Tag Archives: Turkey

‘My Friend’, Turkey, STALIN, GMOs, Arguing, Scale Dependent Properties, SKIN IN THE GAME | Facebook

Nothing can be both boring and truly important. 7/29/16

To perpetuate a lie, you must whisper it, not shout it. 7/27/16


The expression “my friend”: for a name dropper, it is anyone important; for a politician, anyone who does not vote against him/her; for regular people, a friend; in the mob, “a friend of ours” is another mafia member.

For me it is anyone I run into at a party and can’t remember the first name. 7/27/16


For those of you on a hot summer day want to stroll on a beach, this is the way to do it.

It takes some training; rehearse in the privacy of your living room before doing it in public.

(Aldo Maccione, Jacques Brel, etc…)


L’aventure c’est l’aventure is a 1972 French film directed by Claude Lelouch. It stars Lino Ventura, Jacques Brel, Aldo Maccione and Johnny Hallyday. 7/24/16


Turkey is, after 100 years, a complete failure of top-down secularization. So are Iraq and Syria. You keep pushing religion under the rug, via bureaucrats; it comes back with a vengeance.

Iran has, somewhat, the opposite situation. 7/21/16



An illustration of the notion of minimal type 2 error (no false negative): At the Congress of 1934, for the critical confidence ballot, a minority of the 1288 delegates (perhaps a quarter) voted against Stalin.

Stalin ended up trying to eliminating, during the great purge, not just those who were presumed to have voted against him, but all the delegates who were present. 7/20/16


This picture is worth an indefinite amount of words.

It shows why GMOs are *not* traditional breeding. Few people trained traditionally get complex systems (i.e. those with interractions). But there is a growing number of young people who “get it”, particularly when familiar with P/NP in computer science.

Finally I looked at Monsanto’s financials and it shows GMOs are contracting; as a “technology” GMs are dying and no complicated technology survives unless it is multiplicative. Meanwhile organic is growing rapidly.

The PP page is here

Rahul Gotswani commented on the drawing by Joe Norman for our paper.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's photo.7/14/16


Never argue with people in private (you will not convince them); argue in public to convince others. 7/12/16


Another explanation of Scale Dependent Properties:

Some may believe that *armies create wars* but nobody sane believes that *police create robberies*. 7/7/16


Since more and more of academia is becoming a ritualistic publishing* game that maps less and less to real research, we should force people who want to do “research” to first have a Real World day job, or at least spend 10 years as: lens maker, patent clerc, mafia operator, professional gambler, postman, prison guard, medical doctor, uber driver, militia member, social security clerc, trial lawyer, farmer, restaurant chef, high volume waiter, firefighter (my favorite), lighthouse keeper, etc., while they are doing their initial research.

It is a filtering, BS expurgating mechanism.

I for my part spent the first 21 years in a full-time highly demanding extremely stressful job while studying, researching, and writing my first 3 books at night, and it lowered (in fact, eliminated) my tolerance for fake research.

*I borrow from Saifedean Ammous the apt description “ritualistic game”. 7/6/16


Real World Risk Institute LLC Workshop Announcement. Dear friends, we have:

1) Changed location to a huge room rented from… the Masonic Lodge in NYC, on 23rd St between 5th and 6th Ave.

2) Changed the date of RWRI 3 to October 3-7 2016

3) Changed the non-Antifragile part of the program to add Information, Cybersecurity, Big Data, Complexity (in place of technical finance)

4) Added more scholarship slots.


Horace, Frauds, SaudiBarbaria, Syria, Salafi, Jihadis, Monsanto, Mr Bradford, Gulenists, Turkey, Drezner | Twitter

@nntaleb Horace translated by Fat Tony: “Those you meet on the way up, you will also meet on the way down.” @ArmandDAngour @TijlDeconynck Permalink 9:56 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This Epistle is Gold. @ArmandDAngourpic.twitter.com/tslgg8xuWs Permalink 9:39 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Federal Reserve: Stultorum incurata pudor malus ulcera celat [Horace] The fool through excess modesty hides his wound instead of healing it. Permalink 9:15 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/You don’t become economist by accident but genetic mutation: low curiosity/erudition, inability to be bored by boring stuff, colorlessness Permalink 8:37 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Who would you avoid in a street fight? A young economist who looks like an economist A 75 y.o. who deadlift >405 lbs Permalink 8:07 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Incorporating 3ashura in Skin in the Game: “qorban” @ban_kanj @faleflixpic.twitter.com/EGjszWuo24 Permalink 7:50 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Friends are easy I need interesting enemies. @Spfannenschmidt Permalink 5:33 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Pesticide (herbicide, insecticide,etc.) is systematically giving nature antibiotics followed by chemotherapy, & claim “no evidence” of harm. Permalink 5:30 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ok, more squid ink (it’s Friday)pic.twitter.com/UPsch6QjGr Permalink 6:20 PM – 29 Jul 2016

