GMOs, Brexit, Brussels Elite, ANTIFRAGILE, Overregulation, Syria, NonStable Power Laws, Kasperov, Life Expectancy, YouGov, IYI | Twitter

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@nntaleb The average signatory’s Nobel y: 1997. Av. age at prize:~62. These are in their 80s, many 30-50y behind cutting edgehttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/748939971583741955   Permalink 3:33 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@food_democracy Breaking Let Freedom Ring! Vermont’s 1st in the Nation GMO Labeling bill has just gone into effect! Thanks Vermont!pic.twitter.com/KFnMWo1u1i Permalink 9:04 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Syrian rebels call themselves Mujaheddin. Stop the BS, call them by what they are. And learn Arabic.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/748988061426544640   Permalink 2:55 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Not always. Only if economist/journo AND BS vendor like @Noahpinionhttps://twitter.com/rneppalli/status/748971060641533953   Permalink 1:20 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@brunoboni Nero di seppia con bottarga #nerodiseppia @nntalebpic.twitter.com/RLkRCqMiKw Permalink 11:28 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 107 Nobel winners ag Golden Rice, aged pple who did their work before complexity theory… https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153946452908375  pic.twitter.com/6Ic2z7nJg2 Permalink 11:02 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb It was not Elinor Ostrom who said “give us our fishing waters back”;it was Nigel Farrage. Time for bureaucrats to learn complexity/localism Permalink 10:20 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Philip as the UberStatistician & a fierless leader you should join us in an expanded project on GMOs http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   @philipbstark Permalink 9:42 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I will never discuss a friend in public no matter the situation. Only in private. Even with ex- friends @philipbstark Permalink 8:43 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The EU, something built 1950s-style, without understanding of complex systems.http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/685286/EU-referendum-Brexit-Black-Swan-Nassim-Taleb-Brussels-elite?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+daily-express-news-showbiz+%28Daily+Express+%3A%3A+News+%2F+Showbiz+Feed%29   Permalink 6:45 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Find the inconsistency, or how “average” probability isn’t a robust construct. [Quiz abt empty suit @JustinWolfers]pic.twitter.com/dd2dYsJu4Y Permalink 6:09 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Noboby noticed: only “Nobel” of 107 who “knows” abt risk is Robert Merton who blew up w/ LTCM “1 in trillion” risk.https://twitter.com/BioSRP/status/748858953937846273   Permalink 6:01 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Announcement: RWRI-3 Real World Risk fall workshop date has been changed to Oct 3-7 [We found great quarters in NYC] http://realworldrisk.com   Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb Jensen’s inequality and sensitivity to variance in plantshttps://twitter.com/CurrentBiology/status/748604696739340288   Permalink 5:05 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Thought they were desperate to add a nobel in literature but…they added Robert Merton, Mr LTCM. Guaranteed Blowup!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/748525227852849153   Permalink 4:53 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Donald Trump via trial and error looking for what people want. Know your customer rule.http://cnb.cx/29bzpMM   Permalink 2:11 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Voters tired of an elite that can’t find coconuts on Coconut Islandhttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000530650   Permalink 2:06 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Indeed: variance helps them! @Chris_arnade Permalink 2:02 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Alternative Test: what’s is the probability that @JustinWolfers a representayive member of the IYI class deadlifts? Permalink 8:39 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The only empirical association between Risk/Safety & Nobel Prize is LTCM. Try again, hire a more informed PR firm.https://twitter.com/MichaelRStrain/status/748319864595439616   Permalink 7:34 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Turned out Pinker’s words & references do not match. Asking him for backup, not words. 800 page thesis … no backuppic.twitter.com/kKRb0U6fwk Permalink 7:11 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Impressive: saw that Silver Rule (#Skininthegame) ⇔decision-making under incompleteness. He is MD &Deadlifts>600lbs!https://twitter.com/MDiPaolaMD/status/748493696052629504   Permalink 5:53 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Nassim Taleb Slams The World’s “Intellectual-Yet-Idiot” Class | Zero Hedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-26/nassim-taleb-slams-worlds-intellectual-yet-idiot-class   Permalink 5:39 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 3 millennia of *wisdom=action under incomplete information* from King Solomon to Popper to Simon undid by that idiothttps://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/748157273789300736   Permalink 4:57 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finally completed my ANTIFRAGILE application to Medicine. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf   Permalink 4:52 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Phil forgot 1 Nobel prize for literature. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/748471063521169408   Permalink 4:51 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@hamlet911 If you can piss off econs, IYIs, academia and most of the twitterverse – all at the same time, you are pretty much right. Kudos @nntaleb Permalink 6:37 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb “If a tractor used on a farm has a windshield, its wipers must have a speed of 25 cycles per minute.” Brussels…pic.twitter.com/a8Ywc63eka Permalink 6:49 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The envious will perceive you as always arrogant.https://twitter.com/ban_kanj/status/748328386343354368   Permalink 6:34 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Overregulation by EU:length of a banana, volume per toilet flush, speed of agricultural tractor’s windshield wipers https://www.contribuables.org/2014/05/europe-trop-de-normes-pas-assez-de-liberte/   Permalink 6:28 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb It takes 16 times longer to incorporate and run a bizness in Milan than Londra @Twitpiero Permalink 2:21 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Move a German to Paris or a French person to Frkfrt. No way. Both would move to LDN.https://twitter.com/fartelengelbert/status/748252528685518848   Permalink 1:34 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Another, #NonfakeRationalia, w/no BS vendors like Tyson: based on orthodox statistics & presence-absence of evidencehttps://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/748157273789300736   Permalink 1:18 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb From my experience, London is attractive for banks as it has labor laws similar to US/pool of talent. Paris and Frankfurt tried & failed. Permalink 1:14 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Economist @JustinWolfers strikes me as the type w/no math, no erudition & no skin-in-the game. Does he deadlift? Permalink 12:11 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@mikeharrisNY @nntaleb @AdroitInvestor @econbuttonwood Chart updated. Woa.#brexit looks like a non-event. Thanks prof.pic.twitter.com/3tA9d4wOyK Permalink 10:25 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb #skininthegame: Unless one has P/L it is hard to assess the “significance” of a move. Journos/Tawkers can’t get it!https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/748203429843996673   Permalink 10:19 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb GBP/USD 1year deviation is within significance band: nothing reflects such “gravity” of an event. Kapish? @AdroitInvestor @econbuttonwood Permalink 10:13 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb UK stocks up from #Brexit vote. Ignore any word written by a journo except for street crime reporters.pic.twitter.com/GO55oGidAM Permalink 9:53 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb From reading his work, Mr Wolfers has *some* challenges with probability theory. More, later. @jimmyybill @JustinWolfers Permalink 7:35 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb A more advanced class is based on my book SILENT RISK and the papers here http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html   Permalink 6:58 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb BTW this is my syllabus for the introductory class (7 lectures) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Lecture%20Syllabus.pdf   Permalink 6:53 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb My first lecture: this is the clueless way to look at data. Histograms don’t give information for fattails.https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/747839522965098496   Permalink 6:37 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb No, the Pound move was not a Black Swan, & not a statistical outlier.pic.twitter.com/7mwey4GGRi Permalink 6:17 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Simplicity and skin in the game: Those who tawk propose more complicated models than those who do. http://www.nasdaq.com/article/nassim-taleb-on-simplicity-and-skin-in-the-game-cm642323   Permalink 2:20 PM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Minority rule in action http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf  https://twitter.com/NonGMOProject/status/747898686852608001   Permalink 2:06 PM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb European Union, definition: Something designed by someone who doesn’t understand complex systems. Permalink 9:10 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@GMWatch URGENT: Act Now to Save #GMO Labeling, Before It’s Too Late! https://action.organicconsumers.org/o/50865/p/dia/action3/common/public/?action_KEY=18302&track=moFRN&tag=FRN#sthash.aPx1sX5D.dpuf  pic.twitter.com/QtRvlAPqcB Permalink 8:59 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Does not deadlift. (@MDiPaolaMD)https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/747616032928464900   Permalink 8:55 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@BogeJan @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam Balkanisation is failed centralization. Helvetization is successful decentralization Permalink 7:07 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People say “Balkanization”, why not”Helvetization”? @yaneerbaryam has ideas for Syria http://necsi.edu/research/social/peace_PLoS_f.pdf  https://twitter.com/aNatureTech/status/747790776353067010   Permalink 6:59 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Stop bloodshe! Only solution for Syria is partition. Fences make better neighbors. Or strong decentralization.https://twitter.com/bitgit/status/747781027502915584   Permalink 6:22 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb An illustration of the ludic fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludic_fallacy   (People who derive reputation/authority from games…)pic.twitter.com/CvnuQGm4qd Permalink 6:11 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Before theorizing abt Assad, have skin in the game & live w/rebels. Those you support would behead you @Kasparov63http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36637378   Permalink 5:51 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I have to *write* the paper! @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 3:48 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Grandmaster Marco Avellaneda @MAvellaneda55 is giving a flash talk in 15 min. He was last seen in Mexico. Permalink 3:05 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@KeaneBhatt Protesters of US ‘inaction’ in Syria should re-read two paragraphs, written in present-tense http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/world/middleeast/cia-arms-for-syrian-rebels-supplied-black-market-officials-say.html  pic.twitter.com/D7YVMYKCCW Permalink 12:44 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I have seen the two @silva and @stevehiltonx tease one another: Interesting pair.http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/if-rohan-silva-can-hug-brexit-campaigner-steve-hilton-theres-hope-for-us-all-a3281781.html   Permalink 2:03 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb New Version of today’s flash talk: Behavior of Sums of NonStable Power Laws. Convergence < Sqrt[log(log(n))) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BBGJune2016.pptx.pdf   Permalink 11:32 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You should go live in Lybia when making comments like these. I live 20 m from Syria & don’t need Black-Swan blind neocons BS @Kasparov63 Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Even more bullshit. In real life, as in chess, a move has consequence and you study consequences before moving. Kapish? @Kasparov63 Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You are spouting neocon Bullshit, theorizing from afar. I was not happy with Gadafi/Saddam, but I am less happy with AlQaeda @Kasparov63 Permalink 8:03 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You want to turn Syria (hence Lebanon) into Iraq/Lybia just to spite Putin? Kill minorities for “geopolitical” BS?https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/747440635381092353   Permalink 7:48 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Presenting a flash talk tonite: Behavior of Sum of NonStable Power Laws http://go.bloomberg.com/promo/invite/bloomberg-quant-seminar-series-5/   My paper: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BBGJune2016.pptx.pdf   Permalink 6:23 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@vtrighttoknow Thank you @SenSanders. We need more leaders like you!https://twitter.com/CFSTrueFood/status/746421448340811776   Permalink 6:26 PM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy. Permalink 10:57 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@GadSaad There you go. NNT forgot to mention that the Leave voters will all “xenophobic, hateful, illiterate racists.”