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Lindy, Noah Smith, Sufis, Trump, Greenwald, Pinker, France, Tversky | Twitter

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@CCavafy We the Alexandrians, the Antiochians, the Selefkians, the countless other Greeks of Egypt & Syria, & those in Media, Persia, & all the rest. Permalink 5:23 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The smell of mathematical inequality on Sunday evening. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/pKbrczGMII Permalink 5:05 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Other elementary thing *Former Belgian PM* doesn’t get is Pax Americana in W. Europe, Pax Russiana in E. Not his EU ShmEU bureaucratoBS Permalink 4:46 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For those who can’t see it, here is the link between fat tails and weightliftinghttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d#.qoo5lopoe   Permalink 8:07 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb He came to take my risk/probability class, and look what happened.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/833339540630822913   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The point is that you NEVER NEVER gauge wars by FREQUENCY but by INTENSITY. Kapish? Permalink 5:03 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb What I mean by Lindy: she and only she is the real expert.https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.l8mhx964p   Permalink 4:24 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The Lindy effect is Lindy compatible. “Use laws that are old & food that is fresh”. Thanks Constantine @ctheofilopoulos pic.twitter.com/q1Lg5MVK4m Permalink 4:15 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The beauty of mathematical visualization early in the morning @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/nkf7gs9qQB Permalink 2:50 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The hundred years war killed between 2K and 22K per year. Kapish? @surfnm Permalink 2:28 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb This former PM of Belgium doesn’t get that this is, simply, wrong. “Wars” used to be small squirmishes. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1505.04722.pdf  https://twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/832877334260768770   Permalink 2:06 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Anyone who reads Noah Smith has a problem http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   @DominikLeusder @Noahpinion Permalink 5:36 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I was expecting that Trump would reset the tax code, foreign relations, etc. But I never expected that he would reset the media. Permalink 5:28 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Particularizing from the general; vastly worse @Debradelai Permalink 1:34 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) For Salafis, Islam is immutable law, incompatible w/state. For Sufis, it is ~spirituality, compatible with secular state. @DalrympleWill Permalink 10:05 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Sufis are the future. Unfortunately 1 generation of Saudi Money in Turkey, Syria, etc. eradicated them. Luckily surviving in Central Asia.https://twitter.com/DalrympleWill/status/833004673749626880   Permalink 9:48 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Imbeciles think in words! A universal principle that holds AT ALL SCALES is rigorous. Think before tweeting. @IvarsNeiders @mikeharrisNY Permalink 8:00 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) Humanities academics are rejects w/no common sense substituting thinking w/universal slogans, destroying student’s discernment, reasoning Permalink 7:15 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) Love of humanity doesn’t force you to open your living room to ALL passers by. But you may invite a few. Complex systems are stratified. Permalink 7:02 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Education & intellectualization make people think in Universal terms for local problems, with no awareness of Scalability. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 6:32 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb At starbucks drinking “ethical water”.https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/832639141720551424   Permalink 8:01 PM – 17 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb “We love imperfection, the right kind of imperfection”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) pic.twitter.com/mOxAgid9lJ Permalink 1:48 PM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friday squid ink and mathematics with @a_lesniewski pic.twitter.com/pb181J3xD7 Permalink 10:23 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For Math lovers, #FF Follow Friday: @CutTheKnotMath who makes you work very hard. pic.twitter.com/m0ANxGxwq1 Permalink 8:52 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I watched the press conference. Trump played the press like a violin. Calling this “Meltdown” proves that Huff Post is low-IQ propaganda.https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/832334242843615232   Permalink 5:25 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The unnoticed fact revealed in the press conference: The @realDonaldTrump is heavily lawyered & has lawyered up even more post-Flynn. Permalink 4:49 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@AssalehAmer heuristic: when @nntaleb describe something to be bullshit the odds are overwhelmingly it’s bullshithttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/832257892900282369   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “People reveal much more about themselves while lying than when they tell the truth.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) pic.twitter.com/C8vkkOMqVO Permalink 1:02 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I blocked Louise Mensch for 1) mental incapacity/instability, 2) playing cheap games of sensationalism. @morningj @LouiseMensch @ABarnardNYT Permalink 12:25 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Journos & other idiots are confused as hell by the Donald Trump; don’t get that he may be the *only* recent leader who never had a boss. Permalink 10:52 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) And Saying let’s not fight terrorism because past incidence is low is like saying let’s remove pilots since planes don’t crash @foxjust Permalink 7:28 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Here is the difference between terrorism & falls from ladders seen from Extreme Value Theory @foxjusthttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 6:36 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nice reference to my work @foxjust but Fishhoff NEVER made the distinction Thin/Fat tails, used Extreme Value Theory, mixes tails & variancehttps://twitter.com/BV/status/832201138082574336   Permalink 6:25 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Maybe I should attend the class and make random arguments about what the aphorism meant.https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/832066353167212544   Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) pic.twitter.com/mrs4mDYWR8 Permalink 5:36 PM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb …imitating the choice of the most overweight male at the table…https://twitter.com/SlimScribbles/status/832000324327976961   Permalink 3:08 PM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb True left (Greenwald) is vastly more rigorous than pseudo-left (NYT, Monsantoistic journos). You can agree or at least disagree with them.https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/831838190541631488   Permalink 4:57 AM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling is the information age’s rediscovery of simony . Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “If you want strangers to help you, smile. For those close to you, cry.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) Permalink 12:45 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb pseudo-left pseudo-intellectual pseudo-lib pseudo-science pseudo-feminism pseudo-Dionysius the Aeropagite.https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/831594603950272517   Permalink 12:25 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mystery of why past planned cities worked: Alexandria, Antioch, Constantinople (semi-planned), Kairaouan, Fustat/Cairo. Where they planned?https://twitter.com/JohnDCook/status/831592910319677440   Permalink 12:18 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule and asymmetry of demand!https://twitter.com/careygillam/status/831550005274148864   Permalink 9:20 AM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Naive empiricism, terrorism & Ebola. Please don’t read the NYT. https://youtu.be/9dKiLclupUM   via @YouTube Permalink 8:42 AM – 14 Feb 2017

@mns yo @nytimes @nytopinion @NickKristof your thinking is faulty, cc @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/UDN5wfuHvB Permalink 11:57 PM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We think alike. From Silent Risk (this was 2014) http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html   @ProbFact ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Z5EuNrH90Y”>  pic.twitter.com/Z5EuNrH90Y Permalink 10:28 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Knows how to handle the difference between evidence of absence and absence of evidence within probability theory.https://twitter.com/gmax1mum/status/831169908440338432   Permalink 8:01 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Interesting story but it doesn’t seem to show in the DNA. They must have converted to Islam. Hitti, Salibi, etc. were fiction writers.https://twitter.com/ByzantineLegacy/status/831012601052135424   Permalink 3:44 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb in 2016, Obama accepted ~11000 Sunni refugees and ~72 Christians frm Syria. Mr @ali_w_ali I am blocking you next to avoid twitter pollution. Permalink 9:06 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Please vote on this tweet (twitter polls don’t allow pictures). Thanks Permalink 8:50 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nigel is spot on. True refugees are *persecuted* minorities, the ones Obama blocked (he accepted 20x more Sunnis in relation to ratios.)https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/830820042736562176   Permalink 8:47 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friends, question for our Fat Tails book with @DrCirillo. Which graph is nicer, top or bottom? pic.twitter.com/wpbWTP6u1B Permalink 7:41 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb This book represents FooledbyRandomness & bullshit vending at its best: Pinker boy misrepresents/did not even understand his OWN data.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/829745377431674880   Permalink 6:59 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Genetics is a dream for bullshitphobic historians. Looks like Phoenicians & Assyrians (not Babylonians) were “Indo-Europeans”. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/ddwyWy1NlC Permalink 5:10 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Now, you have to choose between 2 competing chief executives. Which one should you pick? The one who looks “professional”? Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Baal invented sushi so people can pay a lot of money for a meal without gaining weight. Permalink 5:07 PM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You have to choose between 2 surgeons in a hospital. Which one should you pick? The one who *looks like* a surgeon or the other? @jamessaft Permalink 12:45 PM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Economist hit a point: when you compare them in effectiveness to stamp collectors, philatelists get angry.https://twitter.com/punkphilatelist/status/830412558779588608   Permalink 5:54 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @HalSinger after so much economics you need to relearn elementary properties of binary relations, such as symmetry many toddlers know. pic.twitter.com/IL9RvuZ2zY Permalink 4:09 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @HalSinger, if someone who has “apocalyptic worldview” likes my book, does it make it apocalyptic? If a prisoners reads my book… #IYI Permalink 3:55 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink and Pugliese wine to rest after REWRI 4 pic.twitter.com/qxRQZkhkDJ Permalink 5:44 PM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Is this true? How do we compute iatrogenics?https://twitter.com/piktograf_mrlol/status/830207020498354176   Permalink 4:23 PM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb REWRI Day 5: “All markets are illiquid when you really, really need them”. Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@KS1729 @nntaleb thought of you when I saw this. complexity of the world vs successive generations of “risk management” pic.twitter.com/bwnySwnN4D Permalink 10:29 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3 instructors at the same time.https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/829731053300486144   Permalink 10:23 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Managing the economy without economists is like managing a war without stamp collectors.https://twitter.com/CNBCTopStories/status/830067141525204992   Permalink 10:21 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb .@poetmorgan1 Expressing yourself in words doesn’t mean you thought “in words”. Kapish? And stop tweeting for Baal’s sake. Permalink 9:40 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb BTW I never say that mathematicians think in “numbers” but in axioms, objects, and inequalities: pic.twitter.com/ov57yBnS4v Permalink 4:33 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) Hence low risks of violence/ unrest. In spite of academics barkings, risk of fighting is much lower under Trump than it was under Obama.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/829669736560599044   Permalink 5:01 AM – 9 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1)Cond. Prob. Conditional on having voted Trump, odds of owning gun is, say 30%. Conditional on owning a gun, odds of voting Trump is >90% Permalink 4:34 AM – 9 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Indeed.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/829517127979823104   Permalink 6:42 PM – 8 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Real World Risk-4, 50 pple: 1) 8 weightlifters (max DL 470), 2) 6 pple who returned, 3) 4 Italians, 4) 1 Canadian and …. 5) no vegetarianhttps://twitter.com/DyedraJust/status/828755748586938368   Permalink 12:55 PM – 8 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Never expected that Antifragile would end up being influential in the White House. But I hoped for it.http://politi.co/2jUtPVp   Permalink 8:37 AM – 8 Feb 2017