@Trader_Moe Only Taleb can uncover the connection btwn GMO & Soviet utopianism–both the product of idiot intellectuals.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/759080918392901632   Permalink 11:50 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb One should call IYI people just what they are: Intellectuals Yet Idiots. @AdamThierer @hbkazemi33 @calestouspic.twitter.com/ciiTgLio2l Permalink 10:39 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb السرج المدهّب ما بيعمل من الحمار حصانhttps://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/759068152546390016   Permalink 10:34 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Barba no facit philosophumhttps://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/759068152546390016   Permalink 10:05 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony on Michael Bloomberg: “The man has never been self-owned; he is one of those who get more dependent as they get richer”. Permalink 9:13 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/ When you have skin in the game, boring things like checking the safety of the aircraft cease to be boring. @nntaleb Permalink 9:03 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Exactly the point!!!https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/759046438743527426   Permalink 8:33 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Nothing can be both boring and truly important. Permalink 8:21 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note that Islamic contract law contains terms that are > Latin than Greek; Latin was used in Beirut School of Law. @Nb1769 @ByzantJustice Permalink 7:54 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For fellow funded by Saudi$, investigate U.S.Wahabi preacher Joe Bradford. Hides under Xtian name @joebradfordnet @sylvainlp @GhassanDahhan Permalink 5:50 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Paula, check this (3eli not Eliahu) for similarities. (The sect after death of sons). Hidden religion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eli_(biblical_figure)   @schmittpaula Permalink 5:46 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The French are starting to grow a mini-brain. But take the idea to its logical consequence: Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/GhassanDahhan/status/758994334033195010   Permalink 5:21 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Low tech solutions (unlike GMOs) have no side effects! How ‘Ugly’ Fruits and Vegetables Can Help Solve World Hungerhttp://on.natgeo.com/1Wemto5   Permalink 4:20 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb My review of Wolfram’s book https://www.amazon.com/review/R13FZJNTCNN34Q/ref=cm_cr_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8&ASIN=1579550037   Permalink 5:14 PM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Twitter friends, anyone knows of a Cat Bond ETF? Thanks. Permalink 2:48 PM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Religious Texts are never precise enough–which explains longevity. “The devil can quote the scriptures for his own case” @candela3paz Permalink 2:06 PM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The frauds I am currently exposing: +GMOs +Salafism/SaudiBarbaria +Fallacies by IYI class: Pinker, economists, etc. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 9:56 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Severe error to look at texts; observe social/political behavior. Shiites act like Westerners (Catholicism of 50s) @schmittpaula @mtpollack Permalink 7:55 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont) The error by West to classify Salafis as “religion”( #SaudiBarbaria propaganda); shd be criminalized as genocidal political movement. Permalink 7:49 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The regulation of the cults by the state was proposed by Plato in Laws. Nobody cared for 800 y. Salafism an old ideapic.twitter.com/RXoezTkpzS Permalink 7:31 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb More probable that the source had a genetic mutation than the proba being unconditionally low. @John1ODea Permalink 7:00 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Intellectual life is infected w/ignorant BS vendors s.a. @michaelshermer who called Pinker’s book “well documented”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/758648675203776513   Permalink 6:21 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Armenians of Aleppo among the Christians and minorities extreminated in Syria.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/724705703059972096   Permalink 6:06 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont): Where Pinker is “not even wrong”: HIS data do not match HIS statements. BS Vending. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say  pic.twitter.com/63PAfnw6LC Permalink 6:01 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Collecting comments on draft paper on decline of violence (Why Pinker’s thesis is *not even wrong* to be science).https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say   Permalink 5:06 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb To perpetuate a lie, you must whisper it, not shout it. Permalink 4:35 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Explain your logical flaw: of course they have missiles pointed at us SINCE we are not allies. @spencer_chen Permalink 3:53 PM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Iocus Russicae: Si Donaldus ascendit, Hilaria perdiderit Permalink 10:45 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “My friend”: 1) politicians: anybody, 2) pple: friend 2) namedropper: a hotshot, 2) mafia: another member, 3) me: I forgot his first name. Permalink 10:04 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@TheBrowser “Always apologise, except when you have done something wrong” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:17 