@nntaleb New version of my paper on power laws with stochastic exponent https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.02369 Permalink 5:14 PM – 4 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 2) Actually there is a heuristic, my days: “A good chess player makes a sharp trader. An excellent chess player makes a dumb trader.” Permalink 7:13 AM – 4 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Garry Boy @Kasparov63 I agree for removing Assad if you settle in Syria & deal w/effects. #SkinInTheGame #SecondOrderEffects #LudicFallacyhttps://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/848989093803552768 Permalink 6:58 AM – 4 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 2) As @ArmandDAngour can confirm, “Be antifragile or die” is “Vale” in Latin, means also “hello” or “goodbye” @goc9000 Permalink 6:01 AM – 4 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 2) And #SkinintheGame has not been even completed yet! Permalink 4:57 AM – 4 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Watching #SkinintheGame & #Antifragile leading to firm policy, the dismantlement of the Soviet-Harvard/Thaler-Sunstein IYI machinery in DC. pic.twitter.com/eqoKoh5sq9 Permalink 4:54 AM – 4 Apr 2017
@nntaleb “As Taleb says “become #Antifragile, or die””. I don’t recall said that but it’s good enough.https://twitter.com/andyben/status/849008384233918467 Permalink 3:32 AM – 4 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 3) Wrote inThe Black Swan (Narrative Fallacy chapter)how paranoid people could concoct the most elaborate narrative from minimum facts. Permalink 3:16 PM – 3 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 2) There is a vast logical gap between suspicion based on specific fact & accusation from ZERO information. Permalink 3:13 PM – 3 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Years of covering up lack of proof of safety of Glyphosate made the cases accumulate, and Monsanto more & more vulnerable. ByeBye Monsantohttps://twitter.com/GMOFreeUSA/status/849018447782707200 Permalink 3:07 PM – 3 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Not only is @Kasparov63 in extemely bad taste & insensitive to victims; but he needs psychiatric evaluation for paranoia/hallucinations.https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/848982714212634627 Permalink 12:48 PM – 3 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Antifragile = 2nd order effecthttps://twitter.com/adviceforbernie/status/848953979111452672 Permalink 11:01 AM – 3 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Current critique of IQ is that it doesn’t measure socio-emotional, dancing intelligence… Nonsense. IQ doesn’t capture 2nd order reasoning. Permalink 10:30 AM – 3 Apr 2017
@nntaleb He also protects Copts from the Salafis and the previous government who dhimmified them (treated them as 3rd rate citizens).https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/848940653308514304 Permalink 10:11 AM – 3 Apr 2017
@nntaleb When I see the NYT blame people who made their money BEFORE office, not AFTER office, I cringe. I cringe.https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 Permalink 9:59 AM – 3 Apr 2017
@MattheWrite Hey losers, as @nntaleb pointed out, it’s better they made their money BEFORE taking office than afterhttps://twitter.com/nytimes/status/848892884791287809 Permalink 9:36 AM – 3 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Academic measures of IQ are bogus (too 1st order) But one’s output on Russian conspiracy/Trump is an excellent measure of intelligence. #IYI Permalink 8:42 AM – 3 Apr 2017
@nntaleb They don’t speak Arabic, but (moderately) Arabized Aramaic. Note 164 http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/848856606288748546 Permalink 4:22 AM – 3 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Trying to read a paper. Which is LESS guilty of fake news (WMD-Iraq, Russo-showers), etc.? Ignore pol orientation, just record w/fake-news. Permalink 3:54 AM – 3 Apr 2017
@nntaleb This is BS: problem is not absence of causation, but spurious/accidental correlation (cherry picked), one that will not hold next 10 years.https://twitter.com/AmirSariaslan/status/848664012707549185 Permalink 3:34 PM – 2 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 6) Even coherence is loosely defined in decision theory: You are NOT incoherent if your preferences change when information not identical. Permalink 3:24 PM – 2 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 5) Antifragile: how intransitivity of preferences (Prefer A to B, B to C, C to A): randomization protects from depletion of resources Permalink 3:17 PM – 2 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 4) Word “rationality” is not Lindy Proof. It was born with probal/decision theory. Ancients had “wisdom”,”prudence”, sophrosyne, phronesis. Permalink 3:02 PM – 2 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 3) Many people misinterpret “rationality” in economic theory. It means just coherence. Permalink 2:59 PM – 2 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 2) If a cognitive “bias” is helpful, it is not a bias. There is NO theory of rationality that makes superstitions & religion irrational. Permalink 2:58 PM – 2 Apr 2017
