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#Salafascists, Bureaucrats, AlQaeda, #SaudiBarbaria, TRADING, John Gray, Chinese Censorship | Twitter

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@nntaleb Ironically, Algeria (who had an experience w/them) stands against the Salifis, while France supports them in Syria.https://twitter.com/GhassanDahhan/status/811216923644100608   Permalink 6:28 PM – 20 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 2) The biggest mistake with fat tails is that people (even statisticians) conflate “infinite variance” & “infinite variations” @DrCirillo Permalink 2:55 PM – 20 Dec 2016

@nntaleb .@stampede331 @Ayan_Dutta1981 Why don’t you fuck off and go read some author to satisfy your agenda. Permalink 2:49 PM – 20 Dec 2016

@nntaleb By writing… history books @byzantinepower Permalink 2:10 PM – 20 Dec 2016

@nntaleb .@jmaron9 ~ALL is never ALL, which IS the Black Swan idea. Permalink 2:08 PM – 20 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Starting to work with @DrCirillo on the Fat Tails book. Reverse engineered to help answer my exam questions. pic.twitter.com/uxkgyJF8yL Permalink 12:53 PM – 20 Dec 2016

@nntaleb #FooledbyRandomness is abt how many successful businessmen are not as skilled as we think. But I hold that ~all bureaucrats are unskilled. Permalink 11:59 AM – 20 Dec 2016

@kapitalust This seems like the type of chart that @nntaleb would make to show Skin in the Game vs. IYI (via Ray Dalio: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reflections-trump-presidency-one-month-after-election-ray-dalio  ) ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/P3MTryNuVG”>  pic.twitter.com/P3MTryNuVG Permalink 9:25 AM – 20 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 5) Statistical inference using background information/conditional probability, alas, cannot be made to be politically correct. Live with it. Permalink 5:45 AM – 20 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 4) Point of risktaking: had the perpetrator been a German librarian, the pseudoleft police would have kept using it for the rest of my life Permalink 4:47 AM – 20 Dec 2016

@ban_kanj 5 people arrested in Egypt for using children to stage fake news, on Aleppo.https://twitter.com/Independent/status/811186103172681728   Permalink 4:29 AM – 20 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Only vice versa @MCasiyo Permalink 6:55 PM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb At least they have skills in the real world: not IYIs & academics whose only skill is to write papers for academics.https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/809874861736816644   Permalink 4:36 PM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3)Turned out that I was right about the “religion”. I like to stick my neck before info is public, just for existential riskloving reasons. Permalink 3:22 PM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Watch @Charles_Lister trying to demonize @TulsiGabbard as her bill against AlQaeda cooperation will put him in jail. pic.twitter.com/mmZKaNzkCd Permalink 2:36 PM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Voila the promoter of Salafasism @Charles_Lister. I was, once again, right about my target.https://twitter.com/Gjoene/status/810955806220881921   Permalink 1:16 PM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The only terrorrist act in West by a Shiite in past few years was a German-Iranian NeoNazi Arian supremacist @ignaziano @RUFl0 Permalink 1:12 PM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb .@RUFl0 @ReutersWorld How many Levantine Christians,Armenians/ Ezidis/oth minorities have committed such acts in recent history? Exactly 0? Permalink 1:08 PM – 19 Dec 2016

@cjdelisle Given Taleb’s record for successfully picking unstable Goliaths to topple, things are not looking good for Saudi Arabia…https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/810650211282485248   Permalink 1:04 PM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb A drunken driver would have had his problem before the market. Eastern Europeans… rare but outlier @robert_we Permalink 12:57 PM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Simply 99% of such acts are by Salafascists. A deranged German yoga instructor is possible, but very low probability. Permalink 12:53 PM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb As a trader and probabilist, let me guess. Odds that he is not a middle aged German baker. I venture: Jihadi 20-40.https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/810947844387573760   Permalink 12:43 PM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Le Monde in headline doesn’t dare say “killed by a Jihadi” but “Killed by a bullet”. France MSM needs revamping!http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2016/12/19/turquie-l-ambassadeur-russe-grievement-blesse-apres-une-attaque-armee-a-ankara_5051340_3214.html   Permalink 12:06 PM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Juan Cole is mandatory reading. Regular Syrians in Syria are fed up w/Rebels.https://twitter.com/jricole/status/810916791639740416   Permalink 11:31 AM – 19 Dec 2016

@WeAreLebanon The rain pouring down the streets of #Beirut By @julianasfarah #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/1aPf7weJHz Permalink 11:14 AM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Mr Kessler, your reasoning abilities do not seem developed @OrenKessler Search for evidence/trail is NOT a conspiracy theory, even reverse. Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This is the murder of an emissary. Best example in 491BC Spartans executing/throwing down Persian embassy down the well. @holland_tom Permalink 9:41 AM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Mr Kessler you were not discussing my scholarship (you can’t) but my listing AQaeda operatives in Think Tanks. #incoherent @OrenKessler Permalink 9:40 AM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Mr @OrenKessler, had you done scholarship instead of journalistic balderdash, you wd have known abt academic freedomhttps://twitter.com/OrenKessler/status/810889689255256064   Permalink 9:34 AM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 6) “Intellectuals” are still under severe emotional distress; it’s not just Trump.The anxiety of seeing their map of reality upside down. Permalink 9:22 AM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony to N: Vilify *harmful* assholes for pleasure, to keep your training. But when you strike for revenge, wait, then do it only once. Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I got a “journo” who spreads fake news about Syria @borzou to defend himself by spreading #fakenews about me! @GuruAnaerobic @EHSANI22 Permalink 6:55 AM – 19 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Thanks! Signed in. Those who want to register, mail address: Remember911@fooledbyrandomness.com @dellajoNYC Permalink 5:22 PM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Thanks! Signed up! @MakeAusGr8Again Permalink 5:21 PM – 18 Dec 2016

