Tag Archives: @FiveThirtyEight

Propagandists, Justin Wolfers, FiveThirtyEight, Michiko Kakutani, Nocera, Aleppo, Krugman | Twitter

@nntaleb The work by scientific entertainer Steven Pinker on violence.https://twitter.com/peterfranklin_/status/796448677380452357   Permalink 12:33 PM – 9 Nov 2016

@mdvex @orestistsinalis @nntaleb in my officepic.twitter.com/pPwsRMcoxH Permalink 9:23 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb There is no “animosity” with Harris. I just consider him an intellectual fraud. @GuzziNba @SamHarrisOrg Permalink 9:21 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I know I saw his papers on forecasting and noticed mathematical probability was not … for him. @HenryMyers7 @JustinWolfers Permalink 8:57 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@themightypuck Something @nntaleb pointed out a year ago.https://twitter.com/conor64/status/796265774440542208   Permalink 8:54 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb That’s @JustinWolfers who should stop teaching economics, just drive an uber outside populated areas.https://twitter.com/carney/status/796390341997920256   Permalink 8:47 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@GuruAnaerobic “Fuck You” vs bought Hilary.pic.twitter.com/fkxXOhWKA5 Permalink 8:06 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The Middle East Institute @MiddleEastInst is funded by the Wahabis. Lister should mention it in every utterance @nadeemhaque @Charles_Lister Permalink 7:48 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Note that people like @Charles_Lister are paid by foreign governments/terrorist sponsors to spread their agendas. Permalink 7:39 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Should we classify propagandists like @Charles_Lister who advocate the interests of al Qaeda/Wahabis as terrorists? Permalink 7:36 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@yaobviously @nntaleb for a long while I thought you overstated your case against intellectuals. I was wrong. Permalink 6:52 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The reason I expected a Trump election would not affect the market is from noticing that ignorant IYI @JustinWolfers made Tump=lower SP. Permalink 6:49 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb How do you forecast an election (cluelessness of @FiveThirtyEight ) PRELIM DRAFT https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/binary%20forecasting%20538.nb.pdf  pic.twitter.com/MdKI0ecrfZ Permalink 6:21 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@EHSANI22 Clearly Americans value a job more than buying a cheap pack of 6 T.shirts made in Bangladesh for $6.99. Kudos to @nntaleb Permalink 4:35 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I forgot the big losers: the neocons. We have at least 4-8 years of watching them drive uber cars / taxis in DC. Permalink 10:09 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Who got burried? Saudi Barbaria Goldman Sacks Syrian Jihadis aka “rebels” Academic Economists w/PseudoNobel NYT & other bullshit venues. Permalink 9:59 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@MaxAbrahms What’s the best explanation for why pollsters seem to have failed so badly? To his credit, @nntaleb predicted this orange swan event. Permalink 9:42 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@SadStatueOfLib Just want to point out that @nntaleb has been calling @NateSilver538’s flaws (bullshit) in his models since… hmm, June? Earlier? Permalink 8:36 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Time to laugh at “Intellectuals”.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.x3pmha81c   Permalink 9:25 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb You’ve arrived, Nassim; you’ve arrived.pic.twitter.com/FX8cUQ997E Permalink 3:05 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@ghchammas 4 cousins in amioun lebanon @nntalebpic.twitter.com/ljAxOjYYkk Permalink 10:48 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb An example of forecaster A better than B regardless of finalpic.twitter.com/2zeH1hJ5he Permalink 8:52 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Correction: Solent it turned out is not yet out of business. Not yet. @EmanuelDerman @zzbar @motherboard Permalink 7:23 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb New edition of Procrustes. No more than 4 aphorisms per day. https://www.amazon.com/Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical-Aphorisms/dp/0812982401/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=  pic.twitter.com/FErRAAxzFa Permalink 6:37 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb We got a great vindication w/ Soylent going out of business. Keep neomania out of food.@EmanuelDerman @zzbar @motherboard Permalink 6:20 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Some probability musings from North Lebanon: how to compare forecasters BEFORE final outcome.pic.twitter.com/57ShuNvVVH Permalink 6:02 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Any human being who reads anything from @michikokakutani is at war with reason.https://twitter.com/michikokakutani/status/795752769420492800   Permalink 4:09 PM – 7 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Trump is just a symptom not a disease. Message: establishment is so bad that a random Bronx Zoo animal less harmful.pic.twitter.com/xcZLVKFuPs Permalink 3:35 PM – 7 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine for “this”: hayda, haydi,pl. hol. comes frm Syro-Aramaic: hod, hodo. Now hano/hathe in Turoyo @SahinChrispic.twitter.com/WALhu4nJki Permalink 3:08 PM – 7 Nov 2016