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Someone explain in clear logical terms why the US has an alliance w/Saudi Barbaria, but refuses one with Russia on grounds of “democracy”. Permalink 7:04 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (Version 2, longer) People don’t know what they are talking about when they say “religion”.pic.twitter.com/JX4G9OWL9G Permalink 6:12 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Hope Sanchuniathon (in Levantine,Atallah) could exist somewhere in the Syriac stacks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanchuniathon   Permalink 6:40 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Was asked w/my anti-Salafi activism to worry about safety. Wahabis can’t do targeted killing. Too low IQ. Only 87 y.o.s & random children. Permalink 4:36 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@DavidBCollum And Hillary’s bribes from sovereign states are not attempts to influence the election?https://twitter.com/Slate/status/758075479458979840   Permalink 4:13 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Just like cancer stop it before the multiplicative effect. Too late otherwise.https://twitter.com/hanscees/status/758060298947424256   Permalink 3:25 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Typo: I meant “by opposition to “superstitio Permalink 2:14 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (Cont) No term for religion in Greek (just cults) & in latin it meant superstitio (fear of gods). 3rd reading!pic.twitter.com/qIUV3DaJiz Permalink 2:02 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Unlike in France, there are only two types of Jihadis in Lebanon. Those who are incarcerated, & those who have been …liquidated. Permalink 12:43 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb About to spend a few days in France & Lebanon. In France my risk detector is always on alert. Never in Lebanon. Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb NEVER engage Salafis&Co online. Expose then block them. The Jesuits, uberrethoricians, failed to convert a single 1.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/757981820898140160   Permalink 11:24 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Closer to transfats! @trishankkarthik @calestous Permalink 10:33 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Conditional on act of terrorism, what’s the probability of person being Salafi? 99.9% P[A|B] not P[B|A]. Now I can block you. @SaraAssaf Permalink 9:03 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb >99.9% of targeted Euro/US civilians in past 18y by Salafi/Wahabis yet some try equivalence w/Shiism. crypto #ISIS sympathizers @SaraAssaf Permalink 8:47 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A 60 year program of top-down secularization in Syria& Mesopotamia & 100Y in Turkey has led to worsening. @British_Aladdin @AlMesopotamian Permalink 8:40 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Basically the minority rule doesn’t harm in mixed populations. @yaneerbaryam has shown effects of cantons. @British_Aladdin @AlMesopotamian Permalink 8:36 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Paradoxically, in places like Syria where they are native, I would give them their own municipalities, & isolate the rest. @British_Aladdin Permalink 8:31 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Problem is also “measured” & fake-scholars Qatar-Wahabi funded propagandists s.a. Shadi Hamid @shadihamid invading think tanks s.a Brookings Permalink 8:16 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont)Godel-Popper argument: Tolerating the intolerant leads to collapse http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf   To do with Salafis? Permalink 7:37 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb OK, this is the flaneurmobilepic.twitter.com/yLgh4ADsOM Permalink 7:17 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Should I show a picture of my car the flaneurmobile, Yes/No? @WriterPb Permalink 7:00 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Monsanto Shill Juma produces a perfect illustration of a severe IYI reasoning error @Calestous @trishankkarthikpic.twitter.com/B3efJC9i07 Permalink 6:55 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In 2010, closed Twitter acct to focus on Antifragile. Worked! Reopened 11/2012 to punish BS reviewers For SITG shd I Permalink 1:17 PM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Excellent! Convexity effects contradict mean-field/naive evol.@yaneerbaryam @gwaconstable @Plektix @Corina_tarnitapic.twitter.com/J3jfHOuSW0 Permalink 10:58 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Look at the metaproba! Same BS as Jay Ulfedler’s @dtchimp “mathematical model”. @philipbstark @johndurantpic.twitter.com/5pHyJyLLVw Permalink 10:11 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Which probabilities are decidable? Which ones are balloney? @philipbstark @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurantpic.twitter.com/Gdy8L0wjL1 Permalink 9:54 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Salafism: Imagine religion having intolerant beliefs about the State; the State having intolerant beliefs about religion, together. @fpoling Permalink 9:14 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Sorry, pal, but the Sultans had Qanun laws that were of Byzantine origin & separate from Sharia. @Nb1769 Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The idea is: to be “decidable”, error on probability < error on exp. payoff @philipbstark @ReekRend @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurant Permalink 8:51 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@republicofmath I like this message from @nntalebpic.twitter.com/ZzdBxxWyPv Permalink 7:44 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Probability” following the path of maestros Freedman and Stark @philipbstark @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurantpic.twitter.com/NTTjyOGNaL