Tag Archives: Nate Silver

Harris, Shermer, Reviews, SKIN IN THE GAME, John Gray, Gini Estimation, Nate Silver, Alexander Bogomolny, Tetlock, Thaler | Twitter

@nntaleb Squid Ink pic.twitter.com/gmv3tadPcm Permalink 4:46 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) For some background, BS Vendor Sam Harris called me “insufferable”, then tried to make friends, then called me “insufferable” again after I refused (I am intolerant of BS). Permalink 2:42 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@BogeJan Calling @nntaleb arrogant because he calls you out on your BS is complete f-ing horseshit. He is extremely friendly and down to earth. He took the time to chat with me, a random fan, for a long time while he was visiting Norway, and even paid for my lunch! Opposite of arrogant! Permalink 2:17 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Gabish is the recreated pronounciation of Siculo-Galabrez (Calabrese); the “p” used to sound like a “b” and the “g” like a Semitic kof, a hard K, from Punic. Much like capicoli is “gabagool”. Gabish? Permalink 1:48 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb When I see fraud I say fraud. When I see BS I shout BS. NO intimidation, no smear campaign, no mobbing by fraudsters like Shermer, Harris et al. will make me stop. The more RISK I take for my opinions, the more HONORABLE I feel. #SkinintheGame. Gabish?https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/967825791416385536   Permalink 12:42 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Just to insist that those Arabists who say that there was no such thing as Phoenicia as a placename are also probably not aware of the existence of such things as ancient authors. Permalink 11:56 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Pliny’s Natural History called the Levant strip “The Phoenician Sea”. Arabs later called the Med بحر الروم but like the “Persian” Gulf (=>”Arabian”) the name got redacted from texts. Brilliant idea @BellesLettresEd: superposed not juxtaposed bilingual txts pic.twitter.com/xrFwQMYOUu Permalink 11:45 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@SindreSN As a person working in credit risk management I could easily just look at @nntaleb’s books as insulting. But «insults» that are well argued for, thought through and accompanied by real life examples are the most valuable input I can get.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/967784283174817793   Permalink 9:38 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I just published “The Controversy around Skin in the Game”https://medium.com/p/the-controversy-around-skin-in-the-game-6d46416ee47f   Permalink 8:16 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And Phil Coggan @econbuttonwood is thoughtful but didn’t realize my style has… not changed from when my message was better for him. I have always been iconoclastic –except my target is now journos. pic.twitter.com/QspWMY5qmi Permalink 7:32 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Actually, I just read the review line by line. Idiot-Shermer cherry-picks because the article continues: “All this is a shame, because the first, submerged Mr Taleb is still audible, and still has interesting things to say. ” Permalink 7:16 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb To explain it in my terms: the selfish gene is NOT necessarily ergodic (in practice will almost never be). Group selection is. Permalink 6:49 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb E.O. Wilson calls Dawkins a journalist, particularly after the reaction to the @DrMANowak paper: Dawkins & Pinker ignored the math. Shermer is a BS vendor; he doesn’t know science is based on rigor & statistical significance not multiplication of anecdotal descriptive graphs. Permalink 6:43 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath The lost boarding pass. An old question but with an upcoming follow-up https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/LostPass.shtml   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/C7QokxE7AN”>  pic.twitter.com/C7QokxE7AN Permalink 5:31 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb We can even track Roman genes in England … from US populations. Very exciting times for data scientists. pic.twitter.com/q7yDIUChd6 Permalink 5:07 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb You will notice that Phoenicians (mainly J2a) are not “Semitic”. Languages follow minority rules. Needs to add some Natufians as they may not all be haplo E. Permalink 5:04 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Science, History, Culture, & (soon) probability at their best: rigorous tracking of ancient populations through genes. Dates will change as many are sequencing individuals from archeological sites. Will be improved with inf. theory/probabilistic methods Here IJ haplogroups pic.twitter.com/7Q0Egn4E0k Permalink 4:59 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In all fairness, @johngapper agrees mainly with the point and find the book entertaining (adding this), but I could not resist playing with his “flaw” Permalink 4:02 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And Zoe Williams, @zoesqwilliams should not put on public display a deficit in reading comprehension. pic.twitter.com/DHqxailG0u Permalink 3:48 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Starting here a thread putting some skin in the game of journos reviewing Skin in the Game. We start with @johngapper at the @FT. pic.twitter.com/vNDnyOcGtX Permalink 3:31 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I was polite I did not call them more accurately BS vendors. Gabish, @michaelshermer?https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/967584346319216640   Permalink 6:54 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@jordanbpeterson These are very much the points I was trying to make (with some success) when I spoke twice with @samharrisorg : @nntalebhttps://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 5:19 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Project Syndicate @ProSyn confirms they removed Henry Miller’s @henryImiller articles from their site. Permalink 1:25 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining the curse of dimensionality (and why it makes errors grow rapidly, hence impossible to see high dimensional effects even from known causes) #GMOs #DelendaMonsanto pic.twitter.com/ZQAPgIM3ri Permalink 1:15 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is the answer @CutTheKnotMath : As we add dimensions, something counterintuitive: the “half” space shrinks to …ZERO. This is the curse of dimensionality behind p!=np we used with GMO idiots.https://twitter.com/MarcosCarreira/status/967499284609490946   Permalink 12:57 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lebanese traditional peasant dress. East Med., even Balkan.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/967487879940362240   Permalink 12:20 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@TMFStoffel If I only had 2 minutes to capture the essence of @nntaleb’s Skin In The Game, it would be this clip, especially the end, when the lawyer goes to drink the water. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGX4nMrnxg0   #SkinInTheGame Permalink 11:19 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb By the way our argument (counter to what Monsanto shiils are claiming) is not against insulin GM and things “in the box” with low-dimensionality/known effects. Permalink 10:56 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is the link to the lecktchurhttps://twitter.com/BNUnionSquareNY/status/967463517044510720   Permalink 10:50 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am retweeting this gem from @cutheknotmath because: as you go into higher dimensions, things happen… It explains our dimensionality argument againt ignorant GMO proponents and their unrigorous “science”.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/967391308963819520   Permalink 8:46 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Dear @HooverInst, can you please explain why you have taken no disciplinary action about @henryImiller’s case of scientific fraud? Should I take it up higher with @Stanford U.? Please let me know (as you know I will not give up.) cc: @EconTalker @nfergus Permalink 7:57 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 6) On the other hand, we can use science to debunk bogus historical claims using genetics and probabilistic methods. Permalink 5:15 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 5) The graph from Skin in the Game. This explains why people like charlatan Sam Harris BSing make “scientific” claims that are not covered by science. pic.twitter.com/1ic721A5TB Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I see the reason Matthew Syed @matthewsyed did not feel hostile towards Skin in the Game and yours truly: He was a doer become writing about things. Also, he may have some understanding of Shiism and minorities. Permalink 3:52 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The TIMES has a real review, first one in which the journalist doesn’t try to take revenge against author for dissing his profession.https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/review-skin-in-the-game-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb-down-with-the-intellectual-idiots-f2hp5gvd3   Permalink 2:42 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Omission is not symmetric to commission in the real world; only in pseudophilosophical parables. Permalink 3:04 PM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams is finally discovering that Skin in the Game means you can’t write a BS book review without SITG; don’t be surprised that the author is now capable of making you personally pay for it –and for a lonnnnnnnnng time.https://twitter.com/zoesqwilliams/status/966622916065587201   Permalink 11:20 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The author of the article (cc: @econbuttonwood ) didn’t get that SKIN IN THE GAME => if you are IN FAVOR of any such intervention (Lybia), you need to go live there in case it fails or pay SOME penalty. Via Negativa is Not symmetric. Journos have a tough time with clear concepts.https://twitter.com/BisayaFilms/status/967084583098376193   Permalink 9:14 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My New York book Lecktchur. The only lecktchur in the US. pic.twitter.com/Z4t4FV8Otg Permalink 9:10 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb That’s pure BS. BS. Jesus would have looked like some Southern European or a Turk, not a “Middle Eastern” https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4   Genetic evidence w/@PZallouahttps://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/967067244462133250   Permalink 8:10 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Indeed @DToshkov this is just redoing what @DrCirillo and I did. It wasn’t needed & has no scientific innovation (in creating estimators & historiographical tools). But it does confirms that @sapinker is a bullshitter.https://twitter.com/DToshkov/status/967023211966853121   Permalink 5:16 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 4) Progress, like evolution, must be neither too slow nor too fast. Too slow means extinction from lack of adaptation. Too fast prevents retaining the benefits of past improvements, hence, again, extinction. Permalink 4:12 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) Let me rephrase for the slow at getting it. If you do not treat Tradition as (high dimensional) “experience”, you stand against science and statistical significance –the spine of experimental science. What has worked 10^10 times >>> some psych paper with 60% repl. error Permalink 3:42 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My section on rationality vs BS vending in Skin in the Gamehttps://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 2:59 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb “Science and reason is the best we have” is a statement that is both pseudoscientific & irrational. It conflates science and scientism. Science is rigorous, makes no claims outside a v. narrow domain. “Tradition, risk management, and Skin in the Game is the best we have”. Permalink 2:57 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Someone said the debate was @sapinker Pinker against me. I am done after the statstcs part. Closed. The debate (if any) is non-erudite Pinker against uber-erudite John Gray. Permalink 3:01 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb John Gray is the GIANT.https://twitter.com/JasonCowleyNS/status/966658224484225024   Permalink 2:12 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Markov Chain approach pic.twitter.com/RYVxzpxr6h Permalink 2:10 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Expectation of the Largest Number https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/ExpectationOfMaximum.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zM2T8rePxK”>  pic.twitter.com/zM2T8rePxK Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams conflates skin in the game & incentives. Skin in the game is ABOUT downside risk. “chief executives and shareholders who want values maximised – people whose skin is very much in the game of driving down wages.” Got it backwards! Pitiful. Permalink 8:04 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams also conflates skin in the game with conflict of interest (“mothers of murdered children”). How can one be so ignorant? A strange density of egregious mistakes per line in a book review… Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If you are observing (Greek) Orthodox Lent, (vegan except for, strangely, crustaceous), something easy in Med/an olive oil country, & you find yourself traveling in a butter country where everything has dairy products Permalink 5:03 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The other blatant violation of “Political Correctness” in the @guardian no less: So be cause I am naturalized not native to the West I don’t have skin in the game? WTF is this? Permalink 4:22 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@MicMarsSays “CEOs and shareholders who want values maximised–people whose skin is very much in the game of driving down wages.” 1. Entrepreneurs have Skin-in-the-Game as doers 2. CEOs & shareholders are risk TRANSFERERS 3. Your conclusion inverts Taleb, as risk-transfer disenthralls Permalink 3:31 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb As a Lebanese Christian and given that we Levantine minorities are the main victims of Jihadis, I find Ms Zoe Williams’ claim about my absence of skin in the game w/the West very ignorant and, mostly, very very insensitive. Permalink 3:23 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Susan, being an author is not needed for symmetry. Symmetry is in what she is experiencing now, accountability for bullshitting in a book review. Permalink 3:17 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 I reviewed the main ideas of #SkinInTheGame on my twitter in this thread if anyone wants to readhttps://twitter.com/douglas9162/status/965968383736008704   Permalink 2:50 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@PostTruthSerum A list of British aircraft losses in Falklands shows that 25 out of the 35 aircraft lost were helicopters and 10 were fixed wing. pic.twitter.com/bK8f9y0CCo Permalink 2:10 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nitpicker nitpiked Dear @zoesqwilliams: Tks for the review. But if you want to nitpick, make sure you don’t make DISCONCERTING mistakes. 1) Learn something about vulnerability of helicopters 2) Minority rule is driven by manufacturing (bundling) 3) …https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/feb/22/skin-in-the-game-nassim-nicholas-taleb-review?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet   Permalink 1:55 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dan Sitaru’s Inequality with a Double Integral https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/InequalityWithDoubleIntegral.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZTw5yGzaEo”>  pic.twitter.com/ZTw5yGzaEo Permalink 6:19 AM – 21 Feb 2018

