1) Never insult fallen entrepreneurs
2) Governement debt is worse than private debt because absence of skin in the game
— ThinkerView (@Thinker_View) May 1, 2019
@nntaleb Typos and explained the inequality pic.twitter.com/uMIqGjehWd Permalink 11:20 AM – 15 May 2019
@nntaleb A familiar argument https://twitter.com/noamchomskyt/status/1128700073611792384 Permalink 10:10 AM – 15 May 2019
@nntaleb QUESTION This friend of mine is writing a blurb for Stephen Wolfram. Wolfram is a genius but that’s the least uncommon of his attributes. Are there other successful living scientists who are so fully independent that they do everything on their own terms? Permalink 9:38 AM – 15 May 2019
@nntaleb One possible approach pic.twitter.com/R5xZTiObNY Permalink 5:34 AM – 15 May 2019
@nntaleb MATH RIDDLE DU JOUR. Since my name is on it, I am obligated to solve. pic.twitter.com/EKNkppK3fO Permalink 5:29 AM – 15 May 2019
@nntaleb NUDGE SINISTER: How Behavioral Economics is Dangerous Verbalism. A project that will end up putting Nudgevillain @R_Thaler in his place. Filling in the math progressively. pic.twitter.com/zhJcYOyrZj Permalink 5:16 AM – 15 May 2019
@nntaleb Note that Fleishman Hillard boasts “balancing 80% of interactions on Twitter”, which includes …this feed. pic.twitter.com/aQjr7PkH4w Permalink 4:41 AM – 15 May 2019
@EnlivenmentNow See this thread for details on this clear attempt by French intelligence services to intimidate journalists revealing information about links between France and Saudi Arabia. Seems to follow on intelligence agreement between the 2 countries https://twitter.com/oliviertesquet/status/1128351519907176450 CC: @nntaleb Permalink 4:17 AM – 15 May 2019
@mikeharrisNY Another interview of @nntaleb that must become mandatory course material in business schools. I will write something based on it from past experience about friends that lost nearly everything in previous market turmoil periods while the #IYI look at longer-term charts. $SPX https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1128289415871258625 Permalink 12:55 PM – 14 May 2019
@nntaleb It appears that the Nudgevillain Richard Thaler @r_thaler blocked @blackswanman. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1128296265178124289 Permalink 10:24 AM – 14 May 2019
@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @paulkrugman @R_Thaler #IYIs #expertproblem pic.twitter.com/VifnmTYDeg Permalink 6:49 AM – 14 May 2019
@nntaleb INTERVIEW WITH ERIK SCHATZKER 1) Do not insult fallen entrepreneurs 2) Governement debt is worse than private debt because absence of skin in the game 3) The imperative of tail risk hedging 4) Make money at your job, not in the markets https://youtu.be/4OfnsOT1ys8 Permalink 6:22 AM – 14 May 2019
@nntaleb Fleishman Hillard is under French government investigation in the Monsanto Roundup affair for having a “hit list” of people to discredit and smear. I was on their US list. My response to them. If you work for a lobbying firm, get out. Your job is unethical. pic.twitter.com/KqPdokNfTJ Permalink 5:19 AM – 14 May 2019
@nntaleb Imagine if we locked up warmongers… This is why I am supporting @TulsiGabbard even if I disagree with here socio-economic orientation. Just via negativa: avoidance of war is of yuuuuuuuuuuge benefits. https://twitter.com/EricSchmittNYT/status/1128086354708107264 Permalink 5:11 AM – 14 May 2019
@nntaleb Friends, thanks for the comments. The intro to @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition is complete. pic.twitter.com/TTDthRXCTd Permalink 5:00 AM – 14 May 2019
@GeertNoels Roundup is harmful for the environment and for your stock price… #monsanto #Bayer #Roundup @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/XCkEYjLsh7 Permalink 3:46 AM – 14 May 2019
@nntaleb Monsanto lost another case. I would love the chance to tear apart their epidemiological claims. pic.twitter.com/1Dml305mLX Permalink 2:19 PM – 13 May 2019
@nntaleb Never complain about people, no matter how justified. Just drive them to complain about you. Permalink 1:33 PM – 13 May 2019
@financequant What can I say but that everyone needs to take this advice seriously. If it makes you uncomfortable or if you can’t seem to accept it, then you must consider that those feelings may arise precisely because you have exposed yourself to unacceptable levels of tail risk. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1127960959576940548 Permalink 1:19 PM – 13 May 2019
@nntaleb https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-05-09/taleb-says-fed-should-do-minimum-harm-and-expresses-his-concerns-about-deficits-video Permalink 8:37 AM – 13 May 2019
@black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-05-09/taleb-says-fed-should-do-minimum-harm-and-expresses-his-concerns-about-deficits-video #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @wef #Davos #IYIs ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Cfv9JnxkLo”> pic.twitter.com/Cfv9JnxkLo Permalink 6:54 AM – 13 May 2019
