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CNN, Fatty Lamb, Easter, Minsk, UAL, Palm Sunday, Donaldo, Facta Non Verba, Peter Hitchens | Twitter

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@nntaleb I speculate that no gym machine can raise one’s BPM (beats per minute) more than sprinting outside, particularly uphill. True? Permalink 6:31 AM – 18 Apr 2017

@NonMeek .@nntaleb My humble attempt of conveying the concepts “iatrogenics” and “negative convexity effect” from #Antifragile in one strip. pic.twitter.com/hBXeESTlvI Permalink 10:40 AM – 17 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Today, The Black Swan turns 10 years old. (Fooled by Randomness is ~16 y.o., Procrustes ~7, and Antifragile ~5) Permalink 9:11 AM – 17 Apr 2017

@MaxAbrahms Trump only cares about Sunni, not Shiite children (I’d expand that claim beyond Trump to most media & think tanks).http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-suicide-attack-refugee-buses-trump-only-cares-sunni-children-a7687066.html   Permalink 5:44 AM – 17 Apr 2017

@nntaleb We need to help CNN go out of business. I involuntarily get their propaganda in lounges as they blast the #fakenewshttps://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 5:36 PM – 16 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Was this week in 4 airline lounges” Warsaw, Vienna, Minsk, NY. ALL were blasting CNN How do we get airport lounges to stop having #fakenews?https://twitter.com/dancohen3000/status/853352680336523265   Permalink 5:27 PM – 16 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Rule I’ve learned today. After 47 vegan days (with v. few exceptions), do not overeat fatty lamb. Permalink 5:15 PM – 16 Apr 2017

@JulianAssange After the massacre of shiite refugee families in Syria yesterday let’s recall the Western media’s original CIA backed “moderate rebel” pic.twitter.com/K8ZiF1Fjmn Permalink 3:53 PM – 16 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Lamb after 47 days pic.twitter.com/JW7FzETLqA Permalink 12:14 PM – 16 Apr 2017

@nntaleb #LindyEffecthttps://twitter.com/litteracarolina/status/852950922196131841   Permalink 8:28 AM – 16 Apr 2017

@MaxAbrahms Do a thought experiment: Imagine how much more & intense media coverage would be if Assad had massacred all those civilians yesterday. Permalink 6:13 AM – 16 Apr 2017

@MaxAbrahms That’s totally nuts if you’ve at all been following the media coverage disparity. Shia lives simply don’t matter.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/853450526834511872   Permalink 8:33 PM – 15 Apr 2017

@since33 Christ is Risen! Khristós Anésti! Hristos voskrese! لمسيح قام! حقا قام! ܫܪܝܪܐܝܬ ܩܡ! Photo: Holy Sepulchre #Easter pic.twitter.com/AbZ8NaYXM7 Permalink 12:12 PM – 15 Apr 2017

@nntaleb “Intellectual elite”= people selected ability to get: 1 statics, not dynamics 2 actions, not interactions 3 low, not high dimensionality. Permalink 11:34 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The main result of “improvement” by US regime changists (Obama/Hillary) & backing rebels is depletion of original Christians in Syria.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/853285539981787137   Permalink 10:31 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@nntaleb IYIs are good at “removing” w/o grasping 2nd step/complex systems Removing “dictators” & replacing w… Removing “religion” & replacing w…https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/853292130252582912   Permalink 10:29 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@BrankoMilan This is a good news!https://twitter.com/DeanBaker13/status/853295617787006976   Permalink 10:20 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@thogge Very good. as you elude to, nothing angered Jesus more than virtue-signaling empty-sepulcher Pharisees. saved his toughest rebukes for them Permalink 8:58 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@nntaleb You cannot truly celebrate Easter if you didn’t pay a price for it: lent & fasting.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/no-worship-without-skin-in-the-game-70b4aa341092   Permalink 5:02 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Borin Johnson has all the shortcomings attributed to Trump by his detractors & none of the qualities assumed by his followers. Permalink 3:59 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@sahouraxo Hundreds of Syrian Christians attended their very first #GoodFriday mass in #Aleppo’s St. Elijah Cathedral in nearly five years. #Syria pic.twitter.com/wVkYT1WysE Permalink 5:18 PM – 14 Apr 2017

@NonMeek .@nntaleb #Antifragile’s chapter 21 provides the framework for today’s @Offshorecomic (books V & VI are just marvelous) #IYI #Academics pic.twitter.com/hyqN5QYla8 Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The Donald coverging on Isocrates Golden Rule for Foreign Affairs: Treat other nations the way you want yours to be treated #SkinIntheGamehttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/852510810287075329   Permalink 6:57 AM – 14 Apr 2017

@KenMcCarthy The idiot news media is STILL confusing denying boarding w VIOLENTLY removing a BOARDED passenger. The latter is literally a criminal act Permalink 6:51 AM – 14 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Question: one has two thin green horizontal stripes, the other a thick longitudinal smear. Permalink 2:19 PM – 13 Apr 2017

@Alexa__Bella The lack of journalistic integrity here is astounding @EliLake~2nd story in 2wks you’ve stolen frm @Cernovich & claimed it as your own~C’mon Permalink 2:07 PM – 13 Apr 2017

@schmittpaula “Washington Post Doesn’t Disclose Writer Supporting Syria Strike Is a Lobbyist for Tomahawk Missile Manufacturer”http://www.alternet.org/grayzone-project/wash-post-writer-supporting-syria-strike-lobbyist#.WO69XR4sew8.twitter   Permalink 8:55 AM – 13 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Minsk pic.twitter.com/fPKrpowi97 Permalink 5:50 AM – 13 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Max has a thread on how “Aleppo” side casualties were much less than Mosul; Salafi PR/think tanks promoted “butcher of Aleppo”.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/852469578080956416   Permalink 4:24 AM – 13 Apr 2017

@nntaleb If someone pays you for anything other than a specific transaction, you are a slave.https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-legally-own-another-person-4145a1802bf6   Permalink 3:54 AM – 13 Apr 2017

@wikileaks “[al-Quada] is on our side in Syria”–email from policy advisor to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (Feb 2012) https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/emailid/23225#efmAGIAHu   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/k6hIk68nvC”>  pic.twitter.com/k6hIk68nvC Permalink 2:04 PM – 12 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Paula have you seen many children without… mothers? And that was Nusra. Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Apr 2017

@nntaleb She is good. Very good. That’s how statisticians and detectives think.https://twitter.com/partisangirl/status/852219568818802688   Permalink 11:26 AM – 12 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The world is a better place today than it was over the weekend. Now I can go back to working on my Fat Tails papers.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/852183092420857856   Permalink 8:39 AM – 12 Apr 2017

@EHSANI22 Leading CW expert Theodor Postol of MIT just published a 14-page document questioning WH claims that Sarin was dropped from #Syrian AF plane pic.twitter.com/kMJgxwsN8Z Permalink 8:36 AM – 12 Apr 2017

@0ma6e lots of charlatans revealing themselves with this spicer story @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/UTuKZGujX3 Permalink 7:10 AM – 12 Apr 2017

