Tag Archives: Pareto 80/20

Saudi Barbaria, Sunstein, B Quant Seminar, Erdogan, Salafism, FiveThirtyEight, Pareto 80/20 | Twitter

Papers/articles by NNT  linked to in this tweet batch.
Where You Cannot Generalize from Knowledge of Parts (continuation of the Minority Rule)Stochastic Tail Exponent For Asymmetric Power Laws (pdf)

@nntaleb .@Nvania You are welcome to go follow and lecture someone else. There are a lot of journos on twitter. Permalink 3:27 PM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Coordinator for the defamation of Seralini, Henry I Miller,in charge of smearing me.4 articles. F**you money workshttps://twitter.com/madgeaustralia/status/774889523603845120   Permalink 2:42 PM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The right way to look at probability: how many 70 yo people w/heat strokes in % in East Coast today?https://twitter.com/pauld1981/status/775080526528978945   Permalink 2:19 PM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb 2/ The other piece of evidence is that the bodyguards who caught Hillary Monsanto-AlSaud did not deadlift, or if they did, < 180 combined. Permalink 2:17 PM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The 3-5 daily prayers are Semitic: Judaism, Islam & early Christianity. Sa7ar both Hebrew 7 Arabic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_prayer   @vyoman @trscbrs Permalink 2:10 PM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb This additional “nonhealth event” for Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison makes the probability that “nothing is wrong” less than 1/10,000. Finito. Permalink 2:06 PM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Thank you, Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/HaraldDoornbos/status/774876068306092032   Permalink 3:27 AM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb “Empirical” analyses = naive interpolation, Pinker-style, exactly what is not empirical.https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/774912361954209793   Permalink 3:24 AM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Just published “Where You Cannot Generalize from Knowledge of Parts (continuation of the Minority Rule)”https://medium.com/@nntaleb/where-you-cannot-generalize-from-knowledge-of-parts-continuation-to-the-minority-rule-ce96ca3c5739#.x8w2t93wk   Permalink 2:52 AM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Cialdini put me off w “scientific” abt psychology results to dress up #marketing. Psych not solid. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   @ScottAdamsSays Permalink 1:45 AM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Lebanon: Discrimination against veils (later denied which in Lebanese means “confirmed”).pic.twitter.com/b8rLtTYvio Permalink 1:33 AM – 11 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Serendipitous Theology du Jour: the Zoroastrians had 101 names for Ahura Mazda, the Arabs 99 names of God. Similar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/101_Names_of_God   Permalink 3:48 PM – 10 Sep 2016

@nntaleb We have to do something about Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/hkx07/status/774735492415823872   Permalink 3:26 PM – 10 Sep 2016

@zerohedge The War Economy: CNN’s Wolf Blitzer Warns About Job Loss If US Stops Arming Saudi Arabiahttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-09/war-economy-cnns-wolf-blitzer-warns-about-job-loss-if-us-stops-arming-saudi-arabia   Permalink 5:01 PM – 9 Sep 2016

@leenur @nntaleb come to visit #Kazan. Our Islam allows churches next to mosques.pic.twitter.com/op7jXwIaB1 Permalink 1:27 PM – 9 Sep 2016

@nntaleb This article explains AntiFragility & problem of Syria http://www.michigansthumb.com/news/article/Defeating-terrorism-through-design-Think-souks-9211921.php   @gjbejjani @EHSANI22 Permalink 6:22 AM – 9 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Twitter, Did the agreement to streamline Russian visas for US citizens get stalled? Permalink 5:38 AM – 9 Sep 2016

@nntaleb On my way to Leiden (via Leb) to present 3 papers on tails at @DrCirillo ‘s conference on extremes. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.02369.pdf   Permalink 6:58 PM – 8 Sep 2016

