Tag Archives: Trump

P Values, Deadlift, Precautionary Principle, Trump, Virtue, Kapish?

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@nntaleb In high frequ quant finance we use >10^6 data points & nobody knows pvalue. Psychologists trying to get away with 10https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/717366620331618304   Permalink 7:02 PM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Normal humans can learn from Iraq and Lybia. Journalism became the last refuge for those with brain defects.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/717880860066856960   Permalink 6:56 PM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My Skin in the Game WIPhttps://twitter.com/evonomicsmag/status/717556674559668224   Permalink 4:03 AM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Por primera vez, texto en español [Bogota]https://twitter.com/luiscano/status/717442396473135104   Permalink 2:54 PM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb To paraphrase Yogi Bera, 90% of deadlifting is mental; the other half is physical. Permalink 8:13 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Meanwhile a 80% power for a test and 5% p-value aren’t science.Pick a large n & fughedaoudit http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf  pic.twitter.com/SUMZ6zCBeA Permalink 8:01 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Instead of risking Max deadlift, easier to figure it out from max{lbs: 3 reps <=failure}. @Pete_Spence @georgepearkes Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb in lbs of course. Permalink 6:32 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What is the max deadlift for a noncompetitive flaneur like me (adj. by age group) that would be considered decent? Permalink 6:29 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@esalazar_y There are only two people missing #Seneca and #FatTony @nntalebpic.twitter.com/aojYNa4QNk Permalink 6:37 PM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Precautionary Principle Simplified: Started rewriting @yaneerbaryam @normonics @RupertReadpic.twitter.com/i12VkJn8WC Permalink 11:40 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@kupiako @nntaleb @DontFadeeMeBro And his father died in 1999 Permalink 7:28 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Main diff betw. Trump and Fat Tony: 1) His FatToniness doesn’t like publicity, 2) Fat Tony wouldn’t marry a model.https://twitter.com/UncleDario1/status/716995760181616641   Permalink 7:30 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Also Trump had 4 siblings. @DontFadeeMeBro Permalink 7:26 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I only trust people who don’t care about their reputation. Virtue ethics is about acts of virtue even if they come with negative reward. Permalink 7:25 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb That is a myth about Trump’s inheritance. Work the numbers of cohort of others who have inherited.https://twitter.com/gweirydd/status/716993004096077824   Permalink 7:20 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal: Rediscovers scaling laws, how fragility increases with size.pic.twitter.com/55uXlT5XwD Permalink 7:15 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 305): Politicians sh**t scared of the press.pic.twitter.com/ZwM5grWlsV Permalink 7:11 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (pp. 282-283): How consultants & executives don’t hold a candle to someone w/ #SITGpic.twitter.com/24nofJ5AcN Permalink 7:08 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “To me, committees are what insecure people create in order to put off making hard decisions.” Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 281) Permalink 7:05 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My hobby is busting bullshitters @iandavidmorris, a la Feynman: “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”https://twitter.com/Priapus_D/status/716972631925387264   Permalink 6:04 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The fellow did not break the truth: comments in prnthss which is NOT standard but NOT unethical. Kapish? @semperfidem2004 @iandavidmorris Permalink 3:04 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In real science it is not about whether the scientist has the right standards; it is about his THEORY. Kapish? @homophonous @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:19 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) which is why Lux.’s theory is a valid hunch; disproofs are unrigorous w/absence of evidence fallacies. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:08 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1/Every Arabic speaker who had to memorize poetry knows that pre-Islamic vocabulary is v. different from Q. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:05 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@republicofmath MT @MathFour Engineers think equations approx reality. Physicists think reality approx equations. Mathematicians know equations are reality Permalink 11:31 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) So in spite of his solecism I find him closer to the SUBSTANCE of the subject matter than your elaborate nitpicking @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:40 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) As I said he knew enough Syriac to have detected the problem and confused Payne Smith for his daughter’s translation. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:38 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb His “sparkle” is in Payne. Check again. Attacking someone’s thesis on his etiquette is failing us: we care about the truth @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:20 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Finally, in my world (science, search for truth), scholarship is about SUBSTANCE, not trifles. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:16 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What makes me doubt your scholarship is that the fact that you did not check if the language was from Payne, not his own. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:15 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You are conflating breach of ethics & breach of the etiquette of a research milieu. By nitpicking, you reinforced his thesis.@iandavidmorris Permalink 11:56 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 If it weren’t for Obama, Shillary Clinton wd have transformed Damascus into an AlQaeda or ISIS Base. Keep her on the lecture circuit. Permalink 9:33 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We need to keep Shillary out of the White House. Whatever it takes, even if it means having a robot as president.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/716644245977899008   Permalink 9:24 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary: Anything that has an infinite (or “long”) shelf life (i.e. “sustainable”) falls under Precautionary Pple.pic.twitter.com/55pwCgaJM0 Permalink 6:55 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I think I got the p-hacking distribution & given no outcry by psych trolls it isn’t a “rediscovery”. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   @learnfromerror Permalink 3:13 PM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nobody can explain why the neocons are buying that Saudi Barbaria is helping Syria to become democratic. Is neocon a result of brain damage? Permalink 2:45 PM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If all progress is innovation, all innovation is not progress. As a matter of fact, 99.9% of innovations fail. @sarah_cone @uistbhoy88 Permalink 9:39 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that hotshot architects try to impress other architects and we are left paying the price. #noskininthegame Permalink 7:52 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Rainy Saturday: density of the preimage of the power of test. Concavity of measure, mean is lower than orig powerpic.twitter.com/mKd3T2CyNR Permalink 7:49 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Sadly, when a gentle, low-testosterone looking person promotes peace, he is much less convincing than a warrior-looking bully. Permalink 6:45 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that, unlike with fashion, music or cinema, fads leave a permanent scar. Permalink 4:59 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This summer I want to learn a new language. Which sequence is preferable? (Urdu as proxy for Hindi for script). Permalink 2:49 PM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Metadistribution: The dist of the pre-image of a power of a test. In other words, Power is as BS as P-Value.pic.twitter.com/xAGvyuqmjk Permalink 1:08 PM – 1 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms You know you’re a sectarian fraud when you say Assad must go for humanitarian reasons while cheering the Saudi-led carpet-bombing in Yemen. Permalink 2:24 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb P-value is a stochastic measure. Stochastic measures are not measures. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   @dsquareddigest Permalink 11:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fixed! @SandrewFinancepic.twitter.com/fWj8wc5z5F Permalink 11:01 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Connecting the Precautionary PPle to Peters and Gell-Mann(2015); something MISSED by the idiots in decision theory.pic.twitter.com/sOplMWr1we Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We are reframing the MINI CERTIFICATE IN RISK TAKING as risk management is back office, risk taking is front office. http://realworldrisk.com/inaugural_program_comments   Permalink 8:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@garyruskin Then: #Monsanto hid the truth about PCBs http://bit.ly/1C6Gupx  . Now: Monsanto says “Roundup Is Not A Carcinogen” http://wbur.fm/1MZz35R   Permalink 6:12 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary of philosophical approach to the inverse problem (in Silent Risk).pic.twitter.com/Sw3BQt1kvW Permalink 6:05 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The precautionary principle papers: No, there is no *scientific* evidence “GMO” are safe http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  pic.twitter.com/d08P8gYtLr Permalink 4:25 AM – 1 Apr 2016

