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Horace, Frauds, SaudiBarbaria, Syria, Salafi, Jihadis, Monsanto, Mr Bradford, Gulenists, Turkey, Drezner | Twitter

@nntaleb Horace translated by Fat Tony: “Those you meet on the way up, you will also meet on the way down.” @ArmandDAngour @TijlDeconynck Permalink 9:56 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This Epistle is Gold. Permalink 9:39 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Federal Reserve: Stultorum incurata pudor malus ulcera celat [Horace] The fool through excess modesty hides his wound instead of healing it. Permalink 9:15 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/You don’t become economist by accident but genetic mutation: low curiosity/erudition, inability to be bored by boring stuff, colorlessness Permalink 8:37 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Who would you avoid in a street fight? A young economist who looks like an economist A 75 y.o. who deadlift >405 lbs Permalink 8:07 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Incorporating 3ashura in Skin in the Game: “qorban” @ban_kanj Permalink 7:50 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Friends are easy I need interesting enemies. @Spfannenschmidt Permalink 5:33 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Pesticide (herbicide, insecticide,etc.) is systematically giving nature antibiotics followed by chemotherapy, & claim “no evidence” of harm. Permalink 5:30 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ok, more squid ink (it’s Friday) Permalink 6:20 PM – 29 Jul 2016

@Trader_Moe Only Taleb can uncover the connection btwn GMO & Soviet utopianism–both the product of idiot intellectuals.   Permalink 11:50 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb One should call IYI people just what they are: Intellectuals Yet Idiots. @AdamThierer @hbkazemi33 Permalink 10:39 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb السرج المدهّب ما بيعمل من الحمار حصان   Permalink 10:34 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Barba no facit philosophum   Permalink 10:05 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony on Michael Bloomberg: “The man has never been self-owned; he is one of those who get more dependent as they get richer”. Permalink 9:13 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/ When you have skin in the game, boring things like checking the safety of the aircraft cease to be boring. @nntaleb Permalink 9:03 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Exactly the point!!!   Permalink 8:33 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Nothing can be both boring and truly important. Permalink 8:21 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note that Islamic contract law contains terms that are > Latin than Greek; Latin was used in Beirut School of Law. @Nb1769 @ByzantJustice Permalink 7:54 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For fellow funded by Saudi$, investigate U.S.Wahabi preacher Joe Bradford. Hides under Xtian name @joebradfordnet @sylvainlp @GhassanDahhan Permalink 5:50 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Paula, check this (3eli not Eliahu) for similarities. (The sect after death of sons). Hidden religion   @schmittpaula Permalink 5:46 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The French are starting to grow a mini-brain. But take the idea to its logical consequence: Saudi Barbaria.   Permalink 5:21 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Low tech solutions (unlike GMOs) have no side effects! How ‘Ugly’ Fruits and Vegetables Can Help Solve World Hunger   Permalink 4:20 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb My review of Wolfram’s book   Permalink 5:14 PM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Twitter friends, anyone knows of a Cat Bond ETF? Thanks. Permalink 2:48 PM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Religious Texts are never precise enough–which explains longevity. “The devil can quote the scriptures for his own case” @candela3paz Permalink 2:06 PM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The frauds I am currently exposing: +GMOs +Salafism/SaudiBarbaria +Fallacies by IYI class: Pinker, economists, etc.   Permalink 9:56 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Severe error to look at texts; observe social/political behavior. Shiites act like Westerners (Catholicism of 50s) @schmittpaula @mtpollack Permalink 7:55 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont) The error by West to classify Salafis as “religion”( #SaudiBarbaria propaganda); shd be criminalized as genocidal political movement. Permalink 7:49 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The regulation of the cults by the state was proposed by Plato in Laws. Nobody cared for 800 y. Salafism an old Permalink 7:31 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb More probable that the source had a genetic mutation than the proba being unconditionally low. @John1ODea Permalink 7:00 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Intellectual life is infected w/ignorant BS vendors s.a. @michaelshermer who called Pinker’s book “well documented”.   