@gappullback To figure out how well you will do ten years from now relative to someone else, count your enemies, count his, and square the ratio. – @nntaleb Permalink 2:20 AM – 21 Feb 2018

@robertwjordway Great podcast interview with BBC @nntaleb, clear and succinct aka no BS. Imagine if we kept a politician’s speech that short… #SkinInTheGamehttps://iono.fm/e/533487   Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb London authentic squid ink pic.twitter.com/JMi2ASDDTv Permalink 2:28 PM – 20 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Rolling, waiting, stopping https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/WaitingForAllSix.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PAa7OGjsDa”>  pic.twitter.com/PAa7OGjsDa Permalink 9:04 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 A thread about 100 things I took from @nntaleb’s new book “skin in the game”https://twitter.com/Douglas9162/status/965961351221907456   Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 45- I am, at the fed level, Libertarian; at the state level, republican; at the local level, Democrat; at the family and friends level, a socialist. Permalink 7:02 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@byzantinepower Forces of The New Rome unite #Byzantium CC: @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/dwUuhB7K9s Permalink 6:27 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Friends, another (shortened) version… Clear enough? pic.twitter.com/vw2uqrljiz Permalink 3:03 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 Have slept on Skin in the Game by @nntaleb, here is a thread about some things I learned/liked most Permalink 3:02 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Just hit me I have another talk at @dauntbooks at 12:30… Marylebone Permalink 2:26 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb What is it with people expecting a James Bond villain?https://twitter.com/jasonolympics/status/965694502085320704   Permalink 1:32 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@adrianomcs87 If @nntaleb’s insight is right, and if the New Testment authors took a semitic (i.e., Hebraic) notion and translated it into doxa (meaning glory) then the view that they were vulgar Platonists is wrong, since doxa as opinion is one of the most basic notions of Platonism.https://twitter.com/startupdaemon/status/964679507381833728   Permalink 2:26 PM – 19 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Announcement: I am not in Glascow on Friday. Never heard of this.https://twitter.com/fornogoodreason/status/965590985962086400   Permalink 7:33 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@KenMWolfgang Talk with @nntaleb about the evidence supporting the efficacy of the psychological arts. Then come back and tell me it’s superior to prayer.https://twitter.com/rdfrs/status/965036559794888704   Permalink 7:23 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@mikeharrisNY “. However, as Sepp’s chart below shows, What happened on February 5th was well outside the norm.” Ph.D in statistics should know that certain power laws have no “norm”. Outside the norm is the usual rather than the unusual. @nntaleb Permalink 7:21 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@benshapiro Evidence gathered from many locations over many years indicates no religious person was arguing that, you dumbass.https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/964606017513410560   Permalink 6:49 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@yvespatte Ce livre @nntaleb est une véritable arme de self-defense contre les discours de ceux qui écrivent et déterminent le monde, sans jamais mettre leur peau en jeu, sans jamais en payer les conséquences (d’où l’asymétrie) & c’est un vrai plaidoyer pour les entrepreneurs ! A lire !! pic.twitter.com/ki61lgQVLG Permalink 2:23 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Should we announce that Mr Van Someren @alexvans will replace me and speak in my place at @Silva’s Second Home?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/965280477480448000   Permalink 8:02 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@NateAgapi If you haven’t already, you should read Nassim’s book Antifragile. It very much is a scientific critique on many modern systems. It centers on the lack of understanding of statistics. Much of what we think of as science is really mathematical ignorance. Taleb is trying to reform. Permalink 4:29 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb After 2 years of work, our paper “Gini Estimation under Infinite Variance” with @DrCirillo & colleague was accepted by Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Applications. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1707.01370.pdf   Permalink 1:21 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb A culture of intellectual honor: NEVER fight anyone outside the limit of the specific fight of concern to you. And never dig people when they are down. Now, intellecktchuals need to learn something about honor.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/965274466761756674   Permalink 11:16 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Oh no.https://twitter.com/Cyberlibris/status/965279683460960256   Permalink 9:41 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The fact that I dislike @wmarybeard & her “scholarship” does not mean I need to be concerned with her other disputes. So I will block anyone getting me involved in her other problems. Gabish? Permalink 9:19 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Same for multiplicative chains from Government Interventionhttps://twitter.com/_youhadonejob1/status/965220109278212097   Permalink 7:25 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@Lekapenos Every time NNT says Phoenicia multiple Arabists commit suicide, Permalink 6:48 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Archeology? Of course: here is a Roman temple just outside the village. pic.twitter.com/JZtBNL1wvO Permalink 6:39 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Bottargua with Araq. Last day before Orth Lent pic.twitter.com/yyVWdvzNdi Permalink 4:29 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb It snowed all night in Northern Phoenicia The “White Mountain” pic.twitter.com/vF8lmcSWg6 Permalink 3:03 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My neighbor in NY is first to see a hard copy of my book (I am in Northern Phoenicia & he opened the shipment).https://twitter.com/NcojoD/status/964923003078406145   Permalink 10:53 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If it is offensive to wonks, like @CLANicholson, it is purely intentional.https://twitter.com/CLANicholson/status/964875811173142529   Permalink 6:59 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@normonics the logic doesnt seem to work for bloggers. you share what you write on a blog. the blog is the product. N is writing books and sharing the making of the sausage. Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb So, in other words, if you see, say a B-School academic with the attitude that “he is smart & had he wanted he would be richer than practitioners” explain to him that he is not an academic BY CHOICE but out of incompetence. Permalink 4:07 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Indeed @R_Thaler’s mental accounting is an interesting intellectual fraud (I mean, really charlatanism): not only he did it statically but by his own admission verbalistically. They add “mathematics” for show. https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/963590651660005377   Permalink 3:28 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@Matthew_T_Kent If these people weren’t so out of touch, they would understand that stories of Trump having affairs with Playboy models will only serve to boost his image. As @nntaleb said: If someone would rather be Trump instead of his detractor, they won’t be swayed by the character attackshttps://twitter.com/ronanfarrow/status/964456374326448128   Permalink 2:20 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Finally, some mystical mathematics: https://www.dropbox.com/s/s93sh2els9tj7cs/GordianProbabilityFeb16-2018.tex?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yZQrbaLRtM”>  pic.twitter.com/yZQrbaLRtM Permalink 1:37 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@startupdaemon One dictionary I found defined original δόξα as “conjecture”, not opinion. So there isn’t so much an evolution as filling in. The most basic SITG practice consists precisely of conjecture, then (in the extreme) heroic action to “test” it or “make it become manifest”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/728560682489266178   Permalink 5:54 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@vonkronstadt You’re confusing different meanings of “belief”, again NNT nails it in one tweethttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/728562580583796737   Permalink 3:12 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb This mysterious @pseudoerasmus got the point that enlightenment != popenlightenment, Soviet-Harvardism reason!= naive rationalism, atheism, literalism scientism!= scientism sckepticism is about secular not metaphorical values. But he is wrong on Pinker Boy’s theory of violence.https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/962166440395771904   Permalink 3:05 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) THOSE WHO EAT TOGETHER BAND TOGETHER For instance since Muslims can eat Kosher food, why did they add another interdict: wine? To prevent socializing with Jews and Christians hence lower exposure to conversions. pic.twitter.com/d8w3Jgghbv Permalink 1:12 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Highly doubtful. This is an ad hoc “sounds good” explanation. A- 1) Kashrut came with >500 other interdicts. 