@ScottAdamsSays Everything Taleb says is smarter than whatever you were thinking on your own. Especially if you are a word-thinker.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/829028834578202624   Permalink 11:31 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb “There’s A Global Riot Against Pseudo-Experts” Nassim Taleb Exclaims “This Is Not About Fascism” | Zero Hedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-07/not-fascism-nassim-taleb-warns-theres-global-riot-against-psuedo-experts   Permalink 10:07 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Which is why I never read and after a mistake never write for @prosynhttps://twitter.com/stan_yurin/status/828947314014302208   Permalink 5:06 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb There is currently a global reaction against the pseudo-expert. Who is the real expert? Lindy.https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.ks4e2m2bj   Permalink 2:35 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness *precedes* Drunkards walk @investomedico . Kapish?https://twitter.com/investormedico/status/828591148696473600   Permalink 5:13 AM – 6 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I systematically decline invitations to conf. discussing “populism” as if it were some type of pathology. Mere term “populism” misframes pic.twitter.com/IGzbnorPDu Permalink 7:51 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb By indiscriminately attacking Trump, even when he does the right thing, the pseudoleft is elevating him & self-destructing. #Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/StephensWSJ/status/828047211762155520   Permalink 3:44 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Remember.https://twitter.com/alphamelville/status/738640536521867264   Permalink 1:52 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb One of my yet unfulfilled predictions is to see the true left fight the pseudo-left over Trump’s foreign policy.https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/828052045701722113   Permalink 6:21 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Syriacs are high J2 and very little J1, meaning Northern Mesopotamians had no intermixing w/Semites. Only language. @zaliin @PZalloua Permalink 6:11 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@BBassem7 This is an amazing exchange. Very courageous of Trump. #FoxNews pic.twitter.com/f0ulhYwoj0 Permalink 6:09 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb If an American entrepreneur is stupid enough to relocate to France, good news. It would improve the average of both counties.https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/827958432955260937   Permalink 11:27 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Greek mytho has Europa from Tyre to Crete, Arcadia frm Ugaritic pple (Arwada). Bible has Canaan son of Ham not Shem. @wunderbearer @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/pxL0YH6sOm Permalink 10:52 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) In other words the claims by Jews that they are different tribe from Cannaanites even if lang same appears true. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1) Looks like the notion “Canaanites as Semites” is bogus empirically. Both Torah & Greek mythology say they aren’t. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb More interestingly, the probability of Koura people being of Arab origin is less than 1 in 1,000,000 @PZalloua Permalink 9:42 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Distribution of Genes of Greek-Orthodox in Koura (Amioun) appears *identical* to Greek Islands/Crete @PZalloua Confirms Byzantine theory pic.twitter.com/SmvKRBCfp5 Permalink 9:29 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Artificial stupidity comes w/ overriding the Lindy-compatible in favor of some bias invented by some ignorant nerd like @r_thaler Permalink 8:57 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A. Tversky once said he didn’t care about *artificial intelligence*,he studied *natural stupidity*. I prefer to study *artificial stupidy*. Permalink 8:26 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1)Historical Intrigue du jour: Phoenicians & Assyrians likely not of “Semitic” ancestry, yet spoke Semitic lang. @PZalloua will have more. pic.twitter.com/Igw0rq9BtT Permalink 5:18 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@BBassem7 #Saudi tweep refers to the terrorist that attacked the Louvre as a “hero” Saudis are not covered by the Trump’s ban. pic.twitter.com/Em28c4M0OY Permalink 2:45 PM – 3 Feb 2017

@normonics Demonstrating the IYI allergy to discontinuities. Tiny changes often beget qualitative shift.https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/826840804660436993   Permalink 9:30 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Actually, they would call it… “the left”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/827503519305519104   Permalink 5:30 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I wonder what the Enlightenment people would call a “Left” that’s authoritarian, repressive, disciplinarian, & despotically normative. Permalink 5:06 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb . @arbedout Before tweeting, think in 2nd order of why I made such statement. Check amazon, it’s #1. Permalink 4:57 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Milo’s book is the highest selling book in America, 2 month before pub! #Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/MarkEGreene/status/827491494068117504   Permalink 4:48 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1) Peace: Top or Bottom? Morrocan gov pro-Israel, but popul. hostile. Iran gov hostile, but not Iranians. Which peace is easier? Think Long Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/CDOCubed/status/827413609877757952   Permalink 3:07 AM – 3 Feb 2017

Cowen, Thaler, Deadlift, SaudiBarbaria, “think tanks”, Salafism | Twitter

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@nntaleb 3825 years later, economists haven’t yet figured out what Babylonians did: debt has systemic effects (hence on others), self-harm doesn’t.https://twitter.com/tylercowen/status/826613009132969984   Permalink 3:14 PM – 2 Feb 2017

@jnyangena Something @nntaleb has been saying for years nowhttps://twitter.com/BrentBeshore/status/827237359074684928   Permalink 1:17 PM – 2 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Do IYI economists & social “scientists” realize they will soon be cut from taxpayer money? The pseudo-research $$ scam is bound to end. Permalink 9:59 AM – 2 Feb 2017