@nntaleb John Gray is the real thing.https://twitter.com/orestistsinalis/status/795655586998325248   Permalink 8:23 AM – 7 Nov 2016

@joshua_landis Syrian rebels think it is OK to use civilians as Human Shields but not when Asad or ISIS do it. All powers are guilty when holding civilianshttps://twitter.com/RevolutionSyria/status/792891242581487616   Permalink 2:47 PM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb “Strength Training is Learning from Tail Events” by @nntalebhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d?source=twitterShare-f138bf5466fe-1478475236   Permalink 3:34 PM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nocera, you’re a BS vendor. But everything you do to cover-up your BS vending entails more BS-vending. Keep quiet & non nocere, @NoceraNYT Permalink 11:56 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@RiskMinds “Your grandmother’s intuitions about #tailrisk is usually right”. Don’t miss @nntaleb @ #RiskMinds. More here http://spr.ly/60168EODK  pic.twitter.com/BAX0fIHKdv Permalink 8:00 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Version 2 (cleared typos) @CoachRippetoepic.twitter.com/4i9cF0Yj1r Permalink 7:21 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Tail risk management & weightlifting? Draft of the forward for a book published by @CoachRippetoe,for comments.pic.twitter.com/XXCtXSCwRO Permalink 6:58 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Syriac is Eastern Aramaic (Western Aramaic ~ Jerusalem/Damascus/Maaloula, Western Syriac ~ Nineveh, Eastern Syriac ~ Babylon) @rennyabraham Permalink 6:06 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du Jour: “kursh”, slang for “belly” in Levantine, is from Accadian: Gilgamesh, Tablet 10, 222.pic.twitter.com/UOOy0K26De Permalink 5:12 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Yes, “Boy” as a sign of disrespect. You have a problem with displaying my intellectual (& personal) disrespect for you? @NoceraNYT Permalink 2:46 PM – 5 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nocera boy, @NoceraNYT, let me debate you on “Aleppo” to show you what “Ignorance” is. You can even use Aramaic, W. Syriac or Syrian Arabic. Permalink 8:35 AM – 5 Nov 2016

@DrJillStein Saudi Arabia: -top Clinton Foundation donor -lobbies US via Podesta group -got record arms deals from Obama/Clinton -top terrorism sponsor Permalink 12:26 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb A neat way to transform a Wiener process (\-infty,infty) to election probabilities [0,1].pic.twitter.com/zKzhN6DtZv Permalink 7:57 AM – 5 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nocera, next time you attend my lecture, remind me to teach you “straw man argument” & intel. dishonesty. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man   @NoceraNYT Permalink 7:15 AM – 5 Nov 2016