@spyrosmakrid Thanks Nassim for your great Introduction. The Special Issue of the INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING devoted exclusively to the M4 Competition will be available in digital form in the middle of June and in printed form at the end of the summer. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1127912576543875072 Permalink 6:15 AM – 13 May 2019
@nntaleb Intro to @spyrosmakrid M4 competition pic.twitter.com/gdOzYzoCdO Permalink 5:24 AM – 13 May 2019
@MaxAbrahms The US has a history of escalating against adversaries based on pretenses that turned out false. Pay attention to allegations of Iranian belligerence that are short on detail & walked back. This is one of the most critical functions of media it won’t do. https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/12/middleeast/uae-cargo-ship-sabotage-intl/index.html Permalink 2:41 AM – 13 May 2019
@nntaleb Plus add the ?000,000 dead foreigners… Yet nobody addressed the source of Wahabism that spread AFTER 2001 thanks to the US support across madrassahs. Or Obama’s support to AlQaeda in Syria. Etc., etc. https://twitter.com/johncatsjr/status/1127692084021010434 Permalink 3:00 PM – 12 May 2019
@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 10 (not 9) Permalink 2:46 PM – 12 May 2019
@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 9 + That IQ tests measure “intelligence”. They mostly measure 1) obedience, 2) the unintelligence of IQ psychologists/psychometricians. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 1:41 PM – 12 May 2019
@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 9 + That GMO (Genetic Modification) is “scientific”, that it is just “accelerated breeding”. It is scientism & not in the same class as breeding. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html Permalink 1:24 PM – 12 May 2019
@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 8 + That Modern Portfolio Theory (Markowitz) is imperfect. It is not imperfect, it is wrong, in the sense that you are better off not using it than using it. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ Permalink 1:22 PM – 12 May 2019
@john_f_hamer The opposite of a networker: a person who’s habitually nice to people who won’t be useful to him in the future. Permalink 7:11 AM – 12 May 2019
@nntaleb If you need to post a screenshot to back-up your tweet (or aphorism), you’ve already lost the argument. Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 May 2019
@nntaleb This makes sense! https://twitter.com/fareedzakaria/status/1126163836665511936 Permalink 4:20 PM – 11 May 2019
@jadabdala Heights of Canaan – Ehden under. Ampi, Chekka, Tripolis and the Mediterranean on the horizon. Bcharreh & Qodisha valley on my left. Arados on my right. Baal above. pic.twitter.com/eMPvWa09lt Permalink 8:22 AM – 11 May 2019
@nntaleb Ρωμιός εγώ γεννήθηκα, Ρωμιός θέμα να πεθάνω Permalink 5:12 AM – 11 May 2019
@nntaleb A rebirth of Hellenic identity among the North Syrian/North Lebanon “Rums” (My tribe). pic.twitter.com/HBTe3iGYxy Permalink 5:11 AM – 11 May 2019
@normonics All things considered, wild release GMO poses much vaster uncertainty and therefore risk than does increase of CO2 Not to trivialize the latter, just a reasonable assessment given the additional complexity when the released agents are novel and historyless living organisms Permalink 6:06 PM – 10 May 2019
@nntaleb Weapon makers used to rely on the naturally militaristic right for shilling. They got smarter and figured out it’s more effective to use the so-called “center-left” such as the NYT, CNN, the despicable Thomas Friedman, and the democratic party. Why is why we NEED @TulsiGabbard ! Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 May 2019
@nntaleb Weapon makers used to rely on the naturally militaristic right for shilling. They got smarter and figured out it’s more effective to use the so-called “center-left” such as the NYT, CNN, the despicable Thomas Friedman, and the democratic party. Why is why we NEED @TulsiGabbard ! Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 May 2019
@nntaleb To explain LOCALISM: On August 6, 1806, the Holy Roman Empire was abolished. Goethe noted that day that the people staying in the same inn as him were far more interested in the quarrel between their coachman and the innkeeper than in its demise. #Lindy Permalink 1:13 PM – 10 May 2019
@nntaleb 2-Napoleon wrote (dictated) 10-30 letters a day; he was maximally into micromanagement. While emperor, on the campaign before Austerlitz, he wrote to the governor of Genoa asking him to stop taking his mistress to the opera because of a prostitution record. Yet he did think big! Permalink 11:31 AM – 10 May 2019
@nntaleb This is to express my warm support to @TulsiGabbard as a noble democratic candidate and the bestfor Peace. Only she has the guts to stand up against the sinister militaristic lobby! #Tulsi2020 #SALT2019 https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1125746099900141569 Permalink 10:16 AM – 10 May 2019
