Tag Archives: Monsanto

Albert Tarantola, Slowthinkers, Monsanto, Macrobullshit, Microbullshit | Twitter

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@nntaleb The late Albert Tarantola wrote the entry. His book on Inverse problem statistics is free: http://www.ipgp.fr/~tarantola/Files/Professional/Books/index.html   pic.twitter.com/DA2nb0DXt1 Permalink 2:52 PM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb I discovered today that psychologists “statisticians” & other slowthinkers are not familiar Inverse Problems. http://mathworld.wolfram.com/InverseProblem.html   Permalink 2:44 PM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Turns out Scientific American @sciam is a Monsanto shill! This is the worst damage to the core of scientific trust! http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/monsanto-scientific-american_us_56fc41d7e4b083f5c606a649   Permalink 11:28 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Anyway coming up with a theorem and will let Lakens boy argue with the theorem. @deaneckles @CookieSci @JoeHilgard @lakens Permalink 11:20 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Things are starting to be funning with the replicating goons: The “power” of a test is a random variable. pic.twitter.com/CDrWQh8MSB Permalink 10:26 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Monsanto’s media machine comes to Washington http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/monsanto-scientific-american_us_56fc41d7e4b083f5c606a649   via @HuffPostPol Permalink 8:30 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Bullshit https://twitter.com/lakens/status/715398204494221314   Permalink 5:24 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Another one in a Donaldo denial. https://twitter.com/Limeylizzie/status/715339307574292480   Permalink 8:01 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Daily expression of hope that Donaldo is NOT for real, just “temporary”. Yet to me Laura is top 3 jrns in the world. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/715359302567993346   Permalink 7:11 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Ahamm te3li2 ijitne min wa2t tawil. Lani7faz turasna w aslna. https://twitter.com/menleben/status/715358032411107328   Permalink 7:04 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Ahamm shi la bilad shem nitrok el lijneh el 3arabiye, nsour mitl Malta samiyyin bass b3ad 3an el 3arab. Sh3b tene. Ne7na Aramyiyye Permalink 6:55 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Lishano siryoyo ma7zito d’omto d ilan r7imto Permalink 6:43 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Mr @lakens take your time to explain why since my eq. 1 is so trivially know why didn’t you use it in your Open Science replication project? Permalink 2:42 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Per measurement not per ensemble of measurements @gvpathi Permalink 1:50 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Mathematical results have a p=0, physics overall p< 10^-10, negative empiricism/logic p=0, the rest are largely bullshit, prefer humanities. Permalink 1:33 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Latest version is here http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/715269562862804994   Permalink 1:11 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb P-Value paper now ~ cleared through the “was done before” trolls: we have an exact metadist and p-hacking bias. pic.twitter.com/uc18mhd493 Permalink 1:08 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb This paper has every single error, missing that in-sample measure of extreme events is downward biased. https://twitter.com/carney/status/715258655017418754   Permalink 12:33 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@chaslutz @DrFrankWilson @EconTalker I hate CAF too, but this is bad stats as @nntaleb has said: right comparison is to burglaries PREVENTED by police Permalink 12:28 PM – 30 Mar 2016

@nntaleb It is easier to macrobullshit than microbullshit: for the news ignore geopolitics & finance journos; only crime reporters know theit stuff Permalink 10:04 AM – 30 Mar 2016

@TalebBot Executive programs allow us to watch people who have never worked lecturing those who have never pondered. Permalink 7:20 PM – 29 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms Was the pounding the Syrian & Russian militaries handed ISIS in Palmyra a big PR stunt as described in the media? Permalink 4:08 PM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb At the bottom, psychologists want to be treated as “scientists”. Alas, in my world they don’t exist. @Blacklabellogic @GordPennycook @lakens Permalink 2:49 PM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Frankly I don’t consider psychological handwaving as a source of rigorous mathematical results @GordPennycook @lakens Permalink 1:53 PM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb When someone is looking for antecedents for a result, announcing “this is what I teach my undergrads” when isn’t true. @Heinonmatti @lakens Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Daniel Lakens, your behavior w.r.t. antecedence is silly, unscientific, & ignorant. @lakens @AndrewPGrieve Permalink 3:00 AM – 29 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Mediterraneans fast, eat no breakfast, small dinner, and walk up down hills. Diet studies aren’t rigorous. https://twitter.com/erlesen/status/714577237459210240   Permalink 3:22 PM – 28 Mar 2016

Belgium, P-Values, Nocera, Saudi PR, DARK Act, Monsanto | Twitter

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@nntaleb The Saudi origins of Belgium’s Islamist threat http://wpo.st/NMlO1   Permalink 4:59 PM – 23 Mar 2016