Nice/Nasty, Inequality, SITG, P-Hacking, Easter, Syria, Palmyra, Shillary, Trump, Saunders | Twitter

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@nntaleb My rule: when people are nice, I am twice as nice to them. When nasty, a thousand times nastier. @lakens @sothisispietro Permalink 11:44 AM – 28 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Friends, need to find errors in this paper before posting on ArXiv. Busts current measurement of inequality https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/GINI-1.pdf   Permalink 7:49 AM – 28 Mar 2016

@nntaleb DC pundits stick to minor variations around a (false) narrative, owing to lack of 1)courage,2) #skininthegame, 3) IQ https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/714422281372639232   Permalink 5:10 AM – 28 Mar 2016

@nntaleb You start by gratuitously trolling me saying you taught undergrads my meta-dist (you didn’t) & now you think you could be “helpful”? @lakens Permalink 4:44 AM – 28 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Donaldo, minor detail: this is not quite ISIS; nevertheless you will do better than Shillary. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/714264864575922177   Permalink 6:49 PM – 27 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Pulled out the explicit “p-hacking” formula. New version of paper. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   pic.twitter.com/0gRwP7jhQw Permalink 4:12 PM – 27 Mar 2016

@adolfont The wise approach to markets is to consider them smarter than governments yet profoundly stupid… @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/IUBOFaN0dO Permalink 12:26 PM – 27 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms .@octavianasr The media did even worse job covering Syria conflict than the decision to remove Saddam; on Syria, it had access to more info. Permalink 7:53 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Happy Easter for those who celebrate now. The Orthodox Church will celebrate in 5 weeks. pic.twitter.com/x2VQl1layy Permalink 7:35 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms It’s been so lonely over Twitter the past few years getting accused of being a troll for stating the basic facts on Syria. Thanks #Palmyra. Permalink 6:20 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms Which pundits get the most (dis)credit for convincing Western media the Syrian & Russian militaries are in cahoots with IS & don’t fight IS? Permalink 5:53 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@PieterDuboisFI @nntaleb-isation of software development https://twitter.com/BetaList/status/714047126892843009   Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Mar 2016