Permalink 7:06 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2) so the ignorance is not just with Christianity; it is to the point that Salafizers talk about Shiite thought without the slightest grasp Permalink 6:19 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 1) My experience w/Salafi and Co: could not find one w/erudition outside Islamic studies; they get lost in “meta” discussions of religion. Permalink 6:17 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@philipbstark @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurant @nntaleb Point is “chance Trump wins” meaningless. See https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/Preprints/611.pdf   re earthquake probability Permalink 1:22 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Meaning absurd to direct “Islamophobia” at Shiites when they act differently. Shd be Salafiphobia. Kapish? @TheBobber Permalink 11:08 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For those of you on a hot summer day want to stroll on a beach, this is the way to do it. Takes some training.https://youtu.be/eTm0X93l8vk   Permalink 10:44 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No”discussion” w/Salafis & Co: the Jesuits tried for 400 y & Jesuits couldn’t convert *a single one* you won’t change his mind on twitter. Permalink 10:07 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Anyone has some backgrounds on Brookings boy Shadi Hamid @shadihamid? Something smells funny. Permalink 9:50 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Monotheistic (Abrahamic) religions are by definition exclusive hence intolerant; unless they recycle pagan creeds.https://twitter.com/primeargument/status/757240531462127616   Permalink 8:51 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This is not a zen proverb but an antisemitic qoranic verse. @DPrabhata Permalink 8:13 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Islamists think their “expertise” allows debating me on religion, as if memorizing multiplication tables made one a mathematician. Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Act most probabilistitic inequalities are missing from Ineq books. Wiki has a great list to compile from. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_inequalities#Probability_theory_and_statistics   @alxpr1c3 Permalink 6:09 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Christian Aramaic (Syriac) separates church from law by using the Greek *nomos* in place of the Aramaic “Din”.pic.twitter.com/VCcdcKa6aO Permalink 5:58 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic meaning of “Din”: all of it = *law*. Remarkably Christian Aramaic uses Nomos for law:separation church/statepic.twitter.com/4uEdKvKcqA Permalink 5:52 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Original meaning of “Religion” in Arabic “Din” = law. Hard to explain “secular but religious” to a Salafi.pic.twitter.com/hWpOu9xau5 Permalink 5:44 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In Malta they write a similar language to Shami in latin alphabet. It works! Permalink 5:58 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb So Mr Bradford you have been getting money from Saudi Sources. I have no more use for you. @joebradfordnet Permalink 4:00 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Bradford are you financed by Saudi Arabia, yes/no @joebradfordnet Permalink 3:55 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Bradford 1) Is your Salafi preaching financed in any way by Saudi Arabia? 2) Were you born or converted? @joebradfordnet Permalink 3:00 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ahman Al-Shathry you keep anwering w/incomprehensible tirades. Are you Salafi/Wahabi, Yes/No? @Abunass3r Permalink 2:11 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Is is Yes or No? Just one word in English. @Abunass3r Permalink 2:02 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ahmad Al-shathry, can you give a straight answer: Yes/No are you a Salafi/Wahabi? @Abunass3r Permalink 1:58 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr. AlSlathry @Abunass3r are you a Salafi/Wahabi, Yes/No?https://twitter.com/Abunass3r/status/756938621379371008   Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No worship without Skin in the Game. The Gods don’t like Cheap Tawk.pic.twitter.com/0DUQ7EWuIJ Permalink 1:24 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is meant to show random violence is only Salafis, not Shiite, Sufi or Sunni-secular. @Streitapfel Permalink 12:26 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Le me rephrase: How many Protestant, Shiites, Sufis, that is, nonSalafis have blown up random people in Europe in 2016? @bollywig @raggedtag Permalink 12:22 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In 2010 summarized The Black Swan in 2nd ed. as few were getting it & talked without knowing what it was about…https://twitter.com/alxpr1c3/status/756903331474309120   Permalink 11:00 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How many Buddhists murder for ‘religion” ?@bollywig @raggedtag Permalink 10:36 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb #Turkey: the press is confused; the purge isn’t against securalists but Gulenists, another type of Islamists. Permalink 10:34 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb What is unacademic abt Leibnitz: he was incapable of working on subjects w/o big substance; even when commissioned to do historical work. Permalink 8:23 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb La7azt ma3 murasalete inno el3alam ahyanlon yista3mlo el-latini [cognitive effort] @CatnissEvercute @Priapus_D Permalink 6:02 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala le’3a Ma fi le’3a bala adab – Hayde ‘3altet Antun s3ade Sha3bna bye7ke sheme biyektob/biye2ra Inglisi msh 3arabe @Priapus_D Permalink 5:23 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala legha. Hayde ghaltet Antun S3adeh. @Priapus_D Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb You cannot talk about antifragile anecdotes without link to the necessary central link to convexity.https://www.academia.edu/26660005/_Anti_Fragility_and_Convex_Responses_in_Medicine   Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Economist rediscovering Antifragile …and poorly.https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/756802988648361984   Permalink 4:59 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 7ada bi3alle2 3a tarjemte?pic.twitter.com/6bVgAmRyaQ Permalink 4:43 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Bil Shami ma3 el 7arf el latinepic.twitter.com/ezHefPzTSJ Permalink 4:19 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Meaning 100% iatrogenics. Think of a pilot who randomly pilots a plane. 