@lourou1981 @nntaleb the linguistic map of Syria looks strikingly similar to the sphere of control of diff factions in Syria today. Sheer coincidence? Permalink 5:36 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb (actually during the crisis) Permalink 3:20 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb With Mandelbrot right before the crisis. Alas, weightlifting makes one gain weight.https://twitter.com/HarriusHaller/status/794662544334057472   Permalink 3:19 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb In other words every person should vote according to way he or she expects or prefers others to vote. Be uncompromising with virtue ! Permalink 12:48 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb What makes a good election forecaster? Not the Brier metric 538 is a terrible forecaster regardless of final outcomepic.twitter.com/IF39qauxtP Permalink 11:34 AM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) If Nocera were better read he would have suspected there is such a thing as deontic ethics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deontological_ethics   @NoceraNYT Permalink 6:06 AM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Better NOT know where Aleppo is than BS about it with half knowledge a la Joe Nocera. IYI Joe Nocera. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   @NoceraNYT Permalink 5:26 AM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Dectecting another slip: I said “preferences”. I most probably meant “principles”. Permalink 1:28 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Why my ethics dictate that I vote for the 3rd party regardless of oddshttp://cnb.cx/2eZeyPC   Permalink 1:18 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Even if #GMOs will “feed the world”, you need to look at risks of ruin. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  https://twitter.com/NonGMOProject/status/794262188349210624   Permalink 12:55 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Spent too much time cleaning the data on Mongolian invasions. Permalink 12:32 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Typo on CNBC: Said 1308 then corrected 1208 and said Attila for Genghis. Permalink 12:12 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Civis romanus sum @BlackWhiteKnite Permalink 8:10 PM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Unlike in static forecasting, the best dynamic forecaster (time) is he who every period forecasts HIS OWN next forecast best. (to continue) Permalink 7:48 PM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You mean one of these deranged fellows ? @EconMBA @egfalken @IllimitableMan http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   Permalink 2:36 PM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Mr Krugman, for economists, to “invoke authority”, well … not a good idea, to put it mildly.https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/793813730454888449   Permalink 7:03 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Scam alert: @Fidelity offers a credit card via outside Co, designed to charge late fees+ interest to unsuspecting, similar to Wells Fargo. Permalink 6:13 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine du Jour: Ammianus Marcellinus was another Syro-Phoenician Greek. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammianus_Marcellinus#cite_note-Britannica-1   Permalink 5:25 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) Today someone w/economics degree has a higher chance of sleeping with Kim Kardashian than getting a job as a trader. Finance = STEM Permalink 5:08 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Economics is a fake discipline; attempts to improve it (s.a.”behavioral”,”evo”) made it worse! Finance moved to mathematics, accounting,etc. Permalink 5:04 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Psychologists are way behind probability/complexity theory in their “normative” definition of rationality.https://twitter.com/SanguineEmpiric/status/793646879485538304   Permalink 4:44 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Quite insulting to probability when someone “estimates” noise with precision: 24.8%, not 25 or 24. #cluelesshttps://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/793298019693146113   Permalink 1:29 PM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) If you understand nothing about the problem (like DC pundits) then it becomes Iran vs Saudi Arabia, US vs Russia, Mars vs Saturn. Permalink 7:25 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Ignorant pundit (IYIs) see everything w/the magnified prism of geopolitics, not local people trying to make things work. #Lebanon elections Permalink 7:15 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb … with HUGE (yuge) practical consequences on model error. @CutTheKnotMath @neilchrisspic.twitter.com/3ezlq1QaSJ Permalink 6:02 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb V. counterintuitive useful mathematical result:How higher dimensional areas get SMALLER. @CutTheKnotMath @neilchrisspic.twitter.com/uqGuHzptXx Permalink 5:57 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb (what they say about Oxford) Permalink 5:50 PM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb What they call engineering is really physics; what they call physics is math, what they call math nobody knows what it is. @PeterVeep Permalink 5:41 PM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The conflict: Engineers, applied-probabilists, physicists think in terms of applications; mathematicians view math as art. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 12:18 PM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb That poor @NateSilver538 still doesn’t get that the possibility of unexpected ↑ variance & moves probabilities→ 50%https://twitter.com/Thesokorus/status/793125893715685377   Permalink 9:34 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb A relevant lesson from Podesta/Huma: bureaucrats & empty suits spend their time in multiplicative/metastatic low information emailing. Permalink 8:24 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Typo. Range for thega [0, \pi] not [0, 2 \pi ]. Varphi in [ 0, 2 pi] Permalink 8:00 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb ἀπὸ μηχανῆς θεός Permalink 7:50 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Fooled by Correlations (cont), a geometric tutorial. Hard to visualize in dimensions >3.pic.twitter.com/6cmW6Krx2r Permalink 7:22 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb La trahison des clercs! The disgusting pseudoleft support for: Saudi Barbaria/Islamofascism Shillary Megacorps https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/trahison_des_clercs   Permalink 6:13 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb You never hear the pseudo-left & neocons say “butcher of Yemen”. Nor alQaeda in Aleppo ever called “butchers”.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/793063579599577088   Permalink 6:08 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb (From a few months ago) Permalink 9:12 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb My election modelhttps://twitter.com/zzbar/status/792926636098330624   Permalink 8:47 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The amount of short tails in the system in order to generate returns for retirees is mindbogggggling.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/792890807699247104   Permalink 6:09 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@MaxAbrahms Gary Kasparov is on CNN talking about how Russia wants Trump to win. Who will CNN have talk about how Saudi Arabia wants Hillary to win? Permalink 4:55 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Virtue is what you do when nobody is looking. The rest is marketing. #TheBedofProcrustes (but I can’t remember for sure) Permalink 1:51 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb GMOs advocacy reveals charlatanism, proposing solutions w/unseen side effects; scientism for profit. @philipbstarkpic.twitter.com/vL8Qcw8U7m Permalink 1:24 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Being nice counts the most when you are nice to people ignored by others. Permalink 1:21 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@ggreenwald The savage Saudi/US/UK war on Yemen lacks all the typical propaganda options- we’re bombing for freedom, Bad Dictator, etc- so it’s ignored. Permalink 6:34 AM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Journos & soc. “scientists” fail to detect the difference betw science and scientism.https://twitter.com/dmandl/status/792721099662307328   Permalink 6:35 AM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Ironically the computer allows us to do more abstract math as it does the nitty gritty sh*t work & frees us to see deeper @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 5:59 AM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb We should put ellipticality in our book as higher D fat tails while lower D thin tailed @DrCirillo @financequantpic.twitter.com/JnF0CpvbmS Permalink 5:23 AM – 30 Oct 2016