@nntaleb 2/ while Mandeville, Smith, and complexity theory have shown that a good system is one that, by scale transformation, turns individual vice, biases, and quirks into collective virtue. Permalink 8:15 AM – 10 May 2019
@nntaleb What socialists, academics, neocons, and other idiots share is the belief that it is the intentions, and not so much the results, that matter. Permalink 7:52 AM – 10 May 2019
@nntaleb The Book Jacket Description https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fjDBYfOvVT”> pic.twitter.com/fjDBYfOvVT Permalink 6:37 AM – 10 May 2019
@nntaleb J’ai été fiché par Fleishman Hillard. https://twitter.com/20hfrance2/status/1126555600501059584 Permalink 5:25 AM – 10 May 2019
@EconTalker My new animated video on how economists and journalists have distorted the evidence on growth and how it treats the poor and the middle class: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_i8Tq032JQ Permalink 2:54 PM – 9 May 2019
@nntaleb For every successful entrepreneur you hear about on TV, there are 999 failed one eating canned sardines for dinner. Permalink 10:05 AM – 9 May 2019
@nntaleb 7) Probabilistically risk takers earn LESS than salarypeople, particularly when you consider CEOs as nonrisktakers acroparasites. Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 May 2019
@nntaleb 7) Probabilistically risk takers earn LESS than salarypeople, particularly when you consider CEOs as nonrisktakers acroparasites. Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 May 2019
@nntaleb The Marxisto-Leftophrasts IYIs have lived under the narrative that employees are weak pple exploited by employers. Now we have robots, some made by robots. Why do they complain about the absence of exploitation? Permalink 7:02 AM – 9 May 2019
@nntaleb 6) Socialists managed to drill in people’s heads the illusion that the money that pays for services is ultimately generated in Mars, that the industrial revolution was a British government project, & that … schoolteachers know anything about anything. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1126290004223750144 Permalink 6:09 AM – 9 May 2019
@nntaleb Where did the money come from? Transfers from Mars? We need to find a cure for financial illiteracy. https://twitter.com/sailorupper/status/1126289023478136834 Permalink 5:57 PM – 8 May 2019
@nntaleb 5) Show me how a salaryperson can lose net money. Negative salary? https://twitter.com/CryptoPsyop/status/1126232433467301890 Permalink 4:43 PM – 8 May 2019
@nntaleb 4) With civil servants, what you see is what is there. With entrepreneurs, what you see is the subset of successful ones, not the entire cohort, which includes a huge majority of failures. Yet we need this risk-taking. Permalink 4:37 PM – 8 May 2019
@nntaleb 3) The CEO of the company is not the entrepreneur w/skin in the game, but often some acroparasite actor milking the system. Permalink 4:03 PM – 8 May 2019
@nntaleb 2) And remember that it is risk takers and the mechanism of risk-taking that pulled more than a billion people out of poverty, not the design of some NGOer, civil servant, or some other acroparasite on a steady salary. Gabish? Permalink 3:03 PM – 8 May 2019
@nntaleb A short quiz in memory of Alexander Bogomolny @SvetlanaBogom13 pic.twitter.com/L3XCdurmq5 Permalink 2:46 PM – 8 May 2019
@nntaleb If there were no entrepreneurs and risk takers … (I am getting idiots commenting on salaries without thinking in higher order terms.) Permalink 1:58 PM – 8 May 2019
@nntaleb ATTENTION SALARYPEOPLE Next Friday when your guaranteed monthly paycheck is deposited, take a moment of gratitude for the entrepreneurs who took the risks so you get this risk-free income. Shaming an risk-taker for losing money is like shaming a soldier for losing a limb. Permalink 1:31 PM – 8 May 2019
@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio #OceanX #allweather #riskparity #riskyparity pic.twitter.com/r7BZUNiWVY Permalink 12:09 PM – 8 May 2019
@nntaleb You don’t show on your tax return the losses of others. [Should I lose patience with NYT-induced financial illiteracy? ] https://twitter.com/aledussaillant/status/1126182246459875330 Permalink 11:06 AM – 8 May 2019
@PaulMMCooper Breathtaking aerial photography of the Roman ruins of Baalbek in Lebanon, by @rami_rizk. pic.twitter.com/LarhOPXaaK Permalink 7:58 AM – 7 May 2019
@nntaleb This is to show @spyrosmakrid How someone’s small miscalibration in probability translate into miscalibration in forecasting the corresponding deviation. Something Phil-the-Rat Tetlock @Ptetlock has been trying to hide. pic.twitter.com/TiMcN77qpk Permalink 6:00 AM – 7 May 2019
@nntaleb Medicine is for the very ill, never the healthy. In #Antifragile, there is the assertion that there has been practically NOTHING made by humans to “improve” on nature or help with shortcuts that did not end up harming with UNSEEN side effects. #HiddenRisk https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1125725279090032640 Permalink 4:37 AM – 7 May 2019