100% crash. @Blacklabellogic Permalink 4:38 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 100% for thhttps://twitter.com/blacklabellogic/status/756632506783375360   Permalink 4:32 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb An evening (pre-squid) ink with the indispensable Tom Holland @holland_tompic.twitter.com/ZhI39WPKLy Permalink 4:28 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Malta yok” Fughedaboudit in Turkish, “there is no such thing as Malta”, used in the Levant, partic. my grandparents’ generation. Permalink 3:33 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Tashdemir,you mean they did not brutalize Antifragile? @tasdemirm Permalink 12:43 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb They likely brutalized the newly published Turkish version of *Antifragile*; we can test if it gets stronger.https://twitter.com/MahirZeynalov/status/756410873955090432   Permalink 12:35 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Trump’s nomination proves a rule: *The most flawed of risk takers is more real than the most qualified deadfish.* Find another risk taker! Permalink 11:50 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Three meanings of SHRB in Aramaic. Third is to spread. @menlebenpic.twitter.com/d8w69lmFdR Permalink 11:08 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Discovered Sharbel is not Sharb El = Story of God but Glow of God. @menlebenpic.twitter.com/pNQi1Ld7oz Permalink 11:03 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Answered my own question & derived the Mills ratio for Pearson class of distributions. [could be typos]http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1864278/inverse-mills-ratio-for-non-normal-distributions/1867758#1867758   Permalink 10:23 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For Fat Tony f*** you money is working a job with downtime room meditation & , s a security guard & doing science on the side @alanklement Permalink 8:38 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The case for f*** you money before doing scienxe.https://twitter.com/barabasi/status/756489176007180288   Permalink 8:14 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@forsaken911 Sadly, the 9/11 victims and survivors need a PR machine. Saudi Arabia’s PR machine… http://interc.pt/29Q1uaj   by @lhfang Permalink 6:16 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Then they should learn to keep their mouth shut. Good discipline when you don’t intend to do anything. @hbkazemi33 @FedericaMog Permalink 6:43 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No communiqué by empty suits does anything unless accompanied w/sanctions. Not threats, actions. Doesn’t have to be military. @F1Ruaraidh Permalink 6:16 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Talk talk talk. IYI bureaucrats. Better keep silent UNLESS you do something (like Puting, Erdogan). Kapish?https://twitter.com/FedericaMog/status/756174592608272384   Permalink 5:57 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note that this scene dates 3 years *after* Fat Tony’s advice in Antifragile. Permalink 5:42 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The main advice Fat Tony will give you: from the position of f*** you money (John Goodman in The Gambler)https://youtu.be/xdfeXqHFmPI   Permalink 5:39 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@yaneerbaryam A brief note: Why Silver was tripped up on Trumppic.twitter.com/nwejso8GUG Permalink 7:04 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note that brko/brkto is corrupted in Levantine: rikbo/rikbto. @menleben @holland_tom Permalink 7:30 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Concluding the Daniel Drezner: @dandrezner is poster boy of the IYI class:totally clueless & no accountability #SITGhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/746879505659207680   Permalink 7:27 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note afo (face) we use “afa” back [wesh = face] @menleben Permalink 7:24 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb رجعت حليمة لعادتا القديمة! @ArmandDAngour Permalink 6:12 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@ArmandDAngour @nntaleb nice! Cf. Horace (Epist.1.X.24)’naturam expelles furca, tamen usque recurret’, expel nature with a pitchfork, it will always return Permalink 5:58 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Syriachttps://twitter.com/menleben/status/756111974811959297   Permalink 6:03 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Chassez le naturel il revient au gallop. Permalink 5:46 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Likewise when I block someone for trolling, I automatically block all his followers.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/755865542460837888   Permalink 5:05 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Turkey: Failure of secularization from the top (so for Syria and Iraq). Iran: the reverse? Permalink 4:22 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I never compromise, never with ethics. @zayn_300 @farnamstreet Permalink 4:42 PM – 20 Jul 2016