2) Local neighbors (Greeks, Canaanites, pre-Islamic Arabians) had no such interdict on pork. B- Interdicts serve as religious markers. I discuss in SITG. Permalink 1:02 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nohttps://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/964595962218872832   Permalink 12:53 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb No, @NaomiAKlein should not retract. All tawk. She should go reside in Venezuela. Now. Skin in the game, @jordanbpeterson eliminates tawk.https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/964538309593542657   Permalink 12:27 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@GuruAnaerobic After having followed @nntaleb for many years, I now can’t look at ANY research and accompanying statistical analysis without skepticism. I’m basically seeing bullshit everywhere – it’s killing me! Permalink 9:05 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@jordanbpeterson Ms. Klein @NaomiAKlein since you haven’t retracted your very public support for the murderous totalitarians of Venezuela, it might be better if you just kept quiet…https://twitter.com/NaomiAKlein/status/964498312454918144   Permalink 8:33 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Tossing, waiting, and stopping https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/TwoInARow.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/q5vFcWUzRv”>  pic.twitter.com/q5vFcWUzRv Permalink 7:27 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb NonProfiteers & academics who think they made a “sacrifice” underestimate how hard (& rare) it is to make money in the Real World w/o rentseeking. Authors who think they “sacrifice” by not dumbing down underestimate how hard (& rare) it is to sell a book to very wide audiences. Permalink 6:15 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@Mangan150 The replication crisis in clinical psychology: evidence that psychotherapy works is weak.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00256/full   Permalink 4:30 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@mikeandallie This falls into the professional math bucket and not the “math for kids” bucket that I’m usually tweeting about. This is a fascinating paper about the the amount of data you need to be able to make meaningful statements about a data set.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964452372167655425   Permalink 3:24 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) It is not just that the Leb war numbers are bogus but they come from journos who BS and cite each another (citation ring), causing an inflation in numbers. Some idiotic historian gets them into books w/1 citation. Trying to clean up war data w/@DrCirillo @ABarnardNYT Permalink 2:57 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The link is here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964450061164965888   Permalink 2:52 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Finally posted my paper on consequences of fat tails in observing an average (you need 10^13 more data for Pareto 80/20 than for a Gaussian). pic.twitter.com/hugGbKoGGN Permalink 2:43 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Actually the numbers for the Leb civil war are bogus. BTW I was there. Same as Hama 1982 climbing without reason. Chapter in Skin in the Game https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac  https://twitter.com/ABarnardNYT/status/964160904429539329   Permalink 2:30 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Smart actors become executives Permalink 10:42 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a Random Inequality https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/RandomInequality.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qPhmubXPrx”>  pic.twitter.com/qPhmubXPrx Permalink 9:59 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Twelve hours in Casablanca airport. Permalink 6:29 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a Meet in an Elimination Tournament https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/EliminationTournament.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/wjEuVUAna2″>  pic.twitter.com/wjEuVUAna2 Permalink 6:21 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining the Weak Non-Ergodicity: Not only your fate will not “average out” but it will diverge over time, the opposite of what has been believed for 290 years in the stupid decision science literature.. Risk is something to be seen dynamically, not staticallt @ole_b_peters pic.twitter.com/K8Ffs5ufjZ Permalink 6:01 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@VergilDen Smart prostitutes become lobbyists Permalink 5:22 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Will @WikiTribune become a platform for Monsanto the way Wikipedia has been?https://twitter.com/TheDrum/status/964081874695049217   Permalink 3:20 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Without skin in the game: Smart drug dealers become pharmacopsychiatrists; smart astrologists become economists; smart serial killers write for the Wash Post; smart bullshitters become “experimental” psychologists; and smart bankrobbers become bankers. Permalink 2:40 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nate Silver shd not be lecktchuring anyone on probability and statistics. And “deep learning” works better than stat 101 in many domains. Dangerously better.https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/963930336618078209   Permalink 12:39 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@careygillam These Citizen-Regulators In Arkansas Defied Monsanto. Now They’re Under Attack “He doesn’t regret his vote to shut down dicamba spraying. “I put forth a good effort, to the best of my ability, to protect the citizens of Arkansas,” he says.”https://n.pr/2G0Ixkj   Permalink 12:23 PM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Under the fascist regime of Franco, the Basque language was banned. Well, the Lebanese language site @learn_lebanese was suspended by Twitter for no apparent reason, with no negative interaction. Twitter, is it censorship by Arabists? Please explain. Permalink 11:37 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Historical Table of drawdowns (70 years of SP500, ~17k observations), different scales, and tail exponent concerves that of returns. pic.twitter.com/4AdgbZo6TI Permalink 10:38 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb For those wasting time listening to journos on market “collapse”: this is normal, very normal business. Very, very normal. Markets are in STATES OF DRAWDOWN (i.e. trade below the peak) ~75% of the time, EVEN when returns are yuge (see 180 years of drawdowns by @financequant) Permalink 10:29 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@WissamYKhalil Just read this great piece from @nntaleb. After I learned Syriac I noticed this, but never have I seen such evidence. Great work! A must read for all those who categories Lebanese as Arabs.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 11:55 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lesson: Nobody us Pro-Saudi Barbaria for freehttps://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/this-pro-saudi-tory-mp-was-paid-ps15000-for-his-work-on-a   Permalink 7:11 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb La Boetie: Pour accéder à la liberté, il faut n’être ni maître ni esclave.https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/963605967920386057   Permalink 7:03 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK, my turn to signal.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/963244315890905088   Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Why we started the Real World Risk Institute: education can only come from practitioners.http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-caplan-education-credentials-20180211-story.html   Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile I used Mathematica for a functional quiz pic.twitter.com/omnsCnX3kT Permalink 6:36 PM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Antifragile (or philostochasticity)https://twitter.com/quantamagazine/status/962948174771097600   Permalink 3:46 PM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lunch with maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath discussing probability riddles pic.twitter.com/1v8SEB3fEL Permalink 10:38 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@ole_b_peters This is the foundation of economics. On this page Bernoulli does NOT compute the expected net change of utility. Don’t take it from me, check for yourself and retweet when you’re convinced. Bernoulli’s 1738 paper http://bit.ly/2nShXn5   Hints on p.023103-6 http://bit.ly/2vwsp8y   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6Uh6ta2eys”>  pic.twitter.com/6Uh6ta2eys Permalink 8:17 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@MTayyabAhmed …one should learn to avoid using terms made for knowledge to describe its opposite. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan) #nassimnicholastaleb #theblackswan #quotes #nntaleb pic.twitter.com/CRElfG9OXu Permalink 8:00 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I cannot be diplomatic with harmful frauds. Sorry, but it is not my nature. I can’t stand frauds. I really can’t. Gabish? Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Before submitting to Arxiv, my paper on the law of larger numbers and statistical significance under Fat Tails, for error deteckshion. https://www.dropbox.com/s/r1yo700oeih4c87/kappa-n-3.pdf?