@nntaleb IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiots) treat rest of population as idiots needing their supervision, upset when revealed as idiots! @swensn @PTetlock Permalink 10:31 AM – 7 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Levantine du jour: duplication, marriage, husb JawZe (from Aramaic) not Zawje (Arabic) from ‘Gawz =nut, duplication.pic.twitter.com/35ATW63srg Permalink 6:38 AM – 7 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Easy to understand the Putin-Erdogan connection when one is 1) Orthodox, 2) have Ottoman citizens ancestors (incl grandparents) for 439 y. Permalink 5:53 PM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Up until around Lepanto the Ottoman Empire was a weak continuation of the Byzantine/Eastern Roman Empire. Agree?https://twitter.com/peterfrankopan/status/773290424765124609   Permalink 5:25 PM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb You ned to realize that municipal decentralization is compatible with centralized military: Switzerland, USA,Roman/Ottoman Empires@EHSANI22 Permalink 3:42 PM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Should I follow instructions (oranges) or treat it as some legal disclaimer?pic.twitter.com/b67jVvig6Y Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Thanks, made the statement more precise: Infinity Shminfinity @canpeyanpic.twitter.com/Fl5Hgf5Hty Permalink 11:17 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb While I gladly take corrections on dentistry by dentists, out of disrespect, I pay no attention to psychologists. Kapish? @MurphPsych Permalink 11:05 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Sunstein is a BS vendor & psychologists too cluless to tell. Sadder fact to tell Tetlock to lay low on twitter. @Pseudoplotinus @PTetlock Permalink 10:20 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb My 2 talks. One more technical, one more central for life: (debunking idiots like Sunstein) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BloombergQuantSeminar1.pdf   https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BloombergQuantSeminar2.pdf   Permalink 8:12 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb “Reductionist” often used by people (IYI) incapable by separating the necessary from the reduced. @SimaDiab @EHSANI22 Permalink 6:43 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Practicing Calabrez for 23 years.pic.twitter.com/W0spH32Wst Permalink 6:33 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Syria’s old problem has been Baathist centralization (#Antifragile). Simple re-municipalization removes the pressure. @SimaDiab @EHSANI22 Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb My first talk today at the B Quant Seminar: “There is no such thing as infinity in the Real World”. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BloombergQuantSeminar1.pdf   Permalink 4:36 AM – 6 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The presidential debate will be …. interestinghttps://twitter.com/spectreforever/status/772963084906270720   Permalink 7:12 PM – 5 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Erdogan has the dream of every boss: loved by a majority, feared by the unanimity. Permalink 10:20 AM – 5 Sep 2016

@nntaleb What strikes me abt academics is that they keep comparing themselves to others. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154116285273375  pic.twitter.com/zj45h9FJ95 Permalink 6:45 AM – 5 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The reality is that, while “analysts” & tawkingheads are barking, Erdogan is extremely popular in Turkey. So far.https://twitter.com/thevocaleurope/status/771632208171798529   Permalink 11:40 AM – 4 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Quants are invited to my Tuesday talk “Mathematical Foundations of Precaution”, BBG, with reception (wine). https://go.bloomberg.com/promo/invite/bloomberg-quant-seminar-series/   Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I am not writing Italian, but 1920s Kalabrez (Galabrez), a language some people call Calabrese, & Cavour assumed was Arabic. @jacopogio Permalink 11:47 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb 2) and we can observe the volatility much more than the underlying. @rroyji @FiveThirtyEight Permalink 11:32 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb For an option volatility often matters much, much more than underlying. @rroyji @FiveThirtyEight Permalink 11:26 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Posted paper on SSRN http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2834165   Permalink 11:17 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Simply an option has “time value” function of vol. For a binary, TV pushes it away from 1 or 0, closer to .5 Kapish?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/771372006914846720   Permalink 11:00 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Who are you trying to fool? Saudi Barbaria recently beheaded a Shiite cleric. @luhidan7777 @Leb12er Permalink 7:05 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Western Govs realize A) Salafis are bad & B)Saudi Barbaria is Salafi; but these idiots proved unable to connect A&B.https://twitter.com/Defenestrator13/status/772065953311883264   Permalink 6:43 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb This is Goooooooold. The prayer in Mecca to eradicate Shiites, Christians, and Jews. Who is Saudi Barbaria fooling?https://twitter.com/Leb12er/status/771916411388235776   Permalink 6:20 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb There was never many Christians in “Middle East”, almost only in Near-East (Eastern Med) and Northern Mesopotamia.https://twitter.com/mMeyer62/status/772058063733792768   Permalink 6:16 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Talmud Bavli in… Arabic 20- volume translation.pic.twitter.com/Rgsu7h1MjE Permalink 5:01 AM – 3 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Damascenes (and other Urban Syrians) look Greek.https://twitter.com/RanaHarbi/status/767459238914453505   Permalink 2:08 PM – 2 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The odometer was broken, so he refrained from riding his bicycle. His cycling didn’t count towards his “goal”. “Modernized” systems metrify. Permalink 4:45 AM – 2 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Actually, just realized, *pirated* version in Italian! Permalink 4:41 AM – 2 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Minority Rule in Italiano I più intolleranti vincono sempre: la dittatura della minoranzahttps://it.insider.pro/opinion/2016-08-29/the_most_intolerant_wins-_the_dictatorship_of_the_small_minority_part_i_9154/   Permalink 4:40 AM – 2 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The ratio male/female hurricanes is monstrously random, Maestro Marco, @MAvellaneda55pic.twitter.com/SSviVczJO3 Permalink 6:32 PM – 1 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Mediocristan, sub-Mediocristan because bounded. @nalinmoniz @FiveThirtyEight Permalink 6:23 PM – 1 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Maestro Marco @MAvellaneda55 This is BS, Pinker Style,(i.e. BS a la @sapinker). Affaire close.pic.twitter.com/HGi99138pk Permalink 6:15 PM – 1 Sep 2016