@nntaleb There is a video see feed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0   @NathanBiddle Permalink 6:47 AM – 23 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Two works in my mailbox: One Formulation of size and fragility http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2741198&download=yes   One Book on Antifragility http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-30070-2   Permalink 6:13 AM – 23 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Here is the video on the metadistribution of p-values https://youtu.be/8qrfSh07rT0   and the text is here: http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   Permalink 7:55 PM – 22 Mar 2016

@davidmoore411 He’s one of few people on the internet who could insult you publicly and you’d still buy his next book. His stuff is that good. @nntaleb Permalink 6:08 PM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb OK, OK, full proof of an exact metadistribution of p-values (covers all hypotheses). Shd I do a video comment? pic.twitter.com/YLuY3UTY1v Permalink 3:21 PM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Syrian Christians behave as Muslims in the East, Christians in the West, & are viewed as Muslims in the West and Christians in the East. Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Walid Phares is a Christian Lebanese @dandrezner Permalink 4:54 AM – 22 Mar 2016

@nntaleb What is slowing me down w #SkinintheGame is Isocrates’ Silver Rule for Nations: Treat other nations the way you want them to treat you. Permalink 3:26 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Q: Should we intervene more to “help” countries as we brilliantly did in Lybia, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam, Iran (1953)? https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/712014036993499137   Permalink 2:37 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb “Funding” & “Investments” are the last thing you need. All you need: authenticity & risk. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153701042473375   pic.twitter.com/lMyA1wTQ56 Permalink 2:34 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@cdipaola62 @nntaleb @NoceraNYT Definition of Irony- A writer named “Nocera” finds discussion of Primum non Nocere, unintelligible Permalink 1:47 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Actually, from his name John of Damascus was not Syrian/Aramaic, but likely to be an Arab (*Yahya* Ibn Sarjun, not Yuhanan) @iandavidmorris Permalink 1:38 PM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb 9 days is nothing. There is the 2005 pre-crisis discussion of my skepticism of models that will eventually be re-opened. @NoceraNYT Permalink 10:29 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb It is called “first do no harm”, avoid “policies with side effects” (primum non nocere) translated: “no nocere, Nocera” @robert_cookson Permalink 10:09 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb If you have trouble understanding this, you really have problems. @robert_cookson http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-12/nassim-taleb-sums-americas-election-17-black-swan-words   Permalink 9:57 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb A journo who says “unintelligible” reveals more about his intellect than the intelligibility of the subject matter https://twitter.com/noceranyt/status/708650770380546049   Permalink 9:36 AM – 21 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Thanks to Scott Robeson, this is the expected pseudo-significant results <5% for true p-value @indianaclimate pic.twitter.com/sZ1863QyzA Permalink 8:05 AM – 20 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Friends, the metadistribution of p-values: rewrote, looking for mistakes bef publ on ArXiv. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   pic.twitter.com/hn25LnI37C Permalink 6:08 AM – 20 Mar 2016

@nntaleb For all his defects, more pple would like to become Trump (yacht/American dream) rather than some reasonable-sounding hack criticizing him. Permalink 3:05 PM – 19 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The more efficient you try to be at a given task, the more you will hate it. Permalink 3:51 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@lhfang New Saudi PR effort SAPRAC led by guy who recently helped regime smear Nimr al-Nimr, gov critic they executed. pic.twitter.com/9IbCNKDxFz Permalink 2:08 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb A 3% significance is really 16% @pehr_bjornbom @antitrustly @ReneMaric pic.twitter.com/ZcQdCggnmf Permalink 12:31 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Real-world rigor (Feynman-like): bring mathematics to deeply understood problems, don’t take deeply understood mathematics to problems. Permalink 12:00 PM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb To get a real p-val of 5% you need 1.1%; 5% is ~ 26% https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/p-val.pdf   @antitrustly @ReneMaric @BrianNosek pic.twitter.com/EHXHV4xVvZ Permalink 11:33 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@yaneerbaryam Military strategy in a complex world — how antifragility undermines traditional military strategies http://www.necsi.edu/research/military/strategy.html   @nntaleb Permalink 10:08 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Why didn’t anyone pull out the “p-value” of the “p-value” before? @ReneMaric @BrianNosek Permalink 5:46 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Only solution: it you “really” want a p-value of .05, require .0125! @BrianNosek @ReneMaric Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb I mean p-values are random variables that do not necessarily reflect statistical significance. I can’t find in lit. @ReneMaric @BrianNosek Permalink 5:26 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Why aren’t psychologists (@BrianNosek) aware that p-values have HUGE sampling error? #replicationcrisis https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/p-val.pdf   Permalink 5:19 AM – 17 Mar 2016