Saudi Barbaria, Sunstein, B Quant Seminar, Erdogan, Salafism, FiveThirtyEight, Pareto 80/20 | Twitter

Papers/articles by NNT  linked to in this tweet batch.
Where You Cannot Generalize from Knowledge of Parts (continuation of the Minority Rule)Stochastic Tail Exponent For Asymmetric Power Laws (pdf)

@nntaleb .@Nvania You are welcome to go follow and lecture someone else. There are a lot of journos on twitter. Permalink 3:27 PM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Coordinator for the defamation of Seralini, Henry I Miller,in charge of smearing me.4 articles. F**you money workshttps://twitter.com/madgeaustralia/status/774889523603845120   Permalink 2:42 PM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The right way to look at probability: how many 70 yo people w/heat strokes in % in East Coast today?https://twitter.com/pauld1981/status/775080526528978945   Permalink 2:19 PM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb 2/ The other piece of evidence is that the bodyguards who caught Hillary Monsanto-AlSaud did not deadlift, or if they did, < 180 combined. Permalink 2:17 PM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The 3-5 daily prayers are Semitic: Judaism, Islam & early Christianity. Sa7ar both Hebrew 7 Arabic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_prayer   @vyoman @trscbrs Permalink 2:10 PM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb This additional “nonhealth event” for Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison makes the probability that “nothing is wrong” less than 1/10,000. Finito. Permalink 2:06 PM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Thank you, Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/HaraldDoornbos/status/774876068306092032   Permalink 3:27 AM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb “Empirical” analyses = naive interpolation, Pinker-style, exactly what is not empirical.https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/774912361954209793   Permalink 3:24 AM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Just published “Where You Cannot Generalize from Knowledge of Parts (continuation of the Minority Rule)”https://medium.com/@nntaleb/where-you-cannot-generalize-from-knowledge-of-parts-continuation-to-the-minority-rule-ce96ca3c5739#.x8w2t93wk   Permalink 2:52 AM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Cialdini put me off w “scientific” abt psychology results to dress up #marketing. Psych not solid. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   @ScottAdamsSays Permalink 1:45 AM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Lebanon: Discrimination against veils (later denied which in Lebanese means “confirmed”).pic.twitter.com/b8rLtTYvio Permalink 1:33 AM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Serendipitous Theology du Jour: the Zoroastrians had 101 names for Ahura Mazda, the Arabs 99 names of God. Similar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/101_Names_of_God   Permalink 3:48 PM – 10 Sep 2016

@nntaleb We have to do something about Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/hkx07/status/774735492415823872   Permalink 3:26 PM – 10 Sep 2016

@zerohedge The War Economy: CNN’s Wolf Blitzer Warns About Job Loss If US Stops Arming Saudi Arabiahttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-09/war-economy-cnns-wolf-blitzer-warns-about-job-loss-if-us-stops-arming-saudi-arabia   Permalink 5:01 PM – 9 Sep 2016

@leenur @nntaleb come to visit #Kazan. Our Islam allows churches next to mosques.pic.twitter.com/op7jXwIaB1 Permalink 1:27 PM – 9 Sep 2016

@nntaleb This article explains AntiFragility & problem of Syria http://www.michigansthumb.com/news/article/Defeating-terrorism-through-design-Think-souks-9211921.php   @gjbejjani @EHSANI22 Permalink 6:22 AM – 9 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Twitter, Did the agreement to streamline Russian visas for US citizens get stalled? Permalink 5:38 AM – 9 Sep 2016

@nntaleb On my way to Leiden (via Leb) to present 3 papers on tails at @DrCirillo ‘s conference on extremes. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.02369.pdf   Permalink 6:58 PM – 8 Sep 2016