@nntaleb In Antifragile… https://twitter.com/ryanpflynn/status/1125647039365148672 Permalink 4:11 AM – 7 May 2019
@nntaleb Getting close to finishing my paper for the very patient @spyrosmakrid showing why the “prediction” and “superforecaster” theories (@PTetlock-style) business is BS (but in polite words). https://www.academia.edu/38962327/On_the_Difference_between_Forecasting_and_Real_Life_Payoffs ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/CNxSLCc0tI”> pic.twitter.com/CNxSLCc0tI Permalink 3:48 AM – 7 May 2019
@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb recommends buying six copies of this book, just in case you need to bribe someone https://www.amazon.com/Elements-Information-Theory-Telecommunications-Processing/dp/0471241954 Permalink 3:07 PM – 6 May 2019
@nntaleb Today is my 14th and last lecktshur for 2019. Back next Feb. pic.twitter.com/aTUb9ksEpu Permalink 1:08 PM – 6 May 2019
@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic is yet again about #IQ for this I put the blame on @nntaleb, who sparked off my current “obsession” This strip was also inspired by @normonics and @paulportesi [defining intelligence, 1 of 2] For more visit http://www.offshorecomic.com ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/SjgFWfuMFb”> pic.twitter.com/SjgFWfuMFb Permalink 11:03 AM – 6 May 2019
@GregorySMcMurry People used to accept this up until recently https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1125301469488517120 Permalink 7:22 AM – 6 May 2019
@antifragi7 If you wanna learn more about this idiotic fragilista read @nntaleb ‘s Antifragile. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile https://twitter.com/TheBlock__/status/1125370104521330688 Permalink 6:47 AM – 6 May 2019
@nntaleb If you let people think that you’re a total a**hole, you’ll never have to be one. Permalink 4:14 AM – 6 May 2019
@nntaleb BYZANTINE REAL HISTORY: Debunking Myths about the Arab Invasion of the Levant https://www.facebook.com/ByzantineRealHistory/posts/835964876782564?__xts__[0]=68.ARCSTgFrFlpkQnvfzyoA6NGRetEXm_bbubp_ihAOyIpmLEBW_k3Y2OqmIXhLckOhy6gvNxJUEqtX7skC75VjIs6fsTsDSjShkxtkvWzn4BEg8kSAAzXs_oYORlvY9GdBNZQnjxQP-9Imzm5faVzED474SEjhpkgltYPhRom4_rkHctURNVWJg8KAo-xERehaaZrZfisnzirgxdKLE4nzXpKLEDPa0ALUeyJQItAXJVGF19PduJ7hIsmj9rR4cYbg89KpIHi7IC2h6qOIHbFQbp9P49w1GN04ukvSIjMIBSEmNGNIiPq-GKZ_MfVSlGOiLb7shVuiEtR4UyaVWCuKA0o&__tn__=-R Permalink 2:55 PM – 5 May 2019
@nntaleb https://twitter.com/horrdorr/status/1125116447305265152 Permalink 12:22 PM – 5 May 2019
@nntaleb 2/ It is much easier for a criminal to fake being an honest person than for an honest person to fake being a criminal. Likewise it is easier for a fat-tailed distribution to fake being thin tailed than for a thin-tailed distributions to fake being fat tailed. Permalink 10:29 AM – 5 May 2019
@nntaleb EXCELLENT QUESTION FROM A READER pic.twitter.com/lECfkVeABM Permalink 10:25 AM – 5 May 2019
@_benoux_ Nice! Κρατοπαράσιτον. Κρατοπαρασιτικόν. Κρατοπαρασιτικός. Looks so natural it feels it already exists in greek. Permalink 9:55 AM – 5 May 2019
@AnarContrarian “The story of the nation-State is that of the concentration and magnification of human errors. Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility” -@nntaleb Permalink 9:37 AM – 5 May 2019
@nntaleb Fundamentally, the word shd be about parasites without #skininthegame Permalink 8:53 AM – 5 May 2019
@nntaleb Which is why tipping is dynamic not static! https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1124765420106473472 Permalink 8:39 AM – 5 May 2019
@nntaleb OK, July 30: Incerto Box Set https://www.amazon.com/dp/198481981X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_H6VZCb19XZK37 via @amazon Permalink 8:18 AM – 5 May 2019
@nntaleb Parasitism is the clearest @JoshHochschild. We can alter it or find synonyms. We need @_benoux_’s Hellenicism. Permalink 5:29 AM – 5 May 2019
@bpaf was thinking about that passage the other day as it extends in the prophetic footnote cfr https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114184010551496705 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Y10aJgH6Cm”> pic.twitter.com/Y10aJgH6Cm Permalink 5:24 AM – 5 May 2019
@nntaleb We need a Graeco-Roman sounding name for “rent seeking” and “rent seekers”; something that one does not have to translate into French as “rent seeking” can be ambiguous. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1014119297835257857?s=21 Permalink 4:51 AM – 5 May 2019
@nntaleb 2/2 Being hated by the rentseeker is equivalent to being loved by the righteous. (A confirmation (here @WGoetzmann) I am doing something right.) pic.twitter.com/xukzi93vi0 Permalink 12:49 PM – 4 May 2019
@nntaleb Actually, I can be mean. Very mean. With some. But angry? Rarely. 1/2 https://twitter.com/ryanstephens/status/1124740868488015874 Permalink 12:44 PM – 4 May 2019
@jstarklefkowitz “In the classroom the ruler measures the table in the real world the table measures the ruler”. Sans skin in the game, critics opinions only tell you about the critics themselves never about the thing they are criticizing. Permalink 11:50 AM – 4 May 2019