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Btm0KXgzDV”>  pic.twitter.com/Btm0KXgzDV Permalink 7:03 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@DrCirillo It’s funny to read claims about changes in the number and magnitude of wars, when the average time span between two large wars is larger than the observation window used to support the claim. It’s like: since it has been raining for three days, the sun does not exist any longer! Permalink 5:52 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Very good, Joe. Descriptive statistics (i.e. without significance test), @DrCirillo and I will argue are a NO-NO with Fat tails and/or time series. Permalink 5:19 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am certain Monsanto is taking over Wikipedia, @jimmy_wales. This page on the journal entropy does not mentions that many agencies consider Glyphosate likely carcinogenic, uses criticism by Monsanto shill Kevin Kloor. pic.twitter.com/hxSLCa6Cvg Permalink 4:49 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Incidentally, in spite of our plethoric explanations, @PTetlock keeps misdefining the precautionary principle as local risk management /what falls under tort laws. The Precautionary Principle is to make sure the system is there tomorrow.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/962272552256266245   Permalink 3:34 PM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The anti-BS vending mission is working, one mind at a time. (with permission) pic.twitter.com/1eXRe8G1Vn Permalink 11:26 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb It could be associated with bull worshiping coming from Neolithic central Anatolia, traveling with the J2 haplogroups across the Med (Canaanites, Minoans, etc.) In other words, perhaps it came WITH them in Mesolithic or early Neolithic, not learned from neighbors.https://twitter.com/MayaMargit/status/962702296646848513   Permalink 10:56 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb “We Are Living In A Reality Distortion” Mark Spitznagel Warns “This Is Not Over Yet” | Zero Hedgehttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-10/mark-spitznagel-why-picking-market-crashes-impossible   Permalink 10:17 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb FU attitude…https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/962705530803425280   Permalink 8:03 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 5) Actually @DrCirillo and I wrote a paper on historical wars assuming that historians are bullshitters, getting a sort of metric of robustness to bullshit by historians. https://arxiv.org/a/taleb_n_1.html   Permalink 3:13 PM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 4) I am not saying history is BS, only that what you find in history books is full of BS. A lot of fake news. Stop conflating History=good w/ historians=good. I am seeing that via history of wars and genetic maps. Also from bullshits by historians.https://twitter.com/San_person/status/962412576133951488   Permalink 12:16 PM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In fact, anyone who has taken risks professionally knows this intuitively, but verbagiastic @PTetlock and nudgeboy @R_Thaler can’t get it. Permalink 11:32 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining both the XIV trade and why forecasting is some type of academic BS. https://youtu.be/hRwimmE2wEk   via @YouTube Permalink 10:59 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@jacoporomei Yesterday I had my last day with @nntaleb. This is my last personal report about Real World Risk Institute workshop in New York City. Enjoy! #risk #rwri #antifragile #blackswan #skininthegamehttp://bit.ly/2Eh65RE   Permalink 10:18 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) If you look at the court system (common law), you can see that it evolved to build a process; not hard laws but procedures designed to minimize errors of reasoning. Permalink 9:31 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And what I mean by law is common law, bottom up pic.twitter.com/g4zCJZQRyA Permalink 9:17 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Why correlation is not correlationhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o   Permalink 8:07 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If you remember less crap as you age, it is largely that your filtering mechanism is getting trained.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/962350303185121280   Permalink 7:50 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Libertarianism is about replacing authority with laws (legal systems, courts). Hard sciences (math, physics) obey laws, bullshit disciplines (psychology, history, sociology) obey authority. In the absence of #skininthegame, authority evolves to BS. In anything. Permalink 7:34 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) we know for sure Tabal is NOT Semitic in origin (TNBL= 4cons. not 3) also it is made into a verb in Leb. Permalink 6:22 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Philology Question du jour. Tanbal (“Farniente”) in Lebanese is Τεμπελιάζω in Modern Greek. Which one comes from the other, or is there a common origin?https://twitter.com/lecths/status/962321258238087168   Permalink 6:20 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb WEF staff is a bunch of BS artists concocting what feels right and sounds intelligent. Zero rigor. For instance @amonck is a fraud.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/734046282340306946   Permalink 5:59 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Rule in life: never cite/post analyses by WEF/Davos. Never.https://twitter.com/jraitamaa/status/962284005998649344   Permalink 4:57 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The pseudohistorian @mikeduncan has to be a total intellecktchual fraud: He jumped in, commenting on the Mary Beard problem without even knowing anything except that it was Mary Beard on the other side. Historians & pseudohistorians are good at fake news. Permalink 3:47 PM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The main difference between Mediterraneans and nonMeds: Farniente (doing nothing) is active for a Med. Permalink 10:53 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Which is why one should not let low-IQ state department & think tank analysts (without skin in the game) anywhere near your problem.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/961976714049015809   Permalink 6:56 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb « Jouer sa peau » et gagnant-gagnant http://la-chronique-agora.com/jouer-peau-gagnant-gagnant/   via @lcagora Permalink 6:18 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Functional Inequality from Vietnam https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/FunctionalInequality.shtml   #FigureThat #math #geometry ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/n9OvM4WdLF”>  pic.twitter.com/n9OvM4WdLF Permalink 6:02 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@RandPaul Tonight, you could feel the frustration and embarrassment growing in Congress as we exposed the hypocrisy of Republicans who are joining in an unholy alliance and spending free-for-all with Democrats at the expense of the American people and our party’s supposed principles. Permalink 10:53 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@yaneerbaryam “Monsanto manipulated science to promote pesticide glyphosate and GMOs”https://twitter.com/i/moments/961759028891324417   Permalink 4:51 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@RandPaul Would you voluntarily give your money to the federal government for things like this? Wasteful spending is riddled throughout government and this deal just adds to the problem. pic.twitter.com/dMIk8cNR9u Permalink 3:30 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@trishankkarthik Really insightful observation by @nntaleb at #RWRI7 “Although the [cybersecurity] events involve multiple Gaussian points of failure, the dollars involved are power law distributed.” Permalink 2:17 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@_NicT_ Today at #RWRI @nntaleb described a third regime in between mediocristan and extremistan, notable for memoryless exposures over time. Hey Nassim you should call this one ‘persististan’. Permalink 12:50 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@GuruAnaerobic The Real World Risk Seminar is like being at a 5-day banquet. If u havent been yet, plse consider attending.The knowledge gained is immense Permalink 9:44 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@CllrBSilvester During 2nd World War many Brits went to fight with French Resistance against the Nazis. When they came back, if they did, they were treated like heroes They weren’t thrown in prison This Tory Gov has totally left leave of its senses. Most people can’t believe they have done thishttps://twitter.com/CllrBSilvester/status/961563915024044032   Permalink 8:46 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@jacoporomei So much to tell, too much to tell! #RWRI Day 3: my experience report. @avanscoperta! We will need 34 meetup! :-D #complexity #iyi #risk #cravattato http://bit.ly/2GXSaBB   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iB9dSMWPzw”>  pic.twitter.com/iB9dSMWPzw Permalink 12:30 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@ayltoncf Maybe @nntaleb would like this one.https://twitter.com/downunderabc123/status/961194569231560704   Permalink 3:47 PM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb REWRI (Real World Risk Seminar), @trishankkarthik presenting P/NP and predictability, comments on GMOs. pic.twitter.com/5TI9hgOr4v Permalink 12:51 PM – 7 Feb 2018