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/747116746843295744   Permalink 10:20 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb When people vote the way of the IYI elite, it is “democracy”. Otherwise it is misguided, irrational, swayed by populism & lack of education. Permalink 10:18 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb These imbeciles pathologizing people who did not vote the way the IYI (Intellectual-Yet-Idiots) elite wants them to. https://twitter.com/healthpsycenter/status/747100256001630208   Permalink 9:28 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finance based medicinehttps://twitter.com/HeatherM211/status/745562147715874816   Permalink 3:33 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The IYI class: Intellectual-Yet-Idiot Doesn’t deadlift & is scared that #Brexit started a revolution by the unwashedpic.twitter.com/26YykU2kx0 Permalink 6:35 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Intellectual Yet Idiot; Semierudite Bureaucrat;Normative;Pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand.https://twitter.com/mapale77/status/746865636211556352   Permalink 5:46 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 4 y ago, I resolved to do math >90m/day. I stuck to it, diligently, except for Jun 24, 2016 w/news of stage 1 of anti-IYI revolution #Brexit Permalink 5:37 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@lukasnaugle “Friendship that ends was never one; there was at least one sucker in it.” @nntalebpic.twitter.com/uVZVA6bs1h Permalink 5:28 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb To understand conditional life expect, see Social Security Admin: total expect increases with age. #rigorisneeded https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html   Permalink 5:09 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Also YouGov’s numbers about the youth mean turnout bias: the main info is youth don’t care.https://twitter.com/mylifemysay/status/746740337331343360   Permalink 9:52 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Where the term “Intellectual Yet Imbecile” is born to describe a journo-bureaucrat – read a lot but not enough. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153932393103375   Permalink 9:35 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In Antifragile: problem of some IYT intellectual-yet-imbecile in Brussels trying to make measures”rational” #Brexitpic.twitter.com/UUKnslcl6T Permalink 9:04 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@republicofmath My take on @nntaleb: just because we have skewed data doesn’t mean we should engage in skewed thinkingpic.twitter.com/ZzpQ0WnIFA Permalink 8:34 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Math: E[X|X>K2] >=E[X|X>K1] for all K2>K1 @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 8:18 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Under ANY unimodal distribution, life expectancy increases BY MORE than 1 year for every surviving year. @MAvellaneda55 @EloyGamaS Permalink 8:13 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb If uncond. life expectancy is 80 & you are already 80, your life expectancy is ~+9 y. If you are 100, it is ~+2y @MAvellaneda55 @EloyGamaS Permalink 8:11 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Life expectancy (remaining years to live) increases with age. @EloyGamaS @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 8:05 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 simply if your life expectancy is 89 and you are 95, they thing you have -7 years to go! YouGov is ridiculously incompetent. Permalink 8:04 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb BSduJour: YouGov is incompetent in polling & missed Brexit by 6 pts; here:confused life expectancy w/conditional exphttps://twitter.com/tancredipalmeri/status/746115846624403457   Permalink 8:03 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Antikirilganlik! Güzel bir sürpriz Türkçe bulmak için. Ve güzel bir yol Türkçe kelimeleri öğrenmek için.pic.twitter.com/YbU64GYXN3 Permalink 5:54 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic from #RWRI: have cash in bills on you or in in a stash next to you.https://twitter.com/dermot_lyons/status/746519787694489600   Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I asked: “Who are your natural partners, people from India or those from Poland?” Brexit is giving us an answer.https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/746665738014986240   Permalink 4:54 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People listen to “intellectual class” abt Brexit but for 70 y they’ve been wrong on anything: Stalinism, Maoism, Freudianism,Urban planning Permalink 11:54 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People are brainwashed to think that Levantine derives from Arabic. Some influence, that’s all. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm   @alielyassir Permalink 11:19 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb At the lunch table #riskmathics in Mexico City, 4/9 persons were of Lebanese origin. Permalink 8:49 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In one word: pollers are incompetent -and those who pay attention even more so. It is a bias-variance problem.https://twitter.com/pauld1981/status/746366393226977284   Permalink 8:44 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb It seems impossible for people to talk about markets w/o BS unless one is a trader/investor, with #skininthegame .https://twitter.com/harris4491/status/746350655418281984   Permalink 7:37 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb So the GBP is about were it was in February. Too many people talk about markets …pic.twitter.com/8OS505NhA3 Permalink 7:28 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@SenSanders I am going to do everything I can to defeat this GMO labeling legislation, which preempts Vermont’s law.http://1.usa.gov/28QN4pQ   Permalink 2:17 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb From 2012; NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: ‘The European Union Is A Horrible, Stupid Project’http://read.bi/RiSRHT   Permalink 4:26 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Today, the United States have acquired 4 new shadow states: England, London (sic), Wales, and possibly Scotland. Permalink 4:20 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Brookings needs to be… diminished, purged, and debullshitvendorified @MaxAbrahms Permalink 9:58 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Whatever legal disclaimer: I own gold in some forms. Permalink 9:56 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Gold! In any form. Permalink 9:52 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Brexit results after a lot of Mexican wine.pic.twitter.com/l4GA2UsWYv Permalink 8:10 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Voila the problem on airplane solved by the master in higher dimensions!https://twitter.com/MAvellaneda55/status/745963733093015552   Permalink 2:42 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@ProbFact “Modernity corresponds to the systematic extraction of humans from their randomness-laden ecology.” — @nntaleb http://bit.ly/28UC0ea   Permalink 9:45 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb BTW I am long some GBP so I can talk about markets tonite to satistfy #Skininthegame @will_moriarty Permalink 9:36 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Does it include control by Norwegian universities that *during the same period* did not take a cut? #causalityishardhttps://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/739852044010434560   Permalink 9:34 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In Mexico,debate w/Rob Engel & Ed Altman on Brexit effects.There no scheduled volatility, Prices SCORN ideas/clichéspic.twitter.com/NnW7YRWYcK Permalink 8:54 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@ScottAdamsSays @AG2Pearl @fireclan55 If you understood business, you’d know counting the failures is a fool’s analysis. I have about 30, and I’m rich. Permalink 6:35 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Also note that the semi-intellectual empty suits tend to engage in entry-level scientism with promotion of GMOshttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/715862574059937793   Permalink 5:12 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You are not getting expert pbm. Grandmother’s jdgmnt doesn’t mean she is a Dr, only how to trust a doctor and for what gravity. @trombosit Permalink 5:04 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Bjorn Lomborg is by any metric a charlatan. The fact that bureaucrats don’t like him doesn’t make him scientific. @NickdeCusa Permalink 4:26 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Reminder: the crowds are now rebelling against empty suits & “intellectuals” https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153658794008375  pic.twitter.com/wdCTVcfNWT Permalink 4:20 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@MAvellaneda55 Made it to Mexico with @nntaleb discussing probability #brexit & #mathematics. On to #riskmathics conference!pic.twitter.com/ZxZz5pDUIe Permalink 1:21 PM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Yes! If th ~ Uniform[0,Pi], Tan[th]~ Cauchy & if radius from center random, still Cauchy as Sum of Cauchy = Cauchy @asknbid @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Quiz given by @MAvellaneda55. A drunk person throws balls randomly in all directions. What is the proba distrib of the distance betw balls? Permalink 10:25 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Betting odds are demonstrably similar to option implied probabilities, except unhedgeable (no underlying).https://twitter.com/MAvellaneda55/status/745659184956465152   Permalink 9:53 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb On plane Prof Marco @MAvellaneda55 agrees with derivations showing betting 1/x has tail. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/LongShot.nb.pdf   Permalink 9:42 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@lukasnaugle “If you know, in the morning, what your day looks like with any precision, you are a little bit dead…” @nntalebpic.twitter.com/xTPzcjImNf Permalink 5:28 PM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Marco my math mentor/th advisor for 22.5 years adjusting probabilities for Dutch Book effect. Neat!https://twitter.com/mavellaneda55/status/745591147251240960   Permalink 5:19 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 In other words Egyptian scribes had been using Semitic languages, incl Aramaic as lingua franca for 2000 years before the Arab invasion. Permalink 4:46 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du jour: Egyptian use of Semitic lang. predates the Achaemenid inv, The Amarna letters were in Akkadian.( Aramaic in Egypt dialect.) Permalink 4:45 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I can’t see any backing to the idea: Brexit => Economy will tank It’s by the same economists who wouldn’t find sand in Saudi Arabia. Permalink 2:24 PM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Where I explain that “large” projects rarely start as “large” projects, but fractally grown https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153701042473375   Permalink 5:23 AM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Voila! Organic funding is the way: VCs are about cosmetic businesses to sell to the greater fool.https://twitter.com/stephenfleming/status/745225288720711681   Permalink 5:03 AM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb A general question. Is is true that tears in rotator cuff “never” fully self repair? Lit is not clear on that; @cdipaola62 @DataScienceDork Permalink 3:13 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@StopponiMario @nntaleb in Italy the change is happening bottom-up as you said, cities independent from central gov as Renaissancepic.twitter.com/d7ihNEAvBL Permalink 2:53 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb For comments, my first scientific article in Medicine; on Convex responses and Antifragility. Almost done. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf   Permalink 1:21 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Birth of superstate: Frederick Forsyth on how UNELECTED Brussels bureaucrats SEIZED powerhttp://shr.gs/GNd7LlN   Permalink 1:16 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb No, I do not lecture in Saudi Arabia, & those lecturing there are academics-for-purchase.pic.twitter.com/7IV46YGVFx Permalink 5:20 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb It is easy to find out the Monsanto shills: people who defend BOTH glyphosate and GMOs & attack glysphokeptics.https://twitter.com/philipbstark/status/744858609671090177   Permalink 4:47 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Read the NYTimes after long time (jetlag): can detect that newsmedia are afraid of their readers. When I write I don’t care abt readers. Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Byzantine mass in a small church in my ancestral village: Greco-Arabic @byzantinepowerpic.twitter.com/BYRNQ0lqQz Permalink 2:59 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Our paper on violence translated for nonstatisticians http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/violencenobelsymposium.pdf   @QuarrelAU Permalink 8:25 AM – 19 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The Nobel Symposium: 3 full days. We stopped discussing Pinker’s thesis as dismissed after 1st session.pic.twitter.com/03m9mUyNQq Permalink 8:06 AM – 19 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic root for Levantine du jour: Shl7 شلح comes from SHLH: undress, now fleece (-> Tshli7, Shla7 tyebak…)pic.twitter.com/zsICwu92WQ Permalink 3:05 AM – 19 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Trying to explain the Mediterranean temperament to Slavs: Meds know how to have fun without necessarily getting drunk. Permalink 11:33 AM – 18 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In their private lives, some people seek union, others seek frequent intersection. Permalink 4:54 AM – 18 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Here it is https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf  https://twitter.com/DataScienceDork/status/743991476594610176   Permalink 2:28 AM – 18 Jun 2016