@13125x lots of charlatans revealing themselves with this spicer story @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/UTuKZGujX3 Permalink 7:10 AM – 12 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The NYT is for and by IYIs like Haberman, insecure philistines & fake intellectuals. The Post is to the point & vastly less pretentious.https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/852028786358984705   Permalink 10:38 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Great news; looks like we have the answerhttp://nypost.com/2017/04/11/trump-were-not-going-into-syria/   Permalink 9:58 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The worst part of the story is the ongoing smear campaign against the UAL victim, to attenuate their mistreatment. Permalink 8:30 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Think tankers & journos are usually low IQ, intell. insecure & living in financial insecurity. They only attack those who cannot harm them. Permalink 6:08 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb My idea of writing essays is to make sure the reader has ABSOLUTELY no idea what will be discussed on the next page. Otherwise textbookish.https://twitter.com/Maximilian_H1/status/851806211179675648   Permalink 5:28 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb To those who aren’t traders YET discuss UAL’s “billions in losses” in valuation. The market move today is TOTALLY within noise. pic.twitter.com/LUZXX7KnQ9 Permalink 2:49 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb God bless you if true, @Cernovichhttps://twitter.com/cernovich/status/851897652711104512   Permalink 1:52 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb So this fellow speaks for a group claiming an evidence-based study of the Syrian problem?https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/851861056385417219   Permalink 11:32 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) To those IYI idiots w/cost-free virtue signaling, I have 6 Syrian refugees on my property in Lebanon. Without #Skininthegame, shut up. Permalink 9:23 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The Assad family blew up my house. But I forcefully OPPOSE his removal. Better have a Franco than Gadhafi transitionhttps://medium.com/opacity/the-syrian-war-condensed-a-more-rigorous-way-to-look-at-the-conflict-f841404c3b1d   Permalink 8:52 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@EHSANI22 This type of media-induced policy shift — once called the CNN effect — is not newhttps://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/04/10/did-media-images-just-change-u-s-policy-in-syria-three-lessons-from-kosovo/   Permalink 7:21 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@DanielLMcAdams With no shame…https://twitter.com/JustinRaimondo/status/851801487285952512   Permalink 7:20 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb At a Seder last night was asked to read a fragment in Aramaic in the original accent.Unprepared for the diacriticals https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Seder.m4a   Permalink 6:57 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Did @realDonaldTrump betray his constituency by taking a neocon fragilista interventionist approach to regime change, or is it just noise? Permalink 5:44 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Real Life is Risk Taking”https://medium.com/p/real-life-is-risk-taking-ac424efd5fcc   Permalink 4:58 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Without #skininthegame people keep repeating the same mistakes.https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/851217595957211137   Permalink 4:32 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Sawiris (a Copt, Severus) is saying that states are attacking terrorists, but ignoring the Sheikhs preaching terror, real source.https://twitter.com/NaguibSawiris/status/851005866165895168   Permalink 4:10 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Instead of increasing the $$, United opted to forcibly remove a passenger. They fughotaboud markets. Do they deserve punishment by markets? Permalink 3:56 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb My best profile except that, to retaliate [see story], the angry photographer whom I insulted made my face swell.https://twitter.com/lucknow_leopard/status/851449213028364288   Permalink 8:32 AM – 10 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Conspiracy theorists in the opposite direction: I will transit in Warsaw instead. Note: you need a Russian visa to transit in Moscow-> Minskhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/850389220241924099   Permalink 7:11 AM – 10 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Scott Ritter’s account is very rational. Something in this CW story seems strange: forensic evidence coming from …AlQaeda.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/851190584752656386   Permalink 2:55 PM – 9 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I was actually stuck in ATL for 7 hours. Benefit: Started model of tail risk from flights scheduled too close to one another.https://twitter.com/mikephillips1/status/850842831774154753   Permalink 12:21 PM – 9 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Unlike Copts: Shiites, Leb Christians, Alawites & Druze are armed to the teeth They know NO Sunni gov can really protect them #SkinintheGame Permalink 8:53 AM – 9 Apr 2017

@dkbissinger @nntaleb how reading news reduces one’s knowledgehttps://twitter.com/rypauley/status/851034975717687296   Permalink 7:48 AM – 9 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Adding a section to The Intellectual Yet Idiot https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cLdJyKhakf”>  pic.twitter.com/cLdJyKhakf Permalink 7:23 AM – 9 Apr 2017

@GennadySimanovs since now every economist tried to convince me that opposite is true and 1% of Top doesw not pay taxes at all cc @stevesi @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/5MsFhMdVD0 Permalink 7:21 AM – 9 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday to all. Permalink 6:06 AM – 9 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Now, a strike against the originating Saudi Arabian airfield is needed for consistency. I am certain that pics of children are on the way.https://twitter.com/YemenPostNews/status/850700849424855041   Permalink 2:23 PM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb From reactions of “libertarians” to Syrian strikes: they view + The state as the main agent of war + War as main pretense for state powers. Permalink 1:02 PM – 8 Apr 2017

@Cernovich Entire air strike may be been kayfabe, which was predicted by @ScottAdamsSays, deemed likely by @nntaleb.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4390942/Syria-claims-KNEW-launch-airstrikes.html   Permalink 9:51 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb So I too fell for the Tophet baby-killermsmear campaign ag Phoenicians! Children cemeteries were because of … simple children mortality pic.twitter.com/jRzSC1RxfR Permalink 8:35 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The most ancient smear campaign is the “baby killer”, used against Punic & Canaanites (only partly justifiable w/the tophet). #LindyEffect Permalink 8:07 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The most ancient smear campaign is the “baby killer”, used against Punic & Canaanites (only partly justifiable w/the tophet). #LindyEffect Permalink 8:07 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@catoletters Nikki Haley begins each UN speech with the Used Car Salesman pitch “Let tell you the truth”, “Let me be honest with you” Permalink 7:17 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) Note: Social media: a) distributes images of children b) unlike MSM doesn’t filter WHICH children to show. This may help peace. Maybe. Permalink 7:16 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2nd order effects: Once you make policy based on PICTURES of children victims, ALL parties will now produce pictures of children. Kapish? Permalink 6:40 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@CamilleOtrakji When the US+UK were working on toppling Iran’s popular prime minister in 1953, the lovely BBC was part of regime change, just like today pic.twitter.com/OMqlfBOQKl Permalink 4:34 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Convexity effect # Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/fermatslibrary/status/850448409777520640   Permalink 7:00 PM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Not so fast… Something to consider. Egyptians are saying 4 children,5 adults died. Retaliate for death of children by…killing children? pic.twitter.com/dVBLqhpqZ7 Permalink 6:38 PM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Apparently they spared the runway (2 fighter jets took off today). “Drole de guerre” (phony war). Donaldo playing MSM & libs like a violin. pic.twitter.com/SfvD819J6p Permalink 6:06 PM – 7 Apr 2017

@tlhote A french teacher at the officer academy of St Cyr is explaining in more details in your direction.http://conscientia.fr/2017/04/07/frappe-us-en-syrie-la-nuit-des-dupes-masquait-un-joli-de-coup-de-billard/#more-838   Permalink 2:28 PM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink in a diluted sauce w/ tomato pic.twitter.com/HrFotSMdGd Permalink 9:47 AM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Conspiracy theorists: For the record, I will transit in Moscow airport new week on way to a conference in a neighboring country. Permalink 9:46 AM – 7 Apr 2017

@gt_carter Hey @nntaleb how does it feel to always be right? ;-) Permalink 7:30 AM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The strike has ~0 military impact. Russians were informed & Syrians could clear area. All it says: no Chem Weapons even if it wasn’t you. Permalink 6:42 AM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Did Prez Trump do a “Facta Non Verba” on Assad? So he could control him? Yes, he did on Assad, N Korea, China…https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49   Permalink 5:39 AM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Media pple of 2017 In Hammurabi’s code, ~3750 y. ago, a false accusation was punished as if the accuser committed the crime. Be careful. Permalink 2:39 PM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 5) Bravo! While MSM & policymakers are childlishly driven by images, this man is starting a v. rigorous process!!!https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-syria-on-april-4-2017-18448   Permalink 1:28 PM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 4) Worrisome: IF Assad has all to lose from such an act AND it happened, THEN he may have lost control of some of his troups. Permalink 12:49 PM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 4) Worrisome: IF Assad has all to lose from such an act AND it happened, THEN he may have lost control of some of his troups. Permalink 12:49 PM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb As a researcher I cannot possibly support a given party or person 100%. Never unconditional support. I support policies, never factions. Permalink 12:26 PM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb As a researcher I cannot possibly support a given party or person 100%. Never unconditional support. I support policies, never factions. Permalink 12:26 PM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 3) On the other hand, IF the story is true, THEN some action is needed. Permalink 11:51 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 3) On the other hand, IF the story is true, THEN some action is needed. Permalink 11:51 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) Historically blood libels against Jews have taken same shape: generalized hysteria on stories of children kidnapped & drained of blood Permalink 11:06 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb He pronounced “Kabish?”https://twitter.com/udaberg/status/850016348268843008   Permalink 9:15 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Investigate, don’t be blinded by emo-pictures. Can be true but 3750 years of justice system shouldn’t be wiped out by Qatari PR !https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/849797885357109249   Permalink 7:50 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Very very unorthodox but it works pic.twitter.com/QVrRhxCTom Permalink 7:26 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I am not yet certain that it’s a lie, but I am not certain it is truth. We need more rigorous investigation BEFORE policy statements.https://twitter.com/DanielLMcAdams/status/849871224494804992   Permalink 6:36 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The Susan Rice Affair: 1) Today, unlike in 1970, EVERYTHING government officials do leaves indelible traces 2) They are likely to forget it Permalink 6:05 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Slight mistake thta dpesn’t matter for m=0: mad should be \int \sqrt{(x-m)^2} dx Permalink 8:27 PM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb How BS vendors BS, a sample.https://twitter.com/quinnovator/status/849801913755353088   Permalink 8:19 PM – 5 Apr 2017

