScienceNews/status/705478736821559296   Permalink 1:53 AM – 4 Mar 2016

Arabization, Umayyads, Professional Shills, Decision Theory, SITG, Monsanto, Socialites | Twitter

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@nntaleb 2/2 Likewise Abbaside Califs favored settlement of Jews in Baghdad for Arabization because unlike Persians or Chaldeans, Jews were “Arabs”. Permalink 7:57 AM – 2 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Where we learn the Umayyads helped Jews settle in coastal Levant to displace Byzantines settlers/traders.(free PDF) https://twitter.com/Ballandalus/status/704328842530463744   Permalink 7:51 AM – 2 Mar 2016

@nntaleb We need good compilation aggregating professional shills s.a. Jon Entine, Henry I. Miller, Keith Kloor,Tamar Haspel https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/705028460750589952   Permalink 6:12 AM – 2 Mar 2016

@jfrias92 @nntaleb #antifragile pic.twitter.com/hEBHcHRzPM Permalink 4:03 AM – 2 Mar 2016

@nntaleb More robust (and easier) to focus on food distribution than mess w/transgenics with unknown tail risks. #technodopes https://twitter.com/SaraMenker/status/704909887956983808   Permalink 1:05 AM – 2 Mar 2016 (Evaluating gambles using dynamics)

@nntaleb The most important published paper in decision theory I’ve seen (Peters and Gell-Mann) since Thorp’s “Kelly Crit.” https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/704793858194825217   Permalink 2:23 PM – 1 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Even a child wouldn’t say “Even if true, Nuclear bomb expodes “only a small % of the time”. #ProbabilityRiskIgnorant https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/704692089347514368   Permalink 1:33 PM – 1 Mar 2016

@nntaleb More evidence that lack of skin in the game make people stupid… and dangerous. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/704692089347514368   Permalink 11:38 AM – 1 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Social scientists have brain problem not getting: for Fat Tailed dist ALL properties=tail. @sflicht @robinhanson pic.twitter.com/nvYfmgI47q Permalink 7:23 AM – 1 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Prediction: Monsanto to move into organic, away from GMOs. They may be evil, but unlike their shills/technodopes, they aren’t very stupid. Permalink 3:51 AM – 1 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Inversion of skin in the game for big corporations: Monsanto Given Legal Shield in a Chemical Safety Bill http://nyti.ms/1TKummk   Permalink 5:10 PM – 29 Feb 2016

@Danimallian Flint, TBTF, and now this. Singapore’s president makes $4.3M. Our officials are paid by lobbyists. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/704470212909858816   Permalink 5:03 PM – 29 Feb 2016

@RyanHoliday “Preoccupation with efficacy is the main obstacle to a poetic, elegant, robust and heroic life.” Nassim Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 1:30 PM – 29 Feb 2016

@maggieNYT Trump said he’ll open up the 9/11 commission papers that are secret so people can know who “really” knocked down WTC http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/01/us/politics/donald-trump-conspiracy-theories.html?_r=0   Permalink 7:51 AM – 29 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Correction: Should be 2.01 (add, not deduct epsilon) Permalink 6:05 AM – 29 Feb 2016

@nntaleb My current list of “enemies of the good”: 1) Wahabi regime/Saudi Barbaria, 2) Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison/Tony Blair, 3) Monsanto/GMO shills Permalink 5:56 AM – 29 Feb 2016

@nntaleb A simple way to understand why for fat tails the average is always closer to the maximum: (here 1.99 trillion) https://twitter.com/JohnAllenPaulos/status/704297361993031680   Permalink 5:46 AM – 29 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The social media comments on our Real World Risk Mini-Certificate Workshop from attendants: http://www.realworldrisk.com   pic.twitter.com/w9w9EWQqle Permalink 5:32 AM – 29 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Never befriend socialites. (Heuristic du jour) Permalink 5:22 AM – 29 Feb 2016

Saudi Barbaria, Stop-Loss, Olof Palme | Twitter

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@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria will soon be bankrupt:its citizens will dress the same as everyone else &they will take orders from W https://twitter.com/Brian_Whit/status/703843602384859136   Permalink 11:07 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@GMWatch Difference between #Bernie and #Shillary pic.twitter.com/x57JarRiT3 Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The minute you have a stop-loss, the statistical properties of the portfolio become irrelevant. pic.twitter.com/2o2gvKEkwN Permalink 5:38 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb 1) sophistication 2) determination 3) authenticity 4) risk taking @alxpr1c3 Permalink 5:24 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Would you get in a cab driven by a diabetic post-hedonistic Saudi prince? @saadaldeeb Permalink 4:51 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Standing an economic belief on its head. pic.twitter.com/DaDFbQsgCN Permalink 4:43 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Honor Olof Palme, a man who stood for, and died for, peace. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 4:11 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb This is not forecasting but simply ACCOUNTING. @saadaldeeb Permalink 3:26 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Nothing worse than a nerd trying to not look nerdy. Permalink 3:46 PM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb They had $100 bn deficit with oil prices on average 50% higher. Do you own a calculator? @sleuthstock @esmail_afsah @AlArabiya_Eng Permalink 1:29 PM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Simple arithmetic is not “rumors”: $ depletion of reserves per month divided by total @esmail_afsah @AlArabiya_Eng Permalink 1:24 PM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Saudi boy, how much do you deadlift? @ksa12226 @sebinsua Permalink 12:03 PM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Before oil, nobody in the civilized world has much interest in deserts & roaming & looting nomads. https://twitter.com/ksa12226/status/703668359473319936   Permalink 11:52 AM – 27 Feb 2016

