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Tag Archives: uncertainty

Nassim Taleb: Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty | The James Altucher Show

The James Altucher ShowAltucher Show DescriptionEp. 45 Nassim Taleb: Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty (MP3 audio, 40.3 MB) September 23, 2014 11:53 AM Nassim Taleb, author of Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, joins The James Altucher Show to talk about technology and how different systems handle disorder.Just as humans evolve, technology is constantly being […]

The worst possibly unrigorous way to understand probability, risk, and uncertainty.

Timeline Photos – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

Fat Tails From Recursive Uncertainty

Technical but shows logic behind my comments that future tail events larger than past (BRL GER) via Twitter / nntaleb: Technical but shows logic behind ….

Just as when you mix pure and impure material…

Just as when you mix pure and impure material, the result is impure, uncertainty can contaminate certainty but never the other way around. When you multiply an uncertain variable by a certain number, the result is uncertain and not certain. If the multiplier is >1, the result is even more uncertain this is leverage, which […] – Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Impact of the Highly Improbable

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”