@nntaleb IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiots) treat rest of population as idiots needing their supervision, upset when revealed as idiots! @swensn @PTetlock Permalink 10:31 AM – 7 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Levantine du jour: duplication, marriage, husb JawZe (from Aramaic) not Zawje (Arabic) from ‘Gawz =nut, duplication.pic.twitter.com/35ATW63srg Permalink 6:38 AM – 7 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Easy to understand the Putin-Erdogan connection when one is 1) Orthodox, 2) have Ottoman citizens ancestors (incl grandparents) for 439 y. Permalink 5:53 PM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Up until around Lepanto the Ottoman Empire was a weak continuation of the Byzantine/Eastern Roman Empire. Agree?https://twitter.com/peterfrankopan/status/773290424765124609   Permalink 5:25 PM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb You ned to realize that municipal decentralization is compatible with centralized military: Switzerland, USA,Roman/Ottoman Empires@EHSANI22 Permalink 3:42 PM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Should I follow instructions (oranges) or treat it as some legal disclaimer?pic.twitter.com/b67jVvig6Y Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Thanks, made the statement more precise: Infinity Shminfinity @canpeyanpic.twitter.com/Fl5Hgf5Hty Permalink 11:17 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb While I gladly take corrections on dentistry by dentists, out of disrespect, I pay no attention to psychologists. Kapish? @MurphPsych Permalink 11:05 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Sunstein is a BS vendor & psychologists too cluless to tell. Sadder fact to tell Tetlock to lay low on twitter. @Pseudoplotinus @PTetlock Permalink 10:20 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb My 2 talks. One more technical, one more central for life: (debunking idiots like Sunstein) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BloombergQuantSeminar1.pdf   https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BloombergQuantSeminar2.pdf   Permalink 8:12 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb “Reductionist” often used by people (IYI) incapable by separating the necessary from the reduced. @SimaDiab @EHSANI22 Permalink 6:43 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Practicing Calabrez for 23 years.pic.twitter.com/W0spH32Wst Permalink 6:33 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Syria’s old problem has been Baathist centralization (#Antifragile). Simple re-municipalization removes the pressure. @SimaDiab @EHSANI22 Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb My first talk today at the B Quant Seminar: “There is no such thing as infinity in the Real World”. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BloombergQuantSeminar1.pdf   Permalink 4:36 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The presidential debate will be …. interestinghttps://twitter.com/spectreforever/status/772963084906270720   Permalink 7:12 PM – 5 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Erdogan has the dream of every boss: loved by a majority, feared by the unanimity. Permalink 10:20 AM – 5 Sep 2016

@nntaleb What strikes me abt academics is that they keep comparing themselves to others. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154116285273375  pic.twitter.com/zj45h9FJ95 Permalink 6:45 AM – 5 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The reality is that, while “analysts” & tawkingheads are barking, Erdogan is extremely popular in Turkey. So far.https://twitter.com/thevocaleurope/status/771632208171798529   Permalink 11:40 AM – 4 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Quants are invited to my Tuesday talk “Mathematical Foundations of Precaution”, BBG, with reception (wine). https://go.bloomberg.com/promo/invite/bloomberg-quant-seminar-series/   Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I am not writing Italian, but 1920s Kalabrez (Galabrez), a language some people call Calabrese, & Cavour assumed was Arabic. @jacopogio Permalink 11:47 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb 2) and we can observe the volatility much more than the underlying. @rroyji @FiveThirtyEight Permalink 11:32 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb For an option volatility often matters much, much more than underlying. @rroyji @FiveThirtyEight Permalink 11:26 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Posted paper on SSRN http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2834165   Permalink 11:17 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Simply an option has “time value” function of vol. For a binary, TV pushes it away from 1 or 0, closer to .5 Kapish?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/771372006914846720   Permalink 11:00 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Who are you trying to fool? Saudi Barbaria recently beheaded a Shiite cleric. @luhidan7777 @Leb12er Permalink 7:05 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Western Govs realize A) Salafis are bad & B)Saudi Barbaria is Salafi; but these idiots proved unable to connect A&B.https://twitter.com/Defenestrator13/status/772065953311883264   Permalink 6:43 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb This is Goooooooold. The prayer in Mecca to eradicate Shiites, Christians, and Jews. Who is Saudi Barbaria fooling?https://twitter.com/Leb12er/status/771916411388235776   Permalink 6:20 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb There was never many Christians in “Middle East”, almost only in Near-East (Eastern Med) and Northern Mesopotamia.https://twitter.com/mMeyer62/status/772058063733792768   Permalink 6:16 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Talmud Bavli in… Arabic 20- volume translation.pic.twitter.com/Rgsu7h1MjE Permalink 5:01 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Damascenes (and other Urban Syrians) look Greek.https://twitter.com/RanaHarbi/status/767459238914453505   Permalink 2:08 PM – 2 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The odometer was broken, so he refrained from riding his bicycle. His cycling didn’t count towards his “goal”. “Modernized” systems metrify. Permalink 4:45 AM – 2 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Actually, just realized, *pirated* version in Italian! Permalink 4:41 AM – 2 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Minority Rule in Italiano I più intolleranti vincono sempre: la dittatura della minoranzahttps://it.insider.pro/opinion/2016-08-29/the_most_intolerant_wins-_the_dictatorship_of_the_small_minority_part_i_9154/   Permalink 4:40 AM – 2 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The ratio male/female hurricanes is monstrously random, Maestro Marco, @MAvellaneda55pic.twitter.com/SSviVczJO3 Permalink 6:32 PM – 1 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Mediocristan, sub-Mediocristan because bounded. @nalinmoniz @FiveThirtyEight Permalink 6:23 PM – 1 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Maestro Marco @MAvellaneda55 This is BS, Pinker Style,(i.e. BS a la @sapinker). Affaire close.pic.twitter.com/HGi99138pk Permalink 6:15 PM – 1 Sep 2016