@nntaleb typos pic.twitter.com/z9BQiLlsQp Permalink 6:41 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb On plane proof p-values are extremely random/volatile & explicit variance as function of n. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/p-val.pdf   pic.twitter.com/IYIN215S3a Permalink 6:34 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Evidence based? That is ignorant BS. Anti-GMO is scientific scrutiny. https://twitter.com/NinjaEconomics/status/710263345153093632   Permalink 6:08 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Experiment: Farro w/ squid ink. pic.twitter.com/Qzzkxud18w Permalink 5:18 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb People are so concerned about my age. pic.twitter.com/JHXlNBinkr Permalink 3:57 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Victory! Senate Rejects the DARK Act http://ecowatch.com/2016/03/16/senate-rejects-dark-act-gmo-labeling/   via ecowatch Permalink 2:19 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb This is the kind of BS people clueless about tail risk utter. Farmers’ modifications belong to a narrow basin. https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/710093894847959040   Permalink 1:45 PM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic: when in a hotel for the very first time, reject the first room they give you. Permalink 5:49 AM – 16 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Monsanto forces farmers to bear all the liability for its seeds, making itself immune to adverse consequences. pic.twitter.com/khRh3Sff1J Permalink 1:48 AM – 15 Mar 2016

Prostitution, Shillary Clinton, Fragilistas, Monsanto, Mandelbrot | Twitter

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@nntaleb Overt Prostitution is the only form of prostitution that doesn’t desecrate sacred values, unlike lobbying etc. @DavisMets @Scruton_Quotes Permalink 2:41 PM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb When things that shdn’t be sold are for sale: opinion, science, lobby, Shillary Clinton, sacred values are violated. https://twitter.com/scruton_quotes/status/706581855731109894   Permalink 1:09 PM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb France gave the Saudi Prince the Legion of Honor …also sold weapons & Salafis to preach in France. Bureaucrat Fragilistas @Spfannenschmidt Permalink 11:12 AM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb My tweets autodelete every 31 d but there will be periodically more on charlatan passing for scholar @samharrisorg https://twitter.com/partimetroll/status/706534249227091968   Permalink 9:41 AM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb I was the first, before Donaldo Trump, to use twitter to trash journos & talkingheads; do not call me an imitator ! https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/706531140195196932   Permalink 9:32 AM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The #nudge nudgeocratsnoskininthegame nudging us using studies that have < a coinflip probablility of being true.. https://twitter.com/rebeccanomics/status/706439904268570624   Permalink 8:40 AM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb What the fuck are you naming by “science” studies that don’t generalize? @GRPbsci Permalink 12:40 AM – 6 Mar 2016

@nntaleb This FDA Test Could Devastate Monsanto Inc. — The Motley Fool http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/03/05/this-fda-test-could-devastate-monsanto-inc.aspx#.Vtveww6lOyM.twitter   Permalink 11:39 PM – 5 Mar 2016

@LieraMarco 110mila shareholders of Banca Popolare di Vicenza called “musina” (money box) their holdings. In 1 year they lost 90%. @nntaleb #hiddenrisks Permalink 4:23 AM – 5 Mar 2016

@marylovefreedom Which means that psychological “science” should NOT be used as a reliable guide for policy or behavior. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/705692516805419008   Permalink 3:28 PM – 4 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The absurdity of econometric metrics: the more chronically sick people in the population, the higher the GDP. Permalink 10:37 AM – 4 Mar 2016

@nntaleb 6 y later,finally proved a conjecture Mandelbrot and I formulaled but did not prove abt finite variance powerlaws. pic.twitter.com/dw4yeAdJkM Permalink 4:51 AM – 4 Mar 2016

@stan_yurin @nntaleb “You are not replicating properly” sounds familiar. Same with business, diet and fitness charlatans. Permalink 2:10 AM – 4 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Psychologists aren’t getting that if results are SO sensitive to setup,they cannot be robust in real world & trusted https://twitter.com/ScienceNews/status/705478736821559296   Permalink 1:53 AM – 4 Mar 2016

Arabization, Umayyads, Professional Shills, Decision Theory, SITG, Monsanto, Socialites | Twitter

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@nntaleb 2/2 Likewise Abbaside Califs favored settlement of Jews in Baghdad for Arabization because unlike Persians or Chaldeans, Jews were “Arabs”. Permalink 7:57 AM – 2 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Where we learn the Umayyads helped Jews settle in coastal Levant to displace Byzantines settlers/traders.(free PDF) https://twitter.com/Ballandalus/status/704328842530463744   Permalink 7:51 AM – 2 Mar 2016

@nntaleb We need good compilation aggregating professional shills s.a. Jon Entine, Henry I. Miller, Keith Kloor,Tamar Haspel https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/705028460750589952   Permalink 6:12 AM – 2 Mar 2016