@nntaleb .@PeterCorless @EHSANI22 We have evidence that many of these civilians were killed by Islamists, pictures financed by Saudi PR firms. Permalink 8:18 AM – 17 Jun 2016

@EHSANI22 When you read think tankers arguing for removing Assad by force or bombing syria, ask them who funds their operations and salaries. Permalink 7:33 AM – 17 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The only way one can measure intertemporal inequality is within SAME cohort. Brookings ignorant BSvendors.https://twitter.com/EconTalker/status/743476144813522944   Permalink 9:23 AM – 16 Jun 2016

@nntaleb History is periods of peace punctuated by war rather than periods of war puctuated by peace. (Bergen Symposium) Permalink 5:58 AM – 16 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Wrong! P of .05 values don’t work… https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf  https://twitter.com/AcademicsSay/status/743413767904559104   Permalink 5:22 AM – 16 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Western Norway: mountainous, craggy, pristine, like Switzerland without the Swiss. Presenting paper on violence.pic.twitter.com/qMJiLB8AVN Permalink 6:23 PM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Trump doesn’t put his name on steaks for the money, rather for the ego. @AdamB1438 @John_Hempton @realmarkcuban Permalink 7:17 AM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Area for the exception. Thrilling to visualize inequalities in higher dimensions. @alxpr1c3 @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/gCgvAVZ0mk Permalink 7:16 AM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Talking class paternalists don’t get it: Only way to hurt Trump is to show him crying while reading Anna Kareninahttps://twitter.com/naomiaklein/status/742746821718618112   Permalink 5:06 AM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Comments like these by the “intellectual class” will get TheDonaldo elected.https://twitter.com/naomiaklein/status/742746821718618112   Permalink 5:27 PM – 14 Jun 2016

@nntaleb How many years of consecutive “peace” in a random Poisson process? Methodology. @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/jxY77d4ost Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finalmente, 4 years after antifragile, the discourse is improving!https://twitter.com/emanuelderman/status/742723822378438656   Permalink 12:11 PM – 14 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Most humans either harm or are harmed by words. The rest is a small minority. Permalink 12:05 PM – 14 Jun 2016

Saudi Barbarian, Syriac-Aramaic, Gawker, Minority Rule, RIP Mohammed Ali, Amioun, Omidyar, Peter Thiel | Twitter

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@nntaleb In a Saudi Barbarian air lounge (no food as they would poison me): C prince to discuss killing minorities in Syria.pic.twitter.com/f39LmMAJ6Z Permalink 5:36 PM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Press has conflict of interest w/public. NYT eulogy Gawker’s General Counsel when it is a Scum job in Scum company.http://nyti.ms/1UuDzvS   Permalink 5:15 PM – 13 Jun 2016