@MaxAbrahms Al Qaeda Is Gaining Strength in Syria http://sports.yahoo.com/news/al-qaeda-gaining-strength-syria-213320031.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw   I’ve predicted this outcome from Day 1 because a semblance of moderation pays. Permalink 5:06 PM – 1 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Point is “how common is it to have both?” in % of 2nd condition not just if possible.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/771426553725087748   Permalink 12:21 PM – 1 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Medical Quandaries: Can one have both low resting heart beat & hypertension low RHB & CVD? low RHB & insulin resist L RHB & metabolic s? Permalink 12:16 PM – 1 Sep 2016

@nntaleb How to price an election [DRAFT]; why @FiveThirtyEight should engage in some other business than prediction.pic.twitter.com/QfHYqE0DR5 Permalink 8:39 AM – 1 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Whaaaaaaat? Donald Trump went to Mexico?https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/771146302134423552   Permalink 5:44 PM – 31 Aug 2016

@GhassanDahhan Sometimes I miss the good old days when neo-conservative think tanks were called ‘neo-conservative think tanks’ instead of ‘non-partisan’. Permalink 12:52 PM – 31 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Our GMO discussion is here (updated) http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 6:04 AM – 31 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Llewelyn, @Charles_Lister is a fraud. @llewelyn_morgan Permalink 5:49 AM – 31 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Went from: IYIs (Intellectuals Yet Idiots) support GMOs to Those who support GMOs are IYIs. Why? IYIs can’t tell scientism from science. Permalink 5:47 AM – 31 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Christians in Syria. Those Shillary wants to ethnically cleanse for the benefit of Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/770270385254363138   Permalink 4:41 AM – 31 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Lindy effecthttps://twitter.com/peterfrankopan/status/770920349944938496   Permalink 4:37 AM – 31 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 6:30 but never before.pic.twitter.com/2evbvTGO5B Permalink 3:43 PM – 30 Aug 2016