@AssalehAmer nassim is the kind of fucking courageous people humanity needshttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/810653392603348993   Permalink 5:14 PM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The model is below; I have noproblem hiring investigators to get AlQaeda operatives in DC think tanks #skininthegamehttps://usrtk.org/our-investigations/   Permalink 5:10 PM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Fundamentalism starts with being literal about beliefs. @JAnthonyWare Permalink 5:03 PM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Starting a register/tracking AlQaeda think tank & journos agents 1) Sources of funds 2) Positions on Yemen/Syria… Volunteers. Funded by ME Permalink 4:57 PM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Nicene Creed: from Credere (or in Greek Pisteuo) doesn’t mean epistemic belief but doxastic, commitment to trust. @JAnthonyWare Permalink 4:25 PM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Ryan, the dogma of atheism is thinking beliefs *of others* are epistemic & LITERAL, like e=mc^2, not allegorical & functional @funtime_bobby Permalink 4:15 PM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb C’est la trahison des clercs! Resume de la guerre en Syrie. http://www.agoravox.fr/actualites/international/article/un-resume-de-la-guerre-civile-en-187595   Permalink 3:07 PM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Well kept secret: for selfowned people, unlike the rest, the ability to make money (hence make decisions) does not really decline with age. Permalink 1:11 PM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb OK, #Salafascism it is. Thanks everyone for voting.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/810101882559537152   Permalink 12:44 PM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The paper pic.twitter.com/I4tQKiPOe2 Permalink 7:28 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Finally, paper done. Found the exact bound for price of binary estimate & volatility of electoral vote! 538 klueless pic.twitter.com/utxXoe4T6A Permalink 7:26 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The #Salafascist cancer will stop w/the impending bankruptcy of #SaudiBarbaria. Good News: Solar has gamma (convex)https://twitter.com/business/status/809288801570983936   Permalink 5:57 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@alxpr1c3 @yaneerbaryam intelligence is rigorously described by @nntaleb (photo from @mdvex ) pic.twitter.com/QCS626hgqU Permalink 5:17 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3/Trading and real science (not science journalism/college scientism) are same. Feynman:”Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.” Permalink 5:05 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb “Bulls make money Bears make money Sheep get slaughtered.” Fat Tony, in #Skininthegame Permalink 4:42 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Best training ever for rigor & critical reasoning is…TRADING. You can ONLY survive long term by going against wrong CONSENSUS by “experts” Permalink 4:29 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Best training ever for rigor & critical reasoning is…TRADING. You can ONLY survive long term by going against wrong CONSENSUS by experts Permalink 4:29 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb PETER HITCHENS: Amid the bombs of Aleppo, all you can hear are the lies http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2016/12/peter-hitchens-amid-the-bombs-of-aleppo-all-you-can-hear-are-the-lies.html   Permalink 4:23 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb No, imbecile, it is how religions interact w/non Moslems (takfiris), not their eschatology. @ericswerdlin Permalink 4:12 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The Romans treated harshly religions that *rejected* other rituals (s.a. Christianity). For the rest, everything goes. @crd37 Permalink 4:09 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The East Aleppo Rebels ARE Al Qaeda. American elites are either idiots or influenced by PR shills for Saudi Barbaria. @JohnGeard Permalink 3:51 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Iran/Shiites vs West is geopolitics, w/social-religious tolerance. Salafis vs West is social-religious incompatibility (hidden by oil $)! Permalink 3:37 AM – 18 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Only allowed homeopathy in place of placebo for restricted circumstance. Rationalwiki is fake news! @borzou @GuruAnaerobic @EHSANI22 Permalink 4:54 PM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Fabricator @borzou is using fake news rationalwiki. This is what I WROTE abt Homeopathy @GuruAnaerobic @EHSANI22 pic.twitter.com/J4NeSpfRqs Permalink 4:53 PM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 5) Gray discussed 19th C Russian writers who were like me, both Orthodox & classical pagans, e.g. Merezhkovsky Permalink 3:56 PM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 4) Pagans unlike monotheists and atheists don’t have heresies. Permalink 3:27 PM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3) A long, 4 hour conversation with Isiah Berlin would consist in 3 hours and 50 minutes of gossip. Permalink 3:26 PM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Michael Oakeshot the philosopher of small “c” conservatism had at some point six mistresses, all wives of leftist professors. Permalink 3:21 PM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 1/ Conversation with John Gray. Any “thinker” who strays from the allowed script experiences something similar to leprosy. Permalink 3:19 PM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb John Gray in New York for some flaneuring in spite of the weather. pic.twitter.com/LRj4FiGod0 Permalink 10:52 AM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The Fox/Hedgehog split has turned into big BS. It works on narrow local separable noncomplex system related issues.https://twitter.com/PrometheusAM/status/810162845912440832   Permalink 8:43 AM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The #Lindyeffect what they learned is still valid today; what your children learn outside math survives a few yearshttps://twitter.com/vadiboom/status/810152264719618052   Permalink 8:08 AM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb *By definition* a Salafi is *not allowed* to think in a way that strays an inch from the 7 C. “ancestors” Generations not allowed to think! Permalink 6:20 AM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Note the point that Salafism is NOT a “religion”. It is a criminal party.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e#.n8co2bl59   Permalink 5:54 AM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Reason the Salafis didn’t kill more pple in history is low IQ, sheer military incompetence & lack of weapons. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabi_sack_of_Karbala   Permalink 5:41 AM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb “In the box GMOs” yes works very very well as no tail risk/complexity effects. @MellowOchre Permalink 5:23 AM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb My problem is that as bad as Hitler’s Nazis were, Salafism is one order of magnitude worse, e.g. ISIS. @XFaure Permalink 4:43 AM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Jihad is positive; in Arabic means the exact opposite: effort for improvement => Ijtihad = improve religion. @InternetHindus Permalink 4:42 AM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The “left”s infatuation w/AlQaeda can be broken by a LABEL Islamofascism is unfair (incl Shiites & secular Sunnis) Permalink 4:38 AM – 17 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Meeting the anonymous @EHSANI22 for a conversation about the IYIs we have been fighting on twitter. pic.twitter.com/sL8fU29L9d Permalink 6:18 PM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Techne episteme. We messed up the balance! @TheMainstand Permalink 3:55 PM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Our precautionary principle page / busting GMOs http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   @PaesurBiey Permalink 3:48 PM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Educated in 1860 was educated Today educated is starting to be overeducated & brainwashed, just like overfed, overprotected, & overmedicated Permalink 3:47 PM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Fake journalists/Al-Qaeda apologists s.a. @borzou call pple “sectarian” and “racist” when exposed, use identity politics to hide @EHSANI22 Permalink 3:03 PM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb ~40% of GMO studies have financial conflicts of interesthttps://www.yahoo.com/news/many-gmo-studies-financial-conflicts-interest-201413164.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw   Permalink 2:43 PM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb It all started that because pseudolefts are swayed by terms, to use Islamofascism, unfair for Islam. Now Salafifascism works. @Priapus_D Permalink 12:54 PM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb We need a sect/designation “Sunni nonWahabi” to simplify. @Priapus_D Permalink 12:30 PM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb My point is to narrow down the designation “Islam” to specific sects that include Wahabis and Salafis, exclude Shiites who have none of that Permalink 12:01 PM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb .@holland_tom @Super_ayatollah @RussianCarousel @JingDoc Tom this one can download from Univ. pic.twitter.com/kMgXhlBjIb Permalink 11:42 AM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Shiites are very, very tolerant w/Christians. Time for the MSM to substitute “Islamic Jihad” w/ “Sunni Jihad”https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/809820099909742593   Permalink 10:08 AM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Friends, does anyone knows well Popper’s explicit discussion of “causality”? Well enough to summarize in a tweet? Permalink 9:33 AM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb In @newtgingrich IYI mvt, identify operatives giving cover to Al Qaeda/Jihad: @shadihamid @MiddleEastInst @borzou pic.twitter.com/hmvMKww70K Permalink 8:48 AM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Most IYIs who are pro-mass immigration never went drinking with an immigrant cab driver. #Skininthegame.https://twitter.com/foxjust/status/809778255914037248   Permalink 7:22 AM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Looks like the Syrian War summary is spreading…https://twitter.com/newtgingrich/status/809759045330542594   Permalink 7:13 AM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Added this detail to the summary of the Syrian war https://medium.com/opacity/the-syrian-war-condensed-a-more-rigorous-way-to-look-at-the-conflict-f841404c3b1d#.wwwpzah0r   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y4P1ymXkXl”>  pic.twitter.com/y4P1ymXkXl Permalink 5:56 AM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb .@HappyRussians I was being censored IN NEW YORK for a US book! Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb .@alejand06640904 @PVanderHallen Marsalia Marsa-El comes from port of God in Phoenicien. Ramatuelle: Ramat El, Hill of God Permalink 5:31 AM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I forgot that Syria was in The Black Swan. I need to add my warning about the collapse to the Medium piece.https://twitter.com/xkape/status/809743816521580544   Permalink 5:29 AM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I forgot: Fight with Chinese censorship. Vastly more sophisticated than the low IQ stooges of Saudi Barbariahttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/809591402699038720   Permalink 4:48 AM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The only compliments I care about relate to courage. Intellect is a cheap currency.https://twitter.com/rwthewayIseeit/status/809602800921415680   Permalink 4:46 AM – 16 Dec 2016

@nntaleb My 2016 fights: GMOs, DONE (biz is busting) IYI academobureaucrats, DONE (in mourning/hiding) Islamofascist shills, IN PROGRESS Good year! Permalink 6:50 PM – 15 Dec 2016

@nntaleb My friend @Ehsani22 is Aleppine, being lectured by busted Al Qaeda promoter Borzou Daraghi abt his own city.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/809155940746489857   Permalink 5:10 PM – 15 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Shadi Hamid’s positions shows that he wants the U.S. to send help to ALQAEDA of Sept 11. He is a cryptoIslamist. Shame! @KS1729 @shadihamid Permalink 2:05 PM – 15 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Great: *Intellectual Yet Idiot* piece making it to policy, leading to purges! https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.33vi3omtv   @Scaramucci ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/VrN93LovGV”>  pic.twitter.com/VrN93LovGV Permalink 11:52 AM – 15 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I name names elsewhere & uncover think tank fabricators. Check twitter feed @falameufilho Permalink 10:17 AM – 15 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Marseilles (Marsa) and Ramatuelle are Phoenician names @ekinilvalentino Permalink 7:32 AM – 15 Dec 2016

@nntaleb There were Phoenician settlements among the Ionians, such as Miletus. There were also (I suspect) in Crete @alejand06640904 @PVanderHallen Permalink 7:31 AM – 15 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Read tweet as: Greeks mostly East, Phoenicians mostly West. @InjuredThales @PVanderHallen Permalink 6:23 AM – 15 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Plus Ibiza, Cadix, Catalunia, etc. It is an overall tendency. The Phoenicians were pushed West by the Greeks. @PVanderHallen Permalink 6:12 AM – 15 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Greek settls: Lybia, Syria, Alexandria, E Sicily, S Italy. Phoenicians: N. Africa, Spain, Malta, Sardinia, Corsica, W Sicily @PVanderHallen Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The absurdity is that Hannibal, a Phoenician from the West, took refuge in Syria, which was then Greek. Permalink 6:04 AM – 15 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Mediterranean du Jour: The Phoenicians had a tendency to build settlements West and North. The Greeks went South and East. Permalink 5:50 AM – 15 Dec 2016

@Kaushal_75 Ah the lucid prose this man @nntaleb can write and what atrocious obscure tweets!!https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.croixxv1o   Permalink 5:31 AM – 15 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I just published “The Syrian War Condensed: A more Rigorous Way to Look at the Conflict”https://medium.com/p/the-syrian-war-condensed-a-more-rigorous-way-to-look-at-the-conflict-f841404c3b1d   Permalink 3:41 AM – 15 Dec 2016

@ibrahimshahed2 “final messages” in #Aleppo (@Mr_Alhamdo @Linashamy @BilalKareem @AlabedBana) From @IntheNow_tweet by @AnissaNow pic.twitter.com/Lc85RkdxvD Permalink 2:08 AM – 15 Dec 2016

@kyleschen a while ago i collected 44 of my favorite @nntaleb tidbits, here they are:http://thoughtcatalog.com/kyle-eschenroeder/2014/03/44-thought-provoking-aphorisms-we-should-all-live-by/   Permalink 5:05 PM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Application of the minority rule: all it takes is a ~3% minority for “Merry Christmas” to become “Happy Holidays”https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.h7vafrmnd   Permalink 3:11 PM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb For many brain tumors, there is statistical significance. But no clear result for others yet because very few trials. @saifedean @ascarbs Permalink 2:50 PM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Les journalistes francais ne savent pas faire la difference entre affaires et rentes de situation etatique. Permalink 12:02 PM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb C’est faux. Trump s’entourre de gens d’affaires, pas de bureaucrates, comme promis- ceux qui font tourner le monde.http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2016/12/14/l-equipe-trump-attachez-vos-ceintures_5048768_3232.html   Permalink 11:59 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Should I change the website for the Real World Risk Certificate? “Temporary” lasted 1y! http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 11:35 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@letwit @nntaleb I linked to your Syria war table on a pro-gov & a pro-rebel reddit: got banned on both! I think it’s a good sign. Permalink 8:34 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb You may not get rich by being honorable; but you will probably stay rich by being upright. Permalink 7:11 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb It was not the 2012 edition but the 2016 reprint. @guardianhttps://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/dec/14/nassim-nicholas-taleb-hits-out-at-chinese-printers-censorship-of-his-book?CMP=twt_a-world_b-gdnworld   Permalink 6:57 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The reason Islamists took over the rebels in Syria: Minority rule. Add an Islamist to a nonIslamist group and…https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.4tt8tqes1   Permalink 6:41 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb Explains Syrian Conflict In One Propaganda Free Chart http://swarajyamag.com/insta/nassim-nicholas-taleb-explains-syrian-conflict-in-one-propaganda-free-chart   via @swarajyamag Permalink 6:02 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb .@IsikOzturkeri This was corrected in V2. My spellchecker defauts to SaudiBarbaria Permalink 6:00 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb A more rigorous look at the Syrian conflict (Version 2, corrected thanks to comments) pic.twitter.com/1aPbYM4Psi Permalink 5:39 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Table is comparative: As bad as left column (Assad) can be, there’s nothing on right col (rebels) that is not worse pic.twitter.com/o4VaMwOM5I Permalink 5:23 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb RIP Tom Schelling. You were deeply right about the world. And you were a true scholar.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/808871100335669248   Permalink 5:06 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Draft of a table to make the Syrian conflict clear & remove propaganda financed by SaudiBarbaria pic.twitter.com/Dvf7AJ59lN Permalink 4:41 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Robert Fist has the courage to debunk the MSM bullshit. Your rebels “heroes” slaughtered civilians pic.twitter.com/KnGBJAtdtU Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Dec 2016

