P-Values, Growth | Facebook

For those interested in p-values, a short (very technical) paper and a video commentary. I was able to pull out the exact meta-distribution of p-values (i.e. p-values as random variables).
The point is that the same phenomenon will produce p-values all over the map, A true p-value of .12 will produce p-values <.05 more than half the time, so people may never replicate and get the same result.
One Hundred Years of P-Value Bullshit!
The paper: http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf

This is a companion to the short paper at http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues… It explains the problem with p-values giving different values… (3/23/16)


I was at a venue where someone wanted to increase economic growth: “funding” and “investments” were mentioned every 240 characters.

Now some empiricism. Consider that almost all tech companies “in the tails” were not started by “funding”. Take companies you are familiar with: Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook. These companies started with risk-taking. Funding came in small amounts, way later.

Now let us take the idea to its next logical step. The minute something called a “business plan” is created, the idea is corrupt and the BS start dominating. People start thinking in terms of other people’s perception of the business, for “raising cash. Like prostitutes.

We can generalize to economic growth. The problem is that these discussions of “growth” are made by people who have never taken risks.

What is needed? 1) determination, 2) sophistication, 3) authenticity, 4) convexity and above all, 5) risk loving.

PS- Someone wanted to start an academic research center; his aim was to have a structure, a business plan, get research grants, etc. Then do research. I bailed out and did more for a total cost of $1.50, with http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html  (3/21/16)

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