Permalink 6:21 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Armenians of Aleppo among the Christians and minorities extreminated in Syria.   Permalink 6:06 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont): Where Pinker is “not even wrong”: HIS data do not match HIS statements. BS Vending. Permalink 6:01 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Collecting comments on draft paper on decline of violence (Why Pinker’s thesis is *not even wrong* to be science).   Permalink 5:06 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb To perpetuate a lie, you must whisper it, not shout it. Permalink 4:35 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Explain your logical flaw: of course they have missiles pointed at us SINCE we are not allies. @spencer_chen Permalink 3:53 PM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Iocus Russicae: Si Donaldus ascendit, Hilaria perdiderit Permalink 10:45 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “My friend”: 1) politicians: anybody, 2) pple: friend 2) namedropper: a hotshot, 2) mafia: another member, 3) me: I forgot his first name. Permalink 10:04 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@TheBrowser “Always apologise, except when you have done something wrong” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:17 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Someone explain in clear logical terms why the US has an alliance w/Saudi Barbaria, but refuses one with Russia on grounds of “democracy”. Permalink 7:04 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (Version 2, longer) People don’t know what they are talking about when they say “religion” Permalink 6:12 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Hope Sanchuniathon (in Levantine,Atallah) could exist somewhere in the Syriac stacks.   Permalink 6:40 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Was asked w/my anti-Salafi activism to worry about safety. Wahabis can’t do targeted killing. Too low IQ. Only 87 y.o.s & random children. Permalink 4:36 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@DavidBCollum And Hillary’s bribes from sovereign states are not attempts to influence the election?   Permalink 4:13 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Just like cancer stop it before the multiplicative effect. Too late otherwise.   Permalink 3:25 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Typo: I meant “by opposition to “superstitio Permalink 2:14 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (Cont) No term for religion in Greek (just cults) & in latin it meant superstitio (fear of gods). 3rd reading! Permalink 2:02 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Unlike in France, there are only two types of Jihadis in Lebanon. Those who are incarcerated, & those who have been …liquidated. Permalink 12:43 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb About to spend a few days in France & Lebanon. In France my risk detector is always on alert. Never in Lebanon. Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb NEVER engage Salafis&Co online. Expose then block them. The Jesuits, uberrethoricians, failed to convert a single 1.   Permalink 11:24 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Closer to transfats! @trishankkarthik @calestous Permalink 10:33 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Conditional on act of terrorism, what’s the probability of person being Salafi? 99.9% P[A|B] not P[B|A]. Now I can block you. @SaraAssaf Permalink 9:03 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb >99.9% of targeted Euro/US civilians in past 18y by Salafi/Wahabis yet some try equivalence w/Shiism. crypto #ISIS sympathizers @SaraAssaf Permalink 8:47 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A 60 year program of top-down secularization in Syria& Mesopotamia & 100Y in Turkey has led to worsening. @British_Aladdin @AlMesopotamian Permalink 8:40 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Basically the minority rule doesn’t harm in mixed populations. @yaneerbaryam has shown effects of cantons. @British_Aladdin @AlMesopotamian Permalink 8:36 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Paradoxically, in places like Syria where they are native, I would give them their own municipalities, & isolate the rest. @British_Aladdin Permalink 8:31 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Problem is also “measured” & fake-scholars Qatar-Wahabi funded propagandists s.a. Shadi Hamid @shadihamid invading think tanks s.a Brookings Permalink 8:16 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont)Godel-Popper argument: Tolerating the intolerant leads to collapse   To do with Salafis? Permalink 7:37 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb OK, this is the Permalink 7:17 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Should I show a picture of my car the flaneurmobile, Yes/No? @WriterPb Permalink 7:00 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Monsanto Shill Juma produces a perfect illustration of a severe IYI reasoning error @Calestous Permalink 6:55 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In 2010, closed Twitter acct to focus on Antifragile. Worked! Reopened 11/2012 to punish BS reviewers For SITG shd I Permalink 1:17 PM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Excellent! Convexity effects contradict mean-field/naive evol.