@jfrias92 @nntaleb #antifragile pic.twitter.com/hEBHcHRzPM Permalink 4:03 AM – 2 Mar 2016

@nntaleb More robust (and easier) to focus on food distribution than mess w/transgenics with unknown tail risks. #technodopes https://twitter.com/SaraMenker/status/704909887956983808   Permalink 1:05 AM – 2 Mar 2016 (Evaluating gambles using dynamics)

@nntaleb The most important published paper in decision theory I’ve seen (Peters and Gell-Mann) since Thorp’s “Kelly Crit.” https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/704793858194825217   Permalink 2:23 PM – 1 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Even a child wouldn’t say “Even if true, Nuclear bomb expodes “only a small % of the time”. #ProbabilityRiskIgnorant https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/704692089347514368   Permalink 1:33 PM – 1 Mar 2016

@nntaleb More evidence that lack of skin in the game make people stupid… and dangerous. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/704692089347514368   Permalink 11:38 AM – 1 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Social scientists have brain problem not getting: for Fat Tailed dist ALL properties=tail. @sflicht @robinhanson pic.twitter.com/nvYfmgI47q Permalink 7:23 AM – 1 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Prediction: Monsanto to move into organic, away from GMOs. They may be evil, but unlike their shills/technodopes, they aren’t very stupid. Permalink 3:51 AM – 1 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Inversion of skin in the game for big corporations: Monsanto Given Legal Shield in a Chemical Safety Bill http://nyti.ms/1TKummk   Permalink 5:10 PM – 29 Feb 2016

@Danimallian Flint, TBTF, and now this. Singapore’s president makes $4.3M. Our officials are paid by lobbyists. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/704470212909858816   Permalink 5:03 PM – 29 Feb 2016

@RyanHoliday “Preoccupation with efficacy is the main obstacle to a poetic, elegant, robust and heroic life.” Nassim Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 1:30 PM – 29 Feb 2016

@maggieNYT Trump said he’ll open up the 9/11 commission papers that are secret so people can know who “really” knocked down WTC http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/01/us/politics/donald-trump-conspiracy-theories.html?_r=0   Permalink 7:51 AM – 29 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Correction: Should be 2.01 (add, not deduct epsilon) Permalink 6:05 AM – 29 Feb 2016

@nntaleb My current list of “enemies of the good”: 1) Wahabi regime/Saudi Barbaria, 2) Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison/Tony Blair, 3) Monsanto/GMO shills Permalink 5:56 AM – 29 Feb 2016

@nntaleb A simple way to understand why for fat tails the average is always closer to the maximum: (here 1.99 trillion) https://twitter.com/JohnAllenPaulos/status/704297361993031680   Permalink 5:46 AM – 29 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The social media comments on our Real World Risk Mini-Certificate Workshop from attendants: http://www.realworldrisk.com   pic.twitter.com/w9w9EWQqle Permalink 5:32 AM – 29 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Never befriend socialites. (Heuristic du jour) Permalink 5:22 AM – 29 Feb 2016

Monsanto, Greek Orthodox, Panic, Syria

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https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/643141575405604868

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/642109563454533632

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/641906197004730369

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/641731997497487361

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/641415057792962561

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/641347134814470144

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/641207027507683328

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/640858690304798720

Monsanto kept pushing the balloon under water for years using devious schemes. The Black Swan usually comes quickly. https://t.co/d1XiSigVvL

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 13, 2015
Which sorts of explains why we sort of connect Russia. (Picture of Greek Orthodox Levantine service) pic.twitter.com/yLoPX69ATE

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 10, 2015
The *only* way to survive is to panic & overreact early, particularly that those who “don’t panic” end up panicking & overreacting late.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 10, 2015
Monsanto worse than Chipotle by 30%, explains negative publicity. Shameful losers. @thefoodbabe @consumerfreedom pic.twitter.com/ioWwSkv8xm

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 9, 2015
Nitpicking is the unmistakable mark of cluelessness.

— Taleb Bot (@TalebBot) September 4, 2015
By apologizing Hilary Clinton broke rules #1 *Always apologize except if you did something wrong* & #2 *Politicians should never apologize*

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 9, 2015
Migration: “The Nation State: apartheid while staying politically correct.” (Bed of Procrustes, aphorisms). pic.twitter.com/3Ghn2xbQ2h

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 8, 2015
Over time past extremes will necessarily be surpassed. At ESREL in ETH. pic.twitter.com/nvhJNOCsx0

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 8, 2015
Because the world cannot bring peace to Syria, Syrians are looking for peace elsewhere. Solution is working on settling Syrians in Syria.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 7, 2015