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Belgium, P-Values, Nocera, Saudi PR, DARK Act, Monsanto | Twitter

@nntaleb The Saudi origins of Belgium’s Islamist threat   Permalink 4:59 PM – 23 Mar 2016

@nntaleb There is a video see feed   @NathanBiddle Permalink 6:47 AM – 23 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Two works in my mailbox: One Formulation of size and fragility   One Book on Antifragility   Permalink 6:13 AM – 23 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Here is the video on the metadistribution of p-values   and the text is here:   Permalink 7:55 PM – 22 Mar 2016

@davidmoore411 He’s one of few people on the internet who could insult you publicly and you’d still buy his next book. His stuff is that good. @nntaleb Permalink 6:08 PM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb OK, OK, full proof of an exact metadistribution of p-values (covers all hypotheses). Shd I do a video comment? Permalink 3:21 PM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Syrian Christians behave as Muslims in the East, Christians in the West, & are viewed as Muslims in the West and Christians in the East. Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Walid Phares is a Christian Lebanese @dandrezner Permalink 4:54 AM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb What is slowing me down w #SkinintheGame is Isocrates’ Silver Rule for Nations: Treat other nations the way you want them to treat you. Permalink 3:26 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Q: Should we intervene more to “help” countries as we brilliantly did in Lybia, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam, Iran (1953)?   Permalink 2:37 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb “Funding” & “Investments” are the last thing you need. All you need: authenticity & risk. Permalink 2:34 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@cdipaola62 @nntaleb @NoceraNYT Definition of Irony- A writer named “Nocera” finds discussion of Primum non Nocere, unintelligible Permalink 1:47 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Actually, from his name John of Damascus was not Syrian/Aramaic, but likely to be an Arab (*Yahya* Ibn Sarjun, not Yuhanan) @iandavidmorris Permalink 1:38 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb 9 days is nothing. There is the 2005 pre-crisis discussion of my skepticism of models that will eventually be re-opened. @NoceraNYT Permalink 10:29 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb It is called “first do no harm”, avoid “policies with side effects” (primum non nocere) translated: “no nocere, Nocera” @robert_cookson Permalink 10:09 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb If you have trouble understanding this, you really have problems. @robert_cookson   Permalink 9:57 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb A journo who says “unintelligible” reveals more about his intellect than the intelligibility of the subject matter   Permalink 9:36 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Thanks to Scott Robeson, this is the expected pseudo-significant results <5% for true p-value @indianaclimate Permalink 8:05 AM – 20 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Friends, the metadistribution of p-values: rewrote, looking for mistakes bef publ on ArXiv. Permalink 6:08 AM – 20 Mar 2016

@nntaleb For all his defects, more pple would like to become Trump (yacht/American dream) rather than some reasonable-sounding hack criticizing him. Permalink 3:05 PM – 19 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The more efficient you try to be at a given task, the more you will hate it. Permalink 3:51 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@lhfang New Saudi PR effort SAPRAC led by guy who recently helped regime smear Nimr al-Nimr, gov critic they executed. Permalink 2:08 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb A 3% significance is really 16% @pehr_bjornbom @antitrustly @ReneMaric Permalink 12:31 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Real-world rigor (Feynman-like): bring mathematics to deeply understood problems, don’t take deeply understood mathematics to problems. Permalink 12:00 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb To get a real p-val of 5% you need 1.1%; 5% is ~ 26%   @antitrustly @ReneMaric @BrianNosek Permalink 11:33 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@yaneerbaryam Military strategy in a complex world — how antifragility undermines traditional military strategies   @nntaleb Permalink 10:08 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Why didn’t anyone pull out the “p-value” of the “p-value” before? @ReneMaric @BrianNosek Permalink 5:46 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Only solution: it you “really” want a p-value of .05, require .0125! @BrianNosek @ReneMaric Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb I mean p-values are random variables that do not necessarily reflect statistical significance. I can’t find in lit. @ReneMaric @BrianNosek Permalink 5:26 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Why aren’t psychologists (@BrianNosek) aware that p-values have HUGE sampling error? #replicationcrisis   Permalink 5:19 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb typos Permalink 6:41 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb On plane proof p-values are extremely random/volatile & explicit variance as function of n. Permalink 6:34 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Evidence based? That is ignorant BS. Anti-GMO is scientific scrutiny.   Permalink 6:08 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Experiment: Farro w/ squid ink. Permalink 5:18 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb People are so concerned about my age. Permalink 3:57 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Victory! Senate Rejects the DARK Act   via ecowatch Permalink 2:19 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb This is the kind of BS people clueless about tail risk utter. Farmers’ modifications belong to a narrow basin.   Permalink 1:45 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic: when in a hotel for the very first time, reject the first room they give you. Permalink 5:49 AM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Monsanto forces farmers to bear all the liability for its seeds, making itself immune to adverse consequences. Permalink 1:48 AM – 15 Mar 2016

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