@nntaleb New York Museum of Mathematics, @MoMath1 Matthew Richey pic.twitter.com/rC0hWazww1 Permalink 4:15 PM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Outside your shit papers, in the real world, risk-takers work with thresholds to simplify life. @R_Thaler @JamesMarsh79 Permalink 9:53 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Rodrik, like cheap Starbucks, engages in cheap virtue signaling, at the expense of sophistry. Bullshit is free. @CliffordAsness @rodrikdani Permalink 6:20 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We’ve know Syria news were fake almost from the beginning. Why did it take that long? Herding/lack of courage by journos fearful to deviate.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/826582270777683968   Permalink 5:00 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb (cont) Last time I set foot in Starbucks they were selling something called “ethical water”; with millennials falling for that scam. Permalink 2:29 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nothing wrong in the classics in the elevation of your status. But you need to take risks for that, signal courage. @PrometheusAM Permalink 2:18 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Great Ed Thorpe’s memoir. @JamesMarsh79 alerted me that smokevendor @R_Thaler finds Kelly/Thorpe criterion a mistakehttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/foreword-to-ed-thorps-memoirs-a-man-for-all-markets-6beba78cd2b#.eo4b8yt9s   Permalink 2:17 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 4) “Bullshit vending” was present in the classics, as more politely “Smoke vending” “Vendere fumum” Compiled in Erasmus (Adagia, I, 3, 41 ) Permalink 2:06 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Blaming Starbucks for fake virtue signaling, hypocrisy, exploitation of the immigration ban, @kaveh_h I boycott Starbucks since GMO darkact Permalink 1:58 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) I am procrastinating w/ *Skin in the Game* as I can’t find *virtue signaling* in classics (#Lindy),nothing beyond hypocrisy. Is it new? Permalink 1:56 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@illacertus Just uploaded my animation of The Bed of Procrustes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) – https://youtu.be/lRN_KT17mNo   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2z9AyjC8MJ”>  pic.twitter.com/2z9AyjC8MJ Permalink 10:35 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Results are lift specific. Deadlift 5max rep dropped from weaknening of wrist. Rest between unchanged (squat) and slighly down (press). Thx!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825684555407511552   Permalink 9:26 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Voila @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/GQbASsQwII Permalink 4:51 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb It takes courage to stand up to Saudi Arabia, none to virtue signal here. There is no virtue without risktaking & sacrifice #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/826386249992830978   Permalink 3:41 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I boycott SaudiBarbaria. They should. @MrSeras @AlexJacksonKerr @Konstant_V Permalink 3:19 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling here and there! Pseudo left here, extreme right there. https://twitter.com/konstant_v/status/826251002592559109   Permalink 3:06 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@GreenRupertRead https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/29/barcelona-residents-protest-high-rents-fuelled-by-tourism?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other   – An encouraging development!: Barcelona marches against the harmfulness of tourism on the city. @g_kallis Pse RT Permalink 2:27 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The IYI pseudo-left is disgusting.https://twitter.com/rupasubramanya/status/823410948589416448   Permalink 1:11 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb We Christians have been made uncomfortable & not at home in the Levant; we feel at home with Western values & want to keep it as such. Permalink 11:15 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Abdulla I came here running away from intolerant Salafis like you & separation of ch & state. No chasing me here.https://twitter.com/saloul/status/826143889161613312   Permalink 11:06 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3/People are not getting that it is under Obama that minorities fleeing Sunni persecution were not allowed !!! pic.twitter.com/pLcAooTXly Permalink 11:03 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Here is the answer to Mr Greene @bgreene: don’t use your “scientific” status to give policy advice about risk. pic.twitter.com/B0Cp7HfTCk Permalink 8:07 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Can someone answer the fellow abt comparing random variables? Thanks.https://twitter.com/bgreene/status/826080516256436224   Permalink 7:23 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Greene is CLUELESS abt risk/probblty.”Odds” are NOT past frequencies for fat tailed distributions ! Only thintailedhttps://twitter.com/bgreene/status/826066350619652098   Permalink 6:20 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A better link for the paper: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/elections.pdf   Permalink 4:53 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Finally, first draft of my paper on how to forecast an election: forecast includes more volatility than success pr.https://www.dropbox.com/s/wfhm4q3w3k964y2/elections1.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 4:31 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb No, retweets. I unfollowed those who retweeted this. @shootersix Permalink 3:42 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Alas, statistics w/o reasoning. P(hit by bus) < 10^-20 probability of quadrupling. Not terror. #FooledByRandomness !https://twitter.com/KimKardashian/status/825580660337283073   Permalink 3:39 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 1) Reasoning: if a Moroccan terrorist (hence Muslim) killed Muslim people in #QuebecCity, very high probability the victims are Shiites. Permalink 2:20 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb For Baal’s sake, note that I am against the ban for Iran, Iraq & Yemen, but REQUIRING restrictions for Salafis .Kapish? @mtsw @rodrikdani Permalink 10:35 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And Salafism isn’t quite promoting the tolerant “diversity” that Mr Rodrik is looking for… @rodrikdani Permalink 10:30 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Had @rodrikdani made an effort to get the point instead of bullshitting: American value is not accepting assymmetric *intolerant* religion. Permalink 10:28 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rodrik, hope you understand that you are some BS-writing hack living on American charity. Not quite the American dream. @rodrikdani Permalink 9:32 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Asymmetric separation between church and state is leading to Halal public shools in France. @schmittpaula @zak_pullen Permalink 9:22 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A friend you lose was never a friend. @TheDefenderA Permalink 9:02 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@BBassem7 Christianity is under attack by ISIS & AlQaeda in the Middle East. This is no secret. This is a video of what ISIS did to churches in N Iraq pic.twitter.com/MpQshEct25 Permalink 9:01 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@schmittpaula @nntaleb Case in point:Somali taxi drivers in Minneapolis airport refusing to pick up passengers w alcohol, sending them to back of the line Permalink 8:36 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb For those still confused about Salafi Islam & the Popper-Godel principle, let me again invoke the minority rule.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.iyxs6hpdm   Permalink 8:24 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I came as refugee from the Lebanese war, embraced American values,& vowed to defend them. I refuse immigrants who don’t embrace our values. Permalink 8:02 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Shiites are also victims. In Saudi Arabia they are treated worse than dhimmis. Permalink 7:23 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) Iran is the only Islamic country that is truly robust in its tolerance towards Christians and Jews. Permalink 7:21 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Those railing abt temp ban are silent abt dhimmification & extermination by Sunnis Salafis in Near & Middle-East.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/825721153142521858   Permalink 7:18 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@GreenRupertRead St Thomas Aquinas – ‘It is better that a blind horse is slow’. #PrecautionaryPrinciple pic.twitter.com/0K1Wz882VE Permalink 6:54 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Back to New York after ~4 weeks weightlifting hiatus, to let the body heal from injuries. What will happen to the maximum press/deadlift? Permalink 4:38 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proper legal mechanism is to de-label Salafism as religion, treat it like a political party (say Nazis) then ban!https://medium.com/@nntaleb/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e#.8olh056n6   Permalink 12:43 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Bingo! It is fallacious to treat Salafis as religion or race, but as a violent viciously intolerant political party.https://twitter.com/kringelikrok/status/825600544559362048   Permalink 11:25 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Just as “political science” doesn’t have any science, “think tanks” are for people who don’t and can’t think. Permalink 3:21 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Salafism is CRIMINAL @singhponline @Medium Permalink 2:13 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A potent border test for Salafis: crack a joke and check their sense of humor. Salafis & literalists can’t get humor.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825430237643149315   Permalink 1:05 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb We should ban indiv. Salafascists from entering U.S., not countries, not Yemenis & Shiite Iranians. (Popper-Godel)https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.moo05xksc   Permalink 11:47 AM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb No-nonsense Book on Fat Tails with @DrCirillo, looking increasingly like Dynamic Hedging in style. pic.twitter.com/SZFzKNiP8C Permalink 11:13 AM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Probability du Jour: Why correlation always finite and bounded in (-1, 1), when covariances are undefined. (final) pic.twitter.com/fgj3itJzEB Permalink 11:16 PM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb While Trump’s”enemies take him literally not seriously & friends seriously not literally”, the wise looks at his acts & acts only. No words. Permalink 6:40 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Actually title is “Extreme Events and How to Live with Them” Permalink 6:26 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb They aren’t aware that I will lecture on something related to the Ancient Mediterranean without anyone noticing.https://twitter.com/DarwinLectures/status/824985891840151552   Permalink 6:24 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Pedagogical slides explaining Fat Tails for my talk in Cambridge questa sera: Why under fat tails single events>sum pic.twitter.com/oXNzOUp9m6 Permalink 3:05 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Cambridge pic.twitter.com/UasiBmiIlK Permalink 11:26 PM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb From discussion w/ @DrCirillo abt the mystery of why correlation exists but not covariance for very Fat Tailed dist pic.twitter.com/rz6cp0UDUc Permalink 10:45 PM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The problem with demonizing people instead of criticizing them is that truth eventually comes out in full force & the devil becomes a saint.https://twitter.com/daniellmcadams/status/824769366046732288   Permalink 10:24 PM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Bravo! There has never been a crowd that creates as much harm thinking they are doing good as pple in US State Dept.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/824655496854564864   Permalink 9:05 AM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb You cannot do statistics without logic. Otherwise you become a data fraud, or, worse, an economist.https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/824328271814868992   Permalink 3:07 AM – 26 Jan 2017

Left, Received Ideas, Minority Rule, Naive Interventionism, Flamboyance

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@nntaleb Statistically, the terrorists who killed the largest number of Americans were from Saudi Barbaria. Just a reminder. Permalink 12:41 PM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Who’s coming to my Cambridge tawk? We can sample potential topic. Permalink 3:32 AM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Genes and languages don’t line up necessarily! See Turkey, Cyprus, USA, Mexico, Egypt, etc. @Lekapenos @kingdomofvan @ghchammas @PZalloua Permalink 12:43 AM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Friday, my talk on Fat Tails at Darwin College in Cambridge, UK. Should I change topic & talk abt ancient Med? http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/67301   Permalink 12:10 AM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb There are as many definitions of “Fat Tails” as… We settled on “true fat tails” (Paretan, hard) & nonParetan (soft) fat tails. @DrCirillo Permalink 12:02 AM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Much of the population seem to come from the North, the “Aryan” Asia Minor, aside from the sea. @ghchammas @PZalloua Permalink 11:28 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 4) Unlike genetic theories, low-dimensional genetic analyses focusing on Haplogroups for populations very robust statistically. Permalink 11:24 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Linguistic categorizations post Greenberg fail miserably with Semitic languages, owing to cross terms/mutations Permalink 11:24 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) So theory by Salibi is bogus. Myth 2: Contra SciAm (not “scientific”), little Arab origin/blood in Western Levant ~ elsewhere in Med. Permalink 11:23 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 1) With geneticist @PZalloua, busting a few myths about the Levant. Myth 1: Population of Levant is “Semitic”.PreIslamic population European Permalink 11:19 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Wine in Akkadian @Extrachelle pic.twitter.com/Y321LxOAdA Permalink 12:40 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The word wine comes from Phenician Yayn (Oinos), from Akkadian Inu. But also 7mer (see Ugaritic). @Extrachelle pic.twitter.com/e2FNAubKp3 Permalink 12:38 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Basically, resist equating injustice and some static IYI measure of inequality.https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.357e7qgy0   Permalink 7:46 AM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If you’re over 30 and *need* to ever show or use a measure of your IQ, then tautologically it is the wrong measure. Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I meant Charlie Munger Permalink 3:58 AM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A real IQ test is one (Reverse engineered): An old Greek peasant would pass, Hume, Voltaire wd pass, D Munger wd pass, & P Krugman wd fail Permalink 2:46 AM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb NEVER MISREPRESENT AN ENEMY’S POSITION Redeading Hammurabi’s c:false accusations are as punishable as the crime https://www.facebook.com/13012333374/posts/10153441737168375   Permalink 9:07 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Interventionism is such a lunacy (opaque effects) that you end up harming yourself, w/alliances w/future enemies…https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/822438829055496194   Permalink 8:20 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb So IYIs are accusing Trump to be fascist while asserting at the same time that Obama is a better il Duce, better at gathering crowds? Permalink 6:39 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is this picture real? If so, why the contract with CNN?https://twitter.com/KellerZoe/status/823479934987472896   Permalink 2:46 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Fucking idiot an arbitrage is an arbitrage not a methodology. Violating an arbitrage loses $$. @DGkiranpai Permalink 1:26 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Completed the “How to Predict an Election” thanks to jet lag. For comments. pic.twitter.com/g3TAUYWeEB Permalink 12:59 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2/Pretty much any news operation who performed asychronous comparisons needs to be disqualified as evidence of propaganda Permalink 11:54 PM – 22 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Can someone confirm that the pictures of Trump’s and Obama’s inaugurations in comparative panels in MSM were taken at different times? Thx! Permalink 11:43 PM – 22 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Actually ba3den maps to Hebrew/Aramaic Permalink 8:06 AM – 22 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Thing I learned today: many Levantine words that don’t map to Aramaic/Hebrew have a Phoenician orgin. Ba3d, Ba3den pic.twitter.com/4adL5aIWF3 Permalink 2:16 AM – 22 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Some people select mystical numbers for good luck. 786 is 4-16 times more likely to be Muslim, pop adjusted. Kapish? @RakeshNarula2 Permalink 5:04 PM – 21 Jan 2017

@nntaleb They study economics or psych/social science & end up finding them real because the BS is effortful to learn.https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/822781983621320704   Permalink 4:46 AM – 21 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Thing I learned today: In India you can tell someone’s religion at his phone number or car license plate. Muslim: contains 786. Permalink 3:04 AM – 21 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Dictionary of Received Ideas, New Version pic.twitter.com/mheJHAhbO6 Permalink 10:46 PM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb This is ironically simple but wrong.https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/822590260823687168   Permalink 8:44 PM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Nobody had “lived under a Trump” 3 h ago outside of his imagination. @CutTheKnotMath @Kasparov63 Permalink 1:12 PM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am trying to imagine Fat Tony’s reaction in front of a *vegetarian* burger joint. pic.twitter.com/7AZvTvSlnE Permalink 12:46 PM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb New definition of “left” pic.twitter.com/GPLjyv1OhT Permalink 3:38 AM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The new Dictionary of Received Ideas pic.twitter.com/oT3E0tSHCd Permalink 3:02 AM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Where I am discovering is that the *only* thing I have in common with writers is that I write books.https://twitter.com/sonyadc/status/822310433918828544   Permalink 1:57 AM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Friends needs ome help: what’s the origin of बस (bas = no more) in Hindi? pic.twitter.com/KviEEb7YPA Permalink 11:25 PM – 19 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Semitic philology du jour: “ma” used as negation in Hebrew & Akkadian. possible origin “mimma” @lameensouag pic.twitter.com/NKsZpbuCDG Permalink 11:08 PM – 19 Jan 2017