@Darius1296 One should do the opposite. A good heuristic would be: the more potent the pictures, the more you question the evidence. Permalink 2:25 PM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Syria: Are people reacting to the pictures of children or from EVIDENCE? The more potent the pictures, the less you question the evidence. Permalink 2:20 PM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb As you can see, I got this from HIS feed. pic.twitter.com/s7lvHNE638 Permalink 12:14 PM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Note that 2/4 is 4/2 in US. Kapish? Permalink 12:11 PM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) The only person I know who is both famous & technically superior is Mathematica’s Stephen @Wolfram Not an academic. Never met Gell-Mann Permalink 11:50 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) The only person I know who is both famous & technically superior is Mathematica’s Stephen @Wolfram Not an academic. Never met Gell-Mann Permalink 11:50 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The plot thickens.https://twitter.com/HKX07/status/849460664376709120   Permalink 11:43 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Probability Du Jour: The border between thin tails & fat tails resides in exponential distribution. Maximum entropy under MAD constraint. pic.twitter.com/cAXWRqVzS9 Permalink 11:38 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Peter Hitchens, the smart brother http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2017/04/its-wmd-all-over-again-why-dont-you-see-it-.html   Permalink 9:38 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb This is how the Fat Tails book looks like pic.twitter.com/7ybHj56YFX Permalink 8:24 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Interesting.https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/849635794994286592   Permalink 8:08 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb These MBA charts are repelling, they stand ag. everything classical & rigorous.https://twitter.com/hjarche/status/849626971269189632   Permalink 7:21 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Wildcard criticism: sentences that can apply to anything, s.a. “narcissistic”, “he thinks he knows everything”,… https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154746535088375   Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) I understand Tillerson was not a risk-taking entrepreneur, but executive is better, much better than bureaucrat. Kapish? Permalink 5:54 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 4) Paranoia has a statistical analog: Akaike & similar, the ratio of complexity/overparametrization of the fitted function to # data points. Permalink 5:29 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb BS vendors are not used to people like Tillerson who don’t like to spend their lives crafting statements, talk, talk and talk.https://twitter.com/kjhealy/status/849420383753261060   Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Apr 2017

Kasparov, Gingrich, Monsanto, IQ, Fat Tony, Genius, An Inconsiderate Man | Twitter

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@nntaleb New version of my paper on power laws with stochastic exponent https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.02369   Permalink 5:14 PM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) Actually there is a heuristic, my days: “A good chess player makes a sharp trader. An excellent chess player makes a dumb trader.” Permalink 7:13 AM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Garry Boy @Kasparov63 I agree for removing Assad if you settle in Syria & deal w/effects. #SkinInTheGame #SecondOrderEffects #LudicFallacyhttps://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/848989093803552768   Permalink 6:58 AM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) As @ArmandDAngour can confirm, “Be antifragile or die” is “Vale” in Latin, means also “hello” or “goodbye” @goc9000 Permalink 6:01 AM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) And #SkinintheGame has not been even completed yet! Permalink 4:57 AM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Watching #SkinintheGame & #Antifragile leading to firm policy, the dismantlement of the Soviet-Harvard/Thaler-Sunstein IYI machinery in DC. pic.twitter.com/eqoKoh5sq9 Permalink 4:54 AM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb “As Taleb says “become #Antifragile, or die””. I don’t recall said that but it’s good enough.https://twitter.com/andyben/status/849008384233918467   Permalink 3:32 AM – 4 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 3) Wrote inThe Black Swan (Narrative Fallacy chapter)how paranoid people could concoct the most elaborate narrative from minimum facts. Permalink 3:16 PM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) There is a vast logical gap between suspicion based on specific fact & accusation from ZERO information. Permalink 3:13 PM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Years of covering up lack of proof of safety of Glyphosate made the cases accumulate, and Monsanto more & more vulnerable. ByeBye Monsantohttps://twitter.com/GMOFreeUSA/status/849018447782707200   Permalink 3:07 PM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Not only is @Kasparov63 in extemely bad taste & insensitive to victims; but he needs psychiatric evaluation for paranoia/hallucinations.https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/848982714212634627   Permalink 12:48 PM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Antifragile = 2nd order effecthttps://twitter.com/adviceforbernie/status/848953979111452672   Permalink 11:01 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Current critique of IQ is that it doesn’t measure socio-emotional, dancing intelligence… Nonsense. IQ doesn’t capture 2nd order reasoning. Permalink 10:30 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb He also protects Copts from the Salafis and the previous government who dhimmified them (treated them as 3rd rate citizens).https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/848940653308514304   Permalink 10:11 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb When I see the NYT blame people who made their money BEFORE office, not AFTER office, I cringe. I cringe.https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 9:59 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@MattheWrite Hey losers, as @nntaleb pointed out, it’s better they made their money BEFORE taking office than afterhttps://twitter.com/nytimes/status/848892884791287809   Permalink 9:36 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Academic measures of IQ are bogus (too 1st order) But one’s output on Russian conspiracy/Trump is an excellent measure of intelligence. #IYI Permalink 8:42 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb They don’t speak Arabic, but (moderately) Arabized Aramaic. Note 164 http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm  https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/848856606288748546   Permalink 4:22 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Trying to read a paper. Which is LESS guilty of fake news (WMD-Iraq, Russo-showers), etc.? Ignore pol orientation, just record w/fake-news. Permalink 3:54 AM – 3 Apr 2017

@nntaleb This is BS: problem is not absence of causation, but spurious/accidental correlation (cherry picked), one that will not hold next 10 years.https://twitter.com/AmirSariaslan/status/848664012707549185   Permalink 3:34 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 6) Even coherence is loosely defined in decision theory: You are NOT incoherent if your preferences change when information not identical. Permalink 3:24 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 5) Antifragile: how intransitivity of preferences (Prefer A to B, B to C, C to A): randomization protects from depletion of resources Permalink 3:17 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 4) Word “rationality” is not Lindy Proof. It was born with probal/decision theory. Ancients had “wisdom”,”prudence”, sophrosyne, phronesis. Permalink 3:02 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 3) Many people misinterpret “rationality” in economic theory. It means just coherence. Permalink 2:59 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) If a cognitive “bias” is helpful, it is not a bias. There is NO theory of rationality that makes superstitions & religion irrational. Permalink 2:58 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 1)Result from 3 d discussing rationality in Bielefeld: no theory of rationality cares about decisions, only consequences Gigerenzer, Binmore pic.twitter.com/Hpf2yJiPYw Permalink 2:55 PM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Brilliant and ruthlessly impeccable logic: @DineshDSouza explaining #skininthegame to a “leftist” student at Amherst.https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/848577884931235840   Permalink 10:11 AM – 2 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Government shouldn’t be into dietary guidelines. Once they get a mistake in (as with carbs, HF corn sugar & salt), they cannot get it out. Permalink 8:33 AM – 2 Apr 2017

@SantiagoAuFund When follow supposedly deep thinkers on twitter & all they discuss is 1st level Russia Trump thinking u come to embrace @nntaleb IYI mantra. Permalink 7:03 PM – 1 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Now we pathologize success in America? Wealth BEFORE gov. much better than AFTER. Imbecile journos http://nbcnews.to/2ojMknA   via @nbcnews Permalink 3:30 PM – 1 Apr 2017

@nntaleb .@ArmandDAngour Suis la elle te fuit Fuis la elle te suit (Version moderne) Permalink 10:02 AM – 1 Apr 2017

@zaoyang If you’re using more than two reasons in a pro and con column you are likely trying to convince yourself. Via @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/y9G8HTDvgw Permalink 8:28 AM – 1 Apr 2017

