Tag Archives: Maximum Entropy Methods

P-Values, Trump, Maximum Entropy Methods, Kahneman, Lindy Effect | Twitter

@nntaleb In addition to the metadistribution of p-values, a technique for large scale simulations via Radon-Nikodym deriv https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Radon%20Nikodym%20Monte%20Carlo.nb.pdf   Permalink 12:23 PM – 14 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Sicilian squid ink at Taormina in London. pic.twitter.com/OIzC6vojNq Permalink 6:29 AM – 14 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Some people, when they change language, if they don’t have an accent in it, also change personality. Permalink 4:57 AM – 14 Mar 2016

@nntaleb I don’t take face value @limitlesskait @realDonaldTrump @nytimes Permalink 12:08 PM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Donaldo, tell us something we don’t know. BTW,Trump wass loved by his butlers while Hillary was hated by bodyguards. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/709089928324489216   Permalink 12:03 PM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Proud of being gentle with the waiter & tough with powerful ass***les rather than reverse. https://www.facebook.com/johnfaithful.hamer/posts/10153499619627683?pnref=story   pic.twitter.com/sdCggdk3D7 Permalink 11:28 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The metadistribution of the p-value and the #replicationcrisis https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/p-val.pdf   Permalink 8:22 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb To summarize from above, P-values are highly stochastic and the metadistribution is not factored in. Compiling notes. #replicationcrisis Permalink 7:58 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@ModeledBehavior Scary final act twist would be Trump successfully runs to the middle & before it’s too late Democrats realize he’s burning down both parties Permalink 7:05 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb (cont) More rigorous proof via Maximum Entropy Methods give a truncated exponential that mimics a beta. pic.twitter.com/caKFyoYtq1 Permalink 7:02 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Answer to QUIZ du JOUR: The Distribution of a P-Value. Psychologists seem to ignore p is stochastic! pic.twitter.com/wWnYkB4SEk Permalink 3:05 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Reader:”I have read all your books. How do you recommend an average young man navigate the modern world? “. Me:”Never ask a vague question”. Permalink 1:25 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR. What is the probabilisty distribution of a P-Value? (may be offline for 16 hours please put answer in tweet) Permalink 3:09 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb 1) You remove segment of samples and redo P-Values to ensure stability:ignore P, it is its fragility (convexity) @learnfromerror @alxpr1c3 Permalink 3:02 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The only solid use I found for P-Values is a test of robustness across jacknife (here 1-p) @learnfromerror @alxpr1c3 pic.twitter.com/1k3Yko2wyl Permalink 2:54 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb My catalogue of how what is robust in psychology today needs to abide by #LindyEffect https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/708776124441042946   Permalink 2:08 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@zerohedge Nassim Taleb Sums Up America’s Election In 17 “Black Swan” Words http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-12/nassim-taleb-sums-americas-election-17-black-swan-words   Permalink 12:36 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Kahneman is exceptionally scientific as work matches the #LindyEffect . I don’t see him as a psychologist but a decision-theorist. @RiberJan Permalink 12:32 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb It turned out Mr Waugh was spreading rumors of “climate denial” in 2009 & he will not escape. @neilchriss @paulwaugh @PCollinsTimes Permalink 12:00 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@aral Abject moral failure illustrated in 140 characters. https://twitter.com/JohnKerry/status/708368631508262913   Permalink 6:38 AM – 12 Mar 2016