Tag Archives: Monsanto

Syria, Shias, Monsanto, Putin, Obama, Arab Bullshit, Thaler |Twitter

@nntaleb 2/ Sharmine Narwani @snarwani has done some work on Syria. Hama casualties <5% of what was reported. More soonhttps://mideastshuffle.com/2013/02/22/the-dirty-numbers-game-in-syria/ Permalink 1:58 PM – 22 Nov 2016

@RiskMinds Watch @nntaleb live on 7th Dec for FREE! “Your grandmother’s intuitions abt #tailrisk is right”. Register here http://spr.ly/60118GLAV ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mGPrXkjgda”> pic.twitter.com/mGPrXkjgda Permalink 12:00 PM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Trust none of what you hear, half of what you read, most of what you see.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.s5ge5ilqw Permalink 6:58 AM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine Philology du Jour: Possi cenam stabis aut passus mille meabis => تغدا و تمدا ، تعشا و تمشا Permalink 4:57 AM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I just published “Syria and the Statistics of War”https://medium.com/p/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd Permalink 4:15 AM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 4) Since Obama took office # of Christians in Syria/Mesopotamia down by 60-80%. Many still speak the lang of Christ, ethnically cleansed. Permalink 3:26 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb For those who still don’t know that Pinker’s theory on drop in violence is BS. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say @BlueAnt2014 Permalink 3:10 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Cognitive biases are psycholobullshit, unless mentioned in ancient lit #lindyeffect @CAM_SMlTH @Alex_Walshy @seanmcarroll @ValaAfshar Permalink 2:45 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb It is called fooled by randomness. This is *exactly* mistaking probability for certainty. @Alex_Walshy @seanmcarroll @ValaAfshar Permalink 2:35 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Shias share with (Orthodox) Christians the notion of self sacrifice in pilgrimage. #skininthegame no cheap signalinghttps://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/800772465907666944 Permalink 11:38 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I can vouch: Monsanto tried to make life miserable but they hired PR imbeciles who didn’t know I was independent.https://twitter.com/food_democracy/status/800741851456098304 Permalink 8:46 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2021 @filipeteles Permalink 6:12 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You will never convince someone that he is wrong. Survival does. Prologue of #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/Ouu4BFV585 Permalink 5:59 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nassim ‘Black Swan’ Taleb Sums Up Obama’s Legacy In 3 Painfully “Real” Tweets | Zero Hedgehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-20/nassim-black-swan-taleb-sums-obamas-legacy-3-painfully-real-tweets Permalink 3:41 PM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Saif leave that poor Thaler boy to his mourning. He won’t be able to control others for a while, may this lifetime. @saifedean @R_Thaler Permalink 10:46 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Well, I don’t trust Syria numbers, particularly after this story of the “hospitals” in E. Aleppo. pic.twitter.com/y7SG9wlNYy Permalink 8:54 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The same imbeciles who calculated scientifically that Trump had <2-10% chance chance of winning think GMOs are safe. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html Permalink 8:16 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Spending additional 1 T on infrastructure may get us something other than novacaine to show for it. Obama spent it on salaries @MudsharkOX Permalink 4:01 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 3) Don’t fughet Obama is leaving us a Ponzi scheme, added ~8 trillions in debt with rates at 0. If they rise, costs of deficit explode… Permalink 3:32 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Idiotic (IYI) journos are trying to make us believe Putin is fighting Mother Theresa in Syria, not the AlQaeda of Sept 11. @BenteScheller Permalink 3:28 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The conflation of science and scientism.https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/800296599314370560 Permalink 3:16 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) (Cont) But in the end what Obama did that is unforgivable is increasing centralization in a complex system. Permalink 3:50 PM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Obama: Protected banksters (largest bonus pool in 2010) “Helped” Libya Served AlQaeda/SaudiBarbaria(Syria & Yemen)https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/800104636594192384 Permalink 3:33 PM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb For anyone who needs to know. @charles_lister is a paid Salafi apologist/propagandist at @MiddleEastInst and AlQaeda promoter.https://twitter.com/kenanrahmani/status/799338345948188672 Permalink 11:50 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Libertarianism and Julian the Apostate. pic.twitter.com/HV8yVWdzPl Permalink 10:54 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The only way to understand Aleppo is to call someone in North Syria. All the rest is suspicious Salafi propaganda.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/799883376937340929 Permalink 8:31 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb No, it is not “racist” to resist intolerant minorities, no, no, no!https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.7fh4kzqs1 Permalink 7:27 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@ashuduttmarkets Fucking idiot, why don’t you unfollow and find someone else who wants your instruction on what to write about? Permalink 6:55 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Tragedy of Syrian Christians: promoted Arabism to secularize away from Islam, instead of Greco-Roman-Aramaic past. pic.twitter.com/holXWYCbzj Permalink 6:47 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb How Fat Tony got rich betting against charlatans like @JustinWolfers (Green Lumber Fallacy chapter in #Antifragile) pic.twitter.com/gNAOVsDREI Permalink 5:46 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Funny pple don’t realize @loveconcursall “Lara Stuart-Müller” frm Zurich is in fact a fat male bearded ISIS operative @ThePorcie @wootwoo3 Permalink 6:08 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@loveconcursall Please explain the “lie” in a historical fact. They don’t have someone smarter to represent the Syrian opposition? Permalink 3:40 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Pple in the BS-vending business BS even more when it becomes too obvious they’re in the BS business #noskininthegamehttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/799712650674388993 Permalink 3:18 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The Russians rang the bells of the Mar Georgios Greek Orthodox Cathedral. People remember. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_George_Greek_Orthodox_Cathedral https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/799744116586348545 Permalink 2:50 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb First time church bells were heard in Beirut under Ottomans was in 1773 when the Russian fleet came. To understand Putin in Syria & support. Permalink 2:40 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Medawar (round in Levantine) seems to come from Aramaic (Arabic: mustadir). @zaliin Permalink 2:14 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I can’t wear a cross in Saudi Arabia. Apostates are executed. I am not going to cry for you yet. @Quran_Chart @asadabukhalil Permalink 1:42 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb “Bigotry” against Arab states when they treat non-Sunnis like deviants? This is called “Arab Bullshit” @tomazy_m @leithfadel @asadabukhalil Permalink 1:20 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@sterndavidi 2000 out of 1.3 million Moroccan Jews! Permalink 1:19 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb US State dept estimate of Jews in Iran is ~ 20-25K @EliCash22 @asadabukhalil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Jews Permalink 1:09 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb This is true. Note Iran still has 25,000 Jews. Arab countries have practically none left.https://twitter.com/asadabukhalil/status/799714208690491392 Permalink 1:05 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Presenting Medical summary paper on Antifragility Nov 28 at the U of Pennsylvania School of Medicine. Paper: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/medicine.pdf Permalink 11:31 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Cannot hide my Schadenfreude watching @R_Thaler panic attacks -& nudgers who banked on Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison to manipulate citizens.https://twitter.com/r_thaler/status/799405867691077632 Permalink 9:19 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb UK universities ban newspapers on campus,yet allow Salafi propaganda. Anyone ag. Salafis becomes “Islamophobe”. Boycott UK universities? Permalink 5:04 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb x=y != z in the right side corridor @CutTheKnotMath @mikeandallie pic.twitter.com/pZBOhqZrcG Permalink 2:45 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After last nomination I feel that my dream of seeing Saudi/Qatari royals in Guantanamo getting close…All my betes noires are falling now! Permalink 6:25 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du jour: Kfar (kafr) and Dar (dor) relate to “round”. Dar also village/house. Dar & Medawar => same root. pic.twitter.com/IqidB3sUV7 Permalink 5:56 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@mikeandallie @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb was able to print the shape and will use it for a project with my kids tonight. Thanks for sharing your work. pic.twitter.com/uNip1bykoQ Permalink 5:05 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb A clear explanation of my problem with 538 probabilities.https://hedgefundsmarts.wordpress.com/2016/11/17/smoke-gets-in-your-eyes-clinton-landslide-and-other-pipe-dreams/ Permalink 2:54 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb John Bolton needs to be put in a psychiatric asylum. The very problem of Iran w/West is a regime change (Mosadegh).https://twitter.com/jessicaschulb/status/799380410362904576 Permalink 2:51 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb One leg of the octopus @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/tcT67IMYIq Permalink 12:42 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After the fact some people think they got it.https://twitter.com/ejnbo/status/799346863065341952 Permalink 12:28 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb A better perspective on a Mandelbrotian Octopus @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/ytIYwVxGL9 Permalink 10:38 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The first idiot to fire from the State Department. But from my experience replacing all the staff is necessary.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/799193394761400320 Permalink 10:06 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You get a beautiful Mandelbrotian mathematical object at the “nugget”, worth exploring. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/mNceojHgDK Permalink 9:14 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The IYI Class slowing realizing that everything they know turned out to be fiction, as in Candid Camera. pic.twitter.com/TaoffZ7qsi Permalink 4:44 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@byzantinepower The more you learn about Byzantium the more you learn how acutely the Syriac genius inflected its character. The West lost that spark. Permalink 4:24 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 8 days after about everything the IYI class (forecasters, journos, pol “scientists”, Pinker) knows fell apart; starting to realize what… Permalink 4:23 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Donaldo considering Nikki Haley, an Indian Sikh woman is a stroke of genius! @realDonaldTrump Permalink 3:21 PM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The saying “silence is gold” applies only to fools. Permalink 1:29 PM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Gibbon on Syrian (Greeks) fashion-obsessions & “contempt for female modesty”. Fashion week in Laodicea(Latakia) now! pic.twitter.com/cwWiF7BMmG Permalink 12:58 PM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Sweet vindication: publisher said sales of electronics books down 17-30% pending on genre vs real books. #lindyeffect at work Permalink 11:37 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@RandPaul “I can’t support anybody to be our secretary of state who didn’t learn the lesson of the Iraq War,”http://reason.com/blog/2016/11/15/interview-with-rand-paul-i-cant-support Permalink 6:08 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb How to get rid of intruders who bug you for selfies. pic.twitter.com/MbHVml3fwl Permalink 5:46 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) Turned out that @yaneerbaryam has used a version of Simpson’s Paradox to debunk math of the Selfish Gene by entertainer @RichardDawkins Permalink 4:33 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The same people who complain that we only had 2 “bad” choices in election also complained abt my ethics of voting for 3rd party. #IYI Permalink 4:04 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After Pinker gets elementary statistical significance (if),we’ll teach him Simpson’s Paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/798351010544566272 Permalink 2:33 PM – 15 Nov 2016

@RomKoziol @nntaleb You reach a point when you have had enough of the BS, the hype, the gurus, the new age stuff, etc. and you say it like it is. Permalink 2:25 PM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Doesn’t look good. @TimHarford @obradovits1 Permalink 11:27 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Paula, @schmittpaula Nice surprise to get this in my feed. I will order them immediately! Permalink 7:56 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Did you read Antifragile, Yes/No? @TimHarford @obradovits1 Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Also a lot of people in NY who voted Johnson would have voted Trump. @neilchriss Permalink 5:57 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After that, sign the petition to allow S. Pinker’s to wave statistical significance in work on drop in violence.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/798351010544566272 Permalink 5:50 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Ask @TimHarford. In my copy, he did not acknowledge anything. @malikbarak Permalink 5:34 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Well… as it turned out I’ve taken a look at the former. @limawort @PoliticsProse @TimHarford @FearNoTrieb Permalink 5:22 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Hence the “populist” dislike of IYI is ingrained is about all languages. @MarcosCarreira @stan_yurin Permalink 5:21 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Any idea of diff betw “The Power of Disorder to Transform our Lives”& “Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder”?https://twitter.com/PoliticsProse/status/798189353415491585 Permalink 5:18 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Friends, looking for info on how many read an Op-Ed in NYT if total circulation is, say 1mil. 90k? What’s typical hits of OpE on Bloomberg? Permalink 4:32 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb To whoever translated this: “fatphobia” is fear of dietary fat, not “gordofobia” (overweight)! #traduttoretradittorehttps://twitter.com/griverom/status/798479605271318528 Permalink 3:13 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 3) This, given the presumption Aristotle was translated into Arabic not from the Greek, but from the Aramaic-Syriac. [Evidence for Galen] Permalink 2:59 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) Is Levantine is the only language in which the term “philosopher” is derogatory? To bullshit (produce non solid verbiage) = “tfalsaf” Permalink 2:56 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du Jour: Discovered that “Intellectual Yet Idiot” translates into Levantine as… “philosopher” (faylasouf!)https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.dpt9b52xo Permalink 2:54 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The Intellctual Yet Idiot (IYI) article is spreading into the languages IYIs speak.http://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/aktuell/nassim-nicholas-taleb-die-wohlwissenden-ld.128349 Permalink 2:44 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I am not often angry (saliency), but why WTF do readers expect authors to write motivational messages on twitter?https://twitter.com/WriteWthCourage/status/798260310285185024 Permalink 2:51 PM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The best so far! @robert_wehttps://twitter.com/robert_we/status/798258175946457093 Permalink 12:31 PM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 4- The Lesson of 2016 is that it took social media (not a “free” press) to take universal suffrage to its natural conclusion. Permalink 9:31 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Let’s model a random Congress composed of citizens. It shd best represent the population by LLN. See Pluchino etal. @normonics @yaneerbaryam Permalink 8:17 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb In Complex Systems Terms: Populism: bottom-up spontaneous-order participation NonPopulism “democracy”: hierarchical & constrained choices Permalink 7:58 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Finally converging to becoming the author of a single book: the INCERTO is out tomorrow.https://www.amazon.com/dp/0399590455/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_x_qiCkybRNATJZ8 Permalink 6:13 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb When you risk other people’s lives for “ideas” w/o paying the price & w/o being apologetic, #skininthegame. Kapish? @geor97 @BillKristol Permalink 6:02 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I hope this scum @BillKristol is forced to settle in Iraq, & risks beheading by ISIS. Scum, scum, scum.https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/798153276092981248 Permalink 5:46 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Populism: democratic participation by the uneducated population when conflicts w/that of the miseducated one. Works?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/797964184956891136 Permalink 2:29 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Thank you @kilkenomics !!!https://twitter.com/mdvex/status/798076026622451712 Permalink 12:39 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot I said “rigorous” not political science. @dandrezner Permalink 5:04 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I am still looking for someone to give a rigorous explanation/explanation of difference between populism & democracy. Nothing yet. Permalink 4:47 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Graphical view of the problem: >1 except in a tiny nugget around {0,0,0} @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/ULkgMsX61Z Permalink 3:48 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Graphical view of the problem: >1 except in a tiny nugget around {0,0,0} @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/ULkgMsX61Z Permalink 3:48 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb No idiot the NYT gave legitimacy to the Iraq incasion @John_F_Donnelly @kilkenomics Permalink 1:41 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Let us not forget that the NYT was largely responsible for the Iraq mess. Includes pundits like Thomas Friedmam @kilkenomics Permalink 1:16 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@kilkenomics “A vote for #Brexit is a vote for complex systems” – @nntaleb #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com/BoPIfGLR8r Permalink 6:03 AM – 13 Nov 2016