@Spfannenschmidt In light of @nntaleb’s #RWRI 1) rules for optimizing group vs individual characteristics should differ 2) some of the trees in your random decision forest should be paranoid and overreacthttps://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/960254800179945473   Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A correction is in order pic.twitter.com/hqeZO4JUqi Permalink 8:18 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Difference with Pinker boy (@sapinker): + No US book tour (1 lecktchur in NY) + No copies sent to journos (they can buy it themselves) and mostly +No BShttps://twitter.com/sapinker/status/960616039582240768   Permalink 7:25 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Non, le libanais n’est pas un « dialecte » arabeNon, le libanais n’est pas un « dialecte » arabe”https://medium.com/p/non-le-libanais-nest-pas-un-dialecte-arabenon-le-libanais-n-est-pas-un-dialecte-arabe-844fb8dda2f2   Permalink 6:25 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Always apologize except when did something wrong. (Bed of Procrustes) Permalink 6:14 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Apologies are just words. You want them to ALSO lose their own money. Nomura “Sincerely Apologizes” For Blowing Up Investors With Its VIX-Linked ETN | Zero Hedgehttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-07/nomura-sincerely-apologizes-blowing-investors-its-vix-linked-etn   Permalink 5:50 AM – 7 Feb 2018

Maronites, Flynn, Applebaum, Shamri, Saudi Barbaria, Napoleon, the French, Nate Silver, Sarsour | Twitter

@nntaleb A Greek-Orthodox (me) will give a short lecture about reviving the language of the Maronites in …an Armenian place of worship in NY.https://twitter.com/rwnicholson_/status/862487002398195712   Permalink 7:28 PM – 10 May 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/kOVTwQCQl5 Permalink 5:36 PM – 10 May 2017

@nntaleb It is easier to fool someone perceived as “intelligent” than a doorman. Just use abstract words in your argument. Permalink 3:57 PM – 10 May 2017

@nntaleb I don’t drink beer. Would bourbon do?https://twitter.com/realistgrower/status/862398036584022016   Permalink 1:20 PM – 10 May 2017

@nntaleb “Intelligent” Ivy-league people (those exam-taking idiots, IYIs) are structurally selected for finding patterns, not doubting them. Permalink 9:49 AM – 10 May 2017

@nntaleb Conspiracy theorizing reflects minds evolved enough to see patterns, but insufficiently to prune out the spurious. #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 9:13 AM – 10 May 2017

@RyderCleary WSJ editors have been reading their @nntaleb. #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/ZbE2V7wuFI Permalink 8:31 AM – 10 May 2017

@nntaleb Year end picture & class party w students of my class at School of Engineering NYU @nyutandon pic.twitter.com/kAK2E6cF81 Permalink 4:04 PM – 9 May 2017

@nntaleb Standing press (clean and press without the clean). Permalink 2:38 PM – 9 May 2017

@nntaleb Friends, what is the press equivalent to deadlifting 400lb? Permalink 2:35 PM – 9 May 2017

@MaxBlumenthal Bana Alabed & the White Helmets build on a grand tradition of pro-war psy-ops, most notably this Gulf War-era scam: http://www.nytimes.com/1992/01/15/opinion/deception-on-capitol-hill.html   Permalink 12:20 PM – 9 May 2017

@CynicalSceptic_ Every day is a good day when @nntaleb and @GadSaad shit on the elitist establishment. God bless both of you!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/861922504813797376   Permalink 6:23 AM – 9 May 2017

@nntaleb Corrected typos pic.twitter.com/hRUnADCV9k Permalink 5:36 AM – 9 May 2017

@nntaleb The skinny-fat warmonger is something new in history. Opening the discussion for my evo friends @johndurant @primalpoly @GadSaad pic.twitter.com/dnlSI3c12P Permalink 5:35 AM – 9 May 2017

@saifedean 5 decades of being predominantly unproductive consumers living off petrodollar rents cannot be reversed in a year, or even in a generation. Permalink 4:09 AM – 9 May 2017

@nntaleb If you worry about your reputation you don’t deserve to have one. Permalink 1:37 PM – 8 May 2017

@nntaleb Michael Flynn knew about Obama’s support for AlQaeda “rebels”https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/861611846452862976   Permalink 11:11 AM – 8 May 2017

@nntaleb The same probability as Hillary Clinton getting the Clay Prize for a complete mathematical solution of the P-NP problem or Navier-Stokes Eqhttps://twitter.com/tragure/status/861567498906456068   Permalink 6:18 AM – 8 May 2017

@nntaleb “To succeed, you need 2 things: ignorance and confidence” & “To fail, you need 2 things:ignorance and confidence” Defines #SurvivorshipBiashttps://twitter.com/howardshore/status/861544044886929409   Permalink 5:35 AM – 8 May 2017

@nntaleb The BS-buster @DanielLMcAdams debunks @anneapplebaum who’s half way between an unintelligent wind-vendor & a dangerous warmonging shill.https://twitter.com/RonPaulInstitut/status/861415665718218754   Permalink 4:58 AM – 8 May 2017

@nntaleb Nontraders & bureaucrats are under the illusion that if demand ↓1% price ↓1%. In fact demand ↓1% can cause (in squeezes) ↓50%! Kapish? Permalink 4:38 AM – 8 May 2017

@nntaleb http://www.thepetitionsite.com/471/732/427/save-man-from-death-in-saudi-arabia-for-quotatheism-and-blasphemyquot/?taf_id=36305784&cid=twitter   Permalink 3:37 PM – 7 May 2017

@nntaleb How long before Saudi Barbaria undergoes a deep economic crisis, become literally bust? All it takes is demand for oil to drop by 5-12%. Permalink 2:15 PM – 7 May 2017

@nntaleb Mr Shahbandar, Arab bullshit vendors w/o scholarly credentials who shill for a living are ALSO fragile in their reputation. Kapish? Permalink 2:02 PM – 7 May 2017

@scrollinondubs thank u @nntaleb for all you do outing charlatans. you are a role model to us all via your service & sacrificeshttps://medium.com/incerto/the-skin-of-others-in-your-game-3f51d8ccc3fb   Permalink 1:13 PM – 7 May 2017

@nntaleb Those of us worried abt alliance between @realDonaldTrump & Saudi Barbaria hope that he is just playing them.https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/861296116796579840   Permalink 12:34 PM – 7 May 2017