@RonPaulInstitut The Real US Syria Scandal: Supporting Sectarian War http://bit.ly/2c9eLMO   Permalink 12:38 PM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Redoing: What fits best for an IYI? Permalink 12:40 PM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Worth learning Arabic just to read comment by Wahabis upset w/Putin’s conference promoting tolerant CentAsian/Ottoman Sunnism #مؤتمر_الشيشان Permalink 11:35 AM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb What fits best for an IYI? Permalink 11:20 AM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The IYI (intellectual yet idiot) class are like English or psych majors arguing with speaker in advanced mathematics seminar. #Notevenwrong Permalink 7:08 AM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Bingo! @han0z @zerohedge Here is the derivation:pic.twitter.com/MQ9KH0tZLM Permalink 6:15 AM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Just published thanks to comments by Maestro @MAvellaneda55 “Stochastic Tail Exponent For Asymmetric Power Laws”https://www.academia.edu/28120847/Stochastic_Tail_Exponent_For_Asymmetric_Power_Laws?s=t   Permalink 5:56 AM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb ANNONCE: Je cherche a publier mon article sur la dictature des minorités en France. Merci d’avance.https://medium.com/@nntaled/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.nppetsqzg   Permalink 3:31 AM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Half of America owns 1% of America’s wealth => Pareto 80/20 (same inequality Pareto found in land ownership in Italy late 19th C) @zerohedge Permalink 7:30 PM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Quiz du jour: What is the tail exponent of the distribution, assuming it is power law (it is)?https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/770418048738164736   Permalink 5:52 PM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If one 1) is a libertarian & 2) Believes SHillary is ill Then shouldn’t one voting for someone incapacitated?https://twitter.com/segal_scott/status/770413381350064128   Permalink 5:25 PM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Obvious thing: to remove Salafis from Sunnism & revert to 1950s tolerant Sunnism. With #مؤتمر_الشيشان that’s what Putin is doing! Brilliant! Permalink 5:16 PM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Working with @DrCirillo on stats of violence we discovered media reports to be unreliable& pple unaware of it.https://twitter.com/alitahmizian/status/770268937024135168   Permalink 3:16 PM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb It is *precisely* because companies fit products to weirdest buyers that we have the rule. https://medium.com/@nntaled/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.fzsnj85i4  https://twitter.com/grumpyinnovator/status/770329758429220864   Permalink 1:16 PM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Why you can never trust employees to make the ethical decisions.https://medium.com/@nntaled/how-to-legally-own-another-person-4145a1802bf6#.7ytrbrb2o   Permalink 8:19 AM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Is it me or … nobody is noticing that the movement for nonSalafi Sunnism #مؤتمر_الشيشان is happening in… Russia! @aboabid @trscbrs Permalink 6:35 AM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 5/ Further difference betw academia and real life: Others will envy you for your knowledge less than they would for your credentials. Permalink 6:32 AM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb So if Ashaari is the “real” Sunni Islam, we go back to the Ottoman brand, much much more tolerant @aboabid @trscbrs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maturidi   Permalink 5:54 AM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Torn My focus shoud be for 2017 + Finishing Skin in the Game or + Deadlifting 440 lbs (slowed by 2 lifting injuries) Permalink 1:47 PM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Salafism Isn’t Really a Religion https://committingsociology.com/2016/08/28/salafism-isnt-really-a-religion/   via @CommittingSociology Permalink 12:37 PM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Bethlehem was in Judea the idea of linking Jesus to Nazareth (INRI on the cross) was to emphasize his non Judean side @MrNathanRollins Permalink 11:23 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 4/ Tweets triggered by draft of bio of math/trader Ed Thorp who said his most difficult job ever was head of math department at UC Irvine. Permalink 8:03 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@naval Politics, academia and social status are all zero-sum games. Positive-sum games create positive people.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/769867793214865408   Permalink 7:32 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Eastern Med was part of Rome as world was Med/nonMed and separation Europe came later post Islamhttps://twitter.com/_crackerfactory/status/769898374464151552   Permalink 7:10 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I tend to block pple who fail to get “~” (approx) means “not always true” and corrupt the conversation on twitter.https://twitter.com/guinerez/status/769892028004130816   Permalink 7:00 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 3/ The probability of getting a “tenure track” position for a new PhD has been getting closer & closer to 0. Permalink 6:01 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ You can tell people who come from countries w/rent seeking; they think that business is zero-sum: wealth is money taken from others. Permalink 5:23 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Academia is ~ zero-sum: every position/honor/promotion/rank/reward is taken from someone else. Business on the other hand creates business. Permalink 5:02 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@QuintusCurtius Clinton ally Saudi Arabia deports 27 Lebanese Christians just for owning books. Is western media reporting this? No https://twitter.com/Nour_Samaha/status/769474275367645185   Permalink 4:17 PM – 27 Aug 2016

@seanrateck1 @beachvetlbc @cecilbadlands @wizardQi @RyEichler @YouTube @NYDailyNewspic.twitter.com/WbEcrRcy9G Permalink 12:46 PM – 27 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Improved on my paper on power laws thanks to the great maestro @MAvellaneda55pic.twitter.com/GSOR3CpgUx Permalink 1:10 PM – 27 Aug 2016

@jelo1317 The #GMO debate. One student’s experience of pro-GMO #Propaganda @Cornell University http://www.thelibertybeacon.com/gmo-debate-one-students-experience-pro-gmo-propaganda-cornell-university/   @GMOWTFpic.twitter.com/yNHmZJON5L Permalink 12:51 PM – 23 Aug 2016

@FiveThirtyEight, Salafis Jihadists, Amioun, Piketty, Averroes, Kadisha Valley, The Right | Twitter