@MaxAbrahms Al Qaeda Is Gaining Strength in Syria http://sports.yahoo.com/news/al-qaeda-gaining-strength-syria-213320031.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw   I’ve predicted this outcome from Day 1 because a semblance of moderation pays. Permalink 5:06 PM – 1 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Point is “how common is it to have both?” in % of 2nd condition not just if possible.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/771426553725087748   Permalink 12:21 PM – 1 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Medical Quandaries: Can one have both low resting heart beat & hypertension low RHB & CVD? low RHB & insulin resist L RHB & metabolic s? Permalink 12:16 PM – 1 Sep 2016

@nntaleb How to price an election [DRAFT]; why @FiveThirtyEight should engage in some other business than prediction.pic.twitter.com/QfHYqE0DR5 Permalink 8:39 AM – 1 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Whaaaaaaat? Donald Trump went to Mexico?https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/771146302134423552   Permalink 5:44 PM – 31 Aug 2016

@GhassanDahhan Sometimes I miss the good old days when neo-conservative think tanks were called ‘neo-conservative think tanks’ instead of ‘non-partisan’. Permalink 12:52 PM – 31 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Our GMO discussion is here (updated) http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 6:04 AM – 31 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Llewelyn, @Charles_Lister is a fraud. @llewelyn_morgan Permalink 5:49 AM – 31 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Went from: IYIs (Intellectuals Yet Idiots) support GMOs to Those who support GMOs are IYIs. Why? IYIs can’t tell scientism from science. Permalink 5:47 AM – 31 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Christians in Syria. Those Shillary wants to ethnically cleanse for the benefit of Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/770270385254363138   Permalink 4:41 AM – 31 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Lindy effecthttps://twitter.com/peterfrankopan/status/770920349944938496   Permalink 4:37 AM – 31 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 6:30 but never before.pic.twitter.com/2evbvTGO5B Permalink 3:43 PM – 30 Aug 2016