@Tubbyturkey Wrote in big letters on my office wall: “Statistics: failure to reject null hypothesis” @nntaleb #asymmetry #RWRI Permalink 3:32 PM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People who get married many times do so because they like the transaction more than the state (& don’t understand their own preferences). Permalink 1:09 PM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I realize that people who get married often do so because they like the transaction more than the state. Permalink 12:40 PM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Is this reaaaaaaaaally true?https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/742415639982313472   Permalink 11:12 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@burtkanez I was pro-GMO ’til I read the precautionary principle by @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/715862574059937793   Permalink 9:39 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Petition for Syriac-Aramaic on Google Translate https://www.change.org/p/google-syriac-in-google-translate?recruiter=556330952&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=whatsapp  \ Permalink 6:58 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Other words like zbl (garbage) also in Greek σκύβαλα Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Some Syriac words like “zinnar” also exist in Greek, ζώνη, unclear which way influence went. Permalink 5:42 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb When we look at the letter “zayin” it is even more striking how much more Aramaic our language is.pic.twitter.com/O65Js0fGEi Permalink 5:40 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@nntaleb More evidence that Levantine has Aramaic roots: 2500 words in our vocabulary.pic.twitter.com/yaIIiFAetb Permalink 4:50 AM – 13 Jun 2016

@JohnCleese Do please read Taleb and Tetlock on people’s forecasting abilities. You might become a little less sure of yourselfhttps://twitter.com/ConorFurlong/status/741970306424811520   Permalink 1:28 PM – 12 Jun 2016

@mimisheraton Followers please also follow me at http://thedailybeast.com   where I am now a columnist. Search “Kale” then “Why I Am Not A Locavore” Permalink 11:05 AM – 12 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Randomness does not look random: how to not be fooled by historical “trends” @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/KZgsN7wKkU Permalink 5:15 AM – 12 Jun 2016

@ashokatluri Intense, exhilarating and a very rewarding 5-day session on risk management by @nntaleb, R Douady and @financequant http://realworldrisk.com   Permalink 4:50 PM – 11 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The central information abt people: what is the worse thing they’ve done in their lives. #RWRI Extreme Value Theory Permalink 3:49 PM – 11 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Dopo @sothisispietro @ashokatluri No more squid ink!pic.twitter.com/P79HxgBP1C Permalink 11:19 AM – 11 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Squid ink with @sothisispietro and @ashokatluri recovering from week long seminar.pic.twitter.com/yyT7sNcJJL Permalink 11:00 AM – 11 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Tighten the band to 7<= f <= Sqrt(51)? @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/FOvqHtf3eq Permalink 8:13 AM – 11 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Anyone who associates Gawker with freedom of expression is a fraud.https://twitter.com/WIRED/status/741433548708687873   Permalink 5:57 PM – 10 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Trying to translate Procrustes into Levantinepic.twitter.com/ZmOesEz9IL Permalink 7:24 AM – 10 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Decentralization is the nightmare of lobbyists.https://twitter.com/scruton_quotes/status/741261080261988352   Permalink 6:34 AM – 10 Jun 2016

@cfshoo “Weak men act to satisfy their needs, stronger men their duties.” @nntaleb Permalink 3:59 AM – 10 Jun 2016

@Frank_S_David “If I had to relive my life I’d be even more stubborn & uncompromising.”- @nntaleb, via @farnamstreethttps://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2016/06/nassim-talebs-life-advice/   Permalink 3:44 PM – 9 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Day 4 RWRI. Raphael showing funds that blew up in the 2008 crisis had the highest Sharpe ratio. Most brilliant!pic.twitter.com/xJQJ72XRNY Permalink 1:22 PM – 9 Jun 2016

@nntaleb “I will retake every inch”, translated from Classical Arabic into English, means “Let’s talk and settle”.https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/740953136077111296   Permalink 10:10 AM – 9 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Colquhoun is the one who incited web-social media mob in the Tim Hunt affair. A despicable man.https://twitter.com/raphaels7/status/740827882243674112   Permalink 4:05 AM – 9 Jun 2016

@nntaleb RWRI Day 3 Robert Frey @financequant explaining cellular automata with high praise for @stephen_wolframpic.twitter.com/jNALz5hwWD Permalink 12:56 PM – 8 Jun 2016

@nntaleb RWRI day 3 Aaron classifying tail models and time dependence.pic.twitter.com/BRbSRl9g8I Permalink 12:31 PM – 8 Jun 2016

@DrCirillo According to @sapinker, @nntaleb and I have not read his “The Better Angels of Our Nature”. Unfortunately we did, and that’s the problem. Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Our next seminar is the advanced quant one, Aug 15-19, Stony Brook http://realworldrisk.com/advanced_mini-certificate_in_risk   The present one (reg) is full >60 pple Permalink 8:31 AM – 8 Jun 2016

@nntaleb “You don’t build a house based on a weather report”, Robert Frey @financequant Third day of http://Realworldrisk.com  pic.twitter.com/l58jQHHuSe Permalink 8:26 AM – 8 Jun 2016

@nntaleb How Pinker treats data.pic.twitter.com/cRcL8xy0fw Permalink 4:37 AM – 8 Jun 2016

@ninarosenwald A #Turkish professor was just suspended. His heinous crime? Tweeting critically about the conquest of Constantinople http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8213/turkish-professor-suspended-over-tweet   Permalink 4:33 AM – 7 Jun 2016

@dottorpax Ci trovate anche il mio articolo con @nntaleb sul rischio di guerre e conflitti armati.https://twitter.com/signmagazine/status/720661746730594304   Permalink 9:36 AM – 7 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Hirshberg’s beneficial ignorance theory is … sociobullshit, @BentFlyvbjerg shows http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X15301030  pic.twitter.com/1ZTN5zFWTG Permalink 3:24 AM – 7 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Intellectuals & talking-class (journos) are posing as representatives of the public. But they represent what the public doesn’t want to be. Permalink 7:14 AM – 5 Jun 2016

@SandroDemaio #WorldEnvironmentDay ’16. Fires in #California #Floods in Paris Drought in Malawi Storms in Sydney #WED2016 #auspolpic.twitter.com/frZUcjmNG2 Permalink 2:12 AM – 5 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Minority rule: the world is a better place because of very few intolerant people. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf  https://twitter.com/EDarier/status/739400089945407488   Permalink 3:16 AM – 5 Jun 2016

@nntaleb RIP Mohammed Ali. A great man, not because of boxing, but because he walked the walk when he talked the talk. Respect. Permalink 1:57 PM – 4 Jun 2016

@nntaleb By policy, block anyone who commits sophistry. And, typically, block or mute their friends. Life gets much better.https://twitter.com/JodiKoberinski/status/739190994378346497   Permalink 1:35 PM – 4 Jun 2016

@nntaleb N N Taleb’s AUB Commencement Address 2016 (Excerpts) https://youtu.be/Q_yUUNfEwok   via @YouTube Permalink 12:56 PM – 4 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Where we find out journos are NOT representative of the public. Only 7% of interpret 1st amend incorrectly #Gawkerhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/738832115823968256   Permalink 11:41 AM – 4 Jun 2016

@nntaleb For comments: translation of our work on violence. No, violence didn’t drop.@DrCirillo https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/violence-nobel.pdf  pic.twitter.com/vAxovRVEgC Permalink 5:58 AM – 4 Jun 2016

@GuruAnaerobic The hidden rationality of Homeopathy – reduction of harm. My piece in the Daily Mail.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-3619719/Could-homeopathy-HELP-NHS-stopping-people-minor-ailments-seeking-unnecessary-medical-treatment.html   Permalink 2:49 PM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The point is to test people’s understanding of Freedom of Expression. @StingMccoy Permalink 1:45 PM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Does the First Amendment (freedom of speech) cover Gawker posting spy camera sexual scenes of you against your will? Permalink 1:37 PM – 3 Jun 2016

