Skip to content

Tag Archives: Philip Tetlock

GMOs, Monsanto, Ramanujan, Philip Tetlock, Max Abrahms, Golden Rice, Blair, Preasymtotics, John Gray, Brexit

@EcoWatch #Obama Expected to Sign Industry-Backed #GMO Label Bill Into Law http://rbl.ms/29FKHvt   @nongmoreport @foodandwater @OrganicConsumer @EWG Permalink 8:45 AM – 14 Jul 2016 @mjd1735 @ziadaboujamra @nntaleb @herrlichmann @AmbJohnBolton @zbig @SonyKapoor @EliLake @ishaantharoor Probability Question:pic.twitter.com/fniXcZysLF Permalink 4:41 PM – 14 Jul 2016 @yaneerbaryam Regulatory capture overriding Vermont GMO labeling bill: Why Activists Are Unhappy With […]

On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure With Implications For Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research

On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure With Implications For Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research Nassim N. Taleb, Philip E. Tetlock AbstractThere are serious statistical differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that have a yes/no type of payoff, the “binaries”, and those that have varying payoffs, which we call the “variable”. Real […]

On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure With Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Prediction Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Philip E. Tetlock :: SSRN

On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure With Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Prediction Markets Nassim Nicholas Taleb NYU-Poly; Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne – Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne (CES) Philip E. Tetlock University of California, Berkeley – Organizational Behavior & Industrial Relations Group; University of Pennsylvania – Management Department June 25, 2013 […]

On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure, with Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Prediction Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Philip E. Tetlock :: SSRN

On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure, with Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Prediction Markets Nassim Nicholas Taleb NYU-Poly Philip E. Tetlock University of California, Berkeley – Organizational Behavior & Industrial Relations Group; University of Pennsylvania – Management Department June 25, 2013 Abstract: There are serious differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that […]