@RonPaulInstitut The Real US Syria Scandal: Supporting Sectarian War http://bit.ly/2c9eLMO   Permalink 12:38 PM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Redoing: What fits best for an IYI? Permalink 12:40 PM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Worth learning Arabic just to read comment by Wahabis upset w/Putin’s conference promoting tolerant CentAsian/Ottoman Sunnism #مؤتمر_الشيشان Permalink 11:35 AM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb What fits best for an IYI? Permalink 11:20 AM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The IYI (intellectual yet idiot) class are like English or psych majors arguing with speaker in advanced mathematics seminar. #Notevenwrong Permalink 7:08 AM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Bingo! @han0z @zerohedge Here is the derivation:pic.twitter.com/MQ9KH0tZLM Permalink 6:15 AM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Just published thanks to comments by Maestro @MAvellaneda55 “Stochastic Tail Exponent For Asymmetric Power Laws”https://www.academia.edu/28120847/Stochastic_Tail_Exponent_For_Asymmetric_Power_Laws?s=t   Permalink 5:56 AM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb ANNONCE: Je cherche a publier mon article sur la dictature des minorités en France. Merci d’avance.https://medium.com/@nntaled/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.nppetsqzg   Permalink 3:31 AM – 30 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Half of America owns 1% of America’s wealth => Pareto 80/20 (same inequality Pareto found in land ownership in Italy late 19th C) @zerohedge Permalink 7:30 PM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Quiz du jour: What is the tail exponent of the distribution, assuming it is power law (it is)?https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/770418048738164736   Permalink 5:52 PM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If one 1) is a libertarian & 2) Believes SHillary is ill Then shouldn’t one voting for someone incapacitated?https://twitter.com/segal_scott/status/770413381350064128   Permalink 5:25 PM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Obvious thing: to remove Salafis from Sunnism & revert to 1950s tolerant Sunnism. With #مؤتمر_الشيشان that’s what Putin is doing! Brilliant! Permalink 5:16 PM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Working with @DrCirillo on stats of violence we discovered media reports to be unreliable& pple unaware of it.https://twitter.com/alitahmizian/status/770268937024135168   Permalink 3:16 PM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb It is *precisely* because companies fit products to weirdest buyers that we have the rule. https://medium.com/@nntaled/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.fzsnj85i4  https://twitter.com/grumpyinnovator/status/770329758429220864   Permalink 1:16 PM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Why you can never trust employees to make the ethical decisions.https://medium.com/@nntaled/how-to-legally-own-another-person-4145a1802bf6#.7ytrbrb2o   Permalink 8:19 AM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Is it me or … nobody is noticing that the movement for nonSalafi Sunnism #مؤتمر_الشيشان is happening in… Russia! @aboabid @trscbrs Permalink 6:35 AM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 5/ Further difference betw academia and real life: Others will envy you for your knowledge less than they would for your credentials. Permalink 6:32 AM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb So if Ashaari is the “real” Sunni Islam, we go back to the Ottoman brand, much much more tolerant @aboabid @trscbrs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maturidi   Permalink 5:54 AM – 29 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Torn My focus shoud be for 2017 + Finishing Skin in the Game or + Deadlifting 440 lbs (slowed by 2 lifting injuries) Permalink 1:47 PM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Salafism Isn’t Really a Religion https://committingsociology.com/2016/08/28/salafism-isnt-really-a-religion/   via @CommittingSociology Permalink 12:37 PM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Bethlehem was in Judea the idea of linking Jesus to Nazareth (INRI on the cross) was to emphasize his non Judean side @MrNathanRollins Permalink 11:23 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 4/ Tweets triggered by draft of bio of math/trader Ed Thorp who said his most difficult job ever was head of math department at UC Irvine. Permalink 8:03 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@naval Politics, academia and social status are all zero-sum games. Positive-sum games create positive people.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/769867793214865408   Permalink 7:32 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Eastern Med was part of Rome as world was Med/nonMed and separation Europe came later post Islamhttps://twitter.com/_crackerfactory/status/769898374464151552   Permalink 7:10 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I tend to block pple who fail to get “~” (approx) means “not always true” and corrupt the conversation on twitter.https://twitter.com/guinerez/status/769892028004130816   Permalink 7:00 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 3/ The probability of getting a “tenure track” position for a new PhD has been getting closer & closer to 0. Permalink 6:01 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ You can tell people who come from countries w/rent seeking; they think that business is zero-sum: wealth is money taken from others. Permalink 5:23 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Academia is ~ zero-sum: every position/honor/promotion/rank/reward is taken from someone else. Business on the other hand creates business. Permalink 5:02 AM – 28 Aug 2016

@QuintusCurtius Clinton ally Saudi Arabia deports 27 Lebanese Christians just for owning books. Is western media reporting this? No https://twitter.com/Nour_Samaha/status/769474275367645185   Permalink 4:17 PM – 27 Aug 2016

@seanrateck1 @beachvetlbc @cecilbadlands @wizardQi @RyEichler @YouTube @NYDailyNewspic.twitter.com/WbEcrRcy9G Permalink 12:46 PM – 27 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Improved on my paper on power laws thanks to the great maestro @MAvellaneda55pic.twitter.com/GSOR3CpgUx Permalink 1:10 PM – 27 Aug 2016

@jelo1317 The #GMO debate. One student’s experience of pro-GMO #Propaganda @Cornell University http://www.thelibertybeacon.com/gmo-debate-one-students-experience-pro-gmo-propaganda-cornell-university/   @GMOWTFpic.twitter.com/yNHmZJON5L Permalink 12:51 PM – 23 Aug 2016