@nntaleb 1)Result from 3 d discussing rationality in Bielefeld: no theory of rationality cares about decisions, only consequences Gigerenzer, Binmore pic.twitter.com/Hpf2yJiPYw Permalink 2:55 PM – 2 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Brilliant and ruthlessly impeccable logic: @DineshDSouza explaining #skininthegame to a “leftist” student at Amherst.https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/848577884931235840 Permalink 10:11 AM – 2 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Government shouldn’t be into dietary guidelines. Once they get a mistake in (as with carbs, HF corn sugar & salt), they cannot get it out. Permalink 8:33 AM – 2 Apr 2017
@SantiagoAuFund When follow supposedly deep thinkers on twitter & all they discuss is 1st level Russia Trump thinking u come to embrace @nntaleb IYI mantra. Permalink 7:03 PM – 1 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Now we pathologize success in America? Wealth BEFORE gov. much better than AFTER. Imbecile journos http://nbcnews.to/2ojMknA via @nbcnews Permalink 3:30 PM – 1 Apr 2017
@nntaleb .@ArmandDAngour Suis la elle te fuit Fuis la elle te suit (Version moderne) Permalink 10:02 AM – 1 Apr 2017
@zaoyang If you’re using more than two reasons in a pro and con column you are likely trying to convince yourself. Via @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/y9G8HTDvgw Permalink 8:28 AM – 1 Apr 2017
@nntaleb (Cont) pic.twitter.com/iG3csbYaFJ Permalink 5:57 AM – 1 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Fat Tony vs Socrates, a Platonic dialogue pic.twitter.com/XipZZtaJZr Permalink 5:57 AM – 1 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Fat Tony debates Socrates in Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/__aesthete__/status/848001162217259008 Permalink 2:51 AM – 1 Apr 2017
@nntaleb Another problem with economists: their sense of humor is so… economist; you get what I mean.https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/847930504448020484 Permalink 4:25 PM – 31 Mar 2017
@nntaleb .@nntaleb (testing) It is like drama that amplifies through transmission. Permalink 4:20 PM – 31 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Number of war casualties tends to drift upwards w/o information, bias coming from pple afraid to err on downside. Same as inflation.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/847507095414906880 Permalink 1:45 PM – 31 Mar 2017
@ClimateAudit Bronze Age Hittites were Indo-European. In Iron Age, descendant neo-Hittites localized in north Syria, SE Turkey. IE attributes unsurprising pic.twitter.com/ZsaF19PuXK Permalink 1:38 PM – 31 Mar 2017
@nntaleb From @PZalloua’s genetic evidence, story emerges Assyrians & Phoenicians were “Indo-Europeans” w/Semitic lang (but not Babylnns/Chaldeans). Permalink 1:21 PM – 31 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Western Syrians (Lattaqia->Homs) are actually cross betw Greeks & Anatolians, related to Kurds, w/less Semitic J1 than other parts of Med.https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/847899807305711616 Permalink 1:17 PM – 31 Mar 2017
@nntaleb One proof a day keeps the philosophasters away. pic.twitter.com/GyrNuvJPZp Permalink 10:06 AM – 31 Mar 2017
@nntaleb An example of news is fake, and facts are false Washington Post Botches The Bible, Lies About Lawmaker’s Bible Quotehttp://thefederalist.com/2017/03/31/washington-post-lies-about-lawmakers-biblical-reference-then-refuses-to-quote-him/#.WN5_yLt3uPM.twitter Permalink 9:12 AM – 31 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Fake experts, s.a. economists & political “scientists”, genuinely believe that when they are wrong, they are wrong in very smart ways. Permalink 8:27 AM – 31 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Statistics works better when seen as a branch of logic.https://twitter.com/philipbstark/status/847722147103481856 Permalink 3:44 AM – 31 Mar 2017
@nntaleb “Experts don’t mind being told they are wrong, provided they are shown to be wrong for complex reasons.” Bielefeld Festschrift, Ken Bilmore. Permalink 2:55 AM – 31 Mar 2017