@aarondwarwick @nntaleb thanks for pointing us to @MaxAbrahms a couple months ago. Top notch! Permalink 4:55 PM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Nobody is talking about the exciting news of ISIS thrown out of Palmyra. Why? Alas easy to figure out. Permalink 4:53 PM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb ”Sometimes your best investments are the ones you don’t make.” Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal Permalink 3:15 PM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb And instead of playing smart ass as a scientist you could have answer led my quest for the search of antecedents @lakens Permalink 9:46 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Where is the probability distribution? An equation is usually an equation with derivations. @lakens Permalink 9:33 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb And I am taking about rigorous probability theory not handwaving looping psychological discourse. @lakens Permalink 9:24 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Mr lakens i am talking about exact metadistibution of p-val. @lakens This is clear and precise. Show me. Permalink 9:22 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb You still need to back up your accusation of claiming to “reinvent” pval dist before asking more questions.@lakens https://twitter.com/lakens/status/713758346973679616   Permalink 9:15 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The US president cannot change much except foreign interventionism. Incl taxes. Kapish? @sleuthstock @BernieSanders Permalink 8:14 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb This said I far prefer @BernieSanders to Trump but absolutely no Hillary. No Hillary, no SHillary. Permalink 7:44 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Reading Trump all I see is protect your downside (unknown) risks. What’s behind the bluster is Fat Tony compatible. pic.twitter.com/6OyroXQ8qc Permalink 7:35 AM – 26 Mar 2016

@MaxAbrahms Loving the spin to minimize Syrian/Russian military achievements against ISIS: https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/713709476830797825  . Permalink 7:13 AM – 26 Mar 2016

P-Values, Trump, Maximum Entropy Methods, Kahneman, Lindy Effect | Twitter

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@nntaleb In addition to the metadistribution of p-values, a technique for large scale simulations via Radon-Nikodym deriv https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Radon%20Nikodym%20Monte%20Carlo.nb.pdf   Permalink 12:23 PM – 14 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Sicilian squid ink at Taormina in London. pic.twitter.com/OIzC6vojNq Permalink 6:29 AM – 14 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Some people, when they change language, if they don’t have an accent in it, also change personality. Permalink 4:57 AM – 14 Mar 2016

@nntaleb I don’t take face value @limitlesskait @realDonaldTrump @nytimes Permalink 12:08 PM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Donaldo, tell us something we don’t know. BTW,Trump wass loved by his butlers while Hillary was hated by bodyguards. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/709089928324489216   Permalink 12:03 PM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Proud of being gentle with the waiter & tough with powerful ass***les rather than reverse. https://www.facebook.com/johnfaithful.hamer/posts/10153499619627683?pnref=story   pic.twitter.com/sdCggdk3D7 Permalink 11:28 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The metadistribution of the p-value and the #replicationcrisis https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/p-val.pdf   Permalink 8:22 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb To summarize from above, P-values are highly stochastic and the metadistribution is not factored in. Compiling notes. #replicationcrisis Permalink 7:58 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@ModeledBehavior Scary final act twist would be Trump successfully runs to the middle & before it’s too late Democrats realize he’s burning down both parties Permalink 7:05 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb (cont) More rigorous proof via Maximum Entropy Methods give a truncated exponential that mimics a beta. pic.twitter.com/caKFyoYtq1 Permalink 7:02 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Answer to QUIZ du JOUR: The Distribution of a P-Value. Psychologists seem to ignore p is stochastic! pic.twitter.com/wWnYkB4SEk Permalink 3:05 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Reader:”I have read all your books. How do you recommend an average young man navigate the modern world? “. Me:”Never ask a vague question”. Permalink 1:25 AM – 13 Mar 2016