@EHSANI22 Erdogan hands down worst strategic player in Syrian crisis. Failed to remove Assad. Helped the Kurds dream big. Permalink 1:03 PM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I read the book. I have trouble with his definition of “belief” without revelation of preferences.https://twitter.com/samuelegreen/status/738707654944555009   Permalink 11:50 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Two pages setting Quantitative historiography applied to Violence presented to the Nobel Foundation @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/8Id0xuVCGq Permalink 9:38 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Casualty of Gawker’s support by journos: idiots conflating 1st amndmnt for arguments & publishing revenge sex sceneshttps://twitter.com/jbsil/status/738719636712198144   Permalink 6:23 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Deficiency in logic: Complain that Peter Thiel is bullying legal systm as he is richer than Gawker. But Gawker is richer than its victims! Permalink 5:29 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Indeed, Atheism is a sect of Protestantism. (For one to be an atheist, religious “belief” has to be epistemic.) @holland_tom Permalink 4:45 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@holland_tom If Hinduism is a single religion, consistency requires Judaism, Xianity & Islam be categorised as sects of a single religion – Stietencron Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Removed some typos @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/cVX898hKB4 Permalink 4:16 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finishing paper for the Nobel Foundation debunking Pinker’ theory of drop in violence, w/@DrCirillopic.twitter.com/0oLFcWQW4t Permalink 3:59 AM – 3 Jun 2016

@enzolamberti Heuristic a la @nntaleb:if uncertain where common people’re heading,ask commentators for directions then go oppositehttp://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21699914-democratic-challenger-thinks-he-still-has-shot-nomination-hes?cid1=cust/ednew/n/bl/n/2016062n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/EU/n   Permalink 2:49 PM – 2 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Antifragility & Medicine, finally a clean first draft for @markomanka ‘s Springer Handbook https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf  pic.twitter.com/7sv0VX6e5F Permalink 2:00 PM – 2 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2nd ed paperback coming soon with 50% more aphorismshttps://twitter.com/JamPetrich/status/738430022030139392   Permalink 12:37 PM – 2 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Medical Article almost done, https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf   Looking for Non-Medieval necessary a priori truths in Medicine!pic.twitter.com/HQ1rJPRWJV Permalink 2:32 PM – 1 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Which explains why p-values don’t work at all for risk management.https://twitter.com/alxpr1c3/status/738064147439583232   Permalink 1:22 PM – 1 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Typical journos combine low IQ, low practical sense, low erudition, buzzword driven grasp,& a high sense of entitlement. An explosive combo! Permalink 12:31 AM – 1 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Added: Gawker bullies citizens, strong citizens bully Gawker. Asymmetry meets asymmetry! https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153873892038375  pic.twitter.com/YDkJFTcRNC Permalink 12:04 AM – 1 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Explain.https://twitter.com/brasswax/status/737771935942246401   Permalink 5:27 PM – 31 May 2016

@nntaleb Intuitive presentation of Girsanov’s Theorem in Dynamic Hedging @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/j46O2H7Wcv Permalink 5:00 PM – 31 May 2016

@nntaleb CITIZENS vs JOURNALISTS & CITIZENS vs GAWKER. Citizens usually end up winning. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153873892038375   Permalink 9:50 AM – 31 May 2016

@nntaleb Finally found the Peshitta in bilingual Syriac-Arabic much easier to read : ” Breshit bro Aloho”.pic.twitter.com/GMoLvQuH9b Permalink 7:21 AM – 31 May 2016

@nntaleb Gawker or why Journos cannot escape having Skin in the Game.pic.twitter.com/GrZZ6ZiW7t Permalink 5:43 AM – 31 May 2016

@nntaleb Many “irrational” behavior comes from unsophisticated academics. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/pseudobiases.pdf   @george_cooper__ @rorysutherland @jasonacollins Permalink 12:12 AM – 31 May 2016

@nntaleb If 1 knows Arabic & Sharia &argue FROM it they hide/can’t say Islamophobe. 6 ancestors were Jurists @pootsie121165 @Noahpinion @holland_tom Permalink 11:48 PM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Photius! He had the largest library.https://twitter.com/aarondwarwick/status/737396629863419904   Permalink 11:19 PM – 30 May 2016

@sankrant Insightful comment by @nntaleb applicable to the “sophisticated, liberal, urban English Class” in India. @sankrantpic.twitter.com/fXh7UfFccx Permalink 1:44 PM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Since my debunking of BSvendor Noah @noahpinion (still going) pple leave me alone, so I am now defending my friends.https://twitter.com/ArnauGM/status/737380239995744256   Permalink 1:32 PM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb (desert port) Permalink 1:25 PM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Just as Alexandria was a Greek port while rest was Egyptian, Damascus was an Arab port even during Omayad while rest was Byzantine-Aramaic. Permalink 1:24 PM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ansar, false accusations (such as ag @holland_tom) are criminal under Islamic law. You are not a lawyer. @MoAnsarpic.twitter.com/rymiJB2rv4 Permalink 12:39 PM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb La scienza cresce mostrando ciò che è sbagliato, non dichiarando ciò che è giusto [scienza Popperiana] @ThManfredi @dottorpax Permalink 10:06 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Almost complete documents on Antifragility in Medicine. For comments https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf  pic.twitter.com/vOKwO3gDMP Permalink 9:57 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Want to keep your intelligence intact through life? Simply do not utter intellectually & logically offensive tweets.https://twitter.com/DarrenSpicoli/status/737321842440953858   Permalink 9:41 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ansar, lying is mu7arram by Sharia. So why are you lying about Mr Holland? @holland_tom @MoAnsarpic.twitter.com/VgSKVeDqjL Permalink 5:21 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ansar, I doubt you know Arabic (given your reputation as a charlatan). Just in case حبل الكذب قصير @holland_tom @MoAnsar Permalink 3:15 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Excellent! Political studies, or pol philosophy! Problem is people use “science” for scientism & BS regressions.https://twitter.com/BenKlass/status/737216962724384768   Permalink 2:43 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb The “science” in pol science, like the “democratic” in “Democratic Pple’s Rep of Korea”, is used to hide the scam.https://twitter.com/SLdeLange/status/737199516328296448   Permalink 1:36 AM – 30 May 2016

@kcfaul Long tail risks. Seems safe today (gmo for example) until the problem is uncovered in the future @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/nytimes/status/737173895514607616   Permalink 12:11 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb In Byzantium the Orthodox Patriach was often a man of deeds, not necessarily cleric. And didn’t wear ties.https://twitter.com/KremlinRussia_E/status/736629519403102209   Permalink 1:00 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb 2) Mr Hanretty your formation as a charlatan consists in bullshitting abt things you are clueless about. I am a scientist. @chrishanretty Permalink 12:58 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb 1) Mr Hanretty, are you suggesting that one should bullshit like astrologers abt opaque things in order to bust astrologers? @chrishanretty Permalink 12:57 AM – 30 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ansar, why are you disseminating lies about Tom Holland to your followers?Does your status allow special exemption? @holland_tom @MoAnsar Permalink 11:43 PM – 29 May 2016

@nntaleb Congratulating my cousin Rene Shammas for his election as a member of the municipality of Amiounpic.twitter.com/YBf4ozWKed Permalink 1:27 PM – 29 May 2016

@nntaleb Problem moved away from Gawker (bus now risky): journos’ *sense of entitlement* to harm citizens, promotion of fallacies abt 1st amendment. Permalink 8:35 AM – 29 May 2016

@nntaleb How many of these “600 economists” saw the risks that caused the 2008 crisis? Economists are clueless. Kapish?https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/736827489008406528   Permalink 7:58 AM – 29 May 2016

@InjuredThales @czwalsh @nntaleb I guarantee that 99.9% of those defending Gawker now would be outraged if they released a Michelle and Barack sex tape. Permalink 4:37 PM – 28 May 2016

@WalterWhiteBC @nntaleb Mr.Taleb thanks for standing up to lunatics confusing free speech w/ porno voyerism anarchy and personal asymmetric destruction Permalink 2:29 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb Even for public figures, there is information and there is porno voyeurism. Spy cameras in bathrooms of public figs?https://twitter.com/czwalsh/status/736671628331978754   Permalink 2:35 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb Ben, societies have been shown to have had over history a clear idea of what is moral or not. @bhorowitz @kaimac @lkoturner @MichialFarmer Permalink 2:32 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb Theil help make the voyeuristic business model very costly. It’s the “mahket” for risk. @John_Hempton @amoselberg @Gawker Permalink 2:27 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb The nub: journos being low IQ, impractical & logically deficient, think judges are also stupid & low IQ. They’re nothttps://twitter.com/diomavro/status/736666106291703809   Permalink 2:23 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb Journos like Gawker exploiting freedom of speech by equating it to videos of your sex life on web. #Logicalfallacyhttps://twitter.com/leonletto/status/736656830651322369   Permalink 1:50 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb Fucking moron, Gawker has ruined the lives of college students! @gammatrader09 Permalink 1:26 PM – 28 May 2016