@nntaleb (Cont) pic.twitter.com/iG3csbYaFJ Permalink 5:57 AM – 1 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Fat Tony vs Socrates, a Platonic dialogue pic.twitter.com/XipZZtaJZr Permalink 5:57 AM – 1 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Fat Tony debates Socrates in Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/__aesthete__/status/848001162217259008   Permalink 2:51 AM – 1 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Another problem with economists: their sense of humor is so… economist; you get what I mean.https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/847930504448020484   Permalink 4:25 PM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb .@nntaleb (testing) It is like drama that amplifies through transmission. Permalink 4:20 PM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Number of war casualties tends to drift upwards w/o information, bias coming from pple afraid to err on downside. Same as inflation.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/847507095414906880   Permalink 1:45 PM – 31 Mar 2017

@ClimateAudit Bronze Age Hittites were Indo-European. In Iron Age, descendant neo-Hittites localized in north Syria, SE Turkey. IE attributes unsurprising pic.twitter.com/ZsaF19PuXK Permalink 1:38 PM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb From @PZalloua’s genetic evidence, story emerges Assyrians & Phoenicians were “Indo-Europeans” w/Semitic lang (but not Babylnns/Chaldeans). Permalink 1:21 PM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Western Syrians (Lattaqia->Homs) are actually cross betw Greeks & Anatolians, related to Kurds, w/less Semitic J1 than other parts of Med.https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/847899807305711616   Permalink 1:17 PM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb One proof a day keeps the philosophasters away. pic.twitter.com/GyrNuvJPZp Permalink 10:06 AM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb An example of news is fake, and facts are false Washington Post Botches The Bible, Lies About Lawmaker’s Bible Quotehttp://thefederalist.com/2017/03/31/washington-post-lies-about-lawmakers-biblical-reference-then-refuses-to-quote-him/#.WN5_yLt3uPM.twitter   Permalink 9:12 AM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Fake experts, s.a. economists & political “scientists”, genuinely believe that when they are wrong, they are wrong in very smart ways. Permalink 8:27 AM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Statistics works better when seen as a branch of logic.https://twitter.com/philipbstark/status/847722147103481856   Permalink 3:44 AM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “Experts don’t mind being told they are wrong, provided they are shown to be wrong for complex reasons.” Bielefeld Festschrift, Ken Bilmore. Permalink 2:55 AM – 31 Mar 2017

@nntaleb One reason we think the past was more violent than reality is because historians like to discuss wars, not peace. Permalink 10:53 AM – 30 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 10) EPILOG, part 1 Nobody noticed that the mere fact of taking the fellow’s picture means he will refrain in future?https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49   Permalink 5:52 AM – 30 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Why Each One Should Eat His Own Turtles: Equality in Uncertainty”https://medium.com/p/why-each-one-should-eat-his-own-turtles-equality-in-uncertainty-e2b2ee3bcddf   Permalink 5:17 AM – 30 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 9) footnote: If you are outraged by a behavior, never tolerate IYIs who reduce such things to personal fights. Outrage has a social purpose. Permalink 5:44 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 8) Some precedent & philosophical background. We live in large anonymous communities, brought back to natural conditions by the web. pic.twitter.com/PuuviNrFXS Permalink 3:16 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “Inside the Academic Journal That Corporations Love” by @PacificStandhttps://psmag.com/inside-the-academic-journal-that-corporations-love-a1dbe48cca1c   Permalink 2:29 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 7) So the idea is to find the moral balance between not exposing him & exposing him, like type 1 and 2 errors in statistics. Permalink 2:26 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Great point. Symmetry (skin in the game) means you accept to be equally penalized if you committed the same violation @JosephJayMFG Permalink 2:04 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 6) On the other hand there is a moral obligation to protect weak people riding home after a long day from assholes like him. Permalink 1:45 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 5) The only moral problem I have to clarify: he didn’t know who I was, the # of followers, that he could be identified & mobbed & shamed. Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 4) When I threatened to take his photo he said: “go ahead”. Permalink 1:38 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 3) When I asked him to be quiet “& considerate” for the sake of the rest of passengers he said it was “not forbidden” to use cell. Permalink 1:36 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb More info: 1)He was chatting for 30min, no emergency 2) People who use cell phones usually go to the side by the exit door & are brief. Permalink 1:34 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb There is an inconsiderate man on Metro North is loud on his cell phone in some Scandinavian language & refuses to stop. Took photo. Permalink 1:12 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The difference between private and public is a matter of scale as much as it is a matter of incentive. Permalink 1:02 PM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Back to New York: Lindy Effect. pic.twitter.com/BBVw4WBtJF Permalink 9:08 AM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Except for categorical imperatives @primalpoly Permalink 7:53 AM – 29 Mar 2017

@HasHafidh A thread on understanding why “Islamic” extremism’s biggest problem isn’t with the West or even Israel, but rather with Muslim minorities.https://twitter.com/hashafidh/status/749944340848443392   Permalink 7:31 AM – 29 Mar 2017

@Isikoff KSA has “targeted U.S. veterans through a campaign of deception,” says letter to DOJ from 9/11 families.https://www.yahoo.com/news/911-families-seek-justice-department-probe-of-saudi-lobbying-that-enlisted-u-s-veterans-130740119.html   Permalink 6:37 AM – 29 Mar 2017

@sustain05 Convexity effects of rereading ~ via @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/uYGysO6tfP Permalink 6:26 AM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Genius is the side effect of madness, rather than the reverse. Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Mar 2017

@nntaleb No Saudi and Qatari propaganda, CNN ignores them.https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/846808864624447488   Permalink 12:41 PM – 28 Mar 2017

@nntaleb My final tweet for #IRMA2017. I thank Indian friends for the warm hospitality and their appetite for rigor in risk management. pic.twitter.com/4vGu7fprGr Permalink 6:59 AM – 28 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Du Jour #SkinintheGame συγκινδυνεύω= to share danger together. In Plato, thanks to @faleflix. Found in Lucian’s Ass. Latin: simul pericleo? pic.twitter.com/zu5YPtwGUF Permalink 4:34 AM – 28 Mar 2017

#IRMA2017, Michael Spagat, Bielefeld, Monsanto, Nowruz, Nudging Class, #StopArmingTerrorists Act | Twitter

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@nntaleb I bought your book BECAUSE of the fierceness of his negative review. @holland_tom Permalink 12:25 AM – 28 Mar 2017

@nntaleb .@holland_tom If true, this confirms he is an ethical asshole. He trashed you BECAUSE you preempted his thesis, not because you were wrong. Permalink 12:22 AM – 28 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “Der Intoleranteste gewinnt: Die Tyrannei der kleinen Minderheit” by Maximilian Hirnerhttps://medium.com/@Maximilian_H1/der-intoleranteste-gewinnt-die-tyrannei-der-kleinen-minderheit-22a738d56770   Permalink 12:05 AM – 28 Mar 2017

@DanielLMcAdams More truth you will never hear from US “fake news” MSM…https://twitter.com/TerrinaMajnoona/status/846588439797514242   Permalink 10:28 PM – 27 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Solution via Gruss’ inequality @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/3hl0nI9RdN Permalink 4:11 PM – 27 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Antifragile … in flipflops? No.https://twitter.com/npoler/status/846467958788501504   Permalink 2:16 PM – 27 Mar 2017

@nntaleb .@_khaaan Harassment with random comments is NOT scientific criticism. Permalink 11:49 AM – 27 Mar 2017

@PriancaMohan Such a good time at #IRMA2017 with @nntaleb.. Wonderful meeting you! pic.twitter.com/afmcsOywYp Permalink 11:45 AM – 27 Mar 2017

@nntaleb My response to Michael Spagat, Pinker’s sidekick who doesn’t know how to read Q-Q plots or correlation lags. https://mikespagat.wordpress.com/2016/09/30/a-new-graphical-manoeuvre-not-recommended/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Hrj6uMNI9k”>  pic.twitter.com/Hrj6uMNI9k Permalink 11:12 AM – 27 Mar 2017

@blitzkreigm This Happened @nntaleb sang a Punjabi Song too! #IRMA2017 pic.twitter.com/YHey5KFKtO Permalink 8:24 AM – 27 Mar 2017