@illacertus If your anger decreases with time, you did injustice; if it increases, you suffered injustice. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) Permalink 5:29 PM – 13 Dec 2016

@IntheNow_tweet Independent Canadian journo totally crushes MSM reporter on what’s actually going on in Syria pic.twitter.com/DVbd1LxEzD Permalink 11:00 AM – 13 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Robert Fisk has it right. There is more than one truth to tell in the terrible story of Aleppohttp://www.independent.co.uk/voices/aleppo-falls-to-syrian-regime-bashar-al-assad-rebels-uk-government-more-than-one-story-robert-fisk-a7471576.html   Permalink 9:39 AM – 13 Dec 2016

@yaneerbaryam Looking forward to the winter school, a chance to talk about important global developments with great speakers http://necsi.edu/education/school.html   Permalink 5:48 AM – 13 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Ancient Philology Du jour: دفتر from Greek for “second”, or “to repeat”.https://twitter.com/mMeyer62/status/808656481583333376   Permalink 4:57 AM – 13 Dec 2016

@nntaleb U.S. author rejects Chinese censorship over Taiwan | Taiwan News http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3050598   Permalink 4:36 AM – 13 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I added a comment to the Syria piece. Salafism is too dangerous to let my grudge rule https://medium.com/opacity/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.fc4knfg4w   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/tRXZcVLtXp”>  pic.twitter.com/tRXZcVLtXp Permalink 4:05 AM – 13 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Assad the father blew up our house in Amioun in 1982. Yet I will not use this to stand w/the Jihadis. @DalrympleWill Permalink 3:59 AM – 13 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Putting the Syrian conflict under some serious auditing / shedding Saudi PR firms https://medium.com/opacity/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.fc4knfg4w   @DalrympleWill Permalink 3:51 AM – 13 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Even my friend the great & insightful William Darlymple fell for alQaeda propaganda. These are Qaeda fighters. @DalrympleWill Permalink 3:40 AM – 13 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Most authors I was told complied. I assume hundreds kept their mouth shut. Not me. @yangfulei Permalink 2:58 AM – 13 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Thank you @SAlhir for exploring the concept furtherhttps://twitter.com/_Antifragility_/status/808617994276536321   Permalink 2:56 AM – 13 Dec 2016

@nntaleb A simpler solution a precision brain surgery on @LouiseMensch to improve her reasoning abilities.https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/808466941434359808   Permalink 4:50 PM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This has nothing to do with Taiwan, but with censoring a US writer in the US!https://twitter.com/lilith289/status/808454534129446912   Permalink 3:42 PM – 12 Dec 2016

@ceydak Must read.. via @EHSANI22 pic.twitter.com/wdsEiJSPj9 Permalink 12:47 PM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Lindy Effect: if you make it 1000 years you have >95% chance proba to make it 2000 @holland_tom Permalink 10:15 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The outrage is that a *US* author has his books *sold in the US* censored by the government of China because the book is printed there! Permalink 10:02 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Someone said that I am intransigent because I have F*** You money. No no no I have F*** You money because I have always been intransigent. Permalink 9:56 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@StephenFleming PSA: @nntaleb ’s superb “Antifragile” is on sale for two bucks in the Kindle store today. No excuses now.https://read.amazon.com/kp/embed?asin=B0083DJWGO&preview=newtab&linkCode=kpe&ref_=cm_sw_r_kb_dp_6aTtyb3E8A4PM&tag=techsquare-20   Permalink 8:29 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb … εἰ γὰρ αὐτῆς πειρήσαιο, οὐκ ἂν δόρασι συμβουλεύοις ἡμῖν περὶ αὐτῆς μάχεσθαι, ἀλλὰ καὶ πελέκεσι.”@jgmahoney @saifedean Permalink 6:42 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Any human who decides to voluntarily become a slave for enhanced lifestyle will *always* stay a slave, regardless of wealth. @saifedean Permalink 6:03 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Newt’s position repeatedly is that Trump should avoid hiring IYIs. @GadSaad @newtgingrich @seanhannity Permalink 5:53 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@ashokatluri @realDonaldTrump, you have company!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/808297983246823426   Permalink 5:42 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Random House was supportive and we changed printer!https://twitter.com/Newyorkez/status/808299597579816961   Permalink 5:17 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This was the printer *in China* for US edition of #AntiFragile doing censorship of works published *in the U.S.*!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/808297983246823426   Permalink 5:14 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Printer of #Antifragile in China asked me to replace “Taiwan” w/”China, Taiwan”. I (angrily) said “No censorship!” pic.twitter.com/CDqcBV4fnW Permalink 5:10 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Yes, #skininthegame, but not necessarily everywhere pic.twitter.com/nPcuCJmWda Permalink 4:24 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb There is something shabby and frankly pathological in the “left”‘s romance with Sunni Islamists.https://twitter.com/salamamoussa/status/808267859969318914   Permalink 3:34 AM – 12 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I much prefer Andy Bolton to John Bolton. Sorry, but I do.https://twitter.com/andybolton1008/status/789138860055728129   Permalink 6:11 PM – 11 Dec 2016

@thackerpd Why do you polling guys still have jobs? And if you still have jobs, why are you tweeting with such confidence?https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/807960202821648384   Permalink 12:12 PM – 11 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Evidence that @sapinker is a charlatan. He wrote this AFTER our papers Nontechnical paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/K6kmjqDIgx”>  pic.twitter.com/K6kmjqDIgx Permalink 8:52 AM – 11 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Reviewers/BSvendors have trouble getting real life & why I will not let them review my next book @Scaramucci pic.twitter.com/yCcv1DdB4G Permalink 7:23 AM – 11 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony!https://twitter.com/gabrielmgst/status/807924860135632896   Permalink 5:22 AM – 11 Dec 2016

@DavidBCollum And not reading @nntaleb’s “Fooled by Randomness”…https://twitter.com/Independent/status/807927917120393216   Permalink 4:43 AM – 11 Dec 2016

@nntaleb About anyone who knows anything in finance spent time w/Wall Street firms. I worked for 5 (UBS,CSFB) yet fiercely independent @Scaramucci Permalink 1:22 PM – 10 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Respect is fragile & path dependent; regaining respect is much harder than gaining it.https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/807591808448466945   Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Never expected guiltless Schadenfreude: Krugman *defines* the IYI Intellectual Yet Idiot https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.u40oqpe53  https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/807591808448466945   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 5 additional books I recommended pic.twitter.com/hhRW6Kabtg Permalink 4:16 AM – 10 Dec 2016

@nntaleb THE GORDIAN KNOT: Why Donaldo should never hire an academic economist except to take exams. pic.twitter.com/ucfbDqe863 Permalink 3:22 AM – 10 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This has been going on since Antiochus Epiphanes! Random harassing raids by desert fighters on Syrian border towns.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/807370864387887104   Permalink 4:07 PM – 9 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Hiring academics for economic advice is equivalent to hiring Trappist monks for special military operations.https://twitter.com/econhedge/status/807251823182704640   Permalink 2:14 PM – 9 Dec 2016

@GhassanDahhan I think the history of the Syrian uprising needs a lot of revision. Read this incredible story.http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/syria-civil-war   Permalink 8:13 AM – 9 Dec 2016

@MaxAbrahms The truth is Aleppo citizens were never as anti-Assad as mainstream media tried so hard to get people to believe.https://twitter.com/maytham956/status/807178471600431104   Permalink 6:13 AM – 9 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Even the wise Simon Schama fell for Qatari financed lies by the fraudster Charles Lister.https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/805481780216299521   Permalink 4:48 AM – 9 Dec 2016

@nntaleb You can manipulate the uncorruptible by giving him the chance to refuse a bribe. Permalink 4:02 AM – 9 Dec 2016

@nntaleb You can grease the palm of the uncorruptible by giving him the chance to refuse a bribe. Permalink 4:00 AM – 9 Dec 2016

Qatar/Saudi Barbaria, Iain McGilchrist, @Expedia, Peace, #NYT, Hammurabi’s Code, Policy Goons

Leave a reply

@nntaleb 12 months @Jmanos195Manos Permalink 12:54 PM – 8 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Waited 12 m for this: Amsterdam has, for the nondietaryfatphobic, the best steak in the world (Holstein). pic.twitter.com/Wai9d048Y8 Permalink 12:34 PM – 8 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Evidence @djrothkopf boss of Foreign Policy is for sale. Shameful that our foreign policy is manipulated by Jihadis.https://twitter.com/bitsquare_/status/806924154171637760   Permalink 10:15 AM – 8 Dec 2016

@nntaleb You can start filtering out Mainstream Media by blocking any article w/”populist” or “populism” in it, citing someone from a think tank. Permalink 9:43 AM – 8 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Rich people aren’t necessarily incorruptible; but they can be much, much more expensive to bribe. Permalink 3:36 PM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This reveals much. Names named: the way to go. Includes Rothkopf How Saudi Arabia captured Washington http://www.vox.com/2016/3/21/11275354/saudi-arabia-gulf-washington?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=feature%3Afixed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter   via @voxdotcom Permalink 3:29 PM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb How many believe this independent BS? Fraudster @emile_hokayem secretly paid by Bahrain for “independent” promotion https://twitter.com/emile_hokayem/status/806593003615899650   Permalink 2:09 PM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 1/Western Syria’s population [C on the map] act, look, & eat like Mediterraneans/Southern Europeans, includes Sunnishttps://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/806497987404906497   Permalink 9:54 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Now this explains bombardment of pro-Jihadi articles by this goon: @emile_hokayem who works there!!! Shame! Shame!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/806510667087876096   Permalink 9:37 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Back office people don’t know that there is a difference between front and back office. Everyone else does.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/806487322728472576   Permalink 7:12 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb They tried to hide it! Never trust thinktanks. British thinktank received £25m from Bahraini royals, docs revealhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/06/british-thinktank-iiss-received-25m-from-bahraini-royals-documents-reveal?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 6:48 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Physicists take something complicated & make it simpler. Psychologists take something very complicated & make it even more complicated. Permalink 5:39 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Recent rebellion/Trump: Front office pple (most of us) don’t want to be controlled by *back office* clercs. Kapish?https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.yy4z897cd   Permalink 5:15 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@CDcaritas @leverageisgreat @nntalebhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/06/british-thinktank-iiss-received-25m-from-bahraini-royals-documents-reveal   Permalink 12:45 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Think tanks financed by Qatar/Saudi Barbaria want people to believe this crap. Many do!https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/syrian-president-bashar-al-assad-bigger-threat-than-isis?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 12:33 AM – 7 Dec 2016