@kluslim This is a serious issue. All your snap stories could be used by your “friends” as “journalism”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/736651610198179840   Permalink 1:17 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb If Gawker wins higher court appeal then NECESSARILY anyone can post your PRIVATE activity videos ag. your will. It is Citizens vs “Journos”. Permalink 1:13 PM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb What will kill Gawker & #pseudo1stamendment fake journalism isn’t HulkHog but 21 y.o ruined w/o “newsworthy” justif.pic.twitter.com/7sMWMZlPMm Permalink 12:49 PM – 28 May 2016

@abhi2point0 “A journalist defending Gawker is like a certified public accountant defending Enron.” Wordhttps://twitter.com/munilass/status/735989191453081603   Permalink 10:41 AM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb I see no difference betw spending 20 years of researching the tomb of Aristotle & the 10th C. morbid worship of ecclesiastical relics. Permalink 7:46 AM – 28 May 2016

@balajis “Gawker manufactured a story that accused someone of rapeapparently for clicks and giggles” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larry-womack/james-franco-gawker_b_7816032.html  pic.twitter.com/2Gl2MKfPVL Permalink 11:18 PM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb Aristotle’s tomb may be good for local hotels, but conflating fetishism and contribution to knowledge is v. offensive to the philosopher. Permalink 5:00 AM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb Commencement Address at the American University in Beirut http://fooledbyrandomness.com/AUBCommencement.pdf   Permalink 12:13 AM – 28 May 2016

@nntaleb If Omidyar wants to fight for freedom of sp, back reals journos fighting power, not scum Gawker prying on 21 y.o.!!!https://twitter.com/business/status/736358883636174848   Permalink 11:47 PM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb Bankrupting immoral journalists is good for journalism.https://twitter.com/lkoturner/status/736203748096118784   Permalink 7:42 AM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb I find it a very honorable use of one’s money to bankrupt sites like Gawker. Thank you Peter Theil.https://twitter.com/lkoturner/status/736203748096118784   Permalink 7:40 AM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb It appears that the Thiel vs Gawker is about skin in the game for journos. Sorry journos, but you won’t escape SITGhttps://twitter.com/_ravisun/status/736193591798685699   Permalink 7:02 AM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb Compendaria res improbitas: Shortcuts lead to vice, long road to virtue. The Artisan’s life https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153860152453375  pic.twitter.com/6yJO40wtb3 Permalink 6:54 AM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb My experience: journos label as “thin skinned” those who make them accountable/responsible for their actions.https://twitter.com/Cimmerian999/status/736179882305179648   Permalink 6:42 AM – 27 May 2016

@MichialFarmer @lkoturner @nntaleb Do you think posting sex tapes of private citizens qualifies as “good journalism,” then? Permalink 3:16 AM – 27 May 2016

@nntaleb Enlightnment heroes, when framed sanctiness of “freedom of expression”,did not have Gawker & Engligh Tabloidism in mind. Delenda Gawker Permalink 1:45 PM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb As @RyanHoliday shows,defending Gawker that drives 21 yo to contemplate suicide in the name of 1rst amnd is criminalpic.twitter.com/hOIe1NlAFQ Permalink 1:38 PM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb 2) The purpose of the freedom of speech/1st amendment is not to favor sellers of voyeurism/gawkerism. Voyeurism hijacks freedom of speech. Permalink 1:14 PM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb 1)Don’t believe the “Gawker goes after the poweful” scam. They punish the weak. Voyeurism is not journalism. Kapish?pic.twitter.com/hSfoNTuOqF Permalink 1:11 PM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb Squid in and Lebanese rose in Beirut. Pasta >> risotopic.twitter.com/fAQ2PNLEus Permalink 10:28 AM – 26 May 2016

@jc8136 @oiwoods You should rather be appalled that only a rich guy can afford such a case! @nntaleb @POLITICOMag Permalink 4:43 AM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb Gawer has destroyed lives of college students by posting videos ag their will. &they bullied them using their power. @oiwoods @POLITICOMag Permalink 4:33 AM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/ In other words, voyeurism should not be the province of the press. Permalink 4:26 AM – 26 May 2016

@nntaleb Calling Gawker a “digital publisher” is equivalent to calling the mafia a “social club” or manure a”natural perfume”https://twitter.com/POLITICOMag/status/735664105453916160   Permalink 4:05 AM – 26 May 2016

Benthem, Precautionary Principle, Monopoly, Bayer, Monsanto, Junk Statistics, Wolfers, Piffle | Twitter

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@cfshoo You should be much more ashamed of things you didn’t say than you are of things you said. –Nassim Talebpic.twitter.com/I6tGmbbY4u Permalink 3:01 AM – 25 May 2016

@nntaleb Easier to get a job in trading/quant/risk if you are a cook than economist. Economists are for networking, gov/nonprofit nonRealWorld. Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 May 2016

@nntaleb Oil is stored solar energy; it is like a battery. The idea is to minimize storage. #RoyalColloquium2016 Permalink 2:51 AM – 25 May 2016

@EmanuelDerman More cleaning up. Lawrence Durrell on economics.pic.twitter.com/wgRRgviI7j Permalink 12:17 PM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb Bentham and the notion of utility see by Marx. @SanguineEmpiricpic.twitter.com/FgAfkBZf1K Permalink 11:40 PM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb Three intense days on the Precautionary Principle near Stockholmpic.twitter.com/xPwrQl3pkJ Permalink 3:06 AM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb If you want to convince the other side that you won the argument, you have no argument. Permalink 2:26 PM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 4/4 From a long experience observing mergers, management of 1 of the companies is usually outsed; 1 side cashes out. So Agency Problem. Permalink 7:43 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 3/3: Re: Bayer-Monsanto: we have known robustly since 1986 that mergers create negative returns, largely a game by CEOs for own benefit. Permalink 7:41 AM – 23 May 2016

@CAM_SMlTH @nntaleb a good example of this at the moment with Australian supermarkets/dairy farmers and #milkmohttp://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/20/20/31/australian-shoppers-rally-behind-struggling-dairy-farmers-as-supermarkets-sell-out-of-milk   Permalink 7:24 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb Greater monopoly is typically suicide for corporations. @CAM_SMlTH Permalink 6:58 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb My betes noires: + MONSANTO – gone ? + SAUDI BARBARIA – on the way + HILLARY MONSANTO-MALMAISON + Economic Departments + GOLDMAN SACHS – Permalink 6:47 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Bayer, as far as I know, doesn’t engage in as vicious smear campaigns against scientists as Monsanto does. Permalink 6:27 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb So Monsanto is now dead. Bayer for all its ills cannot possibly be as unethical as Monsanto. Good riddance. Permalink 6:02 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb Historia du jour: Many Caliphs were half-Greek (Al-Wathiq, Al-Muntasir, Al-Mu3tadid) and Al-Muhtadi was 3/4 Greek.pic.twitter.com/k3JryrfHMe Permalink 5:49 PM – 22 May 2016

@Shinfu Madre mía la interpretación libre y mala que se hace a @nntaleb.https://twitter.com/TorrasLuis/status/734480441881833472   Permalink 1:46 PM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb So far the last example of interventionism with huge unwanted consequences…https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/734077065574637569   Permalink 9:12 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb My co-author & I have data showing that Hedge Funds who blew up in 2007-8 were ~ those w/lowest daily volatility/highest Sharpe. @Sevens_2 Permalink 8:37 AM – 22 May 2016