@Navin_Shetty1 #IRMA2017 @nntaleb helathiest Europe will be one which is handled by least amount of people from Brussels Permalink 7:35 AM – 27 Mar 2017

@_anujsinghal Nassim Taleb has the audience in complete awe as he starts giving examples of risk management in trading and finance #IRMA2017 pic.twitter.com/0q36R6KTho Permalink 6:57 AM – 27 Mar 2017

@anandmmedar At #IRMA2017 @CNBCTV18News @CNBCTV18Live pic.twitter.com/P1J4l3WBu5 Permalink 6:53 AM – 27 Mar 2017

@CNBCTV18News Do you have any questions for @nntaleb? Tweet them to us using #IRMA2017 and get answers LIVE on Facebook at 8 PM.https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/845908501423706112   Permalink 11:33 PM – 26 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I fatti sono veri, le notizie sono false http://www.ilpost.it/2017/03/26/fatti-veri-notizie-false/   via @ilpost Permalink 3:47 AM – 26 Mar 2017

@nntaleb My coauthor Espen Haug, former trader, antiacademic quant, just published a paper in… Acta Astronautica.http://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2017/03/25/photon-rockets-might-make-mars-a-three-minute-trip/#1754a13e34fa   Permalink 3:26 AM – 26 Mar 2017

@CNBCTV18News Meet the man who changed the way the world looks at Risks. @nntaleb speaks to @Latha_Venkatesh tomorrow LIVE on FB at 8 PM #IRMA2017 pic.twitter.com/aTEZeiJNc0 Permalink 1:01 AM – 26 Mar 2017

@nntaleb A book is something that can be read ten years after publication. A real book, twenty. Otherwise it is a magazine report with bookbinding. Permalink 9:11 PM – 25 Mar 2017

@NonMeek .@nntaleb …here’s the final #Offshorecomic to the “lecturing-birds-on-flying” -series inspired by #Antifragile. #Consulting (part 2 of 2) pic.twitter.com/1KAtYfGUu2 Permalink 11:35 AM – 25 Mar 2017

@normonics This is 1 reason ‘more regulation’ is often not a solution. As long as there is regulatory capture, it will not serve its intended function.https://twitter.com/USRightToKnow/status/845018577841405952   Permalink 2:07 PM – 23 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The EPA being owned by Monsanto, the libertarian dream is reduced corrupt agencies & let markets forces provide information.https://twitter.com/robin_mesnage/status/844203488351571968   Permalink 9:12 AM – 21 Mar 2017

@nntaleb If you do not take risks for your ideas you are nothing. Nothing. pic.twitter.com/9htuSEageI Permalink 8:33 AM – 21 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I just posted my election forecasting methodology on ArXiv https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf   Permalink 4:26 AM – 21 Mar 2017

@nntaleb When you win an argument…https://twitter.com/confusezeus/status/843988816146894848   Permalink 5:58 PM – 20 Mar 2017

@nntaleb And fighting with pro-Salafi Nadim in, of all places, an Iranian restaurant @Confusezeus @yaneerbaryam @IbrahimWarde Permalink 5:10 PM – 20 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The case for blocking journos.https://twitter.com/ABeschloss/status/843927920636772353   Permalink 3:09 PM – 20 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The Merket Handshake was Fake News. He shook hands 2x same day. How to read the news.https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2#.ckb3mxhm1   Permalink 11:46 AM – 20 Mar 2017

@nntaleb OK, of those who who don’t get it I will block journos & mute the rest. I will also block every journo whowritesfor Huff Post, regardless.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/843508644415225856   Permalink 9:31 AM – 20 Mar 2017

@nntaleb To my Iranian friends, happy Nowruz and best wishes on this rebirth, regeneration, and renewal, of nature. Permalink 6:01 AM – 20 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Cheating with Lagrange manual KKT @vejaocentro @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/Hq8n2jNtNy Permalink 7:01 PM – 19 Mar 2017

@adamjohnsonNYC on the 14th anniversary of Iraq War remember not just how the media sold it, but how fucking smug they were doing so https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/02/06/irrefutable/e598b1be-a78a-4a42-8e1a-c336f7a217f4/?utm_term=.41b0b375bbe1   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/RdJp6WQtF6″>  pic.twitter.com/RdJp6WQtF6 Permalink 3:49 PM – 19 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Many respond w/o knowing what aphorism/paradox/YogiBerrism/Sarcasm mean. I usually auto-Mute bt is it fair for them to Block so they know? Permalink 10:05 AM – 19 Mar 2017

@nntaleb New Version of “Surgeons Should Not Look Like Surgeons”: Never hire someone from Harvard; Gyms shd not be fancy… https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52#.o6cxtzo1a   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y9ZP6IMSnC”>  pic.twitter.com/y9ZP6IMSnC Permalink 5:55 AM – 19 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Thanks for the survey, ~4k votes. 91% of my followers believe furloughing State Department pple would have a positive impact on the world.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/842725131613065218   Permalink 5:04 AM – 19 Mar 2017

@nntaleb From comments I am getting for (2), the notion of *paradox* appears to be foreign to IYIs. So is that of the application of *aphorisms*. Permalink 6:24 PM – 18 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The problem is not Louise Mensch. The problem is the NYT. They have recourse to Conspiracy theories by someone patently mentally ill.https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/843148409511002112   Permalink 12:49 PM – 18 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Thanks everyone for the generosity & answers. So looks like 3 days in Seville, 2 in Granada, 1 in Cordoba (this trip) Permalink 10:58 AM – 18 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I fail to understand the press.They forget that WE know that THEY are stupid.https://twitter.com/alxpr1c3/status/843129784561532929   Permalink 9:27 AM – 18 Mar 2017

@nntaleb (Note to those IYIs who can’t get it: things you wouldn’t read as a book you can read as articles, or, better, summaries). Permalink 8:11 AM – 18 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 9) Never read a book if you don’t expect to be surprised by something in it, while reading it. Permalink 8:07 AM – 18 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 8) Never read a book if you know what you are getting out of it. Permalink 7:57 AM – 18 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 6) Never read a textbook as if you were reading a book 7) Never read a textbook in the sequence prescribed by the author(s) Permalink 7:47 AM – 18 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 4) Never read a book written by a journalist 5) Never read a book if you understand the table of contents Permalink 7:42 AM – 18 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 1) Never read a book that can be adequately summarized 2) Never read a book you would not reread 3) No book that can be shortened survives Permalink 7:01 AM – 18 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Friends what is the best 6-day allocation in Andalucia better than 33% Cordoba, 33% Granada, 33% Seville? Permalink 8:01 PM – 17 Mar 2017

@nntaleb My accent in Akkadian is better! https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/hammurabi.mp3   @fitzmorrissey Permalink 12:32 PM – 17 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Someone asked me to find a Lebanese IYI. @peterdaou would be an excellent representative. @sahouraxohttps://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.zt851y6am   Permalink 9:08 AM – 17 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Finally my paper on election forecasting is finished. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/elections1.pdf   Permalink 7:59 AM – 17 Mar 2017

@p_sfitz Here @nntaleb is wrong for once. Need EU to also take the same year off!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/842726365925466112   Permalink 6:17 AM – 17 Mar 2017

@nntaleb . @saifedean Hence my following tweet about the State department. If they take a year off, Israel-Palestine is solved by itself. Permalink 6:16 AM – 17 Mar 2017

@nntaleb If we forced policymakers of the State Department to take a year off (take painting & pottery classes), the effect on worldwide peace: Permalink 6:11 AM – 17 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Government in Lebanon is mostly political patronage. Municipalities are the future. (Saif is the first Libertarian Palestinian on planet.)https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/842720363062747137   Permalink 6:02 AM – 17 Mar 2017

@garyruskin The @EPA May Have Been in Bed with Big Pesticide for Years. http://bit.ly/2nsuUVO   A nice summary of recent #glyphosate events by @esquire Permalink 1:07 PM – 16 Mar 2017

@nntaleb No, I don’t. I don’t usually have “new” “cool” ideas.https://twitter.com/random_coco/status/842196194390626305   Permalink 12:06 PM – 16 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Dismantle the metastatic administrative state. Defang the Obamist bureaucrato-academic-nudging class. Make America #Antifragile Again! Permalink 9:24 AM – 16 Mar 2017