@RiskMinds RiskMinds Live starts in 1 hr! It’s not too late to register to watch @nntaleb and others live from #RISKMINDS: http://spr.ly/60168yy38   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nZ85h5jYcr”>  pic.twitter.com/nZ85h5jYcr Permalink 11:10 PM – 6 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Transforming an unbounded into a bounded martingale (by Ito’s lemma), thanks to airline delays. pic.twitter.com/LXxzhTh4k8 Permalink 4:28 AM – 6 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Can someone explain to this fellow that forall their flaws dentists know their stuff >> than policymakers/Krugmans?https://twitter.com/louis_giannone/status/805936971591938048   Permalink 5:03 PM – 5 Dec 2016

@jgmarcel () “experienced” & “professional” politicians are just as desirable as professional lovers, that is, prostitutes. — Nassim Taleb (@nntaleb) pic.twitter.com/rc4kjcHphc Permalink 4:00 PM – 5 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Almost…https://twitter.com/bryanappleyard/status/805885857416810496   Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Debunkkng conspiracy Assad-ISIShttps://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/805816603489292288   Permalink 12:56 PM – 5 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The episodic John Gray appreciation dinner w/ @BryanAppleyard @rorysutherland & McGilchrist at Gray’s favorite rest pic.twitter.com/vz3a4PRLYv Permalink 12:54 PM – 5 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Another squid ink risotto. Pasta is better. pic.twitter.com/fMdTF5DkUk Permalink 6:02 AM – 5 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Squid ink risotto pic.twitter.com/y4a0V6PzIm Permalink 5:44 AM – 4 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The point of paying is to guarantee a room: no optionality. There is an asymmetry: if the client cancels he pays… not them! @Expedia Permalink 5:03 PM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Beware @Expedia. Prepaid a suite in London, very late arrival &… the hotel sends me to another part of town, tiny room w/o refund. Permalink 4:51 PM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb People discovered the NYT was effectively fiction; trash fiction sells the most! https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/804450963268444160   Permalink 5:45 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Dear @stevenstrogatz , an accolade coming from a mathematician is worth >10^3 compliments by other mortals. Permalink 5:36 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@dellajoNYC @borzou @jackshafer He attacked you because you are a propagandist for Al Qaeda, the folks who gave us 9/11, and therefore human skum. FYI. Permalink 5:34 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Number of casualties is not *statistical* data/estimates? Explains Brexit: Brussels IYIs shd limit activities to driving Uber c (carefully).https://twitter.com/nicolas_veron/status/805032648959787009   Permalink 5:13 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The day flight to London. pic.twitter.com/aWy6RcaK2Z Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Exactly: “People are better neighbors than roommates” @JohnGaltPattaya Permalink 4:43 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Utopism: make pple hold hands & sing mawkish songs Realism: structures to allow interactions w/o harm:#skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/804949462217007104   Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Mr @borzou-fabricator, did you realize you called Trump a tyrant when he has never held office. Did they have basic IQ screening at the FT? Permalink 4:11 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Philology du Jour: a word (the obvious) that has survived 4000 years in Semitic languages. “N***” in Akkadian… pic.twitter.com/f9ig37tszx Permalink 1:25 AM – 3 Dec 2016

@alxpr1c3 @nntaleb a #vianegativa approach would then be – the aim of “peace” is to avoid lethal conflicts? Permalink 11:35 PM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The aim of “peace” is to make people interract while hating one another the way the French hate Germans/English, not to sing campfire songs. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/804335904009711616   Permalink 11:24 PM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb You can spot a (low IQ) crypto-Jihadi such as @sahdihamid at his geopolitization of conflict ag. Islamists.https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/804779650463531008   Permalink 5:01 PM – 2 Dec 2016

@cdipaola62 @nntaleb @SteveRattner teaching birds 2 fly. Citizens don’t need complex formulas to detect BS of IYI’s who use first order math to scare. Permalink 4:58 PM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Elementary 2nd order accounting: Employees in US happen to *pay* taxes; or spend money => others who pay taxes.https://twitter.com/SteveRattner/status/804414616520359937   Permalink 12:56 PM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb If, against experience, you still read the #NYT, remember it was the conveyor of the most destructive fake news: Iraq. @nyinvesting @han0z Permalink 12:04 PM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame shows how, in absence of saints, we’d rather pick the rich (contact w/reality), to those who *want* to get rich. @Scaramucci Permalink 10:56 AM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The other argument is that those who *need* a salary are vulnerable to lobbying /revolving door bribery.https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/804131401528287232   Permalink 10:33 AM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Yes, Gibbon has mistakes. So does Thucydides! On top of his skeptical charm, he led me to find holes in his acct. My favorite prose style! Permalink 8:06 AM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Does this make the “news” part of Holywood?https://twitter.com/ancientsyrian/status/804690299821891584   Permalink 6:41 AM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The disproof of a fabrication is not as visible as the fabrication. Why U.S. ‘News’ Media Shouldn’t Be Trusted http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/12/02/why-us-news-media-shouldnt-trusted.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter   Permalink 4:05 AM – 2 Dec 2016

@nntaleb When I stood next to H’s code felt knowing it in Akkadian & reciting it w/original sounds. Code abt #skininthegame requires authenticity. pic.twitter.com/4ggFhO8K6v Permalink 7:16 PM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Conspiracy theory Assad=ISIS is a great IQ test: it proves incapacity to make up something remotely plausible.https://twitter.com/BradRHoff/status/804509487713439746   Permalink 6:46 PM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Finally got to read Hammurabi in the original Semitic rythm (thanks to the method of Albert Naccache) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/hammurabi.mp3   Permalink 5:58 PM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb People are starting to understand the difference between “denocracy” and governance @normonics @bill_easterly Permalink 10:29 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Only Gibbon: Twenty-two acknowledged concubines, and a library of sixty-two thousand volumes, attested the variety.. pic.twitter.com/GeCTFO9cyc Permalink 8:38 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb When people ask me “what should I read”, I used to avoid responding. Now, here is something necessary in anyone’s ed pic.twitter.com/mxmabxeiTG Permalink 8:16 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Effectively there was *inverse* ethnic cleansing after Qaeda left Aleppo.https://twitter.com/CamilleOtrakji/status/804342907960487936   Permalink 7:16 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb COMPLEX SYSTEMS: Problem of Oslo is top-down (diplomatic) solution for bottom-up problem. @yaneerbaryam pic.twitter.com/KNQCgGTzx8 Permalink 6:46 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@internetactu Le plus intolérant l’emporte toujours : la dictature de la plus petite minorité par @nntaleb http://www.internetactu.net/a-lire-ailleurs/le-plus-intolerant-lemporte-toujours-la-dictature-de-la-plus-petite-minorite/   Permalink 5:33 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Gingrich doesn’t want IYIs in government. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.qd6ryx4q4  https://twitter.com/BoustanyMazen/status/804187163122397184   Permalink 5:01 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Gingrich doesn’t want IYIs in government. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.qd6ryx4q4   https://twitter.com/BoustanyMazen/status/804187163122397184   Permalink 5:01 AM – 1 Dec 2016

@nntaleb A visit to the NYU Philosophy department (logic) wd confirm that butchering, whether for 8 or 15 y, = butcher. Kapish? @ianbremmer Permalink 2:55 PM – 30 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Yet Barak Hussain Obama is not called “the butcher of Washington”.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/804049099528040448   Permalink 11:48 AM – 30 Nov 2016

@DrCirillo If you missed it, my recent not-too-technical paper on armed conflicts and their tail risk, joint with @nntaleb. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2876315   Permalink 10:07 AM – 30 Nov 2016

@nntaleb People in political “science” & policy wonks such must attend so they know why we think they are clueless.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/803987190980235264   Permalink 7:42 AM – 30 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Friends, anyone knows of a transcription of the Accadian of Hammurabi’s Law into Hebrew or another Semitic script? Permalink 7:40 AM – 30 Nov 2016

@nntaleb De Finetti was a smart cookie. How to forecast elections. pic.twitter.com/w7d050sQgT Permalink 4:55 AM – 30 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The tragedy of our time is the monoculture of ideas: all people are forced to believe the *same* bullshit. Permalink 6:42 AM – 29 Nov 2016

@MaxAbrahms It’s funny when media outlets interview multiple fellows from the same think tank for intellectual diversity. Permalink 4:22 AM – 29 Nov 2016

