Category Archives: John

Squawk Box Europe Debt Slashing Only Solution: Nassim Taleb

 

Airtime: Thurs. Jun. 10 2010 | :30:0 10 ET

“We have no other solution but to slash debt,” Nassim Taleb, author of ‘The Black Swan’, told CNBC Thursday. He discusses the outlook for the global economy with Bob Long, CEO, Conversus Capital.

Summary from Huffington Post:

Author and New York University professor Nassim Taleb told CNBC this morning reporters that the world’s debt problems were spreading “like cancer” — and worse than at the height of the recession.

“The situation today is vastly worse than two years ago. We had less debt then and more people employed then,” said the author of bestselling book, “The Black Swan.”

“Today we have more hidden risks to the system, more explicit risks, and on top of that we have a lower tax base. So explain to me [how] this remedy is going to work?”

Taleb blamed the U.S. government for spurring the growth of the “cancer” with remedies like stimulus packages, which he said only served to increase debt and unemployment.

“Obama promised us 8% unemployment after the stimulus,” he added.

Instead, he said, Western governments should follow Greece’s lead of slashing debt by belt-tightening, rather than shifting spending from the private to the public sphere.

Playing off the illness metaphor, a CNBC reporter asked Taleb whether he thought the US government would pass a second stimulus package given that “the politicians just can’t stomach another recession”.

“Unfortunately you may be right. They may not be able to resist giving the bad medicine.”

 

Videos Posted by NYU-POLY FRE: Interview with Charles Tapiero and Nassim Taleb

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pbtox7NyiW8]

NNT enters the conversation around 5:45 NYU-POLY is the school NNT chose to teach at.
iatrogenics http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iatrogenics

Interview with Morton L. Topfer Distinguished Professor and Department Chair Charles S. Tapiero and Distinguished Professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb .
Also on Facebook: www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=396575527762

New Yorker Video: Nassim Taleb on Risk and Robustness

For the inaugural video in the New Yorker Currents series, Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks with James Surowiecki about the causes of the 2008 financial crisis and the future of the economy.

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RadioOpenSource.org Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The “Fragility” Crisis is Just Begun

Christopher Lydon / Nassim Taleb telephone interview.

Link to source and synopsis.

3. On bailouts: My analogy is to the gambler who is now gambling with the trust fund of his unborn great-great-granchildren… Prudence should be the first thing on the agenda of governments, not speculation. Stimulus packages are speculation… We are gambling on a massive recovery. It’s too big a gamble, and besides it’s immoral.

2. In the economic crisis, and in the Gulf of Mexico, what we should be discovering is not who made what mistake, but the fact of fragility. Alas, what we don’t learn is… that we don’t learn.

1. No government can fortify something that’s inherently fragile.

ForumNetwork.org – Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Impact of the Highly Improbable

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Impact of the Highly Improbable

May 19, 2010 51:32

Nassim Taleb professor, writer

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, renowned expert on risk and randomness, discusses The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. This bestselling book is now out in paperback with a new essay, “On Robustness and Fragility.”

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

This lecture contains strong language.