@Chris_Liss @nntaleb FYI – quoted your prior tweet in a piece I wrote:https://medium.com/@chris_liss/on-a-scale-of-1-10-one-being-presidents-dont-have-that-much-power-and-10-being-this-could-end-7016cfe03d0a#.j48yzhh9o   Permalink 8:30 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Mapping Antifragile/convexity for medical responses, as precisely and formally as possible https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf  pic.twitter.com/WS3PZqjy9L Permalink 8:30 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 When I hear “data driven” I smell mistaking absence for evidence for evidence of absence, a la Pinker.https://twitter.com/JonHaidt/status/734403700362481667   Permalink 8:27 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Bill Gates is not a risk scientist & not a logician;”data driven” meaningless for complex systems/hidden risks w/Turkey Problems @JonHaidt Permalink 8:23 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Bjorn Lomborg is a dangerous charlatan. If you keep him on campus you shd also have fortune tellers & palm readers.https://twitter.com/jonhaidt/status/733614770637524993   Permalink 12:58 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Supreme rigor of the Russian school of probability: they dealt in inequalities not identities @philipbstarkpic.twitter.com/LubP6jkZUJ Permalink 2:30 PM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Clearly, Donaldo is not interventionist. Much of the rest, in foreign policy, becomes a detail.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/734066896794963968   Permalink 10:08 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Everything one does to hide intellectual dishonesty increases dishonesty. When caught lying, @amonck, confess. @Sartor1836 @WLTSchirano Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Liar Adrian Monck, when caught, kept changing the story “not in TBS”, “not in Chapter x”, “not on page x”, etc. @WLTSchirano @amonck Permalink 9:24 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb MD for “public engagement” @ Davos,Adrian Monck @amonck repeating “no ref to Popper” in T Black Swan. There are 53 mentions of Popper. Liar. Permalink 8:40 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb This tells you the author is a journo. @Confusezeuspic.twitter.com/E8v189RCxl Permalink 6:25 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Question: To become a mathematican 1- Work w/operators & functionals not just functions 2- in dual spaces 3- measure in proofs 4- what else? Permalink 5:31 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Same Joseph Stiglitz who said FNMAe had no chance of blowing up. Why we need to close econ departments & restart.https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/733871589536628736   Permalink 5:24 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb It is not just a single tweet that will get Mr Wolfers in trouble #nontrivial … @MadBurry @JustinWolfers @HillaryClinton @bill_easterly Permalink 4:58 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb In probability space, how tail eventsmore effective for threshold dependent outcomes #Medicine @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/zNy1YSAFNH Permalink 4:55 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb How variability can me more effective/more economical @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/s91lyXDYnP Permalink 4:29 AM – 21 May 2016

@wrathofgnon “Modernity: we created youth without heroism, age without wisdom, and life without grandeur.”— Nassim Nicholas Talebpic.twitter.com/pdFza8MpTi Permalink 5:26 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb …unless you are running for office. Permalink 2:17 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Rule: never immediately attribute to terrorism what can more easily be first explained by incompetence.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/733762983629840385   Permalink 1:59 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb The Incerto as a Multidisciplinary project in Probability: how to figure out that things link together.pic.twitter.com/KQ9eIn8pIN Permalink 12:34 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb For more technical explanation why retire Standard Deviation https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/standarddev.pdf  https://twitter.com/newsycombinator/status/733674236410265602   Permalink 11:21 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Formalizing #Antifragility in Medicine: Putting together stuff/making notation uniform for @markomankapic.twitter.com/h58PnG7BjY Permalink 8:56 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Statement “economics is abt making all of us better off” means “economics is abt making ALL economists [bureaucrats/empty suits] better off” Permalink 7:40 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Mark you are tooooo much in a hurry. Interesting things take some time. @GuruAnaerobic @JustinWolfers Permalink 5:28 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb When someone @justinwolfers living frm charitable contributions judges the knowledge of businessmen #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/733477369852231680   Permalink 5:13 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Wolfers @JustinWolfers & I will soon have an entertaining (possibly one-sided) discussion of probability theory @theYoungerPitt Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Students saying “fat tails” instead of “cheese” at partypic.twitter.com/8pZjuWvYsP Permalink 3:34 PM – 19 May 2016

@nntaleb As predicted Donaldo having secured thenomination is now going for the left wing votes. Brilliant!https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/732893573365010432   Permalink 6:23 PM – 18 May 2016

@nntaleb This fellow, it now transpired, also works for Monsanto. Explains methods in (failed) smear campaign against me.http://nyti.ms/1wOx2Fq   Permalink 11:23 AM – 18 May 2016

@beachvetlbc Evidence is- there are NO HUMAN studies to support GMO safety claims & remaining animal studies don’t either @mindlessfunk @kevinfolta Permalink 3:29 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The full text is at http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/significance.pdf   @RodBerne Permalink 2:45 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb A summary of our problem with the junk statistics of Pinker.pic.twitter.com/DJlsTVM8eQ Permalink 2:40 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb I am not a UK taxpayer, so I cannot ethically voice an opinion for which I pay no price if wrong. #SkinintheGamehttps://twitter.com/Sapere_vivere/status/732678594988740609   Permalink 2:08 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Looks like the Incerto is finally going to be ONE book (in one boxset)! Don’t tell my publisher I showed it!pic.twitter.com/F8S4fQW4es Permalink 2:00 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The Holy Roman Empire was 1) not Roman, 2) not Holy, and 3) not an Empire. @sevanslux Permalink 8:34 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The Roman Empire is centrally a Mediterranean culture, structure, way of being, etc. “Europe” is a much later thingyhttps://twitter.com/CultureHouse/status/732593649704374276   Permalink 8:31 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb A clearer point of #Antifragile @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/Yr3ltKbmAW Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Wolfers will soon discover that doing probability right is much much harder than it looks. @iMetaldog @JustinWolfers Permalink 7:23 AM – 17 May 2016

@ZbraPntedDonky @nntaleb @mpigliucci @PembertonT Whenever someone leads off “With I haven’t read the book but”, prepare for pretentious piffle. Permalink 4:57 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Pigliucci has the knee jerk reaction of the academic rat: dismiss w/o knowing. Not scholarly @ZbraPntedDonky @mpigliucci @PembertonT Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb It is in Diogenes Laertius (tons of references) https://www.google.com/#tbm=bks&hl=en&q=zeno+of+citium+maritime+loans+diogene+laertius   @mpigliucci strikes me as a rationalistic ignoramus @PembertonT Permalink 4:53 AM – 17 May 2016

@zerohedge Nassim Taleb’s “Shillary vs The Donald” Cheat Sheethttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-16/nassim-talebs-shillary-vs-donald-cheat-sheet   Permalink 4:20 PM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Dear Mr @JustinWolfers do your papers on betting/long shots take account of these biases? Couldn’t find.Thank you.pic.twitter.com/Se3PPSPjQy Permalink 4:01 PM – 16 May 2016

@CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb Will this (lazy way) become a 21st century way? Permalink 11:27 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb If you believe that crank Falkenstein, here is something for you http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   @z31r4m @Napoleonlegal Permalink 8:42 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Latin du Jour: Where I discover that “asinus asinum fricat” (donkey rubs donkey)translates to “Salma quotes Sabrina” https://twitter.com/BanPaidMedia   Permalink 6:46 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/What I mean by rigorous is not making assumptions/ certainties when there is uncertainty. Shillary offers certainties, Trump fewer ones. Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Used a one-tailed dist for x @HarryhongHong @markomankapic.twitter.com/uZkV4omqAg Permalink 4:49 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb How we transfer from dose response to probability space. Param a controls fatness of tails. @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/xsUi5afFIu Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Hillary and Bush have done the most to harm minority populations in the Levant & Iraq since Genghis Khan. @hopps3 Permalink 4:46 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Bernie v. Trump I go Bernie because his domestic policies won’t go through and his foreign policies are clearer @BoustanyMazen Permalink 3:39 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Comparing outcomes and foreign policy for Trump vs Hillary in a more rigorous waypic.twitter.com/ujwQS3iXmb Permalink 3:20 PM – 15 May 2016