@kilkenomics “A vote for #Brexit is a vote for complex systems” – @nntaleb #kilkenomics pic.twitter.com/BoPIfGLR8r Permalink 6:03 AM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Rituals are the music of life. Permalink 1:43 PM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I told Politico to get lost for that “Black Swan” article. @SamWahlenpic.twitter.com/yUUniDRn0y Permalink 10:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I told Politico to get lost for that “Black Swan” article. @SamWahlen pic.twitter.com/yUUniDRn0y Permalink 10:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The IYI didn’t get that censoring pple w/unfair tags “racist”,”sexist”,”schlongist” doesn’t work unless they also censor in the voting booth Permalink 8:42 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Reaction of @FiveThirtyEight same as cowardly traders who unexpectedly blow up, blame mkts, God, Mars… Accept bad probabilistic reasoning! Permalink 8:27 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Errors of @FiveThirtyEight et al. in “UPDATING” probabilities that shd be around .5/ noise https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/binary%20forecasting%20538.nb.pdf pic.twitter.com/jcZccHsr63 Permalink 8:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Indeed Salibi is largely unreliable; Syria’s Islamization was very slow from minority rule. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.wrrhkreke https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/797444295053680640 Permalink 6:57 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Deirdre Mc and Rory S discussing skin in the game. How Hillary shd be ambassador to Lybia.https://twitter.com/cravenpartners/status/797414016352194560 Permalink 5:15 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@CarolineKirrane .@rorysutherland delighted with his birthday cake! He got a rousing rendition of happy birthday from the crowd here at #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com/hNFiWMlWUo Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@CarolineKirrane .@rorysutherland delighted with his birthday cake! He got a rousing rendition of happy birthday from the crowd here at #kilkenomics pic.twitter.com/hNFiWMlWUo Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@ThomBarry Nassim. Interesting that rulers in the past usually went into battle. A Roman emperor was captured and turned into a stool! #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com/4363uss8k1 Permalink 4:42 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@kilkenomics Deirdre @PrudentiaMag shares that she was born ‘Donald’ which, apparently in Irish means ‘world leader’. (Don’t tell Trump!)pic.twitter.com/zFzOrq217X Permalink 4:27 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb My point was that it was 50% @EconomicTimes Permalink 4:49 PM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Highly exaggerated Who called it right for Donald Trump? A professor, a filmmaker & Nassim Nicholas Talebhttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/who-called-it-right-for-donald-trump-a-professor-a-filmmaker-and-nassim-nicholas-taleb/articleshow/55379214.cms Permalink 2:36 PM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The ricochet from demonizing Trump by Hillarists & idiotic media: all he has to do now is be half the monster they portrayed. #Antifragile Permalink 2:34 PM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The verdict is that @Charles_Lister from @MiddleEastInst should be tagged as a paid promoter of Jihadi terrorism. On his employer… later Permalink 6:09 AM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Excellent term, “sciolus”, ancien equivalent to “scientism”. Also philosophaster, bullshit artist, or just “Pinker”.https://twitter.com/atomasevic/status/797028412695203840 Permalink 3:04 AM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Why did Obama turn on AlQaeda now? Because Hillary is out of the way? Very strange.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/796850098839941120 Permalink 5:24 PM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb It is hard to find a plumber, baker, janitor, dentist, surgeon who is an impostor. Nate Silver, St. Pinker, Sam Harris are total impostors.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/796780160162942976 Permalink 12:38 PM – 10 Nov 2016

@GhassanDahhan The guy on the left was just added on the US list of designated terrorists. The guy on the right was just awarded the Press Freedom Award.pic.twitter.com/h3bUU2HgMU Permalink 11:28 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I can’t stand impostors. Permalink 10:22 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb “Intellectual” America: @sapinker who doesn’t know mean!= sample mean now arbiter of… probabilitistic reasoning!pic.twitter.com/Uc59XoXqs0 Permalink 9:25 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@Sartor1836 A Nobel Laureate* in Economics, ladies and gentlemen. cc: @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/hackcelerity/status/796501638601121792 Permalink 9:18 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After his reaction to my earlier criticism it is my opinion @NateSilver538 should leave the business.https://twitter.com/aigo3000/status/796738157802819584 Permalink 7:45 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb What is alarming isn’t that they were wrong but that these idiots underestimated their error rate. Similar to p-val https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2834266 https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/796700880246571012 Permalink 5:23 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Vienna @nutanixpic.twitter.com/pCngG5w5p8 Permalink 5:03 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Anyone taking conditional market forecasts frm someone (@justinwolfers) paid by charitable contributions has a pbm!https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/796394861633110016 Permalink 11:52 PM – 9 Nov 2016

Horace, Frauds, SaudiBarbaria, Syria, Salafi, Jihadis, Monsanto, Mr Bradford, Gulenists, Turkey, Drezner | Twitter

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@nntaleb Horace translated by Fat Tony: “Those you meet on the way up, you will also meet on the way down.” @ArmandDAngour @TijlDeconynck Permalink 9:56 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This Epistle is Gold. @ArmandDAngourpic.twitter.com/tslgg8xuWs Permalink 9:39 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Federal Reserve: Stultorum incurata pudor malus ulcera celat [Horace] The fool through excess modesty hides his wound instead of healing it. Permalink 9:15 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/You don’t become economist by accident but genetic mutation: low curiosity/erudition, inability to be bored by boring stuff, colorlessness Permalink 8:37 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Who would you avoid in a street fight? A young economist who looks like an economist A 75 y.o. who deadlift >405 lbs Permalink 8:07 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Incorporating 3ashura in Skin in the Game: “qorban” @ban_kanj @faleflixpic.twitter.com/EGjszWuo24 Permalink 7:50 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Friends are easy I need interesting enemies. @Spfannenschmidt Permalink 5:33 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Pesticide (herbicide, insecticide,etc.) is systematically giving nature antibiotics followed by chemotherapy, & claim “no evidence” of harm. Permalink 5:30 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ok, more squid ink (it’s Friday)pic.twitter.com/UPsch6QjGr Permalink 6:20 PM – 29 Jul 2016