@lukasnaugle “When conflicted between two choices, take neither.” @nntalebpic.twitter.com/TinN9udF0u Permalink 1:17 PM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No type 2 error: Congress of 1934,minority of 1288 delegates voted anonymously ag Staln. He killed almot all of 1288pic.twitter.com/AM6MYeJqoF Permalink 1:42 PM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A heuristic method to price American Options, part of my deck of unpublished results @EmanuelDerman @iMetaldogpic.twitter.com/F8Epc6p5F1 Permalink 11:11 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Gave a partial answer with proof for Inverse Mills Ratio. Now need to generalize to ALL dist.http://math.stackexchange.com/q/1864278/88078?stw=2   Permalink 10:56 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 5) Ramanujan’s m.o: intuition + endless trial-and-error. Computers don’t give direct intuition, but accelerate trials, feeding intuition. Permalink 9:29 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Do you think pandits know more? #IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiots) @davidharsanyi @Trader_Moe Permalink 8:59 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 4/Mathematica is bringing back the Babylonian way of doing math. What if Ramanujan had Mathematica? @stephen_wolframpic.twitter.com/oPelrRXaNg Permalink 8:57 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb To evaluate the truthfulness of a statement requires statements of higher universality/abstraction. No “evidence” without probability theory Permalink 7:02 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Venetians were Franj but also Banadiqa (bunduqia), means also bastard or mixed parentage. Bandouq means shrewd.@FullTiltonic @holland_tom Permalink 5:57 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In Arabic Med is Ba7r Er- Rum so: Rumi= Mediterranean Christian Franji= Northern European Sqalibi= Slav Farisi= Persian @holland_tom Permalink 5:35 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Coalition is *also* killing civilians in Syria. Why don’t we call Hollande a butcher? Because no Qatari PR firm?pic.twitter.com/EsHjLL7sCw Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Delenda Monsanto est.pic.twitter.com/x0lDhvBnr8 Permalink 4:14 PM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Agamemnon entering battle in state of madness. In the Iliad, both sides, Hector & Achilles are heroes.pic.twitter.com/awDPXD9Zgc Permalink 1:19 PM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb And here the wrath of Recep, not counting the death penaltyhttps://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/755416999451320320   Permalink 10:07 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb To listen to the Wrath of Achilles son of Peleus against Agammemnon son of Atrides in Attic Greekhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_F7ZBqptugI   Permalink 9:59 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Three thousand years ago, in the same location, the wrath of Achilleos … Μῆνιν ἄειδε, θεά, Πηληιάδεω Ἀχιλῆοςpic.twitter.com/weLBURfVLH Permalink 9:56 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Unsure: Some are ethnically Greek, most are mixed Phoenician-Greek-Ghassanids; same blood as Cypriots https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiochian_Greek_Christians   @tri_moreta Permalink 8:40 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb [Silver rule/Ethics] I am a minority (Greek Orthdx) & as such I don’t support Erdogan. If I were Sunni, would I support him? I can’t answer. Permalink 7:49 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The war agnst ISIS showed that an airforce is almost only useful against enemy with an airforce. Even less for coups. #Turkey @yaneerbaryam Permalink 6:41 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A probability question (for those into probability)http://math.stackexchange.com/q/1864278/88078?stw=2   Permalink 6:31 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb It takes a diamond to cut a diamond @EmanuelDerman @carmi797 Permalink 6:07 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Italiano du jour: “chiodo schiaccia chiodo” @EmanuelDerman Permalink 5:05 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@RachelsNews All hands on deck ! please sign and RThttps://twitter.com/vtrighttoknow/status/755145245755580416   Permalink 7:58 PM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Policy pple @dandrezner et al. don’t realize “BS” isn’t expression of disagreement, but contempt, as w/astrologists.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/755051465719283712   Permalink 3:22 PM – 18 Jul 2016