@nntaleb NAPOLEON THREAD, seen w/modern eyes. 1-Napoleon & the English talked past one another. Napoleon liked glory, administration, image, ideas, top-down nations, top-down code. The English liked commerce & wd have left him alone if he didn’t heavily tax their good for pass through. pic.twitter.com/kYHE6ybzrS Permalink 11:34 AM – 4 May 2019
@nntaleb 3) Easy to deconvert someone from State worship via Martin Luther’s argument that “God & clergy are different “tings””. Show them that bureaucrats-cronies-nudgeboys-virtue merchants & “State” aren’t the same “ting” & “the State is among us”. Keep the State distributed! #Localism pic.twitter.com/lmgVMXYQY7 Permalink 5:59 AM – 4 May 2019
@nntaleb The problem isn’t inequality, it’s RENT SEEKERS without skin in the game. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 May 2019
@nntaleb RENT SEEKERS We need to make pple aware that discontent related to inequality is mainly discontent about rent seeking and rent seekers. Prevent rent seekers from exploiting this discontent by making it look like society need more IYIs like them to solve it. #GiletJaunes Permalink 5:20 AM – 4 May 2019
@Jaffer22915438 Joe Rogan!!! I am also hopping on the Tulsi train. I thought I would never vote again… but she will save lives and not surround herself with neocon assholes. https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1124353541953474560 Permalink 1:28 AM – 4 May 2019
@TalebWisdom “To establish societal symmetry: The bigotteer needs to be penalized the same as the bigot. The false accuser needs to be penalized as if he committed the crime himself (Hammurabi). etc.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #symmetry Permalink 12:43 AM – 4 May 2019
@mark_terlesky I’m a fmr journo. Hold a “MJ” fr UC Berkeley. I recently made @nntaleb ‘s above quote the lead pic to my alumnus profile. Hope I don’t get dis-owned by Cal’s SOJ. If I do, fine. I went on to making lots of $ in the law, HR, small biz, & on @Nadex. Thx @nntaleb for all you do! https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1122704840659013639 Permalink 6:41 PM – 3 May 2019
@nntalebbot “A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 PM – 2 May 2019
@awells10000 Unequivocally my absolute favorite graphic. Of all time. EVER. Brilliance by @dhavalpanchal @nntaleb @financequant #realworldrisk #bonds #longvol #convexity pic.twitter.com/T67LdksQHA Permalink 3:33 PM – 2 May 2019
@FattestFatTony Not knowin crapola is better than knowin alotta crapola… Permalink 3:25 PM – 2 May 2019
@TulsiGabbard Neocons/Neolibs & MSM all sing from the same songsheet: War war war!!! Trump never gets positive media unless he’s threatening war/carrying out military action. Today, Venezuela. Tomorrow, Iran? Cuba? Who’s next? No wonder NK won’t give up their nukes. https://tulsi.to/support ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/K4zAIk5WhN”> pic.twitter.com/K4zAIk5WhN Permalink 5:00 AM – 2 May 2019
@Jaffer22915438 Fat Tony nails it again… with plenty of characters to spare https://twitter.com/fattestfattony/status/1123753823254847493 Permalink 2:45 AM – 2 May 2019
@nntaleb Great news: @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition replicates real life by evaluating Abs[forecast-out of sample realization], not probabilities in {0,1}. Replicates accuracy in getting real life payoffs. Will revise as there is verbalistic “forecasting” (a la @Ptetlock) and M4 price. Permalink 3:31 PM – 1 May 2019
@nntaleb “If my enemies knew me better they’d hate me even more” [Bed of Procrustes] https://twitter.com/bryan_caplan/status/1123683202525216768 Permalink 1:24 PM – 1 May 2019
@JeanDmello Most of us are non-violent, only because we are outsourcing our violence. Permalink 11:39 AM – 1 May 2019
@nntaleb Bayer’s stock is not higher on the news. The market knows the EPA is full of balloney; it is aware that Monsanto wrote too many EPA memos. https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1123593364467793920 Permalink 11:13 AM – 1 May 2019
@Wolfram_Alpha Let’s kick off our anniversary with some cake! Can you figure this out? RT and reply with your answer. #WolframAlpha10 pic.twitter.com/fegGhj4kwL Permalink 10:13 AM – 1 May 2019
@nntaleb The ability to read the Economist is the reason some people get poor. “The ability to digest milk may explain how Europe got rich”… The Economist pic.twitter.com/PAOn52rRHi Permalink 8:51 AM – 1 May 2019
@Thinker_View pic.twitter.com/DmGkrVLH6n Permalink 8:30 AM – 1 May 2019
@nntaleb Celebrating the resurrection with some #skininthegame https://twitter.com/kritikopoulos/status/1123488943905955845 Permalink 6:19 AM – 1 May 2019
@nntaleb MISSPECIFYING HAYEK: Prediction markets are not commercial markets. pic.twitter.com/Fq6Ns2psbO Permalink 6:13 AM – 1 May 2019