@FamCapital Viewpoint: Family Businesses and the Lindy Effect #fambiz #businessowner @nntaleb http://www.famcap.com/articles/2017/3/16/viewpoint-family-businesses-and-the-lindy-effect   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/OPOtZN6Lqv”>  pic.twitter.com/OPOtZN6Lqv Permalink 8:03 AM – 16 Mar 2017

@nntaleb @nickgiIlepsie was just pulling Nick’s leg. He probably meant economic thinking. Permalink 7:59 AM – 16 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “Non-Anglo-American erudition”? Like saying “non-Anglo-American Medieval History”, “non-Anglo-American cuisine”, “non-Anglo-American opera”https://twitter.com/nickgillespie/status/842357726650986496   Permalink 6:06 AM – 16 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Stop reading about Holland and read this.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/842352522325032961   Permalink 6:01 AM – 16 Mar 2017

@VergilDen If @nntaleb has ever called you an imbecile (or a fucking idiot), this is why pic.twitter.com/2RJkHHQFKf Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Mar 2017

@nntaleb In other words, culturally more integrated areas, a better way to name region.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/842212268121161730   Permalink 8:17 PM – 15 Mar 2017

@nntaleb We name areas by land mass: Africa, Europe… More natural to name by water mass: North-Atlantic, Mediterranean, Red Sea,Arabian Sea, Baltic Permalink 8:13 PM – 15 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I contradicted an economist on his BS models. He replied that I was working for Putin. http://thebea.st/2mtENxE   via @thedailybeast Permalink 2:23 PM – 15 Mar 2017

@NewtTrump John McCain accuses Rand Paul of working for Vladimir Putin. RETWEET if you think McCain needs to retire already! pic.twitter.com/EImWcg97Gu Permalink 2:00 PM – 15 Mar 2017

@seanmdav Trump’s effective rate in 2005 wasn’t 25%. Using the same formula for Obama’s 2016 rate (taxes / AGI), Trump’s effective rate was 79%. Permalink 1:48 PM – 15 Mar 2017

@pierpont_morgan “Monsanto had ghostwritten research that was later attributed to academics…” You’d be surprised how often this happens. pic.twitter.com/amdwNa1f6n Permalink 10:54 AM – 15 Mar 2017

@TulsiPress Dems & Republicans can agree on this: it’s time to pass the #StopArmingTerrorists Acthttps://gabbard.house.gov/news/press-releases/gabbards-stop-arming-terrorists-act-introduced-senate   Permalink 9:00 AM – 15 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Thanks for the votes. Another option: calling wconomics &other unsocial science “The Empty Profession”? & econ books “Empty Science”? Permalink 8:48 AM – 15 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Funded by Obama and promoted by lobbyists/think tank agents such as @MiddleEastInst @BrookingsDoha. The same AlQaeda.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/842035595983626240   Permalink 8:35 AM – 15 Mar 2017

@DavidBCollum Hey @nntaleb: Kinda looking like your hatred of Monsanto is well founded. Sure you know this but…http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-14/court-docs-prove-monsanto-collusion-epa-kill-cancer-study-admits-cant-say-roundup-do   Permalink 7:06 PM – 14 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the game & Symmetry. If a reporter does it to me, I should do it to him/her.https://twitter.com/a_lesniewski/status/841822447905181696   Permalink 6:36 PM – 14 Mar 2017

@nntaleb h/t @BBassem7 See also myhttps://medium.com/opacity/the-syrian-war-condensed-a-more-rigorous-way-to-look-at-the-conflict-f841404c3b1d#.pcatnf2yf   Permalink 6:18 PM – 14 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I keep saying many of the pictures from the Syrian war were fake, supplied by Qatari PR firms. This one wen a bit far. pic.twitter.com/OCuN4M8Ojw Permalink 6:01 PM – 14 Mar 2017

@financequant When people ask me what they ought to study in economics, I tell them (1) Learn what the Lindy Efect is and (2) study history instead. Permalink 3:50 PM – 14 Mar 2017

@nntaleb How should be calling the economics “profession”? Permalink 8:32 AM – 14 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Are you in a sick business (journos)? If you worry about the opinion of your peers, not your clients, you are doomedhttps://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2#.19le9cum6   Permalink 8:15 AM – 14 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Will attend & hopefully deliver a brief lecturehttps://twitter.com/SYRIAC_MARONITE/status/841636582260146176   Permalink 6:11 AM – 14 Mar 2017

@lukasnaugle True intellect should not appear to be intellectual. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/9PDNpMA39a Permalink 5:22 AM – 14 Mar 2017

Economists, Fake News, Turkish Lira, IQ, MY Planet, Kapish, Grandmothers, Neo-Stalinism, Umberto Eco’s Library | Twitter

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@nntaleb Terms for the heinous s.a. “Nazi”,”racist”,”Hitler” get debased/corrupted over time,similar to the historical debasement of coins/currencies Permalink 12:35 PM – 13 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Added paragraph on how in Mediterranean news circulates through gatherings: mostly funerals.https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2#.k66ii4azv   Permalink 7:56 AM – 13 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I will from now on call economists “the wrongest profession”, w/attribution. @schmittpaula Permalink 7:44 AM – 13 Mar 2017

@nntaleb An illustration of how economists market the idea that if you do not believe in their unscientific BS, you are against “knowledge”.https://twitter.com/Aligarciaherrer/status/841091830427074560   Permalink 6:21 AM – 13 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Thing I learned today. From this sign: 1) Georgian script is written left to right. 2) Unlike Semitic scr it has explicit vowels. pic.twitter.com/Xj4z9oBjHE Permalink 1:57 PM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The Facts are True, the News is Fake”https://medium.com/p/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 10:48 AM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb For your book to be read in 20y, make sure content is 1) important for people today, 2) was also important 20 y ago. #Lindy @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 8:53 AM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The continuous & severe secular devaluation of the Turkish lira (USD-TRL) maps one-to-one to the devaluation of the terms “nazi” & “fascist” Permalink 6:16 AM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Nothing.https://twitter.com/NinjaEconomics/status/840797531479015427   Permalink 5:57 AM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The argument is that they know they can be harmed by price fixing as they may lose a job/ not get one. @spencerrs34 Permalink 6:22 PM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) Those affected by a minimum wage are those who earn currently below it and risk losing a job. Markets are Markets. Permalink 3:52 PM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the Game: Let the unemployed & those earning below some threshold decide on minimum wage, not some virtue signaling bureaucrat. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 8) One has to unlearn comparing probabilistic situations w/functions using “average” except under mean-field #Antifragile & @yaneerbaryam Permalink 11:56 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@mikeandallie A math exploration via an interesting integral posted by Nassim Taleb: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/03/11/a-math-exploration-via-an-interesting-integral-from-nassim-taleb/   #math #mathchat cc: @nntaleb Permalink 7:28 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Mr Josh Barro, @jbarro do you have any other expertise than selling BS? Permalink 7:10 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 7) I put “IQ” in “” as I don’t believe that measured IQ includes ability to tinker aggressively, real IQ for me. #GreenLumber #AntiFragile Permalink 7:04 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 6) A more technical discussion from scratchpad: Why the Tail is a different business, the more we go in the tails, the less the mean counts. pic.twitter.com/ufvpkJmEGL Permalink 6:43 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 5) In fact I simplified a bit. Popul. success depends on distribution of tails, Extr. Value Distribution. Discussed in book w/ @DrCirillo Permalink 6:28 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 4) This threshold phenomena is NECESSARY in the presence of winner-take-all in scientific & economic success (s. a. Pareto 80/20). Permalink 6:21 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 3) I wd fight w/baseball bat for @charlesmurray ‘s right of speech, but this central flaw was missed by his idiotic detractors. #middleburry Permalink 6:18 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) This in short explains why linking IQ to success for populations is total nonsense in the presence of nonlinearity. pic.twitter.com/sMeLFdWWlx Permalink 6:16 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 1) Assuming “IQ” helps success; the performance of a population would depend >>more on the variance than average. (convexity, #Antifragile) Permalink 6:09 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “First, do no harm” is Lindy-compatible (2500 y.o.) @normonics @GuruAnaerobic Permalink 3:20 PM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The libertarian version is to consider harm to the environment as harm against MY planet.http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2988742/apolloearth_a_wake_up_call_in_our_race_against_time.html   Permalink 9:00 AM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK.https://twitter.com/realistgrower/status/840027938162540544   Permalink 8:55 AM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb For those into integration, a difficult integral.http://math.stackexchange.com/q/2180737/88078?stw=2   Permalink 7:45 AM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Electricians, barbers, gardeners, surgeons, tango dancers, are experts. Not economists. How do we know who’s expert?https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.bf46qtuzd   Permalink 5:53 AM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Who is still reading you, I may ask? @NoceraBV Permalink 6:37 PM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Pseudo-experts (pol “scientists”, econs, journos) are making our disrespect for charlatans look like disrespect for all expert. Stop them.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/839973967624458240   Permalink 6:31 PM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I will NEVER write for Foreign Affairs again. Imbeciles.https://twitter.com/ForeignAffairs/status/839966563209973761   Permalink 2:59 PM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Olive oil, etc. @startupdaemon Permalink 11:20 AM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Oddity du jour: Constantinople, unlike Rome (& Antioch, Alexandria,& Athens) doesn’t have a Mediterranean climate. Permalink 7:03 AM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The formal difference between press & propaganda is unconditional & indiscriminate detraction or unconditional & indiscriminate support. Permalink 5:40 AM – 9 Mar 2017