@Trader_Moe Only Taleb can uncover the connection btwn GMO & Soviet utopianism–both the product of idiot intellectuals.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/759080918392901632 Permalink 11:50 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb One should call IYI people just what they are: Intellectuals Yet Idiots. @AdamThierer @hbkazemi33 @calestouspic.twitter.com/ciiTgLio2l Permalink 10:39 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb السرج المدهّب ما بيعمل من الحمار حصانhttps://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/759068152546390016 Permalink 10:34 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Barba no facit philosophumhttps://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/759068152546390016 Permalink 10:05 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony on Michael Bloomberg: “The man has never been self-owned; he is one of those who get more dependent as they get richer”. Permalink 9:13 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/ When you have skin in the game, boring things like checking the safety of the aircraft cease to be boring. @nntaleb Permalink 9:03 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Exactly the point!!!https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/759046438743527426 Permalink 8:33 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Nothing can be both boring and truly important. Permalink 8:21 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note that Islamic contract law contains terms that are > Latin than Greek; Latin was used in Beirut School of Law. @Nb1769 @ByzantJustice Permalink 7:54 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For fellow funded by Saudi$, investigate U.S.Wahabi preacher Joe Bradford. Hides under Xtian name @joebradfordnet @sylvainlp @GhassanDahhan Permalink 5:50 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Paula, check this (3eli not Eliahu) for similarities. (The sect after death of sons). Hidden religion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eli_(biblical_figure) @schmittpaula Permalink 5:46 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The French are starting to grow a mini-brain. But take the idea to its logical consequence: Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/GhassanDahhan/status/758994334033195010 Permalink 5:21 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Low tech solutions (unlike GMOs) have no side effects! How ‘Ugly’ Fruits and Vegetables Can Help Solve World Hungerhttp://on.natgeo.com/1Wemto5 Permalink 4:20 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb My review of Wolfram’s book https://www.amazon.com/review/R13FZJNTCNN34Q/ref=cm_cr_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8&ASIN=1579550037 Permalink 5:14 PM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Twitter friends, anyone knows of a Cat Bond ETF? Thanks. Permalink 2:48 PM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Religious Texts are never precise enough–which explains longevity. “The devil can quote the scriptures for his own case” @candela3paz Permalink 2:06 PM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The frauds I am currently exposing: +GMOs +Salafism/SaudiBarbaria +Fallacies by IYI class: Pinker, economists, etc. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html Permalink 9:56 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Severe error to look at texts; observe social/political behavior. Shiites act like Westerners (Catholicism of 50s) @schmittpaula @mtpollack Permalink 7:55 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont) The error by West to classify Salafis as “religion”( #SaudiBarbaria propaganda); shd be criminalized as genocidal political movement. Permalink 7:49 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The regulation of the cults by the state was proposed by Plato in Laws. Nobody cared for 800 y. Salafism an old ideapic.twitter.com/RXoezTkpzS Permalink 7:31 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb More probable that the source had a genetic mutation than the proba being unconditionally low. @John1ODea Permalink 7:00 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Intellectual life is infected w/ignorant BS vendors s.a. @michaelshermer who called Pinker’s book “well documented”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/758648675203776513 Permalink 6:21 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Armenians of Aleppo among the Christians and minorities extreminated in Syria.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/724705703059972096 Permalink 6:06 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont): Where Pinker is “not even wrong”: HIS data do not match HIS statements. BS Vending. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say pic.twitter.com/63PAfnw6LC Permalink 6:01 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Collecting comments on draft paper on decline of violence (Why Pinker’s thesis is *not even wrong* to be science).https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say Permalink 5:06 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb To perpetuate a lie, you must whisper it, not shout it. Permalink 4:35 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Explain your logical flaw: of course they have missiles pointed at us SINCE we are not allies. @spencer_chen Permalink 3:53 PM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Iocus Russicae: Si Donaldus ascendit, Hilaria perdiderit Permalink 10:45 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “My friend”: 1) politicians: anybody, 2) pple: friend 2) namedropper: a hotshot, 2) mafia: another member, 3) me: I forgot his first name. Permalink 10:04 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@TheBrowser “Always apologise, except when you have done something wrong” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:17 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Someone explain in clear logical terms why the US has an alliance w/Saudi Barbaria, but refuses one with Russia on grounds of “democracy”. Permalink 7:04 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (Version 2, longer) People don’t know what they are talking about when they say “religion”.pic.twitter.com/JX4G9OWL9G Permalink 6:12 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Hope Sanchuniathon (in Levantine,Atallah) could exist somewhere in the Syriac stacks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanchuniathon Permalink 6:40 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Was asked w/my anti-Salafi activism to worry about safety. Wahabis can’t do targeted killing. Too low IQ. Only 87 y.o.s & random children. Permalink 4:36 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@DavidBCollum And Hillary’s bribes from sovereign states are not attempts to influence the election?https://twitter.com/Slate/status/758075479458979840 Permalink 4:13 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Just like cancer stop it before the multiplicative effect. Too late otherwise.https://twitter.com/hanscees/status/758060298947424256 Permalink 3:25 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Typo: I meant “by opposition to “superstitio Permalink 2:14 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (Cont) No term for religion in Greek (just cults) & in latin it meant superstitio (fear of gods). 3rd reading!pic.twitter.com/qIUV3DaJiz Permalink 2:02 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Unlike in France, there are only two types of Jihadis in Lebanon. Those who are incarcerated, & those who have been …liquidated. Permalink 12:43 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb About to spend a few days in France & Lebanon. In France my risk detector is always on alert. Never in Lebanon. Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb NEVER engage Salafis&Co online. Expose then block them. The Jesuits, uberrethoricians, failed to convert a single 1.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/757981820898140160 Permalink 11:24 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Closer to transfats! @trishankkarthik @calestous Permalink 10:33 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Conditional on act of terrorism, what’s the probability of person being Salafi? 99.9% P[A|B] not P[B|A]. Now I can block you. @SaraAssaf Permalink 9:03 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb >99.9% of targeted Euro/US civilians in past 18y by Salafi/Wahabis yet some try equivalence w/Shiism. crypto #ISIS sympathizers @SaraAssaf Permalink 8:47 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A 60 year program of top-down secularization in Syria& Mesopotamia & 100Y in Turkey has led to worsening. @British_Aladdin @AlMesopotamian Permalink 8:40 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Basically the minority rule doesn’t harm in mixed populations. @yaneerbaryam has shown effects of cantons. @British_Aladdin @AlMesopotamian Permalink 8:36 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Paradoxically, in places like Syria where they are native, I would give them their own municipalities, & isolate the rest. @British_Aladdin Permalink 8:31 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Problem is also “measured” & fake-scholars Qatar-Wahabi funded propagandists s.a. Shadi Hamid @shadihamid invading think tanks s.a Brookings Permalink 8:16 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont)Godel-Popper argument: Tolerating the intolerant leads to collapse http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf To do with Salafis? Permalink 7:37 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb OK, this is the flaneurmobilepic.twitter.com/yLgh4ADsOM Permalink 7:17 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Should I show a picture of my car the flaneurmobile, Yes/No? @WriterPb Permalink 7:00 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Monsanto Shill Juma produces a perfect illustration of a severe IYI reasoning error @Calestous @trishankkarthikpic.twitter.com/B3efJC9i07 Permalink 6:55 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In 2010, closed Twitter acct to focus on Antifragile. Worked! Reopened 11/2012 to punish BS reviewers For SITG shd I Permalink 1:17 PM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Excellent! Convexity effects contradict mean-field/naive evol.@yaneerbaryam @gwaconstable @Plektix @Corina_tarnitapic.twitter.com/J3jfHOuSW0 Permalink 10:58 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Look at the metaproba! Same BS as Jay Ulfedler’s @dtchimp “mathematical model”. @philipbstark @johndurantpic.twitter.com/5pHyJyLLVw Permalink 10:11 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Which probabilities are decidable? Which ones are balloney? @philipbstark @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurantpic.twitter.com/Gdy8L0wjL1 Permalink 9:54 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Salafism: Imagine religion having intolerant beliefs about the State; the State having intolerant beliefs about religion, together. @fpoling Permalink 9:14 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Sorry, pal, but the Sultans had Qanun laws that were of Byzantine origin & separate from Sharia. @Nb1769 Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The idea is: to be “decidable”, error on probability < error on exp. payoff @philipbstark @ReekRend @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurant Permalink 8:51 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@republicofmath I like this message from @nntalebpic.twitter.com/ZzdBxxWyPv Permalink 7:44 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Probability” following the path of maestros Freedman and Stark @philipbstark @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurantpic.twitter.com/NTTjyOGNaL Permalink 7:06 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2) so the ignorance is not just with Christianity; it is to the point that Salafizers talk about Shiite thought without the slightest grasp Permalink 6:19 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 1) My experience w/Salafi and Co: could not find one w/erudition outside Islamic studies; they get lost in “meta” discussions of religion. Permalink 6:17 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@philipbstark @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurant @nntaleb Point is “chance Trump wins” meaningless. See https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/Preprints/611.pdf re earthquake probability Permalink 1:22 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Meaning absurd to direct “Islamophobia” at Shiites when they act differently. Shd be Salafiphobia. Kapish? @TheBobber Permalink 11:08 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For those of you on a hot summer day want to stroll on a beach, this is the way to do it. Takes some training.https://youtu.be/eTm0X93l8vk Permalink 10:44 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No”discussion” w/Salafis & Co: the Jesuits tried for 400 y & Jesuits couldn’t convert *a single one* you won’t change his mind on twitter. Permalink 10:07 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Anyone has some backgrounds on Brookings boy Shadi Hamid @shadihamid? Something smells funny. Permalink 9:50 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Monotheistic (Abrahamic) religions are by definition exclusive hence intolerant; unless they recycle pagan creeds.https://twitter.com/primeargument/status/757240531462127616 Permalink 8:51 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This is not a zen proverb but an antisemitic qoranic verse. @DPrabhata Permalink 8:13 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Islamists think their “expertise” allows debating me on religion, as if memorizing multiplication tables made one a mathematician. Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Act most probabilistitic inequalities are missing from Ineq books. Wiki has a great list to compile from. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_inequalities#Probability_theory_and_statistics @alxpr1c3 Permalink 6:09 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Christian Aramaic (Syriac) separates church from law by using the Greek *nomos* in place of the Aramaic “Din”.pic.twitter.com/VCcdcKa6aO Permalink 5:58 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic meaning of “Din”: all of it = *law*. Remarkably Christian Aramaic uses Nomos for law:separation church/statepic.twitter.com/4uEdKvKcqA Permalink 5:52 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Original meaning of “Religion” in Arabic “Din” = law. Hard to explain “secular but religious” to a Salafi.pic.twitter.com/hWpOu9xau5 Permalink 5:44 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In Malta they write a similar language to Shami in latin alphabet. It works! Permalink 5:58 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb So Mr Bradford you have been getting money from Saudi Sources. I have no more use for you. @joebradfordnet Permalink 4:00 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Bradford are you financed by Saudi Arabia, yes/no @joebradfordnet Permalink 3:55 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Bradford 1) Is your Salafi preaching financed in any way by Saudi Arabia? 2) Were you born or converted? @joebradfordnet Permalink 3:00 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ahman Al-Shathry you keep anwering w/incomprehensible tirades. Are you Salafi/Wahabi, Yes/No? @Abunass3r Permalink 2:11 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Is is Yes or No? Just one word in English. @Abunass3r Permalink 2:02 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ahmad Al-shathry, can you give a straight answer: Yes/No are you a Salafi/Wahabi? @Abunass3r Permalink 1:58 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr. AlSlathry @Abunass3r are you a Salafi/Wahabi, Yes/No?https://twitter.com/Abunass3r/status/756938621379371008 Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No worship without Skin in the Game. The Gods don’t like Cheap Tawk.pic.twitter.com/0DUQ7EWuIJ Permalink 1:24 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is meant to show random violence is only Salafis, not Shiite, Sufi or Sunni-secular. @Streitapfel Permalink 12:26 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Le me rephrase: How many Protestant, Shiites, Sufis, that is, nonSalafis have blown up random people in Europe in 2016? @bollywig @raggedtag Permalink 12:22 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In 2010 summarized The Black Swan in 2nd ed. as few were getting it & talked without knowing what it was about…https://twitter.com/alxpr1c3/status/756903331474309120 Permalink 11:00 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How many Buddhists murder for ‘religion” ?@bollywig @raggedtag Permalink 10:36 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb #Turkey: the press is confused; the purge isn’t against securalists but Gulenists, another type of Islamists. Permalink 10:34 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb What is unacademic abt Leibnitz: he was incapable of working on subjects w/o big substance; even when commissioned to do historical work. Permalink 8:23 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb La7azt ma3 murasalete inno el3alam ahyanlon yista3mlo el-latini [cognitive effort] @CatnissEvercute @Priapus_D Permalink 6:02 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala le’3a Ma fi le’3a bala adab – Hayde ‘3altet Antun s3ade Sha3bna bye7ke sheme biyektob/biye2ra Inglisi msh 3arabe @Priapus_D Permalink 5:23 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala legha. Hayde ghaltet Antun S3adeh. @Priapus_D Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb You cannot talk about antifragile anecdotes without link to the necessary central link to convexity.https://www.academia.edu/26660005/_Anti_Fragility_and_Convex_Responses_in_Medicine Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Economist rediscovering Antifragile …and poorly.https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/756802988648361984 Permalink 4:59 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 7ada bi3alle2 3a tarjemte?pic.twitter.com/6bVgAmRyaQ Permalink 4:43 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Bil Shami ma3 el 7arf el latinepic.twitter.com/ezHefPzTSJ Permalink 4:19 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Meaning 100% iatrogenics. Think of a pilot who randomly pilots a plane. 100% crash. @Blacklabellogic Permalink 4:38 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 100% for thhttps://twitter.com/blacklabellogic/status/756632506783375360 Permalink 4:32 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb An evening (pre-squid) ink with the indispensable Tom Holland @holland_tompic.twitter.com/ZhI39WPKLy Permalink 4:28 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Malta yok” Fughedaboudit in Turkish, “there is no such thing as Malta”, used in the Levant, partic. my grandparents’ generation. Permalink 3:33 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Tashdemir,you mean they did not brutalize Antifragile? @tasdemirm Permalink 12:43 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb They likely brutalized the newly published Turkish version of *Antifragile*; we can test if it gets stronger.https://twitter.com/MahirZeynalov/status/756410873955090432 Permalink 12:35 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Trump’s nomination proves a rule: *The most flawed of risk takers is more real than the most qualified deadfish.* Find another risk taker! Permalink 11:50 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Three meanings of SHRB in Aramaic. Third is to spread. @menlebenpic.twitter.com/d8w69lmFdR Permalink 11:08 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Discovered Sharbel is not Sharb El = Story of God but Glow of God. @menlebenpic.twitter.com/pNQi1Ld7oz Permalink 11:03 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Answered my own question & derived the Mills ratio for Pearson class of distributions. [could be typos]http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1864278/inverse-mills-ratio-for-non-normal-distributions/1867758#1867758 Permalink 10:23 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For Fat Tony f*** you money is working a job with downtime room meditation & , s a security guard & doing science on the side @alanklement Permalink 8:38 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The case for f*** you money before doing scienxe.https://twitter.com/barabasi/status/756489176007180288 Permalink 8:14 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@forsaken911 Sadly, the 9/11 victims and survivors need a PR machine. Saudi Arabia’s PR machine… http://interc.pt/29Q1uaj by @lhfang Permalink 6:16 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Then they should learn to keep their mouth shut. Good discipline when you don’t intend to do anything. @hbkazemi33 @FedericaMog Permalink 6:43 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No communiqué by empty suits does anything unless accompanied w/sanctions. Not threats, actions. Doesn’t have to be military. @F1Ruaraidh Permalink 6:16 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Talk talk talk. IYI bureaucrats. Better keep silent UNLESS you do something (like Puting, Erdogan). Kapish?https://twitter.com/FedericaMog/status/756174592608272384 Permalink 5:57 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note that this scene dates 3 years *after* Fat Tony’s advice in Antifragile. Permalink 5:42 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The main advice Fat Tony will give you: from the position of f*** you money (John Goodman in The Gambler)https://youtu.be/xdfeXqHFmPI Permalink 5:39 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@yaneerbaryam A brief note: Why Silver was tripped up on Trumppic.twitter.com/nwejso8GUG Permalink 7:04 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note that brko/brkto is corrupted in Levantine: rikbo/rikbto. @menleben @holland_tom Permalink 7:30 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Concluding the Daniel Drezner: @dandrezner is poster boy of the IYI class:totally clueless & no accountability #SITGhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/746879505659207680 Permalink 7:27 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note afo (face) we use “afa” back [wesh = face] @menleben Permalink 7:24 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb رجعت حليمة لعادتا القديمة! @ArmandDAngour Permalink 6:12 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@ArmandDAngour @nntaleb nice! Cf. Horace (Epist.1.X.24)’naturam expelles furca, tamen usque recurret’, expel nature with a pitchfork, it will always return Permalink 5:58 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Syriachttps://twitter.com/menleben/status/756111974811959297 Permalink 6:03 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Chassez le naturel il revient au gallop. Permalink 5:46 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Likewise when I block someone for trolling, I automatically block all his followers.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/755865542460837888 Permalink 5:05 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Turkey: Failure of secularization from the top (so for Syria and Iraq). Iran: the reverse? Permalink 4:22 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I never compromise, never with ethics. @zayn_300 @farnamstreet Permalink 4:42 PM – 20 Jul 2016

@lukasnaugle “When conflicted between two choices, take neither.” @nntalebpic.twitter.com/TinN9udF0u Permalink 1:17 PM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No type 2 error: Congress of 1934,minority of 1288 delegates voted anonymously ag Staln. He killed almot all of 1288pic.twitter.com/AM6MYeJqoF Permalink 1:42 PM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A heuristic method to price American Options, part of my deck of unpublished results @EmanuelDerman @iMetaldogpic.twitter.com/F8Epc6p5F1 Permalink 11:11 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Gave a partial answer with proof for Inverse Mills Ratio. Now need to generalize to ALL dist.http://math.stackexchange.com/q/1864278/88078?stw=2 Permalink 10:56 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 5) Ramanujan’s m.o: intuition + endless trial-and-error. Computers don’t give direct intuition, but accelerate trials, feeding intuition. Permalink 9:29 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Do you think pandits know more? #IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiots) @davidharsanyi @Trader_Moe Permalink 8:59 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 4/Mathematica is bringing back the Babylonian way of doing math. What if Ramanujan had Mathematica? @stephen_wolframpic.twitter.com/oPelrRXaNg Permalink 8:57 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb To evaluate the truthfulness of a statement requires statements of higher universality/abstraction. No “evidence” without probability theory Permalink 7:02 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Venetians were Franj but also Banadiqa (bunduqia), means also bastard or mixed parentage. Bandouq means shrewd.@FullTiltonic @holland_tom Permalink 5:57 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In Arabic Med is Ba7r Er- Rum so: Rumi= Mediterranean Christian Franji= Northern European Sqalibi= Slav Farisi= Persian @holland_tom Permalink 5:35 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Coalition is *also* killing civilians in Syria. Why don’t we call Hollande a butcher? Because no Qatari PR firm?pic.twitter.com/EsHjLL7sCw Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Delenda Monsanto est.pic.twitter.com/x0lDhvBnr8 Permalink 4:14 PM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Agamemnon entering battle in state of madness. In the Iliad, both sides, Hector & Achilles are heroes.pic.twitter.com/awDPXD9Zgc Permalink 1:19 PM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb And here the wrath of Recep, not counting the death penaltyhttps://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/755416999451320320 Permalink 10:07 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb To listen to the Wrath of Achilles son of Peleus against Agammemnon son of Atrides in Attic Greekhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_F7ZBqptugI Permalink 9:59 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Three thousand years ago, in the same location, the wrath of Achilleos … Μῆνιν ἄειδε, θεά, Πηληιάδεω Ἀχιλῆοςpic.twitter.com/weLBURfVLH Permalink 9:56 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Unsure: Some are ethnically Greek, most are mixed Phoenician-Greek-Ghassanids; same blood as Cypriots https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiochian_Greek_Christians @tri_moreta Permalink 8:40 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb [Silver rule/Ethics] I am a minority (Greek Orthdx) & as such I don’t support Erdogan. If I were Sunni, would I support him? I can’t answer. Permalink 7:49 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The war agnst ISIS showed that an airforce is almost only useful against enemy with an airforce. Even less for coups. #Turkey @yaneerbaryam Permalink 6:41 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A probability question (for those into probability)http://math.stackexchange.com/q/1864278/88078?stw=2 Permalink 6:31 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb It takes a diamond to cut a diamond @EmanuelDerman @carmi797 Permalink 6:07 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Italiano du jour: “chiodo schiaccia chiodo” @EmanuelDerman Permalink 5:05 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@RachelsNews All hands on deck ! please sign and RThttps://twitter.com/vtrighttoknow/status/755145245755580416 Permalink 7:58 PM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Policy pple @dandrezner et al. don’t realize “BS” isn’t expression of disagreement, but contempt, as w/astrologists.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/755051465719283712 Permalink 3:22 PM – 18 Jul 2016