@nntaleb One reason we think the past was more violent than reality is because historians like to discuss wars, not peace. Permalink 10:53 AM – 30 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 10) EPILOG, part 1 Nobody noticed that the mere fact of taking the fellow’s picture means he will refrain in future?https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49 Permalink 5:52 AM – 30 Mar 2017
@nntaleb I just published “Why Each One Should Eat His Own Turtles: Equality in Uncertainty”https://medium.com/p/why-each-one-should-eat-his-own-turtles-equality-in-uncertainty-e2b2ee3bcddf Permalink 5:17 AM – 30 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 9) footnote: If you are outraged by a behavior, never tolerate IYIs who reduce such things to personal fights. Outrage has a social purpose. Permalink 5:44 PM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 8) Some precedent & philosophical background. We live in large anonymous communities, brought back to natural conditions by the web. pic.twitter.com/PuuviNrFXS Permalink 3:16 PM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb “Inside the Academic Journal That Corporations Love” by @PacificStandhttps://psmag.com/inside-the-academic-journal-that-corporations-love-a1dbe48cca1c Permalink 2:29 PM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 7) So the idea is to find the moral balance between not exposing him & exposing him, like type 1 and 2 errors in statistics. Permalink 2:26 PM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Great point. Symmetry (skin in the game) means you accept to be equally penalized if you committed the same violation @JosephJayMFG Permalink 2:04 PM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 6) On the other hand there is a moral obligation to protect weak people riding home after a long day from assholes like him. Permalink 1:45 PM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 5) The only moral problem I have to clarify: he didn’t know who I was, the # of followers, that he could be identified & mobbed & shamed. Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 4) When I threatened to take his photo he said: “go ahead”. Permalink 1:38 PM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb 3) When I asked him to be quiet “& considerate” for the sake of the rest of passengers he said it was “not forbidden” to use cell. Permalink 1:36 PM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb More info: 1)He was chatting for 30min, no emergency 2) People who use cell phones usually go to the side by the exit door & are brief. Permalink 1:34 PM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb There is an inconsiderate man on Metro North is loud on his cell phone in some Scandinavian language & refuses to stop. Took photo. Permalink 1:12 PM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb The difference between private and public is a matter of scale as much as it is a matter of incentive. Permalink 1:02 PM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Back to New York: Lindy Effect. pic.twitter.com/BBVw4WBtJF Permalink 9:08 AM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Except for categorical imperatives @primalpoly Permalink 7:53 AM – 29 Mar 2017
@HasHafidh A thread on understanding why “Islamic” extremism’s biggest problem isn’t with the West or even Israel, but rather with Muslim minorities.https://twitter.com/hashafidh/status/749944340848443392 Permalink 7:31 AM – 29 Mar 2017
@Isikoff KSA has “targeted U.S. veterans through a campaign of deception,” says letter to DOJ from 9/11 families.https://www.yahoo.com/news/911-families-seek-justice-department-probe-of-saudi-lobbying-that-enlisted-u-s-veterans-130740119.html Permalink 6:37 AM – 29 Mar 2017
@sustain05 Convexity effects of rereading ~ via @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/uYGysO6tfP Permalink 6:26 AM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Genius is the side effect of madness, rather than the reverse. Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Mar 2017
@nntaleb No Saudi and Qatari propaganda, CNN ignores them.https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/846808864624447488 Permalink 12:41 PM – 28 Mar 2017
@nntaleb My final tweet for #IRMA2017. I thank Indian friends for the warm hospitality and their appetite for rigor in risk management. pic.twitter.com/4vGu7fprGr Permalink 6:59 AM – 28 Mar 2017
@nntaleb Du Jour #SkinintheGame συγκινδυνεύω= to share danger together. In Plato, thanks to @faleflix. Found in Lucian’s Ass. Latin: simul pericleo? pic.twitter.com/zu5YPtwGUF Permalink 4:34 AM – 28 Mar 2017