@TalebBot We tend to define “rude” less by the words used (what is said) than by the status of the recipient (to whom it is addressed). Permalink 2:33 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Working with the nastiest of all probability distributions: Pearson family IV. Science is never closed.pic.twitter.com/GYSN5XVOot Permalink 11:52 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No, people are sensitive when they feel an ever so slight loss of privilege because of ethnicity, as in Leb/Syria. @LudWitt @joshua_landis Permalink 11:27 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For those interested in knowing why I am allergic to pol science BS entailing probabilitypic.twitter.com/YOOqh8ndlF Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb These are NOT generalizations. Disproportional power brings instability. Kapish? Only decentralization works. @joshua_landis @LudWitt Permalink 11:12 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Cycle: IRAQ: Sunni opprss Shias=>2004,Shias oprss Sunnis=>ISIS SYRIA: Sunni oprss Alawis=>Alws oprss Sunnis=>war.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/755091776738766851   Permalink 10:48 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Silver rule: I ask myself: if I were Sunni, what would make me a Salafi? 1) humiliation 2) intrusion 3) patronizing IYI. All these soluble. Permalink 8:42 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb That is not repentance. If Drezner were repentant, he would not be spewing geopolitical BS w/o #SITG. Kapish? @EmilArchambault @dandrezner Permalink 8:11 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb BS vendor Dan Drezner @dandrezner promoted Iraq war & still unrepentant. To protect society (#SITG) such pple shd Permalink 7:47 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The principle لك دينك و لي دينيhttps://twitter.com/HyperDupont/status/755036362198360064   Permalink 7:04 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 3) Hence proposed local autonomy for Islamists to be as Islamists as they want *in* their neighborhood, decentralization; they shd Amishify Permalink 6:19 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2) My impression talking to Islamists is that feel misunderstood by IYI bureaucrats, want to be left autonomous. Brcrts,talk to them. #SITG Permalink 6:11 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 1) When ISIS was still occupying parts of Tripoli, spent a day (hiding my accent) there, talking to sympathizers.pic.twitter.com/sITCpMvamY Permalink 6:09 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb One thing about Erdogan: those who like him *love* him. Like Brexiters, Islamists are those tired of the 100y patronizing secular IYI class Permalink 5:35 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Sultan played the situation like a violin Turkey government seemed to have list of arrests prepared http://reut.rs/2a4GKwA   via @Reuters Permalink 5:27 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb When “short” treasuries, I had MY money on the line.Daniel Drezner the sickening man called Iraq war &paid no price for the dead @dandrezner Permalink 4:49 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@bee_starship You rock for RT this @rob_swire my family is Iraqi Shia and we cop so much crap. Know the difference people ️https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/753940487829086209   Permalink 3:50 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For the amnesiacs: in 1826 Mahmud II incited the Janissaries to revolt, to terminate them (execute & imprison them).pic.twitter.com/RSowGdkA9T Permalink 6:51 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Drezner boy: not possible to explain to bullshit vendors what is and what is not bullshit, what’s rigorous &what’s crap. Kapish? @dandrezner Permalink 3:06 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The only other explanation is that the F16 pilots were economists/social scientists, all show no go.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/754750077311352833   Permalink 12:03 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This is very, very strange: 2 rebel F16s had a lock on Erdogan’s plane but didn’t fire! Yet they bombed Parliament.https://twitter.com/ziadaboujamra/status/754730470001283073   Permalink 11:50 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Which (almost) ends a month-long tweet storm for the n-summed lognormal! It works!pic.twitter.com/SkRQb94yhg Permalink 8:09 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Respect! @Pete_Spence Permalink 7:56 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb كان لازم سعيد عقل يسميا “اللغة الشامية” مش بس اللبنانية و يتعلم السريايا http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm  https://twitter.com/menleben/status/754682479051673600   Permalink 7:30 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Corrected1 Life is trial and error. @wolframpic.twitter.com/7KraMtcHPs Permalink 6:58 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Warning: there may be a problem in conversion table t2: “n” shd be inside not outside moments. @wolframpic.twitter.com/jZYlXx4ehs Permalink 6:37 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Student T is much much more civilized than the Lognormal @hbkazemi33pic.twitter.com/UetGm5tXf7 Permalink 6:32 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Paper: “preasymptotics of sums of random variables in the subexponential class”, first presented at @DrCirillo’s conference @John1ODea Permalink 6:15 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Et voila! The Lognormal is very very stubborn but the solution was simple: here it gave-in thanks to @wolframpic.twitter.com/5lv269XEB1 Permalink 6:11 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Sums of “weird” r. variables that converge slowly [LogNormal] can be ONLY be treated preasymptotically as Pearson IVpic.twitter.com/W4YpdHlAR2 Permalink 5:58 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A remark: Jay Ulfedler’s @dtchimp “mathematical model” to predict exudes, smells, reeks, of bullshit.https://twitter.com/dtchimp/status/754621708812902400   Permalink 5:32 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Leibnitz who (co)invented calculus knew only basic math bef. age of 26. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Wilhelm_Leibniz   @stephen_wolframpic.twitter.com/1gfKJkXqYZ Permalink 4:32 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The weird thing about #Turkey: pro-democracy pple worldwide against coup; all Salafis pro-Isis pro-Jihad worldwide also cheering. NonKapish! Permalink 4:06 PM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Chap 1: In a dialogue with Fat Tony, he asks me: – Why did you kill me? – Just business, your FatToniness. Only bizness, nothing personal. Permalink 1:28 PM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb They want to hide something. Or they look like they are hiding something. And insult the intelligence of the publichttps://twitter.com/NonGMOProject/status/754388911921790976   Permalink 11:58 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Yesterday tried to work on SkinInTheGame. But Nice in the AM 28 Pages in PM Turkey in Eve. Only wrote chapter title: “Republic of Tawk”. Permalink 10:55 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The great sucker problem: blame the people in Soviet Russia for not being up to par, do not blame the regime.https://twitter.com/Sanelino/status/754330440056659968   Permalink 8:08 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The moral: When doing a coup in 2016 anywhere on the planet, fughedaboud local TV, occupy Twitter and Facebook headquarters in San Francisco Permalink 7:47 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb These EU empty suits just tawk. Words words words they never had a real job & think their job is a real job.https://twitter.com/eevriviades/status/754287863680929792   Permalink 5:28 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@TalebBot Most mistakes get worse when you try to correct them. Permalink 8:33 PM – 14 Jul 2016