@TalebBot We tend to define “rude” less by the words used (what is said) than by the status of the recipient (to whom it is addressed). Permalink 2:33 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Working with the nastiest of all probability distributions: Pearson family IV. Science is never closed.pic.twitter.com/GYSN5XVOot Permalink 11:52 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No, people are sensitive when they feel an ever so slight loss of privilege because of ethnicity, as in Leb/Syria. @LudWitt @joshua_landis Permalink 11:27 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For those interested in knowing why I am allergic to pol science BS entailing probabilitypic.twitter.com/YOOqh8ndlF Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb These are NOT generalizations. Disproportional power brings instability. Kapish? Only decentralization works. @joshua_landis @LudWitt Permalink 11:12 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Cycle: IRAQ: Sunni opprss Shias=>2004,Shias oprss Sunnis=>ISIS SYRIA: Sunni oprss Alawis=>Alws oprss Sunnis=>war.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/755091776738766851 Permalink 10:48 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Silver rule: I ask myself: if I were Sunni, what would make me a Salafi? 1) humiliation 2) intrusion 3) patronizing IYI. All these soluble. Permalink 8:42 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb That is not repentance. If Drezner were repentant, he would not be spewing geopolitical BS w/o #SITG. Kapish? @EmilArchambault @dandrezner Permalink 8:11 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb BS vendor Dan Drezner @dandrezner promoted Iraq war & still unrepentant. To protect society (#SITG) such pple shd Permalink 7:47 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The principle لك دينك و لي دينيhttps://twitter.com/HyperDupont/status/755036362198360064 Permalink 7:04 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 3) Hence proposed local autonomy for Islamists to be as Islamists as they want *in* their neighborhood, decentralization; they shd Amishify Permalink 6:19 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2) My impression talking to Islamists is that feel misunderstood by IYI bureaucrats, want to be left autonomous. Brcrts,talk to them. #SITG Permalink 6:11 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 1) When ISIS was still occupying parts of Tripoli, spent a day (hiding my accent) there, talking to sympathizers.pic.twitter.com/sITCpMvamY Permalink 6:09 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb One thing about Erdogan: those who like him *love* him. Like Brexiters, Islamists are those tired of the 100y patronizing secular IYI class Permalink 5:35 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Sultan played the situation like a violin Turkey government seemed to have list of arrests prepared http://reut.rs/2a4GKwA via @Reuters Permalink 5:27 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb When “short” treasuries, I had MY money on the line.Daniel Drezner the sickening man called Iraq war &paid no price for the dead @dandrezner Permalink 4:49 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@bee_starship You rock for RT this @rob_swire my family is Iraqi Shia and we cop so much crap. Know the difference people ️https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/753940487829086209 Permalink 3:50 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For the amnesiacs: in 1826 Mahmud II incited the Janissaries to revolt, to terminate them (execute & imprison them).pic.twitter.com/RSowGdkA9T Permalink 6:51 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Drezner boy: not possible to explain to bullshit vendors what is and what is not bullshit, what’s rigorous &what’s crap. Kapish? @dandrezner Permalink 3:06 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The only other explanation is that the F16 pilots were economists/social scientists, all show no go.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/754750077311352833 Permalink 12:03 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This is very, very strange: 2 rebel F16s had a lock on Erdogan’s plane but didn’t fire! Yet they bombed Parliament.https://twitter.com/ziadaboujamra/status/754730470001283073 Permalink 11:50 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Which (almost) ends a month-long tweet storm for the n-summed lognormal! It works!pic.twitter.com/SkRQb94yhg Permalink 8:09 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Respect! @Pete_Spence Permalink 7:56 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb كان لازم سعيد عقل يسميا “اللغة الشامية” مش بس اللبنانية و يتعلم السريايا http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm https://twitter.com/menleben/status/754682479051673600 Permalink 7:30 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Corrected1 Life is trial and error. @wolframpic.twitter.com/7KraMtcHPs Permalink 6:58 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Warning: there may be a problem in conversion table t2: “n” shd be inside not outside moments. @wolframpic.twitter.com/jZYlXx4ehs Permalink 6:37 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Student T is much much more civilized than the Lognormal @hbkazemi33pic.twitter.com/UetGm5tXf7 Permalink 6:32 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Paper: “preasymptotics of sums of random variables in the subexponential class”, first presented at @DrCirillo’s conference @John1ODea Permalink 6:15 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Et voila! The Lognormal is very very stubborn but the solution was simple: here it gave-in thanks to @wolframpic.twitter.com/5lv269XEB1 Permalink 6:11 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Sums of “weird” r. variables that converge slowly [LogNormal] can be ONLY be treated preasymptotically as Pearson IVpic.twitter.com/W4YpdHlAR2 Permalink 5:58 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A remark: Jay Ulfedler’s @dtchimp “mathematical model” to predict exudes, smells, reeks, of bullshit.https://twitter.com/dtchimp/status/754621708812902400 Permalink 5:32 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Leibnitz who (co)invented calculus knew only basic math bef. age of 26. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Wilhelm_Leibniz @stephen_wolframpic.twitter.com/1gfKJkXqYZ Permalink 4:32 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The weird thing about #Turkey: pro-democracy pple worldwide against coup; all Salafis pro-Isis pro-Jihad worldwide also cheering. NonKapish! Permalink 4:06 PM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Chap 1: In a dialogue with Fat Tony, he asks me: – Why did you kill me? – Just business, your FatToniness. Only bizness, nothing personal. Permalink 1:28 PM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb They want to hide something. Or they look like they are hiding something. And insult the intelligence of the publichttps://twitter.com/NonGMOProject/status/754388911921790976 Permalink 11:58 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Yesterday tried to work on SkinInTheGame. But Nice in the AM 28 Pages in PM Turkey in Eve. Only wrote chapter title: “Republic of Tawk”. Permalink 10:55 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The great sucker problem: blame the people in Soviet Russia for not being up to par, do not blame the regime.https://twitter.com/Sanelino/status/754330440056659968 Permalink 8:08 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The moral: When doing a coup in 2016 anywhere on the planet, fughedaboud local TV, occupy Twitter and Facebook headquarters in San Francisco Permalink 7:47 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb These EU empty suits just tawk. Words words words they never had a real job & think their job is a real job.https://twitter.com/eevriviades/status/754287863680929792 Permalink 5:28 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@TalebBot Most mistakes get worse when you try to correct them. Permalink 8:33 PM – 14 Jul 2016

@TalebBot The main reason to go to school is to learn *how not* to think like a professor. Permalink 8:33 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@TalebBot It is a very powerful manipulation to let others win the small battles. Permalink 2:33 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Articles with words but no information have sentences s.a.”but whoever comes out on top, democracy is sure to lose”https://twitter.com/ForeignPolicy/status/754121094844612608 Permalink 6:31 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Spreading this warning. This is common with the Syrian war.https://twitter.com/ekrispin/status/754085153778139137 Permalink 4:23 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@karimbitar The correct Lenin quote is: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”https://twitter.com/gerardaraud/status/754047290583683072 Permalink 1:45 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb On my list of things to crumble: + Saudi Barbaria [STARTED] + Bureaucristan/econ “elites” IYIs [STARTED] + Monsantohttps://twitter.com/LongShortTrader/status/754030858596646912 Permalink 12:23 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb My impression reading the #28pages is that had the info been public, we would have heard calls to invade Saudi Barbaria instead of Iraq. Permalink 11:44 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How about those who love *either* logic or *both* mathematics *and* deadlifting?https://twitter.com/thatsoftwareguy/status/754010345551847425 Permalink 11:00 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I deleted the tweet about Paris torture because the info was denied by the “Procureur General.”(chief prosecutor) Permalink 10:49 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How PsychoBS Hedgehog-fox fails: @Ptetlock “Pilot of the plane is hedgehog he is too focused on preventing crash”.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/691647327178719233 Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb People don’t know what they are talking about when they say “religion”.pic.twitter.com/dLdL6FTYnr Permalink 6:31 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The danger of Salafism is in its treatment of religion as LAW & political system. Violence is the result.https://twitter.com/yzilber/status/753942564428976128 Permalink 6:24 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Designation “Islam” is absurd; there are 3 religions. -Shia -Sunni secular, Ottoman, Sufi, urban… -Salafi/Wahabi (ISIS, Saudi Barbaria) Permalink 6:13 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb As predicted from minority rule: GMOs going extinct, sales contracting. Paying Farmers to Go Organic Inhttp://nyti.ms/29HXafa Permalink 6:05 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Problem is religions are not banned. If Nazism is banned, Salafism/Wahabism must be banned. Shut down Saudi Arabia.https://twitter.com/swensn/status/753933839521558528 Permalink 5:48 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Anyone proGMOs on “scientific” grounds is 50y behind,ignorant of complexity, or just stupid https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/photos/a.10150109720973375.279515.13012333374/10153978116453375/?type=3&theater pic.twitter.com/GFLabc93af Permalink 5:43 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@Konstant_V @nntaleb next time anyone asks why #Nice happened I will show him this:http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/07/15/saudi-funded-mosque-opened-nice-two-weeks-attack/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social Permalink 5:36 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Salafi Mosques are the root. Since 2001 the idiotic West let Saudi “allies” keep spreading Salafism. Destroy Riad.https://twitter.com/hbkazemi33/status/753920423557992448 Permalink 4:56 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Revisiting Popper’s (Goedel’s) paradox: Why Salafis should be confined just for being Salafis. Delenda Saudi Arabia.pic.twitter.com/aqCmLxet5c Permalink 4:50 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Salafi is Salafi is Salafi, no nuance. Salafi is inherently violent terrorism. Those who promote Salafism are guiltyhttps://twitter.com/JustinRaimondo/status/753780246055268352 Permalink 4:20 AM – 15 Jul 2016

GMOs, Monsanto, Ramanujan, Philip Tetlock, Max Abrahms, Golden Rice, Blair, Preasymtotics, John Gray, Brexit

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@EcoWatch #Obama Expected to Sign Industry-Backed #GMO Label Bill Into Law http://rbl.ms/29FKHvt @nongmoreport @foodandwater @OrganicConsumer @EWG Permalink 8:45 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@mjd1735 @ziadaboujamra @nntaleb @herrlichmann @AmbJohnBolton @zbig @SonyKapoor @EliLake @ishaantharoor Probability Question:pic.twitter.com/fniXcZysLF Permalink 4:41 PM – 14 Jul 2016