@nntaleb In 1960s, Cyprus, Lebanon & Malta had similar wealth, genes & culture. Cyprus & Malta embraced the West. Lebanon tried “Arabism”. Disaster. Permalink 4:57 AM – 7 May 2017

@nntaleb Clooney fears tweeting when drunk: actors are obsessed w/reputation. Also fears not taking AlQaeds script in Syria. Romans despised actors.https://twitter.com/SVPhillimore/status/860952142865203201   Permalink 2:05 PM – 6 May 2017

@nntaleb IYIs, Intellectuals Yet Idiots, favor things that work in theory but not in practice to things that work in practice but not in theory. Permalink 9:24 AM – 6 May 2017

@nntaleb Something rings strange w/the wage gap: someone has to be an imbecile to overpay for gender when corps profitability lies in the last penny. Permalink 5:45 AM – 6 May 2017

@nntaleb Why people who deadlift /clean-press should have a pseudo-belly for stability: thin waistline is obtained artificially via machines. pic.twitter.com/H4VMLY9eyl Permalink 4:47 AM – 6 May 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The Skin of Others in your Game”https://medium.com/p/the-skin-of-others-in-your-game-3f51d8ccc3fb   Permalink 3:27 AM – 6 May 2017

@nntaleb Mitanni were IndoEuropeans. Spec: + Mitanni were J2 + Assyrians and Phoenicians descend from Mitanni who took on Semitic lang. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/nTEv2toRUI Permalink 2:29 AM – 6 May 2017

@nntaleb That’s Salibi’s bullshit. Looks like it was limited to Damascus. Permalink 4:40 PM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb French history textbooks hype up Napoleon’s “Egyptology”, do not mention that he attempted to destroy ALL ruins of Granada. Permalink 4:00 PM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb So either Ghassanids converted to Islam or they weren’t of J1 Haplogroup to start with. Permalink 2:29 PM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb Friends, there are claims that politicians on the “right” are much more personable & friendly to staff than those on “left”. Any data/refs? Permalink 2:12 PM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb DNA analyses hint that, contrary to legend, there are minimal numbers of Christians in thhe Levant who descend from Ghassanids. @PZallouahttps://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/860587555250728960   Permalink 1:40 PM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb Nobody dare to discuss the male-female life expectance gap. Or the male-female prison population gap.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/860547324216586240   Permalink 10:34 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb Nobody is saying we shouldn’t learn about Napoleon. Except he should not be whitewashed. Kapish? Permalink 9:14 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb There is very little that is Mediterranean about the “French” (north of Avignon), except, of course, their language.https://twitter.com/panamaorange/status/860517319201742848   Permalink 8:34 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb Unconditional antifragility of information: it thrives from all visible attempts at suppression. Neofascists (libs, “left”) don’t get it. Permalink 8:23 AM – 5 May 2017

@pauld1981 French are suckers for hierarchy, they believe what the establishment tells them … where’s the Coluche of this time? Permalink 8:06 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb Heuristic: for international transactions, AVOID forum in country w/Napoleon’s code civil in favor of Anglo-style law. HK, SG, US… Kapish? Permalink 6:16 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb If you can make the French believe that a despot, Napoleon,can strengthen the “Revolution” w/an Imperial family, you can sell them anything! Permalink 5:46 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb I fail to understand why Napoleon doesn’t figure out among the criminally pathological nuts of history. Whitewashing by France?https://twitter.com/britishmuseum/status/860468604587868164   Permalink 5:35 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb Aside from that, elections are NOT similar. Le Pen is not Trump, but a professional politician. Permalink 4:05 PM – 4 May 2017

@nntaleb Hillaryhttps://twitter.com/NinaByzantina/status/859492813968486401   Permalink 11:53 AM – 3 May 2017

@nntaleb Haven’t read @BretStephensNYT’s article (I don’t read pseudointellectual NYT). What we said abt climate & precaution https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sZ00Nqu6pY”>  pic.twitter.com/sZ00Nqu6pY Permalink 9:14 AM – 3 May 2017

@nntaleb Cory Doctorow @doctorow has been actively & knowlingly misrepresenting & trying to spead fake news about my position on homeopathy. Permalink 5:35 AM – 3 May 2017

@BisayaFilms #TalebXPhilippines pic.twitter.com/oyoMi7bqrZ Permalink 4:47 AM – 3 May 2017

@nntaleb Explaining how to price elections and why Nate Silver is clueeeeeeeeeless about probability. @realHarryCranehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA_3RwEIqzI   Permalink 4:38 AM – 3 May 2017

@nntaleb Gitanos should be able to teach us a few things about flaneuring, survival, & soul in the music. Permalink 5:23 PM – 2 May 2017

@cedantarmatog1 Interesting article on @nntaleb at http://mises.org  https://mises.org/blog/what-nassim-taleb-can-teach-us   Permalink 1:22 PM – 2 May 2017

@nntaleb Friends, looking for reliable accounts on Spanish gypsies, one that is not written by some English or Cultural Studies professor. Permalink 9:30 AM – 2 May 2017

@nntaleb A government run by professionals is like a form or a trading house run by back office &support people. But firms go bust, govs expand. Permalink 5:29 AM – 2 May 2017

@nntaleb Read @HRW reports abt Aleppo 2016; turned out almost all AlQaeda dictated fiction. They didn’t retract. We should believe them… now?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/859343010244546560   Permalink 4:56 AM – 2 May 2017

@nntaleb Just wrote the central comment of Skin in the Game: Systems learn by removing parts. pic.twitter.com/YalzjWcJut Permalink 3:09 AM – 2 May 2017

@nntaleb Applied math.https://twitter.com/stoicdaku/status/859085724125102080   Permalink 12:41 PM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb Don’t complain too loud about wrongs done to you; you may give ideas to your less imaginative enemies. The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 12:27 PM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb Burn old logs Drink old wine Read old books Keep old friends, Alphonso X, #LindyEffecthttps://twitter.com/CaesarIpse/status/859124709987950592   Permalink 12:22 PM – 1 May 2017

@MrAlexisPereira As @nntaleb once said, the reason why Trump is so comically bad at explaining things is that he’s never had a boss. Permalink 9:46 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb #skininthegame Jihadi women find it easy to make pronouncements living in Brooklyn, under Western protective laws. Sarsour is despicable.https://twitter.com/dontcarebut/status/824417602395070464   Permalink 8:34 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb Maimonides, Medical Aphorisms (Heuristics): the young can afford to overeat, the elder should watch his quantities. He found it in Galen. pic.twitter.com/966sk527At Permalink 8:09 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb It is vastly more honorable to get rich THEN go to office than go to office THEREFORE get rich. Permalink 8:03 AM – 1 May 2017

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/KVyXnwNgoQ Permalink 7:07 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb Peace: Neither Ink nor Blood http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2017/may/01/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood/#.WQc9dUTaLO4.twitter   Permalink 6:52 AM – 1 May 2017

@maui4321 “An honest public servant can’t become rich in politics.” — Harry Truman Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb These idiots don’t get that the pblm isn’t making money, it’s using NONPROFIT sector to SUBSEQUENTLY get rich (Blair, Clintons, Husseins O)https://twitter.com/peterdaou/status/858068645964115970   Permalink 4:44 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb (cont) Which sums up to: “You, and only you, know what’s best for you.” Permalink 4:06 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb Also: Non v ‘e piu bel messo che se stesso On ne trouve jamais meilleur messager que soi-meme Pretty much the foundation of #Libertarianism Permalink 4:00 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb Motto of #SkinintheGame & Liberty “Your fingernail can best scratch your itch” Non scabat caput praeter unges tuo ما بحكك الا ظفرك in1614! pic.twitter.com/p96k7jHiHi Permalink 3:49 AM – 1 May 2017

Joseph Justus Scaliger, Nate Silver, Palestinian-Israeli, Macron, Algeria, Nikki Haley, Scientism, Monsanto, Neo-Cons, Patriots | Twitter