@yaneerbaryam @gwaconstable @Plektix Permalink 10:58 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Look at the metaproba! Same BS as Jay Ulfedler’s @dtchimp “mathematical model”. @philipbstark Permalink 10:11 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Which probabilities are decidable? Which ones are balloney? @philipbstark @PhillipsPasha @mtracey Permalink 9:54 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Salafism: Imagine religion having intolerant beliefs about the State; the State having intolerant beliefs about religion, together. @fpoling Permalink 9:14 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Sorry, pal, but the Sultans had Qanun laws that were of Byzantine origin & separate from Sharia. @Nb1769 Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The idea is: to be “decidable”, error on probability < error on exp. payoff @philipbstark @ReekRend @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurant Permalink 8:51 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@republicofmath I like this message from Permalink 7:44 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Probability” following the path of maestros Freedman and Stark @philipbstark @PhillipsPasha @mtracey Permalink 7:06 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2) so the ignorance is not just with Christianity; it is to the point that Salafizers talk about Shiite thought without the slightest grasp Permalink 6:19 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 1) My experience w/Salafi and Co: could not find one w/erudition outside Islamic studies; they get lost in “meta” discussions of religion. Permalink 6:17 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@philipbstark @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurant @nntaleb Point is “chance Trump wins” meaningless. See   re earthquake probability Permalink 1:22 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Meaning absurd to direct “Islamophobia” at Shiites when they act differently. Shd be Salafiphobia. Kapish? @TheBobber Permalink 11:08 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For those of you on a hot summer day want to stroll on a beach, this is the way to do it. Takes some training.   Permalink 10:44 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No”discussion” w/Salafis & Co: the Jesuits tried for 400 y & Jesuits couldn’t convert *a single one* you won’t change his mind on twitter. Permalink 10:07 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Anyone has some backgrounds on Brookings boy Shadi Hamid @shadihamid? Something smells funny. Permalink 9:50 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Monotheistic (Abrahamic) religions are by definition exclusive hence intolerant; unless they recycle pagan creeds.   Permalink 8:51 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This is not a zen proverb but an antisemitic qoranic verse. @DPrabhata Permalink 8:13 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Islamists think their “expertise” allows debating me on religion, as if memorizing multiplication tables made one a mathematician. Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Act most probabilistitic inequalities are missing from Ineq books. Wiki has a great list to compile from.   @alxpr1c3 Permalink 6:09 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Christian Aramaic (Syriac) separates church from law by using the Greek *nomos* in place of the Aramaic “Din” Permalink 5:58 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic meaning of “Din”: all of it = *law*. Remarkably Christian Aramaic uses Nomos for law:separation church/ Permalink 5:52 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Original meaning of “Religion” in Arabic “Din” = law. Hard to explain “secular but religious” to a Permalink 5:44 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In Malta they write a similar language to Shami in latin alphabet. It works! Permalink 5:58 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb So Mr Bradford you have been getting money from Saudi Sources. I have no more use for you. @joebradfordnet Permalink 4:00 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Bradford are you financed by Saudi Arabia, yes/no @joebradfordnet Permalink 3:55 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Bradford 1) Is your Salafi preaching financed in any way by Saudi Arabia? 2) Were you born or converted? @joebradfordnet Permalink 3:00 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ahman Al-Shathry you keep anwering w/incomprehensible tirades. Are you Salafi/Wahabi, Yes/No? @Abunass3r Permalink 2:11 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Is is Yes or No? Just one word in English. @Abunass3r Permalink 2:02 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ahmad Al-shathry, can you give a straight answer: Yes/No are you a Salafi/Wahabi? @Abunass3r Permalink 1:58 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr. AlSlathry @Abunass3r are you a Salafi/Wahabi, Yes/No?   Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No worship without Skin in the Game. The Gods don’t like Cheap Permalink 1:24 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is meant to show random violence is only Salafis, not Shiite, Sufi or Sunni-secular. @Streitapfel Permalink 12:26 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Le me rephrase: How many Protestant, Shiites, Sufis, that is, nonSalafis have blown up random people in Europe in 2016? @bollywig @raggedtag Permalink 12:22 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In 2010 summarized The Black Swan in 2nd ed. as few were getting it & talked without knowing what it was about…   Permalink 11:00 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How many Buddhists murder for ‘religion” ?@bollywig @raggedtag Permalink 10:36 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb #Turkey: the press is confused; the purge isn’t against securalists but Gulenists, another type of Islamists. Permalink 10:34 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb What is unacademic abt Leibnitz: he was incapable of working on subjects w/o big substance; even when commissioned to do historical work. Permalink 8:23 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb La7azt ma3 murasalete inno el3alam ahyanlon yista3mlo el-latini [cognitive effort] @CatnissEvercute @Priapus_D Permalink 6:02 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala le’3a Ma fi le’3a bala adab – Hayde ‘3altet Antun s3ade Sha3bna bye7ke sheme biyektob/biye2ra Inglisi msh 3arabe @Priapus_D Permalink 5:23 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala legha. Hayde ghaltet Antun S3adeh. @Priapus_D Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb You cannot talk about antifragile anecdotes without link to the necessary central link to convexity.   Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Economist rediscovering Antifragile …and poorly.   Permalink 4:59 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 7ada bi3alle2 3a tarjemte? Permalink 4:43 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Bil Shami ma3 el 7arf el Permalink 4:19 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Meaning 100% iatrogenics. Think of a pilot who randomly pilots a plane. 100% crash. @Blacklabellogic Permalink 4:38 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 100% for th   Permalink 4:32 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb An evening (pre-squid) ink with the indispensable Tom Holland Permalink 4:28 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Malta yok” Fughedaboudit in Turkish, “there is no such thing as Malta”, used in the Levant, partic. my grandparents’ generation. Permalink 3:33 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Tashdemir,you mean they did not brutalize Antifragile? @tasdemirm Permalink 12:43 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb They likely brutalized the newly published Turkish version of *Antifragile*; we can test if it gets stronger.   Permalink 12:35 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Trump’s nomination proves a rule: *The most flawed of risk takers is more real than the most qualified deadfish.* Find another risk taker! Permalink 11:50 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Three meanings of SHRB in Aramaic. Third is to spread. Permalink 11:08 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Discovered Sharbel is not Sharb El = Story of God but Glow of God. Permalink 11:03 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Answered my own question & derived the Mills ratio for Pearson class of distributions. [could be typos]   Permalink 10:23 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For Fat Tony f*** you money is working a job with downtime room meditation & , s a security guard & doing science on the side @alanklement Permalink 8:38 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The case for f*** you money before doing scienxe.   Permalink 8:14 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@forsaken911 Sadly, the 9/11 victims and survivors need a PR machine. Saudi Arabia’s PR machine…   by @lhfang Permalink 6:16 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Then they should learn to keep their mouth shut. Good discipline when you don’t intend to do anything. @hbkazemi33 @FedericaMog Permalink 6:43 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No communiqué by empty suits does anything unless accompanied w/sanctions. Not threats, actions. Doesn’t have to be military. @F1Ruaraidh Permalink 6:16 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Talk talk talk. IYI bureaucrats. Better keep silent UNLESS you do something (like Puting, Erdogan). Kapish?   