@johnrobb NeoCons? >> 0.5% of the electorate at most. All employed by the government, think tanks, or super PACs. https://twitter.com/NinaByzantina/status/703616939445235713   Permalink 8:28 AM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb In other words, Saudi citizens are within 6-9 years of having to become construction workers in the Levantine states & elsewhere. Permalink 6:24 AM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The real reason is that Saudi Arabia is running out of money: unless oil rallies, it wd deplete its reserves in~5y https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/701893005322510337   Permalink 6:20 AM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/aVbkLhSvvd Permalink 3:05 AM – 27 Feb 2016

@LieraMarco Dopo 40 ore con le teste piu’ lucide del mondo nella gestione dei rischi questo pezzo di carta ha molta sostanza pic.twitter.com/8EviS0Izue Permalink 4:39 PM – 26 Feb 2016

Real World Risk Certificate, Borjana, Zari, Markowicz, Stoyan Stoyanov, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Apple pen | Twitter

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@nntaleb As if the rebels never killed civilians? What are you drinking? @janinedigi Permalink 3:34 PM – 26 Feb 2016

@LieraMarco “When you remove religion, people start believing in all kinds of bullshit, such as economics” @nntaleb #RWRI Permalink 12:34 PM – 26 Feb 2016

@nntaleb OK I just bought the Apple pen (and the pro) as a result of the comments. Thanks! Permalink 10:29 AM – 26 Feb 2016

@domineefh during 5 days with @nntaleb & #RWRI i’ve learned more usable staff and beautiful math than during 5+ years at the university Permalink 5:13 AM – 26 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Typing is a Procrustean bed compared to writing longhand. @OneTopQuark Permalink 2:35 AM – 26 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Friends, is there an application and a tablet to email longhand? #LindyEffect predicts a reversion to handwriting (technology adapts to us) Permalink 2:24 AM – 26 Feb 2016

@ewg Food Lobby Spends $101 Million in 2015 to Avert #GMO Labeling http://bit.ly/1oDeq9x   #StopTheDARKAct #RightToKnow Permalink 8:35 PM – 25 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Are you also proud of your smear campaign agents? https://twitter.com/RobbFraley/status/702962046967615489   Permalink 1:12 PM – 25 Feb 2016

@tommiesunshine #WhichHillary? The one controlled by corporate interests & their money? #ImNotWithHer pic.twitter.com/gZkyOwsAvH Permalink 12:23 PM – 25 Feb 2016

@nntaleb volatilità e “fat tails” code spesse https://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/702937718184091648   Permalink 11:42 AM – 25 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Aaron understood the no-tie-allowed, now showing higher clustering in left than right tail #RWRI day 4 pic.twitter.com/Bl97W4xg2l Permalink 11:06 AM – 25 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Day 4 of Real World Risk #RWRI Stoyan Stoyanov showing defects of naive uses of Kolmogorov-Smirnov pic.twitter.com/sbqeETTAxp Permalink 10:16 AM – 25 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Trick to be troll-free. When you block someone, block ALL his followers. The heuristic works wonders. Permalink 4:59 AM – 25 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Learning Markowicz & econ/finance theory before understanding fat tails is wrong; like having to learn astrology prior to astronomy.#REWRI Permalink 4:50 AM – 25 Feb 2016

@VergilDen “Bullshit is convex to the number of variables you have.” #RWRI #BigData @nntaleb Permalink 2:10 PM – 24 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Day 3: Zari’s doctoral advisor was AN Kolmogorov. pic.twitter.com/Lmkpqj8eBz Permalink 12:03 PM – 24 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Day 3: Borjana on asymmetries and extremes pic.twitter.com/wwyoVPwXQb Permalink 8:46 AM – 24 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Day 3 of the Real World Risk Certificate, Boryana presenting Turbulence to a nonturbulent audience. pic.twitter.com/1JbHNpT1m4 Permalink 8:16 AM – 24 Feb 2016

@nntaleb What Are the Chances of a Third World War? Debunking sloppy statistics a la Pinker. Paper with @dottorpax pic.twitter.com/O08nry7mtn Permalink 8:04 AM – 24 Feb 2016

@pascalbouvier utterly impressed by the Real World Risk course led by @nntaleb . Best two days I could have spent in NYC. Fat tails here we come. Permalink 3:35 PM – 23 Feb 2016

@pascalbouvier Second day rocking even more than first day. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/702132645195603968   Permalink 7:23 AM – 23 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Inaugural Real World Risk Certificate, day 2. @AAAAAAAnne pic.twitter.com/HGFpGeltEZ Permalink 6:07 AM – 23 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Medicine is largely an apprenticeship model @KEcurious @DavidBCollum Permalink 5:08 AM – 23 Feb 2016

@nntaleb No I don’t look like Umberto Eco pic.twitter.com/eeY5DdIYaf Permalink 4:53 AM – 23 Feb 2016

@VergilDen When asked how would you explain antifragility to a child, @nntaleb responded “Time is smarter than you.” Permalink 4:09 AM – 23 Feb 2016