@nntaleb #IDreamOfAWorld where “science” promoters understand the difference between science and scientism.https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/802673096876494849   Permalink 8:03 AM – 28 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Probability & Medicine: Presenting 2 papers at U Penn S Med at 12 noon P-value https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532v3.pdf   Antifragility http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/medicine.pdf   Permalink 8:01 AM – 28 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Voila! “Small is beautiful” in the moralists! Vauvenargues: “men are not born to love large things”. #LindyEffect pic.twitter.com/W7WsC0cahK Permalink 3:10 AM – 28 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The only fiction I read in 2016 was reports on the Syrian “moderate” rebels.https://twitter.com/tylercowen/status/802130988407070720   Permalink 6:32 PM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Ready! pic.twitter.com/losrlULOtl Permalink 5:06 PM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Mr Borzou Daragahi, it is much, much more difficult to bullshit a statistician than your followers. Kapish? @borzou Permalink 1:24 PM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb These “journos” fabricate numbers, yet are employed by FT & LA times. https://medium.com/opacity/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.8nk0gt745  https://twitter.com/borzou/status/802981041891868672   Permalink 1:13 PM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Final version of our paper on “drop” in violence w/@DrCirillo (published by Nobel Foundation, forth 2017) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   Permalink 11:29 AM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Skin in the game,Trump, Theology and the experience machine: Nothing is real unless there is risk. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154363970418375   Permalink 9:11 AM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb More evidence IYIs collect my books without reading them. https://twitter.com/chloerlaw/status/802920034297331716   Permalink 9:08 AM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Unlike with other disciplines, protecting Philosophy from attack against Philosophy is unphilosophical.https://twitter.com/I_I_Rubin/status/802874079393050625   Permalink 6:14 AM – 27 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Greeks would be horrified at claim that some nerd at Harvard can teach you to be a man. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paideia   @bardiasoroudi @NoahRFeldman Permalink 3:29 PM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@bardiasoroudi @NoahRFeldman Violating law of logic: if some professors help doesn’t mean school is monopoly for humanities. Pitiful arg, Permalink 2:08 PM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Exactly:Harvard-Soviet illusion is identity school=knowledge;school=humanities (Lecturing birds how to fly chapter)https://twitter.com/sahilz79/status/802609383691714565   Permalink 12:54 PM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Found “less is more” (ag bigdata) in ancients #LindyEffect “Nimium allercando veritas amittilur” Publ Syr Excess details[words] hide truth Permalink 12:29 PM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Actually I showed in #Antifragile the biggest intellectual productions came from country priests (s.a.Bayes) @alexgiannotti @GhassanDahhan Permalink 11:50 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nerds do NOT understand #skininthegame. “Life is not about winning an argument [with a nerd like you] but about winning.” @NoahRFeldman Permalink 11:38 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb If you knew more latin & logic you’d realize that equating academia to authority IS ad hominem. @jtepper2 @NoahRFeldman @ChinchewPalsu Permalink 11:21 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Words that describe unerudite IYIs like you who think Harvard doesn’t provide ZERO intellectual credibility @NoahRFeldman @ChinchewPalsu Permalink 11:13 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Elnlightenment: Diderot Voltaire Rousseau Hume d’Allembert were NOT academics. Sorbonne was for idiots. @OriginalRamsFan @NoahRFeldman Permalink 11:09 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it takes half a century (Lindy) to know about influence. @NoahRFeldman @ChinchewPalsu Permalink 11:05 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Leibniz was trained as a legal scholar. He learned math in his mid 20s and (co) invented Calculus @GhassanDahhan Permalink 11:03 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Influential thinkers were scholars but NOT in academia: Darwin Marx Einstein (relativity) Freud Mandelbrot.. @ChinchewPalsu @NoahRFeldman Permalink 10:45 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You forgot the “subsequently”…”from commercial activity”. An idiot playing strawman with me?@BorisMarkovich Permalink 10:04 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@AssalehAmer “You are not getting the point that in risk we don’t give a fuck what people in “medical sciences” do, math prevails. kapish?” – @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/802492382608588800   Permalink 5:16 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb My talk Monday at U Penn School of Med http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/medicine.pdf   Lancet study on statins was ‘fundamentally flawed’http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/24/lancet-study-statins-fundamentally-flawed-critics-say/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw   Permalink 4:41 AM – 26 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Is McFarland a neocon or close to neocons or likely to mutate into a neocon? [Please corrigere my Latin] Permalink 3:03 PM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb IYI profs want you to believe one cannot read books without them; just like Taxi groups resist uber. Read classics. @ja_furman @NoahRFeldman Permalink 2:02 PM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb People who get good grades in “prestigious” nonSTEM majors are just signaling high ability to bullshit. @JamesMarsh79 Permalink 9:40 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nothing was funding since the fund went to 0. Counterparties synchronized the liquidations. @MarcoCraveiro @mattyglesias Permalink 8:31 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb LTCM was NOT a TAXPAYER bailout, but a Fed-coordinated liquidation w/counterparts & banks. Kapish? @MarcoCraveiro @mattyglesias Permalink 7:39 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Corollary: when a paper that engages in propaganda (W Post) accuses others of propaganda, is it propaganda?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/801960686876323841   Permalink 7:37 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb IYIs don’t get that: HedgeFund-ers have big #skininthegame, little hidden risk Less monoculture No taxpayer bailouthttps://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/802149869150466048   Permalink 6:09 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb #LindyEffect: 2y of INCERTO Fooled by Randomness (blue) is 16 y.o., TBS ~10. 99.9% of bestsellers don’t survive 2y. pic.twitter.com/eIZ2trE2mC Permalink 5:19 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Political “scientists” & Policy goons s a @dandrezner shd attend these courses so they know why we call them idiots.https://twitter.com/NECSI/status/801518855382302724   Permalink 4:17 AM – 25 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The meta question: is the news that Russia is spreading fake news fake news. Permalink 5:28 PM – 24 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I avoid reading nonmath recent books. But if I do, best heuristic: avoid books on the NYT list of “Notable Books”http://nyti.ms/2fSH7i2   Permalink 12:15 PM – 24 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Please note that @Charles_Lister is paid to fabricate numbers. Liar.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.rkwi12iz1   Permalink 8:27 AM – 24 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Ian, you should man up: stop whining, and cease to play arbiter of “adulthood”. Will feel better. @ianbremmer Permalink 7:31 AM – 24 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Happy Thanksgiving everyone! My 36th: I came to America to embrace the system & pledged to defend it. Will keep defending it. With Gratitude Permalink 7:15 AM – 24 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The plot thinckens. 2000 war casualties inflate over time to 30-40,000. Imbecile journos. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.gd9ozor7k   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JH6InUEliq”>  pic.twitter.com/JH6InUEliq Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Say something important, genuinely important. Hard for journos.https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/801476728732454912   Permalink 5:37 AM – 24 Nov 2016

@jbmacluckie Le mec (@nntaleb) m’a tellement influencé que j’ai deux références à lui encrées sur moi : pic.twitter.com/xDVXt5DGdM Permalink 11:09 PM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Is it me or is the Beaujolais Nouveau 2016 very very good? Permalink 3:11 PM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Trying to solve a difficult integral (one of those again). For those & only those into integration.http://math.stackexchange.com/q/2027844/88078?stw=2   Permalink 12:35 PM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Huffington Post, please explain *propaganda*. If you can. Thank you.@HuffPostGreece @HuffingtonPost pic.twitter.com/AwU0YWkhNX Permalink 11:32 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb No Huffington Post. pic.twitter.com/v6FSUimAkx Permalink 8:45 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Reason I don’t want Huffington Post to publish my work is the revelation that it “covertly” helped Hillary.Unethicalhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/801412424792477696   Permalink 7:55 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Well… it does!https://twitter.com/ArtVigRue/status/801447851033317376   Permalink 7:34 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Syriac version Malalas <= “eloquent” pic.twitter.com/I1WZJveNBJ Permalink 7:10 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine du Jour: The Great John Malalas had Aramaic name: Malal = orator. (New dictionary) pic.twitter.com/Y4PBrDlbkK Permalink 7:04 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The ugliest of humans looks better than the prettiest cockroach; the worst of businessmen looks more real than any professional politician. Permalink 6:54 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb They don’t know what “religion” means. Salafi isn’t a race. It isn’t a “religion”. It is a criminal organization.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e#.coa8tomua   Permalink 6:38 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Media idiots don’t realize that Alt-Right people are far, far more moderate than the “moderate” Salafi Islamists they are protecting! Shame. Permalink 5:37 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb World finally discovering that “experienced” &”professional” politicians are just as desirable as professional lovers, that is, prostitutes. Permalink 5:17 AM – 23 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Huff Post trying to make me look as if I wrote FOR them. I don’t write for them! Ο Διανοούμενος Πλην Όμως Ηλίθιος http://www.huffingtonpost.gr/nassim-nicholas-taleb/-_8521_b_13167866.html   Permalink 5:09 AM – 23 Nov 2016

Syria, Shias, Monsanto, Putin, Obama, Arab Bullshit, Thaler |Twitter

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@nntaleb 2/ Sharmine Narwani @snarwani has done some work on Syria. Hama casualties <5% of what was reported. More soonhttps://mideastshuffle.com/2013/02/22/the-dirty-numbers-game-in-syria/   Permalink 1:58 PM – 22 Nov 2016