@nntaleb Bingo! Option traders get it! When probabilities are stochastic, they become ~.50. And they don’t move fast!https://twitter.com/VlanciPictures/status/762036480466415617   Permalink 2:25 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 3) More technically, when the variance of the probability is v. high it converges to 50%. Kapish? (metaprobability). Permalink 2:13 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ So @FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally *clueless* about probability yet make a business in it. Permalink 2:11 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 1/@FiveThirtyEight : 55% “probability” for Trump then 20% 10 d later, not realizing their “probability” is too stochastic to be probability. Permalink 2:09 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Cont “This thing we call religion” https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154031983368375  pic.twitter.com/kvFnQKeYdd Permalink 1:29 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (To hide truth is to hide gold) la vérité est cachee au fond du puits Σιγάν την αλήθειαν χρυσόν εστι θάπτεινhttps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/761981751656849408   Permalink 11:57 AM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Bon on recommence: Le grand ne rappetisse pas Le petit n’aggrandit pas Permalink 1:05 AM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Infallible way to catch Salafis Jihadists at a checkpoint: ask them to crack a joke.Salafis, by definition, are devoid of any sense of humor Permalink 11:51 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In French it works well @ArmandDAngour : Le grand ne rappetit pas Le petit n’aggrandit pas Permalink 3:26 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The small will never make you feel great; the great will never make you fee small. ( الزغير ما بكبٌر والكبير ما بزغٌر) Better translation Permalink 3:09 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The small can’t see greatness; the great doesn’t know smallness. ( الزغير ما بكبٌر والكبير ما بزغٌر)https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/761679663001468929   Permalink 3:02 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Ez z’3ir ma bi kabber w l’kbir ma mi za’3’3er. Permalink 2:45 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb To assume that academic economists are “experts” on anything requires total empirical blindness. @yoramdw @JustinWolfers Permalink 8:28 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (Skin in the Game) Permalink 8:23 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb This IYI (Intellectual yet Idiot) doesn’t realize absence of academic economists is a very positive thing.#realworldhttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/761536433756798976   Permalink 8:22 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A pilgrimage to my great-gr-gr-gr-gr-grandfather’s house in Amiounpic.twitter.com/sD9XZkOuYD Permalink 7:01 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Proper statistical causation: Take a cohort of readers & PREVENT some randomly selected from reading. Kapish? @amsterdamtrader @Silva Permalink 5:36 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Rohan, the NYT idiots (IYI) got it backward. Those who live longer necessarily have a longer functioning intellectual/visual ability @Silva Permalink 5:15 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In distributed environments: Militias >>armies, commandos >>tanks Groups(Hayekian) >>Soviet & farmers >> Monsanto!https://twitter.com/MKM_Abdul/status/761409231304077312   Permalink 3:10 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb As to the Gini, fugedaboudit. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/GINI-1.pdf   @NessimAitKacimi Permalink 3:03 PM – 4 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Piketty more than challenged: in addition his measure of inequality is flawed @NessimAitKacimipic.twitter.com/Kw2yuN09CH Permalink 2:55 PM – 4 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The problem w Mainstream Media: unlike book authors, journos are mostly worried about the opinions of other journos, not those of readers. Permalink 2:20 AM – 4 Aug 2016

@G_Exercitus How can @zerohedge be more professional than MSM? @joshua_landis @MaxAbrahms @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/761079273704665089   Permalink 1:03 AM – 4 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Factdujour: Averroes (IbnRushd) was unpublished in Arabic bef 1859, while 100s of eds in Latin! [The grrrreat Renan]pic.twitter.com/MVyHxN1hXB Permalink 4:37 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI don’t get techné-epistemé: scientist making statements abt practical matters is not like a plumber on plumbing.https://twitter.com/AcademicsSay/status/760969384106029057   Permalink 3:46 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Mala grammatica non vitiat chartam @dottorpax Permalink 3:37 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If I ran for office, I’d avoid public statements that don’t entail personal risks in making them. Permalink 3:04 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Max knows his stuff.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/760850229029539840   Permalink 10:19 AM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Kadisha Valley near Ehden, 19 km from Amioun (and 20 degrees F cooler).pic.twitter.com/i99s0M4PaC Permalink 7:05 AM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb We don’t know what we talk about when we say “Religion”. Salafis (& most atheists) take religion literally.pic.twitter.com/I1ZhUT3ye6 Permalink 8:26 AM – 2 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Indians left to starve in Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/assaadrazzouk/status/760130259119443968   Permalink 10:26 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2) So have some imagination and do not rule out a two-way mess in Europe.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/760139675713634304   Permalink 8:48 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@nntaleb As a child,I never imagined that Sunni girls wd trade miniskirts for hijab & boys would blow themselves up to get on GoogleNews. #BlackSwan Permalink 8:46 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@lukasnaugle “You can’t have 1) voting rights, 2) social media, and 3) patronizing elite at once…” @nntaleb Permalink 5:22 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@nntaleb My prediction, particularly for Europe. Eventually, violence never stays 1-way. (@zerohedge )pic.twitter.com/ELbVMmQrIb Permalink 6:36 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Finally, results for the preasymptotics of semi-fat tailed & fat tailed distributions for @DrCirillo’s conferencepic.twitter.com/b7POA4952o Permalink 4:39 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Enough mass to do a …coup in Germany?https://twitter.com/MilenaRodban/status/759879379220475904   Permalink 3:48 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@joshua_landis As the Saudis Covered Up Abuses in Yemen, America Stood Byhttp://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/saudi-arabia-yemen-russia-syria-foreign-policy-united-nations-blackmail-214124   Permalink 12:58 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Localismhttps://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/759779327428923392   Permalink 12:11 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@ideallyspace @nntalebpic.twitter.com/ISqpg2kgN6 Permalink 3:43 AM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Right wants one $ one vote. The IYI (intellectual yet idiot) Left wants one degree one vote. The rest of us want one person one vote. Permalink 1:46 PM – 30 Jul 2016