@yaneerbaryam Regulatory capture overriding Vermont GMO labeling bill: Why Activists Are Unhappy With New GMO Labeling Legislationhttp://ti.me/2adnKLH Permalink 12:32 PM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Moving stuff to http://Academia.edu The Skin In The Game Heuristic for Protection Against Tail Eventshttps://www.academia.edu/26989481/The_Skin_In_The_Game_Heuristic_for_Protection_Against_Tail_Events?s=t Permalink 11:55 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@rahul_goa @nntaleb @vivakermani @normonics @yaneerbaryam Have annotated your image to show the ‘fundamental difference’ riskpic.twitter.com/wMDBbvEhKX Permalink 8:48 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Monsanto pulled no stop trying to discredit me: 1000 mails to Univ (!),>1000 shill posts. Nada. F***you money works.https://twitter.com/KenMcCarthy/status/753583908508278784 Permalink 6:44 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Compare shrinking sales of Monsanto GMOs to organic. Explains the HUGE lobby effort/shilling for GMOs.pic.twitter.com/wYdLcDhezw Permalink 6:10 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb GMO issue is ignorance of the properties of complex systems/fattails (Monsanto’s 107 Nobels, 80y.o. are 50 y behind)https://twitter.com/trisweb/status/753574340168388608 Permalink 6:04 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Some new proofs for preasymptotic behavior of exponential distribution and subexponential class.pic.twitter.com/F57u7IWH2J Permalink 5:43 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For an idea of what’s expected frm technology/”growth” biz, look at AMZN vs MON. GMOs are in decline,organic growingpic.twitter.com/5oUyERBzav Permalink 4:53 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Good news re GMOs: I’ve never seen a real technology SHRINK yet survive, in spite of intense lobbying/shilling. Why Monsanto needs buyer. Permalink 4:39 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Bottom:Monsanto is a sick company,sales <2010,hence active GMO shilling w/Henry I Miller etc http://usrtk.org/hall-of-shame/why-you-cant-trust-henry-miller-on-gmos/ pic.twitter.com/cl6iDsZEBG Permalink 4:32 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Point: except for Mishnah Torah Maimonides wrote his major work in Arabic aiming at Islamic/Abrahamic readers @yzilber @HannahHedgehog Permalink 7:10 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb If OBD- Y… Or explicit Abd-Allah is so common in Semitic & preIslamic cultures it has to hark back to OVD-EL @amaatouq @kaplanfat Permalink 7:06 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Also Abdallah was translated into latin as Amadeus and Gr as Theophilos @amaatouq @kaplanfat Permalink 6:51 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb .@amaatouq @kaplanfat I read Islamic commentaries of Dalat al Ha2rin (perplexed) he was allowed to make pronouncements on Islamic law. Permalink 6:43 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Abdallah is a pre-Islamic name. Evidence is easy: guess.https://twitter.com/kaplanfat/status/753398371390545920 Permalink 6:21 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Abdallah was common among Iraqi Jews it is Obadiah @HannahHedgehog Permalink 6:10 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Was surprised to see Ibn Abdallah in Maimonides name http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Maimonides Permalink 5:30 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Maimonides name is Ibn Abdallah. Permalink 5:25 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The tiniest accolade from a classicist & erudite like @ArmandDAngour is worth >>> any compliment/prize/praisebyjourno etc. Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The strategy for meal-debates is to order mezze style so you can eat other’s food (frog legs) as they are fighting.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/752307005331742720 Permalink 5:24 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 1) Do not read books on time management/MBAbullshit 2) Do nothing that bores you & stop before something gets dullhttps://twitter.com/pdanielcabral/status/753195514376564737 Permalink 5:05 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb And sources for dabbaq in Arabic are scant; suspected Syriac origin http://www.baheth.info/all.jsp?term= دبقpic.twitter.com/4rFAEEA5f1 Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Extension: dabba2, “sticky fingers” prob. comes from same root DBS, with corruption of SH =>Aleph Permalink 4:48 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Syrup itself in English, like “sorbet” coming probably from “SRB” to drink (Shurba) [an iced fruit cocoction] @ArmandDAngour Permalink 4:45 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In other words DBS= glue, applies to both syrup and honey @ArmandDAngour Permalink 4:44 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Levantine roots du jour: 3asal=honey from Arabic 3asal, debs=syrup from Aramaic honey & syrup. (in Heb honey=DBSH)pic.twitter.com/gNeNVxFdbA Permalink 4:43 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How GMOs are a fundamentally different process than other modifications, no track record. @normonics @yaneerbaryampic.twitter.com/9mo914nEan Permalink 4:07 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Continued: “For Ramanujan proofs were some strange European custom…”pic.twitter.com/k6PR0JE5Bk Permalink 6:30 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Great book; Ramanujan is a “mathematical tinkerer” vs Hardy who worked from rulebook. Invites tinkering on Mathematica @stephen_wolfram Permalink 6:20 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Excellent! Only read on mathematicians by insiders.”Math=Youth”disappears when adjtd by life expect @stephen_wolframpic.twitter.com/52AzjK5asR Permalink 6:11 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The dialogue worked as when we switched to the solution, everyone was in agreement:decentralization @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus @yaneerbaryam Permalink 5:54 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For the record, for personal ethics, I do not comment abt @PTetlock’s works, etc; I only respond to psychobullshit about my own work. Permalink 3:10 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Here is paper, MrTetlock stop your psyshoBS show where explicit before Peters/Gell-mann https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/752832543158833156 Permalink 2:58 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Stop the bullshit: These are NOT counterexamples. Show me a SINGLE social paper that accounts for time prob problem.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/752832543158833156 Permalink 2:55 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Nice convergence of ideas on decentralization! Dialogue works! @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus @yaneerbaryam Permalink 8:44 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Evidence that @Confusezeus is getting Salafi funding!https://twitter.com/habibahamid/status/752874960780230656 Permalink 7:52 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Cambridge Debate @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus @yaneerbaryampic.twitter.com/UPnQtnkZvr Permalink 7:42 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I am witnessing a bitter fight between @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus over ISIS/IRGC on a cafe terrace in Cambridge with @yaneerbaryam laughing. Permalink 7:35 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@MaxAbrahms @nntaleb @Confusezeus Apologists want people to think ISIS is defensive, not predatory. But ISIS wants to strike every country in the world. Permalink 5:44 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb ISIS apologists are never explicit; they say” ISIS is bad.. but” & offer some comparison @Confusezeus @MaxAbrahms Permalink 5:13 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Outside of Kelly criterion (still implicit) finance profs make ergodicity mistake. @yzilber @PTetlock @LionsWatson @pale_blue_dot__ Permalink 5:09 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb ISIS apologists keep pouding “comparative” arguments (Crusades, IRGC, Pilgrims, Assad) –typically as here, lame. @Confusezeus @MaxAbrahms Permalink 5:08 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This is to debunk the BS: ALL social science/decision theory is missing the point. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-05-12/nassim-taleb-on-the-importance-of-probability @PTetlock Permalink 4:45 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The point is that you cannot naively use probability for gambles @ardalby @PTetlock Permalink 4:44 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb And here is our revision to reflect Peters & Gell-Mann https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf @a_random_otter @PTetlock Permalink 4:43 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Not at all. First result (Other than ours) was shown in Gell-Mann Peters https://publishing.aip.org/publishing/journal-highlights/exploring-gambles-reveals-foundational-difficulty-behind-economic @a_random_otter @PTetlock Permalink 4:40 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Show ONE paper in social science identifying ergodicity. ONE. @PTetlock Permalink 4:34 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The #DNDL category is just a fuzzy marker. But deadlifting is a state of mind.https://twitter.com/MDiPaolaMD/status/752653334293647360 Permalink 6:14 PM – 11 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Séralini case is an interesting way to learn about smear campaign. Meanwhile we are finishing the PP paper.https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/752523326036250624 Permalink 3:12 PM – 11 Jul 2016

@caitlinrgreen Thanet, Tanit & the Phoenicians: Names, Archaeology & Pre-Roman Trading Settlements in Kent? http://www.caitlingreen.org/2015/04/thanet-tanit-and-the-phoenicians.html pic.twitter.com/Npezp0bx9f Permalink 2:17 AM – 21 Apr 2015

@nntaleb Never argue with people in private (you will not convince them); argue in public to convince others. Permalink 10:31 AM – 11 Jul 2016

@MohsenGTW @Confusezeus does IRGC consider Sunnis apostates or enslave people? Do you read Persian? Do you have a brain? @nntaleb @MaxAbrahms Permalink 6:42 AM – 11 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Max’s argument: whatever detractors call a “Shia threat” is 100% local. Salafis have global aims (NY, Paris…) @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus Permalink 6:40 AM – 11 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Nadim is v. open to both discussions & frog legs. 2 more trips to Boston Max & I will change his position @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus Permalink 5:42 AM – 11 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Nadim, a Christian Lebanese & Saudi Barbaria apologist, has the Stockholm syndrome common to many Lebs in policy. @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus Permalink 6:30 PM – 10 Jul 2016

@nntaleb So far Nadim has not been able to bring any logical or empirical argument against Max. I am just eating frog legs. @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus Permalink 6:24 PM – 10 Jul 2016

@nntaleb With @MaxAbrahms in a heated debate with Nadim Shehadi @Confusezeus who sides with Saudi Barbaria. (Frog legs)pic.twitter.com/5mJLrTOS0P Permalink 6:02 PM – 10 Jul 2016

@nntaleb With @MaxAbrahms in a heated debate with Nadim Shehadi @Confusezeus who sides with Saudi Barbaria. (Frog legs)pic.twitter.com/woFBtaorE1 Permalink 6:02 PM – 10 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Finally, instead of driving to Boston, forgot about time, and proved the Lognormal convergence theorems!pic.twitter.com/rcGlVOpPZ1 Permalink 7:15 AM – 10 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Try the Inequalities cheat cheat @neilchriss http://www.lkozma.net/inequalities_cheat_sheet/ineq.pdf Permalink 4:18 AM – 10 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Inverse Touring Test: The more you can be computerized, the less human you are.https://twitter.com/juliaclavien/status/751534001156984834 Permalink 3:55 AM – 10 Jul 2016

@kylef 500kg deadlift. Eddie Hall trying to Make Britain Great Againhttps://youtu.be/T9Y4o_BqC0A Permalink 5:27 PM – 9 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Semiticology dujour: Semitic lang,unlike most Indo-Euro, have “day” (YWM) for 24 h &different “day” for the diurnal.pic.twitter.com/n8Mrdm9Vpc Permalink 7:00 AM – 9 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Define “nitpicking”https://twitter.com/Marina_the_Th/status/751772227532619776 Permalink 6:44 AM – 9 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A “nice person” is someone principally nice to those he/she doesn’t need to be nice to. #DailyEthics #Shillary Permalink 6:36 AM – 9 Jul 2016

@nntaleb At the core, with EU, people conflated 1) coordination of common (local) interests with 2) subjugation to a central authority Permalink 4:58 AM – 9 Jul 2016

@nntaleb More on Influences of Semitic roots in Egyptian language; pre-Islamic pre-Arabic https://books.google.com/books?id=GkcABAAAQBAJ&pg=PA540&dq=tlb+semitic&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjq7qCtp-bNAhUEcz4KHZo8A-sQ6AEISDAI#v=onepage&q&f=false @lameensouag Permalink 4:50 AM – 9 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Hawn http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm https://twitter.com/mhmalek/status/751525386589237248 Permalink 2:49 PM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Sakker shebbak w’ttala3 la barra” Levantine &~Aramaic. “Iqful el nafizah wa inthur ilal 5arij” Arabic. Rquires a mental defect to not see. Permalink 12:29 PM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The plot thickens. As***le. [2 words] “Bu5sh Tizo” Levantine “Bu5sh Tizo” Aramaic “Thaqb Iliatihi” Arabicpic.twitter.com/JJ2ZJzEhhe Permalink 12:20 PM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Zammar 3a l’kou3” Levantine “Zammar 3a l’kou3” Aramaic “Inshud 3al mun3atif” Arabic One has to be blind to not seepic.twitter.com/d8HiWiQwmN Permalink 12:11 PM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Public sector work should not be an investment strategy. @AustinGreenpic.twitter.com/fVqdqYp3Xv Permalink 12:08 PM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Single most potent arg. agst Centralized EU bureaucratistan: will be eventually owned by Goldman Sacks & Monsanto.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/751481083309486080 Permalink 11:36 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb It reeks of something all across. Read the paper [ASSUMING YOU TRUST RESULTS], read my p-value paper, let’s talk. @ryanbriggs Permalink 8:38 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The problem of Golden rice is side effects on system. Never take risks you don’t understand if you can do as well w/those you do. @raphaels7 Permalink 8:09 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Hahahaha! “β-Carotene in Golden Rice is as good as β-carotene in oil at providing vitamin A to children” RETRACTED http://retractionwatch.com/2015/07/30/golden-rice-paper-pulled-after-judge-rules-for-journal/ Permalink 7:41 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In Antifragile & ALL socsci misses ergodicity/tails https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf @LionsWatson @pale_blue_dot__ @PTetlockpic.twitter.com/yP65WqHtLB Permalink 5:35 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Adding tutorials to lectures: Probability & Integral Transforms. Sense the shape of the distribution from its dual.pic.twitter.com/cqaLizQKwT Permalink 4:56 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 62 out of 63 finance/econ academics who traded engaged in tail selling strategies (a la LTCM )>> practitioners. @pale_blue_dot__ @PTetlock Permalink 4:07 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiot) post has been read by 1.6 mil across social media. Bypass established IYI media!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/746879505659207680 Permalink 4:13 PM – 7 Jul 2016