@PenguinIndia The minority rule explained- it’s easier for the majority to adapt to the minorities demands. @nntaleb #PenguinAtJLF pic.twitter.com/XQrmfm2QDd Permalink 1:47 AM – 19 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Where the term “pseudo-left” will be made precise.https://twitter.com/penguinindia/status/822002067631915012   Permalink 12:49 AM – 19 Jan 2017

@PZalloua @nntaleb @Lekapenos @Michael99908062 Split since 10kya based on Y chromosome pic.twitter.com/dUxmYaBS78 Permalink 12:12 AM – 19 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I would check w Pierre Zalloua @PZalloua who found a different genetic imprint for narrow coastal band on Med @Lekapenos @Michael99908062 Permalink 11:45 PM – 18 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My book Skin in the Game, in process (a few chapters) The more I procrastinate, the deeper the book gets!https://medium.com/incerto   Permalink 3:19 PM – 18 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Naive interventionism led to financing terrorists like Binladen, which is as wrong morally as foolish operationally.https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/820779940517969921   Permalink 1:34 PM – 18 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Male peacock in Jaipur. You don’t win elections by being dull, but by flamboyance & natural signaling. @ZEEJLF pic.twitter.com/kZeACQ5v7u Permalink 3:59 AM – 18 Jan 2017

@nntaleb We will settle on a terminology (whether FatTails incl Heavy Tails or vice versa) @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/Jggq9g3e9g Permalink 7:10 AM – 17 Jan 2017

@nntaleb To imbeciles who think my Davosphobia comes from “not being invited”:I was invited,once, & I made sure they regretted it. @VeryBritishDude Permalink 7:05 AM – 17 Jan 2017

@nntaleb When you see “economists say”, read as “those same economists, once again, say” …https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/821274548968550400   Permalink 1:10 AM – 17 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Menu @kringelikrok pic.twitter.com/ARBUdEr2Hj Permalink 12:02 PM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb When people are Lebanese-Armenian they say Lebanese here. When they are Aleppo- Armenian they say Lebanese-Armenian. Permalink 11:56 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Aleppo-Armenian food in Beirut. A long experience since Tigran. pic.twitter.com/I28DvO3TzI Permalink 11:33 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Pple give to charities &feel virtuous by just giving.No #SkinIntheGame IYI workers feel virtuous while misspending Those in need are screwed Permalink 7:25 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@robertwjordway One of the many reasons @nntaleb is my fav. Just moved to DC where few have #SkinInTheGame. Pols should start with #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/7fLGNQ6ElO Permalink 4:57 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Lord Shemesh this morning shining on Mount Lebanon across from writing desk pressuring me to finish #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/wPEVVtLiqs Permalink 12:59 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My ancestors used Greek not Aramaic. That’s the main cultural tension with Maronites and Syriac Orthodox tribes. @herbert_delmont Permalink 10:59 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@GuruAnaerobic The BBC is no longer interested.https://twitter.com/NinaByzantina/status/820660029913202690   Permalink 10:34 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Paradoxically, the place people travelled safely was on Silk Road thanks to clearing by Genghis et al. See @peterfrankopan @brenwickham Permalink 12:58 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Roman citizenship was before edict of Caracalla~204, limited to former city states. Closed sys @MattheWrite @jacoporomei @_md @duarte_vasco Permalink 12:48 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb In Ancient Med, bulk of migrations was from 1) slavery, 2) invading armies @jacoporomei @_md @duarte_vasco Permalink 12:47 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) Romans had incredibly difficult laws for resident barbarians (nonCitizens) in Empire @jacoporomei @_md @duarte_vasco Permalink 12:45 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb This is not, not, not true. It was hard to settle in Athens as a foreigner, except for Sidonians. Metics. @jacoporomei @_md @duarte_vasco Permalink 12:43 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb No advanced countries are diglossic into a dead language. An Engl/Fr./Sp./It. letter sounds like speech. @alifakharany @thealikhanafer Permalink 11:44 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@thealikhanafer Arabs don’t read; those who read are diglossic & don’t do so in Arabic. I sold 100K in Italian! Permalink 11:40 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb People feel that Arabic is an invador’s language. Green-Roman alphabet used for 1000-1200 years before Arabic. #LindyEffect @LaurenceJarvik Permalink 11:04 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb At the first pizza/pasta restaurant in my ancestral village Amioun. Not an Arabic letter on the menu.Extinction of Ar pic.twitter.com/hLIBSJdzUo Permalink 10:41 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I disagree w/”MAY be based on shaky science”. It IS shaky science. Lindy & p-values https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.4c6w8mo54  https://twitter.com/TomChivers/status/820196628594302976   Permalink 9:26 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Ok, he got my weak point.https://twitter.com/strifenjustice/status/820617852738793472   Permalink 5:07 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Fat Tony: “No one ever went bankrupt trading against intellectuals”. Permalink 5:04 AM – 15 Jan 2017

Kasparov, Friedman, Pinker Boy, Idiot Journo, Gym Voting, Summers, Lindy Effect, Stiglitz, Parag Khanna, Michiko Kakutani, Obama | Twitter