@RiskMinds Watch @nntaleb live on 7th Dec for FREE! “Your grandmother’s intuitions abt #tailrisk is right”. Register here http://spr.ly/60118GLAV   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mGPrXkjgda”>  pic.twitter.com/mGPrXkjgda Permalink 12:00 PM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Trust none of what you hear, half of what you read, most of what you see.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.s5ge5ilqw   Permalink 6:58 AM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine Philology du Jour: Possi cenam stabis aut passus mille meabis => تغدا و تمدا ، تعشا و تمشا Permalink 4:57 AM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I just published “Syria and the Statistics of War”https://medium.com/p/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd   Permalink 4:15 AM – 22 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 4) Since Obama took office # of Christians in Syria/Mesopotamia down by 60-80%. Many still speak the lang of Christ, ethnically cleansed. Permalink 3:26 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb For those who still don’t know that Pinker’s theory on drop in violence is BS. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say   @BlueAnt2014 Permalink 3:10 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Cognitive biases are psycholobullshit, unless mentioned in ancient lit #lindyeffect @CAM_SMlTH @Alex_Walshy @seanmcarroll @ValaAfshar Permalink 2:45 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb It is called fooled by randomness. This is *exactly* mistaking probability for certainty. @Alex_Walshy @seanmcarroll @ValaAfshar Permalink 2:35 PM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Shias share with (Orthodox) Christians the notion of self sacrifice in pilgrimage. #skininthegame no cheap signalinghttps://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/800772465907666944   Permalink 11:38 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I can vouch: Monsanto tried to make life miserable but they hired PR imbeciles who didn’t know I was independent.https://twitter.com/food_democracy/status/800741851456098304   Permalink 8:46 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2021 @filipeteles Permalink 6:12 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You will never convince someone that he is wrong. Survival does. Prologue of #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/Ouu4BFV585 Permalink 5:59 AM – 21 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nassim ‘Black Swan’ Taleb Sums Up Obama’s Legacy In 3 Painfully “Real” Tweets | Zero Hedgehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-20/nassim-black-swan-taleb-sums-obamas-legacy-3-painfully-real-tweets   Permalink 3:41 PM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Saif leave that poor Thaler boy to his mourning. He won’t be able to control others for a while, may this lifetime. @saifedean @R_Thaler Permalink 10:46 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Well, I don’t trust Syria numbers, particularly after this story of the “hospitals” in E. Aleppo. pic.twitter.com/y7SG9wlNYy Permalink 8:54 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The same imbeciles who calculated scientifically that Trump had <2-10% chance chance of winning think GMOs are safe. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 8:16 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Spending additional 1 T on infrastructure may get us something other than novacaine to show for it. Obama spent it on salaries @MudsharkOX Permalink 4:01 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 3) Don’t fughet Obama is leaving us a Ponzi scheme, added ~8 trillions in debt with rates at 0. If they rise, costs of deficit explode… Permalink 3:32 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Idiotic (IYI) journos are trying to make us believe Putin is fighting Mother Theresa in Syria, not the AlQaeda of Sept 11. @BenteScheller Permalink 3:28 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The conflation of science and scientism.https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/800296599314370560   Permalink 3:16 AM – 20 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) (Cont) But in the end what Obama did that is unforgivable is increasing centralization in a complex system. Permalink 3:50 PM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Obama: Protected banksters (largest bonus pool in 2010) “Helped” Libya Served AlQaeda/SaudiBarbaria(Syria & Yemen)https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/800104636594192384   Permalink 3:33 PM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb For anyone who needs to know. @charles_lister is a paid Salafi apologist/propagandist at @MiddleEastInst and AlQaeda promoter.https://twitter.com/kenanrahmani/status/799338345948188672   Permalink 11:50 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Libertarianism and Julian the Apostate. pic.twitter.com/HV8yVWdzPl Permalink 10:54 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The only way to understand Aleppo is to call someone in North Syria. All the rest is suspicious Salafi propaganda.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/799883376937340929   Permalink 8:31 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb No, it is not “racist” to resist intolerant minorities, no, no, no!https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.7fh4kzqs1   Permalink 7:27 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@ashuduttmarkets Fucking idiot, why don’t you unfollow and find someone else who wants your instruction on what to write about? Permalink 6:55 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Tragedy of Syrian Christians: promoted Arabism to secularize away from Islam, instead of Greco-Roman-Aramaic past. pic.twitter.com/holXWYCbzj Permalink 6:47 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb How Fat Tony got rich betting against charlatans like @JustinWolfers (Green Lumber Fallacy chapter in #Antifragile) pic.twitter.com/gNAOVsDREI Permalink 5:46 AM – 19 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Funny pple don’t realize @loveconcursall “Lara Stuart-Müller” frm Zurich is in fact a fat male bearded ISIS operative @ThePorcie @wootwoo3 Permalink 6:08 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@loveconcursall Please explain the “lie” in a historical fact. They don’t have someone smarter to represent the Syrian opposition? Permalink 3:40 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Pple in the BS-vending business BS even more when it becomes too obvious they’re in the BS business #noskininthegamehttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/799712650674388993   Permalink 3:18 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The Russians rang the bells of the Mar Georgios Greek Orthodox Cathedral. People remember. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_George_Greek_Orthodox_Cathedral  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/799744116586348545   Permalink 2:50 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb First time church bells were heard in Beirut under Ottomans was in 1773 when the Russian fleet came. To understand Putin in Syria & support. Permalink 2:40 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Medawar (round in Levantine) seems to come from Aramaic (Arabic: mustadir). @zaliin Permalink 2:14 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I can’t wear a cross in Saudi Arabia. Apostates are executed. I am not going to cry for you yet. @Quran_Chart @asadabukhalil Permalink 1:42 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb “Bigotry” against Arab states when they treat non-Sunnis like deviants? This is called “Arab Bullshit” @tomazy_m @leithfadel @asadabukhalil Permalink 1:20 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb .@sterndavidi 2000 out of 1.3 million Moroccan Jews! Permalink 1:19 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb US State dept estimate of Jews in Iran is ~ 20-25K @EliCash22 @asadabukhalil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Jews   Permalink 1:09 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb This is true. Note Iran still has 25,000 Jews. Arab countries have practically none left.https://twitter.com/asadabukhalil/status/799714208690491392   Permalink 1:05 PM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Presenting Medical summary paper on Antifragility Nov 28 at the U of Pennsylvania School of Medicine. Paper: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/medicine.pdf   Permalink 11:31 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Cannot hide my Schadenfreude watching @R_Thaler panic attacks -& nudgers who banked on Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison to manipulate citizens.https://twitter.com/r_thaler/status/799405867691077632   Permalink 9:19 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb UK universities ban newspapers on campus,yet allow Salafi propaganda. Anyone ag. Salafis becomes “Islamophobe”. Boycott UK universities? Permalink 5:04 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb x=y != z in the right side corridor @CutTheKnotMath @mikeandallie pic.twitter.com/pZBOhqZrcG Permalink 2:45 AM – 18 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After last nomination I feel that my dream of seeing Saudi/Qatari royals in Guantanamo getting close…All my betes noires are falling now! Permalink 6:25 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du jour: Kfar (kafr) and Dar (dor) relate to “round”. Dar also village/house. Dar & Medawar => same root. pic.twitter.com/IqidB3sUV7 Permalink 5:56 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@mikeandallie @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb was able to print the shape and will use it for a project with my kids tonight. Thanks for sharing your work. pic.twitter.com/uNip1bykoQ Permalink 5:05 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb A clear explanation of my problem with 538 probabilities.https://hedgefundsmarts.wordpress.com/2016/11/17/smoke-gets-in-your-eyes-clinton-landslide-and-other-pipe-dreams/   Permalink 2:54 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb John Bolton needs to be put in a psychiatric asylum. The very problem of Iran w/West is a regime change (Mosadegh).https://twitter.com/jessicaschulb/status/799380410362904576   Permalink 2:51 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb One leg of the octopus @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/tcT67IMYIq Permalink 12:42 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After the fact some people think they got it.https://twitter.com/ejnbo/status/799346863065341952   Permalink 12:28 PM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb A better perspective on a Mandelbrotian Octopus @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/ytIYwVxGL9 Permalink 10:38 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The first idiot to fire from the State Department. But from my experience replacing all the staff is necessary.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/799193394761400320   Permalink 10:06 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You get a beautiful Mandelbrotian mathematical object at the “nugget”, worth exploring. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/mNceojHgDK Permalink 9:14 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The IYI Class slowing realizing that everything they know turned out to be fiction, as in Candid Camera. pic.twitter.com/TaoffZ7qsi Permalink 4:44 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@byzantinepower The more you learn about Byzantium the more you learn how acutely the Syriac genius inflected its character. The West lost that spark. Permalink 4:24 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 8 days after about everything the IYI class (forecasters, journos, pol “scientists”, Pinker) knows fell apart; starting to realize what… Permalink 4:23 AM – 17 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Donaldo considering Nikki Haley, an Indian Sikh woman is a stroke of genius! @realDonaldTrump Permalink 3:21 PM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The saying “silence is gold” applies only to fools. Permalink 1:29 PM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Gibbon on Syrian (Greeks) fashion-obsessions & “contempt for female modesty”. Fashion week in Laodicea(Latakia) now! pic.twitter.com/cwWiF7BMmG Permalink 12:58 PM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Sweet vindication: publisher said sales of electronics books down 17-30% pending on genre vs real books. #lindyeffect at work Permalink 11:37 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@RandPaul “I can’t support anybody to be our secretary of state who didn’t learn the lesson of the Iraq War,”http://reason.com/blog/2016/11/15/interview-with-rand-paul-i-cant-support   Permalink 6:08 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb How to get rid of intruders who bug you for selfies. pic.twitter.com/MbHVml3fwl Permalink 5:46 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) Turned out that @yaneerbaryam has used a version of Simpson’s Paradox to debunk math of the Selfish Gene by entertainer @RichardDawkins Permalink 4:33 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The same people who complain that we only had 2 “bad” choices in election also complained abt my ethics of voting for 3rd party. #IYI Permalink 4:04 AM – 16 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After Pinker gets elementary statistical significance (if),we’ll teach him Simpson’s Paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox  https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/798351010544566272   Permalink 2:33 PM – 15 Nov 2016

@RomKoziol @nntaleb You reach a point when you have had enough of the BS, the hype, the gurus, the new age stuff, etc. and you say it like it is. Permalink 2:25 PM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Doesn’t look good. @TimHarford @obradovits1 Permalink 11:27 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Paula, @schmittpaula Nice surprise to get this in my feed. I will order them immediately! Permalink 7:56 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Did you read Antifragile, Yes/No? @TimHarford @obradovits1 Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Also a lot of people in NY who voted Johnson would have voted Trump. @neilchriss Permalink 5:57 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After that, sign the petition to allow S. Pinker’s to wave statistical significance in work on drop in violence.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/798351010544566272   Permalink 5:50 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Ask @TimHarford. In my copy, he did not acknowledge anything. @malikbarak Permalink 5:34 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Well… as it turned out I’ve taken a look at the former. @limawort @PoliticsProse @TimHarford @FearNoTrieb Permalink 5:22 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Hence the “populist” dislike of IYI is ingrained is about all languages. @MarcosCarreira @stan_yurin Permalink 5:21 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Any idea of diff betw “The Power of Disorder to Transform our Lives”& “Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder”?https://twitter.com/PoliticsProse/status/798189353415491585   Permalink 5:18 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Friends, looking for info on how many read an Op-Ed in NYT if total circulation is, say 1mil. 90k? What’s typical hits of OpE on Bloomberg? Permalink 4:32 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb To whoever translated this: “fatphobia” is fear of dietary fat, not “gordofobia” (overweight)! #traduttoretradittorehttps://twitter.com/griverom/status/798479605271318528   Permalink 3:13 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 3) This, given the presumption Aristotle was translated into Arabic not from the Greek, but from the Aramaic-Syriac. [Evidence for Galen] Permalink 2:59 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) Is Levantine is the only language in which the term “philosopher” is derogatory? To bullshit (produce non solid verbiage) = “tfalsaf” Permalink 2:56 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du Jour: Discovered that “Intellectual Yet Idiot” translates into Levantine as… “philosopher” (faylasouf!)https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.dpt9b52xo   Permalink 2:54 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The Intellctual Yet Idiot (IYI) article is spreading into the languages IYIs speak.http://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/aktuell/nassim-nicholas-taleb-die-wohlwissenden-ld.128349   Permalink 2:44 AM – 15 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I am not often angry (saliency), but why WTF do readers expect authors to write motivational messages on twitter?https://twitter.com/WriteWthCourage/status/798260310285185024   Permalink 2:51 PM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The best so far! @robert_wehttps://twitter.com/robert_we/status/798258175946457093   Permalink 12:31 PM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 4- The Lesson of 2016 is that it took social media (not a “free” press) to take universal suffrage to its natural conclusion. Permalink 9:31 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Let’s model a random Congress composed of citizens. It shd best represent the population by LLN. See Pluchino etal. @normonics @yaneerbaryam Permalink 8:17 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb In Complex Systems Terms: Populism: bottom-up spontaneous-order participation NonPopulism “democracy”: hierarchical & constrained choices Permalink 7:58 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Finally converging to becoming the author of a single book: the INCERTO is out tomorrow.https://www.amazon.com/dp/0399590455/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_x_qiCkybRNATJZ8   Permalink 6:13 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb When you risk other people’s lives for “ideas” w/o paying the price & w/o being apologetic, #skininthegame. Kapish? @geor97 @BillKristol Permalink 6:02 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I hope this scum @BillKristol is forced to settle in Iraq, & risks beheading by ISIS. Scum, scum, scum.https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/798153276092981248   Permalink 5:46 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Populism: democratic participation by the uneducated population when conflicts w/that of the miseducated one. Works?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/797964184956891136   Permalink 2:29 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Thank you @kilkenomics !!!https://twitter.com/mdvex/status/798076026622451712   Permalink 12:39 AM – 14 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot I said “rigorous” not political science. @dandrezner Permalink 5:04 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I am still looking for someone to give a rigorous explanation/explanation of difference between populism & democracy. Nothing yet. Permalink 4:47 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Graphical view of the problem: >1 except in a tiny nugget around {0,0,0} @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/ULkgMsX61Z Permalink 3:48 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Graphical view of the problem: >1 except in a tiny nugget around {0,0,0} @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/ULkgMsX61Z Permalink 3:48 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb No idiot the NYT gave legitimacy to the Iraq incasion @John_F_Donnelly @kilkenomics Permalink 1:41 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Let us not forget that the NYT was largely responsible for the Iraq mess. Includes pundits like Thomas Friedmam @kilkenomics Permalink 1:16 PM – 13 Nov 2016