@PaleoPhil @catsdad101 @nntaleb “Some people invoke “the naturalistic fallacy,” a philosophical concept that is limited to the moral domain.” -NNT 2014 Permalink 3:06 PM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Next week in Boston w/@yaneerbaryam revising PP, adding computational complexity /NP. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html pic.twitter.com/NZJndoarIS Permalink 12:26 PM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Someone wrote a more polite critique of that ignorant #neiltyson idea of Rationalia.http://bit.ly/29baqdS Permalink 12:13 PM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The InverseExpert is part of SKIN IN THE GAME. The problem is that, without SITG, inverse experts dominate.https://twitter.com/billpowers1970/status/751106877396746240 Permalink 10:34 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Food Corp. (incl. Evil Monsanto) are scared of the minority rule. But they’ve lost anyway. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/751063380081905664 Permalink 10:32 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Expert: knows stuff NonExpert: me on Turkish grammar InverseExpert: Do oppositel; Brusselcrats, Sunstein,Stiglitz,Thaler,Merton,Scholes,etc. Permalink 10:27 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Those who think Levantine is a “dialect”of Arabic don’t know Aramaic/Semitic lang http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm @HouariBdz @abisinello @LinaArabii Permalink 9:50 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb عيد فطر مبارك. ينعاد عليكم بدوام الصحة و العافية. Permalink 9:17 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@abisinello Lebanese risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb vs Garry Kasparov on military interventions in the Middle East.pic.twitter.com/SNSxSC7dt1 Permalink 1:57 PM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Another explanation of Scale Dependent Properties: Some may believe *armies create wars* but nobody sane believes *police create robberies*. Permalink 8:20 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Scientism of the idiot” (GMO #neiltyson): belief that one should replace a natural hand with an artificial one to satisfy “sc. progress” Permalink 7:31 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Pinker’s book relies on a lot of words that hide absence of a CENTRAL detail. @DrCirillo @JonathanWaxman1pic.twitter.com/lOLqybUVjA Permalink 6:23 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Statistical science (via prob theo) sets naturally the limits of statistical science. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1691165&download=yes @psybertron @JonathanWaxman1 Permalink 5:51 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Problem with Pinker boy is that he made statistical claims without knowing what he is talking about. @JonathanWaxman1 Permalink 5:44 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb All cheap tawk. Blair should be forced to live the rest of his life in Bagdad/Mosul, or Raqqah. #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/TheGreenParty/status/750642762203009024 Permalink 5:42 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb What are the odds that someone expressing distress at the “choice” w/ the two presidential candidates (who will vote) would vote Trump? Permalink 5:40 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Economics/philosopy prof does not count as “proper job”. Actually, reverse. Kapish? @miamoisio @JonathanWaxman1 @_Foolosophy_ @Nigel_Farage Permalink 5:33 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@food_democracy These brave Senators stood w/ the American public over backroom deals to label GMOs! http://bit.ly/29p69Ra #Heroespic.twitter.com/DN8Badw8wA Permalink 7:16 PM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Delenda est Monsanto; […] Ceterum, censeo … Delenda Monsanto esthttps://twitter.com/NonGMOProject/status/750802613071863809 Permalink 2:37 PM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb When I saw @Nigel_Farage telling the empty suits in Brussels “none of you had a proper job”, I knew he had been a trader. Turned out he was. Permalink 2:19 PM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Similarly: Nobody should ever hold office unless he/she had a “proper job” (outside politics/tawking) for at least 10 years and 3 months. Permalink 2:13 PM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb With funding cuts as w/fall of Soviet Union, academics are laid off. What will an academic economist be used for? Permalink 12:23 PM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Q: How many of the IYI who think Brexit is “irrational” + Thought Iraq was a good idea + Think GMOs are safe, “science” not scientism Permalink 10:52 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb So you think you understand enough of the workings of the world to pronounce pro-Brexit as “stupid”? I hold the exact opposite. @ianbremmer Permalink 10:27 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How to purify academic research from BS, remove the ritualistic game, make it real. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153956847823375 pic.twitter.com/GAYiDrRmZn Permalink 7:19 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Son grand theme est le déclin de l’universitaire médiéval au profit de l’intellectuel humaniste. @OHSAISONS @AlexDroite Permalink 5:36 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For researchers, a day job should be mandatory: Patent clerc Lensmaker Rentier Country priest Postman Mafia operative Trader @AlexDroite Permalink 4:54 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In Academia, abt everyone, individually,knows 99% of research are substance-free ritualistic BS but,collectively,behaves as if it weren’t so Permalink 4:51 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Le Goff despised academia; praised research by nonteachers. @AlexDroitepic.twitter.com/aQm9rMlcxD Permalink 4:36 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Uploaded ‘The Decline of Violent Conflicts: What Do The Data Really Say’ [debunking Pinker BS]http://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say Permalink 4:31 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@jeorgen Taleb keeps bringing down the modernist project. The high priests of scientism (not real science) need to be exposedhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/750488970425954304 Permalink 1:44 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The answer is: no.https://twitter.com/bonnicit/status/750518265043161088 Permalink 7:52 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I worked 21y full-time in a highly stressful job, researched, studied & wrote 3 books at night. I have NO sympathy for entitlement-academia. Permalink 6:26 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Brilliant, citable: “a set of fixed rituals around grant proposals” Saifedean Ammous @saifedean Permalink 6:20 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb If you have to be told how to do research, don’t do research. @BeOpsguy Permalink 6:06 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The results that came from industry yet misappropriated by academic PR machine “lecturing birds how to fly”.pic.twitter.com/DiDe3FaSig Permalink 5:38 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The main result of Borel was published in obscure “Palermo math circle” “Rendiconti del Circolo Matematico di Palermo” @neilchriss Permalink 5:30 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@_jmgomez_ @pasku1 I prefer the other one from @nntaleb,”Academia is to knowledge what prostitution is to love;the surface but,to the nonsucker,not…” Permalink 5:14 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@habibh Lebanese Entrepreneurs Are Coming Home, and Bringing Billions http://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/lebanese-entrepreneurs-are-coming-home-and-bringing-billions/70407#.V3ufGzir2jQ.twitter via @ozy Permalink 4:51 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No. 2 chapters in #Antifragile. Academ produced << than industry/freelance in spite of resources; good PR machine.https://twitter.com/albertop78/status/750451396877615105 Permalink 3:20 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I know a few people who published several hundred papers without saying anything. Academia shd focus on education; decommoditize research. Permalink 1:32 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb You “need” academia to do research about as much as you “need” a tractor to tour New York City.pic.twitter.com/1c5plbZhcO Permalink 12:46 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ad Hominem is legit if the record links to the opinion (SITG). Don’t ask a blown up trader to evaluate tail risk.https://twitter.com/InjuredThales/status/750402931719958528 Permalink 12:05 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The only reason we don’t see the difficulties of the Lognormal is because finance pple work w/daily sig=.005-.01; things blow up at sig >1. Permalink 10:43 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Joining Academia to do research is like joining the mafia to learn Italian. Permalink 9:16 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@FrankQuattrone Says the man who once indicted me over a 23-word email that encouraged my team to save subpoenaed documentshttps://twitter.com/recode/status/750349802269990912 Permalink 8:31 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb It IS ad hominem: Nobelled supporting GMOs w/sole backup their “credibility”, not derivations. Hence EXPERTISE is fair game @ademarcisnegro Permalink 8:51 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Nobel laureate GMO promoter presided over firm that lost billions http://www.gmwatch.org/news/latest-news/17091-nobel-laureate-who-signed-letter-promoting-gmos-presided-over-firm-that-lost-billions Permalink 8:19 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@tparsi Stunning piece on how Saudi/Qatari funded mosques are spreading Salafism and secterianism in Swedish (!) suburbs… http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/longread/utanforskapet-inifran/har-i-orebro-vill-jag-rycka-tag-i-barnen-och-saga-ingen-mer-ska-till-paradiset/ Permalink 10:09 PM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Lognormal is hardest of distributions in preasymtotics: sums behave erratically; no MGF/CHF. Back to stand up desk.pic.twitter.com/qByDXtg2xk Permalink 6:50 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The last step in the 3000 year Semitic convergence to pure, abstract, obsessive & uncompromising monotheism.https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/750282289519538176 Permalink 6:17 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison, warmonger WikiLeaks Releases Over 1,000 Clinton Iraq War Emails – Breitbarthttp://bit.ly/29hg7rC Permalink 6:52 PM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb QUESTION 1:What are the animals that don’t appear to age & what is their life expectancy? QUESTION 2:Are there human organs that don’t age? Permalink 1:07 PM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb ANSWER: Life expect. wld be, at 0,50,100, 1000 ~1/p ( p is fatal accident rate). (But human race wd go extinct, as no evol. if env. changes) Permalink 12:10 PM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Capicoli pronounced “Gabagool” @pwalnuts1156 @CGasparino @EmanuelDerman @mndl_nyc Permalink 7:20 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, “criticism” is something specific (e.g. “Theorem x is wrong”) or backed-up not drunken BS spouted in a bar. @PieterDuboisFI Permalink 7:17 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Sicilian is so different from Tuscan that for a long time Cavour thought that Sicilians were still speaking Arabic. @EmanuelDerman Permalink 7:12 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 1/2 Not “Italian”: Sicilian & Calabrese (“Kalabez”), don’t pronounce the last vowel a la Tuscan. Also “Gabish”. @EmanuelDerman @mndl_nyc Permalink 7:09 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb People think in sub-log scale. For the crowds, 350 billion and 350 millions aren’t too different. @diomavro @vaLondon @kateantiquity Permalink 6:32 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb There is a minority of trolls on the web (<1% trolling 95%). Shut them down & life gets much much better http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html @mndl_nyc Permalink 6:25 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb You are not Kapishing the problem. There are disagreements, & there is trolling. Latter is unconditional to content. @mndl_nyc Permalink 6:23 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb You need to shut down EU (made in linear 50s-70s) & rebuild a la CHF in accordance w/logic of complex systems. @kateantiquity @James_Raynard Permalink 6:19 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Methodology with twitter: Typical troll by BS-vendors (doesn’t show *where* wrong). Block him and ALL his followers.pic.twitter.com/5qG0cKgECR Permalink 6:04 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Don’t look for proximate cause: You can’t have 1)voting rights, 2)social media, and 3)patronizing elite at once @kateantiquity Permalink 5:22 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb P-VALUES: Added a paper on http://Academia.edu : why p-values are BS/cannot be used for risk analyses.https://www.academia.edu/26704758/The_Meta-Distribution_of_Standard_P-Values Permalink 5:15 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Great John Gray on Brexit:pic.twitter.com/M1vTHrxYxT Permalink 4:57 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I thought I did with Antifragile and this paper https://www.academia.edu/26660005/_Anti_Fragility_and_Convex_Responses_in_Medicine https://twitter.com/KDHabibi/status/749726795931521028 Permalink 4:31 PM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The view of a complex system from a complex system science vantage point is different. Learn fron @yaneerbaryam !https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/749711891300220928 Permalink 2:24 PM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb QUIZ du jour: If humans didn’t age, how long would they live? What would their life expectancy be at 100 compared to that at 50? Permalink 11:44 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In SILENT RISK:Anyone who utters expr. “Knightian Risk” or distinguishes betw “risk” & “uncertainty” is incompetent:pic.twitter.com/9OYfeaBis2 Permalink 10:36 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Changing SILENT RISK from 1 column book size to 2 columns 8 1/2 by 1.pic.twitter.com/wvKQnw9L5F Permalink 9:59 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@GhassanDahhan Sure! Just like those jihadis from France, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Canada, The Netherlands, Luxembourg & Finland.https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/749102157543026692 Permalink 9:22 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Wittgenstein. He is the one who understood why religious beliefs should not be analyzed. @hamandcheese @ChrisSpoke @Chris_arnade Permalink 9:12 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Even more weirdness on the part of the Lognormalpic.twitter.com/Tv1qXTQgoi Permalink 7:47 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Single account is easiest…But some people are annoyed by heavy math, others love it. Everyone loves beating on @JustinWolfers @mjd1735 Permalink 7:34 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Another way to check the weird fat-tailedness of the Lognormal.pic.twitter.com/ZaGsczMyq8 Permalink 7:30 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Twitter activities: + Busting BS vendors + Fighting evil firms (eg Monsanto) + Philology + Math/prob + Squid ink Permalink 7:09 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb NYU human resources, dean, secretary, everyone was swamped with emails. @mjd1735 @carolhoernlein @AndreaSaltelli @philipbstark Permalink 7:00 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Same Monsanto’s PR firm as the 107 Nobels send>1500 emails to NYU pathologizing my GMO stance @carolhoernlein @AndreaSaltelli @philipbstark Permalink 6:57 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Squid ink with wine from Puglia, the crypto-Byzantine region of Italy. @joe54stpic.twitter.com/LcgMsyv2do Permalink 5:50 PM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The imbecile didn’t read proof that PROBABILISTIC cost/benefit fails under systemic ruin. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf https://twitter.com/FabiusMaximus01/status/749354418647080960 Permalink 2:32 PM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Another one who doesn’t deadlift.https://twitter.com/rgncny/status/748906900738244608 Permalink 2:10 PM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Thing I learned today: Lognormal with high sigma (>=4) behaves in convergence ~ like Cauchy, slow for v. large sums.pic.twitter.com/jaWM1gnrgZ Permalink 2:06 PM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Zaki is also Aramaic (“Bass” interesting bec. from Persian=>Hindi) All Expression Zaki Bass 7mar Aramaic. @Jaguitapic.twitter.com/eVPwQDHsAi Permalink 1:40 PM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb IYI (Intellectual yet Idiot) from Levantine “Zaki bass 7mar” (“bass” is Aramaic from Md. Pers.);corresponds to Mod. Hebrew חמור נושא ספרים Permalink 12:15 PM – 2 Jul 2016

@tparsi This image by Saudi embassy needs to include data on the number of Salafi terrorists Saudi has funded & created…https://twitter.com/SaudiEmbassyUSA/status/748512242627411968 Permalink 11:48 AM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I’d take any minute the decision of an imbecile over that of an educated imbecile.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/749259342617214976 Permalink 8:29 AM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb My belief: “tawkers” are a bunch of nerds ignorant of complexity of systems, can’t find a coconut in Coconut island.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/749208168081784832 Permalink 8:12 AM – 2 Jul 2016

@DrCirillo If you kill variability, you kill selection. If you kill selection, you kill the markets. Permalink 6:05 AM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Wittgenstein’s ruler: Either “talkers”are smart & voters are indeed stupid, or Voters are smart & tawkers are stupidhttps://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/749206679577911296 Permalink 4:48 AM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Our GMO discussion: The Precautionary Principle page http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html pic.twitter.com/EXphyFiBlT Permalink 4:44 AM – 2 Jul 2016

@SPWinterstein @nntaleb this boils down the problem in “John hit the ball” language that even I can understand. Elegant and true.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/749041745661403136 Permalink 7:36 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The #Brexit rebellion against “experts”: it is easier to macrobullshit than microbullshit. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153947005293375 pic.twitter.com/XeJ6l7hHzK Permalink 5:47 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Trying http://Academia.edu (Anti)Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicinehttps://www.academia.edu/26660005/_Anti_Fragility_and_Convex_Responses_in_Medicine?s=t Permalink 5:10 PM – 1 Jul 2016

Macrobullshit, Monsanto, IYI, Metrification, VIOLENCE, GAWKER, The New Artisan | Facebook

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The rebellion against the “experts” that we are witnessing can be simplified: experts in some domains like economics, political science, policymaking are not experts. But we know why:

PRINCIPLE: it is easier to macrobullshit than microbullshit.

So your car mechanic, sushi chef, house painter, espresso machine repairperson, plumber, barber, dentist, Apple genius bar attendant, sanitation engineer, translator of Greco-Aramaic texts, guitar player, …, these are, to some degree, experts.

Mixing this with the concept of skin-in-the-game and the idea of complexity, we can build political structures that are immune to expert problems. 7/1/16

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So it looks like Monsanto and peers were behind getting 107 Nobels to sign a petition asking Greenpeace to stop blocking Golden Rice. Obviously, science doesn’t work by authority (particularly when one of them has a Nobel in literature, a few in peace, etc.)

But the problem is that it may be about authority–in reverse. The ONLY one of the august people who ever had anything to do with risk was Robert Merton from the blown up firm LTCM who deemed such risk to be in the order of 1 in many trillions (see my books for his description as perfectly Black Swan blind). They picked the wrong PR firm.