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@nntaleb Not just this idiot but MSM journos keeps calling “tyrant” a person who never ran a country. Minimum IQ required!https://twitter.com/ARoss2929/status/820430811241521153   Permalink 4:51 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And Sorry, poor unassisted and courageous Yemen, I keep forgetting.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/820422471887241216   Permalink 4:45 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 6) Obama allowed bankers to have the biggest bonus pool in history, in 2010, just after we bailed them out. Plus Geithner a rep of cronyK. Permalink 4:20 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Obama destroyed Michael Flynn’s career because he was opposed to covert policy of financing/training AlQaeda in Syria @mjb1286 Permalink 4:14 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@yaneerbaryam Tail risk decision-maker, protector of the system. The Prez is the risk manager not the risk creator. Permalink 4:11 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 5) Obama favored Jihadi headchoppers over secularists, financed AlQaeda, wrecked Lybia & Syria, decimated Christian communities. Shame! Permalink 4:08 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 4) Obama-novacaine left us with 10 trillion gov debt for 7-10 mil jobs and hugely increased fragility in the system. Permalink 4:04 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Basically “no scandal in his presidency” sums it all: for we didn’t elect an archbishop for sermons & lectures, but a decision-maker. Permalink 4:00 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) His legacy is an increased centralization in the most complex system we’ve seen, instead of exact opposite. Not the America I want. Permalink 3:58 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 1) My summary of Obama: He is the fellow who, when there is fire in the building, makes a great moving speech, then calls for advice. Permalink 3:56 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Dina Powell is a Copt. She is no “Arab” American; shameful on their part to use identity politics w/wrong identity. @EHSANI22 Permalink 3:43 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb PhilologyParadoxduJour. Levantine for man is zalmé/zolm, Syriac for small/weak; man in W. Semitic GVR, frm ~strong pic.twitter.com/PJOwRRFixH Permalink 9:26 AM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Fails to get that separation isn’t “populist” vs”technical” but Real World competence vs academic “tawk” @tylercowenhttp://bv.ms/2jevRhY   Permalink 7:48 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb You can tell at the arguments used if a person is a crypto-ISIS supporter. “We hate ISIS *but* first… “https://twitter.com/Pyrmha108/status/820062894679330816   Permalink 7:00 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Davos is the Intellectual Yet Idiots IYIs annual convention, joined w/the International Association of Name Droppershttps://twitter.com/linear911/status/820074029994258432   Permalink 6:42 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Great place for Apollo worshippershttps://twitter.com/g_exercitus/status/819993119173255168   Permalink 12:56 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Actually, I would say further, @CutTheKnotMath is the best educational math site on the internet! Permalink 8:58 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Went today to the Roman temple to honor Apollo & found it profanated with Santa Claus & Christmas decorations. pic.twitter.com/X3KTcVQQxE Permalink 8:45 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb From what I’ve noticed linguists don’t get co-linearity, make statistical fallacies @akhchronicles @siinjiim pic.twitter.com/NGjJOijCqL Permalink 7:48 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My first Follow Friday #FF is to @CutTheKnotMath. Follow his twitter math problems for edification, pleasure, or to kill time in airports! Permalink 7:38 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proving Levantine is not derived from Arabic leads to same for most other so-called “colloquial Arabic” dialects & “Arabism” to fall apart. Permalink 5:11 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shemesh is finally shining on the Southern slope of Mount Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/zBsLMqNwFf Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Voila, in Classical Syriac Baqara also cow @candela3paz pic.twitter.com/iZZ0E9Xvw6 Permalink 4:11 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “House”is “Beit”in Hebrew/Phoenician, Aramaic,& spoken Levantine (rboso), Bayt in Arabic. For idiotArab nationalists, it comes from Arabic. Permalink 3:02 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Today Snow in Mount Lebanon with ominous clouds (from my window). pic.twitter.com/yIhgfx5k7Y Permalink 2:46 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Words such as “syrup” or “sorbet” that come from Arabic actually have Aramaic roots SRB: parched (to offset) pic.twitter.com/uwnqqjgsXo Permalink 2:38 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Much of the similarities between Levantine & Arabic come from Aramaic loan words into Arabic, particularly religious ones @seize_the_dave Permalink 1:31 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Arab “nationalists” believe & spread the BS that pple in the Levant had NO language before the Arabs showed up. In fact it is the reverse. Permalink 1:28 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Finally, I consider an IQ test, rather “Intellectual Yet Idiot” test: IYIs are pro-GMOs for “scientific” reasons.https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.s8o3lvf46   Permalink 12:39 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Also 538 DOES NOT have a good Brier Score: You shd include ALL forecasts! @rpmiller4 @SamWangPhD pic.twitter.com/cpSzbelnS0 Permalink 12:29 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@rpmiller4 @DavisMets @SamWangPhD Brier score doesn’t cover tail risk. Would you use it for airplanes? Permalink 12:22 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Sam Wang who gave Trump <1% shd now know enough abt forecast errors to respect risk @DavisMets @SamWangPhD http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 12:13 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb LEvantine vocabulary, 80% of words used in conversation (Zipf). Very few words have Arabic origin (conflations). pic.twitter.com/eL1j8U1wZi Permalink 10:37 PM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Never trust a journalist except if she’s your mother. (Bed of Procrustes)https://twitter.com/diannawolfe13/status/819423309259481089   Permalink 10:00 PM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The prof doesn’t get it. Tenured profs are there to “pursue the truth” but to make a career. Amateurs pursue truth.http://wpo.st/zlyQ2   Permalink 9:50 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am certain I am not the only one to see Rex Tillerson as one day President of the United States.http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2017/01/11/tillerson-to-senate-sanctions-harm-american.html   Permalink 8:31 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@DrCirillo Last version of the paper with @nntaleb about operational risk and apparently infinite means: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2681006   A few typos corrected. Permalink 8:03 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@EHSANI22 Rex Tillerson explaining to senators Russian role in global order is like a Professor talking to …………. Permalink 7:49 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@iyad_elbaghdadi You contradict yourself. This is inconsistent w/your classification of Maltese as nonArabs from genes in spite of lang. Permalink 5:57 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am convinced that Michiko Kakutani is mentally ill. @michikokakutani pic.twitter.com/qn1wVTKgcn Permalink 5:49 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@denver_analyst “Inequality and Skin in the Game” — @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#—0-144.tvz4diwpr   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ewcaGWLIXS”>  pic.twitter.com/ewcaGWLIXS Permalink 5:22 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Justinian’s code: ~ 50 vol generally on symmetry in transactions! Many clauses originally Berytus. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/6Q6cSwbqLu Permalink 4:59 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Yes, illusion that ideas make it because of some methodological stamp, rather test of time via Lindy @BruBartonSinger @aeronlaffere Permalink 4:34 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I ban Huffington Post from publishing my material that is otherwise public to others.https://twitter.com/TankRizzo/status/819157902392967168   Permalink 4:29 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Malta speaks a Semitic language v. close to Levantine;but nobody insists it’s a “dialect of Arabic”. No ArabLeague.https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/819143770084085760   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Added more sections to my chapter on Lindy https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.u6g3y6ya1   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0KZcPnvg4S”>  pic.twitter.com/0KZcPnvg4S Permalink 3:40 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Reading Theodosius’ code looking for #SkinintheGame & symmetry in transaction. Sharia is too sophisticated to come from Arabia @hosain719 Permalink 1:57 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If @realDonaldTrump ate ice cream, Krugman wd criticize ice cream. If he ate apples,he wd criticize apples. This is info abt Krugman not DT. Permalink 12:50 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@RonPaulInstitut Where Was Meryl Streep When Obama Was Prosecuting Whistleblowers & Bombing Weddings? http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2017/january/10/where-was-meryl-streep-when-obama-was-prosecuting-whistleblowers-bombing-weddings/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rUBxrLfIdm”>  pic.twitter.com/rUBxrLfIdm Permalink 12:35 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Three stages of the Christmas cheese from M. Spitznagel’s goat farm. pic.twitter.com/OVfNpsxjEf Permalink 9:59 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Not racial: was Rome’s way to control Green-Card marriages. Legal liabilities more punishing for those marrying non citizens (“barbarians”) Permalink 7:29 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Interesting Fact du jour. Theodosius code:Marrying a Barbarian(“gentile”)=capital punishment. Rule made in Beirut. pic.twitter.com/GbpxzydE7w Permalink 5:28 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Added section to https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.ia7askabt   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mVwAvl3Yax”>  pic.twitter.com/mVwAvl3Yax Permalink 4:58 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@philmop Empirical vs Theoretic, Researchers vs Grandmothers, @nntaleb’s top piece on the deprostitutionalization of research http://bit.ly/2jy5VP9   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vO4UiWpv8F”>  pic.twitter.com/vO4UiWpv8F Permalink 3:00 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@NIRPUmbrella A smart PhD economist on his economic outlook after reading ‘The Black Swan’ by @nntaleb. #Complexity pic.twitter.com/xkxEIwZdX9 Permalink 4:21 PM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb It is as hard to fake indifference when you are interested as it is to fake interest when you are indifferent. Permalink 12:52 PM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb This is a more technical version of the problem of non constant Pareto \alpha https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.02369.pdf   @BrankoMilan Permalink 11:11 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My Amazon review of a real book on Foreign Affairs https://www.amazon.com/review/R1MPOC1YEX7D5R/ref=cm_cr_dp_title?ie=UTF8&ASIN=9351777596&channel=detail-glance&nodeID=283155&store=books   Permalink 10:41 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Do you realize this puts you –as a classicist — on top of the pyramid? @ArmandDAngour Permalink 9:45 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Parag Khanna’s ideas about technocracy, US, Singapore, Switz, & why we need smaller Washingtonhttp://wpo.st/I2UQ2   Permalink 6:32 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I just published “An Expert Called Lindy”https://medium.com/p/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf   Permalink 5:53 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Cannanite Shift @oldlevantine @lourou1981 You good; very good. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canaanite_shift   Permalink 4:44 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Stiglitz is the poifect reverse indicatorhttps://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/818251394817937408   Permalink 4:24 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@normonics Uncontrolled spreading of environmentally detrimental GMO — systemic risk!! http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pp2.pdf  http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2017/01/grass_seed_industry_fearful_ab.html   Permalink 3:09 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb #MathisBeautiful Fixed! @CutTheKnotMath @republicofmath pic.twitter.com/0ISJqe5OSg Permalink 10:53 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@DanielLMcAdams Does anyone believe Christmas would be celebrated in Aleppo if Washington’s jihadist head-choppers had “liberated” it?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/818088570623770625   Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb There were large Armenian quarters in Jerusalem, Aleppo, Alexandria BEFORE the Genocide, thanks to diff church didn’t integrate @TNinestein Permalink 7:45 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Reexplaining the Lindy Effect as well as why is free he who doesn’t care about his reputation. pic.twitter.com/H9w9dPYcQv Permalink 7:28 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Aleppo depended on Cilicia during Tigran’s dominance. @TNinestein pic.twitter.com/1NW4FLEpLQ Permalink 5:49 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Armenian Christmas in Aleppo. The Armenian comm. precedes the Arab conquest. Still there in spite of Hussain Obama https://twitter.com/ThierryMARIANI/status/818027631073492992   Permalink 5:34 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Ms Anya policygoonocrat @AnyaMartin8, pls find a SINGLE concept in my writing not backed up with rigorous technical formulation. Thanks you. Permalink 1:24 PM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A businessperson cares abt his reputation as it facilitates business, not as an end. For people who aren’t free, reputation is the end. Permalink 12:35 PM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 5 abstract & ill-defined words in 140chr: “strong” “vital partner””free” “dictatorship” i.e., can apply to anything.https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/817811092575584260   Permalink 11:30 AM – 7 Jan 2017

@elkement Bookmarked @nntaleb’s post on The New Artisan https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153860152453375   I read it whenever I feel to falter as a small business owner. Permalink 7:09 AM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/cYb1QTGudM Permalink 5:37 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Life isn’t about getting forecasts “right”; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it. Permalink 1:09 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb All talk. It is not people on twitter one shd impress, but the taxmanhttps://twitter.com/AnnPettifor/status/817405431702323200   Permalink 12:31 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shadi Hamid @shadihamid represents the interests of the funders of AlQeda. Much worse than neocon. @FedUpCitizen_ Permalink 11:16 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And I forgot to add the Copts who deserve our attention the most!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/817409792406855680   Permalink 11:11 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb To my Armenian and Russian Orthodox friends, Merry Christmas! Permalink 8:37 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proof that entropy under 2nd law leads to thin tails,or why Pinker is a charlatan @sapinker @yaneerbaryam pic.twitter.com/KEmdqFg61J Permalink 7:17 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Nobody is noticing: the entropy error by Pinker boy @sapinker is precisely what leads pple to believe in thintails everywhere. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Syria is the victim of “hotel journalism”: war correspondents clustering in Beirut, far from Aleppo. TBS, 10y ago: pic.twitter.com/pV8zLUybkv Permalink 4:30 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is it me or there is something wrong with Steven Pinker @sapinker pronouncements on scientific topics? @yaneerbaryamhttps://medium.com/@yaneerbaryam/brief-comment-on-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics-in-human-affairs-885105dc8419?source=twitterShare-f138bf5466fe-1483664469   Permalink 5:02 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@dnlmc @nntaleb Ben Franklin on IYIs (from https://twitter.com/dnlmc/status/810331163797712896  ) ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uW9ho5Zywp”>  pic.twitter.com/uW9ho5Zywp Permalink 4:07 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I’ve learned more tricks & heuristics from Rory than I’ve learned from all other English speaking humans.https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/817059502944112640   Permalink 1:37 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The usual illustration confirming Math is Beautiful @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/jKsLrjWlm4 Permalink 12:37 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb They live in Washington DC @digvijoy_c @MaxAbrahms Permalink 12:16 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The Babylonian root is shitpu, ashaptu, ashabu, etc.: surge in fire; looking for Ugaritic @asadabukhalil @lourou1981 pic.twitter.com/esBeT7AnRd Permalink 11:24 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@leithfadel Hi @ABarnardNYT – Why did you leave out the part where Kerry says the US used ISIS to pressure Assad to negotiate?http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/30/world/middleeast/john-kerry-syria-audio.html   Permalink 11:06 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If you want to make sure someone never misses your tweets, block him. Permalink 9:38 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@elliotsanchez @nntaleb Guidelines were wrong for years, we should introduce stressors early for 80% less allergies. Shocked http://www.cbsnews.com/news/peanut-allergies-new-guidelines-for-parents-children/   Permalink 8:07 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shob is in Syriac, apparently not in Arabic @lourou1981 pic.twitter.com/rw96tu221b Permalink 4:38 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@anishraju As always, @nntaleb stays ever relevant. In 2017, subtract unhappiness instead of adding happiness. pic.twitter.com/mw037RwTfj Permalink 3:06 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@MaxAbrahms Do you find it troubling when think tanks that get foreign funding from terrorist-sponsoring countries provide US national security advice? Permalink 7:27 PM – 4 Jan 2017