@NewAlbrecht Continuing parade of people seeking to correct @nntaleb’s spelling of capisce (Kapish) is fascinating. Permalink 1:45 PM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The rule is: Use “BUT” as a logical operator, not to seek protection from consequences of your opinion. Kapish? @learnfromerror Permalink 12:56 PM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Typical wussiness: “I do not support Trump, but…” “I support Obama, but…” “I don’t always agree w/this *egomaniac* Taleb, but…” Permalink 12:25 PM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 3) In Antifragile, I explain that if the condition is mild, IGNORE doctor (grandmother is to distract). If severe, go to doctor. @SawsaGa Permalink 6:36 AM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) In medicine & tech domains, there are grounds to ignore the grandmother. In what relates to human nature (psychology), Lindy. @SawsaGa Permalink 6:31 AM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 1) There is a bias: grandmothers’ iatrogenics are seen, not those of medicine. I will be making a tableau. @SawsaGa Permalink 6:30 AM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb So asking your grandmother beats these “scientists” any minute. Or Montaigne. Lindy explained in my link https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.h2ikeddwu  https://twitter.com/BrianNosek/status/838742797742190592   Permalink 5:39 AM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Nohttps://twitter.com/GTCost/status/838567117150535682   Permalink 6:12 PM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Anything people say before the “but” 1) doesn’t count, 2) is a sign of weakness & should be avoided in straightforward prose.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/838480429732806656   Permalink 12:12 PM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Pareto on the Intellectual Yet Idiots why they make bad rulers @Maximilian_H1 pic.twitter.com/GkzUxLj2u3 Permalink 8:32 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Added a comment explaining the Salafi danger to the Chapter on Asymmetries w Minorities https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.a0mrs2gq9   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6YTPk6Omqk”>  pic.twitter.com/6YTPk6Omqk Permalink 8:03 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “Mis.” stand for “misattributed to”. What did you think it represented? @rsjanabasis Permalink 6:23 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to death your RIGHT to say it”(mis.Voltaire) but if you use violence to repress MY right… Permalink 6:10 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Banko detected the common mistake by IYIs is to think that one cannot write original science in a nonacademic, literary format.https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/838264746222702592   Permalink 4:49 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The double imbecile Yglesias wants to repress @charlesmurray ‘s free speech w/violence then calls him Hitler. Double Imbecile. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/838099996461436930   Permalink 5:18 PM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb They are looking at criminals… who were caught, no?https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/838058140612493312   Permalink 9:09 AM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) These idiots from CNN didn’t get the point. pic.twitter.com/I1VTaTdK1Y Permalink 6:30 AM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Only The Rich Are Poisoned: The Preference of Others”https://medium.com/p/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68   Permalink 6:07 AM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb There is no charm in becoming the establishment.https://twitter.com/TruthHawkLive/status/837945176605741057   Permalink 4:24 AM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Neo-Stalinism.https://twitter.com/charlesmurray/status/837675287445929984   Permalink 7:05 PM – 3 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Representation of the inequality @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/zDzvqiO9g5 Permalink 6:03 PM – 3 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Different angles: Proof that a picture is worth 1024 equations @CutTheKnotMath @Taitamco pic.twitter.com/UuUw1GAQZc Permalink 1:35 PM – 3 Mar 2017

@nntaleb My visit to Umberto Eco’s library. His library looked like a library, but he didn’t look like an author. https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52#.gy9xyrq0r   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BqJaGP2DI5″>  pic.twitter.com/BqJaGP2DI5 Permalink 8:25 AM – 3 Mar 2017

Math, White Helmets, Election Forecasting, GW Bush, Kapish, John Gray, Kenneth Roth, Salafasism | Twitter