@justinowings A case study in unintended consequences with 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order effects: 1950s: Killing mosquitoes in Borneo solved malaria problem but led to typhoid and collapsing roofs—by killing roaches, lizards, and cats, which helped caterpillars and rats. https://m.sfgate.com/homeandgarden/article/Take-a-lesson-from-Borneo-go-easy-on-the-bug-2546186.php ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ViIwztIRHz”> pic.twitter.com/ViIwztIRHz Permalink 5:54 AM – 1 May 2019
@Thinker_View On vous aime ! Merci ! pic.twitter.com/Yxtkeso5cO Permalink 4:49 AM – 1 May 2019
@nntaleb Presenting the paper in 5 min at the NY quant seminar and need a new title… pic.twitter.com/orR4nq8YgO Permalink 3:52 PM – 30 Apr 2019
@ladyinmedicine Remember when twitter suspended my account for saying “the MB is a terrorist organization”? https://twitter.com/imamofpeace/status/1123228044947120128 Permalink 9:05 AM – 30 Apr 2019
@ladyinmedicine Remember when twitter suspended my account for saying “the MB is a terrorist organization”? https://twitter.com/imamofpeace/status/1123228044947120128 Permalink 9:05 AM – 30 Apr 2019
@Jonassibony #Protosemitic *ḥimār ‘donkey’ #Akkadian imēru , #Ugaritic ḥimāru #Phoenician ḥmūr #Hebrew #Samaritan ‘émur ࠇࠌࠅࠓ #Tiberian ḥămōr חֲמוֹר #Aramaic #Syriac ḥmārā ܚܡܵܪܵܐ #Jewish ḥămārā חֲמָרָא #Arabic ḥimār حِمار #Sabaic ḥmr #asemiticwordaday Permalink 5:50 AM – 30 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Syrian refugees at ~ 25% of the pop. in Lebanon. Syria is now SAFE. But the US State Dept’s Satterfield opposes their repatriation as “it would legitimize Assad”. IYI Satterfield shd take some in his house. Shd Lebanese pay the price for HIS bone w/Assad? #SkinintheGame #Ethics pic.twitter.com/mwlramce34 Permalink 4:50 AM – 30 Apr 2019
@digvijoy_c A concept @nntaleb dedicated his life to. https://twitter.com/then_there_was/status/1122542048689524742 Permalink 9:47 PM – 29 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Which title is better? A +One Does Not Eat Forecasts B +Where are the Great Forecasters’ Yachts? Permalink 7:04 PM – 29 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Which title is better? A +One Does Not Eat Forecasts B +Where are the Great Forecasters’ Yachts? Permalink 7:04 PM – 29 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Now after the lamentations, the Great Doxology, bilingual by chanted by Greeks and Lebanese. https://youtu.be/COwJtmZ6z8Q Permalink 8:14 AM – 29 Apr 2019
@NonMeek It’s so insightful that I had to draw a rare [for me] Sunday comic strip about it. Hopefully it does your piece justice … can’t help you with the math though ;-) (0, 1) ≠ (-∞, ∞), #LudicFallacy pic.twitter.com/lHwwTF6oOg Permalink 8:06 AM – 29 Apr 2019
@kivil Ancient wisdom resonates with @nntaleb https://twitter.com/UnwobblingPivot/status/1122874664634785794 Permalink 7:51 AM – 29 Apr 2019
@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 7 +That you need to be a good “forecaster” to perform well. In fact you may NEED to be a bad forecaster to survive, get rich, etc. +Probability is a nonseparable kernel inside an integral. Most of the psych lit is BS https://www.academia.edu/38962327/_One_Does_Not_Eat_Forecasts_On_the_Difference_between_Forecasting_and_Real_Life_Payoffs?source=swp_share Permalink 5:47 AM – 29 Apr 2019
@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 6 + Lebanese is a standalone Semitic language; it and Arabic are separate languages, not mutually understandable, no matter how much the “Arabistas” try to smoke you with pseudoscientific claims. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c Permalink 5:34 AM – 29 Apr 2019
@LeesSebastian “Administrators everywhere on the planet, in all businesses and pursuits, and at all times in history, have been the plague.” – @nntaleb Re-reading SITG – This quote is fucking awesome, and rings very very true. Permalink 2:55 PM – 28 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Hanaia is Aramaic for “Abdallah” or “Ovadia” or “Theophilus” or “Amadeus”, no? https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1122577518320467969 Permalink 1:50 PM – 28 Apr 2019
@nntaleb FRIENDS, the first draft for comments. “One Does Not Eat Forecasts”: On the Difference between Forecasting and Real Life Payoffs @spyrosmakrid https://www.academia.edu/38962327/_One_Does_Not_Eat_Forecasts_On_the_Difference_between_Forecasting_and_Real_Life_Payoffs?source=swp_share via @academia Permalink 12:49 PM – 28 Apr 2019
@nntaleb FRIENDS, the first draft for comments. “One Does Not Eat Forecasts”: On the Difference between Forecasting and Real Life Payoffs @spyrosmakrid https://www.academia.edu/38962327/_One_Does_Not_Eat_Forecasts_On_the_Difference_between_Forecasting_and_Real_Life_Payoffs?source=swp_share via @academia Permalink 12:49 PM – 28 Apr 2019
@nntaleb THE GOOD NEWS OF MACHINE LEARNING: How we can replace the verbalistic “prediction” (or, worse “belief”) with a more rigorous payoff function and how ReLu or call options can express ALL nonlinear payoffs (universal approximation theorem) pic.twitter.com/Pw6PkVVP3F Permalink 12:24 PM – 28 Apr 2019