@JAMyerson It can be easy to overstate the anti-anti-Assad case, but this look at western coverage of Aleppo strikes me as legit and reasonable.https://twitter.com/FAIRmediawatch/status/816692382116806656   Permalink 11:30 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Genuine [the book’s contents]https://twitter.com/khayutsefi/status/816699513494794240   Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) The HKM in Heb/Ar are associated with wisdom, HKM= to arbitrate. Here spoken Levantine still uses the original meaning “to medicate”. Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is it me or something pathological fighting Russia when armed state w/~7mil pop. beheads Americans,kills civilians in West & >10K nonSunnis? Permalink 7:40 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Philology dujour: Akkadian calls doctors Hakkamu,just as Levantine does 4200y later, medicate=Hakkam (Ar = Tabbab) pic.twitter.com/UF69JuEYKU Permalink 6:51 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@ZEEJLF Join @nntaleb as he discusses his multi-volume essay on uncertainty with writer & economist @davidmcw at Cox & Kings Charbagh at #ZEEJLF. pic.twitter.com/NiukpbnDvK Permalink 6:35 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@1rapidus He is not passing for intellectual. Kapish? Permalink 5:40 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb IYI Intellectual Yet Idiot struck a cord as it was obvious. *Intellectual Yet Philistine* is even worse. Idiot is ok, No Erudition is fatal Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Now that we are discovering how dumb the “elite” effectively is, plus IYI , they will never recover. Mystique gone.https://twitter.com/David_GISI/status/816444194805968896   Permalink 6:04 PM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Assembly in Aleppo: you can see visibly Western Syrians, incl. Sunnis, are Mediterraneans/S. Europeans, not Arabs. pic.twitter.com/5SLaFsQ7BS Permalink 11:36 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I used to hold Larry Summers in low respect. Today I hold him in negative respect: he magically gets things backwardhttps://twitter.com/LucasHahn1990/status/816353262320304128   Permalink 10:45 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb He gets it. It’s the mechanism, the process, not the idea.https://twitter.com/Mattrud/status/816353990141243394   Permalink 10:44 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@evil_SDOC Lentement, certains lèvent le voile sur la gde escroquerie qu’a été la couverture médiatique de la guerre en Syriehttp://www.marianne.net/syrie-victime-plus-credibilite-mediatique-100248961.html   Permalink 9:41 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Rothkopf @djrothkopf is a fraud; I said it to his face here on twitter. @PALE_Primate @outsh1ned @MusicityManager @GenFlynn Permalink 8:38 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Next week!https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/816033994508800000   Permalink 8:15 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I feel I do not have soul in the game when 1) cutting corners, 2) reading a classic in a different language than original. Like cheating. Permalink 6:24 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK, evidence of Seneca not far. @avisolo pic.twitter.com/FDKd5Z0CIi Permalink 6:17 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb IYI Economists as frauds: 1) compare themselves to pilots in complex self-organized system 2) their planes crashedhttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/815939523964243968   Permalink 12:35 PM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Resolution: to go full Lindy for 2017; set 2 shelves. #LindyEffect @OrodruinR pic.twitter.com/gz6xgRSdCA Permalink 10:35 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I use twitter as scratchpad for the Appendix of Skin in the Game @JakeNabel pic.twitter.com/AplAJ6rLve Permalink 8:14 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “L’émulation et la jalousie ne se rencontrent guère que dans les personnes du même art, de même talent et de même condition.” LB @JakeNabel Permalink 8:10 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shiites, like Christians, have a culture of martyrs; and they have a long, very long memory. Not good for KSAhttps://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/815923696506458112   Permalink 6:21 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “Econmsts praised Piketty’s “erudition” for citing J. Austen; the equivalent to praising the weighlifting of someone carrying a briefcase” Permalink 6:03 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Expanded the chapter on Dynamic Inequality & Envyhttps://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.70i1k3ari   Permalink 5:52 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb (cont) Inequality: Envy doesn’t travel geography and social classes pic.twitter.com/IHuX5uD6vc Permalink 5:46 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The notion “no-one is a prophet in his own land” originates in Aristotle’s Rhetoric. (Libanius,Autob.) #inequality pic.twitter.com/WGVbJak94z Permalink 5:26 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The more data people show you, the more suspicious & intellectually vigilant you should be. Added to Ineq. Chapter. pic.twitter.com/Fki4W2BqnU Permalink 3:57 PM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The proof can be redone graphically. The solution is in corners for the max, and center for min @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/QFmxEUIlMJ Permalink 3:27 PM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Happy 2017 everybody. Hope the new year delivers to you something you deserve but did not dare to wish for. Permalink 9:31 AM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Maybe I should be very worried. @trishankkarthik took my class & didn’t mention probability. Nor deadlifts.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/815310426586103808   Permalink 3:36 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Corrected typos & glad it passes the test of terrorism expert @MaxAbrahms pic.twitter.com/zINyihHzVw Permalink 2:17 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The author of the book is the boxer, high-flying adventurer, entrepreneur and mathematician @JustinWolfers @Caseyag1 Permalink 2:08 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener. Permalink 1:40 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb New Year Resolutions are in my “Commencement Address, AUB, 2016”https://medium.com/@nntaleb/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b#.17sca2q22   Permalink 1:03 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Ch 8 of Skin in the Game, or How to put the head of a horse in your enemy’s bed. Waiting for @MaxAbrahms to comment pic.twitter.com/I8vpZGXXHJ Permalink 11:50 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Redo everything from the ground up yourself. Never use computerized metrics unless you’ve derived them @sleuthstock Permalink 8:05 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 7) Year end 2016: my use of “boy” as over sign of disrespect (such as “Pinker boy”) https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20boy&src=typd   Permalink 6:57 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 6) Year end 2016: 2017 Resolution 1: Finish Skin in the Game. 2017 Resolution 2: Deadlift 420. 2017 Resolution 3… pic.twitter.com/cmPtWWHmGA Permalink 6:51 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Assuming 50% pr, (½)^{10} =1/1024 so decimal adj @CommonSense190 @ChateauEmissary Permalink 6:28 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 5) Year end 2016: My most read piece, Intellectual Yet Idiot, added PPS https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.2g4c64l2f   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3Q4CWogdKK”>  pic.twitter.com/3Q4CWogdKK Permalink 6:11 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Klueless: The N is not “small”. The probability of randomly getting 10 heads on 10 flips is Permalink 5:28 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Like this @moniker42 Which is a reason to block all journos from your twitter feed. pic.twitter.com/LNaK1QO9fo Permalink 5:13 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This idiot journo doesn’t realize that ALMOST ALL scientific papers are used with same sample size & higher pval.https://twitter.com/moniker42/status/815181276558852097   Permalink 5:12 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@J_Mareeswaran @nntaleb Obama used a law devised to fight Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan to fund Al-Qaeda in Syria. Now explain that. Permalink 2:22 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Beautiful recitation in the language of Christhttps://twitter.com/SYRIAC_MARONITE/status/814994491778236416   Permalink 5:14 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Two packages this PM pic.twitter.com/mIQUlH7xCr Permalink 2:51 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Near East (Mediterranean) and Middle East are different areas historically, ethnically, and culturally. @MattheWrite @EHSANI22 Permalink 2:20 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Hugh Kennedy has it completely wrong.The Arab penetration and Islamization of Syria were v. v. slow outside Damascushttps://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/814955122535124998   Permalink 2:05 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb That was my reaction to dialogue: – Why did Barack Hussain Obama betray the American public by financing AlQaeda? – Things are “complicated” Permalink 12:03 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb We asked Pinker Boy to back up his data & provide technical answers; his reply was *evasive* Englishmajor BS. pic.twitter.com/tkHaarn8DL Permalink 11:58 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Things are never complicated if one has principles. Permalink 11:36 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@GoldOverFiat “Only the autodidacts are free.” -@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/WvIBEFC50h Permalink 10:37 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 4) Year end 2016: Remember that Bloomberg is #FakeNews as @BV has not retracted & @Noahpinion… http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   Permalink 9:50 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3) Year end 2016 An antology of my squid ink episodes https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20squid%20OR%20ink&src=typd   Permalink 7:53 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Year end 2016: An antology of my twitter arguments as they often include “kapish”, “nonkapish” or “Mr.” https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20kapish%20OR%20nonkapish%20OR%20Mr.&src=typd   Permalink 7:52 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Year end 2016: A compilation of my philology tweets (Aramaic/Syriac, etc.) https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20syriac%20OR%20aramaic%20OR%20levantine&src=typd   Permalink 5:38 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Is computerized aid permissible? Used minimization under constraint @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/TZrQf7dwtY Permalink 5:24 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Hillary/Trump & Weightlifting;results are more significant (according to same norms) than 99% of published “science” pic.twitter.com/5qoWE7RTIa Permalink 3:38 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3-4 C later it was part of Babylon (Iraq), 5C later if was part of Persia (Iran), 2 C later it was part of …https://twitter.com/exjon/status/813923965299101696   Permalink 7:02 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb There is nothing empirical nor rigorous in use of psychoBS s.a. “Hedgehog/fox” outside of hunting. Kapish? @JackMcMackin Permalink 2:30 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This is almost right. Can do manually with some finessing. @carlfischer101 pic.twitter.com/NeLa2CQNfq Permalink 1:03 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Been getting that kind of BS since FBR “be nice to econs/bankers/journos” Wd being “nice” to the mafia change it?https://twitter.com/JackMcMackin/status/814570913697927168   Permalink 12:51 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb At gym: Asked weightlifters in basement if they voted Trump. 9 voted Trump, 1 Johnson. Upstairs, bourgeois floor (machines), 10/10 Hillary. Permalink 11:56 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I don’t like substance. I leave it to CNN. @FridaGhitis @BibekKafle12 Permalink 11:04 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I have discussed in The Black Swan 2nd ed. how Friedman & similar BS vendors got complexity backward. @BibekKafle12 @FridaGhitis Permalink 11:02 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Full body effort (sq/DL) at your 5 Max Rep (ALL muscles/bones challenged) switch gear via hormones or other. It’s informational. @gzibordi Permalink 11:01 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb While Friedman’s harmful ignorance isn’t curable, lack of jaw/neck definition can be slightly reduced by deadlifts.https://twitter.com/Slate/status/813812798660743168   Permalink 10:51 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Voila what our fearless group suspected is now getting confirmed!https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/814532154680082432   Permalink 10:29 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Was in Akkadian In Latin/Greek near but diff homonyms ≠ meaning In Semitic/Engl near homonyms often synonyms. @DeadLiftCapital @elie2222 Permalink 10:25 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Akkadian: darasu=> to pound. Syriac: both samekh Aramaic: samekh for one,shin other Arabic: both shin @elie2222 pic.twitter.com/nFmcHt8IOF Permalink 10:08 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Ammianus on the Syrian Rebels/ISIS: “People to have neither as friends nor as enemies”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/814457120628371457   Permalink 7:33 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Syrian author Ammianus Marcellinus describes the tribes of (now) East Syria: borders is along today’s Syrian war. pic.twitter.com/1pmIIC4Zey Permalink 5:04 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Convexity effects of rereading pic.twitter.com/t7QT5HIGgW Permalink 4:45 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nfergus More festive joy from the uncrowned king of Twitter: “Inequality and Skin in the Game” by @nntalebhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.bdw494r5a   Permalink 12:18 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb OK, solved (after some tinkering) @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/UhFkhUNSFk Permalink 5:39 PM – 28 Dec 2016