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR. What is the probabilisty distribution of a P-Value? (may be offline for 16 hours please put answer in tweet) Permalink 3:09 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb 1) You remove segment of samples and redo P-Values to ensure stability:ignore P, it is its fragility (convexity) @learnfromerror @alxpr1c3 Permalink 3:02 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb The only solid use I found for P-Values is a test of robustness across jacknife (here 1-p) @learnfromerror @alxpr1c3 pic.twitter.com/1k3Yko2wyl Permalink 2:54 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb My catalogue of how what is robust in psychology today needs to abide by #LindyEffect https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/708776124441042946   Permalink 2:08 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@zerohedge Nassim Taleb Sums Up America’s Election In 17 “Black Swan” Words http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-12/nassim-taleb-sums-americas-election-17-black-swan-words   Permalink 12:36 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb Kahneman is exceptionally scientific as work matches the #LindyEffect . I don’t see him as a psychologist but a decision-theorist. @RiberJan Permalink 12:32 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@nntaleb It turned out Mr Waugh was spreading rumors of “climate denial” in 2009 & he will not escape. @neilchriss @paulwaugh @PCollinsTimes Permalink 12:00 PM – 12 Mar 2016

@aral Abject moral failure illustrated in 140 characters. https://twitter.com/JohnKerry/status/708368631508262913   Permalink 6:38 AM – 12 Mar 2016

Silent Risk, Pascal’s Wager, Baal, Skin In the Game, Trump, Clinton-Malmaison, Gary Ruskin, Popper

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AN INVITATION TO CONTRIBUTE (Facebook)
Friends, I promised to deliver in the next few hours a discussion of the most neglected fragilities and the most overestimated risks. We can tell fragility when we see it… but we first need to look at it.

I won’t say for now what I came up with but would love for you to contribute suggestions. Don’t be shy, don’t be afraid to be out there, but please observe salon rules. And, for Baal’s sake, let’s all be brief.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/681574436768722944

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/681562381412102146

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/681482579313324032

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/681153169313935360

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/681128896952164352

Friends, we made a page for the precautionary principle (Facbook) with application to GMOs, with a variety of articles.

1) It looks like PR promoters/smear campaigners are so dumb that they don’t know that we know that they are dumb.

2) Calling GMOs “transgenics” (moving genes from one organism to a different one) better reflects their nature as genetic modification is too vague a designation.

http://fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/680879127457624064

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/680843010389741568

 

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/680738137237229568

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/680465658807738368

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/680403721361162240

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/680368473663520768

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/680368178317389824

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/680063562065276929

What I think is my central piece from *Skin in the Game* (Facebook) explaining risk-loving and precaution can live together, how risk taking has a distinct logic (similar to quantum logic)… Risk management is boring, risk taking is exciting; how the two can be reconciled. How can we reconcile Aristotelian precaution and courage, both considered virtues?

www.fooledbyrandomness.com/rationality.pdf

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/679701305154244610

A book isn’t just its contents; it’s a state of mind. (Facebook)
—
Note: Without a state of mind, a book never survives. Also note that *almost* no book from 15 years ago has survived.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/679357806407995392

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/679336090583629824

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/679273397340217344

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/679092660427206656

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/679091924859543552

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/679006823228284929

Friends, this is technical. (Facebook) Here is the “Statistical Estimators Under Fat Tails Project” and my small contribution to it during 2015 (7 papers). One can see that very little has been done to understand random events under Extremistan and there is a lot, a lot to do.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/FatTailedpapers2015.pdf

Social networks are a great place for convex optionality. (Facebook) In 2015, I met three collaborators, two co-authors (one probabilist, one economist who specializes in inequality) and one business partner on Twitter (a partner with the Real World Risk Institute). I do not think that I would have been able to initially run into these three collaborators in the physical world, no matter how many parties I had attended (I attended a lot, a lot of parties in 2015). You can tell from people’s twitter conversation whether there can be a possible technical collaboration.

Ironically these technical matches revealed themselves through arguments during fights in my antiBS crusades (such as the Pinker-BS problem). Social life (physical, that is) is too harmonious, too devoid of fights and arguments for some skills to be made apparent.

Popperian Science, Mimi Sheraton, Academic Freedom, Trump

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https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/627104147456679936

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/627069773059260416

1,000 Foods To Eat Before You Die: A Food Lover’s Life List (Paperback)

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/627068479183716352

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/626385993562763264

The death of Popperian Science. Culprits: Media and Science Journos. pic.twitter.com/b9G5BZXE02

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) July 31, 2015
Discussing longevity (#lindyeffect) w/@mimisheraton food critic for 65 y. Review of her book. amazon.com/review/R… pic.twitter.com/jdhEnnBnsa

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) July 31, 2015
1,000 Foods To Eat Before You Die: A Food Lover’s Life List (Paperback)

Was asked to define academic freedom: 1) “F*** you money”, 2) have most of your friends outside academia, 3) work in cafés. Allways been so.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) July 31, 2015
This is the tragedy. That the only non-fake politician is a lunatic. twitter.com/NKondrat…

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) July 29, 2015