The broader problem is that a typical aged Nobel today is someone who had his formative work in the 60s, 70s, maybe 80s, and (unless he is Murray Gell-Mann) clueless about complexity and the difficulty in interractions. And not one has done a day’s work or engaged in real world activity to have the presence of mind to verify the track record of golden rice, or realize that hunger is a problem of DISTRIBUTION not technology –you don’t advocate risky brain surgery when a good night rest could do –primum non nocere. Likewise better give people rice + vitamin rather than open the Frankenbox to fatten the pockets of Biotech.

We throw away one third of our food. Find a Nobel Prize in food distribution. 7/1/16

107 Nobel Laureate Attack on Greenpeace Traced Back to Biotech PR Operators

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What’s a IYI?

Intellectual Yet Idiot: semi-erudite bureaucrat who thinks he is an erudite; pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand not realizing it is his understanding that may be limited; imparts normative ideas to others: thinks people should act according to their best interests *and* he knows their interests, particularly if they are uneducated “red necks” or English non-crisp-vowel class.

More socially: subscribes to the New Yorker; never curses on twitter; speaks of “equality of races” and “economic equality” but never went out drinking with a minority cab driver; has considered voting for Tony Blair; has attended more than 1 TEDx talks and watched more than 2 TED talks; will vote for Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison because she seems electable; has The Black Swan on his shelves but mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence; is member of a club to get traveling privileges; if social scientist uses statistics without knowing how they are derived; when in the UK goes to literary festivals; drinks red wine with steak (never white); used to believe that fat was harmful and has now completely reversed; takes statins because his doctor told him so; fails to understand ergodicity and when explained forgets about it soon later; doesn’t use Yiddish words; studies grammar before speaking a language; has a cousin who worked with someone who knows the Queen; has never read Frederic Dard, Michael Oakeshot, John Gray, or Joseph De Maistre; has never gotten drunk with Russians and went breaking glasses; doesn’t know the difference between Hecate and Hecuba; doesn’t know that there is no difference between “pseudointellectual” and “intellectual”; has mentioned quantum mechanics at least twice in the past 5 years; knows at any point in time what his words or actions are doing to his reputation.

But a much easier marker: doesn’t deadlift. 6/25/16

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IN ANTIFRAGILE: On How Some IYI Intellectual-Yet-Imbecile in Brussels would try to regulate how people should “unify” metrics.
—-
Warwick Cairns, a fellow similar to Jane Jacobs, has been fighting in courts to let market farmers in Britain keep selling bananas by the pound, and similar matters as they have resisted the use of the more “rational” kilogram. The idea of metrification was born out of the French Revolution, as part of the utopian mood, which includes changing the names of the winter months to Nivôse, Pluviôse, Ventôse, descriptive of weather, having decimal time, ten-day weeks, and similar naively rational matters. Luckily the project of changing time has failed. However, after re- peated failures, the metric system was implemented there—but the old system has remained refractory in the United States and England. The French writer Edmond About, who visited Greece in 1832, a dozen years after its independence, reports how peasants struggled with the metric system as it was completely unnatural to them and stuck to Ottoman standards instead. (Likewise, the “modernization” of the Arabic alpha- bet from the easy-to-memorize old Semitic sequence made to sound like words, ABJAD, HAWWAZ, to the logical sequence A-B-T-TH has cre- ated a generation of Arabic speakers without the ability to recite their alphabet.)

But few realize that naturally born weights have a logic to them: we use feet, miles, pounds, inches, furlongs, stones (in Britain) because these are remarkably intuitive and we can use them with a minimal expendi- ture of cognitive effort—and all cultures seem to have similar measure- ments with some physical correspondence to the everyday. A meter does not match anything; a foot does. I can imagine the meaning of “thirty feet” with minimal effort. A mile, from the Latin milia passum, is a thousand paces. Likewise a stone (14 pounds) corresponds to . . . well, a stone. An inch (or pouce) corresponds to a thumb. A furlong is the distance one can sprint before running out of breath. A pound, from libra, is what you can imagine holding in your hands. Recall from the story of Thales in Chapter 12 that we used thekel or shekel: these mean “weight” in Canaanite-Semitic languages, something with a physical connotation, similar to the pound. There is a certain nonrandomness to how these units came to be in an ancestral environment—and the digital system itself comes from the correspondence to the ten fingers.

As I am writing these lines, no doubt, some European Union official
of the type who eats 200 grams of well-cooked meat with 200 centiliters’ worth of red wine every day for dinner (the optimal quantity for his health benefits) is concocting plans to promote the “efficiency” of the metric system deep into the countryside of the member countries. 6/25/16

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THE THESIS ON VIOLENCE

The Nobel Symposium is a 3d retreat that takes place in Norway every 2 years, for the President of the Nobel Peace Prize Committee, the secretary of the Prize, a few out of the 5 committee members and 20 scholars. I presented the paper on violence (the translation into English of our technical paper). Bear Braumoeller presented another one similarly critical of Pinker. After our session, the audience was split into:
1) Those who thought that Pinker was wrong
2) Those who thought that Pinker was not even wrong (i.e. not worth discussing).
And the agreement was to not talk about his thesis any further. Further, the organizer was told by Pinker that he did not wish to rebut our papers.

Our Non-technical paper:
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/violencenobelsymposium.pdf

Pinker builds his thesis on works by Richardson in a way that is NOT compatible with the way Richardson [which is compatible with our result] and without showing the derivations. This it turned out is a CRITICAL flaw. Words and words and the central point is pulled out of nowhere.

In our paper: “As we also find out in our data analysis, consistent with Richardson (1960), there is no sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis of a homogenous Poisson process, which denies the presence of any trend in the belligerence of humanity. Nevertheless, Pinker refers to some yet-unspecified mathematical model that could also support such a decline in violence, what he calls a “nonstationary” process, even if data look the way they look.” 6/22/16

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ANTIFRAGILE
The marker of the character of a person, detectable from childhood, is whether they generalize from local disagreements to other traits when they get upset. Example from real life (told by a Colombian Jew): children are playing, a small dispute erupts over something, one turns antisemitic: “you are a Jew”, throwing all what he can at the other kid. The kid did not change ethnicity during the dispute; being a Jew was not bothersome to the Catholic kid before; it is just meant for the upset party to use all possible weapons. This is why lurking prejudice is bad because it doesn’t show up on sunny days –when scapegoats are needed.

And one doesn’t have to bring ethnicity; any trait such such as “it is well known that you have a reputation of…”, anything meant to demean the person, an information that was not brought up before, only brought during the dispute.

Which is why it is a good idea to upset people and see how they react before engaging in business (or getting socially dependent) — just to see whether they generalize. You would be surprised at the number of people who don’t. And observe what people tell you about others when they are upset with them.

It would not be ethical for me to call someone a charlatan if we engage in a fight unless I’ve called him a charlatan without a fight, or if the fight is about him being a charlatan. 6/13/16

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Did violence really drop? It the thesis on drop in violence BS?
Translating our technical results into more common language.
Draft of our report to the Nobel Foundation, for comments before we submit it Monday morning. Thanks in advance. 6/4/16

The Decline of Violent Conflicts: What DoThe Data Really Say? (pdf)

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PUTTING SKIN IN THE GAME OF JOURNALISTS
[CITIZENS vs GAWKER and CITIZENS vs JOURNALISM]

Journalists –as any guild, care about their peers and their community more than the general public. Except that we cannot afford to have such a community engage in a conspiracy against the laymen since they represent our interests, us the lay crowd; they are supposed to stand for the general public against inner circles of power. Journalism arose from the need to expose falsehood, take risks in exposing matters detrimental to the public; in short, counter the agency problem of the powerful. But, it is turning out, the journalism model can also work in the opposite manner: members have been effective in escaping having skin in the game –only whistleblowers and war correspondents currently do.

So one can see how this severe agency problem can explode with the Gawker story. The English tabloid machine came to the U.S. in full force with Gawker, founded by a firm that specializes in dirt on the internet. By dirt I don’t mean a fraudulent transaction abetted by some power: no, the kind of dirt that takes place in bedrooms (and even in bathrooms).

They sell voyeurism, predator voyeurism.

In other words they want to harm citizens by disclosing their private information and posting their videos without their permission in the interest of selling information. And without being accountable for it.
Gawker having posted a video of a celebrity having sex without his permission incurred a monstrous judgment of $140 million. The suit will bankrupt Gawker. Most of all, the judgment revealed that such a predatory business model will not survive, not because it is immoral, but because it has tail risks. For America has tort laws and a legal mechanism by which people harmed by corporations can be compensated for it –a mechanism that flourished thanks to Ralph Nader. It, along with the First Amendment protect citizens by putting skin in the game of the corporations.

Gawker is trying to make a First Amendment argument and unfortunately journos appear to find this justified –while normal citizens are horrified. Liberty in the thoughts of the founding fathers was not about voyeurism, but about public matters.

Gawker argued that because the person committing sex on the video they posted was a public person, that it became a “public” matter exempted from privacy protection. People failed to see that should that argument be true, then next someone spying on any public figure should be allowed to post their bedroom activity (including Hillary Clinton, Obama, anyone)… (Gawker has ruined the lives of 21 year olds posting their sex tapes and their reaction was outrageous; in one instance their lawyer Gaby Darbyshire e-mailed the woman who was in a revenge sex tape, defending the video as “completely newsworthy” and scolding her about how “one’s actions can have unintended consequences.”)

Peter Thiel, a billionaire with a vendetta against Gawker funded a law suit. Revenge motives perhaps, but this is how the market works: Gawker tries to make money therefore they need to live with the risk of someone trying to make money from their demise.
(You make money from the demise of a 21 yo, someone will make money from yours. You make yourself a vehicle for revenge porn; you become the subject of someone’s revenge. You engage in bullying someone financially weaker than you; someone stronger will bully you. There is no reason Gawker should be the only one to use asymmetry given that their very business is asymmetry against weak people–and this is general as the media is asymmetrically strong against citizens, what is commonly called “bullying” ).
I would have personally shorted Gawker (if they were publicly listed) to make money from their collapse. And I am ready to fund lawsuits against journalists who break some intellectual rules and distort people’s positions (strawman arguments).

Any journalist who supports Gawker in the name of the First Amendments fails to understand that they as a community are committing suicide because they are trivializing the reasons behind the First Amendment –and they make it conflict with other fundamental rights. And a corporation trying to warp our sacred values should go bankrupt. And anyone, like Peter Thiel, who accelerates such bankruptcy, should be thanked. 5/31/16

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Commencement Address at the American University in Beirut

http://fooledbyrandomness.com/AUBCommencement.pdf 5/28/16

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DISCUSSION: The New Artisan.

Anything you do to optimize your work, cut some corners, squeeze more “efficiency” out of it (and out of your life) will eventually make you hate it.

So let us open the discussion: how do you inch closer to an artisan? First, a new definition of an artisan:
1) does things for existential reasons,
2) has some type of “art” in his/her profession, stays away from most aspects of industrialization, combines art and business in some manner (his decision-making is never fully economic),
3) has some soul in his/her work: would not sell something defective or even of compromised quality because what people think of his work matters more than how much he can make out of it,
4) has sacred taboos, things he would not do even if it markedly increased profitability.

From my side, It is easy to see that a writer is effectively an artisan: book sales are not the end motive, only a secondary target (even then). You preserve some sanctity of the product with taboos (Fay Weldon put ads for Bulgari in her books which led to disgust; we do not like advertisement inside the book). You would not hire a group of writers to enter the process and “help” (some have tried, say Jerzy Kosinsky, none has seen his work survive).

Academics are also artisans. Even those economists who claim that humans are here to maximize their income, express these ideas for free, not seeing the contradiction.

DISCUSSION – Will we revert to an artisan society? Which jobs can be made artisanal? Please comment. 5/25/16

Benthem, Precautionary Principle, Monopoly, Bayer, Monsanto, Junk Statistics, Wolfers, Piffle | Twitter

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@cfshoo You should be much more ashamed of things you didn’t say than you are of things you said. –Nassim Talebpic.twitter.com/I6tGmbbY4u Permalink 3:01 AM – 25 May 2016

@nntaleb Easier to get a job in trading/quant/risk if you are a cook than economist. Economists are for networking, gov/nonprofit nonRealWorld. Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 May 2016

@nntaleb Oil is stored solar energy; it is like a battery. The idea is to minimize storage. #RoyalColloquium2016 Permalink 2:51 AM – 25 May 2016

@EmanuelDerman More cleaning up. Lawrence Durrell on economics.pic.twitter.com/wgRRgviI7j Permalink 12:17 PM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb Bentham and the notion of utility see by Marx. @SanguineEmpiricpic.twitter.com/FgAfkBZf1K Permalink 11:40 PM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb Three intense days on the Precautionary Principle near Stockholmpic.twitter.com/xPwrQl3pkJ Permalink 3:06 AM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb If you want to convince the other side that you won the argument, you have no argument. Permalink 2:26 PM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 4/4 From a long experience observing mergers, management of 1 of the companies is usually outsed; 1 side cashes out. So Agency Problem. Permalink 7:43 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 3/3: Re: Bayer-Monsanto: we have known robustly since 1986 that mergers create negative returns, largely a game by CEOs for own benefit. Permalink 7:41 AM – 23 May 2016