@nntaleb His translation https://books.google.com/books?id=I3UTAAAAQAAJ&pg=PA19&dq=scaliger+arabicorum&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjQs_26mM3TAhVDLyYKHf59CXUQ6AEIODAD#v=onepage&q&f=false   Permalink 3:08 PM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Joseph Justus Scaliger remains the most erudite man in history. He knew mathematics, Aramaic, Hebrew… He even translated Arabic proverbshttps://twitter.com/SanguineEmpiric/status/858802597783773184   Permalink 3:05 PM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb One thing I can certify: Nate Silver doesn’t know “his” subject. Not probability or “wvidence”.https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/858741398694187012   Permalink 12:58 PM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I confirm. GMO operatives tried a smear campaign on yours truly. So far, failed. Some journos like @doctorow were complicit w/fake newshttps://twitter.com/peterdoodes/status/858745682282385408   Permalink 11:54 AM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The Cretan diet is fiction. @GuruAnaerobic @drjasonfung pic.twitter.com/FJmBR8BAJC Permalink 10:29 AM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb There are v. few Algerian Jihadis in ISIS, many from France. Tunisia is a country in trouble. pic.twitter.com/ZuIKwmh4sR Permalink 7:40 AM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Do these photos match those of the propagandists?https://twitter.com/Rajarajan941/status/858361038495928320   Permalink 7:36 AM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb How the Israeli-Palestine problem comes from too many cooks with no skin-in-the-gamehttps://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 6:58 AM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Peace: Neither Ink nor Blood”https://medium.com/p/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 6:55 AM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb @saifedean a Libertarian Palestinian, has similar comments. Permalink 6:13 AM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The Palestinian-Israeli conflict perpetuated by people “who are trying to help”. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/SAyzKaZ3wt Permalink 6:01 AM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 3) If Macron is elected, we will need to protect Algeria from France and its French-grown Jihadis. Permalink 5:46 AM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb And Macron needs a good lesson about the Minority Rule.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 5:00 AM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Ironically, Algeria got rid of the bulk of its Jihadis after their civil war. Active Algerian Jihadis are more likely to be in France.https://twitter.com/_Stalker_69_/status/858605396075962368   Permalink 4:58 AM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Never explain why something important is important. Permalink 2:01 AM – 30 Apr 2017

@nntaleb When a principle is strong and (you feel) imperative, everything you do to justify it or rationalize it makes it weaker. Everything. Permalink 2:58 PM – 29 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I meant lifting your maximum load requires a great deal of concentration (particularly if you live in New York). Permalink 10:21 AM – 29 Apr 2017

@nntaleb To echo Yogi Berra, almost all of weightlifting is mental. Only the other half is physical. Permalink 8:59 PM – 28 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Please, replace her. With anything. Even an animal from the New York zoo would be safer. Perhaps even an economist.http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/330247-trump-haley-could-easily-be-replaced#.WQO2J77djPQ.twitter   Permalink 2:40 PM – 28 Apr 2017

@nntaleb My theory is that companies don’t die for external causes. They just commit suicide.https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/858065371164626944   Permalink 2:22 PM – 28 Apr 2017

@nntaleb More squid ink. pic.twitter.com/U1zsQhuvF1 Permalink 1:11 PM – 28 Apr 2017

@nntaleb He changed his name to Pinker Boy as penitence after losing a math bet.https://twitter.com/loglog_vc/status/858036487727849473   Permalink 12:38 PM – 28 Apr 2017

@niall_gooch How have I never seen this story before? The last Byzantine Emperor went out like a man. pic.twitter.com/7dEJH4e37L Permalink 12:07 PM – 28 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Our study explaining the BS in studies of “drop in violence”. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315 Permalink 10:34 AM – 28 Apr 2017

@nntaleb El libro de mi amigo Tom Holand @holland_tom pic.twitter.com/U1pzG6iekb Permalink 8:31 AM – 28 Apr 2017

@nntaleb This BS graph doesn’t have *intensity* of wars. More people died in a tiny segment in 20th C than all before.https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/857638539554693121   Permalink 7:39 AM – 28 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Travel Heuristic: In a v. touristy town, if a rstrant is overbooked, show up in nice jacket & Italian-looking shoes & you will get a table. Permalink 7:32 AM – 28 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Travel Heuristic: In a scenic place, the best restaurant is most likely to be the most crowded one with no view.https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52   Permalink 6:33 AM – 28 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Mission: Defend science against obscurantism & Defend science against scientismhttps://twitter.com/TheCharlieton/status/857938763749748736   Permalink 6:21 AM – 28 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Globalistidiots assume that pple are only paid in money, not the pride & belonging seeing the community consume their products & vice versa. Permalink 2:35 PM – 27 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Thanks Ron Paul, once again. Scientism is our disease.https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/857644784604909568   Permalink 10:31 AM – 27 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Philology du jour: Motto of Emir of Granada, on all walls of Alhambra, “Only victor is G” equivalent of memento homo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auriga_(slave)   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/MOYJhtaR4R”>  pic.twitter.com/MOYJhtaR4R Permalink 10:16 AM – 27 Apr 2017

@primalpoly When SJWs demand we ignore 70 million years of mammalian maternal behavior, to conform to this season’s PC fad.https://heatst.com/culture-wars/study-describing-breastfeeding-as-natural-is-unethical-because-it-reinforces-gender-roles/   Permalink 8:18 AM – 27 Apr 2017

@NC_CyberLaw This entire thread. And read @nntaleb books. You’ll never look at any client matter or news story the same way again.https://twitter.com/isamuel/status/857586263720906753   Permalink 6:47 AM – 27 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Globalism has the effect of separating some people a step too far from the fruits of their actions. #skininthegame pic.twitter.com/5jQktncGj9 Permalink 4:24 AM – 26 Apr 2017

@RyanMaue Worthwhile read on scientism –>https://mises.org/blog/neil-ty-scientism-guy   Permalink 6:55 PM – 25 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I am surprised nobody recognized Doyne Farmer & his types from Antifragile. They made Fat Tony rich pic.twitter.com/grCI8XTZa2 Permalink 11:17 AM – 25 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Philip II to the Spartans: You should submit because IF my armies invade you I will destroy, slay your pple, & raze your city Spartans: “If” Permalink 11:14 AM – 25 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Philip II to the Spartans: You should submit because IF my armies invade you I will destroy, slay your pple, & raze your city Spartans: “If” Permalink 11:14 AM – 25 Apr 2017

@nntaleb “Could”.https://twitter.com/sfiscience/status/856907470907863041   Permalink 11:01 AM – 25 Apr 2017

@nntaleb One of those low-IQ shills disguized as journalist is keith kloor @keithkloor. Shame. Permalink 5:25 AM – 25 Apr 2017

@nntaleb One of those low-IQ shills disguized as journalist is keith kloor @keithkloor. Shame. Permalink 5:25 AM – 25 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The victim of Monsanto is not just the agricultural structure; it is SCIENCE.https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/856677879601545216   Permalink 5:19 AM – 25 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the game does not imply unlimited liability. Just means SOME punishment. Permalink 2:23 AM – 25 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the game in place of regulations.https://twitter.com/pmansfield678/status/856751898019475456   Permalink 12:48 AM – 25 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I am now about where Halevy wrote this. Permalink 4:33 PM – 24 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Halevy לִבִּי בְמִזְרָח וְאָנֹכִי בְּסוֹף מַעֲרָב Permalink 4:23 PM – 24 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Debunking Trump’s Casus Belli | The American Conservative http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/debunking-trumps-casus-belli/   via @amconmag Permalink 4:01 PM – 24 Apr 2017

@nntaleb “Mr Taleb,I don’t always agree w/you,but..” Me:”Can you 1st tell me what you disagree with,sthing concrete?” “I’ll get back to you on that” Permalink 3:43 PM – 24 Apr 2017

@nntaleb More mysteries: almodovar, frm Medawar (round), does not come frm Arabic (mustadir), bt Aramaic, cd predate Arabs w/ Phoen or Jewish root. Permalink 8:22 AM – 24 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The reason there is an unconditional freedom of speech is because no one can define the limitations without some special interest kicking inhttps://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/856504350692315137   Permalink 8:09 AM – 24 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I used option language because this is exactly an Iron butterfly. pic.twitter.com/7UErfodMjS Permalink 7:39 AM – 24 Apr 2017