@joshfattore Markov Chains Explained Visually – This will help with Taleb’s piece. http://setosa.io/ev/markov-chains/   via @vicapow @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/813854886148374529   Permalink 4:40 PM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I challenge Gary Kasparov @Kasparov63 to spend a few days, even minutes, with the rebels. Otherwise he shd learn to keep his mouth shut.https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/813909779148111875   Permalink 8:53 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Wealth is not zero sum, inequality is by definition. @thoreau_devotee Permalink 6:45 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I added to the Inequality piece https://medium.com/@nntaleb/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.vhggmfpff   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qVELokYYji”>  pic.twitter.com/qVELokYYji Permalink 6:24 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Obama allowed bankers to have the LARGEST bonus pool in history, in 2010. Put interest rates at 0 for them.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/813938371550703616   Permalink 5:21 AM – 28 Dec 2016

Gad Saad, SITG, SaudiBarbaria, Michael Flynn, Christmas in Aleppo, Salafascists, Linda Problem, Arthur De Vany | Twitter

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@nntaleb Barack Hussain Obama: Created 10 Tr debt for ~11 m jobs Left us w/0000 more terrorists; he FUNDED AlQaeda. All talk. pic.twitter.com/gOMxDHAEsV Permalink 6:43 PM – 27 Dec 2016

@nntaleb One of the 2 papers debunking measures of inequality https://arxiv.org/pdf/1405.1791.pdf   Permalink 2:52 PM – 27 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I just published “Inequality and Skin in the Game”https://medium.com/p/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 1:11 PM – 27 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Here he is @GadSaad pic.twitter.com/1SlpPpES1G Permalink 12:09 PM – 27 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Lengthy deliberation; picked @GadSaad, Lebanese Jew, as representative of the looks of Jesus, well known Galilean.https://medium.com/opacity/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4#.ytdawnhcd   Permalink 12:07 PM – 27 Dec 2016

@nntaleb .@PetarLalovic Commission is NOT SITG Permalink 9:54 AM – 27 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Never use “contrarian” for this as it indicates an undiscriminating bias ag. prevailing wisdom,not focus on mistakeshttps://twitter.com/PurviRajani/status/813760625084076033   Permalink 7:01 AM – 27 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Inequality & #SkinintheGame, Ergodicity or why Trump’s financial difficulties helped election. Fixed Typos. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/V38h3XtXwi Permalink 6:48 AM – 27 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Inequality and #SkinintheGame, or why Trump’s financial difficulties helped election. For comments. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/5qIqSJUFNJ Permalink 6:33 AM – 27 Dec 2016

@nntaleb You mean there was a smear campaign agst Flynn because of his moral stand against AlQaeda by anonymous pple like you? @outsh1ned @GenFlynn Permalink 4:17 AM – 27 Dec 2016

@JSuchJ Wealthy is meaningless; use Unwealth: the difference, at any point in time, between what you have and what you would like to have (NNTaleb) Permalink 2:01 AM – 27 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The problem of the “opposition” is that Salafis always take over @CamilleOtrakji (Minority rule)https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.37yn9ribm   Permalink 7:12 PM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb My motto is “Never give crap and never take crap”. Version of the Golden/Silver rules to treat others the way you want to be treated. #SITG Permalink 4:07 PM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This assumes I am offended. Permalink 3:19 PM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Whenever someone offends me, I try to push his soul so low that he remembers me forever.https://twitter.com/descartesquotes/status/813511350685007872   Permalink 2:55 PM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I deleted a retweet bec. 1 of the 2 pictures was suspicious. Everyone here with self respect as a scholar or researcher shd do the same. Permalink 2:20 PM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb .@BenDiFrancesco @SEmpiricus @MaxCRoser Pasquale and I are putting a chapter on fake empiricism under fat tails @DrCirillo Permalink 1:45 PM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This means (as we expected) that SaudiBarbaria ran out of funds to finance AlQaeda & other rebels.https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/813493411449896960   Permalink 1:20 PM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb BShttps://twitter.com/rodrikdani/status/813485991117914113   Permalink 1:04 PM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb More precisely: every 1/10^-5 rise in crime lowers LE by .0065 of a STD (since STD ~10y). In other words, effect is *invisible* @MaxCRoser Permalink 11:35 AM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb God Bless You, Michael Flynn @GenFlynn. Turned out that he paid for his opposition to Obama’s support for AlQaeda! pic.twitter.com/vbExFLS8Ko Permalink 11:16 AM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Christmas in Aleppo: the will to live by a community Obama tried to eradicate. (Removed suspicious earlier pic) pic.twitter.com/nENwYLqVQo Permalink 10:47 AM – 26 Dec 2016

@financequant @nntaleb I have unilaterally established Saint Longinquus as the patron of the clueless #IYI. Permalink 10:36 AM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb To be polite, Daniel Dennet is not a good person to consult abt what is and what is not science, rigor,& probabilistic inference @Pianomover Permalink 8:50 AM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Scientism is to science what a Ponzi scheme is to an investment. Permalink 7:33 AM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb It is 6.5% of a year of LE, Permalink 6:09 AM – 26 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Why I spent 2 years reading 7 lines per month of legal books. Intro to #skininthegame pic.twitter.com/IC1EvIoqWu Permalink 5:27 AM – 26 Dec 2016

@DeadLiftCapital when a moron tries to “explain” Trump’s election with psychobabble. Great fodder for a @nntaleb eviscerationhttp://www.newyorker.com/science/maria-konnikova/the-psychological-research-that-helps-explain-the-election   Permalink 4:54 PM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb My attempt at the solution. pic.twitter.com/HKphFYrbXc Permalink 12:35 PM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Mr AlHethail, do you think that because some lowIQ Wahhabi heaps primitive abuse on twitter, I will immediately duck,or convert?@AlhethailMs Permalink 11:42 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The Aleppo victims that the MSM doesn’t discuss. They are tenacious. Respect!https://twitter.com/Nour_Samaha/status/813089678714867712   Permalink 11:38 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Compute the life expectancy lost between low (1 in 100K ) and high (20 in 100K). Will see through thishttps://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/811580087502045184   Permalink 8:51 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb So publisher sending contract for technical book with @DrCirillo (pending subtitle). We need to start working. pic.twitter.com/nJEvoX051p Permalink 8:43 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb How to NEVER engage Salafascists or AlQaeda covert promoters, as they will try to label you so you get ostracized. pic.twitter.com/ba8r5W4NMc Permalink 7:40 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@maxkeiser Christmas in Saudi Arabia? pic.twitter.com/eEWHYib04P Permalink 7:05 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Bullshitter. Where Xtians were minority, there were frequent pogroms. Only Ottomans protected them. See Damascus 1860! @NasserIbnHamad Permalink 6:53 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Mr Hamad, you need to explain logically why being agst Salafascists is “racist”& “hatred” @NasserIbnHamad not random negative words from dic Permalink 6:32 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ibn Hamad you need to go to some civilized place to take a class in logic before tweeting further incoherence. @NasserIbnHamad Permalink 6:25 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Explain *rationally* what is “racist” in exposing Salafis, a religious sect that DISCRIMINATES agt “infidels” & kills them @NasserIbnHamad Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb BS: Religious Sunnis are the ones who are biased against the rest of us “kafir”. Shiites sing Christmas carols in churches! @BIZRIOmar Permalink 6:08 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Added the heuristic that people who eat the same food in the Med look alike/have same body language.https://medium.com/opacity/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4#.atcgrpxc7   Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Who are you BSing? He respects Issa of the Quran yet calls Christians “infidels” (kuffars) & bans you from exchanging greetings. @BIZRIOmar Permalink 5:17 AM – 25 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Thanks, blushing, but no compliment counts as much as those related to deadlifting/risk taking.https://twitter.com/BulgakovsPilot/status/812856491229188096   Permalink 7:07 PM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Series of instructions by Sunni authority banning Muslims in West from Xmas wishes/symbols. Why not keep them home?https://twitter.com/MohamadAlarefe/status/811265514056060930   Permalink 6:46 PM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I tend to block pple who post BS on twitter. @ArthurShuey @FriedrichHayek Permalink 6:12 PM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I just published “No, Jesus Was not a ‘NonWhite’ Refugee who Would Have Voted for ”https://medium.com/p/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4   Permalink 3:11 PM – 24 Dec 2016