@CAM_SMlTH @nntaleb a good example of this at the moment with Australian supermarkets/dairy farmers and #milkmohttp://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/20/20/31/australian-shoppers-rally-behind-struggling-dairy-farmers-as-supermarkets-sell-out-of-milk Permalink 7:24 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb Greater monopoly is typically suicide for corporations. @CAM_SMlTH Permalink 6:58 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb My betes noires: + MONSANTO – gone ? + SAUDI BARBARIA – on the way + HILLARY MONSANTO-MALMAISON + Economic Departments + GOLDMAN SACHS – Permalink 6:47 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Bayer, as far as I know, doesn’t engage in as vicious smear campaigns against scientists as Monsanto does. Permalink 6:27 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb So Monsanto is now dead. Bayer for all its ills cannot possibly be as unethical as Monsanto. Good riddance. Permalink 6:02 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb Historia du jour: Many Caliphs were half-Greek (Al-Wathiq, Al-Muntasir, Al-Mu3tadid) and Al-Muhtadi was 3/4 Greek.pic.twitter.com/k3JryrfHMe Permalink 5:49 PM – 22 May 2016

@Shinfu Madre mía la interpretación libre y mala que se hace a @nntaleb.https://twitter.com/TorrasLuis/status/734480441881833472 Permalink 1:46 PM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb So far the last example of interventionism with huge unwanted consequences…https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/734077065574637569 Permalink 9:12 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb My co-author & I have data showing that Hedge Funds who blew up in 2007-8 were ~ those w/lowest daily volatility/highest Sharpe. @Sevens_2 Permalink 8:37 AM – 22 May 2016

@Chris_Liss @nntaleb FYI – quoted your prior tweet in a piece I wrote:https://medium.com/@chris_liss/on-a-scale-of-1-10-one-being-presidents-dont-have-that-much-power-and-10-being-this-could-end-7016cfe03d0a#.j48yzhh9o Permalink 8:30 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Mapping Antifragile/convexity for medical responses, as precisely and formally as possible https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf pic.twitter.com/WS3PZqjy9L Permalink 8:30 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 When I hear “data driven” I smell mistaking absence for evidence for evidence of absence, a la Pinker.https://twitter.com/JonHaidt/status/734403700362481667 Permalink 8:27 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Bill Gates is not a risk scientist & not a logician;”data driven” meaningless for complex systems/hidden risks w/Turkey Problems @JonHaidt Permalink 8:23 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Bjorn Lomborg is a dangerous charlatan. If you keep him on campus you shd also have fortune tellers & palm readers.https://twitter.com/jonhaidt/status/733614770637524993 Permalink 12:58 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Supreme rigor of the Russian school of probability: they dealt in inequalities not identities @philipbstarkpic.twitter.com/LubP6jkZUJ Permalink 2:30 PM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Clearly, Donaldo is not interventionist. Much of the rest, in foreign policy, becomes a detail.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/734066896794963968 Permalink 10:08 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Everything one does to hide intellectual dishonesty increases dishonesty. When caught lying, @amonck, confess. @Sartor1836 @WLTSchirano Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Liar Adrian Monck, when caught, kept changing the story “not in TBS”, “not in Chapter x”, “not on page x”, etc. @WLTSchirano @amonck Permalink 9:24 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb MD for “public engagement” @ Davos,Adrian Monck @amonck repeating “no ref to Popper” in T Black Swan. There are 53 mentions of Popper. Liar. Permalink 8:40 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb This tells you the author is a journo. @Confusezeuspic.twitter.com/E8v189RCxl Permalink 6:25 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Question: To become a mathematican 1- Work w/operators & functionals not just functions 2- in dual spaces 3- measure in proofs 4- what else? Permalink 5:31 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Same Joseph Stiglitz who said FNMAe had no chance of blowing up. Why we need to close econ departments & restart.https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/733871589536628736 Permalink 5:24 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb It is not just a single tweet that will get Mr Wolfers in trouble #nontrivial … @MadBurry @JustinWolfers @HillaryClinton @bill_easterly Permalink 4:58 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb In probability space, how tail eventsmore effective for threshold dependent outcomes #Medicine @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/zNy1YSAFNH Permalink 4:55 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb How variability can me more effective/more economical @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/s91lyXDYnP Permalink 4:29 AM – 21 May 2016

@wrathofgnon “Modernity: we created youth without heroism, age without wisdom, and life without grandeur.”— Nassim Nicholas Talebpic.twitter.com/pdFza8MpTi Permalink 5:26 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb …unless you are running for office. Permalink 2:17 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Rule: never immediately attribute to terrorism what can more easily be first explained by incompetence.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/733762983629840385 Permalink 1:59 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb The Incerto as a Multidisciplinary project in Probability: how to figure out that things link together.pic.twitter.com/KQ9eIn8pIN Permalink 12:34 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb For more technical explanation why retire Standard Deviation https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/standarddev.pdf https://twitter.com/newsycombinator/status/733674236410265602 Permalink 11:21 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Formalizing #Antifragility in Medicine: Putting together stuff/making notation uniform for @markomankapic.twitter.com/h58PnG7BjY Permalink 8:56 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Statement “economics is abt making all of us better off” means “economics is abt making ALL economists [bureaucrats/empty suits] better off” Permalink 7:40 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Mark you are tooooo much in a hurry. Interesting things take some time. @GuruAnaerobic @JustinWolfers Permalink 5:28 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb When someone @justinwolfers living frm charitable contributions judges the knowledge of businessmen #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/733477369852231680 Permalink 5:13 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Wolfers @JustinWolfers & I will soon have an entertaining (possibly one-sided) discussion of probability theory @theYoungerPitt Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Students saying “fat tails” instead of “cheese” at partypic.twitter.com/8pZjuWvYsP Permalink 3:34 PM – 19 May 2016

@nntaleb As predicted Donaldo having secured thenomination is now going for the left wing votes. Brilliant!https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/732893573365010432 Permalink 6:23 PM – 18 May 2016

@nntaleb This fellow, it now transpired, also works for Monsanto. Explains methods in (failed) smear campaign against me.http://nyti.ms/1wOx2Fq Permalink 11:23 AM – 18 May 2016

@beachvetlbc Evidence is- there are NO HUMAN studies to support GMO safety claims & remaining animal studies don’t either @mindlessfunk @kevinfolta Permalink 3:29 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The full text is at http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/significance.pdf @RodBerne Permalink 2:45 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb A summary of our problem with the junk statistics of Pinker.pic.twitter.com/DJlsTVM8eQ Permalink 2:40 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb I am not a UK taxpayer, so I cannot ethically voice an opinion for which I pay no price if wrong. #SkinintheGamehttps://twitter.com/Sapere_vivere/status/732678594988740609 Permalink 2:08 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Looks like the Incerto is finally going to be ONE book (in one boxset)! Don’t tell my publisher I showed it!pic.twitter.com/F8S4fQW4es Permalink 2:00 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The Holy Roman Empire was 1) not Roman, 2) not Holy, and 3) not an Empire. @sevanslux Permalink 8:34 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The Roman Empire is centrally a Mediterranean culture, structure, way of being, etc. “Europe” is a much later thingyhttps://twitter.com/CultureHouse/status/732593649704374276 Permalink 8:31 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb A clearer point of #Antifragile @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/Yr3ltKbmAW Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Wolfers will soon discover that doing probability right is much much harder than it looks. @iMetaldog @JustinWolfers Permalink 7:23 AM – 17 May 2016

@ZbraPntedDonky @nntaleb @mpigliucci @PembertonT Whenever someone leads off “With I haven’t read the book but”, prepare for pretentious piffle. Permalink 4:57 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Pigliucci has the knee jerk reaction of the academic rat: dismiss w/o knowing. Not scholarly @ZbraPntedDonky @mpigliucci @PembertonT Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb It is in Diogenes Laertius (tons of references) https://www.google.com/#tbm=bks&hl=en&q=zeno+of+citium+maritime+loans+diogene+laertius @mpigliucci strikes me as a rationalistic ignoramus @PembertonT Permalink 4:53 AM – 17 May 2016

@zerohedge Nassim Taleb’s “Shillary vs The Donald” Cheat Sheethttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-16/nassim-talebs-shillary-vs-donald-cheat-sheet Permalink 4:20 PM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Dear Mr @JustinWolfers do your papers on betting/long shots take account of these biases? Couldn’t find.Thank you.pic.twitter.com/Se3PPSPjQy Permalink 4:01 PM – 16 May 2016

@CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb Will this (lazy way) become a 21st century way? Permalink 11:27 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb If you believe that crank Falkenstein, here is something for you http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html @z31r4m @Napoleonlegal Permalink 8:42 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Latin du Jour: Where I discover that “asinus asinum fricat” (donkey rubs donkey)translates to “Salma quotes Sabrina” https://twitter.com/BanPaidMedia Permalink 6:46 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/What I mean by rigorous is not making assumptions/ certainties when there is uncertainty. Shillary offers certainties, Trump fewer ones. Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Used a one-tailed dist for x @HarryhongHong @markomankapic.twitter.com/uZkV4omqAg Permalink 4:49 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb How we transfer from dose response to probability space. Param a controls fatness of tails. @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/xsUi5afFIu Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Hillary and Bush have done the most to harm minority populations in the Levant & Iraq since Genghis Khan. @hopps3 Permalink 4:46 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Bernie v. Trump I go Bernie because his domestic policies won’t go through and his foreign policies are clearer @BoustanyMazen Permalink 3:39 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Comparing outcomes and foreign policy for Trump vs Hillary in a more rigorous waypic.twitter.com/ujwQS3iXmb Permalink 3:20 PM – 15 May 2016

@GuruAnaerobic @nntaleb Press hav just done this with Boris Johnson – “Boris has compared EU to Hitler!”. Yet this is what he said:pic.twitter.com/J3M2sNUvtD Permalink 1:02 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb We need @holland_tom: From Caesar to Herakles Rome had 7 full centuries of domination of Med, vs ~100 y as a Republic @JohnMinehan1 Permalink 11:34 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb So, Charlatan Noah @Noahpinion, sorry, but web won’t be a hospitable place for strawmanning/intellectual dishonesty.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/731294077006848006 Permalink 10:09 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Tactic by journos: catch them committing straw man they gang up strawman more portraying you “thin skinned”, as this imbecile @TimOBrien Permalink 9:18 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb How Journos are marketing Trump.pic.twitter.com/kTqyX1GT1X Permalink 8:09 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb This summarizes how we can introduce a formal view of fragility in Medicine. Any comments? @markomankapic.twitter.com/3FLXaatSNj Permalink 7:04 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb 3) If I had to pick the persons in power the most ignorant of complexity/interactions: Henry Kissinger & Hillary Clinton-Monsanto-Malmaison Permalink 8:22 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb 2) I am not saying the US needs an emperor, I am saying the US to stay a true republic should be noninterventionist.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/731684287355981824 Permalink 8:20 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Fact du jour: Rome was the dominant empire & a republic for a short period, 3rd punic war to Rubicon ~90 years. Permalink 8:15 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Sorry. Blocking was done automatically when the PR firm Ketchum was harrassing me; all followers of blocked were autoblocked. @Chris_arnade Permalink 7:14 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Surviving traders can think clearly. Others I am never sure except when I see the math/formal reasoning. Skin in the game. @learnfromerror Permalink 6:30 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb This guy has an admirable behavior: he hates my guts & I blocked him. He should be a trader if he isn’t one already.https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/731593316198846464 Permalink 5:32 PM – 14 May 2016

@AmuseChimp would @Noahpinion be as much of a bullshitter if duels still existed? Permalink 5:12 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Lost all respect for Petraeus: at SALT he said wem shd be forgiving w/SaudiBabaria re 9/11 as “an ally”. Bureaucrats are Morally Nauseating. Permalink 5:12 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb The point is not just the 28 pages linking to Saudi Barbaria, it is what has been taking place SINCE then.https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/731179284203769856 Permalink 5:09 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Retribution should be rare, but when you do it, go for the jugular.https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/731630974740631552 Permalink 5:04 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Five hours left to vote on how to deal with Charlatan Noah Smith @Noahpinionhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/731294077006848006 Permalink 12:44 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb This is exactly what I meant. @markmadsen @swardleypic.twitter.com/haN8RMiOY5 Permalink 10:20 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Central limit works slowly in the real world: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/fattails.html @urcum62 @financequantpic.twitter.com/7MYU9w52L5 Permalink 7:39 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Central limit works very slowly for finite variance infinite higher moments such as cubic @urcum62 @financequantpic.twitter.com/DbncpwkpUM Permalink 7:37 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb I never threated. I act first as with Charlatan @noahpinion then threaten when finished. @Fight_Whisperer Permalink 7:28 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb A generalized sigmoid curve for dose-response in Medicine. Has anyone seen such generalization in lit? @markomankapic.twitter.com/vq3KoT0r4p Permalink 6:55 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony rarely reacts but when he does so he makes up for it and never stops until the fellows goes into hiding @PaulSkallas @Noahpinion Permalink 6:34 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb If Charlatan Noah Smith @noahpinion smears again http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html I should expose him with what multiplier? Permalink 6:24 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Balkanization works Balkanization stabilizes Balkanization reduces oppression of minorities @yaneerbaryam @WLTSchirano @joshua_landis Permalink 2:54 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Remember: Turks killed more minorities after their “Westernization” than pripr. Modernism. @davefobare @GrkStav @yaneerbaryam @joshua_landis Permalink 2:08 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Secularism failed in the Levant & Turkey. Best to do an @yaneerbaryam “better fences make better neighbors”. Decentralize! @joshua_landis Permalink 1:48 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb If you smell what I smell there are 17 million Alevis in Turkey. Trad they conceal their faith. So expect more…https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/731219043240173569 Permalink 1:29 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Question: Do non-initially convex dose-response functions exist in nature? #Medicine #Antifragile @markomankapic.twitter.com/QcAqUkJqiz Permalink 12:34 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Second edition of The Bed of Procrustes @JohnDCookpic.twitter.com/FzDGAom67o Permalink 8:33 AM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Solution to the Gibrat vs Mandelbrot problem: When bounded, locally power laws have lognormal tails. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1510.06731.pdf @financequant Permalink 7:28 AM – 13 May 2016

The Black Swan Report

Keeping Tabs on Nassim Taleb and the Highly Improbable.

Tag Archives: Monsanto

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