@zerohedge Taleb Trashes The “Interventionistas” & Their Mental Defectshttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-23/taleb-trashes-interventionistas-their-mental-defects   Permalink 3:15 PM – 23 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Mystery almost solved! May have to do with Aljamiado! (transcription by Mozarabs) Discovered the ج is “ch”, the غ “gue”. pic.twitter.com/j5jiutcWOp Permalink 2:50 PM – 23 Apr 2017

@nntaleb And the GDP of France correlates with the number of crimes by suffocation in Panama… Fooled by Randomness? http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations   https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/855868745927053319   Permalink 11:24 AM – 23 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Galopar with g. But “a ghalopar” with ghayn. Mysteriously, also the “r” in Portuguese when in beginning as in Rua or Rio. Permalink 10:48 AM – 23 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Philology du jour: “A galopar” pronounced w/a “gh” not g sound, frm Semitic غghayn Alberti https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghayn  https://youtu.be/15JfnrqBqSI   Permalink 10:42 AM – 23 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The lawsuit ag. Monsanto has released TONS of documents, which will help us clean up & make some shills accountable. Permalink 10:02 AM – 23 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Some interesting docs betw Monsanto shills including fake journo @keithkloor & Folta on how to discredit dissenting scientists @schmittpaula Permalink 9:48 AM – 23 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The “ad hominem fallacy” is a fallacy. Science is CREDIBILITY & reliability, as in court. Once, like Folta, you lose it, you NEVER recover. Permalink 3:38 AM – 23 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Remember that there is NO study showing the tail risks of GMOs & safety. Just as no real one for glyphosate. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 3:30 AM – 23 Apr 2017

@nntaleb French elections: My arbitrage model would work in a two-candidate contest. But shouldn’t it for 4? https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf   Permalink 7:56 PM – 22 Apr 2017

@nntaleb All my life I’ve never held someone to be a fraud then found out he was legit; but I’ve made the opposite mistake (Nate Silver,Pinker boy..) Permalink 7:20 PM – 22 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Finally pic.twitter.com/DZWzu381rv Permalink 1:03 PM – 22 Apr 2017

@NonMeek .@nntaleb This #Offshorecomic commemorates the 10-year anniversary of The Black Swan. Spectacular book indeed. #BlackSwan pic.twitter.com/P7np56yUF1 Permalink 11:01 AM – 22 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The results of my exploration. Madrid is a good city for squid inkers ! pic.twitter.com/nxnNT9ozpk Permalink 9:38 AM – 22 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The results of my exploration. Madrid is a good city for squid inkers ! pic.twitter.com/nxnNT9ozpk Permalink 9:38 AM – 22 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Max is a clear thinker, intellectually honest and logically consistent. Follow this thread.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/855819794540634112   Permalink 9:30 AM – 22 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Any restaurant in central Madrid that does both squid ink and tapsas? Permalink 6:06 AM – 22 Apr 2017

@nntaleb In Hammurabi’s code, authors of false accusations were to be punished as if they committed the crime. But Louise Mensch is mentally unstablehttps://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/855564990249611265   Permalink 6:46 PM – 21 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I don’t discuss anything with liars, Mr Folta. Permalink 6:19 PM – 21 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Our case against Monsanto is here http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 5:05 PM – 21 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Our case against Monsanto is here http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 5:05 PM – 21 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Dear friends, what are the best squid ink restaurants in Madrid Seville Granada? Thanks! Permalink 3:42 PM – 21 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Friends, what was Fareed Zakaria’s approach to interventionism? Libya, Iraq, etc.? I saw him congratulating Prez Trump on the tomahawks Permalink 1:13 PM – 21 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Why can’t Monsanto afford more intelligent shills than @kevinfolta? Is it the price? Or that smarter scientists are more honorable?https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/855487367775256576   Permalink 11:36 AM – 21 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I just published “On Neo-Cons and their Mental Defects”https://medium.com/p/on-neo-cons-and-their-mental-defects-d12685585b11   Permalink 7:00 AM – 21 Apr 2017

@nntaleb This largely explains the medicare induced deficit. #Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/drjasonfung/status/855179500782538753   Permalink 3:03 PM – 20 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Beware false analogies: A politician can engage in propaganda/advocacy; newspapers that do so are no longer in the news business. Kapish? Permalink 11:38 AM – 20 Apr 2017

@garykmrivers Perhaps time for another read. Note: each tab relates to a charlatan shredding, myth busting wonder. @nntaleb #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/pm2sYXmR32 Permalink 10:37 AM – 20 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Effectively, the @nytimes was caught red handed engaging in a shoddy deceptive practice.https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/855055509455593472   Permalink 9:01 AM – 20 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Me:”Would you like red or white wine?” Rippetoe: “White wine is for salad dressing”. I drink only white wine. Permalink 7:47 AM – 20 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Historical enigma du jour: Golden Calf. Phoenicians & Assyrians were J2 Haplogroup, IndoEuropeans w/bull worship. Israelites were partly J2. pic.twitter.com/txRrShqvBU Permalink 4:45 AM – 20 Apr 2017

@johndurant Damn. The Patriots call out the New York Times for fake news. NYT spreading rumors about a photo like it’s high school.https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/854858415012806656   Permalink 6:53 PM – 19 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Me: Are there many people who look thin? Rip: Thin people aren’t fit. Permalink 4:31 PM – 19 Apr 2017

@aceloew 24 Big Reasons Why Trust in Corporate Media Has Reached All-Time Lows: A Visual Guide https://aceloewgold.com/2017/04/19/why-trust-in-corporate-media-has-reached-all-time-lows-a-visual-guide/   @nntaleb @Judgenap Permalink 3:39 PM – 19 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Rippetoe @CoachRippetoe menacing, extremely critical of my form and my lack of lifting shoes. pic.twitter.com/4mWHxbzx3G Permalink 2:40 PM – 19 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Looks like what works is obvious…https://twitter.com/ericozkan1/status/854786130432208898   Permalink 1:24 PM – 19 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The full introduction pic.twitter.com/6TBG5mGn6n Permalink 7:11 AM – 19 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Finally got to the introduction of Skin in the Game: how does the same Silver rule bust bullshit & install justice? pic.twitter.com/XbWMfSKySt Permalink 6:51 AM – 19 Apr 2017

@nntaleb There is a flaw in the logical wiring of pseudo-left & neocons #IYIs; they miss that their logic leads to: pro-regime change = pro-slaveryhttps://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/852263398712774657   Permalink 6:04 AM – 19 Apr 2017

@nntaleb High probability of Le Pen winning: attacked by 25 PseudoNobel economists, including the always wrong Stiglitz.http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2017/04/18/25-nobel-d-economie-denoncent-les-programmes-anti-europeens_5112711_3232.html   Permalink 5:16 AM – 19 Apr 2017

Boyd Tonkin: US election was a good night for the geeks – and a Tunbridge Wells cleric – The Independent

Which brings us to the celebrated bird whose shadow falls over his book, the “Black Swan”: those extreme, outlier events that defy augury, and which Nassim Nicholas Taleb hunted down in his book of that name. Silver’s Bayesian recipes work best in data-systems where Black Swans can never strike. Indeed, it was notable how, after Superstorm Sandy hit with all its Black Swan fury, the FiveThirtyEight blog sought to deny that this rampant outlier of a tempest could sway many voters at all.

It would be an error to set up Taleb simply as the nemesis of Silver. The latter seeks to help us make better forecasts. The former, as his forthcoming book Antifragile will argue, offers ways to think and act that embrace risk and surf uncertainty, whatever the strength of any prediction. Nonetheless, I would love to see the pair debate. What are the chances of that?

via Boyd Tonkin: US election was a good night for the geeks – and a Tunbridge Wells cleric – Features – Books – The Independent.
HatTip to Dave Lull