Permalink 5:57 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note that this scene dates 3 years *after* Fat Tony’s advice in Antifragile. Permalink 5:42 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The main advice Fat Tony will give you: from the position of f*** you money (John Goodman in The Gambler)   Permalink 5:39 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@yaneerbaryam A brief note: Why Silver was tripped up on Permalink 7:04 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note that brko/brkto is corrupted in Levantine: rikbo/rikbto. @menleben @holland_tom Permalink 7:30 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Concluding the Daniel Drezner: @dandrezner is poster boy of the IYI class:totally clueless & no accountability #SITG   Permalink 7:27 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note afo (face) we use “afa” back [wesh = face] @menleben Permalink 7:24 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb رجعت حليمة لعادتا القديمة! @ArmandDAngour Permalink 6:12 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@ArmandDAngour @nntaleb nice! Cf. Horace (Epist.1.X.24)’naturam expelles furca, tamen usque recurret’, expel nature with a pitchfork, it will always return Permalink 5:58 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Syriac   Permalink 6:03 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Chassez le naturel il revient au gallop. Permalink 5:46 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Likewise when I block someone for trolling, I automatically block all his followers.   Permalink 5:05 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Turkey: Failure of secularization from the top (so for Syria and Iraq). Iran: the reverse? Permalink 4:22 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I never compromise, never with ethics. @zayn_300 @farnamstreet Permalink 4:42 PM – 20 Jul 2016

@lukasnaugle “When conflicted between two choices, take neither.” Permalink 1:17 PM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No type 2 error: Congress of 1934,minority of 1288 delegates voted anonymously ag Staln. He killed almot all of Permalink 1:42 PM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A heuristic method to price American Options, part of my deck of unpublished results @EmanuelDerman Permalink 11:11 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Gave a partial answer with proof for Inverse Mills Ratio. Now need to generalize to ALL dist.   Permalink 10:56 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 5) Ramanujan’s m.o: intuition + endless trial-and-error. Computers don’t give direct intuition, but accelerate trials, feeding intuition. Permalink 9:29 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Do you think pandits know more? #IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiots) @davidharsanyi @Trader_Moe Permalink 8:59 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 4/Mathematica is bringing back the Babylonian way of doing math. What if Ramanujan had Mathematica? Permalink 8:57 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb To evaluate the truthfulness of a statement requires statements of higher universality/abstraction. No “evidence” without probability theory Permalink 7:02 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Venetians were Franj but also Banadiqa (bunduqia), means also bastard or mixed parentage. Bandouq means shrewd.@FullTiltonic @holland_tom Permalink 5:57 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In Arabic Med is Ba7r Er- Rum so: Rumi= Mediterranean Christian Franji= Northern European Sqalibi= Slav Farisi= Persian @holland_tom Permalink 5:35 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Coalition is *also* killing civilians in Syria. Why don’t we call Hollande a butcher? Because no Qatari PR firm? Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Delenda Monsanto Permalink 4:14 PM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Agamemnon entering battle in state of madness. In the Iliad, both sides, Hector & Achilles are Permalink 1:19 PM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb And here the wrath of Recep, not counting the death penalty   Permalink 10:07 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb To listen to the Wrath of Achilles son of Peleus against Agammemnon son of Atrides in Attic Greek   Permalink 9:59 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Three thousand years ago, in the same location, the wrath of Achilleos … Μῆνιν ἄειδε, θεά, Πηληιάδεω Ἀχιλῆος Permalink 9:56 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Unsure: Some are ethnically Greek, most are mixed Phoenician-Greek-Ghassanids; same blood as Cypriots   @tri_moreta Permalink 8:40 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb [Silver rule/Ethics] I am a minority (Greek Orthdx) & as such I don’t support Erdogan. If I were Sunni, would I support him? I can’t answer. Permalink 7:49 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The war agnst ISIS showed that an airforce is almost only useful against enemy with an airforce. Even less for coups. #Turkey @yaneerbaryam Permalink 6:41 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A probability question (for those into probability)   Permalink 6:31 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb It takes a diamond to cut a diamond @EmanuelDerman @carmi797 Permalink 6:07 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Italiano du jour: “chiodo schiaccia chiodo” @EmanuelDerman Permalink 5:05 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@RachelsNews All hands on deck ! please sign and RT   Permalink 7:58 PM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Policy pple @dandrezner et al. don’t realize “BS” isn’t expression of disagreement, but contempt, as w/astrologists.   Permalink 3:22 PM – 18 Jul 2016