@michaelmitsakos Lebanese wine, the Incerto, and the impact of highly valuable gifts. Merry Christmas! @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/ZvmaG87D0y Permalink 12:21 PM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Josephus (correction prev was not Ammianus Marc.) pic.twitter.com/J9HWLR0CB9 Permalink 8:07 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Julia Domna, Julia Maesa, Ealagabalus again (Homs) pic.twitter.com/I3l9HpwMgv Permalink 7:41 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb And Zeno, Posidonius, and Ammianus Marcellinus who were Syro-Phoenicians pic.twitter.com/HiImS6rYnb Permalink 7:24 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Here are: Lucian (Syrian), Philip the Arab (who was Syrian, not Arab), Elagabalus (Syrian). BBC=BS @karimbitar pic.twitter.com/0gt4WeNp8R Permalink 7:08 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This is Septimus Severus who was W Semitic. Clearly these imbeciles on BBC don’t know nothing @karimbitar pic.twitter.com/HSK8iOtfAM Permalink 7:03 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This is Caracalla, 100% “Semitic” blood, Father Phoenician mother Syrian from Homs. @karimbitar pic.twitter.com/AeiApv4Rt6 Permalink 6:47 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This is how Hannibal, of W. Semitic stock ~ Jews, 2 c before Jesus looked like @karimbitar (conf by contemp coins) pic.twitter.com/IgdQpRScWx Permalink 6:38 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Centrally, Jesus separated holy from profane. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e#.rioj1qdpb   @Mcgrooooots @karimbitar Permalink 6:24 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Jesus would not have voted for neocon hawks, Salafi regimes, rent seeking “educated” bureaucrats & state-worshipping IYIs @karimbitar Permalink 5:47 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This is total BS, mixed with Identity Politics Jews were Mediterraneans, looked like Southern Europeans.https://twitter.com/karimbitar/status/812646558164516864   Permalink 5:29 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I meant psycholophasters @JamesPsychol @AndrewPMunro Permalink 5:25 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The philosophasters “proved” that high IQ kids “succeed” by getting PhDs & tenure: a circular def of success. @JamesPsychol @AndrewPMunro Permalink 5:24 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb It didn’t hit the IYI author that if success not “tied to IQ”, that this “IQ” is a wrong measure of intelligence.https://twitter.com/business/status/812487192211755008   Permalink 3:20 AM – 24 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Truths stated to come out of Aleppo. (Syrians speaking in front of camera mix Levantine w/Cl. Ar. Not the Lebanese).https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/812297239729160192   Permalink 7:18 PM – 23 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 2) Mr Sezgin, in addition to refs & genetics, can’t tell diff betw Turks & Armenians, Kurds,W. Syrian, or Ionian Greeks by looks @MhmtEminS Permalink 2:10 PM – 23 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 1) Mr Sezgin, Cavalli-Sforza et al. The History and Geography of Human Genes. Do you have better ref? @MhmtEminS @ektrit @vicmandrake Permalink 2:08 PM – 23 Dec 2016

@MIG29_ Aleppo’s small Catholic minority are preparing the Saint Elias Cathedral for its first Christmas mass in five years By @AFP pic.twitter.com/jnXOyv2RR4 Permalink 1:55 PM – 23 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Mainstream Media @gpbfinance Permalink 10:19 AM – 23 Dec 2016

@nntaleb MSM are low IQ to argue ag US-Russian normalization on grounds Putin is”autocratic”. Because China, SaudiBarbaria… pic.twitter.com/ouL4H2EHEt Permalink 10:16 AM – 23 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Copts/Maronites/Armenians bought into a theology because they didn’t want to be Greco-Romans; Iranians didn’t want to be Arabs. @mgpolitis Permalink 10:09 AM – 23 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Dear @KetchumPR, why did you stop smear campaign agst me/posting fakenews/mailing fake letters to NYU [on behalf of Monsanto] early in 2016? Permalink 8:58 AM – 23 Dec 2016

@nntaleb How dumb do policywonks (this guy & friends) have to be to miss that aphorism is abt Cincinnatus not abt love/hate?https://twitter.com/HumanomicsMap/status/812284206042742784   Permalink 8:11 AM – 23 Dec 2016

@nntaleb In Ireland, it is ethnic. I suspect the Irish wd have switched to restoration if the English stayed Catholic. @vicmandrake Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Many don’t get schisms are ETHNIC: Alawi, Shiite vs Sunni; Coptic, Maronite, Armenian, Syriac vs Greek Orth. The theology is epiphenomenal. Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Hilarious: @rcallimachi google translates “Agency” as “port” & “News Agency” as “depth” https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/812284387630977024   Permalink 6:41 AM – 23 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Shiites singing christmas carols in a Lebanese church http://go.shr.lc/2hVWwNq   Permalink 6:31 AM – 23 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The rule applies to businesses with skin in the game problems. @jhackIV Permalink 4:55 AM – 23 Dec 2016

@republicofmath #FF for great mathematics @CutTheKnotMath http://www.cut-the-knot.org   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/pHeFpPcM73″>  pic.twitter.com/pHeFpPcM73 Permalink 3:44 AM – 23 Dec 2016

@clairlemon It’s almost like the @washingtonpost want us to believe this guy is the victim pic.twitter.com/KCqms66dZS Permalink 1:23 AM – 23 Dec 2016

@BBassem7 The fact that Ken thinks Saudi is pressing for secular and free Syria is quite amusing https://twitter.com/kenroth/status/660721995810779136   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qXzHnynKYW”>  pic.twitter.com/qXzHnynKYW Permalink 5:17 PM – 22 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/749z8LaMma Permalink 5:13 PM – 22 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I give my students in quant-risk class the option to deadlift …https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/812075349043531777   Permalink 3:21 PM – 22 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The best researcher is the one who hates academia, the best politician the one who hates politics, best bureaucrat one who hates bureaucracy Permalink 1:55 PM – 22 Dec 2016

@BBassem7 I will be dedicating this thread to show you how most commentators on Syria have no clue what they are talking about. We start with @KenRoth pic.twitter.com/COlAxDcCK9 Permalink 8:23 AM – 22 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Remember! Terrorist is of same broad Salafi as: AlQaeda aided in Syria by Obama, UK, & MSM SaudiBarbaria Kapish?https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/811919538820411393   Permalink 5:47 AM – 22 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Linda problem means here that the statement doesn’t reveal TheDonald’s preferences rather the distribution of facial hair in population. Permalink 4:44 AM – 22 Dec 2016

@JamesMarsh79 Trump needs to get rates back to 3% and fire every PHD economist on the fed Permalink 7:29 PM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The answer is 5- Information Theory Permalink 7:19 PM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb In other words,if among pple Trump likes, there aren’t that many pple w/facial hair, it’s because there aren’t many w/facial hair in biz/gov Permalink 7:11 PM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Reminder: I block journos who use my handle/clutter my feed @thebamoor @mbaram @_SidVerma @TheStalwart @MarcHochstein @ejenk @MazMHussain Permalink 6:45 PM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Bingo! Information Theoretic view of things. Permalink 6:33 PM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This idiot just fell for the Linda Problem. There are not many people in biz & gov with a mustache/beard.https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/811723039113183232   Permalink 5:40 PM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb INCERTO 1- FBR Noise/Signal 2- TBS Tail events 3- Procrustes – Aphorisms 4- Antifragile – Convexity/Asymmetry 4b- Skin in the Game 5- Guess Permalink 4:28 PM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Randomhttps://twitter.com/gmax1mum/status/811728929123729408   Permalink 4:25 PM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The great Arthur De Vany is back; discusses the mechanism of robustness, fragility & aging. https://youtu.be/G92kHgieiKk   via @YouTube Permalink 1:17 PM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Isn’t the other side also abt dictatorship? @andresbejar3 Permalink 1:12 PM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Imbecile, go give your unsollicited advice to someone else. @VernonGlobal Permalink 10:12 AM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb You cannot hide some facts for too long. Syria, Aleppo: why did the MSM support Al Qaeda side of the story?https://twitter.com/BenSwann_/status/811413611625283586   Permalink 10:09 AM – 21 Dec 2016

@Tubbyturkey Christmas presents for my credit team @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/aWuYQQMTuu Permalink 9:36 AM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb That was before deadlifts. Today I would have broken the table. Permalink 9:26 AM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb How I exploded at economists & Rogoff in 2008https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-Km9qo5JyA   Permalink 9:17 AM – 21 Dec 2016

@NIRPUmbrella WATCH: #wednesdaywisdom – @nntaleb He even takes a jab at the #IYI @krogoff to boot. “Tie wearing Harvard economist.” pic.twitter.com/27ULarMksf Permalink 8:13 AM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Was taught that heuristic 33 ago by FatTonies. “Never hire a well dressed option trader”, DH 1996 #LindyEffecthttps://twitter.com/EmanuelDerman/status/811574580661944320   Permalink 6:54 AM – 21 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Statistics is NOT counting past events; sample mean != true mean. That applies even more to terrorism. @DrCirillo @TedGnuchev Permalink 6:47 AM – 21 Dec 2016

@ynotez @random_walker I think @nntaleb would agree with you :) pic.twitter.com/vUoEfdMZDo Permalink 6:30 AM – 21 Dec 2016

@dannyhakim “The Syngenta statement is not correct.” A look at an agchem company’s reinterpretation of a damaging study.http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/20/business/fact-check-paraquat-weed-killer-parkinsons.html?action=click&contentCollection=Business%20Day&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article   Permalink 4:25 AM – 21 Dec 2016