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@nntaleb 3) Had anyone asked me if I met with a RUssian official, my answer would have been flatly “NO”. Permalink 3:37 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) He sat 3 seats down, partook of conversation but I didn’t focus on who he was. You only know when pple remind you of it (he just died) Permalink 3:22 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Meeting w/Russian Ambassadors w/o being aware: Just discovered I had dinner w/the late UN Russian amb in NY, Oct 24 w/o realizing. No plot. Permalink 3:20 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@mdvex This centralisation thing works wellhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-finds-the-cause-of-its-aws-outage-a-typo-1488490506   Permalink 2:07 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Just added a chapter. For comments, thanks!https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49#.rh7scb14m   Permalink 1:03 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@NECSI What is #fragility? via @nntaleb, who will teach our May program on Strategic Data Analytics w/ @yaneerbaryamhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgS2feyXmWw   Permalink 12:56 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb It took me a while to realize you can’t convince economists; but we can work on the dismantlement of the DC economic machinery.https://twitter.com/robertwjordway/status/837366154771513348   Permalink 10:56 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb .@ottorosseforp @PZalloua To the contrary. Means STATISTICALLY “there is NO definition of Phoenician THAT matches tribes w/J1”. Kapish? Permalink 7:44 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Phenician expansion in Med, 1 mill BC did not export J1 gene, so there is evidence population was not Semitic. @ottorosseforp @PZalloua Permalink 6:36 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb J1 correlates with Semitic genes, does not equate with them. But absence indicates non-Semitic population @PZalloua Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 1) Way to see our theory that Phoenicians, Assyrians & N Caananites were not Semites: J2, J2a (light Green) v/s J1 (dark Gr) @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/t9w3IYRByg Permalink 5:44 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb …and b****t is using a generic statement from some wisdom handbook that can apply indiscriminately to anything you don’t like.https://twitter.com/jcrowrva/status/837287115524288512   Permalink 5:06 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Are there other societies where the person on top is not a risk-taker? How about devoid of rituals? https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52#.sw3giv10a   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ejzH6u6wdA”>  pic.twitter.com/ejzH6u6wdA Permalink 4:32 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the game, almost finished pic.twitter.com/6sEm1JDeWg Permalink 6:13 PM – 1 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Mathematics and baldness.https://twitter.com/daniellerommel/status/837072594222227456   Permalink 3:29 PM – 1 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Fake news tricks: NYT distorts my words, making it look as if I (not them) made an association w/”shame”. @realDonaldTrump is right. pic.twitter.com/NlQc94Q4zC Permalink 7:20 AM – 1 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Adult Math olympiads @MoMath1 pic.twitter.com/Wymyi54AgV Permalink 6:41 PM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The clip summarizes my problem with scientism/GMO charlatanshttps://twitter.com/R3plicant1/status/836624440813223941   Permalink 10:43 AM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A quant/engineering approach. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/hRPjkQXgq6 Permalink 7:11 AM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We should have special treatments/cures for neo-cons.https://twitter.com/Confusezeus/status/836584933552504832   Permalink 7:02 AM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The more you go into the tails, the less people & things should look like they way they should look likehttps://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52#.tyea44sb1   Permalink 6:37 AM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb MSM = propaganda; Insult to 9/11 victims.They are wittingly/un promoting White Helmets in spite of evidence it is AlQaeda cover w/Saudi PR.https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/836060012220928001   Permalink 10:11 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mini-Probability Mooc (6 min) Continuous Time Election Forecasting https://youtu.be/wA_3RwEIqzI   via @YouTube Permalink 10:00 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Levantine roots, Part 2 (plus some grammar) @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/8MlhoF1sU9 Permalink 9:02 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Levantine roots, Part 1. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/IvkkvtO472 Permalink 9:01 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For those into Orthodox lent, this is the Greek calendar. @ektrit @sustain05 @nanexllc pic.twitter.com/R3REBPaDFb Permalink 8:53 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We also want answers from GW Bush on WMD. And the “victory”. And the “stabilization” of Iraq/Afghanistan. And the costs of the war (s).https://twitter.com/davewiner/status/836219418015301632   Permalink 6:49 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nero was slandered w/he performed as “actor” which was the worst possible thing a Roman could do. @robby_red @fidempor @SnappyIsSoHappy Permalink 6:01 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Justinian had to get a special permission to marry Theodora because she was actress & daughter of actress @fidempor @SnappyIsSoHappy Permalink 5:49 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@CristiVlad25 @nntaleb I made an animated review of Fooled by Randomness. hope you like it :)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rwy0LNAbPHs   Permalink 4:50 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Kapish is not from italian capisci but from the Kalabrez Kapish. Kapish? @BJ_Lancaster @bat8bat8 @SantiagoPombo Permalink 4:49 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Imbecile, a generalization is ALL not MOST or “usually”. Kapish?@SantiagoPombo Permalink 4:04 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Actors are usually not very bright people; they don’t know how to act like actors. Permalink 5:48 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Simple rule: When you see “conditional” in science, exclude all subsets that fail to meet the condition. @badral @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink 5:05 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Can’t believe doctors can be argumentative & fail to see the diff between conditional & unconditional probability @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink 4:50 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A picture is worth a thousand integrals. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/57RrjajhHi Permalink 2:30 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@talraviv Does Medium have a Mega-Recommend button? This by @nntaleb put words to a nagging feeling I’ve had since collegehttps://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52?source=twitterShare-a56d3125abb5-1488141667   Permalink 12:42 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Thanks @CutTheKnotMath for training the clarity of mathematical thinking. It is like weightlifting for the mind. pic.twitter.com/6ZQBtJ3Twn Permalink 11:57 AM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You want to send your kids to college so they come back intellectually stronger, not pre-bureaucrats. #Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/835870988696875010   Permalink 11:08 AM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Wittgenstein’s ruler (in Fooled by Randomness): Under some conditions the table will be measuring the ruler than the other way around.https://twitter.com/ArmandDAngour/status/835880838713786370   Permalink 9:13 AM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb .@DrHasanAlam @colorfulfool he is clueless doesn’t get your question in particular or controlled variable in general Permalink 1:44 PM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You visibly aren’t grasping the point.Substance may correlate w/style, but CONDITIONAL on same record removes correl @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink 10:46 AM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You didn’t understand the text. Read again & look up “conditional” (everything else equ). Then think. Then tweet. @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink 10:32 AM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A Saturday without mathematics is like Mediterranean food without garlic. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/8Rpl2EyHfN Permalink 9:33 AM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The paper on responses in biology, volatility in feeding. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf  https://twitter.com/MilenaRodban/status/835496327899398144   Permalink 7:33 AM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Given their track record, I would recommend hiring academic economists and do the OPPOSITE of what they advise. For they aren’t even random.https://twitter.com/nytimesbusiness/status/835225349378215936   Permalink 1:28 PM – 24 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Surgeons Should NotLook Like Surgeons”https://medium.com/p/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52   Permalink 6:52 AM – 24 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Interesting discussion around the speculation of link between lifespan hearbeats/breathing and Jensen’s inequality. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154633815058375   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/TOq0rNdfji”>  pic.twitter.com/TOq0rNdfji Permalink 5:01 AM – 24 Feb 2017

@nntaleb From: 1986 New Declassified CIA Memo Presents Blueprint for Syrian Regime Collapse https://www.libertarianinstitute.org/2017/02/cia-memo-scenarios-of-syrian-regime-collapse/   via @libertarianinst Permalink 3:43 AM – 24 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I made a deal with John Gray where I would stop writing nontechnical books and just promote his as they read as if I wrote them myself.https://twitter.com/kpo1978/status/834911263901745152   Permalink 4:24 PM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We can visualize the solution obtained via calculus (optimization). @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/DABxf8JaJP Permalink 3:49 PM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Me neitherhttps://twitter.com/TheRealNeilS/status/834805903924854784   Permalink 8:54 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @ianbremmer please take students and visa-immigrants (former students whi stayed) from sample and show us results. Permalink 8:29 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@normonics The Minority Rule. cc @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/mariawirth1/status/834718262369853440   Permalink 6:36 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friends, thanks for the votes. Here is the passage from Skin In the Game. Business Plans shd not look like Business Plans pic.twitter.com/c105qZNbOY Permalink 6:29 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Statistical BS: compare cohort to cohort. “Muslims” in US (Iranians & Leb Shiites, Indo-Pakistanis) don’t compare to Sunni Muslims outside.https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/834756931705266176   Permalink 5:48 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Precisely: as self-righteous imbeciles like Tatchell spreads fake numbers they become consensus @PeterTatchell @lecaester @GreenRupertRead Permalink 5:44 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds.”—Taleb pic.twitter.com/amj3lzhW0u Permalink 3:24 PM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Facts: 1) The press is free. 2) Media is acting as propaganda. Now explain analogies to Hitler/Fascism that don’t lead to reverse. #Idiots Permalink 1:44 PM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For those into stochastic volatility, a result (maybe for book with @DrCirillo) pic.twitter.com/cwl50EpBy6 Permalink 8:10 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, you mean the nonviolent AlQaeda? @PeterTatchell @Darius1296 @GreenRupertRead Permalink 7:52 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nobody represents more the intellectual fraud faking *doing good* as Kenneth Roth. Good news: Frauds get eventually terminally busted.https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/833755019971293187   Permalink 6:38 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The good news is that the 2nd order effect is the strongest summary, locally convex or concave 97% of info. @normonics @YanKan_ Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A deeper view of Antifragility:primacy of n-th order effects, all these (Asymmetry, convexity) are from nonlinearity=2nd+ deriv. @YanKan_ Permalink 6:29 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Libs can’t get #Antifragile as they think in 1st order. Exmpls: to themmin wage income; comfort health; variation stability; Permalink 6:00 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@sanjayk_13 @rhianna @nntaleb It’s not hyperbole, the trader most likely to blow up with a spectacular loss in the real world will win Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Also EPA colluded with Monsanto to cover up cancer datahttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/834151562008096768   Permalink 1:58 PM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Schools have “trading” competitions. W/o enough risk/skin in the game, incentive is to shoot for Probability not Exp. The WORST trader wins. Permalink 1:10 PM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb UN Ambassador Samantha Something & Obama’s State Dept conveyed and acted on fake news.https://twitter.com/gjoene/status/834094781655576576   Permalink 10:42 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Will give 2 lectures May 4 (& 5) in the NECSI program.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/834014527880585216   Permalink 6:46 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I can kapish uproar ag. one suggesting pedophilia. But where is the reaction ag. salafascist preachers who condone it? TwoFaced PseudoLibs! Permalink 6:32 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Worse: they defend, cover up for, even embrace Salafasism.https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/834035993955155968   Permalink 5:49 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb To teach someone a real skill, teach him how to take risk & fail. He will never learn this in school. No nonrisktaker can ever teach it. v 2 Permalink 5:43 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb If you want to teach someone a real skill, teach him how to fail. He will never learn it in school. Permalink 6:45 PM – 20 Feb 2017

@nntaleb My friend Peter @PeterJTanous managed to cross James Bond with a Catholic priest. A thriller. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/RVQYOQ0ZLNAT8/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=1504035119   Permalink 6:28 AM – 20 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mildly mistranslated: Greeks should be “Hellenes”, Hellenistic diaspora.https://twitter.com/ccavafy/status/833487269621268482   Permalink 5:08 AM – 20 Feb 2017