@TalebBot We tend to define “rude” less by the words used (what is said) than by the status of the recipient (to whom it is addressed). Permalink 2:33 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Working with the nastiest of all probability distributions: Pearson family IV. Science is never Permalink 11:52 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No, people are sensitive when they feel an ever so slight loss of privilege because of ethnicity, as in Leb/Syria. @LudWitt @joshua_landis Permalink 11:27 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For those interested in knowing why I am allergic to pol science BS entailing Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb These are NOT generalizations. Disproportional power brings instability. Kapish? Only decentralization works. @joshua_landis @LudWitt Permalink 11:12 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Cycle: IRAQ: Sunni opprss Shias=>2004,Shias oprss Sunnis=>ISIS SYRIA: Sunni oprss Alawis=>Alws oprss Sunnis=>war.   Permalink 10:48 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Silver rule: I ask myself: if I were Sunni, what would make me a Salafi? 1) humiliation 2) intrusion 3) patronizing IYI. All these soluble. Permalink 8:42 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb That is not repentance. If Drezner were repentant, he would not be spewing geopolitical BS w/o #SITG. Kapish? @EmilArchambault @dandrezner Permalink 8:11 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb BS vendor Dan Drezner @dandrezner promoted Iraq war & still unrepentant. To protect society (#SITG) such pple shd Permalink 7:47 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The principle لك دينك و لي ديني   Permalink 7:04 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 3) Hence proposed local autonomy for Islamists to be as Islamists as they want *in* their neighborhood, decentralization; they shd Amishify Permalink 6:19 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2) My impression talking to Islamists is that feel misunderstood by IYI bureaucrats, want to be left autonomous. Brcrts,talk to them. #SITG Permalink 6:11 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 1) When ISIS was still occupying parts of Tripoli, spent a day (hiding my accent) there, talking to Permalink 6:09 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb One thing about Erdogan: those who like him *love* him. Like Brexiters, Islamists are those tired of the 100y patronizing secular IYI class Permalink 5:35 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Sultan played the situation like a violin Turkey government seemed to have list of arrests prepared   via @Reuters Permalink 5:27 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb When “short” treasuries, I had MY money on the line.Daniel Drezner the sickening man called Iraq war &paid no price for the dead @dandrezner Permalink 4:49 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@bee_starship You rock for RT this @rob_swire my family is Iraqi Shia and we cop so much crap. Know the difference people ️   Permalink 3:50 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For the amnesiacs: in 1826 Mahmud II incited the Janissaries to revolt, to terminate them (execute & imprison them) Permalink 6:51 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Drezner boy: not possible to explain to bullshit vendors what is and what is not bullshit, what’s rigorous &what’s crap. Kapish? @dandrezner Permalink 3:06 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The only other explanation is that the F16 pilots were economists/social scientists, all show no go.   Permalink 12:03 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This is very, very strange: 2 rebel F16s had a lock on Erdogan’s plane but didn’t fire! Yet they bombed Parliament.   Permalink 11:50 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Which (almost) ends a month-long tweet storm for the n-summed lognormal! It works! Permalink 8:09 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Respect! @Pete_Spence Permalink 7:56 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb كان لازم سعيد عقل يسميا “اللغة الشامية” مش بس اللبنانية و يتعلم السريايا   Permalink 7:30 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Corrected1 Life is trial and error. Permalink 6:58 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Warning: there may be a problem in conversion table t2: “n” shd be inside not outside moments. Permalink 6:37 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Student T is much much more civilized than the Lognormal Permalink 6:32 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Paper: “preasymptotics of sums of random variables in the subexponential class”, first presented at @DrCirillo’s conference @John1ODea Permalink 6:15 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Et voila! The Lognormal is very very stubborn but the solution was simple: here it gave-in thanks to Permalink 6:11 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Sums of “weird” r. variables that converge slowly [LogNormal] can be ONLY be treated preasymptotically as Pearson Permalink 5:58 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A remark: Jay Ulfedler’s @dtchimp “mathematical model” to predict exudes, smells, reeks, of bullshit.   