@RichardHanania The university is now an institution run by and for administrators pic.twitter.com/KxYfStgFTy Permalink 12:05 PM – 28 Apr 2019
@aaronjmate 1/ If YouTube were to recommend your show, it’d be recommending the leading purveyor of now debunked Trump-Russia conspiracy theories, falsehoods & innuendo of the last 2+ years. Here’s a sample: Permalink 10:23 AM – 28 Apr 2019
@nntaleb How to commit statistical BS-vending and not realize it. Please keep journos out of “slopes” and “trends” (as well as other things) (The slope is a random variable with high variance) https://twitter.com/ritholtz/status/1122441842719481857 Permalink 8:09 AM – 28 Apr 2019
@TalebWisdom “AN ENEMY is someone in a zero-sum game, the representation bureaucrats, geopoliticians, journos & low-IQ pol “scientists” have of the world. A COMPETITOR is someone who helps the system stay non-zero sum & prevents monopolies.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 4:33 AM – 28 Apr 2019
@amaltaash (34/35) General Two gems from @nntaleb: -Never compare thin-tailed variables with fat-tailed ones: e.g. # of ppl dying in their bathtubs vs killed by terrorists per year. -IQ is a filter at the low end, to help figure out if someone has a learning/thinking disability. That’s it Permalink 2:12 AM – 28 Apr 2019
@Jaffer22915438 Guru, this is exactly my point about Fake News. Bottom up fake news is better than authoritarian top down fake news… Permalink 2:57 PM – 27 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Meanwhile how Orthodox Christians in North Syria celebrate the resurrection: https://youtu.be/Z1aQKTqVpeY Permalink 2:32 PM – 27 Apr 2019
@nntaleb SECOND DISCLAIMER: The victim was arrested at 16, beheaded at 21. Permalink 2:22 PM – 27 Apr 2019
@nntaleb And Saudi Barbaria beheaded a total of 37 people, one of whom was crucified. Permalink 10:54 AM – 27 Apr 2019
@nntaleb DISCLAIMER: It appears that the picture comes from a different execution (perhaps ISIS, another Wahabi group). But Saudi Barbaria effectively executed a 16 y.o. Shiite by beheading. Permalink 10:06 AM – 27 Apr 2019
@nntaleb A Shiite 16-Year-Old https://twitter.com/RonPaulInstitut/status/1122177096456048641 Permalink 9:43 AM – 27 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Χριστός ἀνέστη! Permalink 6:35 AM – 27 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Some have serious reading comprehension. The point is not that Obama did nothing scandalous. The point is that he was NOT caught or the media did not make a big deal. (Sorry, but I block idiots to avoid degrading the discussion. Nothing personal). Permalink 6:32 AM – 27 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Obama had no scandal, behaved w/dignity & extreme decorum. But -Increased centralization, bureaucratism, faught federalism -Crony capitalism, bankers > $$ than 2006 -Intrusive state w/evil nudgeboys Sunstein/Thaler, IYIs -Blew up Lybia, Syria, exterminated Syrian Christians… https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1113523235503706112 Permalink 6:01 AM – 27 Apr 2019
@nntaleb A book is summarizable degree n when the 2nd, 3rd,…, up the nth reading reveal things you did not get at the first reading. (A book is summarizable degree 0 when the first reading reveals nothing you didn’t get by not reading.) Permalink 5:17 AM – 27 Apr 2019
@nntaleb AXION ESTIN! Good Friday Chants in Graeco-Arabic, the 3 Stasis. At 7:44 the Generation chant that ancestors have been reciting for almost 2 millennia, promising to pass on to the next generation. https://youtu.be/6QWhBaQ25Kk via @YouTube Permalink 1:18 PM – 26 Apr 2019
@nntaleb (Today is Orthodox Good Friday) Another Greco-Arabic chant from Lebanon https://youtu.be/_-EB6g5pIbA Permalink 11:27 AM – 26 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Megali Paraskevi in Greco-Arabic. Fairuz- Η ζωή εν τάφω https://youtu.be/xiE-biR9USU via @YouTube Permalink 10:17 AM – 26 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Which also explains why Mr @WGoetzman (a “finance” professor) has a severe technical flaw in almost all of his work involving tails & investor “belief”. Among other problems of course. https://twitter.com/WGoetzmann/status/730379452169867264 Permalink 7:36 AM – 26 Apr 2019
@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Bastiat #SeenAndUnseen pic.twitter.com/KxSzxJfAvI Permalink 6:56 AM – 26 Apr 2019
@thackerpd .@Reuters editor @williamsmjw says he stands behind Kelland’s reporting, as does “Ethics Editor” @AlixFreedman This is a joke. @duffwilson @AmandaBecker @aterkel @cgseife @charlesornstein @CharlesPPierce @sfoucart @jackshafer @mlcalderone https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1121766540372791296 Permalink 6:25 AM – 26 Apr 2019
@mikeandallie A happy accident this morning as @nntaleb shares a paper on the exact topic I’m staring at my screen thinking about. pic.twitter.com/OYM6NReNCx Permalink 6:08 AM – 26 Apr 2019