@TalebBot The main reason to go to school is to learn *how not* to think like a professor. Permalink 8:33 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@TalebBot It is a very powerful manipulation to let others win the small battles. Permalink 2:33 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Articles with words but no information have sentences s.a.”but whoever comes out on top, democracy is sure to lose”https://twitter.com/ForeignPolicy/status/754121094844612608   Permalink 6:31 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Spreading this warning. This is common with the Syrian war.https://twitter.com/ekrispin/status/754085153778139137   Permalink 4:23 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@karimbitar The correct Lenin quote is: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”https://twitter.com/gerardaraud/status/754047290583683072   Permalink 1:45 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb On my list of things to crumble: + Saudi Barbaria [STARTED] + Bureaucristan/econ “elites” IYIs [STARTED] + Monsantohttps://twitter.com/LongShortTrader/status/754030858596646912   Permalink 12:23 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb My impression reading the #28pages is that had the info been public, we would have heard calls to invade Saudi Barbaria instead of Iraq. Permalink 11:44 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How about those who love *either* logic or *both* mathematics *and* deadlifting?https://twitter.com/thatsoftwareguy/status/754010345551847425   Permalink 11:00 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I deleted the tweet about Paris torture because the info was denied by the “Procureur General.”(chief prosecutor) Permalink 10:49 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How PsychoBS Hedgehog-fox fails: @Ptetlock “Pilot of the plane is hedgehog he is too focused on preventing crash”.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/691647327178719233   Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb People don’t know what they are talking about when they say “religion”.pic.twitter.com/dLdL6FTYnr Permalink 6:31 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The danger of Salafism is in its treatment of religion as LAW & political system. Violence is the result.https://twitter.com/yzilber/status/753942564428976128   Permalink 6:24 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Designation “Islam” is absurd; there are 3 religions. -Shia -Sunni secular, Ottoman, Sufi, urban… -Salafi/Wahabi (ISIS, Saudi Barbaria) Permalink 6:13 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb As predicted from minority rule: GMOs going extinct, sales contracting. Paying Farmers to Go Organic Inhttp://nyti.ms/29HXafa   Permalink 6:05 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Problem is religions are not banned. If Nazism is banned, Salafism/Wahabism must be banned. Shut down Saudi Arabia.https://twitter.com/swensn/status/753933839521558528   Permalink 5:48 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Anyone proGMOs on “scientific” grounds is 50y behind,ignorant of complexity, or just stupid https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/photos/a.10150109720973375.279515.13012333374/10153978116453375/?type=3&theater  pic.twitter.com/GFLabc93af Permalink 5:43 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@Konstant_V @nntaleb next time anyone asks why #Nice happened I will show him this:http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/07/15/saudi-funded-mosque-opened-nice-two-weeks-attack/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social   Permalink 5:36 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Salafi Mosques are the root. Since 2001 the idiotic West let Saudi “allies” keep spreading Salafism. Destroy Riad.https://twitter.com/hbkazemi33/status/753920423557992448   Permalink 4:56 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Revisiting Popper’s (Goedel’s) paradox: Why Salafis should be confined just for being Salafis. Delenda Saudi Arabia.pic.twitter.com/aqCmLxet5c Permalink 4:50 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Salafi is Salafi is Salafi, no nuance. Salafi is inherently violent terrorism. Those who promote Salafism are guiltyhttps://twitter.com/JustinRaimondo/status/753780246055268352   Permalink 4:20 AM – 15 Jul 2016