@GuruAnaerobic @nntaleb Press hav just done this with Boris Johnson – “Boris has compared EU to Hitler!”. Yet this is what he said:pic.twitter.com/J3M2sNUvtD Permalink 1:02 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb We need @holland_tom: From Caesar to Herakles Rome had 7 full centuries of domination of Med, vs ~100 y as a Republic @JohnMinehan1 Permalink 11:34 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb So, Charlatan Noah @Noahpinion, sorry, but web won’t be a hospitable place for strawmanning/intellectual dishonesty.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/731294077006848006   Permalink 10:09 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Tactic by journos: catch them committing straw man they gang up strawman more portraying you “thin skinned”, as this imbecile @TimOBrien Permalink 9:18 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb How Journos are marketing Trump.pic.twitter.com/kTqyX1GT1X Permalink 8:09 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb This summarizes how we can introduce a formal view of fragility in Medicine. Any comments? @markomankapic.twitter.com/3FLXaatSNj Permalink 7:04 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb 3) If I had to pick the persons in power the most ignorant of complexity/interactions: Henry Kissinger & Hillary Clinton-Monsanto-Malmaison Permalink 8:22 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb 2) I am not saying the US needs an emperor, I am saying the US to stay a true republic should be noninterventionist.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/731684287355981824   Permalink 8:20 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Fact du jour: Rome was the dominant empire & a republic for a short period, 3rd punic war to Rubicon ~90 years. Permalink 8:15 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Sorry. Blocking was done automatically when the PR firm Ketchum was harrassing me; all followers of blocked were autoblocked. @Chris_arnade Permalink 7:14 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Surviving traders can think clearly. Others I am never sure except when I see the math/formal reasoning. Skin in the game. @learnfromerror Permalink 6:30 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb This guy has an admirable behavior: he hates my guts & I blocked him. He should be a trader if he isn’t one already.https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/731593316198846464   Permalink 5:32 PM – 14 May 2016

@AmuseChimp would @Noahpinion be as much of a bullshitter if duels still existed? Permalink 5:12 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Lost all respect for Petraeus: at SALT he said wem shd be forgiving w/SaudiBabaria re 9/11 as “an ally”. Bureaucrats are Morally Nauseating. Permalink 5:12 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb The point is not just the 28 pages linking to Saudi Barbaria, it is what has been taking place SINCE then.https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/731179284203769856   Permalink 5:09 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Retribution should be rare, but when you do it, go for the jugular.https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/731630974740631552   Permalink 5:04 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Five hours left to vote on how to deal with Charlatan Noah Smith @Noahpinionhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/731294077006848006   Permalink 12:44 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb This is exactly what I meant. @markmadsen @swardleypic.twitter.com/haN8RMiOY5 Permalink 10:20 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Central limit works slowly in the real world: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/fattails.html   @urcum62 @financequantpic.twitter.com/7MYU9w52L5 Permalink 7:39 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Central limit works very slowly for finite variance infinite higher moments such as cubic @urcum62 @financequantpic.twitter.com/DbncpwkpUM Permalink 7:37 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb I never threated. I act first as with Charlatan @noahpinion then threaten when finished. @Fight_Whisperer Permalink 7:28 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb A generalized sigmoid curve for dose-response in Medicine. Has anyone seen such generalization in lit? @markomankapic.twitter.com/vq3KoT0r4p Permalink 6:55 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony rarely reacts but when he does so he makes up for it and never stops until the fellows goes into hiding @PaulSkallas @Noahpinion Permalink 6:34 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb If Charlatan Noah Smith @noahpinion smears again http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   I should expose him with what multiplier? Permalink 6:24 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Balkanization works Balkanization stabilizes Balkanization reduces oppression of minorities @yaneerbaryam @WLTSchirano @joshua_landis Permalink 2:54 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Remember: Turks killed more minorities after their “Westernization” than pripr. Modernism. @davefobare @GrkStav @yaneerbaryam @joshua_landis Permalink 2:08 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Secularism failed in the Levant & Turkey. Best to do an @yaneerbaryam “better fences make better neighbors”. Decentralize! @joshua_landis Permalink 1:48 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb If you smell what I smell there are 17 million Alevis in Turkey. Trad they conceal their faith. So expect more…https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/731219043240173569   Permalink 1:29 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Question: Do non-initially convex dose-response functions exist in nature? #Medicine #Antifragile @markomankapic.twitter.com/QcAqUkJqiz Permalink 12:34 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Second edition of The Bed of Procrustes @JohnDCookpic.twitter.com/FzDGAom67o Permalink 8:33 AM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Solution to the Gibrat vs Mandelbrot problem: When bounded, locally power laws have lognormal tails. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1510.06731.pdf   @financequant Permalink 7:28 AM – 13 May 2016

Antifragile Medicine, Las Vegas, Real World Risk, Status, Beirut Madinati, Commons, Ethics | Facebook

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Friends, this is technical but it maps the ideas of Antifragile to medicine in a formal way. :
It is still a draft 5/22/16
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf

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In Las Vegas at a conference, I explained fragility as nonlinearity:
mix a $2,000 bottle of wine with a $10 one. The 2 bottles will be worth less than $1,005 each.  5/12/16

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Friends, our uberization of education is working, working. We intent to keep it at the artisanal level (no online stuff, no scaling) because we enjoy lecturing and want to keep enjoying the atmosphere. Artisanal is a way of being.

We added a quantitative certificate to the qualitative one we already have. The quantitative certificate is August 15-19 in Stony Brook. More advanced, deeper.

Note that the June 6-10 program has ~ 50 people registered. Note that we gave a certain number of scholarships (more than universities!)

www.realworldrisk.com

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Try to talk to a stranger without signaling your status and see how pleasant you will be to him/her.
This is how salespeople and con men operate. They make you crave their company because you do not feel threatened. 5/12/16

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I’d rather live in a place where nothing appears to make sense but things work, rather than in a place where things make sense but don’t work. 5/9/16

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If you are in Beirut, please vote for Beirut Madinati in Sunday’s municipal election. They are part of the recent worldwide movement to displace established rent seekers and increase governance.
As you can observe, not one of them is wearing a tie.

Note that, in a globalized world, municipal rule is central. We are inching back to the autonomous Phoenician city states.

PS- I do not vote in Beirut (I am registered in my ancestral village Amioun although my grandfather moved to Beirut in 1922).

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's photo.
5/6/16

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The best definition of a commons: a space in which you are treated by others the way you treat them.

This continues the previous conversation and connects the commons to skin in the game and golden and silver rules. 5/5/15

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SKIN IN THE GAME
What I picked up from Elinor Ostrom is that the private and the public are not the only two entities. There is something called a “commons” in between. As with any complex systems, people behave differently at a different scale. This explains why the municipal is different from the national. It also explains how tribes operate: you are part of a specific group that is larger than the narrow *you*, but narrower than humanity in general.

People share some things *but not others* withing a specified group. And there is a protocol for dealing with the outside. Arab pastoral tribes have firm rules of hospitality towards nonhostile strangers who don’t threaten their commons, but get violent when the stranger is a threat.

The “public good” is something abstract, taken out of a textbook. Everything abstract fails. To repeat, scale, rather than type of regime, is the prime explanation of the flop of communism.

PS – One of the themes in SKIN IN THE GAME is that the “individual” is ill-defined an entity. “Me” is more likely to be a group than a single person. Note that the scale transformation (a group doesn’t have the preferences of an individual) brings us to the flaw in the “selfish gene” theory, which was shown to be mathematically shody by E.O. Wilson and Nowak as well as Yaneer Bar-Yam. 5/3/16

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You can very easily distinguish real philosophers and scientists from the CV-building, academic rat variety. The real thing tell you what they are *trying* to figure out, not what they *did* in past career. 4/30/16

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Admonish your friends in private; praise them in public. And distrust anyone who does the reverse.

(Secrete amicos admone; lauda palam.) 4/28/16

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Someone saying “ethics is good for success” is missing the entire point of ethics.  4/19/16

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Added a page as public service (he will now leave me alone, this is to protect others, preserve the integrity of the system)
This is the minority rule: it takes only a few very very intolerant and tenacious people to make the system more honest.
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html  4/18/16

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Friends, this is what I wrote in The Black Swan about rare events: they are very difficult to assess probabilistically. Not underpriced: hard to price, hence one should avoid being fragile to them. 4/15/16

Accordingly I have asked for a formal retraction of an article by Noah Smith (someone who has been spreading nonsense for years) and who apparently has not read the book.

http://www.bloombergview.com/…/everyone-worries-too-much-ab…
Added a page:
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's photo.