@kilkenomics “A vote for #Brexit is a vote for complex systems” – @nntaleb #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com/BoPIfGLR8r Permalink 6:03 AM – 13 Nov 2016

@kilkenomics “A vote for #Brexit is a vote for complex systems” – @nntaleb #kilkenomics pic.twitter.com/BoPIfGLR8r Permalink 6:03 AM – 13 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Rituals are the music of life. Permalink 1:43 PM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I told Politico to get lost for that “Black Swan” article. @SamWahlenpic.twitter.com/yUUniDRn0y Permalink 10:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I told Politico to get lost for that “Black Swan” article. @SamWahlen pic.twitter.com/yUUniDRn0y Permalink 10:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The IYI didn’t get that censoring pple w/unfair tags “racist”,”sexist”,”schlongist” doesn’t work unless they also censor in the voting booth Permalink 8:42 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Reaction of @FiveThirtyEight same as cowardly traders who unexpectedly blow up, blame mkts, God, Mars… Accept bad probabilistic reasoning! Permalink 8:27 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Errors of @FiveThirtyEight et al. in “UPDATING” probabilities that shd be around .5/ noise https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/binary%20forecasting%20538.nb.pdf   pic.twitter.com/jcZccHsr63 Permalink 8:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Indeed Salibi is largely unreliable; Syria’s Islamization was very slow from minority rule. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.wrrhkreke  https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/797444295053680640   Permalink 6:57 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Deirdre Mc and Rory S discussing skin in the game. How Hillary shd be ambassador to Lybia.https://twitter.com/cravenpartners/status/797414016352194560   Permalink 5:15 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@CarolineKirrane .@rorysutherland delighted with his birthday cake! He got a rousing rendition of happy birthday from the crowd here at #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com/hNFiWMlWUo Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@CarolineKirrane .@rorysutherland delighted with his birthday cake! He got a rousing rendition of happy birthday from the crowd here at #kilkenomics pic.twitter.com/hNFiWMlWUo Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@ThomBarry Nassim. Interesting that rulers in the past usually went into battle. A Roman emperor was captured and turned into a stool! #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com/4363uss8k1 Permalink 4:42 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@kilkenomics Deirdre @PrudentiaMag shares that she was born ‘Donald’ which, apparently in Irish means ‘world leader’. (Don’t tell Trump!)pic.twitter.com/zFzOrq217X Permalink 4:27 AM – 12 Nov 2016

@nntaleb My point was that it was 50% @EconomicTimes Permalink 4:49 PM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Highly exaggerated Who called it right for Donald Trump? A professor, a filmmaker & Nassim Nicholas Talebhttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/who-called-it-right-for-donald-trump-a-professor-a-filmmaker-and-nassim-nicholas-taleb/articleshow/55379214.cms   Permalink 2:36 PM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The ricochet from demonizing Trump by Hillarists & idiotic media: all he has to do now is be half the monster they portrayed. #Antifragile Permalink 2:34 PM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The verdict is that @Charles_Lister from @MiddleEastInst should be tagged as a paid promoter of Jihadi terrorism. On his employer… later Permalink 6:09 AM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Excellent term, “sciolus”, ancien equivalent to “scientism”. Also philosophaster, bullshit artist, or just “Pinker”.https://twitter.com/atomasevic/status/797028412695203840   Permalink 3:04 AM – 11 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Why did Obama turn on AlQaeda now? Because Hillary is out of the way? Very strange.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/796850098839941120   Permalink 5:24 PM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb It is hard to find a plumber, baker, janitor, dentist, surgeon who is an impostor. Nate Silver, St. Pinker, Sam Harris are total impostors.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/796780160162942976   Permalink 12:38 PM – 10 Nov 2016

@GhassanDahhan The guy on the left was just added on the US list of designated terrorists. The guy on the right was just awarded the Press Freedom Award.pic.twitter.com/h3bUU2HgMU Permalink 11:28 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I can’t stand impostors. Permalink 10:22 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb “Intellectual” America: @sapinker who doesn’t know mean!= sample mean now arbiter of… probabilitistic reasoning!pic.twitter.com/Uc59XoXqs0 Permalink 9:25 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@Sartor1836 A Nobel Laureate* in Economics, ladies and gentlemen. cc: @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/hackcelerity/status/796501638601121792   Permalink 9:18 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb After his reaction to my earlier criticism it is my opinion @NateSilver538 should leave the business.https://twitter.com/aigo3000/status/796738157802819584   Permalink 7:45 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb What is alarming isn’t that they were wrong but that these idiots underestimated their error rate. Similar to p-val https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2834266  https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/796700880246571012   Permalink 5:23 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Vienna @nutanixpic.twitter.com/pCngG5w5p8 Permalink 5:03 AM – 10 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Anyone taking conditional market forecasts frm someone (@justinwolfers) paid by charitable contributions has a pbm!https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/796394861633110016   Permalink 11:52 PM – 9 Nov 2016

Propagandists, Justin Wolfers, FiveThirtyEight, Michiko Kakutani, Nocera, Aleppo, Krugman | Twitter

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@nntaleb The work by scientific entertainer Steven Pinker on violence.https://twitter.com/peterfranklin_/status/796448677380452357   Permalink 12:33 PM – 9 Nov 2016

@mdvex @orestistsinalis @nntaleb in my officepic.twitter.com/pPwsRMcoxH Permalink 9:23 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb There is no “animosity” with Harris. I just consider him an intellectual fraud. @GuzziNba @SamHarrisOrg Permalink 9:21 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I know I saw his papers on forecasting and noticed mathematical probability was not … for him. @HenryMyers7 @JustinWolfers Permalink 8:57 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@themightypuck Something @nntaleb pointed out a year ago.https://twitter.com/conor64/status/796265774440542208   Permalink 8:54 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb That’s @JustinWolfers who should stop teaching economics, just drive an uber outside populated areas.https://twitter.com/carney/status/796390341997920256   Permalink 8:47 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@GuruAnaerobic “Fuck You” vs bought Hilary.pic.twitter.com/fkxXOhWKA5 Permalink 8:06 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The Middle East Institute @MiddleEastInst is funded by the Wahabis. Lister should mention it in every utterance @nadeemhaque @Charles_Lister Permalink 7:48 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Note that people like @Charles_Lister are paid by foreign governments/terrorist sponsors to spread their agendas. Permalink 7:39 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Should we classify propagandists like @Charles_Lister who advocate the interests of al Qaeda/Wahabis as terrorists? Permalink 7:36 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@yaobviously @nntaleb for a long while I thought you overstated your case against intellectuals. I was wrong. Permalink 6:52 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The reason I expected a Trump election would not affect the market is from noticing that ignorant IYI @JustinWolfers made Tump=lower SP. Permalink 6:49 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb How do you forecast an election (cluelessness of @FiveThirtyEight ) PRELIM DRAFT https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/binary%20forecasting%20538.nb.pdf  pic.twitter.com/MdKI0ecrfZ Permalink 6:21 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@EHSANI22 Clearly Americans value a job more than buying a cheap pack of 6 T.shirts made in Bangladesh for $6.99. Kudos to @nntaleb Permalink 4:35 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I forgot the big losers: the neocons. We have at least 4-8 years of watching them drive uber cars / taxis in DC. Permalink 10:09 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Who got burried? Saudi Barbaria Goldman Sacks Syrian Jihadis aka “rebels” Academic Economists w/PseudoNobel NYT & other bullshit venues. Permalink 9:59 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@MaxAbrahms What’s the best explanation for why pollsters seem to have failed so badly? To his credit, @nntaleb predicted this orange swan event. Permalink 9:42 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@SadStatueOfLib Just want to point out that @nntaleb has been calling @NateSilver538’s flaws (bullshit) in his models since… hmm, June? Earlier? Permalink 8:36 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Time to laugh at “Intellectuals”.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.x3pmha81c   Permalink 9:25 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb You’ve arrived, Nassim; you’ve arrived.pic.twitter.com/FX8cUQ997E Permalink 3:05 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@ghchammas 4 cousins in amioun lebanon @nntalebpic.twitter.com/ljAxOjYYkk Permalink 10:48 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb An example of forecaster A better than B regardless of finalpic.twitter.com/2zeH1hJ5he Permalink 8:52 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Correction: Solent it turned out is not yet out of business. Not yet. @EmanuelDerman @zzbar @motherboard Permalink 7:23 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb New edition of Procrustes. No more than 4 aphorisms per day. https://www.amazon.com/Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical-Aphorisms/dp/0812982401/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=  pic.twitter.com/FErRAAxzFa Permalink 6:37 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb We got a great vindication w/ Soylent going out of business. Keep neomania out of food.@EmanuelDerman @zzbar @motherboard Permalink 6:20 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Some probability musings from North Lebanon: how to compare forecasters BEFORE final outcome.pic.twitter.com/57ShuNvVVH Permalink 6:02 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Any human being who reads anything from @michikokakutani is at war with reason.https://twitter.com/michikokakutani/status/795752769420492800   Permalink 4:09 PM – 7 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Trump is just a symptom not a disease. Message: establishment is so bad that a random Bronx Zoo animal less harmful.pic.twitter.com/xcZLVKFuPs Permalink 3:35 PM – 7 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine for “this”: hayda, haydi,pl. hol. comes frm Syro-Aramaic: hod, hodo. Now hano/hathe in Turoyo @SahinChrispic.twitter.com/WALhu4nJki Permalink 3:08 PM – 7 Nov 2016