Permalink 5:32 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Leibnitz who (co)invented calculus knew only basic math bef. age of 26. Permalink 4:32 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The weird thing about #Turkey: pro-democracy pple worldwide against coup; all Salafis pro-Isis pro-Jihad worldwide also cheering. NonKapish! Permalink 4:06 PM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Chap 1: In a dialogue with Fat Tony, he asks me: – Why did you kill me? – Just business, your FatToniness. Only bizness, nothing personal. Permalink 1:28 PM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb They want to hide something. Or they look like they are hiding something. And insult the intelligence of the public   Permalink 11:58 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Yesterday tried to work on SkinInTheGame. But Nice in the AM 28 Pages in PM Turkey in Eve. Only wrote chapter title: “Republic of Tawk”. Permalink 10:55 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The great sucker problem: blame the people in Soviet Russia for not being up to par, do not blame the regime.   Permalink 8:08 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The moral: When doing a coup in 2016 anywhere on the planet, fughedaboud local TV, occupy Twitter and Facebook headquarters in San Francisco Permalink 7:47 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb These EU empty suits just tawk. Words words words they never had a real job & think their job is a real job.   Permalink 5:28 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@TalebBot Most mistakes get worse when you try to correct them. Permalink 8:33 PM – 14 Jul 2016

@TalebBot The main reason to go to school is to learn *how not* to think like a professor. Permalink 8:33 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@TalebBot It is a very powerful manipulation to let others win the small battles. Permalink 2:33 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Articles with words but no information have sentences s.a.”but whoever comes out on top, democracy is sure to lose”   Permalink 6:31 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Spreading this warning. This is common with the Syrian war.   Permalink 4:23 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@karimbitar The correct Lenin quote is: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”   Permalink 1:45 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb On my list of things to crumble: + Saudi Barbaria [STARTED] + Bureaucristan/econ “elites” IYIs [STARTED] + Monsanto   Permalink 12:23 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb My impression reading the #28pages is that had the info been public, we would have heard calls to invade Saudi Barbaria instead of Iraq. Permalink 11:44 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How about those who love *either* logic or *both* mathematics *and* deadlifting?   Permalink 11:00 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I deleted the tweet about Paris torture because the info was denied by the “Procureur General.”(chief prosecutor) Permalink 10:49 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How PsychoBS Hedgehog-fox fails: @Ptetlock “Pilot of the plane is hedgehog he is too focused on preventing crash”.   Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb People don’t know what they are talking about when they say “religion” Permalink 6:31 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The danger of Salafism is in its treatment of religion as LAW & political system. Violence is the result.   Permalink 6:24 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Designation “Islam” is absurd; there are 3 religions. -Shia -Sunni secular, Ottoman, Sufi, urban… -Salafi/Wahabi (ISIS, Saudi Barbaria) Permalink 6:13 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb As predicted from minority rule: GMOs going extinct, sales contracting. Paying Farmers to Go Organic In   Permalink 6:05 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Problem is religions are not banned. If Nazism is banned, Salafism/Wahabism must be banned. Shut down Saudi Arabia.   Permalink 5:48 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Anyone proGMOs on “scientific” grounds is 50y behind,ignorant of complexity, or just stupid Permalink 5:43 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@Konstant_V @nntaleb next time anyone asks why #Nice happened I will show him this:   Permalink 5:36 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Salafi Mosques are the root. Since 2001 the idiotic West let Saudi “allies” keep spreading Salafism. Destroy Riad.   Permalink 4:56 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Revisiting Popper’s (Goedel’s) paradox: Why Salafis should be confined just for being Salafis. Delenda Saudi Permalink 4:50 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Salafi is Salafi is Salafi, no nuance. Salafi is inherently violent terrorism. Those who promote Salafism are guilty   Permalink 4:20 AM – 15 Jul 2016

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