@nntaleb You don’t see much of the snow from Beirut itself, you need to be >½ mile away from the Phoenician coast. Permalink 5:57 AM – 26 Apr 2019
@nntaleb (cont) pic.twitter.com/id9nVTVQm9 Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Renamed the paper: “One Cannot Eat Forecasts”. New version. pic.twitter.com/BLRxp3Wzsv Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Religio as counter to superstitio https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e Permalink 1:26 PM – 25 Apr 2019
@jeitoapp Bar in London that won “just about every award going” closes less than 1 year after. Where did I hear this before? #SkinInTheGame @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/9KERqJSnCV Permalink 10:49 AM – 25 Apr 2019
@NonMeek Circular reasoning is still reasoning. The inherent circularity of #IQ scores captured in a cartoon strip and a @nntaleb tweet [IQ correlates, part 3 of x]. #psychology #psychometrics pic.twitter.com/EelH5YSidV Permalink 9:59 AM – 25 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Scientific papers should be written like car manuals. No prose, just precision. Showing psychologists have NO IDEA about “overestimation” of tail probabilities, (technical version of my lecktshur at the great @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition). pic.twitter.com/DXUbsMTV4F Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Beirut seen from the water. The Phoenician coast below Mount Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/S7YAGWqpsF Permalink 8:26 AM – 25 Apr 2019
@JamesMarsh79 Proves @nntaleb point. Large caps skewed to downside and small to the upside https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1121395240257097728 Permalink 8:11 AM – 25 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Our precautionary principle tried to show this possibility to GMO idiots who believe that science=scientism. https://twitter.com/nature/status/1121227592475000832 Permalink 4:24 AM – 25 Apr 2019
@nntaleb No kidding? https://twitter.com/nature/status/1121227592475000832 Permalink 1:37 AM – 25 Apr 2019
@nntaleb No butter! Permalink 5:45 PM – 24 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Two more days of Orthodox lent: vegan. Antonio Spadaro does wonders with the basic ingredients. pic.twitter.com/QYs4MPD282 Permalink 5:44 PM – 24 Apr 2019
@TarekMilleron Muilenburg’s denial of fault is hollow. Would he put his family on the “old” #737max, with randomly-selected 737-rated commercial pilots, bust off the relevant angle-of-attack sensor and take off? Repeat x10? No #skininthegame yet he subjected passengers and crew to that risk. Permalink 5:25 PM – 24 Apr 2019
@normonics This is enlightening. In fat-tailed domain conditional expectation is greater than conditional threshold K this drags one’s exposure even further into the tails, breaking the simplistic assumptions that provide pseudo-sophistication of recipe-users https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1121033494623334400 Permalink 12:08 PM – 24 Apr 2019
@nntaleb For example: why we humans do NOT overestimate small probabilities as stated in most cases. pic.twitter.com/Z2ScOIajt0 Permalink 5:49 AM – 24 Apr 2019
@nntaleb What to study in college? What doesn’t bore you. (but the waist is still too thin) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1121029802792714240 Permalink 5:48 AM – 24 Apr 2019
@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #college #guidance #counselor pic.twitter.com/6QVhXWpFaj Permalink 5:35 AM – 24 Apr 2019
@TheBondFreak @nntaleb, seems she’s getting it right. https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1121025866501279744 Permalink 5:28 AM – 24 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Psychologists and Probability Why there is no “overestimation” of small probabilities (in most cases) and psychologists misunderstood the real distributions. PARANOIA pays! pic.twitter.com/ZyZ2eMIp2i Permalink 5:05 AM – 24 Apr 2019
@InvestorSwedish @nntaleb thanks a million for your Incerto series! It’s been great for questioning much that I’ve previously been taking for granted – for investing, and life in general, too. Here’s my humble contribution to your paradigm-challenging series: https://youtu.be/Av7kpPJqac0 via @YouTube Permalink 3:55 AM – 24 Apr 2019
@nntaleb Delenda Saudi Barbaria https://twitter.com/marwa__osman/status/1120871400263356417 Permalink 3:33 AM – 24 Apr 2019
@focusontheb This is one of @nntaleb’s points that seems hard for a lot of people (me too!) to grasp: if something works, it can’t really be considered dumb. “Oh Mike! You misspelled that word!” “Oh Mike! How do you get so much engagement?” Same person Permalink 2:38 AM – 24 Apr 2019
@Steve_Sailer In the Current Year, do any lectures on “Whiteness” not consist of racist hate speech? Perhaps the keynote address at a convention of laundry detergent chemists? @wmarybeard https://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/1112309521702178817 Permalink 3:47 PM – 23 Apr 2019