@nntaleb John Gray is the real thing.https://twitter.com/orestistsinalis/status/795655586998325248   Permalink 8:23 AM – 7 Nov 2016

@joshua_landis Syrian rebels think it is OK to use civilians as Human Shields but not when Asad or ISIS do it. All powers are guilty when holding civilianshttps://twitter.com/RevolutionSyria/status/792891242581487616   Permalink 2:47 PM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb “Strength Training is Learning from Tail Events” by @nntalebhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d?source=twitterShare-f138bf5466fe-1478475236   Permalink 3:34 PM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nocera, you’re a BS vendor. But everything you do to cover-up your BS vending entails more BS-vending. Keep quiet & non nocere, @NoceraNYT Permalink 11:56 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@RiskMinds “Your grandmother’s intuitions about #tailrisk is usually right”. Don’t miss @nntaleb @ #RiskMinds. More here http://spr.ly/60168EODK  pic.twitter.com/BAX0fIHKdv Permalink 8:00 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Version 2 (cleared typos) @CoachRippetoepic.twitter.com/4i9cF0Yj1r Permalink 7:21 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Tail risk management & weightlifting? Draft of the forward for a book published by @CoachRippetoe,for comments.pic.twitter.com/XXCtXSCwRO Permalink 6:58 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Syriac is Eastern Aramaic (Western Aramaic ~ Jerusalem/Damascus/Maaloula, Western Syriac ~ Nineveh, Eastern Syriac ~ Babylon) @rennyabraham Permalink 6:06 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du Jour: “kursh”, slang for “belly” in Levantine, is from Accadian: Gilgamesh, Tablet 10, 222.pic.twitter.com/UOOy0K26De Permalink 5:12 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Yes, “Boy” as a sign of disrespect. You have a problem with displaying my intellectual (& personal) disrespect for you? @NoceraNYT Permalink 2:46 PM – 5 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nocera boy, @NoceraNYT, let me debate you on “Aleppo” to show you what “Ignorance” is. You can even use Aramaic, W. Syriac or Syrian Arabic. Permalink 8:35 AM – 5 Nov 2016

@DrJillStein Saudi Arabia: -top Clinton Foundation donor -lobbies US via Podesta group -got record arms deals from Obama/Clinton -top terrorism sponsor Permalink 12:26 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb A neat way to transform a Wiener process (\-infty,infty) to election probabilities [0,1].pic.twitter.com/zKzhN6DtZv Permalink 7:57 AM – 5 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nocera, next time you attend my lecture, remind me to teach you “straw man argument” & intel. dishonesty. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man   @NoceraNYT Permalink 7:15 AM – 5 Nov 2016

@lourou1981 @nntaleb the linguistic map of Syria looks strikingly similar to the sphere of control of diff factions in Syria today. Sheer coincidence? Permalink 5:36 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb (actually during the crisis) Permalink 3:20 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb With Mandelbrot right before the crisis. Alas, weightlifting makes one gain weight.https://twitter.com/HarriusHaller/status/794662544334057472   Permalink 3:19 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb In other words every person should vote according to way he or she expects or prefers others to vote. Be uncompromising with virtue ! Permalink 12:48 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb What makes a good election forecaster? Not the Brier metric 538 is a terrible forecaster regardless of final outcomepic.twitter.com/IF39qauxtP Permalink 11:34 AM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) If Nocera were better read he would have suspected there is such a thing as deontic ethics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deontological_ethics   @NoceraNYT Permalink 6:06 AM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Better NOT know where Aleppo is than BS about it with half knowledge a la Joe Nocera. IYI Joe Nocera. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   @NoceraNYT Permalink 5:26 AM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Dectecting another slip: I said “preferences”. I most probably meant “principles”. Permalink 1:28 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Why my ethics dictate that I vote for the 3rd party regardless of oddshttp://cnb.cx/2eZeyPC   Permalink 1:18 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Even if #GMOs will “feed the world”, you need to look at risks of ruin. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  https://twitter.com/NonGMOProject/status/794262188349210624   Permalink 12:55 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Spent too much time cleaning the data on Mongolian invasions. Permalink 12:32 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Typo on CNBC: Said 1308 then corrected 1208 and said Attila for Genghis. Permalink 12:12 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Civis romanus sum @BlackWhiteKnite Permalink 8:10 PM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Unlike in static forecasting, the best dynamic forecaster (time) is he who every period forecasts HIS OWN next forecast best. (to continue) Permalink 7:48 PM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You mean one of these deranged fellows ? @EconMBA @egfalken @IllimitableMan http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   Permalink 2:36 PM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Mr Krugman, for economists, to “invoke authority”, well … not a good idea, to put it mildly.https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/793813730454888449   Permalink 7:03 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Scam alert: @Fidelity offers a credit card via outside Co, designed to charge late fees+ interest to unsuspecting, similar to Wells Fargo. Permalink 6:13 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine du Jour: Ammianus Marcellinus was another Syro-Phoenician Greek. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammianus_Marcellinus#cite_note-Britannica-1   Permalink 5:25 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) Today someone w/economics degree has a higher chance of sleeping with Kim Kardashian than getting a job as a trader. Finance = STEM Permalink 5:08 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Economics is a fake discipline; attempts to improve it (s.a.”behavioral”,”evo”) made it worse! Finance moved to mathematics, accounting,etc. Permalink 5:04 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Psychologists are way behind probability/complexity theory in their “normative” definition of rationality.https://twitter.com/SanguineEmpiric/status/793646879485538304   Permalink 4:44 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Quite insulting to probability when someone “estimates” noise with precision: 24.8%, not 25 or 24. #cluelesshttps://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/793298019693146113   Permalink 1:29 PM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) If you understand nothing about the problem (like DC pundits) then it becomes Iran vs Saudi Arabia, US vs Russia, Mars vs Saturn. Permalink 7:25 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Ignorant pundit (IYIs) see everything w/the magnified prism of geopolitics, not local people trying to make things work. #Lebanon elections Permalink 7:15 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb … with HUGE (yuge) practical consequences on model error. @CutTheKnotMath @neilchrisspic.twitter.com/3ezlq1QaSJ Permalink 6:02 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb V. counterintuitive useful mathematical result:How higher dimensional areas get SMALLER. @CutTheKnotMath @neilchrisspic.twitter.com/uqGuHzptXx Permalink 5:57 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb (what they say about Oxford) Permalink 5:50 PM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb What they call engineering is really physics; what they call physics is math, what they call math nobody knows what it is. @PeterVeep Permalink 5:41 PM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The conflict: Engineers, applied-probabilists, physicists think in terms of applications; mathematicians view math as art. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 12:18 PM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb That poor @NateSilver538 still doesn’t get that the possibility of unexpected ↑ variance & moves probabilities→ 50%https://twitter.com/Thesokorus/status/793125893715685377   Permalink 9:34 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb A relevant lesson from Podesta/Huma: bureaucrats & empty suits spend their time in multiplicative/metastatic low information emailing. Permalink 8:24 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Typo. Range for thega [0, \pi] not [0, 2 \pi ]. Varphi in [ 0, 2 pi] Permalink 8:00 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb ἀπὸ μηχανῆς θεός Permalink 7:50 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Fooled by Correlations (cont), a geometric tutorial. Hard to visualize in dimensions >3.pic.twitter.com/6cmW6Krx2r Permalink 7:22 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb La trahison des clercs! The disgusting pseudoleft support for: Saudi Barbaria/Islamofascism Shillary Megacorps https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/trahison_des_clercs   Permalink 6:13 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb You never hear the pseudo-left & neocons say “butcher of Yemen”. Nor alQaeda in Aleppo ever called “butchers”.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/793063579599577088   Permalink 6:08 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb (From a few months ago) Permalink 9:12 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb My election modelhttps://twitter.com/zzbar/status/792926636098330624   Permalink 8:47 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The amount of short tails in the system in order to generate returns for retirees is mindbogggggling.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/792890807699247104   Permalink 6:09 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@MaxAbrahms Gary Kasparov is on CNN talking about how Russia wants Trump to win. Who will CNN have talk about how Saudi Arabia wants Hillary to win? Permalink 4:55 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Virtue is what you do when nobody is looking. The rest is marketing. #TheBedofProcrustes (but I can’t remember for sure) Permalink 1:51 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb GMOs advocacy reveals charlatanism, proposing solutions w/unseen side effects; scientism for profit. @philipbstarkpic.twitter.com/vL8Qcw8U7m Permalink 1:24 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Being nice counts the most when you are nice to people ignored by others. Permalink 1:21 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@ggreenwald The savage Saudi/US/UK war on Yemen lacks all the typical propaganda options- we’re bombing for freedom, Bad Dictator, etc- so it’s ignored. Permalink 6:34 AM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Journos & soc. “scientists” fail to detect the difference betw science and scientism.https://twitter.com/dmandl/status/792721099662307328   Permalink 6:35 AM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Ironically the computer allows us to do more abstract math as it does the nitty gritty sh*t work & frees us to see deeper @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 5:59 AM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb We should put ellipticality in our book as higher D fat tails while lower D thin tailed @DrCirillo @financequantpic.twitter.com/JnF0CpvbmS Permalink 5:23 AM – 30 Oct 2016